This is the article I intended to write but Michael Vlahos beat me to it. Why try to reinvent the wheel when Michael makes a perfect one? Vlahos wrote, The Ukrainian Army Is Breaking. Here are the highlights (I encourage you to read his entire article.)
A defeated army and a broken one are two different things. An army merely defeated in battle can often make successful withdrawals, reform itself, and reconstitute its strength—as Rome did after its humiliation at Cannae, eventually destroying its great rival, Carthage. But when whole armies break, when they lose their will to fight, the whole nation can likewise break. That is what happened to the great empires in World War I. It is also the fate awaiting the Ukrainian army. . . .
The first negative-feedback bellow is when a war that began full of high hopes seems suddenly unwinnable. Early victories are now old memories. More battles are lost than won, and the costs of battle keep rising to the very threshold of human endurance—and then rise again. The second is when external support from friends and allies begins to evaporate. This is an especially acute negative factor if allied support is the emotional foundation of the army’s belief in ultimate victory. Third and finally, those who initiated the war, those who promised a road paved with victory, and who vowed that the world would support the army until victory was won—no matter how long it takes—are increasingly seen as liars and deceivers. The army—the entire nation—has been betrayed by its leaders.
All this has descended on Ukraine in the past six weeks.
There have been no victories—not even bloody and debilitating wins like in the Fourth Battle of Karkhov—for nearly a year. Western leaders still profess that their support will continue. Yet the Western Alliance now admits it didn’t give Ukrainians nearly enough good stuff for even modest tactical gains in their ongoing, sacrificial offensive—and knew it going in. And increasingly, Ukrainian unit-level commanders are accusing higher leaders of simply using them as cannon-fodder to satisfy NATO overlords. Not just platoons, but larger units are surrendering to Russian forces. Morale is cratering. . . .
Yet in casualties-to-population terms, Ukrainian military losses, after more than 500 days of war, are approaching those sustained by Germany in World War I over more than 1,500 days. This is a catastrophic attrition rate, compounded by all three negative feedback loops that can break an army and a nation. Throughout the spring and summer, Ukrainian forces were thrown into battle and ground down. By autumn, the fighting army will have been spent—the tragic fate of Ukraine’s Best in 2023. By September, what is left will be twisting, and bending toward breaking, in the remorseless winds of war.
Without massive combat air support, mobile artillery and mobile air defense, Ukrainian troops are sitting ducks and cannot breach the Surovikin defensive lines that were built starting last October. The bravery, the will to fight and the desire for victory on the part of the Ukrainian forces are not enough to overwhelm Russia’s integrated defense, which employs ISR, artillery, air strikes, tanks and ground forces in a coordinated operation. Any large movement of Ukrainian forces is detected by Russia and the attacking Ukrainians are met with a barrage of bombs, missiles and shells. Ukraine’s ground forces have paid a terrible price and Kiev does not have the manpower resources to replace its losses.
It appears that the Ukrainians are trying to re-group, but there is no clear strategic plan to defeat the robust Russian defenses. August is likely to be the decisive moment in the war in Ukraine — the forces Ukraine assembled for the long-awaited counter offensive have been decimated and Ukraine now confronts the dilemma of trying to replace losses in men and material without having time to train a new army that is capable of continuing the fight. I believe that this means that Zelensky’s days in power are numbered.
It’s paywalled so thanks for sharing. I’d like to repost from Substack but it’s not on yours yet. Be great if you’d make it available to non-paying subsrcibers too.
Most of what I read here is what Douglas Macgregor laid out recently with Judge Napolitano.
Just go and search under Douglas Macgregor Ph.D. He has some great interviews that will cover what is written here.
Posted this before, but don’t see it.
Vlahos’s article is freely available at:
https://www.voiceofeurope.com/the-us-exploits-the-war-in-ukraine-for-personal-enrichment-and-undermines-us-national-security/
Worth following the links to flesh out the details.
