I see a lot of things going on in the background. I list them here.
USA/THE WEST
Sullivan says a communication link has been opened with Moscow. To talk about what? If you take the official Washington line there is nothing to talk about – Moscow must give up. Is Washington preparing for a different conversation?
After the accusations that Russia is considering nuclear weapons Blinken made it clear that no preparatory signs had been seen. Somewhat of a toning down of rhetoric.
Zelensky applied for fast-track NATO membership and was instantly slapped down by Sullivan – “at a different time.”
Weariness is visible – three recent American polls show a desire for diplomacy, “less concern” and that Ukraine doesn’t make the list. I’m reminded of a comment by Gonzalo Lira that Russia should just make the war boring to Americans.
The economic effects of the boomeranging sanctions are inexorably tightening in Europe. We’re now hearing about possible bank collapses and reading cheerful pieces on how to keep mold out of cold damp houses. With Nordstream out of contention. no improvement is visible. Time is on Russia’s side. At some point the European population will have had enough. Protests are growing. The overwhelming rejection in the German parliament of increased support for Ukraine points this way.
America is better off but is also feeling the boomerang. Inflation is rising and what will happen to gasoline prices (a huge concern) when they stop draining the Strategic Oil Reserve? And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.
WESTERN ARMS RUNNING OUT
The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine. A CNBC report speaks of America being out of 155mm guns and ammunition (manufacturers are being sought); it has already sent ten years’ production of Javelins! The latest HIMARS “sent” haven’t been built yet.
Similar stories from Europe. The available stock of ex-Soviet equipment is gone – 28 (“modernized” 20 years ago) T55 tanks scrounged from Slovenia are the latest “wonder weapon”.
The West does not have the industrial capacity to sustain modern war. Everything that has been sent to Ukraine so far has been from existing stocks. Western militaries must either start cannibalizing their standing armies or stop. Then what? Western weapons made the September offensive possible.
INTERNATIONAL
The West’s “mojo” isn’t working. Scholtz received little support from his Gulf visit and neither did Biden from Saudi Arabia. China, India and Brazil abstained on the American UNSC motion to censure Russia’s absorption of the four regions. “90% of the world” isn’t following the lead of the so-called “international community”. Many countries see the world changing and have picked their side or are waiting to see how it plays out (Egypt and Saudi Arabia are feeling out the SCO, for example).
RUSSIA
There are many videos of trains carrying heavy equipment west. I’ve seen tanks, Mstas, BM-21s, Iskanders and lots of BMPs. Nothing suggests that Russia is running out of anything. This suggests preparations for a large-scale Russian Army armored offensive along traditional deep penetration doctrine.
The status of the new four regions opens the possibility of more forceful actions by the Russian Armed Forces as such because they are “defending the Motherland”.
There is a good deal of plausible speculation that the 300 thousand man call up may free up soldiers in the rear. If so, the effect of the extra troops may be felt sooner than many expect.
As far as razputitsa (распутица), winter and other things beloved of TV commentators, it’s not the USSR in 1941. There are a lot of paved roads and Russians are well-equipped and experienced for fighting in winter. Therefore there is no guarantee that things will be quiet for four or five months.
“We call on the Kiev regime to immediately cease fire and all hostilities; to end the war it unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table.” said Putin a couple of days ago. Was this his last offer before a much more powerful attack?
PREMONITIONS OF WHAT?
In short, the Western plan is not working. The sanctions cost the West more, it’s running out of weapons to send and there are signs of softening. If Moscow’s plan was to move slowly and wait them out, then it’s working.
One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit. But it’s hard to see, given all the hyperbole, how the West’s present rulers could admit to such an enormous failure. Electoral replacement, while happening, is too slow. And why would Moscow ever trust anything the West says? A unilateral surrender by Kiev is possible but the only way I could see it is if Zelensky were overthrown. Therefore I rate a negotiated ending as not impossible at the moment but of very low probability. But time is on Russia’s side and October’s improbability may be March’s desperate desire.
More likely to me is, to use a World War II analogy, that now that Kiev’s Operation Citadel in the Kursk Salient is petering out, it’s time for a really powerful mechanized offensive accompanied by strikes deep in the rear with no holding back. One must remember that Putin said they hadn’t really started – I think we’re about to see what he meant. And sooner, I would guess, rather than later. I can’t imagine that anyone in Moscow wants this thing still going on next February.
This is interesting! Each pipeline had two strings and only three strings were damaged! After inspection, one can be used to send gas to Germany! Some saboteur planner in “Intelligence” will be in trouble over that!
Of course Russia will do a forensic examination of the evidence to identify the culprit. There is always plenty of debris and all explosives have a chemical signature, the factory of origin can be identified.
“Russian gas flow to European customers may be resumed via the remaining Nord Stream 2 string after Gazprom checks that it’s working correctly, the Russian state energy major said in a statement on Monday.
The string – Line B of the pipeline – was not damaged in last week’s explosions that punctured Line A and both strings of Nord Stream 1.”
https://www.rt.com/business/563967-russia-gazprom-nord-stream-revival/
They plated four explosive charges but hit the one string of Nord stream 2 twice. So the blame I think is not on the planning but on the execution.
That’s interesting! I’ve been through a LOT of articles and do recall something like that. Scott Ritter recently said any good Weapons Inspector, from both the debris and explosive residue, could tell what country made devices. Sometime even the factory that made the explosives. He also said he thinks the Russians have already collected the proof.
If NATO goes in publicly, it could be another MH17 situation.
Russian intelligence indicates they already have proof, we’ll see sooner, rather than later, I hope. Normally, I’d rather wait for a real investigation than long jump to a conclusion, but in this case, between Mr. Ritter, who said he won’t play golf with Larry ever again and Bernhard’s ” Moon of Alabama”, the circumstantial evidence points in one direction. The question is: To what degree were the Poles involved? John Helmer has written about that!
What is your source for one string being blown twice? Is there a map or chart showing the pipeline paths and the location of the breaks? The depth there has been described as being around 40 meters, plus or minus. I check diving guide sites for likely visibility, and was surprised to see this is considered one of the peak times of year for wreck diving. I didn’t get a conclusive idea of how much light and/or visibility there is “on site”.
It’s Fleet Week in San Francisco now, I’ve seen a carrier task force approaching the Golden Gate Bridge and the helos were in the van with “eyes” lowered in the water, looking for unwanted “visitors”. I wonder what the six different helos, taking turns and all using the same call sign, flying a pattern over the site were equipped with?
Its even in wikipedia, both English and German.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosionen_an_den_Nord-Stream-Pipelines
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_gas_leaks
So… 4 pipes, 4 charges, but 2 charges placed on 1 pipe so only 3 of the 4 pipes were knocked out?
Well, I think we now have definitive proof of who did it. It was a SEAL job. No way Army SF or MARSOC would have F-ed up that bad.
“Line B of the pipeline – was not damaged”
Failure or deliberate?
Perhaps it was targeted but the device used failed.
This might mean that the device can be found intact and identified.
Or perhaps the device did detonate but was ineffective, in which case it will not be intact.
Or it may have been deliberate to leave one line of NS2 intact. Did anyone think of that?
Germany depends on Russian gas, and it cannot substitute it in sufficient quantity. It cannot even substitute it through other Russian gas pipelines. So killing all 4 lines would kill the German industry.
Killing 3 lines lets Germany know how vulnerable it is – and still might give it enough gas to get through the winter. Actually I think the fact that one line of NS2 is left makes it more likely that Germany itself was involved in blowing up the lines.
