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Is U.S. Intelligence Really this Screwed UP?

8 June 2022 by Larry Johnson 45 Comments

The New York Times published a bewildering, disturbing story today on U.S. intelligence and the Ukraine–i.e., U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say.

But despite the flow of all this news to the public, American intelligence agencies have less information than they would like about Ukraine’s operations and possess a far better picture of Russia’s military, its planned operations and its successes and failures, according to current and former officials.

Governments often withhold information from the public for operational security. But these information gaps within the U.S. government could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to decide how to target military aid as it sends billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine.

I am sure that the average layperson read the piece and was not alarmed. But those with even a modicum of intelligence experience were shocked by the revelations in this piece.

Andrei Martyanov’s reaction is a case in point:

Or, if you wish with “We told you so” titles. I wrote so much about US “intel” and how it is not really an intel that I don’t have time to list all those occasions. But numbers of VSU (Nazi) losses during SMO which begin to circulate now give an impression on the progress of Russian operation in 404. Of course, all this info has a massive geopolitical impact, especially on the United States which, as always, came up with absolute BS narrative which is collapsing really fast. 

Well, NYT decided to start steering clear of this whole Russia “lost in Ukraine” BS it promoted together with neocon crazies, and begins this ever familiar tune of the “intel failure”. Right.  . . .

Hm, how about I put it bluntly–the U.S. never had clear picture on anything, especially on Russia, or, as a private case, SMO and completely bought into Ukie propaganda, which shows a complete incompetence of the “intel” in the US. 

For those of you who have not worked in the U.S. intelligence community, let me help you understand the problems raised by this piece.

First, there are four basic types of raw intelligence collected–human source, intercepted communications, imagery and electronic signals. The people and technology employed to collect this raw intelligence are not left to their own devices to figure out what should be collected. In other words, a CIA case officer does not get out of bed in the morning and ask himself (or herself) what should I do today in terms of getting intel from my human agent? Neither does the NSA analyst make a random decision about what conversations to tap and decipher.

Second, Everything is done according to a collection plan. Collection plans are put together a year or two in advance of the plan being implemented and the plans are assembled under the guidance of staff who work for the Director of National Intelligence. Those plans are updated on the fly if a crisis burbles to the surface.

While it is likely true that the collection plan for Russia is more robust than the plan for Ukraine, there absolutely had to be a plan for Ukraine. The only country in the world without a collection plan (i.e., a plan that directs the intelligence agencies on what information to collect on a specific country) is the United States.

So take a new gander at the NY Times article. As a former intel analyst I would be tasking the collectors to answer questions like these:

  • Why are we not collecting intelligence on the plans and intentions of President Zelensky, his cabinet and his advisors?
  • What are the battle plans drawn up by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense and are those plans being executed?
  • What is Ukraine’s military’s order of battle?
  • What ground units have been deployed to specific locations in Ukraine?
  • Are those units fully manned and equipped?
  • What ground losses have the Ukrainian units incurred in specific engagements with the Russians?
  • How have Ukrainian armored units performed and what losses have they sustained?
  • Is Ukraine’s missile arsenal still intact and is it carrying out effective strikes against key concentrations of Russian units?
  • Is Ukraine’s air force capable of reconstituting and challenging Russia for control of Ukraine’s air space?

The New York Times report, if accurate, reveals shocking incompetence on the part of Joe Biden and his national security team. Consider this nugget of manure:

Even without a complete picture of Ukraine’s military strategy and situation, the Biden administration has pushed forward new capabilities, like the rocket artillery systems President Biden announced last week. Ukraine is awaiting the arrival of more powerful Western weapons systems as both sides in the war suffer heavy losses in the eastern Donbas region of the country.

Would you give a handgun to a man with no arms and no legs? Hell no. But the NY Times is admitting that the United States is supplying weapon systems without any idea whether there are competent personnel in Ukraine capable of using the weapons. An equally important question, clearly not answered, is whether those weapon systems can be deployed into the combat theater?

Frankly, I find it hard to believe that there are not solid analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency who know the answers to all these questions. The real problem may not be a lack of intelligence. Nope. It is the fear of telling the politicians hard truths they do not want to hear.

Given the billions of dollars the United States is spending on “intelligence” collection systems, it is time for the Congress and the American public to demand that the intelligence services do their damn job.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. My Comment says

    8 June 2022 at 20:51

    The entire US organizational culture, whether public or private, is built around the concept of good idea boss. You never want to tell the higher ups things they don’t want to know. It is best to let them fail then, if they seem to genuinely want the truth, you can tell them but be sure to have an exit strategy.

    In US corporations new employees soon learn not to seek the best approach to solving a problem. Always jump on the popular bandwagon, then no one can blame you for not being a team player or backing the wrong idea

    Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      8 June 2022 at 20:54

      Are you from india ?

      Reply
    • Karantov says

      8 June 2022 at 23:56

      I remember being at a conference once and being told that some US Generals have colonels as chief of staffs, those colonels jobs are to prevent them from hearing anything that will upset them and that if those colonels do a good job they can expect a star of their own.

