I was limited in what I could write last week because I was attending a week long training course in order to be certified as a Firearms Instructor who is authorized to train other instructors. I was in class or on a range for 11 hours a day, which is why I was unable to appear on the Judge’s podcast. A conversation with the Judge is always engaging and, I hope, educational. I’m back in my home office and the Judge graciously invited me for a virtual sit down. Note, he has a new intro and new sponsor. As a firearms instructor I can recommend the “head rest” safe that is sponsoring his show as a good system for transporting your hand gun (and no, I’m not getting paid to say so). Just an honest, informed opinion.
I want to underscore a point I raised with the Judge — no matter what “progress” Ukraine is able to achieve in its offensive, it will not change the tactical and strategic reality on the ground in Russian controlled territory. Ukraine is utterly dependent on NATO for its supply of tanks, ammunition, artillery, armored vehicles and combat air craft. Ukraine no longer has the capability to produce those items in Ukraine and NATO’s supplies of those weapon systems is being depleted with no immediate chance of replacing those items. That is an objective fact and no amount of spin will alter that reality for the foreseeable future.
Then there is the manpower issue. Ukraine does not have an unlimited supply of trained soldiers. Nope. A significant number of its most qualified soldiers, both officers and non-commissioned officers, are dead or suffering from disabling wounds that prevent them from returning to front line units. Even if the NATO countries scrounge up some tanks, artillery or planes, Ukraine does not have an ample number of trained personnel capable of operating those systems.
The reality of these deficits will become more apparent during the course of the next month and both Ukraine and NATO will be compelled to make some dangerous choices — i.e., surrender or commit NATO forces to the battle. While many leaders in the West continue to express the vain hope that Ukraine will find a way to continue to drag out this war because of Russian ineptitude, I think that is delusional. If any of you have other information or insights that can explain how a stalemate is a viable reality please share.
Europe is sliding rapidly into a recession and this is likely to dampen enthusiasm for pouring more money and materiel into Ukraine. If the NATO pipeline of military supplies dries up then Ukraine is finished. It is a simple matter of logistics.