These two links are of prime interest:
https://mwi.usma.edu/the-russian-way-of-war-in-ukraine-a-military-approach-nine-decades-in-the-making/
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dissecting-west-point-think-tanks
Thank you for posting the link, but direct one is:
https://www.voiceofeurope.com/the-ukrainian-army-is-breaking-michael-vlahos-compact-mag/
Can’t read the whole article since it’s paywalled, but I think you’ll find that not until the Ukranazis begin conscripting the children of the rich and powerful will they have approached the breaking point. They still have a way to go until then.
In order to break the AFU, Russia will have to go on the offensive. Until that happens we have to wait and see if on todays battlefield an offensive is even possible, given the amount of drones, long distance precision weapons etc.
Russia is stronger, of that there is no doubt. But given todays weapon systems a small army can inflict heavy losses on a bigger army. Maybe heavy enough to stop them?
Without NATO intelligence, Russia would walk all over the AFU. But precisely that intelligence cannot be attacked.
Nope, in order to break the AFU, Russia has to do exactly what is doing now. Killing 800-1,000 AFU soldiers a day, and God knows how many wounded, deserters, prisoners, and ‘missing’.
That’s day in and day out. 30,000 dead, and probably 3x the rest which sums to 100,000 incapacitated per month.
My guesstimates is they have 700K soldiers around, then ~7 months. The NarkoFuhrer will round up all the young, old, and babushca, so lets say another meat year
Agreed. Every passing day confirms that Prigozhin’s impatient push in Bakhmut was misplaced. There is no need to risk heavy Russian losses to win this war, and certainly not as long as the Ukrainian commanders are rash enough to keep attacking.
It wasn’t misplaced and impatient push, but feed-my-ego and make-me-great push. He knew what he was doing. Those losses are “worth it” from his point of view. Prigozhin have a few similarites with Zelensky, in addition to their love for tactical gear photoshoots on the frontlines.
Ive seen a theory that stated that the significance of Bakhmut is that the battle bought time for the mobilized Russians to be fully trained and for the defensive lines to be completed
Morever, it’s not a mistake to press the attack once you’ve gained a strategic advantage by surrounding your enemy on three sides, which means you can hit the enemy with arty from three sides. This is what Russia managed to do. At that point, it was Ukraine that was being irrational in that they continued to send one brigade after another into that fire sack
It can only have been a mistake if the casualty ratio greatly favored Ukraine. It may have started that way, but it certainly didnt end that way
That theory is valid. Russia had severe lack of troops back then, because of late mobilization. Bakhmut was suitable place for long attritional battle, aka meatgrinder. Supposedly, it was Surovikin’s plan all along. Taking city was not the (primary) goal.
It’s not about pushing per se, but about pushing too much, and having additional casualties, in order to take a city a month or two earlier. Why break the fire sack, if enemy keeps on pouring troops in? With less pushing, battle for the city might be still going on, but more soldiers would be alive (on the Russian side, that is).
The ending casualty ratio did not favor Ukraine, but it was still too bad for “modern Russian standards”. I don’t think it is justifiable, and I blame the bald “enterpreneur”. He was into taking Bakmhut, as much as Zelensky was into keeping it. They are made of the same cloth, though Zelensky is much worse actor and comedian.
Exactly, why bother with an offensive! I don’t understand why some believe the Russians should go gung-ho and attack. Isn’t it obvious that they built 3, that’s 3, lines of defence. They didn’t construct these lines of defence as a ruse or for a laugh.
NATO would love the Russians to go on the offensive as it means the Russians stretching their supply lines, putting thousands of their soldiers and machinery into a kill zone and potentially losing the support of the Russian people. Anybody who thinks Russia should go on the offensive should maybe stop thinking that their playing world of tanks or some other computer game. Reality is real, blood is real, death means death!
I would say that World of Tanks players are amongst those with better than average understanding. They know that charging forwards gets you killed fast. 🙂
You are right, attriting the enemy is more economical from a defensive position. I think Russia will continue its economy of force strategy which involves mostly defensive work, but it will also continue small offensives where/when they make sense. These offensives are typically counters, preceded by large Ukrainian losses in the sector, and artillery preparation. I also think some big arrow moves might be possible, but their generals aren’t simply going to draw big arrows on a map like the Ukrainians did in June, they will only perform big arrow moves with caution and when conditions are extremely favorable.
