A chat with the Judge is stimulating and thought provoking, and today was no exception. One of the topics explored is what I call, “Russia’s Cuban Missile Crisis.” In 2016 the United States deployed a land based air defense system — i.e. Aegis Ashore — in Deveselu, Romania. Aegis Ashorek is a land-based version of the missile system now on Aegis cruisers in the U.S. Navy. Then, last year, the United States set up the same system in Redzikowo, Poland. Only one little problem — the Aegis Ashore system can also be used to launch nuclear tipped Tomahawk Cruise missiles.
These two systems have the potential to put a nuke in Moscow within 10 minutes of launch from Poland or Romania. See the problem? This threat situation is similar to the one the United States faced in 1961 when the Soviets deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba. Just as the United States correctly viewed those missiles in Cuba as an existential threat, Russia also sees that U.S. placement of missiles as an existential threat to Moscow.
Ray McGovern, in a recent speech to a peace group in New England, does a masterful job of describing how the missile launchers in Poland and Romania are a critical predicate for Russia’s Special Military Operation (aka SMO) in Ukraine. Without those missiles looming large in the strategic picture, Russia probably would not have gone into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. When Putin speaks of “de-militarization” as one of the primary objectives of the SMO, he is not just talking about eliminating the threat in Ukraine. I believe that Russia views those missile launchers in Poland and Romania as part of the de-militarization effort.
Ukraine is working hard to put a brave, heroic face on a bad situation. While the battle over Bakhmut continues to dominate the attention of Western pundits and politicians, the war in Ukraine is raging in other locations, including Zaporozhye, Maryinka, Avdyevka, Petrovskoye and dozens of other cities and hamlets. Russia has ample supplies of men, tanks and ammunition. Ukraine does not. Russia is choosing to fight a war of attrition rather than large scale maneuver. I realize this is frustrating for those arm-chair generals longing for a General Patton to break out of hedge row country and go scampering across France. Apart from the whining complaints from Prigozhin, there is no sign of panic, fear or frustration on the Russian side. The essential question remains — how long can Ukraine hold out?
Thank you for honest information on Ukraine that keeps us informed.
Find it incredible that Russian forces still can’t drive out and defeat Ukrops there in Bahkmut.The Russian army is really overrated.
No hurry for Russia to wrap things up in Bakhmut. It’s been a useful place to annihilate countless Ukrainian troops (just as Russian strategists intended it to be). As someone said already, it’s been ‘the gift that keeps on giving’ (tragically for the Ukrainian forces).
USA would do it in three days, as usual. And then lose the war, as usual. It’s almost like you should not measure them with US measurements, and not just because they use metric.
I guess so is NATO’s largest standing proxy army.
Actually, I’d say it speaks to how well soviet era weapons performed, since until recently Ukraine was one of the best equipped soviet era armies in existence.
Then again, it’s that staging from apartment buildings, schools and hospitals thing the ukrops do so well. Good thing they weren’t up against US unhindered airpower, since they don’t seem much bothered by such habits.
Depends on what one is trying to do with such a policy.
There is a bit of a blackout on the ground war and Ukrainian “counter-offensive”. Waiting to see if front lines move in the SW area of the front
Larry,
With the greatest of respect I must ask you one question…
Why, like just about everyone American that has gone before do you not acknowledge that it was the USA that precipitated the Cuban Missile Crisis by deploying Jupiter medium range ballistic missiles into northern Turkey on the Russian Border in 1961?
Quite legitimately the Russian response then, as it is today, was to forward base its own nuclear response in the form of the R12 & R14 medium range ballistic missiles into Cuba in 1962.
But of course back then, as now this did not suit the lying, cheating duopoly that is US Foreign Policy & the US MIC.
Thus the US State Department in concert with the MIC & a willing media created a crisis of global proportions laying the entire blame at the feet of Castro & Khrushchev & Russia.
Why do you Americans always reference the “Cuban Missile Crisis”
but singularly fail to recognise its significance as a false flag event?
From a retired E8 Door Kicker.
I don’t recall saying that the U.S. did NOT precipitate the crisis. Clearly the U.S. deployment of missiles in Turkey created a threat to Russia that Russia understandably wanted to counter.
Per Terram – With respect to the wording “you do not acknowledge” – to be fair I do not think Larry was in any way intentionally “not acknowledging” the more detailed history.
Larry was simply comparing the similarity of USSR placing missiles in Cuba which caused such outrage in America and the West as being analogous to current dynamics of America placing nuclear capable missiles in nations bordering Russia. The fine technicalities otherwise pertaining to the history no doubt never entered his mind as being in any way pertinent to the point he was trying get across.
And lest we not forget that unbeknownst to Washington, tactical nukes on Cuba’s shores were staged and ready for launch at the local commander level on any attempted sea invasion, which was exactly what JFK, in apparent God-given common sense, resisted doing but what pushed to the hilt to do.
How many times are we going to skirt armageddon? I’m starting to feel like my chances at rolling snake eyes might be better.
Yes Per Terram it was the Americans placing nuclear missiles in Turkey pointing at USSR/Russia that prompted USSR to even up the ‘Mutually Assured Destruction’ balance by placing missiles in Cuba. It rarely ever gets mentioned and very few people in the West know about it as a result.
