I find it fascinating that the Western narrative surrounding Yevgeny Prigozhin now emphasizes his virulent hatred of the Russian Ministry of Defense and portrays him as the Commander and “brains” behind the creation of the Wagner Private Military Company, aka Wagner PMC. Yet Prigozhin owes a significant portion of his financial success to his sweetheart contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Go figure.
I want to elaborate on my reasons for doubting the story that Prigozhin, on his own initiative, launched Friday’s mutiny with no coherent plan for toppling Minister of Defense Shoigu or Chief of the Army Gerasimov. He did not follow the normal coup script of seizing control of key communications and military nodes. Nope, he sauntered into Rostov on Don, some 700 miles south of Moscow, with a small band of followers and began making threats with no viable chance of being executed.
Oh yeah, almost forgot, he sent three thousand troops in a long convoy of trucks (at least 60) on a road trip to Moscow. Has anyone done the math on how long it takes to gas up a fleet of trucks like that midway through the journey? I am guessing a couple of hours at least. Then you have to factor in the potty breaks for the drivers (the troops can piss in a bottle). While the trucks are capable of traveling at speeds of 100 kilometers per hour or more, the reality of a convoy makes it more likely that the average speed is around 60 kph. That is why it would have taken that raiding party at least 20 hours to get to Moscow. After 20 hours in a cramped truck, with no luxury seating, do you think the Wagner boys would have been in shape to square off with Kremlin guards? The whole narrative is just ridiculous.
How about the timing of the uprising — it coincided with the end of a massive NATO military exercise. I bet several Western leaders popped some serious wood — their dream of vanquishing Putin was coming true. On the very day the exercise concludes Prigozhin decides he is General Pinochet and that Shoigu is Salvador Allende. Just a coincidence?
Then there is the contradictory Putin meme. Did you know that Vladimir Putin is a ruthless killer of his political opponents and those that betray him? Except for Prigozhin. Business Insider offers a list that is but a fraction of the deaths attributed to opponents of the Clintons, but hey, you got to give Putin credit for trying to keep up with Bill and Hillary:
- Pavel Antov – December 2022
- Ravil Maganov – September 2022
- Dan Rapoport- August 2022
- Mikhail Lesin- November 2016
- Boris Nemtsov- February 2015
- Boris Berezovsky- March 2013
- Natalia Estemirova- July 2009
- Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova- January 2009
- Alexander Litvinenko- November 2006
- Anna Politkovskaya- October 2006
- Paul Klebnikov- July 2004
- Sergei Yushenkov- April 2003
So why is Yevgeny Prigozhin still walking around as free as a bird? A comfy retirement in Belarus seems out of character with the Western image of Putin as a ruthless ruler who is alleged to routinely order a dirt nap for his opponents.
Given the hubbub surrounding Prigozhin I decided to take a look back at the evolution of Prigozhin’s media narrative. In 2012-13 he was described as a “chef” and leader of internet trolls:
In 2012-13, the Russian media began to pay attention to another ‘friend’ – Putin’s ‘personal chef’ Yevgeny Prigozhin. President of the Concordcatering company, Prigozhin also has other responsibilities: he is the man who set up a ‘trolling office’ (otherwise known as the Internet Research Agency) just outside St Petersburg, in which students are paid to write comments online, slandering the West and glorifying Putin. This ‘trolling office’ is run by people from the ranks of the largest pro-Kremlin youth movement in Russian history – Nashi. The organisation’s annual forum in Seliger has been attended at various times by Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev and several other senior officials.
Then, like a Russian version of George Jefferson, he moved on up to the big time. He snagged a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense:
‘He is in charge of supplying all army unit towns in the country. There are hundreds of these towns, maybe a thousand. I lived in one of them for many years.’
Prigozhin is also in charge of the housing, repairs and maintenance in these towns – as well as building new facilities, notably on the border with Ukraine.
‘One important detail: in this same period, he also becomes a Putin’s troll.
‘He is exactly the one who owns two famous troll factories in St Petersburg, located in Olgino and on Savushkina Street.
‘All those numerous pro-Putin comments are organised by Prigozhin’s company.’
December 20, 2016 we get one of the first reports linking Prigozhin to the Wagner Group:
The Treasury announcement said Prigozhin had provided financial, material and technological support for senior Russian defense officials, and has had extensive business with the Defense Ministry. That includes a company linked to him that has a contract to build a military base near the Russian border with Ukraine, the department said.
“Russia has been building additional military bases near the Ukrainian border and has used these bases as staging points for deploying soldiers into Ukraine,” the announcement said.
News reports have also linked Prigozhin’s employees to a shadowy private military contractor called ChVK Vagner.
The first report I can find describing the shadowy nature of the Wagner PMC appeared in June 2016 at the Russian site, Fontanka:
The FSB helped Fontanka discover that those involved in the security service of billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin were seen surrounded by the commander of a private battalion, Dmitry Utkin-Wagner.
On the morning of May 25 , Yevgeny Prigozhin’s motorcade was stopped on Universitetskaya Embankment . And for the first time, Evgeny Gulyaev, the head of the security service of the restaurateur closest to the authorities, a de facto monopolist in the army state order market in the field of military food, cleaning, construction and energy, got on video. According to Fontanka, former colleagues of Gulyaev, and now employees of the Concord Security Service, may be associated with an armed group operating in Ukraine and Syria, known as the Wagner PMC.
Prigozhin, notwithstanding his reported wealth, has zero experience as a military operator or commander. He knows how to provide Borscht and bread to Russian soldiers, but he is no von Clausewitz or Zhukov. Russian military intelligence, the GRU, reportedly is the brain and brawn behind the creation of Wagner PMC. I would love to hear an explanation of why the GRU would turn over full control of Wagner PMC to Prigozhin and let him run his own private army. I think that is nonsense.
I also note that Prigozhin’s links to the IRA troll enterprise is an intelligence activity. You at least have to entertain the possibility that Prigozhin’s role with Wagner PMC is Chief Troll and the target audience is the West, including intelligence organizations, the U.S. military and the media. The government and media obsession with Prigozhin and the activities of Wagner PMC while devoting almost no time to the real Russian Army and the Russian defense industry is beyond weird. Could it be that Prigozhin, as the mega Troll, is keeping the West distracted while the actual Russian war fighters go about the business of dismantling Ukraine’s NATO-supplied force? Worth considering.
The West wants to believe that Putin is weak and unpopular — I would note that not a single respected critic of Putin endorsed Prigozhin’s mutiny and that all political leaders across the breadth of Russia lined up behind Putin when the rest of the world was celebrating (prematurely) the demise of the Russian leader. Reminds me of one of the rules of fishing — once you know what the fish are hungry for you know what bait to put on the hook. Right? I am pretty sure that Russian intelligence officials understand that concept.
So I leave you with this question to ponder — is Prigozhin the real Slim Shady? Or does he have naked pictures of Putin and Trump cavorting at the Ritz Carlton? Is that why he does not sleep with the fishes?
I think we will not find out for a while exactly what happened here. It simply does not sound right. It was too simple, too quick, too nonviolent.
From the Russian point of view the important thing is that it was concluded quickly and likely without any negative effects on the SMO.
Some investment deals made at the SPEF may be cancelled – but Russia ought to be able to handle that.
Back to regular business. I am half expecting an unusual Russian move within the week.
Time will tell.
I suspect that, if it was maskirovka (of which I’m about 95% convinced) we’ll know fairly soon. Looking confused, weak, and unstable is not a good look for any government, domestically and internationally, and having your authority openly challenged by a few thousand goons and letting him get away is one heck of a way to look confused, weak, and unstable. So if it’s a scheme, I would expect that the follow up will take place fairly quickly (possibly in days or weeks, probably no more than a couple of months) and it will be huge and/or decisive. Russia will “win” big (whatever it might achieve) and there will be no doubt that whatever appearance of weakness and instability that it showed in the Prigozhin epsode was just an act meant only to distract, if, that is this is really a maskirovka operation.
Yesterday, Western media was filled with jubilant headlines about a Coupe against President Putin.
But in less than 12 hours NATO leaders went from celebrating the collapse of Russia to – OH SHIT!
So while NATO leaders watch their scheme to remove Putin crash and burn, the champagne was quickly stashed away and western media directed back to football and tities.
The Ukraine-NATO counter offensive is now decimated by losses.
NATO needed any kind of success for its Vilnius summit by the end of June.
Like making some of the BRICKs nations fold to western pressure during the Copenhagen summit.
A coup would also provide NATO with the an excuse to intervene in the war by letting the NATO air force exercise ”Go Live”.
However the entire coupe was hijacked and stage managed from the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group was invented by Russian intelligence and funded by the Russian Government.
Prigozhin got out of prison by joining the KGB to become the perceived leader of the Wagner Group.
Back in 2022, agents of Western intelligence began swaying Prigozhin about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let Kremlin know about the pitch and they decided to stage a counter inteligence OP that would present him as a disgruntled patriot launching vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov.
And even let him pass Intel on the locations of Russian troops to his handlers.
NATO took the bait and decided that Friday was the day of the second Russian revolution.
During the operation, Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic that this was a 1917 moment (with fingers crossed).
As ordered, Prigozhin sent a column of Wagner troops to Rostov on Don.
And a second Wagner Group was dispatched toward Moscow. Both groups were launched from the region of Belgorod, where the Wagner Fighters has resided since the fall of Bakhmut.
The “coup” was used by Kremlin to allow for the deployment of Russian forces to areas west of Voronezh without alarming NATO too much, that Russia was building up forces for a new offensive.
Simultaneously Wagner troops were divided and moved to the north and south, on a falls pretense.
Prigozhin convoy had no air cover, and would have been sitting ducks for Russian jets.
The Wagner group only got within 200 km of Moscow before they were stopped by “Police cars”.
The Kremlin waited 12 hours before sending police forces to the Wagner headquarters in St. Petersburg, where The FSB were lucky to find 4 Billion ₽ in Prigozhin´s office.
Putin’s speech during the coup was televised on RT well before Russia’s own state media.
The coup broke almost every rule in the book about mounting coups.
Why all this double crossing?
This was planned operation to flush out any 5th columnists inside Russia, and to delude NATO into thinking that now is the time to show its real intensions toward Russia.
Lots of sleeper cells was activate in Russia yesterday, and the FSB didn’t miss it.
Mikael Khodorkovsky was so excited about the Coupe that he published a video on his Telegram channel, praising Prigozhin and stressing support of his mutiny.
The Telegram channel was opened back in January 23, and never used until 1:28 PM CDT 24 June.
Obviously, the Telegram channel was launched with the purpose of using it to activate 5th columnists.
A screenshot of another media outlet was published on the Telegram channel, which during the day called Prigozhin’s troops for “fighters of freedom”, but a few hours later called them “terrorists”.
Yesterday, the US State Department also suddenly postponed its sanctions on Wagner leaders.
A Balkan portal published pictures from Rostov of people giving the Wagner soldiers roses. Maybe some of the soldiers let the cat out of the bag? (don’t worry folks, we’re just putting on a show for the MI6 and CIA).
After the Show, one could feel the frustration emanating from the Copenhagen BRICKS summit.
The complete silence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa speaks volumes.
Putin will likely go down in Russian history as one of Russia’s most brilliant rulers.
The “coup” was used by Kremlin to allow for the deployment of Russian forces to areas west of Voronezh without alarming NATO too much.
I read this a lot, but NATO are well aware of it and there doesn’t appear to be any attempt to capitalise on it. In other words it doesn’t appear to have been what some are suggesting.
“NATO is well aware of (Russian troops movements) and there doesn´t appear to be any attempt (by Russia) to capitalize on it”.
Im not so sure that NATO has pristine intelligence after the “Prigozhin coupe”.
Come to think about it:
Prigozhin will go down in Russian History as the Russian double Agent who managed to take the entire NATO command and its propaganda apparatus “for a Ride” between Moscow and Rostov on Don, and being paid handsomely for it.
Well said A.Dane – two days ago there was this:
Prigozhin is more than a double-agent, try triple-agent.
Maybe this was a put up job to put the talking heads, a major western media blitz, all and sundry, into a frenzy with well prepared explanations and video which swallowed the fake bits whole. This was coordinated “Information Warfare” intended to turn the Russian people. Russian intent possibly designed to flush out the Ukrainians with false optimism or, more likely, unearth enemy agents within. We shall see.
What a clever wheeze to crash the Russian state but was the West double-crossed?
Did Bank of England provide MI6 with the (QE) cash? [FCDO Foreign Aid budget?]
Sympathy for the Devil”……..Let me please introduce myself I’m a man of wealth and taste And I laid traps for troubadours who get killed before they reached Bombay.
Why is looking weak & unstable not a good look for a Government that does not care what the West thinks? Its a blessing to have Russia or any other enemy of the USA being underestimated. Thats how America lost every war since WW2.
Larry put it in another way a rabbit running in an open field while predators are tempted to show themselves. At the same time, the friends of that weak rabbit running across the open field have snipers waiting to kill the hunters who are strong enough to show their location. No disrespect meant.
“letting him get away?” For the moment. The Russians have an underlying plan of how to obtain justice and they are very patient until the time is right. Prigozhin need not think he pulled a “fast one” on Putin just yet.
Agreed. He, Progozhin will be effectively on house arrest until a strong case, beyond circumstantial evidence, for treason is completed. That may involve investigating communication with close contacts in Prigozhin’s self-agrandising ‘media team’ whilst in Ukraine past 18 months, as well as his funding ties from Western industrial manufacturing machinery for his rise to riches through catering – which was not funded through co-lateral from selling hot dogs. More, that we don’t know of.
If Prigozhin attempts to escape somewhere from Belarus, that might well be taken tantamont to a confession.
Very simple, rusians Wagner moves a lot of troops on the nose of NATO from a part to other. The rest will be seen furter!
Where is Dmitry Uktin in all of this? Isn’t he the actual head of Wagner?
> Russian MP Andrei Gurulyov says Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin should be executed. He says it live on Solovyov’s show: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/70887
I’m going to throw out my own wild ass theory: Utkin was the real power and Prigozhin was the front man. Only, P is a double agent. He just got caught up in all of this.
He’s exiled to Belarus now, supposedly nominally in charge of Wagner. We’ll only know his true intentions if/when he overthrows Luka and seizes of control of his nuclear weapons.
Another excellent article, following on the previous one. After I recommended my readers on News Forensics to read Larry’s last article I got a lot of positive comments. Seems most, in not ALL of MY readers like Larry’s take (and especially his humor)
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/prigozhin-russias-mad-fool-or-maskirovka?
Dmitry Utkin started Wagner (“Wagner” is his call sign) but he is regarded as a dangerous extremist — with Nazi inclinations. Russian policy has always been to use PMCs outside of Russia, in the case of Wagner, first in Donbass, then part of Ukraine — later in Syria and elsewhere. In the case of Wagner it was set up and controlled by the MoD and GRU but Utkin was too unstable so they settle on Prigozhin– the Caterer. And Cater he does. He was also previously a KGB asset. Definitely not a (dangerous) crazy like Utkin.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/120681924?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts
Simplicius spends quite a lot of time talking about Prigozhin’s “lies”. a.) these were OBVIOUSLY incorrect — for Russians — just not for the MSM. This bolster’s Larry’s thesis about this being “maskirovka”. b.) as Larry points out Prigozhin’s wealth comes in large part from his business catering for the MoD c.) Prigozhin clearly got everything he wanted – so did Putin — and so did the MoD for that matter, with renewed commitment by the Ukrianians and NATO to send more troops into the “grinder”. A question also arises whether Wagner forces in Belarus presage future operations from the Belarussian border into Ukraine.
