Remember three weeks ago when Putin and the Russian military were on the ropes and the Ukrainian army was steamrolling through Kharkov? That was then and Urkaine’s promised victory failed to materialize. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that Russia abandoned the strategically meaningless territory in the Kharkov Oblast of Ukraine and re-deployed forces to the Donbas, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson. Why? To be in position for the referendum–i.e., to defend the Ukraine oblasts that would be given the chance to vote whether or not to reunite with mother Russia. Putin’s subsequent announcement of the referenda, which began last Friday, was not a Hail Mary pass nor an act of desperation. The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.
While Ukraine continued to throw its troops against the Russian lines and launched artillery strikes on civilian targets, it paid a terrible price in terms of human casualties and destroyed tanks and combat vehicles, and failed completely to disrupt the vote. There have been international observers monitoring the vote throughout the four oblasts. I wish at least one reporter would ask these observers when they were first contacted and asked to come to the Russian controlled territory and do the monitoring. That detail would provide some insight into the extent of the pre-planning for the referenda.
It appears that the vote to reunite with Russia will be overwhelming in favor of becoming Russian republics. Once the results are certified the Russian Duma will act to accept the decision and Putin will put the cherry on the sundae and make it official. At that point–this Friday–the special military operation in Ukraine will end and Russia will be in position to defend its new territory.
I expect Putin to speak commemorating the event and will put Ukraine, NATO and the United States on notice that any further attacks on Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson will be an attack on Russia. Ukraine and the west will be on notice. The ball will be in their court.
This will create an opportunity for what is left of Ukraine to seek peace. I doubt that Ukraine and the west will accept this chance. The attacks on the new Russian population will continue and Russia will act. In contrast to the restraint demonstrated during the course of the last six plus months, Russia is likely to respond with more aggressive tactics that may include turning off the power in Ukraine and attacking command centers, including Zelensky’s headquarters in Kiev. This will lead to a significant escalation in the combat, but Ukraine and NATO will have a limited capacity to respond. Why?
The west no longer has the industrial base to match Russia’s production of war material. This weakness is compounded by the double whammy of inflation and economic collapse that is savaging Europe and starting to hurt the United States. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, recently published an important essay detailing this decline:
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined.https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
This is the work of Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin, a US citizen. He spells out in detail the challenge the United States and its NATO allies face if they dare to engage Russia in a tit-for-tat battle:
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Russia, by contrast, enjoys the luxury of defense plants that are operating 24-7 and producing ammunition, vehicles, tanks, drones, missiles and rockets. The west still labors under the delusion that Russia’s economy is barely tottering along. Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel required to produce what the Russian military needs to sustain operations; especially intense combat operations.
I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.
The coming weeks will expose fractures in the NATO alliance. Britain, for example, woke up this morning to learn that the once mighty pound Sterling, which once had twice the value of the US dollar, is now worth less than the dollar. That means that the Brits will be paying more for products they import from the United States. Although the United States only accounts for 12% of the UK imports, the price increase will further inflame the inflationary spiral in the UK. Newly minted British Prime Minister Liz Truss already is facing push back from the Tories about her proposed economic plan. The death of Queen Elizabeth put the political problems on a back burner for a couple of weeks. That honeymoon is over and the pressure of domestic politics in the UK will make continued support for Ukraine less certain.
The collapsing economies in France, Germany and Italy also will compel those countries to spend more time trying to quiet growing domestic unrest. When you factor in the energy crisis and Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack.
Here are links to what Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov said a couple of days ago, and it all sounded accurately in line with reality, history, developments–events . . .
. . . What am I missing?
Are there any American orators who can state the current official case such as he has done?
And here is a link to some corroborating background:
Anatomy of a Coup: How CIA Front Laid Foundations for Ukraine War
The “cracking” of NATO is loooong overdue and is only a decent start. Ditto for the EU. Both are evil constructs foisted upon the world by powers that are interested only in controlling society and its resources for their own benefit.
Andrew Charnley says
And my thanks to you for your effort in putting this on screen for our attention…
“Are there any American orators who can state the current official case such as he has done?”
If there are, they stay a country mile away from the Biden WH.
You do excellent work, Larry. Keep it up!
“Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.”
I’ve seen comments from the criminally insane Biden Regime threatening just that which is my concern! This diabolic group cares about nothing but power, per the orders of its DAVOS rulers! In their warped minds a nuclear war can be won, the mass casualties be damned! Hell, and I mean that literally, they’re all about decreasing the population, and what better way than a nuclear war!
I don’t recall in my lifetime, I’m 76, a Vietnam War Navy Veteran of the Security Group Command, such lunacy proffered as acceptable!
God bless us all, we’re going to need it, and you for your outstanding Service in putting out the Truth in the fog of the agitprop lies of the Father-of-lies!
Top Gum says
In my opinion this is only empty talk as the US has nothing else to show for. They know they are not in a position of strength and they are not capable to start or win a nuclear standoff with a superpower like Russia. Mr. Putin himself stated many years ago that those playing with fire will be burned too. This remark was aimed at the US after the coup in Kiew. US was behind that and they won’t be spared by simply denying it and hoping that nothing will happen. Once you neutralize the root cause of the problems, the problems will go away.
US is not only a dying hegemon. US also has a gigantic debt problem. They know that no matter how you look at that, they are bankrupt. Because they are a bully no one wants to touch that topic, as everyone knows would happen to them. Also too many people with influence are too involved into that ponzi and there will be many loosers among them if that ponzi finally implodes.
The US has not much room to maneuver anyway. Supporting Kiew and denying any involvement at the same time is such a low and stupid move. It shows that the US is in no position to openly call the shots. They are on very thin ice and they know it.
Eric Newhill says
I wouldn’t be so sure it’s empty talk, Top. Notice all the propaganda being hyped about Russia falling apart economically, people revolting and fleeing the draft, the Russian military being incompetent and largely killed off and being beaten all the way back to its own borders. Turcoplier a while back even questioned if Russian nukes really work. Nope, seen it before. The US is psyching itself up to do something nuts, IMO. Dr. Strangelove is alive and still crazy after all these years.
This is a derangement syndrome similar to the hysteria over Trump and Hillary’s lost election, Russian hacking and collusion blah blah blah. People caught in a mass psychosis can do anything.
I had to giggle at Biden’s arch reference to “things we can do” to render impossible any kind of recovery by Europe wising up and going, hat in hand, to Russia to enter into new fuel supply contracts. And Mirabile Dictu, Nord Streams I and II sprung fortuitous leaks! How about that for a coincidence?
These people who rule the “combined West,” pretty much all in the US imperial stack, with augmentation from the UK’s idiocy pool, seem to me to be really effing insane crazy. I wonder if anyone here has any ears to the ground inside the “policy” hut that have anything to say about plans for the actual deployment of nukes. I believe the US and “allies” including Israel likely have Russian/Soviet manufactured nukes of various potencies that would fit in well with false flag operations. You know that this kind of Death Wish foolishness is part of the options packages being developed. I mean, it’s not like the burning idiocy of these people and their detachment from, and disparagement of, the actual real world political economy.
So far, the wider world has survived its nuclear MADness by dumb luck and occasionally the intervention of some lower-level officer who acted outside his chain of command to to circuit-break the start of The Big One. There is no reason to believe that we humans, having proved how idiotic and destructive and self-destructive we so often are, will luck out if a few a$$es in the current Imperial Klatsch use their scope of action to do something spectacularly stupid, backed by impeccable logic based on the airiest of postulates.
10 to 1 says
“I believe the US and “allies” including Israel likely have Russian/Soviet manufactured nukes of various potencies that would fit in well with false flag operations.”
Crimes are more likely to occur when the chances of getting caught are zero. If a nuke event where to occur, who would be blamed? Not the US, nor Israel because they dominate the information warfare space.
No different than Ukraine forces know they can commit war crimes without retribution, because of their control over information with the help of private companies who are experts at manipulating public opinion and based in places like the US, UK and Israel.
