Following up on my last piece about the situation on the ground in Ukraine, I encourage you to watch Brian Berletic’s latest video. He puts the logistics picture into proper perspective. For a young guy he is a wise head.
The following video shows you the “success” of the Ukrainian offensive. Pay close attention to the number of large cities they are capturing.
Cities? Nope. None. Rolling across wide open plains represents a feel good moment, but this territory is not defensible once Russia decides to counter attack because Ukraine does not have the air power and artillery fires to withstand a concentrated attack. Russia, however, has the air capability, tanks, artillery and rockets to sustain an attack once they decide to move.
It appears to me that Russia is baiting Ukraine to take territory and then face the task of trying to take a city Russia holds, such as Kherson. If Ukaine wishes to oust Russia from Kherson it will have to mass forces necessary to conduct the block to block fighting that Russia did when it captured Mariupol. Remember that?
Even if this is not a Russian plan (i.e., baiting the Ukrainians) the outcome will be the same. Ukraine will have to conduct a frontal assault on the city of Kherson and, in order to do this, will have to mass troops and equipment that will be easy targets for Russian artillery, missiles and bombs. Ukraine has no military power to counter what Russia can unleash. So, if your panties are in a knot over “Russia losing territory”, I suggest you take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down.
Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure. Why? This is essential in order to conduct coordinated maneuver warfare, which is what Russia is expected to unleash once its forces are properly manned and in position.
Important to remember that all of the military action on the ground in Ukraine will be a sideshow compared to the economic warfare that will wrack Europe. The United States and Europe got a big bucket of cold water poured over their heads today with OPEC+’s announcement that they will cut production by two million barrels of oil. No matter how much lipstick Biden and Blinken try to put on this pig, OPEC+’s message to the west is clear–fuck off! If foreigners really believed that Russia was getting its ass handed to it, do you think the OPEC nations would stick their neck out and adopt a policy that helps Russia? I don’t.
In the words of Alex, “Real Horrorshow.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YeoyizACMw
All it would have taken for the USA to be energy independent was for Biden not to touch a thing post election.
Still trying to find out where they find people like we have in the upper echelons of the USA – is there a special lobotomizing program in some secret college basement?
I’m not even going to mention how the sanctions shut down my engineering business in central Asia…
The Un-united States of America (USA) has not been Energy Independent since 1977. Good luck on that one? Which us why Biden crawled in front of MBS and BEGGED for Saudi Arabia to pump more oil. Yesterdays announcement of a DECREASE of oil from OPEC+ was a giant FU to USA & giant concession to Russia. Plus yesterday Bulgaria (EU Country) announced that it would continue to import Russian Gasoline and Diesel to the end of 2024. (In other words forever). And also a day or two ago Hungary (a NATO & EU MEMBER) stated that it saw no reason to consider a fast track NATO Application for (what’s left of) Ukraine. The EU continues to disintegrate. And all the while Russia patiently builds up its reserves to dismantle NATO in Ukraine. And war criminal Elensky keeps sacrificing thousands of civilian conscripts into the meat grinder destroying the youth and the future of Ukraine for Western Imperialism as Pelosi said so herself. It’s so so sad.
Barry Sheridan says
Yes your right, it really is tragic to see Ukraine’s men being sacrificed for western ambitions.
While you are technically correct, we have (had?) enough oil pumping domestically and potential imports via pipeline that we could have been – until Biden, ESG madness and other things crashed into us. If you look around, there is NO energy policy here – just Biden emptying the SPR and taking a cut, and then refilling it during record high prices and taking another cut. If you look at Biden policies across the board as moves made by Tony Soprano, then your vision will be more accurate.
Anything moving to Ukraine produces a cut for Biden Inc., and this has been decades in the making. Biden Inc. is the driver of most American policy at this point, both domestic (DOJ, FBI, DSHS, etc.) and international (CIA, NSA). With the Biden Inc. network, Trump didn’t stand a chance….
Ah, we were energy independent right up until 2020.
You are spot on. As a result of the criminal waste of young Ukranian men, the country will be unable to rebuild post war (whatever is left of the artificial creation). But don’t worry, the EU/USA have a solution – replace Ukranian young men with men from the 3rd world… 20 years from now, the Ukraine will be utterly transformed. All of the current Ukranian nationalism will be gone and forgotten – committed to history books that no-one from ‘new’ imported population will be interested in.
60% ish US domestic oil goes to it’s military.
The army will always have fuel, so will the bases, so will key state and business players.
What US lacks is surplus for Joe average.
They could always attack Canada on the basis of Trudeau doing blackface and not being LGBTQ enough. The bitch.
Or maybe chuck a pipe in Venezuela ass.
Waiting to see sanctions in Venezuela drop like Biden on tricycle.
jorge almeida says
Biden has already lifted sanctions against Venezuela!
Not all. The greedy munchkins are still considering lifting sanctions so chevron corp can pump oil.
Manuel Verdugo says
Afortunadamente Mexico tiene muy poco.
Almost all oil in Venezuela under Russian control as i know.
Marielle Redclaw says
They’re doing it on purpose. Crash the system completely, then offer new totalitarian system to frightened populace.
I truly wish people would STOP calling these people stupid, or morons, or “lobotomized”. They aren’t. They are following ORDERS. And the people who are giving them orders? They are not stupid either. We might not even know who the top people giving the orders are. It’s big pyramid system and all we see is some of the middle levels. Klaus Schwab is pretty high up there but I bet he has a very small group above him. He’s a front man. So no these people are not stupid – they are evil. And that is what makes this whole deal so bad.
Good analysis and much closer to the truth than thinking the puppets running Western government are stupid.
The top people are the 10 kings. They are now orchestrating the end of Babylon USA.
This will come about when the Russian Bear has 3 ribs in its mouth (Daniel 7:5). The last rib may be Donetsk. If so, expect to see the USA destroyed in one hour within days after Donetsk is totally taken by Russia and its allies.
Bob Jackson says
No, they’re stupid. They think they have to grab other people’s wealth to become rich. They’re parasites who just consume. Productive human beings are beyond their ken. Which makes them evil, of course.
No, it’s ideology, purely and simply along with corruption (Biden is a case study alone, bur you can study many members of Congress also), and, lastly raw power.
Put all that in power in the US federal government explains a lot.
Dennis De Jarnette says
“A much bigger Russian collapse will unfold in the coming days.”
— Francis Fukuyama
“No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get Putin out of this particular situation. He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible.”
— Gen. David Petraeus
“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it’s a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces. What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine.”
— Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster
“I think that everything we’ve seen is suggestive of a near collapse of the Soviet military, like a near total collapse, and I think that the United States and NATO probably sees that this is an opportunity for a complete collapse of the Russian military and they’re going to take it… I think the battle for Ukraine is over.”
— Scott Adams
How can anyone disagree, especially with Scott Adams!
Meanwhile Russia’s doomsday machine submarine has slipped its berth and lurks somewhere in the world’s oceans. We’ve got the dumbest, most careless, sell-out generals on the planet. Their dishonesty and callousness to the fate of America’s citizens is astounding – unless they are just that dumb (which is still no excuse – if you are an idiot, don’t weasel your way into positions of power.)
The submarine can reasonably be located by infrared satellites the UK and US has that pick up very small temperature changes on surface.
Most subs also leave signatures. Certain waters are also densely populated with sensors.
The truth is that no one really knows what tracking tech others have but infrared satellites and ocean sensors are known.
How well they work is a question.
Poseidon may work great but it’s never been tested. It’s built using computer modelling. How it’s launch of nuclear and non nuclear munitions will work has therefore not been tested live, nor has its capacity to generate this ‘tsunami’.
It’s main aim is to disable US aircraft carriers. US considers an attack on its carriers as an attack on its soil.
Destruction of an aircraft carrier therefore is really a huge trigger to which the US will need to respond very aggressively.
So technically, though untested live, Poseidon can take out all US navy carriers and sarmat and hypersonics with thermobaric munitions all bases.
The US can take out moscow, Crimea, kaleningrad, transnistria etc as there are no 100% air defences and Moscow and St Petersburg are vulnerable as they be are so close to NATO. Russia above sea fleet very very vulnerable. That will go in minutes.
So a big mess.
For what exactly? Some people’s right to self determination and security.
The first things to go will be Uncle Sam’s eyes in the sky .. think peresvet.. he can’t control his missiles then (they can even get returned to sender) … What just happened in Korea … Elon Musk is getting nervous about starlink.
I hope Musk is getting nervous about his shit-ass satellites that are messing up the once natural sky I used to look at. I can’t look at the night sky anymore without seeing those goddamned things and it makes me sick. The night sky belongs to every one on Earth – so how does the FAA have the right and power to decided if it is OK to put these things into near earth orbit?
Top Gum says
If US had a chance to take out Russia, they would have done so. Fact is, they can’t and they get their ass handed to them every day. All the west does is spewing pure BS to save face and circumvent any uncomfortable questions. Meanwhile their money and hardware is burned by their already defeated proxy.
You can’t track submerged subs with infrared satellites. I have worked with IR-technology as a student for 2 years and that is utter BS what people think they can do with it. They have zero knowledge what IR can really only be used for. NATO/US don’t know where most Russian subs are when they leave home port anyway.
Poseidon is not designed to take out navy carriers. For that they use hypersonic missiles. No one really cares about navy carriers anyway. They are sitting ducks and will go down first thing should a conflict between US/Russia got hot. US leadership/military lives in a fantasy world where they project their accomplishments destroying mostly defenseless countries on their real enemies. That is a utter false assumption. We see it in Ukraine every day. All those instructors, all the help and support and they still get blown into pieces by the thousands every week.
There is nothing NATO/US can do. They will be eradicated in any attempt to destroy Russia. Russia at least has an layered AD. US created Aegis because they have no working AD at home and must relay on shooting down Russian ICBMs right after launch. That has never been tested either. It will fail. Russia uses EW as protection/countermeasures on their missiles.
And yes, it is exactly for people/countries to be free of external threats and a world wide dictatorship of US/NATO. They have gone too far, killing millions and destroying many defenseless countries looting their resources.
The US, China and Russia all have capacity to take out satellite. But that would be a huge direct escalation as no proxy has similar capacity.
There are 5 space treaties. Technically space cannot be used for weapons.its for benefits of mankind.
In reality all the major players likely have very serious and dangerous weapons at GPS level and possibly above
Dan Farrand says
Agreed, plus Nuclear Submarines do not dump large volumes of heat overboard.
If a Submarine could be detected using infra-red, the US would not be planning to spend 100 billion to build a new class of boomers.
Jack Gordon says
Your post is just so reminiscent of chatter on the television I no longer watch (or even have in my house), of all the wasted brain power and hot air used to discuss “likely scenarios” and abstruse military matters about which you haven’t a clue in reality. My guess is that all this pseudo-sophisticated bull hockey helps distract your mind and those of others from recognition that your country is falling apart and that nothing can prevent its decline.
Aleex Thrace says
IR is very rapidly attenuated in seawater, surface temperature changes from a submarine at any reasonable depth are at the 4th decimal point. Sunshine and current wipe any of that out and the sensors are not that sensitive anyway
Muralidhar Rao says
I would say this is delusional thinking of the highest order. So while we are busy taking out Moscow and other cities and sinking the ships the Russians will sit on their hands wait for some more nukes to liberate them to heaven. That is why they have the nuclear launchers on trucks roaming Russian hinter land just to burn the excess gas and oil they can’t sell to the west. What a great concept. By the way they might even bring Chubias back to ashes in Moscow to decapitate Putin like they did to Qaddaffi. Thanks
your analysys is porous,Moscow is the most heavily defended city IN THE WORLD!
regarding the Belgorod,isn’t the point of a sub to disappear beneath the waves,DUH?OH MY GOD THE BELGOROD LEFT PORT AND DISAPPEARED!
