I received the following from a friend who is well plugged in with the Ukrainian side. I consider his information reliable:
Volodomyr Zelensky visited Chasov Yar today to kick off an offensive to relieve Bakhmut and push the Russians back. A number of armored and artillery brigades are being moved down from the North to support such a relief operation.
Chasov Yar may be four or so miles from Bakhmut. Zelensky can no longer chance a visit to Bakhmut as he did earlier this month.
As we have noted before there are somewhere between 15 to 20,000 UKA fighting inside Bakhmut, and the UKA area of control is shrinking and also bifurcated between a larger group in the western center of the city and the remainder in the north east of the city.
Sources report that Leopard and Challenger tanks have been moved into position for the relief operation, even though the room for tank operations is not great because of the bad weather, rain and mud.
Some experts think this relief operation will last only four or five days and may start as early as tomorrow. It can’t go much longer than that because the UKA has limited reserves and cannot afford a long battle or stalemate with the Russians.
It is anticipated this will be a very bloody battle and could be decisive for both sides.
Zelensky is acting outside of the advice he is getting from the US/NATO which desires a frontal attack on Crimea and not at Bakhmut or, further to the south, Avdviika, which is also under Russian attack and potential encirclement.
If the Russians lose at Bakhmut it pressages a much longer war, perhaps years.
Up till now the Russians have been operating slowly and methodically, but this will go out the window with a fierce rescue operation.
If the Ukrainians lose, it suggests that the UKA will have squandered much of its offensive capability, and it could lead to a chaotic outcome.
The odds are stacked against the Ukrainians. They cannot match the Russians in terms of artillery shells and rate of fire. Russia, like the United States and NATO, has robust ISR (i.e., Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities. That means Russia should be monitoring the build up of Ukrainian assets in Chasov Yar and should be prepared to bring to bear an enormous volume of fire on any attacking columns.
My friend made quite an understatement in noting that, “bad weather, rain and mud” create a problem for the tanks. There are not multiple points of access available to the tanks and they will be facing Anti Tank Guided Missiles, artillery, bombs delivered by combat air, sea and air launched missiles. While I am loathe to reference previous battles in history, this certainly appears to be a Pickett’s Charge moment.
Russia enjoys a critical logistics capability in this looming fight. It can rapidly reinforce troops in that sector and it can supply the ammunition necessary to sustain intense fire. There are reports in the last few days that the intensity of fighting in Bakhmut has lessened. While lack of ammunition is one possibility (an unlikely one), I think a better explanation is that Russia is witting of the upcoming attack and is laying in wait to conduct a devastating ambush.
I want to remind you of a point I have made in previous pieces on the Bakhmut situation — this is not the only point of attack for the Russian side. The Russians are pressing forward on multiple fronts and forcing the Ukrainians to make some hard choices about where to deploy scant reinforcements and munitions. Unlike Ukraine, Russia has trained, experienced and well-equipped reserves near the front. The Russian responses will either confirm the claims of Western analysts, who insist the Russians are inept and poorly trained, or it will destroy that meme.
A Russian defeat in Bakhmut will not alter Russia’s objectives in this war. It would lead to a shakeup in military command and a significant escalation in Russia’s use of force against Ukraine. It would buy Ukraine some time and re-energize the West’s commitment to expand support to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian defeat, however, will be devastating and decisive. If Russia crushes the counter-offensive it will represent the slaughter of some of Ukraine’s most capable troops and the loss of recently supplied equipment and ammunition that is already in short supply. A Ukraine failure will eliminate Western optimism that Ukraine can produce a military miracle and will make NATO allies think twice before agreeing to pour more resources into the maw of Ukraine.
My money is on Russia.
“Root’in for Putin.”
For the sake of the poor souls running into the grinder, I hope there will be no counter attack.
I’m hoping for Peace. Ukrainians and Russians killing each other, while Biden’s Babbling Brigade and Zelensky, sit out, untouched, is precisely what Washington’s Haters want.
Biden wasn’t installed by accident. A pompous, self-important, vacuous Paper Cutout, is precisely what the evil, traitorous monsters that actually run the United States, require for their bloody purposes.
Let us hope that history brings consequences to the doorstep of these nasty people.
Who are the actual monsters pulling the strings?
Kevin, Completely in agreement, particularly your last remark!
The slaughter will escalate. You are correct.
“Strong leaders engage their critics and make themselves stronger.
Weak leaders silence their critics and make themselves weaker.” Adam Grant
Forget it. Lindsay Graham just told Blinken he’s going to sneak across the Finnish border disguised as a Suomi midwife and arrest Putin.
A gay trans Soumi midwife.
A Ukraine failure won’t change anything. They will still fight because the West won’t agree to a ceasefire. Zelensky is just a puppet because if he even brings up the idea of ceasefire with his nazi counsel, they will hang him, just like one of the peace negotiators – shot in the head. The fact that UK is now giving uranium shells to Ukraine is a signal that the clowns want to escalate. I just hope Russia is just lying in wait for all those western tanks to come rolling in and then destroy those tank – but at least capture one of them for research.
They are old tanks. Not much there to research.
It’s not just about the age of the tanks. Many different types are deployed. And the training of crews can not be unified, there will be problems with logistics on the battlefield. From fuel, through ammunition to repairs. The level of crew training is negligible. In three months, they can have only basic skills. And that’s not enough for a battle. Eighty years ago, the Battle of Kursk took place in a similar way. The Germans had only one chance. Then the front stopped in Berlin
They are all smooth bore, so as a last ditch effort, Zelensky can order infected AFU body parts to be launched at the enemy.
Don’t put it past that bunch.
From what I’ve read (not necessarily factual), it would take about 18 months to train Ukrainians on how to operate the sophisticated Leopard tanks, so it is unlikely they will man them. More likely, German or other NATO soldiers (“contractors”) will be operating the Leopards, and probably the Challengers.
However, considering how much misinformation there is on both sides, not to mention opinions that don’t stack up, it is quite possible that the above information is wrong, or that the tanks will be run by Ukrainians after a hasty training of a few weeks.
One could learn that heavier tanks are not useful in muddy fields. Something the Russians understood even before 1941… What is the next option for NATO…Refurbished Tigers.. Ferdinands… The Azov guys would be happy to see these again on the battlefield!
Ferdinands were as effective as the Ghost of Kiev….
They will likely capture not so important the tank but those Western soldiers who are operating the equipment.
Umm several British or American soldiers captured would make an interesting headline for Western and UK media to ignore.
Kiev’s military apparently executed NATO soldiers and burnt their bodies prior to surrender themselves already in this war.
They’ll do it again
Kiev’s military apparently executed NATO soldiers and burnt their bodies prior to surrender themselves already in this war.
Cut their heads and hands off too. Can they fit into an Abrams smooth bore barrel?
“A Ukraine failure won’t change anything.”
It won’t.
Poland is the next Ukraine. This next proxy war will be masked by the United States (NATO) coming to the aid of the “Ukrainian martyrs.”
Will the Russians interpret these events as direct intervention will be anybody guess. I think waiting for this “line” to be crossed is meaningless.
IMO, the whole “direct intervention” thing, as a line that cannot be crossed, is just a detail. The United States is treating Russia as a frog in their pot, seeing how hot they can make things before the frog notices.
World War 3 began in 2014. We have a ways to go.
WWIII preparations started the moment Cold War ended. The armed conflict part started in Yugoslavia. It took a while for things to escalate, because Putin had to rebuild economy and armed forces.
Some would say that the United States just picked up where Germany left off in 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as somehow “sub-humans;” undeserving of all those natural resources — in oil, natural gas, coal, minerals, and rare earths — Russia had in “shameful abundance.”
Some say the Cold War ended the last day the flag flew over the Kremlin. Some say that was on Christmas Day, December 25, 1991. However, Putin might disagree. In 2000, he asked then President Bill Clinton if Russia could join NATO.
“During the meeting Putin said, ‘We would consider an option that Russia might join NATO,'” Putin [said]. “Clinton answered, ‘I have no objection.’ But the entire U.S. delegation got very nervous.”
This was yet another Minsk II moment. The hegemon needs its enemy.
The West considering Slavs (and Orthodox Christians) as subhumans predates Nazis by centuries, and is what made Nazism possible in the first place. Seed of evil needs fertile ground. The desire towards natural resources amplifies that.
United States continuing where Germany left is not just a matter of personal opinion, but something documented. Large number of Nazi scientists and other “experts” were taken into US service (including Bandera himself). Nazism in western Ukraine (and western Yugoslavia) was kept alive by the West, in order to be used at appropriate time. I count all of that as part of Cold War. Once Cold War ended, those assets were activated, and we got this thing.
If I could see it, Putin could see it too. He was playing the game in order to buy time. Knowing what we know now, the whole “join NATO” thing looks like obvious trolling.
Hang on. The article says NATO wants him to attack Crimea, but Zelensky has decided to commit all he has to Bakhmut. Funny sort of puppet. He’ll disobey them on military affairs, which are not his strong point, but obey them on peace negotiations, which he was elected to conduct, long before the SMO.
Years ago, the Royal Variety Performance had a ventriloquist act. The dummy was surprised to learn he was a ventriloquist, and asked how good he was. “They say the hardest phrase is ‘bottle of beer’. Come on, say it, “bottle of beer, bottle of beer, bottle of beer, YOU CAN”T DO IT”.
Did your friend provide analysis of how Ukraine will win in Bakhmut given the facts you present? Seems the best Ukraine can hope for is a reprieve of a few weeks before Russia restarts their incessant and methodical march.
Thanks for that comment. After being told for months how badly devastated Ukraine is, how is it possible we are talking about a possible Ukraine win?
I found that when Russia sees the overwhelming psi they pull back to more defensible positions. Not sure you can call this a Ukraine “win” when Ukraine loses are thousands of men. Then when Russia regroups with the men they “saved” they move forward against a weaker Ukraine army. Rinse and repeat. That’s why we are seeing today Russian troops taking more land, moving North/West. Again in this case the only one who stands a chance to win is Russia. They win if they pull back and wait, then retake the land against less Ukraines. Russia wins if they defeat Ukraine straight up.
“will make NATO allies think twice…”
Yeah, I’m thinking not.
They need to think once, first.
“They need to think once, first”
Before that they will first need to learn how to think – a tall order given the calibre of our glorious western elite
All wars throughout history have been won by emotion-drive, knee-jerk reactions.
Alfred E. Neuman
For that they first need a brain (with some functional, not even healthy, neurons)
and will make NATO allies think twice before agreeing to pour more resources into the maw of Ukraine.
Inferring that NATO allies can ‘think twice’ implies they’re capable of ‘thinking once’ as a precursor and that is highly doubtful.
Ides of March roll on. Desperate. Appears to be potentially worse than Ardennes. No gas for Hitler no shells for Vlod!
It has taken me a while to understand what has been staring everyone in the face for months. Forget about the theatrics, comments, complaints or assertions about ammo shortage for the Russians coming from everywhere. I understand that the quote you gave is the Ukrainian take from a friend but, thinking about the possibility of Russia losing this one is garbage. It is very far from reality. This is exactly what they wanted from Bakhmut.
Brian Berletic did a video on defenses a while back, months ago. It demonstrated basics, the concepts, fields of fire, channeling ect. I am far from the sharpest observer out here but, sooner or later I get it, without having to be handheld to the truth. There is a very nasty truth to the surprize Russia has creaated.
The entire Russian line is a not a series of various defensive configurations. It is a single defensive structure, disguised as hodgepodge. And the center of this, well it´s name on the map is Bakhmut. And those idiots pretending to be planners over in NATO et all and the Uki command are stepping face first into the kill zone. This will not be pretty. For example, they have dragged their arty out into the open, without adequate air defense, in support of this mess. Confusion has been sown between NATO and the Uki´s about where to attack. Oh yeah, they think they know what they are doing but, not really.
I know that I am calling this a few days early ( not the first time and sometimes I am not wrong ) but, I am just tired about people talking about the Russians losing this. Get the popcorn going is my advice.
Thank you for the article Larry. I wish well to all.
John
If Ukraine wins in Bakhmut, it will mean we have been told some pretty tall tales for the past few months about how Ukraine has been decimated. the thought we are even entertaining the possibility of Ukraine winning this battle after this massive call up by Russia will make me question everything I have read.
At this point Ukraine could be wiped out and it would still be sold as a victory. The MSM and the United States will treat the news of the slaughter of the Ukrainian “patriots” like Ukraine was the Alamo. A vast army western army will be summoned to come to the aid of the “valiant Ukraine martyrs.” The next few years should be very interesting, on all fronts.
UKR border is more then 1000 km away from RU.
Hitting moving target is extremely hard even when in visual range, and to do that with missile that has to travel more then an hour to get there?
Also, spending Kalibr missile ( or similar one that can reach UKR west border) to destroy one tank or one truck of ammo is a waste of missile, since missile is far more costly then both of those things.
So no, if enemy makes a big concentration of forces close to the front (by concentration I mean park them like on parking lot), then yes, you can use some cruise missile, or air to ground missile, because missile then will travel few minutes and they will not have time to move them, otherwise, if you see missile traveling over 1000 km you can easily move the target or shoot down the missile while traveling.
If they come too close then you can lob them with standard shells (which are cheap and plentiful), and basically they are waiting for that – i.e. for weapons to come to artillery range to be destroyed.
It also means that UKR air defense system are pretty good – good enough to deny Ru air from hitting those supply lines and staging areas. The air superiority we were told that Russia enjoys is the real sham in this story.
Yawn….. that’s not Ukrainian air defense. That’s Russian air defense pilfered by the Ukrainians, like most of their land.
