At last. After six months of surrendering territory, Ukraine is on the move and Russia is retreating. Right? Not so fast. Ukraine tried and failed to penetrate the Russian lines around Kherson. That fizzled and Ukraine suffered enormous casualties. Russia did not.
But wait. Ukraine has now unleashed a new offensive in the north around Kharkov and has made some gains. Gee, what a coincidence. The same week that the United States with NATO convened a Ramstein Conference to assess Ukraine’s progress in the war, a gigantic triumph is being trumpeted on the internet. Russia, finally, is really, really on its heels and on the verge of surrendering the Donbas to the marauding Ukrainian troops. At least that is what Ukraine and its NATO allies are saying and the press is happily pushing that meme.
Now, back to reality. The Russian allied forces that faced the brunt of the Ukrainian attack are not the Russian army’s front line troops. It is a mixture of Donbas militia and Russian national guard. When faced with a Ukrainian force that has more troops it should not be a surprise that the outgunned militia and police would retreat and surrender territory. A tactical retreat is sound military strategy.
But what kind of territory? We are talking rural villages and small cities. These are not critical industrial centers. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I encourage you to read the analysis from Andrei Martyanov, The Saker and Moon Of Alabama:
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/09/as-was-expected.html
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-counteroffensive-success-disaster.html#more
This entire operation has one point–persuade Washington and NATO that Ukraine still has a chance to succeed. But this means ignoring the fact that Kherson, Mariupol, Luhansk and most of Donetsk is still controlled by Russia and Russian allied forces. It also ignores the fact that Ukraine’s concentration of forces in this narrow area (see the maps highlighted by The Saker) creates a ripe target for Russian air, rocket, missile and artillery forces to hit.
My suggestion–hold your water and go lay down on the fainting couch. This is not the German Army at the outskirts of Moscow. This is not Von Paulus rolling into Stalingrad for certain victory. If calling this a tactical defeat makes you feel warm and fuzzy, shout away and cheer Ukraine. What is not being shown, yet, are the horrendous casualties the Ukrainians are suffering.
If this really was a decisive triumph why are foreign journalists being kept from the front line of the attack to record the impressive Ukrainian victory? It is one thing to spin propaganda out from the safe confines of Kiev. It is a whole different ballgame to go to where the battle is taking place and recording what is actually taking place. The dog ain’t barking:
‘The dog that didn’t bark’ is an expression from a Sherlock Holmes mystery. It was an important clue that led to identifying the criminal. It seems that the killer entered and left the estate grounds one night but without the guard dog barking an alarm at the intruder’s presence as expected. From this non—event Holmes reasoned that the dog must have known the killer and that clue led to solving the case.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2004/08/the_dog_that_didnt_bark.html
Where are the barking journalists with their film footage of triumphant Ukrainians? Let us see what the weekend brings.
Scott Ritter, this afternoon, has a similar perspective on the alleged UKR success that I think is spot on. It’s a classic strategic retreat (as you say). Fall back in organized fashion (not a rout) to defensible positions. Let the enemy advance and extend itself. Bring up reserves and then pound the enemy from the front and right and left flanks. Finally, encircle and wipe out surviving en/ forces.
Yep the pro-empire Russia haters can – and will – mock away as either their paymasters or ignorance dictate they do, but time will tell. A couple of weeks tops – sooner I think. IMO, the Russians will inflict additional huge losses on UKR and reverse the meaningless gains within a week.
Also, all this crap about “turning points”, “culmination points”, etc. is ridiculous and anyone using that language is an IO agent or a fool. Such things are only recognized retrospectively, usually not until years after a war has concluded and much analysis has been performed.
Too much of the western cheerleading has been based on a childish – dare I say womanish – petty tit for tat basis. Look here; a blown up Russian tank! The Russians lost their flag ship, the stupid Orks! Ukraine is spanking them. Here’s a lie about Russians shelling a hospital! That will fix them; must burn to have us tell that story. None of that is how real military men look at things. It’s a war. Both sides will suffer losses and setbacks. Never been a war in which that didn’t happen. If you encounter an information source using that approach avoid it. It’s a waste of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBm1n5yNVO4
Kursk 1943 is the most parallel. Bet the NATOland commanders only vaguely know about Kursk
Yes. One of the interesting parallels is that Guderian (the German General – a brilliant armor commander) did not want to attack. He wanted to avoid the battle and stay in a defensive posture in the region. Guderian believed the operation would be too risky, costly and perhaps result in a critical defeat. Hitler actually agreed with him from a purely military perspective. However, Hitler ultimately decided to go ahead with the battle more for reason of what we call today “optics”. In retrospect, the battle turned out to be pivotal with Germany getting the short end of the stick, of course. History repeats? Rhymes?
Modern commentators in NATOstan consider Kursk a German victory.
“Modern commentators in NATOstan consider Kursk a German victory.”
Primarily on the basis that “The Germans lost” less numbers of tanks than the “Soviets”, one of the dangers of linear thinking where quantity is held to be primary as in Soccer, Chess, and Dominoes.
The Duran duo made some interesting points of Putin and top Military brass having been away to the Far East for Vostok drills and Economic conference give bad optics of not being serious with SMO in Ukraine. They also think that Putin is more managerial and stickler with legalese and not being forceful as the Commander in Chief and War time leader. Next few days will be interesting to see how Russia will deal with this set back.
“The emperor states his goals, the generals achieve them. For the emperor to interfere, defeat is certain.” SunTzu.
Putin has stated his goals. Period. His generals are achieving them so he can play the next, bigger game in the East.
I think the boys are wrong. The comment from Jack is closer to the truth I think.
Larry I agree. I thought that Alex was waffling in the latest video he posted. The best advice (from an ex Australian Int analyst): sit back, relax, have a nice cup of tea (or whiskey – my preference is RUM) and wait things out. As with Kherson – a “Coupla days. Beudiful” (you have to be an Australian of a certain age to understand that one).
If your wrong than it’s going to be the Agape of the SMO.