You are a bit limited in knowledge aren’t you. Do at least basic research before pontificating shit. Lazy.
There is No such thing as 100% defensive shield especially over large cities. If enough weapons are fired some Will get through.
So wind up your brain here…
The closer the firing distance and higher the frequency the more likely a hit will happen.
Bobkins, why do you think Russia is in Ukraine if it has 100% defensive field around Moscow or anywhere else?
Do you know how many times Russia raised genocide, war crimes in Donbass at UN? None.
So think think hard. Why did Russia invade Ukraine 8 years AFTER killings started.
Answer by next year.
Sure, then why have any subs? Suspect that beyond a certain depth, the sub cannot be detected. This is real world, not a Top Gun movies.
Do some research please.
I worked on exactly that kind of tracking for 3 years.
All subs leave signature.
@Ash Russia already has hypersonic anti-shipping missiles that can turn even the largest aircraft carriers into floating (or is it sinking) coffins. No defense against them exists. Hence, the long-standing US strategy of projecting force via carrier battle groups may no longer be viable.
I’m so sick of armchair generals ..
G. Albert Whitford says
“For what exactly? Some people’s right to self determination and security.”
If you are referring to the Ukrainians, you are still light years from understanding this latest mess created by the Empire of Lies and Chaos, a huge crime fortified by a tsunami of lies—as usual.
Russia (or China for that matter, or any of the other nations designated by the US/UK deep state as “enemies”) are NOT our enemies, never were. They are nations who simply wish to fight for and retain their freedom of action and sovereignty, something the Washington mafia cannot tolerate.
The Washington mob has now reached a level of moral decrepitude so acute that it does not only practice naked neocolonialism (as per their Neocon vermin’s vision of global imperialist supremacy), it turns on a dime against supposedly loyal vassals, like the pathetically corrupt and cowardly Europeans, who are about to discover who they are really allied with.
Larry Johnson says
Just a reminder that supposedly smart people can be incredibly stupid.
Michael Murry says
As my fellow Vietnam veteran, Daniel Ellsberg said of these U.S. military/civilian stumblebums: “They’re not stupid. They’re just clever people who have lost their minds.” One charitable way to put the case . . .
Art Thomas says
Larry, I hope you don’t mind if I post Shakespeare’s 94 sonnet, which seems appropriate here. It’s about monarchs who turn to shit when they abuse their power.
They that have the power to hurt and will do none,
That do not do the thing they most do show,
Who moving others are themselves as stone,
Unmoved, cold and to temptation slow,
They rightly do inherit heaven’s graces,
And husband nature’s riches from expense,
They are the lords and owners of their faces,
Others but stewards of their excellence.
The summer flower is to the summer sweet,
Though to itself it only live and die,
But if that flower with base infection meet,
The basest weed outbraves his dignity,
For sweetest things turn sourest by their deed:
Lillies that fester smell far worse than weeds
Marielle Redclaw says
Or they just get their paychecks from someone else now.
Richard Steven Hack says
Brian Berletic’s video also points out that many pro-Russian bloggers and analysts have fallen for the BS. Even Alexander Mercouris in his video Wednesday kept talking about a “Russian defeat” and how if there many more it could lead to Putin’s popularity falling.
Is he high? He admits the military operation has a 70-75% approval rating in Russian polls. He also forgets that there are 300,000 more Russian troops committed to the fight. So how does he think Ukrainian “successes” (capturing empty villages while taking horrendous losses) is going to last long enough to reduce Putin’s popularity?
Bob Valdez says
Very true, Larry, very true. I’ve always considered ‘intelligence’ is not about how smart one thinks one is, or how clever one is, it’s about being able to accept that everything we think is true can be wrong, and being able to accept that.
few can face that their thinking may be wrong.
fewer still can face that possibility and change their perspective.
hence, little intelligence left
IMO it relates to the type of labor one does. In my anecdotal experience, if I’m discussing these issues with someone who works with their hands – bartenders, warehouse workers, etc, they pretty much know what’s going on. OTOH If I talk to people who do mental labor – managers, consultants, lawyers, teachers, etc, they genuinely believe that the Russians are on the verge of collapse.
Also I find it funny, those that are frothing at the mouth over Trump “stealing” classified documents don’t have that same smoke for Petraeus. One would expect mental laborers would at least be good at THINKING. Go figure.
Muralidhar Rao says
Thank you for your post. You got me thinking the difference between these two classes of people dirty callous hands and manicured hands. I just realized that the manicured hands get to their positions because of their compliant behaviour so in their words they are already brain washed to follow the leader which in this case is the media and retired generals. So in spite of their education they lost critical thinking. Now the guys and gals with callous hands have to use their common sense or the analytical brains to move around, solve the problems that araise around their work, normally the bosses tell them go do this or that but can’t micromanage each and every one of their moves. So these people are in my opinion are problem solvers and are capable of thinking for themselves and are also dubious about the prowess of their superiors thinking or problem solving capacities. That is why you see the difference between the two classes of people. Fortunately we have more of callous hands in this world. Thanks for making me think in a different way
This is going to sound weird, but North Korea has this figured this out: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Juche_Tower%2C_Pyongyang%2C_North_Korea_%2825_September_2008%29.jpg
The farmer, the factory worker, AND the nerd have to work together in harmony. The farmer feeds everyone, the factory worker builds tractors for the farmer and computers for the nerd, and the nerd uses the computer to increase the efficiency of the farmer and the factory worker.
In the West the nerd dominates. Again I talk to these same people and they are perfectly fine with the Dutch government suppressing farmers and slaughtering their cattle herds. If food prices go up I suppose we nerds can afford the increase but what about everyone else? They are utterly delusional.
Real World vs. Fake World.
Somebody has to do the real work and get their hands dirty and so they are tuned into what in the fuck is going on.
These white-collar do-nothings and good-for-nothing are clueless even while they think they are up to date watching Judy Woodruff.
All subs leave signatures. The issue is detection identification.
Manuel V says
No tarda en apagarse uno que otro satelite de la zona, con los que esta tomando ventaja la Otan. Que mejor que esta oportunidad para probar ese nuevo armamento Ruso.
Nick J says
Let’s hope nobody tests new armaments. It is time to de escalate.
The new and still unseen technology will not be deployed now to avoid the enemies to find a countermeasure. Note that even the fighters SU-57 are not being used in Ukraine.
Are these comments made after rational analysis, Ukraine has no air power , very little artillery, depleted amount of tanks, you are looking a one of the greatest tragedies hosted on to the Ukrainians, since Hitler invaded the USSR. It will be a massacre of the innocents. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to analyse it.
Given the less than 100,000 offensive NATO/Ukrainian soldiers albeit gaining grounds in Ukraine, it would be way too early to call for Russian capitulation. It’s a joke actually if you think about those numbers and what Russia has yet to unleash.
82airborne an army within an army is there.filtering across.
When will people understand NATO is also fighting this war and a key driver of it.
The command in Ukraine is American the special ops are british. Entire polish btgs are there. The Ukranians are not really making any decisions. They are just fodder and fig leaf.
Russia defeated Ukrainie a whole back. It is now fighting NATO.
My theory is that Putin is putting a bait to the Ukrainian army in open lands. It is a huge risk to the Ukrainian soldiers, since Russia has the air dominance and an eventual strike will transform these places in a cemetery.
Which Scott Adams is this please?
Surely not the cartoonist?
Yes, I’m afraid so … I used to follow his locals page, until he suggested early in the SMO that citizens of Kiev film attack with Molotov cocktails and film the burning soldiers to send to their family members. Sicko…..
He says crap like this all the time, and when he’s called out on it, he points to some clever, ambiguous phrasing which fooled anyone daring to challenge him. Even now this smirking a-hole claims he was the most accurate voice on the covid arc. I have grown to loathe Afams, who has actually described himself as being “ to the left of Mao”. But don’t hold him to that, because he’ll surely say that he was merely being ironic when he said that.
And remember that, in addition to being a cartoonist, he boasts of being a hypnotist and a “master persuader”. Neither one of those things have anything to do with truth, only convincing people to do or think whatever he wishes.
Marielle Redclaw says
I gave up on him when he said those of us skeptical of the mRNA vaccines were right, but not for the correct reasons. He’s a mega-gamma.
They are not stupid. Do you think the 20 successive Generals in Afghanistan for 20 years were all stupid saying Afghan Amy/NATO were winning, or the 2 trillion dollars funneled back into think tanks, MIC, 1000s of NGOs in and around Arlington has something to do with their “expert” opinion? Follow the money always. Oh, and it’s not like you even can make General unless you play the game. more so than ever – Obama shit canned like 200 truth telllers. All DC works this way State dept NGOs to CDC with the lucrative clot shots. Regularoty capture and playing the game for big dollars. Our founders knew power corrupts, that’s why .gov is only supposed to have limited, “enumerated” powers but FDR changed all that as rest is history.
Dan Berg says
Two richest ZIP codes in US: DC suburbs and Silicone Valley
You are just kiding, aren’t you?
Anyway, I like this kind of try and decent sarcasm.
Well done, wiae guy, go ahead! The world will be yours.
reminds me 2021.
The vaccine is a game changer
The vaccine is the magic wand no one saw coming
The vaccine works so well that we don’t see any more jabbed hospitalized
Nope we got all this wrong
Says the losers that never won a war, ever.
Michael Droy says
The comment of Scott Adams really worries me.
When someone that smart gets it so wrong…
Cato the Uncensored says
Adams is a mid-wit savant with the talent to notice some of life’s absurdities and an unhealthy Dunning-Kruger effect self-regard for his ability to understand the meaning behind what he observes.
1-dimensional smart, apparently.
comrade simba says
Cartoonists aren’t as smart as TV celebs. That’s where the real thinking goes on.
Alex Thrace says
Yeah, be reminded that the Pentagon spent 20 years, $3 trillion and 24,000 casualties to replace the Taliban with the Taliban.
Eric Newhill says
That is true and would be very funny if not for the pain and suffering involved (my son is one of the 24K).
That said, there’s a flip side that should not be overlooked. That flip side being that “the US spent $3 trillion and 24,000 casualties to replace the Taliban with the Taliban”. – Meaning, the US govt is NOT accountable and they will go to insane lengths to accomplish nothing, even when it’s obvious they are accomplishing nothing. That is real dedication to a lost cause, albeit in a perverse form. Can Russia sustain against such a determined insane enemy?
Sure, one solution is to kill ALL Ukrainian troops until there are no more military age men left in UKR to draw from for replacements. Then what? Does the US get Poland and/or some other antagonist to enter the fray? I would not put such a move past the US.
Also, while I agree that the impending western economic implosion will be terrible and a sane leadership would weigh that heavily against whatever perceived benefits of “defeating” Russia and temper their lust for doing so, insane leadership might not.
This conflict is somewhat predicated on levels of insanity, the depths of which are unknown at this time + the levels of wealth/resources at the insane people’s disposal.
The worst thing that can happen to some people is that they are handed great wealth to play with. They use the freedom and luxury that great wealth brings to self-destruct. Think how much worse it would be if such a person could just print more money to replace what they blow through.
Seems to me these messages are an echo of the messages we heard in Afghanistan. In fact these are the same predictions that was heard in every US military conflict since the 2ndWW How some people still fall for these desperate cries reminds me of Lucy telling Chuck she won’t pull the ball out, this time! But some people are the same as the people that followed James Warren Jones.
LOL – the following was posted last March:
Dear Corporate Media:
For your Russia/national security analysis/commentary articles and TV segments, find literally anyone other than the freaks who lied America into the Iraq War that killed a million human beings.
Scott Adams doggedly made the case for masks during the covid plandemic, and he proudly got his jabs, as well. He is still trading on whatever credibility he got for his Trump prediction. I pay no attention to what he says anymore.
