A favorite past time of arm chair generals is to look to history to find an explanation that puts a current battle into context. That is being done with the battle underway in Bakhmut. My belief is simple — history is irrelevant to what is going on in Bakhmut. The battle in Bakhmut will be decided by the country that has the best logistics, the most troops, the most fire power and the best leaders.
The Battle of Stalingrad is cited by retired U.S. Army Lt. Colonel Daniel Davis in his article, 1943 Stalingrad vs. 2023 Bakhmut: A Decisive Battle That Decides the Ukraine War? Here are the salient points from Col. Davis’ piece:
Like the city of Stalingrad during World War II, the town of Bakhmut is of moderate tactical significance, as it commands a number of important road junctions in the Donbas and its capture would put other Ukrainian positions at greater risk. Also like Stalingrad, the two sides have placed a great deal of emotional importance to holding or taking the city. The side that emerges from this fight victorious may well also set the stage for winning the war. . . .
Not to be deterred, in early February Prigozhin oddly challenged Zelensky to an aerial duel to settle matters. Meanwhile, on the battlefield both Zelensky’s troops and Prigozhin’s forces continued to pour in massive amounts of troops and reinforcements, each reportedly suffering egregious numbers of casualties. After appearing to be considering withdrawing from Bakhmut on March 3, Prigozhin that same day made a video publicly calling for Zelensky to withdraw. On Monday, Zelensky made his reply, saying he and his senior generals vowed “not to retreat” and in fact to further reinforce his defenders. . . .
It could be that like Germany in October 1942 came tantalizingly close to achieving their tactical objectives of reaching the Volga River – but failed – the months’ long Russian attack that has Prigozhin’s men literally a few kilometers from completing the ring surrounding Bakhmut (and sealing the fate of the 10,000 Ukrainian defenders), could likewise fail. If that happens, if Ukraine hangs on to the city, they could win a major tactical and psychological victory.
Not intending any disrespect to Col. Davis, but this is nonsense. For starters, the military units fighting under the command of the Russian General Staff are engaged along a 1000 mile front. The Russians are not just fighting in Bakhmut. It is Ukraine and the West that are touting Bakhmut as the decisive battle. But here is the reality — it is the Wagner Group that is carrying the weight of the battle in Bakhmut while Russia has at least 600,000 troops that it has not yet committed to the various fights along that 1000 mile front. Part of the reason that the West is fixated on Bakhmut is because the Wagner Group’s founder, Evgeny Prigozhin, is one hell of a troll. He is a one man information operation and has proven to be a savvy manipulator of the media.
The situation on the ground is pretty straightforward. The Wagner Group is advancing on all fronts around Bakhmut and has fire control of key roads the Ukrainians need for resupply. Warming temperatures are turning the fields to the west of Bakhmut into mud, making vehicle access or egress very difficult for Ukrainian forces. The Wagner Group, with massive support from the Russian Army’s logistics command, has a decided advantage in artillery, shells, rockets, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, medical support, food, electronic warfare and man power.
Colonel Davis also is wrong about the level of casualties Ukraine is inflicting on the Russians. It is a simple math problem — Russia is firing at least 5 times the volume of artillery than Ukraine and Ukrainian forces hunkered down in Bakhmut. We do not live in a magic world where all shells fired by Ukraine cause casualties while Russian shells are ineffective. At a minimum, Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut are suffering at least five times the casualties relative to those of the Wagner Group. And yes, the fighters of the Wagner Group are being killed and wounded.
Here is a detailed summary of events in Bakhmut in the last 24 hours:
🔹#Bakhmut Sector Northwest:
▪️ Wagner PMC assault squads broke through (https://t.me/milchronicles/1655) Ukrainian defences across fields south of Orekhovo-Vasilyevka after their first unsuccessful attempt to attack AFU positions near the village.
▪️ As Military Chronicles sources @milchronicles suggest, the settlement itself consists of four well-fortified strongholds. At the moment, a confident control over two has been established, the cleanup is underway on the third and fourth. Near the village cemetery, 30 people from the 30th Mechanized Brigade and 116th Territorial Defence Brigade of the AFU Have been killed.
▪️ The AFU is trying unsuccessfully to retake the lost territories. Ukrainian formations are suffering losses due to difficulties in evacuating the wounded, a lack of reconnaissance and logistics support and insufficient fire support. Mortar and artillery crews have been restricted in their consumption of ammunition.
➖ Meanwhile, several attacks have already been carried out by the 1st Special Forces unit of the 71st Jager Brigade, supported by a tank platoon of the AFU’s 4th Tank Brigade. As a result of the battles, the Wagnerians destroyed two tanks, and the 71st Jager Brigade alone lost about 120 men killed and wounded in two days.
▪️ The Ukrainian formations have now retreated to the #Golubovka area, with the seriously wounded being transferred to #Slavyansk and #Liman. From #Minkovka, #Golubovka and #Privolye, the AFU are shelling the Wagnerian offensive areas with artillery and mortars.
▪️ Russian units have advanced slightly in the Budenov district south of #Bakhmut centre, improving their tactical position and levelling the front line.
🔹#Bakhmut Sector Southwest:
▪️ Wagner PMC assault squads have approached close to the highway to #Konstantinovka. The attack on the AFU positions is taking place on the #Konstantinovka- #Krasnoye and #Krasnoye – #Bakhmut sections of the road. A mortar battery has been moved from #Slavyansk to #Konstantinovka to support the AFU.
📌 Advancement in the northwest along the #Slavyansk route allows the buffer zone near #Bakhmut to expand and secure the flanks against counterstrikes by the AFU. In the #Slavyansk – #Kramatorsk agglomeration are are large reserves accumulated, which under certain circumstances can be 👉 thrown into battle (https://t.me/sitreports/5519) to restrain Russian fighters.
In addition, movement in this direction creates the prospect of a further offensive in two directions. To encircle the #Seversk agglomeration, which, together with the 👉 activation (https://t.me/sitreports/5684) of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division in the #Serebryanskoye forestry area, is very logical, as well as to bypass the large fortified area in Chasov Yar.
The town is situated on the dominant heights relative to the areas from which the Wagnerians are now advancing. A frontal attack is extremely dangerous because of the terrain, and an assault on Chasov Yar would be like an assault on #Ugledar from the lowlands.
The simultaneous advance to the north with successes in the south of #Bakhmut and southwest of the city pins the AFU formations in one area, which in the face of a shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian artillerymen allows us to develop success.
Bakhmut may be a charnel house, but it is small potatoes compared to the horrific losses that were inflicted on the military forces in Stalingrad and Verdun. Frankly, I think it is intellectual laziness to compare those titanic battles to the fighting underway in Bakhmut. The United States and Europe, along with Ukraine, remain fixated on relentlessly pushing propaganda that portrays the Russian military as incompetent and ineffective.
But Russia is not preoccupied with Bakhmut. Bakhmut is just one component of a broader military strategy and plan. Russia’s defense industry is running full tilt and is producing the artillery shells, tanks, missiles and planes that Russia requires to destroy the Ukrainian military. Ukraine, even with Western support, has no answer for this.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Prigozhin is the only person on the Russian side who knows how to use the media, but just for information purposes, but as a weapon. This is basic practice in the rest of the world but not to the Putin government, most of whom seem to be stuck mentally in the media space of the 1950s. Prigozhin is so unlike them in every way that it isn’t a great surprise that they’d be worried about, and try to undermine, him.
Prigozhin has never served a day in the military, he is a businessman. He has no military training, never mind staff officer or general staff experience. The Wagner units are led by experienced officers, who act as a combined force alongside Russian Army artillery, reconnaissance, rocket forces and airpower.
Prigozhin is no threat to the regular Russian forces or command, and he is certainly no threat to Russian political leadership. Up until he publicised himself in this war, Western trolls called him Putins chef, now you want to call him a threat to Putin and the Russian General Staff!
What you claim is silly and similar to saying that Patton was a threat to FDR and Ike, ridiculous stuff.
martin mkultra7 says
Right/Wrong,edzachary correct.Priggy is doing what he is told.The sledgehammer,running for president of Ukraine,LOL,LOL.Complaining about being short of weapons and ammo,then suddenly launching several attacks on Bahkmut.THe laughter in the Kremlin is deafening every time he makes a proclamation that the western presstitutes cannot get enough of.His troops truly love him,he makes them laugh too.
Cato the Uncensored says
Sure, Patton’s “accident” was an accident.
LoL! Good one! The Rabid Dog had to be put down.
harry annis says
He serve 12 years in prison to release in 1990. Then sold hot dogs. Got a Kremlin catering contract. Finally took over WAGNER. He thinks outside the box.
Blablabla, and your point?
You sound like the TheDuran London “oricle”, some time ago constantly trashing Prigozhin. Always in a personal sense.
I commented often for him to get off it, seemed like a personal dislike for Prigozhin. Lately looks like it worked.
So what Prigozhin is not a trained military man, looks like somehow he has positioned himself to be heard in this cat fight. And all the best for it, seems to me he puts his money and his energy where his mouth is, unlike the blowhards in the USA who sit on their asses while the country rapidly slips into chaos. Who in the USA has the balls to stand up and shout these criminal scum down in a public forum?
Seems Prigozhin has a knack for PR, so all power to him. Russia could use a big dosis of that in order for the rest of the world to wake up to the fact that the makings of this conflict lies squarely in Washington DC and all the incessant hype and bullshit that the Americans are the undisputed world champions of, ain’t gonna change the outcome.
Putin is a Sun Tzu chess master and the Rx military seems to finally have copped their mojo.
Ukraine s going down dude, and the USA criminal Mafia and their UK/EU lapdogs are going to be licking their wounds for quite a while in the wake of it all.
And thank the gods for that.
The rest of the worldknows this. Europe and the USA don’t. They are saturated in propaganda 24/7. It is literally the only thing they excel at in the era. I don’t think there is anything positive in this. ThecUSA is losing its standing in the world at a rapid rate. No amount of PR is going to change that.
Dan Farrand says
Perhaps the real purpose of Wagner is to increase pressure on the Russian Army to carry out reforms they have resisted for years. As Wagner takes on the image of military success, competence and dash, the regular Russian Army finds it harder to hide lack of energy, much less outright failure (Ugledar ?). Perhaps the Russian Army really was choking off ammo supplies to Wagner, now Pregozhin’s public statements has made that a high risk exercise. Perhaps the Russia Army really was be casual about defending Wagners flanks. Now Pregozhins public statements makes that high risk. Both of these tactics – witholding supplies, and leaving Wagner exposed to attack are traditional tactics of large military organizations who have become more expert at intrigue and garrison life. But by a simple chat on telegram, the Russian people are watching and any difficulties for Wagner will be hard for the Russian Army to explain away or ignore.
Perhaps all wishful thinking on my part.
Prigozhin is often identified as the owner of Wagner. We can be sure that he is the chief, public face of Wagner. But otherwise we have no idea what is role is.
Against white supremacy says
Very interesting! If one considers what happened in Mariupol last year and Bakhmut now… What would the situation would be without Wagner and the Chechens????