**now watch Eric the Red-faced actually respond to my little ditty** 😉
Russia has air superiority but uses it sparingly – It’s been devastating in Avdiivka and will more than likely play a part in the upcoming Uki Bakhmut counteroffensive. Russia’s artillery/rocket superiority will be the difference – last analysis I read it was 10:1 in favor of RU.
@Eric Newhill,
I am pretty sure you won’t (because you mostly troll here) but you can search on Wikipedia and easily get list of UKR armed forces equipment at the start of the war.
If you would by any chance do that, you would see that UKR has in last 8 years mostly modernized and well maintained most of its old Soviet equipment, and you could easily see that by sheer quantity and quality of it it was one of the strongest militaries in the world – i.e., just their air defenses consisted of 300 S300 systems (and 300-400 other, shorter range systems) which makes them second or third country in the world in air defense capabilities after RU and probably little worse, equal or even better then CHN – no other country in the world is coming close in amount or capability of anti air defense to UKR at the start of the war.
Also, it was previously explained that they don’t keep its air defense constantly on, but are receiving information form West’s ISR (AWACS, radars, satellites), therefore they can keep their air defenses off, and turn them on only when needed to take down an air asset, which allows them to keep them much safer overall.
So, to cut it short, RU has air advantage, but not superiority in sense that USA had against sandal crew. RU advantage is visible in a way that they can fly their aircraft more or less safe as long as it is flying above their own territory, or short into enemy territory on higher altitudes. On the other hand, UKR can only fly their aircraft very low, and in most cases, once they are launched they are almost certainly destroyed (they can’t get back home), which makes their missions kind of suicide missions.
Eric doesn’t search on Wikipedia or Google. Google and Wikipedia search Eric.
For Chrissake you Russia ass lickers sure are hyper sensitive on top of being stupid.
Whatever air defense system is being deployed by Ukraine is the Ukrainian AD system. Where the system was made is irrelevant. What is relevant is that it prevents Russian air from attacking some of the most important targets.
Ass licking is illegal in Russia. On the other hand, it is mandatory in USA schools, alongiside hyper sensitivity lessons, stupidifying, and projection 101.
@ Eric Newhill,
I hope this about ass licking was not pointed towards me because I don’t see anywhere where I did that, and that would not make you just troll, but also an immature one.
You claimed “The air superiority we were told that Russia enjoys is the real sham in this story.” and for that I have fully explained that an advantage clearly exists, but is not superiority per se – I also don’t know which serious commentator did claim that RU is having US vs sandal style of air superiority, as UKR was and most likely still is one of the countries with the best air defense available on the planet.
Tanks and artillery, not to mention shells, fuel etc, need to be transported by train. They won’t be driving tanks and hauling artillery 1000 km over roads given the fuel cost and time wasted. Targeting train tracks will stop equipment from moving east. Now that Russia has taken out most of the antiaircraft batteries they can use heavy bombers, still at a safe distance, to drop ordinance. My bet is that trains and tracks will be taken out. Satellites will know when trains start moving so hypersonic missiles could then be used to target specific areas given the speed of trains.
Important to not feed trolls.
@Meat grinder is an understatement,
Are you aware that fixing of train tracks is one of the cheapest things ever – it literally costs few thousand USD of value to replace a section of tracks, therefore targeting tracks is complete waste of resources unless doing it over short distance by shells, and even then it has questionable affordability.
Targeting train with hypersonic missiles is also a no no – its something you use for bunkers 80 meters below ground, not targeting moving trains – I mean, sure, if you had 10.000 hypersonic missiles your strategy would be legit, but since they are likely in low 100 count, they must be used only for strategic targets.
Also, to west cost means nothing – they are pouring hundreds of billions if not trillions of USD in this conflict, those 120-150 billions we hear about are only public expenses, while there are huge amounts of black money or repurposed money like military budget or even freshly printed money, so no, its not a problem for them to carry fuel/food/ammo even in cars/pickups (and not to mention trucks), therefore no, money, and basic resources like fuel and food are not an issue since they can always be bough on black market for higher cost, which they don’t care about since they can just print more money.
If you doubt my opinion that there are a lot of black funds there from the west, just ask yourself:
– How did UKR forces repair and modernize huge amount of their soviet era equipment before the conflict started, unless they received money from the west to do it?
– How did they afford to make all those elaborate concrete fortresses all over their country?
– Why are they saying now that they will need 300+ bil just to replenish the stocks they sent to UKR already – how it makes sense to say you gave only 30-50 bil of military help to UKR, but you need 300+ bil to replenish it?
– And also, it is well known fact that Victoria Nuland said she spent 5 bil USD to take over power in UKR during 2014, do you think she really had that money anywhere inside the budget, or was that black money expenditure? (I’ll help you, it was not voted in budget, it was part of black budgets)
Most of the Ukraine “aid” is handed to US arms manufacturers and NATO countries to resupply from US arms manufacturers. A huge portion of the funding that gets to Ukraine is siphoned off by _elensky and his cohorts, and a significant portion of arms donated go straight to the black market and dark web.
One of _elensky’s offshore accounts was identifed in the Panama papers in 2016. He became president in 2019.
@Black Cloud,
Those are all cover stories, the basic story is very simple – if West wins, they rule the world, if they lose, at best they go to being one of the equals, and at worst they go to total ruin.
Now tell me, when stakes are that high, and you have all sorts of black funds and ability to print money, will you risk losing the war because you did not print a trillion USD that will mean nothing regardless of whether you win or lose?
To clarify it:
– If they win, it will mean nothing because they will control the world, so who cares how many zeros were spent to achieve that.
– If they lose, it will mean nothing because they are broken anyway, and what are few zeros more going to add to when you face an utter ruin regardless?
One thing I don’t understand in this war… if Russia has robust ISR, why it’s not possible for them to destroy the NATO material before it arrives at the front? There’s not a lot of entry points of tanks and artillery in Ukraine, why doesn’t Russia destroy everything near the border with Poland?
A very interesting comment. I am thinking the same.
If Russia has robust ISR, why don’t they destroy the NATO material before it arrives at the front?
Russia has destroyed NATO Material, via missile attacks, when it arrived by train in Ukraine from Poland.
However there are also roads from Poland into Ukraine + rail lines from Romania and Slovakia into Ukraine.
Another reason could be that by letting NATO equipment get to the front, Russia is not only depleting Ukraine of military material, ammunition and soldiers, but also depleting the military inventory of European NATO Nations.
The tactic is called a War of Attrition.
Right.
Like all the “depleted uranium” munitions Rishi Sunak (Great Britain!) has just promised to send Zelensky?
I must assume that once Russia has guaranteed a victory for its newly acquired Russian territory in Donbas that Biden’s intent will be to render the Donbas uninhabitable?
The U.S. “Falluja” Part Two with malformed babies and poisoned land and water for generations?
The un-elected Sunak, US puppet tool.
Disgusting.
Perhaps THIS will get the British to rise up! God knows the Nordstream war crime couldn’t do it.
Here is hoping Russia will be following the introduction of these deadly munitions and will dispatch of them somewhere near Kiev perhaps?
Exactly.
The standard response from Russia fans is that Russia actually *wants* all the goodies to come into Ukraine so they can destroy them and wipe out Ukraine and NATO simultaneously. Russia, apparently, is casualty adverse as long as they are killing more Ukrainians than losing themselves. Also, Russians, I’m told, don’t care about time or territory. So there’s virtually no risk as long as they can keep raining artillery rounds down on Ukrainian forces. Russia will never run short on ammo, men, political will, funding or any other stuff that mere mortal militaries concern themselves with when at war.
I find all that to be farfetched excuse making; right up there with the garbage the neocons put out there, but that’s just me. btw, I’m a stupid crazy American trailer trash moron according to resident genius internet warriors on Russia’s side. So maybe you should stop asking simple and obvious questions lest you end up in the trailer next door to me. OTOH, maybe we can trade cousins or something after the KKK rally. Do you have any purty cousins? Do they at least have a few teeth?
Eric,
I’m with you on this one. It’s tempting to jump on to band wagons and miss the obvious questions.
Another thing – weren’t the Leopard II’s and Challengers etc. months away from delivery? Yet we now have suggestions of finding them at the front in Bakhmut in the “mud”. Who is operating these? Are there NATO tank crews operating these, or was this in the pipeline long before it entered the media circus and Ukrainian crews have been trained?
I think all of us and Russia need’s to be a bit careful about this loud shouting about NATO running out of everything. NATO spent 8+ years laying a trap for Russia, to weaken it in a prolonged proxy war. Perhaps this is why Russia has progressed the SMO with such caution – keeping the shelling going, destroying armies and equipment from a safe distance, while the US dollar hegemony and the Empire of Lies commits slow suicide and humiliates itself before the world.
No not all were months away from delivery if we were to believe the news… Few were available immediately about a dozen or two.
It’s like teaching kids to parse a sentence. 200 odd tanks were promised and just about a dozen or two were available for immediate use. Thus the media said that most were very far away from available for delivery. The little child brain takes the last part of the news and then tries to ask smart questions.
Right. Traps go both ways. I know it’s in vogue in some circles to believe that the US and NATO are utterly incompetent in all things and always, but they do know who to do war better than Russophiles want to give them credit for.
It’s fun to denigrate and demise the enemy. All sides in every war do it. At least one of those sides is always wrong.
The U.S./NATO have been defeated, repeatedly. by 3rd World countries, albeit with assistance from Russia and China.
Now U.S./NATO have got their HOT WAR using Ukes instead of Gooks, to decapitate themselves for the glory of their flag and for ground which has centuries of blood soaked by other groups with the same failed objective.
Ukraine is right on Russia’s borders. Russia knows the land. Russia cannot let Ukraine win.
Do you really think Biden’s handlers will run an election on the Ukraine War ?
I’m a stupid crazy American trailer trash moron… — Eric Newhill
No, you’re just a Mockingbird, singing the Empire’s songs.
Spanky, both you and newdill are correct about him.
@Spanky –
😂😂. That occurred to me also, but not as eloquently.
Why a mockingbird when a parrot will do?
Thanks Eric, that was funny. I get your point too. Strange days we live in.
ERIC,Being wrong does not make you stupid,not rethinking why you were wrong does.
I think I’ll listen to what Brian Berletic and Col. Douglas Macgregor have to say about the matter; they have some military creds that you DON’T have. Oh, and they DON’T seem to agree much with your way of seeing things, amigo Eric.
disagree – at this point there is no “wipe out simultaneously ukr and nato’rs” – at this point its just wipe out the nato’rs. the issue has always been nato expansion…
if nato arms supply to the ukr front becomes impossible in the EU public eye (a simple PR campaign, “the scaredy cat russians wont let our stuff get to the frontline to have a chance to defend gramma and liberty” ) and local peace breaks out early – do u really beleive thats the end of this conflict?
if you really actually dont get it may i reccomend this basic “regime change” clip from Steve Seagal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6qwO53n3Uw
in it, the global south, latin america, mideast are the bar goers, the proxy forces are obvious, state department itself is in the blue jeans vest and flannel at the 1:58 mark.
imagine how opinion in the bar would have been different if the hero had bonked the blue jeans vest guy on the head with a chair from behind.
did someone say purty cousin?
you forgot the part about them killing 10 Ukrainian soldiers to every Russian soldier. or maybe it’s as low as 5 to 1. that’s a significant, and telling, omission.
thats defintely in the Seagal clip (by way of analogy…)
So then America feels strong enough to engage on two fronts both Russia and China.
I wonder who the United States has found to fight these wars for them since they are falling so far behind in well almost everywhere and everything.
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/tomorrows-war-today?r=yg4sn&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Like shooting fish in a barrel, Eric. What’s not to like?
PS: I think it was about 1995 when I was on a plane to Moscow and half the plane was full of these evangelical youngsters with red T-shirts emblazoned with ‘Fishers of Men’.
I think there was even a guy from the State Department in that crowd. 😉
Mike Pence, I think his name was.
Russia intends to kill as many Ukie troops as possible, if they destroy the ammo, tanks, etc, prior to reaching the front then the soldiers will not be with those units. This has been the game Russia has been playing…the long game, the patient game, the game of drawing the Ukies to the Russians where Wagner and Russian troops kill them.
There is one road in and out of Bakhmut at present. Russia could destroy it but then how would they be able to draw more Ukies into Bakhmut or, even better, have a turkey shoot on the Ukies when they use the one road to retreat on?
The only place where Russia is lacking, in my view anyway, is they are slow to destroy the 155’s and other artillery and rocket systems that are being used to shell the civilian villages behind the line. Those pieces hit and get pretty quick so they are harder to track down and destroy.
It’s easier to kill Ukranians behind Leopards? And it’s easier to kill Ukranians while being killed by artillery even if it’s 1/10 of the Russian?
This is not exactly easy to understand. To imagine an Ukrainian counter offensive is out of reach of my imagination and yet they’re sending leopards. Something is not right in these tactical and strategic analysis.
“Something is not right in these tactical and strategic analysis.” Agreed. Something is not adding up.
Objectively, it appears that it is a hard, deadly slog for both sides. Scales are tipped in Russia’s favor but perhaps much more modestly than we read in our quest for truthful non NATO/US coverage of the conflict. Progress is slow. Is this “the plan”? Perhaps it is just “this hard”.
This is what is staring us in the face.
Makes no sense. Why not blow up presents from NATO before they reach the front? You still get to blow them up and they didn’t get to shoot at you first.
See this basic “regime change” clip from Steve Seagal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6qwO53n3Uw
in it, the global south, latin america, mideast are the bar goers, the proxy forces are obvious, state department itself is in the blue jeans vest and flannel at the 1:58 mark.
its the total defrocking of nato in front of world audience and in slow motion so no one can miss it. no excuses like elvis ate my homework or if only our super cool armaments coulda, woulda, shoulda have reached the front…
bring everyone and everything (twice) and we will still k.y.a.
its all in the clip !
imagine how opinion in the bar would have been different if the hero had bonked the blue jeans vest guy on the head with a chair from behind. the blue jeans vest guy now has excuses – oh i woulda beat them if only…
did someone say purty cousin?
