Let me give you the bottomline up front–Ukraine’s military units in the Donbass in the area of Lysychansk are now essentially encircled, which means Ukraine is facing the loss of at least 15,000 troops unless they are able to retreat.
Some pundits refer to this as Deep Operational Encirclement:
The basic concept of the Operational Maneuver Group is to fracture the stability of the enemy defense at the earliest possible moment by conducting deep operational maneuver into the enemy’s rear area. Once in the enemy rear, the OMG’s main purpose is to help smooth and accelerate the progress of the main force by eroding the defense from within.
Although Russian troops do not occupy all the strategic chokepoints between Lysychansk and points west, there is only one road open and Russian artillery and air assets can fire at will on that road. Any column of vehicles or soldiers attempting to move west face a high probability of withering fire.
If you want to delve into the nitty gritty of the tactical situation, please watch the video from the Military Summary channel.
The video briefing clearly shows that Russia is making steady and significant progress in carving up and isolating large contingents of the Ukrainian army deployed in the Donbass. Do you think this qualifies as a “game changer?”
Depends. If Ukraine could mount a large counter-offensive it could stall or weaken the Russian advance. But we are at 13 weeks into the war and Ukraine has been unable to launch such an operation. Which brings me to what are the actual game changers in the 21st Century battlefield.
First game changer–video conferencing. I vividly recall sitting in the Joint Exercise Control Group at a U.S. base in July 2005 and witnessed a Marine Colonel’s first encounter with a portable, secure video conference system. The guy was obsessed with it. Like a kid with a brand new toy. And like any kid given a toy hammer, you quickly discover everything needs to be hit.
Now this was not the first time this technology had been used. I first encountered Secure Video Teleconferencing in December 1989. But that was hard wired technology that connected the White House with key agencies (e.g., CIA, DOD and State Department). What emerged after 9-11 was a portable, deployable capability that gave the leadership in Washington the ability to chat with field commanders–in a virtual face-to-face–in real time.
This is a blessing and a curse. These were classified ZOOM meetings before there was ZOOM and, like the kid with the hammer, the need for video conferences escalated. The blessing was that the guys and gals back in Washington had real time info from the guys on the frontlines. It also eliminated the need to travel in order to hold a meeting. Remember the distances that Churchill and Roosevelt traveled in World War II to meet with Joe Stalin? Those journeys occupied days and weeks. What would have happened in World War II if the Big Three could ZOOM at will? A great subject for a future dissertation.
The curse? People found themselves sitting in front of screens talking instead of being out in the field directing troops and operations.
Drone technology is the next game changer. Prior to the emergence of the drones, commanders had to rely on fixed wing air craft manned by pilots or satellites to gather overhead imagery about the locations and movements of enemy military forces. But each of those systems had limits. Remember the movie Patriot Game? Remember the scene when a British SAS unit is shown via satellite relay attacking an IRA terrorist camp in North Africa? That satellite only was overhead for a short period of time. It could not hover and collect for extended periods of time. Fixed wing aircraft have the same limitation. A high flier like the U-2 or SR-71 Blackbird can take pictures along its line of flight but the film had to be processed and then distributed.
Drones now give a ground commander the ability to see in real time, for extended time, the activity at an enemy position. The drone also can collect a variety of information beyond video and can be used to accurately target fire. This has been a game changer for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. Although Ukraine still has the ability to launch drones, a large number of those are routinely shot down by Russian air defense systems. Ukraine has not been been able to use the drones effectively to target and destroy Russian positions.
The Russians, by contrast, have reaped the benefits of the drone. They are tracking Ukrainian troop movements, they are hitting entrenched artillery and troop emplacements and they are conducting extended reconnaissance in areas of future operations. While this is a clear advantage for the Russians, they have not prevented the Ukrainians from moving troops and materiel to reinforce some units. The Russians also have not been able to prevent sporadic shelling by Ukrainian artillery of a few Russian border villages.
If drones existed in World War II it is doubtful the Soviets could have mounted the offensive that saved Stalingrad because the Germans would have seen the assembling and movement of the Soviet force east of Stalingrad. The Allied invasion at Normandy probably would have been detected and defeated if the Germans had drones. The lack of eyes in the sky left the World War II ground commanders largely blind.
There is another game changer that, thank God, we have not yet seen (and I pray we never will)–space war. The world has become dependent on satellites orbiting the earth that facilitate communication and intelligence collection. What happens if the Russians, with their back to the wall, decide to take out a majority of U.S. military and intelligence satellites? I think the term, catastrophic, would be appropriate. My intent is not to frighten you. But it is a capability and vulnerability that exists and could be attacked under certain circumstances.
Look Larry, World War II commanders DID have eyes in the sky! Observation aircraft were in fact the first use of the airplane for military purposes early in World War I. The Army Air Forces had reconnaissance squadrons in World War II and each Army division had a unit of light airplanes for reconnaissance and to direct artillery fire. There were also drones, although they were used more as weapons than for observation. The Air Force developed drones in the 1950s and they were widely used in Vietnam although they were used primarily over North Vietnam since South Vietnam was covered by an armada of reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering aircraft such as the OV-2 Mohawk equipped with side-looking radar and infrared. The difference now is that everybody has drones, most of which are basically model airplanes with cameras. Some carry small weapons. You don’t mention it, but allude to the vulnerability of drones. Back in the 90s during the Iraq no-fly years there was a video that appeared on line of footage from a drone. It shows an Iraqi missile being fire and tracking straight to the drone, and the end of the footage. I believe that was one of the highly sophisticated drones controlled by pilots at Indian Springs.
I believe you are correct that Russian troops are on the verge of destroying or capturing a large Ukraine force in the Donbas region. I’m just not sure it’s because of drones and video conferencing. One of the lessons that was supposedly learned from Vietnam – but was evidently quickly forgotten – was that trying to run a war from thousands of miles away wasn’t a good idea. Wars are won by troops on the ground, not generals in padded chairs that troops never see.