Putin destroyed his military and his energy business in one year.
that nitter thingy is a great tool to avoid having a twitter account but still be able to read a twitter wall.
A commenter over at Martyanov`s blog just shared it.
Jame VanWinkle says
Deplete strategic reserves is an invitation to oil blackmail, but that is beyond the strategic thinking of Biden administration clowns.
I’m not a military guy.
In the first video, what is the point of driving a couple of miles and then shooting up a tree?
One of the branches even fell off.
Tom S. says
What it looked like to me was a couple of light armored vehicles crossing a field hell-for-leather to kick out a squad of infantry and then get back across the field before Rusky arty could zero in. I was left with the impression that the vehicles were more valuable/rare than the grunts as they were dumped far forward, with not so much as a heavy mg, and then were left to fend for themselves. Is that sound infantry tactics? I don’t know.
Eric Newhill says
It looks like some guys straight out of boot camp on their first day of advanced infantry training. I was expecting to see an instructor walk up and call a stop to the exercise and start chewing up some asses
I’m sure Zelensky and the UA general staff do think the equipment is more valuable than the personnel. After all, they have millions of people who could be dragooned into the army, but without equipment they’d be reduced to shooting at Russian tanks with AK47s or handguns, or even throwing stones.
just saying says
APCs usually act as a battle taxi. They bring infantry to a position, and get the hell out of there. Heavy machine gun was shooting in the general direction of the enemy, which is commonly known as suppresive fire. Tree was “collateral damage”, and probably the only damage since it looks like there is no enemy anywhere around. I guess those guys successful conquered an empty field.
Eric Newhill says
they un-assed the APC slowly and then stood around in a bunch (big no no) looking confused and lost, instead of dispersing properly into an organized assault line/or taking up fighting positions and laying down suppressing fire from cover while others advanced.
just saying says
Yep. Like I said, they successful conquered an empty field. Any kind of enemy in the vincinity would make them end up like these guys:
Russia baiting Ukraine to attack them where they appear to be undermanned is the only thing that makes sense to me. At this point I have way too much confidence in the Russian high command to think that these retreats are mistakes on their part. Ukraine is suffering massive losses in men and machines, while Russia is relatively unscathed.
But we’ll never know what the Russians were thinking because they are way too intelligent to ever let anyone else in on what their actual strategy was at any point in time.
I go with the realignment of forces. Awful lot military material being moved West by the Russians including, as I understand, 800 plus aircraft.
The only two explanation that make sense of Russia’s snail like advances at the start of the op, now the withdrawal is (a) the Russian Armed Forces are crap or (b) it’s a bait, Russia wants NATO to enter the fray, only a head on confront could put an end to the notion the US Armed Forces are unbeatable by a conventional adversary.
You take your bet, Steven.
It’s not binary according to your two scenarios.
Yours are not the only ones that “make sense”.
Wow, a real eye-opener, Larry, another great job, much thanks!
Yep, that’s how I read OPEC+’s message!
Nice summary Larry, thanks.
Marcos aguilera says
Hello Larry as you say, whether this was planned or not, the result will be the same, the ukrainians are thrown into all or nothing, they must show the west a greater victory to convince that they are deserving of more money and weapons, videos circulating on the internet can be seen network of large railway formations loaded with artillery, anti-aircraft defense systems and logistics arriving in the area, things will get heated very soon, the result will be everything for Russia, nothing for Ukraine.
The day-to-day war situation, while very important, doesn’t concern me as much as the overall trajectory of the conflict: neverending escalation. I saw this early on when Ned Price stepped in on about day two to shoot down talk of a negotiated peace. BoJo famously did the same later. Zelensky, playing a part or not, is second to none in absolutist rhetoric. Ukranian and western commenters, politicians, and major think tankers won’t settle for less than Crimea, Donbass, Putin gone (Biden said this in Poland) – and seriously many say this – “demilitarization, denuclearization, and decolonization” of Russia itself. Elon Musk was crucified for proposing a reasonable deal just days ago.
On the other hand we have Putin unwilling to give up Russia’s centuries-old base in Sevastopol Crimea, Russian-speaking Donbass, and the other recently-added regions in nominally Ukraine.
As I see it, we’re in a game of Chicken (cars drive head-on, first to swerve loses) right on Russia’s border, or within Russia itself, with a uniformly dim class of experts in the West who don’t understand not swerving can be worse than ‘losing’ the ‘game.’ Mackinder Heartland theory was formulated long before 100 mt nuclear torpedoes and MIRV ICBMs. But our present ‘experts’ insist nuclear weapons can’t be considered in formulating strategy or the ‘bad guy’ wins. Decades of nuclear deterrence scholarship was a big waste of time. But they’ve never read any of it anyway.
Escalation is what is terrifying
Washington is indeed escalating because they have boxed themselves in a corner. They perceive their only out is via escalation.
I foresee 2023 to have some major Kiev/NATO armies engaged in fighting. I also foresee NATO expanding its destabilizing efforts all over the RF periphery as well as destabilizing efforts against countries trying to stay neutral, especially South American.
Eric Newhill says
Great info and analysis from Brian. Sharp young man indeed. He makes a convincing argument – – *except* :
1. I’m not hearing about what Russia can bring to the conflict and how much/how long they can sustain/resupply it. Granted we don’t know b/c Russian opsec is very good. Just that, ideally, we would be able to evaluate the other side of the equation as well. One of the official memes is that Russia has nothing to draw from. What is Russia’s production capacity? Have their armaments factories been working overtime? I find it very hard to believe that Russia hasn’t been preparing for this day in all ways, but it *could* be true. I have no idea. Not sure anyone else does either except the teams looking at sat imaging – and they’re not talking, nor is whatever humint might still exist at CIA and DIA.
2. Are we sure that what he says the Pentagon is supplying really is the complete list? Also, I don’t hear Brian accounting for the sophisticated intelligence/targeting/fire control systems provided by the US – a high first hit rate on high value targets can stretch the effectiveness of the ordnance that UKR has
3. Related to point 2, US command and control, commos – superior to Russia’s?
The above are nitpicks, really. Assuming Brian’s info is fairly complete and accurate and Russia mostly has its act together, Russia should be able to quickly secure its new referenda territory now that incorporation into Russia is complete; and after the introduction of the fresh 300K troops. In a few months UKR (well, really, the US) will be at the negotiating table with Russia, unless the US has some very terrible trick up its sleave. The destruction of Nord Stream makes me wonder what US escalation limits really are.
>>> I’m not hearing about what Russia can bring to the conflict and how much/how long they can sustain/resupply it.
Alex Veshinin of the Royal United Services Institute wrote a nice little paper in mid-June 2022; it is NATO/US that has insufficient productive (and logistic) capacity to match the Russian ‘operational tempo’.
The paper is called “The Return of Industrial War” and it’s quite good, as befits a person in a ‘think tank’ founded by the Duke of Wellington in the 1830s.
RUSI is a serious organisation with serious people.
This contrasts with the Kaganites’ Institute for the Study of War’… whose big drawcard is BetrayUs.
BetrayUS should have been imprisoned when he was CIA head, when he was caught betraying US secrets in order to get his teensy dick wet.
Worse than doing that; worse even than GETTING CAUGHT… in fact the worst of all the things – is that he got honeypotted by a woman who is a 5½ on her best day (also her maiden name is Krantz… just sayin’).
Betray your nation’s trust for a 9½ at least, you hopeless Herbert.
US negotiating its defeat? You have a better imagination than me as I cant imagine that. Plus, of course, Russia will require NATO out of Eastern Europe. Can even you imagine that? I cant. Not unless the US economy has collapsed along with the dollar and 25 buck a gallon gas and no jobs.
As Larry notes, its the economic war that is the real war.
Eric Newhill says
Oh I don’t know…..there are reasons it could be in all parties’ best interest to work something out for now, at least. For one thing, they might all be going broke. They might need to save some face while they still can. There are bigger fish to fry, other angles to play. They figure they can always break the agreement later on. You never know.
Consider that the gas situation in Europe is not going to be fixed even if NS2 gets switched on today.
27Bcum/yr is less than half of what GERMANY needs.
The issue has ‘pot-line- ramifications for the entire supply chain.
Apologies in advance for CAPS-LOCK but I can’t do “emphasis” any other way in this text-box.
Break it down:
• GAS is a key input into the HABER PROCESS (chemical manufacture of AMMONIA).
• The HABER PROCESS is a key input into FERTILISER PRODUCTION.
• FERTILISER is a key input into MODERN HIGH-Yield AGRICULTURE.
• Lastly: CO2 (as an industrial INPUT) is a natural output of the Haber Process, and is an important input into sectors like BREWING.
The Europeans are genuinely fucked. The next couple of years will be Steckrübenwinter all over again, and eerybody knows “It’s The Yanks Wot Dun It”.
So now muse on this FT article from early September -> “UK Brewers Hit BY Soaring Cost of Carbon Dioxide”
TL;DR: the ammonia plant that produces about a third of the UK’s industrial CO2 is owned by US firm CF Group.
CF Group is shutting down the plant because it’s LOSING £2k/tonne on the ammonia it produces because of GAS PRICES.
It’s tried to pass on the costs to its customers…
Money quote 1:
William Lees-Jones, managing director at JW Lees brewery in Middleton, Greater Manchester, said CO₂ that had cost £250 a tonne in June was last week priced at £2,800 a tonne.
Money Quote 2:
Oliver Robinson, of Robinsons brewery in Stockport, said his brewery, which has turnover of about £80mn a year, had paid £600,000 of surcharges on CO₂ this year and was recently quoted a spot price of £2,500 a tonne, which would have resulted in £2.6mn of further unexpected costs.
Peter Williams says
Most, if not all Russian armaments producers are running triple shifts and have doing so for quite some time.
Eric Newhill says
I would expect that, but at what certainty do we know?
Brian is good, but I don’t like one sided assessments. Makes me feel like I’m receiving a sales pitch as opposed to a complete picture from which I can make decisions.
Yes, I’m a hard ass. Lessons hard earned made me that way.
justs saying says
They were supposed to run out of cruise/balistic missiles many months ago, according to “experts”. They have been firing them every single day for 7+ months, and did not run out, because they are firing them as fast as they can make them. The reserve intended for potential conflict with NATO has to be kept aside, so that NATO doesn’t get any silly ideas.
As far as shells/rockets/bullets go, USSR made enough of those for fighting whole of NATO for years.
They are holding back things that they don’t have in large numbers or can not make fast, like airplanes.
The reason that Russia is only retaliating now is because for the last 8 years they have been modernizing their military and stock piling weapons so I think they they won’t run out any time soon.
Eric Newhill says
ha ha watched the second video. The troops dismounting the armored vehicle are disorganized amateurs. All bunched up like that, standing around. Are we sure that isn’t some video from some UKR school of infantry training?
Hi Larry. Today Big Serge has obliged us again, with an in-depth look at exactly what you’re referring to, with some Clausewitz thrown in for good measure: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means
While I’m at it, this quote from Sun Tzu seems to be appropriate at this time: “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.”
Larry Johnson says
Thanks for this. Serge nailed it. Very impressive.
Hello mr. Johnson
brian summed it up.
the gentleman i am posting has political views allot will disagree with. He was one of the 1st gentleman in the west to say putin was legitimate 20 yrs ago. He learnt to speak and read russian to translate their articles and if i understand correct is know of the russian orthodox persuasion. this is his take on western propaganda.
his podcasts are found here
The second video is another fine example of how Ukraine/NATO is throwing infantry alone into the Russian defensive positions, with no support from light armor let alone air.
In other words, the BMP? BTR? that the camera was in, and the humvees with it, acted as uber drivers. Once they reached the treeline, they ditched the troops and bailed back to the rear. “Good luck boys, we’ll be back some time with another bunch of artillery fodder, maybe.”
