Apologies up front for reminding you of Donald Rumsfeld’s musing during the chaos of the 2003 Iraq invasion and its aftermath. I am not sure that the Soviet Union would have survived the Nazi invasion during World War II if the internet existed back then. There is a great World War II documentary with the banal title, Second World War Diary (1939-1945). But it is anything but trite. The “Diary” covers the main events of every day in World War II, starting in Europe with the invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 and ending with the Japanese surrender in August 1945.
Without the internet, news about momentous and innocuous event were much slower and more controlled in getting to the public at large. Events like the bombing of Pearl Harbor were quickly broadcast around the world, but the United States Government limited reporting on the full scale of that disaster. Other events, like the U-boat war in the Atlantic, came out in drips and drabs, without the public having a full appreciation of the peril the submarines presented to England’s ability to supply its forces and feed its people.
Here is a snippet of the first episode:
One of the valuable insights you will glean from watching the daily grind of World War II is that the pivotal battles, such as the Battle of Moscow in 1941, the Battle of Stalingrad in 1942-43, the Battle of Kursk in 1943 and the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944, were not decided in a day or two. Stalingrad, for example, for almost six months. There were setbacks for the Russians and the Americans and the Brits. If the internet had been around the ensuing hand wringing over perceived defeats might have sapped the will of the west and the Soviets to continue the fight against the Nazis.
So what the hell does this have to do with the current war in Ukraine. There is enormous disinformation (i.e., deception) flooding the internet from both Ukraine and Russia. However, Ukraine has a decided advantage in the information war given the massive covert action support supplied by US and NATO intelligence organizations. One major consequence of this operation is that much of the public around the world have been convinced that Russia is either losing or barely hanging on by its teeth.
So let us start with what we know for a fact. The Russian Special Military Operation started with a massive air and missile strikes on key Ukrainian military targets throughout Ukraine and the quick seizure of key locations, such as airfields, Kherson and Zaporhyzhia’s Nuclear Power Plant. Ukraine’s response? Not much. They did not halt the attack with counter attacks nor did they re-take the sites Russia occupied.
Media reports on subsequent ground combat in the Donbas and in Mariupol always left readers and listeners with the impression that Russian troops were leading the way and carrying the brunt of the battle. But that is not true. The vast majority of the ground combat was carried out by Donbas militias and brigades from Chechnya. Russian armed forces played a secondary role, i.e., a supporting role, by providing combat air, artillery and missile strikes. The Russians also provided their extensive electronic warfare capabilities.
What Ukrainian forces are involved? That is pretty well defined thanks to the daily briefing provided by the Russian Military of Defense. The Russian MOD details every day the units and command headquarters hit by Russian air and missile strikes. In the previous six months I have not seen a single report refuted by Ukraine. In fact, videos from Ukrainian sources have confirmed many of the Russian reports.
Here is the real curiosity. Nobody knows, at least the public, the full scope or order of battle of the Russian units involved in the SMO. We have seen scant reports from the Ukrainian side reporting on successful strikes on Russian military command posts. What does this tell us? Russia is keeping a very close hold on what units it is deploying into combat and Ukraine, along with its western allies, is not saying a word about the Russia order of battle either. That means one of two possibilities–1)the Ukrainians and NATO know but are doing some incredible operation security in keeping those facts from the public or 2) the Ukrainians and its NATO allies are confused and uncertain.
What is the answer? The Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.
We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kharkov as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.
There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.
Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.
One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.
This is what the russian trap looks like:
https://youtu.be/F8ajCgT61gA
Perhaps.
Exactly … or:
“Because first things come differently and secondly than one thinks” (L.I. Brezhnev).
Larry, thank you for your uncertainty.
What galls the hell out of me are armchair field marshalls who are absolutely certain of “the facts” that they generate between their ears.
Nature does not work that way and neither do humans.
I suspect that the mass confusion as well as the entrenched positions of “safe in their basement bedroom” arm chair generals is the result of black and white thinking.
Great strategists think in priorities of probabilities. They are rarely if ever certain. They in fact are comfortable operating in an environment of incomplete and/or questionable intelligence, and are still able to operate effectively within such a paradigm.
This black and white certain of thought of course comes from two wellsprings of toxin: American hubris and crappy education.
A lack of curiosity, coupled with a total void in discernment leads to black and white thinking, which Sun Tzu warned about millennia ago.
I am absolutely comfortable with your uncertainty. It lends credence to your analysis. Thank you.
Discernment: the quality of being able to grasp and comprehend what is obscure. I.e., the ability to unwind the complex and resolve an issue down to its core elements.
Hi Larry,
Really appreciate your analysis and the time and effort it represents…
In the piece above you say “Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.” Is that meant to be Kharkov rather than Kherson?
Correct. My mistake.
You are not the first commentator to say one when you meant the other. It may be that both begin with “K” – but regardless I’ve seen it happen several times with different commentators. Mildly interesting.
What is Ritter talking about? Any comment?
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/12/scott-ritter-why-russia-will-still-win-despite-ukraines-gains/
Massive missiles strikes tonight on Ukraine infra + powergrid attacked in mainly eastern Ukr, but some problems also in Kiev, Poltava etc…Power and internet down(even water in some places).Transports(trains, metro in Kharkov down).
Is it some kind of message from Moscow to Zelensky?
In the meantime, Macron called Putin to ask a de facto capitulation(stop smo, leave Ukraine, give back all regions including Crimea, start negociations which is contradictory but pure Macron style, pay for reparations).
Two hypothesis here: or Macron really believes his own lies and probably the sitrep his services provided him?
Or he knows something( crazy neocon stuff like first strike on Russia, Nato intervention from Poland or Odessa via Moldova), something we don’t know?
And maybe a third one, he is really naive and mad.
You know he married an older woman! Go figure.
A MUCH older woman. 24 years older than him. A world record, I believe.
she was his teacher in school.
What on earth has this to do with a bankster full of himself and his importance, sending troops and aid to NATO and ignoring the “Parliament” in Paris as he immerses France further into the mire?
Remember me the Ardennes counter-offensive in 1944. Round the same time of the year, a well armed and prepared German division engaged the allied front at it’s weakest point in the Ardennes , they had quite the success during the bad weather days as all allied support planes were grounded by heavy rains.
Then the sky cleared up, allied reinforced the front , stopped the Germans , pushed back and not a month later, they entered Aachen , first Germans town to fall…
I think his wife is what used to be called: “a beard”. For optics only.
There is a likelyhood that madame is in fact a he.
Or Macron is Biden Blinken mouthpiece.
And aware they will escalate and escalate until this ends in disaster.
EU is now a US/ UK colony.
now? lol
Being French, I can give the answer : Macron is both stupid and naive.
Besides, he’s stark raving mad ( https://www.francesoir.fr/politique-france/adriano-segatori-macron-psycopathe ).
That fairly describes most politicians.
Nanoistan, where did you see that Macron asked for Russia capitulation, etc. etc. The conversation centred on two subjects; the safety of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and the export of Russian grain. Macron is definitely not in a position to menace anyone. France just shut down half of its nuclear generation that represents 70% of total national generation. Given the current situation of EU energy front, this looks like the works of the mysterious Murphy’s law (or is it the perfect storm in the making?). The call for capitulation came from the Ukrainian authorities, who else?
The best article I found today: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/671405/
Not only is the lady the consummate Neocon but also the wife of a fellow named Radoslaw Sikorski, previously minister in Poland and currently a EU member of parliament. Last June he declared on TV “The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it could protect its independence.” . Look like genius runs in the family.
“France just shut down half of its nuclear generation that represents 70% of total national generation”.
Really?! Same deal as Germany eh?
These are not stupid people – these are simply puppet-tools of Klaus Schwab, Soros, et al.
The leaders of the European countries are bought and paid for traitors by W.E.F., which wants to destroy the West.
France’s nuclear power shutdown is a completely different situation from Germany’s. France got behind on maintenance on a bunch of plants and also discovered corrosion issues in a bunch of locations that had to be fixed. This is where you’re getting your 50% number from. At least 32 of its 56 reactors had to be taken offline to take care of these issues. Separately, five plants also had to get environmental waivers due to high river temperatures in recent weeks. These are all temporary issues.
Unlike France, after Fukashima, Germany went on a crusade to completely eliminate all nuclear power in the country and is on the tail end of “accomplishing” that. It was down to 6 operating plants at the start of this year and shuttered three of them in January. The last 3 were scheduled to permanently shut down at the end of 2022, but with the war that will probably be extended for a bit.
Note – EVERYTHING Macron does is to burnish his own image in France. Like Trudeau, he a publicity whore and narcissist. He probably didn’t make such a call to Putin – he just told the French public he did.
Whilst I haven’t a danny what the Russians are doing or have planned I’m pretty sure they aren’t giving up and going away.
I think that President Putin has way too much invested in this SMO to be backing out now. If he really is trying to make a new multi-polar world with Russia at it center then he needs to be showing those he wants on board strength and determination and a win in Ukraine. Without that, prospective partners may well get very cold feet about the idea of pissing off the Americans by joining him.
I think this is far from over and winter will be when it all comes together.
Amosmoses. Your not wrong.
I don’t understand people who would say such enormities, that Russia is quitting! Anybody with an IQ above room temperature on the Celsius scale would tell you that it’d mean the end of Putin and his Russia altogether. I am sorry to see anyone wasting energy on such incomprehensible stupidity. Victory in Ukraine is existential for Putin and Russia even at the cost of using nuclear munition.
Hal Turner is reporting that Russia has destroyed nearly all conventional power plants in Ukraine by missiles. Electric subways stopped nation wide. Water unavailable in places.
The frontal assault against the Donbass fortifications, with no real effort made to encircle them, says that Russia is playing an evil game. Sections of the Russian military want Russia to lose. It’s that simple.
Really? First, please explain your expertise in commenting on this. Second, please explain the basis for your claim that “sections of the Russian military want Russia to lose.” Third, please explain how Russia loses. Otherwise, your just trolling.
Its obviously easier to take well-fortified lines from the back.
You break through the line at some weak point and attack from the back.
Attacking into the teeth of the enemy is a fools game.
Actually, attacking from the front (to keep them pinned down) and from behind (to finish the job) is obviously the best way to win.
You don’t need any military expertise to know this.
When approaching any subject, you will be in one of this situations:
1. You know nothing, and so much that you don’t know how vast your ignorance of the subject is; that allows you to speak with confidence of things you don’t even barely understand;
2. You start to grasp some basic concepts; the size of your ignorance becomes apparent to you, and you become much humbler than in stage 1;
3. You study/learn a lot. You become a well informed person, but still aware of how much you still don’t know, and therefore still reasonably humble;
4. You become a general expert in the area, but still realize you are not a specialist, and some areas are not fully clear, although at this stage you could pursue clarity in these areas without too much effort;
5. You become a specialist on some (more or less tiny) area of the subject, with a good knowledge of the whole subject. You will probably never be a specialist in everything of the subject, and you know it.
Your last sentence, “You don’t need any military expertise to know this”, sounds prety much like stage 1 to me.
I have a question for Larry Johnson.
How is it that the Russians were unaware of the buildup of Ukrainian forces?