The precedent has been a small expeditionary force of Ukrainian militias and Russian troops supported by aviation blasting a numerically superior Ukrainian army trained and led by NATO….into dust. 60 thousand artillery shells per day creating that dust. Russian intelligence would not miss Ukrainian concentration needed for this attack or any other diversionary operation….and yet the concentration was not destroyed as per usual….so I suspect this operation is being allowed to play out…..I suspect this new army for all intents and purposes is actually a NATO army will over extend and concentrate for strategic bombers and missile forces. Time is on Putin’s side…. every minute is a minute closer to Western countries economically and socially collapsing
I concur, had exactly the same impression from their latest video. they seem to be succumbing to FUD pressure from all the defeatist Telegram channels.
Thank you. I am grateful for being alive and watching the greatest leader of the world, Statesman, and consummate Judo master with keen understanding of the world history and literature, who revived Russia from the ruins for the last 20 years to bring to the Super power status again, leading the way to more Just Multipolar world. He is comparable to the best of Philosopher Kings of yesteryears IMO.
It will be a matter of time that the collective West will be bankrupt from unsustainable debt as well as moral degradation. It will be a similar situation to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Unfortunately there is no Leader to be found anywhere in the West.
I would have taken a strong man like Putin over Obama any day of the week. And sadly you are correct…..there is no leader to be found anywhere in the west.
Well said, Disinfectant. From your lips to God’s ears.
Larry, I too agree – Putin’s focus is the economic war. By all reports, it was a well organized tactical retreat including deploying airborne troops to aid the retreat.
There were signs the flow of NATO weapons to be destroyed in Ukraine was slowing down – presumably it will pick up again, further demilitarizing NATO/Europe.
Naked Capitalism is reporting that shortages in Germany are affecting waste water treatment – so this will be a really cold and shitty winter in Europe.
Yes, Putin’s focus is the economic war, Russian advantage thanks to piss poor (delusional) “planning”by the EU/NATO. Europe looks to degrade to living standards of the the immediate post WW2 period (now larger population and heavily urbanized) – food shortages, energy shortages, sewage pile up, industries shut down, bank runs, inflation, and NO Marshall stabilization plan. Or agree to Russian security demands which will break with the US.
Note, a bank crash in Europe will take out many US banks causing the fed to print another few tens of trillions of dollars in a supply side inflationary environment at a time when the world is fleeing the dollar.
Ukrainian and western leadership think Putin and Russia want to take over Ukraine. This is wrong. Putin has stated his objective is to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. One doesn’t need to occupy parts of Ukraine to demilitarize and denazify it. What Putin needs is for Ukrainian forces to leave population centers and dug in fortifications and expose themselves in offensives where they are more easily targeted and destroyed.
By failing to understand this, Ukraine and western leadership are doing exactly what Russia’s leadership wants, letting Ukraine take land which isn’t heavily populated and out in the open. It makes it easier to target them. Once those forces are destroyed, Russia will give the land to the people who want to live and be at peace with Russia. Russia will help them to defend their homes and support them, not discriminate and kill them like Ukrainian forces we’re doing to the people in the Donbass before Russia intervened.
Penso que seja isso mesmo, incluindo o fato de que à Russia interessa ADMINISTRAR o tempo para a chegada do elemento estratégico na mesa dos generais: O Sr. winter.
Saudações e agradecimento a Larry pelas informações. #TMJ
I too was surprised by the shallowness of that Duran argument and let it be known that Putin deals with the political side of this multi-faceted war while delegating its operational side to the more qualified General Staff that plans the whole war. I have sensed a pretty strong sense of panic in the Duran whom I believe to have been intoxicated by the adversary’s intense internet propaganda.
I have heard from Stratpol and Donbass Insider that in actuality the allied forces began pulling out of their positions in the Balakleya-Izium region earlier and started redeploying forces South to Donbass in order to strengthen the forces operating in the Kramatorsk area in preparation of the essential and central assault on that city. This move was rendered urgent because of a serious shortage of water in Donetsk. It is said that people get water once every three days after the massive destruction operated by Ukrainian forces on the water system to disrupt supplies of water magnifying by their actions the general drought of this summer. The important fact here is that it has become urgent to expedite things in Donbass in preparation for winter as water is essential for heating people of Donbass.
If there was social media and minute by minute updates to the populace in World War II people response the the progress would have given the leaders a headache. Advances of this scale went back and forth all the time on both the Eastern and Western fronts.
All this talk about who is more tactically capable, has the better troops a.s.o is in the end not decisive. Modern war is about industrial capability. The Wehrmacht was the best fighting force in WWII but the material basis of Germany was puny compared to the combined material capabilites of the USSR and USA. This war will be decided by the fact that Russia has the military-industrial complex necessary for a land war. The US doesn´t anymore after offshoring to Asia. Germany and Japan would probably still be capable to creat an armaments industry on short notice. But Japan already backtracked and Germany will go down this winter without Russian gas. I hope and pray that Russia will have the wisdom to not become overly triumphant after winning this war. With a different goverment in Kiev and Ukraine forswearing Nato there might be hope for a future without more war.
Tom,
Check out the Russian-Chinese peace offering from Dec 2021. that’s their war aims
Hi Larry. Thanks again for your insights. I think the following comment on the Ukraine advance from Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat Regiment tells us all we need to know about what is really going on: “What is happening today was planned. It is a tactical ploy, which helped us to pull all their forces and means into the territory where it is convenient for us to fight them. If anyone thinks that the Russian leadership, the MoD leadership, was unaware that the enemy was gathering forces, then those people understand nothing about politics or the military.”
Spot on. I find it difficult to believe this was an intelligence failure. I also recognize that the Russian Generals are not going to publicize their plans. What we do know for certain is that Russia has been moving forces to that area for a few days.
Hi again Larry. Again agree. A couple of things I’d like to add to the discussion:
1. How many times in the last 250 years has the Russian/Soviet Army fought over the same ground? A rhetorical question really. They know the battlefield. They know what works and what doesn’t.