Richard Simpson says
Well said and likely an accurate analysis of our current delusional thinking.
But a dying hegemon is very, very dangerous. No empire gives up power without a fight.
If the US defaults on their debt to the FED (about half of the total), and dissolve it, I think that would be fine and would do wonders for everyone’s welfare, in the US and abroad. Central banks are the leech sucking the world productivity dry and provoking a lot of conflicts.
Steve noel says
With Biden ik power the crazies just might do a flase flag nuclear war serious losing is not an option for them
Serendipity? The Russians may be faithful Christians in church, but they’re practical scientists in the field. Ask Andrei Martyanov about military operations. Everything planned down to the last cartridge, bandage, loaf of bread. Every square meter of target measured, allotted its share of artillery.
Putin knew that the SMO would demilitarize not only Ukraine but NATO, too, if it persisted. The offer of negotiations was always there which he hoped would be accepted. He also knew Russia’s military capacity. “Luckily”, he’s still not angry, so there’s a chance. God forbid if Medvedev was running the show – Kiev and Lvov would be ashes.
Top Gum says
Don’t take Mr. Medvedev to seriously. He is actually in a position to state clear threats to Russias enemies. That is why he can be very direct and spot on. This is how you conduct diplomacy when your opponents are delusional enough to think that they are going to defeat you. Mr. Medvedev is not a hardliner. This is simply how the Russian leadership is spelling out things to some overconfident, war-hungry bubble-heads in the west.
Mede’ is Putin’s attack dog. However, to continue the SMO into “war”, his threats might come true. Putin has already warned about striking “decision centers”, meaning Kiev, Lvov and NATO command posts. A concussion clears the brain…
Actually when President Putin mentioned striking decision making centres he clarified a few sentences on that the US and NATO were the ones making the decisions and as such talking to the EU and European states was pointless.
Medvedev audience is angry Russians not others. His job is to be their heard voice, to express their thoughts and so reduce their anger, as they feel understood by power.
Putin is patient. He is picking his time as he only gets one good strike at the West. The blow has to be well timed and lethal.
Our vulnerability cannot be overstated. We are a paper tiger, with lots of sunlight showing through the holes. The bear will rip it to shreds, and it will be a rout too pathetic to even laugh about. I just hope I can stay out of the way as these arrogant blockheads get hammered into round holes. Unfortunately, I have no doubt they will attempt to use the regular people as ablative armor to forestall the inevitable.
Good point. I’ve been wondering whether a sort of MFA triangulation exists where Medvedev is the heavy, Maria is the rapier wit who skewers the western spewers of bullshit, and Lavrov is the wise, unflappable sage. A trio that keeps the strategic ambiguity at high volume.
Top Gum says
They are all intelligent, sound and reasonable people. I would not put anyone of them into a box for how they publicly express Russian policy. The west has targeted Mr. Putin for almost everything he had said or done. They twist his words and even his body language in the most brazen ways to make him appear as somebody evil or insane. I think Russia’s leadership is slowly running out of ways to tell the west the most simple things. I guess they still get the message. It is the public that has to deal with western MSM daily BS that often changes even the obvious statements, so those will fit the given political narrative.
But someone has to tell the west how things really are. So nobody can later say they haven’t been warned. Russia has many times criticized the west for their megaphone diplomacy. But that has become the new normal now. Things going like that only further indicate that the collective west is going down the drain in my opinion. They want it that way, they will get it that way.
You just nailed it on the head.
The sad sack Craig Roberts, I believe it was him who had a article in Zero Hedge. The photo fronting the article supports what you just said. It’s a well published photoshopped joke of Putin eating pop corn.
Not enough for Roberts : he has it further photoshopped it to have Putins face disfigured and grotesque. It was a Game Changer not!
Zerohedge has more than a touch of the intelligencia about it.
IE photoshopped Putin on the back of a bear crossing the river with his shirt off.
I have been observing over the last 7 months that when the photo reappears Putins head gets smaller making the biceps and broad chest huge ….scary Putin.
Indicative of Putin (+Russia) becoming increasingly powerful . It’s the subtle and subliminal nuances that shows you the trend.
As a legendary Armchair General of national renowned it’s just a question of connecting the fucking dots.
Bob Jackson says
Reply to Aaron below (no reply link).
Your article can’t be by Paul Craig Roberts.
Throughout President Putin’s tenure, he has consistently attacked the hostile Western iconography. I believe a New Statesman cover first drew his ire.
I don’t think he is a sad sack. His position has been consistent, and has merit.
He believes peace is impossible while the Wolfowitz Doctrine remains in place. However much Russia tries to mind its own business, the US will try to destroy it, as Russia is a potential peer competitor. Appeasing the US only brings greater trouble.
On the other hand, Andrei Martyanov explains that the Russians work on probabilities. If they have an over 95 per cent chance of success, they will proceed. If not, they fall back on whichever lesser policy promises 95 per cent success.
So both are right. The Russians might have bluffed earlier, but the risks were too great for them. Now they have called the “American” (i.e. Jewish neocon) bluff, from a position of overwhelming strength, the stakes are too high for the “Americans” to back down.
Paul Craig Roberts used to be attacked by the Saker community, who believed Russia had no interest in Ukraine. It would support its fellow Russians across the border, but would never incorporate them. They thought Russian defences were impregnable.
That position seems to have lapsed. They freaked out over Covid (which the Defense Department gave Paul Baric $100 million dollars to develop) for, in George Eliot’s phrase, the pest can take the strongest citadel. And yesterday an article urged Russia to make decisive territorial gains. So much for our war of manoeuvre.
Mike D. says
I am amazed how many Americans expect that Russia will be squashed and they can continue fantasy football, gambling, Netflix. That is truly who the news is aimed at.
New York City could be a radioactive pile of dust but if it is reported the Jets came has been postponed due to violent storms-it is time to watch the other game.
“I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity.” I don’t think that the Russians were aware in the beginning that the US and the EU would go as far as they have supplying military aid. It’s hugely expensive, of course. While US defense industries profit in the short term as they do from destroying European industry; they will suffer in the longer term.as a global recession hits and the world, of necessity, de-dollarizes. The Russians must have known the US COULD got this root — mad, as it is — but they couldn’t count on it until the spring this year. Serendipity indeed! The slow and careful SMO, now followed by incorporation of Southern Ukraine will accelerate things. European neo-fascism is populist and overt channeling anger and powerlessness and pain; American neoliberal fascism is elitest and covert, channeling consumerist sloth and greed. But European fascists are not necessarily pro-American! Expect blowback. https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/how-the-west-was-won-russias-victory
There is not two kinds of fascism. Fascism is the regime of in power finance capital. It is the “fighting committee” of monopoly capitalism. Populism can express itself all over the ideological spectrum and does, usually, thats why its populism.
There is only one kind of fascism, that invented by Benito Mussolini, also known as national-socialism in Germany. If people start using the same word for everything, language becomes useless.
CORRECT. And if people would just read what Mussolini said in Italian, then people would understand what Fascism really is:
Mussolini – THE DOCTRINE OF FASCISM
CORRECT! Best to read what Mussolini said in Italian since translations get distorted. Understanding the true meaning would prevent misuse. Same can be said for Karl Marx and Communism. People get triggered by the word (propaganda) without having read the third volume; “Capital – A Critique of Politcal Economy Volume 3”. Read this and you will understand why the “Private International Finance Cabal” want to keep people in the dark using propaganda. Everything (((they))) do is against your (regular citizens) best interest.
Mussolini – THE DOCTRINE OF FASCISM
We have not had capitalism since 2008. Too big to fail and too big to jaill. The uber rich and corps have a tap at the FED for basically free money to keep system affolt ….many companies never made any money like UBER yet still rakes in billionaires from FED monies. What we have feudalism again. All Economic And Poltical Power in a few private hands and we only get our highly censored news from tech and media companies they own.
Instead of owning all the land like Feudal days they own our thoughts delivered through your google phone or MSM. But they’ll own all the land again too one day.
