Since NATO supplied air defense systems are failing to stop Russia’s relentless missile attack on Ukraine’s electrical and power grid, may be it is time for Volodymyr Zelensky to bring in Tom Bodett. Most U.S. residents know Tom Bodett because of his tag line in a Motel 6 commercial — i.e., “We’ll leave the light on for you.”
Bodett’s promise to keep a light on stands in stark contrast to the reality facing Kiev and Lviv and other major cities across Ukraine. Ukraine, even with NATO support, is struggling to keep the lights and heat on. It is a grim situation and will only get worse in the coming days as temperatures continue to plummet and Ukriane’s power generating system degenerates. Gonzalo Lira provides a report from the front lines on this reality.
Gonzalo sent me some additional comments that are salient:
So an electrical outage might be two hours or forever—you cannot find out while you’re waiting. This uncertainty is what I think will drive a HUGE number of people to lose their nerve and flee to the West. Which is why I think a second migration wave this winter is definitely coming to Europe, from Ukraine. And since this wave will not be by rail—obviously, because no electricity means no rail system—then it’s going to be by car. Which will be chaotic, disorganized, completely clogging up the roads as whatever vehicle is available will be used by civilians to get out. And of course, many of these vehicles will run out of gas in this parking lot, creating even more havoc.
There’s another factor: Heating cars. Most people keep their cars in heated garages during the winter. Car batteries die very quickly when it’s 15 below 0. If there’s no electricity, there’ll be no heat—so cars might not run, once winter fully sets in. That might factor into people’s decisions whether to leave or stay, or whether they CAN leave or stay. If your car battery is dead and there’s no electricity to charge it, your car becomes a tchotchke.
Bottom line, it’s going to get supremely ugly, if the power is permanently cut in Ukraine. Because it is not possible to survive in this winter climate without heat and water, and the entire infrastructure to deliver both is dependent on electricity, with no substitutes or practical large-scale workarounds.
The war in Ukraine has exposed the fact that United States and NATO do not have a viable anti-missile defense system that can shoot down Russian hyper sonic missiles. Russia enjoys a clear technological edge over the West, not just with viable hyper sonic missiles but with an integrated air defense system that is designed to shoot down hyper sonics that the West does not yet have in its inventory of weapons systems.
I had planned to write more on this but Andrei Martyanov beat me to the punch with his piece, Hypersonic Ad Nauseam On Thanksgiving. He writes:
I encourage you to read the entire piece. One of the other major consequences of Russia’s campaign to turn off the electrical power in Ukraine is the psychological damage inflicted on the population. Gonzalo mentions this in his video above. The modern generation, whether in Ukraine or the United States, is accustomed to having information in real time and readily available. Very few in modern industrial nations know what it is like to be cut off from news about world events. That knowledge or information plays a key role in shaping public attitudes. I lived in rural Honduras in 1978. We only had electricity, thanks to a generator, two hours a night. If I was lucky I was able to pick up a BBC broadcast and get some idea of what is going on in the world.
What we will see in the coming weeks from Ukrainians who remain in darkened, electricity starved cities are people cut off from their political leadership and filled with a genuine feeling of being abandoned. This is not an imaginary condition. People will be compelled by the cold, the lack of heat and dead batteries to come up with some sort of survival strategy. This will erode dramatically Ukraine’s ability to maintain a viable army in the field. Soldiers who, until now, have been able to phone home and chat with loved ones will no longer have that lifeline to the outside world.
Have you ever been in a situation where you were separated from a loved one and could not communicate with them for more than 24 hours, especially when you do not know if they are alive or dead? During World War I, soldiers in the trenches in France had no expectation of any immediate communication. They depended on letters from home for news and those communications were delayed by days and even weeks. But we live in a different era and there is now an expectation of immediacy. Once expectations are set at a high level and a gap emerges where reality falls far short of the expectations, that is a recipe for unrest and even revolt.
Can you imagine the withdrawal the 20 and 30 year olds in Ukraine will experience when their phones and computers are dead and they can no longer text or call a friend? I am not sure the intelligence communities of various nations have even taken time to cogitate on the implications of such a development. The most likely outcome is that people will vote with their feet and go to where they can charge their phones and make a call. This means mass emigration into neighboring countries with viable power girds.
What do you think?
“The war in Ukraine has exposed the fact that United States and NATO do not have a viable anti-missile defence system that can shoot down Russian hyper sonic missiles.”
The can’t even shoot down slow moving Missiles and Drones let alone Hypersonics. I remember the laughable Saudi’s use of them and lets not forget the great job they did stopping Iran’s bombardment of the Al Asaad Base. 🙄
The Saudi’s definitely had their issues with air defense. As for Al Asaad most people don’t realize all our patriot batteries are defending Kuwait, Qatar and UAE. There was no missile defense covering that base, so it was a very easy target.
The Saudis depended on US manned Patriot defences, which were and are useless. US air defence is a joke, no matter what way you pretend otherwise.
The USA decided it was more profitable to make expensive aircraft than affordable anti air missiles. That’s what happens when your defence needs are seconded to commercial profit. The Russians have been perfecting missiles and air defence the whole time Boeing and Lockheed and their political wing have been looting the US taxpayers.
All major wars turn on technological innovation. But the innovation has to be practicable. The US innovated in WWII — but a lot of that was borrowed — from the British, the Germans, and others. Radar, the P51 mustang, jet engines and so on all came from the British, After the war, much of American military progress depended on German scientists. The problem comes when military products are treated as consumer products, where “added value” is prioritized to increase profits rather than efficacy. Russia with a smaller budget emphasizes practicality and weapons manufacturers work for the State rather than the other way around. So Russia is fighting the next war in Ukraine. The US is still fighting WWII. And losing
\https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/santas-gift-to-putin-victory?
BUT….they DO have a viable anti-Russia system that can shoot nonsense at the masses faster than a speeding bullet.
Rarely do I tune into Newsweek, ever since I discovered that it’s the PR arm for the Atlantic Council which itself is the PR arm for NATO. Just happened to tune in just now, for kicks and boy, were they not a letdown. Not one, no two, but a host of ‘revelations’ all jam packed onto the first webpage: Have a laugh yourself. I know I did.
Putin Branded a Narcissist in Leaked FSB Letters
Russia Firing Old and Empty Missiles as Putin Runs out of Weapons: U.K.
Putin Too ‘Scared’ To Order Nuclear Strike, Leaked FSB Letters Reveal (Thank God. I guess by inference, we’re not?)
Russia Planned To Attack Japan in 2021: Leaked FSB Letters (that one’s a doozy)
Apparently, the FSB leaks originate with: The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France. The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin.
