A couple of recent videos released in the last couple of days tell a dire, unpleasant story for Ukraine’s attempt to fend off the Russian invasion aka “special military operation.” First up is a five minute interview of a captured Ukrainian tank captain who hails from Zhytomyr. Pay close attention when he describes the confused, chaotic command situation. Or, better put, the lack of coherent, organized commanders. Remember my earlier piece where I described Russia’s tactic of focusing missile strikes on command bunkers and headquarters? The confusion described by this captain is a natural result of that tactic. Kill the leaders and render the troops leaderless.
Another critical indicator revealed in this interview concerns the average age of these Ukrainian recruits–45-50 years old. That ain’t spring chicken territory. It is closer to a nursing home brigade–man your wheelchairs and walkers, we’re invading Russia.
I view videos like this with the following caveat–the man is a prisoner and may be “testifying” under the threat of some kind of punishment if he does not sing the right tune. That said, I found his comments rang true.
Another video shows the surrender of 18 Ukrainian troops that were holed up in someone’s cellar. These Ukrainians outnumbered the Russians but they were trapped hiding in a hole in the ground that had only one exit point. The Russian issuing the commands could use a refresher course on the Geneva Convention. That said, the soldiers were not executed on the spot and were not beaten. That is a step in the right direction.
There should be no doubt that many of the Ukrainian soldiers believed that they were fighting for their nation, their national pride. The last video I want to show you introduces you to one of those men. I think it is safe to say that he is not too pleased with the leadership of Zelensky and the other top brass running the Ukrainian ship of state aground.
I get the impression he is not too happy with the current situation. We have seen no videos like this from the Russian side. Is that because Russia has clamped down on social media? No. Unlike Ukraine, which has banned opposition media and political parties, Russia still allows dissent. Even if Russia was censoring social media, I do not discount the ability of enterprising Russians to smuggle dissident videos out to the rest of the world. The absence of such videos is another piece of evidence in fleshing out the picture of what is happening on the ground in Ukraine.
I’ve been saying since the beginning that UKR troops are way too old – and that is an indication that Ukrainians don’t want to fight for their country. When 9/11 happened, young Americans from all walks of life joined the military, knowing they’d likely be in combat; many hoping they would be. Where are the Ukrainian young men?
I’m 58 years old. I work out pretty much every day (boxing gym, swimming, weight lifting) – as I have my entire life – and am certain I could still pass any military *qualifying* test concerning physical performance, with flying colors. In other words, based on entry test performance, I would theoretically qualify to join any branch of service. However, there is no way I could continue through all of the training – That’s basic training + advanced infantry training – without incurring so many aches and pains to be rendered ineffective at the end. That training is not even the same physical and psychological stress as combat.
The poor diet, lack of sleep, constant fear, cold, wet, heat, carrying the weight of kit on your back and waist, running with all of that weight. No way. When I was 40 I could have probably couldn’t have gotten through training in “ok” shape, but not 100% and lasted a little longer in combat, but still, at that age the body (and mind) just doesn’t recover like it does when you’re 18 – 25. So maybe a couple months in action, tops, and I was an unusually fit and tough 40 year old, upper end of the spectrum. This isn’t about me, of course, just using my knowledge of myself and similar peers as an explanation for my opinion.
The preponderance of grey beards in the UKR military has puzzled me all along. It’s another variable that had me thinking UKR would have surrendered in the East by now. IMO, there is something we are missing. Are UKR grey beards an exceptionally – almost superhuman – tough lot? Bovine like slavic mentality (the stereotype)? Are they given drugs of some kind to keep them going? Are they trapped and just hunkered down, barely making it, in defensive positions until killed? A combination of the above? Truly a mystery to me that isn’t adding up.
I’ve appreciated lots of older ones in pictures too. I get lots of pictures on Telegram channels like Intel Slava Z. Drugs? Some of the videos clearly show buzzed ones — by the way in Viet Nam something like 240 million doses were used for longer missions and to combat fatigue. WW2 also. Ike demanded them to keep moral up. Obviously it can be over done but I see nothing wrong with it. I’d much rather know that airline pilots had access if they felt they needed it. Our society now is so in over kill mode about the entire subject. Alcohol is not allowed. It is a mistake these older men die if they are too tired to think clearly.