Don’t forget one thing, what ever Russia break’s it’s will have to rebuild. So let’s just fight here in this already destroyed city. Just saying
Very important thing that often goes unmentioned.
Agreed.
Why change something that is working so well.
It is clear that the people running Ukraine (the US) don’t give a fuck about ordinary Ukrainians and I would say that the Elensky regime cares even less. Hitler abandoned his people when he realised he was losing and blamed it all on them. “They didn’t deserve him.”
That said, it is pretty much a given that Elensky will continue to feed in more Ukrainians, untrained, under-lead and under-armed.
Elensky is a Russian asset that just keeps giving.
They will run out of time.
The NATO/Ukr will eventually find a way to counter the Russians. Russian losses are mounting btw, especially in the rear.
If Russia does not swat this wasp sooner or later, the RAF will die of a thousand stings.
Agreed
Which losses are you talking about. The casualty ratio is increasing for Ukraine more and more in a favorable way for the Russians.
I’m sure that the Russian General Staff has a good grasp of the situation than random people like you
People may be random, but the talking points are not. They are written by the best scriptwriteres money can buy (which isn’t much because they are on a strike).
I would argue that the Ukrainian army is NOT defeated or broken.
That may happen in 1-2 years (my guesstimate is 2025). The people from that region will never accept defeat. 3000+ years of wars teach you that. Russians are doing what are supposed to do, exterminating all the weeds with turned Ukrainians, at their borders. It’s a long and cruel war, with only ONE winner – Russia.
The denazification and demilitarization concepts are vague enough for the next few years.
Shoigu signs about 40,000 new military volunteers per month. That’s 400,000 in 10 months. The ‘kill them all now’ party from Moscow want 500,000 at least to destroy all Ukraine with on large blow.
I believe Putin and Shoigu believe in slowly, but surely action. Another winter in Ukraine and Europe will be devastating.
You really do not understand the people of that region.
They’ll be dead or slaves to the new rules. Russia will go through 30M of them, one by one. 20-30 years from now nobody will used the Ukrainian name ever. (no man, woman or child)
And that was NOT what Russia has in mind in 1990.
BTW they can erase many other countries, this is why the Russian Bear should have never been woken up. They just wanted to sell oil and gas.
Now, they’ll have close to 1,000,000 attack troops trained, ready and armed.
People in the region bought into the “American Dream” and the “Western Values” BS. After the war, they want to become what West Germany was after WWII (their own words). Poland have similar replace-Germany fantasies.
The necessities of war promotes development of technology and weaponry, both offensive and defensive. Armies often go into a conflict with doctrine, strategy and tactics based on training developed from the lessons of the last war they studied.
On both sides of the lines in the military-technical-solution in Ukraine, it seems to me that men, materials and equipment are but ducks, sitting or otherwise, awaiting destruction from drone-based assets. Either targeting information relayed to distant artillery or missiles, or directly from loitering suicide drones. Add to this remote mining capabilities makes any advance very costly, if possible at all.
Until one side gains air superiority in the battle of the drones, that deprives the other side of intelligence and targeting information, I don’t see major breakthroughs and big-arrow advances that the media and politicians crave. And the trench warfare, reminiscent of WW1 is no better, with the poor buggers in the trenches subject to random destruction from the air at any moment.
At present, the drones (offensive capability) has the upper hand and the guys on the ground are vulnerable in all but bad weather. I expect the scientists and engineers are busy in the labs developing countermeasures to low-cost, stealthy drones. Complex air defence systems with million-dollar-a-shot missiles would seem impractical for bringing down a quadcopter adapted to drop grenades.
We’re back to the strategy and tactics of attrition, which is all well and good if you’re not in the trenches waiting to be attritted.
Full article reposted here
https://www.voiceofeurope.com/es/the-ukrainian-army-is-breaking-michael-vlahos-compact-mag/
Thanks for that link. I agree with Mr. Vlahos – the situation is completely unstable and things are coming apart for Ukraine.
