Has anyone seen the video from 2-days ago from Yevgeny Prigozhin surrounded by the dead bodies of his Wagner fighters and saying “Shoigu, Gerasimov, where … is the ammunition? We are lacking 70% of the needed ammunition! The blood is still fresh. They came here as volunteers and are dying so you can sit like fat cats in your luxury offices.” Now in his latest video, Prigozhin says “I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the Defense Ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds. I’m withdrawing Wagner PMC units because without ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death”. What is going on??? Why isn’t the MOD supporting the Wagner PMC? Is it all just an internal power struggle? And where is Putin? Why isn’t he doing anything?
Dead soldiers on the final assault of a months long urban warfare where enemies are covering a retreat with all the fire they have left on a smaller and smaller space are to be expected. Everyone seems to be firing more those days anyway.
What Prigozhin did was giving a few more days of hope to the kakhols … his usual “don’t stop war” scheme. The “I am once again asking for your ammo support” is a CEO ” two birds , one stone” move : he wanna keep his raw materials available (AFU bodies to slaughter) and wanna look as the paternal boss wanting to preserve his workforce (Wagner).
He can do it the way he does cause for him it won’t be military insubordination and it won’t be taken lightly by ukrop side … despite his now long history with maskirovka. The guy is the mercenarism Elon Musk : will he buy Telegram after the SMO ?
I haven’t seen this part:
“I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the Defense Ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds. I’m withdrawing Wagner PMC units because without ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death”
In any case, who knows, maybe they are baiting UKR forces to attack there, or maybe situation really isn’t ideal ( Simplicitus wrote that UKR have likely greatly increased artillery fire in that region), maybe RU MOD wants to employ some new tactics with their best units, but need a reason why Wagner’s are withdrawing, in any case, who knows…
Probably encouraging Zelensky to send more men into the meat grinder.
“And where is Putin? Why isn’t he doing anything?”
Drone strike messed up his WiFi, and he has problems getting advice from armchair generals on Telegram. He was last seen in a local cafe asking for a password, and complaining that he has to order something in order to get it.
Someone certainly did drop the ball on that issue. I’m sure Prigozhin did talk to whoever is in charge and apparently since nothing happened to improve the situation, he simply had no better way as to expose this to the public. Putin is not in charge of the SMO. Someone’s head will be rolling for that, if it is true that nothing was done to resolve that situation. We will see. But his decision to hand over the positions to the RU army and withdraw his forces seems rather to be a logical conclusion of his.
Maybe this is a planed distraction to focus the AFU efforts to retake Artemovsk, rather than to stike somewhere else. A classic trap so to speak.
Prigozhin is a strange person. One never knows whether he is trolling the CW or whether he is telling the truth. Personally, I think that he is on uppers and when he is down comes out with stuff like this. He has an inflated concept of his importance and gives little credit to the RF forces.
It is a weird way of doing it but I saw the video, read opinions, and wonder if he just BS ing, also called gaslighting.
Milley and Austin look dignified but that is exactly what they do.
In that Soledar caves weapons cache video he behaved like a real boss. You can call it ‘mafia boss’ or Patton-like boss’, it’s basically the same anyway. Alpha-type with an adrenaline kicker.
He’s also a prima donna, not unlike Patton or John Gotti.
My first thought is that there is likely some reason, either external or internal, regarding why he is “permitted” to do this. In the West, folks that go against the narrative have their “wings clipped”, for example Mark Milley said in Nov, 22 to the NYT: “Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in, and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table…” Then walked that back a few days later.
It is hard for me to believe that in the middle of an existential SMO, that Prigozhin, a smart man, would be allowed to loose cannon like this. Historically, the Russians put a lot of work into Maskirovka, so I think we will have to wait and see.
My second thought is that the Russians have a long, complex and stealthy supply lines that have to be constantly reconfigured due to the weather, mud and NATO satellite reconnaissance. One can’t build up a huge ammunition dump behind the lines, like in the old days, as one Himar could take it out. It is likely the ammunition is distributed over a wide area and complexities (rainy days, lack of cloud cover, need to move at night, destroyed roads and bridges) may occasionally starve units of supplies.
My third thought is that the Russians are stockpiling ammunition. If you look at history, it took the Allies well over a year to stockpile enough troops and supplies for a cross-channel invasion (D-Day) and it took the US about 6 months to prepare for Desert Storm. Russia never went through this build-up phase, as the SMO was launched with a minimum of force, due the need for surprise. In the age of satellites, they could not have massed the majority of the Russian army on the Ukrainian border, without being detected. Had NATO been aware of that, they could have declared a pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops, daring the Russians to cross a huge red line. There is no way around this type of build-up phase, so possibly they are strategically allocating resources, causing the Wagner PMC problems. (Remember, Eisenhower & Bradley starved Patton of gasoline ( “with 400,000 gallons of gasoline he could be in Germany within two days”) for Operation Market Garden. Even the eventual winners don’t have inexhaustible supplies of ammunition and gasoline.
And my 4th observation is that the SMO started out as an “Allied” operation, between the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics, Russia, Chechen volunteers, Wagner PMC, etc… so Prigozhin still maybe operating with that structure / mentality in mind ??? So, what we might be seeing is a squabble not un0-similar to that between the Allies in World War II (Britain, USA, USSR, France, Poland…).
Sorry Rokossovsky, this simply does not adjust with reality:
“In the age of satellites, they could not have massed the majority of the Russian army on the Ukrainian border, without being detected. Had NATO been aware of that, they could have declared a pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops, daring the Russians to cross a huge red line. ”
It happened exactly like that: the Russians massed a big army at the border.
USA spent weeks telling that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. What happened? Simply that nobody believes what a liar says. Not even the Ukrainians believed it. Even more, they said (I heard that in Spain, I promise), that US should stop spreading that, because that was alarming investors, and the situation in Ukraine was worsening …
What you say also about NATO “pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops” …
Well, it simply makes again not sense (it is a consequence of what you say right before, which as I say it makes no sense).