Respect to you!
he is just a troll , if you followed other sites like Moa , Smoothie and Saker you in the past you will see his posts spamming his nonsense like this over and over and over
C’est surtout une menace pour zelinsky, c’est un fin stratège qui sait parfaitement utiliser les médias
1- il met en place son hachoir a viande qui fonctionne bien, peu de perte et pas mal de confort pour ses hommes
2 – biden lui demande de se retirer de Bakhmut
3 – Prigozhin risque de ne plus avoir assez de matiere pour son hachoir a viande
4 – Prigozhinfait savoir dans les medias qu’il n’a plus de munitions
5 – zelinsky y croit et envoie des troupes dans le hachoir en pensant mettre une raclée aux russes
6 – le hachoir à viande est bien approvisionné
*les médias ne remarquent pas que Prigozhin fait tirer toujours autant de munitions, c’est un homme d’affaires qui se fait livrer gratuitement sa matière premiere
I think it’s very crafty to have put Prigozhin in as spokesman for Wagner group. He’s doing exactly that thing they want him to do!
If you are thinking that Prigozhin is doing his side of the media campaign alone without any active coordination of those – as you put it – frozen in the 50’s, then you could be totally wrong. Only time will tell how masterfully the Russian chess players are transforming the global order. Ukraine situation is just a small part of the whole picture. For instance, since we heard the news of Iran-KSA rapprochement with Chinese mediation, two of USA’s large banks suddenly went kaput. It seems the Saudi’s knew this beforehand. Real experts fear a domino effect is about to happen. Millions are pouring into the streets of Paris, London and other European cities, at this moment.
Eddy Francis says
Not sure there’s millions on the street in London. I wish there was !
k. talaat says
Just like FTX was brought down, all these Soros funded fronts for social engineering are being brought down.
The Fed has sufficient Cash and assets at hand for any emergency.
If we are going to study geopolitics it makes perfect sense to look at the money, after all it is a vector influencing the behavior of the players.
Thanks to Powell, the US has been decoupled from the City of London. The City of London does not set the cost of owning a US Dollar anymore, for the first time in history, the US sets the cost of its money. Now when Europe catches a cold the US consumer doesn’t have to pick up the tab. There will be pain in the US and slaughter in Europe, we are civilians in the financial war between the WEF one CDCB and the US Commercial Banks refusing extinction.
Top Gum says
What cash? All they have is vast amounts of debt, created from nothing but thin air. The US has been bankrupt for many years now. All they do is print paper money out of nothing. That ponzi is coming to an end now. Paper money was always a ponzi scheme.
Central banks all over the world are stocking up on the only one and **real currency** in record speed now.
John Noble says
Great rely the US has printed itself into the proverbial.
Top Gum says
The US has been abusing their monetary system to create wealth with, out “of thin air” created, money (debt). The US-Dollar is mostly backed by nothing but an empty promise. Until 1971 it was backed by gold, but that was a lie … so to speak an empty “promise” too. US backs the Dollar with the military, attacking every country that challenges the dollar-dominance.
The dollar going down will not change much for the US (although the US is today an net-importer and relies on others to provide for them) but it will be a greater headache to all the non-US debt holders. Holding money was/is never a good idea. Money has always been debt and never was a store of wealth.
The US is too far in debt. As countries reject the dollar the US will suffer inflation. High interest rates counter this. The London and EU International bankers will look east to fight again for global control. Remember JPM controls the Democrats, Rockefeller the Republicans, and the Rothchilds control both.
sadly, “millions pouring into the streets of paris, london and other european cities” is a gross exagerration. in actual fact, it`s more like a few thousand here, a few thousand there: a still relatively meagre mobilisation that is furthermore long overdue.
in view of what`s at stake for the people of europe, many would in fact claim that we`re still very much asleep at the wheel.
…according to the news we are seeing here in Iran there are over a million workers on strike across France. CGT (workers’ union) claimed 1.3 million people joined the strike. The government says around 350 thousand. I bet CGT is telling the truth. Perhaps the government is not counting the family members of the workers, for some reasons. That’s only in France, what about across the EU? Of course there’s a lot more need to be done.
Hundreds of thousands of French people are marching in the streets? True, but only because they don’t want to work until 64 years old! Nothing to do with geopolitics !!!
Dominique Bassal says
I agree. Giving Prigozhin this much importance is falling into western histrionism. In this worldview, people who shout the most are the most important. And in the dying West, this is really how it works. But the rest of the planet – 80 + % of the population – begs to differ, and an era of intelligent, responsible leaders is dawning everywhere. Let Macron, the disco Finnish, Baerbock and all the other perverts do their last sick show…
Bazza McKenzie says
The communication which matters to Russia is inside Russia and in the non-Western world.
It has become commonplace in the West to criticize a “failure” of Russian communication based on what circulates in the West and in media controlled by Western states and their media dogsbodies. Very short sighted.
Don Lamb says
Allan Mountain says
Yes Bazza. Unlike the arrogant buffoons in America and NATO, Russia has actually learned something from a great old wise American i.e. Mark Twain.
The Russians will continue to avoid behaving like the American game show actor politicians as they will refuse to stoop to trying to beat America and the West at the clown media PR propaganda “who can tell the biggest bull stories to the cameras”.
Russians are only interested in results on the ground speaking for themselves – they know to “Never argue with stupid people as they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience”.
Russians are prosecuting the war with their historic finesse getting better with every passing day and always learning.
Prigozhin, Putin’s comedian chef and major contributing funder of Wagner, is having a wonderful time teasing Zelensky and Ukraine military creating entertainment for the world to keep everyone distracted with the side show while Wagner soldiers under superb leadership are clearing the Nazis from Bakhmut.
Elsewhere across the long front the Russians are quietly cleaning up slowly but surely; and at sometime in the future, once they have annihilated AFU and Zelensky has been dealt with by Ukraine people according to his treachery, and Ukraine is left with no other option than to hoist the white flag high in unconditional surrender, then the Russians will continue to remain silent unlike the bragging blowhards in the West and they will let the world judge who the masters in this war are – they will simply let the facts speak much louder than any boasting words and then they will set terms of surrender, round up all the Nazi war criminals and hopefully execute the lot of them.
Then it gets really dangerous as the diabolically ugly slob Victoria Nuland and her gang tear out their hair in frantic desperation and will no doubt do all they can to step up and prove to the world once and for all how dementedly crazy they are in their final attempt to let loose with the nukes.
Perhaps then we might see a few good American generals step in and arrest Nuland et al and deal with them according to their treachery and treason. Sadly Biden will no doubt get a pass given he cannot be held responsible due to his state of deranged dementia – that will be an easy case to argue in any courtroom.
OK I like to dream good dreams. The last part may never happen but you can bet on Russia prosecuting the war to an unconditional Ukraine surrender – that will happen.
It is not a job of General Staff to satisfy fan boys. For that there is telegram channels and Prigozhin. Not that you can outcompete western BS anyway – I don’t think it would fly with non western public.
I agree with parts of what you said, “Prigozhin is the only person on the Russian side who knows how to use the media…” … but I would like to offer a photo negative opinion, if I may:
The Wagner PMC is the face of the Russian military in the Global South. And right now all of the countries in Africa (think Mali & Burkina Faso, where the French are being asked to leave) are watching the Wagner PMC kick the living —– out of everything that the US, NATO and the West has thrown against it. What do you think those African leaders are now thinking? Answer: “We want those guys here!!! The Wagner PMC are the “Biggest Bad _sses” out there!”
I would give Putin, Lavrov and Zakharova a little more credit. They can see what we see and are letting Prigozhin do what he is doing for a reason. They are playing the long game and are playing in the international arena. Wagner PMC was all that Macron talked about when he last visited Africa…
If you were an African leader (or other Global South leader) are you going to invite the losers of the “Battle of Bakhmut” to your country or the winners?
Enlighting comment! My guess is that you have read a lot about the real history of WW2. Every anonymous soldier or famous commander who defeated the Nazis deserve respect. Those who still remember all this deserve respect! Respect to you!
Freedom of speech is supposed to allow us to AGREE with your comment. I hope I can do that on this website.
Against white supremacy says
Very sharp comment! Obviously you have read alternative sources different from the official narrative of WW2. Respect for everyone who remembers who saved US from the white supremacists!!!
the blame-e says
To say that most of the Russian media “seem to be stuck mentally in the media space of the 1950s” is about as ignorant as it gets.
You sound like the mainstream media during the 1961 JFK trip to Vienna. The United States had the youngest, the most glamourous, the most educated, the most sophisticated president and first lady in office ever with JFK and Jacqueline Kenndy. And all the US media could do was sneer at Nikita Khrushchev and his wife. Especially his wife. Describing the first lady of Russia as nothing more than a wide-hipped, matronly, woman just off the potato fields of some Russian Dacha.
It’s the 21ST Century. The Russians have a top-flight diplomatic corps. Maria Zakharova is a killer. This is the kind of ignorance that’s going to get us all killed. Show a little respect, even if it is just for the Devil. Especially since it’s the Devil.
I have a different perspective. The RF leaders are very smart–they are letting the west spew agitprop that will be refuted in the end. They don’t care about the views of the west, they are showing the east and south that they aren’t pathological liars like the west. Prigozhin is likely sowing social media confusion to keep the USG thinking in the same rut–Russia is stupid and they are fighting each other.
Putin has respect for Trump. They are both realists. Putin is doing the US people a favor in exposing how corrupt our country has become.
this is the worst childish post by this indian troll , he kept doing this in MOA , Saker’s and Matrynov’s site and got banned there..
His main spam is ‘putin weak’ nonsense
and he kept grasping the straw by propping new ‘this one is better russian’ nonsense
today it is prigozhin
David March says
Anyone who says that Stalingrad was a moderate tactical significance has not looked at a map of Russia in the second world war. As someone who wrote a three piece series for World at War Magazine on the battle, I have some knowledge on the battle.
I will push back on the ‘intellectual laziness’ comparison though. As a student and writer of history its good to look at comparisons and understand campaigns. Bakhmut does remind me of the Verdun campaign and as such people should draw parallels and its good for normies to gain understanding of that battle by looking at historical references.
Artemiovsk is tactically very different from Verdun. Verdun was not an urban battle but just tree fortifications on a hilltop line (Douaumont-Vaux-Moulainville) that changed hand several times during a 10 month battle… plus the scale of it suffer no comparison as Larry pointed it out ; It was fucking WW1 with millions shell fired each week , gases attack , human waves , phosphorus ammo everywhere …
Artemiovsk is tactically more like a Diên Biên Phu in the making or a Khe-san without an air cover for the US.
Phil Garber says
I would go further back in time and compare Bakhmut to Vicksburg.
An excellent comment. People with an interest in military history tend to frame any conflict in those terms. I think it is useful to look to history for analogues and parallels but even more important for the differences. No, Bakhmut is NOT Verdun. It is not Stalingrad. Nor is the SMO the American Civil War (although I and some others have noted similarities in our writing). What is important are the differences! The US and NATO’s military strategies fail to the extent that they look backwards, first to WWII, and then to the Gulf Wars. History becomes a way of justifying assumptions. Every major war is different to the extent that social and political contexts differ — and most importantly — technology. Some people like to talk about John Boyd’s OODA Loop, but they usually forget the Boyd made the point that the loop was exactly that loop — a series of adaptive actions –action–reaction-reaction to the reaction–more action , continuously starting over anew. In a conventional war, the Ukrainians should have give up Bakhmut shortly after Soledar fell. It was madness to continue losing so many men for so little. But political and social factors trumped military commonsense. And the Russians were happy to oblige. Now, if you look at the “contact line” you see that the UAF is narrowly focused on Bakhmut while the Russians are active all along the line from East to West, continuously “demilitarizing” the UAF. Bakhmut will fall eventually — which will have political consequences in Kiev. It is not just conscripts who have been dying in Bakhmut but some of the UAF’s best units are down 30% – -or more. With the fall of Bakhmut I think you will see the RF also taking Ugledar, Adeevka, Krasny Liman and perhaps even Kramatorsk and Slavyansk — not in fast “Big Arrow” offensives but in an incrementalist fashion. Where the UAF have high ground or huge fortifications, the RF will just put these concentrations under siege, cutting off supplies.