2. I’m sure that the current Russian commanders (at all levels) will have made themselves very familiar with the old Red Army General Staff studies – especially the ones dealing with the battles in the are they are fighting such as “The Battle for the Dnepr: The Red Army’s Forcing of the East Wall, September-December 1943 (actually they make interesting reading).
3. “Maskirovka” – “A set of procedures designed to confuse, mislead, and camouflage oneself from the enemy”
The Russians/Soviets are past masters at it. Read an interesting comment in a Journal Article (Slavic Military History I think it was) that “maskirovka” was not only meant to confuse your enemy – but also your allies (here the author was referring to the western allies), and everyone else who didn’t really “need to know” at the time – OR IN THE FUTURE.
A good example for understanding the concept as used by the Soviets is the General Staff study on Operation Bagration.
Since the start of the SMO I have argued that the Russians are extensively using “maskirovka” – ie the 46 km long traffic jam pointing like a lance towards Kiev.
Great commentary. Thanks for the reminders.
Full text of “DTIC ADA211726: Soviet Operational Deception: The Red Cloak”
https://archive.org/stream/DTIC_ADA211726/DTIC_ADA211726_djvu.txt
Soviet Operational Deception: The Red Cloak, by Lieutenant
Colonel Richard N. Armstrong, examines the role of operational
deception in the Red Army’s World War II victories. This
Combat Studies Institute special study focuses on operational-
level deception planning, allocation of resources, and deception
measures used during buttle in the Lvov-Handomierz operation
of July 1944. Lieutenant Colonel Armstrong’s insightful study
demonstrates the clear connection between the wise use of de¬
ception and Soviet battlefield success.
The other thing is that Ukrainians have probably now exposed significant numbers of their remaining ‘good’ troops and their location. These forces have no air cover, very limited artillery and limited logistics.
I think we are missing one very important point, RUF is duty bound to protect all areas under their control, we all know what happened at Bucha, the UKes act like Sonderkommando behind the lines, if there’s a massacre in any of the taken areas, it will be on Russia’s hands.
So you are arguing that the guy who pulls the trigger is not responsible for the murder – it was the enabler – such as the gun salesman or the bully? So who was responsible for Columbine? The teacher who allowed bullying? The US police are duty bound to protect all Americans? So all murders are the police’s direct fault? Gimme a break.
I agree, also the Ukrainians in the other Russian held areas will be asking some serious questions now.
Just because you wish something to be true does not make it so.
Izyum was very important for the Russian effort to take Slavyansk and rest of the Donetsk oblast. They would not abandon it lightly.
All current information indicates that the Russians got outplayed pretty badly and withdrew to avoid complete encirclement and capture of their soldiers.
As I wrote, please provide the links to the Ukrainian and western journalists who are Izyum celebrating the incredible Ukrainian victory. If they genuinely control the area then it is safe to bring in journalists.
We’ll have to wait for those a couple more days.
The area is still a war zone with many Russian troops either encircled/bypassed or retreating.
The Russian Defense Ministry itself is admitting that they are withdrawing the troops from this whole area. Only, of course, they are calling it a regrouping.
This is from RT.
The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed the withdrawal of troops from multiple locations across Ukraine’s Kharkov region. The development comes amid a offensive in the area by Kiev.
“In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian military said in a statement on Saturday.
You know nothing of military planning.
Coming from you it is a compliment.
Do you still, in your “expert” opinion, think this Russian retreat is just a part of some elaborate trap for Ukrainian forces ?
Yes, I do. It is a tactical retreat and does not change the strategic picture at all. I welcome you to make that case.
Unfortunately the “collaborators” in the towns that are being “tactically” given up are facing a horrible fate in the hands of the Ukrainian army.
Likely nearly all civvies were quietly evacuated long before
This takes time and preparation, which they didn’t have.
I have heard of some evacuation of civilians from Kupiansk though.
You must be on some great Hallucinating
drugs.
Here is another excellent take
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
Only fools rush in to the valley of death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPTvqNuqiPY
You guys are so consumed with offering the unpopular opinion that is being shunned by the western mainstream media, that you’ve created an echo chamber of yourselves.
Russia has lost it’s initiative in the war already a few weeks/months ago. The arussian army is tired, atteited and demoralized, as well as the public.
The Ukranians on the other hand are motivated more than ever , army and public alike. They has superiority of 2-3 times in personnel over the russians, and are enjoying short supply lines and modern precision weapons.
The russions have no air superioritt, their airforce is nowhere to be seen.
And what about those kaliber missiles? Heavn’t heard of them for a while. Are they depleted?
There is evidence of tanks, artillery and AA weapons from WWII being abandoned by the Russians.
If you havn’t noticed. The Russians are losing this war.
Your hate for the west is bliniding you. You have decided to side with a tirant and speak your wishful thinking, you just camouflage it as military analysis
Troll, I’m letting your comment go so that you can receive the literary beating you so richly deserve.
Think of Ilan as a jester, come to raise a little smile with his antics while serious people think on weighty matters. Although I fear within a day or two, all the bells will have fallen off his hat.
The troll’s post is so blindingly stupid that she doesn’t deserve a response. For example, she confuses the WW2 equipment as abandoned by the Russian Army, and is so ignorant that she doesn’t realize most of the fighting is being done by Donbass Ukrainians who do use whatever military equipment is available.
Supply lines also –
Kiev‘s NATO supplies come over a 2.000km route.
The Allies supply lines are a 200km route.
Rare savagery from Larry, I like it.
The Poles have been mighty uppity lately. They fancy a sizable slice of western Ukraine and take over leadership of the EU from Germany….only they don’t have much money. So they go around suing all the others around them.
Their latest gambit is to sue Germany for Polish atrocities against Jews in WW2. It will be good if some of these Poles are produced as players in the current hostilities. They have been itching for a Smart experience for sor while now.
…Samart experience for some while now.