And Osechkin of course, sits under an apple tree along with George Washington and that Syrian fellow sitting in his UK apartment/office getting all those battlefield reports straight from disaffected Syrian Army commanders (or were they Daesh or MI6 posers, I forget) five or so years back.
Of course! Never doubted any of it for even a second.
That is the threat that hangs over the EU and that will destroy an EU that is already in so much economic difficulty. I think most commentators still don’t realize that Russia doesn’t need any offensive but just to let time pass – which has been part of Moscow’s strategy for a long time and many don’t understand either – to completely fuck up NATO and the EU!
I generally agree with everything Larry writes on this blog, from who provoked this war to try regime change in Moscow – with another Yeltsin to disconnect the EU and China from Russia’s natural resources and take the European economy hostage – to who is winning this conflict since February 24th. Contrary to all the lies in western MSM. I just don’t agree that this conflict is going to be resolved on the ground! The US and NATO cannot stand another humiliating defeat after Afghanistan. Despite the intention to create another Afghanistan for Russia on the plains of Ukraine. Which says a lot about the stupidity in Washington. And negotiations have been going on for a long time! For me, even the abandonment of the bridgehead on the Westbank of the Dnieper was negotiated in order to bring Zelensky to the negotiating table. And it was enough to see the staged meeting between Surovikin and Shoigu. No army announces a withdrawal at the risk of taking half the troops. And Ukraine didn’t even move!
I think the biggest problem in Kiev today is divisions. Namely the most fanatical wing that will never agree to negotiations. Which was once the wing that tried to false flag Poland in collusion with Poland itself and the Baltics. But I remain hopeful of a ceasefire before Christmas.
You underestimate Nato’s ability to lie and proclaim victory when there is clearly no victory to proclaim. US/Nato already declared Russia’s move as a failure in week 2! They will always lie and state that they are the winners, like they have done for months now. Nato doesn’t know shame, they don’t bother with anything as they rely heavy on their hybrid war tactics spreading pure propaganda to achieve their internet/news and MSM victories. They conditioned their population to believe everything they say for years and it works for most of their “sheep”.
Don’t count on Nato to engage in negotiations. They will do this only if they themselves see an existential threat. So far they don’t even care if their industries get killed and their people get pushed into poverty for higher living costs. Those psychopaths will never stop to harass others until someone makes sure they are eradicated. And that is mostly where this conflict is heading now. So many points of return have been dismissed by the west and Nato. Their choice is obvious. They fear a direct conflict but still escalate if they see the opportunity.
The only solution is to wait and see. I’ve also actually seen them use exactly the same argument I use for negotiations, NATO can’t tolerate another defeat, to go ahead with the war?! But which war after the annihilation of Ukraine? A nuclear war? So the only solution is to wait and see. Germany has already announced power cuts starting in January. It’s good to be aware of what this represents for the general population throughout the EU. Where nobody talks about Poland either, which economically is not much better than Ukraine. Let’s hope so.
“…When you tell a lie, tell big lies… In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility… In the primitive simplicity of [the mind of the masses] they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying. – Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1926, p. 472
This quote, and many others of AH, are lifted with no context as to who the ‘expert liars’ he was describing were (1926- while in prison). The entire book also has some descriptions of the debates he attempted with the jews. The liars concede, and return the next day spouting the same lies. Weird how our government and mass media do exactly that.
And one last prognosis, also much heard about the conflict, with which I also do not agree. Even quoted today by Larry in a very courageous interview with George Galloway that I recommend to everyone. Which has to do with Russia’s appetite for Nicoleav and Odessa. And the same for Kharkov, territory that in my opinion was only important for Russia because of the Izium front that didn’t work. No army gets it right every time! But some hit more than others and in terms of operational art we have never seen anything like the Russian operational art on earth since WWII. The US, on the other hand, usually supports its entire maneuver on its powerful hardware. Even in countries on any hardware. Namely in its powerful air force with less land maneuvers. And I’m not at all convinced that Russia never closed Donbass because it couldn’t.
In the same way that Russia resolves this conflict with just a few missiles a week, without the need for any major ground offensive that the greatest damage it will do to Ukrainian forces is to imagine where this major offensive will come from? Typical of Russian operational art dna. I remember a book by a Nazi officer on the Eastern Front who reported on the number of colleagues who ended up in a madhouse with their nerves broken because they could never predict where the Russians would appear.
For several reasons, and I won’t mention all of them, Russia has never shown any interest in crossing the Dniepre to the old buffer zone. Let alone any attempts to take Nicolaev and Odessa. And yes, they are Russian cities but bombing countless military targets in the two cities has nothing to do with taking these cities! Objective that I say again no one has ever noticed in this conflict! In my opinion the Kherson beachhead was never more than a diversionary maneuver to extend, trap and destroy Ukrainian forces while Russia operated in Donbass.
Again typical of Russian operational art. And it worked really well. Because in addition to the biggest headache for the Ukrainian forces due to the doubts since February due to the possibilities that it opened up to russians forces, it allowed the destruction of thousands of Ukrainians in Kherson from the summer onwards. It’s almost like the complaints that Russia should have cut off supplies, the railroad and bridges all along. Which would never make the Ukrainian troops disappear. And its demilitarization has always been one of the major objectives of this conflict! This conflict was never a turf conflict!
But the appetite for Nicoalev and Odessa completely changed the nature of this conflict to a conflict of aggression over territory that perhaps not even Russia’s closest allies, such as China and India – so important – would approve in 21st Century. Russia did not enter Ukraine because yes! Russia entered Ukraine after recognizing the Republics of Donbass and activating art. 51 of the UN! Which has nothing to do with Odessa and Nicolaev. And only Russia’s well-known legalistic character should put that objective out of the minds of most analysts. Until today, every meter of territory that Ukraine has lost is only due to the actions of Ukraine itself. As is the case of the well-known Donbass, Kherson with the cut off of water to Crimea and Zaporizhzhia due to ZNPP!
Putin himself when questioned in Valdai about Odessa said that it could be the city where you could even sign peace or not! In my opinion the only way I see Ukraine losing Odessa and even access to the sea is if it continues to attack from Odessa or Nicoalev the safety of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Founded there more than 3 Centuries ago! Just as they lost Crimea in 2014 when they set out to cancel the lease on the Sevastopol naval base and, above all, the autonomy of Crimea. In what was clearly NATO’s first major provocation. When I was already training neo-Nazi troops against the Russian population of Donbass! In a country that was never part of NATO. But Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022…
In this regard and according to Reuters, Germany also just responded to the call for aid to Ukraine: “Patriot air defense systems only for NATO member states”. Here is a part of the German Government full of desire to continue fueling the conflict.