– that would mean immediately a direct war with Russia (is there any reader of this blog that disagrees with this?). Much different than a proxy war. The US have no problem with a lot of Ukrainians fighting for democracy (and blablá blablá), but .. ey, do you think that they are crazy to a direct war, where they could die in thousands? They are bad, but not that crazy. They prefer others to die.
So, this part of your message, I totally disagree. (The first two “thoughts” are very insightful in my opinion).
This is 90 minutes but worth it. Mark talks about Prigozhin…it’s a game he plays, in his opinion…psyops..,I had not connected that the Wagner Group has a specialty if urban warfare..
His Substack mailing list is free, as he explains at the end. No way to pay.
If you’re referring to Mark Sleboda’s comments on The New Atlas, I’m not sure I’d agree with him. Something beyond infowar games is going on.
Kadyrov was not alone in being deeply disturbed by Prigozhin’s egregious attacks on Shoigu, Gerasimov and the Russian Army rank & file, but especially by the images he published of Wagner KIAs. However, Kadyrov also indirectly acknowledged that Prigozhin has a case: ” I really hope that Sergei Kuzhugetovich [Shoigu] will listen to my call and an order will be given to the General Staff to go to the place and sort things out.”
On the assumption that Prigozhin hasn’t simply gone mad and/or succumbed to delusions of grandeur, one is still hard pressed to believe that the content and context of his recent outbursts in words and videos were intended to serve some ulterior purpose in Russia’s “master plan”.
Two possibilities stand out:
– that there are egregious problems within the military command structure and/or MoD that are impacting the war effort adversely. Kadyrov himself voiced his displeasure early in the war, and there’s been talk that the absence of his Chechens in recent months is related to that.
– that, if Prigozhin is not punished for his outbursts he enjoys the protection of (and perhaps speaks for) very powerful persons within the Kremlin who are likewise displeased. Perhaps persons on the National Security Council, and/or perhaps Putin himself are using Prigozhin to send a message. In his statement, Kadyrov is pained to note that Prigozhin’s insults have been met by silence from the MoD. To my mind, that suggests that they know Prigozhin’s complaints have merit, and that he’s speaking for someone above them.
Having said that, P may indeed have allowed emotion to overrun his political judgement. This is no time for a public cat fight, let alone so direct and vicious a public insult of the entire armed services.
Ukraine is but a mattine, HMS TERROR, even if Putin were to take the whole country it would solve nothing, NATO now surrounds Russia more than before, what Putin wants and needs is to face NATO (read the Americans), he doesn’t have to win the confrontation, nobody can win it, all he has to demonstrate is that the Americans in spite of their might cannot break or even subdue Russia.
If Russia could/wanted to take the whole Ukraine, they could also install rockets even closer to Berlin, Paris ..
(Not that they need it, having Kaliningrad .. but do the US need Ukraine in the NATO? And imagine what would mean for citizens in Berlin, to know that Russia could have missiles in Lvob -they got used to Kaliningrad. They should get used also to that .. would they? )
“NATO now surrounds Russia more than before”
I remember a joke famous in Spain some years ago. About an US general in Vietnam (so, many many years ago :)))
A captain informed him “Sire, we have enemies to the North, we have enemies to the South, to the West, and to the East. We are surrounded!”.
“Great, they cannot escape now from us!”
I think like that crazy general: now even Finland and Sweden could not escape from Russia …
Baronsays
It’s pure and undiluted rivalry, Ron, and an element of storing the ammo for the expected Ukrainian push later this month.
The Wagner musicians have been praised in Russia, have no problem with hiring, have a sizeable foreign participation, mostly from NATO countries, mostly NATO trained men. This more than bothers Shoigu, he isn’t very popular, it’s only his closeness to Putin that keeps him in the function, many believe he’s useless.
From Diplomacy to Killing Zelensky: Five Possible Russian Responses to Attacks on the Kremlin
Dmitry Peskov said that there would be a response to Ukrainian drone strikes on the Kremlin. And it will become “thoughtful, balanced and in line with the interests of our country”
Komsomolskaya Pravda, together with the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, a member of the Public Chamber and the host of Radio KP, Nikita Danyuk, analyzed possible scenarios.
1. A dagger strike against Bankovaya and the liquidation of the entire elite of Ukraine, including Zelensky.
– It is unlikely that this will happen, no matter how much a significant part of Russian society would like it. The strike with “Daggers”, and even more so with the liquidation of Zelensky, in my opinion, is not currently being considered. The Ukrainian conflict is part of a global puzzle. Let’s not forget about Zelensky’s recent conversation with Xi Jinping. So this does not look like the logic of the Russian authorities in the context of a special operation.
2. A strike on Bankova, when Zelensky is not there, not only the president’s office, but almost the entire government quarter will be completely destroyed.
– But such an action of intimidation, a show of force – is possible. Just as a blow to the Kremlin is symbolic, so the response to Bankovaya, to geographic and material decision-making centers, can be symbolic.
But the calculation of the Russian leadership is always not emotional, but cold, strategic. Therefore, they are unlikely to spend “Daggers” solely on a demonstration of strength.
3. Target elimination of the organizers of this raid and other sabotage. We are talking about the head of the main intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov, the head of the SBU Maliuk, and so on.
– A very likely scenario. We know that it is the GUR that is behind many terrorist acts and sabotage on the territory of our country. Moreover, Budanov has the courage to declare his plans publicly, in the press.
How can I do that? Give the GUR the status of a terrorist organization, like ISIS banned in Russia. Then the hands will be untied.
In addition, it will send a signal to the West that we do not intend to ignore such tools.