It is simply impossible they did not know of them, unless there is treachery on the Russian side, or…
there was, in fact, no buildup and the whole event is a media pys-op.
First of all, thanks to Larry and all for this blog: truth and honesty are rare attributes.
Regarding the above listed stages, I’m probably no 2. So please *bear* with me.
Just some thoughts:
– I understand that this is an “SMO”. Nonetheless, isn’t it high time to throw down the gauntlet? Though maybe Russia is not yet ready, being cautious, and as many other commentators have quoted: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” – Napoleon.
– Regarding the *relatively* intact UKR infrastructure: It appears to me (as a stage 2 armchair general) that Russia’s being too soft. Of course Russia wants to minimize civilian casualties, but I find it rather incomprehensible leaving trains and rail infrastructure, bridges, power plants, transformers, factories, water pipelines and treatment plants, etc. more or less intact. (Yes, I’m aware that trains and bridges have been destroyed in the past; but in my humble opinion it seems by and large infrastructure remains pretty much in place. And yesterday’s hit of the thermal power plants? Why not 6 months ago?).
– The rumor about the 100k North Koreans. Yes, a Western psy-ops. But why not? I was talking last night with my retired army buddy and asked him if non-english and non-russian speaking soldiers could be integrated into the Russian offensive. And his response was: “yes, a man is a man”, and that you’d have advisers to help with the communications e.g. air and artillery support, logistics, etc. (In a similar way to what NATO is already doing?).
– Kherkov offensive: I wish I could be as confident as many of you guys. And even though I share many commentators thinking that in the end it’s only a PR stunt by UKR at a horrible human cost and that any lost ground will be retaken soon enough, I still think that the Russia was not 100% on top of it. Yes, they knew it was coming, but maybe miscalculated UKRs utter disregard for their willingness to feed the meat-grinder with their soldiers, or the timing of it.
– Food for thought (alternative view if you like) from Kadyrov, quoting below:
* * * * *start
– I’m not a strategist, as in the Ministry of Defense. But mistakes were made. I think they will draw conclusions. When you tell the truth to your face, you may not like it. But I love to tell the truth. We talked with the commanders at the fronts;
It’s a shame that nothing was said for several days. It is clear that people were not prepared for this. We always talk about our work;
– If today or tomorrow changes are not made to the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country’s leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say;
– The fact that several villages and cities were given to them, there are several pluses in this. We did not advertise, but we have a special task. Our guys stood up and started their work;
* * * * * end.
Anyhow. Thinking aloud here, and just trying to make sense of this crazy situation. I’m afraid this is a steam cooker with a faulty lid with a real non-negligible probability of it blowing up in all of our faces.
Dude you be trollin. Not Russia. Donetsk forces. You remember back in grade school where it was important to read the text and question carefully before answering? thought not.
The comment was to John
It’s obvious you have none…..
Obvious he’s a troll.
You are too simple minded, John. We see you rambling on antiwar.com
This so-called Kharkov counteroffensive is very reminiscent of the one that the Ukies supposedly conducted in Kiev, Sumy, and Chernigov; which is to say, it isn’t much of an offensive at all, at least one that significantly diminishes Russia’s combat capabilities.
Just like Kiev, where is the flood of footage featuring scores of dead Russian soldiers, masses of abandoned armor and heavy equipment, etc? The events in Kharkov certainly aren’t great in terms of optics, but those calling it a disaster are either apart of a pro-UA psyop or over-indulgent pessimists. What’s the [ultimate] point of grabbing all that territory if you barely put a dent in your opponent’s ability to continue fighting? It’s clear that this is yet another orderly withdrawal by the Russians.
The Ukes are still confined to the strategy of hoping to internally destabilize Russia through a relentless PR and psyop campaign, which they have been praying would happen since February. Since then, they’ve mixed in a lot of terror tactics as well, but they’ve yet to demonstrate they are capable of truly degrading Russia’s war capacity.
Exactly
I thoroughly enjoy my nightly updates (and historical lessons) with you Larry, as well as the Saker and Andrei. I have not spent much time on videos as of late due to long working hours plus I prefer reading. Thank you for your sound analysis.
utterly untrue biased for russia bullshit
Really? Try presenting some facts troll.
Exactly Larry. Moronic comments without basis such as from Mr or Mrs Unwise should be cancelled.
go back to sleep you know of nothing
And, yes, I wonder what all those people in Ukraine are thinking about now, who were so happy about the shelling of the ZNPP, probably wanted to meet the winter without electricity …)))”
“Specialists will analyze the effect of the strike in detail in the coming days, but even at first glance the situation is enchanting. Moscow clearly indicated to Kiev the possibility to return Ukraine 100 years back at any time and in a few days. After turning off / limiting the supply of electricity, pumps (water supply and heating), communications, railway, interruptions will stop working in almost everything
On the eve of winter, the threat of repeated strikes, the lack of gas, coal and fuel oil reserves, we can state that at any moment Russia can start an energy catastrophe. If the destruction of gas fields and the cessation of transit are added to this, then even repeated strikes are not needed – the cities of Ukraine will enter the winter without heating, with cold water and power outages
Russia can almost completely destroy the economy of Ukraine in a few hours. If the strikes continue, then without a truce / surrender, Ukraine has no chance of overcoming the winter normally. Following will be a mass exodus of the population from cities to villages and abroad, the growth of crime and general chaos. All that Zelensky & Co. can do is try to prevent a socio-economic catastrophe by working as a collective “foreman”
In the absence of electricity, the guys from IPSO will need to retrain as loaders and lumberjacks. On the part of Vladimir Putin today there was a notable trolling of Emmanuel Macron, with whom he discussed the security issues of the ZNPP a few hours before the strike. Now half of Ukraine is hastily hiding the fat, as the night ceases to be languid…
If we want to bring down the economy of Ukraine and deal with the reception and rescue of millions of refugees from this territory this winter, then we need to continue to strike. In the logic of the trade and economic war, it is necessary to strike once every 2-3 weeks, without forcing victory, so that Kiev and the West themselves think how to get through this winter..
.
And, yes, we are waiting for the first foreign visit of Liz Truss, the new Prime Minister of Britain to Kiev, I wonder if she will stay for the night or will try to leave before sunset …”
https://t.me/geostrategrus/…
I can already spot the Ukrainian refugees where I live. Judging by the dirty looks they give me I think they know that I know who and what they are. The thought of these Banderite scum increasing 10x in my neighborhood is worrisome to say the least. “Слава Україні” graffiti is increasing too.
Winter is Coming.
Where do you live or can you say?
Netherlands, won’t say more than that.
My Putin hating buddy in Bavaria says the Ukie refugees are irritating. If he is tired of these people, then the regular Euro must be also. some of his complaints:
1) they don‘t follow common courtesies
2) they are supremely arrogant
3) they drive insanely expensive SUVs and bling while leeching off the German taxpayers.
4) apparently, there is also a growing perception that the Ukies are lazy. in German that’s a Cardinal sin
What a coincidence. I am a former Nederlander. Not a coincidence that I run into you here.
Another coincidence is that both Larry and Ian Cummer are firearms instructors.
BTW here’s what these scum did to a war memorial back in May on REMEMBRANCE DAY in Nijmegen:
https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6198767/oorlogsmonumenten-in-nijmegen-beklad-met-anti-russische-leuzen.html
Don’t think anyone was caught yet. It’s not clear if these were Ukranian NAZIs or just local ones (Latin alphabet), but of course I expect them to join forces soon enough.
Luckily for them they didn’t have the balls to do it where our boys are buried.
Next year stake the place out and snag the Nazi scum!
I would love to stick around – recording the farmers drench the Binnenhof in manure would make me a lot of fake internet points – but I’m bailing. Besides, as you know the self defense laws here are pretty trash.
Some of the pictures I’ve seen show considerable damage to electrical switch-yard assets. If the main transformers are damaged repair or replacement could take months. Not normally the sort of things you have laying around spare – interruption to water, sewage, metro/train operation, etc. and if they live 10 floors up in a block that is 20 flights of stairs with no lifts.
I agree; this is a weapon one notch below nuclear munition usage in the 150mm gun. It’s will take them to the stone age because 100 years ago, before Maxwell’s equations, people and infrastructure were acclimated to not having EM power. Nowadays, everything requires power to operate. Back then, your horse required fodder that all and your kitchen operated with firewood or coal. How many TickTocker Kievian lady knows how to start a fire? I bet she’ll put her household on fire!
I hope Russia knocks out internet in Ukraine. That will make half these trolls shut up at least.
What exactly did the Kiev Regime and NATO think was the situation in the Ukraine viz. the Russians? They’ve been sitting back all comfy since Feb. 24 with all their lights and gas and stuff as if it is their right to have them. Meanwhile they can act like assholes with Russia and get away with it? Because Putin is a civilized man. Well…I think now that even Vladimir Vladimirovich has awakened and smelled the coffee. So, no more Mr. Nice Russian and a big HELLO to Kiev!
it is rather obvious the pattern of psyops and IO currently posted by either naive useful idiots or trolls..
they all talk about how russia abandon the russian speaking people when they retreat
they all talk how russia so irreponsible to abandon these ppl to ukraine’s punishment gangs
they solemnly said russia’s strategy of abandoning areas to save their soldiers are wrong
they claimed russia need to mobilize now !! as the current defeat (>_< ) indicate russia have not enough men on the SMO
they pointed to the screaming russians on telegram channel as PROOF (???)
they claimed russia left behind many tanks and other assets … (as usual it will be shown on BrOsint disinfo sites)
What’s been particularly interesting to me is how much the flood of low-value comments along those lines dried up as soon as the power went down across Ukraine. It made the psyops nature of so many accounts very obvious.
An increased mobilization on Russia’s behalf wouldn’t hurt…
after all, Russia is fighting not just ukraine but all the collective west
I don’t think the observation that the, call it the coalition of Russian army with local militias, could probably make good use of more manpower, is really trolling. Couldn’t a perfectly reasonable person look at this and think “they didn’t seem to have enough troops to effectively defend the territory and had to retreat to geographic boundaries to make up for it?” It doesn’t make them right, I’m just saying one wouldn’t need to be a troll to think that.
Something that seems to have fallen by the wayside is any attention being paid to what’s going on at ZNPP. Lots of panic about a potential meltdown. So much so that I made sure to purchase extra KI tablets. Then the IAEA shows up.
After that we get Blinky making a surprise visit to Kiev. I’m wondering if he ordered them to stop shelling that power plant…
As for Kharkov, all anyone has to do is look at Putin’s STATED objectives:
> As I said in my previous address, you cannot look without compassion at what is happening there. It became impossible to tolerate it. We had to stop that atrocity, that genocide of the millions of people who live there and who pinned their hopes on Russia, on all of us. It is their aspirations, the feelings and pain of these people that were the main motivating force behind our decision to recognise the independence of the Donbass people’s republics.
> It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force…
I don’t see Kharkov mentioned in his speech, does anyone else? All this talk about Russia taking all of Ukraine is just a libtard fantasy.
You don’t have to occupy all of Ukraine to control all of Ukraine.