What puzzles me is why the Ukrainians have fought with such determination for as long as they have. It’s my suspicion NATO has been engaged in extensive propaganda efforts there for many, many years. If the young people have been totally immersed in a “belief system” emphasizing either their own superiority or the subhuman nature of all things Russian, might not that explain their determination to this point?
On another topic, this morning I saw a headline about the continuing success of the sea-based “drones”. If I was in the Russian command system, right about now I’d be chanting “capture Odessa” at every opportunity.
Russian military unimpressed by captured Swedish armor
https://www.rt.com/russia/580812-swedish-cv90-unimpressive-russia/
The RPG 7 was developed in 1961!
Sights were improved and the shaped charge grenades.
Reliable as the AK.
Also the amercan silent rifle, could be a barret,
is not reliable in the trenches under continuous use.
It is susceptible to dirt and needs care of a jeweler.
https://t.me/neuesausrussland/15562
Glorifying CV90 is one of the dumbest thing I have seen in recent times. Its cannon is even older than RPG-7, and armor is comparable to other modern IFVs (meaning, it’s thin). It’s as mediocre as it can be.
Slowly breaking the UKR army, means also slowly breaking the US/UK/EU economies. Africa is also challenging its former lords from EU. South America starts to regroup the region into a more integrated economy and embracing BRICS.
Europe and US will end poor, socially broken, without energetic resources and isolated from the new real power.
Anyone not convinced Ukraine is defeated can just look at their mainstream newspaper.
They are all running with drone stories about how bright Ukrainians are winning the drone wars with clever designs, and linking it to “terrifying Russia” with direct attacks on Moscow.
Clearly there must be more important news in Ukraine which is not being reported.
But no, not even an empty village being encircled by Ukraine (the story of the last month).
The goal is to scare Putin, and make him soil his pants. That would initiate regime change.
Nothing that the West predicted happened yet all that happened was easily predictable. The other top article of today provides a good explanation.
Worth noting that the majority of Americans in a recent poll opposed further aid to Ukraine:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
A CV 90 is captured, no comments in Swedish media,
but silent tears, very secret,
park it outside the Swedish embassy in Moscow. In Stock-
holm they changed the bus-stop’s name outside the
Russian embassy, to: “The free Ukrainian place”, so cheap and childish feel-good politicians, unbelievable creeps,the graffity
generation
In EU we are blocked from RT,
locked up in the EU-prison, that’s very rude an insulting against us, we, the people, EU
is like the old Soviet Union, a prison in a way, with total surveillance, 24/7, checking our bankaccounts, asking “have you a political mission”, Stasis wet dream came true, this controlmania was caused of the 9/11, the (1.)”terrorists” ,before that the(2.) “commun-ism” and now (3.)Ukraine the elites always use fear-mong-ering, to keep us frightened, and subordinated. What’s next?
Eating bugs is next.
Col. Douglas Macgregor said it best when he described the war mongers in Washington as having “no humanity”. They are truly patently evil!
“August is likely to be the decisive moment in the war in Ukraine — the forces Ukraine assembled for the long-awaited counter offensive have been decimated and Ukraine now confronts the dilemma of trying to replace losses in men and material without having time to train a new army that is capable of continuing the fight. I believe that this means that Zelensky’s days in power are numbered.”
Word art by Larry C. Johnson. 👍 The reality.
Been saying this for a while now
Zelensky is a Russian speaking Jew
Most Russian speaking Jews were raised to hate Nazis
Is he any different? He’s an actor after all and his sponsors are Khazarian homeless
Not exactly lovers of Hitler…
Russian speaking Jews that were raised to hate Nazis are on Russian side, like Yaakov Kedmi. Prigozhin is on his own side.
Zelensky’s bosses are Nuland, Blinken, etc. His creator and former owner is Kolomoysky. Kolomoysky also financed Azov, Aidar, and who-knows-what other Nazis. All mentioned are Jewish/Khazarian/whateveryouwannacallthem as far as I know. Modern Nazis are not a threat to them, but a tool. A disposable tool. They also share hate for Russians. Nazis and Russians killing each other is a double win for Nuland. Some would say it’s intentional depopulation project, but I would not go that far.
