Images of what appears to be the Daily written brief for the “Russia/Ukraine Joint Staff J3/J4/J5” popped up on the Donbass Devushka yesterday and has not created much of a stir. Donbass Devushka has four of the documents on line. They appear authentic. One is classified as “SECRET/REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO” and is date 28 FEB 23. (You can see the documents for your self at this link.)
The phrase, “REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO” means that this document is available to Finland, Ukraine, the Five Eyes Nations (i.e., Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the members of NATO.
The Biden Administration is not happy. Mediate, repeating a NY Times article, reports:
According to Biden administration officials, classified war documents have been leaked on social media that present U.S. and NATO’s secret plan to assist Ukraine’s military before it an offensive against Russian troops, per a report in The New York Times.
The plan contains photographed charts that outline troop and battalion strengths and anticipated weapon deliveries. It also shows the expenditures of HIMARS, a long-range artillery rocket system, and how quickly the Ukrainian military is using its munitions that previously were not shared by the Pentagon.
Other documents have columns that list Ukrainian troops’schedules from January to April. It also includes a summarized assembly of 12 combat brigades, nine of which are trained by U.S. and NATO allies. The documents note that the speed of delivering the equipment would affect brigades’ readiness and training as three are expected to be engaged by April 30.
The document I saw at Donbas is repelete with DOD acronyms. One of the most interesting is BLUF, which means Bottom Line Up Front. What is that bottom line from 28 February 2023?
Based on known contributions, training pathways, and projections (12) combat credible BDEs can be generated for the Spring Counteroffensive, (3) internally by Ukraine [not depicted], and (9) are trained and equipped by US, Allied & Partner (US/A&P). Of the (9) BDEs, (6) will be ready by 31MAR, and the final (3) BDEs by 30APR. Equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness in order to meet this timeline. Total equipment required for (9) BDES is 253 x Tanks, 381 x Mech, 480 x Motor, and 147 x Artillery plus delivery of 571 x U.S. Up-Armored HMMWVs.
If this is true, then we know that on February 28 the U.S./NATO military planners saw 30 April as the earliest date when the Ukrainian force, with U.S. and NATO supplied equipment, would be ready to launch the Spring Counter Offensive with 12 Brigades (aka BDE). U.S. Brigades have a troop strength between 2,000 and 5,000 men. That means the planned Ukrainian offensive troop strength could be between 24,000 and 60,000 men.
What is not discussed in the briefing are the logistics requirements required to support such an offensive. As Ukrainian forces move forward they are likely to be heavily engaged by Russian forces on the land and in the air. They will need to be resupplied in the midst of combat with ammunition and fuel. They will also need a system in place to get the wounded off the battlefield(s?) and back to field hospitals. These are tasks that have been very difficult for Ukraine to accomplish in combat operations as of today.
Also important to recognize that a lot of water has gone under the bridge since this briefing. Ukrainian forces trying to hang on to Bakhmut and other areas along the Donbass front have been savaged with casualties and the Russians have launched missile and air strikes on Ukrainian supply warehouses and troop assembly areas. Russia is moving forward steadily and Ukraine is trying to withdraw its remaining forces from the Bakhmut meat grinder. This is just another way of saying that the 28 February timeline may have been disrupted.
I think it is highly likely that Russia’s intelligence service has assets within the NATO ranks that are providing more recent information of this kind to the Russian military commanders and that they have a pretty good idea of the force they will face and where it will attack. If they do not then Western claims that the Russian military is inept will be verified.
This document, if true, removes any doubt that the United States and its NATO partners are involved heavily in helping Ukraine plan its upcoming offensive. What puzzles me is why the U.S., NATO and Ukraine are talking so openly about the upcoming Counter Offensive. Normally, professional military planners keep their plans SECRET and use deception to mask their true intentions. Well, these documents are classified SECRET, which is what you would expect. What does not make sense is that so many Western leaders are flapping their gums about the “SECRET” counter offensive.
One of the documents (not on the Donbass Devushka site), according to the NY TImes, gave casualty figures as of 1 March 2023 of 17,000 Russian KIA and 70,000 Ukrainian KIA. But military analysts talking to the Times claim, “that some original documents which document Ukrainian and Russian casualties have been modified behind a Moscow disinformation effort.”
So, if this is nothing but Russian disinformation why is the Biden Administration pressing the social media giants to censor it? I think the answer is self-evident — the documents are legit and NATO is leaking like a sieve and the Biden folks are in a panic.
Let me conclude with a question that should inspire discussion — if a source freely leaked this to Evan Gershkovich or Julian Assange or Sy Hersh, would they be guilty of “espionage? You know my answer. What do you think? Do citizens have the right to know?
And yet it uses Amerikastani “units”, which are incomprehensible to anyone except the Brutish (who still use “miles”).
There were doubts about this? From whom? The blind, deaf, and brain dead?
If a source leaked anything to the CIA spy Gershkovich, not only would it never have seen the light of day, said source would have been found dead of suicide by two shots to the back of the head and the gun missing.
If the source had leaked this to Assange or Hersh, they’d be entitled to ask why said source couldn’t come up with anything more than any Telegram user could tell you anyway.
Bis, I find you entertaining. You need to unwind a bit. Just advice from a friend.
I like the way you pose questions, Larry. And also your acceptance of a wide range of answers in a friendly way. I would guess Bis probably wishes he could rework his post. This war is wearying, especially as it reveals how stupid and amoral our leaders are.
Our leaders are not stupid, things are going according to their plan.
I think the documents are legit.
However, I believe that Russia is way ahead in their timeline of Intel, and mobilization than these docs.
So, like Hillary Said: What difference does it make at this point?
It makes the different that China, Iran and the rest of BRICS now have proof that US and NATO both bombed the NS pipelines and are conducting aggressive war against Russia. That may change some Nations attitude from being Neutral to directly supporting Russia. In worst case we may now see third party forces supporting Russia on the Battlefield in Ukraine.
In the overall picture:
The US + NATO is ready to Launch a spring attack against Russia in Ukraine.
The US has now 2 Aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Taiwan and Japan ready to launch war with China. Yesterday a Japanese attack helicopter was downed on an island just east of Taiwan.
The Arab league (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan) is now united with Syria, while Israel is attacking Syria and Lebanon, and beating the Muslims in the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
Can we get any closer to WWIII, to save the Biden administration 4 more years in Office with America and every NATO Nation kept under martial law?
Notice how far off China’s shore are the ACCs. Xi was in Russia asking for anti ACC missiles. He will be getting them. That makes it difficult for US forces from amphibious landings.
One of the best things we can do for our country and humanity is to ban Neocons from any Government office. They hate Russia, adore Israel and as far as Americans go, we are cattle.
Turkey is not Arab.
When do the American People get to vote (using paper ballots)?
1. WWIII or
2. Hang every member of the War Mongers
> The US has now 2 Aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Taiwan and Japan
When do we not have this? Sounds like business as usual to me
And our SPRs are near empty & in response to Biden’s request that SA increase supply to bring price down, OPEC announced production cuts. Lol.
Luongo says Biden & VDL thought they’d get price down to $40-50/barrel, & break Russia’s back that way. Instead Luongo expects oil to jump to $80-100+/barrel, with inflation to hit 2nd half of this year.
2 aircraft carriers near Taiwan are 2 fay, juicy hypersonic targets.
WW3 is already on, & we’ve already lost. It’s all over except the death & destruction.
Is it possible this is all staged? I mean perhaps the disinformation is being planted to get someone to believe something that isn’t true. Is Poland going to Invade Perhaps? I have no idea. I literally trust no one at this point.
Not only possible, but certain. The “someone” is the average citizen. 99% of this stuff is merely to keep the culpable from being held accountable. So “they” want “you” to think “the secret plans” were leaked. And now that’s why the Ukrainians can’t launch their offensive in the spring. Laughable and transparent.
https://myslpolska.info/2023/04/04/rekas-uchodzcy-czy-przesiedlency/
That makes the most sense. The US/NATO is backed into a corner on every front and may try to engineer some last-ditch hail Mary, whether a false flag attack, or something else. They must be up to something as they’re still building bio weapons labs in Ukraine (Sputnik News).
Meanwhile, on the broader front, Russia has taken control of oil prices, and the Davos crowd seems to be taking it in the shorts, acording to Luongo:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-davos-runs-opec-buzzsaw
As he points out, war in the future will be fought with higher interest rates and oil prices. Powell is getting some tacit support in all this to keep interest rates up, which will hurt the Davos plans. In this scenario, we can expect Brandon, a Davos crony, to try something desperate. They’re running out of options, and will be left with the US/West as a rump to the world economy. I guess they must think they’ll at least be masters of that disaster. I think it was Escobar or Pozsar that pointed that one out.
Mettry Michael Lee says: Turkey is not Arab.
My comment:
Both the Arabs and the Turks are Muslims, and so are the Iranians. The Iranians are Shia Muslims; whereas the Arabs and Turks are mostly Sunni Muslims (Those 2 sects have often been fighting each other). But now Biden´s Dollar and sanction policy has united them.
Randolorian says: When do we not have 2 Aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Taiwan and Japan?
Sounds like business as usual to me.
My comment:
Well, a month ago the US only had 1 aircraft carrier located in port in Japan.
Now a second carrier has arrived off the coast of Taiwan.
So something made Xi meet Putin, and North Korea to test long range missiles over the sea of Japan.
Check out this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQw7ZXiZJTU from the 21.00 mark.
Brian F says: Is Poland going to Invade Ukraine?
My comment:
YES, Poland has been invited by Zelensky to place troops inside Ukraine.
Poland is known as the Hyena of Europe, lurking around wounded pray, and attacking when the pray is down. So when the Ukrainian Army is going to be destroyed during the spring attack on Russia, Poland will move in to bite off a large chunk of western Ukraine.
I am not sure what you try to say in regards Turks, Arabs, Iranians? Totally absurd! It is like, Britts are Protestant Christian’s, and French are Christian Catholics, always fought each other, lets us add Germans too who either Lutherans or Catholic . And….. sounds like you are just b…..
Indeed Brian – when it is all looking so ridiculously transparent and so mismanaged by such incompetent idiots one has to question everything. Can this be possible?
It seems impossible than any nation(s) or organizations could be so stupid. Let’s hope it is exactly as it seems at face value because then there may be a reasonable outcome once these Anglo-American-EU nations have finally been dealt with and put in their proper places as they surely will be given such gross idiocy attending their every decision.
