Following up on my last piece about the situation on the ground in Ukraine, I encourage you to watch Brian Berletic’s latest video. He puts the logistics picture into proper perspective. For a young guy he is a wise head.
The following video shows you the “success” of the Ukrainian offensive. Pay close attention to the number of large cities they are capturing.
Cities? Nope. None. Rolling across wide open plains represents a feel good moment, but this territory is not defensible once Russia decides to counter attack because Ukraine does not have the air power and artillery fires to withstand a concentrated attack. Russia, however, has the air capability, tanks, artillery and rockets to sustain an attack once they decide to move.
It appears to me that Russia is baiting Ukraine to take territory and then face the task of trying to take a city Russia holds, such as Kherson. If Ukaine wishes to oust Russia from Kherson it will have to mass forces necessary to conduct the block to block fighting that Russia did when it captured Mariupol. Remember that?
Even if this is not a Russian plan (i.e., baiting the Ukrainians) the outcome will be the same. Ukraine will have to conduct a frontal assault on the city of Kherson and, in order to do this, will have to mass troops and equipment that will be easy targets for Russian artillery, missiles and bombs. Ukraine has no military power to counter what Russia can unleash. So, if your panties are in a knot over “Russia losing territory”, I suggest you take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down.
Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure. Why? This is essential in order to conduct coordinated maneuver warfare, which is what Russia is expected to unleash once its forces are properly manned and in position.
Important to remember that all of the military action on the ground in Ukraine will be a sideshow compared to the economic warfare that will wrack Europe. The United States and Europe got a big bucket of cold water poured over their heads today with OPEC+’s announcement that they will cut production by two million barrels of oil. No matter how much lipstick Biden and Blinken try to put on this pig, OPEC+’s message to the west is clear–fuck off! If foreigners really believed that Russia was getting its ass handed to it, do you think the OPEC nations would stick their neck out and adopt a policy that helps Russia? I don’t.