Marcos Santos says
I believe the Russians never imagined the west would commit collective harakiri.
Now with plans it is such a thing.
Good plans contain all possible options, evaluated according to probabilities, with the respective impact assessments and alternative actions … and then Look mor times …
“I don’t think”
That is correct you don’t think you believe, and hence self limit your “perspectives”.
So what (whose) perspective is missed? Help us all out.
“Help us all out.”
We don’t do spoon feeding and hence don’t restrict others practicing, although such may appear outwith your “perspective”.
Some would suggest fallbacks of others, as outlined in a conversation between a customer service executive with a Ternopil accent schooled in the works of Mr. Dmytro Donstov, and an older lady with a not wholly polite Kievan oblast accent on Independence Square in February 2014 when the Jewish lady forgot the salt, which was approximately:
Not wholly polite lady : These Zhy** are back trying to making us guests in our own house like before.
Customer service executive : Don’t worry when they have served their purposes it will be like before.
The Jewish lady did not only forget the salt, but also “All that glisters is not gold.”
It appears also that Mr. Zelensky is disappointed in Israel.
Who knew this blog had a sphinx speaking riddles for a commenter?
“Some would suggest fallbacks”
“Customer service executive : Don’t worry when they have served their purposes it will be like before.
The Jewish lady did not only forget the salt, but also “All that glisters is not gold.””
General Moshe Dayan: “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.” A key part of the insane Washington playbook now? It would seem so.
And the Israeli ‘Samson Option’ might similarly be elevated as ‘strategy’ for The Empire of Bullshitters… Lol
” Israeli ‘Samson Option’
Like the holocaust or shoah the Samson option has been occasionally used as a blackmail tool.
There was a conference in 1993 in Obnynsk with invited foreign guests.
I paraphrase a response during the refreshment break from one of the hosts to one Israeli guest who outlined a Samson Option: the conversation did not appear in the “minutes”
Samson option ?
That would likely please some.
Are you sure you would be so generous in repeating Masada on a grander scale – after all Samson is not MAD?
The Samson option is an emulation of the disappointed girl who threatened to sit down and eat worms in hope of influencing others who realise everybody dies, but some are willing to share simultaneous experiences of dying to avoid certain outcomes.
These understandings are outlined in Presidential decree no 355 of 2nd June 2020, with a subsequent addition in respect of the usage of biological weapons.
You need to watch nightly Tucker Carlson on Fox News the only truth telling commentator.
Eric Newhill says
Spot on, Larry. On top of that, I am still wondering where Ukraine will get the diesel to fuel its transport and armor. In 2021, 50% of diesel imports came from Belarus. Will Belarus continue to deliver? I’d be surprised. The rest came from a mix of Eastern EU state sources, all of whom will be struggling with diesel supply themselves if Russia wills it to be so. Hard to fight a modern war without diesel. Also, we already know that Russia can take out the electrical system that powers the rail system. I suspect that once Russia has set up a grid that only supplies the new Russian territories, the supply to non-Russian parts of Ukraine will be cut.
Larry Johnson says
Thanks for the info on the diesel. Key logistic.
Merci monsieur Johnson pour cet article, encore une fois très fructueux. L’argumentaire est poignant. Cependant, si pour certains matériaux clé, Le diesel qui est à juste titre cité, ou bien les gaz rares tels que le néon, pourraient hypothéquer les capacités de lOTAN, je ne comprends pas que les USA, GB. France, Allemagne, Japon, Corée, Italie pourraient manquer de base industrielle. Peut être le coût va être élevé pour relancer ces filières pour approvisionner les armées respectives. Enfin, pour la Russie, oui c’est une lutte pour la survie, mais que serait une défaite de l’OTAN ? Je n’arrive pas à croire que ces gouvernements les meilleures universités, instituts, etc… puissent faire l’économie de cet effort. La dette US est 300000 mds $, la France 2900 etc…ce ne sera pas miraculeux que de tirer encore des billets de dette….face aux conséquences d’une défaite en Ukraine.
Carl Schurz says
diesel logistics. Take out the diesel/kerosene and the military equipment stands still. Shooting at lame ducks begins.
Yesterday I spoke to a friend about the growing price difference (Germany). Gasoline is becoming even cheaper than diesel. That was reversed by 2021. I have attributed the cause of this to the enormous needs of NATO and its “protégé” Ukraine. Western Ukraine has hardly any industrial base.
IIRC, Russian crude yields a greater fraction of diesel. I would expect that lower yielding substitutes and re-tuning a refinery to distill them would raise the relative cost of diesel vs. gasoline. (I was trained in fluid geophysics, with enough solid to collaborate with colleagues.)
And that is exactly why Europe is more diesel-oriented than, say, the U.S. – because Europe has been dependent on Russian oil, and Russian oil yields more diesel as a percentage. Just another reason why the EU leaders are idiots. Replacing Russian oil sounds good, but the replacement oil has to also yield a lot of diesel.
eagle eye says
I did see an article about a month ago from an oil industry expert which pointed out that switching a refinery from Russian crude stock to anything else was not a simple exercise but a major project that would typically take up anything up to two years of planning under “normal” conditions, but post covid and amidst a conflict that involves sanctions who knows how long it would take to get supplies lined up. That was just the planning and stockpliing of resources needed for the 6 month shutdown it was projected would be needed to covert the refinery to run the new crude feedstock.
Hubris, meet Nemisis.
Meanwhile, down here at the other end of the planet, I have grass, hay and mild winters, and my neighbour has horses.
I’m not sure about Lukashenko; he seems to be a bit like Erdogan, hard to predict and not fully trusted.
I do not agree that Putin will put anyone on notice.
That I think has already taken place in NYC last week. If we are lucky peace could brake out in Eastern Europe, I hope so, you never know.
I believe that a decision has been taken that if so much as a snowball crosses the border, the civilian/military command structure will be removed along with anything that it requires to operate.
Hope I am wrong.
SMO is over:
A night of terror as a 500 missile strike destroys all military/ civilian, infrastructure and power stations. When the sun rises nothing in Nazi Ukraine will function. That’s when 20 million Ukraine Nazis pour into Europe. Who will then be immediately offered Green German “free” one way airfares and or boat trips to Canada or Martha’s Vine yard. Regardless what Canadian or American voters think or want!
Russia : not bluffing with 4000 nukes locked and loaded.
China will be ditto.
Iran ready to launch EVERY missile it has all at once at Israeli Jews who admire & vote for the Jew of the Year, Zelenskyy Nazi. (this not a holocaust joke, but it looks like one.)
North Korean Rocket man : rocks Soul and Japan.
Bye bye Brandon, buggery, the Western merchants of death and financial slavery.
Sound trivial, a tad immature or silly….? some free advice, don’t bet your balls on it.
The Western Fruit and Nuts are insane and will destroy mankind.
SYNONYMS of insanity.
Aberration, dementia, derangement, lunacy,madness, mania, rage (archaic).
Vote for your favourite Washington DC / Brussels/ London/ psycho condition.
Hear, hear!!!! A much more than likely scenario of what is about to happen in the coming weeks and months!!!
Moscow has for many months been telling NATOland that their counterattacks will be on those centers and groups giving the attack orders. (Aka command and control centers in Pentagon parlance)
Moscow has warned all the various NATOland military and maybe even civilian command centers will be targets – that means from a NATO battalion command center in Donetsk, to Ramstein, Incirlik, Aviano, Brussels, and including the Pentagon.
I doubt Kiev or Lemberg will be laid to waste. It’s much more likely NATO command and control centers will be targeted, given Moscow’s official statements
Top Gum says
I don’t think that is what they had in mind. I assumed it will be command centers in Ukraine hosting NATO advisers and instructors.
But I can imagine that an attack (via Ukraine as the obvious NATO proxy) on Russia deep inside their soil would trigger an counter-attack like on Ramstein. One hyper-sonic missile as an last warning and retaliation.