Nobody thinks twice about how the west had been sending the Ukraine all its captured Soviet Era tanks.
Wait until Russia starts sending its collection of Abrams and Leopard tanks to the Ukraine. And then watch as Russia destroys those in a matter of days.
Turnabout is fair play.
Then you will know not only is NATO’s goose cooked, but the United States’ goose, and Europe’s goose, and the entire west’s goose. A whole flock of geese.
100% correct. The slow pace is by far the best option. We can also wonder why the green jester of the banderite court has not been ( at least ) targetted once. Even if the attempt failed.. This would help him to rethink his life…
IMO, the likelyhood of seeing the jested eventually accused of war crimes is close to zero. He will finish his career just like Pinochet… Drinking champagne with other billionaires
Because – they are doing just as said 1 year ago – denazifying and demilitarizing…Putin always says things, there is no one to hear from the fools ruling the west…
And that means denazifying/demilitarizing all troops (NATO) that will stay on the way firing a gun…it is much easier to clear most of NATO weapons on this arena….
Look at the so called “bundesfer” – total 300 tanks out of which 126 are operational…compare it with the 4000 already lost by 404…and the 16 000+ operational of Russia…western elites simply cannot do math…simple 2-3 grade one.
Russians are interested in long attritional war – europe is already on its knees economically, soft winter really helped, but next…migrants will shake these ugly societies…France is just the start
What makes you think equipment isn’t being destroyed on the way in?
Keep in mind we’re talking about things inside Ukraine’s zone of control. Who is going to publish evidence of these strikes? Ukraine? Russia? (To show how it’s being spotted?)
Somethings we will just not know until long after the war is over….
The Russians give daily reports of their strikes. If they reported hitting Leopard tanks in the west they wouldn’t reveal anything Ukraine doesn’t already know. Acknowledging they were hit does not share how they were spotted. It’s the same as acknowledging they hit an ammunition depot in Kherson.
I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge or superior expertise.
And certainly, if there’s a volume of attack beyond which the Russians will be overrun, then your point is made.
But if it’s all the same, why waste a cruise missile to destroy a tank near Lvov, when you can have it delivered for destruction like a fresh pizza by an artillery shell in Bakhmut?
My thinking would be because of the range. To destroy all at Polish border would use massive amounts of long range missiles.
Let them get close in tighter massed groupings and artillery, ATGMs, aircraft, and drones can be used. All much cheaper than Khinzals, kalibres, etc.
My understanding is a lot of this stuff moves on civilian trains, with the civilians being used as human shields. If a carriage load of civilians is killed, it is not just a tragedy for those involved, but bad PR too.
Makes more sense to hit it on the battlefield with NATO trained personnel inside.
Also, I hear a lot of gear is stored at nuclear power stations which are off limits to shelling, by Russia.
Having said that, I agree that Russia’s satellite info often looks lacklustre and is not beyond reproach.
The weapons in the west are not immediate threats.Russia is fighting the kinetic war in the now.The long range weapons of Ukraine were in the now and are mostly now in the past.Russia is only concerned about the western Ukraine if Nato troops cross the border.Then only will we see the destruction of everything near the western borders.
Maybe because if they destroy it near the frontlines its a lot more difficult for Ukraine to send it back to NATO for repairs? Or perhaps the kill probability is a lot higher closer to Russian lines. Or maybe the ordinance used to take out something that deep in Ukraine is not that cost effective
The answer is because Ukraine is a large country with a very long border and Russia can’t monitor every mile 24/7, just not feasible. They don’t have boots on the ground in the West so they would expend a lot of precision missiles and these are not stationary targets. Easier just to destroy the equipment on the battlefield. Seems to be working fine!
Try to hit the car with stone when firstly you have to pick up stone, then threw it on the spot where you firstly observe the car. While picking (raising plane/sending kindzal) stone the car moved forward for how far?? The same is with rockets/planes.
You need to shoot a few clays!
The reason lies in the goal defined by Putin: to push NATO back to the 1997 borders. This can only happen if NATO is reduced beyond its borders. If you destroyed it on the border with Ploand, the flow of weapons and ammunition would soon dry up. No, the only way is to encourage NATO to deliver its supplies and throw them in the trash for as long as possible.
Hello X.
The first of the great Russian weapon systems, which began development a bit over 200 years ago, is map making. To my understanding, it all started in the fight against Napoleon in the Ukraine. There is no worse choice than to pick that area to fight Russia. Complete stupidity. In my personal opinion, even with the C4ISR Capabilities of the West, it is nothing in comparison to the intimate knowledge the Russian General Staff possesses in terms of the topographical realities in that country. The fact that those idiots in D.C. specifically chose Ukraine as the place to break Russia, is mind boggling beyond all of my imagination.
So, to understand this War from the Russian perspective, keeping it simple, you just need to know that the map is their primary guide.
Have a great day X.
John
Indeed. Why can’t Russia just destroy trains crossing the Polish/Ukraine border? All this fighting on the contact line in the Donbass wouldn’t even happen if weapons were intercepted.
I am disappointed that this issue never gets talked about by Ritter, McGregor, Berletic, Martyanov, and the Duran. Frankly I am getting tired of them telling us that the Russians are ten feet tall.
nato eu or whatever label uwant to put on it – was dumb enough to first eradicate its own manufacturing, dumb down its education, weaken their own economies, toss out their own energy supply and then pick a rolling hills country land battle with a massive landpower with the location of the battle next door to its very own borders?
oh and to make sure its an unpopular war internally they pick nozi’s as the opponent??
u gotta be effn kidding me.
not sure 10 feet tall is not required…its called an: own goal ?
Simple. Satellites don’t hover constantly and large long range drones flying deep into Ukraine would be shot down. Only alternative are large planes with radar (radome) but they only cover several hundred km and are unlikely to reach far enough into Ukraine while flying at a safe distance from Ukraine controlled territory.
First, of the hardware sent to UA, about 1/3rd is interdicted and destroyed by Russian stand-off weaponry, a similard amount “falls of the truck” and only the rest, reportedly 30 to 40% actually reaches the troops.
So, there is an effort.
On the other hand, 20-40 thousand pple leaving UA to Poland (and about the same towards to Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova). From the report of Amnesty International (and others), we know that AFU does used human shields.
It would hit hard in Moskva too, if a Kalibr makes mincemeat from a train, full of children and women… Even thought in the next boxcar, hundreds of – say – crates of ammunition gets destroyed too.
After reading all the comments to this post, the only thought I have to share with y’all is that whatever may be RF’s plan to win this war, the plan WILL NOT be executed on a US Prime-Time TV drama schedule.
Y’all won’t be able to go to bed at 11PM having been shown a neat, morally satisfying ending. Hell, this thing is gonna last longer than a Mini-Series!
IMHO, what y’all need to be doing is preparing for how to handle the Uniparty’s insane reaction to the inevitable demise of their plans. Prepare for the worst, work towards the best. Let’s save our American Republic & prevent the shit show that is our government today from becoming a terminal case of Cholera
Just sayin’…
This is the question I`ve been asking myself for well over half a year. To date, I`ve yet to receive a satisfactory answer. Clearly, all railway and major road vectors from west to east are assessable, both within Poland, as well as in western Ukraine. The explanation most often given is that Russia wants to allow Ukrainian weaponry to be brought into front-line position, with a maximum number of personnel present; to be destroyed alongside the hardware. At the same time, it could be weeks if not months before a specific artillery piece or tank could be effectively destroyed; causing countless Russian deaths in the interim. Therefore I`m not buying this argument.
Then there`s also the question of why, exactly, at least three hundred thousand men are being kept on a standby that, at this point is approaching six months: At what cost? To what aim? With such a massive reserve of troops (and obviously no decisive strategic westward push in the offing), surely 20 or 30`000 men could be brought in to Bakhmut or Avdiivka at will as reinforcements, thereby eliminating any possibility of Ukraine even being able to build up such a “counter-offensive” (with possibly costly Russian losses even if “unsuccessful”)?
I do of course realise that these are armchair strategy deliberations at their finest. However, here`s one couch potato who remains at a loss to fully understand what the larger plan may be.
I’m with you. These are big and important questions and slick one or two liner answers won’t do. IMO, UKR air defenses must be very good. So Russia can’t send air on sorties to attack the supply lines. Air would be the most obvious means of eliminating the problem of NATO re-supply. What is puzzling though, given the lack of air, why Russia has not destroyed the rail lines and rail bridges in western UKR.
As I see it, the context is as follows:
1. NATO wanted to destroy Russia as it currently exists
2. NATO believed that sanctions and the destruction of Nordstream would accomplish that objective.
3. In order to apply what NATO believed would be crushing sanctions, Russia needed to be provoked into doing something the propaganda machine could label as utterly hideous, a threat to all good nations and crimes against humanity – i.e. the invasion of UKR
4. Russia took the bait and invaded UKR, unprepared for the job and with vague objectives (e.g. demilitarizing, etc)
5. NATO originally expected Russia to crush UKR in a few weeks (or even days) and then thought that Russia could be harassed and bled by guerrilla forces into perpetuity while being economically ruined as well. NATO thought all that would eventually bring down Putin, which it probably would if it had worked out as planned. Side note – it’s kind of funny, in a terrible way, how NATO was willing to sacrifice Zelensky in this process. Maybe they thought he would be a leader in exile bravely commanding La Resistance by zoom meetings.
6. For its part, Russia thought – or, more accurately, gambled – that the invasion would cause UKR/NATO to come to the negotiating table. Russia was as wrong as NATO was.
7. No one wanted or believed they could win a protracted full-scale war; not NATO and not Russia. Now both are stuck in it. Neither side has the resources to win decisively. Both sides are going to be badly mauled by the time this ends. One side will be mauled worse. That side is UKR, but UKR was selected as a sacrificial lamb since before 2/24/22.
8. Now the NATO strategy is to double down on what they’re stuck with (more cowbell as LJ says) and hope that Russia collapses some day under the pressure. Some, on the more extreme end of the spectrum, believe UKR can go on the offense and even threaten, if not totally capture, Crimea.
9. Russia’s strategy is to hang in there and hope that NATO runs out of energy and war materiel before Russia does.
Screw ups, misunderstandings, miscalculations on all sides have resulted in a bloody tar baby that none wanted and none can “win”. The propaganda machines churn wildly encouraging their side to keep the faith and to demoralize the other side.
Getting back to the question – Russia hasn’t deployed the resources it needs to in order to wipe out UKR supply lines, win major battles quickly, etc, etc, etc. Nor is Russia willing to suffer the casualties involved in fighting a real existential war. Same goes for NATO. So we have what we observe; a half-assed bizarre conflict that defies traditional military science teachings.
Let’s try it this way:
Winning the Ukr located war is necessary but not sufficient.
If winning the war was Both necessary and sufficient I would see the situation your way.
If the rus pull out chemicals
For example and gas everyone they “win”
but isn’t easy to understand why that’s not a sufficient solution (for world regime change)
Honestly, The segal clip shows the difference between a necessary Victory and a both necessary and sufficient victory in a trailer trash kind of way that appeals to me at least.
Now about that cousin with the teeth?
She’s wed to grandpa right now, but as grandpa has a bad case of the galloping consumption, she will probably be a huntin’ for a new man soon enough. Be patient. She’s worth it, I hear tell.
Let’s try it this way:
Winning the Ukr located war is necessary but not sufficient.
If winning the war was Both necessary and sufficient I would see the situation your way.
If the rus pull out chemicals
For example and gas everyone they “win”
but isn’t easy to understand why that’s not a sufficient solution (for world regime change)
Honestly, The segal clip shows the difference between a necessary Victory and a both necessary and sufficient victory in a trailer trash kind of way that appeals to me at least.
Should add that the threat of nuclear from both sides also limits the amount of force applied by both sides, to date at least. Another reason the war is being fought in bizarre and unsuccessful ways by both sides.
ok – that i can agree with – what is the state of world order when this is done…
(so there really was no cousin?)
The way the war is fought is a consequence of pervasive ISR employed by both sides so that any major army formations deployed in WW2 style to break the lines faces very heavy losses, even from numerically inferior opponent. Certainly Russians don’t want to sacrifice their men like that. Ukraine is prepared to sacrifice their men in belief that they can prevail. Their past ‘successes’ in Kherson and Kharkov was at great cost to them selves but little cost to Russians, and with associated propaganda gave them false belief that they won great victories when they were no such thing.
Russia didn’t took the bait, the threat was, and is, real. It was rather the case that the West forced Russia’s hand, which was all very well understood by the Russian leadership. It was not understood well enough by the Russian people. Russia also hadn’t had enough time to prepare its ground forces properly after the devastation caused by the fall of the Soviet Union. The nuclear forces had to take priority. The overall situation was such that the Russian leadership had to thread the military and political necessities of the SMO through the needle’s eye presented by the general lack of preparedeness on the part of wider Russia. But that was not the leadership’s fault, on the contrary. The fact that Russia as a whole has been able to parry the West’s onslaught will go down in history as one of the great strategic achievements of all time. Russia having been on the backfoot, now the West being on the backfoot, lets us see the delivery of Uranium munitions. Western decision makers would rather blow the world up than accepting defeat. It’s the most terrible insanity, ever, of all history. If Russia feels compelled to provide a nuclear response to Uranium munitions being fired, then we may finally see the destruction of Dnepr bridges, but also the delivery of nuclear weaponds to Ukraine or a direct NATO entry. Russia may decide to decide attack the West directly instead, possibly targeting undersea infrastructure. In this respect it’s convenient that the West itself has set the precedent.