Forgive my English but this article from a french analyst seem very interesting to me.
Title: “The MSM draw most of their analysis of the war from the sister-in-law of the woman who made the war inevitable: Victoria Nuland”
In brief the “Institute for Study of War” was funded and is run by Kimberley Kagan which is a sister in law of Victoria Nuland.
Here the french article translated in English by google:
The original in french:
Much thanks for everything !
Also on the summary of events in Bakhmut.
To the far West of the city, people are waiting inline outside banks across the USA.
When the one ring to rule them all (the USD) goes into Mount Doom will the battles it is funding around the world crumble into dust?
k. talaat says
There are two types of US Dollars. Internal to the US Dollars and Euro Dollar or overseas US Dollars. The Euro Dollar market is so much greater than the US market. Euro Dollar market is highly leveraged and is quiet volatile. The US will be fine, Europe will feel the collapse of the Euro. The US is still a strong and a large economy. Europe’s economy has been wrecked for a great reset.
Art Thomas says
“The US will be fine.”
You wanna bet on that? You keep printing money to prop up an economy that needs to correct itself, rid itself of bad investments, and you’re facing hyperinflation. You raise the interest rate to stem this inflation and you risk recession and unemployment. Remember the 70’s? Stagflation: unemployment and inflation. The US is caught between the devil and deep blue sea. It’s not only arrogant in thinking it can successfully rule the world with its military, it is supremely arrogant in thinking it can successfully rule the world’s economies with its Central Bank, the Federal Reserve.
k. talaat says
Art … the US Commercial Banks are not our guardian angels. but the devil you know…
The US Banks are pulling their overseas Dollars back into the US. They will begin allocating capital to re-industrialize the US. The Fed is not opposed to multiple world reserve currencies as stated by Powell. The Fed is stopped Europe’s control over the costbof the Dollar and the cost of maintaining a single reserve currency in the form of Wars to steal other’s resources.
Instead of betting me, why don’t you research for yourself.
However, you are right about the US coming in for a hard landing. The old European money that can’t give up control and theft needs to be bankrupted to keep them from imposing communism on the world. That is the real WW3 that is underway.
Art Thomas says
Perhaps Powell realizes that the US can no longer bully a substantial part of the world(Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.. Who would want to denominate their assets in dollars when the US has shown the world that if you don’t tow the US line they’ll freeze those assets. I understand that China’s holding of US debt is at a 12 year low. And even Japan has been cutting it’s US bond holdings.
The US govt. is 32 trillion in debt. The Congressional Budget Office predicts 15 trillion more over the next 10 years. The foreign appetite for US debt is disappearing. How is US going to finance this 15 trillion dollar debt? Either the FED must raise the interest rate to attract investors and risk crashing the economy or it must monetize the debt and risk runaway inflation. The US economy may appear strong, but is it really? As I implied above it will have to rid itself of bad investments, none of this too big to fail BS, and adopt sound and commonsense economic policies. We will have to wait and see.
Mick Moose says
Yes, I believe we folk here on U.S.A. mainstreet are already in trouble, but don’t just yet realize it. I for one am having trouble getting my motorcycle and car parts from Japan lately. This was never a problem before.
Interesting comment! I guess that the best thing canadians can do is to stop sending money and weapons to the banderites/azovites. Sadly, it seems that all political parties in Canada are supporting the progressist values of the EU. Canadians are expected to follow the guidelines given by Ursula and the US deep state.. They are telling us that Russia and China are OUR ENEMIES!! Confirmed by MSM.. Pretty easy to see who is lying!
With all respect!
Against white supremacy says
Let us hope that Gollum will not send too much of the taxpayers money to the Azov Battalion ( or the nationalist heroes as they are called by the MSM… ) Are we allowed to say this? Are we allowed to think about this? The censors will decide.
Thank for your comment!
the blame-e says
In the eastern part of the city the central bankers have just rescued another banking institution. And Monday hasn’t even officially opened for business yet. Not that these fool idiots know anything about conducting straightforward business. I’m expecting a rout of all Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut today. Nobody is getting their money out of anywhere alive. Ukrainian depositors are going to die where they stand.
I can’t follow war. I don’t do war. But, please explain why the RF is working with NATO in Syria yet fighting NATO in Ukraine + separately I’d watch my back with China…but, I trust nobody, nobody at all
What makes you think RF is working with NATO in Syria?
NATO created an Islamic insurgency to topple Assad, while pretending to be fighting the Islamists (who they have been funding and supplying weapons to. Russia, on invitation from Assad, stepped in to defeat the Islamist and thwarted regime change in Syria. In doing so, Russia painted a big NATO target on its back (even bigger than before).
In some neocon playbook for perpetual American hegemony, the calculus was that Russia must be taken out first before China, the real existential threat to eternal Western global domination, could be dealt with.
Eric Newhill says
The reality is that the US and Russia have been coordinating deconfliction on a daily basis in Syria since both countries placed troops there. I strongly suspect that deconfliction communications and teams are hard at work in Ukraine; e.g. Biden’s trip. Russia was given the heads-up and agreed to ensure that Biden would not be attacked on purpose or by accident. I am sure that there are other agreements made re; what can be attacked and what cannot.
“… please explain why the RF is working with NATO in Syria …”
jeezuz, maybe you need to start following so as to avoid asking such questions that make you look silly.
k. talaat says
Eazy my friend, we are all on an individual learning curve and some have just taken the red pill. So be happy they want to understand and please don’t be so eager to be offended.
Dave Huff says
I wonder what it’s like to be smarter then everyone else….
Eric Newhill says
…..Only fools and liars know
Your comment is an EXCELLENT ONE!!!!
It would be a waste of time to even try to go against your point!
Respect to you!
It is now extremely difficult on the web to just express the fact that we can agree with your opinion. Indeed I agree with you… And I hope my positive comment will not be deleted! With respect and best wishes!
Censorship is a cancer and everybody should fight against it!
Allways happy to read your comments
Excellent! We are living in a world where asking a question is almost a crime and we are never sure if we are ALLOWED by the CENSORS to just say that we agree with your opinion. So, I will try to say that I agree with your effort to lead the readers to reconsider the facts… I hope it is possible to do that in 2023. Otherwise the UN chart means absolutely NOTHING
Eric Newhill says
The Narrative is all that counts. If you question it, you risk being deemed “One of Them”. Some questions may be asked as long as the questioner is willing to accept an answer consistent with the core of The Narrative
Hal Duell says
A private army is a problem in the making for any government. It can so easily become a rod for one’s own back. Is this the case with Prigozhin? Maybe. He is a media queen, and a fairly skillful one. But he is not the general on the ground, and he has not personally led any military successes to tout. My take is that he is a politician in the wings. Will he declare for the Presidency in the next Russian elections? The Myth of Icarus comes to mind.
About the Battle of Bakhmut, and I agree it is neither Stalingrad nor Verdun. For the many armchair generals suggesting either, I suggest considering Alexander Mercouris’s offer of Dien
Paul Greenwood says
Then explain why CIA has a private army 60,000 strong. If USA is so keen on civilian control of military why is Defence Secretary a general ?
Wagner is a PMC so non-Russians can serve and not be considered working for another state.
I’d be more inclined to think that Wagner PMC is there to give Russian govt. ‘plausible deniability’; at least not in Ukraine but in other locations IE MENA.
It is fun though that Davis chooses Putin’s hometown and the battle Putin’s father fought as an example.
Rob Rhodes says
Col. Davis writes as if Prigozhin is in military command of the Wagner forces, in fact he is a businessman, Russian officers taking orders through the usual chain of command run the group.
It always amazes me how thick and ignorant many/most current and retired US/UK/NATO officers are.
In any other industry one must know their own business, and that of the competition, inside out. To be clueless means low performance and the next step is the unemployment line.
k. talaat says
Do any of the “analysts” out there take into account the fact that Russia’s best fighting forces, numbering around 600,000 haven’t joined the fighting yet? One needs more than a snapshot of the battle field to read the tea leaves. We need to look at the Balance Sheet.
Is Russia using all that has developed so far to turn Ukraine into a long term bleeding wound for NATO? Can the US, in the next two years. mobilize, train and supply 600 thousand experienced troops to counter Russia in addition to a force to fight China? Woke alert, look at who is in line to take over as Nato Chief “with an emphasis on women.” Chrystia Freeland, Ursula von der Leyen, Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, and former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Really, a bunch of women who never cleaned a weapon, to head a defensive/offensive alliance? Russia is gearing to clean NATO’s clock and no woke feminist will care about the men doing the dying.
Bazza McKenzie says
You left out Boris the Turnip from your list of women aspirants. I’m sure he’ll make the requisite TG adjustments if required.
k. talaat says
LOL. no doubt.
Larry, do you think that the West is also using this battle to improve and test new battle strategies, communications and possibly weapons? Having realized that their battle tactics and methods are unfit for this type of combat, they’re trying to regroup before moving on to China? And, of course, in process they completely disregard the lives of their Ukr “allies”, sending them into the meat grinder?
It’s interesting that the Ukr soldiers in Bakhmut complain about their military and political leadership, how they failed them, etc., they don’t say much about NATO. It appears that they have no expectations of NATO, other than having their gear. The videos of their rants against their own leadership are abundant, expecially on Odysee.com for example.
See also, the last road to Bakhmut open to Ukr. It’s not really a road, just a dirt path through mud fields, littered with bodies and destroyed vehicles. Truly a meat grinder.
the blame-e says
The Ukraine War will be decided when Washington, DC is nuked.
The United States government has become a nest of xenomorphs.
the blame-e says
“Chrystia Freeland, Ursula von der Leyen, Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, and former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic.”
You left out the really bad women. The truly skanky ones. Hillary Clinton. Finish PM Sana Marrin. International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde. Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern. Nancy Pelosi. AOC. Dianne Feinstein. Maxine Waters. NYS Governor Kathy Hochul.
All of these women have secret Azov lovers and little Nazi babies somewhere.
Women can’t handle advanced citizenship. Not locally, and certainly not on a world stage. Not when what a woman wants is her own way.
Russia is holding back its reserves for when the US Government decides to come to the inevitable aid of “the Ukrainian martyrs.”
Russia knows it can’t win, but NATO, meaning all of Europe and the UK will be toast.
Washington, DC will be nuked. No hegemon(e) no total world domination.
As Peter Sellers playing Chief Inspector Clouseau in the Pink Panther series, said once, “…woman’s place is at home.” And I happen to agree with that statement.
Greeting from Tehran. As Peter Sellers playing Chief Inspector Clouseau in the Pink Panther series, said once, “…woman’s place is at home.” And I happen to agree with that statement.
Eurasia prevails when the War Party can‘t sell debt to fund its war. only De-dollarization ends this global war.