@Martina,
I think it was Russia for exactly the reasons you cite. Why do you think it was Germany? Does Germany have the capacity? I’m no expert on these matters but doesn’t Russia have the most knowledge of exactly how these pipelines are built and how best to disable them?
And isn’t it clever to do something that Russia knows everyone will suspect the US of doing? Blinken is a jackass and doesn’t know how to express himself but his words prove nothing – except that.
If Russia did it, why were six helos taking turns flying the same pattern, exactly over the site, all using the same call sign right before it blew? Three of the six tail numbers were observed.
Russian Intelligence indicated they already have proof it was the USA. The time will come for them to show their cards.
Scott Ritter says there is always forensic evidence laying around and thinks the Russians have already collected it at the site. I don’t know, I prefer to wait for the evidence. Speculating is creative thinking, best done without leaping to conclusions. There’s less walking back to do.
The Swamp Critters making USA policy make up different stories, almost daily! They’re narrative driven, whatever works at the moment.
more likely, if it was russia, which I do not believe, the reason was so that germany has to decide MUCH more quickly whether to green light repairs… Germany can no longer wait till next summer and say oops we’re done sanctioning. To have gas for NEXT year the repairs have to be done NOW. When the pipeline was intact the germans could suck up one cold winter and at any time say uncle…
not my belief… but if sponge brain and his retard contingent couldn’t think of this spin then they really are truly retarded.
why destroy a $23 billion investment which was still making millions for Russia through Nordstream 1 when you could just turn it off. Russians dont waste money, they would never destroy the only real leverage they had over Europe and they always play the long game, NS2 has the possibility that it can work in the future, 10/20 years from now moving gas or hydrogen fuel. There are precisely no reasons for Russia to do it and a million for the US, NATO etc to do so. Word has it that Germany was in secret talks to possibly use NS2 over winter, of course there are no secrets in reality but this is unconfirmable.
Yes, Germany has the ability to disable them.
As for how to build them, I am sure Russia has better knowledge. I am not sure that Germany could build pipelines if it wanted to, but it certainly has all the knowledge and capabilitiy it needs to destroy them.
I think it was Germany because the German government seemed so relieved when the pipelines were blown up. They had been under pressure from the street to open NS2. Then, suddenly, NS2 is gone and they seem totally relaxed.
Now it turns out the NS2 is not totally destroyed – but they still claim that NS2 is completely gone. They also ignore that Russia says that the damage to the other 3 lines can be repaired, MSM still claiming that the lines are beyond repair.
you are an idiot
Russia can just turn of the tap, not to blow to hell $20 billion infrastructure. Didn’t Flight24 showed NATO helicopters hovering over? Didn’t NATO conduct maneuver 20 miles near? I find this persistence of psyco-ops “Russia did it to itself” is preposterous.
The Russians would not be stupid enough to destroy their own multi-billion USD pipeline system. If those evil Rooskies want Germans to freeze to death in the dark, all they had to do was close some valves- remember- it was THEIR system and THEY had control of it! Conversely, if they wanted to allow Germany to have some cheap gas, they could simply open the valves- as Gonzalo Lira would say, “righty-tighty, lefty loosey.”
If it has/had a failed device that didn’t blow, that makes ID pretty certain. I hadn’t thought of this in the deluge of articles being written, but dedl said one string got blown twice. Having that pointed out, I recall something like that. There will be plenty of forensic evidence, Russian Intelligence says they have proof. Gazprom has to inspect the “intact” string, that crime scene would be impossible to “scrub” completely and not be detected doing it. Scott Ritter thinks the Russians have already been in, for evidence collection. How THAT was done, would be a good story in itself!
With Russia’s extensive electronic monitoring and listening capabilities, they must have known that the US Naval was running under-sea demolition exercises in the area of the pipelines in the weeks prior to the pipelines’ sabotage.
Maybe there was nothing they could do to prevent the sabotage.
Maybe they sat back and let it happen, so the Germans could see what kind of American “allay” and “friend” they have, making the German people totally dependent on high-priced natural gas from American companies, instead of receiving reliable, long-term, reasonably-priced deliveries of Russian natural gas.
i don’t see any reason to believe at all that russia had prior knowledge of this attack. Possible but seems 100% speculation without evidence. Claiming they effectively monitor all of their pipelines at all times seems unlikely to me. Though I supppose its possible
All major nations monitor ALL vessels in the shallow Baltic sea (and elsewhere), or do you think Russia does not track NATO subs (boats are tracked by SAR satellite) (and vice versa)? Vessels, subs, ROVs, have a unique prop wash sound. There are limitations in the open ocean, but in the Baltic Sea?
The discussion here is mostly related to military science – it aint GazProm that cares!
I get all that… you could be right… but I don’t believe the whole pipeline was monitored in such a way that would require that russia saw in advance and knew what was happening. It is pure speculation for me to say yay or nay, I suspect for you as well
I read that Russia are not permitted by Denmark to investigate now. Their hands are tied, probably the same as it was before the accident – they’re being squeezed out if what the chihuahua states want to turn into “NATO lake”
Nord Stream pipelines can be restored – Moscow
The process would be time-consuming and costly, according to Russia’s deputy PM
The pipeline was made in sections that can be both lowered and lifted to the surface, for repairs. The Russians made it, they can fix it.
This means some hope for Europe!
https://www.rt.com/business/563912-nord-stream-pipes-restored/
Nuke Kiev and be done with it.
Yes
I am inclined to agree with you. Take Lviv with them!
So, mass murder of civilians does not trouble you. What’s it like to have no conscience?
In a war, there are no rules so to speak. But I agree, that killing civilians would be very bad decision. If I was at the helm and had to do something like that, I would publicly announce the hit and give the people 48 hours to vacate the area. 48 hours is not much, but everyone would be warned and could even leave on foot.
But Russia won’t do such stunts. If it will hit someone, it will be a vital target like the Pentagon or some military base in Europe. That would be one message the west won’t misinterpret.
Excuse me, but the five-sided wind tunnel is not at all vital.
Geneva convention? If you lose, precedents have been set. The only war for which you are right is WW3 as there will be no humans left to care or prosecute or blog.
It’s fine, I sleep better without it.
The Russians have a “No first use” doctrine. The US had something like that until April this year.
Russia is civilized and, so far, done everything legally and by the book, dotting all the “i”s and crossing all the “t”s.
Kiev is likely to get some “kinetic” attention, remember many of the Ukrainians are “brother and sister Slavs”, the goal has been de-Nazification. This is The Great Patriotic War 2.0.
Russia is civilized and has a long history, how do you think they want this written in the History of Civilization?
I hope you’re kidding!
There are some very good videos on YouTube. Nordstream has a channel that details the construction and installation.
One interesting video showed a splicing operation all done underwater. A submersible and movable grappling crane to life the segment off the seabed. Then a hyperbaric welding device that beveled the edges then welded the seam. After which a non corrosive heat shrink was applied then the entire gap filled with hard urethane foam.
The technology was amazing.
The Russians can fix this I’m sure they can do it as fast as they care to.
Please share the links to good videos of the pipe construction! Did you get any sense of how much sunlight there is down there and the visibility distance? Of course, lifting the pipe stirs up silt…IIRC the tides are pretty strong up there, which may or may not help visibility, I’m not a diver. Caribbean snorkeling yes, cold water diving, no.
Diving at the depth and temperature has many challenges. Visibility is always limited at that depth, saturation mixed gas is required.
It seems the systems are mainly robotic nit sure about the hyperbaric welding module.