In this excellent article authored by Dmitri Orlov and published on The Saker the first reads as follows:
The Cuban Missile Crisis is a malicious misnomer. Cuba never had any nuclear missiles; it temporarily played host to some Soviet ones. The crisis started when Americans put their intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Turkey that posed a new threat the Soviet Union, which responded by placing similar missiles in Cuba, evening the score. The Americans flew into a rage but eventually calmed down and withdrew their missiles from Turkey. The Soviets withdrew their missiles from Cuba and the crisis was over. And so it should be called the American Missile Crisis.
Refer:
The New Cuban Missile Crisis That Isn’t
02 November 2022
https://thesaker.is/the-new-cuban-missile-crisis-that-isnt/
What gets mentioned even less about the Turkey / Cuban history is how when Kennedy negotiated with Khrushchev to have USSR remove missiles from Cuba in exchange for America removing their nuclear missiles from Turkey, Kennedy got Khrushchev to promise that Khrushchev / USSR would not make any public mention of the fact that America had placed missiles in Turkey and that America would remove them in quid pro quo deal. So back then Kennedy was very concerned about how the PR of what went down would be spun to the world. Kennedy was very concerned that it should not look like a deal between equals had been agreed but that America looked like it had faced down the USSR and that America was the much stronger opponent to be more feared. Khrushchev agreed being only too happy with the result of getting America to remove the missiles from Turkey. So the USSR play of placing missiles in Cuba was actually a much bigger victory for USSR than people realize. And yes the fact does shine a whole different light on that history.
There were more missiles, Jupiter in Italy, Thor in England. that also were removed at the same time. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Emily.
Around that time I subscribed to a now defunct magazine RAF Flying Review to improve my poor performance learning English in school. In 1959 or ´60 it published an article about a visit by one of its journalists to a Thor base in East Anglia. He saw a Thor being erected and fueled and then the commanding officer, USAF, took a key out of his pocket, said this is the American key, but it in its slot and turned it. He then took another key out of his pocket, said this is the British key, inserted it and turned it and said – now it can be launched. He then turned the keys again and put them in his pocket. The missile was defueled and returned to storage.
I don’t know if this clarifies things, but Khrushchev said in his autobiography that it was the “Bay of Pigs” and the threat of another Kennedy Invasion of Cuba that was the impetus of the missile deployment in Cuba. He did not expect the reaction he got from the American side because the USSR had tolerated the Jupiter Missiles in Turkey. He simply thought the missiles would deter another invasion of Cuba. In Khrushchev’s first letter/communication to Kennedy he stated that he would withdraw the missiles from Cuba if Kennedy would pledged that the United States would not invade Cuba. However, many hardliners in the USSR thought that was not enough and they demanded that he include a quid-pro-quo that the United States would withdraw the Jupiter missiles in Turkey in exchange for the withdrawal of the missiles in Cuba. This was the impetus for the second letter/communication from Khrushchev which caused Kennedy great discomfort. Kennedy could not withdraw the Jupiters publicly, due to the politics and would deny it if asked about it, but secretly he agreed to the withdrawal six months hence. Thus, Kennedy publicly announced the withdrawal of the Soviet missiles in exchange for a “no-invasion pledge”, with the secret proviso that the Jupiters would be withdrawn in the future, without linking the withdrawal to the “Cuban Missile Crisis”. As the source is Khrushchev, one can take it or leave it in terms of the account’s veracity. I am just providing it for general interest.
The US missiles in Turkiye were replaced shortly after with upgraded versions; there may still be at least 50 US nuclear weapons at Incirlik air base, (unless they’ve already been withdrawn, as it seems Turkiye are finally getting fed up with the US’s racket) and it only takes one of them going off to ruin the entire day.
Nukes in Incirlik Air Base (and in European air bases) are bombs not missiles.
It was Castro that was the premier party lobbying for nukes after the Bay of Pigs, as I remember it. The soviets just said ‘well, Turkey….. hmmm? Opportunity knocking? Why not then?’
With the greatest of respects I must raise a correction request …
As written:
“… the Aegis Ashore system can also be used to launch nuclear tipped Tomahawk Cruise missiles.
These two systems have the potential to put a nuke in Moscow within 10 minutes of launch from Poland or Romania. See the problem?”
Well, I do see another problem:
(a) Aegis in Poland and Romania are more than 1Mm (620 s-miles) from Moscow
(b) Tomahawk can’t fly faster than some 920km/h (570 s-miles per hour)
a + b => time to reach Moscow is MORE THAN 60min (one hour)
BTW:
IMHO, those 10 minutes to target (DC) were possible for the R-12 Dvina from Cuba…
Cheers, JaKo
I’m basing that number on Ray McGovern’s post, written in consultation with Ted Postol who is an expert on such matters.
LJ
Experts can make mistakes, and have no problems with being corrected.