Drone technology matured after the 2001 afghan invasion , used to be just recon variant and then they added weapons to the drones and the rest is history.
As for vietnam theatre , it is an eye opener to see how the numerous ground sensors , LRRP/Recon teams , Gunships / Strike aircraft , all failed to detect and stop the vietnamese supply line in Ho Chi Minh trail. The effort expended to interdict the supply line was futile , even the last gasp during LAM SON 712 ground incursion turned out to be a rout for the ARVN.
The much touted Technological advantage which looks good on paper and give warm fuzzy feeling of superiority always turned out to be far less effective against real enemy..
Right, but recon air was limited and constrained by time and distance. Drones have eliminated that problem.
In my estimation, it is arguably the drones at the squad, company, and battalion level that are demonstrating unprecedented importance in this war. Indeed, I believe their value has been shown to be so high that it will spur a *rapid* development cycle of both ground-to-air and air-to-air anti-drone tech, and that tech is likely to proliferate to an astounding degree by the end of this decade. I predict that, in any conflict between the US, Russia, China, Iran, India, and other relatively powerful states, we are likely to see literal swarms of drones over the battlefield — a great many of them operating autonomously via sophisticated AI programming. We are likely to witness great drone “dog-fights” over future battlefields.
I have also long been convinced that, in the next great power war, the first targets of the combatants will be the enemy’s satellites. I strongly suspect the overwhelming majority of orbiting communications and surveillance satellites will be blasted to smithereens within days of the onset of hostilities — and that whichever country has best prepared for that likelihood will have a pronounced advantage during the ensuing war.
agreed on your assesment
the future will be AI controlled autonomous drone swarm operating independently doing Recon , Strike , EM/EW , Anti-drone and many more function traditionally used by Air Force. The traditional operator-controlled UAV/UCAV will still be there , possible as main node controller for drone swarm before they go autistic / autonomous.
The eyes and ears (space based) of the west will be poked blind and deaf in early stages of peer vs peer warfare. The Western airforce and ground troops will be blind , deaf and lost and have to resort to traditional navigation skill with compass
Wars used to be won on troops on the ground. What you don’t seem to understand is the technology being used today which much of the best and highest tech is not even made available for regular civilians like ourselves. The war game has changed. China isn’t going to be using fighter jets. They’re going to have motherships which release hundreds or thousands of armed drones which will be used to attack and defend the mothership. The drones will come back for reloading if weaponry and fuel. The tech of today makes the foot soldier the easiest to kill. They’re going to have to take some serious steps to alter Special forces uniforms to prevent them from being spotted from the eyes in the sky which will be using infrared technology which will pick up their heat from their bodies and they’ll be using other forms of detection that we are not privy to because we are not at the highest echelon of military development.
Comparing Vietnam and pastors to today and saying that foot soldiers are still the biggest factor in winning wars is like saying tanks were the biggest factor of winning wars in World War II when in fact it was the aircraft that was the main deciding variable on who won the war and who did it. Of course it wasn’t just the aircraft, but if either so I didn’t have any aircraft and fighter jets to protect themselves and to go on the offensive missions whether it be bombing or dog fights etc. then the side without airplanes would have lost within a month. So your comparison is just not rational and maybe you’re just not understanding the value of the technology that has been invented.
The last paragraph , it open a question : How the US military prepare for war with majority if not all their Space based ISR/ Comm / GPS degraded or destroyed . including the spares currently in very high orbit ? China and Russia retain very modern Launch System and Anti Satellite capabilities.
If the US miiitary never Wargame / train for the possibility having their space based assets degraded / disabled / destroyed , just how serious pentagon in facing future peer warfare ?
When the last time US Navy battlegroups train using EMCON protocols ? The decades of fighting insurgents breed bad habits of blasting full in electromagnetic spectrum but with peer enemies these EM Emitters will be located and attacked.
When the last time US Air force train with their High Value Assets degraded or moved back far behind the lines , too far back and reducing their effectiveness in supporting strike groups. When the last time USAF/USN Airwing hardened their forward airfields against ballistic / cruise missile bombardments that will come when US fight peer enemy ? Heck even Iran showed their capability destroying US air base in iraq with few accurately targetted missiles.
When the last time US Army / Marine ground forces train to fight under massive enemy EW / EM Jamming totally disabling navigation and communication ? Can US Ground troops fight without air cover for long period of time ? How good is US ground troops organic fire support in the time where there’s no air support available ?
When the last time US strategist plan a massive attrition of drone ISR/UCAV when fighting a peer enemy with superior A2AD ?
the list goes on , to show that fighting peer enemy with the ‘experience gained from fighting insurgents’ is not a lesson learned but a ‘wrong lesson learned’ type of situation.
just like how the british empire wasted so much treasure and men fighting endless colonial brush wars and ended up in WW1 with their pants down
You ask a lot of questions which you don’t know the answer to? The reality is that you don’t know whether the US military and the defense department has taken the precautionary measures that you were talking about to prepare for the possible eventualities of the scenarios you’re referring to.
I certainly believe we have, and in fact I’m certain they have, and much more of an efficient manner than any of us could even dream because they’re using supercomputers in artificial intelligence with algorithms that run scenarios at a speed never before seen so they know every possible outcome that would likely occur.. They are going to use that information and use the most probable possibility and work around that for their defensive measures against any foreign enemy which is something China and Russia I’m sure are doing themselves as well because they also have supercomputers in artificial intelligence although the USA has a massive advantage in that department since they have been using computers since the 50s and 60s.
But I don’t think a lot of people realize about the USA is that the military always prefers to seem weaker than it really is because they would rather seem weak to their enemy but not too weak so that the enemy thinks they can start a war but by taking this approach before does it have a break out the US military will have weaponry that the other side would have never thought possible.. there are several examples of airplanes and different technologies that the US government had for decades prior to it becoming public that they possess the technology.