The infantry didn’t even have a noticable concentration of MANPADs and other heavy weapons, they’re just guys with AKs.
They can always retreat back across that massive open field, not successfully of course.
It makes me sick our US foreign policy establishment wanted this carnage to happen so much back in December that Blinken didn’t stall it with negotiations. Even our media reported failing to negotiate security as going through Putin’s “red lines.” But Blinken was too excited for the Super Sanctions which would obliterate Russia. He and Biden were giddy in public statements. They left out the part the main victims of them would be in the West, though it wasn’t tough to see even back then.
Marcos Santos says
There was not even an attempt to do medevac, and Ukraine doesn’t care about their soldiers corpses.
This is fucking sad, those man are being sent to a meat grinder, their life expectation can be measured in hours.
Tom S. says
Hardly noticed by anyone:
Desperately seeking allies in all the wrong places. Who knows what condition Venezuela’s oil patch is in or how long it will take to ramp up production.
Can you trust the one who tried to overthrow you? The US wants the oil sold by the US in Venezuela, not the oil sold by Maduro in Venezuela. The result is Iraq. Can you say that Maduro is an idiot who doesn’t even know that?
“The administration would give “significant sanctions relief” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime held talks”
Holding “talks” is cheap. Madura would be stupid not to agree to “hold talks” in exchange for sanctions relief. “Talks” can be dragged out forever while quietly recovering.
In the meantime, iirc, BRICS already has had “talks” with Venezuela.
So Biden has already given back & will give back some more of what we took from Venezuela, if they will only “talk” to us.
And then they can join Brics instead.
Never, ever underestimate how much Biden can fuck things up! 😆
Years to ramp up – what I hear is that it is held together by bandaids.
In any case, if the US oil production collapsed by 75% for a decade it would take the US many years to ramp up. That is just the nature of the oil patch (too many parts rust too much and skilled workers get jobs doing something else).
Tom S. says
I agree. Spent a big part of my life around the oil patch. Like most complex things you can’t just turn an oilfield on and off like a light switch. I heard a decade ago that Venezuela’s was a shambles but read somewhere that Iran and Russia had become involved. Unclear if they actually were doing anything or just helping Maduro get around the sanctions.
Cris from Caracas says
Let me start by apologizing for sounding so callous, but what’s coming is a Super Bowl Lite event….I’m glad on a front row of history….can’t wait to see what happens….. it will be everyday life and culturally defining…..the world that’s being left behind will seem alien and strange in but a few years, maybe even months……hurray for that!…..but then again, that’s if you’re optimistic about human nature, how about if it become a real 1984? Then, what has all that wishing done?
The Brian Berletic video was outstanding. And to make his point he uses pro-Ukrainian sources especially the Pentagon. He really brought home the logistics problems with the ammo citing his own experience as a Marine.
One aspect which some pundits pointed out was that NATO and the US have for several decades have faced insurgencies and poorly run and outgunned national militaries such as Libya had. The NATO/US military world view has been formed by inferior enemies. But the Russians have planned since about 2014 for “Big War” with all of NATO and the US. Hey, 10 HIMARS took about the Taliban. Why not the Russians who can launch over 60K shells per day. I found it interesting that the Ukrainians were complaining about the break down of Western weapons like artillery due to heavy usage. Hey, the M777 did great in Afghanistan.
But logistics is not sexy or exciting. It only wins wars.
Old saying but still evidently true – “Professionals talk Logistics, while Amateurs talk tactics”, your post is a good one.
My own view applying the above is that talking tactics demonstrates the amateur, garrulous nature of NATO retired Officers, while Russia talks very little and implements Maskirovka.
eg, The Ukranians are dug into a hardened defence line surrounds by hostages/civilians, how do you get at them? How about tac retreat across a cover free artillery killing ground and watch the idiots follow you, MASKIROVKA, they fall for it every time.
Black Cloud says
Execellent deconstruction of offical statements!
I just did a voiceover for a SouthFront video on events in the Ukraine. By and large, SF writers tend to be upset about Russia “losing” territory and emphasizes the losses of villages as opposed to talking about the huge losses of men and equipment on the side of the Ukrainians. Berletic points to this point of view as a “success” for Western PsyOps. I think not. Rather, it stirs Russian nationalism. Now, Putin is seen as a “moderate” in Moscow. People want stronger action. So the Russians are coming together. The Western media talk of “hundreds of thousands” of Russians “fleeing” the draft showing photos of a few hundred cars left at the Georgian border. For every Russian leaving Russia, probably a hundred are volunteering for service. Putin’s 1% mobilization will yield 300,000 trained and combat troops plus equipment in, what is by American military standards, an incredibly short time, so he can afford to sacrifice a few pawns on the board, while taking Ukrainian rooks and bishops, as well as most of their pawns. As I have argued on my substack articles, Putin’s strategy elevates demilitarization, killing the enemy’s army, over taking territory, contrary to the common notion that “war” is all about taking territory. HIs goals include restoring Russian pride and integrity and autonomy. And he now sees the “West” as collapsing under the weight of its delusions.
Are you serious?
You think 1% army mobilised?
This myth that 99% great troops playing chess and quoting sun tzu will emerge is complete bullshit.
If Russia loses the 400k it has now put in the game it’s game over
Russia started the SMO with <200k actual Russian (not including DPR and LPR) troops in Ukraine, not 400k. It has about 25 million reserves according to several sources I've heard. Calling up 300k is not much more than 1%. Actual Russian KIA so far is probably significantly less than 10k, nowhere near 400k.
Around 20% Russian army is currently involved in SMO.
That is going to increase. The increase will be significant militarily. Provided it gets there on time before some nut in Biden or Truss admin does not do something stupid. Because they will be encouraged and they will do something stupid. US is not dumb enough I think to give longer range weapons to NATO in Ukraine. But I think the Brits or poles may be that dumb.
Michael Droy says
I’d go even further. The Russian psyops is doing well. You are probably right it is net positive with in Russia. But bringing on the Ukrainians into battles withing Russia’s artillery range is a massive success.
Ukraine have made 2 huge mistakes. Defending the dug in Donbas territory was supposed to be the way they won, but it turned out that Russian artillery was so overwhelming that instead of Russia attacking with 5x the numbers and taking 5x the casualties it was <1x the numbers and Ukraine took 5x the casualties.
Now Ukraine is attacking Russia and again it is largely artillery warfare but Russia's superiority in that is even greater. I'd guess Ukraine outnumbers Russia locally 10x, and takes 10x the casualties.
Now if Ukraine just withdrew and fought with sabotage and shelling civilians from distance this war would never finish. Last thing the small Russian forces want to do is go chasing all over Ukraine to find Nazis hidden amongst civilians.
The 1% is the 1.2% of the potential Russian reserve of 25m men who at one time have served in Russian army. Of course the usable portion is a lot less but still many times 1.2%. It does give a clue as to how limited the mobilisation is compared to say Ukraine where pretty much everyone under 60 and some women are called up. Mind here in London I see plenty of U60 Ukrainian men every day… no one says they are deserting!
Mike that’s what I am worried about, having to deal with a guerilla war after Russia defeats the Ukrainians and sends them packing back to Kiev. Then what? Let’s say the Russians and their Allies consolidate the Donbass and all of Kherson and Zapo. And then maybe they go for Odessa and Kharkiv. OK. Then what? Ukraine is still next door to Russia, the Novoruskiya. I wish I knew b/c I’m sure that Shoigu and Putin, et al have already thought about that.
Tom S. says
One thing I ponder is how this SMO must be changing the Rusky Army. This is the first near peer conflict Russia, or really anyone else except Israel, has been involved with since Korea. Their learning curve has been near vertical for the last six months. To be a fly on the wall and see/hear what they think they have learned. Are they sending their best/brightest/most resourceful back to the rear to train the 300,000 that have been called up. You can tabletop ’til the crack of doom and still not know as much or have the understanding that 30 minutes of actual combat imbues.
I think of Solzhenitsyn, a resourceful competent artillery officer jerked out of the line on on the eve of an offensive and shipped to the Gulag because he retold an off-color joke about Stalin in a personal letter to a close friend. How many times was that repeated in the Red Army? What was the cost of that in casualties? I can’t see Putin being that small or stupid: Milley, Austin, or Biden yes, but not Putin.
If this goes on long enough the Interagency will find a way to insert U.S. ground troops into it, they can hardly restrain themselves now (hey, bodybag contractors gotta make a living to, and what’s the point of of a never ending war if you don’t have never ending photo ops at Dover). How much more experienced will the Ruskys be by then and, the bigger question for the Pentagon, will Grave’s Registations get our kids pronouns right.
Blue Thunder says
Good summary. Quoting: “Even if this is not a Russian plan (i.e., baiting the Ukrainians) the outcome will be the same.”
Personally, I think 50-50 about Russia’s military’s overall performance. Some of what we see is the result of carefully planned strategic military considerations; reactive actions; and in other cases just plain mistakes. Yesterday SouthFront posted an interesting video from Vladlen Tatarsky (military reporter from the Donbass): the guy was very straight forward and spoke with a lot of common sense. But was also critical as well of the Russian military.
Okay – we get it. We shouldn’t get our panties in a knot… as another commentator (Greg) put it: “as Patton said, No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country, He won it by making some other dumb bastard die for his country”. Yet “the truth is you don’t win a war by giving up territory. That’s like playing football to lose ground.”
And Brian Berletic’s rationale is also clearly understood; how not to agree with his logic and facts? But even so, we must be careful about being overly smug and confident. Quoting again from another commentator (norecovery): “Ukraine is now entirely dependent on the United States and NATO. This has been true since 2014 and the US will continue pouring money and equipment into Ukraine. You underestimate these capabilities by assuming that economic conditions will hamper them, but you fail to understand the war economy is independent of the civilian one.”
Frankly, if the situation continues the current trajectory then eventually I will have to “take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down.” However, trust that it won’t get to that.
That’s my thought as well Larry. I just posted the following on The Duran in response to Alexander’s concern that Russia is on the verge of massive reversal in Ukraine:
“Russians don’t take a dump son without a plan” – The Hunt for Red October.
Step 3 of the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) is: Evaluate the Threat. In this step we analyze past enemy patterns of behavior in order to predict likely future enemy COAs. Any good IPB would assign a very low probability to the idea that Putin and Russian military command does not have a plan.
If something doesn’t make sense, it usually means there’s something you don’t know. So let’s look at what we do:
1. The Northern end of the Kherson line is lightly defended, and the Russian forces there have been falling back without putting up much of a defense.
2. Prior to the referenda they defended this area much more vigorously
3. The Southern end (around Kherson city) is strongly defended.
4. The Russians have amassed sizeable forces in Belarus and Crimea which they have not used to fortify the line around Kherson
5. The Russians have not diverted Wagner group resources out of Bakhmut either.
6. An armored UAF column progressed down an asphalt road, but was not decimated by artillery as other armored groups have been in previous Kherson attacks over the last few weeks. An asphalt road is a linear terrain feature with precisely known grid coordinates, making targeting easy.
7. The terrain in the Kherson region over which the UAF has advanced is open terrain with little cover or concealment.
8. The Russian command seems strangely calm about the recent UAF advances.
9. You don’t amass 100s of 1000s of troops for incremental advances.
10. To feed their offensives the UAF has depleted reserve forces, not only from Odessa and the North but e.g. the 5th Tank Bde (now attacking N of Kherson) from Kryvyi Rih.