Larry is right and the proof is so many people here trying to disprove the experts! We are talking about the old Wolfwitz doctrine, the great disciple of Leo Strauss, to surround Russia with missiles in the Black Sea. The lake that NATO always wanted. According to the Straussian neocon doctrine, which says that the US cannot allow any competing power to arise. The missiles were deployed after the US tore up the ABM and INF treaties, with the blatant lie that they served as defenses for Iranian nuclear missiles!? Ray McGovern’s explanation at the beginning of this video couldn’t be more informative:
If the Missile Fits, Beware – Ray McGovern on US missile site in Romania and Poland:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUuVOzE-sRY
That as Larry says very well, Putin demanded the withdrawal of missiles in December 2021. In a new European security architecture. After Biden himself promised that they would never deploy offensive missiles in Poland and Romania. That Russia has no way of verifying. When they already prepared to install missiles in Kiev. Russia also has intelligence. Biden is a compulsive liar, corrupt and cowardly who even today senile likes to brag about the idea of bombing Yugoslavia in absentia of the UN!
And I, as a European, would like to add that missiles do not only threaten Russia but the whole of Europe and the whole world due to the nuclear war they can trigger! And I am very grateful to Russia for fighting for its withdrawal. As the US would never accept it at its border as we know from the Cuban missile crisis. Also a reaction and not a provocation by Russia to the US missiles in Turkey!
And quite honestly at the end of the day what difference does it make if it takes 10 minutes or 1 hour? If Russia hadn’t been calm in the 1980s, we would all have disappeared because of a US exercise with much slower missiles! Missiles must be withdrawn from Europe! Like US nuclear warheads should have been withdrawn at the end of the Warsaw Pact. Which is just one more proof that the US never thought to stop harassing Moscow. It was always on the minds of many people in Washington to continue the war with Moscow until Russia’s capitulation! As with this Ukraine proxy war to cut the EU off of Russia and overthrow Putin.
For the US to bleed Russia’s resources back to London and NY as in the 90’s with Yeltsin. Controlling Eurasia and setting Central Asia on fire so China doesn’t overtake the US in Biden’s shift! Someone should told him that China have already passed! And the irony is that after the Munich Security Conference in 2007, where Putin criticizes the Iraq war and says that Russia does not accept being a vassal of a Unipolar Order with the Sheriff in Washington, Putin traveled to the Bundestag where he presented a new European security architecture with an alliance very similar to NATO that contemplated the security concerns of all European countries like Russia, without missiles aimed at neighbors in peacetime. And it received a standing ovation from all German political parties at the time. Unfortunately today Germany is a completely taken over country who would never have said no to the US about the Iraq war either!
It’s not about “geopolitical math”, but about regular one. Those missiles are a threat regardless of their flight time. Revising calculations does not change conclusion, and leaving wrong numbers hurts the argument.
100% correct
The Russian demands have been lost to the general public under all kinds of mystifications about Putin’s Ukraine obsession or Soviet Union nostalgia or whatever. The Russians have been very clear, and their demands boil down to 3 concrete outcomes:
1. No NATO on its border in Ukraine
2. No NATO attack systems [AEGIS missile launchers] on its borders
3. No NATO hosting of foreign enemy troops [USA] on Russian adjacent territory east of the 1997 NATO borders
The only way that’s going to happen is with Russia soundly defeating NATO which is happening before our very eyes as the war of attrition is consuming all of the idiot west’s arsenals. Stupid is as stupid does.
And how has Putin’s invasion of Ukraine advanced these demands? NATO’s border with Russia has doubled with the addition of Finland to the alliance. With NATO pouring troops and weapons systems into Poland, Finland and the Baltic States, more NATO , and US, troops and attack systems are near the Russian border than ever before. Additionally, NATO has realized that they let their military readiness decline to dangerous levels and are now ramping up weapons and ammunition production. And, by flooding Ukraine with weapons, NATO has killed and wounded tens of thousands of Russian soldiers and destroyed hundreds of tanks and other vehicles, without losing a single NATO soldier, or if you prefer, very few NATO soldiers. And finally, by sending all this equipment to Ukraine, NATO gets to sit back and watch how their weapons perform in a real war and how the Russians react to those weapons. Thus they gain valuable intelligence on NATO weapons effectiveness and Russian tactics so that they can be better prepared in case NATO ever clashes with Russia. So tell me again, how has this war furthered Putin’s goals?
Apparently there are still “Ukraine winings!”
Try this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWd63jRAg58
NAFO?
Is this joke competition? Let me try.
NATO made Putin change his pronouns.
NATO made Sarah Ashton-Cirillo pregnant.
NATO made Shoigu study Afghan goatherder tactics.
NATO renamed Red Square to Rainbow Coloured Polygon WIth Undetermined Number of Corners.
NATO citizens gain valuable intelligence on how to aviod conscription by self castration, which also helped in getting a job in kindergarten and avoiding pedophilia charges.
NATO raised combat effectiveness by renaming everyone to Muhammad.
NATO decided to declare tanks obsolete because they are too hard to make by engineers specialised in gender studies.
NATO decided to buy Russian oil from India, in Yuans.
NATO is buying more Aircraft Carriers in order to make Russia and China bankrupt themselves by making more anti-ship missiles.
NATO ramped up producton of high calliber dildos.
NATO bought drone technology from Houtis, and rockets from Palestine.