I think your issue with your assessments is that your view is coming from a biased perspective, you’re not trying to be objective, and see the reality and totality of the situation from both he historical perspective and a present one. Your aim is to see America fall in so you’re going to continue spewing your rhetoric that is always going to make America seem like it’s going to fail and is far behind but the past has clearly shown that has never been the case.
However, that doesn’t mean that America will not fall, and that does not mean that China or Russia will not rise and become the new superpower, but personally, I think this is all a game of charades created by the wealthiest oligarchs from around the world the fool all of us peasants to fight against each other well they retain one more power while they create a world government that will eventually control all of us and all because we have fallen for their psychological Wargame to manipulate all of us to fight against one another instead of realizing that the real problem is the oligarchs that are dictating our lives while they live in immense luxury and if there was to be a nuclear war or a biological attack that was going to kill off most of the population who do you think would have the bunkers and the survival means? Do you think you will? Or me?Or anyone that isn’t a multi multi billionaire, royalty, or a dictator?
A lot of people don’t know that China’s President Xi Who lived in America for several years and became very close with the people he lives with here. He knows America and he knows how the American people treated him. He isn’t like Putin who knows nothing of the West and the culture here. Putin is the only one who seems to be standing up for national sovereignty and the defeat of globalism while China and America thrive off of it.
The truth is we think we know what’s going on but the reality is we have no idea but I will say that I do know that there is the elite like the wealthy, the dictators, the oligarchs, and then there you and me, the peasants, who wants to fight the wars and end up dying so that those other people can live the lives they live.
If you look at the history of the American military since Korea we have not been able to successfully regime change or stabilize a single regime that we supported.
Winning wars is not our A game. What we do like no one else is ratchet up the misery index and the chaos index of everything we touch. We make countries not worth living in and entire areas of the world total chaos. That is the American military’s A game. Is Russia prepared for that kind of war?
Is Europe prepared for the chaos and misery it is about to face? If we spent $2 trillion in Afghanistan and $2 trillion in Iraq creating chaos and misery, what makes anyone think we won’t do it again? We just passed a $40 billion dollar package to create more misery and chaos without any debate.
Is Russia prepared for that kind of war?
I suspect that there will be plenty of misery and chaos to go round.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesbroughel/2022/04/21/cascading-risks-the-us-is-vulnerable-to-an-electromagnetic-pulse-attack/
The more misery and chaos the better.
can we drop europe out from comparison ? there is no ‘europe’ , only US Vassal states led by US handpicked european traitors who do not care about european interest at all
Yo soy español.
Europa no existe.
Hemos tomado el relevo, ahora Europa es el nuevo “patio trasero” de EEUU.
El sur de América pasa al banquillo, de reserva. Por eso Biden lo calificó como el nuevo “patio delantero”.
En Europa han hecho la jugada maestra por excelencia.
Han creado el clímax de terror perfecto para que los ciudadanos aterrorizados soliciten armamento y “seguridad” a base de cheques del portador.
Pero hay un pequeño problema, por lo que parece. 🤔
La tendencia propagandística está cambiando de perspectiva.
Se puede apreciar en todo occidente, desde Texas hasta Madrid.
Desde The Times, hasta EFE…
https://archive.ph/2022.05.22-154609/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html
La pregunta pertinente sería:
¿Han cambiado los señores de la guerra de opinión?
Todos sabemos quiénes son los dueños de estos medios. Quiero decir, todos sabemos que los señores de la guerra y los dueños de los medios son los mismos.
Entonces pregunto ¿Están cambiando de opinión?
NO!
“Como observó un comentarista, los halcones como Nuland, Blinken y Sullivan no tienen marcha atrás; siempre se duplican. No sirven a los intereses de la humanidad ni sirven a los intereses del pueblo estadounidense.”
¿Será que los “Lockheed Martin” y compañía tienen serios problemas con los prestamistas?
A partir de marzo de 2020, las acciones de Lockheed Martin pertenecen principalmente a inversores institucionales ( State Street Corporation , Vanguard group , BlackRock , Capital Group Companies y otros).
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lmt/institutional-holdings
Afinando la pregunta; ¿Van a recuperar estás entidades el enorme costo que les está suponiendo la guerra con una estanflación a la vuelta de la esquina?
¿Son los prestamistas de fiar?
¿Europa y la parte de Ucrania en territorio europeo (norte, la parte pobre en recursos) podrá pagar la factura?
¿Pueden estás compañías bautizadas como “systemically important financial institution (SIFI)” soportar lo que les viene encima?
Creo que los financiadores están informando a los señores de la guerra de todo “el pescado” y los pagadores de EUROPA, (que son las mismas agencias) y que también están apunto de la estanflación han dado la voz de alarma.
El dinero se acaba, señores, pero no a Rusia, sino a nosotros.
“El rublo, que Biden dijo que sería “escombros”, no solo ha vuelto a sus niveles anteriores a febrero, sino que está valorado en un máximo de 2 años, hoy a 59 rublos por dólar en comparación con los 150 de marzo.”
Y estamos jodidamente solos.
https://popularresistance.org/on-ukraine-the-world-majority-sides-with-russia-over-us/
Un saludo, Larry. He movido mucho tu información desde el principio por Europa.
Eres de los pocos que quedan en pie dentro de éste submundo de propaganda.
Algunos tweets tuvieron mucho éxito.
Hice copia-pega porque si solo menciono el enlace muy pocos entran y lo ven.
Te pido disculpas si no ha estado correcto por mi parte.
Te paso un ejemplo por si le echas un vistazo…
https://twitter.com/KK_Rokossovski/status/1511277047661973508?s=20&t=t5sGRZXoG2RJVKiqu8S81w
Cuídate. Un fuerte abrazo.
Gracias Deymoond, Es un placer tener sus commentarios.