I think the 300k men recently called up is a bit of misdirection, in that they have no part in the forces already assembled in Crimea and Belarus, and thus mislead people into thinking any Russian offensive is months away. I think Russia is preparing a military cauldron, and a psychological cauldron. It looks to me as if the military cauldron will be effected by 3 pincers: Crimean forces will move up through Kherson, drive up the road to Kryviy Rih (see #10 above) and then toward Dnipro, Belarus forces will drive thru or around Kharkiv and down to Dnipro, a 3rd element will go through Bakhmut (why they have not backed off there) and converge on Dnipro. The UAF forces in Kherson have been allowed to advance into open terrain, and the armored column was not destroyed to encourage them to commit more reserves. They are now exposed. Reserve forces would normally be used to deal with breakthroughs to a rear area, but the UAF has already committed their reserves. This would create 2 very large military cauldrons.
The “psychological cauldron” is a term I just invented to describe the effect on the West of having been encouraged to think they are on the verge of imminent victory, only to watch the situation collapse catastrophically.
You could be right. An experienced French ex para Xavier Moreau was in Donbas for the referenda and reported that the officials there were very relaxed about the situation. He also reported that the breakthrough around Karkhov was achieved by first sending in massive cannon fodder Ukrainian troops which caused the Russian artillery to reveal its positions, which then suffered counter battery fire and then they charged through with mercenaries and elite troops in light vehicles. Neat tactics but not I think likely to work every time once the Russians wake up to the trick, which I believe was used in Syria by US trained troops.
Rob Campbell says
Impressive well thought out speculation and a possible explanation for Russia’s apparent relaxed attitude to Ukrainian territorial gains. Of course, other explanations are possible: only time will tell. I agree that a Russian offensive could come sooner rather than later because Russia is obviously fighting a political and economic war. The OPEC+ decision and an October Russian offensive in Ukraine will no doubt be aimed at the US mid-terms on November 8th.
Btw for what it’s worth, just caught this comment somewhere … “Please look up Karl-Peter Griesemann. His company was responsible for the maintenance of the Nord Stream. 3 weeks prior to explosion on way back to Germany, he got word of the planned sabotage, so he flew over the area to check it out. He may have seen something that he shouldn’t have. Now he’s missing along with his family and plane.”
No, at least according to the Griesemann Group. At least according to a dubious Fact checker:
“Auf Anfrage versichert die Firma, «dass die Griesemann Gruppe keine geschäftlichen Beziehungen mit der Nord Stream AG unterhält. Wie Sebastian Orzel, Referent Marketing und Unternehmenskommunikation der Griesemann Gruppe, erklärt, gab und gibt es weder in der Vergangenheit noch zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt Wartungsaufträge für die Pipelines oder zugehörige Technologien. «Auch am Bau der Pipelines gibt es keine Beteiligung der Griesemann Gruppe», so Orzel.”
The story is even more mysterious: This website
describes how within days every internet page that formerly had something on the connection between Nord Stream and the Griesemann Group has been deleted.
Raven 6 says
I saw an article on that which indicated the pilot and people on board were incapacitated due to the loss of cabin pressure. Basically passed out and the aircraft flew until it ran out of fuel. Much like the Payne Stewart crash back in 1999. I read that military aircraft were sent up and couldn’t see anyone sitting in the pilot seat and the aircraft didn’t answer the radio call’s.
About the Gas / Germany/ end of empire who’s who, but it all ties in with todays post.
And let’s not forget :
1) The Brandon Junta is a facing accelerating economic and political disintergration at home as Nov 3rd approaches that will make Pres. Jimmy Carter’s “malaise years” look rosy.
2) Virtually no normies in America are actually paying attention to or are avid supporters of Ukraine anymore…the MSM/PR honeymoon is over. Covid is tiast, while the old routines are back – work, bills, kids, football, school, and the holidays.
3) Europe is imploding.
4) War and Nuke threats everywhere. China, Russia, NK, oh my!
The Russuans got this chess board gamed out.
Hi Gigi (love that name by the way) — don’t you reckon the “Biden Junta” has this mid-term election gamed out with their crooked election apparatus that stole the 2020 Presidential and General Election? (My question is based upon the almost 100% certainty that the once they gain power they never let it go)
“Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure.”
I would think that after 8 months of providing intel, ammunition, air cover, etc., this would be more or less a symbolic change. Or am I missing something?
I think OPEC smells the scent of NATO desperation in the Nordstream bombing (which was screwed up), which actually is an act of war by the US or Poland/US against an “ally” Germany.
I am of the opinion that it still could have been Russia that blew up the pipes. Why? Because now we found out that one “string” of one of the NSs is still functional.
The whole episode allowed for Russia to point out USA as the desperate culprit who will harm its own allies and commit a whole country like Germany to freeze/de-industrialize (poor Blinken even gave big statements to the effect of how this is an opportunity for Germany and committed even further to the theory that evil USA did it) but then a few days later the ball fell into Germany’s corner now that we found out they can still get gas via one of the strings.
It is one of those “break you down to build you up” moments that take a whole country from terror/exasperation to orgasmic relief/love? 😉
Of course, the alternative explanation would be incompetence on the part of the diversion teams that destroyed the pipelines and errors do happen but I find the probability of such an error highly unlikely.
I disagree that Russia is not in trouble militarily. I think they are. And I think internally they are beginning to be issues.
However economically they are big enough to survive this is west does not break Russia up.
Make no mistake the west is all over Russia borders.
The economic issue is more interesting.
However opec os desperate for money and power and is not supporting Russia. Arab nations are net food importers their costs are up.everyone needs money. They are not in financial position to lower oil
Military Russia has made a mess of it so far. Not removing supply lines etc and allowing soldiers and civilians to be needlessly killed is irresponsible at best.
Russia does not look capable of beating NATO right now.
1. “.. allowing soldiers and civilians to be needlessly killed is irresponsible”
You have described succinctly what Ukraine has been doing all along & is still doing.
2. “.. opec is desperate for money and power and is not supporting Russia.”
Opec is cutting down production in direct response to US’ hiking up interest rates inducing a global economic slowdown bordering on a recession & reduced oil consumption. Opec regulating oil supply to control price to its advantage is nothing new. What is new is the Saudi’s unexpected alignment with Russia of late, and Saudi’s ascension as SCO dialogue partner, a key step towards full membership.
Top Gum says
Russia is not in any trouble. The numbers from the ground still showing a huge advantage in favor of Russia’s SMO. Territory is not important as the elimination of troops and equipment.
US/NATO support is fading. This was clearly stated by a closer look at the numbers of US packages send to Ukraine in the first video. This is simply unsustainable and it is true.
Economically Russia has no trouble, at least not that serious as the west does, especially Europe. Without affordable energy resources (until recently provided by Russia) they are not able to manufacture anything at a reasonable price. Therefore they simply give up and shut down. All outlooks paint a very bad economic picture. Russia on the other hand is amassing money because of the western sanctions that have pushed prices up a lot.
The criminal behavior of Ukrainian forces by shelling and killing of peaceful civilians was met with referenda and the reunification with Russia, which changes their status and pushes the stakes for NATO/US/Ukraine into new territory.
So far Russia has reacted to everything adjusting their tactics and procedures. They even reacted to the west advancement on oil caps by reducing the output from OPEC+ to push up prices. The west has lost that one too and they lost big time. It is not about money, but about who is in charge. OPEC+ has shown that is supports Russia. No one there wants to bu subjected to something similar. The US has been illegally sanctioning a lot of countries lately. It was about time to strike back and show them who really has the power. Russia has warned the US not to weaponize their currency or economical influence. They did it anyway and now they have to deal with the consequences.
US and their vassals are clearly loosing everything. No one really sided with them. They are isolated and running out of options. Their support for Ukraine is more and more insignificant and only a big PR illusion. This does not sound good, even to the MSM. Russia is clearly calling the shots and has the support of the rest of the world.
Once they mobilise, if done in time and with due force, then you may be right. Things may turn very much against Ukrainato. But alot can happen as you can’t mobilise in a week or so. Takes months.
Michael Droy says
Opec – absolutely. For some strange reason nobody seems to understand oil market basics. A short term shortage lead to mega prices but the market trades largely on forward prices and forward prices have been much much lower all the time, and still are.
This was a one-off shortage that is resolving itself and prices are expected to fall further.
So that combined with Economics slow downs, means that a 2billion cut in supply is actually too small. Saudi is certainly not doing Russia a favour here.
Nick J says
I’d suspect all is not well within the Russian army leadership and training wise. That said every army finds it has problems to solve when faced with an enemy. That however is not decisive, what is decisive is capacity, capability and logistics, logistics, logistics. Game set and match to Russia.
Oblomovka daydream says
Brian Berlectic’s vlog ‘The New Atlas’ is a class of its own, because he debunks the bragging of US generals by purposely using the Pentagon as his source. His analysis is extremely detailed and exposes the logistical long term deficiencies, therewith giving his own analysis a long term tenability (a quality shared with Larry’s analysis). Alex Mercouris’s analytic quality shows in his ability to digest valuable info from a huge number of sources, reaching out for a much wider scope of oversight than Brian, but both of them go very well together. Another class is the writing of Big Serge, that reads like a literary miniature (a quality shared with Larry). The Saker and Andrei Martyanov do possess a strong drive, that is passionate as well as accurate. Well, thank the Lord for these righteous tzaddikim!
Ernesto González says
As Axel Rose once said: Welcome to the polygon!
Oscar de Caracas says
European television claims that new Russian weapons such as, possessed, sarmat, kinzhal, etc. they are nothing more than weapons “demos” (sic) in other words prototypes of prototypes. If the European audience found out the truth, that they are fully operational weapons, what would happen? It would be interesting to find out
I sometimes wonder, just maybe, this is the WEF’s plan all along. How else would you dislodge the US as the Super Power but to first damage it beyond repair so the reserve currency status would be buried, similar to Britain after WW1/2….Russia and China would play its part reluctantly, and in the end, after some 20 yrs post WW3, new tech would be brought out to so call help the world rebuild (thinking Fusion and better batteries). Most people do not understand, USA DOES NOT have the ability to rebuild 4 major cities if they were completely destroyed along w/ half the carrier fleets. The amount of labor and raw materials is beyond current generation due to lack of experience and hardiness (20-30 yrs process would be too long, 5-10 yrs is out of question). Only China has that ability right now since they have been doing just that past 40 yrs, putting up city after city, subway after subway, roads after roads, similar to USA 100 yrs ago. Like any Great Game, all the players are being used/manipulated in some form or fashion…..
John Thurloe says
Mr. Putin is looking like Gen. George MaClellan. Forever organizing,but a timid, hesitant fighter. The current Peninsula Campaign could have been wrapped up months ago if Putin had the grit of U.S. Grant or Abraham Lincoln.
The failure of Russia’s military intelligence to see and report the Ukrainian build up leaving the few fighters needlessly exposed is very bad. Worse, since Russia had both the forces and material available to prevent this. Grant, Hooker and Sherman all got to Chattanooga faster than the Russians have feebly responded. Blow up our pipelines? Lincoln would have closed the border. As he did. Cotton being gas.
Putin is an acceptable political leader. But Russia needs a fighting military commander. Thankfully, the Ukrainians have Gen. J.B. Hood.
I think the parallels are way off. Gen. Maclellan did not have to win an economic war with a very powerful enemy at the same time as he was “fighting”. He also did not have to get 80% of the world’s population on side while doing so. Maclellan did not fight a war while his economy was under attack of all of the western’s might – that would have more parallels with General Lee heh.
There is more going on here besides “steamroll over Ukraine”. Beating the Ukrainians into a pulp will not really solve Putin’s problem – he has to pacify a much larger/more aggressive enemy (the west) and make any IDEAS of further attempts at conquest unpalatable. Otherwise, his would not really achieve any political aims and a few years down the road will be in the same war again,. only this time the opponent is much more ready.