There’s no way to negotiate, remember what Poroshenko said about the Minsk agreements? They were buying time to arm to the teeth and build fortifications. The only way is by a total surrender of the ukie army. That’s how you deal with war criminals. Negotiating table? That’s for naive people.
Here:
https://www.rt.com/russia/557307-poroshenko-comments-minsk-agreement/
A ceasefire before Christmas would see Nato through the period of frozen ground and leave it free to escalate again next year. On balance I don’t think that’s in either Russias interest nor in the interest of the Ukrainians inclined to peace.
As we all know, Russia was prepared in December 2021 to accept only Donbass autonomy and Ukraine’s neutrality. And then in March at the negotiations in Istanbul. In other words, the greetings of the Minsk agreements! If Russia has been looking for something over these 10 months in Ukraine, it’s negotiations! What has happened in the meantime is that the side that defends Russia’s justice in this conflict in response to NATO’s provocations has also started to get excited and believe that Russia wants a volcanic crater on its border. But don’t intend to. Never intended! Or at the very least reissue Novorossiya without any evidence of it except perhaps a few warriors’ telegram accounts.
It doesn’t intend to. Russia remains unwilling to destroy civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. The punctual missiles against the electricity grid after 10 months have no parallel with what the US usually does in the first week of its energy wars! They are still just a more intense way of putting pressure on Ukraine to the negotiating table! But as I said, we’ll see. With the certainty that the outcome of any conflict is very rarely just about one contender. How pressured it can be to go further than it ever wanted! And no, I am not necessarily thinking only of Russia. And here we are all at risk. And not just one of the most corrupt laundries in the world!
As much as the EU itself continues to climb in rhetoric with the terrorist state and now with the return of the holodomor fake – it starts to lack imagination – Russia also intends to return to having relations with all European countries. The main objective of this conflict for Russia is to review the European security architecture. Which is also manifested in Ukraine through the enlargement of NATO! To which the change of borders in Europe has also contributed nothing. The Crimean case is a completely different case. Crimea has never ceased to be autonomous.
I’m sorry but in case it wasn’t clear enough, NATO’s withdrawal from Ukraine embodied in the Constitution of Ukraine automatically fulfills all of Russia’s initial objectives. Much more than any new territory. Donbass and the consolidation of Crimea are assured and Ukraine itself has already been demilitarized! And the great denazification has also already happened in Mariupol. Russia has already released some small breed and not even in 45 years after the battle of Berlin did it go after all the Nazis one by one!
As you can see, we are not as far from the end of the conflict as that! Zelensky or some General will end up signing the peace accords! Ukraine cannot survive the winter without electricity! Not the EU. Hence Russia is also not destroying the electricity grid at all but just making it inoperable. Only NATO can resolve a conflict it has started. As for the EU, governments also change. In ideas or in fact with the worsening of the economic crisis.
” The most likely outcome is that people will vote with their feet and go to where they can charge their phones and make a call. This means mass emigration into neighboring countries with viable power girds.”
Exactly.
A third of the country has left – 7m before 2021 and 7m since. Those that came back in the summer I guess have left again if they can.
Most of those remaining will be 65+ and unable to work, or the wounded from the army, ditto.
Any rational west would have been telling ukraine to pack it in before this year, and certainly by end March. Asking them to carry on since April has been quite simply an evil act by the west. Equivalent to the food and medicines sanctions on Iraq in the 1990s that killed half a million children.
Awful. and no doubt they’ll want to blame Russia.
yes – and have you ever seen the field upon field of the dead Ukrainian soldiers – its a must-see – you don’t get a conception of it until you see it – it covers hundreds of miles – grave upon grave – its going to be blamed on Russia – unless the good guys fighting this global war – win.
Exactly! The greatest military defeat that can be inflicted on any country is the loss of its active civilian population.
Will this be what finally triggers a coup against the cocaine cowboy?
I’d be willing to wager that if so motivated the Russians could and would probably be happy to provide the necessary repairs to begin restoration.
As someone who grew-up on a homestead in rural Canada in the the 60s and 70s with the experience of no electricity, no phone, only a battery operated AM radio for news, and only wood to heat and cook with I’ve often made the comment to younger friends that they are going to suffer a serious disconnect and breakdown when hard times make their appearance.
I suspect that you are right on the money with this one; no one seems to be calculating this effect in their analysis of how the coming months and weeks will break in Ukraine.
We are going to see an incredible first view of how this will play out in the psyches of the modern world.
People who live in northern climates in rural communities might be able to cope; but the pyschosis of the urban citizen – individually and collectively will be tested. The real problems will show up in January and February; when people are crowded together in adverse circumstances; negativity can spread like wildfire. It wouldn’t be surprising if Ukraine becomes massively depopulated.
There is a plus side, perhaps the Woke will awaken ….. or not!
As a young lad I was lucky enough to see the transition from coal stoves and kerosene lamps on the rural prairies. Then the propane tanks arrived to replace coal. Communication was listening in on the phone to the neighbors gossip on the shared lines. Everyone had huge gardens and root cellars to store it. The women of these times were tougher than any man living in the modern western world today. I did take something from the experience and still have a wood burning stove for insurance just in case. Hope for the best, plan for the worst was the idea I took from those times. Obviously western leaders never got that memo.
The war in Ukraine has exposed the fact that United States and NATO do not have a viable anti-missile defense system that can shoot down Russian hyper sonic missiles.
Apparently, they can’t even reliably shoot down mere supersonic Kalibrs. Am I wrong?
They can’t reliably shoot down Houthi drones.
I’ll bet they’re better at hitting Polish fertilizer silos though.
How close did that shot come to WWIII anyway? Anybody know the distance?
If it’d hit that fertilizer silo, it definitely would have been the shit heard round the world.
I don’t think that there was a fertiziler silo in the area, only a grain one. Even if there was a fertilizer one, and it got hit, it would not cause nukes to fly. USA would not risk it’s safety even if all Poles died. The goal of proxy wars is for others to die, while USA watches from a safe distance.
I think we all share an expectation that our government, wherever and whatever that government is, will provide basic services. If the power goes out and stays out in Ukraine, there will be a flood of people leaving for Europe. I think that is true and may already be happening even if how they plan to get there is another matter. But, will they be the majority? And for the rest, if they lose confidence in their government, how long before they turn on the government in Kiev? Or turn on whatever outposts of that central government exists in the various other cities and smaller towns? This turning could well include many of the remaining soldiers in the Ukrainian Army. If this happens, then this war could turn ugly in an entirely new direction.