At least the US is somehow itching for it, in my opinion.
There is widespread discontent in Russia with the slow and relatively docile SMO.
Russian leadership is both giving West enough rope to hang itself and inviting escalation from the US/UK at a level that could create disaster for the world.
Whether disaster comes before hanging or vice versa will determine the date of everyone.
A sick game gone too far. If people have any sense they will now have regard to the hackles rising on their necks.
When the US with support of EU brutalised so many innocent people and destroyed lives in entire countries. The dream was it only happened over there and if you look away and stay quiet while children bleed and starve you are not part of it.
When the US turns to savage Europe no one will speak out. Because Europe feasted where America slaughtered.
After that even the Brits will realize they are dispensable and how everyone will laugh when America destroys their lapdog and partner.
Finally, America will turn on its own. Those who voted again and again for the same two parties and who cared nothing of how both supped on blood of others.
“There is widespread discontent in Russia with the slow and relatively docile SMO.”
How wide is it spread ?
Did that include many Hamlets?
“A sick game gone too far.”
Perhaps a better synopsis of your observations are reliance on games not yet gone far enough?
Another primarily externally held “interpretation” is:
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous.” Here is a short video about this:” and a response to the primarily externally held “interpretation” is:
Mr. Orwell and his first wife understood that “The United States of America”, “The British Empire” and “The Soviet Union” were close synonyms in content, but lesser synonyms in forms as coercive social relations, each requiring the existence of the others to sustain the existence of each other – hence that “wars” were not to be won but continuous – the optimum interactions were understood to be linear in hope/ignorance of no “war” is to be/can be won, only transcendended.
Some others in later times understood that the transcendence of “The Soviet Union” would facilitate with time lag the transcendence of “The United States of America” with the complicity of “The United States of America”, and by doing so they would catalyse/encourage lateral processes of transcending coercive social relations by social relations based upon mutual co-operation, not co-operation by coercion.
These processes facilitated/facilitate the greater anger of “The United States of America” which in large part subsumed “The British Empire”, towards The Russian Federation than was the case towards “The Soviet Union”, since resort to lateral interactions by one poses an existential threat to those seeking to remain within linear paradigms – hence the nonsense about “We won the Cold War”, “rule based order” and “destruction of (representative) democracy” – the ongoing process of lateral change/transcendence of those playing games, by those not playing, but in the abscence of analytical facility by the other deemed to be playing chess in x dimensions framed by/predicated upon beliefs that every one plays games.
Games are paradigms ergo linear – constrained by limits by design – a current example being :
The usage of sanctions within a continuous war.
which is an example of not yet going far, whilst encouraging further trips.
More on the referendum “Game” changer.
“What if the conflict is aimed at containing Western Europe within the banker’s grasp and Russia is just being used as a proverbial Boogeyman.”
That has been the case since at least 1917, systematised by way of The Treaty of Versailles in 1919 and NATO in 1949.
The present is a linear extrapolation in amplitude and scope, necessitated by the ongoing processes of the lateral transcendences of “The Soviet Union” by the Russian Federation’s networks.
He meant the real command centers like the Pentagon and others in the Western countries.
We only need to look at what happened to Grozny to see what is possible when the Russians get serious.
And now two decades later their weapons and gear are vastly greater.
Thank you for your reports, Mr. Johnson. So little real analysis is available. I see NATO fracturing shortly. Turkey will probably be the first to leave. I don’t want this to escalate to a full blown world war. I have a West Pointer in the family…a green 2nd Lieutenant.
Jams O'Donnell says
Putin has said that Turkey will not, despite its declared interest, be allowed to join the SCO as long as it is a member of NATO. If the EU economy goes down the tubes, as is likely, then there is nothing for Turkey in the EU or NATO. So – leave NATO – join SCO becomes very attractive, especially as the US has been trying to corral Turkey into doing as it is told, even against its own interests.
I can see no prospect of NATO disbanding unless America is smashed and it’s terms of surrender.
NATO is not important to the US. Other alliances are more important.
Russia or the Soviet Union has always ignored human greed. It made the Soviet Union collapse, believing that NATO would not expand to the east, and believing that the Ukraine war was negotiable. If Russia loses, it means that they have neglected the greed of the West too much.
Marcos Santos says
Even if Europe had the industrial base, without adequate supplies of oil and gas, you can’t manufacture anything. Even if you can build it, you can’t distribute it and deliver it without fuel too.
very good points. Logistics ! such a complex problem.
Randy Starkey says
The miscalculations of the U.S. and Western European leaders are mind boggling.
There is no way more western weapons could arrive quickly enough to change the outcome of this lopsided war.
I cannot believe the utter foolishness of the West in trying to go “all in” in a fight neither Ukraine nor NATO can win. It is such a tragic sacrifice of human life to keep throwing troops into this mindless slaughter.
Top Gum says
Honestly, what else can they do? They have hope that they might win something here. They started that whole mess and they will and do double down now. Otherwise they would admit defeat and that is not an option. Bullying the world to “cancel” Russia did not work. But that did not stop them. They will do as much damage, without really escalating this thing to WW3, as they can. It is not them dying in the trenches. They found themselves some useful idiots and they are pretty happy with that I guess. People in the west are not so concerned with what is happening there too. I don’t see people taking it to the streets. Only occasionally here and there. That is the only thing that would really change something in my opinion. But lets wait and see how the EU will survive coming winter. That might change things around.
Just as Ukraine had 8 years to plan and construct the fortifications in Donbass, Russia also had the same time to think through all the ramifications of various scenarios. The Russian education system encourages independent thinkng and initiative while the Western education system is all about brainwashing and teaching compliance with the system. The quality of Russian intellect is therefore way better than the Western intellect. It is therefore a safe bet that one of the scenarios the military planners evaluated would be a continued Westen military equipment supply to Ukraine. They would have looked at both the pros and cons. Finding the Achillies heel of the Western military “preparedness”, they would set about ensuring a steady drain of the Western equipment. This could explain the leisurely pace of the SMO and offers of negotiations couched in language guaranteed to rile the Ukrainions and neocon polititians.
Once the four baby bears are safely under Mama’s protections, the Papa bear, Russian regular military, would let out a roar. With winter favouring Russian military and demonstrable threats to energy infrastructure in the heart of Banderastan, Russia would be in a position to force Ukraine into a rapidly worsening intolerable condition where it would be forced to give up its territories in exchange for being allowed to survive the winter. Russia could warn that the cost of delay in suing for peace would be acceleration of the daily destruction rate of Ukrainian critical civil infrastructure. After all, the common Ukrainian folks are willing participants in propagating the narrative of Russians being subhumans. It is time they felt the pain they have been inflicting on their former countryfolk.
Excellent analysis, thanks, Larry.
Although perhaps serendipity, the strategy has created the optimum conditions to reach where we are now – and the US de-industrialization is no secret. For example, continuing to supply energy to Europe lulled a false sense of security during the summer when energy is not as critical – whereas the winter is a massive pain point. And I am sure Russia knew how fragile US weapons are – they spent 10 years building solutions, while the US built the F-35 boondoggle and the littoral combat ship – fantastically profitable, and useless against a peer.
To schedule such a referendum in the US would take months – I am sure the plan was developed several or more months ago.
Brad Patton says
The pound is lowest in its history of 300 years = 1 dollar. The Euro = 95 cents lowest is 20 years. There is only one currency in the world that has gone the other way. One dollar now gets you only 59 rubles this morning — it was 78 before the SMO.
How is that possible!!! Yale recently claimed that the Russian economy has disintegrated.
At a boy Jake Sullivan and Blinken those sanctions are really working well but on Europe not Russia.
tom welsh says
As history began before 1970, the sterling-dollar exchange rate has been far higher than 2. At the time of the American Civil War, it spiked briefly as high as 10. From about 1820 until the 1930s the rate was a steady 5 or so. In the 1940s this reduced to about 4, and the pound has steadily lost value since.