BUT I will not be surprised to see something very different suddenly appear out of left field. I mean something on a scale of super-advanced space fleets appearing over Washington and London and other capital cities (massive holograms indistinguishable from reality) with sudden capture of all news channels broadcasting Klingons telling the world that “any attempt at resistance is futile – you must go home and repeat Covid lock-downs and obey our every instruction if you want to survive – prison diet bug meals will be delivered to your door every day. You will own nothing, do nothing and be happy”. Of course that will be accompanied by a few real-life laser bursts frying/disintegrating large inner city apartment blocks on 9-11 scale for full impact effect to guarantee terrified compliance.
Surely such idiot incompetence cannot possibly have happened by accident as being the result of natural course of events? There must be some seriously powerful sinister force that is in total control of the Anglo-American-EU clown show – and if so one can only conclude that the deadly parasite force is intent on destroying the host it has inserted itself into many years ago, as it now no longer has any use for it and is in process of annihilating it. End-By-Date has arrived for the Empire of Faux Freedom and Despot Democracy and the dark power has another agenda at play which, if such wild speculation proves in coming months/years to have any substance, is going to shock us all so profoundly that people en masse will not only be stripped of all freedom and prosperity but most people will as a result inevitably lose their minds in the process (I mean those in the minority who have not already lost their minds).
None of what is unfolding now can have happened by chance without some design none of us has yet been able to decode. Stay tuned – the next episode is going a breath-taking cliff-hanger.
As the old saying goes, “Truth is stranger than fiction” – much stranger. Or more accurately described in Lord Byron’s Don Juan (1823): ‘Tis strange — but true; for truth is always strange; Stranger than fiction; if it could be told, How much would novels gain by the exchange!
“There must be some seriously powerful sinister force that is in total control of the Anglo-American-EU clown show”
That’s what they’d like you to think – but the truth is that a bunch of greedy, reasonably shrewd but shortsighted hyenas are in ‘control’. Being shrewd is negated by the overwhelming short-sightedness of their outlook. They are going down to ruin, just like the Athenian, Roman, British and all the other greedy and short=sighted empires before them, and finally, as a ‘clown-show’ they are by definition run by clowns.
Makes you wonder.
Something I go back to often is this…but I come from what I think is a Biblical perspective…so keep that in mind.
Some days it all looks contrived…and other days it looks like real battle lines have been drawn. Either way…common folk are never more than fodder regardless of the reality.
Satan has no love for anyone on earth…so it makes no difference to him who wins or loses so long as he believes he wins.
Satan…(like the cabal he controls)…will play both sides of the battle. He is the father of lies after all.
If this is all a big act…that all sides are actually working together behind the scenes…that scenario leaves gaping holes.
If they are…and the end game is just about getting rid of us…there are much easier means to that end in my opinion.
I have no doubt that Satan controls every country….Russia, China, USA…etc. He has a plan…world dominance.
How he accomplishes that is unknown in detail, but it appears to be moving in that direction.
This is like a large onion….layer after layer of deceipt and intrigue.
To me there appears to only be one relatively sane leader right now…and it is not a western leader. But then….how can anyone know as real details are always scant and obscure?
My personal biggest disappointment is the so- called church.
This group has largely aligned itself with the television narrative…whether it be the covid/ jab scandal…or the Russia conflict.
80% of church folk I know…know nothing but the television narrative…and while I absolutelydo not call myself evangelical….or anything else…that is the group Iam most associated with.
I think I just said nothing…which is where I started. Back to the drawing board.
This is a spiritual battle with a proxy war being played out on the earth with human souls as cannon fodder.
Chose your side carefully. To my knowledge…you only get one kick at the can.
This reminds me of the Space Trilogy by CS Lewis, which describes a literal, physical battle for the fate of humanity. CS Lewis was a prominent Anglican.
In the Korean community, the Russian Air Force is criticizing that it can’t attack the banker because it can’t make the common JSMD. During the Spring Offensive, if the Ukrainian army sprinkles the JSDM supported by the US, it will easily pierce the resistance line created by Russia and go to speed battle. How far is the story of JSDM true?
Larry,
A while back, didn’t that EU president (Ursula or some such name) admit to 100,000+ Ukrainian KIA? I remember the controversy because it had a sloppy edit.
Does this “new” data jive with what she accidentally released?
70,000 dead Ukrainian forced is sad but I thought it was over 100,000.
Looking at the documents, they “appear” authentic. They also compare the RF disposition of forces with the UAF’s and suggest, if I am not mistaken, two vectors for offensives. One in the east, one in the west towards Crimea. These offensives have already been anticipated by the Russians who have used “active defense fortification” strategies to prevent sudden large scale attacks from overwhelming their BTGs. The Russians are employing minimal forces along the contact line. With a force of 100,00 ~ 150,000 in reserve and now more air power at their disposal thanks to degradation of the UAF AD system, new tactics, and EC systems. If the Russians can entice the UAF to attack, they might retreat for position; then slaughter the UAF/ NATO armor, at which point, the UAF would have little left. A simultaneous attack from the North would finish off Western Ukraine. However, the big question is really whether the Russians want to finish the SMO so soon. Better for them to let to drag on.
“If the Russians can entice the UAF to attack, they might retreat for position; then slaughter the UAF/ NATO armor, at which point, the UAF would have little left. ”
This is exactly what the Soviet trained and equipped Iraqis did to the (initially) US trained and equipped Iranians in almost every year’s Spring offensive in the Iran-Iraq War.
If the direction of attack is anticipated then using drones, satellites and other intel it would not be hard to see and confirm a build up of men and assets. Not easy to hide 20k to 60k troops, vehicles and supplies. I think the ‘withdrawing’ from position and sucking the attackers in is more than likely as you comment.
Kolejny idiotyzm mający usprawiedliwić klęskę RUS. Jak UKR wejdą to się nie wycofaja
Please add an English translation to your comment as well, if possible. Its difficult to get an accurate translation. Please carry on.
He says that he can’t wait for Russians to enter Warsaw yet again.
“…if a source freely leaked this to Evan Gershkovich or Julian Assange or Sy Hersh, would they be guilty of “espionage? .”
Yep, Larry’s question is a bit of a conundrum. My answer is yes, it would formally be considered espionage but I think Larry’s been trying to make the point (if I may speculate) that espionage is a two-sided coin and may just as often prevent clashes as provoke them. Put another way, transparency in all matters overall is a playing-field leveler and promotes peace as much as, pos. even far more than it promotes war.
I would say, espionage (i.e. transparency) may be a net positive in times of peace but a far trickier issue during war.
Back to square one though. If they were just given the info and released it, would they themselves be guilty of espionage? Wasn’t that the issue with Assange, that the US claimed that he directly participated in the theft of documents by giving directions, advice etc. to Manning?
Maybe I missed the mark completely on this. Just some morning coffee thoughts to confuse my morning further.
….and that leads me to another foggy concept: ‘Hawks and Doves”. So what are they exactly?
I’d propose they be broken down into two categories each:
Hawks:
1) Extreme definition: Those who in all cases, choose war over peace (Bolton as prime example)
2) Milder definition: Those who would simply hold their ground in taking a hard line, arguing that’s the best route to peace ‘on their terms’
Doves:
1) Extreme definition: Those that would never consider war over peace and not care if peace we’re ‘on their terms or not’.
2) Milder definition: Those that would be inclined to consider the positions of both sides in the conflict and try to arrive at a suitable compromise, prior to a full war condition.
The terms Doves and Hawks I believe arose during the Vietnam war and as I remember, all four categories were in full swing.
From the NY Times article:
“Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.”
Yep, those numbers “appear to have been modified” because – well, maybe everything else is real, but these numbers are not what we have been telling the public so please do not believe them.
Right. I can accept that. I suspect the US is checking all rent-a-yacht companies to see if any customers left behind a laptop showing Photoshop as the most recent application used.
Good point, they lie about everything, so inserting a piece of truth in the mix as a lie, might be the truth.
NYT is a strange bird. Supposedly, it has a more sophisticated readership than most. So, wouldn’t a ‘sophisticated reader’ assume if it was modified, then by whom and it’d be just as likely to have understated Ukrainian casualties and overstated Russian ones.
Or, why even need to be ‘modified’? Why wouldn’t the original DOD report indulge in number massaging itself?
Transparent nonsense passing for journalism, once again.
NYTimes is for a long time a perjured witness. Ditto for much of the mainstream media. What they write is simply not worth trying to figure out. It takes a little more effort to find sources globally that are trustworthy – even if sometimes mistaken – and that time is well worth it.
Transparent propaganda and misinformation passing for journalism, once again. ;^>
NYT has a sophisticated readership?
Like CNN and NPR have sophisticated audiences as well?
I could go with naive and confused to start with…then move to more colorful adjectives immediately afterwards.
👍
Gilbert Doctorow today:
“At the conclusion of my time on air [an interview with Press TV, Iran], I brought up another major event of the past month which also was blacked out by our broadcasters, namely the destruction of an underground bunker near the Western Ukraine city of Liviv by a Russian hypersonic missile Kinzhal, which cost the lives of more than 200 NATO generals and other high military officers, including about 20 Americans. That event, which first was announced very discreetly on Russian news tickers immediately following its execution, was again quietly and briefly mentioned on the Yandex ticker yesterday with respect to the “shipment in crates” of the recovered remains of those officers killed to their home countries in the West.”
Really?
I have been unable to confirm that happened as reported.
Have you seen any obituary reports or funeral dates of serving high ranking US officers in recent weeks who could have been serving in Ukraine ?
I’d guess those would be ‘classified’ .
Usually I look for random “Training accidents” such as the 2 helos that went down, and that one that crashed south of japan,
no one is going to confirm anything, its alot of leg work to watch us obituaries, Us soldiers also have a high suicide rate which doesn’t help.
We’ve all seen scattered reports of this event over the past few weeks. If true, wouldn’t the lack of fanfare indicate a desire by both sides to limit escalation?
Speaking of scattered reports: We still have no idea if NATO personnel were actually captured or died in the Azovstal catacombs.
Don’t expect revelational miracles. All I can add.
200 Generals in a theater of operations is a lot of Generals. Wouldn’t some just be Colonels?
Yup. Very high number of generals.
It says “Generals AND other high military officers” …
10 Generals and their entourage would easily get you to 200. Probably 5 would do it if the 200 include staff, aides, comms, lacky’s and minions
Gilbert is reading lot of Russian tabloid. I also find it interesting. They will be the first to report such thing, I might suggest it’s a trial balloon. Later if that news grows legs it is reported on Russian mainstream media.
Larry, all good and al, always, appreciated!