That’s a fair assessment. Yes, the bait was a real threat, but Russia took it *when* they took it. Could Russia have waited until they were better prepared? I don’t know. It something that should be discussed, though it is merely an academic question at this point.
Thanks for bringing up Russian intel capacities. Across the web it is discussed much less than it should be, though perhaps one of the most crucial aspects, how much humint they get from moles in the AUK military and civilian command, can only be guessed at.
Efficiency. Letting the Ukes transport their military stuff 1,000 kms to the front wastes Uke fuel, time, effort, tires their troops, puts wear & tear on their tab, while Russia patiently waits for them in fortified positions with their logistical support right there.
Everything is smuggled in civilian vehicles. An 18-wheeler or a train car with a shipping container looks the same to ISR no matter what’s inside.
Very interesting. Do you think that the increase of ammunition production in the West is going to change the outcome of the war?
Thanks
West ammunition production is the new wonder weapon?
Got it.
Agree, I think Russia is going to win the war.
Way too little, way too late.
From all I’ve read, the increased ammunition production is 2 years out.
At the start of the SMO, US production of 155 was 14k rounds per month. Current plans are to lift that to 20k round per month by “spring” and 90k round per month within 3 years.
Same sort of issues in Europe’s ability to produce ammo. Ammo production does nothing for a companies ESG scores. The chemicals involved in explosives and propellants are in short supply and nasty requiring environmental impact studies.
On the otherhand we dont really know the stat of US/Nato stocks and if they are really depleted or not. We have to admit that we really know very little until after the fact.
I posted a comment it seems it didn’t work the first time (if it did please erase it)…
One thing I don’t understand in this war is why doesn’t Russia destroy everything before it arrives the front. If there’s a robust ISR, there’s not many entry point in Ukraine for artillery, tanks and so on, why doesn’t Russia destroy most of it near the border with Poland?
I find the notion of Western optimism difficult to believe. In your opinion the ocidental liders believe in what they say? Stoltenberg believes what he says?
this is the same old concern troll post , if anyone followed SONAR 21 from the beginning you will the the same kind of post by the same concern troll brigade.
Back then they were concerned of the 20 mile long russian convoy , oh how scary the ukrop will bomb them. yet no such thing happened.
They also pretended to be concerned about snake isle why russia didnt have permanent garrison back then..
Also they were concerned about russia’s lack of missile inventory and microchip for their weapon system
and now this same old message …
this is obviously Hasbara trolling 101 where this sock puppet troll and the known troll ‘eric newhill’ worked together to spread FUDS
* Look Up old post of ERIC NEWHILL on SONAR 21 and you will see the history unfold before your eyes, from a supposedly ‘objective commenter’ who moved into SONAR21 after getting kicked by SST’s Col Lang , slowly he dropped his mask of objectivity and now go full bore empire troll
In that case, thank God I’m not Eric Newhill and I have no concerns, I just don’t understand. Some answers here seem valid — but why don’t the more knowledgable people address the matter?
How come everything (or a lot) is still working? Even sleepy joe went to Kiev. All cat and dog goes to Kiev, and there’s not even a bumpy ride. Why are the trains transporting tons of material to the front still working? Makes no sense to me as a strategy for war. And yes, it can be 1 to 7 or 10, that’s still a lot of people.
X Billups,
Such things cannot be discussed lest you be labeled “crazy” and/or a troll by the local thought police – some of whom are no doubt paid agents of China and Russia.
For the record, I came here b/c Lang and TTG began spouting insane ISW propaganda and lying, blatantly, to their readership and then censoring anyone who called them on their BS (me , for one); something I really don’t like.
I was very much on board with the idea that Russia was prevailing and would prevail in the end. Then, sometime this past Summer, IMO, Russia dropped the ball and failed to follow through. I still say that Russia will mostly likely win militarily, but there is a real possibility that they could fail. I no longer believe they would defeat a combined force consisting of US, Polish and Ukrainian. Russia simply hasn’t demonstrated the will, the strength, the tactics or the force structure necessary. Maybe they’re holding back and actually do have what it takes, but that’s a big “maybe”.
It’s interesting that Buntalanlucu – who reminds me of Andrei Martyanov’s stubborn lack of mental flexibility and one sidedness – sees anyone who questions the Russians and Chinese as supermen and world saviors narrative as an info -op. Kind of makes one think that maybe Buntalan is all too aware that info ops exist and how they work, if you know what I mean.
My only “concern” is that the US is screwing around where it doesn’t belong and wasting huge amounts of money (at best) and risking nuclear war (at worst). Otherwise, I really do not care either way about who wins in Ukraine. It’s an intra-slavic issue; or should be. I don’t see any good guys in the whole mess. I really do not see a Russian victory as freeing the US from the perversion and other corruption that has taken hold recently. That is for Americans to deal with. I f’ing despise the Chinese and their model of society. I do not think the US should go to war with them either, not even over Taiwan. I think that we should simply sever ties w/ China and build our own manufacturing back – basically the Trump plan re; China. Screw the Han.
So my outlook is fairly moderate, but in a propaganda based club, if you’re not on the extreme, you’re a concern troll and/or agent of the enemy – the US in this case, a system of governance I once swore to defend against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
I think the answer is they can’t destroy the trains. Because they can’t fly in Ukraine or they will get shot down (they do a little flying right at the front). Cruise missiles aren’t meant to hit moving targets.
But the other question is why haven’t they destroyed the rail bridges. But I don’t think the bridges are that easy to hit. I remember a YouTube recapper repeatedly reporting that Russia had sent another missile at some bridge in eastern Ukraine.
Stoltenberg will say whatever it is needed to land as next director of the IMF….
Others in Europe are saying, and doing, whatever is needed to land as heads of NATO as Stoltenberg leaves…Amongst them, “Antonio” ( as he is known amongst Goldman Sachs people in Italy …), Pustula von der Liar, and Krista Freeland…probably also he feels he would have an opportunity, after widely collaborating in sinking his ( alleged ) country´s economy and future, former Warburg Banker´s guy, Scholz….
Make your bets who is going to lead the IMF and NATO…..
war is one thing for sure: unpredictable.
We shall see.
“We shall see”.
The best advice an armchair general can give.
With Ukraine’s defeat appearing imminent, will NATO/U.S. really decide between putting troops on the ground or using tactical nukes as some commentators are mentioning as of late.
No, of course not. The main goal of the US is to spread fear in Europe with the help of Putin and get the capital to be evacuated to the US. Once that happens, Europe could turn into a desert. Putin will get his, the US will get its.
Neither of them is going to die in a nuclear armageddon.
It’s odd, for sure. No element of surprise at all. I suppose it’s one way to get all this over in a hurry. Not sure what’s going through Zelenskyy’s coke filled head. Hard to imagine a Russian defeat here, though maybe too much time in the echo chamber has them believing there’s some kind of chance. Could it be a feint in preparation for an assault elsewhere? But then, where? Or, digging deep on this, is NATO going full bore to back it up with air power and missiles? If that’s the case, it’s WWIII.
It makes no sense to send all those men off to slaughter. But then, there’s never been anything sensible in all this so far. I’m definitely interested in seeing what the perspectives will be on this.
They don’t care about men.
It’s becoming abundantly clear that Ukrainians care as little for their own men as they cared for their men, women and children in the Donbass for 8 long years. I wonder if it’s a gene malfunction or something. Could be an infectious virus, as it seems many Europeans and Americans have fallen prey and are dropping like flies.
not odd at all, the US has stated publicly that the goal is to bleed Russia as much as possible with Ukrainian corpses. Zelensky will be rewarded with a mansion in Florida (or more likely a bullet).
In what world does the Ukrainian administration care about dead Ukrainians? Its not as if US leaders care about Americans – the US lifespan is collapsing and the US political elite party on. If US leaders care not for US megadeaths, why expect otherwise of Ukrain – the model of democracy that it is not?
Welcome to a brave new world – just like the old feudal world.
It makes no sense to send all those men off to slaughter
Unless that is the actual plan, to have Ukrainian speaking Russians who live in Ukraine killing Russian speaking Ukrainians and Russians, and being killed in turn, wouldn’t be the first time that two enemies of a third party have fought themselves to a standstill.
The more I think about it the more I think there’s something there Ukraine is desperate to conceal. Maybe a mass burial site from the organ harvesting operations, the side business of their child sex slave operations where they use the less attractive kids as organ donors.
They have a lot of skeletons, and maybe there are some so bad they’re willing to risk it all to keep them hidden.
….The more I think about it the more I think there’s something there Ukraine is desperate to conceal. Maybe a mass burial site from the organ harvesting operations, the side business of their child sex slave operations where they use the less attractive kids as organ donors……
Likely
Simplicius76 wrote in detail here
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-31923-and-weekend-mailbag
about the force levels of the counteroffensive the Ukranazis are preparing to launch at Artëmovsk. If the quoted figures for personnel and equipment are accurate it will be an attempt similar to the Manstein attempt to break through to Stalingrad in 1943: if it succeeds, it will be a dramatic propaganda victory and will definitely slow down the Russians. If it fails, as in 1943, the failure will set up a cascading collapse of the front (the fall of Stalingrad forced Hitler to withdraw from the Caucasus and its oilfields).
Either way the war will not end here.
Manstein ist kommt!
Russian airpower will come into play and decimate any Ukrainian troop and armor concentrations.
I think it is insane. But yes, I think they are pushing a counterattack into Bakhmut. The Russians must see this coming, as you state with their surveillance capabilities. Which to a degree is why I think their artillery and missile salvos have been a bit lighter recently. They are saving up.
The Russian side I understand. They have prepared. If the Ukrainians do have a large force, they will retreat and bleed the Ukrainians if necessary. The Russians won’t go Alamo. That assumes the Ukes can press thru hell on earth.
The Ukrainians? Wow. Logically? Fall back to the Dnieper. Fortify Kharkiv and Odessa. Plan to survive. Not logically, but insane? Go Kamikaze and plan on NATO riding to the rescue. As Larry has astutely pointed out “Intelligence or lack of it”.
The CIA believes the Ukrainian hopium. The Ukrainians believe the Ukrainian hopium. All you hear and read is the Western media hopium. Fuck, maybe they think they can win. But they have a circle jerk of no one actually saying any alternative narrative. It is Jim Jones and the Kool-Aid. People do this shit.
It is why I avoid the human race and enjoy my dog. They will die for nothing. With nary a thought. I don’t mind dying. I want to outlive my dog, because I don’t trust anyone else taking care of her. But I’m 63. Two gunshots. One stabbing. 9 totaled cars. Colon cancer. 3 divorces. Beat unconscious twice. Fuck. Death will be a blessing. I’m just too stubborn to do it.
But this is where analysis and common sense all fall apart. It is insane to go into Bakhmut. It makes no sense. It also doesn’t make any sense to be an Adolf Hitler worshipping swastika wearer. These people are not stable. The Matrix movie. People are a virus. They exist to destroy.
So yeah. The crazies push into Bakhmut. The Russians fall back and bleed them. The Ukes are out of people, and the Russians move right back and start pressing all up and down the line. And maybe NATO moves, and the world blows up. And the blood flows. Huzzah, human race.
My sentiments exactly. Vlod is Agent Smith. He knows he can’t win so he’s going full retard. My only question is what kind of agreement Neo(Putin) has with the matrix?
You have clearly been hit hard and often in your life. I hope and pray that you will have the the strength and the love to enjoy as much of your remaining time as possible.
I have not heard of this from any other source. I favor the Russians in this conflict.
What the newly-created Ukrainian force needs in a “live fire training exercise”. They need to test everything and gain valuable experience thereby.
It would be wise to commit a small portion of its forces to this offensive -but large enough to test combined arms capabilities up to general command and staff level- and to take limited objectives.
For example, this force could fight to open road and rail access to Bakmut. Ideally, the bulk of forces inside Bakmut could then be withdrawn. The retreat could be declared a great tactical victory and a lot of experience could be acquired.
Another Great Ukrainian Counter Offensive?
22-03-2023: Bakhmut is not encircled, however, all roads in and out of it are under Russian artillery fire. Over the last weeks the fighting, to complete the encirclement, has largely stopped.
No one seems to know why the operation has been halted.
The Russian traitors have stopped the fighting so that the chosen can walk out and fight another day. The neo-Nazis will be ordered to fight to the death.
The preferred option was for the traitors to order a withdrawal allowing the Ukrainians to stage another miraculous counter offensive, just like in Kherson and east of Kharkov.
However, the Wagner Group refused to cooperate, so they cut off it’s ammunition.
But even that did not work as Prigozhin was still able to get ammunition from Akhmat, and a few other units.
Eventually Prigozhin was reduced to calling favors that enabled him to get ammunition without it being processed directly through the Russian military. So the traitors took away his phones.
Since March 1, due to lack of ammunition, the Wagner group has not tried to complete the encirclement of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin’s promise that the Wagner group would take Bakhmut, in spite of the Russian MOD, was premised on his being able to find ammunition elsewhere. It appears that he was not able to do so. Thus his troops are wasting their time fighting for the small village of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, far to the north-west of Bakhmut.
While the Wagner group plays around near Orikhovo-Vasylivka we hear that Ukraine is planning another miraculous counter offensive to free Bakhmut.
As you may guess, any counter offensive that lacks secrecy is likely to fail.
And this supposed Ukrainian counter offensive certainly lacks secrecy.
So, it is all bullshit, complete and utter bullshit.
You may ask yourself where this large force of men and tanks is coming from.
If it is from around Chasiv Yar, one asks, why have they been sitting in Chasiv Yar, sipping tea, and watching their compatriots in Bakhmut being slaughtered? Strange behavior.
If they are coming from Kramatorsk, then how are they going to make it across the flat terrain to Bakhmut unless allowed to by the Russian High Command?