Alexander Mercouris has repeatedly made the point that we are on the verge of seeing a mass exodus from western Ukraine, one that will stagger Europe and perhaps finally destroy the European Union (a very good thing, IMHO). President Putin may not only demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, he may actually empty it of people who have learned to hate Russia and Russians! Not in his wildest dreams could he have envisioned this outcome nine months ago, but he had no way of guessing how stupid and stubborn Western “leaders” would prove to be. So Moscow gets a ‘two-fer’, a denazified and sparsely populated buffer zone between Russia’s border, and a European Union brought completely to its knees, incapable of much of anything any longer.
“… European Union brought completely to its knees”.
And this will be a win for Russia and Europe. The EU, a fake construct, needs to dissolve and then there will be independent European countries that will want to do business with Russia once again.
Make that “… on Russia’s border…”
» Can you imagine the withdrawal the 20 and 30 year olds in Ukraine will experience when their phones and computers are dead and they can no longer text «
–Or their star-link terminal?
–Telephone nets used to run on its own DC power supply … it will be much harder keeping all those cell towers up and running.
–Then there’s cars. Most people don’t have them.
–And real winter temperatures require (electric) block heaters in your engine, for those south of the Cdn border.
Re: block heaters. I have found from time on the rez that a horse blanket draped over the engine block serves perfectly well for eight hours or more.
Missiles (which have been defined as guided, whereas rockets have traditionally been defined as non- guided) have been the primary tool of destructive warfare since the Kamikaze. Every advancement since then is an extension of that concept. Aircraft launching air-to-ground missiles also falls within that concept. The aircraft just provide extended range. Faster, more accuracy, more lethality, and longer range are key objective attributes in missile development. How anyone could not see the warfare value in hypersonic missiles is beyond my reasoning capability. But then again, I’ve seen dumber shit.
The cause boils down to a common theme in US disintegration: there are zero repurcussions for bad behavior.
“How anyone could not see the warfare value in hypersonic missiles is beyond my reasoning capability.”
The technology was first developed in the 1950’s, so it is a question that has been around for a long time, and been answered I suspect trillions of times and a million different ways – when you factor in the supercomputers.
What is interesting to me; right now, sitting off Russia’s coast, are as many 1,500 American missiles, called Tridents, that reach speeds of Mach 18 two minutes after launch and Mach 24 in their terminal phase, so its not like the Americans don’t have hypersonic capabilities in this theater of war.
Granted, the Tridents are unlikely to be carrying conventional payloads, and that’s the thing I guess. The United States never had any interest in fighting a conventional war against a peer. And neither did the Soviet Union, for that matter. In a real peer to peer war, of the nuclear variety, hypersonics would be nothing more than expensive, counter-strike weapons with the ability to fly superfluous dipsy doodles as they perform their Overkill mission.
Hence, the likely reason we haven’t seem em on this 70 year old playing field up until recently.
Note: People really should look into the concept of boost phase intercept. It is the reason this war is being fought, by the way. As Putin made clear time and again in his international press conferences over the years, the true value of the hypersonics would be in an ICBM boost phase interceptor role, and the Russian Federation would never allow for the United States to have that capability, which Ukraine would’ve given them.
But what about the shelling in the Donbas Max424!? Lmao …
” … sitting off Russia’s coast, are as many 1,500 American missiles … ”
This is incorrect. Apologies.
Sitting off Russia’s coast are as many as 168 Trident missiles, which reach speeds of Mach 18 two minutes after launch.
When MIRVed to near maximum, it is the 1,500 or so released warheads of the Tridents that would descend at speeds of up to Mach 24.
I could wrong however. There could be a lot more than 1,500 American nuclear warheads off Russia’s coast. One of the reasons I’ve been asking since Day 1 of this SMO; where are the American boomers, and how many are out to sea?
Unfortunately, no one seems to have any interest in the true available firepower of two main combatants (that being the US and Rusia of course) in this theater of war, which perhaps I need to remind everyone, actually spans our entire life giving planet?
For whatever reason, everyone wants to focus is on the details of the popguns and the firecrackers, like HIMARS and the Tos 1 thermobaric flamethrowers, or the two (?) hypersonics that have been used so far, which is fine, they have their place I guess, but still, one wishes that we would get serious as a species at some point.
In the nuclear age, conventional war is the equivalent of hunter-gather tribes going at it with rocks, clubs, fists and teeth. Deadly? Yes, on occasion, but only for the unfortunate few.
Russian hypersonic missiles are maneuverable. The ballistic trajectory of traditional missiles makes them subject to interception. Maneuverable hypersonic missiles, as Russia has and the US does NOT, are not subject to interception by the west, though Russia argues it already has hypersonic maneuverable interception capability with the S-550.
NATO is attempting to achieve its goals by non-nuclear objectives, using its trillion-dollar military hardware and economic warfare tools. Unsuccessfully, so far.
What is the point of discussing a nuclear confrontation? Just pour a nice glass of single malt, light a Cuban, and enjoy. Anything else is a waste of words that the EMP will erase, anyway.
“What is the point of discussing a nuclear confrontation?”
To avoid one?
I find it troubling that everywhere I go these days I’m running into the same argument, the Russian Federation can win a nuclear war. And make no mistake, if the Russians can intercept thousands of incoming warheads all doing speeds in excess of Mach 20 and set to detonate at various altitudes from the surface to 70 miles up, all in a 5 minute span, then yes, the Russians can win.
And that is the claim being made ad naseum, by Russian government officials, Russian bloggers, vloggers, pundits, and Russian warnerds everywhere, they can do it!
Are the Russians threatening to use nukes in Ukraine? F*ck no. They can win that little fracus anytime they want, they only have to get off their privatized, neo-liberal globalists asses and get it done. Make a few enemies out their Western “partners,” “friends,” “associates” and “colleagues,” the same ones that daily threaten them with existential destruction.
Are the Russians threatening to use nukes in general? F*ck yes. If you are openly boasting to all the world that you can win a nuclear war, you are by definition, threatening to use nukes.
That’s how this game works.
I have said it before and I will say it again – the West experienced a TOTAL intelligence failure when it comes to Russia. Putin has been preparing for this since at least 2014 yet we are waking up to find that Russia is years ahead of us not only in tech but also has stockpiles to power a multi-front war for years AND a resilient economy to boot WITH solid multi-lateral ties to multiple countries that are alternatives to the West.
We spend trillions on military hardware, intelligence, diplomatic missions, USAID, NGOS and other intelligence covers and nobody, literally NOBODY saw this (?).
But, then again, Putin is ex-KGB, he obviously runs his country like it’s a KGB directorate.
So, did they not see it? Were they too arrogant to see it?