Why would you not say it is an intentional depopulation project ? Most of the neocons are Jewish by ethnicity and Israeli media have published info about the Chabad Lubavitcher project for a “New Jerusalem” in what will be the former Ukraine. Google it and see for yourself. Too many people fear for their careers and even for their lives, that they don’t want to criticize even the obvious negatives about Israel, and taking some time to consider that a handful of powerful Jews might be preparing a new Zion for when the ZIonists are pushed out of Israel. Ask yourself this: If you were Jewish and concerned about where the Israeli Jews will be living in 2050, would you not be attracted to the Ukraine ? Dr. Michael Hudson, the smartest economist around, can’t understand this seeming paradox: In every normal nation, the wealthy elite make decisions which put more money and power into their pockets. But what the West is doing is impoverishing the West and its elite. How can this be? Why would they harm themselves? Could it just be that they can’t stop the neocons ?
Let me reference Dr. John Merashimer, political scientist at the University Of Chicago. About 20 years ago, he criticized Israel for its policies and crimes against Palestine. That was a one-time thing, and for the good of his career, he didn’t say it again. A month ago, he gave a speech, visible on Youtube, and he said there were only two reasons why Washington was conducting the proxy war against Russia. First because the US had “a unipolar moment” in the early 1990’s and second because the government officials thought “they could get away with it.” Well that’s really one reason, just stretched out. Mearshimer was shoveling out BS to hide far bigger motivations and to prevent people from understanding what’s going on.
I count 5 reasons for the proxy war:
1. The West wants, maybe even “needs” the enormous wealth of Russia.
2. Russia is a challenge to Western “rules based” hegemony.
3. The MIC thinks, or used to think, this war would be very profitable.
4. There is a thousand year-old war cultural and religious war against Russia which started with the “filoque” schism. Guy Mettan, stumbled across this and eventually wrote the book “Creating Russophobia”[English version 2019]. Orthodox Christianity is very different from run-of-the-mill modern “Christian religions” and presents a strong challenge to them. I put “Christian religions” in quotes because I learned first-hand that none of the students at a large mainstream (Methodist FWIW) seminary believed in Christ and that maybe one of the professors did. But it’s an easy job with decent pay so why not ?
5. A small quantity of Jews, just the most aggressive and powerful ones, are working on a project to depopulate Ukraine, kill off or drive out the Nazis, and parcel out the unwanted (poor) Western regions to other nations. If you think that’s crazy, give me 1 minute and read 454 words.
There was an anomaly in the run-up to WW1. London could have prevented WW1 with one telegram to Berlin, but no telegram was sent. London refused to say what it would do if Germany declared war. Would Britain fight alongside Germany or alongside France ? If London simply declared they would fight Germany, then Germany would have backed down and refused to start WW1. That was proven in 1910 with the Agadir Crisis, where Germany had to “eat crow pie” and back down. What follows is from “The Guns Of August”, a 1962 super-best-seller by Barbara Tuchman, 26 reprints. London led Berlin down the garden path with the idea that Britain would not fight Germany because the ruling families had a common ancestor . But in fact a small clique within the British government had already decided on war. One simple telegram from London to Berlin, stating their intentions, would have prevented WW1. Historians usually say Britain wanted to head off the rise of Germany as an industrial power, and obviously they were competitors. But, as Tuchman wrote, the British government was warned by Sir Douglas Haig that the war would be extremely costly and long. Specifically, he predicted 4 years and 4 million British casualties – because it would be a war of attrition. Britain would win, Field Marshall Haig said, but British industry would be nearly worn out. Sane people would have found a cheaper way to counter the rise of Germany, and Britain had strong options. But no … The truth didn’t come out until the 1917 Balfour Declaration, a letter to Baron Rothschild which promised Jews could have Palestine. In 1914, no one could have connected the dots and realized that London was catering to Jewish extremists who held a financial grip on the nation. But in the 21st Century, we can connect the dots, lots of dots now. And history is our guide. For a few Jews, it’s always “The price, we think, is worth it.” To be clear, few Jews are aware of any of this and most would be appalled. But a handful of powerful Jews got what they desired with WW1, and now some Jewish extremists are hoping to get away with it a second time. The poster child is Victoria Nuland who has been very focused on the Ukraine and has constantly held high-level posts since the 1980’s under every administration, a remarkable and exceptional achievement. But Pepe Escobar points out that the 80 year-old Edward Luttwak is a long-time gray eminence behind her and other neocons. (Pepe: Youtube “Eurasia NATO failed in Ukraine against Russia”, July 28, 2023) Wikipedia says Luttwak is Ukrainian Jewish. In short: Don’t be afraid to think for yourself.