Either way, there is no large force near Bakhmut with which to launch another miraculous Ukrainian counter offensive,…. but then,… I guess you only need a very small force for a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.
“but then,… I guess you only need a very small force for a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.”
Speaking of small Ukrainian counter offensives,… the one that “took” Kherson comprised a force of zero tanks, zero pieces of artillery, zero planes, and zero men. And it routed the Russians completely.
It was truly a MIRACULOUS Ukrainian counter offensive.
This is what I’m talking about. Why is Ukraine able to establish a staging area a mere four miles from Bakhmut? If Russia has air superiority, super excellent eyes in the sky, awesome artillery and fire control systems and mountains of ammo to burn, then there is no way that Ukraine could mass troops and armor any where near Bakhmut; especially not a mere 4 miles away.
Another question – are you sure that Russia (Wagner more properly) has built adequate defenses while also attacking? Or will they be caught in relatively exposed positions? I’m guessing the latter, which is why Zelensky wants to attack now (assuming there really is an attack coming).
I thought the Ukrainian army was pretty much wiped out and will totally collapse any day now. Yet they can launch a big push on Bakhmut?
Will Prighozin really want his mercs to be further reduced in such a battle? How will the personalities and politics of that situation impact the coming action?
IMO, 50/50 Russia prevails if Ukraine counter-attacks – and I’m being generous to Russia. And no, I don’t buy the post hoc rationalizations like Russia is playing 5D chess and deliberating suckering Ukraine into an attack. If Russia had sufficient troops to do that, they wouldn’t be slugging it out there and taking a thousand casualties a week +/-. They would have taken Bakhmut long ago. They can always kill Ukrainians in the next sector of the Ukrainian defense in depth, since body counts seem to be the metric of Russia success preferred by internet Russia cheerleading section.
Oh yeah, silly me, I keep forgetting. Russians don’t care about territory or time. Maybe they’ll just flee Bakmut on account of that philosophy. So that won’t count as a loss because Russia doesn’t think that way, like stupid Americans.
Russia’s goal is to demilitarize Ukraine. Allow them to assemble and deploy in the open and then destroy them. If they are in bunkers in Chasov Yar the chance of decimating the force is low. Understand?
Precisely! I would expect heavy use of thermobaric munitions.
Why? We really haven’t seen that yet.
But yes, I would also expect thermobarics. Lack of use of them is another fact that causes me to question the hyper pro-Russian position.
Good analysis Eric!
I have also been completely amazed by the fact the the Russians never targetted the green jester. I may be wrong but I believe they did not even try!! Not even an intentional miss!
It seems nobody will ever give us an explanation for that!!!
I have also been completely amazed by the fact the the Russians never targetted the green jester
Because they know what they have in him. Making him a martyr would only increase his (supposed) prestige. It’s been noted several times that, if the West took out Putin, a more extreme leader would likely take his place. If (z)Elensky was taken out, we would likely see someone more extreme (and possibly more competent) take his place. Better to deal with what one knows than allow for a worse option.
It’s notable that there are occasional reports that the West is growing tired of (z)Elensky as well. Why would Russia remove a thorn in the Western plans? The West can’t really do him in without creating issues centered around how it happened (it could be faked) and who takes his place. Russia should not interfere while her enemies teeter on the edge of making mistakes.
Overall, it is what it is. Things appear to be working in Russia’s favor at this time (depending on who you believe). Don’t “fix” something that isn’t broke.
@Byron
Thank you for your very relevant observations! I consider the Kiev regime and the western msm to be a permanent source of ridiculous lies.
I agree with you! The current maps of the conflict confirm your views about the wisdom of the Russian MoD plans.
Destroying the banderites is a higher priority for them and for civilization. Meanwhile, the best is to focus on patience.. One day, the jester will meet the fate that he deserves.
Take care!
All western media and specialists say the Russians are inept, incompetent, unprofessional, and much more. I don’t like to see the same kind of analysis regarding the Ukrainians or they American masters — I don’t find that credible. Something doesn’t add up. The Russian casualties keep also adding up, they’re certainly more than the US in Vietnam already. And the Ukrainians proved to be fierce. I don’t know…
“ Something doesn’t add up.” -X Billups
Adding up to another Mockingbird, it seems.
But no serious observer puts Russian casualties at more than 10% of what the Ukies are suffering. One Russian for every ten Banderites. What would seem reasonable to you, one to a hundred? Comparing this war to Vietnam is wrongheaded; you may as well compare it to the Napoleonic wars, so completely different are the givens of the two conflicts. Bananas and apples.
More of the reading comprehension issues that plague the Russian fans here. I never compared this war to Vietnam. I am specifically talking about body counts and kill ratios as a poor metric for success.
If the Ukrainians are being slaughtered – as you guys believe – then, yes, even a 10 Ukros to 1 Russia ratio is pretty rough on Russia because that is a lot of KIA and wounded and evacuated for a force that was always too light to accomplish the mission decisively.
Putting aside other salient considerations, morals and morale being just two, the impact of casualties is relative to the size of your force and what is needed for the mission.
Ok, fair enough… But that’s a lot of people. I don’t know what’s reasonable, nothing here seems reasonable from the beginning.
When I ask why they don’t destroy everything before it arrives at the front that’s from ignorance — from here it’s not logical. And where’s the Russian airforce also? The Ukranians still have credible air defence?
Both sides in this conflict are resorting to hyperbolic propaganda.
I think the Russians have shown a slight, but meaningful, edge over the Ukrainians, but it is not the decisive certainty that their fans want it to be. The Russians have been trying to win this on a shoe string and, IMO, their notion of winning is wearing Ukraine down to the point where a settlement that gives Russia eastern Ukraine must occur (forget Odessa. Not on the table). They would probably have achieved that goal, but for NATO escalation. Now NATO is attempting to wear Russia down to nothing. That may work depending on Russia’s ability to produce or procure enough ammo, Russian economic factors, Russian political will, etc. OTOH hand NATO may get worn down for the same reasons.
Rather than a certain outcome of Russia prevailing, I see this war as a pathetic race to the bottom. Each side ill-prepared for a major war and just trying to hold on longer than the other.
No they aren’t. Or, can you provide examples of hyperbolic propaganda on the Russian side? Don’t confuse with hypersonic missiles…
In my country all you hear is Ukraine and people talking in a way that I find unbelievable. A year ago couldn’t point Ukraine on the map. Channels like RT are blocked and literally no one goes of the US/British official narrative. And that is Ukraine is wining, the Russians are loosing and are not human. That’s all the news we have.
well, LJ, the “they’re in bunkers” explanation goes against the idea that Russia is firing more arty and therefore killing more Ukrainians. As I’ve been saying, if the Ukros are in defensive positions, then a lot of that Ru arty is rattling nerves, but not killing.
It would be a monumental task to assemble a large attacking force, with armor, etc. and keep the whole shebang under cover the whole time. – or even most of the time.
“… If Russia had sufficient troops to do that, they wouldn’t be slugging it out there and taking a thousand casualties a week +/-”
I’ve not seen that estimate anywhere? It would seem total killed in action are closer to 15,000K. Even if one doubles or even triples that, it is a far cry from 1,000/day which would give us ~400,000 killed in 13 months of fighting.
Also, Ukrainian killed or missing in action reported by Ukrainian sources is around 325,000. Given numerous other reports and also the ratio of RF:UFA artillery fire, the casualty ratio is between 7-10 to 1 in favour of Russia.
That Russia’s objective is to demilitarise rather than capture land mass is a very smart one, IMO, and it seems to be working. In whatever way the NATO crazies led by the neocon nut jobs may keep escalating, Russia still retains the upper hand with high reserves and short supply lines to its front. On the diplomatic front outside Empire Fantasyland, Russia is crushing the U.S.
This will go into the “You make me sick!” file:
https://youtu.be/IhS_7tVv_XQ
My soul sista!
Newdill makes shit up Elial, haven’t you noticed?
Ignore him, don’t feed the troll.
Newhill to Newdill? Pretty good. Who thought that one up?
Newhill, the ukrop’s outcrop. Guess if he had his way, Zelensky’s mug would be on Mount Rushmore.
Made up what? Mostly I ask simple questions based on military experience and simple common sense. You, on the other hand, say/ask nothing of value and merely imitate one of those shit throwing monkeys one sees at the zoo.
Anyone can blindly parrot Macgregor and other pundits who have been proven wrong as wrong can be on many observations and predictions (note: I like and respect Macgregor, but he made several foundational assumptions, one being that Russia is militarily competent, and everything he has said has flowed from there. I made the same mistake myself for the first sever or eight months of the conflict. However, when I realized that my fundamental assumptions were wrong, I pulled back. Macgregor went the other way and doubled down on wrong).
I said a 1K a week. How did you leap to representing what I said as being 1K per day? How did you leap to 1K per day for every day of the war? I am talking about Russian casualty rates over the past month or two in the Bakhmut battle.
1K per week in the Bakhmut sector is based on what Wagner and other Russian sources are saying.
What exactly is the source of your obsession with pushing your compulsive naysaying here?
Is it a subconscious need of some sort, because the approach you take is totally self-defeating.
It’s no longer just an issue of being right or wrong. It’s become an issue of your coming off like a Don Quixote charging windmills.
Newdill,you really cannot see past your nose.The Ukrainians were able to advance in the Kharkov offensive because Russia had no forces behind their front lines.Where are those 300 thousand mobilised troops from 4 months ago?Hmmmmm.Who is creating all of the pressure along the front?
What pressure? Are you there feeling it?
Say Bakhmut falls to the Russians after 6 months of fighting. Then what? On to the next line in UKR’s defense in depth, for another 6 months. Repeat, repeat. The Ukrainians are proving to be very stubborn and brave fighters. What about other sectors up and down the line? I don’t see anything resembling Bakhmut elsewhere. Doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, but it’s not being reported. So where is all this “pressure”. If you think Russia can keep fighting this war for years, you are out of touch. Can NATO and Ukraine keep at it for years? Probably not in the current mode, but in guerrilla warfare? Yes, absolutely. As we all know, guerrilla warfare can be frustrating and can ultimately lead to political victories for the guerrillas.
Huh? What does the Kharkov offensive have to do with anything? I never mentioned it. But since you did, Kherson was well defended by the Russians and they still fled across the river. They probably would have fled Kharkov too even if they had a lot of troops there. What pressure along the line, aside from Wagner in Bakhmut? More echo chamber nonsense. You tell me; where are the 300K (or whatever the figure is) Ru troops? I don’t see them doing anything much, yet. Maybe when the ground freezes?
More blatant disinfo from the resident troll.
Russian forces did not flee Kherson. The reason for the tactical withdrawal (while destroying thousands of NAZIs) is well known.
Why is this racist, ignorant fool tolerated here?
Tactical withdrawal = euphemism for running scared from the enemy.
Well known? What is well known? By who? Talk about making stuff up. Are you claiming that Putin directly told you the truth? Otherwise you’re making stuff up.
Looks to me like the Russians feared being cut off in Kherson – which means the Ukrainian military is no where near on its last legs, not running out of ammo, etc. and the Russians, unlike you, know it.
I’m not sure what is not clear here. Putin wants to avoid big loses on Russian side. It’s easier to annihilate ukraine forces closer to Russia, than to over extend and have supply problem. Also, he is obviously preparing for war with NATO. As long as Wagner is willing to do the dirty work, there is no need for push.
Do you assume that you’re getting all of the information from the front? Are you sure that Russia hasn’t been hitting accumulations for Ukraine’s counteroffensive? If so, what makes you so sure?
This counteroffensive has been openly talked about for several weeks. Maybe the weather isn’t the only reason for delays.
@Eric Newhill :
The Russian strategy in Ukraine is really quite simple — a very plain simple matter of “Just try to buy Russia as much time as possible”. (Of course, by “Russia”, I mean the Russian MIC, but I just call it “Russia” for short). And, of course, with as “minimal escalation by the West as possible” too.
So, to answer all your “Why Russia seems to be failing and lacking seriousness in Ukraine” questions — it’s just a matter of buying more time for Russia and keeping NATO escalation to a minimum. You see, Russia can certainly be a lot more successful in Ukraine — but then guess what’s gonna happen?? NATO will start to hugely ramp up its own operations there as well. And Russia does *NOT* want that — it does *NOT* want NATO to escalate, it would much rather prefer fighting waves of crappy low-morale conscripts taken from the streets of Ukraine (with a little bit of NATO support here and there, that is, it’s not like every conscript is gonna get the latest and greatest weaponry / NATO technology / etc!). Russia *wants* to only fight against this latter adversary, even if it means scaling down its *own* involvement as well!
This is also why you hear of Russian “retaliatory” strikes, especially against various infrastructure, and *NOT* an “everyday occurrence always taking down as much infrastructure as possible” type of thing. The latter could easily lead to significantly greater escalation by NATO — so, Russia has to back off (this is also why you heard of Russia often “sparing” certain key infrastructure, like electrical stations and the such as well).
Yes — the Russians may have well started out back in February 2022 in a much stronger fashion. But, once NATO came into the picture (pretty quickly too), Russians realized they do *not* have the MIC to take on NATO and leave well unscathed afterwards too. So, to avoid a potentially huge NATO escalation, they scaled down their operations to mostly PMC’s and local militias. And, in turn, likewise, presenting themselves as being “bogged down” by the Ukrainian forces as a result (albeit, with the added benefit of preventing greater NATO escalation by passing Russia off as a “weak adversary” that NATO shouldn’t throw that much at anyway).