P.S. In your last article comment section I said Putin is reluctant to launch an all-out offensive and your article is the logic behind my reasoning. Why lose soldiers and incur costs etc.when you can (hopefully) bring Ukr to the negotiating table by doing what you are describing?
I completely agree that if this conflict was anything to go by, it was a total failure of US intelligence. That or the Biden Administration is even more stupid than we’ve ever thought of it. Maybe they thought they won a military conflict with propaganda alone.
I have the opposite conclusion. IMO Western intelligence was reporting that the gap was widening in Russia’s favor, and will continue to widen.
It is simply Thucydides’ Trap.
In military terms I think it’s too suicidal. I think the US thought they could topple Putin with some internal coup. We talk a lot about military investment, but investment in propaganda was no less. And I hate treating Russia like I’m just your president. Like the Western propaganda campaign that couldn’t be more primitive. It is much easier to hate a man than a nation with so many centuries of history. But at least here in Europe it couldn’t have worked better. We’ll see when the difficulties increase.
I took a semester in Kiev in late 90s. Russia cut off gas and we had no electricity for about 2-3 weeks in November. It was not fun: no showers, no cooking, studied during the day only, slept in sweaters, jackets, hats and gloves, woke up in the morning with frozen face, etc. I remember being cold and tired of eating packaged dried meals. On the bright side, all students in the dorm bonded together, became good friends, we played games, talked, had long discussions, had even parties. Locals did not blame Russia, instead corrupt Ukrainian officials for stealing gas that Russia was selling to Europe through Ukraine.
Larry,
I have long felt that part of the problem for the US is that If one has a multitude of independent defense contractors and sub-contractors, all competing for ex-DOD board members, then you are going to get highly atomized systems. Not the type of integrated systems that Russia has shown to be extremely effective. Absent a massive defeat and nationalization of the MICC, all we are going to get is a new wonder-weapon missile which may (MAY) work on the proving grounds, but probably not.
The fact that the US was unwilling to use the THAAD to intercept the North Korean missile test suggests the Pentagon is highly suspicious. Meanwhile, using a far less sophisticated Russian integrated system, Syria stopped ALL the tomahawks that had targeted covered sites. But will the pentagon admit it to the (neocon) politicians?
WRT your other question, the Ukrainian population will vote with their feet, bringing along the stingers NATO gave them. And when neo-nazis begin targeting civilian aircraft, hopefully NATO leaders will reap their just fruits.
I think Gonzalo Lira is a COINTELPRO piece of shit. Last year he was picked up by SBU and held for an indefinite period of time. So long that other vloggers were saying he had been murdered. Then, he suddenly pops up, in perfect health, with a bullshit story. And they let him continue his anti Ukraine rants, while in Ukraine and they know where he is at all times. Riddle me that,
I wouldn’t say better. Strategies of a youtuber.
I’ve heard this too, but what I don’t understand is, what the point of that would be.
Maybe to value a former marriage counselor in a whole new area.
Same as The Epoch Times…
Old and reliable propaganda sources are being compromised due to the needs of the current narrative and its failure. Now is the time to introduce new sources and establish their credibility with the public.
Maybe it’s just self promotion and nothing more. Youtubers often struggle for views and subscriptions to earn enough to survive. Sometimes women do it by showing a little unnecessary cleavage. Sometimes it’s an over the top personality or dangerous stunts. Given people are talking about it would, I imagine, provide a boost to his viewership.
None of his videos appear to me to be disinformation and that should be the main concern. Maybe there was no SBU; just the need to earn a living. The list of possibilities is long.
This may explain why the expected Russian offensive has yet to occur. Best to wait for ten million Ukrainians to flee to Poland so the Russians don’t have to care for them.
CM said: “… so the Russians don’t have to care for them.”
I think this is one of the important truth-bits about the situation in Ukr.
IMHO Rus first came all the way to gates of Kiev expecting total chaos and Ukr willingness to surrender, or at least a Russia-leaning residents uprising or what not.
When Rus realized the extent of nazism to which the common Ukies were conditioned, they changed their tactics.
And when the new weapons appeared, usually operated by NATO “contractors,” Rus changed again — see the old tactics of feint withdrawal ~ remember the WWII Faïd Pass?
While right now, the Russians display much less care for their Ukie “brothers,” who would always despise them, and, as said above, Russians will avoid taking responsibility for any residual / rump state known lately as 404 (formerly Ukraine) — just making sure that any military equipment, training and nazi organizations will be totally absent.
And “sarc-on” as the Cato the Elder always concluded: “I still think the blitzkrieg from W. Belarus all the way to Transnistria to meet the Black Sea borne marines at the suburbs of Odessa must and will happen!” “sarc-off”
Cheers, JaKo
Thank you very much for another excellent article.
My question is: Why can’t people in the West, with all their fanciful universities, produce people equipped with the agency to think and ask questions of their leaders?
We are told that the West is the most educated, the most literate, the most democratic – they even refer to themselves as the ‘Free World,’ yet we see a people who watch as their elected officials led them into perfidy without raising their voices.
Why are questions not being asked what happened to the billions of dollars spent on so-called intelligence agencies which, apparently, failed so spectacularly in Russia? They have been failing all over, anyway.
Why can’t Americans ask what happened to the trillions of dollars their governments have expended in building “the strongest army” which can win only Grenada-size victories?
Education, literacy and democracy have nothing to do with US foreign policy.
It’s a racket that has made many people rich in this country with defense and construction contracts, bribes and kickbacks. That and 24/7 pro-war propaganda left over from WW2, the Cold War and 9-11 to brainwash young men and women into joining up.
This situation won’t change until the costs of empire outweigh the benefits. Which is about to happen since we have decided to take on the historical destroyer of Western empire-building fantasies, Russia.
Tsk, Tsk, now American military power is more resilient than what you ascribe—ridding the planet of caudillos whose “used by date” has expired, like in Panama with the shite-canning of Manuel Noriega, as well as in Iraq, where the lynching of the cretinous Saddam Hussein proved to the world that democracy always prevails, thanks to the U.S. of A.
What I don’t get is that I’m dressed 4× more warmly, it’s less cold here than there, and I have gas&light.
How is he in a T-Shirt?
a generation ago rural people and people close to cities used wood and coal for heat and cooking. they had a community well they could use that did not need power. they also had an outhouse. that is gone know. i use the modern convieniences but am still set up go go back a generation if need be at a moments notice.
they do not care anymore about the optics. they think they are so far above the law that they need oxygen to be able to breathe. time to prove them wrong
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/howls-outrage-after-new-york-times-confirms-sbf-speak-alongside-zelenskyy-yellen-dealbook
China vs USA – Who is the Real Superpower? 世界需要赶上中国的脚步了！🇨🇳 Unseen China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffuU_43GoqI
regards,
ralph
If recent history is to be believed, you can expect not only a mass migration of Ukies into Europe but a mass migration of DEMANDING Ukies who consider the West as owing them a privileged living. In the UK and Europe, there are horror stories of Ukie refugees being hosted in private homes only to end up causing immense domestic problems for the hosts due to their demands and calculated intimidation. This will be magnified with such a migration and will be just one more piece of kindling for the fires of social unrest against the political class.