Dr. Kissinger has said in Davos: Plan B
That is true for the US as well. We are run by oligarchs. And actually a Republican form of government is an oligarchy by definition.
What if our game was never rigeme change? But creating instability? And chaos? Which then our corporate sector uses to their advantage? I don’t think America would continue doing the same thing over and over again if it was failing each time. America learned from the Nazis that perception is everything. How do you know the whole point was to that our missions were failures? What most people don’t realize is that the most dangerous and effective weaponry of any military is that of their psychological operations. If they can make X people think Y then they can get C people to do V. It’s all mind games being played. War hasn’t been about bombs and missiles for quite some time, although, when shit hits the fan, then it does.
you are relentless !!
Larry thanks for the stellar analysis, video content, and sobering observations about satellite-related warfare. . It’s a tragedy, more than a shame, it’s a tragedy that American citizens and the entire world is not privy to this information, certainly they would encourage Ukraine to sue for peace and save lives, cities, and social bonds. Instead, even Kissinger frames the resolution of this crisis in cryptic self-serving terms: “We need Russia, Ukraine must concede territory, Russia is a strategic counterbalance, blah blah” therefore let’s save our face and Russia’s by conceding some “property.” give some some land something less than status quo ante.
These people can never stop lying and writing false narratives. The problem with America is a spiritual and ethical malaise that culminates in cracks, an disintegration in the US fabric, social, and economic structures. And the lack of humility and introspection impairs judgements and ethics. Biden’s approval ratings are in reality a mirror of America’s approval ratings, the manner in which we’ve destroyed trust in our neighbors, co-workers, and most certainly institutions.
Given 90 days of INDUSTRIAL-GRADE PROPAGANDA, censorship, cancel culture, demonization of alternative voices, etc. how can any rational, critical-thinking person walk away from one of the greatest civilizational crimes of the 21st century and have faith in America or so-called Western Civilization? What a bitter irony that these Oligarchs crow about Western Civilization being under attack. The levels of corruption will only accelerate not abate, sadly, imho. Far too many people can see the end, it’s not pretty.
Just an observation. More MILITARY-AGE CAPABLE men die of drug-overdoses than any other cause of death. And yet, while another20% of millenials identify as binary, we have a mentally challenged president not in control of things, no way, and an unqualified VP. We have a Congress and Senate that prefers to “legislate” on Twitter and cable news meaning nothing gets done, no respect for “the will of the people,” while Vets go homeless they do insider-trading deals.
This is something deeper going on here. But no one cares to discuss it or try to create a dialogue around it. Like, for example, militarism abroad will blow back on Americas it always had. I had two 1st cousins who died of alcoholism while living otherwise productive lives.
Tragic how we engage in a war of choice while our homelessness rate and drug-overdoses skyrocket.
Clarifications: Those 2 cousins served in Vietnam, combat duty. We’re trying to instigate war in different parts of the world with a population dying of drugs and sexual dis-orientation running amok. Wonder who digs the latrines and when and where and how they are used. Probably need Larry to write a 100 page manual (when you were enlisted Larry –just having fun). It’s staggering and lunacy that we would contemplate the aggression (Larry can address Somalia one day if he has time, be interested in his perspective).
We have a study from Princeton professors that the will of the people is consistently ignored over moneyed-interests.
All of this is NUTS!
american need a military draft again so young people have to serve with purpose in the military , see the world and all that.. the current volunteer military system is what give ruling gov charte-blance to do wars wars wars without single anti war protest..
re-enact vietnam era style military draft and the system will correct itself as people fled to canada/mexico to avoid draft and antiwar protests suddenly reappear
We’re fighting wars using mercenaries like the ancient Romans. We know howthat ended. Mercenaries with ideologies at the extremes, Nazi’s in Europe (because Ukraine is just the beginning) and ISIS and al Qaeda in the Middle East. They’ll use Muslim extremists to destabilize China and Russia in their border regions.. The election of Obama destroyed the anti-war movement and it won’t return until the draft returns and the binary millennials have to face realities generated by their key-board warrior rants. We’ll see how they man up when they’re digging trenches and hiding from Russian artillery.
You are talking about military levies like in the French revolution where the person is property of the State for a time. No cuentes conmigo.
You are preaching to the choir. I give an AMEN!!
I couldn’t believe I agreed with Kissinger! And he’s right. This will only bring the Russians and Chinese closer which makes it especially easier since they are neighbors. Imagine fighting Ww2 with Japan and Germany being neighbors? Total game changer. Then the next day George Soros says the opposite and that no matter what Ukraine must win. Smh
Well as they say “It’s not over until the fat lady sings”.
However due to a change in correct office policy at State level, I don’t think anyone received the memo.
Not only has she sung but she left town, cleaning out the Bon bon shop in Brussels on the way back to Washington for dessert.
My heart goes out to the poor brave souls stuck in the middle of this, paying the real bills and facing the music.
Things do not look good (from the Wests POV). It is not really modern maneuver warfare if only one side is capable of free maneuver! It has been slowly moving this way since day one and I think most here have known that. In the coming days the importance of wining the information war will start to wear thin, the wining on the ground will come to the fore.
The economic war is just starting to bubble, the real effect to come weeks /Months away.
Options for Ukraine are few. I do not know what could be put in place to attempt any major counter attack to save the Donbas at this moment. VW Golfs and Honda Civics may help mobility but do not add to the IFV or MBT numbers. The big guns will be too few and too late.
Is there a cavalry (or Lancers?) to come to the rescue? If there was, it is under a Russian sky. I would not what to be in that saddle.
I am sorry to say that the game changer here maybe the lessons forgotten. The very basic.
Is it worth your blood?
Ukraine and Russia have no doubt to that question but for anyone else it is the game changer.