Yes — this tactic can certainly appear quite demoralizing to anyone (on either side) who was expecting a rather quick end to this with minimal loss of life / property / etc. But, alas, unlike US/NATO, Russia has not spent the past several decades expanding its MIC and throwing it around everywhere willy-nilly like US/NATO has. And so, Russia does find itself in a difficult position — i.e, “succeed” in Ukraine too well, and then deal with an even bigger involvement of NATO (and thus have to deal with way more than just low-morale conscripts armed with HIMARS/etc), or — appear weak, but in turn, get to minimize NATO involvement / risk of escalation, and also buy more time for the Russian MIC as well.
(*Side note — one flaw in the latter approach, however, is that if US/NATO deems it might *itself* be getting “too attrited” in all of this anyway, it may just end up escalating hugely anyway too, just to get a “quicker end” to this!)
So, in conclusion — if you analyze Russia’s approach to the SMO as “simply just lay low and buy Russia as much time as possible”, with also “as minimal NATO escalation in the meantime as possible too”, it seems all your questions/concerns of their strategy would easily all be quite settled and answered…
JamesK,
I don’t disagree with what you said. In fact, a lot of it is what I’ve been saying. I usually add that drawing this out isn’t all upside for Russia there’s an increased risk associated with the approach, but what’s the point? It just proves that I’m crazy, a hillbilly, etc.
My main point, with which you appear to agree, is that Russia wasn’t prepared for this conflict any more than NATO was. Also, that Russia made some serious miscalculations – one being not understanding that NATO would jump in.
A more overarching point being that Russia is not playing 5D chess and is, in fact, rather human (what else could they be?). Which is not to denigrate Russia, with which I personally have no beef and, to the contrary, respect as a culture. It’s the drooling zombie parrots in the west, damn Chinese agents, socialists, anarchists of the alternative media crowd, with their twisted facts and revised history and mountains of nitpicks, who hate everything about the US and idolize Russia as infinitely superior, perhaps perfect, with whom I take issue. These people have 0 self-awareness. They are what they criticize – a mass of mindless fools in the cult of America hating (the mirror opposite of their nemesis), repeating obviously stupid and wrong propaganda.
All the post-hoc justifications from Russia fan boys, like those here, who, overwhelmingly and humorously, don’t have service experience in any nation’s military, but have suddenly become strategic and tactical experts, etc is JUST AS RIDICULOUS as the lopsided crap spewed by the ISW, US Govt/media, etc. Yet they spew it with righteous certainty just like the opposing side does. They are convinced that they have The Truth. And neither side can understand how the other can believe such nonsense. They are all emotion driven and irrational and unable to soberly assess – those that aren’t being paid to disseminate propaganda, that is.
Not being American I don’t know about Picket’s charge, but assume sending waves of men into an artillery barrage didn’t end well. Neither did the charge of the Light Brigade, nor the ANZAC troops in Gallipoli doing the same against Turkish machine gun emplacements.
Seems there is no end of militaries just charging into what is probably certain death presumably with some vague hope that it will somehow end in their favor. There is something to be said for leaders or their families needing to be leading from the front, that would be the end of suicide charges, or even war altogether, the current crop of sissies aren’t of the same mettle as kings of old.
Pickett’s Charge was the final battle at Gettysburg in July 1863. The Confederate troops charged across an open field, slightly uphill, against entrenched Union troops with artillery. It was a slaughter.
A senseless slaughter
X Billups says: here ya go
1) An errant missile in NATO territory is exactly the justification NATO needs for WW3.
2) Annihaltion of the enemy’s army (fighters) is what inevitably silences all their weapons.
“The defeat of the enemy means the destruction of his forces, whether by death, injury, or any other means to make him stop fighting.” -Carl von Clausewitz.
3:The Realities.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/usnato-isr-addendum-deep-dive-into
Very interesting link, but doesn’t answer my questions and I have some more… How come all this US feed real time data killing Russians is not an act of war? Add nord stream, the demonizing campaign, the sanctions…
The Russians are a patience bunch, but one of these days their patience will run out I’m affraid.
It IS an act of war. Would you prefer the response be outside Ukraine’s borders with a quick ratcheting up to nuclear? I wouldn’t.
Rules of the game, so far….keep it local, lest we all end up dying over some homicidal, suicidal dumbass ukrops festooned with nazi ink.
Works for me.
Why are you asking us? It looks like you already have an idea?
Canadian here. Spoke to a few people who are paid to track this. Could this just be a pure propaganda move the western press can turn into something that is really nothing? The outdated Leopards and other relics are most likely going to be used as artillery platforms. The Ukes are going to go in with infantry and make a lot of noise and video for the media. Russia will probably just ignore it and probe hard in other areas. Seems like a waste really … if its true.
Perhaps a “great” offense north of Bahkmut is the most logical choice for Ukr … it’s an area only recently captured by Russia and is unlikely to yet have comprehensive lines of defense similar to other well established fronts. Logistics from Kramatorsk down the major highway are also probably reasonable.
Fighting in the area’s open fields in the current bad weather and poor visibility will make it difficult for both sides. Russia’s forces may also have the disadvantage that the 10K Ukr troops currently in Bahkmut may try to break out northwards to attack Russia from the rear. Most unlikely Russia would lose but perhaps may decide to withdraw from part of recently captured territory to more easily defended positions depending on the size of advancing Ukr forces ….. always supposing that Ukr actually makes such an attack.
I read stories about what quick learners Ukranians are with respect to whatever NATO is sending in. Can’t help but wonder who’s really going to be crewing those Leopards and manning the Patriot when it goes in? Too many powerful but unscrupulous people who think they can’t afford to lose or ever be wrong.
I remember last Fall in Kharkov. Seemed like much of the combat videos popping up online featured American-accented English-speaking soldiers.
“Can’t help but wonder who’s really going to be crewing those Leopards and manning the Patriot when it goes in?”
They will be manned by foreign mercenaries. Mainly Jewish mercenaries.
As is obvious, Ukraine is a Jew Project (with a neo-Nazi veneer).
They may be American, British, French, Poles,… whatever.
Mainly, they will be Poles as Poland has had a large Jewish population since hundreds of years.
Ukraine (in particular Western Ukraine) has also had a large Jewish population since hundreds of years.
Zelensky envisages Ukraine will look more like “a big Israel” than like Europe.
Western Propaganda on the vintage tanks coming from RU:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11890123/Desperate-Putin-70-brings-Soviet-era-T-55-tanks-old-retirement.html
What is better? An M1 garand with a 2.5 power scope…or no rifle?
Russia grinds the meat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAfKM63KP-c
It’s Rocky Balboa…VS … Apollo Creed
In the meat locker…with Nationalist Russia…Russia Orthadox Catholic…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjX20gL-rnc
Russians are bringing those T-55s in order to give Leopard 1s a fighting chance, not to mention Slovenian T-55s that were delivered recently.
Frankly, I think they may just be scattering them unmanned across the landscape in order to expend munitions and draw geolocation fire. You know, sort of the equivalent to Czech inflatable tanks.
Nah, that’s too much hussle. They will use them as artillery, similar to how they use MT-12 Rapira (Soviet era anti-tank gun).
and the man in the back said everyone attack
I ‘member.
I member loading up 9 in my vw bug, doing twice the speedlimit through every green light to get to the midnight movie for charities.
I ‘member it well.
We liked heavy metal better than the RHPS. So would usually watch it.
Twas before I knew I was being used to spread murder and degeneracy around the world.
Ahh the early 80’s.
Ignorance was bliss.
What I worry about is the British Challenger tanks firing DU ammunition, and if those tanks are in Bakhmut, what happens then?
I think I get why Russia is slow-walking this war – Ukrainian defences and preserving one’s own men. The body counts for both alive and dead are conflicting. Ditto for shells and weapons.
Thank you for this blog.
I suspect those Challengers are going to be at the very top of the hit list.
I wouldn’t want to be inside one of those things in Bakhmut, or anywhere else!
Russian Armed forces today have control over the two main routes linking Artemovsk to Ukrainian areas. That extends to more than 10 km direct firing power for each route. For sure the Russians are already informed about Neonazi proxies troops gathering around Chasiv Yar. The lull in fighting is basically an invitation card to Zelinski to launch his counteroffensive at this instant when everything is nice and quiet there.
The only “win” i see for Ukraine is that they manage to rescue their troops inside Bakmuth. In no scenario i see them break the entire encirclement.
So in my pov russia cant really “loose” besides not destroying the ca. 20k fighters in Bakmuth.
I do not even begin to speculate what plans the Russian General Staff is pursuing. I stopped doing that months ago. The USNATO sees everything the Russian does and Russia sees everything the USNATO does. Especially through the modern reconnaissance technologies. So the means of “deception” is a war-decisive means.
But there is one aspect I always keep in mind when I think about it.
Russia’s opponent is the USNATO. The Bandera army and NATO mercenaries are only to be understood as their arm. But at any time the USNATO can strike directly. Conventional or a nuclear first strike. Whichever the hell. I disagree that the U.S. has the option from its perspective that it will end the war.
Their window of opportunity is closing faster and faster.
The U.S., the empire, who do I mean by that? I mean the money dynasties that have always controlled Europe and later the USA and still later the whole world. They had the chance to participate in a multipolar world and their gigantic economic projects. But no, they always want the whole cake.
A very good article on this by Simplicius The Thinker:
“How the USSR’s Fall Unleashed a Neocon Goldrush to the Heartland”.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/how-the-ussrs-fall-unleashed-a-neocon?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=109622273&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Scott Ritter has commented on the economic power of the BRICS and the G7:
“G7 vs BRICS – Off to the Races”.
https://consortiumnews.com/2023/03/22/scott-ritter-g7-vs-brics-off-to-the-races/
And then there is the impending death of the U.S. dollar.
Someone throws a stone into the water and immediately everyone looks there intently. But what is happening in the background?
The West. Is Andrei Martyanov right and the West consists only of complete idiots? Or do rational strategies exist? War is the means of politics and politics is the whore of capital. The latter is the source of all developments.
The inevitable collapse of the dollar. A collapse actually that is already taking place.
The hegemony is done!
We now have two new world leaders and 70% of the world’s population is rejoicing that the wicked witch is finally out. (Isn’t ironic that in the Wizard of Oz it was the wicked witch of the West.)
It’s gonna be awfully cold on the outside
It’s difficult to believe they are all complete idiots. Larry in his talk with Red Pill refers to them as insane. Maybe they want the Russians to think they are insane, because that helps with a good does of unpredictability.
If they really are complete idiots – and there clearly are lots of idiots involved in the EU leadership class – then the Russians will have it easy. Maybe they can raise the average intelligence of the human species!
If they are totally insane, then who can guess what happens? The West seems a rabid cornered wounded animal in the corner. (Which is yet another reason, perhaps, the Russians are going slow.) Let it die on its own is better than provoking it.
Insane, yet methodical–ie. like your typical MBA.
Good points. Russia has to keep an eye on NATO at all times, and seems to be prepared to take them full on if they have to. It looks like a patient approach as the US/NATO side is in disarray on several fronts. Their bluffs have all been called, whether military or economic.
Who’s winning? Like your stone in the water analogy, look past the conflict that is only a symptom of a much bigger system. Russia’s economy is growing, their currency is strong, they are forging relationships with most of the world to the chagrin of the US and Europe, and their banks are sound. They are self-sufficient and make stuff, in addition to being rich in natural resources. The US/Europe is getting shrill, banking disasters on both continents, inflation, economic woes, the US perversely relies on China, a foe, for manufactured goods, and is in the process of having a debt bubble pop. China has to know that the US is no longer a reliable market for goods as they can’t finance the debt required to buy them anymore.
A simple question: can we get out of this mess by printing money and borrowing more at higher rates to keep buying stuff we don’t make? No. Smart people would have set about re-industrializing decades ago, or even never de-industrialized. Obviously there are either no smart people running anything, or they have some other agenda that requires destroying the west.
Meanwhile we are fixated on the ripples in the water while the jackals creep up behind us.
My guess is the counter attack on Bakhmut is false information to throw the Russians off. Ukrainians know how to play Maskirova too. Deception.
It makes no sense as:-
– Zelensky had plenty of time to withdraw troops had he wanted to
– it could be a suicide mission and stalemate at best
– Zelensky has British body guards, American houses and does what he is told
The only possible rationale for doing this would be as a way to end the war in a bloody battle and negotiate with Russia. Which Zelensky apparently is now open to again.
That aside, my guess is any counter will be multiple fronts with feints to pull Russian troops out and lots of propaganda, the West will send special forces to try to take land bridge and water front, they are already there, tonnes of British and Polish troops, US mercenaries so called, those fuckers are not going into Bakhmut. They are going to try to do something big.
–
“My guess is the counter attack on Bakhmut is false information to throw the Russians off.”
You are describing a line of thougt I am also thinking of.
After all these months of fighting in Bakhmut the UKR army was not able to hold the line. Masses of troops were send into this slaughterhouse and it did not change the outcome.
Why would anyone believe that a counteroffensive in Bakhmut has the slightest chance of success at this time?
I can not make heads or tails of it.
Exept for the reason to keep Bakhmut for a few weeks longer. To show that the support of the US and other countries are not in wane and that Ukraine is still capable to achieve at least something.
But your thought, that ‘Elensky might use a failed offensive in Bakhmut to engage in negotiations did not cross my mind. I do not believe that he has that much power or influence to change the goal, which is to win at all costs. It would mean, that the Ukrainian Government breaks the alliance with the US and its allies. How probable is that?
Perhaps the Ukranian counter-offensive is a (very expensive in men and materials) distraction to extract key, trapped NATO personnel (and/or forbidden chemical or bio-weapons). Certainly, Ukraine has continued to direct battalions into the meat grinder well after the tide in the Bakmut battle was evidently going out.
What I do not understand is if Chasov Yar is so close to Bakhmut 4-5 miles, and Ukrainians are gathering huge amount of equipment and nazi force there why Russians simply do not strike with Airstrikes or super-sonic rockets whatever and just make a hole there…why let them organize and move columns toward Bakhmut when it is fully under Russian range of power?