Here is their channel, they have a ton of very interesting videos.
https://m.youtube.com/user/NordStreamAG
Is a comprehensive aerial bombardment (power system, communication, rail, water, command and control) including western Ukrainian the next phase. I cannot envision Moscow letting Kiev/NATO continue with their uninterrupted logistical/reinforcement scheme any longer. Making the war extremely costly and painful seems to be in Moscow’s best interest. Your thoughts?
Agreed! MASSIVE missile strikes and Comprehensively SATURATED Carpet bombing of Kiev all the way to western Ukraine until they scream… Then for another month or 3 for good measure. They’ll pray for nukes.
They had their chances to change course… Now they reap their reward!
When did they have their chance? Zelensky rang on a peace platform. The Tribe may enjoy killing Slavs, but nobody else does. Broaden your horizons a bit. Spend an hour at the Oriental Dance Forever channel on YouTube. Ukrainian belly-dancers are amazing. They used to enjoy competing with Russians before the SMO, and will again after. This isn’t a video game, you know.
Zelensky had agreed terms with Russia. The West forced him to withdraw.
Without Western interference there would have been peace.
VirgoAtheist is writing from prison where his psychopathy has left him with little else to do
It’s an interesting question,not being privy to Russian high command decision making,it’s a bit hard to understand why they have not made significant use of heavy strategic bombers,perhaps that will soon change.
I think the goal was to lessen the damage to infrastructure to show that the SMO was not against the Ukrainian people but against the elites that run the country. Russia may still not completely devastate Ukraine’s infrastructure. It seems to me that Putin has kept one eye focused on what happens after any settlement is reached, which has hamstrung the military side of the operation but may make better sense in the long run. Just my thoughts.
Because U.S. C4ISRNET is in play, the Russians would have to demolish as much of it as possible in the border states, including satellites. Maybe they’re not there yet. Tis’ a Rubicon not yet crossed. America and its vassals would have to raise the ante for the Russians to ratchet up the hurt.
why no carpet bombs? Because they don’t follow Anglo-American military strategy. Who has devotedly carpet bombed civilians since WWII? Russians or Anglo-Americans. Russian military strategy will primarily fight only military targets. Russia is more intent on playing by the rules of international law than the Anglo-Americans ever were. Anglo-American warmongers talk a lot about peace, justice, democracy, liberty and international law. However, this is only the mask meant to cover up their true and evil intentions.
In psychology it is estimated that about 5% of people are psychopathic. Most are so good at masking their inclinations that normal people discover their true character too late.
Because they are technically not at war yet.
War can last. And will.
Sorry but i see no quick end to this. Even if the Brandon administration is put in minority this fall , what could the other faction do best than the other was in the end ?
There is a lot of way of winning a war , but in this case , does winning on 404 is the real victory everyone is looking for ?
Nah … we all know what that shit is all about : the downfall of the American hegemony. So , if I can give my modest advice : never expect things will not get worse… they often do. How fast they will get from bad to worse depends. China and India have some trump cards (if I can say so) in hands, and anyone playing the game should ask themselves if and when they will be played.
I think in secret Germany is working hard on a peace deal, that is what made it necessary to blow up the pipelines.
Don’t overestimate the Germans. They are like Korea and Japan. There is no independent diplomatic power over foreign policy. I live in Korea.
They build NS1 and 2 against the will of the Americans. There is some independence strategy.
My thinking, too. Pressure from industry and voters increasing and was on the verge of influencing politicians.
Bill Cosby had an old comedy routine back in the 60’s. “Never Challenge ‘Worse'”
Never say.”it can’t get worse because Worse is standing right behind you waiting to be challenged. Ready to put a big Worse right on your ass.”
Old Yorkshire rhyme:
Never mind if things look glum,
You’re sure to find there’s worse to come.
I am of the opinion that the US wants this war to continue for as long as possible. Adverse consequences for Ukraine and Europe are of little concern. That’s how psychopaths roll.
The US military weapons stock is excluded from what Ukraine is given. It has zero impact on US combat readiness. Ukraine did not get the best of anything.
I don’t share your enthusiasm that the US is getting clobbered here.
China simply can’t dump US assets. It has to carefully ease out of them or it hurts itself.
Saudi wants more love and weapons from the us and a harder line on Iran.
Russia MiR cards are being declined by Asian countries under US threats.
This all has a long way to go.
It’s is truly unfortunate Kofi Annan is not secretary general right now, he was a wise man. Guteres is out of his depth.
He’s out of his depth in a puddle. When Annan retired, his chosen replacement was Shashi Tharoor, his under secretary General. But the USA, explicitly admitting that they were never going to risk a strong UNSG again swung it to Ban ki Moon. Guess who did that? John Bolton, of course!
Tharoor had/has his vulnerabilities – like women, including the one hepulled along at the UN. Then, in India, that got taken to another level entirely. Folks who know or want to know, will know what I’m referring to.
But all of this is neither here nor there – it’s a game for grown-up now, like Lavrov, or if you want me to throw out an Indian name or two, sure, I’d count Ajit Doval and Vik Sold among the grownups .
But please, let’s not sully the discourse by bringing up the name of that clown Tharoor.
What assets are you referring to?
According to this recent article in Global Times, China’s US treasury holdings are lowest since 2010. The health of the dollar is dependent on the purchase of US treasury bonds by private and public entities, especially Japan and China the two largest holders. And Japan’s reduction of US treasury bonds is even more severe than China’s. Private people and states are turning to real assets like gold and natural resources/commodities as the US government continues to swamp itself in debt devaluing the purchasing power of the dollar.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265887.shtml
People dying, billions of US dollars spent, economy tanking. And we decide now to open communications? Everything wrong with the American political system captured in that statement.
“large-scale Russian Army armored offensive along traditional deep penetration doctrine.” agreed.
The real “Game Changer” in this War was Russia’s Annexation (by a Vote) of the four Counties (Oblasts) in the East of the Ukraine. I really doubt that any of the ‘western politicians’ or their bankster/WEF owners truly understand what has transpired. Just like how Crimea ‘returned’ to Russia (also by a Vote) now this part of the Ukraine is (once again) a part of Russia, there is No going Back, either for the ‘west’ or Russia.
In spite of many clear pronouncements by Russian Officials, including President Putin, that once their Congress Ratified the Annexation these Oblasts are RUSSIA, and any more attacks there are an Act of War, it is clear that none of the ‘western’ pols, oligarchs, or common people realize what the next Escalation by the Bear entails. It may take a Month or two, but inevitably, the Red Army is preparing to put a Smackdown on all of the ukronazi / Natostan troops and mercs in those areas.
How Far they go after that depends on How Fast Nato and the FUSSA can realize that nothing short of ‘Total Surrender’ of the whole Project to use the Ukraine and its corrupt, zionist occupation ‘government’ to attack Russia will suffice.
I like your usage of “The Red Army” !
My SS hit this weekend so I went and bought 4 cases of Jack Daniels and 4 x 30 can cases of Budweiser at the State Line (Idaho/Washington) store.
Filled up the 05 Jeep with regular gas at $4.49/gallon. INSANE!
Luckily, my tobacco plants are curing in the shed, my Mullein plants are already dried and processed, my tomatoes are still growing like crazy and my pears are ready to can.
https://suzycohen.com/articles/mullein/
My beautiful (legal Rx) cannabis crop is a week away from harvest and it is 75 and clear in Spokane today with amazing weather forecast for October.
Everything grows in Spokane if you water it.
I grow from cannabis from my own seed and grow the seeds for nutrition.
https://wayofleaf.com/cannabis/seeds/why-you-should-eat-marijuana-seeds
Our store room is filled, ammo is stocked, and all the boomsticks cleaned and ready.
We are gonna sit back, enjoy the fall and watch the “show”.