4. An exclusively diplomatic response: to raise the issue of recognizing Ukraine as a terrorist state both within Russia and in the international arena. Russia will try to demonstrate to the world that the Ukrainian authorities are inadequate and that one cannot do business with them.
– This scenario will not meet the expectations of a significant part of Russian society.
Let’s face it: the recognition of Ukraine as a terrorist country at the UN level is impossible. Recognition of its leadership as terrorists, even within Russia, is also not visible. But if the alignment of forces changes significantly in our favor, then such an instrument is possible.
5. The use of tactical nuclear weapons.
– This should not be considered as a real scenario at all. In my opinion, the use of nuclear weapons is possible only if Russia is on the verge of destruction.
Coverage in the West of politics in Russia is next to nil, including the so called alt media. Language is part of the problem, but so is the complexity of internal Russian intrigues that pits fifth columnists against the “6th columnists” (nationalists critical of Putin), current and ex-oligarchs, plus globalists and westernized Russians for as far as you care to look. For a glimpse of the complexity and the alt media silence on the subject:
There is no Western discussion of politics in Russia because any such discussion detracts from the party line that Russia is an autocracy and Putin is its Stalin, full stop.
True for the main stream media. But why the “alt” brigade? They will glancingly discuss, but there are many story lines in Russia that are ignored, particularly from the nationalist ant-globalist POV.
Why Wagner as a name? A former zek himself, could this lead to a Spartacus rebellion?MH-17 had similar fuselage colors as the Russian presidential aircraft, which was returning from Sao Paolo/BRIC conference. This is a SERVITO FREDDO experience-maybe a hit on Victor Pinchuk in Canada or Gusinsky in Tel HALEVI:) Don’t forget MUSA AL SADR(think Billy Beer).
Wagner music is kind of martial sometimes , remember the Woody Hallen quote ; “Everytime I listen Wagner , I fell like invading Poland”.
Still , a better name than “academi” , everytime I hear about academi , I think I’m back in school :).
Nato could have *never ever* installed a no-fly-zone over Ukraine. On what grounds shoud they have done it? Once Russia got into Ukraine to protect their new territories, there was maybe some way to explain such a move. But I don’t see any chance they could have done it ahead of the SMO. Nato wants in no way be involved. They can’t state that enough.
Nonetheless, Nato is utter impotent and they know it too, so all they can do is act independently by supporting Ukraine with weapons like they do now and tell everyone that they are in no way part of that conflict as anyone already knows that they are. They do it for legal reasons which is stupid anyway. Everything else they say is only PR BS to delude their own population that somehow everything is peachy contrary to reality. Nato is finished. They are useless and will fall apart as soon as someone does really cross a red line. Nato is mostly talk and zero action against real armies. Going after China is proof enough that those bubbleheads in Nato live in a totally different world and can’t really be taken seriously.
mr. johnson- i wonder what your thoughts are on what is going on here behind the scenes. when i look at history bureaucratic infighting can screw up the conduct of any war.
Considering how MacGregor, Ritter, Mercouris, and you have been wrong in predicting (many times now) that the war is about to be won by Russia; and yet it is still going on — is it not time for you guys to re-assess your analysis? How about considering the arguments Rolo Slavskiy has been making for months, that there are deep divisions within Russia, that Russia is bogged down in a war it never planned carefully, that a lot more Russians have died than you guys estimate? I am not saying I agree with him, but in light of recent events and in light of the fact that the predictions you guys made have not been actualized, it is time for a serious debate with alternative views such as the one by Slavskiy https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/alexander-mercouris-really-doesnt
The war is no longer with Ukraine, Rick, it has morphed into a war with NATO, the intelligence, the recognisance, the running of the drones, virtually everything except for the men at the front is all NATO, the funding the US, the Ukrainians are only the cannon fodder. The war would have been over in spite of all the inefficiencies, red tape, drunkenness, the envy of Wagner musicians and stuff in the Russian Armed Forces if it were just the Ukrainian intelligence and hardware.
The final objective remains a defeat of Russia, as another blogger here says ‘the uber-hawk Lindsay Graham made it clear some time ago: Spent on Vietnam — $1 Trillion; Spent on Afghanistan — $2 Trillion ; Earmarked for destroying Russia over the next 10 years — $6 Trillion. His closing quote: “And that $6 Trillion sounds like good value for money to me”. That’s what Russia faces, not Ukraine.
No real need for re-assessing yet, lets just wait a bit more and see how UKR offensive plays out, then things could maybe be re-assessed.
It is undeniable that UKR have lost ton of equipment and men, you only need to listen to what they and west themselves are saying like:
1 / Zaluzni said that he needs 300 tanks (and bla bla bla more) to conduct offensive. If you listen to UKR side, it is known that they had something like 1000 tanks at the start, it is also known that they have received more then 500 tanks before this latest batch, and if you listen to their own words, they have captured some 500 of RU tanks, so tell me, if they have 2.000 tanks and the did not lose any, what would 300 more do? If they have lost 2.000 tanks and receive 300 more, what do they expect to achieve with less then 15-20% of what they actually already had?
2 / If they have no loses, why did they go through 8 or who knows how many rounds of mobilization? If they have no loses, why do their own commanders and supporters complain that experienced soldiers are gone and that they are mostly handling inexperienced onese now?
3 / Even if you take western figures and say that RU have lost twice amount of UKR soldiers, RU is some 4-6 times larger country so even if that is the case, how is it losing?
4 / Ignore everything I wrote in first 3 steps if you want, you still have to realize that many big world players behave like RU is about to win, especially countries like CHN, IND, TURKEY, SAUD ARABIA, etc.
Do you really think they would dare to openly oppose West if they thought that RU is about to lose?
Do you think that those big and powerful countries don’t know what is really going on on multiple levels, and who do you think knows it if not them?
It all just obviously makes no sense what so ever.