De-dollarization is the critical variable in this global struggle.
k. talaat says
Bringing up Pillory and Kerosene Maxene in one sentence conjures painful images and is considered cruel to and unusual punishment to say the least.
Freeland would fit the bill; a skank and a bona fide NAZI.
The lone old says
One of the reasons for the importance of Stalingrad was that the Soviets had to prevent the Nazis from crossing the Volga. If they had succeeded, the Japanese would have caught the Soviets off guard by attacking from Manchuria.
It seems that the pro-nato leadership of Moldavia has postponed its attack on Transnistria until the AFU has succeeded elsewhere.
But in no case the importance of these two battles can be compared. If I had to find a comparison, I would equate Bakhmut to the battle of Caen which resulted in the Falaise cauldron. But this comparison will not speak to the masses who are too ignorant.
The duration of the operations, the slow but steady territorial gains and the devastating losses inflicted on the AFU are turning NATO’s propaganda campaign into a loss of face for NATO and Jo.
It is quite stupid for the pro-NATO propagandists to compare Bakhmut to Stalingrad because they equate themselves with Nazis.
The main front of this war is the de-dollarization, if it was too fast, maybe the obese part of the population would not be able to take care of itself and to feed itself. According to the latest article by Pepe Escobar, things are moving forward. It is so devastating for the US that successes in this area cannot be claimed for fear of escalating to nuclear.
“The battle in Bakhmut will be decided by the country that has the best logistics, the most troops, the most fire power and the best leaders.”
That statement actually hints at the real complexity of war. However, rarely does one country, or allied countries, excel in all categories mentioned. there is always a mix. Or the opposing side has close to equality in one or more of those areas. Indeed, one side might excel in firepower but lack the appropriate logistical support to maintain it. There are many, many combinatory possibilities there. What I would suggest is that war will be decided by the country that not only exhibits overall superiority in these categories but also best manages those capabilities to achieve its strategic goals. This obviously implies that it is capable above all of defining a clear strategy and subsequently using those resources to best manage operational objectives that fit into that strategy.
But not having expertise either in military affairs or intelligence services, I might well be wrong… 😉
Eric Newhill says
Political will will make a huge difference in this war – as it does in most – if it keeps dragging on forever because allegedly 5D chess playing Russia keeps transcending time and space (doesn’t care about territory, lol)
BTW – 10,000 Ukrainians in Bakhmut? That’s it? The Russians have been slugging it for months against a mere 10,000 defenders? Sad. Pathetic, actually.
You don’t seem to understand. What remains might be only 10-20 thousand, but many thousands have already been killed and maimed in Bakhmut over the months. Kiev keeps sending them – the Russians keep killing them. They haven’t called Bakhmut the “Meat Grinder” for nothing.
Well, Russia has the most troops, the logistics as they control the roads and trains on their side of the front (and the power grid), the most fire power (10:1), and its leaders are in Moscow, not D.C. – a country not technically at war.
Eric Newhill says
How many troops does Ukraine have? How many Russia? How do you know? Russia has more troops than NATO? Fascinating. Why aren’t they fighting? Where are all of these troops? Why hasn’t the mission been accomplished given all these troops that are out there…..somewhere?
Truth in Advertising says
Why not just change your name to Eric the Naysayer and be done with it?
Why should they big arrow attack (other than your desire for Russian blood) when artillery is doing the killing. Your other points are irrelevant the mission is to kill Ukrainians – that is the point of war.
Allan Mountain says
We are fortunate to have you commenting on this site Newdill.
Life would be so dull without you.
Every comment you make gives us all a huge belly laugh.
“Why hasn’t the mission been accomplished..”
Perhaps it has and will become more accomplished with each passing day.
Of course it may have been not a mission but a job best done without emotion since that would be more accomplished.
The west has become a chicafied aglommeration of feminist woke nonesense and mismanagement. Women cannot make the balanced sensible tough decisions to protect their families and countries that is a male job — humans are a male dominated tribal species. Women put in these jobs become unhinged and try to act strong at the wrong time and things. They are inflexible and irrational and often vicious and vindictive especially to each other. They are the ones behind cancelling.
It will end in the destruction of the West through the creation of societies no one wants to fight for with their drag queen story hours defacing George Washington statues 1619 CRT and all the rest of it.
Janet Yellen just destroyed the banking system — now no one ever need worry about how much money they put in any bank. She is dumb and in the wrong job.
k. talaat says
Janet Yellen is a WEF agent and a dangerously naive academic. She is on a mission to destroy the US.
Spot on Bro! The problem with these dangerous shrews is that they all wish they were men – that they had the physical strength to muscle their way into making the world what they want, and to be CELEBRATED for it. Of course, no man wants a woman like that.
The world worked far better when women understood that the TRUE power they possess is the Power of the Pussy. It is only when women use their sexual power properly can they bend men to higher moral purpose and good. True women understand that their REAL power comes from bearing children and shaping the children’s minds in those crucial early, formative, years.
The downside of having women in public positions of power is that they tend to argue from positions of moral certainty, not pragmatic deal-making mindsets that allow for both sides to keep living with some self-respect. It’s their way or the highway. While this approach has its merits in educating young boys, in adult dealings, it is fatal. Thus came the Cancel Culture.
Before y’all cut me down, remember two great monarchs, Elizabeth I of England, and Catherine the Great of Russia EXPLICITLY used their sexuality to bend men to their will in service of NATIONAL INTEREST. No one will ever accuse Billary or Vicki Oldland of THAT!
If women want to Rule, all they need to do is wear heels, hose, and well-cut clothes, and spread a little ambrosia under our noses. They’ll get whatever they want. Instead they want to grow penises. 😭
It’s said that women make the best middle management. They willingly follow orders from their male superiors and are clever at convincing/encouraging the employees to do their best. It’s quite like in an old-fashioned family structure but where the employees take the place of the children.
On the other hand it’s not often you see a group of women start anything commercial by themselves. Put three or more women together and they quickly start talking about children or how they can get money from the gubmint or some rich dude.
“Instead they want to grow penises. 😭”
On a completly unrelated scientific note, the female spotted hyena’s external genitalia closely resembles that of the male. Besides having a pseudo-penis, the female of the species outweighs and dominates the male.
Not sure I agree. As with the other gender (and there are just two), there are competent and incompetent officials. One can hardly look at the Joe Biden and think he is a compent leader because he’s a man.
Dude. Ol’ Joe ain’t got a working brain. Then again, maybe he never had one
Eoin Clancy says
Larry, I believe the battle for Bakhmut is more like the battle of Berlin in 1945, superior numbers of professional soldiers one side against a small number of professional soldiers and incompetent conscripts on the other.
The ridiculousness of Ukraine’s situation reminds me of when Hitler and his staff boarded the train for Berlin to the bunker and one of the staff officers remarked dryly that it was better to be in Berlin as they could travel from the Eastern front to the western front by trolley car. Even Hitler had a good laugh.
Reports are coming in again the Ukrainians are murdering Russian soldiers taken captive.
Wagner PMCs have taken note and aren’t leaving too many Ukrainians alive in the trenches and in the buildings.
If that is true it would be untypically stupid of them. Either the people in the trenches are conscripts and victims of the Kiev Stalinist regime or they are mercenaries or Banderites. No point in slaughtering conscripts. Much more sensible to be kind to the poor saps. At the beginning of the SMO the first thing the Russians did with prisoners was to let them phone home. Smart move. The others are useful items of exchange or political pawns.
None of which alters the fact that in any battle and the blood is up people get shot.
Pox Americana says
Why would you expect anything less when the US and EU have given Ukraine a ‘get out of the ICC free’ card?
The more they turn a blind eye to UA’s war crimes, the bigger the slap coming upside their heads. Some people never forget.
here`s what I don`t get: if “Russia has at least 600,000 troops that it has not yet committed to the various fights along that 1000 mile front”, then why not temporarily invest 50`000 of those men to bakhmut; thereby ensuring a complete cauldron and decisive victory within probably days? the psychological effect would be devastating, the battle for donbass literally over in one fell swoop…
instead, the interminable bakhmut slog continues…and with it rumours of russian ineptitude.
Because the longer Russia keeps the it going the more equipment and Ukies/mercs are destroyed.
And Russia does not care about unfounded ‘rumours’.
Agreed. Whether Bakhmut battle or not, the infamous 600k “in the wings”, doing nothing but waiting for the “big Ukraine spring offensive” or a NATO direct strike, seems a little far fetched. Starting to realize, there is no 600k anywhere, it’s a myth. Guessing now, they’ve 200k tops trained. This whole SMO is turning into nothing but a propaganda campaign for both sides. And Prigozhin most likely accurate on his 1-3 year assessment for completion of Donbas entirely, as well as another 5 or more for De-militarization.
The only thing that would actually change “on the ground” fighting, would be complete economic collapse… no more money, then military defense would collapse. Since the combined West loves their proxy wars, they’ll find $$$ to keep it going”as long as it takes”. The idea of having 800 worldwide bases and we’ve “run out of weapons” is ludicrous… they’ll arm Ukraine with something forever and ever…insurgents will arrive in masses.
just saying says
Prigozhin’s long term assessment (I can’t remember how many years he said) was not about complete demilitarization, but about getting to La Manche, a.k.a. English Channel. He is “troll extraordinaire” (and a weapon in a propaganda war).
This war was about economic collapse right from the start. At first, The West was expecting Russian economy to collapse, now it’s the other way around. The difference is the timeframe. West expected fast collapse of the enemy, and Russians expect it will take some time, and are pacing themselves. Even Putin recently said that this will take a while.
Russia are winning. The West is losing.
The refugee crisis is growing in Europe and maintaining the war is hideously expensive. Ammo supplies are shrinking. Meanwhile the public are losing interest, and many are fed up with it. Much of the population of Europe has found themselves considerably poorer than they were a year ago, and we are still running on cheap Russian gas, which will be replaced by vastly more expensive LNG in the winter.
Most of the military folks here in the UK are now saying that Ukraine is going to have to give up a lot of territory. Big change from six months ago!
A few wingnuts are still droning on about re-taking Crimea, but they are starting look increasingly delusional.
A big part of the China hysteria is to change the subject, due to the realisation that the Ukraine fiasco is failing.
Eric Newhill says
You nailed it, Turbind1.
Russia Fanbois/America haters however cannot adapt to what is obviously reality. They retreat into angry fantasies of mass violence; including nuking the US, blitzing, like Hitler, to the shores of the English Channel, crushing the western economy and causing ruin and starvation in each citizen’s life.
Father Ignatius says
Eric the Naysayer sounds upset. There there, my boy. It’ll all work out in the end. It’s God’s will.
Slaviša Brkić says
You are moron
Yale has a lock on your mind says
Have you noticed how Biden gets angry when something falls outside his sphere of comprehension? Well, the same for Eric the Redfaced there. He has a hard time understanding why folks react so viscerally to 9 years of a fascist Ukrainian regime bent on the genocide of a third of its population in the name of bandera’s childish, yet quite homicidal concept of nationalism yet are still somehow elevated to ‘the great democratic hopefulls’. Last time I heard that load of malarkey was when Albright called Thaqi the organ-harvesting Snake ‘the great democratic hope of the Balkans’. BTW: how is his war crimes trial going? Released on his own recognizance, you say?
Bandera aimed to make of Ukraine a one-party fascist dictatorship without national minorities.