“If you were Jewish and concerned about where the Israeli Jews will be living in 2050, would you not be attracted to the Ukraine?”
No. Ukraine is Russian land. Only idiots go to war against Russia. I would be attracted to a land where I already have things under my control.
Zelensky explains:
https://odysee.com/@trader.one:d/zelja2014-comic:f
Woodman, I think you should consider the possibility that Russia may be as much under Jewish control as is the USA. That is the opinion of Andrei Raevsky (thesaker.is) a Swiss citizen with Russian heritage and fluent in Russian. Russian history is full of predatory border states and internal groups trying – and sometimes succeeding – in stealing from Russia. From the very beginning, Russian statecraft had to develop to confront these challenges. Even in the 21st Century, Moscow had to deal with limitrophe states like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and there was that 2008 war which Georgia started (and lost in 3 or 5 days). I’ve met a few Jews from the former USSR and none of them have good things to say. A woman from Bukhara complained that her Soviet passport listed her nationality as “Jewish”, not “Russian”. I didn’t know the USSR worked hard to treat its many nationalities with respect and recognition, so I merely nodded, like “Yeah, that’s a bad thing,” – when it wasn’t. Her father taught political science at a prestigious USSR university, and she told me that if it had been known that he was not merely Jewish by ethnicity, but actually a very observant Jew, he might have lost his job. Now, I believe that fear was probably not accurate, but his gullible young daughter believed it. Obviously in such a sensitive job, it matters whether the professor is loyal to the Communist regime – or to the settler regime in Palestine. Of course, Jewish practice since 1492 meant he simply concealed whatever truth he had, but the paranoia lingers too long after. She wore a necklace that said “LIfe” in Hebrew, and I hope that’s most important to her.
Mad Cow gave a verrry interesting link. Zelensky’s skit is hilarious and worth watching.
The shocker is that Zelensky said the big truths out loud, with the audience laughing hard, in full recognition of Ukraine’s mess. So when Zelensky the “peace candidate” turned into just another warmonger, trying to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, what the hell happened ? How come the Ukrainian people never rose up when they were cheated out of peace – once again ? My only guess is that the SBU is very powerful and very much feared. But that’s only a guess. This matters because it could start to inform us how the Kremlin may handle de-nazification of the Ukraine.
I have seen that sketch earlier, and also some others predicting and explaining stuff. I wrote in my earlier post that Kolomoysky was the boss.
I know who Saker is. I am in Eastern Europe, and have first hand knowleded of complicated history of the region. I knew the shit was coming in some form (but couldn’t predict the details).
“So when Zelensky the “peace candidate” turned into just another warmonger, trying to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, what the hell happened?”
In the most corrupt country in Europe, all politicians are corrupt. Zelensky was a scam all along. Kolomoysky wanted his man as president. People had a choice between him and Poroshenko. “Peace candidate” thing was a lie to easily win. Green man was just reading the script from his boss, and still is, but the boss has changed. Fighting Russia till the last Ukrainian was Washington’s plan all along.
“How come the Ukrainian people never rose up when they were cheated out of peace – once again?”
Because Gestapo. Also, because years/decades of USA brainwashing. Younger people grew up with those lies. They really think that they are exceptional, and that they can defeat Russia, just like “Americans” do. You can’t fix stupid.
“This matters because it could start to inform us how the Kremlin may handle de-nazification of the Ukraine.”
Push all Nazis to the west, give it to Poland, build a wall, let them kill each other.
Got the key point in there right at the end.
Will the rational Ukrainians get rid of Zelensky from within. MacGregor talked about it months ago but it never happened.