My parents lived, for a time, in a world where a pound bought 5 dollars.
another steve says
If the game was a quiz show it would answer a couple of questions but leave a lot more unanswered. Such as:
Concerns over the welfare of Russian speakers in the rest of Ukraine.
A hostile Ukrainian government and people that the invasion, despite Putin’s go softly approach, has only entrenched.
It seems a real mess.
I heard Col. Doug Macgregor (Retired) say it looks like the next move is Odessa. When you don’t know how to end something I guess you keep going.
Canuck Pipes says
‘Another Steve’, you do not know the Russian end game? I do not!
When you speak of leaving the Russian-speaking people in Ukraine to the reprisal of the Ukrainian government and citizens of non-Russian heritage, are you in agreement with the status quo from 2014 to Sept 2022?
As per going to Odessa, why not landlock former Ukraine and strategically control the north of the Black Sea. Not sure Turkey would want this, but it is in Russia’s best interest.
As per his go softly approach, why would you not give it a chance? “Economy of Force” is a principle of Warfare.
Do yourself a favour and stop listening to Keane and his clowns. Remember Petraeus only had three options: Status quo, Drawn down or Surge. He chose Surge, and people think he is a world-class strategist. Dang, he had a 33% chance of getting it right.
john beasley says
It seems to me the United States has been taken over by corporations and oligarchs. They have taken possession of the US assets and inventions and technical designs that were paid for by the US government, i.e. the people. The problem, for them, seems to be how do they get away with all these possessions that they have stolen? Do they ship all the wealth to Asia and fund a new society? Do they poison the food, air, water and kill off the population? Do they provoke a nuclear attack and thereby end the Republic? That seems to be the point we are at, how do these corporations and oligarchs get “clear title” to everything they have stolen?
Cris from Caracas says
That’s why I think we’re at the most dangerous point in history….bunch of sociopaths at the helm, that will not give up power in November or any other “elections”….
Maybe they’ll go to those bunkers we always hear about right before they push the button, and fulfill their goal of depopulation….and blame it on Russia….
Bet you there’s enough Champagne, sushi, foie grass, canapés, and probably beautiful young things stashed there just waiting for them….
“Why? To be in position for the referendum”
Well “war” is not restricted to things that go bang, “revolutions” are not restricted to fixed points or constant colours.
As Mr. Gogol advised, it is unwise to hold onto flying troikas too tightly, and the Inspector General is a self-illusion.
It is clear that there is no going back. The decision on partial mobilization shows that Putin wants to finish the job at the cost of losing the popularity he has enjoyed so far among the Russian people.
No such cost. Partial mobilization comes at the time when 4 Ukraine oblasts join Russia. So morale is sky-high. Take note that 300k people are only fraction for Russian reserve of more than 20 million. So really small percent is affected and they are not going into meat grinder but to defend newly acquired territories. Loss of popularity is narrative western media is trying to push.
Jack Gordon says
I’ve seen no evidence that Putin is losing popularity if we ignore the pages of Western news rags or the studios of Western television companies. It’s astonishing how well -informed one can become by avoiding both those institutions of darkness.
Lennart Mogren says
Sabotaging NordStream1 and NordStream2 is the final nail in German coffin. No turning back.
Top Gum says
Someone is obviously making sure, Germany won’t buckle in the spring 2023. And just when the new pipeline from Norway got operational. Was it the US/UK or the Poles?
But you are right. That is only a problem for Germany. Poland has the upper hand now when it comes to gas-issues. Will the Poles play nicely or blackmail Germany whenever they see it handy?
And now “leaks” in the Nordstream pipelines – both of them.
This is the US openly declaring war on Europe.
Interesting times ahead……
Good job the ‘Baltic Pipe’ effectively came online today. Not that it will help in any way.
In other news, small mini sub for sale.
One careful owner, low hours, great for weekend fun.
Offers to Andrei’s Tugboat & Watermelon Service.
A Modest Proposal
No, I’m not suggesting an outrageous course of action as did Swift. Instead, I’m suggesting a path that would stop the war and lead to the minimal loss of life.
Hit Them Where It Hurts
Without a doubt, the Neocons are the source and genesis for this war. But they have a soft underbelly: their iternal love and allegiance to Israel. If Putin would meet the shipment of weapons to the freedom fighters of Ukraine with a threat of shipments of weapons to the freedom fighters of Hamas, then I suspect the weapons flow would stop and negotiations commence.
another steve says
I would suggest neo-liberals are the bigger villain.
Although it’s hard to keep up with all the labels. One thing’s for sure; they both suck.
A supporting document for my thesis from another ex-CIA analyst
James Elsener says
The craziness of this conflict is reflected fully by the fact that the top destination of the Euro-wide coach travel system Flixbus is Kiev.
Seats on coaches from Kiev and other cities in Ukraine to European cities are fully booked for the coming months.
And to everyone’s surprise coaches returning from these places to Ukraine are fully booked too.
Ukrainians are travelling to the West and back at ever increasing numbers.
Nope, nothing surprising here:
It’s a scam run by sly Ukrainian citizens to grift social security payments in the EU, primarily Germany.
Here’s how it works:
1. you register with a Ukrainian passport as a ‘war refugee’ in Germany, e.g. in Berlin
–> Germany’s social security payment is payed to you with no questions asked and no strings attached
–> a single unmarried person will receive 449,-€ per month
2. you fake a rental agreement for your stay in Germany for a fake rental flat, as you’re allegedly living in Germany being a war refugee
–> a single unmarried person will receive 364,50€ per month for his rental flat
3. you fake the heating costs for your fake rental flat
–> you’ll receive approximately 1,-€ per month per square meter (let’s assume 35,-€ per month for a 35 m² flat)
A single person will receive ~ 850,-€ per month of social security payments with no strings attached and barely any verification and inspection if you’re factually living in Germany.
Just mentino the magic word ‘Ukraine’.
In my estimation, each ‘fake war refugee’ needs to invest 250-350 € per month for:
1. ‘Bus’ tickets to travel once per month from Ukraine to Germany and back to ‘confirm’ your presence in Germany
2. commission payments for those people facilitating the fraud (guidance/counsel, fake rental papers, etc.).
Nevertheless, as a fake war refugee you’re earning ~500,-€ for a 2-4 day bus trip from Ukraine to Germany and back. Afaik, with 500,-€ you can live comfortably in Ukraine.
I have a question.
I can follow the arguments and I find the analysis spot on and plausible. I have been following the pranks of Mr. Biden over the last few months and have seen his performance when he was definitely lost in time and space.
So my question is: who runs the place? I cannot see him in the Oval Office getting his mind around the nitty-gritty of the current problems. Could it be that Mrs. Harris is pulling the puppeteer`s strings. You hear nothing from that corner and that looks funny to me.
Or could it be she is waiting for Biden`s collapse so she can take over “unscathed” so to speak. A possible scenario could be, as there is no way out for Biden, he would be taken out for health reasons and she would be able to negotiate a withdrawal and a reset.
What do you think?
I don’t think she is running anything. She is an abrasive mediocrity who even drives away senior staff drawn from her own side’s true believers. She is in WAY over her head and is just intelligent enough to know it.
I think the ugly reality is that there is no one center of power calling the shots. Those who control Biden’s puppet strings are a power node, but it is clear that there are other nodes, like the State Department globalists, who simply do whatever they want because there is no effective executive branch oversight or herd wrangling of the bureaucracy. Executive branch apparatchiks’ efforts to ignore and undermine President Trump have, I think, terminally damaged the institutional culture. Chain of command is for suckers, IF you can get away with it. Biden and his controllers certainly are not in a position to rein anyone in.
This leads to the question of with whom exactly do the Russians think they are going to negotiate peace. European governments are client states of the Globalist American Empire and thus are irrelevant unless they take the step of expelling the GAE from their soil.