Hey, don’t look at me. I didn’t say it. It was that Russia-hating Yale historian/ideologue Tim Snyder back in 2010. https://www.nybooks.com/online/2010/02/24/a-fascist-hero-in-democratic-kiev/
Eric Newhill says
Ah. Working the good old virtue signaling/moral superiority angle. Is everyone here a sleazy lawyer wannabe? Have you not noticed that many commenters here are perfectly happy with – even defensive of – the CCP? Some even of the Soviets. Excuse me if I’m not impressed by your argument (but, but, but the Ukronazis!) and see it as thin cover for your base hatred of the west – especially the USA.
Regardless of who’s “side” and friends are responsible for more (or less) crimes against humanity, there are still facts on the ground that are independent of your little morality plays and exist whether or not you like them.
Russia went into Ukraine too light believing they could force a quick capitulation of Kiev. The Russians mis-assessed horribly and then they got bogged down. They bit off more than they could chew. They are still reeling from that blunder. Even Scott Ritter recently said exactly that. He even used the phrase “bit off more than they could chew” (my way of phrasing for a few months now). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCDiw6eg04E
It’s very amusing that everyone here is so critical of the US military and its alleged losing streak, and yet, basically, fall back, by way of explanation of whatever the hell Russia is doing, on the US strategy in Vietnam – body counts. “Well the Russians have a favorable kill ratio” “Russia doesn’t care about territory. They will just roam around Ukraine killing all of the Ukrainians – Clausewitz would approve!!!”.
Pack of hateful little know-nothing jokers.
Is it? Rumsfeld said you go to war with the army you have. It’s been 20+ years now and the US hasn’t prepared for a war like this. The US is top notch at light infantry, mobile combined arms operations with air superiority. If it wasn’t for Ohio congressmen worried about union jobs DoD was going to stop making tanks.
$800B is heavy on graft and benefits (which still fail many vets) but light on artillery ammunition. Bases all over the world just stretch the volunteer military.
As for miracles of deindustrialization. I’m involved with a massive project on a piece of critical national security infrastructure that will be absolutely necessary to reindustrialize the US. It’s a year behind schedule and hasn’t actually started yet. The cost has tripled before any work got done. And the original plan saw it taking 5+ years. So figure 10 in reality if it gets back on schedule. Fantasies of rosy the riveter don’t mean anything. The average American can’t change a tire; we’re not gonna start building tanks in a month because we decide to. Especially if we don’t first purge the finance capitalists who sold our industry away in the first place, and they’re protected by politicians in both parties.
We could keep an insurgency going indefinitely. But this ain’t that and it won’t be because Russia knows that and Russia gets a vote.
k. talaat says
Wagner are among other things urban assault fighters and answer directly to Putin, by-passing RF chain of command. People anticipated winter offensive but the winter was mild and short. Soon the battlefield will be mud as the surrounded UF in Bakhmut are experiencing, as they withdraw abandoning their vehicles to the mud. That leaves the spring offensive after the mud dries.
The Russians are not in a hurry and why should they be? As long as the UF are impalling themselves on Russian deffensives, the Russian are happy to rack up UF casualties and UF loss of equipment. The more losses, the less becomes the ability of the UF to fight. In my humble opinion, the RF in Belarus are a checkmate to the Poles and to any NATO incursions into western Ukraine. I believe that at the right moment, the RF in Belarus with enter Ukraine forcing any remnants of the UF to fall back to defend Kiev. Then moving up from the south towards Kiev, the RF would in effect end the war. I think the Russians will drag this war past the 2024 elections. It will bleed NATO’s resources and will hurt the Democraps and Biden in the elections. Also, it will help the Chinese by making it hard for the Neocons and the IMC to sell to the American people two more wars on two fronts separated by thousands of miles, while the Russians and Chinese are connected by land. The logistics would present a nightmare for US planners.
“Wagner are among other things urban assault fighters and answer directly to Putin, by-passing RF chain of command.”
That may (or may not) have been true before the SMO. Yes, the West loves to portray Wagner as “Putin’s own army”. That’s BS. Now, Wagner is a part of the RF, perhaps an irregular part, but still well within the RF and under the overall command of Gerasimov. It’s obvious that you can’t have tens of thousands of fighters operating on their own. And anyone can see that they cooperate with the regular forces.
The shell famine Wagner suddenly experienced is said to be because the staff started treating them like any other regular unit. This seems to have been mostly fixed though.
Wagner’s status is at best fleeting. Some in the Duma want it strictly regulated. Prigozhin wants to change its objectives after the SMO.
If Bakhmut is Bakhmut we can say that Wagner is Wagner.
Eric Newhill says
“Wagner are among other things urban assault fighters and answer directly to Putin, by-passing RF chain of command.”
The Russian military can’t train its regular troops to kick in doors? They need Wagner to do that?
The excuse making in these around these parts is becoming more risible by the day
just saying says
People anticipated some big winter offensive because Hollywood and CNN have shaped their understanding of war (and many other things, for that matter). Russians have been fighting attritional war ever since the initial “cavalry charge phase” ended, and are focused on minimizing casualties even if that means giving up ground. Big offensive is totally opposite from that.
Eric Newhill says
more b/c Russia cheerleaders like Ritter and Macgregor assured us there was going to be a massive war ending offensive once the ground freezes. Made sense to any traditionally trained military men. What else could be the purpose of the alleged big Russian build-up in Belarus and Crimea?
But then Russia didn’t do it. I changed my mind to no winter offensive wen it didn’t happen in early Feb, but Macgregor and Ritter kept on banging that drum. A lot of what Russia fanbois take as gospel is merely incestuous opinion coming from a very few sources in an echo chamber.
IMO, Russia is afraid of NATO and the build up is not for an attack, but an attempt to intimidate NATO into not sending in several divisions.
Someone with no military background who is glued to the echo chamber will now offer a brilliant highly detailed and well thought out counter assessment like, “Yeah sure. Scared of NATO. LOL. Go away deep state troll”.
The winter has been exceptionally mild and the ground never froze in the whole theater for a long enough period of time. The current Ukrainian debacle on the muddy roads is proof enough that any eventual planned winter offensive was correctly cancelled. Even the counter-Bakhmut offensive is now purportedly postponed by a week due to expected heavy rain.
As MacGregor has mentioned Operation Bagration couldn’t be started until June 22, 1944 because of the mud. So you may still have several months to continue pester us fanboys with the lack of any real action from the RF. And if those pesky Chinese will come around with their peace plans, our blood thirst may never be quenched. 🙁
you have become a troll, because you endlessly spout the same old BS.
If only the rest of the world was half as smart as Field Marshall Eric, they would only see how right you are (in your own mind).
Everything you accuse others of is just your own projection.
k. talaat says
For you to attack expert professionals, who just like everyone else, use open source information (they are not on the Kremlin distribution list), perform a pretty good professional analysis of the situation and possible developments (possible is binary), should really command more respect from angry keyboard cowboys with little to no critical thinking. Respect commands respect.
k. talaat says
DonkeyShot… Russia is working to MOBILIZE 1 to 1.5 million men.
martin mkultra7 says
The forces in Belarus have little to do with Ukraine and more to do with Poland and NATO and the Baltics to a lesser degree Germany.Why commit forces to a battle being won?
k. talaat says
Eazy my friend, we are all on an individual learning curve and some have just taken the red pill. So be happy they want to understand and please don’t be so eager to be offended.
I think it was the not very literate US Civil War General Nathan B. Forest who said that the art of war is to be ‘the firstest with the mostest.’
What weight can the hysterical gossip of paid Western media have in Russia?
Russia goes its way slow and relentless like a bulldozer (and unfortunately we are on that road…)
Where’s the evidence that Russia has 600,000 troops not engaged in the battle? That’s even more than MacGregor’s claims that they have 540,000 INCLUDING those who are fighting. And he is the one who generally claims the biggest numbers.
Russia conscripted 300,000. Shoigu said 300,000 had finished training INCLUDING the voluntary (allegedly around 80k). Simplicius argues that Russia started the SMO with less than 100k troops.
There are rumors that conscription continues. These are just that, rumors.
If there are, say, 200k troops currently fighting Larry actually says that Russia has 800,000 troops. Please show me some evidence of this. And with evidence I mean statements from official Russian general/politicians, not from some blogger or “analyst”.
Paul Greenwood says
Learn the difference between conscription and mobilising reserves
That is why British soldiers leaving the Army to fight for Ukraine are liars because they are on the Reserve List for 10 years after release
Ah! The famous British nitpicker!
Conscription means being forced to sign a contract. Whether you have previous military training or not is irrelevant. Check your Webster, Collins, whatever and then read more about the ongoing conscription, draft and mobilizations here:
But take your heart medicine first as the words are used all over the place.
Eric Newhill says
Yeah. That fish keeps getting bigger every time the story is told.
Like I’ve been saying, a lot of pro-Russia “assessment” comes from a small, incestuous, circle of pundits; each reinforcing and building upon the statements of the others, which each absorbs as righteous gospel. I got “red pilled” on this situation late last Summer.
Jim Bob says
Instead of belly-aching, show how this “small, incestuous, circle of pundits” is WRONG.
I’ve yet to see anything of substance from all the noise you make here.
Vojkan M. says
If that guy Davis really thinks what he writes and made it to lt. col. in the US army, then the US shouldn’t try to go to war against China, really.
Oblomovka daydream says
Arguably the most dangerous tasks within the RF are being performed by air defense units, who often enter the ‘grey zone’ ahead of the RF frontline https://www.kp.ru/daily/27476.5/4732222/
Battle for the sky near Svatovo: Four Russian heroes against a helicopter, air defense fury and “lead testicles”
Military correspondent “KP” Alexander Kots spent several days on combat duty with an air defense unit
IN THE DEEPTH OF ENEMY POSITIONS
First, the sound of a working lawn mower was heard in the sky. Before the lens had time to grab the silhouette of the enemy drone wing against a blue background, the air was cut by the characteristic whistle of arrival, behind which, quite expectedly, a gap should have been heard. But there was no explosion. A 155-mm projectile (and this is a NATO caliber) gently entered the muddy soil and did not work.
– Get them off the field! – the officer standing nearby commands into the radio, before we take cover in the dugout.
Just 10 minutes ago, the Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile system rolled out into the open, deployed its radars and even managed to detect a target at a distance of 7 kilometers, at an altitude of 4,600 meters. This air defense crew operates at an atypically close distance for air defense from enemy positions. But it has the ability not only to cover our front line and artillery, but also to work in the depths of enemy formations.
You can’t just stay in one place for a long time. On the other side, the radiation of the locators is detected immediately. And if an aircraft with anti-radar missiles (as a rule, these are American AGM-88 HARMs) are on duty in the sky at 80 kilometers, then the chances of staying alive are sharply reduced. And in our case, “Thor” went into the field and deployed antennas in the square where the enemy drone was already working on it, which fell into the blind zone of the radars of our complex. It would seem that air defense is a rear profession. But in the division of the 3rd motorized rifle division it is easier to calculate how many air defense fighters do not have combat wounds.
– The first wound was received when there was a flight of aircraft with a rocket launch. Fortunately, we were in hiding at the command of the senior commander. I got a shell shock,” one of the PVE fighters tells me. – The second time is already more seriously hooked. Worked out, shot down two shock drones. And with them was a third, apparently reconnaissance. I found out where the launch was made from, we rolled over. But the artillery was able to get us. He received multiple shrapnel wounds and a second concussion.