What is causing everyone to doubt is that RU is going very slow to reduce casualties (and for other political and geo-political purposes), while West propaganda machinery is in the overdrive, therefore, just strap on for the longer then expected fight, and will see how it all plays out in the end.
When did any of them predict an outcome given certain conditions and it being inferred or understood to be self-evident that if said conditions didn’t materialize the prediction was invalid?
E.G: MacGregor and a winter offensive on frozen ground.
Most likely translation of Prigozhin’s outburst: “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch”. Time will tell.
As for Col. McGregor’s admittedly erroneous serial predictions of a forthcoming massive Russia assault — let’s not forget that General Winter failed to show up this year, whereas Corporal Rain has come & stayed. In the meantime, the military situation has changed, with the Zelensky regime committing to an assault.
Go back and look at the US Civil War. Many battles which featured Confederates defending against attacking Union forces resulted in disproportionately heavy costs for the Union side. When that was reversed and Confederates attacked Union forces at Gettysburg, it was the Confederates who took unsustainable losses. Thus, there are good military reasons at this stage for Russia not to take the initiative and instead to let the Zelensky forces waste themselves attacking prepared Russian defenses. As always, time will tell.
As for infighting within the Russian military brass, it would be an unusual bureaucracy which was free of that sort of wastefulness. But read Hanson’s “Second World Wars”. The Allies (including the USSR) did not win because of better teamwork at the leadership level, or superior generalship, or better soldiers. The Allies simply out-resourced, out-produced, out-numbered the Axis Powers. That ought to make Zelensky feel uncomfortable.
Thanks for the introduction to another clear thinker, very encouraging to see the word getting around and people with insight going public.
During the discussion I was thinking about Russia’s statement of mid December, 2021 – Nato must roll back infrastructure, troops and weapons to Nato borders as of 1997, and no more Nato expansion, this was non-negotiable and if not, Russia would achieve it by “other” means. The West (US) responded by stealing $600 billion of Russia’s wealth, deploying beaucoup weapons into Ukraine, including depleted uranium and longer range weapons, sending more troops into Romania / Poland, expanding Nato to include Finland, etc. , by bombing NS2 and NS1 of all things, and continues to escallate. Russia is busy dealing with the immediate problem, SMO, but I suspect their demands still hold and they will pursue them.
Are we near a crisis? I suspect so, but don’t take my word for it. When the SMO is resolved, or before, I think we’ll hear more about those demands one way or another.
Larry you need a better Internet Connection….if you started to appear at many shows bow and you really need to get a new Internet …the one you have is ,, absolute“
Notes:
Examine the phases of the SMO and the players that appeared in the TG posts and vids in each phase. You need different tactics, playrrs, leaders suited to each phase.
Notice how the quarterbacks and benches rotate through depending on the game dynamics and clock time.
It looks like the 3rd quarter to me, and Pri and Wagner have done their job of draining NATO & proxy of ideas, depth, men, and material. They pulled the fight into a tight focus that sucked all the air out of the room.
Meanwhile, the bulk of the expanded RU force has had 6 months+ to train, congeal, supply up, deploy, and prep for the 4th quarter.
Time for Wagner to rotate out/rest/reconstitute, time to bring in the unseen depths of the playbook for some blitzes and Hail Mary’s.
But its never a good idea to broadcast any of your play book to the enemy. You do stutter steps and head fakes to keep them off balance…and melodrama akways does the job when information is scarce and emotions are high.
By the way, that Pri rant shot of body bags could have easily been the some of the 100’s of Ukies that get pulled out if the rubble and sent back by RU troops each day. When making movies, you always need extras.
Notes:
Examine the phases of the SMO and the players that appeared in the TG posts and vids in each phase. You need different tactics, players, leaders suited to each phase.
Notice how the quarterbacks and benches rotate through depending on the game dynamics and clock time.
It looks like the 3rd quarter to me, and Pri and Wagner have done their job of draining NATO & proxy of ideas, depth, men, and material. They pulled the fight into a tight focus that sucked all the air out of the room.
Meanwhile, the bulk of the expanded RU force has had 6 months+ to train, congeal, supply up, deploy, and prep for the 4th quarter.
Time for Wagner to rotate out/rest/reconstitute, time to bring in the unseen depths of the playbook for some blitzes and Hail Mary’s.
But its never a good idea to broadcast any of your play book to the enemy. You do stutter steps and head fakes to keep them off balance…and melodrama always does the job when information is scarce and emotions are high.
By the way, that Pri rant shot of body bags could have easily been the some of the 100’s of Ukies that get pulled out if the rubble and sent back by RU troops each day. When making movies, you always need extras.
By the way, as a somewhat unrelated matter, Donald Trump murdered CNN and its pompous and out of her depth moderator last night.
When asked about the war, Trump said he would stop it immediately. When the moderator pressed him on which side he wanted to win, he had a mic drop moment. In the clearest and simplest, yet most statesmanlike answer any American public figure has given in two years he said, “I just want people to quit dying.” There you have it. That is the only response or a sane person and should be the goal of every serious person.
All politics are local. This includes RU/UKR. Relations…related….
Bury my heart at wounded knee.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJnwUbJoheo
NB: Larry’s interview begins at 58min.
Has anyone seen the video from 2-days ago from Yevgeny Prigozhin surrounded by the dead bodies of his Wagner fighters and saying “Shoigu, Gerasimov, where … is the ammunition? We are lacking 70% of the needed ammunition! The blood is still fresh. They came here as volunteers and are dying so you can sit like fat cats in your luxury offices.” Now in his latest video, Prigozhin says “I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the Defense Ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds. I’m withdrawing Wagner PMC units because without ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death”. What is going on??? Why isn’t the MOD supporting the Wagner PMC? Is it all just an internal power struggle? And where is Putin? Why isn’t he doing anything?