Look at it this way – Ukraine is fighting a defensive war but there is no danger of Ukraine dismembering Russia, just winning back its territory would be a feat of astronomically low chances. The west, on the other hand, is fighting an all out war with the aim of dismembering Russia, taking its resources and installing a puppet “western friendly” government. Putin was friendly to the west too and it is pretty obvious he wants to do business still but he wanted to be treated as equal, which is apparently not allowed. The proof is in places like Iraq, Kosovo, Libya etc. When the West decided that Iraq was a threat – even if it was thousands of miles away, they just rolled in. Russia has a concern on its borders yet not allowed.
By the way, it is possible to look at the current build up of forces around Ukraine as an offering/ultimatum since the West can see all of it – take your dogs back or else all hell will break loose. The fact that Putin is not in a hurry signals strength to me, not weakness. Russia has enough manpower and guns to obliterate a lot of territory/people in a knee-jerk reaction before it runs out of ammo even if it doesn’t win. Is this what you want?
William Shryver is seeing the same thing, let the enemy strike all the irrelevant empty bags it wants. Also thinks there is a major Russian build up going on east of Kharkov.
I think there is a major Russian build up going on everywhere, based on the these “train” videos that just keep popping up in on my YouTube feed. Recieved seven more since I wrote my last comment.
Someone wants me to know that the Russian Federation is about to launch the largest offensive the world has seen since the end of WWII, when in August of ’45, a Red Army outfit, of modest strength, rolled down out of Mongolia and proceeded to kill or capture the 900,000 strong Kwangtung Army of Japan in a matter of three days.
But why? That’s what puzzles me. Who is letting me see this? Is it my government, or has the Russian Federation finally figured out how to win a victory or two on the propoganda front?
Figured out how to beat the American censors and get some positive Russian vibes going for its neglible YouTube audience?
Probably won’t know till the war is over, I suspect.
Which is another question I have. How does this war end? Certainly, at minimum, you must take Odessa and landlock this Nazi whorehouse, for all the trouble they have caused you?
Anything less, and I will no longer consider Vladimir Putin as a moderate voice of reason, but only as treasonous weakling of the neo-liberal school.
Brian’s “analysis” is very superficial. He looks at some map with practically no details and draws his conclusions.
Like for example, the Russians are not counterattacking, they are withdrawing and preserving their soldiers while destroying Ukrainians.
If you call yourself an analyst then go a little deeper into the reports and you will find out that the Russians have been counter attacking and you’ll find out where, and with what units and with what result(or lack thereof) and losses. Brian is not doing that.
Regarding the munition question, it should be pretty obvious that Ukraine is not relying on just the NATO help. By now, they must have hundreds of small and medium shops scattered across that big country producing small arms ammo, mortars, artillery munition, and much more.
It is an industrialized country that used to build planes, ships and aircraft carriers. They have plenty of know how. That they are supported with the US and the rest of NATO is an additional bonus. Brian ignores this entirely.
Who says they will attack Kherson head on ? They have been pretty successful in maneuver warfare.
Do you think Crimea cannot be conquered ?
It took Manstein a few days to get through the Perekop isthmus. If Ukraines manages to get close to Crimea, the Kerch bridge will be attacked and disabled just like the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson and there goes your resupply.
Brian is not providing an analysis but a feel good pro Russian story.
just saying says
It was an industrial country that could build planes, ships and aircraft carriers back in the day. Nowdays they can’t build shit, and have to rely on “gifts” from the west. What they do have is large number of brainwashed idiots willing to die for Washington/Bandera/whatever.
In case you haven’t noticed, Crimea has a landbrige too. The whole Kerch bridge fascination reminds me of Snake Island.
Ukrainians (or Russians) may not be able to build aircraft carriers anymore but there is a lot of things they can make.
Remember what the “moderate rebels” did to the Syrian Arab army or ISIS to Turkish Leopard tanks, and they had nowhere near the manpower, strategic depth, industrial capability or NATO support the Ukrainians have.
Crimea has a land bridge at the moment, but if the current Russian “tactical regroupings” continues that might soon change.
They needed to initialize mobilization months ago.
just saying says
Soviet aircraft carriers were built in Nikolaev shipyard. It has gone to shit decades ago, just like Antonov (that used to build BIG airplanes). Russians are currently building two helicopter carriers in the Kerch shipyard. Russians can build lots of stuff. Ukrainians can’t build shit. Recently they accepted a batch of modernized T-55 tanks from Slovenia. That’s NATO power to you.
Many things might soon change, but NATO can not build military industry over night, especially with currently ongoing deindustrialization of Europe.
Since 2014, Kiev‘s industry has been wrecked. 2/3s of working age Ukie’s voted with their feet and got jobs overseas. Kiev‘s citizens went from being the most prosperous in the USSR to the poorest in Europe ( poorer than Albania for crying out loud )
The only real industry that is functioning is in the DPR and LPR these days.
If I am not wrong Brian is talking about the Ukranian offensive and Russian response to the offensive. They are giving a good fight and in the process taking out Ukranian military personnel and military pieces and then when the situation becomes difficult they methodically withdraw. Do you see anything wrong with that policy? Also it is true Russians are on the offensive in Bakhmut area and are slowly gaining ground in the well entrenched area with minimal losses and Ukranians after also with drawing but sustaining heavy losses due to the heavy artillary power of the Russian army. In my opinion from various analysis I read and try to comprehend I am pretty sure Brian got it right. Please tell me where I am wrong?
The idea that one side could trade space for time is so alien to people in the west these days. The inability for so-called professionals to understand basic ideas.
As a retired army colonel friend of mine said early on in the war. “Spyguy. I understand everything your telling me. I get its historically accurate. But it goes against everything I was taught as a US Army officer for 30 years.”
To which I thought no wonder why you guys keep losing wars.
This kind of retreat is a well known military manouver. I’m sure they teach it in the US somewhere.
Retreat UpTo about 20kms and then strengthen line and forward.
It works well provided that the revised front line is not breached and the advance does not bring key assets into firing range of the enemy. So how well you do depends on how far you retreat and how that new line holds.
Right now where Russia has retreated to is not very worrying militarily, though absolutely horrific for civilians if the brutal revenge killings even western media are finally reporting are remotely accurate. It is sickening what is happening to civilians and heads should roll for not anticipating that and creating order to evacuate and a wall for them to also retreat behind.
Russia will however need to keep retreating until strong new front up which will take weeks or months possibly.
In the interim they have to have a better evacuation plan for civilians.
Expect further retreats and civilians killed for now imo.
I have been thinking about this a bit more.
A few things – first: NATO/US can see all the Russian troops amassing at the borders, all the train compositions moving equipment etc. Not rolling into Ukraine immediately may be the last attempt by Putin to give them a chance to see what is coming and relay that to the Ukrainians in the realization that “game over” is about to happen; this may be Putin’s last negotiation/offer/chance to the West to instruct the Ukrainians to surrender the territories they lost and for the West to save face (or for USA govt to save face before elections). He doesn’t have to say anything publicly, the satellite and video images say it for him.
Second: we don’t really know the positions of western intelligence services in Russia and how much they actually know. Judging by how well the sanctions are going and other isolated tidbits of information (like western media being unable to name a single Russian general in the operations theater for example or western governments not anticipating the “rubles for gas” scheme or the size of the rebellion in the global south led by Russia and China), it all points to the fact that the ex-KGB man (Putin) has been running the country like the whole thing is the KGB (or the converse is true: the western intelligence services suck).
This means that the west actually has no idea what the plan is – for all we know the “Putin is in trouble domestically” discourse in addition to “Russians are losing territory in disarray” may be an elaborate ploy to project weakness and “bait” more investment into the conflict by NATO/USA/Ukraine. At the end of the day, beating the snot out of Ukrainians is just a small part of this conflict, the bigger goal (in my mind) would be to inflict lasting lack of desire to meddle with the Russians onto the collective West. I think Putin would be happy with that – he does not strike me someone who is out to pulverize everything, instead, he strikes me as a responsible leader who wants to do business with the West tomorrow, only he wants to do it on an equal footing.
Finally, taking your time shows you are in control and have options. Yes, it could be all theater and Putin could internally be loading on valium daily in panic and heavy sweats caused by the situation on the ground (“general” Petraeus is paid to say so?) but a person has to ask themselves – how likely is this? Russia is a vast country with virtually unlimited resources and Putin has spent the last 20+ years preparing for this conflict. Look at all the military equipment rolling on the trails – it looks brand spanking shiny new! To think that he and his strategists have not considered the possibility that they would be fighting NATO/USA/EU on all fronts at the end – well, it sounds amateurish for a guy who is running the whole place like it is a KGB Berlin directorate.
What is more likely is that here in the West we have gotten accustomed to everything being done for PR and optics. We simply do not “compute” when someone runs their operations in secrecy without any theater on TV/Twitter and with the goal of just getting stuff done METHODICALLY for his country, without parading it around and asking Twitter what they think about his every move. This doesn’t mean Putin doesn’t care about public opinion – he has engineered it to the point where the roles are reversed – there is so much desire in Russia (and the global south and even among many western citizens!) to pulverize Ukraine and teach the West a lesson that he could be riding on that wave into Paris. The real mastery on his part is that he doesn’t have to slime his way around the TV camera every 5 minutes saying things and then having staff go back on them and “clarify”, he has done it like a real leader – because he can.
In conclusion, I am of the opinion that there is a much larger thing going on here and that whatever is happening day to day in Ukraine is a part of a much larger scheme the Russians are plotting. This doesn’t mean that the collective West is blind and dumb. There are still competent people in all sorts of structures in the military and intelligence apparatus that can and do throw a wrench into Putin’s plans – it’s just that the Russians just might be better this time. After all, they are fighting on their own doorstep.
Well said, Post of the Thread!
” …it looks brand spanking shiny new …”
That’s what’s so striking. I believe fully one-third of the equipment I’ve seen on these “rolling trains” is for the first time being exposed to outside elements, and if you excluded tanks, it would be closer to half.
Agree, it does seem like Putin is giving the US one last chance to negotiate. But satellite images be damned, the US is not going negotiate – not as long as there is Uke and mercenary cannon fodder to be thrown into the breach. I think that goes without saying.
So question remains (as it has from beginning), how much of Ukraine will be taken in coming offensives? For instance, do you want to eliminate the snakepit, Kiev? If so, do you Shock & Awe it, starve it into submission, or god forbid, fight for it street by street?
Same goes for lovely Odessa, which on paper is a “friendly” city. Do you approach it with kid gloves, and send a herald through the gates to politely ask for it’s surrender? Foment an internal uprising, and get it done that way? Remove all of it’s Ukrainian elements with surgical strikes and roll on in?
What do you do? Phase 3 was always going to be the tricky part, the part where war has a tendency to get messy, where many human shields must die in order to get the job done.
Is Putin up for it? I have my doubts. I from the the Michael Hudson school, the one that believes the only times Vlad does what’s in the best interests of the Russian Federation, is when the West forces him to.
Personally, I believe what is in the best interests of the Russians Federation is to remove this cancer on their borders once and for all, because if they don’t get it done now, there is little chance they’ll ever get it done.
Opportunity seldom knocks twice Mr. President, is the advice I’d be giving if I was Kremlin advisor.
But I’m not. I’m an American. So what could I possibly know about what’s in the best in interests of mother Russia?
Note: Excellent summary btw.
just saying says
There is no way Russians would destroy Odessa or Kiev. My guess is that they will try to destroy most of the Ukrop army befor they even get close to them.
It is not the equipment Russia lacks (except for drones, they lack drones and PGMs) but well trained and well led men.
Your post is just one more in a long list of “this is all part of the plan” posts.
Trust me, it was not Russian plan to be running from Ukrainian army 7 months after the start of this war.
Perhaps you are correct, I did say that he may be experiencing daily sweats and anxiety ’cause he realized that decades of doctrine building, training and military development amounts to nothing in practice and that gen. Petraeus and Clark could beat the whole Russian army with a platoon of barely trained Ukrainian conscripts and a couple of “merc” officers on any given day. It certainly looks that way…. right now. Only time will tell who was right.
just saying says
Of course there is much larger thing going on. It’s transition from unipolar to multipolar world, and it will take a while. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and it sure didn’t fall in one.