– Were you hunted?
– Yes, they worked purely for us.
Maybe now our “Thor” was waiting. The crew had already curled up and rolled to a new point of duty, and the enemy continued to throw from a 155-millimeter gun into a square. Moreover, by a large spread, it was clear that it was acting from a maximum distance. Recently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Svatovsky line have been pulling their artillery further to the rear. It is safer to fire from there, but accuracy suffers seriously, even if these are Western models of military equipment.
– Are you afraid to work in such conditions? – I ask the driver from the mobilized.
– The worst thing was to call the administration, ask if there is a summons or not? It was scary. And they came here – normally, they adapted. They shoot loudly, at first, of course, these noises of artillery frightened us. But they got used to it.
Volodya from Belgorod, worked in a sports school, did not “mow down” from the service. Behind him is a term in the missile forces.
– I live in a border town. We get very hard. We must protect our country, our loved ones. How without it?
– How do you distinguish your targets from the enemy ones, – I ask the crew commander, while we are waiting for the shelling in the dugout of the hospitable mobilized from Tatarstan.
– We work in a big system. If we see the target, we report its coordinates. What is the range, azimuth and altitude. Further, the command reports to the management in the center. A decision is already being made there, whose goal it is. If its own, remember and discard. If it is someone else’s, then we decide to destroy it.
ORDER FOR THE DOWN “VETUSHKA”
I have known this unit for a long time. Even in Izyum, he started his own tradition – in the event of a feast, be sure to raise a toast to the air defense. Somehow, on one day, the crews there managed to shoot down eight Tochka U missiles that were flying in our direction. When the ninth one fell and exploded in the yard of our location, destroying a couple of dozen combat vehicles, no one even thought of “presenting” air defense for this. It’s just that the launch was a “doublet”, and the technology recognized the two missiles as one target.
And in this connection there is a detachment, which is ironically called “lead testicles.” These are fighters with portable anti-aircraft missile systems that go out to hunt for aircraft and turntables. And the metal “prichindaly”, according to the apt remark of the commander, is needed in order to prevent the rocket man from escaping when an attack aircraft rushes at you at an extremely low altitude. Today, “lead” carry out tasks that are akin to raids of spetsnaz intelligence officers.
In front of me sits a real helicopter hunter, a young officer who, with his group, goes behind the front line – into the gray zone. Otherwise, the turntable cannot be intercepted. The enemy knows about him and even announced a $45,000 bounty on his head.
“Not enough,” complains the officer. – I have two downed planes – that’s tens of millions of dollars. And a helicopter, probably the same number.
– How do you choose a place for an ambush?
– Yes, in the last example. A 3D map was loaded on a special computer, we looked at the heights, the routes of the turntables. We chose one of the highest points, which turned out to be in the buffer zone. The four of us moved out together with the scouts, reached the point by 7 in the morning and sat waiting under the trees for half a day. There is a lot of drone activity there. In the lunch area, they heard how they fly in. They took the pipes (MANPADS) on their shoulders, ran out into the field, because the view was only from it, and stood for about a minute. The first turntable flew. According to it, we did not work out specially so that the second one would be bolder. The first one quickly worked and left, on the second one we launched two missiles at once. They hit right in the upper blade. She just fell like a rock. The third evacuation chopper appeared for a second and immediately turned around.
– How far was it from our front line?
– From ours – a kilometer. And to the front edge of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – 500 meters.
– That is, in fact, they were shot down under their noses.
– We almost ran away, because the launch of an anti-aircraft missile is visible from almost everywhere. And the mortar guidance time is 2 minutes. Together with me then were: me, one platoon commander and two mobilized. That is, the mobilized people in the same way were already allowed into the third car along with me.
– How often do you have to make such forays into the gray zone?
– Often. Because planes now rarely come in, and the plane can be seen, as they say, from the front line. And the turntable is a more cunning aircraft, it can even work out and not seem. And in order to catch it, you have to go into the gray zone.
– Was the defeat of this helicopter somehow assessed by the command?
– I was presented to the Order of Courage, the platoon commander – to the medal “For Courage”. And St. George’s crosses of the 4th degree for two mobilized. But the senior command decided to present all four to the Orders of Courage.
“BAYRAKTARS” – ALREADY DISAPPEARING SPECIES
We get out of the shelter, sit down in a KamAZ that drove up, which, after 200 meters of driving across the field along the forest plantation, sits on its belly. Further – on foot. The thaw makes its own adjustments to the rhythm of hostilities. If caterpillar vehicles are still coping with muddy clay mixed with black soil, which the front roads have turned into, then wheeled vehicles are increasingly failing. I myself arrived here a day late – I could not overcome the flooded crossing in my off-road vehicle, the entrances to which were crammed with multi-ton cars. I had to make a detour with an intermediate overnight stay.
With an old acquaintance, now the head of the air defense division, we discussed what had changed in the tactics of the enemy.
– At the initial stage, the enemy used pairs of Su-25s as a rule. Army aviation also came in pairs. We put up 2-3 shooters with MANPADS, which sometimes went beyond our front line, into the buffer, gray zone. Today, aviation works much less, but the enemy has a lot of drones, both reconnaissance and strike. Right now, they have launched the Airborne UJ-22 with suspensions, I have not observed Bayraktars for the last 5-6 months. I think their limit has been exhausted, and if there is any reserve, then it is somewhere in the stash, for some serious event. But the enemy had a “roof” …
– What is this?
– This is an aircraft that patrols at a distance of up to 90 kilometers from our complexes and launches anti-radar missiles that are aimed at the radiation of our Thors, Pantsirs …
– Have long-range kamikaze drones reached you yet?
– If we are talking about the Switchblade-600, then so far no applications have been recorded in our area of responsibility. But it is possible and necessary to fight them. This is the use of electronic warfare systems in the areas of combat duty of our air defense systems. In general, we learn as problems arise. For every action, there is always a reaction.
Mariupol was Kadyrov’s show, Bakhmut is Prighozin’s. In Putin’s own humour, the theatre of absurbs. How apt.
k. talaat says
The two following headlines are noteworthy on their own, on 3/9:
2nd Kinzhal Attack Hits NATO’s Western Command Center 80 meters Underground, 40 Killed
on the 3/12:
The US Air Force B-52H Stratofortress Bomber “Organized” The Launch Of Cruise Missiles In St. Petersburg
Are they related? Is the Biden Admin. being stupid?
“IT AIN’T STALINGRAD, IT AIN’T VERDUN, IT IS BAKHMUT”
Try not to be so critical?
They lost China, so it is an understandable mistake to make.
Thank you for temporary access to your portal and consequent rise in “tracking” datastreams.
This post could have been stated in a much more flowery and convoluted manner. You are slipping!
“You are slipping!”
Lubrication is sometimes necessary to facilitate a trouble free exit.
Mr. Brazauskas is no longer alive, whilst some others remain, but I don’t know if the pianist whose repertoire most comprised of “All Russians are bastards” is, since he often placed sandbags in front of parliament just in case in the winter of 1992/93.
Much better! I didn’t know where I was headed or where I arrived, but, the journey was fun!
Eric Newhill says
“It is a simple math problem — Russia is firing at least 5 times the volume of artillery than Ukraine and Ukrainian forces hunkered down in Bakhmut. We do not live in a magic world where all shells fired by Ukraine cause casualties while Russian shells are ineffective. At a minimum, Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut are suffering at least five times the casualties relative to those of the Wagner Group.”
Nope. Sorry, but that is not the correct way to look at it. The Russians are the attackers and therefore must necessarily expose themselves to Ukrainian fires in order to advance, whereas the Ukrainians, as defenders, are dug in and protected. It’s actually pretty amazing how many shells can be fired without causing casualties when the targeted troops are ensconced in good cover.
All accounts – including from Prigozhin himself – are that the Russians are losing hundreds of men a day in their assaults on Bakhmut and associated towns. No doubt the Ukrainians are also losing similar numbers when they are pressed and have to come out to fight. The Russians will take Bakhmut, but they are not walking all over the Ukrainians and slaughtering them in a lopsided battle. That is ridiculous pro-Russia propaganda; as silly as anything produced by the ISW.
The Ukrainians are proving to be a tenacious and resourceful foe for the Russians. NATO aid is making a real difference. Russia is being bled just as the damn neocons planned. By the time this is over, the Ukrainian defenders will be wiped out, but Wagner will be badly mauled and perhaps no longer combat effective (or at least significantly reduced strength and effectiveness). The Russian Army is still cowering somewhere quiet while a few special units, like Russian Marines, help Wagner here and there. Deal with it Russia fanbois.
martin mkultra7 says
Newhill is back!Spoken like a true Nazi General speaking to Adolph in 1944.Mien Fuhrer,The russkies will eventually run out of everything!We all love Mark Twain,here is another of his homily’s:It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt”.
Eric Newhill says
Please tell us in which military you were an infantry officer – I am curious as to which military doesn’t understand that an attacking force is exposed and will take more casualties than the defenders, during the assault phase. Please, regale us with knowledge gleaned fro your deep and long military experience.
Or gulp more deeply of the Kool Aide and keep your “analysis” at the level of shallow snark.
Paulo Guerra says
Like the US casualties when they assaulted Iraq? With this “myth” there were only suicide assaults!
Prigozhin said that Wagner’s average KIAs in the Bakhmut theater was 20 and on a bad day 50 KIAs. He has also claimed that Wagner have killed 110k Ukrainians. So in a 1/5, 1/10 or a 1/20 scenario Wagner would have lost 22k, 11k or 5.5k soldiers respectively. I don’t remember the details around these statements though. But in either case it’s a lot of men. Anyway, when Prigozhin isn’t clowning around (and it’s hard to know when he is), he seems quite reliable.
Eric Newhill says
Fair enough. Yes, Prigozhin is an “interesting” guy.
It is probably true that Wagner has killed over 100K Ukrainians. However, I think that is the total over the past year. Looking at the 1/10 KIA ratio, the damage done to Wagner is proportionately fairly high give that Wagner is estimated to have had a combat strength of around 50K in total after the big recruitment program.
Furthermore, the daily KIA figures fluctuate. In heavy combat around Bakhmut there are no doubt days in which Wagner is losing hundreds of men, as Prigozhin said. Other more quiet days and in other areas of operation, the 20 – 50 KIA figure is probably more accurate.
If Wagner maxxed out at 50K troops in theater, then, at the rate things are going, they may be worn down to being combat non-effective before the Ukrainians are. Then the Russian Army will have to fight; or go home. So far, the Russian military has shown no fight at all outside of Spetznatz, Ru Marines and AB units – and has demonstrated lots of organizational structure issues.
Jim Bob says
Regarding the Russian military not fighting and having organizational structure issues – sources?
Larry Johnson says
I allow Eric to remain on this blog because he provides a good springboard for sane people to discuss calmly his crazy take.
Eric Newhill says
It’s obvious, Jim Bob.
But since I’m just a crazy guy, you can read “big Serge’s” similar observations here: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers
Maybe Big Serge has gone crazy now as well. He criticized Russia, OMG! Obviously the CIA got to him! Not like Macgregor, who did the right thing and swilled down a gallon more of the Kool Aide and now says that Russia will big arrow Ukraine with more than a million – that’s a 1 in front of six 0s! – man force. Any day now!