Put Larry’s words above and Simplicius’s description of the lies, and it is pretty clear to me that the whole performance was aimed only at those who might believe the lies – Kiev and Nato (but MI6/CIA would be smart or at least and cynical enough to see through it so they weren’t running him).
Still the one big secret the West cannot say about the affair – the Russian media ran with every word of it.
Another potential scenario…
IF (a big if still). Perhaps part of the Russian intent for this multi-layered operation was to smoke out suspected moles throughout Russia. Such moles would have been programmed to emerge from the shadows as the “rebellion procession” spent 20 triumphal hours on the road to Moscow. The only way for that to happen is if the rogue political/black-ops level crowd thought they were in charge.
The Set Up: The ROGUE Soros/Nuland/Blinken/CIA/Mossad NeoCon Cabal concocts this confection involving loose-cannon Chef Prigozhen, not knowing how fully Priggy is playing both sides against the middle. Also, Priggy and some remaining Russian power players may have their own agenda within all that, a trick currently being played on the US gov’t/military and the Bribem administration by The NeoCon Cabal and its rogue elements in the CIA/FBI/State Dept. The failed Offensive(s), the Air Defence cluster**** and impending Vilnius ZATO meeting dictated the timing.
Russia’s ascendence to the world’s biggest/best military, and the rising China/BRICS economic tsunami also forced the NeoCon hand.
It appears the Nuland/Blinken/Soros Cabal are going for broke, without the support of the Rothschilds (Macron is trying to split EU military policy from the US/UK and maybe even ZATO). All that WEF blather, Plandemic fear-mongering and Huntergate media/legal noise was a useful smoke screen to operate behind, but eventually the guns and bombs must be brought to bear. Killing a few police and protesters in Red Square wasn’t going to work, so a bigger op was required. Imagine, Cookies Nuland ruling Russia via Priggy as puppet, with Freeland in charge (she turned down the ZATO chair) of her own Ukie-Nazi army to keep the EU in line and wag ZATO. In light of this WW3 “emergency”, Trudeau cancels the 2025 election and becomes life-dictator of disarmed Canada, and the NeoCons have most of the Northern Hemisphere under their control. All while the Bribem admin wanders about and Congress holds do-nothing hearings on who has the Constitutional power to control what the FBI/CIA and US military does.
If successful, this NeoCon Op fulfills the Great Chessboard objective of seizing the Euasian heartland and Russia, while the Rothschild Empire is crumbling under de-dollarization and the US/UK/ZATO is in unprecedented political/military disarray.
The NeoCons are anything but stupid, but are definitely believing their own propaganda. So Putin and his compatriots played them all, turning the Grand Rebellion into yet another debacle for the NeoCons. The NeoCons plan has been to covertly ride any bandwagon that is heading the way of World Domination, preparing to hijack said bandwagon when it’s too late to change its trajectory.
A Trojan Horse of a different Colour Revolution.
I guess with his share of the $6billion in military aid he can do whatever the hell he wants to.
KGB operates in Belarus and is maybe less „woke“ than FSB
Solovyov – actual name: Shapiro.
Just sayin’.
Prigozhin will have to answer for his men taking down those Russian choppers and whatever lives were lost for his gong show.
Were the helicopters taken down? Whatever angle I consider, it’s hard to believe – in the absence of clear evidence, of course. Why would the mercenaries have done it, and how, and where? If they did it once, why would the Russian air force keep putting aircraft in harm’s way? Why might the Russian government admit the losses, and so quickly?
There was a KA-52 that was apparently lost, if not a fake report, but also a Ilyushin transport aircraft with maybe 9 crew. I saw a video but then I saw a similar video when a similar aircraft under development had an engine fire and crashed some two-three years back.
There were reports of an air strike on a Wagner column. Prigozhin even used airstrikes as a pretext for his actions. Maybe someone’s nerves snapped? As for how, just look at the flood of weapons pouring into Ukraine. Why do you think Wagner doesn’t have anti-aircraft weapons, and the know-how to use them?
You missed one question, though: On whose orders were the helicopters and planes taken down (if that happened). Prigozhin says it wasn’t on his orders. He might be lying. He might be telling the truth.
Do you remember the Kiev Maidan? The violence started when someone shot at both police and protesters . Both sides blamed the other. Neither realized they were being played by a third party.
The same third party would be very interested to start such events in Russia. Once both sides are shooting each other in earnest, it’ll be really hard, impossible even, to calm things down again.
Someone with the necessary know how may have mixed in among the Wagner fighters, and started shooting down aircraft to get things started. Prigozhin claimed that the Russian army had been shelling Wagner forces. Just because the video he presented proved inconclusive doesn’t necessarily mean that the Wagners didn’t get shelled by someone they believed to be Russian army.
If there was a third party involved, it might even explain why the Russian government admitted the losses so quickly.
Your point about the orders is covered by the question Why?
Even the video of that airstrike on the highway is suspicious – Dima noted that it lacked any sign of incoming fire, and someone else pointed out that a soldier by the roadside reacted by walking away rather than running.
On your other point, about infiltrators with manpads, I can understand one or two helicopters getting hit, but not 6-7-8 according to current assertions. I’ve read they had a Pantsir system, so maybe that accounts for the high toll, but I still ain’t buying it.
The hazards, I suppose, of trying to penetrate the fog with a video lens.
Prigozhin had gone mad and rambo. With greater freedom, as his forces fought well for Russia, his underlying egotism, sociopathic narcissistic traits were able to emerge. A touch of PTSD from months of battle didn’t help, much less use of cocaine/stimulants adding to his paranoia distorted thinking. So obsessed over Shoigu and the Russian military not doing as he desired or give him massive credit he was was ripe by disruptive forces to embark on his extremely disloyal comments comments and his mad mutiny. I’d never believe Putin would approve of this event as it has had negative repercussions in his projection of a stable Russia. Though once the mad man embarked on, it there were moves to manage it in the best way and further moves made to capitalise on it.That would explain some quick revisions over what would be done as thinking through even better options.
Apparently most reports of craft shot from sky were flase, except for one: a surveillance aircraft with nine crew members aboard. |Wagner were not fireed upon. Prigozhin clams ‘it was all a mistake’ and that he ‘will pay compensation to the families of the deceased’. So that’s OK thenn, they should be happy enough to get money for the deceased ones, no justice required, and murder is not a crime if you pay for it with cash, the man infers.
I strongly suspect the Kremlin will want to get him into custody once removed from the invasion force and case for treason strengthened upon at present, mostly circumstantial evidence. Of course there exist his penultimate denouncement in public denying the murder of Donbass residents by Ukraine and just cause for SMO and such forth , supporting the Western narrative; they themselves point to motive. He might just say he truly believes it. But that hardly squares up with his fronting Wagner then lying about all sorts, and requesting extra ammo.
Prigozhin is now just 62 miles from Kyiv. So no “pissing in the bottle” for his troops on a short march. West was so happy they even froze sanctions against Prigozhin, casting him in the role of new Navalny, and here’s such a fiasco… Beware of what you wish for…
Or when Prigozhin stops the NATO “second front” in Poland coming to “colour revolution” Belarus — again.
Wagner is over as it was: MOD demands contracts with themselves, not PMC.
On this evolving situation, I am now leaning towards the Ritter/Martyanov position that Prigozhyn was turned by the English & Ukrainian intelligence services, as part of a western-backed/Kiev coup attempt.
The more that emerges seems to corroborate this position, in particular the recent arrests in Russia of Ukrainian spy/terror rings by the FSB (in particular on 12/13 June 2023 – note that these were Russians allegedly working as agents of Kiev), the close correlation between Prig’s unhinged statements and Ukrainian propaganda points, and the apparent timing of Progozhyn’s uprising to coincide with the Ukrainian counteroffensive leading to the NATO meeting in Vilnius on 11 July.
What seems to emerge is a plan for a Wagner uprising within Russia, combined with terror attacks in Russia and Moscow as Wagner forces approach the city, leading to panic and Putin’s downfall.
If true the plan was of course insane – but no more insane than the doomed counteroffensive, or indeed the Kharkova dam incident, Nordstream pipeline incident or western sanctions – note that all these initiatives share the same deluded assumptions of Russian weakness and western strength, a total inversion of reality that has inevitably led in all cases, to catastrophic failure. To me this strongly indicates planning by the same group of imbeciles.
If this is correct, I am also assuming that the Kremlin / FSB etc were listening in the entire time and has known full well everyone involved, including foreign actors. They waited and listened patiently, were ready for the uprising when it happened and put it down super fast.
As for Prig’s role, who knows. He was likely a bad actor in my view but could have also been working with the Kremlin, or for both sides. If he was a bad actor, he’s a dead man walking, as is anyone else directly involved.
If Moscow can prove that western backers are involved, it was a blatant act of war and of course, the eventual consequences will be extremely grave.
Of course the above may be incorrect – but that’s where I am at right now.
The way he spouted Collective West propaganda about the build up to Donbas Feb 2022 was very telling. It read like a Daily Telegraph editorial.
I don’t see why he would use that language unless he’d been told to by someone else?
Yeah, i agree with you. This was probably a completely legit attempt at regime change, likely organized with the help of Western intelligence agencies. I simply don’t buy this “maskirovka” stuff.
The idea of Prig being a double agent ties everything together – I like it.
I’m more or less in agreement, I suspect Prigozhin was asked his price and said $1or$2million a man, peanuts compared to Russias assets or the 15cents it costs to print $100 bills. Trucks loaded with pallets of $100 bills sent into Belarus secured by Lukashenko, for a fee, dispatched when the ‘coup’ began the ‘coup’ called off once the trucks were secured. The rants seemed to be directed at forming a resentful mind set in the musicians but really aimed at wests agents? Just a wag.
The rants reached the Russian public, aimed at them in seeking support for a coup, I have little reason to doubt.
He shot down a surveillance aircraft. Says it was an accident. Great launch a missile at a plane by accident? Maybe it was, because for the first time he was actually in command.
I think your take on this is most likely correct or at least partly correct.
A few points to clarify (I apologize if I’m insulting anyone here):
I think the idea that this was some kind of operation engineered by Putin and Prigozhin is dubious. There could be certain advantages to an operation like that, for example to reveal traitors in the Russian “system” or to trick the Ukrainians to do something rash, but in my opinion the cost is far too high in relation to the reward. This affair is a major disaster for Putin – it’s humiliating and reeks of weakness – both inside and outside Russia. It’s actually not a sign of weakness considering how fast it was dealt with, but it can be treated as weakness by Russia’s enemies – which is what matters. That’s incidentally what they are doing now. No leader shows weakness for limited gains or at all, especially not Vladimir Putin.
There have been theories that the whole thing was a trick to move troops to the Karkhov/Sumi axis or to Belarus. Those theories are outright idiotic. Does someone really think that NATO surveillance assets will go blind just because Prigozhin is making trouble or that troop movements during the coup become somehow irrelevant to NATO? “Well, let’s just watch Rostov and Moscow and forget about everything else, eh?” This idea is nonsense.
I think it’s clear that this was for real. Prigozhin said before heading to Rostov that everyone who tried to stop him would be eliminated and then they engaged Russian forces they came upon. They even shot down helicopters and a surveillance plane. This was a hostile operation, not some theater. You don’t shoot down everything that takes off from Rostov airport if you’re doing a theater production. I think these planes were shot down to provoke the Kremlin to react.
People don’t seem to understand the “march for justice” on Moscow. How could a few thousand (or hundreds) soldiers take control of Moscow and stroll into the Kremlin? Obviously, since they wouldn’t have been able to do that, it wasn’t a real operation. That’s also faulty logic. The goal of the Moscow road trip was almost certainly to NOT get there. It was a suicide mission – to provoke Putin to attack them and turn the situation into running battles on Russian soil – and in Moscow’s outskirts on top of that. Those soldiers were unwitting kamikaze troops.
What was Prigozhin actually doing in Rostov? He just sat there drinking coffee, chatting with whoever wanted to sit next to him. Why would he do that? He did that because that’s what you do when you are waiting for something. Prigozhin was waiting for something to happen – that was the reason he was in Rostov relaxing, guarded by his troops.
What was Prigozhin waiting for? I think he was waiting for a “pivot event” that was supposed to happen. This event could have been an organized terrorist campaign in Moscow carried out by Ukrainian Intelligence. There are indications the FSB stopped something like that from happening. I suspect the plan was as follows:
As the Wagner troops fight their way toward the capital, there’s total chaos inside Moscow itself. There are bombings, shootings and actual battles in the outskirts. Things are looking out of control. The Russian people and the Russian Army are paralyzed, which is incidentally what the Ukrainians and NATO defined as a prerequisite for a breakthrough in their offensive.
Someone in the Kremlin or outside the Kremlin but inside the system comes forward and says: “Things are out of control – we must reassure the people and the army – it’s time for change. Let’s make peace with Prigozhin and get things under control, but it would be better if you stepped aside for a while Mr. President.”
Perhaps that wasn’t even the plan – perhaps this was just to weaken Putin and the Russian state and cause command paralysis in the Russian Army so the Ukrainians could break through. There has been rumor in Ukraine for weeks that something big would happen between June 20 and June 30. Perhaps this was it.
I think the whole thing fell apart because the pivot event failed to materialize. Progozhin just sat drinking coffee in Rostov and nothing happened. That must have been disappointing for him. But anyway, Prigozhin got a deal in the end, just not the one he was hoping for.
Anyway, this is what the whole things looks to me, for all that’s worth.
Great comments.
Yes – I think Prig was expecting other things to happen simultaneous with his move towards Moscow. None did, likely because of the work of the FSB (there is probably a lot of stuff they were doing that we have no idea about), but also because he may have somehow convinced himself that the people and military would rise up with him.
McGregor argues that this was the action of one man (Prig) , a sort of spontaneous protest as opposed to a rebellion. Maybe, but as I posted above there is a lot of credible evidence that this was a long-planned event, with Prig just one if the main actors. I think it points to a major effort by western actors, Kiev and anti-Putin actors within Russia to take down the government. I forgot to add that in light of what happened, Prig’s outrageous demands for more ammo in Bakhmut now look highly suspicious.
Also, I note that Putin himself specifically mentioned ‘western patrons’ in his speech this evening, referring to what went on. Therefore, I can’t really agree with McGregor on this occasion.
The other issue is how much the Kremlin knew about the coup. Just because we were all shocked and surprised when it happened, doesn’t mean Putin was. I simply can’t accept that the Kremlin was unaware of what was happening a while back – their intelligence is just too good. So, my starting position is that they (FSB and SVR, possibly Belarus Intel services as well) were fully aware of the plan months ago. It was in their interests to let it unfold, work out the main players etc, make sudden arrests of conspirators where required, until the last possible minute. Putin knew about it as well but did not tell anyone – including Shoigu, Gerasimov etc.
It’s also perfectly plausible that the Kremlin may not have been able to predict the exact timing of Prig’s move, but knew it was coming and had planned for it (which seems to be the case btw).