“The russions have no air superioritt, their airforce is nowhere to be seen.” Well, no wonder the russion airforce can’t fly: no superioritt! The Russian airforce, on the other hand, is operating, despite lacking this magical superioritt substance. But my hatred of the transgender west is bliniding me; go ukrane – save us from tyrants and tirants.
Had to do some digging but I found a picture of Ilan: https://imgflip.com/i/6swg6t
Great “find”, hahaha!
LOL! Excellent find.
Im giving my two cents overview of the situation. Since my factory is in poland i can’t stress enough how the polish nationalists disregard their ukro counterparts. Now that the west is under polish administration i wish all the well to the EU to manage the undergoing mess )
The south west is in the hands of the hungarian and romanian. The east is russian for good. Whats left ? Kiev and a failed midget state with no industry, a lot of hookers and oligarchs. Again, best to the EU to hemorrhage money there.
Now, lets assume that NATO psycho ops is real. Ukros regain Crimea and the dombass. Hurra ! But franckly i long for this type of situation where guerilla and terrorism would stem from russian population )))
Anyway, i have just entertain myself with a clip where 5 foreigners were slapping hands in a humvee rolling to the front line. The captain was filming this bonding time with his gopro and all of a sudden massive bullet pouring from Wagner. All dead but the gopro
“Russia has lost it’s initiative in the war already a few weeks/months ago. The arussian army is tired, atteited and demoralized, as well as the public.”
Funny, the Russians are saying the same thing about Ukrainians. Both sides are talking trash about the other as one would expect. The reality is there are both malcontents and fanatical optimists on both sides of every war ever fought.
“The russions have no air superioritt, their airforce is nowhere to be seen.”
Yet the biggest complaint from returning mercenaries is Russian SU-25’s and helicopter gunships attacking them day and night. Just last week SU-34’s were bombing the crap out of pocketed Ukrainian forces in Kherson and those missile attacks hitting all over Ukraine for months …. where do you think they come from?
If you didn’t know Ukraine had formidable air defences in the form of Soviet SAMs at the start of the war. The integrated system is down but individual units are still active and they stay hidden watching passively. F-15, F-16, F-18, A-10’s, B-52’s would all be vunerable to these SAMs
“There is evidence of tanks, artillery and AA weapons from WWII being abandoned by the Russians.”
Abandoned by Russians or militias? Being a frugal carpenter of a certain vintage I can tell you with certainty that a WW2 era hammer can drive a nail just as good as a $200 titanium death stick and if you looked at the work you would have no idea which hammer drove the nail. A less optimistic observer would be dismayed that a T-64 outranges the best NATO ATGM’s by a couple of KM’s
“And what about those kaliber missiles? Heavn’t heard of them for a while. Are they depleted?”
You tell me … the Russians don’t seem to copy me on reports pertaining to munition stockpiles … if you have intelligence on Russian missile stockpile please share.
“If you havn’t noticed. The Russians are losing this war.”
Did I miss something? Is Moscow surrounded? last I looked the war was still being fought on Ukrainian soil and other than a few missile strikes Russian territory has not been breached.
“Your hate for the west is bliniding you. You have decided to side with a tirant and speak your wishful thinking, you just camouflage it as military analysis”
Kettle here … is that you pot?
The Ukronazis and their American/NATO handlers are going to be buried in the dust bin of history, the Empire of Lies is a walking dead man.
Spoken like a true leftist, comrade….
The numbers simply don’t support your claims, Russia is still responsible for most of the engagements, so they clearly still have the initiative.
Your second claim that Ukraine is more motivated than ever would need us all to ignore the same reality that you’re ignoring. The fact that a country with superior numbers, I’m quoting you, ” They has superiority of 2-3 times in personnel over the russians” can’t remove 200k Russians. We can put this another way since you brought up the entire country of Ukraine. 36 million people can’t get 200k people out of their country.
Ukrainian MOD can answer your question on the Kaliber, but you aren’t going to like the answer.
You claim Russia is losing, while ignoring that the West is having to continuously pump money and weapons into Ukraine. You also completely ignore that Ukraine can’t even train it’s own troops on it’s soil.
I do hate all that tranny woke shit, post modernism, socialism, MMT, etc etc, but it has nothing to do with a country of 36 million getting the shit kicked out of it by 200k people.
“..This entire operation has one point–persuade Washington and NATO that Ukraine still has a chance to succeed…..”
Yes – on another topic;
Why aren’t NATOland pols putting price caps on the Oil and Gas now being sold into Europe by Exxon, BP, and Shell Oil ? Exxon, BP, and Shell are charging 10-20 times higher prices versus Gazprom.
That’s THE most important question of this conflict so far. “Halas, poor Yorick” its answer is deeply engraved in the system. Remember one thing : if you wanna know who really command you, look at who you’re not allowed to criticize.
Fascinating that no one in Europe is suggesting putting price caps on the high priced gas and oil coming from the Oil Majors.
Fascinating
I have been reading quite a lot from you… years ago under an other sky
First comment here here.
– the multiple siege of city had been a slow process, making progress but not conclusive
– it seems to me we are witnessing an acceleration of successive events that can be qualified as “war of movements”
not exacly Drole de guerre then blitzkrieg, but a little bit similar .
Question: how did the Russians found the recipe to entice the Ukraine AF to fall in the offensive trap, considering their lack of heavy stuff ?
Larry I agree with you completely, as far as the military operational things are concerned. However there is another side to this, the PR side. Russians really dropped the ball here.
I’m not talking about the PR in western media, I’m talking about PR with the Russian people and the pro-Russian people in Ukraine. Tactical withdrawl from a town might make perfect military sense, but by allowing Ukrainians to re-take the town, Russians allowed bad things to happen. Ukrainians are now killing civilians who in their minds “collaborated” with the Russians. Just like in Bucha. Ukro-nazis are slaughtering pro-Russian civilians in the newly captured town.
This is extremely bad PR in the eyes of Russian people and of pro-Russian Ukrainian people. Putin and his staff really dropped the ball. Let’s hope they learn from this mistake and not allow the mind-stumpingly evil Ukraine nazis to slaughter civilians by not allowing Ukies to retake towns and cities.