Let’s be honest here. Big Serge did not criticize Russia, quite the contrary. He penned a very interesting and thoughtful essay about the organization of the Russian army, and why it was well suited to peace time, and less to an industrial sized war, therefore inducing a reorganization to a more classic (soviet like) model.
All in all, it gives an image of the Russian army as a modern, very well lead and very adaptive organization.
For the record, Eric, I don’t think you’re a troll or crazy. You’re mostly an intelligent commenter who is (maybe) overreacting a bit to criticism.
Not Crazy says
“Overreacting a bit to criticism” sounds like eufemism one might say to a crazy person, in fear of an attack.
HMS Terror says
“Then the Russian Army will have to fight; or go home. So far, the Russian military has shown no fight at all outside of Spetznatz, Ru Marines and AB units – and has demonstrated lots of organizational structure issues.”
Something to be kept in mind …
The Russian army is made up of a relatively small professional core plus conscripts. Under Russian law, conscripted troops cannot cross the Russian border absent a formal declaration of war. One of the primary reasons for the 4 Oblasts’ hasty accession to the Russian Federation was to provide the legal cover for the deployment of conscripts in the rear areas there.
If the Russian army “has shown no fight at all”, it’s because it isn’t at war. In the 1st place, Ukraine doesn’t require, and maybe ain’t even worth a real war. In the 2nd place, Russia has to stay prepared for the real war that continues to loom on the horizon. Better still, of course that the US/NATO recognizes Russia’s preparedness and compares that to its own with a clear head, but Russia can hardly count on that.
The West hasn’t seen Mother Russia at war in 3 generations, and should it have to go to war again I don’t think it’ll like what it sees any more than the Wehrmacht did.
But what if the Russian strategy is to draw unending numbers of troops into a salient that is surrounded on all sides by massive numbers of heavy howitzers .. so that they can be destroyed by artillery. What if the attacks are mostly feints to get the Ukies to expose their positions so that they can be obliterated. And what if Russian overwatch sees the reinforcements as they go into the city and knows exactly where they end up
Larry says Verdun is not on point, but I think in one way it is. The original German plan was to surround a French salient with artillery and draw French troops into it by feigning attacks on terrain of great symbolic importance. That was the plan
It fell thru when the Germans actually captured some of the significant terrain that was meant to be used as bait. Then they switched gears and tried to capture all of the the terrain, losing the salient in the process. In the end Verdun became a
symbol of wars futility as Germany and France bled each other white. But that wasn’t the original plan at all. Strikes me that Russia is hewing to the original Verdun strategy
Right now the flanks aren’t very well protected. So I would think Wagner would need more reinforcements from the RF to carry out such a strategy.
Zelensky was right in that the road to the Kramatorsk agglomeration is open if Bakhmut falls (though the Siversk salient must be resolved first). But if the Ukrainians really start pulling forces from around the country to the Bakhmut area to protect Kramatorsk we could get a de facto end game for Donbass here.
We’ll have to wait and see. I think the Russians change their plans continuously after observing both the Ukrainians’ actions as well as the weather. Wagner may even suddenly pull back if they think their losses would be too great.
Jim Bob says
That’s a lot of copium on your part.
Aria Yves Poetry says
This is off topic….
There is a video I’ve just seen where Ukrainians are torturing / abusing a Russian POW for money and broadcast it on telegram! They boast they raised 10,000 UAH in a day.
THE VIDEO HAS THE ACCOMPANYING READOUT BELOW:
In our menu:
A blow to the face with a hand – 444 hryvnia
Stab in the stomach hand – 999 hryvnia
foot – 1199 hryvnia
Kick in the balls with a foot – 1999 hryvnia
Special conditions – the cost is negotiated separately.
For 444 hryvnia – they beat him in the face, hit in the stomach with a hand – 999 hryvnia, kick – 1199 hryvnia.
IMPORTANT: IF YOU HAVE AN TELEGRAM ACCOUNT — PLEASE REPORT THIS BRUTALITY. These Ukrainians are psychopaths! This is not the first video of Ukrainian / azov War crimes.
The video was forwarded from: ZradaXXII (Сергей) – telegram account.
I saw the video on (copy and paste to access telegram account): Juan Sinmiedo/Fearless John/Ukraine exposed.
I trust you, so I’m not going to look up the video. I don’t think there’s any good left in Ukraine. Just look at this video of Ukrainian Red Cross (!) taping a kid to a pole:
It’s degenerate culture. I sincerely hope the Russians go all the way to the Polish border and denazify this s-hole. The Nazis in Lvov must be held accountable. Peace agreements be damned.
The grim reaper (trying not to be too harsh) says
Like Zelensky, their ‘commander in chief’ once said about those nazis: “They do what they do.”
….and the Donbassers and Russians do what they do too. Sorry Zelensky. There’s consequences, even for you. Especially for you.
The international chemical weapons watchdog appears to have totally ignored the use of chemical weapons by the Ukrainians. They will ignore this too. Like they ignored the shelling of nuclear power stations.
It turns out all these international watchdogs are in Uncle Sam’s pocket.
This is why we need to have a multipolar world.
Lou Brooks says
Only a fool, or a puppet would equate Bahkmut to Stalingrad. There are simply no equitable comparisons between the two. None. I lack the formal education and military expertise of those making such statements and yet, I know the battle for Bahkmut in no way compares to the battle for Stalingrad.
Wagner and Russia continue to remove turds from the bath water and soon they will drain the tub as well. In the meantime, the Ukies, still strapped for artillery shells continue to bomb civilian populations in the east of Ukraine. These are populations that are well behind the line of conflict and away from Russian or Wagner troops. In short, the Ukies continue to commit war crimes. They could be using those shells at Bahkmut agains Wagner but seem to find great glee in shelling civilians instead.
If Zelensky, his government and his military officers think they will walk away from these war crimes they are mistaken. It may take years but every one will be brought to justice by a court of law.
Focusing on a larger picture…
As American’s banking system once again shows cracks from the wild gyrations of centrally controlled interest rates, the dying American Empire may be witnessing a mass exodus of its colonies.
A few paragraphs from the article that refer to the sabotage of Nordstream.
“Most ordinary Westerners live their lives trapped within the cocoon of our controlled media, and only a small minority of them may have recognized the magnitude of this historical event, with only a sliver blaming anyone other than the demonized Russian enemy.
But I doubt that this blindness applied to political leaders worldwide, who certainly understood what had probably happened. If America’s reckless and criminal government had wantonly destroyed the vital civilian infrastructure of its closest NATO allies, potentially crippling Europe’s economy, how could it ever be trusted to respect the lives and property of other countries? Surely the leadership of Saudi Arabia and many other important nations began asking themselves such questions.”
Alas, idiotic WW2 comparisons are a recurring obsession in The West. Particularly here in the UK where every enemy from Saddam to Quadaffi to Assad is labelled “the new Hitler”. Putin is just the latest in a long line to be demonised. It follows that inappropriate battle comparisons are made.
I think WW2 is emblematic because it’s the last time The West won a war, despite many attempts since.
Someone needs to point out that Russia played a gigantic part in the defeat of the Third Reich.
Instead, we find Russia dis-invited to ceremonies for the liberation of the camps.
A shameful slur on historical remembrance if ever there was one.
Since most of what is believed about WW2 is a false narrative, why not hammer every square peg into the WW2 round circle. It the way good propaganda works. No need for thought. Just a reflexive understanding.
“I have left the obvious, essential fact to this point, namely, that it is the Russian Armies who have done the main work in tearing the guts out of the German army. In the air and on the oceans we could maintain our place, but there was no force in the world which could have been called into being, except after several more years, that would have been able to maul and break the German army unless it had been subjected to the terrible slaughter and manhandling that has fallen to it through the strength of the Russian Soviet Armies.”
– Winston Churchill, 1944
just saying says
In other news, Navalny wins an Oscar.
There’s a lot of rumors about Bakhmut coming in from the Ukie side. Here’s one about pulling forces from the Belarus border:
“Our source in the OP said that the General Staff began to transfer reserves from the northern direction near Bakhmut, the General Staff is confident that there is no threat from Belarus, and now units trained in Britain are being sent to the East of Ukraine. Syrsky continues to pull together the best units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Bakhmut, which Zaluzhny wanted to use for the spring counteroffensive.”
Lou Brooks says
Interesting if correct. Again, the Russian forces essentially hold or do a slow roll while the Ukies move in and die by the droves. “Force Attrition” is the phrase of the year it seems and the Ukrainian command continue to deplete their forces as if it were intentional.
Rob Campbell says
As someone who has studied military history for about fifty years I am aware of the danger of making comparisons between the Ukraine conflict and past battles. I have been tempted to compare some situations to Stalingrad or the Ardennes offensive of 1944. But when I start to think about it I see that this is fruitless because Second World War battles were very different.
Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I can’t remember past battles that have so self-consciously been devoted to logistics and attrition as the Russians are in Ukraine – though some might suggest the latter part of the US Civil War under Grant and Sherman.
MINI GUIDE OF WESTERN
Since russians are so backwards and innefective when it comes to propaganda, this is an attempt to teaching them an introduction of the best Western Propaganda by providing examples. The basic trick is to convert something horrible into something brilliant or viceversa.
Succesful Russian Personality -Prigozhin
(West: Putin Master chief)
Defending Russia from Nazis
(West: Killing Ukranians)
Killing Babies – Abortion
(West: Right over their own body)
Invading a country rich in resources
(West: Providing Freedom)
Mutilation of Kids
(West: Gender Identity)
Losing your shirt over Bakhmut
(West: Unimportant City)
Just make sure not to get polluted.
Vallhalla Rising says
Day 1 or 2 of my Army War College introduction phase included Dr. Steve Gerras’ presentation “THINKING CRITICALLY ABOUT CRITICAL THINKING”
If I remember correctly, Dr. Gerras made the point (in his opening remarks) that “the military talks a lot about critical thinking among its senior officers–but then doesn’t require it or do it” (or something like that). Here is an excerpt from his article that sums it up better yet:
“In a hierarchical organization like the military…we have a hard time having very honest discussions. We don’t want to be politically incorrect. We don’t want to offend people…So we will address problems. Or say something is the concern. When in fact, the real concern is three root causes to the left, and we won’t even have that conversation.”
LTC Davis’ article comparing Bakhmut to Stalingrad is an example of what Dr. Gerras is referring to. Now compare LTC Davis’ OPED with our friend Simplicius76 and his take on assessments:
“I may or may not have proper ‘credentials’ for what I speak—but regardless, I want my truth to be self-evident. Judge me by the accuracy and integrity of my reportage…truth is absolute in the end.”
Your Honor (Larry)…I rest my case lol…
PMC “Wagner” launched an assault on the underground part of the “Bakhmut Azovstal”.
Right now, attack aircraft entered the underground communications of the Artyomovsk Metal Processing Plant (AZOM) and are making their way into the mine.
Fights are going on at a depth of up to 320 (!) meters.
William Williams says
Enemy prisoners were once a source of useful information. It appears that now, with aerial drones, electronic eavesdropping etc., the usefulness of low-ranking prisoners is falling toward, or below, zero.
Curt Nichols says
Another masterful article Mr. Johnson. I have one small digression from you. The Russian General staff has actually shown a huge amount of tactical flexibility. As contrasted to the Ukrainian actions being planned by West Point “woke” warriors engrossed in their theoretical dogma.