It always difficult to know if something is brilliant or the result of incompetence. Retreating looks bad, but it seems it was done orderly, as if it was planned. The Russians had long bloody fights to capture cities. They would much prefer to fight the Ukrainians in open farmland where their superior artillery and air power and locate and blast targets without worry about mass civilian casualties.
So perhaps the poorly equipped Donbass militias fled when attacked, or perhaps this is a crafty Russian trap to lure Ukrainian forces out of cities where they can be targeted and destroyed. We’ll find out soon.
I have been following the Chechen forces in Ukraine. I am impressed with their unit cohesion and fighting ability. They are first rate infantry. I am also impressed with Kadyrov, the Chechen leader. I think we need to keep an eye on this man. He is going places. When this war started I expected big moves like Zhukov did in WW II, but now I understand that the Russian strategy is much more subtle and they are taking far less casualties than the Ukrops. Ceding ground to an enemy makes sense in maneuver warfare, if that ground has no strategic value to the end goal. Any effective offensive to be recognized as such should have the opposing forces on their heals and in chaos being destroyed in a classic pincer movement. Ukraine has not done that. PR offensive with mounds of dead infantry….I point to Andrei when he says the West has forgotten Clausewitz.
It’s always difficult to know if something is brilliant or the result of incompetence. Retreating looks bad, but it seems this was done orderly, as if planned. The Russians had long, bloody fights to capture cities. They would much prefer to fight the Ukrainians in open farmland where their superior artillery and air power can locate and blast targets without worry about mass civilian casualties.
So perhaps the poorly equipped Donbas militias fled when attacked, or perhaps this is a crafty Russian trap to lure Ukrainian forces out of cities where they can be targeted and destroyed. We’ll find out soon.
I’ve noticed that commentators with military expertise who understand the role of tactical retreats see this as an insignificant setback at worst and maybe even part of a trap to overextended Ukraine supply lines and get them into harder to defend areas.
Political commentators and casual observers who see these events as their nightly soap opera expecting Hollywood-like twist and turns every week seem to be the ones jumping around.
Thanks for writing this Larry, it is very valuable to get an expert’s perspective that is not in the pockets of the MIC.
The fact is that none of us have got a damned clue what is really going on over there. I’m ex-military but the fog of war is just as hard to penetrate for me as for anyone else. Sure, we can make educated guesses, but all the so-called “experts” I have read (Saker, MoA, Larry here) seem to be as much as sea as we “armchair warriors”. At this point, unless you are on the ground over there, we are all armchair warriors. All I can say with some certainty, is that unless some sane leaders emerge in the West, we are heading for deep trouble. Let’s see what the situation looks like next week.
… elections weren’t ” manipulated” and COVID is bona fide medical emergency from natural cause. Stay in your armchair and vegetate. Having some educated and theater specific knowledge providing ANALYSIS is essential to help us understand and compare against opposing propaganda…keep up the good work Larry ( and others) your analysis capabilities are appreciated and well received!
I must disagree about “COVID is bona fide medical emergency”. It has never been that. Within the first few months it became apparent that Covid19 is in the class of a moderately bad flu pandemic when it comes to fatalities, etc. The response of governments locking down society and crashing national economies in response was the real problem. There is ample evidence that the Covid “pandemic” was manufactured in order to cover up an economic crash that was inevitable in the west.
Hey, asshat, who’s vegetating? Did you go to every anti-Covid march like I did? Did you get banned from your capital city like I did? Did you get shot in the face by a police rubber bullet? Nah, thought not. I appreciate guys like Larry a lot, but to repeat my point, unless you are on the ground in Ukraine, no-one has a clue what is going on. Sure, we can opine that Putin has baited a perfect trap for the Ukies, or that the Ukies really have pulled a fast one on the Russkies. But we really don’t know. If you don’t believe me, look at back 6 months at any of the “experts'” comments and see how accurate they were.
Excellent thoughts Mr Johnson. It’s a pleasure to read you and to discover always a different and professional angle.
Hi Larry
Correct me if I am wrong as I read the figures somewhere on social media and may not be recalling exact numbers quoted …. however, they seem plausible to me and I can’t argue with basic math.
The Russian allied forces have reclaimed over 120,000 sqkms
The latest counter offensive by NATO, I mean UKR have retaken apparently 2,000 sqkms.
That’s 1.6% of territory
(which evidently will be reclaimed at some point)
It sounded to me from all the noise that NATO, I mean UKR forces had taken Moscow!
I also recall that the Russian stated objectives are 1) demilitarisation, 2) denazification and 3) liberations of the people of the LPR & DPR from 8 years of horrendous terror after all other options failed.
Seems to me it’s never been about territory for the Russians as they focus on their objectives and not squandering their soldiers and civilians lives carelessly. The territorial gains seem to be a byproduct of the other objectives NATO, I mean UkR govt’s actions and allergy to peace.
Anyway, found the above simple math very clarifying together with your regular posts within the fog of ‘media’ reporting.
Thankyou for your clear headed assessments and sharing them.
As everyone knows – the key to real estate is location. Donetsk has wrested the heavy industry of Ukraine away, where most of the minerals are, etc. UKR recovered a few small villages and forests of no significance.
Agreed. And, for the SMO, it’s also about degrading and “attriting” the enemy. Two things the Russians seem to be doing very successfully against the Ukies.
Dear Larry,
I have one big question for you:
Why is the Russian army unable to stop the long-range artillery and rocket launchers even when they are not firing?
big thanks for your work
and love to all, willi
Asuncion, Paraguay
They’ve been taking them out but not enough. I expect that to be fixed this week.
Larry,
After the strikes on power plants last night, might be illuminating to review the numerous warnings the RF has given out regarding hitting NATO command and control centers. Implication in these warnings was placed like Ramstein etc
Russia is finally waking up. Ukraine is being fire hosed with US dollars from Janet Yellen the IMF and direct US payments to the tune of $10 billion a month to pay all their military salaries their pensions and anything else. It has created a false prosperity. The NYT had an article on the vibrant new air conditioned rave night clubs in Kiev. Random pictures of Kiev show carefree civilians enjoying the good life. Well clothed that look when money isn’t an issue. I read tonight that Ukrainians are not paying their utility bills because the US is making sure the utilities stay solvent and no one shuts off the power. The utilities are $300 billion in debt–but not to worry Janet Yellen is stepping in with bridging money. Well Uncle Putin shut it off for part of country. When life is not so good they may not like Zelensky so much.
ZING and BINGO!
Nothing beats playing an armchair 3 star general….and with no bullets or demotions coming your way because of your decisions/opinions!
If I were the Russians, I would have 2 main objectives….first of course, win the war….and second, although not by much, would be to keep the West’s current leadership in power.
I would do, or not do, whatever it took before elections in the US or NATO countries, to make sure the jewels in power now, continue to shine…..nothing helps Russia more.
I would also let Ukraine and it’s handlers advance into every worthless territory they want, the further the better….then encircle them and boil them.
We have to assume they’re throwing good professional soldiers into those advances, not the poor slugs they recruit on the streets and turn into cannon fodder. So you get to destroy those good soldiers…which are harder to get to….i imagine the political class and the foreign “advisors” are keeping the cream of the crop to protect themselves.
Now with winter around the corner, comes Russia’s best traditional ally: Winter and cold.
Ukraine is going to get some real nice thanksgiving and Christmas presents.
The way the world was going, with the foot of the WEF, the West’s intelligence services, their political class, the UN, IMF, World bank and all the rest of that worthless Mafia on our collective throat…..I think in the end, Putin saved us all….he should be nominated for the Nobel peace prize…..maybe take Obama’s.
The ratings heavyweight game looks like it’s this war, against the O.J. Simpson trial….it’s riveting….with the fate of the free world in it’s balance….bring it on!
Gee, I was looking for a bit of regime-change in my corner of Yuropa, and then you go wishing the worst for us.
Not for us….for the ruling political class in power now….they think themselves the reincarnation of the lords of the Middle Ages….and all of us their serfs.
It sure seems the way things have been going that we had very little chance of not re-living that middle age experience in spades.
If it takes Putin and the Russians to derail that Utopian plan they had for World, so be it…..we’ll thank Putin and his hordes in the end…..
Amen, Cris. The cabal with their foot on our throats is, I am convinced, satanic. (Some if them even participate in actual satanic rituals.)
There is much I don’t like about Putin’s Russia — particularly the alliance with China and weapons sales to Iran, both of which I view as very evil regimes. BUT… as bad as Iran and China are, I don’t see them as actual Satanists. So the WEF/NATO/EU/Davos cabal is the worst of the evils.
In fighting against the Satanists, Putin and Russia are fighting on behalf of all decent people of the world. I pray for Russia every day, and in particular for our dear Mr. Putin, that God will give him wisdom and good discernment, that God will protect and preserve his life and health, and that God will give him the strength and courage to stand firm. In three words: wisdom, protection, and fortitude. May God grant these to Vladimir Vladimirovich, and may God bless Russia!
The SMO has moved up a few notches.
The pre arranged withdrawal is the openers to 30,000 human being slaughter of the remaining Ukrainian military and the unfortunate reserves who struggle to point a rife in the right direction.
Who incidentally told the Russians well in advance that the Ukranies where about to charge full on in to the prepared vacuum of a couple empty cauldrons.
The the Russian Army proper, will now get nasty.
Ukraine cities will be in the dark:plus no water, no sewerage, no food, no water no trains and most importantly… no iPhone connectivity. ( the horror)
The Russian Metrology Dept must of said..Winter is coming early. Give the EU voters something to think about!
Note : Canada just jumped the shark. Big win for conservatives who have had enough and everyone else apparently.
Someone should provide a “Politicians political suicide list.” Name, government, date with a colourful graph. I will leave it up to a reader who knows how to do it properly. Also how many seats they lost by.
This.
De-miliarisation requires killing Ukrainian soldiers (and the mercenaries).
You can’t go chasing them beyond the Dnieper, that was Russia loses a lot of troops, and a lot of civilians die, and it lasts 10 years.
Kherson to me was obvious bait – vulnerable on the wrong side of the Dnieper. And the weak front line everywhere else was the same.
Even around Kharkov it seems there have been several Ukrainian deaths for each Russian/LPR/DPR military death
“Canada just jumped the shark. Big win for conservatives who have had enough and everyone else apparently.”
Would you care to elaborate? Maybe provide a link? I cannot find a single piece of good news coming out of Canada. It looks to me like it is becoming more totalitarian and terrifying by the day. If you know otherwise, please do share!
Unz or Zerohedge will have a look for you. It was about East coast Canada electorates. Said Canada has a history of massive swings when angry.
Just googled east coast conservatives found it first off.
The article I read was in-depth about how it would effect Canadian politics and how Black Face would resign before a flogging.
Interesting, “no balls no fight.”
I don’t know if this is what he is referring to but we have a new leader of the Conservative party (CPC). They are the official opposition; the Liberals have a minority government supported by the NDP.
The leader of the Conservative party in Canada was forced to resign a few months back due to a motion of no confidence. This followed on the heels of the Freedom Convoy. The Conservative party is a mix of social conservatives (Christians, etc.) and those who are fiscal conservatives but morally tending towards the woke. Kind of like the rinos in the US. Erin O’Toole, the former leader, presented himself as soundly socially conservative and then did a u-turn, kicked out all who disagreed with him, opposed the Convoy, supported vaccines, and so on. So Canadians opposing these had no one to really represent their interests.