Dead soldiers on the final assault of a months long urban warfare where enemies are covering a retreat with all the fire they have left on a smaller and smaller space are to be expected. Everyone seems to be firing more those days anyway.
What Prigozhin did was giving a few more days of hope to the kakhols … his usual “don’t stop war” scheme. The “I am once again asking for your ammo support” is a CEO ” two birds , one stone” move : he wanna keep his raw materials available (AFU bodies to slaughter) and wanna look as the paternal boss wanting to preserve his workforce (Wagner).
He can do it the way he does cause for him it won’t be military insubordination and it won’t be taken lightly by ukrop side … despite his now long history with maskirovka. The guy is the mercenarism Elon Musk : will he buy Telegram after the SMO ?
I haven’t seen this part:
“I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the Defense Ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds. I’m withdrawing Wagner PMC units because without ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death”
In any case, who knows, maybe they are baiting UKR forces to attack there, or maybe situation really isn’t ideal ( Simplicitus wrote that UKR have likely greatly increased artillery fire in that region), maybe RU MOD wants to employ some new tactics with their best units, but need a reason why Wagner’s are withdrawing, in any case, who knows…
“What is going on?”
Probably encouraging Zelensky to send more men into the meat grinder.
“And where is Putin? Why isn’t he doing anything?”
Drone strike messed up his WiFi, and he has problems getting advice from armchair generals on Telegram. He was last seen in a local cafe asking for a password, and complaining that he has to order something in order to get it.
Someone certainly did drop the ball on that issue. I’m sure Prigozhin did talk to whoever is in charge and apparently since nothing happened to improve the situation, he simply had no better way as to expose this to the public. Putin is not in charge of the SMO. Someone’s head will be rolling for that, if it is true that nothing was done to resolve that situation. We will see. But his decision to hand over the positions to the RU army and withdraw his forces seems rather to be a logical conclusion of his.
Maybe this is a planed distraction to focus the AFU efforts to retake Artemovsk, rather than to stike somewhere else. A classic trap so to speak.
Prigozhin is a strange person. One never knows whether he is trolling the CW or whether he is telling the truth. Personally, I think that he is on uppers and when he is down comes out with stuff like this. He has an inflated concept of his importance and gives little credit to the RF forces.
It is a weird way of doing it but I saw the video, read opinions, and wonder if he just BS ing, also called gaslighting.
Milley and Austin look dignified but that is exactly what they do.
In that Soledar caves weapons cache video he behaved like a real boss. You can call it ‘mafia boss’ or Patton-like boss’, it’s basically the same anyway. Alpha-type with an adrenaline kicker.
He’s also a prima donna, not unlike Patton or John Gotti.
Them’s the shakes in games of such high stakes.
My first thought is that there is likely some reason, either external or internal, regarding why he is “permitted” to do this. In the West, folks that go against the narrative have their “wings clipped”, for example Mark Milley said in Nov, 22 to the NYT: “Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in, and so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table…” Then walked that back a few days later.
It is hard for me to believe that in the middle of an existential SMO, that Prigozhin, a smart man, would be allowed to loose cannon like this. Historically, the Russians put a lot of work into Maskirovka, so I think we will have to wait and see.
My second thought is that the Russians have a long, complex and stealthy supply lines that have to be constantly reconfigured due to the weather, mud and NATO satellite reconnaissance. One can’t build up a huge ammunition dump behind the lines, like in the old days, as one Himar could take it out. It is likely the ammunition is distributed over a wide area and complexities (rainy days, lack of cloud cover, need to move at night, destroyed roads and bridges) may occasionally starve units of supplies.
My third thought is that the Russians are stockpiling ammunition. If you look at history, it took the Allies well over a year to stockpile enough troops and supplies for a cross-channel invasion (D-Day) and it took the US about 6 months to prepare for Desert Storm. Russia never went through this build-up phase, as the SMO was launched with a minimum of force, due the need for surprise. In the age of satellites, they could not have massed the majority of the Russian army on the Ukrainian border, without being detected. Had NATO been aware of that, they could have declared a pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops, daring the Russians to cross a huge red line. There is no way around this type of build-up phase, so possibly they are strategically allocating resources, causing the Wagner PMC problems. (Remember, Eisenhower & Bradley starved Patton of gasoline ( “with 400,000 gallons of gasoline he could be in Germany within two days”) for Operation Market Garden. Even the eventual winners don’t have inexhaustible supplies of ammunition and gasoline.
All in IMHO
And my 4th observation is that the SMO started out as an “Allied” operation, between the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics, Russia, Chechen volunteers, Wagner PMC, etc… so Prigozhin still maybe operating with that structure / mentality in mind ??? So, what we might be seeing is a squabble not un0-similar to that between the Allies in World War II (Britain, USA, USSR, France, Poland…).
Sorry Rokossovsky, this simply does not adjust with reality:
“In the age of satellites, they could not have massed the majority of the Russian army on the Ukrainian border, without being detected. Had NATO been aware of that, they could have declared a pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops, daring the Russians to cross a huge red line. ”
It happened exactly like that: the Russians massed a big army at the border.
USA spent weeks telling that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. What happened? Simply that nobody believes what a liar says. Not even the Ukrainians believed it. Even more, they said (I heard that in Spain, I promise), that US should stop spreading that, because that was alarming investors, and the situation in Ukraine was worsening …
What you say also about NATO “pre-emptory no-fly zone over Ukraine or even introduced NATO allied troops” …
Well, it simply makes again not sense (it is a consequence of what you say right before, which as I say it makes no sense).
– that would mean immediately a direct war with Russia (is there any reader of this blog that disagrees with this?). Much different than a proxy war. The US have no problem with a lot of Ukrainians fighting for democracy (and blablá blablá), but .. ey, do you think that they are crazy to a direct war, where they could die in thousands? They are bad, but not that crazy. They prefer others to die.