I think the Russians don’t expect to negotiate with anyone, at least in the short term. My guess is that they will finish their referendum and legal ingestion of the Donbass and give the Ukrainians a very public and generous offer to climb down from their madness, but knowing full well that the Ukrainians are not a sovereign actor and could not take it even if they wanted to. The Ukrainians will then murder Russian Federation citizens on Russian Federation soil and it will be ‘next stop! Odessa!’ with just cause for war completely on their side. It doesn’t matter what either proles or corporate would-be aristocrats in the West think is valid, but what Russia’s trade partners think.
I think that, in the end if they HAVE to, they will make a no-man’s land extending from their borders with depth equal to the range of whatever missiles keep getting fired at their people. Moreover, I think that if it turns into a general war their PGM targeting will extend beyond the usual military and political authority nodes, but directly target the bankster set who are power behind authority in the GAE.
I was delighted to hear Tucker Carlson talk about fake democracy yesterday. It’s what happens when power no longer resides in institutions of authority. Our US Congress, for example, has almost no power. They are puppets (preselected for pliability) dancing on strings made of money. Legislation is developed elsewhere and given to legislators to implement along with fat stacks of cash.
That’s why I think the Russians will directly attack power instead of authority. Personnel in authority are servants and will just be replaced. However, if the power nodes are removed maybe authority will find itself with both responsibility and decision making freedom. Perhaps the Russians could negotiate directly with the internationalist banksters, but even then they are highly heterogenous. Is there any one faction that could make a deal stick? It’s a clown world. We’re going to find out.
More like the Nuland woman……….Biden is just an empty suit of clothes. The Nuland arranged all this in 2014 at euromaidan. On instruction of course. Look in the direction of the Clinton.
Larry, you wrote that “Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.” Col. Macgregor has mentioned this same thing – the west’s insane idea of a ‘limited’ nuclear war. But if the west continues their insane policies, then … although the Brits have 4 nuclear-armed subs, it’s the French that have the nuclear-war capability of continental Europe. Are the French prepared to be destroyed in a limited nuclear conflict? Are the French the next sacrificial lambs? Any thoughts?
Larry Johnson says
I think the talk and threats are empty. Reality is going to intrude and destroy their fantasies. The nukes are symbolic but not practical, especially given Russia’s robust ABM system.
Oscar de Caracas says
Food stocks in Ukraine is very critical and is causing street fights for food now (The Guardian).
This winter can be very cruel for the Ukrainians and cause an absolute social collapse due to hunger if Zelensky does not solve that problem (which he will not) Then we will have to wait and see how the Ukrainian soldiers will fight for a regime that starves them .
Without Diesel the machines don’t move but without food absolutely nothing moves.
One such observer appears here in one of Patrick Lancaster’s videos:
Patrick has been reporting on the ground in the Donbass since 2014 and he talks to all sorts of people, shows wreckage and is generally ignored in Western media which is a real shame because this is the sort of investigative on the ground reporting journalists should be doing
Oblomovka daydream says
“I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.”
The notion of ‘pure serendipity’ seems unconvincing to me. What is happening in the Ukraine at present is the succumbing of the Western logistics of sustaining a war to the Russian logistics of war. It is rather weird to grab inside this clash of logistics all of a sudden to ‘pure serendipity’ as a viable explanation. Instead I would rather opt for the Hegelian concept of ‘List der Vernunft’ (the cunning of Reason). Within Hegels systematic thinking the concept of ‘List der Vernunft’ is a culmination of rational (- translated in military terms: logistic -) thinking, where rational thinking transforms into the ‘objective Spirit’. Within Hegels systematic thinking there exists no jump into ‘pure serendipity’. Perhaps the way how the Russian army is organising its logistics is still showing the ‘deep state’ influence of Hegels philosophy (just as Von Clausewitz is still exerting his influence over Russian war tactics & strategy). Russia is winning, because they are aware of the Spirit’s guile.
for some reason I never believed that Russia was that interested in Kharkov oblast. I don’t know why I thought this
possibly there isn’t enough of a critical mass of pro Russian civilians?
possibly they will return their attention to Kharkov in the future maybe this won’t be militarily.
likewise Odessa, I think the Russians will certainly take the city but once again not necessarily by military means.
I also see us military activity in Poland. maybe this will be a Polish US drive south to protect western Ukraine from a fictitious Russian advance into these parts thereby claiming some sort of victory.
who knows, things are happening so fast it’s impossible to keep up
“… NATO will have a limited capacity to respond. Why?”
Another factor is will to fight. Who will go die to murder Christian people on the other side of the planet for the heathen and atheist trash of the New York City, Washington DC, Hollywood Axis of Evil? Those who are willing should find eternity on the steppe, so they don’t plague us here at home.
“Russia has the minerals, material and qualified personnel …”
This is what happens when you have a real country, not an open borders crony-cartel corporate trade zone, and the government actually invests in its people and civilization instead of investing in their replacement.
I am so impressed at how the Russians have gone about this, from Day 1.
They seem to be operating from a detailed, very well thought out plan and timeline. Their ability to not only predict but then plan for the western sanctions was in itself quite astonishing.
They do not care one bit about western propaganda. It seems immaterial to them. They are operating from genuine strength, and have complete control of the momentum if events.
As opposed to the west, which is like a rabbit caught in the headlights, making plans on the run, pushing out more and more nonsense propaganda. It seems that they are genuinely clueless.
And winter is coming. Panic time.
Perhaps, but this could also be a fortuitous interpretation of events. Scott Ritter suggests that the Ukrainian victory in the north was the result of new weaponsh, NATO training and tactics combined with Western intelligence determining that the region was poorly manned and ripe for exploitation. There is a lot of front line and not all that many troops. But few people know for sure.
Russians are chess-players……………..
I read that both Nordstream I and II are completely down, and sabotage is suspected. Is it possible that Germany was preparing to fold on sanctions in return for gas, and certain…entities…wanted to make sure that reopening those pipelines was not an option?
It will not be difficult to verify if it is sabotage. If it does turn out to be what everyone with a functioning brain cell suspects, the list of plausible culprits is one line long, and ‘we’ are at the top of that list. Our capabilities in this area are well known to naval people all over the world. It will be interesting to see if the affected countries can pull together surveillance records and identify the platform responsible. The obvious and most likely would be one of our submarines, but it doesn’t have to be.
Attacking the energy infrastructure of ostensible allies with looming shortages right before winter is the kind of thing that SHOULD prompt other countries to evict our embassy and end relations until there is regime change in Washington DC. The mind boggles at the desperate arrogant lawlessness of these globalist creatures.
Watch the US rushing to find evidence of Russian sabotage on the sea floor……………..Uss Kearsage is in the vicinity of Bornholm with a small squadron……….
bob sykes says
This morning we learn that Nord Stream I and II have both been sabotaged. The suspects are the US and/or Poland. Poland is more likely, but it would need American approval.
This means there is no possibility of getting Russian gas to Germany and the rest of the EU for at least several month to a couple of years, depending on the extent of the damage.
South Stream/Turkey is still running, but its capacity cannot replace NS I and II, and it terminates in Hungary.
Stored gas is designed to meet the peak demand above the average. It cannot meet the total demand unless Russian gas continues to be delivered. There will be a massive economic disaster in the EU this winter.
Interesting why you suggest Poland. I know recently they wanted German reparations for WW2 (as if the large junk of Germany given to Poland to compensate for the large region annexed by Stalin was not sufficient: especially since the NKVD committed many of the Polish atrocities that were blamed on Germany. Not to mention the mass murder of Germans during their resettlement after the war).
A weaker Germany would make reparations more unlikely even though they have about zero chance of occurring.
But what is your reasoning? Just curious .
Plain and simple .. war on a whim..
Nothing is thought through IMO from the cumulative West , just knee jerk military and political actions with thought through reactions in reply from RF and the cumulative deaths and carnage (circa 110K) and mayhem in good old Ukraine ramps up day upon day.All this at cost to you and i to boot!
There is an early Autumn chill in the air already here in the U.K and those hazy lazy crazy days of summer are now sadly fading along with the resolve and the flag waving for Ukraine.