I am surprised that nobody seems to be talking about the issue of denazification and how Russia is to accomplish it. In WWII, when electricity and radio was far less available, a common way to get the message across was leafletting. One would think that Russia would prepare 100,000+ leaflets to drop along with their airstrikes on the electrical grid and other normal facilities, saying something to the effect of “your leaders told you to hate and kill Russians. Where has that hatred gotten you? Your country is destroyed. That’s because hatred kills the hater. Russia and Russians are not your problem. The Nazi loving faction that got you into this situation, along with Zelensky, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk , who betrayed you. So stop blaming Russia for your problems. You brought this on yourselves because you allowed your leaders to drag you into a war you can’t win”.
Something like that. Certainly people in the Donbass or at military or FSB headquarters can think of something. This is as much an information war as a physical war. And good old fashioned leaflet dropping, especially when all their other info sources are restricted would have a big impact.
They have been dropping leaflests using special red painted shells that are fired from regular artillery. In one of the videos a soldiers says: first we fire these shells at enemy positions, and later regular ones.
Good Idea, leafleting had been used by the American military, during the Desert Shield/Desert Storm war in 1990/1991.
USA used it in Yugoslavia too. It was so poorly made that it was comical.
Let me add some points as an electric engineer. Our electric grid is composed of power plants, power lines and transformers. Bringing down one 110 KV pylon, what you even could do with a truck, will stop several towns for several days. Knowing the grid structure, I would suggest that maximum 25 missiles could stop a whole country.
But the situation then would be catastrophic: You cannot repair a pylon without machines, but these machines need diesel, what you cannot get because the gas station needs electricity. So, you would need pioneers to come with everything: Trucks, generators, and a new pylon. And disasters communication means, because a mobile phone will not work.
Regarding this, I wonder what Russia really hits, what the detailed action looks like.
Destruction of transformers is also a bad means. Transformers are heavy and expensive. The EU may have some in spare, but even simple things like a fundament is a problem.
So, what is the detailed strategy of the Russians to kill the power supply? Killing pylons, killing transformers, killing power plants?
I’ve been wondering if the Russians have a stock of suitable transformers, if so once it’s over recovery could be rapid?
My thought as well. They must have the means to restore service in captured territories or else they would run into logistics problems as they advance.
I guess the latest $400-million dollar Ukrainian arms package includes some generators. Fuel included? Because they’ll need that, too. And besides a diesel shortage, I hear gasoline deliveries have gotten spotty because of the electrical outages. Also, how soon will these generators arrive in the Ukraine? Hopefully, before spring. The world waits and wonders. [sarcasm]
They are hitting transformers. EU may or may not have some in spare, but Russians surely have more than enough to get everything running once the fighting is over. The speed of repair of Kerch bridge suggests that they had spare bridge parts too.
Good point. Very illuminating of the Russian operation today. Power plants in Ukraine are nuclear. That’s why not! And even with regard to the electrical grid, Russia is not trying to totally destroy the electrical grid as even Roland mentions and it would be very easy for Russia but only making it inoperable for a certain period. When Ukraine manages to restore the network, Russia fires another missile. Which says well what Russia is looking for at this stage! Not annihilation but surrender!
The Russians are destroying the transformers.
I live in Phoenix. In 2004, there was a fire at 1 of the 4 substations that service the metro area. A number of transformers were damaged and needed to be replaced. One replacement was found in Washington state. It took about a month to get it to Phoenix and another month to install it and bring it online. The remaining transformers were ordered from a company in Montreal. It took more than a year for those units to be manufactured, transported to Phoenix, and installed.
Russia is destroying a large number of Ukrainian transformers and substations. The Phoenix fire ultimately destroyed 4 transformers and it took more than a year to restore that substation to 100% capacity. The damage being done to the Ukrainian electrical grid is substantial and most likely will not be repaired anytime soon.
From a 2004 news article I saved:
The Valley’s tight electric situation is the result of a transformer fire at a West Valley substation more than a week ago, which knocked 14 transformers out of operation.
Utility crews restored service to three of the damaged transformers at the Westwing substation on Thursday, but more work will be needed to restore the others.
The Westwing substation is one of four major substations that import power into the metro area from outside the Valley.
The transformers “step down” the voltage of electric current brought in by major transmission lines, preparing it for distribution to end users. Without the Westwing transformers, utilities have had to route more electricity through three other Valley substations.
On Saturday, APS acquired a replacement transformer from the Bonneville Power Administration in Washington state. The 400,000-pound transformer was loaded on a special highway hauler at Covington, Wash., and made the 36-mile trip to the port of Tacoma, Wash., at an average speed of about 2 miles per hour, said APS spokesman Alan Bunnell.
The process of loading the transformer on the barge, along with the hauler, began Monday night, and the barge is expected to leave port in about two days. Because the wheeled hauler is being transported with the transformer, the barge ramp will have to be welded shut to hold the massive cargo in position, Bunnell said.
The barge will carry the transformer to a port in California, which is not being disclosed for security reasons. The weld will then be broken and the transformer unloaded for transport via the hauler to the Phoenix Westwing substation at Loop 303 and Happy Valley Road.
The average speed between California and Arizona is expected to be about 10 miles per hour, faster than the Washington leg of the 1,500-mile journey because of better roads, Bunnell said. It is expected to arrive at Westwing during the week of July 25. Installation will require another three weeks. Completion of the task may ease the electricity crisis, but other Westwing transformer replacements are not expected to be completed until next summer. In the meantime, the utilities said they will ask customers to conserve electricity for the rest of this summer, particularly during the peak-use hours of 3 to 6 p.m. daily.
Not quite Patrick Henry or even O. Henry but “Give Us Connectivity or Give Us Death!”
Oh yeah. I have. In 1991, I was a student in Lucknow when massive rioting broke out across North and West India after the medieval Babri Masjid mosque was demolished by goon squads from Modi’s party. My family, 1600 kilometres away, had no way of contacting me until I managed to call home from a public call centre past midnight after waiting for hours (and was limited to 1 minute of conversation). They had until then no way of knowing if I was alive and well.
“. . . the reality facing Kiev and Lviv and other major cities across Ukraine. Ukraine, even with NATO support, is struggling to keep the lights and heat on.”