A lot of stuff is kept deep underground. Remember they have spent 8 years building a vast network of reinforced concrete tunnels and storage depots.
Le Farge, the French concrete company, supplied them as they did in Syria (6 million tonnes of concrete). In Syria the the tunnels were huge and trucks were driven through them.
It is good to know that Ukrop command still believe that impaling their forces on the Russian frontlines isnt futile or suicidal because the SMO cannot end until all those combatants willing to kill Russians are either dead, crippled or removed from 404. Russia has successfully fooled them into thinking that they have a significant chance which makes it much easier to demilitarize along the frontlines rather than anywhere within the land – indeed we may see a tactical withdrawal from the western river bank in Bakmut simply to suck in more attackers hopefully from the forces near Transnistra now that option is less likely to go ahead
The pressure is on Zelensky. Show the US another victory or the funds dry up. There goes that extra villa on the Riviera. So what if thousands get slaughtered. There is money to be had!
All in all, what I’ve seen so far since last summer is the Ukrainians bleeding very slowly. And the Russians taking a very long time to sort out their mobilisation and training.
I certainly haven’t seen those new mobbed soldiers being employed. If anything, some main characters in the first half of the SMO seem to have been gone on holiday, ie, the Chechens. Though you hear more about the marines at the moment. And of course the hyperactive Wagnerians.
It seems to me like the Russians have found a formula that’s cost effective and are sticking with it. But it’d be naive to think all those reserves are not having the spring tightened up for pouncing, in case NATO finds a weakness.
Interesting comments here today, lots of Armchair Generals knowing the Russian war plans and strategies better then the Russians themselves….
I think we just have to wait until the war is over and see what the outcome will be.
There are too many unknown factors to us privat Generals and only time will tell.
Anyhow I dont have the impression that Russia could loose this war and as we all know its not at all about Ukraine only, this is the biggest “game” since decades and the US will fight with anything they have to keep control and we can expect some bad shit coming from the US Neocon retards like Nuland Blinken Sullivan etc the next months.
But they are doomed and in the end will get their Mussolini moment😎
https://www.ww2online.org/image/benito-mussolini-and-clara-petacci-hanging-after-execution-milan-italy-29-april-1945
Again it’s not at all about Ukraine.
To Russia it’s all about the Western Alliance.
We spend too much time focus on Ukrainian that is the small picture
Russian is fighting with a view to the collapse of NATO, the Western Alliance and all its appendages.
Some here seem to be under the ludicrous impression that the Ukrainians have parked several brigades worth of equipment in a Walmart parking lot somewhere close to the front. Or that vast trainloads of NATO equipment are crossing the border, around the clock.
Someone actually living in a trailer would have more sense. The Ukrainians, certainly have more sense.
I believe this is the first major conflict in which both sides have access to advanced surveillance resources. Russia’s being organic to its armed forces while Ukraine’s is provided by US/NATO.
Both sides have developed tactics to mitigate the impact of these resources.
Units are moved gradually to obfuscate intent and present a less attractive target. On arrival at destination, Units are dispersed and ‘dig in’ for protection.
NATO supplies for Ukraine are sent in dribs and drabs, making virtue of necessity as Western supply can’t keep up with the tempo of combat anyway.
Russia’s not going to shoot a cruise missile at every truck that crosses the frontier.
No, within the context of Russia’s stated operational and strategic objectives, her armed forces are doing precisely what they need to.
Bingo. Both sides have excellent surveillance capabilities. Either side trying to do a “Big arrow operation” is doomed. But you can’t waste a hypersonic on 5 dudes performing a “trench raid”. This really is World War 1 attritional warfare. Oh? And the side with more people and artillery win those.
The end parameter is men. When does Ukraine run out of their chain gang draftees and Western mercenaries? I believe that is nearer than most think.
And that leaves only one card to play. NATO insertion.
Larry:
typo: witting –> waiting
As for Western analysts: disagree also. If the offensive fails, they will blame the “even more inept” Ukrainians. Heaven forfend that the West be wrong…
Looks to me like the U.S. will blame China for helping Russia defeat Ukraine . This way, China becomes the next Western target…which in fact, they ( China ) already are. At that point, European leaders will put on their knee pads and go begging to Russia for cheap gas and oil. Russia, now committed to selling its product to China and other nations will intentionally sell small quantities to Europe…this will keep Europe from being a threat as Europe will be too poor from buying the expensive U.S. gas and oil to ever pose a problem to Russia again.
I think you *unwittingly* got that one wrong.
OED:- witting, vbl. n.1 Obs. exc. dial. (ˈwɪtɪŋ)
α. 4 witand, wyttande, 5 wetand; Sc. 5 wyttyn, 5–6 (9 north. dial.) wittin, 6, 9 witten (9 wittance, ? = wittens). β. Ayenb. wytende, -inde. γ. witting, etc.
[Of mixed origin; in the forms witand, wyttande, wetand, a. ON. vitand consciousness, knowledge (f. vita wit v.1) in phr. at minni, várri, etc. vitand to my, our, etc. knowledge; this type is app. in part continued in the Sc. and north. dial. wyttyn, etc.; in Ayenbite (see quots. 1340) in pres. ppl. form wytende, -inde; otherwise f. wit v.1 + -ing1.]
1.1 The fact of knowing or being aware of something; knowledge, cognizance.
Most commonly with prep. and possessive (or of), as at, by, of, to one’s witting (partly after OF. a son escient), to or with one’s knowledge, as one knows; as far as one knows; knowingly, wittingly; without one’s witting, without one’s knowledge, so that one does not know; also but witting, without its being known; with witting, wittingly.
2.2 Knowledge obtained or (esp.) communicated; information, intelligence, tidings, news; notice, warning. (Cf. wit v.1 3.) Chiefly in to get witting or have witting.
I have wondered if this will likely be the last large offensive by the Ukies and is designed by the West to position Ukraine into negotiating peace. The Ukrainian military offices are not so dense as to not see they have lost the war. Zelensky likely knows this as well but now has little say in his future and well being. He will do as instructed.
One last hurrah offensive, it fails miserably, Ukraine gets to play the “we did our best” victim hand, and blame Europe for failing them. The U.S. lays blame to Europe and talks tough about Russia being a bad boy and China helped Russia win. This tact is used to enhance funding to NATO.
It will take years to resolve the war crimes as it is found that European, NATO and U.S. leaders were aware of and provoked the war crimes. The European courts will move very, very slow to convict its own political leaders.
Zelensky possessing no talent as a political leader and only moderate talent as an actor will not be able to return to either. He will be viewed as a buffoon in the broadest of sense and will find he is only tolerated in certain countries. Where ever he is, he will be viewed as a pariah, a destroyer, and a failed human being. It is highly probably he and his family will spend their remaining days in Switzerland.
Peace negotiations will begin in earnest when Zelensky has resigned and left the country. The Ukraine military will carry out the negotiations as most of the Ukraine government that has supported Zelensky have left with Zelensky. None care to swing for their war crimes and all are aware of the anger of the returning soldier and the citizens.
Agreed. This is all theater, the operation has almost no chance of success since all it can achieve is to partially relieve Bakhmut.
An attack on Svatove last fall was the best shot at a victory since they could have rolled up the Russian flank while the Russians had manpower issues and that is no longer on the table.
So, they manage to relieve Bakhmut or reach Melitopol. So what? Now they’re deep in Russian territory to their north and south. The whole concept is preposterous.
the real question is, is this another WW2 scenario, which leads to NEW KHAZARIA being born for the chosenites…
US/NATO ISR data will be fed to UAF planners as well so it’s not like they’ll be charging blindly into the Russian meat grinder…ISR be damned they may charge anyway.
A major UAF defeat may also provide the false flag (genocide, chem, bio, nuclear, war crimes) opportunity US/NATO needs to enter the conflict if that is what they want to do (I am not convinced all NATO members want to be in a shooting war with Russia).
Echoing previous discussion…from a US perspective the SMO has to be “resolved” before the 2024 election cycle…no candidate can reasonably run on a continuation of US support platform.
Charge of the Light Brigade, not Pickett’s Charge. Ukraine’s army is moving forward into a cul-de-sac, not aiming at the strong point of a hooked defensive line.
Anyway, how can Ukraine “win” this? Russian forces can just trade space for time and lift some of the siege of Bakhmut (so back to square one). It will still be in artillery range. Anyone have any ideas?
An attack is not an offensive. A relief operation lasting four or five days is definately not an offensive. If attacking force is strong enough, Russians will retreat and give up ground in order to minimize losses, as usual. In a war of attrition, holding ground is not a priority. The victory for Zelensky would ammount to a photoshoot.
James Vasquez. Pretend ‘Murican warrior for the Ukrainian Nazi Party. The Twitter and New York Post darling. He destroyed the first Russian tank! All by himself! The first of 7!
He has disappeared. With the 3 million dollars idiots sent him thru fundraisers. I personally believe this poseur never even set foot East of the Dnieper. He would leave a Warsaw bar with some fellow LARP’ers, rub some grease paint on, and take a picture in a wooded park.
He was outed by Sarah Ashton-Cirillo. A man/female transgender LARP’er “fighting” for Ukraine mainly thru Twitter posts. He was never there. Never part of the Ukrainian military.
Is he not the perfect corollary for the whole Ukrainian matrix war construction?
https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/us-army-veteran-goes-to-ukraine-helps-blow-up-russian-tanks/
You forgot to mention that he was beaten up in subway by some kid.
What is Russia doing even allowing a formation? Don’t they have missiles that can lay waste to entire sqkm? Or only nukes can do this? I don’t know genuinely curious.
An often asked question.
Who knows? Perhaps Larry can chime in?
I think these “formations” start off in civilian areas, inhabited by Russian folk. Presumably they are attacked once in motion.
A popular Russian tactic seems to be to let them come, withdraw troops, and Bang!
It has been highly effective so far.
Way off topic but a follow on from an unsubstantiated comment yesterday.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/devastating-horrific-the-jabs-true-effect-on-mothers-to-be/
Like Lou Brooks, I wonder if this anticipated attack is part of a larger game. President Xi has met with President Putin, and reportedly President Xi will at some point hold a zoom meeting with Zelensky.
The optimum sequence from China’s point of view would probably for Zelensky’s attack to end in tragedy for so many of those poor Ukrainians. Then President Xi calls and offers Zelensky a great deal — if Zelensky orders a temporary cease fire, Xi thinks he can get Putin to go along, provided Zelensky agrees to immediate peace talks with China as the mediator. Plus, President Xi suggests that China will be prepared to invest Big Bucks in rebuilding the Ukraine if the peace negotiations lead to a good outcome. And, by the way, China’s contacts at high levels in the West whisper that Europe & the US have their hands full with their own economic problems, and Zelensky should not count on meaningful continuing support from NATO.
Russia wins. US/NATO lose. And China takes the prize.
I think there’s a possibility that Prigozhin’s cry for ammo and claims that they could already have taken Bakhmut, but for ammo, is a giant Russian trolling scheme, to get Ukraine to think they have a chance at recovering Bakhmut. Let’s see, when it gets rolling whether it turns out that they have plenty of ammo to do what needs being done. It would be a major strike for Russia if they can get Ukraine to commit to trying to retake Bakhmut, and then crush them in on fell swoop.
Choosing Artemovsk over an offensive for Melitopol or Crimea has its logic.
AFU have the geographic high ground , an encirclement problem to solve and an occupied territory to conquer that have not much big fortifications nor recent minefields to push in.
It’s less suicidal than trying a push on a plain where the enemy build defenses for the last six month at least.
Now it is not the only hotspot on the line, defending one point over another is a gamble. A risky one with low gains to await but between that and a boring defense , Hellensky choose the most entertaining plan. He’s an entertainer after all , he want to please his audience.
In reading the commentary here, the one thing I don’t see is any analysis that looks at what are Putin and Russia trying to accomplish.
Their problem is they are dealing with a set of suicidal Democrat and Rino neocons who want to start WWIII and somehow have the idea that they will not be casualties of this mad enterprise. The Russians are walking a tightrope of defending Russia and the new Russian territories without giving the crazies in the US an excuse to blow things up.
Think of a police hostage negotiator trying to talk down a suicidal maniac with a bomb and three children as hostages. There is a lot of tip-toeing around and probing to find the boundaries. The negotiator wants to get the children out alive, he does not care if the maniac dies, in fact he may try to maneuver him into the line of fire for a sniper if it solves the problem without casualties. Xi and Putin are doing this with the US and its maniac leaders. For Xi and Putin, the best solution is for the West to commit economic suicide and self destruct without starting a war.
I like the earth green and populated so I for one applaud their skill so far. My prayer is God be with you gentlemen.
The reason Russia is allowing the build up of AFU troop concentration can be explained by the fact that those dying in Bakhmut in the last many months were noobs whose purpose is to waste Russian ammo (while wasting their own God-given precious lives) to buy time for the real mccoys to show up. And that is also the reason why uncle sam is against them showing up prematurely before the spring offensive – they are just too precious to be wasted on a half baked counteroffensive against what is already a lost cause in bakhmut.
March 23, 2023
Dear Mr. Zelensky,
I hope you read this excellent Blog
from Mr. Johnson !!
If you are the one who originated this strange, weird idea, and give the orders to launch this final offensive on Bakhmut :
With all due respect to the people of Ukraine and to You Sir, I would like to suggest that this seemingly ‘articulated’ operationally idea is a risky imposition; seemingly from a ‘Foreign High Command’ that also ‘seemingly’ directs this war from outside your borders.
The purpose -although not unusual – is rather doctrinal and basically political, far from any purpose or tactical logic. The fact and result would be to send these last ‘elite UKF Reserves’ to his final annihilation.