But not even NATO can make you get laid (with a biological female). Putin could.
it is obvious that you not only know Putins playbook but also NATOs
Everyone knows Putin’s playbook except Putin himself. He keeps on doing things that he should not.
you have chosen a very fitting name . thanks for the comic relief
I don’t know. Also because said like this it is a manifest impossibility. You can say? Thanks.
P.S. I only know Petraeus’s playbook. Continue in the circus spinning plates!
@theDingo8
A name of a US general was needed in order for another comment to work:
https://sonar21.com/evgeny-prigozhin-truth-teller-mad-man-or-maskirovka/#comment-130930
Petraeus was a logical choice because he is easily recognizable, and probably Larry’s favourite. 🙂
Russia beat the Teutonic Knights, “Battle on the Ice” 1242.
Now that you’ve mentioned it, I expect this movie to be removed from Youtube for being Russian propaganda:
Alexander Nevsky (1938)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKskdbazW7w
Yes, Larry. People have no patience anymore. They want Ukraine to be over with a “big arrow” offensive. And preferably summed up in a 15 second TikTok clip. But the end is coming. And for some reason, I think November’ish will be the time frame.
Nothing exists in a vacuum. By November there will be no Ukrainian victories, and just a mind-numbing slow ink blob crawl forward of Russian advances. NATO and US armories will continue to be drained, while Russian military production hums along. Note that even under the flawed way they calculate GDP Russia rejoined the top 10 the other day at 8th largest GDP.
November will be the start of heating season in Europe. And their energy needs, even if met, are being met a 4x Russian gas cost. Which will continue the de-industrialization of Germany and the economic seppuku of Europe. With corresponding societal unrest.
November is when the Kabuki theater of US elections will start unfolding. And as even the American sheep understand there will not be a win in Ukraine, just a continual outflow of tax dollars? Questions start getting asked on the campaign trail.
Especially as the lag effect of the Fed’s rate hikes are fully realized. Commercial real estate is never “bought”. The loans are 30-year balloon notes that are always refi’d with low monthly payments. Because zombie American companies cannot even pay their rent. And these notes are all rolling in the next few months. From 1% to 6% interest on these notes will lead to more and more failures. And the Fed will not start cutting until things “break”. And this ties in with the fact that the Trump “re-elect me” covid stimmy check money is finally draining fully from the economy. Leaving broke and pissed people.
As the Hispanic invasion of our border hits epic proportions, Ukrainian invasion of Europe will continue as their own people flee. As the back line Nazi’s who never fight but will sure man the press gangs to draft everyone that can walk, talk, and crawl into the meat grinder. And at some point, you have to wonder when the Ukrainian Army Corp decides to stop dying for US foreign policy.
inexorable pressure points from any number of points all leading to a pressure cooker that will eventually blow. Not to mention the corrupt Netanyahu regime in Israel will have to start a war to detract from their own problems. And since due to Mossad/Epstein sexual blackmail material, Israel owns Congress? Back to the sandbox for us.
“And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?”
There is also the possibility of a “black swan” occurring at any moment, in which case November can come in August or even sooner.
It’s their version of the Bay of Pigs (in reverse chronological order), except the difference is, they have balls and won’t simply rely on proxies.
As bad as their losses are, Ukraine still has a *large* number of men under arms. Although not well-trained, nor motivated, nor supplied, Zelensky nonetheless needs a “victory” — or at least *something* that could be packaged and sold in the West as one.
Transnistria.
Even if they lose the ammo dump, Ukraine occupying Transnistria could be spun by the USG and its corporate MSM as a “win”…
regarding the Victory Parade in Moscow; Maybe I am not alone in this opinion, but I have seen enough symbolism in my time to see a magnificent gesture that no one can misunderstand.
Russia may have just clearly told the world that the SMO is still very much alive, that the west has demonstrated that they are nazi sympathizers at least. That the SMO is meant to de-nazify.
That WWII never ended and that it is time to end it now.
1, T34 tank. The ones that came west after destroying the Werhmacht and the Panzer corps.
As far as I know the Victory Day parade always includes T34s (or to be precise T34/85s. T34/76s must be pretty thin on the ground now).
Yes. And other vintage stuff too. It differs from city to city. Here’s video from rehearsal in St Petersburg:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MppeS1EHzTw
It’s an interesting perspective. It’s the special T-34 coming again in front to seek the ghostly and pernicious white tiger (https://www.amazon.com/White-Tiger-Aleksey-Vertkov/dp/B00LPD0FGK). The job has not been finished completely and needs to be finished now. The ghost of nazism is still there hiding and lurking, appearing only to kill and destroy.
That’s a huge task.
It goes deeper than just symbolism. Some WWII vintage guns have been used to shoot Nazis again (by Donbass militias), namely Mosin sniper rifles and an occasional PTRD. There could be a rifle out there that actually shot both an old school Nazi and a new one.
I remember a blog post (Colonel Cassad?) back during the initial Donbass conflict showing a T-34 that had been an outdoor display that was repaired sufficiently for the Donbass militia to use in combat..
I don’t know about T-34, but I’ve seen a video of them starting up an IS-3. I have no idea what happened to it, but I doubt it was combat worthy.
Any confirmation that Syrsky has been eliminated? There are rumours that Zaluzhny has been denazified as well but I’m discounting those since he doesn’t travel anywhere near the front.