Retirement is good, and glad I made it as I am in good health and can still do 75 for 25 without a coronary.
I am UN-VAXED and pure blood.
Hope you all are prepped for any outcome as none of it looks very good to me.
Be well,
Gunny
Spokane, USA
#GardasilVaxKilledJessica ~ 12/16/1993-12/24/2013
James H Kuntsler posted this today. Credible I think
“Monkey Werx,” notable for tracking the world-wide military flight movements, presents a comprehensive play-by-play of just exactly how the mission was accomplished. I’ll summarize but you can read his full report (click here) for yourself.
MW reports that overnight on the 26th of September, a Navy P8 Poseidon submarine-hunter jet flew out of the US to the Baltic. It did not land in the UK to refuel — thus avoiding any tracking complications — but rather rendezvoused over Grudziadz, Poland, with a US Bart-12 mid-air refueling plane, which it hooked up with for more than an hour. The P8 was equipped with Mk54 air-launched torpedoes. After un-docking from the Bart-12 refueler, the P8 followed a route west along the Nord Stream pipelines, descended to bomb-run altitude, and dropped its weapons. Kaboom. Then, fully refueled, the P8 flew directly back to the USA. Days later, when confronted at the UN by Russia with a yes-or-no question as to US responsibility for the Nord Stream caper, the US representatives refused to answer one way or another. Cute.”
https://www.monkeywerxus.com/blog/the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-sabotage
Great link, many thanks.
Only a confession could meaningfully add to the evidence he presents.
That P8’s mission was to either execute, or monitor the attack. Flying directly from the US to hang around Bornholm Is. at the moment the pipelines are hit and then directly back to the US is impossible to explain otherwise, and everybody knows it.
Whatever its exact role, an American P8 was involved in a direct attack on Europe’s existential viability. Europe has been betrayed. America is telling Europe in no uncertain terms that it’s being cut adrift at the moment it ceases to enhance American power.
Gazprom says it can restore the pipelines and with that Europe’s viability, but the sanction regime currently prevents them from moving forward. It remains to be seen whether Europe’s become truly suicidal, but the vital signs look pretty bad right now.
Thanks again.
I watch monkeywerx a lot… I don’t really trust his analysis of anything but what he does well is track aircraft and interpret what they’re doing much better than I could… I found his video on this topic interesting
Pure speculative BS. The pipeline is too well armored and if the missile missed by say 10-15 ft – no effect. Estimates are 500 kg on target needed. If the US had used a 5000 kg missile it could probably drop within 50 ft.
Have you ever geo-rectified by sonar underwater targets? It ain’t easy unless you drop the pingers and then everyone in the neighborhood hears you and that is not for an air launched torpedo going on dead reckoning against a noiseless target. And given the lousy performance of US smart weapons you would have to be an idiot to rely on them. The non-idiot plan is to wander your vessel over the site, drop a ROV, place the explosives on target with encrypted remote detonation, drift away, and not give a damn that you were tracked.
Plausible deniability in the fact free media environment? Who cares! Look, the mafioso wants the victim to know who done it, that it can happen again, and that there is nothing the victim can do. Of course is pipelines in the Gulf start leaking… NATO economies are a lot more vulnerable… But what are the Germans going to do? Show a spine? Not until they far far far right.
God bless Gunny.
With ya all the way.
I have everything but the tobacco, instead I make my own beer.
— Brown Water Navy Vet
Thank you sir.
Been smoking since I was 12. Almost 63 now… lol
Been growing and rolling my own tobacco since 2015 here in Spokane.
Still blow a 99 on the blood oxygen for some crazy reason while all of my lifelong friends have COPD.
Guess I was blessed in that way, but lost my beautiful daughter to the Gardasil vax.
Life is strange.
Be well and Carry on,
Gunny
E-7 Ret.
78-03
Hi Alex,
I have a huge grape vine on the fence and give them to my awesome neighbor to make wine.
Another neighbor makes grape jam and taught me how to can stuff.
Spokane is a great city.
Nice people who actually greet you, very affordable and a great growing season.
We own our home and live off our retirement comfortably but frugally.
Spokane has our own hydro dams on the Spokane river (one dam specifically powers our WATER PUMPS and it is 70 years old and EMP proof) and Spokane sits on the largest freshwater aquifer in North America with 10 TRILLION gallons!
https://www.spokanecounty.org/1219/Spokane-Valley-Rathdrum-Prairie-Aquifer
Spokane has gotten a bit “lefty” in the last decade with all of the Universities here. My son graduated from Gonzaga in 2011, but is still mostly conservative.
I love it here.
Gas is over $6/gallon on the Seattle side of the state.
Be well,
Gunny
Hi, This is Califas Gunny.
“Filled up the 05 Jeep with regular gas at $4.49/gallon. INSANE!”
It is $6.09 for regular here, and it will go up, as will yours.
> “Sullivan says a communication link has been opened with Moscow. To talk about what?”
> “The West is running out of arms to send Ukraine.”
presumably, the West would like to put the war on hold until stocks are rebuilt.
Does Sullivan think for a second that Russia doesn’t know exactly who blew up the pipeline and how?
The US and UK will of course veto and UNSC examination of the evidence but the German people will know what happened. By January I don’t expect them to be in a forgiving mood after they burned the last leg of grandmothers antique bedroom set to roast the neighbors cat.
“By January I don’t expect them to be in a forgiving mood after they burned the last leg of grandmothers antique bedroom set to roast the neighbors cat.”
Funniest thing I have read in a month!
Made my night.
(Don’t forget they will mostly be unemployed as all the industry has shut down..)
Thank you.
Gunny
> presumably, the West would like to put the war on hold until stocks are rebuilt.
“Don’t shoot, we’re reloading!”
The business in the Ukraine ought not bring us to forget the still-standing draft treaties proposed in December.
Nukes out of Europe and NATO retreat to line 1997…
see Gilbert D > https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2021/12/19/a-surprise-russian-ultimatum-new-draft-treaties-to-roll-back-nato/
Once Bear is aroused, it’s either fight or run away, and nobody ever beat the Red Army.
“And if China dumps a lot of US currency the situation will get worse.”
Who would buy it from them?
Make the pice low enough and there will be buyers.
You can exchage money for goods and services. They can still buy all kinds of stuff for USD.
I understand they have been buying a lot of farmer land and not just in the US.
Great summary of the many different moving parts of this conflict. Thank you.
The situation calls for a negotiated settlement and it is good to see that Mr. Putin, despite everything, appears to remain open to one. Given the dire situation facing the West and in particular, Europe, any reasonable observer would assume that this would be the natural outcome.
Alas, I highly doubt it. Putting aside the doubts about its legitimacy, the current American leadership is incompetent and hubristic. It seems that despite everything they touch resulting in disaster, they do not have the humility to take responsibility and change course.
They are consumed by their Russia project, started under Obama who I suspect still runs the (clown)show, to conduct regime change in Moscow. Quite apart from their despicable handling of Ukraine, they are willing to conduct state terrorism (NS1/2) and to ditch their strongest ally in continental Europe (Germany) to pursue their objective.
Therefore, I suspect that Mr. Putin and his team will unleash the full force of the Russian military on Ukraine. I think they’ll take the whole country and use it as an example and warning to the West, and in particular Washington, DC that the world truly has changed.
I am not sure that the Biden Junta thinks that They are leaving behind a string of disasters; to the contrary, They think that things are on track.
Immivasion- Score! Millions of useless or actively pernicious invaders was the game plan, just ask Mayorkas.