The real reality is that you don’t hear anything about this on western mainstream media. Just silence. Oh, and how Zelensky and Co., are winning the war.
I like Gonzalo Lira. I really do. But while viewing his video the thought did cross my mind that what this guy really needs, right now, more than electricity, is a hot shower, a shave, definitely a haircut, maybe a little pampering at a spa, a facial to get rid of the bags under his eyes, and some clean clothes (some real clothes, for the real Russian winter). I hope he has a Russian parka, a real Russian rabbit fur Bomber hat, a good pair of gloves, a couple of pairs of warm wool socks, and some winter boots, too. Maybe some winter bib coveralls. Going by appearances, this guy is just not ready. He, like his neighbors, may have to abandon ship, and he is just not ready.
Derrr (sucks thumb) . . . does no electric mean my shiny new electric car wont work?
Well . . . even with electric, there isn’t enough available capacity to charge up all the millions of leccy cars that will be mandated in five years time.
Derrr (sucks thumb) . . . so we’ll be ok then?
Has there ever been an “empire” that concatenated incompetence and malice to such a profound degree as the “United” “States”? Factor in the satanic degeneracy that constitutes its leading export, and one can only hope and pray for its complete collapse.
“. . . if Russian hypersonic weapons created a revolution in military affairs, American ones will fail to do so.”
The way I read Andrei Martynov’s statement, even if the US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) comes up with a hypersonic missile they will still be at least five (5) years behind the Russians.
Russian hypersonic missiles are being used on the battlefield. One can assume the Russians are improving on this new technology all the time. Who knows what the Russians will come up with in 5-years.
Meanwhile, if the MIC comes up with a hypersonic missile it will be just another untested, un-used piece of technology, like one of Hitler’s promised too late secret weapons.
“Very few in modern industrial nations know what it is like to be cut off from news about world events.”
Our famously free press here in the west has been controlling the news for quite a while now. If they don’t want you to know about it you won’t. Consequently, I believe, much of the people in the west don’t know what is going on, anywhere. They are cut off, especially with all this Fog of War stuff going on.
Now, I don’t know if this is going on, or applies to the corporate oligarchs running our so-called modern industrial nations? Are they cut off, too? If not, where are they getting their news from?
From the start of the Russian SMO I thought that this would soon be a textbook study of how to defeat a crumbling, very dangerous, former superpower without getting stepped on by the dying elephant (USA).
I see this de-electrification in Ukraine as what is coming to the USSA, after all this is a war between the USA and Russia.
Added to the sheer volume of mass migration, Ukraine out, USA in, and the ensuing chaos. I see a mass flow of people out of the USA in the near future, about the time the lights go out.
Where are Americans supposed to go in this “mass flow of people out of the USA?” Just asking.
Back in 1942, at the height of World War II, they made a movie called “Casablanca.” In it everyone in Casablanca was waiting for their exit visa to escape to the United States. Albert Einstein and his family, like many, escaped Germany for the United States.
As we begin what most certainly seems to be another World War, where all the years from 1945 until present were only the interregnum, the pause, the intermission between one world war and the next, all this talk about Americans fleeing to another country, you have to ask: “Where?”
The United States, Europe, and the UK, have never seen such an influx of people migrating into their countries. Look at the boat people. Look at the southern border or the United States. Almost all of this is by NGOs like George Soros. Some countries, like Italy, have said: “Enough!”
If you were an American what is the impetus to leave when so many millions are looking to get into your country?
I’m just curious. Most American emigres are wealthy, independently so. They can go anywhere they want to. Tina Turner emigrated to Switzerland. But the average American?
Again, just asking. Leave or stay. It’s a valid consideration. If the Jews (and the intellectuals, the mentally deficient, the political dissidents, etc.), had stayed in Germany during World War II their shared fate would have been the concentration camps. Is that a fatum Americans should consider with the way things are going? Curious.
Many will die, likely most. The decadence and decay rival the roaring ’20’s.
The wealthy, young and motivated will leave, likely to Asia and South America.
Mexico is already complaining about Americans buying properties.
How will they die?
I have been to some of these countries in South America. Some of them are exactly what Trump called them: shithole countries.
Zerohedge runs one of these articles almost monthly about how many Americans are emigrating to Mexico. I think it’s just more propaganda, mainly to make as much room as possible for more Mexicans and South Americans to our border into this country.
How many millions will cross over into this country in 2022? And how many Americans will they pass heading south? Two? Three maybe?
I don’t know. There is something really squirrelly about this logic and these numbers, especially today when the entire concept of private property has become subjective. Just ask Russia, and the Russian people.
“You will have a job, a house, a home, a family, a bank account, your money, safety in your property, persons, and possession until somebody (the United States government) doesn’t like you, and then you won’t.”
How will they die?
First, embrace the culture of death, killing babies, profitable childhood genital surgery leads to suicide, kill the old, (Canada is taking a lead this but it is carried out unspoken in the US), allow almost unrestricted fentanyl importation, unrestricted migration which will lead to societal collapse, civil war, depends.
Restrict farmers from farming, restrict energy mining. Send industries wholesale overseas, Ohio? Steal the value of people’s savings.
Did I mention yet mRNA vaxxes with the Graphene Oxide additives? That is a 3-10 year kill window.
Yes, I’m a conspiracy theorist, but I don’t have myocarditis…
But when do the lights go out? Don’t poke the bear.
SMO is just a sideshow in the clash of empires.
Wonder what the food supply is like in Ukraine?
Will Russia refuse western efforts to get food in if it is needed?
It sounds like there could be massive hunger this winter.
What western efforts to get food in? West have been the main destination for grain leaving Ukraine for months. If there is massive hunger this winter there, it would be because western effort took all their grain.
Soldiers in the trenches have bigger problems than not being able to phone home. I am sure that large number of them is already willing to surrender or just run away, but they can’t because they will be shot by “their own”.
Any civillians trying “unrest and revolt” thing will instantly end up taped to a pole with pants down.
The number of people wanting to leave has been very high for a while, but so was the border security. Zelenski & co. won’t let cannon fodder and meat shield run away.
There were some jewels in this post. One truly struck me. I had a gig training soldiers deploying to the sandbox on Soviet belt fed weapons for a while. We traded war stories and drank some beer. They told me they got to call home every day. I was like? “Huh?”. When I was deployed, the Red Cross might come get you and drag you to the phone if someone at home died. You got letters. No matter where they were, they had Satellite phones or something. I was astounded. And yes. When they cannot call home every day, the Ukrainian drafted at gunpoint cannon fodder, are going to get even more restive.