My wife reads a lot of Russian news and social media. It was reported a few days ago that top Ukrainian generals had a meeting in an underground bunker which was hit by a hypersonic missile. Syrsky was rumoured to be in there but it is unconfirmed.
“These two systems have the potential to put a nuke in Moscow within 10 minutes of launch from Poland or Romania. See the problem? This threat situation is similar to the one the United States faced in 1961 when the Soviets deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba. ”
This is placing the cart in front of the horse; the missiles in Cuba were placed there in response to US nukes placed in Turkey earlier.
Hi GRR,
Most of us reading Larry’s blog are cognizant of the antecedents surrounding the Cuban Missile Crisis. Given what I know to be the state of general historical knowledge among my fellow Americans, even those 1-2 generations my senior (& I’m over 60), arguing fine points to criticize Larry is just silly.
Larry, please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe your purpose here is to convey, by analogy, the emotional response of both Russian leadership and the Russian people to NATO expansion and placement of WMD within 5-10 minutes flight time of Moscow.
To conclude, dispassionate intellectual arguments can be fun, especially when it’s not your neck on the chopping block, but deep-felt emotion is what truly moves human beings to action. Understanding the other side’s emotions, and thus their motivations is key to successful diplomacy. Don’t shoot the Professor!
For whatever it’s worth. I had a rather peculiar dream last night, the night, sadly, after my mother’s passing away at 84. In short, I saw a defeated and humiliated Zelensky on his knees and in chains with me standing over him in mockery. Often my dreams are portents of what’s to come and signs from the other side to interpret. Only time will tell.
You didn’t piss on him?
I would have like to have done a lot worse than just pissed on him for the suffering and atrocities he’s allowed!!! That would have been just an appetizer.
That costs extra.
Dear Don Larry. The conflict with Ukraine will end when Russia reaches Rome.
They are not going to allow Russia to politically control all of Ukraine. If Ukraine falls, a Ukraine 2.0 will come; 3.0; etc
Nah. They would not go beyond West Adriatic coast.
there is a simple solution to russia`s predicament of having nuclear missiles placed on its doorstep: a renewal of its own efforts to place (preferably hypersonic) nuclear missiles in cuba.
then, and only then, should russia renew its own offer of strategic nuclear arms limitation talks.
Wouldn’t that be something to behold
Zircon armed frigate Admiral Gorshkov is on its World tour. I don’t know if Havana is on the list of destinations, but I’m sure MSM will let us know if it gets close.
Even after defeating Ukraine, if it goes that far, those US launchers will still be sitting there. Let’s recall it took missiles in Cuba to cut a deal last time, albeit with a more rational regime than the neocons currently entrenched. Removing them would be their final humiliation, can’t see it happening.
Russia can offer them cheap oil and cheap gas, five times cheaper than American LNG. And can offer to return parts of Ukraine taken after WW II. Romania and even Poland might accept to survive and thrive. Russia is Poland’s third largest trading partner, and yes they are still doing lots of trade.
“I believe that Russia views those missile launchers in Poland and Romania as part of the de-militarization effort.”
And US occupying Western Balkans too. There is a reason WWI started there.
“I realize this frustrating for those arm chair generals longing for a General Patton to breakout of hedge row country and go scampering across France.”
Patton wouldn’t last a week on the Eastern Front. He could barely deal with lieutenant Gruber in his little tank.
Many people are unaware of the full story of the Cuban Missile Crisis. It is very revealing and began when JFK campaigned for POTUS about the “missile gap” between the US and Russia. Kennedy promised to close the “missile gap” if elected. Once in office he consulted with the Joint Chiefs for recommendations on closing the “missile gap”. The Joint Chiefs recommended installing missiles in Turkey on Russia’s border. When Khrushchev learned of it he warned that there would be consequences if the US persisted in installing missiles on Russia’s border. The US ignored Khrushchev’s warnings and installed missiles in Turkey on Russia’s border. In retaliation Khrushchev began to install Russian missiles in Cuba. When the Joint Chiefs learned of that they began a blockade of Cuba and recommended to JFK that the US go to war with Russia. JFK did not want a war especially in the first year of his term but there was no one in the government that he trusted who could help him resolve the impending crises without it looking like he was backing down. He got his brother Bobby to secretly meet with Khrushchev and they agreed upon a deal: The US would remove the missiles from Turkey and Khrushchev would remove the missiles from Cuba but it could not appear that the US was backing down so Khrushchev would remove the Cuban missiles first and a short while later the US would quietly remove the missiles from Turkey and Khrushchev would not publicly declare that the US agreed to remove the missiles from Turkey. Thus Dean Rusk, Kennedy’s Secretary of State made his famous statement that: “We looked eyeball to eyeball with the Russians and they blinked.” Even today most people believe Rusk’s statement but if you know the full story it was the US that instigated the Cuban Missile Crisis and resolved it by “blinking”.
Ah ah ah! I didn’t know that Dean Rusk statement! Hilarious! They look like kids! Liars.