Then only, achieving this ‘ultimate sacrifice’ and leaving Bakhmut in full control of the Russians, – we, they or them – could move on to ‘Part Two’ of the War in Ukraine…
– And, what and how would be the Second part of the War in Ukraine – ?
– Well, dear mister Zelensky, It will be Geo located – sadly, regrettably –
out of what was Ukraine ! –
Greetings,
Good meditation and reflection.
All wars throughout history have been won by emotion-driven, knee-jerk reactions.
Alfred E. Neuman
Alexander Kots (Komsomolskaya Pravda journalist whose name has been added to the Western Sanctions list) weighs in on the upcoming spring battles https://www.kp.ru/daily/27481/4737625/
What will be the main battles of this spring: Russia and Ukraine are preparing to exchange terrible blows
Military correspondent Alexander Kots announced the preparation of a strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the flanks on Bakhmut surrounded by Russia
WILL THE APU WILL RETRACT TO THE NEW LINE OR WILL “DRAP TO THE DNEPR”?
Informationally , the situation around Artemovsk today resembles an episode from the “Ordinary Miracle”. Remember the princess gives the hero Abudlov: “For three days I chased you to say how indifferent you are to me!” Same with Bakhmut. Even at the beginning of the year, both the Western media and the Kyiv authorities vied with each other about the importance of the city-fortress, which Ukraine would by no means surrender.
Zelensky on February 2, I remember, said so.
And a month later, when the prospects for the defense of Artemovsk became obvious, he assured that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not defend the city at any cost and to the last soldier (although what is happening there now reminds me of this). The Pentagon with him, that’s a surprise, in solidarity – no strategic importance, according to US generals, the city does not play. And even if it is lost, nothing terrible will happen to Kyiv.
True, not all overseas military analysts are so optimistic.
The former adviser to the head of the US Department of Defense, Colonel Douglas McGregor, for example, believes that with the fall of Artemovsk , a chain reaction will begin that will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian defense.
“The story with Bakhmut is coming to an end, and this will be the beginning of a new phase of the conflict, during which the southern front will completely collapse,” McGregor said. – The Ukrainian army found itself in a difficult situation, it is experiencing an acute shortage of food, medicine and ammunition. And the command left its soldiers to the mercy of fate.
Bloomberg believes that by losing control over Bakhmut, Kyiv risks losing the entire territory of the DPR.
And the former American intelligence officer Tony Shaffer, in an interview with journalist Stephen Gardner, even believes that the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine right up to the Dnieper will be a consequence of the transfer of the settlement under the control of Russian troops.
What is really going on in the city right now? What are the real consequences of the capture of Artemovsk? And when will it take place?
FOUR RESERVES OF GENERAL SYRSKY FOR BREAKTHROUGH TO BAKHMUTH
According to the latest data, units of PMC “Wagner” control about 70% of Bakhmut. To date, we have completely liberated the eastern and northern parts of the city. The main battles are now unfolding in the northwest and southwest around Artemovsk, where the “pincers” of the environment are being compressed more and more tightly. “Above” we are fighting for the settlement of Khromovo and the village of Bogdanovka standing on the road to Chasov Yar, “from below” for Ivanovskoye, also located on the road. The resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inhuman, knowing full well that with the loss of these settlements, the lid of the boiler on the Bakhmut garrison will actually slam shut.
The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky , with maniacal persistence, continues to assure that the defense of Bakhmut will be continued, and he is not going to withdraw the troops. You can be so self-confident only in one case – if there is a real plan to de-blockade the city. And this is possible only by hitting the flanks of the “musicians”.
As Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, stated , “in late March-early April, Ukraine plans to launch a large-scale offensive and deliver flank cut-off strikes in order to “cut off” PMCs from the main forces of the RF Armed Forces.” According to intelligence, several strike groups have been created for this at once. One – in Slavyansk, the second – in Seversk, the third – in Chasov Yar, the fourth – in Konstantinovka. Dozens of pieces of equipment and mobilized reinforcements are uninterruptedly approaching there. Part of the “road of life” is immediately sent to the “Artyomovskaya meat grinder” to replenish shabby connections, part remains to form reserves.
“BOILER”
The most dangerous situation is to the north of Bakhmut, from where the enemy will most likely try to strike. That is why the PMC seeks to close the ring around the city as soon as possible, so that some of the fighters can turn around to the outside of the “cauldron” to repel a possible breakthrough. And they hope that units of the Russian army will cover the flanks.
The intended direction of attack is from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. It is vitally important for Kyiv to break through the front line in this direction, because here behind Bakhmut passes the outer defense contour of the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration – along the watershed of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. It is located on a hill, which descends to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
Sliced ”PIE”
At the same time, the very course of hostilities outlines the prospect of our hypothetical offensive. Which, however, will take place only if the “musicians” will actively and harmoniously interact with the units of the Russian army.
Now dense battles are being fought by our troops to the north of Soledar along the Vasyukovka-Razdolovka line, on which it is possible to create a bridgehead for an attack on Seversk. In the event of an advance from the south to the settlement of Ray-Aleksandrovka, and from the north to Yampol, there is a prospect of encircling Seversk and the collapse of this entire line of defense that goes from here to Toretsk. Thus, we get a perspective on one side of approaching Slavyansk, and on the other, an exit to Konstantinovka.
This is the next line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , which runs from south to north from Avdiivka to the city-symbol of the Russian spring. Given the activity around Avdiivka, a sliced pie with several “cauldrons” emerges around Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
This does not mean that tomorrow we will wake up in a new reality, when the liberation of Donbass is already tangible. This is wrong. I worked in Artemovsk, there are no easy breakthroughs for kilometers ahead. The enemy fights literally for every stone. However, these battles tie down the huge resources of Kyiv in the Bakhmut direction. Ukraine is forced to transfer the most combat-ready units here in order to contain our offensive and allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to mobilize on new lines of defense.
And the spring offensive of the enemy is also on the way, which can focus simultaneously on two directions – Svatovsky and Zaporozhye. Nevertheless, there is every chance that in the coming months the front will gradually move away from Donetsk, whose residents, tortured by the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will finally be able to breathe easier.
I have no expertise in military matters. I have no knowledge about what is really going on in this war. Only the Russians and NATO know for sure. We can’t trust anything coming out in western media. I can read Russian media, but I assume they spin things the same way we do. Bottom line is we’re all guessing here, based on a very incomplete understanding.
What I do know is that the Russians aren’t stupid. And from what I’ve heard from various western leaders, we are. We also suffer from hubris and a host of psychological disorders, starting with narcissism, while the Russians know horrendous suffering and deep humiliation firsthand. They remember the past. We can’t even remember yesterday. They are wiser than we are.
We may have enormous military capabilities, but we are limited in what we can employ in this situation. I think Russia understands the game. A massive strike to crush Ukraine would possibly trigger a response from NATO that could easily spin out of control. They don’t want this. So, they are in my estimation holding on to what they have and will deal with any NATO attempt to take it from them. When Ukraine/NATO is sufficiently exhausted, they can stroll westward and mop up any remaining pockets of resistance. I don’t think they want all of Ukraine, but they will never accept an armed and threatening Ukraine. A demilitarized landlocked rump state economic basket case is what they will leave for the EU to deal with.
The Russians correctly surmise that it is not they who are getting bogged down in Ukraine, but NATO. They know that as this grinds on it is the west that will suffer more. This suffering will bring about political change, so that it can no longer continue writing Ukraine a blank check.
With the increased rhetoric about China being our main enemy, this conflict will need to be wound down so that we can focus on that.
In the end it will all be forgotten, just like we forgot about Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. There may be millions of lives ruined in the process, but like our other military misadventures, we don’t care. The right people got richer from the war and that’s all that really matters – that and putting Europe in its proper place as completely subordinate to their master.
I often write thoughts that seem to have nothing to do with the topic of war and Ukraine. But this is only apparently so. What do I mean? The war in Ukraine, the actions of Russian forces, developments in NATO, and geopolitical factors are not isolated things from each other.
The thing I am most concerned about is not Bakhmut or the communicated insane desire for a USNATO offensive to Crimea. What scares me is that the empire is becoming more and more cornered. This results in the acute danger of “rash” actions that may lead to an apocalypse. God forbid that the USA is really run only by idiots.
What is increasingly leading the empire into a corner? Only key points.
Whether or not the digital central bank dollar is introduced, it would not be accepted outside the shrinking empire for reasons well known. With the growing loss of the U.S. dollar’s influence as the world’s reserve currency, maintaining world power becomes unaffordable.
SOC and BRICS are on the road to success. Even with temporary setbacks, such as in Brazil or Serbia or the Caucasus.
In more and more areas, the U.S. is being technologically outpaced. Oh, that reminds me, in the new Huawei P60 Pro, a great many of the sanctioned parts have been replaced by in-house developments. Taiwan’s chip industry sees more opportunities with the US or with mainland China?
China is getting hypersonic weapon systems from Russia. I also suspect the better engines for their jets soon.
Russia and China don’t need to reindustrialize like the US.
The strategic partnership between China and Russia should now be at a total level. Because an increasingly total war is being waged against them in all areas.
And very much more.
What does all this have to do with the battle for Bakhmut or how it is being waged? Simply everything. The empire has to act under time pressure. Russia, on the other hand, can take its time.
Just the thoughts of a layman.
I’m still not convinced that this much ballyhooed Ukrainian counteroffensive will ever materialize. It may be a pure disinformation campaign to draw Russian defenses towards Bakhmut and away from other strategic areas. If and when the counteroffensive does happen, I expect the results to be horrifying for the Ukies.
With fighters and missiles with destructive power flying freely on the Ukraine skies, I would think twice to send my soldiers and tanks for a counter-attack, but Zelensky has not other option. He is only a stupid clown in the warlords hands.
I just went to fill up my Pz 87 with diesel but my Credit Suisse Card was declined.
What was the question again?
Leaflets are being distributed to the Ukrainian troops asking them to lay down their arms and surrender. And relatives of Ukrainian POWs are begging Russia not to return them to Ukraine for fear of reprisals and being sent back to the front lines. Surrender is a good option for the Ukrainian troops who are suffering. They will receive medical care, shelter and sustenance and God willing, will live to see another day.
“Big Serge Thought” has recently posted an analysis: Apocalypse: Operation Barbarossa.
What is interesting is that numerous battle events occured in which the Germans decisively beat the Russians (WW II), but in the long run, the Germans lost the war (Russia had more ‘depth’ (manpower) and was willing and able to use it against Germany.) The point being, IMO, that it might be extremely difficult to assess anything in the Ukraine in the short run. Though not a foregone conclusion, if Russia applies a war of attrition against Ukraine, it doesn’t seem possible that Ukraine (or the US/Europe) has the resources or willpower to wage a war of movement or attrition against Russia. A long war favors Russia, especially with China as a backstop.
Warmongers awaiting Alcides/Hercules and his warriors to save them from disaster:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_6ouigfFNk
“Mira il ciel, vedrai d’Alcide le guerriere armi” …
… like Publius Quinctilius Varus in Teutoburg Forest …
Among the best information spaces, we always end up finding good surprises. This piece of music you chose from «Arminius» is marvellous.
Excellent text, the analogy with the battle of Gettysburg and the warning that we will have to consider in the next five days. It’s a decisive battle, but it still reminds me of the final part of the battle of Berlin, in the end of April of 1945. At that point, the Germans, desperate, threw everything they had and lost.
I think that the Ukrainians have a pretty good shot at winning a 4-5 day counter offensive as they don’t have to worry much about sustaining things for a long term. The Ukrainians are not very adverse to losing tons of men and material to achieve their goals so overwhelming the Russians with human/equipment waves works very well for them. It has in the past and I would bet that it will in this case. The problem comes afterwards as they will have lost more than the west can replace.
Presumably the penisist brought his piano to Chasov Yar to play a few tunes for the troops. After all, he is not competent to provide any military advice and giving the OK to attack could be done from Warsaw or Florida or wherever he normally hangs out.
Good article! I agree with most of it except the part about how a failed Ukrainian counter offensive would lead NATO to think twice before sending more military aid to Ukraine. NATO knows that if Putin wins in Ukraine, that will not be the end of his aggression. If Ukraine falls, Putin’s next target will be the Baltic states, with the opening move most likely against the Suwalki corridor. So NATO will keep sending weapons to Ukraine and the Ukrainians will keep fighting because they are fighting for their country’s survival. I’m also a little skeptical about the counter offensive being around Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are talking it up so much, that I think it might be a head fake, just like last fall when they talked up a Kherson offensive and then attacked and drove the Russians back around Kharkiv. I think that the real direction of the counter attack will be south towards Melitopol and Mariupol.
You need to lay down the CNN crack pipe.
There is no counteroffensive. Just more empty talk.
Real offensives are not announced until they’re well underway. The troops participating in the offensive aren’t even told about it. But they know, anyway, from experience, what’s going to happen. Their officers are certainly told about it. And told to keep quiet.
It’s a media offensive. If you win propaganda war, Russians will surrender, kill Putin, and give all their cookies to Nuland, or something along those lines.
LOL – Vlad juz begging for said to slaughter that many more. Go Vlad.
Do they have Magic Soil? (honk!)
We could send them some cannon fodder seeds to replenish.
Just read about a UKE conscript with no hands and this very page had one about a 54 year old freshly drafted for the glorious March To Moscow.
Duh, winning. (honk!)
I like that Larry bring historical examples from AMERICAN history. The ordinary American will just start chanting “nazi” on repeat five minutes into any political discussion and believing that he made an historical example.
A Polish Leopard 2A4 has been photographed near Donbass:
https://gab.com/Razumov/posts/110069629146693976
Could have been written for Bakhmut:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH4vmNvb7Ik