El Bigg-O Problemo? El Stupid-O Americano Electorate.
Ted Cruz? Gimmie A BREAK!
Texans, please do some day wake up. Money to the Ukraine when Americans are pinched (and worse)?
Thanks!
A more liberal reading would be to refer to that Rules Based International Order paradigm which exists nowhere in particular, means nothing in particular beyond what The Exceptional Nation says it means, in their favour and any direct attack on Washington’s military assets would be contrary to The Civilized Order. Their order. Their wars on Afghanistan, The Yemen, Syria, Vietnam and surrounding countries, China a few centuries back, are written off as mistakes. Mistakes they were. The move on Russia also a mistake, a mistake of a different order. Russia can strike back and it can strike back very hard. Strictly, they have not started much yet and their War Machine is superior.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-war-ix-one-great-game
The date of their famous ”offensive” (if any, if ever?), has been chosen by a Com P R agency from Madison avenue for the confortable amount of money of 10 millions usd.
Date is: ”the 9th of May”, coincidence with Victory parade in Russia (of WWII).
The narrative will be as of 15th of April: ‘victory parade will become ..defeat parade’ this year’ and all possible variations + multiple marketing tools and major Nafo MSM propaganda campaign in ‘teasing mode’.
Though in 2023, this is not Zelensky, not any Ukr General, not even the Pentagone, not Sullivan, Nuland, Blinken, Stoltenberg, Macron, VDleyen or even J Biden who decides the date of an offensive of the last chance, this is a twitter offensive turning into a video game….if confirmed we live in a crazy World.
It’s an odd war. It seems the Russians have little interest in pushing forward. They have set up a great meat grinder in the Donbas. They are happy to allow NATO equipment and proxy troops to walk into their grinder for months on end.
” It seems the Russians have little interest in pushing forward. ”
You should preface that with “For now”, Russia does have a great interest in pushing forward, but only when the time is right.
“pushing forward” into a minefield is most unwise. It’s likely to be a drawn out business.
@grr
I agree with you!
The grinder tactic is effective! NATO mercenaries and Azovites deserve to spend some time in the slow cooker!
On a different topic.. The Cable NEWHILL Network seems to be quiet today!!! LOL
CNN is on vacation! But we are waiting for him…
Opec+ has announced a production cut, which estimates a rise in Brent Crude to $100 per barrel. This might shed a light on another reason why the Russians are taking their time.
In addition, this is really good news, some might ask how come? Well, with Grandpa depleting the US strategic reserves and the US planning to fight China and things are heating up in Syria (the real Syrians are attacking US forces, I wonder why?), starting any kind of war will be expensive and should Congress force some form of limit on spending, alternatives to a war with China might appear imperative.
Good news for US producers, bad news for consumers, but better than another war with China. Ef the Neocons.
The Russian strategists are so far beyond the cornucopia of clowns in Grandpa’s administration. One thing is for sure, the City of London and the EU as a whole have been molested, they just don’t know it yet. The EU wants to be independent of big bad misogynistic Putin. Sounds like the EU is run by a bunch of dizzy feminists. Let them eat cake.
My only objection to your comment is I think he is closer to Great-Grandpa, than Grandpa. Many grandfathers are still alert , oriented, and can walk up a flight of stairs.
Heck, look at Sy Hersh. He’s got so much going on upstairs that he often won’t finish a sentence before moving on to the next thought.
But you know who really blows my mind (not age-related)? Robert Barnes. I stand transfixed digesting his non-stop rhetoric, coming at you at a thousand rounds a minute.
“. . . he [Sy Hersh] often won’t finish a sentence before moving on to the next thought.”
There’s a psychological condition for that: Schizophrenia.
Sy has been shouting into the wind for so long — against a relentless government that just keeps coming on and coming on; doubling down and doubling down — that he’s gone coocoo.
It’s been over six-months (26 September 2022), since Nord Stream One and Two were blown up. Eyes and memories are glossing over.
Robert Barnes is a great teacher. Great teachers who command complex subjects tend to “come at you at” with a thousand facts a minute. One must build an Outline and a Mind Map at the same time to understand the information. Good skill to develop.
Bob, you must be very young.
Journalists who publish leaked documents are not guilty of espionage, assuming journalists are acting in the interest of truth and for the public good.
If the leaks are part of a disinformation campaign that is quite a different matter, as in the CIA’s Project Mockingbird.
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/china-news/20343-cia-s-operation-mockingbird-a-precursor-of-us-manipulation-of-world-public-opinion.html
That is why it is difficult to say if Gershkovich can be compared to Sy Hersh or Julian Assange, without actually knowing what Gershkovich was up to. The WSJ for which he works is certainly not part of the free press.
Good question, though.
“Journalists who publish leaked documents are not guilty of espionage, assuming journalists are acting in the interest of truth and for the public good.”
Yes. “Truth, justice, and the American Way.” Oops. Sorry. “Truth, justice and a better world.”
There. Fixed it.
Gershkovich cannot and will not, ever, be comparable to Assange or Hersh by sheer virtue of the fact that Russia is now practically at war with the United States: If any further proof was needed, the “leak” of this latest batch of NATO documents is more than enough confirmation.
Any actions by American journalists in Russia can – and should – therefore be considered spying.
How many American journalists were in Nazi Germany during World War II, especially after December 11, 1941?
Gershkovich Is almost certainly a Russian citizen.
According to Biden administration officials, classified war documents have been leaked on social media that present U.S. and NATO’s secret plan to assist Ukraine’s military before it an offensive against Russian troops, per a report in The New York Times.
I’m thinking this should say, … before it can launch an offensive.
Seems everyone is hiding behind security walls these days, it’s been over used to protect the inept and criminal from embarrassment or better yet jail. Bottom line the less we know the more brazen their criminal exploits become. Reading their psychological projections the situation is anything but rules based.
Experts live in little vacuum bottles. Where they believe their area of expertise controls all. Cause!
I believe in the big picture. Ukraine has not turned out how anyone thought. Russia thought the idiots would fold. The West thought Russia would roll over everything. The West then thought that superior West Point thinkers (everyone a political appointee of a rich donor) would handily defeat the Russian swine with their Ukrainian cannon fodder. And then debacle to debacle. As George would say. Yadda Yadda. And this nasty little Russia grinding everything up now and cutting into our profits! No, no, no.
Big picture. The most important thing in the world for the Globalists is to get Biden elected again. So, this shit has to get wound up. An offense will take place. If it kills every freaking Ukrainian they can shove to the line with snow plows? So be it. But this shit has to either be won or walked away from by around November.
That gives Joe a year to run for re-election from his basement bunker while the press handjobs his resume. Powell will get the word, and interest rates will be cut. The market will swoon that we are extending, pretending, and printing again. The BLS will print bullshit numbers about how jobs are everywhere, and Jesus himself has blessed the economy. Good times. Joe gets in. And on to serious things.
War with China. Starting with the sanction elevator and then good ole Japs, and Aussies, and Taiwanese dying for holy US foreign policy. The plan.
We can’t say for sure the US is still capable of printing dollars as it could do so previously. Iran and Saudi Arabia met in Beijing yesterday. If it’s true that Saudi’s decided to join the Eurasian multipolar world order, then it could mean the end of the American fiat currency adventure. It implies from now on all the Oil/Gas producing countries of EU/Asia, Middle East…Venezuela will be trading under the new Eurasian exports and security system, without US$. From now on, Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Riyadh, Carcass ….will be setting the prices for energy commodities. All the strategic check points, sea lanes, trade corridors … across Eurasia or even N. Africa/S. America will be monitored by the Eurasian powers. The Saudi’s aren’t worried about a Washington instigated regime change, color revolution, coup d’état ….because they know they will be given huge supports from China, Russia and Iran…and other Eurasian powers, once needed. Frankly, under these changing circumstances, if I was Biden, I would have written a letter to Putin asking forgiveness, immediately. By the way, in Ukraine, where about half of population is Russian, it would be impossible not to have very close intelligence gathering system at work inside the NATO/Ukronazi military. Lastly, when a so-called secret document is revealed to journalists, then it becomes public domain. Journalists can’t be blamed for making the information public.
The collective west will use the intelligence leak as an excuse for its sorti from the whole debacle in the muddy fields of Donbas/Lugansk. We know that the so hyped “ukrozionazi counteroffensive” is dead on arrival. So the second worst exit option for NATO is to blame it on intel leaks.
Bingo!
“Sorti” = Out. “[S]orti from the whole debacle . . . .”
Nope. Not this time. Putin has already said that the United States will not be able to escape / “fuir” across the ocean this time. The Ukraine / Russian “conflict” was one proxy war too far. Putin has said how the Ukraine / Russian “conflict” is not Afghanistan.
I, for one, believe Putin. No reason not to. He has done everything he said he would. He has meant every word he has said.
The United States has been called out. A formal declaration of war is only a detail at this point. And after the gaslighting Russia took from the Minsk II agreements, Russia is done talking with the United States.
Even if they exit Ukraine, they can’t escape. No place to hide. Russia now effectively controls the oil price with its new deal with the Saudis. This war has always been way more than Ukraine, and the economic part is the bigger part. The US is screwed now, as they can have the dollar and not the economy, or choose the economy (short term) and suffer runaway inflation. There’s no win here.
Russia and China have already won. It’s just a case of how bad the US/NATO wants to make it before they capitulate. The neocons think war is the answer to the economic crisis, as they always do, but you can’t fight a war with a collapsing currency, rising interest rates, no manufacturing capacity (that alone is enough for a loss – years to gear up, the war would be long over by then) and a narcissistic country focused on “woke.” The US can’t even get new trades people, nobody wants to get their hands dirty. Oh, but isn’t fighting a dirty business? You bet it is, and they have no appetite for it either.
So you don’t recognize any difference between timely and actionable military intelligence and documentation of previous war crimes? That distinction is essential…
I fully support freedom of the press, but that lack of distinction between forward-looking intelligence and backward-looking documentation misses the point. Both Assange and Hersh were documenting past military war crimes for the public; Gershkovich appears to have been attempting to access current military production information useful to a hostile adversary.
As far as tradecraft in the alphabet agencies, you often write about the degradation in quality on the analytical side of your old agency. Might it be possible that has occurred on the operational side as well?
Perhaps Obama’s ideological purge has something to do with it… The upper management of US military, intel and federal police agencies all seem to be reliably partisan Democrat — so much so that we’re fast becoming an obvious Banana Republic
And the “leaked/stolen” NATO documents referenced above? No opinion about authenticity, at least not yet, except that they fall into the timely and actionable military intelligence category.