The new leader, Pierre Poilievre, is an experienced MP who is strongly fiscally conservative. On the socially conservative side, he is more in the middle (I think, we will see in the days to come). He is a brilliant debater with a sharp wit who has embarassed Trudeau on many occasions and is not afraid of the media. He has the added plus of humble beginnings and is married to a Hispanic immigrant from Venezuela who is herself a good speaker. In the leadership race, the Conservatives more than doubled their membership. I think the majority of these were signed up by the Poilievre campaign; mostly young people and immigrants. He will definitely give Trudeau a run for his money.
https://tnc.news/2022/09/10/poilievre-conservative-leader/
-speech begins at 3:01, intro by his wife, tnc.news is a good resource for Canadian news
– https://www.rebelnews.com/ is also a good source although a bit more inflamatory. They are often quickest on the scene for breaking news.
@heartlander Now I understand what he is referring to. The big swing is in Quebec. They are in the middle of a provincial election. The Conservatives provincially have gone from 500 to 60,000 members. Provincial politics is separate from federal but I am sure that this will also have made a difference with the federal Conservative party. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ro-zTC04vU
Quebec has a made big swings in the past. I have friends who are Quebecois, descended from original French settlers. When the NDP swept the province in 2011, I asked them if they all talk among themselves and then vote as a block. They said, “Oh, of course.” That does not happen anywhere else in Canada.
Quebec is absolutely key. With Ontario they have around 80% of the population of Canada. They have always been difficult territory for Conservatives but the Conservatives cannot win the country without some Quebec support.
Lockdowns were particularly harsh and long in Quebec. There were also horrific scandals around covid care/policies in nursing homes.
On further looking, the east coast swing may have referred to Quebec. Their provincial Conservatives have gone from 500 to 60,000 members. Federal and provincial politics are independent but that effect undoubtedly carried over into the federal Conservative memberships. Conservatives have always done poorly in Quebec but cannot win the country without some Quebec support. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ro-zTC04vU
Quebec had the harshest and longest covid lockdowns in Canada and some horrible scandals around nursing homes. I know from Quebecois friends that they do talk it out among themselves and then vote as a block.
Larry, thanks again.
You have a wee typo in one of the middle paragraphs. It reads “Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.”
I believe that second “Kherson” should be a “Kharkiv”
This whole “Ukrainian Super Offensive” thing reminds me of the Ali-Foreman fight “The Rumble in the Jungle” on October 30, 1974 in Kinshasa, Zaire, I don’t know why.
And, no, I don’t know anything about military matters…but I like boxing and I’m a big fan of Ali (°_°)
Good morning from Germany, Larry. Thank you for your factual analysis. They are an important and serious part of my daily information gathering. Yesterday evening, European time, I received the first information about the major power outage, which is probably due to Russian precision missile attacks. Is this the first implementation of Putin’s earlier threat that he even got off to a good start?
Well, the German energy infrastructure is being destroyed by interestingly qualified political clowns themselves. No precision shots are required here. In Germany there are few protests against government policies. The strongest protests are in Saxony, East Germany. In the “old” west, the police have already been upgraded to protect the politicians… sorry, the citizens from anti-government demonstrators. From October 1, the German military is also to intervene more strongly in the internal order. Our Minister of Health is going crazy. He sees Sars CoV2 viruses everywhere and wants booster vaccinations every three months. He is convinced of the effectiveness of the vaccine. The situation with the forgetful Chancellor Scholz is similar to that of the US President. He definitely has no memories of his past choices. The feminist foreign minister is wandering around, constantly calling for more weapons for Ukraine, regardless of what German voters think. The Minister of Economics, fairy tale Robert Habeck, dreams of a total power failure, as he described it as a special adventure in one of his children’s books.
And otherwise? The sun rose early this morning. Most go to work and our media dutifully takes care of the correct representation and classification of reality. But at least. Germans are slowly becoming distrustful of the media, especially state broadcasters. More than 50% have doubts. Unusual by German standards.
Shocked by the extreme war mongering of the greens. It’s really unbelievable how much the Greens are in thrall to the Washington War Party.
The Green Party is merely a veil for racist, war-crazed right wing extremists. They have been almost since the beginning of the creation of the Party. A prime example of a false opposition.
What are you smoking?
I really don’t understand the current “panik” level within the Blogger sphere/ Russian supporters etc.?
I really believe that most people on this earth (primary in the “West”) have a memory capacity of maybe 1 or 2 days?
After only six months in this conflict we have seen so many wrong information, assumption etc. I dont even speak about the last 30 years.
Do remember what happened only 14 days ago with the Kherson offensive? Do you remember the news about the coming defeat of Russia?
It was a disaster for the Ukraine with how many dead 10 TSD? And now everything is forgotten and Russia is losing the SMO because of the Kharkov offensive?
Maybe the Ukraine started this “Offensive” to distract western and Ukrainian public from the Kherson disaster and give the “western” media some new resources for their “Spin Doctors”?
One of the first information should be to check the map to get a feeling of the scale of this “Counter offensive” how big is the territory, how much has been conquered by the Ukraine?
50km, 10 km ….
Second should be to check the troops involved.
Do the VSU is fighting against regular Russian forces, or against LDPR militia forces, militia reserve forces/ Rosgvard forces etc.?
If my information are correct than the VSU is fighting/ had fought against Dombas militia and rosgvard forces. In this region where no regular Russian Army and no elite militia units.
Maybe this was the reason why the VSU attacked there?
The loses on Russian/ allied forces where very low/ non existing as they have retreated before VSU. On the other side VSU units are under air attacks and had suffer casualties? Reports say now approx. 2000 dead.
Why do Russian MoD have not build up defense in this region? Good question I dont know. Maybe they wanted that VSU attack there, to destroy the VSU troops in the open terrain?
Maybe Russian want to VSU to concentrate on Kharkov to make progress in Dombas?
Maybe Russian/ allied forces have underestimate the strength of the VSU?
Maybe political reasons: Some tension between Russian and LDPR command?
For me that is primary a PR move to give the “Western” and Ukraine public more motivation to support the war against Russia.
Here in Germany you never here in the news any distinction between the militia and regular Russian army forces. For them is all “drunken Russians” hordes who are fighting with 1960’s equipment against the numerical inferior but equipped with “superior western super weapons” VSU (which of course holds the line and push the Russian hordes back).
Some ill equipped LDRP militia units have been destroyed/ overrun becomes “Russian Army has been defeated” etc.
It propaganda on a scale even Joseph Goebbels will become jealous.
In my opinion, this was allowed not only because of redeployment, but also because RU want to keep entire West and Ukr inside this conflict – they want them too pour more money, weapons, men, they want to drain them of all of it.
Before this, last Ukr “success” was months ago, and RU have probably calculated that if they go on on this route, West might be pulling out before the winter, while they need this to last over the Winter for fatal blow to economies and personel of Western team.
Simply put, after this “success”, anyone on the West who would advocate for pullout and normalization will be mob lynched, since RU are on the knees, and they will now fall/collapse at any moment (they think/talk that way at least)
Also, I believe that for RU side, draining UKR of men is even more important then anything else mentioned here, because just imagine a scenario where this grind lasts for a year or even longer, where UKR side ends up with millions of military casulties, and still looses in the end – after such brake of will, will there ever be a will in UKR population to fight against RU again?
It is probably the only way to erase the nation, and I think that RU are doing it for that reason.
Ofcourse, current simple optics are not good for RU, and RU are playing with support of their people, as that is basically the only thing that can make RU loose – if their population is persuaded that it is unwinnable
Larry’s measured and insightful comments are a welcome relief in the general hysteria that is evident among all pro and anti Russian channels and blogs over the past few days – None of this people are even slowing down for even one second to realize that this is a war of maneuver and mobile offence and defense, not the first world War of static defense – Russia is leaving territory which it can afford to so that it can envelop and destroy the last remaining ukronazis who are a pestilence on mother earth in terrain and conditions that is favourable – That takes time and all people around the world who are in this fight against fascism and imperialism should have patience and keep the faith that we will emerge victorious, it’s just a matter of when
“Ukraine will agree to talks only after reaching the 1991 borders”. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said (and much more he said) Now, it is easy to dismiss Ukraine’s wild claims as irrelevant and more of the same twaddle. What matters is facts on the ground; and those facts indicate that however many thousands Russia eliminates, a nation of 30 million still has many other thousands to offer – and current developments are like manure to flies for foreign killers seeking easy blood.
Since the mask has been torn off, isn’t it time for Russia to fulfil its oft-stated goals of demilitarization and de-nazification? It is obvious even for us, laymen, that current numbers of troops and equipment won’t be able to carry out such task, that a war footing has to be established and carried out. The enemy has become so emboldened so as to reveal his strategic goals, which coincidentally mirror Russia’s.
Russia digging in and defending what it liberated at present would be a clear defeat of its operational goals. Ukraine would become another NATO enclave in no time, and Russian Ukrainians left in Ukraine would be destined for extinction in one generation. That much should be clear to us, people with common sense and open eyes and eager ears.
I wonder if maybe Russia is waiting for the post-Autumn rains (and hence muddy roads) to declare war and full scale mobilization?
With the West pumping weapons continuously and the Kiev puppet happily obliging to feed the meat grinder with as many men (and women eventually?) as necessary the limited “soft” SMO might not cut it for much longer??
So far the SMO results have been very impressive all things considered; but as you mention, regarding the goals of “demilitarization and de-nazification”, can these be achieved with only 200k against all of Ukraine plus US/NATO support?
Military summary (Dima) reports this morning that the reason for the attack on critical infrastructure (power stations) was to halt the movement of UAF from the ‘Kharkov offensive’ to the south and to Donbass. The railways stopped functioning and the RF attacked a whole line of trainwagons loaded with tanks, armored vehicles + military were destroyed. Now there are few UAF left in the south as well as in the Donbass.
So Larry, are you finally ready to admit that you were wrong and that this offensive was not a part of some Russian trap but a genuine Ukrainian (and US) success ?
Since you are taking us down memory lane, consider this point of view:
The Wehrmacht was absolutely steamrolling the Soviets for months. It took time for the Soviets to recover from the shock, relocate their war industry, learn from mistakes and come up with strategies to counter the, then novel way of fighting that the Germans were employing. They traded territory and hundreds of thousands of men to buy time. But, eventually they managed to first stop the Germans and then to launch their own offensives and push them back.
Similarly, Ukraine has been pounded by a technically superior enemy for months, but they managed to first stop the Russian advance and now they are beginning to launch their own successful offensives and recapture the lost territory.
It is the trend that is important, you see ? They have started to turn things around.
Your failing to understand the factors that allowed the Soviet Union to turn things around despite losses, mainly reserves and industrial capacity. Even in 1941 when factories were moving they produced 4700 tanks, 53K artillery pieces, and 8200 combat aircraft, then you can add on the handful of lend lease equipment they received. They also had 14 million trained reservists to call up. Subsequent years production increased drastically. The Soviet Union significantly outproduced the Germans, so the loss of a tank division, while bad, could be replaced. Ukraine; while they have manpower, though not as deep as the Soviet Union had, is entirely reliant on lend lease from limited western stock, not equipment being produced like Shermans were in WWII. In this case the loss of a brigades worth of equipment is a unsustainable catastrophic loss. Had the Soviet Union been totally reliant on lend lease and imports they would have lost in 1941-1942.