The Nulands and Blinkens and their allies have been in the process of attempting to
genocide American Southerners and their culture, tearing down their statutes with the enthusiastic help of the US military. Southerners aren’t allowed to show any pride in their historic achievements without being attacked as racists. Diverse groups of European peoples from Ireland to Spain to Italy, Norway and Germany are all lumped into an amorphous blob with no distinct heritage and are called, “Whites”, who have no right to pride in their unique culture/heritage and our US government is the driving force behind this attack.
Larry, although SImplicus argues that the go slow – war of attrition is dictated by legal and economic and political considerations – I see it as critical to demilitarize NATO as part of the process to roll back NATO to western Europe. Thus, maximizing the length of time NATO weapons are presented for destruction in Ukraine is key.
Boiling a frog.
That said, there is a riff about how one goes broke – slowly at first then all of a sudden. It seems like Ukraine is nearing a culmination point (no ammo = going broke suddenly), and that dynamic only has a few months to play out.
Unless NATO forces with NATO caliber ammo enter the fray. Noises of truth from Polish generals could reflect attempting to push back against political pressure on Poland to directly enter western Ukraine in force. I do not believe NATO would come to Poland’s rescue – with what? – instead Poland would serve as the new Ukrainian sacrifice to bleed Russia (in the neocon view). This would resolve the missiles in Poland question (and send a wave of tens of millions of refugees into Germany). Romania might then decide to voluntarily relinquish its missiles (leave NATO) in order to NOT follow the Polish example.
As a side note, I periodically visit SST, to see if the colonel returned to a (non-Latvian) balanced view of the world and recently saw he had passed away. No actual information, but the shift at SST happened after he was Covid vaxxed – so I blame Fauci.
This is sad – SST was one of the few sites with accurate information on the 2013/14 Ukraine/Donbass conflict.
Several commenters (including real journalists) had solid “inside” information not available elsewhere. And a subsequent academic book “Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands” contains several quotes from SST.
This is sad – SST was one of the few sites with accurate information on the 2013/14 Ukraine/Donbass conflict.
Several commenters (including real journalists) had solid “inside” information not available elsewhere. And a subsequent academic book “Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands” contains several quotes from SST.
Maybe off topic, but…
https://news.bitcoin.com/dave-ramsey-dismisses-de-dollarization-concerns-says-brics-currency-chinese-yuan-cant-take-down-us-dollar/
This is both a kinetic and economic struggle for freedom and, what should be, a true constitutional republic that minds it’s own business properly defined.
It’s worse than just the missiles in Poland and Romania. The US Army and Navy have deployed big mobile missile systems that can drive into Finland, Baltic nations, and Ukraine to launch nukes. The Army’s is Dark Eagle hypersonic, and the Navy’s can fire Tomahawks.
“Navy Unveils Truck-Mounted SM-6 Missile Launcher in European Test”; Joseph Trevithick; The War Zone: September 14, 2022;
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/navy-unveils-truck-mounted-sm-6-missile-launcher-in-european-test
Would crazy Americans launch a first strike nuclear war?
“Dr. Strangelove”; movie clip of a psychopathic American General advocating a massive nuclear attack on Russia; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNC0YwuGLqg
“Putin’s Warning”; plea to reporters at the 2016 International Economic Forum to tell the truth; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqD8lIdIMRo
I just finished a video about all this, in the que for August.
Putin Man Bad – they told us on the TV so it must be true and obviously, it’s all you need to know.
Saint Elensky good – here’s another few billion and a shipload of weapons. Now Ukraine is winning and Rusher’s out of ammo. They told us on the TV, so it must be true and obviously, it’s all you need to know.
And if you know something else, it is Putanist Propaganda, pure WrongThink and spreading it is doubleplus bad ThoughtCrime. Big Brother is watching you, with his electronic spy in your pocket or purse, 24×7. Even when you’re not talking or texting, its reporting your location back to Google – is GCHQ now Google Control Head Quarters?
The Party says 2 + 2 is 5, men can have babies, Ukraine is winning and Climate Change is real. I saw it on the TV, so it must be true and obviously, it’s all we need to know, right?
Quite.
It was always my assumption that the Russian plan back in Dec 2021 was to react to US intransigence with a couple of Khinzhals hitting Delesevu and Rzedikowo.
In any case with close relatives travelling in both Poland and Romania I made it very clear that they should not go near either of those sites.
I still would not be surprised if Russia finished off this adventure with said 2 Khinzhals, though more likely US will have closed them down by then.
I’d say the question is “how long can the US/NATO hold on?” How long before Poland and their chums, and of course the US which already has forward-deployed quite a few troops, run out of gas and ammo? The Arsenals of the West are ramping up—Russia has a bit of a head start (though through my small window I see statements by Russian pro-business persons about privatizing all that production capacity, per persistent 1990s neoliberal virus) but that can be lost. Even the Russian wonderweapons will eventually be neutered or surpassed. And China is content to let the Russians do the fighting and aren’t about to create a second front.
So how long will the Fascist-neocon congeries keep the pressure on?
Only one little problem — the Aegis Ashore system can also be used to launch nuclear tipped Tomahawk Cruise missiles.
And that’s exactly what the Russians have been publicly saying for at least 10 years, more like 15 only to hear – “it’s only used against Iranian (sometimes N.Korea substituted) missiles and ‘what nukes? You’re simply making things up.”