Lose the puppet the Western “Media” makes out to be some superhero and what then?
Best words written here “ I believe that this means that Zelensky’s days in power are numbered.” What the naive and/or corrupt Zelensky did to his country is unforgivable but do not forget that not too long ago the western world praised him as being the next Churchill.
They have praised the South Vietnamese guy back in the day, and many others. The script doesn’t change, only actors.
Long term.
This war goes on and on. The EU can only survive with stolen Russian resources. That was the initial reason, and now with their spending on this boondoggle it is even more so. Ukraine will turtle up. Western resources will trickle in at a vastly reduced rate, but enough for a defense. The Russians are very casualty adverse. Imagine that? Not wanting to kill your own people. Russia will eke out more and more territory over the years. Eventually up to the Dnieper and Odessa.
Meanwhile.
Come hell or high water, the Western powers will have their war with China. Probably in 2025. We will lose some carriers, Marines get to do their favorite thing – die, Taiwan will be destroyed. But. The Chinese economy that lives off of resources shipped in and third level industrial improvement and transhipment out? Dies. China will enter another of their generational Dark Ages.
South America will be South America. Africa will be Africa. Japan will continue to turn into a hollowed out ghost shell of a country due to demographic doom.
The USA will turn inward, and trade with Mexico and Canada and use South America for slave labor.
Russia will dominate Asia and Europe.
This story actually ends well.
Unless the nukes pop. And if they do? Well. That is when everyone everywhere catches up on their grudges and their old blood feuds. It will not be limited to the participants. That will be the Danse Macabre.
I hope Gonzalo Lira gets out of the Ukraine, out of Bulgaria, out of Europe, out of the EU, and out of NATO. I hope Lira doesn’t even try getting into the United States. If Lira tries getting into the US if fear US Customs and Immigration will behave like Ukrainian Customs and send him back — to the Ukraine.
I hope Gonzalo Lira has found a safe place. Maybe in Russia. These are very dangerous times.
There is just something about how Lira’s fate ends up being decided that decides our fate.
This whole U- proxy war project is connected to this symbolic “Israel”- fantasy, religious “democracy” (= read democracynot regional but global one world government) movement (even practiced and spread historically also by Rastafari) and testing what they now execute as a “Green Agenda”. The Green Agenda could be roughly interpreted as bioweapons testing and private Space settlement program regime…
This whole U- proxy war project is connected to this symbolic “Israel”- fantasy, religious “democracy” (= read democracy is not regional but global one world government) movement (practiced and spread historically also by Rastafari) and testing what they now execute as a “Green Agenda”. The Green Agenda could be roughly interpreted as bioweapons testing and private Space settlement program regime…
The problem with guys like Macgregor and Vlahos is that they criticize the management of the empire. They would like to see the empire run more honestly, efficiently, and humanely. It can’t be done. This is madness. They want empire NOT to be empire, but something else. Empire is inherently corrupt and exploitative.
Strongly agree. The thought occurred to me as well – sometimes MacGregor seems like a boy-scout who really doesn’t understand the situation in which he is embedded. These two like to talk shop and review military history – but that’s what (subordinate) PhDs do. MacGregor was a good soldier in Iraq – which was “only” a “bullshit” war that cost trillions of dollars. (I guess) This time is different in that now we are (i) risking WW3 (ii) destroying Europe economically (iii) destroying ourselves economically and our vaunted world stature. He is clearly very alarmed – it’s a much much bigger miscalculation than Vietnam or Libya. The situation at home is also quickly worsening.
This blunder signals the end of the American unipolar era so the Hegemonic Neocon/libs have lost. On the other hand, the MIC and everyone else who benefits from this war is still quite happy as tremendous profits continue to roll in. From their perspective, it just doesn’t matter who wins or loses, who is competent or incompetent. It only matters that the fighting continues.
Do you have a doctorate? In case not, don’t BS about a doctorate and insult MacGregor being a boy-scout. He is an incredible man.
Yea, a man with incredible amount of blood on his hands. He deserves to get up his ass some of that DU ammo that he loves to dump on others. On the other hand, people that worship war criminals are even worse.