The cold, bare analytics are this: I’m in pretty decent shape for my age, older than Mike Tyson, but Larry told me that with a special diet and his trainer I could beat Mike Tyson, and because I got a million followers on YT, I knew I would beat Iron Mike.
But like most of his opponents I got my ass whipped. EVERY RATIONAL OBJECTIVE thinker knew Mike was going to whip my ass, even, probably, the majority of my YT followers, but what the hell its Covid and they’re bored. They were entertained by my ass whipping.
US/NATO knew very well Ukraine was going to get beat up. It’s exactly why US/NATO told mini me churchill day one they were not intervening. These miscreants sacrificed the Ukrainians for nothing other than to make money and unleash misery across the world. Larry and my YT followers knew I’d go bankrupt, my house foreclosed upon, friends defect and my life in shambles. But they sold tickets and increased YT revenues for themselves “being on the hero’s side.”
This is pure evil. It’s little wonder Pepe Escobar and others call it the Empire of Chaos/Lies.
I don’t think the west ever wanted Ukraine to win. I think the wanted Ukraine as an experiment to see Russian might, and with Ukraine losing, it would most certainly create WW3, which I knew had begun when we signed the lend lease act on the day Russians celebrated the end of WW2. It was a direct message that WW3 has now begun signing the lend lease act into law that exact day on may 9th.
They never wanted Ukraine to win. They want them to look like big time victims. Thus, giving rise to WW3. I don’t believe the agenda was ever to see Ukraine defeat the Russians. Just prolong the battle. Make people get emotionally invested and once Ukraine falls the people will be ready to fight WW3. America needed Pearl Harbor to fight WW2. America and Europe need Ukraine to fight hard and fail to begin WW2.
People don’t realize that war is primarily psychological,‘particularly at the beginning, but also throughout. Propaganda is the strongest element of any military because it’s the only way they can get tax payers to fund wars and Also send their children to fight them.
Cordon and clear is something that the Russians and Syrians used to great effect in expanding the Syrian Government foot print from 10% to 60% or 70% of Syrian territory. A lot of the time with negotiated withdrawals. Hopefully the Ukraine Government will exhibit the same wisdom to save lives.
The difference in the Ukraine war is that the Russians aren’t letting those surrendering relocate to UAF controlled territory. Unless they’re non combatants.
Recon and armed drones can get down close to the ground for close quarters work. Gas engine drones can stay in flight for an extended period of time.
One area where I agree with Scott Ritter is the importance of the political equation. Though I have a different view of the current military balance of forces equation. The dichotomy is that the UAF and UAF controlled areas are on the receiving end of death and destruction at an exponentially higher level than the RAF and RAF and allied forces controlled areas.
This is further exacerbated by what the RAF has in reserve conventionally that the UAF lacks. From a boxing perspective the UAF is on the back foot reeling from landed blows that the RAF can dish out at will. That the UAF and or it’s NATO specops assistants in theater have nothing comparable to retaliate with, or that they’re willing to use in the NATO specop’s case. Like light nukes, or some of the more exotic sequestered technology. This results in the UAF being pummeled badly at will by the RAF with no relief in sight.
Yes NATO can replenish and rebuild UAF capabilities. But unless they can start doing it at a faster rate than the UAF is being attrited, which so far they haven’t demonstrated the ability to do. It may slow the Russian advance, but it won’t stop it. Until the UAF can stop the Russian advance, NATO and Ukraine are losing the war. With Ukraine being the biggest loser of them all. Sold out by a political elite and plutocracy more interested in lining their pockets than the national good.
The RAF is constrained by their force structure of limited deployment for purposes of economic efficiency. And the nature of the opposing force, with a lot of them being essentially relatives or close to it that they really have no desire to beat more than necessary to achieve territorial gains. If the Russians are planning to keep the areas under their control. They have the added incentive of minimizing property damage and loss of life during the acquisition phase. To decrease rebuilding costs and get these areas economically productive at a lower breakeven cost.
It took 10 years and 2 wars to resolve the Chechnya problem. Expecting the Ukraine war to wind down to some sort of conclusion in months may be overly optimistic. Because NATO has no desire for that to occur. And the current Kiev Government is a NATO proxy. As is the UAF. The Russians can destroy as much material and personnel west of the front lines as they think is necessary. Which they will do as they feel is required not only from a military perspective, but also to achieve economic and political goals to counter and defeat the NATO offensive in those spheres as well.
As far as space goes. There’s more to that than just recon and communications satellites. Sequestered technology is part of the mix. So there’s a non conventional aspect that has it’s own parameters and considerations. My belief is that what’s up there in terms of ships and forces goes far beyond satellites and is classified. So it’s difficult to analyze it on a public forum when most of the information isn’t open source. And would be in the scifi category for most people using accurate information. And disinfo and conjecture using inaccurate information.
I think that there are break away civilizations in sequestered projects behind locked doors, underground, and off planet. And that there’s a lot of jockeying for positions at this time by the various factions in control of high tech. For what direction the 99.9% of the planet’s surface population’s open source civilization is going to take. But from a conventional open source perspective, Russia is winning at NATO’s and Ukraine’s expense. And until Russia’s advance can be stopped, or a settlement is reached. That won’t change.
Thanks for this. Smart and informative. Just what I want.
You’re welcome, thank you for the opportunity to provide my perspective on your fine blog.
“or a settlement is reached. ”
The Russians will win a military victory. There will be a settlement. Then what? A lot of people are comparing this to Afghanistan or Somalia. I disagree – I think it’s more like Palestine, where the Israelis denied the reality of Palestinian nationalism for decades. Ukrainian nationalism exists. It’s a fact. The Russians deny this. Recipe for disaster.
I don’t think they deny or are in denial about it.
But agree with your broader point that even when political settlements are reached, and capital-letter “War” has ended, low-intensity conflict (LIC) can persist for very long periods of time: in the case of the India-Pakistan border and Kashmir, for 75 years and not likely to be resolved anytime soon.