Energy Sector – The Green Scam is being advanced, just like in Deutschland. Massive investment in “renewables”, while are in the final analysis as useful as tits on a boar hog for society, but it sure lines the correct pockets, and reduces mobility and agency for us proles. Depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to mollify citizen discontent in the run up to the mid-terms is also proceeding according to plan.
Economy/Financial – Trashing small businesses keeps the transnational corporations on side, they’re licking their chops. Destruction of livelihoods makes the populace desperate enough to accept restructuring of the role of the Federal government in their lives; I.e., you want to have a job, you want to eat, you must play ball. And further on that, here comes not merely a fiat currency unresponsive to the will of the people, but a digital currency, fully naked to government monitoring, and controllable by the government, and your access to which is subject to limits or outright confiscation depending upon your being a good boy.
Civil Liberties – Surely you jest, after reading the preceding account. The Junta’s object is your disempowerment to say no, and to deploy the means to unperson you at will. For the Greater Good, of course.
To Them, Their future’s so bright They have to wear dark glasses.
God willing, They are incorrect, but They sure don’t think so, and are acting accordingly.
I agree 100%. That was my point. The Brandon clownshow is so hubristic and delusional, so caught up in their grandiosity, that it would be folly on Putin’s part to assume that they will ever be rational or reasonable.
The problem is even worse. They are extremely dangerous as a result, and therefore could attempt something truly stupid.
Of course Putin would already know this.
“They are consumed by their Russia project, started under Obama who I suspect still runs the (clown)show, to conduct regime change in Moscow.”
The fact that the psychopath Nuland is still influencing policy tells one all he needs to know.
Many American’s are left hoping somehow Russia going into Ukraine will embarrass the US into being sane again… they are in for a world of hurt
There has been no “Red Army” since 1946.
Agree with the assessment of Russia.
1. That the “300k extra troops” will be available much sooner than predicted – like as soon as the Russians can get the forces there there. Forces that are/were ready to go and just waiting on the order. The call-up of Reserves is to replace the troops that are or will be engaged. This will give the Russian military some depth just in case.
2. The razputitsa – again I have been arguing that this will not be a problem. As the article points out – the road systems in Russia/Ukraine are now much, much better than in the 1940s. Its a whole new world. Add to that the Russians have experience in fighting in the razputitsa for over 1000 years. It is worth pointing out that what markedly surprised the Germans most in 1941 when the Soviets sent in the T34s – how agile they were in negotiating the mud etc. May I point out that ALL modern Russian equipment and soldiers are expected to operate on what I call the 50/50 rule – minus 50 deg C to plus 50 deg C, and in ALL conditions.
We have heard the announcements of this powerful Russian blow for months now. I remember Scott Ritter back in March talking about the powerful 1st Tank Army, the most famed tank army etc. Well, it was around Kupyanks and Liman and did not make any difference. They are falling back ever further – Liman, Kremminaya, what’s next? In Kherson region the Russians had to blow up a bridge today to stop the Ukrainians from advancing. I remember Col Macgregor talking about Russians playing target practice with armaments shipments in Western Ukraine. Hasn’t happened. I remember Alex Mercouris months ago talking about Bakhmut and Seversk etc. about to fall. Dima from Military Summary talked about the 600+ jets and helicopters “at the border” with Ukraine. We heard so much about the famed 3rd core – where are they? So on and so on. If this is the game of deception and patience, well, it is the greatest deception the world has seen so far.
By the time all the formalities are done in Moscow (’cause they MUST be done by the book and they MUST take a week+ and they MUST go through 17 votes and signatures), the embarrassment grows and even people who seem to be pretty well informed and patriotic – like Rybar – are starting to bark bad words towards the RFA and the general staff. The public discourse about the whole thing in Russia is becoming loud (Kadirov, Prigozhin, Zyuganov…) and even the most fervent analysts who provide the alternative to the western media – the Duran boys are now discussing scenarios in which Putin is under increasing pressure to show his cards or else. Every time someone asks these questions people like Martyanov say things like “Russians play chess, you don’t know how to play chess, shut up”. OK but this is chess or is it cricket? Eventually some move must be made that makes an obvious difference on the board…
I have been around for almost 5 decades and I spent most of my life closer to Russia (am Slavic) than the West and I think the West is rotten and deserves a jolt/drastic change but I also think I know the Russians a bit. In other words, their maskirovka sometimes deceives themselves as well ;). Time will tell.
Ask yourselves, Oddo, ‘what would taking over the whole of Ukraine solve?“, even if that were what Putin wants to do? Absolutely nothing, zilch, FA, if anything, given what has happened since the invasion, Russia would be surrounded by NATO even more what with Sweden and Finland joining the club, the containment will continue, balkanisation of Russia could eventually happen.
Winning in Ukraine means little, hence the snail like progress of the special op, progress achieved with the smallest number of fighting men.
What Putin thinks he must do is to hurt the grand adversary head on, that’s what he and the Stavka must want, they believe there’s a window of 2-3 years that they have to act, after that the Americans will have both defence and attack systems equivalent or better than the S-range on defence, and the range of attacking missiles travelling at hypersonic speeds, not along a fixed trajectory, capable of sea or ground nap-of-the-earth (NOE).
Putin doesn’t have to win the confrontation, he knows it, nobody can win a war with nukes flying, but he has to inflict enough damage to force the Americans to make some serious concessions, like abandoning the Wolfowitz doctrine (google for it).
Putin must think he can achieve it if the American mainland gets hit with the ultimate killing tool, the West thinks he’s bluffing, Baron reckons he isn’t, he has the backing of the Russian unwashed, something one cannot say about the backing of the Western leaders.
As you say, only time will tell.
You are probably correct, what do I know. Brian Berletic seems to be agreeing with the wait and see approach: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox3uKQdGbIQ&ab_channel=TheNewAtlas
Baron, while I agree with everything you say, the economic war, IMO, is more important, and the only thing that will convince NATO to pull back to western Europe.
The dollar is the ultimate battle ground with the West printing like crazy – US hyperinflation and the US will not be able to afford a European military presence – and without Russian gas Europe cant afford anything either. The only NATO military plan that could have worked is crash the Russian economy by stealing the central bank reserves and pulling swift. It didn’t. Since then, NATO has been winging it.
The US forced the war now, because it needs a captive Europe to impoverish to support the cost of empire – too much printing, the US economy has become too sclerotic – or soviet if you wish (with a Gini that means too few taxpaying folk with any money to support the global empire), and more and more of the South are falling out of the western rentier system into the BRI.
In ten years, the US economy will be small relative to China’s and with money comes friends and influence. The US has stocks of weapons build up over decades, but cant replace them due to no industrial capacity. So the issue was forced by a realistic genocide threat in Donbass/Lugansk. A case of use it or lose it.
I understand your point. The basic question is: Why should we interpret the situation as russian strategy and not as russian weakness? I think the answer lies in the fact that the Russians rather retreat then using their reserves they already have (for example the 3rd corps they created). That tells me two things:
1. The situation is not as bad as it would necessary for the reserves to go in
2. The reserves are hold back for some else operation to come
After the final legal inclusion of the four regions which is still under way the constitutional constraints for the use of armed forces will change. I think we should wait another week to access the situation.
I often wonder whether the whole “heated public discourse” in Russia (appearing to be a quarrel) is actually a psychological operation run by the Russians to make them look weak and draw more “investment” from Ukraine and collective West into the war. They would need people like Kadirov and Prigozhin to be in on this and perhaps people who run Rybar (and who Alex Mercouris wonders about who they really are and how they get theoir info). Who knows what the truth is.
to the extent that russians care at ALL how they look to the west, it may just be an example of how the “evil dictator putin” and his “authoritarian iron fist” don’t have the chilling effect on debate the west likes to think they do.