If that’s the case, what emerges is the Kremlin being far more in control of 90% of events as they eventually unfolded, but of course not able to control the 10% ie the shooting down and killing of Russian helicopters/pilots (which sadly I am certain did happen) that were hyped up by the media etc.
What happens now? Well, I notice Putin specifically mentioned ‘western patrons’ in his speech. This signals that the Kremlin knows more about the arrangements for the coup than they’re revealing.
As for Prig, too many are saying he has not been punished. I don’t agree at all. The man has been exiled from Russia and as I see it, he’s only alive because it’s been decided that killing him isn’t in Russia’s best interests right now. Imagine that fate. Put it this way, Prig won’t ever be able to sleep safely again, and I suspect we soon won’t hear much/anything from him.
Like I said, could be wrong. Let’s see what happens.
Excellent view, accords with my own.
I suspect Prig had strings attached by suppliers of western (USA) monopolist catering industrial machinery that no money can buy as colateral for loans, and certainly not from successful hot dog stands. As a son of Jewish father it’s possible he was never a Russian patriot and even a Talmudic Russia-hater. However, that’s not necessary for treason -= globalist monopolist business also detaches a person from any true allegiances to culture or nation.
This has been my view almost exactly from the beginning.
With the same questions waiting to be answered over time.
IMHO Prig will be held under psychiatric house arrest in Kiev
until his debriefing is fully digested.
There may be real need to know more about who shot down the planes.
Obviously, no Russian blood was supposed to be spilled.
The Maidan shooting version makes sense to me.
Then decisions about Prig’s fate
will be made.
Meanwhile, Wagner though nearby is no longer his.
Putin is expert at folding in assets held by outsize oligarchs.
Oligarchs either cooperate or they don’t.
Either they are patriots or they are “entrepreneurs.”
Another top notch article! You are a wonderful writer, Mr Johnson.
Applause for you!
I second that emotion … !!
For sure! Makes you wonder why our “intelligence community” maybe won’t take time to read and digest this. Oh, looking at the latest school test scores, maybe they can’t read.
Somewhat humorous how the land of the soap opera and Sesame Street 2 minute, quick pop gratification got suckered by a not-so-obvious, yet not so hard to figure out, plot. Played like a cheap fiddle while Ukraine folds like a cheap bridge table.
With Wagner on Kyiv’s doorstep, they’ll have a big hard-on thinking Wagner will take over Belarus. We’d be better off with Forrest Gump in charge instead of the 3 stooges (Biden, Blinken and thouroughly modern Milley) while NATO does a reprise of the Keystone Cops..
I agree with you on the topic of maskarovka – slight of hand, full distraction and judging by the American news programs today it looks like they took the bait
I nvr used to watch fox,cnn or bbc ( nor cbc or ctv here in Canada) but its good for a laugh these daze to see what they’re peddling
For what it’s worth, here’s my opinion:
A POSTMORTEM OF THE PRIGOZHIN PUTSCH
In my previous article, which I wrote when the March On Moscow was still going on, I had explicitly compared it to the Kornilov Coup of 1917. If anything, 24 and a bit hours after it ended, the comparison is more apt than ever. Consider:
1. Both Prigozhin and Kornilov would never have carried out their coup attempts unless they had reason to believe that they had substantial support in the capital. Kornilov thought he had been asked by Kerensky to purge Petrograd of all the revolutionary groups and “restore order”. Prigozhin, you can be absolutely certain of this, could never have believed he and his 8000 or so men* would have been able to capture power or even impose terms such as the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov unless he thought he had substantial support in the capital and the government. It is not possible.
2. In both cases the movements fizzled as participating troops dropped out and the support failed to materialise.
3. Both Kornilov and Prigozhin could well be deemed guilty of high treason, but both were let off with a slap on the wrist (in Prigozhin’s case it can’t even be called that).
[*Just 8000 of the at least 33000-strong Wagner took part in the March On Moscow, and it appears most of those 8000 didn’t even know what they were really doing. They thought they were being redeployed. And all of them are now to be brought under the Ministry of Defence (MoD), not punished in any way.]
The question I want answered is this:
How is it possible, is it at all credible, that the MoD didn’t know what was happening?
Wagner was set up with the help of Russian military intelligence, GRU. It is staffed with regular military and GRU officers, and most of its troops are former regular soldiers, not the “convicts with shovels” fantasies of the Westernaganda. Its so called “deputy” commander, General Mizintsev, was into very recently logistics commander in the Artëmovsk front before overnight turning into a Wagner top officer. Its Soledar and Artëmovsk field commander, call sign Lotus, is a former regular officer who’s fought in Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic before this. Neither Lotus nor Mizintsev participated in the putsch; the only known Wagner leader bar Prigozhin who did was the shadowy Dmitri Uktkin, who may actually be Prigozhin’s boss.
So how is it possible that the MoD didn’t know what was in the offing?
Simple answer: it could not have not known. It is a sheer impossibility.
That’s apart from the video now going around from a few weeks ago of an interview between the Russian military blogger Wargonzo (real name Simën Pegov) and Prigozhin where the former outright tells Prigozhin that the MoD is restricting Wagner’s ammunition to prevent it from conducting a coup in Moscow. The MoD knew, all right.
So why didn’t it do anything about it?
Many people online are operating on the assumption that this proves this was a coordinated farce between Putin and Prigozhin. I have no reason to believe that, simply because the same thing could have been achieved without any “coup” attempt. The only other explanation I can think of is that the coup was permitted to go ahead, and fizzle, to put Wagner under the MoD, just what Prigozhin had been resisting all along.
There is a fourth similarity to the Kornilov Coup I’ll predict:
105 years after the Kornilov Coup we still don’t know for sure what happened.
We won’t find out this time either.
Why did Prigozhin have to shoot down EW planes and helos ?
Very good question if this was only a show why did all those aircraft get shot down, or did they.
Because from Prigozhin’s PoV the coup was real.
Perhaps they were shot down in the business of the SMO? and like so many other “battles” etc. get attributed to something else.
a) Grunts on both sides weren’t told it was fake, took initiative
or
b) “Russians” in new uniforms did it
Apparently shooting down the Ilyushin was a “mistake”.
Most likely you are right. Of course there had to be pledged support. And I also don’t believe that the coup attempt took anyone in the Kremlin entirely by surprise. CNN says even US intel was on top of it. The problem is that many times you have to let the thing start rolling to catch the whole net. This is what usually happens in aborted coups. Most likely when Putin came to speak to the population, some were already being interrogated. Most likely the trap was not to catch who many think. Like Shoigu or Gerassimov. Two of the highest figures in Russia’s defense. For a long time, Wagner had shown that it was unable to fight alongside the regular forces. As I was not used to many missions abroad. Enough to split Russian forces in half in the middle of a war. Something had to be done. And Prigozhin apparently thought the same and ran badly to his side. And by the looks of Utkin. Not by chance. It was the business at hand. It’s human nature.
P.S. Troop transport trucks often have a range of over 1,000 km. The Ural shot down has a range of 1,000 km as standard. Probably with some extra deposit. In addition, military convoys usually travel with tanker trucks.
Biswapriya Purkayastha is very knowledgeable about Russian events, so I will post my opinion below his post. Here is my theory, which is based on the experience of participating in the Bosnian war. In Bosnia, there were many “little Prigozhins” on all sides, who were almost identical – unpredictable, vain, eager for publicity, paranoid, in fear that someone wants to “destroy” them, unwilling to respect hierarchy and legal state institutions, self-promoters …
So, my theory is that Prigozhin was told even before the fall of Bakhmut that on July 1, Wagner would have to be incorporated into the Russian MoD, not only logistically, but also in terms of command coordination. Then begins Prigozhin’s tirade, attacks on Shoigu and the MoD, daily briefings on daily progress in square meters, while the Russian army allegedly abandons positions on the flanks of Bakhmut.
After the capture of Bakhmut, while there is much talk of the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Prigozhin publicly announces that his troops will withdraw on “vacation”. Even when going on vacation, it is not announced publicly, especially since it is a unit that inspires awe in the enemy. It was as if Prigozhin wanted to tell the Ukrainians: Since June 1, my soldiers are not on the line, you are free to strike.
Indeed, on June 4, three days after Wagner surrendered his positions to the regular Russian army, the Ukrainians began a long-announced counteroffensive. My opinion is that Prigozhin wished for the collapse of the Russian defense lines, so that he could tell everyone “See, I was right, the MoD is run by incompetents”. Perhaps he counted on Shoigu to send Surovikin to kneel before him and ask for forgiveness and announce that Wagner could continue as before.
Unfortunately for Prigozhin, the Russian army (without the help of Wagner) responded fantastically to the Ukrainian offensive, crushing the Ukrainians and their Western weapons. Even the best resistance was offered by the units that Prigozhin despised the most. Prig is desperate, in public appearances he tries to create a parallel reality, that the Ukrainians are progressing, that the Ministry of Defense of Russia is lying (“one morning we will wake up and they will tell us that we lost Crimea”). While he publishes fake news about the places occupied allegedly by Ukrainians, at the same time the fighters of the Russian army from the front line send pictures that he is lying.
July 1 was approaching, Prigozhin had too little time and options left to do something, that’s why the amateur coup attempt happened.
Your comment seems sound. Add that, as you mentioned, his cash cow was about to disappear, as well as his drama platform. Some of his other contracts for military supply may have also been about to terminate.
Wouldn’t be too hard for Western intelligence to whisper in his ear that if he launched a coup, they would be there to back him up and had allies in the wings from the military and government, and that they would be happy with him as the new ruler of Russia.
I absolutely agree with your assessment. And I notice you do not mention foreign intelligence services involved with Prigozhin. I believe this is because there is no evidence for it and the details you laid out describe the psychology of Prigozhin and that in-between the lines you are saying Prigozhin did this all on his own. Others try to take your assessment and add,without evidence mind you, that foreign intel services were involved. Does anyone really think that a man like Prigozhin can be trusted. I tend to think that foreign intel services would find him unreliable, untrustworthy, and unpredictable which would make him to risky to deal with. One reply actually made the argument that foreign intel services would help him become President of Russia. C’mon, he would be uncontrollable and probablyturn on any foreign intel groups the moment he became President.
Any chaos is good for the enemy, and Prig. dethroning Putin would be desirable (anybody, really).
Good analysis of the character. I think it goes further though, though true. Consider his position as a major contractor to the state (schools and military), offering monopolistic catering machinery. That sort of machinery, unbeknown to the Russians in those days who called the West our partners’ is not bought – it’s offered with strings attached by globalists.
Even his ‘Internet Research Agency’ is suspect as being his ‘own idea’; he owns it in Russia, but was given the idea I suspect, to aide the Clintons in holding back Trump, providing evidence for attempted election meddling. Also, his being on the FBI wanted list is just the sort of thing you could use a s front.
It’s early days re Prigozhin’s fate. With a serious war going on, the immediate task for Putin was to shut down the coup/mutiny with as little violence as possible, not to lock up Prigozhin.
Had serious violence started between Wagner and RF forces, it could have rapidly escalated with unpredictable consequences, particularly if Western sabotage groups were ready to amplify.
Whatever supposed “deal” with Progozhin was necessary to that end was appropriate. It will be subsequently revoked when evidence is produced that Prigozhin was actually in league with Western agencies to conduct the coup. Even if Prigozhin was not, I am sure Russian security can be just as creative as the FIB in producing the evidence necessary for their case.
Yes. Or perhaps the tax office will find some fraudulent returns or an MoD audit uncovers irregularities on a contract for spuds or something, and they will extradite him back to Moscow to face these charges, which are not covered by his agreement with Vlad the Invader to drop the treason case.
One should never underestimate the creativity of the authorities trying to fit someone up – I think Mr Trump would agree.
Time will tell, and we live in very interesting times.
Good thinking, largely agree with you reasoning. But concerning placement of |Wagner personnel under MOD, MOD had already issued Order that Wagner personnel henceforth had to sign contracts with MOD. And Wagner officers were largely seconded from Russian military, and took orders from MOD ( I shoul dalso consider the speculation that exists about Prig’s Concord mercenaries.. but nontheless..).
Prig may have resisted that Order, and got some personnel to do so, but not all, maybe very few. Maybe less than went on the hike to Rostock.
I give up trying to play Kremlinologist. That’s harder than understanding women.
Like how does a violent foul mouthed felon get all these sweetheart deals from Russias elite? Seems like Putin would give them to old hands in KGB (Checkists like he is) especially running a paramilitary org.
Whole thing make no sense.
It could be with human fallibility that sever threads or ideas are intertwined. People were likely working with a bunch if different plans with incomplete info, and things evolved as each actor had improving info.
Prig was probably playing with a number of scenarios and was ready to jump to the plotline that suited him at each moment in question.
I think for sure NATO was in contact with him, as were others on the Russian side. His survival relies now on being able to convince Russian spooks that he was always stringing NATO on.
“I give up trying to play Kremlinologist. That’s harder than understanding women.”
I agree. It’s been said that there are two different theories for understanding women. Neither of them work.
Well, there are at least 100 theories explaining all of Prigozhin’s actions over the last 48 hours, and none of those work either. If only Escher were still alive, he could make this into a fantastic drawing.
Prigozhin is an illusion: he does not belong to this world. The guy is from nowhere and nobody, spends nine years in prison, becomes no less than a billionaire, is supposed to have wrecked almost alone the election of Hillary Clinton, and puts the Russian flag on Bakhmut after one of the fiercest and bloodiest battle in recent (and not so recent) history. No writer (not even Tolstoy or Dostoyevsky) can create such a character: therefore he does not exist.
And this illusion can be tested: put him, like every other billionaire, in a fragile yellow submarine and let him sink nearby the Titanic — if he pops up unharmed the day after, this will prove that he cannot die, and thus that he does not exist.
“That’s harder than understanding women.”
High five on that one!
Kremlinologists are like Astrologists. They tell customers what they want to hear, and take their money. All the mumbo-jumbo pseudo-scinece behind it, is just Tarot cards shuffling with extra steps. It’s all maskirovka.
Excellent analysis, but I might add that Prigozhin launders some of his wealth gleamed from the Russian government back to his benefactor Putin.
Hey, Bob, – easy in the road curves (as we say in Russian), buddy! Do you have any proof of your blatant accusation of Putin? Or do you measure him by Mr. Narco-Ze that is sponsored by your gov-t? Not ALL leaders are corrupt and that is why they are SO admired by their people! It is not like in the west (where I happen to be presently living after immigrating from the USSR long ago). Took me a while to understand and ACCEPT that from afar but the truth is that it is the truth, so don’t spew dirt when you have no backing to your words!
Both Putin and Prigozhin are great patriots and devoted to their country and people. And both are the best that happened to Russia – each in his own way.
No need to yell at these guys Galina! Thinking people get your point….. I commented here.
I was born in USA but agree with you 100%.
Russia is in a different T league now, doesn’t mean that there are some dirty people around but generally the people emulate the actions of a leader.
Russian peoe have been blessed to have Putin.