I was pointing to similarities in trends and not comparing industrial reserves and capacities.
However if you want to make these kinds of comparisons then consider this:
– you may have more artillery pieces and ammo but if you use them inefficiently it makes no difference. You just make a lot of holes in some field without hitting anything of value. Russians don’t have enough drones and fire correction is done maybe 5% of the time.
– modern weaponry combined with good training is more efficient than old kit so you don’t need so many of them. Just look at how important HIMARS was for Ukraine.
– Russia may have a lot of equipment in reserve but someone needs to operate that gear. If they insist on fighting with what is essentially an expeditionary force then they have no chance of winning.
Another trend is the “Hail Mary” kind where you gather a significant force of armor and infantry reserves and punch a hole through the weakest defenses creating a bulge. I think Germany tried this in Belgium 6 months before their end in WWII. Lol.
Failing to understand the fundamentals behind trends leads to incorrect comparisons:
As for others. How do you know Russia’s Artillery is inefficient? How do you know Fire correction is done only 5% of the time? I’m not on the ground there, I’m not in the Fire control headquarters to determine effects. These sound like media or telegram claims, that cannot be verified. I do know Russia has guided artillery and rockets both Laser and GLONASS. I do know that Russia has calculations on how many artillery rounds it takes to destroy a certain area. If their intelligence is good this will work. If it is not it wont. Since I am not there, in Russian or Ukrainian HQs I cannot determine actual efficiency, i’d just be speculating.
As for the 16 HIMARS; 1 Battery of US HIMARS is 9 Launchers, a US Division would have two battalions supporting it about 54 Launchers. Russia May have sent a limited force in, but 16 HIMARS is nothing numbers wise. All it will cause is pinprick attacks, which it has. The same as above applies. How do you know how actually efficient these strikes were. Did they actually effect the battle or did just media and telegram say so. Since I am not there I can’t say. The only claim I saw with this had only two different days as data points. That is not nearly enough data points to see a clear trend on effectiveness. Furthermore, how many rockets were used on each target and of what type. Was it M26, which is unguided and 40km range (not really better than what Ukraine already had) or M30/31 GMLRS with 80 KM range at the cost of $160K per shot. Since Russian air defense has the capability to shoot down these rockets before they reach their target, then it is required to overwhelm the system to have effects. That reduces efficiency. I wouldn’t consider putting a few easily repairable holes in a bridge over the Dniepr an efficient use of $160K rockets.
Great comment. Thanks for the sanity. You’re showing some real skill and knowledge.
It is how the Russian army operates. The artillery commanders typically get a square on a map, usually some entrenched positions and when the time comes they bombard it.
Does this look like an efficient use of ammunition to you ?
https://tinyurl.com/yc4x2vwb
Yes, they have PGMs but they do not have enough of them, it is a huge front. Despite the Russian overwhelming superiority in artillery pieces and ammo, Ukraine has been able to hold its own and keep the front line steady.
As for the cost of HIMARS and similar systems the US will gladly pay it to weaken Russia. It is just money, the US can conjure out of thin air. The Ukrainians and the Russians are paying the real price.
Have the “easily repairable” holes in a bridge over the Dniepr been repaired yet ?
” the handful of lend lease equipment they received.”
Well done comrade! That handful was about 20% of their total of supplies, but why credit Americans with any of that.
Notice I was talking about numbers of Tanks, Artillery and Airplanes, which was definitely not 20% of their military equipment. Led lease was more important for logistics like Trucks, Boots, food, etc which was a significant contribution.
captain obvious says,”the ukes planned a counter offensive for a month,the russians planned a withdrawal for a month,THOSE UKIE TROOPS ARE EXACTLY WHERE THE RUSSIANS WANT THEM TO BE”.WE DONT KNOW WHY!
“Ukraine will agree to talks only after reaching the 1991 borders”. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said (and much more said he) Now, it is easy to dismiss Ukraine’s wild claims as irrelevant and more of the same twaddle. What matters is facts on the ground; and those facts indicate that however many thousands Russia eliminates, a nation of 30 million still has many other thousands to offer – and current developments are like manure to flies for foreign killers seeking easy blood.
Since the mask has been torn off, isn’t it time for Russia to fulfil its oft-stated goals of demilitarization and de-nazification? It is obvious even for us, laymen, that current numbers of troops and equipment won’t be able to carry out such task, that a war footing has to be established and carried out. The enemy has become so emboldened so as to reveal his strategic goals, which coincidentally mirror Russia’s.
Russia digging in and defending what it liberated at present would be a clear defeat of its operational goals. Ukraine would become another NATO enclave in no time, and Russian Ukrainians left in Ukraine would be destined for extinction in one generation. That much should be clear to us, people with common sense and open eyes and eager ears.
Larry, please ignore my second posting. It so happens that without re-setting the screen one’s comment does not show. A slow learner.
KNOWING WHAT WE KNOW, KNOWING WHAT WE DON’T KNOW AND KNOWING THE DIFFERENCE
“The “Diary” covers the main events of every day in World War II, starting in Europe with the invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 and ending with the Japanese surrender in August 1945. “
Framing is a mode of “perception management” and the framing of the “Diary” is a catalyst for some “knowing/remembering” that German “wars” in Europe and North Africa from 1939, instead of 1938, until 1945, The Great Patriotic War from 1941, instead of 1939, until 1945, and the war with Japan from 1941, instead of 1937, until 1945 constituted one war designated as World War II, instead of several wars largely disconnected from each other, and that “alliances” were more de jure than de facto, the de facto moments being dependent on opportunities afforded to one or more participants in the de jure “alliance”.
“However, Ukraine has a decided advantage in the information war given the massive covert action support supplied by US and NATO intelligence organizations,
The framing of the assertion above posits that due to the “massive” covert action support supplied by US and NATO intelligence organizations, Ukraine has a decided advantage in the information war, predicated on a conflation of quantity with quality, a longstanding and widely practiced assumption/confidence trick within coercive social relations, which also informed Mr. Rumsfeld’s observations on known/unknown unknowns, the policies of the “West/NATO” sending arms to “Ukraine”, and the contention of limitation by some that “UKRAINE AND RUSSIA–IT IS A MATH PROBLEM”.
Another illustration of the quantity/quality conflation is in respect of agency and significance, namely
“One major consequence of this operation is that much of the public around the world have been convinced that Russia is either losing or barely hanging on by its teeth.” predicated on if-only-the-papa-czar-knewness.
To paraphrase Mr. Shakespeare – The quality of mercy is not strained – and oftentimes the quality of quality is not strained except by straining lateral processes into linear “measures” to derive comparitives.
These straining processes were ones engaged in by Mr. Rumsfeld and his associates in their odysses to know the unknown unknows, facilitating their frustrated endeavours since at least 2001 in environments where lateral change is a constant whose variables include, but are not limited to, trajectories and velocities.
Either everyone has forgotten what a retrograde operation is or is ignorant of this basic maneuver.
In general, I’ve noticed a complete ignorance by most key board warriors of basic tactics like recon by fire, movement to contact, static/mobile defense, screening, etc.
Poor Larry has been working really hard trying to explain simple things to the ever-growing band of retards (probably some trolls too).
So, for what it’s worth, thank you Larry. While I know what I don’t know and can guess as to what I don’t know that I don’t know, you have often shed light on what I didn’t even know that I didn’t know. 😉
Larry all you wrote makes sense, my point is another. You and Andrei (and Scott Ritter partially) have being telling in the last months that the ukranian army ceased to be an organised and functioning army, so how is that is still able to lauch massive counteroffensives with many tanks and armoured vehicles? Why is Russia only now starting to bomb power plants and more relevant infrastructures? A possible underestimation of the OTAN capacity of support and supply ukrain with equipment and trained soldiers? Thanks in advance for your eventual answer..
And the proof of “massive” counter offensive? Western media reports, right? I have said from the outset that Ukraine has a 3 to 1 advantage in size of force. The key issue is whether that force can sustain an attack and hold territory. Looks to me like Russia chose an option that would draw key Ukrainian reserves into the field of battle rather than batter fixed entrenchments.
There is one differential problem in this ‘war’ that most people can’t see:
The Russia is fighting for the people, but Ukraine is fighting for the territory.
Till now, I haven’t heard anything about Kharkhiv (Ukr intentionaly) referendum or ‘liberation’ military formation, but I’ve heard a lot about Zaporozhye, Kherson pro-rus administration, referendum plan’s, and even the formation of ‘The Odessa Battalion’.
In short – if you want just to save your life or/and your family, Russia has enough of land and job for you, but if you want to save your property, you need to fight for it, Russia will help you, if you ask for help.
Any human being that expect from USA, Russia, China or any other ‘big country’ to fight and sacrifices their own citizens for ‘liberation’ of him/his property is really deranged human being.
I’m sympathized with any Donetck , Lughansk, Rossgwardia soldier who is tired of fighting the war long away from his/her home, noting that local residents just want them to provide them ‘a free, peaceful, rich life’, without putting their own skin in the fire.
At the end, message to Larry: your logic is really refreshing, because it follows the path of what USA should do in similar situation, not what it will do. Meaning, your perspective of the situation is looking at any other ‘big’ country with their duties, obligations and pride, in respect to their citizens and international community.
Looking forward for your excellent analysis on daily basis.
Watching war porn earlier. Great stuff…
Not sure who was engaging them, either the Donbass militias or Russian soldiers, but several foreign mercenaries (English speaking) met their fate in Ukraine proving what a Chechen soldier said and what a Donbass militia member said:
“We didn’t come here to kill you, we came here to kill your evil spirts.” – Chechen soldier
“If you come to Ukraine with a gun you won’t be leaving.” – DPR militia member
Back to my war porn….
Wait…
The high priest of war in Kiev, the Jewish drag dancer and penis piano player Zelensky is going to headline a conference with US “defense” contractors including Raytheon Technologies, the United States of Lockheed Martin and Boeing to negotiate weapon and munition sales to Ukraine. I am not cynical but that tells me Ukraine lost roughly 4,000 soldiers over the last week for US “defense” contractors.
Seems the Russian “retreat” was a well planned and coordinated withdrawal. Looking forward to more KIAs in the thousands for foreign mercs and Ukrainian soldiers. Anyone read what General Milley at the Pentagon reported by the Neocon war rag The HILL said? Gen. Milley said “Russia has been defeated.” No kidding, he was actually quoted saying that. Well, that’s because Milley is a corporate sales rep for the three “defense” contractors mentioned above.
Back to the war porn…
I don’t believe Russia is losing or about to be invaded by Ukraine. However, Russia is dragging it’s feet in this conflict and even though Europe is in for a very hard time and winter, they aren’t defeated and they have come back from darker days. The more time passes, the more opportunities for the U.S. and Europe to figure something out. What is Russia’s end game to exit out of this conflict a winner? Ukraine won’t accept the loss of the Donbass just like they don’t accept the loss of Crimea, and neither will NATO.