Great comment.
It’s almost like this whole military operation is just a sideshow for something much bigger, like a conflict between declining Empire and two rising ones. It’s almost like the main goal is not taking a town no one can point on the map, but taking down modern day Roman Empire. It’s almost like thing are just at the beginning, and the end is nowhere to be seen. It’s almost like real life is nothing like a movie or a game.
Not to be dense but the Russians took the same little towns that didn’t matter and cannot be pinpointed on a map – so, they clearly mattered? 😉
According to Ukrainian sources, those towns didn’t matter when Russians took them. 🙂
This thing is just at the beginning, and there will be many more battles lost and won, and many more important/unimportant towns taken/lost. Better get used to it.
My point is the old “not being able to see the forest from all the trees” thing. I am also about 5 decades old Slav, and was sure that I won’t live long enought to see the end of USA Empire. I still don’t think I will, but those younger than me just might.
> One should not rule out the possibility of a negotiated settlement and it may be that NATO realizes in time that it has painted itself into a corner from which that is the only exit.
The whole leadership class has said Putin must not be allowed to win.
Backtracking would mean the entire Western leadership class withdraw, in the hope they are not lynched. However, the nuts in the US will never relinquish global hegemony, and they are de facto NATO
Why are the Americans so afraid of confronting the Russian Forces directly? When Assad got squeezed, could have been deposed he asked his friend Putin to help, Putin did even though Syria isn’t a member of any alliance together with Russia, why cannot Z ask the Americans to do the same? He tries to put pressure on NATO, read the Americans, what with the public signing of a letter asking for an early admission, but gets rebuffed.
The Americans will delay until they’ve developed defence systems capable of stopping Russian missiles – hypersonic, not following a fixed trajectory, capable of nap-of-the-earth (NOE) – sea or ground. Currently, their systems cannot stop all the missiles, they fear Russia will hit the mainland, not yet though, China has to elect a new honcho, October 9 is the date, if Xi gets it again, Russia and China are likely to issue an ultimatum to the Americans – retreat home or else.
That sounds like one heck of a delay.
Americans cannot even produce such weapons, let alone have reliable means to stop them.
It will take at least a decade to work out all the ESG implications, then hire enough engineers of color and diversity to work on the project, but then since math is racist the rocket’s thrust calculations may be off a little.
Alex,
Well said. Provided a satisfying chuckle – especially racist math. Waiting for the day when Lizzo, the shapeshifting freak hippo in human form, twerks in the Oval Office. Perhaps that will be the ultimate perversion that impels God to turn DC into a pillar of salt. One can only hope.
Alex,
Well said. Provided a satisfying chuckle – especially racist math. Waiting for the day when Lizzo, the shapeshifting freak hippo in human form, twerks in the Oval Office. Perhaps that will be the ultimate perversion that impels God to turn DC into a pillar of salt. One can only hope.
FUNNY!
No, there was a treaty in effect that obligated Russia to come to the aid of Syria. The Syrians needed that help, and to the extent that the Russian government was willing to go, it was honored.
The Ukrainians had no such treaty with the West, but as Ukraine was to be on point in NATO’s proxy war, support was given, nonetheless.
My prediction:
We will keep hearing about how Russia is going to use a tactile nuclear missile b/c he is losing. Everybody will be fully prepared for the “inevitable” “pre-emptive” nato nuclear strike to stop and deter this certain doom. Whether they even need a false flag amidst the current hysteria and psychosis is debatable.
At that point, we will be on an Armageddon teeter-totter .
The most severe consequences will be in the 3rd world, for want of food & fuel, millions, if not hundreds of millions will perish.
Third world? What era do you live in? Have you ever been outside your village?
Africa has huge agricultural output, ditto Asia and South America. Very capable of feeding itself if needed. Very technically capable.
Majority capable of subsistence farming provided rains fall. Also capable of own energy and technology production.
South Africa actually had more industry and self sufficiency under sanctions.
Best thing for south America and Africa would be total western sanctions so they can get rid of western products and develop them internally.
Don’t forget these regions supply most of world tea coffee fruit and veg, this bloody third world. Is fully self sufficiency capable.
It is pidly little European countries, think Luxembourg, Malta etc who can’t feed themselves.
Many countries with famine conditions right now. Many are fuel poor and many have to import food. Not all countries are the same, but whenever global GDP contracts, the poorest tend to be the ones scuttled from the life boat.
didnt putin say russia made ukr or something like that.
I think you are referring to the process of adding previously Russian and Polish territories to Ukraine during USSR, which is very briefly summarized here: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-four-oblasts-join-russia.html#more
It is actually pretty funny how when “anti-communization” laws were introduced in Ukraine they read like something to the effect of (not literally) “We renounce all the laws and regulations and decrees introduced under USSR except for those pertaining to the geographic unity of Ukraine”.
OT. Turns out that there were four lines in Nord Stream and only three were damaged.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/single-line-nord-stream-2-can-still-export-gas-analysts-say-2022-09-28/
Who knew?
Actually, anyone might have known. And everyone should’ve known. It was a well known fact that NS1 and NS2 were built with two lines each, for redundancy’s sake.
And there were only three breaches recorded in the first days. But nobody mentioned the fact that there were 4 lines. It was as if the fourth line had been memory holed, to reappear later.
It was reported today that Russian Col. Gen. Alexander Zhuravlyov was fired at commander of Russia’s army in the Kharkiv region. When a baseball team is doing poorly, you don’t fire all the team’s players. Instead, you fire the manager. That seems to be what Russia has decided to to in this instance. The problem is, the Russian soldiers in Ukraine will remain as underperformers, no matter who the new commander is. Expect more major cities currently under Russian control to be seized in coming weeks by the overachieving Ukrainian soldiers.
Why do you think they will underperform? Reasons?
Poor morale, poor training, poor leadership, poorly maintained equipment/weaponry (trucks, tanks, etc.).
Your reply doesn’t provide reasons – merely conclusions unsupported by facts. Perhaps you will deign to explain the fact that, despite the disparity in troop numbers at the beginning of the SMO, to wit, approximately 600,000 Ukrainians vs 160,000 Russian troops with Ukraine having NATO trained troops with eight years to establish fortified defense lines on Donestk and Lugansk and billions in US, NATO and EU supplied weaponry and intel during the ongoing conflict, these alleged under-performing Russian forces managed to take 15% of Ukraine territory.
Russia ought to support Germany (and for that matter the entire EU) in its quest for clean energy, especially wind and solar. Sell them the technology, the industrial products (windmills, regulators, and panels).
Later, after the EU scraps all that crap, offer to build some pipelines across the Baltic…
LMAO. yes it take a LOT of coal to make all those miraculous “green energy ” devices.
Umm, that is not the point, solar, wind, etc., strengthen the economy by canceling some of the economy’s energy costs. The STUPID part is taking the fossil fuel and nuclear power offline. Or mandating electric vehicles before upgrading the grid.
Of course if the population decreases enough, then the numbers work out . . . .
Russian and Allied forces are overextended along a 1000 kilometer front.
Yet, the best that The Ukraine can accomplish, with greater manpower and the full backing of NATO, is a couple salients and murdering a few civilians.
Pathetic.
If not for the thousands of Ukrainian men dying needlessly for the ‘Empire of Lies’, it would be laughable.
However, it is anything but funny. In a bloodletting that would shock the morals of an Aztec Priest, a generation of Ukrainians is being sacrificed to satisfy the perverse desires of the ‘Western Elite’.
It is, as President Putin put it, Satanic.