So you insult now in public also me. Do you have a name, Mr Nickname?
You are insulting all the victims by glorifying a war criminal. What did you expect as a response? A medal? A tap on the back? Maybe a cluster bomb in your backyard, so that klds can play with something, in order to take their mind of birth defect caused by depleted uranium, courtesy of an incredible man.
You should ask for my location too, so that you can order a drone strike on my neighborhood, because I’ve hurt you feelings by telling the uncomfortable truth in public. Preposterous thing indeed.
We need nuance here. Macgregor is 100% spot-on in everything he has said except for the DU munitions he and his soldiers used in Iraq. That matters a lot, but you need to understand that Macgregor is probably angling for a role in a future Republican government. That’s the only reason he would pretend DU isn’t really nasty carcinogenic stuff that lasts 250,000 years. His own troops were given thorough instructions on how to handle DU exactly because it’s so awful. So Macgregor can’t feign ignorance. But calling him “a good boy scout” is an unfair accusation. I’ve listened to many hours of him in the last year, and he constantly says the US needs to disengage from the proxy war. Sometimes he talks about “building the US back up” but he is explicit that fighting China would be a disaster under any circumstance. So I don’t know what the purpose of a rebuilt US military would be. I believe this is a case of Macgregor being incremental, asking Americans to “do the right thing” in the short to medium term, and perhaps avoiding the long-term issues because he knows Americans can think that far ahead. So Macgregor is trying to maneuver through a series of minefields: the utter ignorance of most Americans, the narcissism of American culture, the danger that American nationalism could become a very bad thing (instead of a source of national renaissance as Larry Johnson and I hope – and even Putin hopes for), the unpredictability of the future, and, God help us all, the hordes of couch warriors ready to pass superficial judgement based on their ignorance and narcissism.
My bottom line is that Macgregor is A-OK until his denial of the deadlines of DU begins to outweigh all the good he is doing. If we are fortunate enough to get there, maybe he will change his tune and promote US reparations to the people of Iraq. We are a long ways from that, so I don’t judge. I’m aware of his denial and I hope his maneuvers will succeed.
War is the most fundamental of human behaviors. Soldiers, especially in the modern era, have little to say about where they fight. The US has fought “good” wars and “bad” wars. Nations lead their people into wars and people follow. That does not make them good or bad. Some, perhaps like you, believe that all soldiers have blood on their hands. Perhaps thats even true, but so what ?
Jesus gave some the highest praise to a Roman Centurian – “I have not seen faith like this in all of Israel”. He told soldiers (when asked how they should behave) to be content with their wages and not abuse the weak.
I regret just about all of Americas recent wars (the wars in my life time). Some I supported in ignorance and love of war, others I understood to be foolish and shameful, but if the soldiers who fought in them behaved with honor and humanity where it was within their power, then I’m proud of them.
@Dan Farrand
I was a soldier. Not all soldiers are war criminals. This guy is.
“,,, but so what?”
Nothing. You can praise whoever you want, but don’t expect others to approve that.
“… but if the soldiers who fought in them behaved with honor and humanity where it was within their power, then I’m proud of them.”
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts. They aren’t.
The people who forced the Ukrainian soldiers into the offenses knowing they could not win, should be convicted of war crimes (Lindsay Graham, Cocainelenski) and their partners in crime. The total lack of empathy and morals can not be measured. Nothing but psychopaths and narcissists are running this world. I don’t know how we can turn the world around now we are so infected. All so Joe can get re-elected.
I think you Mr Nickname have lost it. The way you behave, shows the level what kind of person you are. I dont waste my time on people playing tough and attacking strangers on the internet. You sound like an uncertain, unstable person. Macgregor is a considerate, responsible man. Do you think it has been easy for him to take all that responsibility? Do you think getting a PhD is easy? The way Macgregor thinks about war is very wise.
I think, you would need to grow as a person before I would accept you. Right now you are just aggressive.
“..Third and finally, those who initiated the war” Russian invasion. Who initiated the war? Say again?
Russian invasion started in 2022. War started in 2014. Washington initiated the war. Any more questions?