“Europe is in for a very hard time and winter, they aren’t defeated and they have come back from darker days”.
Uhmmm… those “darker days” were very different eras when Europe was still Europe. Nowadays Europe is a mish-mash of various nationalities, religions and languages, all forced down its throat by George Soros’ Open Borders stratagem.
And the peoples of Europe let him do it – all in the name of virtue signalling what wonderfully “good” folks they are (i.e. not racists – Heaven forbid!).
Well this Europe is going to get a Reality Check like they can’t even imagine. If they do come back from these dark days it will be very interesting to see how they do it.
There is something disturbing in the confidence of the west.
You get the feeling they know something we don’t.
There is clearly more to all of this that no one is seeing yet.
I say that because the early nerves of western leaders are gone. They are not faking the confidence they seem to genuinely have it.
Kabul will never fall
Perhaps the long awaited NATO false flag is now ready to be raised.
Dear Larry,
There is something that I cannot understand. Ukraine has more manpower than Russian side in theatre of operations. I would assume that smaller force has to be, among other things, more nimble. Russian side should have a mobility advantage. For example, when there is a weak spot in Ukrainian line, Russians should be able to quickly concentrate their forces, make huge damage locally, and then relocate to other weak spot and so on. Conversely, when Russians discover Ukrainian buildup, they should be able to move in reserves before Ukraine finishes preparations for assault.
But, and this is my point, Russia doesn’t have mobility advantage. It would have if transport infrastructure on Ukrainian side is destroyed. If Russia would destroy bridges, roads, rail network, Russia would have the advantage. But in this weird war, Ukraine is the one that is destroying transport infrastructure on Russian side. They relentlessly shoot at bridges, they send sabotage teams even in Russia to destroy rails, they shoot at train stations.
Please, explain to me what kind of war or SMO is this where one side willingly gives the other side advantage in mobility?
At Ramstein meeting of NATO and ukies, agreed
– weapons to take out Russian radar to be deployed
– conflict to transition to direct NATO lead
– intercontinental missile minuteman tested in US
– more and better precision weapons to be provided
– goal to take all of Ukraine including Crimea
So basically declaration of third world war.
This is clear escalation. Forget the strike (note the earlier failed attack offense by Ukraine looks like a feint out if Russia own book with third rate conscripts).
I don’t share the view that this is a Russian trap. It simply isn’t. There is no way a trap would be set to include Izyum and harm civilians.
This is a tactical retreat. Needed to be done and sensible.
Russia needs to escalate fully to a war footing or it’s going to get a hammering.
You are looking at 400,000 well equipped NATO troops against 200,000 or less. With full US capacity. This is not going to stack up.
Russia may regret allowing such easy access.
There was always the risk that their softer approach would simply make US generals mouths water as it gave time, time to set up defenses, time to deploy massive numbers of NATO troops in Ukraine, time to train time to arm.
First things you learn in war theatre, secure the perimeter.
Russia could and should have better secured or deterred what is happening today.
That said now we get to see what they are made of as this is now a direct war.
I cant see Russia having the guts to strike Poland or any NATO country. That will ultimately be their downfall if they fail. The inability or unwillingness to cut the head off the snake. The fear factor is gone in the West.
Let’s see. Could be wrong.
But US just effectively declared war against Russia. Here we go.
This is now about tactics and weapons.
Both sides have manpower.
It is likely that Putin did not want an all out war and was instead hoping that EU would crumble due to increasing inflation/energy prices/poverty/crime/unrest – and pressure Ukraine into a deal. I don’t think this is happening as it is starting to look like this is an existential fight for West’s domination over the world (as judged by desperate measures such as oil/gas price caps or “ostrich head in sand” measures like decoupling electricity prices from gas prices or simply by all the doubling down that is going on in the EU/UK). USA is not suffering as much as it is energy independent and in the firm grip of the two-party we-all-belong-to-our-corporate-sponsors system.
Is it possible that Ukraine is simply throwing everything they have into the meat grinder and hoping that the sheer numbers overwhelm RFA/militia lines – esp. if done on multiple fronts (you lose in 3 spots but win in the 4th)? After all, they are a country of 30+ million people and, well, desperate times – desperate measures.
Putin is the most competent leader in the world today. That being said, he is not perfect. He has been slow playing this war, and the result is the continual inflow of Western weapons and personnel. But he is a politician, first and most. And the Russian public has had it. The public mood is very much to quit fucking the goat and get on with it. And the timing is right. Winter is almost here. European economies are on the ski slope. He has the populace not behind him, but in front of him telling to get on with it. It is going to get flat ugly for Ukraine right now. The question is what do our idiot leaders do? So far, they have done nothing but double down. What escalation awaits us? NBC false flag? Actual NATO troops? Do NOT underestimate the stupidity of our leaders. I don’t think I need to tell the readers of this site anything. But food, water, munitions, some gold and silver. A simple exercise. Turn the power off at the box for two days. Live. You will learn some things, and your electric bill be cheaper.
One thing it’s important to understand is that Europe is not important to the US other than strategically and UK perhaps as an ally and for historical reasons.
This means Russia fights NATO on its doorstep while US mainland is miles away.
If Europe is flattened, Biden gang won’t care.
That means their hands are not tied.
Look.at the advantage this presents for US military.
They have a great set up.
Short of Russia striking mainland US or chucking a nuke on them there is no downside here.
Europe on the other hand is finished. Either way. It’s done.
So in such a war set up between US and Russia all bets are off. I wouldn’t underestimate the US.
I think however Putin gas shown an indecisiveness and inability to be ruthless when required. There is no such hesitation on US side. They will go all out. I think escalate fast and with huge force before Russia can make decisions.
The Russians are playing a long game here. They are not dumb. They know that the Americans are trying to entice them into full scale war and wearing them down through overdrawn war. I have no doubt that the U.S. war criminals want to invade but they want a worn out and beat down Russia first. The SMO has been a smart move by the Russians being cautious. I do not know what they plan to do next and will not pretend to. I do know that the U.S. wants the Russians defeated though. Never underestimate the criminals in Washington. The Ukranian’s didn’t ‘take back’ anything without some kind of strategic maneuver by the Russians. Maybe draw them out further out of central and western Ukraine. I do know that it is never a good idea to give them confidence back so I am kind of wondering on this news of how much true and fasle. Propaganda and falsehoods can never be underestimated from either side. It is going to be interesting to see what comes of this and we hope for a peaceful solution, a defeat for the western powers that love war and want continual warfare.
I think the enticement is over. It is a full scale war.
Therefore there is no option but to concede or fight in whichever way will defeat your enemy. As they are clearly not going to stop.
I don’t think America wants a full scale war hitting US territory. I think they want to push this as far as they can and if it looks like hitting the mainland they will negotiate and fall back on settled positions.
Risky game though.
The bombing of the nuclear power plant is stupid. It makes a nuclear strike on US soil more likely. How they are so stupid I don’t know.
Blind hate.
US needs to urgently remove Nuland and Blinken. But I doubt the republicans in Congress have two balls let alone brains between them.
I exclude Paul Rand from that statement.
The rest are morons. Who want to look tough.
“Canada just jumped the shark. Big win for conservatives who have had enough and everyone else apparently.”
Would you care to elaborate? Maybe provide a link? I cannot find a single piece of good news coming out of Canada. It looks to me like it is becoming more totalitarian and terrifying by the day. If you know otherwise, please do share!
“Blind hate.”
Nailed it. Nuland, Truss, Freeland (egads, what is it with these demonic females) and their ilk are walking, talking incarnations of Russia-hatred. They’re as blinded by hate as was Hitler with the Jews (sorry to demonstrate Godwin’s law, but the shoe fits).
Liz Truss, I think, even came right out and said nuclear war would be just fine as long as Russia was destroyed.
Are these people insane or evil, which is it? How do you distinguish between mental illness and diabolical evil? In some cases, I think there’s overlap. Or maybe the evil of pure hatred, when indulged without any restraint, eventually makes you stark raving bonkers.
“those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad” – Ancient Proverb
No takers then for the Baron’s theory that the ‘perceived’ weakness is deliberate, it’s to create the impression that the Russian forces are substandard, cannot fight a modern war, are still as big a crap as the ones of the communist era, or to put it differently, the rather unconvincing result of the special operation is but a bait to lure NATO in for the reasons Baron explained before.
What would even a full takeover of Ukraine do to force the Americans to give up on their endeavours to contain Russia, destroy her economy and eventually balkanise her? Absolutely FA, nothing, zilch.
What Putin needs is a head on confrontation with NATO- read the US because NATO is only a cover for the US Armed Forces – he doesn’t need to win such a conflict, but he cannot lose it either, and he very likely believes that in the era of nukes the NATO countries will not allow their own lands to be turned inhabitable, once the first few nuclear missiles get through the devastation will be be such that even the most deranged Russophobes will succumb to talking rather than living in an unliveable world.
Remember that (a) “the US only has a limited ability to destroy an incoming nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile” according to a March 2022 study the American Physical Society, and (b) every Russian nuclear warhead that is loaded onto an intercontinental-range ballistic missile that can reach the United States in approximately 30 minutes.
It’s a high risk strategy but Putin must have decided on it because Russia has only 2-3 year’s window before the Americans, thanks to the current $777.7bn Defence Budget, catch up with the Russians in the missile department, both on the defensive side (the S-range of systems) and the offensive side (hypersonic missiles, not following fixed trajectories, skimming surfaces).
It’s either the above, or the Russian Forces are indeed crap.
Most of that $777B goes to salaries, health care costs, and facility maintenance (overseas bases). Of the money that is spent on weapons, most of that is wasted. (What does an F-35 cost again? Dollar amounts in the case of the US MIC does not translate into military effectiveness.
While the action around Izyum and the Oskil River is riviting, it seems to my ignorant eyes that the radical development–representing a sea change from the SMO’s prior practice of leaving civilian infrastructure unscathed–is the lightning destruction of so many (“all”?) of the non-nuclear powerplants.
I wonder whether American and German high-ranking administration officials making arrogantly high-profile and unmolested PR stunt visits to Zelensky figured into this, or whether this was planned to happen along about now anyhow.
WOW! I feel for civilian Ukrainians . . .
You write, “Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.” Do you mean “towards the Kharkov region” rather than “towards Kherson?”
Typical local news stories always make me feel like my city (NY) is about to be overrun by traffic deaths and crime, but when I walk out the door, everything is fine. Same thing here.
Compared to Russia proper (6,612,074 sq mi) and overall military strength (2 million soldiers), the amount won-lost by any single offensive is and will be miniscule given the current forces on the ground.
The basics of this war are not going to change much unless either side (Russia/NATO) makes a massive commitment, which they won’t since both sides have nuclear weapons. Russia just flicked the switch off and on saying, you won your little offensive, now back off before we pull out the big guns.
I.e., it’s over, Russia won by making the land bridge to Crimea, why not go for a walk?
I have a question for you all.
How is it that the Russians were unaware of the buildup of Ukrainian forces?
It is simply impossible they did not know, unless there is treachery within the Russian ranks.
Or perhaps there was, in fact, no buildup and the whole Kharkov event is a media pys-op.