“but that lack of distinction between forward-looking intelligence and backward-looking documentation misses the point. Both Assange and Hersh were documenting past military war crimes for the public; Gershkovich appears to have been attempting to access current military production information useful to a hostile adversary.”
Very good points. There is a glaring distinction between the two scenarios.
I’m all for ‘freedom of the press’ as long as that press is truly independent and actually conducting truthful journalism.
IMO they are not free to gaslight, repeat govt./pentagon/pharma lies as fact, or to hide behind a press ID when conducting something other than journalism.
The Scottish writer Walter Scott spoke to tangled webs and deceptions – and consequences that run out of your control.
Precisely the state of Washington’s Proxy War and so their last Great Game?
One Great Game too many.
Examined here . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-war-ix-one-great-game
________
And while it does run out of their control, the Mainstream Media will have us focus upon the psychological proclivities of Donald Trump, now a trigger word, along with others playing loose with the truth.
Those with present force and effect, the Democrats, being in control of The Government receive little attention. Their magical distractions . . .
It seems to me that all these leaks and constant public speculation from the Ukrainian side re their upcoming offensive are nothing more than deliberate misinformation from themselves which they somehow think will confuse and fool the Russians. If they think that then good luck to them but the Russians are usually several steps ahead of them so they’ll need a great deal more than smoke and mirrors to help them. The outcome is always the same as it’ll be when depleted uranium shells are used – more deleted Ukrainians.
“I think it is highly likely that Russia’s intelligence service has assets within the NATO ranks”
Larry I have posted this before, here maybe, definitely elsewhere; I remember years ago, maybe five, watching VVP give special mention to the unsung and unmentioned Russians dedicating their entire lives living in other countries under deep cover in many and varied positions (spies I suppose we could call them).
And didn’t VVP work in that dept. running them for a while?
I have always believed that Russia has the inside intel from many enemy nations. They seem to be two steps ahead in so many areas.
It is always better to know than not. Gives you an extra second.
Reporting is NOT espionage.
I hope Russia will ask for Assange in return for the erstwhile reporter of the Whippington Post.
Thanks Larry, sticks are being inserted in bicycle spokes all over.
The documents are perfectly timed to cause max pain in the ranks of OTAN.
The rest of the planet is watching a shit show that America is in charge of and they don’t need much more convincing that things are FUBAR.
The White House will probably attempt to convince television public this new doc dump is just Russian disinformation. And anyway we all have long covid and brain fever too.
I think this was released by a nato partner because they are going to get their buts kicked politically, militarily, financially if they don’t stop the madness. Hatred is bizarre to watch from the sidelines.
But every day there is the acts of insanity that just don’t end. Have to ask, Who benefits? Qui Bono
I’m too shocked that the “invasion plans” are being discussed loudly by Ukrainian officials (just like they announced the Kherson offensive in the summer, and later explained it was a ruse, and Kharkiv was the actual target. In WWII, the armies were secretive about their offensives to the point of planting a fake offensive map on a dead British officer to throw the enemy off the real one. The same goes for Normandy and the Soviets’ offensives. But now, Biden and Nuland announce bombing the Nord Streams upfront on TV, after the fact just gloat in self-admiration. It’s like the dings can’t help themselves, “look at me, look at me,” not even if the looks they’re getting are the looks of horror by anybody remotely normal.
The Kherson offensive was real, it was carried out in August last year and it ended in disaster for the Ukrainians because they had more than 10,000 dead soldiers. Up to that moment, the Ukrainians had managed to win absolutely nothing, the pressure was growing to show some success ahead of the important NATO summit in Rammstein because it became stupid and boring to recycle the withdrawal of the Russians from the vicinity of Kiev as a great victory for the Ukrainians. Then, with the help of NATO satellites, they saw that the Russians had weak forces in the sparsely populated and poor surroundings of Kharkiv, about 1,200 military reservists from the LNR on the front line almost 100 kilometers long.
At the beginning of September, the Ukrainians dragged up to 27,000 soldiers from Kharkiv and easily beat the Russians to the delight of the evil empire and the MSM, who have since been telling a wider narrative about the Russian defeat on the entire battlefield.
Billy, nobody doubts that soldiers died for real. But while Kherson had the sufficient RF forces to defend it, Kharkiv did not, which might be in parts due to the largely rumored attack on Kherson while hardly any info leaked on then simultaneously prepared attack on Kharkiv.
We don’t live in a black and white world.
The job of government to to best serve the interests of their citizens.
The job of journalists is to expose those who don’t.
Is it legitimate to harm one person to help another?
Every case is different.
I have followed the Julian Assange case very carefully and it seem clear that his actions were in the best interests of the population as a whole. Evan Gershkovich, who knows? I know next to nothing about him or his motives. It is not a one size fits all which is why critical thinking is paramount and blindly following your leader is not.
Mr Johnson has proved to be an unusual reliable and astute commentator. The Joy Reid’s of this world somewhat less shall we say.
Trying to tell people that “[t]he job of government to [sic] best serve the interests of their citizens,” and then back that up with “[t]he job of journalists is to expose those who don’t,” is like telling people how the police are there to protect and serve the people, while the military is there to serve and protect the government.”
Both are true statements, or were, or used to be. Before the government began to serve only the monied interests, and before police forces were militarized.
“The job of government to to best serve the interests of their citizens.” In theory somewhere I suppose. In the U.S., not so much.
What really kills me is how the United States isn’t even the dirtiest shirt in the basket. I can hardly imagine what the world will look like when this thing goes south.
“Should the people be kept informed?” — Democracy itself has not quite understood what it is yet — The IQ Bell Curve runs from IQ 70–160. It is reasonably established that any 30point difference puts each with a different base of comprehension, understanding, and each filters everything with a different filter.
It gets worse. The only information we have about anything is what the Media have told us. Their Filter is eyeballs and profit, and subjective from the writer.
It gets still worse. Most events good and bad are Politically created and then “sold” to the public. — Very seldom, if ever, does the man/woman/non-binary,/Trans-sexual in the street have the slightest idea of the realities and outcomes of what the Politicians have sold them.
Intellectually the obligatory information being given to the “people” is probably worse than “no information” because it is well established that only 6.4% of the US reach Complex Conceptual thinking. — Graham
Caitlin Johnstone writes:
“China is preparing to kill Americans and we’ve got to prepare to defend ourselves,” empire propagandist Gordon Chang told Fox Business during an interview on Monday.
Chang, who has famously spent more than two decades incorrectly predicting the imminent collapse of China, bizarrely made these comments while discussing a future attack on Taiwan. Taiwan is of course not the United States and any potential war between Taiwan and the mainland would be an inter-Chinese conflict that needn’t involve a single American, and Chang is most assuredly not part of any “we” who will ever be engaged in combat with the Chinese military under any circumstances.
Chang frames his narrative as though China is menacing Americans in their homes, when in reality only the exact opposite is true: the US has been militarily encircling China for many years, and is rapidly accelerating its efforts to do so.”
https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/the-west-has-been-planning-to-crush?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=82124&post_id=113179556&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
I have been living in a fool’s and madhouse for 3 years. At the latest since teachers in schools tell children that men can have children, I no longer have any doubts that the West is at the end of its era.
There is so much disinformation on all sides. I was also surprised that the West, not official Russia, palavered so openly about their activities.
I’m just waiting to see what happens next in real terms. For me, the essential questions are the following:
🔸Will the Empire end this world war and cooperate peacefully with other nations in the future? Never.
🔸Will Russia and China surrender and submit? Never.
🔸Does the US, especially in the context of de-dollarization in the world, have a chance to win this war? No.
🔸I am always skeptical of Paul Craig Roberts assessments and usually disagree. But I share his opinion that this war (economic, currency, geopolitical/diplomatic, military) will be decided by force. Whether it comes to nuclear apocalypse, that depends on what the US does. But at least the catastrophe will be that the West will fall into chaos. Poverty and misery of the population, the criminality explodes (in particular in countries with free firearm possession), multibillionaires conceive already today their own cities, governments which administer totalitarian this chaos, and so on.
Ukraine, including Polish interests, are already anecdotal to me.
This “leak” will provide an excuse to not launch any offensive – which would have been suicidal anyways. Anything that comes out of WaPo or NYT cannot be considered real investigative journalism. The Whitehouse would have given a green light for this “leak”.
This is the most well proclaimed offensive in history. It’s so secret kids talk about it at lunch.
So the Russians would have to be epically stupid to not know this, which is hwy they have been preparing and building fortifications for months. The Ukrainians and/or their NATO commanders would have to be suicidally stupid to carry through with it, so of course they will, their behavior pattern doesn’t change.
One thing is for certain, the Ukrainians will take heavy casualties, like every other day.
What happens after Ukraine has been depleted until it’s Army cannot fight effectively, and no more mercenaries can be paid to fight? Everyone agrees there will be no more artillery shells left in Ukraine by Summer. It seems we are entering the final stages of the initial conflict, what is left but escalation to? Does NATO enter, or a coalition of the Billing with Poland and a few others?
“What happens after Ukraine has been depleted until it’s Army cannot fight effectively, and no more mercenaries can be paid to fight?”
I suspect that the Americans will start to fight the russians to the last Pole. I wonder, if anyone noticed the uptick in the anti-russian propaganda in Poland and Slovakia recently.
I am afraid, not a victory is the goal of the empire, because this battle in Ukraine is not to be won. Unless, in fact, only complete idiots are still deciding in the West. My guess is that the use of DU munitions and/or the invasion of European NATO troops is to provoke the next stage of escalation. In particular, the use of DU munitions is something Russia cannot ignore. (Like, for example, the sinking of the cruiser “Moskva”) So Russia will not limit itself to protest notes before the corrupted UN. The empire wants to extend the war to NATO territory. That’s what I fear. A failed offensive will be taken as an occasion. “After all, it would be necessary to save Ukraine and prevent aggressive Russia from marching all the way to the Atlantic.” I can already see the headlines.
This ploy to directly involve NATO and declare that would be totally legitimate is so transparent. This would support my thesis that the empire knows that the battle is lost and therefore the direct engagement of the EU vassals against Russia must be carried out.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/zelenskys-latest-trip-to-poland-was?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=835783&post_id=113061728&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Why do NATO and US need “legitimacy”? When has that bothered them? What, then might get sanctioned or something? Maybe Biden(s) hauled off to the ICC? Please.
Seems to me that they would already be in Ukraine if they thought they might have a winning hand.
Pesumably there is some cause for pause, that fighting Russia, China and Iran all at the same time might not be so great, eg “not a winning hand”.