The Russians have been encouraging the civilians in these areas to evacuate since the Ukie offensive began. They have set up border crossing support at the Russian border to provide assistance for these people.
This is war. Bad things just can’t be avoided, but they can be mitigated to an extent – and Russia is doing just that.
For Gods sake. It’s a real war.
Not THE AMERICAN NARRATIVE OF WINNING THE PR CRAP . This is the trouble with todays goldfish attention spans.
America fights / controls/ supervises wars as you would operate a Ponzi scam.
The last war America won was the Pacific Campaign in WW2. The US Navy and Marine Corp flogged the fuck outta the Japs , island after island. No other military on Earth could have don’t it.
“Where did the British Empire go ?……where did who go !”
Got it.
If people with military opinions, had military service, this would be one lonely little blog.
The Russian General staff have been micro managing the SMO from the rope a dope kick off in February.
Don’t lose any sleep over a shitty, empty village on the chess board.
PS : google photos of Transvestite US Navy Admiral, that is the military culture behind this slaughter.
When Ukraine Nazis are shelling a Operating Nuclear Power Plant (daily) and some Uki General wants to start lobbing nukes around Europe.
It’s too much for the human unit.
In a couple of months everyone is going to be debating if skinny Germans freeze to death faster that fat Germans. Horror of horrors you cannot eat your neighbours if there is no gas to defrost the body.
So looking forward to the culinary comments. From closet cannibals.
I’m beginning to understand that the average person looking at maps seems to believe that if there are lines drawn, then every linear foot of the line – for hundreds of miles – has troops defending it and also, I suppose, that troops are equally distributed along the line. So they imagine that if the Ukies pierced the line, then they won a great battle and can do that anywhere….or some silliness like that. The media and politicians encourage this sort of misguided perception. In reality, the line is merely connecting dots, with the dots being the strong points in terms of troops concentrations. If and when the Ukies actually assault and take some major “dots” along the line, then it will be a true counter offensive. I do not think we will see that though; maybe just an attempt that is suicidal.
PR only matters to Liberals, since for them forms and definitions shape reality instead of the other way around. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
It’s a very western thing to think that PR is more important than operational security.
Sometimes in history, you just can’t help bad luck. In this case, the sad death of Queen Elizabeth leaves no space for Ukrainian victories in the MSM and public consciousness. Alas, even the most lavishly funded PSYOPs are at the mercy of external events.
In Australia this evening, one might remain blissfully ignorant that there is any fighting occurring in Ukraine, let alone the two biggest offensives that the Ukrainian forces have managed to date. The PR folks in Kiev and DC must be really pissed at the impossibility of generating any interest to their “news”.
I didn’t want to believe that Russian troops have poor coordination with airforce and artillery. That surveillance is subpar. After all, it is more than six months from the start. They had enough time to remedy the situation. But inertia is doing it’s thing. And Russia is all about inertia. To change something in Russia, horrible things have to happen. They seem to do everything as they did in history – the hard way.
IS UKRAINE STEAMROLLING RUSSIA?
Well according to RAND in 2019 it is not “highly likely”.
Mr. Lenin remarked that the “capitalists” will sell you the rope with which to hang them, whilst the present “crop” will give you the ropes for free.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/09/09/its-not-okay-for-grown-adults-say-ukraine-invasion-was-unprovoked/
I really don’t get the Nato tactics here. Surely to keep this war going they need to withdraw all the Nazis 50 miles from the front line and then just shell civilians. Ukraine will be chaos, the Russians really frustrated leading to true or false stories of Russians shelling towns, the war can last forever, and Europe can never go back to buying Russian gas or trading with the Russia/China block. Which is pretty much the whole purpose of the war.
Russia must be delighted at the chance to de-militarise Ukraine without having to chase all over E Ukraine looking for the bastards.
“If this really was a decisive triumph why are foreign journalists being kept from the front line of the attack to record the impressive Ukrainian victory? ”
Loads of reasons:
1. (well is isn’t a triumph but you know that)
2. it is a hugely vulnerable open spaced gain of territory – you can’t allow journalists in there!
3. There are reportedly a lot of “foreign language speaking mercenaries” amongst the Ukrainian forces, perhaps 20%, imagine what happens if they start casual conversations with those western journalists that aren’t “security correspondents for the BBC”.
4. The Nazis will search for collaborators – even if Ze asks them not to. There will be some very unpleasant murders and torture of civilians in Balakliya. No problem if these are revealed only in the reliable Russian reporting, but in dodgy unreliable western sources it would be a nightmare.
5. It seems to me that most western journalists have stopped reporting – that is they go to cities to report on aggressive Russian attacks on civilians but then refuse to confirm Kiev stories. They are on a silent strike. Some even interview wounded in hospitals!!
Sepp Dietrich’s advance, did quite well until they ran out of fuel, UKR won’t run out of fuel of course, but like Sepp Dietrich’s advance airpower will suddenly become a major factor and not in their favour.
It’s a forlorn hope.
Russia has never made a claim re: Kharkiv. The SMO was designed to liberate LDNR and make a land bridge to Crimea.
All other territory in Ukraine is disposable to the Russian military, as we saw back in March and April when the move towards Kiev was abandoned and May when land was traded for time in, yes, Kharkiv province.
I.e. It’s another withdrawal to more defensible lines for Russia/LDNR and another PR win for Ukraine and the West.
BTW, we need new terminology, it’s not Russia v. Ukraine at this point.
Russia/LDNR = Eurasia and NATO/Kiev = Oceania?
eurasia? oceania ? (yeh i know its “1984”)
more simply, the pirate seafarers are getting their boats burnt by the landlubbers?
maritime and all that?
let it be. pull it all down. end the evil piracy of this inverted clown world of the west.
i have a dream… ; )
NATOland versus Eurasia
Or
NATOland versus 87% of the world
While it is too early to affirm that the Russians anticipated, gave the Ukrainians the rope, invited the Ukrainians to form a self-made cauldron, that seems a better bet than the Ukrainians are now on the offensive and Russia is on the ropes: Fog of War. But all fogs clear. The official maps from both sides show a prophylactic shaped cauldron – Not where I would want my troops to be.