So, this part of your message, I totally disagree. (The first two “thoughts” are very insightful in my opinion).
Best regards.
This is 90 minutes but worth it. Mark talks about Prigozhin…it’s a game he plays, in his opinion…psyops..,I had not connected that the Wagner Group has a specialty if urban warfare..
His Substack mailing list is free, as he explains at the end. No way to pay.
If you’re referring to Mark Sleboda’s comments on The New Atlas, I’m not sure I’d agree with him. Something beyond infowar games is going on.
Kadyrov was not alone in being deeply disturbed by Prigozhin’s egregious attacks on Shoigu, Gerasimov and the Russian Army rank & file, but especially by the images he published of Wagner KIAs. However, Kadyrov also indirectly acknowledged that Prigozhin has a case:
” I really hope that Sergei Kuzhugetovich [Shoigu] will listen to my call and an order will be given to the General Staff to go to the place and sort things out.”
On the assumption that Prigozhin hasn’t simply gone mad and/or succumbed to delusions of grandeur, one is still hard pressed to believe that the content and context of his recent outbursts in words and videos were intended to serve some ulterior purpose in Russia’s “master plan”.
Two possibilities stand out:
– that there are egregious problems within the military command structure and/or MoD that are impacting the war effort adversely. Kadyrov himself voiced his displeasure early in the war, and there’s been talk that the absence of his Chechens in recent months is related to that.
– that, if Prigozhin is not punished for his outbursts he enjoys the protection of (and perhaps speaks for) very powerful persons within the Kremlin who are likewise displeased. Perhaps persons on the National Security Council, and/or perhaps Putin himself are using Prigozhin to send a message. In his statement, Kadyrov is pained to note that Prigozhin’s insults have been met by silence from the MoD. To my mind, that suggests that they know Prigozhin’s complaints have merit, and that he’s speaking for someone above them.
Having said that, P may indeed have allowed emotion to overrun his political judgement. This is no time for a public cat fight, let alone so direct and vicious a public insult of the entire armed services.
Ukraine is but a mattine, HMS TERROR, even if Putin were to take the whole country it would solve nothing, NATO now surrounds Russia more than before, what Putin wants and needs is to face NATO (read the Americans), he doesn’t have to win the confrontation, nobody can win it, all he has to demonstrate is that the Americans in spite of their might cannot break or even subdue Russia.
If Russia could/wanted to take the whole Ukraine, they could also install rockets even closer to Berlin, Paris ..
(Not that they need it, having Kaliningrad .. but do the US need Ukraine in the NATO? And imagine what would mean for citizens in Berlin, to know that Russia could have missiles in Lvob -they got used to Kaliningrad. They should get used also to that .. would they? )
“NATO now surrounds Russia more than before”
I remember a joke famous in Spain some years ago. About an US general in Vietnam (so, many many years ago :)))
A captain informed him “Sire, we have enemies to the North, we have enemies to the South, to the West, and to the East. We are surrounded!”.
“Great, they cannot escape now from us!”
I think like that crazy general: now even Finland and Sweden could not escape from Russia …
It’s pure and undiluted rivalry, Ron, and an element of storing the ammo for the expected Ukrainian push later this month.
The Wagner musicians have been praised in Russia, have no problem with hiring, have a sizeable foreign participation, mostly from NATO countries, mostly NATO trained men. This more than bothers Shoigu, he isn’t very popular, it’s only his closeness to Putin that keeps him in the function, many believe he’s useless.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27498/4758570/
From Diplomacy to Killing Zelensky: Five Possible Russian Responses to Attacks on the Kremlin
Dmitry Peskov said that there would be a response to Ukrainian drone strikes on the Kremlin. And it will become “thoughtful, balanced and in line with the interests of our country”
Komsomolskaya Pravda, together with the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, a member of the Public Chamber and the host of Radio KP, Nikita Danyuk, analyzed possible scenarios.
1. A dagger strike against Bankovaya and the liquidation of the entire elite of Ukraine, including Zelensky.
– It is unlikely that this will happen, no matter how much a significant part of Russian society would like it. The strike with “Daggers”, and even more so with the liquidation of Zelensky, in my opinion, is not currently being considered. The Ukrainian conflict is part of a global puzzle. Let’s not forget about Zelensky’s recent conversation with Xi Jinping. So this does not look like the logic of the Russian authorities in the context of a special operation.
2. A strike on Bankova, when Zelensky is not there, not only the president’s office, but almost the entire government quarter will be completely destroyed.
– But such an action of intimidation, a show of force – is possible. Just as a blow to the Kremlin is symbolic, so the response to Bankovaya, to geographic and material decision-making centers, can be symbolic.
But the calculation of the Russian leadership is always not emotional, but cold, strategic. Therefore, they are unlikely to spend “Daggers” solely on a demonstration of strength.
3. Target elimination of the organizers of this raid and other sabotage. We are talking about the head of the main intelligence department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov, the head of the SBU Maliuk, and so on.
– A very likely scenario. We know that it is the GUR that is behind many terrorist acts and sabotage on the territory of our country. Moreover, Budanov has the courage to declare his plans publicly, in the press.
How can I do that? Give the GUR the status of a terrorist organization, like ISIS banned in Russia. Then the hands will be untied.
In addition, it will send a signal to the West that we do not intend to ignore such tools.
4. An exclusively diplomatic response: to raise the issue of recognizing Ukraine as a terrorist state both within Russia and in the international arena. Russia will try to demonstrate to the world that the Ukrainian authorities are inadequate and that one cannot do business with them.
– This scenario will not meet the expectations of a significant part of Russian society.
Let’s face it: the recognition of Ukraine as a terrorist country at the UN level is impossible. Recognition of its leadership as terrorists, even within Russia, is also not visible. But if the alignment of forces changes significantly in our favor, then such an instrument is possible.