This came from Altantic Magazine: According to a report by the House Select Committee on Crime, the armed forces used 225 million tablets of stimulants between 1966 and 1969. In addition to those amphetamines, which were used to boost endurance on long missions, sedatives were prescribed to help relieve anxiety and prevent mental breakdowns.
No puritanical judgment from me on drugs to keep soldiers going and/or make them more effective. The right cocktail will do the job. But there is a point of diminishing returns on young men and it seems to me that drugs can only mask the issues faced by old men for a period of time. How long? I have no idea.
There is a trend lately – a Ukrainian military unit gets together in front of a camera and record a message to some higher ups (e.g. Zelenskyy himself) describing their (typically terrible) situation. Just yesterday I saw a very recent video (somewhere on Telegram) where soldiers complained that officers in their unit beat to death a soldier (for disobedience, I would guess). Not sure how frequent such extreme situation can be, probably pretty rare, but it is also a factor increasing obedience (to a point).
Possibly some more action by the Russian psyops artillery branch, with pamphlets describing how to make a video.
That was going on earlier with the spate of “we surrender” videos that were all to a script. The script was being provided in pamphlets delivered by shell, very traditional.
2/3’s of working age Ukrainians voted with their feet after the 2014 putsch and left the country.
One can guess that figure skews heavily towards the young side of “working age”
Also note of the 25 Brigades in Kiev’s military that were first rate NATO level combat ground forces only 8 or so remain intact. NATO commanders are sending in Territorials (aka Volksturm) into the front lines. Kiev’s Territorial Brigades are identified by triple digits ( ie the 111th ). These are the old men that you are seeing.
The closest I saw to “being unhappy” were a few musicians in the DPR forces mobilized from Donetsk conservatory (or something like that). This was a scene in “Mariupol. Russian city” – a recent documentary available on rutube (did not find a version with English subtitles, unfortunately). They were saying that they are extremely inexperienced, untrained but, thanks to their understanding commander, and some luck, still alive despite a few close calls. Again, many people do not distinguish between the Russian, on one hand, and LNR/DPR forces on the other hand. The difference is rather pronounced, however. Presumably, a lot of drafted/mobilized people in the LPR/DPR forces and, allegedly, only professional (contract) soldiers fighting in the Russian forces in Ukraine. In the videos, one can often guess who’s in what forces by the state of the equipment. Another clue is the video availability itself, there is much less video available from the Russian force (barring perhaps Chechens), than from the LPR/DPR.
«Again, many people do not distinguish between the Russian, on one hand, and LNR/DPR forces on the other hand.»
It’s complicated. The media has been talking about pro-Russian separatists, without stating that they’re actually Russians on Russian ground, but with Ukrainian citizenship. With Yugoslavia they were talking about Bosnian Serbs and Croatian Bosnians, but in the background you could hear the people themselves just talking about Turks & Chetnicks. The whole double ethnic language disappeared the day after the Dayton accords were signed. If people were a little better educated about how Ukraine even came about as a thing, and how the people on the territory got there and who they are, people would realize that loyalties are complicated and that forced Ukrainianization (with a star role for the SBU) was a really really bad idea from the get go. However, the MSM is trying to corral the sheep instead of giving some background information.
Not being able to read Russian, I have had to create analysis from open source 2nd hand information.
When Kiev Azov tried to extinguish Novo Russiya in 2014 and 2015, they got their arses handed back to them by the super underdogs of Donbass. Novo Russiya was pushed back to Donetsk and Lugansk. NATO trained azov death squads to light infantry standards, 10k per year from 2014+.
The reason why the Ukie and NATO lied and said it was Russians that invaded in 2014 is to explain the Kiev losses and defeats to Donbass. If underdog Donbass had defeated Kiev on their own, that would be really bad PR, especially with NATO backing Azov war criminals against Donbass non combatants.
So this disinfo continued on into 2022 and fooled a lot of us countering the disinfo war.
Possibly some more action by the Russian psyops artillery branch, with pamphlets describing how to make a video.
That was going on earlier with the spate of “we surrender” videos that were all to a script. The script was being provided in pamphlets delivered by shell, very traditional.
Any evidence for your claims? Do you know anything about Ukraine?
Weirdly aggressive my man.