Yeah, guess we know who’s been lying all along.
Larry, the Tomahawk flies at ~900km/hr going flat out. It would take ~1.5hrs to reach Moscow from Redzikowo and almost 2hrs from Deveselu. Even Block IV (the latest) would be at the limit of its range from Deveselu flying at top speed.
The Tomahawk is also notoriously inaccurate and vulnerable to both kinetic and electronic countermeasures. The 60 missile attack on Shayrat Air Base in Syria demonstrated that anybody sending one can expect it to hit anything but its target.
The Russians are worried that western missile technology may advance in future, not the Tomahawk.
“These two systems have the potential to put a nuke in Moscow within 10 minutes of launch from Poland or Romania.”
How?
– Tomahawks are sub-sonic, time is measured in hours.
– Other missiles the MK41 launchers are integrated with can’t reach. Not even close.
– To my knowledge, the USA does not even make a missile with the required speed and reach, short of ICBMs and derivatives. What are they going to do, ask the Russians to borrow some?
Though if they could launch from inside Ukraine, that would change. Hence the obvious red line for Russia.
Ah, just read Putin’s responses.
What he said was that at some point in the future, based on the Pentagon’s hoped-for missile development, those sites could be threatening. I buy that; at some point, as the USA pursues hypersonics, that would become true. Though really, any base that can roll a truck-mounted launcher off a C-17 would make that true.
He also claimed that Iran was no longer a threat based on the agreements they signed. That, I don’t buy. They aren’t quite as bad as the USA when it comes to agreements (ask an Indian tribe), but they aren’t good and their overall direction is clear.
Problem: MK41 being closed cell and quickly reloadable on land, verification of Aegis Ashore loadout would be an issue.
From here it looks like a solvable arms control problem, but not with the endless push for NATO expansion and incitement in Ukraine. I can see why Russia would say that the total picture is too hostile, it isn’t about the weapons any more it’s about YOU, so it all has to go. Which is basically what their proposal for security in Europe boiled down to, IIRC.
Now we see who can force the issue. So far, betting money ought to be on the Russians. But it’s going to be slow.
Larry is being quoted by Russian RT https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2023-05-11/Eks-analitik-CRU-Zelenskomu-nuzhno-sokratit
Former CIA analyst: Zelensky needs to reduce cocaine use – it affects mental abilities
Commenting on Zelensky’s recent statement, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson told Judging Freedom that the Ukrainian leader should cut back on drug use as it affects his mental abilities. Johnson also said that Russia would eventually crush the Ukrainian army and NATO along the way.
VLADIMIR ZELENSKY, President of Ukraine : We are fighting now so that no one will ever again enslave other peoples and destroy other countries. And all the old evil that modern Russia is returning will be defeated in the same way that Nazism was defeated. We will not lose what has been conquered, we will return everything captured by the enemy, we will rebuild what was destroyed, and together we will protect it all. We do not yet know the date of our victory, but we know that it will be a holiday for all of Ukraine, all of Europe, the entire free world. LARRY JOHNSON, former CIA analyst :
He needs to use less cocaine. Obviously, this affects his mental abilities. The reality is that Russia has not been staging invasions of other countries. Russia has not staged expeditionary military adventures, except in Syria, where it entered at the invitation, I think, in 2015, to help Syria fight off Islamic rebels financed by the United States and Britain.
The notion that Russia is an aggressive power is a lie. Don’t forget that Zelensky, when he ran for president, promised to finally bring peace. But, once in the office, he made a 180-degree turn and supported people like the Azov Battalion * – neo-Nazis, active Nazis.
He also supported the destruction and eradication of Russian culture and Russian heritage. What he says is nonsense. Russia will eventually crush the Ukrainian army and NATO along the way. And Zelensky will be lucky if he stays alive. If he survives, he will become an exile.
Publication date May 10, 2023.
* “Azov” – the organization was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of 08/02/2022.
Why enslave them when you can just kill them, right Zelensky?
Why enslave them when you can just kill them, right Zelensky?
He can’t hear you, he’s too busy hiding in his bunker next to Poroshenko while the Donbass kids go to school.
It should be noted, that unlike Frau Baerbock, Mr Johnson payed attention in geometry class when he was a boy.
It is correct that Ukraine is losing. But Russia has not won an outright victory yet, in that Ukrainian army and state have not collapsed. How much longer for it to happen? Who knows.
I commend the conservative approach Russia has taken, but … it is the “boiling the frog” scenario that is being deployed against it. The NATO and the West have repeatedly crossed Russian red lines with impunity. First no weapons, then only defensive weapons and then offensive weapons only short range, then no range limitation etc. Next fighters, then what?
Russia has let the West escalate with impunity. Unless it puts its foot down and reacts harshly to any violation of its red line, the West will keep going until the threshold of a nuclear war. Meanwhile Russian troops are getting killed by thousands, while the West suffers little manpower losses. Remember Lindsey Graham of “to the last Ukrainian without losing a single American”? Would USA have tolerated the loss of tens of thousands of its soldiers without escalating to nuclear threshold?