5. The use of tactical nuclear weapons.
– This should not be considered as a real scenario at all. In my opinion, the use of nuclear weapons is possible only if Russia is on the verge of destruction.
Coverage in the West of politics in Russia is next to nil, including the so called alt media. Language is part of the problem, but so is the complexity of internal Russian intrigues that pits fifth columnists against the “6th columnists” (nationalists critical of Putin), current and ex-oligarchs, plus globalists and westernized Russians for as far as you care to look. For a glimpse of the complexity and the alt media silence on the subject:
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/alexander-mercouris-really-doesnt?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=795903&post_id=119195373&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
Yes, I am a big fan of the Duran and of our well-intentioned host here. But there are many moving parts in Russia that are NOT discussed.
Why?
There is no Western discussion of politics in Russia because any such discussion detracts from the party line that Russia is an autocracy and Putin is its Stalin, full stop.
True for the main stream media. But why the “alt” brigade? They will glancingly discuss, but there are many story lines in Russia that are ignored, particularly from the nationalist ant-globalist POV.
In other news, Zelensky got a Czech gun that could also be a Chekhov’s gun.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/60520
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chekhov%27s_gun
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/Zelensky-says-he-got-a-gun-and-he's-not-afraid-to-use-it:a
Why Wagner as a name? A former zek himself, could this lead to a Spartacus rebellion?MH-17 had similar fuselage colors as the Russian presidential aircraft, which was returning from Sao Paolo/BRIC conference. This is a SERVITO FREDDO experience-maybe a hit on Victor Pinchuk in Canada or Gusinsky in Tel HALEVI:) Don’t forget MUSA AL SADR(think Billy Beer).
Wagner music is kind of martial sometimes , remember the Woody Hallen quote ; “Everytime I listen Wagner , I fell like invading Poland”.
Still , a better name than “academi” , everytime I hear about academi , I think I’m back in school :).
Nato could have *never ever* installed a no-fly-zone over Ukraine. On what grounds shoud they have done it? Once Russia got into Ukraine to protect their new territories, there was maybe some way to explain such a move. But I don’t see any chance they could have done it ahead of the SMO. Nato wants in no way be involved. They can’t state that enough.
Nonetheless, Nato is utter impotent and they know it too, so all they can do is act independently by supporting Ukraine with weapons like they do now and tell everyone that they are in no way part of that conflict as anyone already knows that they are. They do it for legal reasons which is stupid anyway. Everything else they say is only PR BS to delude their own population that somehow everything is peachy contrary to reality. Nato is finished. They are useless and will fall apart as soon as someone does really cross a red line. Nato is mostly talk and zero action against real armies. Going after China is proof enough that those bubbleheads in Nato live in a totally different world and can’t really be taken seriously.
mr. johnson- yu are on zerohedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/former-cia-officer-says-decision-drone-attack-kremlin-was-made-united-states
mr. johnson- i wonder what your thoughts are on what is going on here behind the scenes. when i look at history bureaucratic infighting can screw up the conduct of any war.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-says-his-forces-exit-bakhmut-may-10-military-leaders-sit-fat-cats
regards,
ralph
Considering how MacGregor, Ritter, Mercouris, and you have been wrong in predicting (many times now) that the war is about to be won by Russia; and yet it is still going on — is it not time for you guys to re-assess your analysis? How about considering the arguments Rolo Slavskiy has been making for months, that there are deep divisions within Russia, that Russia is bogged down in a war it never planned carefully, that a lot more Russians have died than you guys estimate? I am not saying I agree with him, but in light of recent events and in light of the fact that the predictions you guys made have not been actualized, it is time for a serious debate with alternative views such as the one by Slavskiy https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/alexander-mercouris-really-doesnt
The war is no longer with Ukraine, Rick, it has morphed into a war with NATO, the intelligence, the recognisance, the running of the drones, virtually everything except for the men at the front is all NATO, the funding the US, the Ukrainians are only the cannon fodder. The war would have been over in spite of all the inefficiencies, red tape, drunkenness, the envy of Wagner musicians and stuff in the Russian Armed Forces if it were just the Ukrainian intelligence and hardware.
The final objective remains a defeat of Russia, as another blogger here says ‘the uber-hawk Lindsay Graham made it clear some time ago: Spent on Vietnam — $1 Trillion; Spent on Afghanistan — $2 Trillion ; Earmarked for destroying Russia over the next 10 years — $6 Trillion. His closing quote: “And that $6 Trillion sounds like good value for money to me”. That’s what Russia faces, not Ukraine.
No real need for re-assessing yet, lets just wait a bit more and see how UKR offensive plays out, then things could maybe be re-assessed.
It is undeniable that UKR have lost ton of equipment and men, you only need to listen to what they and west themselves are saying like:
1 / Zaluzni said that he needs 300 tanks (and bla bla bla more) to conduct offensive. If you listen to UKR side, it is known that they had something like 1000 tanks at the start, it is also known that they have received more then 500 tanks before this latest batch, and if you listen to their own words, they have captured some 500 of RU tanks, so tell me, if they have 2.000 tanks and the did not lose any, what would 300 more do? If they have lost 2.000 tanks and receive 300 more, what do they expect to achieve with less then 15-20% of what they actually already had?
2 / If they have no loses, why did they go through 8 or who knows how many rounds of mobilization? If they have no loses, why do their own commanders and supporters complain that experienced soldiers are gone and that they are mostly handling inexperienced onese now?
3 / Even if you take western figures and say that RU have lost twice amount of UKR soldiers, RU is some 4-6 times larger country so even if that is the case, how is it losing?
4 / Ignore everything I wrote in first 3 steps if you want, you still have to realize that many big world players behave like RU is about to win, especially countries like CHN, IND, TURKEY, SAUD ARABIA, etc.