But concerns over legitimacy? Stop laughing!
they would be guilty of “treason” ,not ‘espionage’
I think elements within the US intelligence services and the Pentagon maybe getting very alarmed at the slippery slope of US involvement in Ukraine. This leak may be a strong hint of this alarm and discontent.
The intel people seems to be deeply fractured into 2 camps. The one that leaked nordstream to Sy Hersh plausibly did this to throw a spanner to stop the spinning wheel. This fracture is but one symptom of the ailment inflicting the American society from top to bottom, ripped apart from within by the forces advocating two opposing ends of the morality spectrum each is represented by those who support & those who oppose the Ukrainian human tragedy.
The Spring Counteroffensive was intentionally publicised to gather the last remaining bit of whatever is left of the dwindling supporters camp for the lost cause before the inevitable end.
The Spring Counteroffensive will begin right after the Fall of Bakhmut. Then the United States, witnessing the total annihilation of the Ukrainian military, will cross the Polish border and come to the aid of the “Ukrainian Martyrs.” “Remember Bakhmut!” will be the rallying cry.
The west has no choice. Putin has already said that the Ukraine / Russian “conflict” will follow the United States home. This ain’t no Afghanistan. No oceans are going to protect the United States this time.
At that point, over 1-million Russia land forces, currently being held in reserve, will go quiet, waiting for the western hordes of NATO barbarians to cross from Poland directly into the Ukraine, and make their way towards the Donbass Region. A second front, made up of reinforced elements of the 101ST Airborne, currently stationed in Romania, will move to take Odessa. A third front, including the landings of US troops in Sebastopol, will take Crimea.
This is just the main event.
At this point, a moment of truth will arrive for Germany. Will they follow their master’s instructions and strike Belarus via Poland? Will the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — with an assist from Poland, take Kaliningrad and invade Belarus?
In any event, we’re talking World War III.
And these actions do not even include civilian deaths. The world population is over 8-billion. “There has been an increase in civilian fatalities from 5% at the turn of the 19th century to 15% during World War I (WW I), 65% by the end of World War II (WW II).”
So, what are we talking about? 5-billion civilian deaths? The only way you get there is via nuclear war. You simply cannot kill 5-billion civilians with conventional warfare alone.
When Bahkmut falls (not if), and the Russians don’t immediately sweep across all of the Ukraine, the whole world will know it is in deep trouble.
Some very big assumptions you’re making there, Mr blame-e.
Germany invading Belarus- with what? Both of their combat brigades? Polish help? There’s more than enough Russian troops in Belarus to repel an attack, without counting the Belarussian army or Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons there.
The 101st moving on Odessa? Unopposed, it’s possible, against any Russian armoured units, not happening.
Really, American troops couldn’t get to Poland in strength for at least a year, as evidenced by our buildup for Iraq 2, and the Russians will not be sitting around waiting to be sucker punched.
I don’t necessarily think you are wrong on the nuclear escalation, but that is dependent on US leadership, and whether they will act with any responsibility. I am not convinced they will.
I can’t even fathom how you think US troops could ever get into the Black Sea, let alone successfully assaulting (reportedly) Russia’s most important naval asset at Sevestopol.
Can’t say whose thesis is the most predictive accurate.
For my part, I was just taking the intelligence “leak” and turning it on its head.
I probably should have bracketed my whole comment.
What got my attention were all the tanks and armored vehicles sitting in the Polish port Gdynia. I was like “Where did all that gear come from?” Another intelligence leak?
We’ve been seeing YouTube videos of trains loaded with hundreds (thousands?) of Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles traversing the country on huge trains. Where were they all going? Real or faked? Like Patton’s famous fake Army in England which fooled the Germans during World War II.
I don’t know.
What were we seeing? Somebody who is weak appearing strong, or the other way around?
Forgetting about military capabilities for a moment. Everything else I see, and everything I know, and everything I feel, says what’s going on, with everything and everywhere is unsustainable. Things go on until they can’t, and then they stop.
It’s not the momentum that kills you. It’s the sudden stop. And this one could end-up wiping out 65-percent of the world’s population. And those of us who survive won’t even notice.
Maybe only a piloted leak to have a face save excuse to avoid starting such an impossible offensive?
Could it be Operation Mincemeat 2.0?
> “So, if this is nothing but Russian disinformation why is the Biden Administration pressing the social media giants to censor it?”
.. to give it credibility?
Do citizens have a right to know?
Forgive me for interfering. But I have a counter question: no matter what different sources bring to the attention of citizens, where is the guarantee that citizens will not receive misinformation from either side or third party?
All lies. All leaks of classified information are like a psychic attack before a fight.
For example, the death toll figures are either overestimated or underestimated.
The figures on the number of weapons supplied are also unverifiable, since it is not known how many of them will end up at the front.
And, finally, nothing will change on the line of contact whether or not citizens know the contents of secret documents. There is an intelligence war going on and a lot depends on which General Staff of which of the warring parties turns out to be more cunning.
I suspect that this is a genuine document leaked that must now be treated by NATO as deceptive or mis-directional indication of their plans for a spring offensive.
Russell Texas Bentley anticipates and attack late April early May through the frontlines very close to Donetsk as per the original circa 1st March 2022 planned attack and planned occupation of cities in Donbass filled with a million human shields close to the frontline. The loss of the resupply chain through Bahkmut would not change this plan IF invaders can resupply themselves by seizing Russian ammo stores and artillery which is a logical resolution of the loss of stores & resupply routes around Bahkmut.
In war, the resources required for a major military offensive are enormous.
A major industrial power may (or may not) have sufficient stockpiles and industrial resources to be able to launch a major military offensive at any time of its choosing.
Middling and smaller powers reliant on external arms suppliers certainly do not.
In the 1980’s Iran-Iraq War, neither Iran nor Iraq, both middling powers, had the resources to launch more than one offensive per year. Each year, there would be an offensive in March or April. After one or two months of fighting, Iranians suckered into Iraqi kill boxes and tens of thousands dead, the ammunition would be expended and the offensive would peter out, the lines virtually unchanged. Then only small scale actions while stockpiles were imported and rebuilt to do the same next year.
Given the blindingly obvious and insurmountable time constraints imposed by the need to accumulate the necessary resources from external suppliers, and weather factors, the timing of a potential offensive can be predicted with reasonable accuracy (+/- a couple of weeks) far in advance. So the fact that politicians and others are talking about it and when it will happen is irrelevant, there is no secret about its timing.
The only real uncertainty is the direction of attack. This could be determined if the locations of forward supply points were known, and this is likely a focus of Russian intelligence efforts, and NATO/Ukr deception efforts.
“What puzzles me is why the U.S., NATO and Ukraine are talking so openly about the upcoming Counter Offensive” – Probably to keep morale up, which is a huge problem for Ukrainian troops once they reach frontlines
The story I could piece together is that some NAFO warrior on 4chan posted the original docs (the ones with 42k Russian casualties and 17k Ukrainian ones) in order to “prove” that the Russians are losing more. The poorly edited version with the numbers switched around appeared later and obviously they’re jeering at it as proof of inept Russian propaganda. So the leak is _probably_ real, but it’s not officially sanctioned. Some questions remain though.
1) Where are all these graveyards in Ukraine coming from? Why aren’t there any like these in Russia?
2) Why are Ukrainian hospitals, both military and civilian, completely overwhelmed, while Russian military hospitals aren’t even at capacity?
3) Did Milley, Austin and Kirby lie to us about 100k+ (or 200k, I honestly don’t keep up anymore) dead Russians? How could such reputable and trustworthy sources do this?
4) Did this idiot even consider that his leak exposes a far more interesting concern – that Ukraine is completely unable to build up ammo reserves for its counteroinkffensive and basically spends it as arrives? Or that these brigade compositions look crippled from get-go?
I don’t think we should change the law so that journalists can betray their country during the war. I am not assuming US or Russia in any place(journalist or government). It is all in abstract terms. It is ok if they reveal sensitive data about the enemy though. If companies are allowed to keep secrets why shouldn’t the army/government?
Companies are private owned by shareholders and regulated directors.
Army and gov are owned by pubic who they are accountable to as well as to international laws.
Without transparency to a good degree and full hindsight disclosure corruption would thrive
Creating public and global risk.
I am a resident of UK, ancestral home of so much of the destructive and egotistical thinking on display in the West. Whereas the Russian intervention in Ukraine civil war has set off a whole series of unintended consequences from the West’s point of view foremost strengthening and accelerating the formation of an alternative world organisation around Russia and China and revealing the unpreparedness of NATO countries to fight a war against a determined adversary, the one area in which the West retains some superiority is in the information and propaganda spcae in my opinion. I haven’t been abroad for quite a while but in the UK the extent to which the general population has strung out Ukrainian flags and vented blood lust against all things Russian has been astonishing and, to me, appalling.
At the same time everywhere there are signs of underinvestment in infrastructure with terrible pot holes in the roads, etc. about which people understandably complain. They don’t tend to see a disconnect between sending endless millions to fund a war which has caused the massive increase in energy costs and inflation.
In judo I believe a strategy is to use the weight of your opponent to his disadvantage: I suggest a campaign to colour all the decaying infrastructure blue and yellow would twist the huge propaganda message around to associate the war with the crappy conditions we are expected to endure!
The counter offensive reminds me of this great clip from Black Adder about General Melchett’s latest top secret plan that everyone knew about….”Maximum Secrecy, Mum’s the word…”
https://youtu.be/y9o_nu6WWEg
If the Ukrainian plans really are being circulated to every NATO country then it is hard to see how they cannot leak. The Russians maybe ought to be the least happy people because publishing this now means it is obvious that the plans are not secret!
Assuming, of course, this is not all some giant disinformation program and the real plans are known only to Zaluzhny.
It’s disinformation. Instead of hitting on specified points, they will hit 100km to the side.
Larry cannot let go of the Evan Gershkovich obsession… and of attempting to clean him off his spying, by what is becoming his mantra: the journalist-spy is as entitled to his spying (on a foreign enemy country – which is engaged in a war of liberation against the journalist-spy’s country) as Assange was to publish another’s spying on the criminality of his own country.
Something to behold.
If Merkel and Hollande publicly acknowledged the existence since before 2014 of the Western plan to attack Russia using the Ukrainian Nazis, there is nothing more to say. Those confessions are worth more than any document.
You are completely right Liborio.