If the Ukrainians do patch together an offensive? And throw it in a concentrated arrow at Bakhmut? The Russians would have no problem in falling back, and making the Ukrainians bleed for every inch. While pressing attacks up and down the rest of the weakened lines. Even if they could EASILY hold Bakhmut? If it is “profitable” they will fall back.
The Russians are not fighting for land. They are fighting to bleed the US and NATO and to kill Nazi’s. They can do that from either side of a river.
Go Vlad and deliver the former home of the totally evil Khazars/false Jews and residual Nazis the final ass-whup’n they sooo richly deserve! So sad the productive/parenting portion of the populace bears the brunt, as usual! Just as EVERY previous “promise” was broken by said United SNAKEs Corp, when most convenient/lucrative to, beginning w/ the native American Indians, so it did to the “Rus” beginning w/ the fall of the USSR! This 76 y/o drafted ’67, ‘Nam ’69 VFW learned that what said United SNAKEs Corp has been doing to that portion of what was once the home of the “Rus”, it did in ‘Nam and perhaps every other “bloody-ugly”. It’s all about the transfer of REAL asset/wealth from the productive to the elite financial parasites under cover of the final/greatest distraction . . . WAR.
T. Martin says
From afar, it’s impossible to tell what is going on. At the momenet, who is attacking whom and for what purpose? On a map, simply looking at the Ukraine salient; one could compare it to the Roman legions getting enveloped by Hannibal’s forces at Cannae. Are the Russian’s holding the Ukranians in a fixed position (like Grant held Lee at Richmond?) so they can mount an offensive elsewhere? If Ukraine prevails, will they compare their victory to the 1920 Battle for Warsaw? It goes on and on. In any case, in a war of attrition, IMHO, things don’t bode well for what’s left of Ukraine.
Michel - Louis LONCIN says
“Mais la Russie ne se préoccupe pas de Bakhmut. Bakhmut n’est qu’un élément d’une stratégie et d’un plan militaires plus larges.” Soit l’application de “l’art opératif” russe, cette vision de la guerre développée par Alexandre Svetchine dans les années ’20 et ’30 du XXème siècle … La boucherie de Bakhmut tient à l’obstination de Zelensky ce dont les Russes, ULTRA économe du sang de leur soldats, tirent parti …
Quant à imaginer une défaite russe à Bakhmut analogique avec le désastre allemand de Stalingrad … l’état de flancs russes ne présentent pas la même grave faiblesse et désorganisation que les deux armées roumaines au nord et au sud de Stalingrad … Bijen au contraire : les flancs russes sont puissamment gardés et préservé par l’artillerie … D’autre part, où se trouvent les deux groupes d’armées ukrainiennes qui viendraient frapper et enfermer les Russes dans la ville … ? Nulle part … et ce ne sont aps les réserves de Slaviansk et de Kramatorsk (d’ailleurs alertées par les progrès russes vers Krasni Liman) qui pourraient les … signifier …
Les Russes vont lentement mais sûrement … En outre, ils ne sont pas sous la férule d’un Hitler comme l’étaient les Allemands de von Paulus … C’est bien plutôt les Ukrainiens qui, par Zelensky et sa clique, subissent la même “obsession” du “point de fixation” de Bakhmut !!!
Curt Nichols says
Meanwhile in Africa and much of the global.south there is a dollar shortage and huge dollar demand.
Unfortunately brics has not been able to save the world from dollar hegemony to date.
So many interesting things happening. Hold on tight. Crime, money, security, jobs, wars on a rollercoaster now. It’s all kicking off.
Pakistan can’t buy African tea as no dollar to pay. And no alternative. Jeez. Figure it out fast.
Aramco allowing some countries to pay in local currency.
The plot thickens.
They created the perfect prison. Instead of trying to escape, the inmates run back in at the first sign of difficulties.
George D. O’Neill Jr.: Death of a Myth
Americans need to wake up to the realities of a post-unipolar world before it’s too late.
As we witness the collapse of various mainstream narratives, especially those surrounding the U.S./NATO war with Russia in Ukraine, Americans should begin to reassess their understanding of U.S. national leadership. Most American citizens have no notion of the great disparity between what their government does overseas and the stories they hear from its mouthpieces. As a result, Americans unwittingly support all sorts of foreign operations with little or no understanding of what is actually going on. For years, they have been misled by a non-stop propaganda campaign that is only now beginning to crumble.
We are experiencing the death throes of the United States’ unipolar hegemony over large parts of world. Until citizens begin to realize the magnitude of their government’s policy deceptions, it will become increasingly difficult to understand the United States’ changing global position and adjust to the effects of the growing negative perception of our country held by many people around the world.
More at The American Conservative:
Michael Droy says
“Evgeny Prigozhin, is one hell of a troll.”
Trolling the Ukrainians seems pretty effective. Kherson – a city on the wrong side of the Dnieper that every Ukrainian claimed was strongly pro-Ukraine was a fantastic troll. Many tens of thousands of Ukrainians died over months of trying to take Kherson, and then the remaining Russians pretty much walked away unscathed.
Izium, Kupyiansk, all the places defended with big Casualty ratios in favour of Russia can be seen as trolling Kiev.
And Bakhmut and the other towns where large numbers have fallen defending can also be seen as the successful trolling of Ukraine.
Of course if Kiev had any real willingness to survive they would have withdrawn beyond the Dnieper last summer and just pot shot with Himars ever since. Challenging Russia to go chase Nazis, with high civilian and Russian collateral and fantastic western photo ops.
Ergo – no one wants Ukraine to survive this war – complete mayhem in Ukraine is the GOAL, not a side effect. In other words it is all about sticking a great big chasm just where the Chinese Belt and Road is supposed to reach Europe.
Col Davis – always seems to me that he is very much on message for the Pentagon, but he is useful in being typically one of the first to show that a spell of relative realism is coming.
He is writing what the Pentagon want him to write.
Meanwhile, in the other part of the hybrid war, the Fed is stuck between saving the dollar or saving the financial system. It’s looking like they flinched and are going to try to save the financial system, a bloated, over-leveraged Ponzi scheme on its last legs. Who’ll buy US Treasuries now? SVP failed because they held US Treasuries, now as toxic as mortgage backed securities were 15 years ago.
How do you finance a war with a dollar that will drop like a rock? How do you take on the manufacturing juggernaut China? Answer: you don’t, because you can’t. The Fed appears to be going for Wiemar-style inflation as that’s where this leads. Fighting inflation would give a deflationary depression, hyper-inflation an inflationary one. Ukraine’s problems just got a lot worse this week too. It looks like Europe is getting cut a break, sort of, as the upward pressure on the dollar will stall and the Eurodollar drain might get plugged.
How will the US finance anything from here on out? Nobody will buy treasuries, and printing money won’t work. Maybe they’ll smother Russia and China with worthless paper dollars.
HMS Terror says
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence recently published its Annual Threat Assessment for 2023.
I have not read much beyond the Forward, but if that is indicative of what follows the document is an astonishing indictment of the US’ ability to soberly assess national security issues. The ATA is supposed to be a core national security document that forms the basis of strategic foreign and military policy formation and action. As serious as it gets, but the Forward for 2023 might as well have been written by junior CNN staff.
Maybe the classified version is a wholly different document, but I doubt it.
Stalingrad had little tactical importance to Germany but was very important strategically because oil and lend lease supplies were being shipped up the Volga to the Soviet forces opposite Army Group Centre.
The Russian strategy in Ukraine is becoming apparent with the cauldron at Bakhmut … as soon as Ukraine was put in a position where they had no choice but to de-blockade Bakhmut the Russians started an offensive to pocket Avdiivka … the Russians hold their forces in reserve and don’t attack until they can achieve some sort of tactical leverage that forces Ukraine to move resources around the board at the same time as they broadly attack energy / transportation infastructure making movement difficult.
It looks like the plan is to keep Ukraine chasing it’s tail putting out fires from one end of the front to the other.
Paulo Guerra says
Comparing Bakhmut with Verdum and Stalingrad couldn’t be a bigger nonsense but it is nonsense programmed by the West that is part of the playbook of the US disinformation campaign to try to destabilize Russia and depose the Govt in Moscow. And that was another cannon shot in the foot because I suspect that nothing unites the Russian people more than Stalingrad and the entire Great Patriotic War! But the intention is that what characterized Verdun and Stalingrad was the utter disregard for human life on both sides with a mountain of dead! When today what most characterizes the Russian operation is precisely the value of the lives of Russian soldiers for society and the Govt in Moscow not to be burdened with a large number of KIAs that could really create problems for the Kremlin. Like any society that has not fallen into the degeneration of Ukraine!
I think that today what all normal people agree on is that Russia entered Ukraine without declaring war on the nation, with a very small expeditionary force to force the Kiev regime to comply with the Minsk Accords with the new status of Donbass and the end of ethnic Russian discrimination. As well as its neutrality, of course. In short, ending the existential threat to Russia on its border. And we also have evidence corroborated by more than one source that this objective was not achieved only because the West did not allow it at the last minute! More interested in prolonging the conflict and propaganda campaign to destabilize Russia.
Moment from which, given the growing intervention of the West in the conflict, Russia was forced to mobilize more forces to achieve precisely the same objectives of the 24th of February! And the very number of Russian mobilization in a country the size of Ukraine guarantees that Russia has not made any changes in the scope of its initial objectives. Which could be achieved in two ways. Asking the Duma for much greater mobilization to vaporize Ukraine with a blitzkrieg and hundreds of thousands of Russian dead as many “Couch Generals” continue to demand, i.e. falling into the trap of the West with thousands of funerals in Russia every week as happens today in Ukraine! A war of aggression that would not even garner the support of most of its partners in the global south, starting with China and India. Or methodically demilitarizing the existential threat with all the time in the world on your side as watch Western economies begin to crumble against the West’s plans, as we are all seeing happen! Perhaps because Russia is not only 200 years old and can draw on and consult much more of its own people’s history!
USAF Reaper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWFqa5LdKa8
…so, how’s those “Сhinese spy baloon” precedents work for ya? 😀
there’s official notice: https://t.me/mod_russia_en/6467
⚡️On 14 March 2023 in the morning, the Russian airspace control systems have detected an American MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle flying over the Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation.
◽️ The drone flew with its transponders off, violating the boundaries of the temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace, and published in accordance with international standards.
◽️ Fighter jets of the air defence force on duty scrambled to identify the intruder. As a result of quick manoeuvring around 9.30 a.m. (Moscow time), the MQ-9 drone went into an unguided flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface.
◽️ The Russian aircraft did not use on-board weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle, and returned safely to their home airfield.
I wonder – just an armchair speculation – it could be some EW application.
RuMoD is strangely specific about “no contact happenned”, so tricks like ramming the propeller are probably out of the toolbox here.
However, imagine the drone was forced into some virage that could only be managed if piloted by a human controller. Collision avoidance, put into jet slipstream, anything. USAF pilot starts a sharpturning he is trained to do, and suddenly Russian jammers kick in, removing human control and maybe also faking GPS and altitude signals. Unguided Reaper in the middle of the vriager fails, but Russia made no any focused impact and can enjoy deniability, it was *just a malfunction*, you know.
Just speculating for a fun of it.
Paulo Guerra says
US European Command says one of the two Flankers pissed on the Reaper. From what I understand.
“Frankly, I think it is intellectual laziness to compare those titanic battles to the fighting underway in Bakhmut. “