Back in May, WaPo trying to paint it as good news for Ukraine in this story – https://archive.ph/RoKXI – during a couple of weeks there we saw at least three different units surrendering en masse with similar videos. I can’t remember which analyst linked it to some pamphlets that had been dropped, so feel free to google that yourself.
Ukrainian forces tried it early early when they thought they might actually cause some surrenders to occur https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-military-dropped-the-propaganda-projectiles-upon-the-invaders-positions/
DPR got in on the action around Mariupol https://www.newsweek.com/pro-russia-militiamen-fire-leaflets-over-ukraine-urging-troops-surrender-1710648
Western sources because using google which hides everything else, and I’m not going to work too hard to do your homework.
Thank you for your reply. I have been following events in Ukraine closely since 2014. I am therefore aware of the desperate situation of the people of this totally corrupt country. The distribution of leaflets calling for surrender is as old as war itself. However, I have never heard of anyone distributing leaflets with instructions on how to make a video of soldiers complaining about their leadership. So I’ll take that as your guess. Personally, I don’t think desperate Ukrainian soldiers need instructions on how to complain. Maybe I just don’t understand what you mean by “pamphlets describing how to make a “we surrender” videos”.
Mr. Johnson thanks for the great work. I have watched this debacle with some interest. Nazi’s being Nazi’s I understood what Ukraine did. What interests me is how Europe and the EU have stuck their head in the US foreign policy noose. Europe is going to destroy themselves over this. Which of course was part of Vicki Nuland’s plan. She also thought Russia would be destroyed of course. But Germany is going to be a freaking wasteland populated by SubSaharan Africans within 2 years. Of course, three years ago in Cologne it was not that far off. I served in the US Army in Trier, and am amazed at the stupidity of the EU leaders.
Greg,
“Surrender or die” psyops are as old as the hills. We shouldn’t be too surprised that they utilize the latest means of communication to deliver them. You may recall the Ukrainian practice of calling the loved ones of captured Russians using the prisoner’s phone. Pretty chilling stuff.
Here’s Hal,
“KING HENRY V
How yet resolves the governor of the town?
This is the latest parle we will admit;
Therefore to our best mercy give yourselves;
Or like to men proud of destruction
Defy us to our worst: for, as I am a soldier,
A name that in my thoughts becomes me best,
If I begin the battery once again,
I will not leave the half-achieved Harfleur
Till in her ashes she lie buried.
The gates of mercy shall be all shut up,
And the flesh’d soldier, rough and hard of heart,
In liberty of bloody hand shall range
With conscience wide as hell, mowing like grass
Your fresh-fair virgins and your flowering infants.
What is it then to me, if impious war,
Array’d in flames like to the prince of fiends,
Do, with his smirch’d complexion, all fell feats
Enlink’d to waste and desolation?
What is’t to me, when you yourselves are cause,
If your pure maidens fall into the hand
Of hot and forcing violation?
What rein can hold licentious wickedness
When down the hill he holds his fierce career?
We may as bootless spend our vain command
Upon the enraged soldiers in their spoil
As send precepts to the leviathan
To come ashore. Therefore, you men of Harfleur,
Take pity of your town and of your people,
Whiles yet my soldiers are in my command;
Whiles yet the cool and temperate wind of grace
O’erblows the filthy and contagious clouds
Of heady murder, spoil and villany.
If not, why, in a moment look to see
The blind and bloody soldier with foul hand
Defile the locks of your shrill-shrieking daughters;
Your fathers taken by the silver beards,
And their most reverend heads dash’d to the walls,
Your naked infants spitted upon pikes,
Whiles the mad mothers with their howls confused
Do break the clouds, as did the wives of Jewry
At Herod’s bloody-hunting slaughtermen.
What say you? will you yield, and this avoid,
Or, guilty in defence, be thus destroy’d?
GOVERNOR
Our expectation hath this day an end:
The Dauphin, whom of succors we entreated,
Returns us that his powers are yet not ready
To raise so great a siege. Therefore, great king,
We yield our town and lives to thy soft mercy.
Enter our gates; dispose of us and ours;
For we no longer are defensible.”
Thanks Steve, and agreed. I would be very surprised if there was *not* the provision of uh, let’s call them “guidelines and best practices for a successful surrender” as a matter of course during the hostilities.