Do you really think they would dare to openly oppose West if they thought that RU is about to lose?
Do you think that those big and powerful countries don’t know what is really going on on multiple levels, and who do you think knows it if not them?
It all just obviously makes no sense what so ever.
What is causing everyone to doubt is that RU is going very slow to reduce casualties (and for other political and geo-political purposes), while West propaganda machinery is in the overdrive, therefore, just strap on for the longer then expected fight, and will see how it all plays out in the end.
What a great comment.
Thanks a lot.
When did any of them predict an outcome given certain conditions and it being inferred or understood to be self-evident that if said conditions didn’t materialize the prediction was invalid?
E.G: MacGregor and a winter offensive on frozen ground.
Gonzalo Lira has been captured by Ukraine and faces at least 4 years in prison, as reported by Military Summary.
Most likely translation of Prigozhin’s outburst: “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch”. Time will tell.
As for Col. McGregor’s admittedly erroneous serial predictions of a forthcoming massive Russia assault — let’s not forget that General Winter failed to show up this year, whereas Corporal Rain has come & stayed. In the meantime, the military situation has changed, with the Zelensky regime committing to an assault.
Go back and look at the US Civil War. Many battles which featured Confederates defending against attacking Union forces resulted in disproportionately heavy costs for the Union side. When that was reversed and Confederates attacked Union forces at Gettysburg, it was the Confederates who took unsustainable losses. Thus, there are good military reasons at this stage for Russia not to take the initiative and instead to let the Zelensky forces waste themselves attacking prepared Russian defenses. As always, time will tell.
As for infighting within the Russian military brass, it would be an unusual bureaucracy which was free of that sort of wastefulness. But read Hanson’s “Second World Wars”. The Allies (including the USSR) did not win because of better teamwork at the leadership level, or superior generalship, or better soldiers. The Allies simply out-resourced, out-produced, out-numbered the Axis Powers. That ought to make Zelensky feel uncomfortable.
Thanks for the introduction to another clear thinker, very encouraging to see the word getting around and people with insight going public.
During the discussion I was thinking about Russia’s statement of mid December, 2021 – Nato must roll back infrastructure, troops and weapons to Nato borders as of 1997, and no more Nato expansion, this was non-negotiable and if not, Russia would achieve it by “other” means. The West (US) responded by stealing $600 billion of Russia’s wealth, deploying beaucoup weapons into Ukraine, including depleted uranium and longer range weapons, sending more troops into Romania / Poland, expanding Nato to include Finland, etc. , by bombing NS2 and NS1 of all things, and continues to escallate. Russia is busy dealing with the immediate problem, SMO, but I suspect their demands still hold and they will pursue them.
Are we near a crisis? I suspect so, but don’t take my word for it. When the SMO is resolved, or before, I think we’ll hear more about those demands one way or another.
Searched it on Yahoo News (The New Voice of Ukraine).
Also saw this little yahoo gem:
Read also: Retired SBU major general says ‘third parties’ might have been behind alleged drone attack on Kremlin
Ah, the ‘third party’ again. Sort of like ‘The Third Man’ flick. Boy, they sure do keep busy.
Larry you need a better Internet Connection….if you started to appear at many shows bow and you really need to get a new Internet …the one you have is ,, absolute“
Notes:
Examine the phases of the SMO and the players that appeared in the TG posts and vids in each phase. You need different tactics, playrrs, leaders suited to each phase.
Notice how the quarterbacks and benches rotate through depending on the game dynamics and clock time.
It looks like the 3rd quarter to me, and Pri and Wagner have done their job of draining NATO & proxy of ideas, depth, men, and material. They pulled the fight into a tight focus that sucked all the air out of the room.
Meanwhile, the bulk of the expanded RU force has had 6 months+ to train, congeal, supply up, deploy, and prep for the 4th quarter.
Time for Wagner to rotate out/rest/reconstitute, time to bring in the unseen depths of the playbook for some blitzes and Hail Mary’s.
But its never a good idea to broadcast any of your play book to the enemy. You do stutter steps and head fakes to keep them off balance…and melodrama akways does the job when information is scarce and emotions are high.
By the way, that Pri rant shot of body bags could have easily been the some of the 100’s of Ukies that get pulled out if the rubble and sent back by RU troops each day. When making movies, you always need extras.
Notes:
Examine the phases of the SMO and the players that appeared in the TG posts and vids in each phase. You need different tactics, players, leaders suited to each phase.
Notice how the quarterbacks and benches rotate through depending on the game dynamics and clock time.
It looks like the 3rd quarter to me, and Pri and Wagner have done their job of draining NATO & proxy of ideas, depth, men, and material. They pulled the fight into a tight focus that sucked all the air out of the room.
Meanwhile, the bulk of the expanded RU force has had 6 months+ to train, congeal, supply up, deploy, and prep for the 4th quarter.
Time for Wagner to rotate out/rest/reconstitute, time to bring in the unseen depths of the playbook for some blitzes and Hail Mary’s.
But its never a good idea to broadcast any of your play book to the enemy. You do stutter steps and head fakes to keep them off balance…and melodrama always does the job when information is scarce and emotions are high.
By the way, that Pri rant shot of body bags could have easily been the some of the 100’s of Ukies that get pulled out if the rubble and sent back by RU troops each day. When making movies, you always need extras.
I loved when Mr. Johnson called Mr. (Sayyd) Muhammad “brother”!
By the way, as a somewhat unrelated matter, Donald Trump murdered CNN and its pompous and out of her depth moderator last night.
When asked about the war, Trump said he would stop it immediately. When the moderator pressed him on which side he wanted to win, he had a mic drop moment. In the clearest and simplest, yet most statesmanlike answer any American public figure has given in two years he said, “I just want people to quit dying.” There you have it. That is the only response or a sane person and should be the goal of every serious person.