The second article here claims the battle of Prokhorovka was a large pys-op during WW2. Its an interesting read.
Of course they were aware. I was aware of buildup two days before the attack.
We can not know what happened, yet. Current reports of AFU grouping in Ugledar region suggest that the real battle is yet to come.
Pretty clear at this point, they knew, let them build up and attack. Some carpet bombing or even a nuke or two would have stopped the attack but that would be too brutal. Seriously, Russia can’t just destroy these guys, that would build resentments with a neighboring country that would last generations.
Would you bring out a gun if your neighbor bitched about some of your dog’s poop on their lawn?
Russians better realize that Ukraine is not some benevolent neigbour, but a smaller, frustrated guy that pulled out a knife and is trying to stab Russia. Ukraine doesn’t care that Russia is trying not to destroy her. That smaller guy sees that bigger neighbor is armed but believes that big neighbor doesn’t have the guts to use the weapon. After all “what will neighborhood think?” And so far, Russia proved to be gutless. If Russia doesn’t change its attitude many craws would feel emboldened to take a piece of Russia.
Larry,
You left out the assault on the airfield near Kiev and the defeat of the Russian airborne forces there. Also missing is “Rammstein” and the meeting there on the 8th, just before this victorious advance of, what 40 miles?
That may be fake news. Conflicting accounts.
Thanks for this Larry – great stuff
Nothing strategic. The Ukies surprised a command sector. The Russkies will recover by virtue of replacing Generals, eventually they’ll find a good one…
This armchair general thinks that this is just the beginning. NATO knows that it has to defeat Russia before winter (as usual). The real offensive is yet to come, probably from Ugledar.
John,
Do your self a favor and everyone else and read Larry’s piece on Operations.
And check out Andrei Martyanov ‘s last few videos and essays on his blog, Reminisce of the Future. And then head to The Shaker and read Andrei’s essay on Mobile Defence .
Make a little effort to educate yourself so you can stop asking asinine and beyond ignorant questions. Otherwise you will be considered as just another Concern Troll and completely ignored
Ciao
Slava Russia
L
Whoops! Fat fingers again!
It’s the Saker, not the Shaker!
I have to proof stuff due my stupid smart phone’s autocorrect.
Blessings
L
The Russians have destroyed 50% of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure in a little over 2 hours.
I guess the Russians want to make a point otherwise they would have taken down all of it.
Do we know it was the russians? i havent seen admission from MoD for example? plenty of buzz of that flavor out there including from Elensky.
your analysis, always trenchant, continues to improve even as it becomes more widespread and influential; keep up the good work
I think strategically, RUS shouldnt and mustnt make the mistake of reducing UKR into ruins like what the US did to Iraq. to do so would really create a Afghan 2.0 right on Russia’s borders. the end result would be even more foreign intervention in a broken country..
this is going to be hard to do because UKR is right on RUS’ borders and emotions run high- be it for cultural reasons, blood ties and/or the sheer proximity to RUS.
but this approach that doesnt fixate on “winning” – which concept flawed anyway because the players are not agreeing on the rules for there to be any ‘winner’ – is the appropriate one as it ensures that those who want to fight for the nazi cause will come up against the RUS bear and the objectives of denazification / demilitarisation be achieved.
so long as UKR is not 100% destroyed, there is a chance for peace to grow from within UKR: for the UKRs to wake up and realize that it is in fact their Slavic brothers that are trying to bring them back from this Western led addiction of nonsense…
perhaps this is the process that parties have to go through for the players to start agreeing on the rules- not to decide who wins or loses- but a framework for long lasting peace in Eastern EU.
the other way- that RUS flattens UKR and then start ‘occupying’ UKR- has a much higher chance of planting seeds of hatred… not much different from what US did to Afghanistan/Iraq, which ended in disaster.
only the merciful is truly brave… i hope RUS doesnt lose its heart….
Hi Larry I have 1 question. Do you know anything about Serco?
NO.
Just got this text from a work colleague – Tanya (circa 35 years old) is in Germany and her Parents are in Nova Krakhoka ( where the big hydroelectric plant is ). By way of background – Nova Krakhoka was liberated in late Feb. and the Mayor issued a rather pro-RF proclamation at the time…..
Full text of message…
….Just wanted to share some news. Tanya just talked to her parents and they think the Russians may be preparing to leave! That’s the good news. The bad news is that they will probably scorch Earth the areas they are leaving because they are so mad! Her parents are going to leave the city for the dacha (cottage) for safety.
Her dad says the Russians are breaking into buildings, looking for deserters, stealing valuables and taking stuff before leaving……
My guess is Dad is watching Kiev TeeVee rather than being an eyewitness. It’s completely at odds with everything else we are seeing by on the ground videos etc.
If this is simply Kiev whipping up hysteria it’s evil.
What do you mean “if”? Did you, even for a second, thought that Tanya and her father are for real?
Nova Kakhovka is in the Kherson region where long awaited offensive already failed (in blood). Why would Russians leave now?
More importantly, here is a list of things that never happened:
– Russian leaving scorched earth
– breaking into buildings
– looking for deserters
– stealing valuables
– and taking stuff
Rape related stuff used to be on the list too, but the lady that did that part got sacked for going too far with her fantasies (I’m not kidding, it was even reported in the Western news).
Here is a list of things that actually happened in Nova Kakhovka:
– shellings from AFU side with civilian casualties
Considering all the things done in previous eight and the half years by the Kiev regime, this is very low on the list of evil things.
This “SMO” is getting long in the tooth and stale.
I want Denis Pushilin to strike a deal with North Korea so as they …the NK government..can send 100K of their crack troops to cleanse Donetsk oblast of all ukronazis who continue to pummel the civilians living there.
In return the NK government would receive freighters of grain and other finished products Donetsk could supply.
This would allow present allied forces in Donetsk to press forward in other areas.
I’m of the same thinking; the North Koreans could well be formidable fighters. The Ukie’s AFU is propped up by West/NATO supplies and “volunteers”. Why fight single handed when you can bring your friends along? Dragging this out for too long has also risks for Russia, even while EUs economy is sinking. Maybe I’m wrong, but time to roll up one’s sleeves.
Yesterday on 1 of my Russian telegram channels there were reports of entire units of English speaking mercenaries with no ukies around . In Volchansk and Cossack Lopin . The writer believed they were American due to speech and a good number were black . Though followers thought they were NATO due to their equipment/ vehicles , I dont think anyone confirmed that when I asked. I was wondering if soldiers would be UN or FEMA or possibly antifa types but I really dont know much about these matters and am submitting for your assessment.
I would add that Russian and allied followers were angry to hear of this and another channel also reported with similar info.
Saker website under attack. Again.
i sense the interwebs are all spun up into a frenzy over the advance a couple days ago at kharkov and feel i must be missing something here?
if my goal is to reduce the resources of my opponent – do i necessarily have a preference if i have to go and pry them out of defenses or if they come to me on their own?
im not seeing the source of the frenzy somehow – whts the deal ?
The deal is there are human beings in that territory.
They were given Russian passport and rouble currency which now they can’t use.
They thought Russia would protect them but it could not and with that withdrawal are horrible consequences for them. Imagine if you had a young child or old immobile person in the middle of this. Surrounded by thousands of soldiers. Imagine being a women in those circumstances. War is terror.
Secondly, had the ukranians got further in and held positions it would have helped cut supply lines and push to Mariupol.
So it’s not a nothing burger. Not end of the world military. But these things are not consequence free. Particular as modern wars are disgracefully fought with civilians in the middle.
seems like a pretty sparsely populated area?
believe the russians have been taking it easy just for these reasons…
if i was there – and russoFriendly – i would be happy for the help and patient that it would work out…seems like they were waiting for years…
Frenzy is how Internet operates. Subject is irrelevant. Last year it was COVID. Last mont it was HIMARS. Last week it was Kherson, and this one it’s Kharkhov. Next week it will be Zaporozhie, or Donetsk, or maybe even Mariupol (again). Next month it will be the approach of winter.
yes the himars thing was interesting – forgot all about that!
i guess what strikes me as weird is that the frenzy has a direction (maybe not the best word) to it – and for some reason this is a kharkov dynamic is seen as unfavorable for russia.
im down with the “next big thing” aspect of it tho – i get that part. thanks
It is bad for Russia. Make no mistake about it. It’s first real lost battle in this conflict, and is still not over. Kiev regime went all-in. They lost a lot on other fronts, but the gamble in Kharkhov region payed off, and they will milk it as much as they can. Some teachers from captured teritory will be put to trial for teaching in Russian, and face 12 years in prison. Who knows what they are going to do to others “colaborators”.
But thing don’t end there, and they know that they need to push more and defeat Russia before winter. We will see how that turns out.
thanks, i guess thats my disconnect – i dont see a battle was lost – isnt mobile defense for to “shock absorber” uncovered areas?
of course the shock absorber has to actually absorb !
if you are telling me it doesnt/didnt then ok thats a defeat and something else entriely but i havent heard that yet – so far it sounds like the ukr “shock” is spent, out in the open and getting pounded. which sounds like a functional/functioning mobile defense to me…
– as far as executing civilians – seems to me thats blood on the hands of whoever does the executing. i think russ has been treading lightly.
What is indisputable is that Ukraine has been killing civilians in the Donbas for 8 years. And the world chose to ignore it.
The Russian withdrawal from Kharkov region and subsequent Ukrainian offensive is yet another example why this SMO was a strategic mistake for Russia! The Kremlin’s attempt to fight a war with minimal resources allowing the Ukrainian government to function and allowing the weapons flowing in from the US and NATO into Ukraine, resulted in the humiliation of having Ukrainian troops break through Russia’s thinly defended line in the Kharkov region
No doubt that the Russians will annihilate NATO/US/Ukrainian forces in the coming week, nevertheless it was a tactical and moral victory for the west!
Although I have a neutral view of this conflict, I am concerned that it may spiral out of control and will lead to nuclear war and the destruction of the western world! I don’t see a possible scenario where NATO/US/Ukraine can win this war, but they can prolong it as much as Russia allows them to. So in the interest in containing this war to Ukraine, Russia needs to wage a real war, and executes a lightning take-down of Ukraine in order to stop the west from further provocations and involvement thus saving us all from a nuclear war. I am reminded of Murphy’s Law: anything that can go wrong will go wrong, as long as Russia keeps prosecuting this SMO!!!
Im Pole myself and If that would be any other country in Europe which Russia “invades” i would be really against but Ukraine under their war propaganda and Government histiry politics conducting ethinc cleansing as their “tradition” dicates. – They started in 1943 with Volhynia massacre – they used the war as cover to conduct ethinc cleansing of Poles and Jews from wester ukraine commiting genocide on 200 000. I’m nerly certain that same things going on today. Ukraine wasn’t homogenic country – But today Government with obvious symolics and “problematic” interpretation of their history is normalizing this kind of practices as “historical necessity”
And yet all you hear from stupid, uninformed Americans is “Ukraine can’t possibly be Nazi, because looky here, their president is a Jew!”
Interestingly, while this conflict reflects an actually larger one: a civilizational conflict at global scale, this whole aspect seems constantly ignored. That is the conflagration of different paradigms, and different History and Culture.