What can be managed, to some extent, depending on a number of variables/factors, among the most important of which are the intentions of both/all sides, and the motivations of 3rd parties/external actors (US, UK, primarily, in this case), is the tempo and impact of LIC – simply put, how many killed and wounded on a daily basis, military/paramilitary, and civilian.
‘There is no Ukraine. There is Ukrainian-ness. That is, a specific disorder of the mind. An astonishing enthusiasm for ethnography, driven to the extreme.” Vladislav Surkov.
They do deny it, and you’re in denial about their denying it. Big problem. Look at Israel.
Interesting thoughts on space.
The situation in Ukraine, US domestic politics, and other events have moved off the front pages extraordinary statements and revelations by exceedingly credible people such as retired fighter pilot Commander David Fravor, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Christopher Mellon (who, in his role, was part of the oversight process for Special Access Programs), not to mention Prof. Avi Loeb of Harvard (and the longest-serving Chair of the Department of Astronomy at Harvard).
Regarding your comment re: various factions jockeying for control – I believe it goes beyond high tech.
Author Yuval Harari (I have read his books, but am a bit wary of his motivations) wrote what I thought was a very interesting op-ed piece that was published in the 11/20/21 edition of the NYT. The title was “When the World Seems Like One Big Conspiracy” with the (online) sub-header, “Understanding the structure of global cabal theories can shed light on their allure — and their inherent falsehood.”
A close read of the article, however, suggested to me that the author was communicating at two levels – exoteric and esoteric (or, put in plain English, one for the majority of folks, and one for a select few). And in the second reading/interpretation, trying to convey if not exactly, then close to the *opposite* of what the title/sub-heading of the article implied.
On the same topic, I also just recalled Prof. Michael Glennon of Tufts’ book, “National Security and Double Government”, and his exposition of the difference between what he termed the “Madisonian Institutions” and “Trumanite Network”.
Yuval Harari, extremely brilliant, is the brains behind the WEF. Klaus Schawb, in my opinion, is handled by him.
If you want to know Harari read his book: “Homo Deus” (the god man)
If I had to make a selection of possible candidates for the antichrist he would be on the list.
Thank you for the reference referrals.
Great post.
Re what’s in space militarily, I believe all major countries signed up more than 25 years ago to around several space treaties which prohibit use of space for military purposes. So that may be a factor. Who is going to fess up first.
Would be interested in your expanding on off radar civilizations (I call them Democrat’s, Biden’s in space, VP holed up below surface) and why they think they should direct what happens to the rest of us.
Also, what defines space? Like, what point upwards is considered space? Because the gravitational pull of the earth reaches thousands of miles from earth, so is space beyond the point of earth’s gravitational pull? These types of specifics interest me because it’s how militaries can maneuver around the verbiage of the treaty. Like how we told the Russians the Minsk agreement didn’t count anymore because the deal was signed by the Soviet Union and not Russia lol not sure if that is totally true but it’s what I read and if it’s true it preposterous.
Dear Mr Johnson, you continue to be number 1. Col Macgregor is a close number 2, with Martyanov number 3 and The Saker number 4 for written reports. Martyanov/ Christoforou/Mercouris/Hinkle are my daily videos, but they all ramble too much. And while I “suffer” through Martyanov’s repetitive rants, he provides great info in his videos. You, on the other hand are concise and polite. Thank you
My constructive advice to Martyanov to apologize and explain his strong assurances that Russia would not invade to increase his credibility was met with more than 20 personal attacks against me and I am now blocked by the Saker. These are the same tactics our opponents use – censorship and personal attacks. Since I forwarded Martyanov’s assurances that Russia would not invade, when I send out his stuff now, I get derision and suggestions that he is a disinformation source, a limited hangout. No one is perfect. I don’t demand that anyone be. However, if we are the “real deal”, we must admit, apologize and explain our mistakes – that increases our credibility, contrasts us to the MSM censorship and propaganda.
I was especially impressed with you for your respectful, data and logical rebuttal of Ritter, while others did ad homimen attacks, called him a mole or out for profit/fame hunter trying to move to the center for a bigger audience.
Thank you
I thank you for the kind compliment. I just try to present the facts.
i dont see how mr matraynov have to apologize , the ground situation was fluid and based on information at hand at the time no one would see russia invading. but the ukraine govt crossed the redlines and thus russia was forced to execute SMO
as for Saker , i see a lot of people who break Saker’s comment section rule now going around telling everyone how bad Saker is. I call this BULLSHIT , if you cannot abide by comment rule and got banned then it is on YOU.
I find your rant matraynov and saker disingenuous. Everyone who read martaynov know his style , it is not ‘ranting’ it just his style , take it or leave it. And Saker , his site have rules and he have moderators moderating the insane troll attacks in his site.
I only found this site a few days ago, but it seems the blogger understands Russian and this recent article is an interview with Donetsk Peoples Republic (DPR) military commander Alexander Khodakovsky, who explains that victory was by no means certain when the operation began ..
Steshin: So, the first phase is over. What have we learned during these months?
Khodakovsky: We learned that we can beat them. We learned that we are able to carry out all the military tasks that we take on. This has been a big psychological breakthrough for us.
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2022/05/25/ukraine-war-day-91-how-vostok-battalion-took-mariupol/
Parece que Scott sige señalando al mismo lugar.
No soy militar,pero alguien como yo sé preguntaría; ¿Estos aparatos sirven de algo en un estado desvalido de fuerza aérea?
Y, en el caso de que puedan organizar una contraofensiva y proteger estos equipos, ¿Sería entonces el momento de que Rusia entre con sus Sukhoi Su-57 a terminar lo empezado y esta vez sin bisturí?