He saved Russia
Galina, I have lived in Russia I can’t say more. I have 3 degrees one is psychology based. These people do not understand the psychology of power. People like Putin or Prigozhin I believe have enough money to buy anything they want. Not all as are greedy about money as say Zelensky who has DNA in that respect. Many very rich, I call them narcissists care only about what thrills money can give them like the Stockton Rush of the Titan submarine incident. I was in Russia during the 90s. To me, it was clear Putin & most of his then-secret national security team understood what the West had in mind after the illegal bombing of Yugoslavia, practice for Russia. Putin wanted to put an end to the Western plan for Mother Russia. Not doing that when he took over could have netter him several billions yet he refused. People in the West don’t understand such things as the Russian soul or legacy. Russia is 1000 + years old Putin & his type could not sell Russia out. Many Russian Jews did, but some like Zhirinovsky did not. Westerners are psychology trained, and brainwashed to be individuals, hence it’s easy to betray your own, in collective societies the mindset is much harder to breach Individualism Western style is the seed that destroys themselves you can bet
History will have a special place for Putin.
There will be no place on that podium for the likes of Bush, Clinton, Blair, Obama,Biden.
JFK might make it to that podium. But for that to happen the American people have to find the inner strength to find out (and show to the world) exactly what happened to him. Then the world will start trusting America again.
Don’t have high hopes for that to happen – I am sad to say.
Evidence?
CIA or Mi6?
I don’t think so.
Putin is doesn’t need it, the money or the problem. Very much out of character for him. He may not be “squeeky kleen” but I don’t picture him dipping into a till when he has everything he needs.
Just not the type.
Projecting much? You forgot to add crack smoking, and whores, and Corvettes, Binden style.
The big open question is whether Prigozhin goes alone to Belarus, or whether he goes accompanied by many of the Wagner Group fighters who do not sign contracts with the Russian military?
If significant Wagner combat capabilities end up in Belarus close to Kiev, then we will know that all of this theater was planned, and that Prigozhin was playing a role in a Russian operation.
From today’s purported news, (military summary),3 barracks for 8000 troops each are planned in Belarus. That’s 24000 troops.
We have our answers.
Prigozhin will have a new business contract with Lukasjenko and the sacked Wagnerites will come dropping in one by one, new weapons available. When up in strength and Zelensky has fled to his beach house in Miami Prigozhin will be installed in Kiew with his pretorian guard.
Prighozin is a wily old boy, and there’s no chance he went on a suicide run to Moscow. Putin knew, and knew that Prighozin was to be paid after the “coup” got confirmed in the media, Putin had confirmed it himself and had ordered up a few (fake?) explosions. When the cash hit the account, the “coup” got cancelled.
Classic honeypot used to screw foreign agencies fomenting coups. Hitler did it more than once against the British. They finally stopped trying.
That is my take as well, this coup attempt was lame but after Jan 6 we have our panties in a bunch, and we want Putin’s downfall sooo badly we are blind. Also after Putin’s egg on the face with the Minsk agreements it is time for a little payback.
I thinks it’s hilarious, the set up is a master chess move, in the works for months. If true we will never see or hear what actually happened. Letting the west save face would also fit. Double sting.
Add to that Prighozin is now a hop, skip, and a jump from Kiev.
Lucky Priggy was not at the capitol Jan. 6, 2021. Nancy would have run him up the river.
The IRA as an intelligence operation targeting the West is a Western MSM meme.
Show me a single case of IRA trolling which is not just click bait, with no chance of influencing political discourse in the West.
Yevgenii should have read this this :
https://www.amazon.com/Coup-d%C3%89tat-Practical-Handbook-Revised/dp/0674737261/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2JXK1ZNINQWZW&keywords=luttwak&qid=1687746357&sprefix=luttwak%2Caps%2C235&sr=8-1
Utkin, has the military and GRU backround and is the force commander. He is loyal to Prigozhin by all reports I’m aware of. He was leading one of the columns, by reports the only officer who came out with Prigozhin.
Reports are that the most of the ‘Musician conductors’ (officers) and rank and file stayed in camp. Reports indicate also that at most, 3000 turned out while the rest stayed in camp. No RG, local police, local or otherwise, officials joined.
The only way this is a rational act, by a rational and sane actor is as Maskirovka, as far as I can understand.
If Yevgenii and Utkin don’t have an unfortunte helicopter crash*, or such, in Belarus, or Africa, or somewhere; if there aren’t some personnel changes, shifts, untimely accidents across imporatnt RF posts over the next few weeks to years’ end, well then maybe it was staged.
There is a lot of planning involved to pull something like this off. The ammo- fight earlier this year between Prigozhin and MOD could be explained as a ruse to stockpile ammo for the coup, as one example. Waiting until the ‘Musicians’ were pulled off-line for rest and refit, puts them behind the army engaged at the front, essential tactical starting point. Waiting until the ukronazi ‘great offensive’ ensures the army is occupied, good tactical decision
The informational ground was prepared with the gloom and doom OTAN talking points that Yevgenii was ranting about this year with the mismangement and corruption at MOD.
Waiting until the wunderwaffen pussykatten panzer charge broke thru the first line of RF defenses could have been the trigger. Yegenoii warned us! Now he will go to Moscow and arrest the traitors at MOD who ignore his profound advice and right the ship of state to repel the threat! Might even take on more responsibility!
Sounds like a plausible strategy – but the pussykattenpanzers were blown-up and scattered back to thier litter boxes, cowering among the scattered scat. The ukronazis couldn’t break thu the forward positions, let alone reach the first line and had to scale down attackes and announce a ‘nap time’ until they van find some more 16 year old to press gang. Why did Yevgenii still do it?
This will take some time to play out.
*https://www.irishtimes.com/news/death-of-lebed-in-crash-may-have-been-sabotage-1.1086774
That was about Lebed in 2002.
Today the issue is No To NATO.
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2023/06/26/irish-anti-war-movement-and-politicians-call-for-a-referendum-on-neutrality/
An it was NATO back then too.
What is the story of the planes and helicopters the “mutineers” supposedly shot down?
True or false?
Robert:
It seems there is no hard evidence of this.
I can’t see Putin letting Prig off the hook for killing up to 30 well trained heli pilots and crew plus the highly trained coup of the recon aircraft.
Plus the cost of those craft.
Videos and allegations abound but where and when were those videos actually taken?
Has any real footage of the wreckage been proven?
It’s like at the beginning of the SMO the west were showing “video” of Russian aircraft destroyed and they were being defeated already.
One of those images showing a “shot down Russian jet” was a still photo taken from the Star Wars Battlefront computer game.
When the image was enlarged we can clearly see 2 stormtroopers in the white armour.
But the western media never report on how dumb their political masters are when they have been exposed like with the Star Wars photo, they cover for them by staying silent and move onto the next lie.
Personally I just think Wagner would not have fired on and shot down 3 advanced Russian helicopters.
These alligator choppers were running rings around Ukie forces in the counteroffensive with no losses and then Wagner manages to get 3 of them?
I think it was manufactured for western audiences that something big was happening.
Did the mutaneers shoot those aircraft down?We cannot account for all of the stingers sent to Ukraine more than a year ago.Did they find their way to Russia?
I think Progozhin took the drug of money, power, influence and has dependence. He entered on the ground of big military and started to be too greedy thinking the SMO will be adapted to its aims. He started to be nervous ending April due to 6 months contact ended. He obtains another month and once again making star hysteria. He did not understand he cannot order to the Russia army. So, he makes a bad move thinking he can blackmail the army. I do not buy the idea of Putin black-ops. I do not see what could be the Putin’s gain, valuing such a risky adventure. My opinion, he was all his life a tool for the real power, without having a “bright” brain and he choose the wrong way to deal with the army leaders to impose his “lobby”. Very possible he based his action on “help” from outside Russia. He acted like an “oligarch” willing to play the “high rank general” and now is fu..ed. If FSB has solid data on dealings with the NTAO side he will not drink tea with Lukasenko for long time. Blackmailing Putin,…. no, he would be dead long ago.
Larry’s exposure of Prigozhin’s past in Army food and maintenance procurement, Intelligence, and troll farms, among other things is epic. If this is accurate, everything we have heard about Progozhin from every source, both pro Ukraine and pro Russian is simplistic nonsense. I’m sure much can be attributed to propaganda, but for the rest (including the alt media)who imply integrity and objectivity it clearly shows they are lazy gossipers or click bait parrots having no idea of the real story.
you forgot the Casinos which is how he first came into contact with Putin who worked for Sobchak in the St Petersburg authority licensing casinos………..
This was staged. I’m in Chile, this was covered in our mainstream media, and, untill this point, nothing about the Ukraine-Russia war covered in our mainstream media has been true, so this had to be staged. In our media, Ukraine is winning.
Cheers!
Of course it was staged. And a good chunk of the Russian population was in on it. There’s two aspects to it, not too hard to figure out:
1. There was something going on at a very high level that we’re not privy to. Probably some game between the intelligence services.
2. There is an attempt by Russia to shift the fighting from the south to somewhere else.
That’s it. Eveyone’s focusing on number one when they should be focusing on number two.
Larry, could I respectfully comment on some of your words? Here’re my 2 cents:
1. Prigo is not Zhukov indeed BUT he does not have to and does not pretend to be. He is a manager and brilliant one at that. THAT is what Wagners need. The best fighters and military commanders they have plenty and they operate independently of each other but in collaboration and are very successful in their “work”. After all, they all are graduates of the Russian military. What Prigo gives them is peace of mind about everything else, mainly the steady supply of logistics – that is his business. That is why he is going to tear apart anyone who prevents him from fulfilling his obligations to “his boys”.
2. I don’t know about “naked Trump” and other western leaders but Putin is a VERY RELIGIOUS and morally wholesome person, a family man – another reason Russian people admire him for.
3. Prigo is not the only one who has a foul mouth – Putin has 2 “guard dogs/bad cops” – did you forget Medvedev? Each of them is allowed to “tell it like it is”, i.e. like the PEOPLE love them to say it. Something that always calm and careful with his words Putin could never say (but would REALLY love to say it sometimes, like with the infamous “хрен” that is SO mistakenly and literally taken as a weird “horseradish” by the westerners!)
To understand the “game” here you have to understand Russian culture, history and traditions – namely, that every Tsar (as Putin is lovingly called in Russia) had a court clown – usually a cripple who was allowed to say everything openly to the tsar without considering repercussions even if the tsar REALLY did not like what he was hearing. That was the “voice of the people” and THAT is one of the best traditions for the “batiushka-tsar” to know what his people were thinking and whether his close surrounding were lying to him (as they always do). A reminder from the recent history – Putin’s meeting with his war correspondents – without his military and other officials.
My remark about naked pictures was a joke. I hold Putin in high regard. He is a historical figure.
26 Juin 2023
Dear Larry, your narrative humor is so pertinent and so truly descriptive, that I was surprised no one had reacted to the joke about Putin and Trump.
Your Humor is like Watterson Calvin and Hobbes kind of humor !!
And certainly, I hope everyone here knows that Hobbes is not a real Tiger !!
Now ! what is a Masquerade? in every language is a ‘farce with which is intended to deceit’.
The important thing about masquerades is that it is a true role-playing game, the characters are not actors who pretend to follow a script.
The mask hides the true face and the true face hides another true mask, but behind this true mask there is no face at all…
We are lucky if we can attend a Venetian Masquerade, the most beautiful and colorful one!
But for now we only have a Russian Masquerade !
Sigh ! of relief !
@Galina . Something very disturbing is going on at RT (at least the English channel) .
A report on new Russian Culture :
” Sex, blood and patriotism: The Ukraine conflict has ushered a new wave of Russian music and it’s here to stay
How the fighting in Ukraine has influenced Russia’s music scene ”
here a possible link ;
https://swentr.site/russia/578511-sex-blood-patriotism-wartime-music/
This appeared during the “coup”.
This looks just like western culture. What the hell is going on?
“What the hell is going on?”
Nothing, except clickbait titles. All big countries have diverse musical scene. You can pick whatever you want, and make up any narative. “Western culture” is not separate entity from “Russian culture”, in spite of recent attempts in the west to make it so.
In times of war, there is always a rise in patriotic songs.
Shaman has an excelent voice. Would recomend.
And Martyanov asks why has RT editor Simonyan not been on TV since then?
The list of 5th and 6th columnists would make interesting reading!
I don’t think there would be many surprises on it, if any.
I would say that most of 5th columnists already fled the country. Few months ago, Lukashenko talked about that to Putin. He said that he has experience with that, and explained to him that it is a good thing. He was right. It turned out that they can not betray Russia from abroad, regardless of ammount of Twitter/Telegram posts.
6th columnists tend to be loudmouths that run to the shelter first when things get tough. Strelkov guy has been barking non-stop for years, but I did not see him man-up and join this discount revolution.
P.S. Since this was about music at first, here is some Russian-Western patriotic music:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EALtuCavQI
P.S. Now that I’ve re-read first post in this thread, I’ve realized that it’s not about music. I wonder if anyone fell for “Galina” psyops BS.
Look at the translations of the music, not the outward presentaion, and that will explain the the article, I think.
Patrick Lancaster has a surprising video of Wagner and the people in Rostov. Contrast that with the Biden treatment of the US military. An enlightening video concerning the “coup.”
Will it see the light of day in the West?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
amazingly, lancaster actually gets to have a brief exchange with prigozhin himself, who (in an astounding coincidence) is driving by with his escort…and yet, lancaster forgets to tell his viewers what he asked prigozhin, and what prigozhin answered!
Yes, Larry, (if that’s your real name…and we know it isn’t 🙂 , you are completely correct in your analysis, as confirmed in my analysis.
I saw it ɓy my own attentions, before reading your work yesterday. Upon reading it I was more confirmed in my opinion. And reading today, became convinced of both yours and my own.
West’s madcap massmind media are a laugh parade of tv clowns. Each so sure their wig is straight and makeup inscrutable.
In my sight it remains incomprehensible that those clowns seriously believe their act and words and themselves, in everything from nine-eleven op to Wuhan lab woo-woo. And now, psychoanalyzing putin with comedic punchlines.
What life’s view showed me is that the easiest folks to fool are those trying their damnedest to fool others. They get high on their own supply and when that runs out they go for anything offered.
The media web of lies has woven a suffocating cocoon around the spider, starting with Allen ‘artifice’ Dulles.
It was either an elaborate plan, or Prigozhin is really stupid. He’s alot of things, but I’m not guessing stupid is one of them. Given Putin let him shoot off his yip earlier this year, it looks like an elaborate plan. If Prigozhin is dead in a few week, it was a stupid coup attempt. If not, it was quite the ruse.
I suspect part of it was to find out who in Moscow might be amenable to a coup, and perhaps get some intel on foreign instigators.
Larry you seem to be one of very few analysts capable of critical thinking. The idea that the state of Russia and its leadership would tolerate a highly vocal and visible loose cannon in its military hierarchy (who isn’t a military man) running amok sowing division and discord for months on end, then inciting an open rebellion and engaging in fratricide in the middle of a hot war that Russia considers existential, is the purest of idiocies. No explanation fits other than the troll farm operator continues to ply his craft, in coordination with the state he serves. It seems obvious.
I agree Larry has distinguished himself above so many others, and I’d add Scott Ritter too, to the very small circle of individuals able to see through state-sponsored and media operated smoke-screen. Of course, his friendship to Andrei Martyanov, which allows him to get a REAL objective grip of what is transpiring in Russia, contributes to this. Unfortunately, for those living in the West, mass distraction is the mantra of its power elite over the people. The worst on the planet have to be Americans and Japanese from the data I’ve been given. Ask any gypsy pick-pocket working the underground stations in Europe.