Put simply Russians conduct war like Russians, thus their “unreadability” for the West and others.
If we look at the main historical/cultural layers (quick and limited list of course) having shaped the Russian paradigm, what do we have?
Ancient Slavic tribes, Varangians, Turco-Mongol hordes: all pointing to 2 main differences with Western societies: mobility and lower priority to holding territory definitely.
Ancient Slavic tribes were more or less semi-nomad, working fields for some time before moving elsewhere, in terms of warfare usually limited to raids to capture resources or slaves, and when moving to control land for a limited time.
As for Varangians (Vikings), not really anchored in the land, nor a territorial mindset: Northmen did manage to impose themselves and control large territories with inferior numbers, and they had no issue to move elsewhere if not worth the cost or the effort.
As for the nomadic Turco-Mongol tribes, a bit the same, Mongols often captured large territories with very small numbers, and being nomad controlling every inch and corner of the conquered lands was not really a big priority on their list. Tribute was fine, and some punitive raid for follow-up purposes if needed.
We could add also the experience of many generations subjected to the routine raids of Tatars: holding to your hamlet or getting killed or being enslaved was certainly a dilemma needed to be quickly solved.
Now let’s look at the West: mainly agrarian and sedentary cultures (Celts, Romans and romanized people, Germanic) constantly fighting to control and hold territories within a far smaller area than the territories which progressively formed current Russia.
So we end up with two completely different mindsets shaped by History and Culture leading to a difference approach to warfare. Holding territory at all cost on the long term versus holding territory when it’s worth to do so for a limited time.
Thus, from a western(-ized) perspective, whatever is the Russian strategy appears confusing, nonsensical, etc… in order to avoid confessing that those damn Russkies are unreadable.
Yet obviously holding territory at all costs is not the Russian way, was never – they left a Moscow on fire to the approaching Napoleon’s armies, so if Moscow was not considered worth the cost at one point, it’s most likely that the Russian approach was never to capture and hold UKR territories at all cost but to do so when, where and as long it makes sense and has value for them and serve their unreadable end goals and strategy.
In short, they keep up with good old traditions, and Putin is well-known to priorize culture and traditions contrary to the West. That also adds to the unreadability, for the West, History has ended, traditions are far-right stuff for low IQ science deniers and when it comes to Culture, the on-going “deculturation” of the West and its people will soon make it a thing of the past, so History… oops it has ended, sorry I forgot.
” That is the conflagration of different paradigms”
Your register is understandable but misguided.
The process is the transcendence of the linear – a paradigm being a linear self-constricting construct predicated on notions of the primacy of quantities, by the lateral, since lateral change is a constant whose variables include but are not resticted to trajectories and velocities.
The opponents are largely constrained within the linear as a function of their purpose.
The opponents are emulating the hopes of Cher – If I could turn back time.
” That is the conflagration of different paradigms”
Your register is understandable but misguided.
The process is the transcendence of the linear – a paradigm being a linear self-constricting construct predicated on notions of the primacy of quantities, by the lateral, since lateral change is a constant whose variables include but are not resticted to trajectories and velocities.
In Mr. Ehret’s misrepresentation this is held to be a conflict between “closed” and “open systems”, in obfuscation that a system is a “paradigm” – a linear self-constricting construct predicated on notions of the primacy of quantities, with the unintended consequence of correctly positing that the conflict also includes trajectories of linear conflict between/within “closed” and “closed” systems, ergo that “The United States of America” is simultaneously engaged in conflict with “The United States of America”.
The opponents are largely constrained within the linear as a function of their purpose.
The opponents are emulating the hopes of Cher – If I could turn back time.
But russian have uge thermobaric bomb like small nukes (7000kg)
It can be store 6 in the bomber tu 160
The russian need space for drop them
dreizinreport
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September 10, 2022
Julio, I have deleted the comment you copied from the dreizin report. I am aware of his childish, immature and ignorant comments. Can’t fix stupid so I will not try. Thank you for wanting to ensure I was aware of his stupid remarks.
I appreciated response about this article. Thanks
Thank you Larry, IMO the trap was unsprung last night.
Well written thank you!!
Not rushing has accomplished quite a bit outside of the war itself. “Davos” is reeling from the body shots. Putin stated a couple months ago that it was not certain that the leaders of the west would necessarily be the same people next year. For those of us threatened with being crushed under the Davos heel, it is a statement of hope tempered with a realization of how deeply that can go awry. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t.
As the smoke begins to clear, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Ukraine/NATO Kharkov offensive is more of a PR stunt than a meaningful military advance. Obviously, Russia saw it coming and did the smart thing by organizing a tactical retreat. In due time, Ukrainian side will experience some of the most severe repercussions of the entire war to date. Of course, none of that will be reported in the western press, just as the crushing of Ukraine’s Kherson offensive was not reported.
There’s nothing wrong with a tactical treat BUT you don’t leave behind intact sensitive military gear. There are various feeds showing intact captured Russian counter battery radar, Electronic Ware-fare arrays and not to mention intact tanks, artillery and all the ammo that goes along with it.
I was in Operation Knight Strike & Battle of Wadi al-Batin in Desert storm and even a simple grunt like me was taught how to destroy our Bradley fighting vehicles & sensitive gear in case of a hasty retreat.
I’m not buying for one minute that this was a organized retreat. If you don’t have time to destroy sensitive gear, its a rout! Lets call a spade a spade and give credit were credit is due. I’m still on Russia’s side but something about this SMO is very fishy, it was fishy from the very beginning. Now NATO has access to Russian counter battery radar and EW technology and God knows what else they left behind. For weeks armchair generals from Telegram were posting vids of massive Ukonazi armor & infantry assembling in the Chuhuiv area, so the RusMOD had to have seen this.
Without going into great detail, this looks to me to be part of the Great Reset that the World leaders want. Shortages of food,energy, ect and collapse of the current way of life. This SMO is Boo-cockie theater in my opinion. “You’ll own nothing and be happy!”
This aint trolling its another point of view that should be considered and instead of saying Russia in playing 3D Chess. Forced lock-downs, forced vaccinations, Q-codes, Chinese style social credit scores, ect coming to a Theater near you. Even Russia had this as my wife is Russian.
We will know soon what Russia’s plan was or is.
We don’t actually know anything about the provenance of any pictures purporting to show anything. I see videos purporting to be some convoy under attack and I realize, I’ve seen that same footage before weeks and even months ago.
This whole deal has convinced me that me know very little about what is really going on. It will take a couple of weeks for it all to come into focus.
For now it looks like the initiative with with Ukraine. If that continues, then the Russian effort has been hollow. If Russia regains the initiative, then this was Ukraines last gasp. 2 weeks before it’s knows either way. The rest is noise
My personal opinion is that NATO tried to force an escalation with the Kharkov counter-offensive. The russians seem to have cleverly dodged the blow and retreated with minor losses.
These last few days have shown us that we “know” much less than we think about what is actually happening.
– The combat role of Russian ground units is much less than we imagined. Most of the fighting is borne by LPR/DPR militias, Chechens and Wagner Group.
– Why aren’t the Russian ground combat forces in the fight on a large scale ?
– Does Russia want to win ? Perhaps we will no the answer to that in the next week or 2. If there is no large scale Russian response we have to consider the possibility that:
a) The Russian leadership does not have a real plan
b) The Russian Army is a hollow man
I suspect, this is not a series of battles – attack in the south, attack in the north, but one large battle, with the final shoe waiting to drop probably around Uglada (Sp?).
At this point it’s unclear, but it will be clear in a week or 2. Until then, we can only scratch our heads.
This is my first time on your site and I’m very impressed. I have read some of your work on other sites. One in particular is Reading Junkie run by Ian Cummer. His work is high quality and he’s also a firearms instructor.
Fellow Floridian, I’m on the Space Coast.
I’m on the opposite coast.
Again, if anyone could explain on which FACTS bases the “informations”, some people get not tired to circle around, that “Russia has not even employed a significant faction of his forces, fights with one arm tied behind back, only a tenth (!) if its troops fight in Ukraine” and so on. One hears that again & again. – On the contrary, recently Ritter claimed that Rrussia has already rotated 1 mill. personnel through the SMO (!?), who does him tell, and, btw, this would imho include that reserve personnel counting at least as much as the active russian army (“peacetime”) was called up, doesn’t it.
Some options here: those who brag about the russian strength & allmightyness have a) no idea and fantasizing about millionstrong russian forces like in times of Soviet mass mobilization army or b) they use argumentative trick to include – tacitly – employment of Russian reserve personnel – and assume that Ritter’s claim fits, the call-up of Reserves, conducted as undercover and concealed as possible, would be very considerable. If not sensational.
My conclusion: if I have the biggest difficulties to sympathize with the current UA regime (as awful and fascist its characterics are, if one dares to look closer), on the other side I don’t buy illusions of those who are more supportive of the Russian cause, who boast that a) Russia has endless amount of ammo b) has thrown the clock out of window, i. o. w. no “time plan” c) can easily field much bigger forces and so on, blabla.
Delusion seems to flourish on all sides. Of course, in the West also, if he truly believes, that Rrussia’s “demilitarization” and “decolonisation” on hand of forces of the United West were possible, in an outburst of quite hysteric euphoria & optimism after the events round Kharkov Kharkiv these days.
(“next year, Crimea is ours + would become NATO naval base”, while Putin s’heading for the Hague, etc.)
& people, for comparison better forget about (obsolete) WW 2 battles who had, by all differences technical development made in only 20 years, very much more in common with WW 1 than with WW 3 or its possible (End) battle.
That would inevitably be nuclear. Both sides stated in their military doctrines, as – at first glance – quite sound, reasonably and judiciously to read they are.
Yes, here they reserve the nuclear weapon for the case that the “existence of the state is at stake”. There they talk even more ambigously of “vital interests”.
Folks, that statements say nothing more or less than, on grounds of honor & principle, this nuclear weapon state is prepared to committ (murder and)suicide.
(If one is reminded of “seppuku”, he might be quite right)
The fear is, that a sect* of nuclear strategists really convinced themselves, that nuclear war is winnable. And therefore the risk is real, only question what own death toll their erroneous judgement understands as fitting for “victory”.
[* for that, I would be considerably more suspect of US. Remind: “Lieber/Press”, FA, 2006]
China, Russia, India, US have some of the largest militaries in the world.
If you doubt that there’s no convincing you. You could argue night is day and day is night
Got a clue something was fishy when I saw the russian column conspicuously filmed.
I constantly rant that russian staff are lamentables at comms … and this was no exception.
They show nothing , to the point it’s annoying ( compared to chechens showing off like children ), and suddenly they are conspicuous.
If I felt it without looking , NATO staff should have.
Either they are massive idiots , or they just don’t care about the meat.
Germany was provoked to get to the war in 1939 the same way as Russia is today, SAME WAY. Everything you know about WW2 is pure Hollywood and soviet garbage propaganda and not even 10% of it is truth. Watch this documentary, if you still have some brain left;
https://www.bitchute.com/video/mZpeJkSNjcA3/
Sorry, you do not get to invent history. Hitler’s plan to move east was not provoked by the west. Have you read Mein Kampf?