The real tragedy (a self caused calamity, in this case, by the Ukrainians) is the hate and sorrow between Ukrainians and Russians that will last for half a century, maybe much longer. For every killed or maimed soldier, there are 5 or more relatives or friends who will grieve, many will hate for decades. Even if it was all over tomorrow, the relationships between Russia and the Ukraine, and the rest of the world, have suffered, and will continue to suffer – significantly, detrimentally. In War, as in court, and fight, “one side loses. The other side loses more. ” This is a time of, the beginning of great sorrow
It is a time of great sorrow!
I have worked with Russians, I have worked with Ukrainians, both in a professional capacity and environment. They are extremely intelligent, talented, dedicated to their profession.
I see this war with great sorrow because the civilians suffer and the ukrainian military (and civilians) have been propagandized. (This excludes the nazis from galecia who are scum with a murderous hatred for all of mankind and the cokeheads who are in immediate control of them.)
To see Ukraine destroyed, and the blood bath with the ukraine military (excluding azov type murderers) is gut wrenching. However, the Russians will prevail at no doubt costs to them in lives.
My main focus at the moment is what is the situation in the villages and cities which have been overrun by the Ukrainian attacks. As we have seen in Bucha,, the scum will come and engage in murderous reprisals against anyone with a Russian connection or sympathy.
I believe and hope (I know hopium) that the Russian military has assisted those civilians to evacuate. However the Russian population in those areas have a substantial percent of very old and infirm people who no ability to move and evacuate.
This war is gut wrenching on so many levels while the scum in brussels, london, wash dc and the bankers in the city of london sit back and arrange and direct more blood baths, destruction, and carnage.
Col. MacGregor, not a hot head, said on Tucker Carlson that some in Washington are now seriously considering a “limited” nuclear option: https://www.bitchute.com/video/Vzv9lLn0yICL/
The neocons have been pushing that from the start.
Cooler, smarter heads repeatedly explain there is no limited nuclear war.
They take that genie out of the bottle & poseidon will greet DC.
Where is poseidon these days, anyway? Last I read, Russia turned it loose & nobody knew where it was headed or lurking.
In my opinion the Russians became over-confident and they didn’t see anything coming, just because they didn’t look. Satellites saw nothing, aircraft saw nothing, drones saw nothing, intelligence networks reported nothing ? Don’t give me that !
Actually some Russian generals became so infatuated with themselves that they were already planning the Victory Parade in Moscow, and the Ukrainians took them completely by surprise. 30,000 men were coming and these guys didn’t see a single one of them! Sheer incompetence and laziness, that’s how I call it.
Having said that, I still firmly believe ( and hope ) that Russia will take adequate measures to stop this potentially dangerous situation and will finally emerge as victor of this war. But Putin should get rid of some generals. A few one-way tickets to Siberia should do the trick.
Putin is much more a softie than people realize. He still tolerates incompetence and corruption. He really does not want a war.
He needs to realize the nuke deterrent has deterred f all.
Either all in or out. Escalation dominance is looking stronger on NATO side as they have a massive build up on polish border and in Romania.
How’s the weather in Langley?
The information on Moon of Alabama is old, from 09.09. Something’s wrong today. An order came directly from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to withdraw all troops from the Kharkiv area. In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup the troops in the Balakleya and Izyum areas to increase efforts towards Donetsk. Russian troops began to leave Kupyansk and Izyum, without attempting to fight the Ukrainians in the cities. This is a surrender of the towns without a fight and a withdrawal of the same type as in the spring north of Kiev from Buchi and the surrounding area.
There is a high degree of likelihood that the Russian army is:
– Drawing the last 30,000-50,000 combat-capable (not cannon fodder Z-elenski is grabbing on the streets in Kiev) out of Kharkov, and
– Inviting them into another cauldron. Leaving Balikleya and Izyum is basically to give them enough rope to, well, eliminate them once they are stretched along a long-enough “sleeve” (similar to what happened to 10,000 Uki troops in the South a few day ago.
Two interviews corroborate this hypothesis – one with Apti Allaudinov, the commander of the Chechen “Ahmat” Special Forces unit (see the link and the translation below) and another one with Kolmogorov, the head of the “Troy” Donbas militia combat unit (former colonel of the Russian marine corps). Though not clear if sharing this publicly is worth it to pacify easily panic-stricken laymen and risking the neo-Nazis learning about this at the same time…
Kolmogorov:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrygowJTGTY
(in Russian, from 26th min to 45th min).
Apti Allaudinov:
https://zen.yandex.ru/media/soloviev/ia-ne-znal-chto-balakleia-stala-stolicei-rossii-komandir-specnaza-ahmat-o-voine-s-nato-i-strategii-rf-631ccc469150aa740b3e10a2
Using Yandex-Translate – https://translate.yandex.com/?lang=ru-en:
It was known that the enemy was preparing such a serious blow (RockTime: meaning the counter-offensive 30 km south of Kharkov). It was necessary to assume in the minds of the enemy such a position that we have neither the strength nor the means to repel this blow. But naturally, in order to create this illusion, in principle, the troops were completely removed from this direction, just as the Central Military District was removed from our direction absolutely calmly. We knew that it was being prepared. Naturally, we were ready. Yes, at this stage we have some losses, but they are not as heavy as our enemy has.
I want to note, I have already said this, that a force of more than 30 thousand people cannot appear from nowhere and go nowhere. Naturally, the leadership of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense has fully calculated according to the plan how much it is necessary to stretch the enemy so that we can systematically destroy him. You can already see on the Internet and on all the news that our units are being massively transferred in this direction. I would like to note that units from the Chechen Republic have already arrived there in the same way.