The proxy war is over. It’s now either nuclear war or Ukraine surrender.
One thing is becoming increasingly clear – if the West wants to save itself, it needs to start regulating “journalism”. There is a whole class of parasites, pardon, “journalists”, spouting lies/inciting hatred/justifying prolonging the conflict under the guise of news and facts. This is the basic problem we are facing, on one side we are protecting freedom of speech but on the other side the well has been poisoned with the likes of CNN and the swath of “military analysts” claiming all is going well for Ukraine. Then there is also all the “moral outrage” at everything pragmatic that a Western politician would want to do to end the conflict. Let’s face it – the collective West has shot itself in the foot and this is why we may be headed to nuclear conflict even though we know we cannot win, just like EU is destroying its own economy knowing it cannot win.
Canuck Pipes says
A prime example of what you state, Oddo, was Keane stating that the Referendums resulted from the Kharkiv withdrawal (which was not a crushing Uk victory – just some FYI Keane). He is off his rocker to believe that the organization of an election was a result of only a few weeks or a month of prep. But hey, if the money is good and Fox does not mind departing with it-fill your boots.
The political general is probably not too familiar with trading time and space for lives and a better tactical situation, or he is a liar. Not sure which.
Simply Curious says
British pound is hovering around $1.07 currently. Never below $, at least not yet. Chart was flipped.
i do not understand why would English think-tank for military-political domain be named RUSI. “Rusi” is how Russians call themselves – in Russian. And some other Slavic people too.
Funny, British institute named RUSI……
Both Nordstream pipelines just blew in 3 places.
This is the answer to Swedish, Italian elections.
Normally we just betray our allies.
Going to war with our allies a true coup de main.
Even Napoleon never did that!
TOTALLY AWESOME DUDES.
Do you guys think that taking Mykolaiv, Odessa and on to Transnistria is too much of a statement by RUS?
i.e. seen as too aggressive from the EUR perspective.
I think Odessa would be an interesting place to carve out a peace agreement, while still giving UKR a lifeline economically.
essentially, if Mykolaiv-Odessa-Transnistria is taken, RUS would landlock UKR to almost just do its bidding because with the 4 oblasts and 80-90% of UKR’s GDP joining RUS, UKR has almost nothing economically left internally.
Take away the port city and UKR almost has to start from scratch.
And yes, NATO has to stop this nonsense.
Canuck Pipes says
If you had asked this question three months ago, I would agree, do not take Odessa and use it as a “good faith bargaining chip.” Ask me today, and I will give you a different answer. The Ukrainians have Boris to thank for the potential loss of Odessa. An excellent chess piece to move when talks do commence. If the people of Ukraine had truly understood the west uses other nations for their own myopic foreign policy adventures, they would have strove to be neutral. Here’s looking at you, kid! (Ukraine).
I dont get u ppl. U r intoxicated. Tho i m anti-imperialist andUS greatest enemy, i still am not blind. Russia started war when it was least expected by west and so were his soldiers uninformed. It had initial tactical successes but faced logistics problem as ever. but thats not what i am here to teach.
what i m here to say is this:
IF Russia stops military operation in Donbas and doesnt carry forward attacks, that will mean Russia failed to achieve its objective of demilitarization and denazification. It has failed to stop Ukraine from entering Nato or EU for that matter. It has failed to protect its territory from western side,the flatland, where it has been attacked continuously for last 500 years. Napoleon attacked from here so did Hitler.
This is what u all tend to ignore. i mean stand for justice, against the oppressive,imperialist America but dont be blinded to the reality.
I keep reading that “General Winter” is at the door to help the Russian side. Against Napoleon or Hitler, this was the case However, Ukrainians are not living in the tropics. Can someone explain to me how winter favours the Russian side? It looks to me like an equal impediment for both sides.
The side that can maintain logistics has the advantage: hot food, fuel to warm tents/bunkers, COFFEE. Camouflage can’t hide you from drone-mounted infrared sensors on a field of snow. Do the Ukrainians even have winter kit prepositioned and accessible? It is not optional in a real winter. It’s not a deficiency that is going to be overcome with will. If they don’t they are finished.
And call me too much of a dove, but ultimately- wars end only if they are negotiated.
I see a good chance to really come to an interim settlement
a) the West is still smarting from their hollow victory in Kharkov- they still have some support at home. this could be enough for the US mid-terms
b) with the referendums at this juncture, could RUS be sending a signal that “hey, I’m happy with these 4 oblasts and 90% of UKR GDP…. if i landlock the country, the whole Black Sea is virtually mine, you guys sure?”
c) With the partial mobilization, onset of winter and a sliding economy- NATO/EU must surely realize they cannot sustain this fight without incurring significant and irreversible costs.
d) RUS is still calling this an SMO- as long as NATO does not persistently invade RUS, war is not yet declared. the ball is in NATO’s court.
because if this is not enough, then the next phase is going to be much bloodier if RUS does decide to go offensive after the 4 new oblasts are taken….
Bob Jackson says
Wars have to be ended by negotiation, true.
Which is what Russia did in 2015.
The Ukrainians were defeated. Russia said, just give the Russian territories the freedom to live their lives in peace and don’t attack them; we’ll keep out of it, and France and Germany will supervise the transition.
Who can Russia negotiate with now?
I see your point.
Don’t lose faith!
Call me silly, but it looks like RUS’ soft approach early that allowed UKRs to flee the country has saved plenty of lives and also inadvertently enabled the referendums to be clearer and cleaner – those who stayed are likely to vote to join RUS.
Hopefully the folks who fled can now return to their homes (the 4 oblasts), which should be safer….
I wonder if referendums is a modern day means to switch allegiances without much less bloodshed compared to the past…
First it was Napoleon, than Nazi Germany that were defeated by the not so secret Russian weapon, winter. Now, for the third time and on demand by the west, it will be unleashed, except this time it is the civilian population that will bear the cost. What exactly do they teach in military schools in the west? By the way, Germany was also running out of fuel at the end of the war, no lesson learned there either.
“Ukrainian military setbacks as winter sets in, the foundation of NATO unity vis-a-vis Ukraine, is likely to crack”
Exactly why USA cracked NS1 and NS2 pipes. Gives EU no choice but to continue unity and NATO support because reproachment for Russian Gas is made impossible now. Hell, Ukraine might even get those leopard tanks now Germany didnt want to send.
Goran Kamber says
What will be if, after a successful referendum, it is understood in the West that they will lose in case that they continue this way (only suport-weponizing) and after that, they decide to engage in the Syrian scenario, to bring forces in the area of Odessa at the invitation of Kiev to ensure “peace” ( which they are most interested in).
NOT GONNA HAPPEN. EU is aligned with US foreign policy and national interests. Just as Sun Tzu mentioned, longer the war lesser the chance to win, so US wants the war to prolong to bleed Rus.
Curt Nichols says
With the US sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline, this is perfect timing. Go ahead and shut the taps to Ukraine. End all gas flow to Europe. It is starting to get cold. If Hungary plays nice? Supply them. And that is the rule. If you are nice to me. I am nice to you. These terrorist Nazi attacks will now be an attack on Russia after the referendum. Time to unleash the dogs.
EU threatens the people monitoring the referendum. Can’t have anyone validating the legitimacy of the outcome.
1917 message sent.
“Send reinforcements, we are going to advance”.
Received as “send three and fourpence, we are going to a dance”.
2022 message sent.
“No don’t stream, need blow and crack pipe”.
OT, but it appears that both of the big Underwater Gas Pipelines from Russia to Germany/Netherlands have been Sabotaged. A Swedish Geologist said that the Seismic Indications were clearly Underwater Explosives. while these Pipelines were already ‘Turned Off’ Due to Russian ‘sanctions’ against Europistan, the Lines were Pressurized.
Now they are Flooded, and Repairs will be “Complicated”.
Looks a lot like the FUSSA/Zionist Occupation Government making good on its plans to Destroy the Economies of the European Nations, for (((their))) Benefit.