If the leaking of ‘SECRET’ documents is disturbing, how about this news item https://www.rt.com/news/574335-us-blindsided-saudi-iran/
CIA chief admits US ‘blindsided’ by Saudi-Iran deal – WSJ
Top diplomats from Tehran and Riyadh met in Beijing on Thursday to reestablish contacts between the longtime rivals
CIA Director William Burns has told Saudi officials that the United States was caught off guard, after the kingdom agreed to a normalization deal with Iran brokered by China, according to the Wall Street Journal.
During an unannounced trip to Saudi Arabia this week, Burns “expressed frustration” with Riyadh and said Washington “felt blindsided” by its renewed diplomacy with both Iran and Syria, multiple unnamed sources told the Journal on Thursday.
RT also has the leaking of ‘SECRET’ info story https://www.rt.com/news/574334-leak-documents-ukraine-pentagon/
‘Secret’ NATO war plan leak triggers Pentagon probe – NYT
Officials say they are struggling to scrub the sensitive material from the internet
A leaked trove of classified documents outlining American and NATO war planning in Ukraine has sparked a US military investigation, the New York Times has reported. The briefing presentation slides, some marked “top secret,” show assessed troop strengths, timelines for arms shipments and ammunition expenditures, among other data.
The files appeared on social media earlier this week, and while the source remains unclear, the leaks have set off alarms in the Pentagon, which has launched a probe to determine how the documents were obtained, the NYT reported on Thursday.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told the outlet.
Officials said they are working to have the material removed from the internet, but had not succeeded as of Thursday night.
One of the documents marked “top secret” provides the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar.,” suggesting the slides are several weeks old. Though they do not describe any specific battle plans, the files offer a glimpse into US intelligence assessments for Russian and Ukrainian troop levels, timetables for training and equipment deliveries, weather data, as well as ammunition expenditures – including for the US-supplied HIMARS platform. The Pentagon has not previously disclosed the rate at which Ukrainian forces are using munitions for the weapon.
Some of the documents appear to have been altered, with multiple different versions circulating online showing wildly varying estimates for losses on both sides of the conflict.
Another file lists 12 new Ukrainian combat brigades – which are usually made up of 4,000 to 5,000 troops – noting that the US and NATO bloc are training and supplying nine of them. Of those, the document states that six would be ready by the end of March, and the remaining three by April 30.
If genuine the documents represent one of the most significant intelligence breaches since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and come as Kiev is reportedly preparing a major counter-offensive against Russian forces. One of the documents shows two possible routes into the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. It is unclear when the counter-attacks are set to begin, but Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov recently claimed that the two sides would fight a “final” and “decisive battle” sometime in the spring.
If leaks are not prosecuted , then they are intended. The real question is Qui Bono ?
Information warfare is a thing. Doing it right is another. 🙂
“The real question is Qui Bono ?”
Only to spectators who ponder what is the score, and others of ignorance who pose this question in hope of obfuscating their ignorance.
The real question is how can I render the context a utility in furtherance of my purpose?
Come on , the battlefield is a mud-pit right now … getting a “we are not ready yet and have still a lot of questions unanswered” sort of docs “out” right now , is just gross… It’s not a “Secret Russian Reports” that leaked , it’s a supposed piece of NATO “intel” found in one of the junkyards of the Internets.
So, Qui Bono ? Is a legit question. The thing is shit anyway …
Cui Bono must be a mole because every time his head pops up in this or that incident, it gets wacked out of sight by the MSM.
File him away with ‘precedent’. They have no use nor meaning in the rules-based international order du jour.
If the New York Times is reporting on “leaked military documents” outlining a “secret” Ukrainian counterattack plan for early May 2023, then the question becomes: Why?
One possible answer could be that the “involuntary exposure” of such an attack plan has compromised all chances of a Ukrainian military success…thereby “unfortunately” necessitating western ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
Meanwhile, the US-imposed post-WWII economic order is collapsing at breakneck speed, for all the world to see.
In short, could such a grandiose face-saving manoeuvre be the best that the collective west can still hope for?
You’re second-guessing the NYT now? Dangerous habit.
It must be one of:
1) Intended to warn of impending Ukraine’s disaster and a warning to halt it before it reaches a very inconvenient tipping point for the west.
2) Intended to warn of impending Ukraine’s disaster and a warning to escalate it with delivery of more arms, troops whatever.
3) A simple Normandy style ruse, designed to disguise true plans, if such do exist.
Pick your poison.
4) NYT wants to say “told you so”. They need to maintain some credibility. (Or maybe not, maybe people will keep reading them no matter what.)
I’m out planting onions this afternoon, wondering among the hundreds of small green shoots, does the NYT have a department dedicated to cleaning its own archives of its lying propaganda so as to maintain some historical record, or does it just leave all the crap there online? Is Judith Miller’s fine reporting from Iraq still on line? That was – other than a few other gems I got sent by others – the last time I read the NYT. What a waste of the 1st Amendment.
Hi Larry, to borrow your words, they can’t be that stupid can they?
What are the chances of the leak being part of an internal struggle to close the curtain on Ukraine chapter (or Afghan 2.0)? The increasing sunk cost is disastrous, but since the GAE overplayed PR hand so much there’s no reverse gear publicly, not that leadership (if they can be called that) wants to back off.
Anyway, Blinken has announced the Ukies offensive in coming weeks. Makes you wonder, what has a US non-military diplomat got to do with war updates way across the ponds hmmm
The documents are almost two months ago. Tell you nothing about current situation. Provides insights into the state of mind as of 1 March.
The first act by our leaders here in Europe after Feb24 2022 was to shut down RT.
And yet the BBC are still beaming out reports from Moscow every day.
But not Donetsk city (Where the “wrong” kinds of Ukrainians are being massacred)
So despite having their media shut down across The West, the Russians are allowing Western media to carry on as usual. Even so, they are not going to allow a journalist to start sniffing around armaments factories in a time of war.
While I respect Larry’s principles on the matter, comparing this fella Gershkovich with Sy Hersh or Julian Assange is an insult to the other two.
From the BLUF:
“Equipment Delivery times will impact training and readiness in order to meet this deadline.”
Translated from Bureaucratese:
Use of the word “will” rather than “may” means that equipment deliveries WILL be later than needed AND that training and readiness WILL be inadequate.
Therefore, this sentence may be written in Plain English as:
Equipment deliveries will be too late to ensure full training and readiness before the deadline.
53 tanks delivery TBD (to be determined, i.e., no fkn idea when they are coming)
“Estimated” (i.e., we don’t know but maybe if we’re lucky) deliveries in April: over 130 items, tanks, SP arty, towed arty, APC’s.
Of 253 tanks required, only 80 T-64/T-55/AMX-10 were on hand at the report date.
Of the remaining 173,
53 are TBD,
14 are “estimated” for April.
105 are confirmed in April,
19 are confirmed in March.
If this offensive kicks off in May, the AFU will be neither fully trained nor ready.
This report is an excellent example of how when leaders do not want bad news, only positive reporting, a dire situation can be presented in a very positive manner. In such cases, it is very important to very carefully read the caveats inserted by those who write the reports, and to give considerable weight to those caveats. They are there for CYA, so that when everything turns to sh!t, the report writers cannot be accused of lying or misrepresentation.
Very pretty report. High marks for use of colours,fonts and layout, but could use more graphics and animations. Try harder next time.
Darn straight us good folks have a right but even more so the need to know what the lunatics running the regime in DC are up to. In no uncertain terms that is. No evcuses. No more lies. No more phsychological warfare against we the people. No more surveillance state with its gangstalkers and glowies, influence agents, method actor troupe, the whole sordid illegal illegitimate nasty thing.
Everything, Everything we are told to believe, is a lie. And when I look at everything the regime says and what its media complex does this way, how everything is couched in lies and dissimulation, particularly plausible deniability, it is so simple so easy to surmise what these clowns are up to, at moments I get the urge to start ringing on a cow bell. It is really that stupid, it is this combo if ifiocy, immaturity, critical thinking gone afoot like it never existed as a tool of rational humans, but what it looks like to myself, this gaggle of regime actors, the politicals running stuff from the DC clubhouse, they think themselves worthy of centralized control over Ukraine, they micro-manage day to day operations, if my inuitions are close they lack the Wariors knowledge of war and especially killing time, so much so they do not even understand they have no idea of war, and this skews their percetions and thinking, it drives their decision making cause they are cause and effect gratification animals, addicted to their stations of power and especially influence, that they can not help themselves, propably giddy with glee they will be in command of the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive. To have their fingerprints of influence on such glorious history is a drug, which they just love to share how they have this power. Can’t help themselves.
Things must be ready to pop, last night watch a short V-clip of a Bradly AFV go boom north west of Ugleda, and a report of Striker APCs taken out with the Russia’s superb Kornet ATGM, the other Striker crispy crittered by a Russian self guided tube artilary shell, they ramped up use if these considerably, hughly accurate, under 3ft point of aim.
The Russian Alliance will not let that greatest NATO offensive thru to get the it meathooks on the warm water ports in Crimea.
It surely looks to me everything all else aside the lunatics behind this show are incompitent in ways which are difficult to sum up in few words, and that incompetency is aligned with illegitimacy, of course the two mortal sins of averise, add to it a certain bloodthirsty, never their own blood, state of mind. Omnipotency at its height that drives them all. Pure collectivists.
All that seems obvious to me is that the US seems pretty desperate to get Russia back to the negotiating table. All those “hardware & troop” “leaks” are pretty desperate.
The way I see it, the plan is a massive air & sea campaign aimed at the destruction of Crimea & Zaporozia nuke plant.
They can’t win a ground attrition war, all those “leaked” artillery etc is hogwash.
My crystal ball reads: Massive drone strikes, massive air campaign (NATO dressed in Ukraine uniforms) massive sea launch’s, coupled with land campaign with Polish invasion/distraction against Belarus in the North. Massive cyberattacks & jamming, possibly even satellite attack.
Too many leaders, including Lulu are basically saying: “Take recognition of Crimea as a win and walk away”…
The West is saying: take the deal or we destroy Crimea. It’s also possible they have a Nuke catastrophe in mind at Zaporizia during this same campaign.
As for “ground war” continuing or as the “great offensive “… I’m not seeing it. So none of those “leaks” really matter. Yes they’ll be well supplied etc.
The idea at this point is to create an international incident , destroy Sevastable & Crimea & drag NATO in.
As much as I’d like to think they wouldn’t be that stupid, all indications are, the only West face saving plan is recognizing Crimea & having Russia give up everything else & move on.
And Russia isn’t going to do that. So, as usual, whatever those NaZees in Kiev can’t control… they will destroy on there way out.