Un saludo, Larry 🙏
Perdón me refería a esto, se me olvidó adjuntar el enlace https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/05/25/155mm-m777a2-from-poland-into-ukraine-gps-software-update-epiafs/?fbclid=IwAR0SFeCDA7A4Ih8E9U0u3f8yQJhprOax5a3nF1TNn4XTQ97YW9qoq9LsF8Y
Mr Johnson, I followed Mr Martyanov’s link to your site. Truth is in short supply these days sir, thank you. Enjoying the article as well as your website.
Thanks Larry, I would add night vision. And as per your previous article smartening up dumb bombs makes a huge difference.
Would be interesting in your view on Chinese directed energy weapons.
It still shocks me that US does not have hypersonic and similar weapons. Perhaps that goes to the above points. Too many easy non peer battles means no pressure on military to show return on investment. Or maybe that’s why pentagon has so many biolabs.
Malik,
Re societal change. 60’s were truly revolutionary but they also destroyed respect for authority and the concept of responsibility, discipline and honor as adults. The cult of individualism without responsibility as an aspect of freedom was born.
Since then there has been nothing more revolutionary than the fact education is now indoctrination. Far left fascists had a plan. No one understood it. Plan was to indoctrinate the kids. No need to fight the adults. The kids will fight their own.
It’s unfortunate the term “work” instead of fascism and McCarthyism is used. Because that’s what is is. Woke makes it sound like a good think, an enlightened position. Instead of the barbaric truth twisting facism it is.
How to counter this is regain control of education, media and stop billionaires buying prosecutors and AGs. Easier said than done. But this is where the fight needs to begin. And of course it starts with speaking out.
Musk reported his Starlink satellite system over Ukraine was blocked for a period of time. That uses lower end Ku microwave. He got round block using software but noted he is curious to see what’s next.
Currently regarded as impossible to block Ku waves from Earth. Unless someone has built a super powerful gigawatt high spectrum end Ku wave weapon.
Not sure on Russian capabilities on Ku microwave weapons. Made me wonder if China was involved. They already used the microwave weapons on Indian troops in 2020 causing concussions, forcing retreat from a dominant Indian held position. Would put them as most likely candidates to block Ku on US weapons and satellites. Especially lower end spectrum Ku.
anything coming from musk is bullshit self promotion , after all he got millions of musk-bros trolls supporting him online and we got even more musk-cultist worshipping him.
as for your statement about china india conflict 2020 , i call it bullshit
Alex Mercouris explained why the USA doesnt have Hypervelocity simply. They just didnt see the money potential in developing the tech.
The point of the Military Industrial Complex is not to win wars. But to manage them. To make money.
Sad but true. The Hypersonic missile renders air craft carriers obsolete unless a technology is developed to shoot them down.
The US has weapons far beyond they are admitting. The Chinese discovered the hypersonic missiles via their spy’s when the USA was building them in the 2000s. Then, for whatever reason, wink wink, the USA just stopped working on the hypersonic. I can almost guarantee that we have hypersonic and potentially things far more advanced. Look at American history and you’ll see that the weapons we made known that were high tech we’d had for at least two to three decades before making them public knowledge. It’s to our disadvantage to inform our enemies what weapons we have, or to make them public to news agencies etc.
I believe it was Sun Tzu who said in war you must look strong when weak and weak when strong.
I think America has used this philosophy for quite some time.
Dude,
You give America way too much credit. You must be foreign. I have encountered your perception with people from a variety of foreign countries. I was the instructor in more than 60 separate seminars. Each seminar was attended by senior government and police from one foreign government. Every single country believed the US was so clever and so deceitful that we had a secret plan we were not telling others about. The invasion of Iraq, for example. The foreigners just could not accept the truth that it was a total fuck up by that idiot George W and his team of neocons.
After watching the videos Iand reading here I think Russia is making a mistake. Getting into a war is easy, getting out is not. Russia seems to go soft (Desna) and offer a golden bridge to Ukraine. What happens after getting the territory? Ukraine and international comunity won’t recognize it as dependand of part of Russia. It would be a stand off, NATO will supply Ukraine again so they can try to take the occupied territory back. Or using long range missile to kill Russians. Constant war. It doens’t sound like a solution .
The second option is for the Ukraine army to surrender. That way you have control over whole Ukraine, you can write new constitution an demilitarize. For that you need to kill Ukrainians in large numbers so they lose the will to fight. Or they surrender to save their lives. To achieve that Russia need to give them hell. If they wan’t to retreat using that one road Russia should bomb the hell out of them. If they see 1000 dead bodies the other 14.000 might surrender, or take their chance of making to run.
I would have the same with military camps like Desna, why one rocket when you can bomb everything flat? Destroy theri moral, make them lose the will to fight, take whoole Ukraine.In the end it might save the most lifes and prevent destruction.
I don’t think Russia chose this war. They had little choice but to step in.
Escalation is always possible but why use all your ammo and antagonise a population you may govern.
On morale front, I think the Mariupol surrender was a big blow.
Zelensky just passed legislation allowing surrendered or retreating Ukrainian soldiers to be killed by their seniors and colleagues. Much of their army seems to be fighting more out of fear of consequences of surrender than anything else. They are more likely to get shot by own commanding officers than Russians if they stand down. Zelensky just legalized their murder.
Agree with all of your points as the reality.
i see the ‘russia made mistake’ comments are in vogue again. with your tiny microscopic knowledge on the whole situation how can you judge if russia made mistake or not ?
and your ‘bomb them in that one road’ made it obvious you dont know jack about the real ground situation in eastern ukraine theatre.
your reasoning are flawed , your assumptions are wrong , get the facts straight
Yep! I was listening to Oliver Stone in Lex Friedman’s podcast last night, love Lex because although he supports Ukraine, he always entertains other perspectives, and doesn’t make it personal. Plus, he’s both Russian and Ukrainian, but Oliver said Russia fell right into the Western oligarchs trap by invading. Now Putin has become the villain they have been calling him all this time. Oliver is a strong supporter of Putin and Russia. It was a great podcast and both of them are highly highly intelligent people who engage in civil discourse which is a lost art these days, primarily because of the psychological war being waged on citizens around the world by placing two people with complete opposite views and having them argue fir ten fifteen minutes. Back in the day people would actually discuss these sensitive topics with a certain level of respect and appreciation for civil discourse. The elite know social learning theory isn’t a theory so when low IQ adults watch two people on tv arguing they do the same thing with friends and family which is why people can’t talk about anything important anymore because everyone has to be right all the time.