I’ll tell you, as I always say, the outcome of one battle does not decide the outcome of the war. We have been hitting the enemy, taking cities for 7-8 months, but, as you can see, we have continued to do this work systematically until now. And, probably, in order for us not to have too many losses, we would have to continue doing this work for a very long time. So it was decided that it was necessary to let the enemy, on the contrary, move out from their settled echeloned positions in Kharkov in order for him to stretch out under the illusory opinion that no one would be able to answer him.
I have said this before that we are not at war with Ukraine, we are at war with the troops of the NATO bloc. Today, this so-called counteroffensive is led directly by representatives of England and America. This whole war, which we see today in a new format, it is completely manually regulated by representatives of the Ministries of Defense of England and America.
Let’s see what happens with you. Nothing terrible is happening. To be honest, I was very surprised by the reaction to the fact that they took Balaclay. My surprise is caused by the reaction. I didn’t know that Balakleya had become the capital of the Russian Federation. They took Balaclay, and that’s it, and that’s what Russia will do next? They retreated from Balakleya with battles in order not to suffer heavy losses. But then the question is: did our defenders run away, abandoning their positions? No. It was a very correct tactical decision. Let everyone know that we won’t lose either way, it’s a matter of time before we win. Give professionals the opportunity to work out their direction so that they show what they were waiting for, what they were preparing for. You and I will see the result.
It should be noted that the enemy has already suffered losses of more than five thousand people in one direction these days, and about 2.5-3 thousand people have suffered losses in our direction. In 3 days we have inflicted such damage on him. The further he moves away from his fortified positions, the more logistical problems he has, it is necessary to deliver ammunition, food, fuel. Today it is stretched as far as possible. Already, as I understand it, having understood the very trick that the leadership of the Russian Federation in the General Staff came up with, the enemy stopped, he does not want to go any further. But what he has done is enough for us. Then we will work systematically, destroying this enemy.
Nothing supernatural, again, did not happen. Do people who have watched films at least elementary, do not understand that there has always been such a thing in the war that he retreated somewhere, let the enemy enter the trap, get surrounded, get destroyed. As I understand it, they have absolutely no such concept. There should be no panic moods, because, again, I say, Russia’s power is so great that all countries of the world consider it. If the power of this state were not as great as you think, this NATO bloc would not have fought with us openly, throwing off masks, with all its forces and troops. Today they are forced to fight under a screen, pretending that they are not fighting themselves, but the fact remains that even in this case we inflict the heaviest damage on them and force them to give us the liberated territories. Then there will be exactly the same picture, you just have to wait and see it all.
Akhmat is strength, Russia is power, Donbass is invincible. Don’t worry about anything! We have not gone anywhere, we are in our positions, everything is fine.
Now Americans are working and directing the work of the armed forces of Ukraine, all in English.
The more pleasant it will be to destroy the maximum number of British and American soldiers and professionals, so-called. It gets more fun at the game, that’s all. This is a chess game. In this chess game, the winner is the one who will be able to make the right moves, which will be calculated much ahead. So it’s all good. I say hello to the Americans, the British and other foreigners, because they are unlikely to leave here.
There is still a lot of the male population of Ukraine, because NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian. And it is unlikely that NATO will stop until the last Ukrainian dies. Ukrainians themselves do not want to come to their senses, they do not understand the very tragedy of their situation. Ukraine will cease to exist after this war ends. This is no longer our fault, but the fault of the same NATO bloc.
A balloon weakens as it extends. Russia did a lot with few troops.
Now it’s showing as a needle has been put through the balloon.
Will it is pop, deflate slowly or bounce back.
From my limited military experience I know mobilisation is no quick trick especially when on defence with time pressure.
There is no question Russia is retreating and can’t mobilise fast enough.
Yes it can counter but so can the ukranians turn needle into palm and cut supply lines.
They have latest us communication intercept and jamming and drones and can mess up comms in a certain radius.
The attack has a mass of NATO top troops in it and they are good and not stupid.
I think they understand cauldron and they are clearly going to counter it. Will the counter work who knows.
But the Russian aren’t sitting popping dicks in a barrel. They are retreating. The offensive will have anti aircraft. Drones chasing the retreat.
This is not a baby war.
I added a comment but it didn’t show up, why?
Kharkiv-Izium losses: Reminiscent of the Battle of the Bulge?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgU5PRc9glw&ab_channel=ImperialWarMuseums
The Bulge did not get more than about a quarter of the way to the objective of Antwerp, and it did not endure very long.
In my view, the strategic flaw of many that was most responsible for Germany’s inability to succeed was that its tanks ran out of fuel. Consider how tight motor fuel is in the Ukraine.
Also consider that just as with the thrust in Kherson last week, the Ukrainian spearhead is not only surrounded, but concentrated in a way that renders every Russian rocket or howitzer round far more effective in Russia’s objective of killing as many Ukrainian soldiers as it takes to bring things to a screeching halt.
I am marking my calender for end September- if Russia has not reversed the NATO/Ukrainian momentum by then…tactical nukes and/or full scale mobilization is Russia’s only option. Looks like NATO/Ukraine have plenty of manpower/materials, so the battlefield appears to be less one sided. The clock is ticking..
Larry,
In terms of journalists on front lines I think that is unrealistic in this kind of war, it’s not a flat track where they can be protected. Their absence proves nothing in my view.
This is also a serious offensive especially if they replicate it along the line.
Russia is really caught here, retreating with no mines or iud to slow the enemy, it looks a mess and the civilians in this area are going to suffer severely.
There is no good spin on what is happening for Russia.
The Russian SMO was going ok amf they seemed lulled into a false sense of security.
Against NATO you are either all in or you can get slapped. And Russia just got slapped.
Either they scale and commit properly or they have a very big problem on their hands.
You’re welcome to your view but, if you’ve watched RT, they’ve had journalists on the frontlines in all the crucial battles. It was very clear during Mariupol. So you’re wrong.
