I was honored to appear on RT’s Cross Talk today, hosted by Peter Lavelle. I appeared with Michael Malouf and Pie Ian. We had a productive discussion on the foolish U.S. decision to keep pouring money into the black hole that is Ukraine.
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Wow! Very informative. Thank you Larry. You and the others were very articulate. This is how programs were put on when I was a young man.
Does Russia win in the long term?
I mean, would this SMO sow seeds of hatred in Ukraine and make Europe a dangerous neighborhood? Is that what Russia wants?
Where does Russia stop? Does this mean countries can expand and create buffer zones?
for the neutral observer- while the short term is clear, the longer term not quite.
Aus Wien says
Wow, great show. I miss RT.
The more germane question: where does the U.S. stop?
Larry, I watched your interview on Redacted and have a few remarks regarding what you said:
1. Iran doesn’t have S400, they have S300.
2. Trump or Obama would not be able to goad Iran into recognizing Israel, no matter how much pressure they applied. Iran has been very clear it will do so only under a comprehensive peace that will include Palestinian rights/self determination (which is not likely in the foreseeable future). And they certainly wouldn’t recognize Israel while Israel is killing their scientists, sabotaging their civilian nuclear infrastructure and bombing their troops in Syria.
3. Iran doesn’t need to strike all oil infrastructure in the Middle East in the case of a US/Israeli attack on its nuclear program. More likely scenario is that they will close the Persian gulf to oil tankers, through which the vast majority of ME oil goes. They will also hit US military infrastructure in the region. $300/barrel is realistic in that situation, with all the implications. The US will have to open the Gulf strait by force, which means a protracted war and yet another ME quagmire for the US, which will make Iraq look like cakewalk. Unlike Iraq, Iran will not splinter but fight back, inflicting massive casualties and there’s always the risk that the war will expand. That’s the reason that even W rejected the neocons’ demands for yet another war for the benefit of Israel.
4. Putin has been very prudent w/regards to Iran, trying to balance his national interests without aggravating Israel – that’s why Russia has allowed Israel to continue bombing Iranian forces in Syria and refused to sell Iran advanced S400 or fighter jets. He is well aware that Israel holds a special place, both in its influence in the US and in his own country, through their co-religionists. He’s consistently maintained friendship with Israel. Israel in return avoided sanctioning Russia (except for some weak lip service) or providing Ukraine with advanced military equipment, which is why this Russia-Iran-Israel dynamic is not likely to change and why from Iran’s perspective, Russia is not a reliable ally.
5. In the unlikely event of a nuclear exchange, as you mentioned, Russia holds an advantage because of its superior air defenses and ICBM’s/hypersonic missiles. But no air defense system is 100% effective, let alone being able to cover all of Russia’s main population centers. So even in the event that Russia strikes first and eliminates *all* of America’s land-based nuclear ICBM’s, *and* if Russia manages to shoot down 90% of America’s submarine-launched missiles, that still means hundreds of nukes hitting Russian cities. That means, as opposed to what you implied, MAD is still guaranteed.
Larry, you mentioned the Beruit barracks bombing as America’s ME wakeup call. I have always believed that Israel was behind it. Do you care to comment?
Larry Johnson says
It was not Israel. It was Imad Mughniyeh. The persistent bombing of the Bekaah Valley by the US, which preceded the bombing, was one of the instigating causes.