It is satanic and not their first dance. I truly think there is a faction in the ruling class that gets sexual satisfaction from mass murder.
Think about it, if you were a sociopath with a blood-lust you can get your jellies for a few months, maybe a year murdering a handful of college co-eds, get caught and vilified in public—or —- become a Secretary of State or s Nation Secretary Advisor, engineer the deaths of a million and be lauded in the press as a great man.
The smart ones will choose the latter.
Looking at a map, the obvious move for the Russians is to launch a major offensive from the north towards Dnipro. The best Ukrainian forces are further to the east in Kramatorsk/Sloviansk, and the Russians have succeeded in drawing most of Ukraine’s armor southeast of Kharkov. There is a real chance of trapping most of the Ukrainian army east of the Dnieper. The fact that the Russians have been quiet lately in the Donbass likely means they are amassing forces elsewhere. Just a guess :-).
I’m bored with arguing that Ukraine just spent much of its army and equipment on limited gains. The destruction of NS2 was clearly on the back of the good media – truth is that Ukraine is about to collapse militarily, the hype will soon be over, and Germany furious that it can’t creep back to buy a lot of Russian gas. That much is done.
What is next? How does the Ukraine military collapse?
My hunch is that it collapses when Nato countries recall their “mercenaries”.
Poland and UK have thousands of troops there. US has tonnes of special forces.
The public will not wear running away after spending billions. This has been a huge investment for the West.
I doubt west will stop any time soon.
Ukrainian army and command have also been surprisingly resiliant and fully prepared to go from army traditional to guerilla tactics. It may morph into a guerilla war but I can’t see it ending without very huge force and expense incurred by Russia to limit damai.
Even then there will be constant attacks from that border.
“It may morph into a guerilla war” – No, it won’t. Oh, they’ll try, sure. But no guerilla war can succeed without the support of the population. The local population, however, is now fleeing from the Ukrainian-controlled to the Russian-controlled territories in droves, and this movement is likely to increase in upcoming months.
And if the border countries like Poland decided to attack, they might get more than they bargained for. Then it’d be up to the West to decide whether they want a full-scale WWIII or they’d rather go home.
Eugene Gur, Excellent response. Ash keeps arguing for a successful guerrilla war even though he never explains what the Ukrainian guerrillas will fight and dye for? Their corrupt oligarchs? This is absolutely no evidence at this point, and Russia has successfully negated that option in Chechnya and Syria (and China in Xinjiang)…
Projection of the Western way of war?
Excellent article.
To defeat a bully means, total violence and total humiliation. Only then does the bully face reality and never contemplates a rematch.
They then leave, move on to another town another country another continent. The old habits may linger but the beating and humiliation never leaves their memory.
It’s call adjusting their behaviour. Two generations latter the same shit happens. Ditto Germany, Poland and the three midgets from the Baltics – ( supplied the death squads killing mothers clutching a child to their naked bodies, standing next to a open pit filled with dead and dying women and children.)
Google photos.
Vote #1 for the most influential Jew of the year 2022: refer the Jerusalem Post no less.
2000 Palestinian kids shot dead but the holocaust is some how still sacred.
There is a reason no advance extraterrestrial civilisation has ever communicated with this disgusting little planet.
Most people in here see the bigger picture, the agenda. 27 million Russians died during WW2. But in Germany they teach kids in school only about 6 million dead Jews and that you are not allowed to deny this “fact” publicly or you will face jail time.
We see the general agenda here. But 99% of the world population is not aware of anything. They have their own problems they have to worry about. This “system” has worked for centuries. Let’s see if Russia and China and their supporters can change that. Because we, the people, won’t never ever be able to do that.
Being a Slav myself, I am infuriated that tens of millions Slavic lives lost don’t matter at all. It’s like modern western civilization is based on nazism with anti semitic part removed.
Wait for next pandemic. Coming soon.
It will be brutal, unleashed primarily in Africa and parts of Asia. It will be a bio weapon.
Thanks this is the best signal to noise ratio post i’ve seen for a very long time.
Even if negotiation does replace kinetic action, Russia would need to insist on a demilitarized zone extending well into the new reduced Ukraine. Otherwise the Nazis will just keep lobbing shells into Russian territory.
Ah yes, a DMZ, that will do it. I have a first-hand experience with a DMZ. It was decidedly smaller than 1000 kilometers in width, however, both adjoining territories on either side featured more casualties than did other areas, both north, and south. So DMZs aren’t …. demilitarized that is. A DMZ is a feature, not a bug. It attracts gun totin’ folk like stench on offal.
Self-Determination votes last week included part of Nikolayev Oblast
Two Districts in Nikolayev Oblast are included in new [old] Russia lands, in addition to Zaporozhye, Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts.
“In the DPR and LPR we have constitutions, there the borders are clearly defined, there are no questions there. As for Zaporozhye, these are the administrative borders of the Zaporozhye Region. As for Kherson, we know that the highest official of the Kherson Region determined two districts [in the Nikolayev Region] that are also included in the Kherson Region,” Russian Federation State Duma Committee on State Building and Legislation Pavel chairman Krasheninnikov said Monday.
https://tass.com/politics/1516985
-30-
My guess is that Russia’s Dec 2021 ultimatums are on the table.
Stopping the Nordstreams so dramatically signals acknowledgement that the US’ Oligarchy understands that their Global Hegemony agenda has come a cropper, and that their immediate task now is to ensure the best possible place for themselves at the future Table of Great Powers. The “different conversation” is indeed different.
By asset stripping Europa, the US has all but guaranteed the collapse of the EU, reducing the number of chairs to 3 while greatly enhancing their own position. Trump’s MAGA is happening, by hook or by crook. Actually, by both. The great European industrial concerns are already shopping for locations in the US, and US States are already rolling out red carpets of incentives for them.
Somebody said that the last task of an Imperial elite is to loot the Empire. He was right, but it didn’t have to be this way. The US could’ve acknowledged its position a decade ago and saved itself cooperatively. In so doing, it wouldn’t have had to shatter Europe to do it. The US chose otherwise, so here we are.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article189246.html
What happens to Europe now? I can’t see how it avoids splintering. Some of it, I expect will turn into something akin to the S. Pacific’s Cargo Cults and wait in vain for a return of the Empire and its goodies. Some of it will come to its senses, hang its Greenies & Transhumanists from lampposts and look East for salvation. There’ll be a lot of political turmoil in the meantime, and who chooses what in the end will doubtless be surprising.
Everything that Joe Biden does turned to shit! He is a puppet and his puppet master is Barack Obama running America on a secret third term president. There is no way a corrupt, senile old man like Biden could run a show like that. Biden has a handler and he is Obama.
in WW1, WW2, and WW3 Great Britain is the nation that instigated the war from behind the scene using British intelligence MI5 and MI6, and the Royal family is behind it all. In WW 1 America has to come and rescued the British, and in WW2 America has to come and rescued the British, and now in WW3 against Russia, King Charles want America to be involved too. America needs to be a non-interventionist and let the British, the French and Germany fight the Russian themselves. These 3 nations were all involved in WW1, WW2 and WW3. Let the European fight their own war.
Britain is a constitutional monarchy. The queen and king Charles have no influence over what gov decides they can only try to privately persuade or they will be kicked out.
US presidents, London, MI6 have substantial influence.
democrats have always been meddling scumbags it’s not Obama as ring leader it just them period. They started or got us into every major war. Their “religion” to spread post-modernism and rule the word while conservatives traditionary think problems at home take precedence and are more insular, we have a local church and dont need to make up a religion. Of course you have neo-cons now who are just democrats who like low taxes, but traditionally (America first committee days) we had to duped to fight with a false flag or things like democrats provoking Japan to attack pearl harbor. Dems like to mettle, in everything, your family, schools, finances, you vehicle choice, etc and everyone elses world over. Basically OG Karens. This is what conservative Putin’s whole speech was about. Stop meddling.