Of course the Nuland/Obama gambit will be doubled-down-on until we are at open war with Russia.
Carlton Meyer says
The logical step is for Russia to destroy every road and rail bridge and even every culvert in Western Ukraine, then drop aerial mines on them and Spetnaz commando teams nearby to shoot any repairmen. Cut off Ukraine from everything and they’ll be forced to concede in a month.
SteveM: The US sabotaging the pipeline makes sense to me, because the Biden mis-administration has so utterly boxed itself in with “Russia Russia Russia” that it must perpetuate the fighting in Ukraine at all costs. This includes tanking the U.S. and European economies.
Steve noel says
Yeah true but the president usually stops the crazies not this one we are in deep shit
Alex Thrace says
Ammunition for howitzer has been declared to be racist, production halted while a team from UCLA convenes, have been exchanging preferred pronouns for the past week but will get down to business as soon as they can.
The 2nd meeting was canceled because the team felt not having rainbow sprinkles on their donuts was exclusionary.
The sprinkle factory however had to close due to rolling blackouts and is currently relocating to Texas.
At the root of all problems is the groups of financial terrorists in Davos, New York and Washington D.C. (aka Drooling Carnivores). They should be swept off as a first step to World Peace.
My Comment says
Isn’t it likely that things will get far worse for the republics before Russia acts? All evidence suggests Putin doesn’t want Russia to be aggressive and wage war on the Ukraine. Yeah, maybe he has a plan to wait until the Republics are part of Russia but maybe he doesn’t. Maybe now he just wants to see if Ukraine will back off and he can quit the military efforts. I have no idea but I have seen no evidence that Putin wants to be aggressive.
If Russia essentially stops the forward momentum now and guards the republics that will embolden Ukraine and their US masters who seem to have have already convinced themselves of their own propaganda. That will mean some brutal shelling of the republics before Russia reluctantly reacts
“Isn’t it likely that things will get far worse for the republics before Russia acts?”
No. It is on the way.
From what I understand the decision has been made.
The paperwork needs to be done first, I’s dotted and T’s crossed.
Then if Russia is attacked by another Country it is a whole new day.
Response time will be almost instant (or opportunistic if the intel is hot).
HMS Terror says
FWIW, I called it back in early summer that one reason RU was slow-walking the “invasion” and leaving transport networks intact was so that NATO could deliver its war materiel to the scrap yards they’d set up in East & South UA.
It’s a lot easier to destroy it where your logistics are able to deliver at will and a minimum of personnel can do the job as a routine matter than to fight your way to Berlin or Paris to destroy it.
If Russia enjoyed escalation dominance prior to Feb, 2022, it now enjoys escalation supremacy. The West simply cannot prosecute an intense, protracted war in the foreseeable future.
It’s relegated itself to the two ends of the conflict spectrum. Either sabotage such as blowing up pipelines at the low end, Or launch nukes at the extreme end. There’s little in between, and the West is both target rich and vulnerable at both ends as well.
Let’s hope they stick to sabotage.
My assumption is that Russia hoped this would be a relatively quick, regional conflict settled at a table with the US backing off somewhat and Ukraine recognizing DLPR plus crimea. Best case scenario: Ukrainian people or army throw the US and neo-Nazis out. I figure russia did fear sanctions, lined up friends and prepared.
It was a tarbaby trap set for Russia. If Russia had just done what the US would have done (so what it expected Russia to do), then Russia is in an Iraq type insurgency with sanctions and an angry population. Except Biden managed to get the tarbaby stick to us, going all in on badly planned/executed sanctions which nobody bothered to confirm would be upheld globally. Then a bunch of stupid statements about Ukraine winning and destroying Russia that are hard to back down from. So now the real quagmire is for us again. Shit’s going sideways and the people in charge are panicking and getting desperate.
Russia is simply taking what’s given and is disarming NATO because NATO insists. I’m no genius, but I’ve been watching US foreign policy closely for 23+ years. It’s all the same people still and they refuse to learn from their mistakes. They’ve created a historical moment far, far too big for their abilities. And they believe their own bullshit.
I came to Kosovo in 2000 just 3 months after the NATO bombing stopped and my humanitarian organization worked there for 4 years. I understand perfectly what happened there. The West backed the KLA separatists/freedom fighters (aka terrorists), and bombed Serbia forces in Kosovo as well as Serbia proper until NATO could occupy Kosovo with its KFOR units, finally setting up a UN mandated administration (UNMIK). Then the US and its allies unitedly recognized Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, while Russia, China, and a majority of other countries did not. The double standard is blatantly obvious now when the Donbass wants to do the same. Kosovo had NO referendum, much less one that was overseen by foreign monitors. Now Serbia is being severely presured by the EU to let go of Kosovo if they want any hope of eventually joining the block, and the US is livid that Serbia refuses to join the sanctions regime against Russia, when Russia was the only country that stood by them in 1999 when they were being bombed by NATO.
Jeff the Beast says
Stupid bullshit talking…this fake referenda change exactly nothing…fascist RuSSia and the Kremlin mafia are going to loose this WAR…
LOL off you go troll.
just saying says
The only loose thing here is your straitjacket.
what are you smoking?
Christopher Phillips says
Former C.I.A. officer and writer, Philip Giraldi, says it best: Worldwide Jewry started this war in Ukraine. Indeed, if not for all of the Jewish advisors surrounding the illegitimate, senile, Zionist Biden, this war in Ukraine could have been avoided.
There is one caveat in your arguments, Larry: “The west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine”. Is a national government that has been acting with insanity for over two years now going to reject this option? Team Biden seems to have absolutely no reverse gear. Look at Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and now, what is almost certainly the US’s sabotage of NS1. This is clearly a government that has no sense of reality and is capable of anything.
Conspiracy Realist says
The only way to take down the Deep State in the US is to paralyze and neutralize NATO and China. The UN becomes essentially ineffective without these two bodies functioning. With NATO at odds with Russia and the economic collapse in China who is left to save the DS in the US when the take down occurs? Not the UN, not Canada, just the imported military age men imported by the DS and Dems. Red blooded Americans have a fighting chance against these sorts, but would not be able to withstand those in blue helmets and white military MRAPS. These events have to happen first…
“I do not know if this was the Russian plan from the outset–i.e., conduct operations that would create a de facto disarmament of the United States and Europe–or if this is pure serendipity. Regardless, the west has no viable options, short of nuclear war, of defeating Russia in Ukraine.”
I’d offer that Putin watched the US bully smaller nations…and fair no better than the former USSR did in Afghanistan…then “stretched his legs” going into Syria to gage US response/strength…then executed his SMO plan to offer aid to the Donbass.
Here’s the kicker: the US has how many…600+ OCONUS bases? 700? I’ve always felt these were outposts…like US Federal Reserve branches…employing locals, paying in US Reserve Notes. So how are they going to convert to this “electronic” digital money and keep these bases open? How is the CIA going to receive the drug monies if it is all traceable?
If I was Russia? My response to the attack on the pipeline would be this: Offer a “3000 Ruble Gold Certificate” (US $50) and a “1500 Ruble Silver certificate” (US $25) and initially set the price of the gold at $2500/oz…the silver at $100/oz.
They kill your pipeline? You doom their “Digital wetdream.”
Hi Larry, always enjoy the artikels. One thing is still on my mind: is there a connection between leaving Afghanistan in a rush and the start of events in Ukraine? Let’s say an exposed flank for RU to abuse?
Olivier Sauvage says
“The planning for this had been in the works for at least a month, maybe longer.” I dare to contradict and say that it was in the planning ever since the introduction of the Ruble, the granting of Russian passports and all other signs of state identification and similar measures taken a few months back after the fall of Mariupol. Why would otherwise the Russian government grant Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens and start re-building programs in these territories? The take-over was carefully planned as clearly indicated in the chain of events and IT WAS THE FIRST MAJOR POLITICAL GOAL OF THE WHOLE SMO.