In at least 2000 and 2003 I raised point to ‘my guys’ (4 stars downward), on back channel, of our critical dependence upon and apparent lack of defense strategy for our military satellite systems. Even then the degree of our dependence upon satellites for real time field intelligence was scary, good while it lasts, but what when … ? Yeah, sure backups, but not so simple real time, and continuing updating backup tech against counter measures and maintaining proficiency across the board, etc. Even thought of Tesla theory of transmission through earth.
the backup satellites are in high orbit , covered with stealth balloon like covering
Intel Slava Z is posting pictures of executed Ukrainian soldiers with their hands tied behind their backs. Reportedly found that way by Russian forces. Presumably executed by the Axov for attempting to surrender.
I have written a fair bit myself on Stalingrad. The German line was so thin in that region in 43 that the only way they could have been able to defeat the Russians with drones was to weaken another section of front. Similar to D-Day, but your points a good one.
Just want to say that in all cases, the allies would have developed counters just like the Russians figured out ways to counter sanctions.
The enemy always has a vote. For the Russians are fortunate their enemies are so willing to throw theirs away.
amen!
In the Washington Compost a slight message modification;
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/?tid=ss_tw
The game changer I think, is the lend-lease act (“LL Act”).
though this was likely within Russia’s expectations, especially after the combined West froze Russia’s foreign reserve and cut them off from SWIFT.
i think –
a) Russia could’ve managed the PR better- start kicking out some companies in Russia before the conflict started, if only to gather discussion on the matter (its arguable if it would matter since the combined West ignored written demands).
if that meant that the appx 100k Ukrained Armed Forces (“UAF”) would begin mass shelling first- might as well, it gives more evidence to begin retaliation. though the argument in reverse holds as well.
b) the Special Military Ops (SMO) did not envision such a strong opposition from the combined West. neutralize, demilitarize, denazify were basic objectives dealing with Ukrainian-related issues.
the seizure of foreign assets, SWIFT ban, oil embargoes, Sweden/Finland into NATO created general all round russophobia – all these changes the time projection of the war… with the LL Act, the financing of war materiel now becomes reality, which matches the combined West’s announced objectives: drain Russia.
Russia is going to have to think about doubling down in Ukraine and/or pursue other non military means.
in addition, the Russian occupied cities- Kherson, Mariupol seems WANT to be with Russia. that means its also politically harder for Russia to negotiate the release/exchange of these territories, even more so with the LL Act.
(strangely, to give back these territories to Ukraine could foster hatred in these people against Russia or create conditions for civil war in Ukraine)
c) I think Russia will do what they think is necessary to demilitarize and Ukraine- i think they will move to take Odessa and Kharkov and i also think that’s as far as they should go: regions further West are likely to be anti-Russia and there are not much resources there worth taking either, so even though it doesnt meet the denazify objective, insurgencies are more likely and not worth the time/effort.
but if they do decide to fully denazify- then they need to push all the way to Poland’s borders- that would mean mobilization and a real political and economical effort to merge the economies.
not to mention that any occupied land would also be useful bargaining chips in any negotiated settlement (federalism perhaps?)
d) change of priorities: if US/NATO sends official battalions or impose no fly zone, if US/NATO/Ukraine uses nukes, if US starts getting funny on Taiwan…
in short, i think the LL Act changes nothing at the tactical level of the SMO conflict- Russia will likely still decimate Ukraine, but it reflects a change at strategic level, which opens up the timeline for foreign actors to enter, for the war to escalate and for the war to become entangled in other geopolitical matters (i.e. China-Taiwan, China-Pacific islands, Middle East etc).
not to mention that inflation and food shortage is affecting everyone, esp the poorer nations….
would be great to read/hear your thoughts!
in the meantime, stay safe and healthy!
I have been mentioning the lend lease act for a while now and you’re the first person I have read on any site bring it up which is so shocking. The only time we used the lend lease act was in WW2 where we gave Russia 14,000 aircrafts, 400,000 vehicles, 8000+ tanks, and literally gave them everything they needed to fight the war fir us, so when D day came around we could just decimate the Germans because Russia depleted them by losing over 20 million soldiers on the Eastern Front. But I digress….
The fact that Biden signed the lend lease act on the very day that Russia was celebrating the end of WW2 was absolutely symbolic for me. I think it’s the West’s way of saying WW3 has now begun. It’s not like all out war would start if WW3 began and it’s going to slowly build up.
I believe the psychological game they are playing is to get all the Westerners and Europeans to support Ukraine and become very emotionally invested in seeing Ukraine defend themselves from Russia and win. Yet, when the Ukrainians eventually end up losing, which was the plan all along, it will create a massive amount of support for a much larger war against Russia and potentially China if they either unite with Russia or us this situation to invade Taiwan, which Biden stupidly said we would engage them militarily if China did, which his defense secretary had to walk back what he said for the thousandth time.
But, I think the lend lease act, which was submitted as a bill in congress BEFORE Russia had invaded Ukraine, a whole MONTH BEFORE, which they submitted it in early January, is the biggest sign for me personally that this was the smoke signal for WW3 since we’ve only used the lend lease act once before in WW2.
It’s great to see someone else recognizing the significance of the Ukraine lend lease act of 2022
I didnt know that the LL Act was submitted one month before- where can I find that info?
strange that they would submit it one month before though- for what reason could they be submitting it for?