Susan Rice , Blinken, Pelosi, Schumer and Nuland calling shots.
Obama always thought Biden would Fck up. They are not that close.
The WHO kicked US company connected to covid gain of function research out of west Africa for stealing the strongest strains of ebola in violation of law.
EU and US sanctioned east Africa pipeline and want Ugandan and Sudanese oil and gold.
All of a sudden there is ebola in Uganda. And some see it as a bio attack by the US / West.
If it is may those doing it be cursed in eternity and suffer till they scream.
Someone wrote above that destruction and theft will make America great again. What a perverted idea of greatness, only a mentally sick person can equate death and suffering with greatness.
Make America a Slave Owner and Killer Again is more accurate. Enjoy that status.
Well here you have it from “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, 3 October 2022, 18:05, as regards who blew up the NS pipelines:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/faeb276d50aa024b55a71f32cbd3012a3f5f8d582729ad26e9c447bc91ea6cb7.jpg
“The explosive material was already installed when the pipeline was being constructed.”
Former head of the Ukraine gas concern “Naftogaz” Andriy Kobolyev about the mysterious Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline blasts
Interview by Cathrin Kahlweit and Bernhard Odehnal
Ah. The new gold standard of information “according to Ukrainian sources”
Negotiated settlement with whom?Putin and Lavrov have already dismissed the West as “agreement incapable”. What would change their mind? The only way a peace agreement can happen involving Ukraine is if there is a general perception in Ukraine that their Government is incapable of helping its population survive the coming winter. Then some army officer shoots Zelensky and his immediate colleagues like they did in Romania to its communist dictator accusing them of treason and selling their country to NATO as cannon fodder in an unnecessary war. This “counter coup” government sues for a ceasefire until they hold a referendum in what remains of Ukraine on whether the country is willing to have peace with Russia on Russian terms. This would then be a legitimate peace. For this to happen, Russia needs to destroy the electricity distribution network of major population centers at the approach to winter, probably in late November or early December. With Europe having a dreadful rather than merry Christmas, there would be no words of protest emerging from chattering teeth of a miserable population more concerned with how to survive the night than how to help Ukraine. It is necessary for Ukrainians and Europeans to not only sue for peace but also to know in starkly practical terms why they are suing.
My thinking, too. Pressure from industry and voters increasing and was on the verge of influencing politicians.
Why is everyone talking of fixing EU gas? It’s in Russians interest EU dies politically from these US hirelings currently in charge. No energy will cause revolutions. Russia wound have cut their shit off anyways this winter to put screws to EU, and was headed that way with many “technical issues” muzzling delivery before US or Poland stepped in to take Germans democracy away. No gas, thanks to explosion, which 95% of polling blames US for is even better. For Russia and USA/poland.
In so far as SMO- I’ve always been a “go big or go home” type. Like when Bush went in Iraq with 1/4 of the troops General Zinni said he needed to control Iraq (700,000) I knew it would fail. When Putin massed a mere 125K at the border I thought same thing. Another half ass invasion gonna go no where until Russia is exhausted, like we were, and had to leave. However, sometimes I can get into the whole Putin’s a 5D chessmaster camp the way everything geo-poltically and economically is backfiring on the west for starting this war in 2014. Maybe Putin wants it to take forever to defeat his primary foe, NATO and NWO. NATO got out proxied? Remains to be seen. Just frustrating for everyone seeing the pawns (soldiers and Donbass civilians) blown in half every day. Hope y’all can understand doomers in that light.
The western governments can not survive anything but a total victory. And the same is true for Putin and Russia and China. Russia giving up territory would mean the end of Putin. The Ukraine accepting autonomy for the territory also means that the war was lost.
So, correct, there is no way out, but just one for closer to hell for all of us.
Will it go on like this? For the next month, yes. Russia has no advantage of a quick win. The more Europe suffers, the better for Russia. And Europe, if you ask me. So, it is slow motion for us, always close to nuking.
Just try to survive to see the proceedings. You won’t see the end. There is no end. At least not in the next months.
Remember the fall of the Berlin wall? It was not only one night.
My premonition is one of escalation beyond Western proxy; specifically, impending Nato air attacks and long range missile attacks from countries outside Ukraine directed by the US in Germany, because I doubt this war will end with Ukraine’s defeat on the ground.
all good points. just a few extra takes from the peanut gallery:
the west: i’m in canadia but i can say i noticed a few months back the ukraine coverage just isn’t landing. i’m in an oil producing area (though it’s bitumen which is garbage) so high oil prices aren’t super terrifying. as for other provinces and the states, it’s supposed to be a very cold dry winter, so…
agreed that protests are coming and they will get UGLY. the recent 70,000+ in prague was a sign of things to come and the czechs (from my experience) are rather stoic and quiet most of the time. we’ll see what the already established and practiced groups do in the “main” EU countries. yellow vests 2.0, anyone?
western arms: have been running out and i’ve always though it was a giant “yard sale” where those countries have just been cleaning old crap out of their attics. maybe they all ready that “decluttering” book by the japanese chick?
it also makes me think: if the arms ran out so fast in one country facing a 1:3 troop ratio in their favor how long would they have lasted in a full blown NATO assault? a week? at least they have all their leaky naval ships full of suicidal sailors…
international: i keep thinking of the recent “k-drama” with south korea. they’ve always been one of the bootlickingest US vassals and now they snub pelosi and sound like a “deadwood” episode on open mics when snubbed by biden. also, forex is something to watch as the pound is oddly anemic and the dollar is insanely inflated. as for the 90%, maybe they realize that backing russia also means backing china since the two are increasingly chummy in certain arenas. funny how diplomacy works better than bombs and white phosphorus.
russia: i’ve mentioned winter in many comments but in russia’s favor. it may not be 1941 but the ukies are reduced to driving trucks and cars and their supplies leave a lot to be desired. deciding who gets to use the 2 ak-47s among the 50 “soldiers” while fighting off frostbite won’t do much for morale.
Diving at the depth and temperature has many challenges. Visibility is always limited at that depth, saturation mixed gas is required.
It seems the systems are mainly robotic nit sure about the hyperbaric welding module.
Here is their channel, they have a ton of very interesting videos.
https://www.youtube.com/user/NordStreamAG
Such an excellent article. I have reposted it on my substack site with commentary. https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/premonitions-helmhotz-smith-with I think a point here is that the Russians would be wise to get the war over with and take Nikolaev and Odessa as well as Kharkov, Krivoy Rog and so on — all areas with resources to leave a now depopulated rump state (about 10 million refugees in the West who will never return) with nothing for the West to exploit. By early next year, Q1 or Q2 we may see a global recession — the collapse of the Neoliberal empire. The Russians have been predicting and preparing for this for a long time. So best to get the war over by the end of winter.
Larry
Why would Moscow trust the west again?
Moscow said, NS1 and NS2 are repairable and offered to fix it.
Well, Moscow did not give up the West yet.
You fuckin Trumpist moron can’t seriously believe this nonsense what you writing here, aren’t you? Or are paid by the Kremlin?
Russia would be foolish to agree to any cease-fire without achieving ALL of its strategic aims. I would think at a bare minimum they must take Odessa and Kharkov, and everything east of the Dnieper. Otherwise, NATO and Ukraine neo-nazis will be back in a few years.
Great prophecy session, Mr. Smith! Keep up the good work!