Apparently not only was he about to lose Wagner but also all contracts with MoD. Clearly that pissed him off and started that feud with Shoigu. Knowing that Gerasimov would back Shoigu he went after him too.
They let him mouth off during the battle of Bakhmut to not affect morale. Remember he wanted to pull out early May, and once Khadyrov said he’d be happy to step in, suddenly no ammo shortage and Bakhmut became Artymovsk a few days later.
The timing is out of desperation not convenience. Russian forces were annihilating the counteroffensive. He was about to lose Wagner by July 1st (deadline to sign contracts with MoD. He had already lost or was loosing the other contracts. He either acted now or accept losing all of it. Plus, all his previous antics were antagonizing the Russian MoD so no one wanted to work with him. He started putting the SMO reasons in question and lying about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive is actually succeeding.
What made it abundantly clear though is Putins speech. It was clear that he was addressing the Wagner guys in Rostov. Saying that they dishonor the sacrifices made in the capture of Soledar and Bakhmut. That these actions are treasonous and to lay down their arms not to be deceived or coerced. Then saying that he’s given orders to take all measures to stabilize the situation in Rostov. Only Prigozhin was in Rostov destabilizing the situation.
But the real question is why? Why the deception operation? Every deception has a goal that outweighs the negatives and the risks involved. In this case the negatives (internationally among allies) and risks for Russia and Putin are huge! Again, what was the goal that’s worth all that?
The simplest explanation is he miscalculated. He thought he would have more support within the Russian forces and political establishment because many are not so fond of Shoigu. And since his stated goal is to remove Shoigu and not Putin he expected to have more support – except he didn’t.
As for him sleeping with the fishes .. we’ll see. He was trapped. He would have only accepted the deal if it guaranteed his security so to avoid bloodshed Luka made it. But Belarus is not Russia and the security guarantees stop at the border. He also still doesn’t have access to his media or financial assets.
What I think might happen is he’ll stay quiet for a long time for the public to forget about him (which is very hard for someone like him) in return for the Oligarch deal: you get some of your money, hand over your businesses to the state, go live a quiet life, and you get to live while we don’t prosecute you.
But … if he shows up in Africa leading some Wagner guys then I’ll eat my words. (Very very unlikely )
”…It isn’t some bolshi plot, is it George?
acknowledgement to Andrei’s recent Smiley clip
Think you‘re quite on the spot Phoenix. Abiding by Russian law meant integrating Wagner into the Russian army as mercenaries are not allowed to operate on Russian soil. Consequence being Prigoshin losing a lot of lucrative deals with the Russian MoD.
So he tried a desperate move, only to realize he would lose everything if he pulled it through.
Billionare with a criminal record and short temper doesn‘t mean you will always get your way.
It’s a Trojan Horse.
Prigozhin‘s wife is a Pharmacist and he has two daughters Polina and I think, Veronika. Must be disappointing to him to have no sons so Wagner is the substitute male family
He has behaved like a clan boss because that is what he wanted to be not a soldier following orders – those men did not join his rebellion – it was never a coup
It was Sopranos – I am camping in front of your „family“ enterprise in Moscow – these are my demands – he probably wanted a payoff and to be elevated as a Boyar – he craves status
He attacks Shoigu and Gerasimov because like any outsider you attack the King‘s top courtiers to gain attention – and elevate your own importance – that they do not respond diminishes your status
That Kadyrov stands as Guardian of The Kremlin moves Akhmat to centre-stage and above Wagner with Kadyrov holding military rank
Chechens represent what US-sponsored turmoil did to Russia and how Kadyrov‘s father was murdered by US agency where they used bin Laden to recruit Jihadis to destabilise Caucasud
Nice one.
I just love it how, whereas in America it is news headline that Megan Markle broke one of her fingernails, Russian society can pretty much go on without much fanfare about what the West almost put on a 4th of July fireworks celebration of Prigozhyn’s stunt and CANNOT stop talking about it.
It is truly astounding how Russian society can pretty much continue to function and go about strengthening their Ruble, thriving and making their nation strong, while
disregarding how the West won’t stop punishing them collectively for being Russian.
Meanwhile our entire country continues to commit financial suicide, with our out-of-control national debt, our society being torn apart with the incessant debates about allowing kindergarteners to be mutilated, ad nauseum discussions about the rampant white supremacy, how to better cater to illegals invading our country and doing away with proficiency tests that discriminate against minorities?
Could this be a sign that the “blue screen of death” has popped up on American society?
We know Prigozhin can supply chow for RF battalions.
I sure hope Bill Gates is not supplying Windows (aka BSOD) there!
“Never let a crisis go to waste,” is more a human nature philosophy that a democratic or even western philosophy. And it can be used for good as well as for evil. Russia’s SMO followed by the west’s continued escalation has created a crisis and unleashed in between some people’s ears delusions of grandeur. During times like these mistakes are made. I heard Putin admit that in his two-hour meeting with the press. That can be viewed as an opening by some who entertain these delusions. I agree with others here that we may never know the details but it is not the time for Putin to remove his head from the swivel. Delusions of grandeur can be contagious in times like these. Delusions of grandeur will be hitting Florida at the end of this week.
Friday night, July 1st at 12:01 am, Florida’s no permit concealed carry becomes law. Many people will be armed with something they aren’t properly prepared for. For some, they will be packin that extra piece of bravery. You will hear the media drone on about how someone shot up a drive thru because their fries were cold but neglect the good samaritan stories. If you live here or visit here, step lightly for a while as triggers will be a itchin. Self discipline is a virtue.
No one should carry concealed unless they have been trained to do so. It is a recipe for disaster.
Larry, thank you. I am military, police, life member NRA. Strongly support the 2nd. I am seeing people at gun ranges that have no concept of gun safety whatsoever. And it is a recipe for disaster. I live in Oklahoma. Very friendly juries for self-defense cases. And Castle doctrine etc. But you are still going to court. There are civil AND criminal parallel troubles. By all means you need a gun. You also need legal and application training. And shooting is a very perishable skill which you don’t do “once” a year.
This started during the BLM craziness. People ran out and bought an AR and a 9mm. Shot one box of shells and put it in the closet. God help them. Monkeys and hand grenades.
And there are real problems for newbies. The 300 Blackout. I love mine. I have taped mags, and different color furniture. A caliber you blow yourself up with EASILY by grabbing the wrong mag. Which is not really that doable in other calibers.
Unfortunately, the wise men drafting the second amendment didn’t phrase it “You have the right to bare arms if you know what you’re doing”.
Returning from a trip to the US, I observed to my American colleague how friendly and polite most of his countrymen are. He replied “The reason most Americans are polite is you never know who’s packin heat”.
The typo actually makes sense.
I do not think Florida will become a shoot’em up state, I am glad for the law and I can guarantee that the usual rebel-rousing idiots will soon learn to behave more like civilized people.
I remember how on a 100 mile traffic jam on I-95, one of those above mentioned characters thought he was being smart, driving on the shoulder, then pushing himself ahead of my car; I deliberately, gently nudged his rear bumper, as if to send him a message. He got out of his car towards mine and I simply made a motion, as if to reach for a gun in the glove compartment. He turned white as a sheet, made a quick turn around and got his tail right back into his car.
When those among us, who belong with savage beasts, realize everyone around them is packing heat, they will quickly become more mild mannered, ha!
I wonder what could have happened if he had had also a gun …
Maybe next time we are luckier.
They said that when licensed carry was first introduced in Florida. All crime including homicides including shootings went down.
I’m in Canada where they use gun control as a victim disarmament scheme. Every defensive firearm use is subject to the most extreme prosecution. Google Peter Khill. The biggest mistake any gun owner can make is calling 911.
If your next door neighbor hears you arguing with your wife or if you were subject to a common assault and defended yourself, and you have registered firearms, you can kiss them all goodbye.
Screw licensing and registration.
That having been said, a prudent person takes the proper training and has some empty-handed skills as well.
YES Larry … the guys from “The Duran” also confirm that Wagner is a Russian Military Intel asset and Prigo is the frontman.
Which video?
I thought they are on a witch hunt against Prigozhin? Two days ago in the live show they teared him apart…
It’s always the many details that are overlooked. You can see the professional in the article. But I would like to ask the following.
So let’s assume that this was all a very big deception operation. Then the next important question for me is, “Why?”. What was the goal?
To deceive USNATO about the nature of the troop movements? To move Wagner into Belarus? To move regular troops and link those movements to a coup? Unlikely. The U.S. can see all this and Thoughts about it.
Feigning weakness and chaos in the military command structure and the Russian state to provoke the USNATO into hasty action? In that case, the Ministry of Defense and at least individual units of the Russian army should have played along with the show. But they did not. And the Nazi troops are too busy dying to be capable of spectacular activities.
If you organize and carry out such a spectacular deception operation, which must attract global attention in addition, then such an operation must achieve an immediate result. Because the opponent, the USNATO, must not have too much time to think and investigate.
What happens after the “coup” in Russia and on the side of NATO? At least visibly nothing new. Or do I just not see it?
What happens after the “coup” is that the West spins a story for its population. Russia is giving the West propaganda for its citizens because its about to do something and they don’t want a reaction from NATO.
“The West wants to believe that Putin is weak and unpopular…”
That’s so funny. Hell, even rebellious youth like Putin!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzyahHv1j6A
Curious yet accurate portrayals of current events:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pscFBYb87uk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZoOXELWYg
It seems to me that, in the event of making important decisions, the Russian government (V. Putin), among other objectives, needed to know who is who and, from what is read, several took the bait. It must also be considered that Russia has one of the best, if not the best, intelligence and counter-intelligence services, both for the exterior and the interior; then it is inconceivable that he did not know each step that each unit takes and for what purpose.
Do you know the trick of starting a fight in the corner, and while everyone comes to watch, others steal your wallet?…
As I’ve been saying for months, Prigozhin is a weapon of mass distraction for the sycophantic and puerile Western media. Wagner was GRU created and run by them. Never underestimate how astute they are cause they infiltrated US society better than anyone can immagine, their forefather organization for historical accuracy. If he is a REAL threat to the motherland, believe me his days, are numbered and he knows it.
The Russians are ruthless went it comes to their enemies, be it internal or external. An example for everyone to remember would be the US’s 1983 Lebanon Intervention and subsequent bombing of the US embassy. The US’s other military allies in the adventure, France and Italy were attacked daily by Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad losing some men too. The Brits wisely that time, only sent 100 men, knowing full well who they were going up against and weren’t in the market for martyrs. The Soviets in that period, were also targeted for some unknown reason with an attack on their embassy in Beirut, but contrary to Western military doctrine, their KGB units rounded up some of the Islamic militia men and returned their dismembered bodies to their families and organizational leaders. The end result, no more attacks on the Soviets while the US, blatantly humiliated, was forced to swallow its pride and leave Lebanon with its tail between its legs. Understanding this, will help explain US foreign policy and meddling in that part of the world for over a decade now.
Slightly OT.
About an hour ago on the UK’s Talk Radio, Julia Hartley-Brewer – who i had some time for pre Feb 2022 – came out with the following MSM gem.
“Elon Musk, the worlds richest man, er second richest man, we all know Vladimir Putin has that title having stolen from his people for the last 30 years”.
So there you have it folks. Putin is the richest man in the world. Interesting, because i’d never heard this claim before, but if it’s on the UK MSM it must be true!
No doubt he has a Persian cat who sits on his lap too!
Why Putin should be motivated by money is unclear.
He has dedicated his life to being “First Servant of the State” to use a phrase favoured by Frederick The Great
I suspect he sees no value in wealth unlike Western kleptomaniacs
Why Putin should be motivated by money is unclear.
He has dedicated his life to being “First Servant of the State” to use a phrase favoured by Frederick The Great
I suspect he sees no value in wealth unlike Western kleptomaniacs who are obsessed
Yesterday I mentioned Kadyrov.
In today’s Swiss media still strongly believe that the coup is not over and that somebody else – they mention that Kadyrov was crying havoc last year against military HQ and that Chechens took part too in the mutinity – will finish of Putin. I am sure the FSB takes on this and will build up the Chechens / Kadyrov as the next bait troll for the west.
Prigozhin is a businessman, not a military commander.
So how did the orders to send a convoy towards Moscow come about. I can only see that happening because the military command in Wagner ordered it. Which leads to the question why they would issue such an order.
Deception is always spoken about in battles. Scott Ritter seems convinced, to some degree or other, that Prigozhin has been turned. Is he in reality a double agent, that would be maskirovka with four aces in the flop.
One reason I suspect Prigozhin is in Belarus is to enable him to manage Wagners other commercial operations. I’ve seen no updates on how that side of the business is faring, or who is in charge….. Show me the money?
There is no way on this green earth why Prigozhin should be in one piece if his treasonous coup was for real. But what do I know…_
The Swiss media are as reliable as any other collective west media.
Which is to say they are in the, make it up as you go along, misinformation business.
for those who didn’t see it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
Hi Larry,
I like to get perspectives from as many different angles as possible, especially from outside of the G7,
these are two different views that I think have merit, no one is entirely right and everything is subjective, my aim is to try and synthesise all the perspectives out there, find where they overlap and reinforce each other,
https://www.indianpunchline.com/fsb-spooked-the-cia-on-prigozhin-coup/
https://johnhelmer.net/from-pugachev-to-lebed-the-muzhik-rebellion-fizzles-out-without-bloodshed-prigozhin-to-africa/
some of John Helmers stuff has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but it’s a source of interesting details,
I read everything M K Bhadrakumar writes, he’s a retired diplomat and has fascinating insights and an Indian perspective.
1 October 1939, Winston Churchill gave his first wartime broadcast on BBC, and gave his famous opinion of Russian intentions as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.
Still very relevant today, 80 years later.
All this reminds me the muleta of the toreador. The western bull go for it each time, gets hurt each time, and keep going again, and again, never learn, or just even stop for a second to think about what just happened. No, head on to the muleta.
To me, the real mystery is how can the western world still be so delusionnal, and up to what level political and intel this really goes? Do our “leaders” and their “advisors” really believe all this crap? I am afraid yes because they not only they talk like they believe it, they also act like so.
I started reading a UK blog from Dominic Cumming exploring these thoughts, seemed interesting, but not finished reading yet. I still share it :
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/the-startup-party-reflections-on
extract from it :
“One of the most interesting things about the last decade is the way a subset of the entrepreneurial elite has quietly split away from the political elite in basic attitudes towards mainstream political news. In 2015 the two were much more closely aligned, with huge overlap around what you could loosely think of as Blair-Clinton-Obama, and the entrepreneurs focused mainly on business. I failed to persuade them that political Insiders were mostly living in a fake world.
Now I have extremely divergent experiences talking to these groups. The entrepreneurs share political news and discuss how surreal it is that mainstream political figures treat obvious fakes as real, then respond to the fakes (they think of as real) with more fakes, then deplore the public for not trusting their fakes as real and exhort us all to trust the mainstream (them) again. Often such entrepreneurs use private time with political Insiders to try to figure out how much of the fake the Insiders really believe is real and are realising — almost all of it.”
London’s Churchill et al. never recovered from what Lenin did.