I was originally pointing to the leaflet drops as a possible explanation for the rhyming nature of the recent complaint videos that velizhan mentioned above, and then my comment got duplicated and misplaced because I suck at internet 😉
Hank is a vicious thug, but of course sometimes a judicious bit of thuggery is what is needed to reduce the reapers final tally.
Aye, a thug. But I’m sure he had competition in that regard. A hypocrite to boot.
Pistol. Fortune is Bardolph’s foe, and frowns on him;
For he hath stolen a pax, and hanged must a’ be:
A damned death!
Let gallows gape for dog; let man go free
And let not hemp his wind-pipe suffocate:
But Exeter hath given the doom of death
For pax of little price.
Therefore, go speak: the duke will hear thy voice:
And let not Bardolph’s vital thread be cut
With edge of penny cord and vile reproach:
Speak, captain, for his life, and I will thee requite…………
…
…
Henry V. What men have you lost, Fluellen?
Fluellen. The perdition of th’ athversary hath been very
great, reasonable great: marry, for my part, I
think the duke hath lost never a man, but one that 1565
is like to be executed for robbing a church, one
Bardolph, if your majesty know the man: his face is
all bubukles, and whelks, and knobs, and flames o’
fire: and his lips blows at his nose, and it is like
a coal of fire, sometimes plue and sometimes red; 1570
but his nose is executed and his fire’s out.
Henry V. We would have all such offenders so cut off: and we
give express charge, that in our marches through the
country, there be nothing compelled from the
villages, nothing taken but paid for, none of the 1575
French upbraided or abused in disdainful language;
for when lenity and cruelty play for a kingdom, the
gentler gamester is the soonest winner.
Very appropriate to the moment.
Speaking of Henry V and “communications guidelines”:
A Parody of Product-Placement Propaganda
(with apologies to William Shakespeare’s Henry V)
CHORUS:
Wanted: a hack for hire who would descend
The darkest depths of Disbelief’s suspension.
TVs for a stage, dunces to act,
And morons to consume the threadbare theme.
Then should the Precious Peacock, him or her,
Put on the bomber jacket while the troops,
Like gladiators chained, prepare to fight
And for the mob’s enjoyment, die. But wait!
We promise that with each new show you’ll learn,
Again, Brave Audience, what we have taught:
That nothing real concerns you, so relax
And let us your attention span beguile.
Don’t touch that dial (or digital remote)!
We’ll be right back with further plots and schemes
Designed to glue your eyes and ears and minds
To images that flicker and move on
To be replaced with advertisements glib
Exhorting you to buy expensive stuff
Of which you’ve neither need nor can afford
But must from your exhausted credit borrow.
Brave Audience, if we have done our jobs
Your courage, once projected on our work,
Will serve, we trust, to fill in all the blanks
Which otherwise might mar, through glaring gaps,
The inconsistent logic of this tale.
Blink, when we show you dragons belching flames
And feel your skin begin to warm, then cringe.
Your thoughts, suppressed, have nothing they need do
At Warp Speed, through black holes, you’ll conquer time.
Whole galaxies will fly apart, then merge
Into an episode on Friday night
Of Fragrant Perspiration: Season Six.
When nothing matters anyway, why not?
So sit and stare, and we’ll supply, the rot.
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright © 2019
With respect and in the interest of not seeing this worthy site lapse into fanboyhood in the comment section, see the analysis offered here recently by a former high ranking officer in limey military intelligence:
https://intellinews.com/don-why-is-russia-s-progress-in-the-ukraine-campaign-so-slow-251117/
The truth will set you free, as Scott Ritter says, not fanboy fantasy. It’s one thing to see through the lies of the western MSM or the neocon ISW, or the Lithuanian Pretzel at SST now turcopolier. It’s another thing to fall for your own wishful thinking.
Thanks for the Gav Don article. It is pretty accurate, I think. The Russians are patient and persistent, taking care to save civilians. The Ukrainians are very well dug in in the Donbass after 8 years. He did not mention the Russian flamethrowers. Also, I think the Russians will make better progress after they encircle the enemy and work them over.
My concern is the introduction of fighter jets eventually by NATO. Russians have been shooting down a lot of HIMARS rockets. Escalation by NATO is a big problem. Will the US fight to extinction in Ukraine after the debacle in Afghanistan and ignore all of the deadly crises in the western hemisphere?