It’s even worse. Russian financial powers that have a lot of influence on Putin, (directly control Putin), have declared a stop to further war west of the Dnieper. This war is likely to end with the liberation of the two republics in the Donbas. The Kremlin is again talking about negotiating with Zelensky, and Russia’s advance is apparently on hold. Far from treating NATO countries as enemies, the Kremlin is still energising Europe to the extent that Europe will allow. Senior Russian officials talk as if proving that Russia is a reliable energy supplier is more important than the lives of its soldiers fighting Western-trained and equipped Ukrainian troops whose weapons are supplied by European countries whose arms industries run on Russian energy. It makes me very sad to see that tens of thousands of young Russian boys have given their lives for basically NOTHING.
Larry , whats your opinion on the massive number of polish mercs (as stated by RU MOD they are the most numerous mercs on the ground in ukraine)
might it be there’s complete units of polish military ‘sheep dipped’ into mercenari companies who trained as one and fully equipped with knowledge of both warsaw pact and NATO equipment ?
i remember givi and motorola said they encounter lots of polish mercs during theri battle in donetsk airport back then. Special forces type whose sniper units took a toll on the donbass militias. I think the donbass militia bombarded the polish mercs and buried them in the rubble of donetsk airport , as claimed by givi and motorola back then.
RE: charles says
10 September 2022 at 02:31
buntalanlucu says
11 September 2022 at 04:31
Speculation is a re-iterative process of self-indoctrination, and hence not always productive to dispel.
I’m taking a break from thinking about all of this for a while. It gives me a headache at this point. I have other interests. Just wanted to share my humble and likely stupid summation of current events for what little they may be worth. Apologies for the long comment. Take care and looking forward to checking in here in a month or so.
Tet (the lunar new year) 1968, communist Vietnamese jumped off what would become forever known as the “Tet Offensive”. They simultaneously besieged the Marines at Khe San and attacked across a broad front from the DMZ down through the Southern provinces, capturing and occupying key cities like Hue. A small team of communist sappers even made it right into the US embassy in Saigon. Americans were shocked by the suddenness, ferocity and initial tactical successes of the communist forces. However, there was never a chance of a communist strategic victory in any of that. The communists could never hold what they gained. The communists had hoped that the South Vietnamese military would be demoralized and switch sides. That didn’t happen. They also hoped to break the resolve of the US, and in that, they were somewhat successful. It was not the resolve of the US military that broke. Rather, it was the resolve of the American people at home. In fact, the offensive achieved no lasting purely military goal whatsoever and, indeed, the communists were removed from everything they had captured, mostly within a couple of weeks, though longer in some instances, suffering great losses of men and materiel in the process. Their losses were so great that the ability to fight anything resembling a real battle against the US was severely diminished for a few years.
However, the American public was shocked by Tet. They had been told the US was winning the war and had the situation was under control. They couldn’t understand how the communists could pull off such a massive attack; never mind that all gains were erased. The people decided they had been lied to and war was unwinnable. Support for the war eroded to where it was no longer politically viable to pursue. America began a drawdown and the communists in the North utilized that period of time resting, refitting, training new troops waiting for the day when the Americans would go home and they could send their fresh new army South to final victory.
I think the current Ukrainian “counter-offensive” is like a poor man’s Tet. It is totally politically and not militarily motivated. Ukraine had to show the west it was still capable of supporting the narrative that it would be taking the fight to the Russians, but for funding and weapons. They need to ensure that the $billions keep flowing, that Germans freezing to death and Europe going cold, broke and hungry this winter is worth it. The attack will achieve no lasting military gains. It cannot. All that has happened is Ukrainian troops broke through a sector lightly defended by Donbas militia and Russian home guard (basically like military police tasked with maintaining civil order and not Russian infantry). They created a narrow corridor for resupply to flow through (Russians will eventually smash Ukie resupply). The “Russians” fell back in good order to defensible positions. They avoided unnecessary casualties. Now Russian reinforcements are moving into the area. The reinforcements are real Russian combat arms. They will stop the Ukrainian forward momentum, begin attacks from the flanks and envelope and destroy any Ukie units unable to retreat the same way they came in. Like the failed Ukie Kherson offensive, this one will also result in lots of dead Ukies plus lost armor, etc.
Yet, like Tet, I do think the Ukies are achieving their political objective by sacrificing the troops involved. The simpleton American/Brit public – at least the portion that is even paying attention any more – is rejoicing that big bad Putin’s army is showing the weakness they had been told by the information operatives/media is inherent in it. Now the massive money can keep going to Ukraine without domestic protest. The worsening domestic economic environment can be tolerated longer because we all need to bear down and endure a little pain to stop those Ruskies – and it’s working! Perhaps too, they hope, there is now a questioning of Putin’s competency back in Russia. Maybe he will be taken down over this (as the perpetual neocon fantasy goes).
Getting excited over day to day battlefield developments in a war and trying to analyze what they mean in terms of who is going to win is a fool’s errand. That said, the Russians need to quickly crush this Ukrainian stunt before the Ukie political gains solidify. I think they will. I have read people speculating that Russia wants the west to go all in and deplete itself in the Ukrainian tar pit. IMO that is a mistake. The deeper in the west goes the more they will feel a need to chase those sunk costs and serious escalation – like NATO troops on the ground/nuclear weapons – becomes a much more real risk. The Russians should crush all hope, now, while the west can still ease away gracefully. Blame the failure on Zelensky, or whatever else it takes.
“The Russians should crush all hope, now, while the west can still ease away gracefully. Blame the failure on Zelensky, or whatever else it takes.“
Speculation is a re-iterative process of self-indoctrination, and hence not always productive to dispel.
Here’s a little arithmetic on the recent Ukraine ‘victory’.
Ukraine’s area is 603,700 sq. km
Russia has captured roughly 20% of Ukraine – that’s around 120,740 sq km.
The Ukrainian counter offensive claimed to have re-captured between 3,000 to 6,000 sq km. The 6,000 sq km number is probably on the high side, but we’ll use it.
So, 6,000 / 120740 X 100 = 5% recaptured by Ukraine – not an immaterial area, but not that significant either especially as the area captured has limited strategic significance.