Their Parvus Helphand (from Venetian Odessa) got 30 million gold reichsmarks for the Russian revolution, 3 million to transport Lenin from Switzerland was pocketed by Radek.
The rest is history London totally misestimated. And Karl Radek had sticky fingers like Prigozhin!
Nor did Russia if you follow Putin !
There is a theory that Gelfand (Parvus) ran money from Copenhagen via a Stockholm Bank through some weird trading company to the Bolsheviks……..and the German Ambassador in Moscow von Mirbach was assassinated by a Chekist after he had negotiated the Brest-Litovsk disgrace that neither Lenin nor Trotsky wanted to be associated with……..
Since within a year of Lenin overthrowing the Provisional Revolutionary Government under Kerensky Germany itself faced a Spartakist Uprising and mutinies………it was hardly a great scheme by Germany……….
It destabilised Germany until Adolf Hitler with US funding and support tried to undo what his partner in the 1923 Putsch – Ludendorff – had caused 23 years earlier by sending Lenin to the Finland Station
Not just London that was out of sorts with clumsy German geo-political intrigue
But Prigozhin gets sent to Belarus. Isn’t Russia sending nukes there too? So why would Russia trust Prigozhin in Belarus?
Perhaps Prigozhin has been sent to Belarus to start another Wagner style group. He does seem to be good at orchestrating “things”.
Did I really just listen to Eminem on sonar21? Miracles never cease! 😀
While He has never ben in the military, he is a great leader” something that very few possess , He is the wild card.
What an unmitigated disaster for the CIA. Gave a huge amount of money to the Russians only to have the Russians shit all over the CIA and the collective West.
FSB picked up 5 Billion Rubles from Wagner’s HQ. Was this one of a number of part payments?
Of greater interest going forward is what Priggy and his boys are going to do in Belarus. Natostan is currently training a large number of morons for an upcoming coup attempt in Belarus. Will Priggy and his boys form the welcoming committee for the coup plotters and their supporters?
BTW, Blinken is currently whinging about the damage the Wagner boys have done in Africa. Blinken has a point but fails to mention that the damage that the Wagner boys inflicted on the French in Mali was so bad that the French have bailed out of Mali for good.
Sundance (and me for that matter) would agree that Prigi and Vlad the Lad just Platinum Level trolled the Empire of Lies…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/06/25/sunday-talks-anthony-blinken-spins-a-tale-of-woe-for-vladimir-putin/#more-248140
Who knows?
The real question, “Does it matter?”
Putin remains President of RF, 404 continues to exhaust itself and NATO, in useless attempts to gain ground with strategic value. The Comic of Kiev is obviously a graduate of the Austrian Corporals War College.
I don’t watch MSNBC, but I’ll betcha that Joe & Mika are wetting their pants over the 50-strong Ukie bridgehead on the East bank of the Dnepr! Wonder how the afterglow will feel after the Ukies move lots of troops and armor into that swamp and then get TOS’d?
Let’s Go Brandon!
The Master said: ‘warfare is based on deception. When weak, feign strength; when strong, feign weakness.” E.P.’s job is to feign weakness, in a boisterous, obnoxious, and attention grabbing way to Russia’s enemies. His message is that Russia is not doing well, there’s grumbling in the ranks, the Kremlin is rife with simmering tensions that could break out in chaotic upheavals under the ‘right’ circumstances. Prigozhin is telling them that their long standing strategy of provoking regime change is working like a charm. So keep going. Don’t stop. Don’t alter course. It’s working. You were right about Russian unprovoked aggression. It’s all Shoigu’s fault … . He’s telling them exactly what the reigning neocons most want to hear. Their own lies and fantasies.
Why is he saying this? I think it’s because there are danger signs that the Western adults in the room are threatening to put their foot down and get the Ukrainian army to fall back on the defensive. That’s not what the masters of attrition warfare want. Not at all. So it’s worth staging a bit of public drama to get the right message to the enemy. Anyway, I think the theatre was a success. The Western political class and their media managers took the bait. In fact, nearly everybody did. Well done. I think it will matter with the upcoming Nato meeting. But again, the important thing is to keep the realists and competent military professionals under the heel of the neocon ideologists. Keep those offensives coming.
Another telltale sign. Prigozhin in his video made the outlandish claim that the actions of February 24 were a piece of unprovoked aggression on the part of Russia. Is that how you’re supposed to call the patriots to action? Does anybody in Russia actually believe that? Why is he saying this? It seems to me he said that because he wasn’t addressing Russians, patriots or whatever. He was speaking with the intention of being ‘overheard’ by Russia’s enemies, the real audience of his theatrical performance.
God Bless Wagner Heroes, Holy Mother Russia and Mr.Prigozhin.
Relics of drunkard, marked one and ALL supporting “colleagues partners”, PLUNDERERS and EXTERMINATORS of Russian People are obviously still in charge. Enjoy your support.
Rostov demonstrates their feelings and support.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
Use komonsky sense when reading “analyses by highly professional” operatives.
There is a REASON and NEED for analysts.
A brilliant article, written with genuine wit, intelligence and energy.
When “Silley Milley” gladly cancelled his meeting with Netanyahu to “Brain Storm,” I knew then that the US had no idea what was happening. Furthermore, I knew Silley Milley and the Cabinecy of Dunces would quickly grab a headline and make it sound as if they pushed Putin into a corner. Yup, as always Biden and his crime family did not waste an opportunity to screw up!
Putin has a problem with victory, what to do with Western Ukraine? On solution would be to really privatize it. Guess who the next President of Ukraine will be.
Most Western parts will be split between Poland, Hungary and Romania. They are all so hungry for a hot potato.
Russian armed forces have been moving away from the battalion tactical group back to division-level formations.
Prigozhin and his merry little men revolted against this move.
They didn’t want to be absorbed into Russian army.
From the point of general staff it was usual order of business after all it was they who created Wagner and they wanted to end it. For prigozhin it was an end to his business i.e. lucrative army contract plus Africa contracts.
It was revolt. In the coming days and months we must expect to hear less of Wagner and more of Russian armed forces.
In Belarus if he continues to show disrespect to army he may be sentenced to house arrest.
I think prigozhin broke the cardinal rule of Wagner it was orginally created for covert operation it was his narcissism and ego that brought his downfall.
Remember that 4 general(in my count) have died while supporting Wagner’s flank. Number of air force pilots(4 in my count) died trying to support him. One leader of volunteer front was shot at point blank range(my guess is disagreement with ammunition supply)
Economic of war
Fielding Wagner was cheap in the earlier days.(wage + lumpsum money at end of contract)
Now what’s happening inside Russia is that MIC employees are getting best/premium medical and life insurance. This is happening because Russia has successfully navigated through sanctions.
More people are signing contracts (5year) with army now because it pays well than PMC.
central bank is busy devaluing ruble without lowering its purchasing power in the internal market. This is done through deregulation,subsidies and decreasing tax burden on industries.
Russian services, being aware of the clownish nature of the West, picked a clown, Prigozhin, for the certainty of his appeal to Western media. They just failed to take into account the notorious tendency of his kind to get carried away. The Prig overestimated his importance in the grand scheme of things. Lukashenko explained him the reality of things. In the end, the “coup” was a nothingburger in Russia and an umpteenth demonstration that the West is a circus run by clowns.
Lack of support from anyone explained him the reality of things. Lukashenko just provided a golden bridge to retreat across.
Hi Larry, I have a question for you.
Given that, as you say, Prighozhyn’s coup resembles a theatrical performance, the problem of the reason remains and your explanation yesterday is not very convincing: if the Russians are preparing an attack from the north and are using the pretext of the coup to move the troops, the fact remains that, regardless of the reason, the system of US surveillance is in any case perfectly aware of it; so why not just move them without doing any maskirovka?
On the other hand, the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive makes it completely clear that the fate of the war is turning in favor of Moscow and this could lead the Western leadership to adopt very risky choices. One of these is certainly the attempt to destabilize Belarus; the Russians have already raised the issue in recent days and one response has been the deployment of tactical nuclear bombs on Belarusian territory. But if troops masquerading as insurgents are infiltrated from Poland or the Ukraine and a rainbow revolution is activated internally (as in 2020-2021) nuclear bombs could be of little use, but if Wagner’s top brass (I mean GRU officers like Utkin certainly not Prigozhin) and its most trained troops are there following the failure of the attempted coup in Russia, their role in stopping an eventual insurrection could be crucial
The theatrical representation would therefore have served to make the Belarusians and their deep state accept the arrival of Wagner to protect them (after all, wasn’t it one of the tasks that Prighozyn intended to carry out in the aftermath of the infiltrations of the Ukrainians in the territory of Belgorod?)
What do you think?
This guy will get a book better than any Clancy wrote. He is deep. Trolling in 2016. Must have gotten Trump in. LOL in Hillary too. Reminds me when the Venezuelan’s set up a deal where a big general was going to come to their side, and on camera, he went on the other, and they just laughed at their CIA PR stunt goes bad. Bet Prig ends up fighting in Belarus and funny we never heard of the generals or army that Prig took control of. I’m sure they are right where they are supposed to be, keeping the front fine.
Here’s an interesting fragment of an old Prigozhin’s interview that sounds a bit different nowdays:
https://t.me/zoka200/11233
There’s no way in the world that one could justify the recent mutiny by the head of Wagner as some kind of a preplanned scenario or maskirovka. The Wagner is not just a separate entity of its own, independent from the state with its separate policies and goals like for example when the government order him to go eastward he says No he must go the other way. This is called mutiny. There are many evidences which prove beyond doubt that Prigozhin had strong connections with the mainstream international oligarchic network even long before Ukraine war started. This oligarchic network is basically the dollar-affiliated Jewish hierarchy that’s firmly attached to the global financial body. No wonder Khodorovsky – another Russian Jewish oligarch currently in exile – immediately supported the coup. Also Prigozhin seemed to have had finally lost his old-man’s temper when the military said it won’t need the services of his numerous companies serving the army anymore unless Wagner fighters sign up with new contracts. So he decided it was time to act like Rambo – very flashy and twittery for drawing attentions – with hope of getting supports from those dollar-affiliated 5th-6th columnists inside/outside Russia as a last solution to first of all save his private business and also perform a 007 mission on behalf of the $ empire. In the mean time got various levels of encouragements from Khodorovsky and others like Kasparov, Kolomoiski, Zelinski, Ukrainian military, CIA …. That explains why he felt comfy to repeat NATO/Ukrainian-style lies about Russia losing on the battlefield or there was no need to launch the SMO or Ukraine winning in Artemovsk and many more lies without even fearing his own troops noticing it. Fortunately after all this Russia will come out much stronger and more united than ever with Wagner fighters more resolute than before against their enemy. As Chechens say, Inshallah, Slava Russia.
Understanding Russia requires lots of effort. Calling everything maskirovka is easy, and it sounds much better.
Chechens have come a long way indeed. From the enemy of Russia to the most determined defender.
Yes. Not only Chechens will defend Russia but from Central Asia to Iran to South West Asia and Arabia are absolutely determined to defend Russia. By doing that they are defending themselves too.
There’s no way in the world that one could justify the recent mutiny by the head of Wagner as some kind of a preplanned scenario or maskirovka. The Wagner is not just a separate entity of its own, independent from the state with its separate policies and goals like for example when the government order him to go eastward he says No he must go the other way. This is called mutiny. There are many evidences which prove beyond doubt that Prigozhin had strong connections with the mainstream international oligarchic network even long before Ukraine war started. This oligarchic network is basically the dollar-affiliated Jewish hierarchy that’s firmly attached to the global financial body. No wonder Khodorovsky – another Russian Jewish oligarch currently in exile – immediately supported the coup. Also Prigozhin seemed to have had finally lost his old-man’s temper when the military said it won’t need the services of his numerous companies serving the army anymore unless Wagner fighters sign up with new contracts. So he decided it was time to act like Rambo – very flashy and twittery for drawing attentions – with hope of getting supports from those dollar-affiliated 5th-6th columnists inside/outside Russia as a last solution to first of all save his private business and also perform a 007 mission on behalf of the $ empire. In the mean time got various levels of encouragements from Khodorovsky and others…. That explains why he felt comfy to repeat NATO/Ukrainian-style lies about Russia losing on the battlefield or there was no need to launch the SMO or Ukraine winning in Artemovsk and many more lies without even fearing his own troops noticing it. Fortunately after all this Russia will come out much stronger and more united than ever with Wagner fighters more resolute than before against their enemy. As Chechens say, Inshallah, Slava Russia.
The western press should have looked like an Inuit who buys a fridge this morning, but no, they were just doubling down on “Putin’s weakness” adding a fresh coat of hopium to Prigozhin’s one …
I won’t lie : it’s very entertaining.
But I’m also thinking about all this poor guys who will have to run the no man’s land under the “not so demotivated” Russian’s shells because of it and this is depressing.
There are still to much “heads” to cut in 404 for the GRU alone ; someone should help them :p.
I think Russian Revolution 2 – the Sequel, failed because of difficulties with the supply chain. Soros et al didn’t place the order for the t-shirts, banners and flags in time. They were supposed to be at the docks at Rostov, hence all those trucks heading south instead of north to Moscow. Frankly, military cam isn’t a good look for a colourful revolution these days.
My sources tell me they couldn’t agree on the colour, red being considered too Soviet and pink a bit gay for the average Russian revolutionary (though the focus groups on Madison Ave thought it inclusive and inspiring).
Also, NED and neocons couldn’t agree on the slogan. The best they could come up with ‘Putin Man Bad’ got mistranslated by their Chinese t-shirt manufacturers to ‘Путин – мужик’ (Putin’s the man!), so I hear. There are murmurings that this may have been intentional.
As for figuring out what happened, well it’s still happening. Maybe in a couple of years we’ll have a better idea, when we see what becomes of the three Mr P’s. Will they kiss and make up? Or will Mr Prigozhin have a misadventure with an icepick in some far off land? I suspect he lacks the fluency in English to become a talking head on the Western MSM chat show circuit.
The real mystery will likely be solved by our grandchildren when they get to look in the archives in 30-50 years time. Meanwhile, we watch history as it unfolds.
Convoy with LGBT paraphernalia was on the outskirts of Rostov, but it ran into Chechens.
Prigozhin is bound to survive a Novichok poisoning. It’s the most deadly substance known to man, that never killed anyone.
I am not the president of the biggest nation on the planet, but am sometimes in meetings with big company bosses. Most of them are not really smart, but just powerful, what is a problem when others are as powerful as you. Then seemingly senseless discussions begin, with some of the alpha plus males getting loud.
These alpha animals can’t stand not getting their will done. Their world is most times simple: They command and the other obeys. But among other alpha animals, that doesn’t work.
To me, it is like prigoshin just lost his nerves in his fight with shoigu.
You don’t get an alpha position just because you are smart and good. You get it because you are ruthless. Especially in Russia.
Putin is a bit of exception there. He is smart. And he managed this prigoshin theatre.
Now we have to switch to the normal problem again: Ukraine Army, when will it dissolve.
Well said.
New one on me.