The least Russia could do is bomb the decision making centers (Kiev first) and render the travel of Western “dignitaries” to Kiev dangerous by leveling the railways to Poland. If it does not have the guts to do at least that … The West does not appreciate decency (it never heard of that) and respects only raw military power. Russia needs to display its might or else it risks becoming the proverbial frog.
It is correct that Ukraine is losing. But Russia has not won an outright victory yet, in that Ukrainian army and state have not collapsed.
That would only be half a loaf. NATO collapse and a new European-wide security architecture forged that they’ve only been calling for for twenty years is the only victory permissible for the Russians.
A necon collapse I’m sure would be welcome in the US as well but a book-burning of their literature and banishment to mopping up the blood of their victims in perpetuity would do in a pinch.
“Out! damn blood spot!” to be their never-ending refrain.
Neither side has won an outright victory. Though russias first few days were pretty impressive and they still have the all important land bridge.
But you make some good points.
BTW, I’d be cautious about the msm “huge Russian losses” stories which are not substantiated.
On the matter of deployment of “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles in Ukraine, having a range of 250km, Peskov says:
“This will require an adequate response from our military, who from a military point of view will make appropriate decisions against this background,”
The previously mentioned response is that the front lines will need to be pushed further west to protect the citizens of Donbass from these longer range missiles. Eventually the map of Ukraine will resemble a small city state centered around Kiev.
Speaking in the British Parliament, Wallace said that Storm Shadow missiles would allow Ukraine to “push back Russian forces.”
Or visa-versa.
The British lion has become a flea-bitten alley cat hooked on donated catnip.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-vows-ironclad-support-israel-gaza-fighting-enters-3rd-day
Meanwhile in Israel. Warfare is developing in interesting areas. It is AK47 versus the M16 writ large. The missiles being launched at Israel are about 2k each. Primitive with no guidance. The David’s Sling and Iron Dome interceptors are 200k each.
Even with American taxpayers being systematically rendered to support the genocidal Israeli regime, that gets expensive.
And that is the soft underbelly of the western MIC fraud machine.
As a Choctaw Indian I will share a saying. It ain’t never the arrow that kills you, it’s the Indian.
Simply fantastic you guys. America absolutely needs people like you to rebuild it from scratch. A monumental task. Seeing (?) the “real” power behind the whole leadership and governance in the US, any leadership behind this reconstruction will need to seek some form of support from other power centers interested in you guys succeeding.
Harfang67 :
Tell me if I’m wrong: the “financial cabal”(you know those with historic wealth accumulation through wars, etc) is using the “nazi world-wide resources of today” to muster a 21st century attack on Russia to try a world domination attempt (it probably will be the final one because they know very well that informed people know who they are and they will have nowhere to hide (in some bunker in New-Zealand but for how long?); America was their last hope to muster some physical power but they are working so hard at destroying the fundamental fabric of US society that they are shooting at their own foot. I’ve read from Laurent Guyenot’s recent book that these people( the real power I mentionned above) do not believe in life after death, period. We’re dealing with very different humans here , do not forget.
John 18:38
38 “What is truth?” retorted Pilate. With this he went out again to the Jews gathered there and said, “I find no basis for a charge against him.
The Outlaw Josey Wales….”it is unfortunate that govt’s are chief-ed by the double tongues..”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyPZFi2b380
Our basic natural law and Christian morality…. holds us back..from just slaughtering all the liars in DC and the agencies… piling the corpses…. heads on a pike…
Some times… I think that way would be better for the common good.
The truth about Pilate, is he had a signed Imperial Decree for the judicial murder, handed to him by his wife, the Emperor’s niece.
Pilate was a Sophist.
The Empire has been there, done that!
my thought is . Russia doesnt have its nukes in Moscow. perhaps 1or2 in far eastern Siberia, that will hit NA in the blinken of an eye tho
Everyone watches Bakhmut, and the Aegis.
But see this from Martyanov :
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/10/a-blast-from-past.html
should make hair stand on end!
How close we came to the destination the Empire , again, today desires!
Stopped then by Martyanov’s boss, Vasily Alexandrovich Arkhipov before he became the Captain 2nd Rank (Commander) and the Chief of Staff of the 69th BRPL (Brigade of Submarines) of the Northern Fleet – who refused to fire a nuke torpedo!
The USSR needed 3 go’s, and 1 cool head refused to play along. And all that offshore Cuba.
Hi Larry, I much appreciate your comments and analyses. Can you recommend a good book about CIA history as you experienced it? Thanks!
Suggest you read Legacy of Ashes.
Or listen to the audiobook on YouTube
Ukrainian neo-Nazis do not consider themselves to be ethnically related to Russians. They consider themselves to be related to Germanic peoples. They consider Russians to be Asiatics.
The deception operation from 51 intelligence professionals claiming that
the story about Hunter Biden’s laptop bore the hallmarks of Russian disinformation
is carefully, and critically, examined here:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/05/the-cias-bud-light-moment/
The Strassel WSJ article:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-cia-assist-in-the-2020-presidential-election-hunter-laptop-intel-community-letter-bddd4564
More on the CIA soliciting people to sign the letter:
CIA threatened with subpoena for records on letter discrediting Hunter Biden laptop
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cia-threatened-subpoena-records-letter-discrediting-hunter-biden-laptop
2023-05-17