As for China. No, they know and haven’t said a word about “Crimea” so no, they are fully aware of what’s coming. The West needs this “win” badly… (no not “Joe Biden” for some election gambit ) the West… the US/Uk/NATO… the need “the world” to “fear” them again… they need the bleeding of the US dollar dominance to stop.
So, a “shock & awe” is coming… they don’t care how many drones, pilots or ships they lose, as long as it ends with Crimea destruction.
My guess is the last Security Council meeting would h Russia & Belarus present, the Security Council has pre-approved a “declaration of war” prior to the start of the “great offensive”
Russia & Belarus are well aware of the “real plan” now that phone “leaked” land war stuff.
‘My crystal ball reads: Massive drone strikes, massive air campaign (NATO dressed in Ukraine uniforms) massive sea launch’s, coupled with land campaign with Polish invasion/distraction against Belarus in the North. Massive cyberattacks & jamming, possibly even satellite attack.’
This is probably pretty close to what we should expect.
Massive drone attacks are sorta possible, but a “massive air campaign” is as difficult to imagine as a “massive sea campaign”.
The losses would be all but guaranteed to go far beyond mere men and materiel, extending to whatever credibility NATO still enjoys. If Russia used such an attack as a casus belli for a declaration of war, loss of credibility would be the least of the West’s concerns.
What’s more, the destruction of Crimea would be far from guaranteed.
The West bet on propaganda, sanctions and a colour revolution to weaken Russia. All 3 failed. They have no stomach, much less the capability of waging a real war. In fact, a real war would likely trigger indigenous colour revolutions across the West.
“if a source freely leaked this to Evan Gershkovich or Julian Assange or Sy Hersh, would they be guilty of “espionage?”
If those reporters were working on behalf of a foreign hostile power, then yes, they would be guilty of espionage. I don’t think any country in the world would think otherwise.
If, on the other hand, those reporters were gaining information relating to criminal activity of their own government, then no, it would not be ‘espionage’ nor should there be any prohibition to them publishing their findings if it was in the public interest to do so and if no harm to innocents would be derived from doing so. All countries have varying restrictions on ‘free speech’ or ‘freedom of the press’ – they only differ in the degree of those restrictions.
‘Freedom’ is never simply ‘freedom’ – it always carries with it ‘responsibility’. Otherwise, we have ‘anarchy’ and ‘lawlessness’.
What, only 60’000 troops in this supercalifragilisticexpialidocious offensive which can only take place at the end of this month! Yawn, I’m crawling back to bed, today is a holiday where I am.
So it uses imperial measurements instead of metric? If so, it wasn’t prepared by anyone in the US military. An operations order done for a platoon is done in metrics, much less anything from higher up. Maybe its being suppressed as part of a psyop. Maybe it’s not genuine but contains a lot of genuine/correct information. I don’t know. But using imperial measurements instead of metric sounds like something some foreign internet blogger would have done knowing that Americans use imperial measurements while not having any firsthand experience with the US military or any training like a member of an actual foreign intelligence service.
This whole spring offensive thing is weird. At this point it is the most telegraphed and anticipated counter offensive since Kursk. I think it is entirely possible that it never occurs and is merely a phantom designed to keep moral up and to keep Ukrainians fighting and Europeans invested. It will keep getting pushed back as spring turns to summer snd summer to fall. Or maybe it kicks off tomorrow. Who knows?
Is that true? I’d think that most of the US military other than mechanics or Latin American immigrants would struggle with metrics. They’d probably struggle with SAE too, but metrics would definitely throw them for a loop.
Anyone remember that NASA incident?
“But using imperial measurements instead of metric sounds like something some foreign internet blogger would have done knowing that Americans use imperial measurements…”
You may quite right of course, but my impression of it was that it appeared to be prepared for presentation to a House or Senate committee or a non-military Administration audience rather than professional military, and who couldn’t be expected to be fully familiar with the metric system.
That would also go a long way to explaining the leak.
Could this have been leaked by Ukrainians themselves – it’s an open secret that the “counteroffensive” is the US’ baby and if launched will only end in the destruction of what’s left of the Ukrainian Army, but it is a condition set by the US for continuing support. If it’s blown, maybe the troops can be put to more sensible and less suicidal use?
The usual Cold War relics and museum pieces, that think that it’s still 1985, believe that the Russians are too weak and incompetent to do anything about this latest “offensive.” Which is partially why they’re lax on security and secrecy, and other things, as well. When you underestimate your enemy, you tend to slack off on doing the job right, and start to become careless and prone to mistakes.
I also imagine that there are some characters in Washington, that actually think that the Russians will be intimidated and disheartened by this info. Which is another mistake.
E
First, to avoid any misunderstanding, I don’t pretend to be a military expert. My knowledge of things military is limited to eleven months of military service and a few years on defence software projects, among which a battlefield information system. By military logic, unless a failed offensive is the plan, a skim through the document tells me that it reeks of disinfo. There are some too obvious inconsistencies.
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” — Mike Tyson.
Originally they wanted to replicate Operation Mincemeat but they could not be bothered, so they just released fake documents on Instagram.
there are no “rights” so there are no “rights to know.” (natural rights are interesting mythical beings, akin to unicorns. you can talk like they’re real, but that doesnt make them actually real.)
there are only laws and contracts that are enforced “rights” stem from enforceable contracts, which is to say they real stem from force or the threat of force.
where does the threat of force come from? well, either from the state apparatus (police etc) or from the mass of people themselves (cf France where this tension is playing out in 3D.)
in this WSJ case,the “right to know” is enforced by the same state that feels threatened by leaked secrets. so there is a conflict of interest. the state determines what constitutes “espionage.”
so it is incumbent on the people to learn what they must. the talk of “rights” and “laws” simply obfuscate the urgency. sometimes a nations laws align with the people’s will, and sometimes not.
so really the question to ask is “who’s interests is the “journalist” in question really serving? those of the people or of the state?”
Seems awfully sophisticated to merely be a fake. You have to come up with five dudes and a dudette aboard a yacht to reach western disinformation levels.
A right to know? No I don’t think that exists. Power is absolute and there are no rights unless granted, and only then until revoked.
And to be honest, while I do follow the news and like such “hot leaks”, in the end only what happens on the ground counts. The rest is just for amusement.
Besides, lets not kid ourselves, we don’t matter anyhow.
Adding to previous post I posted earlier:
“Defender 23” April 22nd
Ukraine Spring Offensive?
Coincidence? Or just “another drill”?
Pentagon updated post: Armenia will not participate. And Putin finished call today with Armenia Pres…
Coincidence ? Or is CTSO exp cited to be called up?
I think this is an example of a colonic condition known as “impacted principles”…. Why do you keep using scare quotes around “espionage”? It’s a clearly defined criminal code, in the US, the RF. How about let’s look at the law, the charges, the facts known. This is best done after removing head from rectum.
As for the source of the leak?
I would check to see if anyone in the Pentagon owns a sailing yacht named Andromeda.
Cheers,
Freeman
I would check to see if anyone in the Pentagon owns a sailing yacht named Andromeda.
…..and if the captain was a certain Donnie Brasco.
Oh, Andromeda… 🙂
NASA is allocating $52B for finding and arresting Pioneer-10 broadcasting platform spreading harmful disinformation about humankind.
https://t.me/sharanism/14451
They have plans for counteroffensives. They also have plans for defending “Kyiv”. Why do you think they want to seize the monastery in the center of the city, overlooking the river?
I thought they simply wanted to commit ethnic cleansing against anything Russian, just like in the old days.
Poles, you’ll be revisited next once you’re no longer useful. Never underestimate Ukrainian blood lust.
The Guardian are claiming that the figures have been swapped and that over 200,000 Russians have died in Ukraine, while only 16K – 17K Ukrainians have died.
Amazingly, there are many folks around who believe this stuff!
One person, according to his data on the number of graves who died in the SVO in some cities and according to the data of those mobilized in these cities, indirectly calculated the number of dead Russians. According to his calculations, it turned out that 18 thousand Russians died in a year.
Anyone who gets his war news from the Guardian needs his head examined.
I’d say that if Assange knew at the time that certain Telegram channels had it all, he could have just pointed to those channels and have remained a free man !
I do find it hilarious (against the Deep State that is) that NATO is leaking, that Telegram has it, and that our friend Larry Johnson has the expertise and outlet to analyze it openly for the viewing public. Thanks, Larry !
Assange would be proud !
Speaking of Larry’s expertise; Mercouris’ house/apt is being rewired. What are the chances the company is MI6Electrical?
In 1954 keeping secrets was much different, but as always law, bureaucracy, govt. are 15 years behind technology. In 1954 everything was on paper or microfilm, today it doesn’t have to be, but lawyers insist on having “documents” even within NATO. Today the information on this “document” can be disseminated electronically, in pieces, encrypted, and specifically on need to know. This “document” is just an example of how law lags technology. In a few years when law catches up to technology, we’ll first assume such leaks of a PDF are more likely to be a deep fake than a leak, because there won’t actually be a “document” to be leaked in the first place. I support journalists, but in time their job will become almost impossible when the fields of law and technology, AI, CBDC, etc. are 100% embraced, at that point we’ll long for the day when anything at all the govt does gets leaked. On that day we’ll be under total control, speech, money, everything.
Its hard to see how if its Russian disinformation, it benefits Russia. It also suggests a patchwork offensive, that likely will fail – it doesn’t really make NATO look good, either.
Psy-op to help enact “The Restrict Act” and clamp down on the Internet.
My personal opinion.
REMEMBER: Not all which happens in Poland stays in Poland.
https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/poland-hundreds-of-military-vehicles-at-the-port-of-gdynia-in-the-framework-of-the-atlantic-resolve-mission/
One would think that, per elementary game theory, in an existential ‘contest’, one opponent’s objectives might be to weaken the internal unity of its antagonist and to weaken the latter’s alliances. In the ‘fog of war’ , released past information is almost meaningless (unless it is deliberately done to weaken trust in one or the other of the contestants). On the other hand, at the strategic level, when Russia’s key ally China has a tête-à-tête with France, which might be promoting Airbus et al when the USA can’t get a session to represent its oligarchs, like Boeing, or when the head of VW in Germany wants to discuss doing business with Mr. Putin; the strength or weaknesses of key alliances might be worth paying attention to.
Sounds like a ham-handed deception attempt, similar to WWII “Operation Mincemeat.”
Macron went to China to discuss the war, Putin and Ukraine, but Xi did not hear him, writes the Western press following the visit of the French President to Beijing.