Goes under trademark of “everyday spy” named Andrew Bustamante… is he kosher CIA. Seems so…_
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvXguRJb_ro
In other news, Vatican is stealing Orthodox Christian relics from Kiev Pechersk Lavra in order to protect them from Russians.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/52386
Great write up from Sundance at CTH. A little more insight.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/06/25/sunday-talks-anthony-blinken-spins-a-tale-of-woe-for-vladimir-putin/#more-248140
This most recent episode of the “Ukraine Performance” is a head scratch-er…… because all of the alternative media pundits have a different take on the unfolding plot and when it first played out everyone – and I mean everyone was confused!!!!!
If you watch Christoforou’s three updates on 24-25June he is confused and “publically coping” over the betrayal narrative. Scott Ritter and Martyanov is also in the “coup” camp, but notes some obvious inconsistencies in the plot.
While still waiting for more of the “plot line” to be delivered by the Russians, I think Larry’s skeptical analysis is the most probable, as this whole episode is crazier than fiction.
If part of the goal was to confuse the shit out of the media – it has succeed! I notice now the MSM is back to shaping the events to the western narrative of internal dissension and Putin’s days are numbered.
Thanks Larry for being a skeptic with facts…….pretty obvious you were a great analyst, but also pretty obvious that stating the unpopular facts that were NOT the expected ones, got you to where you are.
I will keep reading and listen……..kudos my man!
The Russians have produced a master episode with “Prighozyn – the Crazy Ivan!”
Larry, you are the best geopolitical analyst I can think of today. I am extremely glad that your kind is obsolete in the Agency and today you would be just another pointless voice in the forest yelling the truth. By now you know I am not a fan of America (I grew up partially in the America). To be succinct today I think the US deep state is a complete evil that has now become known as the USA may well succeed in destroying society because of their sheer arrogance & stupidity. Still glad you’re out of the Intelligence battlefield. In today’s USA LGBT intelligence guys, Lesbians are as intelligent as Turkeys waiting for Xmas dinner. Bravo for that bit of good luck, speaking on my side of the floor.
“Putin’s kill list rivals the Clintons”, oh Larry! I almost shit laughing at that one!
Even those of us who consider themselves the trainable retarded can see through this as what it is? Good grief. No one cancelled the Wagner ATM card at the Russian 7/11 while stopping for fuel and a bag of chips? But then again the high IQ crowd isn’t going to get many views and clicks on their ever growing platforms if it as simple as what Mr. Johnson purports here.
If you’ve got a column of trucks packed with guys wielding assault rifles and more, you probably don’t need a VISA card at the 7/11 to get your gas & snacks.
Mind you, cancelling their company credit cards would really make em mad!
There is an actual video (from Rostov I believe), with couple of them standing in line in local store, fully geard up, rifles hanging on single-point sling, and with covered faces. VISA card don’t work in Russia, so it was either Mir card or cash. 🙂
This Dmitry Utkin guy appears to be the real founder and commander of Wagner (he is ex GRU, Spetnaz, Lieutenent colonel).
He is Ukrainian, born in Smoline. And is a neo-pagan with nazi sympathies and tattoos of blots and eagles on his neck and chest…. OK, how did Russia not see this coming?
Did he need to add a Banderas tatoo? or was it not too obvious already?
I read that the photos of the NAZI bolts and eagles were photoshopped.
The article was many months ago now so I can’t recall it but there were contrasting photos of Utkin with short sleeves and low necked shirts which showed no NAZI tattoos and then there were the newly “discovered” photos’.
As it obvious this is the Brits war, Tom Luongo mentions :
https://tomluongo.me/2023/06/25/was-prigozhins-rebellion-live-or-memorex/
Apparently Biden blocked Brit Ben Wallace taking over NATO, Stoltenberg must extent yet again.
And NATO was likely to do that soon in July!
This Dmitry Utkin guy appears to be the real founder and commander of Wagner (he is ex GRU, Spetnaz, Lieutenent colonel).
He is Ukrainian, born in Smoline. And is a neo-pagan with nazi sympathies and tattoos of bolts and eagles on his neck and chest…. OK, how did Russia not see this coming?
Did he need to add a Banderas tatoo? or was it not too obvious already?
Writing this nonsense once was alerady too much.
The mind is free, as Schiller said.
Problem is, those tattoos are indelible.
They are Skin Illustrations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia7hgaOTyPw
from Ray Bradbury’s THE ILLUSTRATED MAN, staring Rod Steiger and Claire Bloom. 1969
When one sees this one wonders!
“I react with pleasure,” I’ve never just been the financier of the Internet Research Agency. I invented it, I created it, I managed it for a long time. It was founded to protect the Russian information space from boorish aggressive propaganda of anti-Russian narrative from the West.”
“Through this activity, the IRA posted thousands of ads that reached millions of people online. The IRA also organized and coordinated political rallies during the run-up to the 2016 election, all while hiding its Russian identity. Further, the IRA unlawfully utilized personally identifiable information from US persons to open financial accounts to help fund IRA operations.”
“Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere,” Prigozhin said in November, one day before the US midterm elections. “Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”
Yevgeny Prigozhen, Feb. 14, 2023
Yeah it’s interesting that agency. I don’t think the Kremlin would have been quite simply happy with that kind of thing going on, regarding interfering with US elections.
I suspect CLinton gave Prig the job.
Where do I apply for a job as a “professional troll?”
A UK state psy-ops specialist cultivates Nina Jankowicz, sponsors NATO troll farms
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/08/24/intelligence-british-govt-grayzone/
A whole animal farm now Zinc, there….
Or a neighbor Elv farm NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization.
Not sure whether Trolls are actually shorter than Elves but Leprechauns are in the running!
There is an office in Kiev.
Evidence of CIA/MI6 planning Prigozhen’s coup attempt is that it was stupid. And that it failed. I doubt the Russians are good enough actors to fake a CIA/MI6 plan…the 3 Stooges may have been, though. Prigozhen doesn’t seem to be the brightest star in the firmament, so maybe he did it all by his lonesome.
The real casualties of Russia’s ‘civil war’: the Beltway expert class
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/06/26/russias-civil-war-beltway-expert/
“Numerous serious casualties were incurred during Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s supposed “coup.” The Grayzone offers an in-depth look at the massacre carried out by some of America’s top Russia experts against their own credibility.”
A bloodbath of the expert class. Horrendous loses that no-one noticed.
That is a great article. The DC beltway folks don’t seem to realize they are living in a Potemkin Village with a POTEMKIN PRESS:
Potemkin Village
“Potemkin erected phony portable settlements along the banks of the Dnieper River in order to impress the Russian Empress and foreign guests. The structures would be disassembled after she passed, and re-assembled farther along her route to be seen again. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village
The interesting thing about that story was that the villages were not designed to fool the Russian serfs but the Russian elites. One can only imagine the laughter of the Russian peasants, standing behind the fake facades, as the Empress toured her empire.
I have not read or seen any confirmation that Russian aerospace forces (men and/or materials) were killed/destroyed in this gambit by Prigozhin.
This concerns me as the Simplicius body of work has been stellar so far without a hint of self-aggrandizement with respect to facts in evidence. But he wrote, “Prigozhin who appeared to have carried out a massacre as he destroyed a confirmed 7 total Russian aircraft with the initial reports stating that all pilots died.” Who validated the destruction and deaths of Russian airmen and the loss of aircraft?
We have seen so much visual proof of all the carnage of this war in the last 16 months. That makes me expect that someone who witnessed the downing of these helicopters and fixed wing airplane would have provided image captures to attest to the loss of those assets. A brief summary is not corpus delicti.
But let’s explore this further and accept the deaths of Russian regular troops who were engaged against PMC Wagner. The fact that Wagner is not the enemy (at that moment in time) and these murders were not “friendly fire” then how could Prigozhim be allowed to walk?
I will digress briefly. In the United States there are two systems of justice; one for the hoi poloi and one for the wealthy, modern-day Kulaks. Examples: Wall Street commercial bank executives NEVER go to jail; they get slapped with civil fines for the many charges of financial fraud but prison is not on the table. Progeny of high officials in the Washington, DC crime syndicate are given such a broad latitude by the U.S. DOJ they never go to jail either. Witness the horrid story of Hunter Biden and his villainous escapades including tax fraud, money laundering, federal weapons and illegal drug violations.
So President Putin gives Prigozhin “a deal.” What is the agreement I wonder?
Firstly, I don’t believe for a second that Prigozhin has any proof to blackmail Putin. The offer may be more like this:
1. Provide evidence in writing of all known accomplices in the Kremlin and in Russian corporations.
2. Provide evidence in writing of all offers of financial remuneration from foreign sources.
3. A clawback of any monies paid directly too him by the Russian government.
4. Pay death benefits to the families of any Russian regular military that perished (assumedly).
5. Surrender of his Russian passport.
6. Divest of any financial holdings in companies doing business with the Russian government.
7. Divest of any financial holdings in companies engaged in commerce inside the Russian Federation.
8. Immediately sell all property owned inside the Russian Federation.
9. Prohibit all association with known felons under Russian law and international law.
Failure to comply with any of the above will result in an arrest warrant via Russian law and notification to INTERPOL.
So the “deal” is really probation for life and to render him financially poor. He is not too old to begin a new catering business, maybe serving the growing western transgender cult; who knows?
Putin cannot let this guy off the hook without something in return; it would be unconscionable if he did, especially if the deaths of Russian servicemen are proven to be true.
He shot down a Ka 52 and a plane. I don’t think that was part of an intelligence plan. He did more damage to Russian aerospace than the Ukrainian offensive. I think his beef with MOD is real. It doesn’t mean intelligence agency didn’t take advantage of situation on both sides. Is he part of operation? Have no idea too many unknown variables to make proper assessment. It is truly strange.
This little “Wagner coup” episode highlights how all of us tend to believe what we want to believe, regardless of objective reality and actual conditions. Fallen humanity tends, in its thinking, toward the emotive fallacy, which says: “I want X to be true, therefore X is true.”
We are all guilty, in some degree, of the weakness of wishful thinking, but some far more than others. What saves humanity from total self-delusion via the emotive fallacy is the very hardness of objective reality and the hard knocks meted out by it when we go too far in ignoring or defying it. Another key factor that militates against self-delusion (and the personal existential disaster that tends to follow necessarily from it) is a love of truth that the Lord implants in His elect.
Over the weekend, the neocons — who of late had been depressed and sulking about the obviously failed and disastrous Ukie offensive — on hearing of a possible coup against the hated Putin, exploded in jubilant and wild headlines in the uber-controlled Western media. In a flash, depression had turned to euphoria, as victory in Ukraine, by a shocking reversal of fortune, had seemingly been snatched from the jaws of defeat.
But then came bad news. The “Lukashenko” deal, if we may call it that, abruptly quashed the neocon fantasy and jubilee. And so now, the Monday morning after, as pundits of all stripes spout rival conjectures and spin out narratives — some of which will eventually find homes as “fact” in history books — the world at large sits befuddled and mystified, unsure whether the “coup” was ultimately real or merely staged by the Russians for Western consumption.
The whole episode illustrates that what matters most in politics — and in military operations, as but one aspect of politics — is deep institutional structure, and not the vagaries of individual personalities.
The Scottish philosopher David Hume rightly taught that all political authority is rooted in opinion. And Hume meant by opinion, not the often shallow and ephemeral views registered in polls, but instead the deep and persisting views about right and wrong and good and evil held by a people.
By all reliable accounts I know — after sifting through and beyond Western media propaganda and blackout — Vladimir Putin is in no danger whatsoever of being deposed. Both he and the special military operation are firmly and strongly supported by the Russian people. And so even if, hypothetically, Putin himself was no longer in power, the deep Humean opinion of the Russian people would inexorably call forth and erect another leader, very much like Putin, to represent and lead them in safeguarding the motherland from any and all Western (and other) existential threats. And this, by the way, is but one deep, political-philosophical reason why Lindsey Graham’s repeated calls for Putin’s assassination are intellectually infantile — and morally evil.
Russia, unlike the United States, is united. Indeed, Christian Russia is waxing in social power, both physically and morally, as we in atheist America are waning.
Giving the lie to Western coup-mongers, deep structure analysis suggests that Russian arms will soon go over to a general, big arrow offensive and take Kharkov and Odessa. The Russians will then likely pause to assess the Western reaction to these repossessions. Then, to permanently bar the wicked U.S. from Ukraine and to prevent our committing more anti-Russian mischief there, Russian forces will move west through Ukraine to the Polish border.
Finally, Western reaction to these developments — by our usurpatory and ideologically mad leaders — will determine whether we all get vaporized or not by Christmas.
I have heard that Russia is a gas station pretending to be a country, so the Wagner truck convoy traveling 700 miles 1200 KM would find a gas station and this time of year would be great for a road trip 👍 😀
LOL. Mother Russia has all the gas and snacks one can desire. It lacks in toilet department for some reason, so they have to bring those that they stole from Ukraina Mati. 🙂
If this was a real mutiny, it is worst conceived in history. At least Fletcher Christian knew how to sail a ship.
“Appear weak when you are strong…” Sun Tzu
IMO, it is in Russia’s best interests to preserve the myth of potential Ukrainian victory for as long as possible. At least, until the NATO puppet regime in Kiev can be collapsed quickly, preferably from within.
This would provide NATO with a plausible way of blaming its defeat on Ukraine and its leaders. Thus, hopefully encouraging NATO to refrain from doing something very stupid.
Two things:
LJ: “Could it be that Prigozhin, as the mega Troll, is keeping the West distracted while the actual Russian war fighters go about the business of dismantling Ukraine’s NATO-supplied force?”
Answer: Yup.
Also, until they arrest Priggy, or have Belarus do that, we have to conclude he’s a friend of the Kremlin. This truth must be kept.
I think this whole ‘coup attempt’ is a trigger mechanism to get Western Governments to stay in the game of supporting Ukraine. The Russians know that said governments are tiring of the Ukraine project, especially after the loss of Bakhmut and the recent failed offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, the Collective West is still a threat to Russia’s existence.
In my opinion, this is, like Larry has said, some kind of Maskirovka game! The Russians are feigning weakness, enticing the West to double down as a result of the opportunity that has seemingly presented itself. And because mainstream media is reporting this skewed and unvetted view of what actually happened, the sheeples will call on their political representatives to keep on spending more taxpayers money to support Zelensky and Ukraine’s war effort.
This has got ‘Mongol Warfare’ written all over it, only the real target that Russia is trying to exhaust and destroy is the economy of the Collective West. Destroy the West’s economy, and Russia destroys the ability of the Collective West to be an existential threat to Russia. Putin and his team are like a casino that sucks in rich problem gamblers.
Let me take a stab at it… a few billion greenbacks end up in Prigozhin hands curtesy of the CIA, he fakes a revolt with Putin’s knowledge and ends up in Belarus back serving caviar and Champaign?
Yep.
Wait a minute, maybe I missed something already reported here (and I apologize in advance if so) but Concord Catering and the Internet Research Agency are the companies that the Mueller commission brought charges against for “Russian interference” in the 2016 election. At the time, what surprised the Mueller staff and caught them off-guard was that Concord/IRA hired attorneys in the US and challenged the charges in court! And I think, but I’m not sure, that these were the Russian companies responsible for a mere $140,000 worth of Facebook ads related to that election — ads, IIRC, that were written in Russian. Then, in 2020, the Department of Justice finally dropped charges against the companies, for fear that if the case moved forward, “discovery” privileges of Concord Catering and Internet Research Agency could reveal US “national security” information to Russia.