Pito,
The narrative of the war has all been based on a statement made by DCIA Bill Burns who, taking his cue from a rabid nationalist pundit on Russian TV, told us that Russia would take Kiev in 3 days. It seems the peanut gallery still believes that to have been the Russian plan, so of course anything less has since been regarded as abject failure.
In the video showing the Ukrainian prisoners, Larry said that a Russian was giving the commands. Were these Russian POWS or DPR/LPR forces? I have always had difficulty distinguishing the uniforms. You can briefly see a uniform at around 32 seconds.
I have also heard Scott Ritter mention that Russian soldiers do not carry cell phones. Does anyone know whether that is true? (The video also appears to be shot using a phone.)
Russia’s army proper does not carry mobile phones into combat. See here for an example of a story about it https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2020/05/no-more-mobile-devices-russian-soldiers
Roughly, as I understand it, from 2018 through 2020 there were various moves in the duma and army leadership to reduce the devices carried by soldiers to control intel leaks. If I recall correctly, apart from intel leaks, there was also some drama in an earlier conflict when a dodgy mobile app was used to get targeting coordinates for unfriendly artillery.
Net result is that when we get footage from phones on the allied side, it tends to be from DPR/LPR/Chechens/Wagner/etc, not the army per se. Exception is for the official prop films.
Given that Zelensky has a big target on his head, if I were him, I’d make good use of my Russian language skills and get my butt to Moscow. it’s probably the safest place in the world for him.
So, immediately after Lavrov announces that a goal now of Russia’s war effort is to overthrow or “change” the regime in Kiev, you take the claims of the likes of a richboy internet hook-up coach that the US is planning to kill Zelenskii at face value?
No further comment.
Pita, You don’t like delicious irony?
Point taken. I plead stress, insomnia, weary old age etc. And the current level of insight on display is very discouraging.
So you believe Scott Ritter’s labeling of Gonzalo Lira as an internet coach, to be sufficient basis for fundamental analysis in a war?
No further comment.
Pito,
The threat to Zelensky’s life – often stated – is from the Galician extremist groups.
Everyone in Ukraine just got a 25% pay cut.
Since almost everything is imported at this point, this is likely to cause social unrest and further demoralize the army.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ukraines-central-bank-devalues-hryvnia-by-25-against-us-dollar-2022-07-21/
Tom,
Add to that the recent legislation to remove all labor protections for 70% of the workforce. When it comes to the neoliberal invasion it didn’t steal in the back door it kicked in the one at the front….
No matter which way this war goes the Ukrainians are screwed.
Been reading this site for a while by now, and I thank the host, and the contributors for a very interesting universe now open to me.
I’ve decided to post, only because recruiting 40-60 on a front line military it’s AGAINST the nature of our body.
In that age group, it’s good enough that we can get out of bed with just few swearing words, but sleeping in the tranches, and running around under fire, while caring heavy equipment, seriously, (Z)elisky should try it.
A good action should start by knowing your limits.
These light infantry seem to be carrying 20 pounds or less. Hunting weight.
What a stark contrast to the Russian troops whom are proper military age and are rotated out for R&R. Additionally Russia is using only 8-10 % of their army. Sooner or later there will be a complete collapse and Russia will have its way right to Dnieper river.
“I get the impression he is not too happy with the current situation. We have seen no videos like this from the Russian side. Is that because Russia has clamped down on social media? No. ”
Of course there are videos from the Russian side, of dissent. Here’s one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zog7R83hLRg
Donbass is part of Ukraine, that is why Ukraine passports even work there. Ukraine Donbass is mobilizing Ukrainians and kiev Ukraine is mobilizing Ukrainians.
This isn’t dissent from Russians, it is just a Ukrainian civil war. People arguing about Mexico vs America here.
Those are videos of the Ukrainian side. Just happens to be more than 1 Ukrainian side.
Tom,
Add to that the recent legislation to remove all labor protections for 70% of the workforce. When it comes to the neoliberal invasion it didn’t steal in the back door it kicked in the one at the front….
No matter which way this war goes the Ukrainians are screwed.
Most of the grumbling I’ve seen has been from the LPR and DPR units with complaints about being poorly equipped. The one in the link is a wife attempting to keep her man out of the fight. Totally understandable. Interesting that the “recruiters” accept her pleas, which is a bit counter narrative and the opposite of what I’ve seen from the Ukrainian side.