Since your blog is dedicated to analysis of world affairs and it’s relationship to our Greater American Empire: thank you for the access to this fascinating and insightful look into a modern war fought (as you have mentioned previously) almost like WW1, subsequent to the denial of air cover for the Ukraine forces. As an ex-submariner, I recall our pithy sayings in re surface ships, known as “targets”. Denial of a surface navy means no projection of force abroad (air cover), and now it seems the Russians (or the Chinese?) don’t even need submarines to take out the carrier groups.
I have replied to other commenters here regarding the history of our last major war against our modern “Satan”, Hitler. Andrei Martyanov site bans ‘holocaust denier’ comments; the nation of Russia has a law banning holocaust denial. This is a point of great interest to me.
I am in favor the Russians defeating the jewish control of Ukraine; they are obviously tools for the great money powers of the West, as recently witnessed with the laundering schemes of the FTX digital coin scam. Our government is controlled by these worshipers of Mammon. These are the servants of the Father of Lies, the actual Satan as called out in our Christian Bible. Inversion of Truth into Lies is one of the greatest tools of Satan.
The Russians have their own reasons for this war, as they have spelled out earlier. They did not mention jews. But as a secondary benefit to the world, they are destroying the globohomo control of the jewish money power which has brought the same cultural and economic degradation to West that they brought Europe after the marxist (jewish) revolutions after 1848. Weimar Germany was horrific for those once-middle class Germans. And then the jews won WW2. Welcome to Weimar America. Perhaps the Russians will set us free.
God bless you for your work in bringing the truth of what is happening in that far-away place, and the realities of the horrors of war.
The Russians did not mention Jews, because they have more sense than to distort history by demonising any particular group. I suggest you take a leaf out of their book.
Am I demonizing all Jews by calling out Soros, SBF, or the neocon/neoliberal cabal controlling US foreign policy and the Biden Administration? That a few Jewish oligarchs and a Jewish president control Ukraine?
Is it simply coincidence?
Or can the question even be asked?
I am guessing that the super geniuses in the Deep State forgot that without electricity, it is difficult in the modern world to spread propaganda.
If they are relying on their “wonderfully” constructed lying machines, i.e. the MSM, to carry the ball over the goal line, this is going to be an enlightening moment for them.
https://thesaker.is/electric-war/
This is a succinct treatment of how Russia is defeating the West and also note his inclusion of a short mention of Davos machinations in Europe. The obvious Great Game consideration is, however, less clearly stated that the Empire of Bullshit is fighting a two front war with itself. Globalists are dismantling NATO countries including the USA while Washington, seemingly obliviously, proceeds to send ever diminishing supplies of war materials to Ukraine. If Ukraine even wins this war (virtually impossible) the Western oligarchs can only look forward to looting the country as the Ukrainian varieties were gainfully doing in the decades before this war. Now the West is locked in an existential war with its own Davos oligarchs that are in turn looting the West and Russia has at least been forced to defend itself against the reduced threat of NATO and a collapsed EU. The US and other Davos captured countries cannot engage in war when the internal one is being run against them and is deindustrializing their societies. I wonder why Pepe did not state this more clearly. To be sure Putin and Xi know the score.
FWIW,
L.
“Can you imagine the withdrawal the 20 and 30 year olds in Ukraine will experience when their phones and computers are dead and they can no longer text or call a friend? I am not sure the intelligence communities of various nations have even taken time to cogitate on the implications of such a development.”
That’s a remarkably astute observation there, Larry, and I can’t Imagine how any of the so-called intelligence agencies, stink-tanks or the perfumed princes of the pentagram could have ever considered this aspect of Modern Mechwar. Defeating an Enemy requires, in the End, Defeating their Will to Fight. Millions of ‘denizens of the internet’, soibois and snowflakes, sitting alone in the Dark, shivering and hungry, are more likely to Welcome the Red Army as ‘saviors’ rather than Fight.
Russia understands this better than any other Nation, having repeatedly been Invaded and pushed back to their Capital, yet every Time managing to Crush the Invaders through Sheer Guts and Patriotism. after the last ‘incident’, Russia has carefully and methodically prepared to ‘fight the Last War’, but Learning from the Experience, bringing into service some of the most Powerful and Sophisticated Weapons ever developed.
When (not If) the rest of the Ukraine finally Collapses, hopefully it will be the Push that brings down the globalist/zionist ’empire’. Unfortunately, We are right where the Impact will Hit.
I know you won’t post this, but I will write it anyway.
“Have you ever been in a situation where you were separated from a loved one and could not communicate with them for more than 24 hours, especially when you do not know if they are alive or dead?”
Yes. When I was 14, after both my older sisters were no longer living at “home”, my parents started going away for weekends & leaving me locked out in the street. No warning they were going anywhere, no note, no key to the house.
That 1st time, sitting in the yard, seeing my father’s car locked in the garage, knowing they took my mother’s benz, not knowing what was going on, if or when they would return…
…the sick fear in the pit of my stomach returns often in the middle of the night. I lie awake wishing I hadn’t been born, that my mother’s meddling aunt hadn’t intervened & prevented her “hysterectomy” (read “abortion”). Then make coffee & go online to distract myself. Like tonight…
my gut tells me these people will not have the grit that kept people alive during the siege of Leningrad… good times make weak people.
One has to be careful in assessing Air Defense systems and technology. Air defense systems are there to protect valuable assets. You will never have enough to protect everything. Also they are never 100% effective.
Ukraine has to few.
Saudia Arabia had Patriot systems that are not suitable against drones. You do not use S300/S400 against small drones. You use something such as the Iris-T or NASSAM or the Gepard System and then you use these systems top protect the S300/Patriot systems.
If needed the Americans will develop their Hypersonic missiles in record time if they commit enough money and resources. It is just a matter of how urgent it is. And they will find something to counter these missiles.
“If he can do it so can I…” That is one of my mottos….
Nobody is invincible nor replaceable…..
It seems the West doesn’t have systems that can shoot down drones and/or regular missiles at the theater level, either.
I think you are absolutely right but are thinking in too small a perspective. You hypothesize that the young people in Ukraine will flee to countries with an electrical grid but where will the young people in all of the EU flee when their electrical grids all become unstable. Likely by the winter of Jan 2023 there will be little if any heat or electricity in any country in the EU that will also be flooded with 10’s of million war refugees from Ukraine. It appears that Europe is poised to experience akin to the bad old days of the collapse of the Soviet Union if not even worse. It is one thing for the US and Canada to be so colossally stupid to do this war but the Europeans are many degrees of magnitude more insane. The Swiss Psychologist Jean Piaget famously concluded that most adults are incapable of abstract thought. The European response to the war in Ukraine shows that most adults are incapable of even concrete thought either.