How could this tie in with any theories about Western IC involvement in the purported “coup” attempt?
That is a good catch:
Russia’s Prigozhin admits links to what U.S. says was election-meddling troll farm
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-prigozhin-admits-links-what-us-says-was-election-meddling-troll-farm-2023-02-14/
So it gets even more murky.
I find Colonel MacGregor’s take to be important. Here he is speaking with George Galloway (I’m posting just his interview, in Galloway’s “Mother of All Talk Shows”[MOATS] episode several guests are interviewed.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZoS9fVX20I
Briefly MacGregor says that Prigozhin is very popular in Russia so he can’t be disciplined or killed. Secondly the Wagners aren’t really mercenaries – the proper model would be what the Foreign Legion is to France – totally loyal and very effective – so they don’t act like mercenaries as per Machiavelli:
“Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and …”
Now WHY is Prigozhin so popular? Because he is extremely gung-ho and wants to finish off the UkroNazis fast so everyone can go home. This convoy was what he called a “March for Justice”. He wanted to get Putin’s attention so Russia can stop basically – dicking around. According to MacGregor, most Russians favor a more muscular approach to the SMO.
Larry, you ask some good questions. To you the professional, it smells like an “op”.
There is some evidence perhaps – Prigozhin, Lukashenko and Putin all go way back – but there are too many pieces that don’t fit. It may have been just Prigozhin’s clumsy attempt to make a point. (Maybe similar in a small way to the Canadian truckers’ convoy to Ottawa.) A family squabble that got out of hand.
Per Intel Slava @ 9:12 AM this morning:
In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of PMC “Wagner” – reports “Layout “.
The publication confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters.
According to them, there will be several camps.
“We are working, we are already working today. Tomorrow, before lunch, the task is [to build],” said the source of the “Layout”.
He added that the area of the camp will be 24 thousand square meters, it will be designed for eight thousand beds.
Another source of Layout, close to the leadership of the Mogilev region, also confirmed that the authorities were instructed to build a camp for PMCs in the region.
——–
So, it seems that this scenario is possible:
Wagner was going to Belarus in the first place.
The convoy was meant to take them there (how many Wagner troops were in the convoy?).
On their supposed “March for Justice” (or whatever Priggy called it) toward Moscow, Priggy supposedly made an agreement with Putin via Lukashenko, which just so happened to coincide with the timing of Wagner’s normal left hand turn at Voronezh to go to Belarus.
So now Kiev will have Wagner to the North of them (within about 200 miles).
Also Poland, Lithuania, and all of NATO are now made more anxious by the presence of Wagner, whom they fear.
Mission accomplished.
Here is my little John Le Carré scenario: this was a psyop that started with the GRU/FSB security acting on a compromat of Prigozhin. He was likely caught in some financial wheeling-dealing, e.g. selling the Ukies supplies or fuel behind the scenes (a Czech blogger wrote in the spring that he saw Russian-brand bottled water in the AFU trenches in Donbas) and breaching a STFU order over Shoigu and Gerasimov. Now, I assume that he was really obsessed with the two and seeking their ouster and making some half-assed stupid moves to get himself closer to Kremlin’s decision-making. He was confronted and made an offer he could not refuse. I don’t buy Martyanov’s idea that he was recruited by the US/Uk intel. His fate is tied to Russia, and a wily zek that he is, he knows he’s being watched day and night. Also, one of the telling signs that the uprising was a Russian intel psyop is that Prigozhin started to ape the Western propaganda which ran absolutely against everything he was yapping about up until the start of June, against his hawkish beefs against the incompetent duo at MOD. Why would he be saying things like ‘Zelensky had no plans against Donbas’? Doesn’t make sense except signalling to someone he was ready to make a move while also make it look he was disassembling even further. Further, Putin: if there was a psyop orchestrated by Prigozhin’s enemies in which the Wagner boss was to play a patsy, Putin would have had to know in advance what was in play, and what the deal was for Prigozhin and the circle he controls. After all, Russia was going to take a hit internationally, no matter what. And he would have to address it publicly, so he would not go beyond what he could later defend as true. So, there must have been something a “rebellion against Putin’s appointed military leaders” could do for Putin. What was it? Would such an action expose a larger ring of discontents in the army, a 5th column in Moscow, or perhaps confirm suspected and monitored CIA/MI6 assets within Russia? It could. It would have been a signal intel bonanza for Russia’s spies. So, a deal, if there was one, would have been arranged in advance. The Chinese were probably contacted about the coup on Friday, Lukashenko and Erdogan on Saturday.
The entire Internet Research Agency “troll farm” narrative is utter nonsense.
“Everything what we know now about the so-called “Kremlin trolls from the Internet Research Agency paid by Putin’s favorite chef,” came from one source, a group of CIA spies that used the mascot of Shaltay-Boltay, or Humpty-Dumpty, for their collective online persona.”
https://archive.is/TzgLZ
Moon Of Alabama addressed the subject early on in at least two separate articles.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/10/3000-facebook-ads-the-russian-influence-campaign-is-a-profitable-click-bait-scheme.html
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/02/mueller-indictement-the-russian-influence-is-a-commercial-marketing-scheme.html
Google’s CEO testified before Congress describing these Russian ads as “limited activity and proper activity” which cost a grand total total of $4700.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4766980/user-clip-russian-accounts-spent-total-4700-google-ads-2016
It’s no wonder that the US government quivered in fear after the Russian $4700 expenditure completely undermined the $2.65 BILLION total spent on the Clinton-Trump campaigns.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016s-price-tag-6-8-billion/
It’s obvious that Russia is the land of evil miracles.
When the PTB set things in motion , Lenin, and even, yes Hitler et al, and Prigozhin , they live to witness how out- of-control the “best made plans of mice and men, go oft awry” as Scotland’s poet Robert Burns keenly observed.
When this happens they exclaim Russia is an “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”.
The truth is that the Powers That Be, PTB are utter and complete morons.
I just did my shopping run at the local supermarket. I always walk by the MSM newspaper aisle to gauge the degree of insanity plaguing our country and Western Civilization as a whole. I wasn’t disappointed.
The headlines of the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Financial Times all account the alleged coup as evidence of FATAL CRACKS in Putin’s popularity and the survivability of the Russian state.
“Have patience! ‘Maindan Two’ is in the works!”
They should be embarrassed when the coup is eventually exposed as a Russian PSYOP … but they won’t. Everything goes down the memory hole as our elites continue their “Alice in Wonderland” fairy tales”.
“Quick! Back to the ‘trans’ movement targeting toddlers and teenagers to divert attention away from Ukraine to Satanic Rites to incite people to focus on something else!”
Please MSM. You’ll have to do better than this.
Okay, Larry…What is your take on Putin’s speech today? He announced the dissolution of Wagner.
From what I read, Putin offered Wagner soldiers 3 choices:
1) sign up with the Russian military
or
2) go home to your families in Russia
or
3) go to Belarus
Sounds like Wagner could possibly be re-formed in Belarus… maybe ? We’ll see.
Interesting to add up the following; Why would Russia allow an insurrectionist to get so close to nukes?
Headlines:
“Putin says tactical nuclear weapons to be deployed in Belarus in July.”
“Russia: Prigozhin will move to Belarus, charges to be dropped.”
Now mix:
“All warfare is based on deception. Therefore, when capable, feign incapacity; when active, inactivity. When near, make it appear that you are far away; when far away, that you are to lure him; feign disorder and strike him. When he concentrates, prepare against him; where he is strong, avoid him. Anger his general and confuse him. Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.”
Sun Tzu
No matter how all this began, one outcome for Putin is plausible deniability for any acts Prigozhin, The Mad Russian exiled to Belarus with his private army for treason, might undertake against Ukraine and Western interests.
War News 24/7 has much more on what Priggy and the boys are and are likely to be doing in Belarus……..
https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/se-efarmogi-to-schedio-sourovikin-tha-epitethoun-se-lutsk-lviv-kai-kievo-anaptyxi-chiliadon-stratioton-tis-vagkner-kata-mikos-lefkorosias-dytikis-oukranias/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB
And yes, Wagner;s recruitment centers have reopened after the weekend’s festivities.
All in all, this “uprising’ will go down in history as the greatest maskirovka of all time.
He and many of his troops have been conveniently exiled to Belarus. Ukraine’s troops are mostly in the Donbas. Belarus’s border is just a few clicks from Kiev. Perhaps it was a clever ruse to accommodate troop movements???
Maybe, maybe not, but an attempted coup it was not.
Hey Larry,
Not quite 11pm EST Aaaaaaaaaaand –
All the info suddenly dries up online hours and hours ago? ( it was still daytime then)
Massive voices going eerily quiet and/or spouting stuff that is not the usual, before going quiet hours earlier than usual?
What the heck is going on? Did peeps just burn out all at once?
Is Putin/Russia under Nuclear Blackmail right now?
Are the Wagner Bases in Belarus actually being built? Anyone got any pics of the construction?
Something funky is up. Either Russia is seeing threats of a wmd nature somewhere (or something similar), or I would expect a campaign to kick off soon from the Russians.
No way everyone starts acting weird at the same time…
Errr – unless perhaps they all got the dementia addled clot shot. My family members that got it are getting observably more retarded by the day. So there is that.
Anyways I’m out, will check back tomorrow (unless this bothers me so bad I cant sleep)
What do you mean about going “quiet”? Please elaborate.
several of my bookmarked smo sources got quiet or were weirding out of their normal convos slightly, and went quiet hours earlier than usual instead of posting their usual war clips and snark to each other.
Was trying to find anything on the wagner camps and I cannot. And that weird blackmail comment by Putin raised the hairs on my neck.
Several of my usual news sources for the smo went quiet as they usually do at sleep time, just hours too early.
Moar— (and feel free to delete my posts sir, I am not here for attention)
All of these are well known twitter accounts such as geroman, rybar force, zoka, fennec, ayden, war moniter and on and on and on. Most went into retweet mode hours earlier than usual. Some seemed…. off? a bit today too later in the day.
spetsnaz 007 took off yesterday, and even sprinter was weird too.
Just little things you might not notice unless you had monitored these accounts for a long time now.
Also the —hole of the internet was weird today too. (a well known cesspit)
Again, I am odd man out on these speculations. First of all, contracts were up when Prigozhin started his rattlings about ammunition & Shogui etc in May and have been “provisional”. Changes and recruitment contracts were being administered by MOD of Russia. Belarus was already in play, as everyone has known, another attempted coup was being planned for Belarus. So, the “re-ordering” of the “contracted Wagner” soldiers were now going to be under MOD Russia “directly”, the base in Belarus of course, was of course in the planning and making, coinciding with the stationing of the tactical nukes. None, I repeat..none of the “Wagner” soldiers stationed in Belarus are under the command and control of Progozhin. Absolutely neither Putin nor Medevev would have planned or ordered any such thing as having or had a”private mercenary group” around a tactical nuke site with Progozhin in charge.
Where they “ended up, was what was planned and navigated by MOD Russia long ago, and Progozhin was not going to be in charge of any soldiers in either Ukraine or Belarus except a possible force of 8-10k fighting in terriotories that “were NOT ” part of the Contitutionally adopted Russian lands. After the Bakmut, and all the rantings, Progozhin was being shifted from large urban warfare in Ukraine to small assault forces.
His contract and his “business” was taking a turn in a way that was displeasing to him.
I am absolutely sure that Progozhin was VERY unhappy with Gerasimov and Shogui. He refused to accept that Russian Constitution DOES NOT allow PMCs to operate on Russian “territory” or any part of “Russia”.
The DUMA is currently looking at making changes to the Legislation regarding PMC’s, but Prigozhozin failed to “accept”, that now, those territories are Constitutionally recognized as part of Russia, and that when his contracts were expired, in order to stay in those Constitutional adopted lands, they would have to become a part of MOD of Russia.
If anyone knows Putin, he is “Lawyer” first, a strict observer of Laws and his Constitution.
We have witnessed over and over how Putin has legalistically, throughout his 22 years, gone to the Duma and done everything by the Law to inject “change”. He doesn’t willy nilly ignore and make up excuses and color outside the lines to get what he wants.
None of this was some planned “3d” chess. Progozhin acted for his own self interests. He felt he had enough support to cause trouble for the MOD of Russia, saw his “power” and “business” slipping, and made a slimy power play. Progozozhin is a traitor and a man that was desperate to hold onto glory.
We have seen Putin’s patience in these situations before, the shooting down of Russian civilian airlines by both Turkey and Israel. We saw how in the end, as of now, how both of these nations, and their national leaders, are not crossing Putin. His patience with these crazed momentary mad people, sometimes does pay off down the road. It may be that Putin is hoping for the same reticence from Progozhin. We all remember the Chechans. Anything can happen.
So, absolutely no “planned -gotcha West” thing here. Just simply a guy who would not accept his contract was over, the SMO could not continue as it started with Wagner because of change of Constitutional Territories, and an inflated ego that maybe many of these men would want to join and become MOD Russian soldiers upset him.. Every soldier then and now still has that choice (except the ones that publicly humiliated MOD and the Russian people).
Another thing I believe is clear, and I hope others consider…. Stop “analyzing” every single Russian move and event as having something to do with “the West”… Every day it is getting clearer and clearer that Russia doesn’t give a hang nail what the “West and Nato” “think”or are “doing” or are “planning”. Putin and Mod don’t sit around and think “how can we fool the West today” ?, what “psyop” and “informational warfare” can we taunt “the West” with this week?” That’s completely Biden Admin, NATO and EU way of life and how they operate day and night. But it’s all of us, because that West narcissism, where everything is about “us” the great “West” is getting nauseating, even to me.
Russia is in the business of taking care and strengthening Russia. They “West” hasn’t yet grasped… they don’t give a s*it what we think or want. They’re done playing games, and honestly, from the tone of the WH recently, the “there is no evidence that there is any threat to the Zaphozhia NNP”… coming out today, I believe they have realized… this Progozhin thing, has done nothing but make Putin angry as hell. The endless NATO taunts and tests. How dangerous it was to back Progozhin openly and want Russian bloodshed.
Soon and very soon.. you will see a barrage of “peace” ideas. Germany and his band of Peaceniks he’s putting together as stated in The news. Not that I think any of it will do any good. Total capitulation of Ukraine is whats on the table, and NATO going back to their corner, is the “deal”, they can take that, or go to an expansion of SMO to War. Putin is finished with liars and traitors, and that includes Progozhin.
Nothing at all wrong with this theory. as a matter of fact, it most likely has a much higher probability of being the correct take than the way I was leaning in my thoughts with some of my 3d chess ideas.
10/10 post Trubind1. Nothing wrong with this theory at all.
There is still about zero chance that the powers that be on all sides did not use this as an opportunity to try to move troops around under the radar though. It would be madness and most likely dereliction of duty not to at least make the attempt at hiding force movements this past weekend.
3,000 troops and 60 trucks means 50 men in a truck. I’ve been retired from the U.S. Army for a long time, but I doubt the Russian trucks are that much bigger than American trucks. I would estimate 20 soldiers to a truck, and they aren’t going to be in great shape for combat when they arrive at their target. that would mean 1,200 soldiers on their way to Moscow. I doubt Wagner Group has meals for very many days, or ammunition, or any of the universe of supplies a modern army needs to maintain its existence.