Agreed post of the thread –
I keep remembering that little one liner Vladimir Vladimirovich quietly spoke; and which must have gotten buried in all the “news”. Something to the effect of “We haven’t really done anything yet”.
Josef Schweik says
Ukraine has no military power to make any offensive. UA has no command nor logistic structures to make any offensive. The UA army is now just a bunch of old, unequipped and untrained scared to death conscripts caught by MP press-gangs in pubs. It is just a few weeks this mantra was repeatedly told here and there by various Experts and Strategists such as the famous AplusA duo.
Now we are told about Mongolian tacticts, plus tactical retreats and fronts shortening which liked very much Dr. Goebbels.
It seems that Ru generals and army even did not prepare any second lines of defense, as from information available is clear they are preparing them only now.
just saying says
“UA has no command nor logistic structures to make any offensive”, but NATO does. The game has changed, and Russian military is slow in reacting just like all big things are.
The thing that hasn’t changed is the ammount shit you are spewing here.
re: “… Mongolian tactics… ”
Since it would appear I was the only one to mentioned Mongolia in this thread, I believe that would be a reference to my comment?
If so, any Red Army tactics that took place in August of 1945 occurred in Manchuria, which is to the east of Mongolia. Mongolia is the place where the predominant elements of the Soviet forces disembarked, mustered, rolled through, that sort of strategic stuff, on their way to eliminating the entire Kwangtung Army from the Japanese Order of Battle.
The 32 divisions of Japan’s Kwangtung Army were, in theory, defending Manchuria from something, but truth be told, when the time came to defend, none of them did a very good job.
just saying says
Mongols would retreat to save their troops and would engage the next day, or the next month, after having studied the enemies’ tactics and defenses in the first battle…
It does seem to be a time honored military practice, the feigned retreat.
Probably falls in to the category of one way or another, suckering your opponent into a trap and then annihilating him. Could be Hannibal’s soft center at Canae, the Russians “hey, come and gets us, we are just barely holding on” defense of Stalingrad, to the American Search and Destroy tactics in Vietnam, which was nothing more than walk out into the boonies and get your ass surrounded, so you can call in the firepower.
Hey whatever works.
There is no doubt in my mind the Russian General Staff is not concerned in the slighest with these Ukraine “offensives,” other than they might help them in task that lies ahead.
One thing I have rarely seen mentioned, if at all, throughout this war, is there is glory to be had here, on the battlefield, for many Russian professional military men. I do not mean this as a negative in any way. It’s just the way it is, and always has been.
Glory in the “martial arts” I would simply define as a soldier and/or warrior having an opportunity to perform and distinguish himself in his chosen profession.
Nothing more, nothing less.
And to think this isn’t a factor in Kremlin machinations is niave. Putin is under great pressures that are coming at him from many directions, but I would submit, not the least of these pressures is coming at him from the upper echelon of his officer corps, which are undoubtely chomping at the bit to engage in a once in a lifetime opportunity, to test by fire skills they have been honing for decades.
Carlton Meyer says
Rail, the key to logistics. Here is Ukraine’s railway map.
Of course lots of stuff comes into North Sea ports and is shipped by rail to Ukraine, a very, very long trip. The USA now ships most stuff to Greece then up to Romania to Izmail. It seems the Turks won’t let war material into the Black Sea and the Russians might sink such ships.
Once the Russians push on Odessa, that key log route gets cut.
” . . . if your panties are in a knot over “Russia losing territory”, I suggest you take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down. . . .”
Sir Larry, what a WORDSMITH you are! I nearly howled!
My bet is that Russia gives Zelensky an order to vacate its newly aquired territory, and when he inevitably refuses, we’ll see ‘results’. (A Russian friend of mine was caught up in the western hysteria over the mobilization last week, and as we discussed the horrors of the Nazi regime and their actions, she admitted the necessity of the SMO, but told me that patience was wearing thin and they need to see results for the sacrifice).
As Escobar put it, “the baby bears are coming home”, and that does not bode well for the fools who oppose it.
Jim Giles says
For those of you who depend on the jewsmedia as journalism, i.e., your only source of news, you might consider watching the videos at the link above.
Are you baiting the Ukrainians?
But the bigger question is what will ZOG do next because ZOG will NEVER stand down and leave Russia alone. ZOG blew up your Nord Stream pipelines which is proof they are willing to do whatever it takes to oust you.
Can you explain why nuclear war is highly unlikely?
Will you use nuclear weapons if necessary to retake Taiwan? And can you count on Russia’s support?
Radio Free Mississippi
P.S. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/06/xi-putin-china-russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-sco/ Mr. Singleton, How important is psyops in warfare?
Blue Thunder says
Rail infrastructure is absolutely paramount for swift movement of heavy military equipment and munition. The more so in Ukraine with it’s relatively vast distances. Hence it’s somewhat incomprehensible to me why the rail infrastructure has been left practically untouched.
Hence all rail infrastructure such as track, bridges, tunnels, switches, depots, warehouse, electrical supporting transformers, overhead lines, etc. must be completely wiped out from Odessa all the way to the Polish border.
Russia can get very hurt toying around longer than necessary with the tool of the Beast (Ukraine). What needs to be done, needs to be done.
It is absolutely the great mystery of the war so far; why are the Russians allowing the enemy to move about wherever they please?
There is only one explanation in my estimation, seeing has I don’t buy for a minute the Russian Federation feels bound by legalities or is incapable laying track or quickly building a bridge they have destroyed, once the war is over.
I think the Russians wanted the Ukraine Army to be freed up to feed the contact line, so their artillery could exterminate them on the cheap, and do so mostly, far away from prying eyes.
Let’s face it, for the Russians, the first 7 months of this war were about negotiating their way out this, and the best way to do it, they felt, was to kill so many of Ukraine’s fighting men that Big Z would forced to beg Washington to allow him to surrender.
But, as always, Putin underestimated not only the pathelogical nature of those in charge inside the Beltway, but even more so, their resolve.
If my country has proved anything, we have proved we are more than willing to fight a 20 year war, and to think we wouldn’t be up for doing so again, especially considering we are fighting this one through some hapless proxies, was a tragic miscalculation on Putin’s part.
In my opinion.
Curt Nichols says
I have no doubts that Russia will win. But right now, Ukrainian death squads are murdering Russian speakers in the newly taken areas. Because Putin was fucking around and handjobbing his European buddies. He still thinks that they will listen to reason. This is a war. And Putin, just like our idiots in the US, will fight a “political” war. While people die. I hope the pressure in Russia rises, and makes Putin get off his ass.
Pito from Mescalito says
I don’t know, Larry. I’m beginning at furtive moments to have my doubts. Or as Jeffrey Epstein said to his last lawyer as he sensed that serial child molesting with his fantastically rich and powerful friends might not be working out for him:
When are you going to start throwing some heat?
Today I was thinking, why is Russia not responding, why are they constantly pulling back!?
Have they reacted too late and are they now in a situation that gives them no other option?
Personally, I think it’s thoughtful when one considers that demilitarization and denazification was their primary goal and hasn’t changed.
To achieve this, they would have to travel all the way west to reach their goal.
But let’s assume they are now withdrawing to perform denazification and demilitarization in the area where the enemy no longer has a human shield, then a withdrawal is a very good move.
Where until now they had to work very carefully, they now know that this is in the past.
Had they gone further west they would still have the same problem of the human shield.
They can start again from a certain point with the advantage of being less hindered, their supply is much shorter and the enemy will want to keep their gained ground at all costs so that they will send even more troops to hold their ground, which suits Russia. as their tactics have worked very well so far and may work even better than before.
You would call the rout at Blakliya and Izyum a methodical withdraw ?
I remember people here were in disbelief, calling that fiasco a planned Russian trap. Someone here 🙂 even refused to believe Ukrainians have already entered Izyum, demanding journalistic report as proof.
Liman is the only area in the northeast where the Russian held the line somewhat.
Wagner has been trying to take Bakhmut for months. Their advance there is measured by meters/week. Soon they will probably give up because they will be needed elsewhere to plug the gaps.
In Kherson Ukrainians are also making rapid progress despite a large concentration of Russian troops there. Apparently the Russians haven’t prepared defense in depth and have no prepared positions to fall back to.
This is not how a professional, modern army functions.
For all those “concern” trolls around here saying Russia should be doing this or that quickly etc. How long did Putin and co spend rebuilding Russia to the point where could even conceive taking this on, not to mention Syria (Funny how all the so called “experts” in the West keep harping on about Russia’s logistical problems when they ran the Syria op just fine). Putin and co spent 20 years rebuilding Russia, which means they have patience and I don’t think they’re going to throw that all out the window. I think he meant what he said that these regions are Russia forever (a lot longer than 20 years btw).
I find it absolutely amazing how the military types on all the web pages I have visited quote Sun Tzu and Clausewitz and no one seems to have bothered to study the leading 20th century military theorist—Liddell Hart and the Strategy of the Indirect approach. Everyone wants to talk about how the US does not have a clue on how to fight a war.
Of course the US has suffered fewer combat casualties in all of f its foreign wars combined than Russia suffered at Stalingrad alone—-the US in response to Putins December ultimatum told Putin it will be a long war. Absent an all out nuclear exchange, a study of Serbia’s defense against the Austrian-Hungarians in 1914 and China’s defense against Japan in 1936 might be instructive.
Here in the heartland of Ohio paid $3.65 gal. for gas yesterday (went up a dime in response to OPEC’s move today). Everyone who wants a job has one, and Intel is building a chip factory down the road—scheduled togo online in 2024– a Blue wave is forming so it seems
Larry Johnson says
What drugs are you taking?
just saying says
The Zelensky powder.
Indications are that a large number of “mercenaries” are filling the ranks of the Ukies. English speakers, maybe some Africana. So NATO likely is not just supplying a huge amount of weaponry, but may also be fielding a significant chunk of the Ukie forces. More than likely, intel and operation of high-tech NATO weaponry is done by “the combined West.”
How many NATO/“combined-West” spooks and officers were incinerated in the bowels of Azovstal not so long ago, to “avoid embarrassment”?
At what point does this intramural infilling of WestWorld creatures cause this whole thing to patently and irretrievably flip from a nominal SMO to what it is with the cosmoline and tarps removed, plain old WW III, the Russians(Chinese and a few others) against the Anglo-and-unnameable-other forces? And will that invoke, eventually, and how soon, the release of sub-launched and other end-of-world weapons, leading to the Dead Hand system in Russia loosing their particularly insane Kraken?
The skids are already greased to let small pushes start the slide into mass destruction. What, among all the many possibilities, would be the catalyst that brings it about?
No Africans. Those are black Americans on the ground in Ukraine.
A few observations:
I also had noticed on telegram channels huge trainloads of new equipment. The other poster didn’t put up a YT link: so here’s one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZyBShwX4oc&ab_channel=OdoPuiuEvents
I remember in the early part of the war being astonished at the amount of kit Ukrainian infantry squads got, particularly ATGMs like NLAW or Javelin, I saw videos with every other man having one, the rest toting 2 disposable rocket launchers. I couldn’t see anything of that in video 2.
A few tin can humvees riding around without air, artillery, mortar or tank support is laughable, if it wasn’t so sad for those poor press-ganged Ukranian conscripts (excluding the Nazis, of course, they can exit to Valhalla as soon as poss.)
I should note, and of course anyone can call themselves anything in their username, that “Ex18E” in normal english means “Former Spec Ops Communications Sergeant.”