In particular, Macron tried to enlist the support of China both personally and publicly, which Xi did not like, writes the BBC.
And when Macron decided to address him directly and started talking about Ukraine, Xi did not hide his irritation and even sighed impatiently a couple of times.
Macron suggested that Xi put pressure on Putin and “bring Russia to its senses” in order to stop the aggression against Ukraine. Xi did not react to these words in any way, never mentioned Russia, and never once uttered the word “war”.
The French newspaper Le Monde also writes that “Macron failed to convince Xi Jinping”.
She notes that Macron was unable to persuade Xi to even condemn Putin’s intention to send nuclear weapons to Belarus. The Chinese leader escaped with traditional general words about non-proliferation, world peace and respect for the interests of all countries.
“Really cold shower,” Le Monde quoted an unnamed French diplomat as saying.
The French newspaper, Les Echos, writes that “Xi has not succumbed to Macron’s charm.”
“The French president confirmed that Beijing is capable of playing a crucial role in finding a path to peace, but no movement was seen from Xi’s side,” the newspaper writes. “He made no hint of a possible change in the Chinese position in reconciling Moscow and Kiev “.
China Daily writes following the meeting that “Beijing and Moscow are deepening ties.”
Politico writes that while Macron spoke for himself, Xi read from a piece of paper.
Xi also did not respond to calls to besiege Putin or at least refrain from military assistance. And just before the Europeans’ visit, newly appointed Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang decided to have his first phone call in his new rank with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin.
“China applied the principle of divide and rule to two European leaders who came together to present a united European front,” writes Politico and notes that Xi even tried to present Macron as his ally in the fight against the US, saying that France and China “jointly oppose the mentality of the cold war and bloc confrontation.”
Recall, Reuters, following the results of the talks between the President of France and the leader of China in Beijing , reported that Xi Jinping persuaded Macron to “confront” with the United States.
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According to this article supplied by BBC/REUTERS and LeMonde. Macron and VanDerleydens trip to bend XiJeping was a disaster.
XiJeping even read letters as Macron the French fop blathered on, trying to convince XeJeping to not side with Russia.
He got nowhere.
In fact XeJinping turned Macron on Biden.
Russia and China deepened their committments knowing the hammer is going to fall on China next.
Macron left with an empty rice bowl.
As Paris is in flames.
And the embarrassment of all the war plans of NATO and Barney Fife swirl the internet.
THE EMPIRE OF LIES.
USA and their Empire is dying
Don’t know if anyone has mentioned this yet, got tired of reading, but…
The Biteme administration has more excuses than hm, well everybody put together. Reality ain’t their thang. First thing that occurred to me was they’re building in an excuse why their perfect plan was FUBAR’d by fill in the blanks and we got to leave now. (I can hear the spin now)
It would fit with everything these demented aholes do lately. Election time coming up and they have some cattle to bamboozle again.
There are probably multiple factions within the DOD in favor and opposed to more war. Leaks become a form of combat.
I completely agree with this most salient observation which takes us back to the only thing we can do: wait and see
“I think it is highly likely that Russia’s intelligence service has assets within the NATO ranks that are providing more recent information of this kind to the Russian military commanders and that they have a pretty good idea of the force they will face and where it will attack. If they do not then Western claims that the Russian military is inept will be verified.”
28.2.23 Finland was not a part of NATO structure but they were given NATO documents.
Does anyone see that.
The Russian Defense Ministry again decided to recall the biolabs that the United States opened on the territory of Ukraine. Currently, the Ukrainian scientific and technical center is once again recruiting personnel who will be engaged in research, the Russian Defense Ministry stressed. There is a risk of spreading dangerous pathogens in the areas of biolabs.
https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2023/04/07/16523377.shtml
news from today.
Per
Norway
“The French newspaper, Les Echos, writes that “Xi has not succumbed to Macron’s charm.””
Macron couldn’t convince a mouse to eat cheese.
I’d guess that NATO may soon regret (if they do not yet) allowing former Warsaw Pact nations into NATO.
The leaders of the Baltic states seem to be committed to act as permanent lapdogs of NATO and USA…. And Ukraine of course..
So possibly all the public chatter about an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive is just a misinformation campaign, not unlike the one that preceded the D-Day invasion at Normandy to throw the Germans off track. OTOH, one would think that Russia has an intelligence network, including eyes in the sky, that will keep them apprised of all Ukrainian preparations.
Hi Larry,
I reference your article in my own video analysis. Based on my own (unfortunate) experiences with death by powerpoint in the military, these slides look real, but they might also be military deception. The counts of GMLRS also add up with predictions I’ve made previously. I would be VERY curious to hear what you think of this.
https://readingjunkie.com/2023/04/07/nato-battle-plans-leaked-lets-analyze/
I find Larry’s espionage question thought-provoking. I suggest that Julian Assange and other whistleblowers were labelled by Western governments as spies precisely in order to suggest that they were doing what people like Gershkovich was alleged to have done – namely passing military secrets on to a hostile power.
It seems to me that there is, however, a clear distinction in principle between revealing acts that are illegitimate in peace or war and committed by one’s own military on the one hand, and revealing military data (shifts at weapons factories) to a foreign power.
I think Larry has a good point, though, that espionage CAN aid transparency and that a West that truly understood its enemy would be less likely to fight it. Nevertheless, I do think the in principle distinction remains.
//News: https://tass.com/russia/1601581
…”Ukrainian services to publish fake radio talks about use of ‘chemical weapons’ by Russia”…
There are 3 articles published in Tass regarding upcoming Kiev PR campaign.
It all makes the “leak” and big “spring offensive” thing make sense. Remember in Syria, when they were winning, took Aleppo & then, Assad was desperate? So…
I think this runs along those sane lines: Allegedly, Kiev has Recordings of Russian servicemen discussing use of “chemical weapons” and MLLRS Grads being used, making an international incident requiring an immediate UNSC meeting.
I don’t know if publishing this like they have when intercepted other plans by Kiev will change anything…
But since Russia has run out of ammo, missiles, using convicts with shovels to fight, well, makes sense all they have left in their desperation is to go chemical.!! Especially with the big spring offensive and all that hardware & men coming at them soon!!!
My gawd… this is the worst B movie ever!
If I understand him correctly Larry’s position is that reporters reporting leaked classified information have done nothing wrong. Those who leak the information violated their non disclosure agreements can and perhaps should be prosecuted.
Government thugs hide their evil activities behind the cloak of national security. What person with a lick of sense supports them and their nefarious activities?
Yes, you understand correctly.
I really have to laugh at all the western MSM who are leaping on the documented estimates of 17,000 Russian KIA and 70,000 Ukrainian KIA as “proof” that the documents have been altered.
Because? Well, because Milley has publicly stated that Russia has lost over 100,000 KIA.
And Milley wouldn’t lie to us, would he?
QED: the documented figure has been altered.
The obvious question to ask is this: did Milley state that figure under oath?
Because if he didn’t then he can lie to his heart’s content.
W.R.T. the Biden Administration being cranky about these documents, can I point out that he has the sole authority to punch a massive hole in the credibility of this entire effort?
The key is the document that the NYTimes claims to have seen that estimates “17,000 Russian KIA and 70,000 Ukrainian KIA”.
Nonsense! cries the MSM. That’s not what Milley has been saying! It must be doctored!
Well, Biden has sole authority to order that document to be declassified.
He can then wave it about at a press conference and point directly to the line-item that proves the Russians had altered the copy before leaking it.
Biden could to that with the stroke of a pen, and by doing so shoot down the entire disinformation operation like a straying Chinese weather balloon.
Mind you, if he doesn’t…….
I’ll go for the booby prize since no one really seems to know:
The Pentagon deliberately leaked the information to fake a spring offensive that isn’t going to happen.
Why?
1) they fooled Russian intelligence last year with a fake attack near Kherson when the real one was Kharkov: a show victory for more aid yet AFU took spectacular ground.
2) April 30 is too early-mud The offensive can’t happen until June.
3)Ukraine if clearly failing and U.S.-Ukraine need an exit strategy:
Zelensky has talked about negotiations if Bahkmut falls or he can’t penetrate South toward Black Sea.
If so, U.S. can claim Zelensky chickened out while Zelensky can claim U.S. didn’t supply aid in time
As for any journo publishing this stuff, he’s putting his reputation on line since the source is not reliable.
I guess calling it a leak would exculpate him but he still might inadvertantly be playing gov’t stooge without specifically acknowledging that it could be American disinformation as well as Russian. A genuine leak is really the least likely, IMO.
U.S. gov’t is sloppy, many are disaffected but penalties are stiff and it’s not that hard to catch a real leaker.
In fact, aren’t most leaks deliberate?
Wasn’t Qanon some gov’t leaker operation?
It’s not like they don’t do stuff like this and, most important, why is the leaker leaking?
Of course, they’ll try to have it all deleted or it won’t look authentic.
No surprise, the media is reluctant and it stays up a while longer, untilit’s all over the regular press: mission accomplished.
I’d think a real leak would have gone down fast and CIA would have squashed dissemination.
If I was a party to a war and wanted my enemy to swallow some disinformation, I would leak the stuff and once it had had a reasonable amount of exposure, do my damndest to shut it down with every sign of panic that these ‘truths’ had been leaked.
What’s your previous experience in the field of intelligence? Do tell? Or are you just a fan of James Bond movies?
I have no experience of the field of ‘military intelligence’ – just ‘normal’ intelligence. It’s a logical conclusion. If you wanted someone to believe your misinformation, would you not do everything you (logically) could to make it believable? Reacting as if it was a real leak which you were anxious to recover from would surely be the sensible way to convince? No?
As for the “James Bond” – kind of beneath you, surely?
There’s not much point in you having a reply link beneath your comments, if you won’t post replies to your comments. Maybe you could put a little statement at the head of your blog to the effect that anyone disagreeing with you won’t be published – then we’ll all know where we stand.
I’ll make the decision about what content to post. If you don’t like it you are not being forced to read my material.
OK, fair enough, but I want you to know that I agree with at least 90% of what you say in your articles.
What gets my Irish up is when an aspiring commenter questions my intelligence or integrity. I have zero tolerance on those fronts. Otherwise, I allow people who disagree with me to comment. Just look at the reaction to my first post on Evan Gershkovich.
There is lot of justified suspicion that the NATO “leak” is a deception operation by NATO, but whatever it is the leak is a gold plated meme to shock Americans awake to the fact that Joe Biden is about to start World War 3 with Russia.
So just run with the meme and let the professional intelligence people worry about its authenticity.