If I had a Military Occupation Specialty (MOS) it would be 999z: unfit armchair tactician.:-)
So if there is a serious disconnect between the narrative and reality in the media for public consumption…..and material support is winding down then it is safe to assume there is a logical but unpublished reason for the scaling back. The so called battles and offensive being touted as a Russian collapse are actually insignificant in scale and effects….but the Western public’s perception and opinion is being manipulated to the subconscious conclusion that Russia is losing badly and now in desperation will cross the line of no return and use tactical nukes…which In turn…. the U.S will destroy the Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons. That is the narrative being pushed in my opinion. With information leaked about transfer of 4 low yield nuclear devices to Ukraine some months ago….I fear this false flag event will be reality soon enough
Roger Furer says
My thoughts on what’s happening in the Kharkov offensive are similar to what you say about Kherson. It is a classic tactic; draw them in, get their supply lines extended, build up your forces, strike at the time and place of YOUR choosing. Meanwhile work on getting rid of the fortifications near Donetsk. And of course Russia undoubtedly has plans within plans, within plans. 6D chess indeed.
Hal Duell says
Firstly let me say that in a previous thread I got it wrong when I said that there would be no jockeying for position in Kherson. Clearly there has been jockeying there with Russia pulling back enabling Ukraine to, as in the Kharkiv region, push on an open door. But again, this has been accompanied by a loss of Ukrainian lives and military materiel, losses that will be difficult if not impossible to replace.
Putin’s gambit to lure Ukraine into extending itself into open land thereby making themselves vulnerable to a Russian counter attack seems to be working. If the reports that Ukraine has taken forces from Odessa to bolster the action now under way in Kherson are true, and if a counter attack by Russia does happen, this gambit may have not just immediate benefits to Russia but future benefits as well if Odessa comes under attack.
There is some speculation that Russia has painted itself into a corner and is looking at being pushed out of what was Ukraine before the recent referenda. I don’t buy that. Russia did not incorporate the four regions into the Russian Federation just to give them up. That’s just not going to happen. As Brian Berletic points out, the necessary supply of the armaments needed to conduct an industrial war all favor Russia.
It’s raining right now across the Pontic Steppes. That will soon change.
A quick question about lifting the sanctions on Venezuela: Does that include the UK releasing Venezuela’s gold reserves currently being held in UK bank vaults?
If your enemy has all the vacant land around your city, include roads in and out, then who controls your city?
Eric Newhill says
I am sympathetic to what you have been saying, Ash. Your perspective should not be dismissed too lightly, in my humble opinion.
I’m 92.5% with the main concepts being championed here – Russia is waiting for the fresh troops to come into the newly incorporated territory. While waiting, there is no reason to waste the troops currently in country defending against an unstainable UKR offense. Better to fall back, pound the Ukros and further reduce them. Time is on Russia’s side as the US/NATO runs out of ordnance to send to UKR, faces economic hardships and runs out of Ukros to send to their deaths. Sure, the PR hit is distasteful, but it also gets the Russian population riled up to a fever pitch to support a widening of the SMO to a full-blown war.
If the Ukros begin to surround a key city, the Russians can maneuver and eliminate the threat of cordon or to choke points. That said, it sure isn’t a game I’d want to play for long if I was Putin. It’s simply too risky to keep at it. US/NATO can find plenty of foreign troops (mercs and others) to fill slots left by dead Ukros and to press the attacks that may be cutting off cities. I hear mercs are being paid well by the coalition against Russia. Which is why I keep saying that I expect the Russians to unleash hell on Ukros in and immediately facing the new territories within a couple weeks, three on the outside – at which point I call BS on the whole thing and accept that Russia screwed up, badly, and lost.
Everyone knows that a high school football team has no chance whatsoever of defeating or performing well against a NFL team. Keeping this in mind, there is no way that Russia’s third stringers are going to perform well once they are sent to the front lines in Ukraine. Putin and his generals are counting on the 300,000 men they have just conscripted to somehow defeat the motivated, well-trained, and battle-hardened Ukrainian army. Most of these conscripted men are out of shape and haven’t touched a weapon in 20 years, and when they did serve years ago in the Russian army, their training was generally inadequate. And, they are not going to be provided adequate training this time, either; instead, most of them will just be ordered to don a uniform and will be shipped right away to the front lines. Third stringers do not win wars; they just get slaughtered.
Larry Johnson says
Are you really this obtuse? You are making up nonsense without one shred of evidence. Keep it up and I will ban you. You want to make the argument that Ukraine is fielding frontline, experienced warriors? Cut me a break.
The conscripts are probably there to take the current spots of proper Russian Army guys who will then join the front.
Do you understand?
How’s this for a big old sports buff like you.
When your best players are on the field the benches are not empty, the reserves are called to sit there. Conscripts are reserves. Comprendo?
You do not take a pilot and put a sniper reserve. Better to get a retired pilot who is capable of learning to speed in 3 months.
GV, perfect psycho-projection.
You are perfectly describing the Ukie Army.
This is such a good place to be and to think that I actually made a donation! And I do that very, very seldom but I like how you do things Larry. Oh and I am a grandson of two soldiers at King’s Mountain, NC back in the day.
Off topic: just some information about Nord Stream 2.
Gazprom Ready to Ship Gas Via Shelved Nord Stream 2 Pipeline One line of Nord Stream 2 may be undamaged after attacks Leaks have stopped in three other strings of Nord Stream pipes.
The vaunted US Navy screwed up. In the murky depths of the Baltic Sea they planted their explosives to blow up the ***FOUR*** pipes of the NS 1 & NS2 gas pipelines. (You didn’t know there were four pipes, did you? Neither did I.) But they appear to have screwed up and placed two of the explosive packages on one of the NS2 pipes — line A — leaving the other pipe — line B — with no explosive charge, and subsequently ***NO DAMAGE***. Line B is therefore ***READY TO GO*** with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters per year … which for comparison is 50% of total capacity of Nordstream 1, which as you may recall was recently reduced to 20% capacity before being shut down completely.
Too busy checking their pronouns!
Tom S. says
The guy assigned that line wasn’t allowed to deploy because he was unvaxxed.
Henry Rech says
Has it been confirmed that an attempt was made to destroy all four pipelines or is that not yet determined?
If it has been confirmed how was it confirmed?
Valhalla Rising says
Hey all…this is a MUST READ…the article ties in Clausewitz’ concepts…reminds me of US Army War College reading–though I doubt this article is required reading there now lol:
Henry Rech says
Found on the Intel Slava Z twitter feed:
“The head of the KGB of the Republic of Belarus said that the opposition forces, with the support of the West, are considering the possibility of an armed group penetrating the country and seizing one regional center to create a bridgehead for advancing to Minsk.”
“The regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia is ready to deploy and carry out tasks for the armed defense of the union state, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said.”
Could Belarusians be building a rationale to participate in massive assault on Ukraine on several fronts?
Tom S. says
As I understand it, now that the new regions have formally become part of the Federation, Belarus can join in this soirée as they will. They are now all one big happy “union state” after all. No need to “build a rationale”.
“Rolling across wide open plains represents a feel good moment, but this territory is not defensible once Russia decides to counter attack because Ukraine does not have the air power and artillery fires to withstand a concentrated attack. Russia, however, has the air capability, tanks, artillery and rockets to sustain an attack once they decide to move.”
Russia’s ability to fly over a battlefield with their fighter planes seems low, if not non-existent. It seems the probability of being shutdown is too high.
shutdown -> shot down
If Russia could strafe or bomb the battlefield at will it seems that Ukraine would not be able to advance. Tanks and such would be sitting ducks. If they can do it in limited means, what conditions make it possible?
You are contradicting yourself.
If you think Russia planes can’t fly because of danger then ukrinato obviously do have defensive weapons to withstand attacks and limit tactics.
If you take out your enemies strongest weapons – airpower, drones. You limit their ability to fight a modern war. They are now level on the ground with you.
So it’s back to the trenches and bang bang bang and good tactics, human force and accurate munitions
But I don’t think Russia has wanted to expose it’s airforce much yet. That may change. NATO I am sure will fly in at some point and for military fans we may get to see incredible actual war between US and Russia airforce. Few things beat watching a skilled fighter pilot in a top of the range aircraft. Maybe not.
I expect next to that by more Russian ships will be hit by NATO. They seem to be all in on water damage stuff. That by time of month.
US probably has to neutralise Russian navy in region before Russia advances. And start flying sorties close to lines.
I have very little doubt that US will aim to destroy as much as possible before Russian escalation.
I expect to see white phosphorus, cluster bombs, mines, and biological weapons.
There are ways to contaminate land and water beyond nuclear.
Children in Vietnam, Japan, Iraq, Libya, Syria are being born deformed still. Well done America, UK, France! You won, so many sick kids with a made by NATO sticker…Cancer rates double global averages. Won’t take alot to turn Donbass into a toxic dump. That seems almost inevitable.
But for the West especially Britain, karma does not seem to exist. They are charmed. And somehow that but luckier than the rest. For now.
By the way HAPPY BIRTHDAY VLADIMIR VLADIMIROVICH PUTIN!
Seventy years old tomorrow October 7th. A good age – well aged – excellent vintage.
Charles E. Fromage says
US Conservatives are finally starting to find a voice, and a few brave politicians are not intimidated by the “Slava Ukraini” sloganeering, while more smart politicians will stake claim to the “defund Ukraine war” position.
its not large yet, but it is growing steadily – and the clock is ticking on unlimited DC support for Ukraine.
Interesting. Can you post any links?
I so far have seen Larry and Tucker Carlson as amongst few voices others in America actually seeking truth, showing courage and higher thinking.
Not aware of any US politician that’s anti war. Anti cost maybe. But not for truth, justice and common sense.
Paulo Guerra says
No doubt, Brian Berletic is one of the best analysts of the conflict in Ukraine since the beginning. And two orders of reason ciontribuen for this. His knowledge of military maneuver and his deep understanding of US geostrategic positioning. The way the US moves around the world. Even though it’s based in Asia.
And I would like remind another brilliant analyst of the conflict who goes more unnoticed when he even followed the early days of the conflict in Donbass as a NATO officer investigating the proliferation of small arms. Colonel of Swiss intelligence, a brilliant geostrategic analyst with several published works, lately on the disinformation of the Western MSM, who knows the conflict in Ukraine and Russian operational art like few others. Jacques Baud. As usual in Postil Magazine: https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/
If Ibwas Putin I would unleash the most powerful weapon in the modern world, the economic migrant. Russia could fund an NGO to shuttle Africans fleeing poverty to the city on the hill, America. Lets lowball the uearly cost of care per migrant at 25k and say would take 5k to drop them off, 5x on Putin’s money the first year but those migrants will not only stay but bring in additional family members. Its cheap, it’s effective, it’s non kinetic. Hell because the West has been doing it to itself it is likely the media would choose to ignore it as well. Its hard to get that level of lopsided returns on the battlefield so I am honestly surprised foriegn competitors are not doing this on an industrial scale.
You already did that. It was called slavery.
Dumb thick racist asswhole.
Many places on Africa are better than half the shithole areas in the US.
Educate yourself, google, images
Start with that you fool.
Ps. Most African countries have higher literacy rates than America. And less paedophiles. plus no men competing in women’s sports.
I’ve been to your country and waded knee deep on beggars and needles and faeces on pavement. You will never see that in Africa.
What enormous pressure.
It is difficult to play chess when your opponent is eating the pieces and stuffing them up his bum (see Biden, Macron, all Poles, Truss).
There is an Indian (Asia) saying – never be.a child with children.
So what does he do? How do you get into the head of a bad bad NATO baby?
The answer is you try to play properly and you have to give up.
Spare the rod and spoil the child. Putin needs to bend Biden Blinken and Truss over his knee and spank them. This is after all what be Blinken has dreamed of.
Spank them Putin, those kids terrorising the whole damn street, spank them.
But first. Pass the spanking law.