      Reply
    • Bear River says

      9 June 2022 at 11:16

      goes hand in hand with the Peter Principle’s theory of mobility in a hierarchy – employees tend to rise to their level of incompetence. Once one is no longer competent, one remains at this level.

      Reply
  2. buntalanlucu says

    8 June 2022 at 20:53

    I doubt the real US intel analyst and data collection are this stupid , it is the insane political appointee from the intelligence side that skew the analysis into partisan politics.. The insanity of Russia-Gate from so called ‘intelligence’ and the hilarious hunter biden laptop-gate cover up.

    Also the obvious , no one from epstein’s client list and from the blackmail videotapes are persecuted or punished. It is as if the evidence are swept under the rug or given to the real owner of the videos aka mossad.

    just how deep is israeli intelligence and symphatizer in US intelligence today ?

    Reply
    • Malik says

      8 June 2022 at 22:02

      “I doubt the real US inteI analyst and data collection are this stupid.”

      I would sound disrespectful if I said I don’t believe you can be so unwise (because you’re not stupid and I want to have respectful dialogue) to believe otherwise?

      Now, in support of your argument ( and the only rationale I buy into other than STUPID AS SHIT) is support for the narrative out there that refers to the USA as the “Empire of Chaos” Pepe Escobar is one of the persons who pushes this meme. He’s a brilliant geo-political thinker.

      Divide and conquer is the foundation of chaos. The Neo-Cons banked on their arrogance and their bets on US Middle East Wars Policy rooted in “local grievances” such as sectarian conflict pitting Sunni against Shia, and dangle carrots and sticks to “mix it up.” You want more “intelligence analysis (lol) the “real grownup stuff” well you’re getting it from the “paper of record” and WaPo and Daily Mail, Financial Times, Politico and other western mouthpieces.

      MBS is talking to Israel, and unfolding, yet unpredictable strategy of the friend of my friend, enemy of my enemy version of chaos. What happens if the Saudi’s recognize Israel and in essence dishes the Palestinian cause? The wealthiest/richest company in the world (neck and neck with BlackRock) is the Saudi ARAMCO. The Houthi’s have proven time and again their ability to strike Aramco with less than state of the art drone weaponry. How many Houthi drone attacks ( w/n Iranian supplied) cause a disruption of refining activities in Saudi Arabia resulting in additional global oil shocks that benefit all of the sanctioned–Iran and Russia and Venezuela– and China and India because they buy oil at a discount further fueling their economic dominance.
      Although I’d bet you lunch India is the “cutout” for oil and diesel distribution between Moscow and the “West” especially the economically suicidal maniacs in EU.

      You have White Nationalists and neo-Nazis and ISIS fighting side-by-side in Ukraine as mercenaries and you don’t believe the REAL analysts could be so stupid? Here’s the rub. They are stupid from top to bottom, our mental models are defective and terribly politicized, be it from the Left, Right, or Middle. How do you suppose the US is PRESENTLY involved in so many armed conflicts? And can’t seem to win any of them?

      Let’s not even venture into the Byzantine maze of the Kurdish situation and who’s suppling arms and promises of suzerainty to whom. Only Erdogan can keep up with that hot mess.

      Chaos is a strategy, intended or not. You have way too much faith in Western education and intelligence I fear. Why don’t you do an essay on Western Intelligence Failures for your own check-in? I mean that, seriously.

      These people are soul-less idiots, you don’t think they calculated or considered that Russian sanctions would risk world-wide famine? Or are you positing that they would have never wagered this if only the “real analysts” were consulted?

      The real analysts are ghouls. Analysts and ideologues are incompatible, its significant reason that Larry didn’t get “personal” with Ritter anymore than I have to get personal with you.

      I “technically” would not be on this website but I am because I’m an analyst and not an “ideologist.” lol

      The Conservative Voices in this country are the loudest ANTI-WAR, pro-USA Nation Building voices in our country and they are troubled on multiple levels by this ginormous Crime Against Humanity and waste of federal dollars. I don’t give a damn how they feel about CRT or Voting Rights Act, or abortion-rights, –you get the picture??–because I analyze and don’t theorize…that ain’t happening in Foggy Bottom or Brussels.

      Yes, these intelligence analysts are certified fools and political tools and climbers, ideologically trapped. How else do you explain a “Pivot to Asia” Biden version as a Pivot to War with China” when Russia is kicking ass and shaping geo-politics for the next Century? Give me a community college class of freshmen Western Civ. students and I can convince them of the magnitude of this shit show.

      Reply
      • buntalanlucu says

        9 June 2022 at 05:48

        pretty long and meaty post , my intention is to show that i doubt the US intelligence is a monolithic organization full of stupid and political partisan analyst. There’s obvious professional data collection people , then there’s the analysts who give their report to their respective branch of inteligence (i assume that mossad get access to raw data collection and have their own analyst)

        Just like the veteran ex intelligence people , they are not monolithic either , look at ray mcgovern , ritter and our host LJ , who question the narrative of the current administration. Then we got ex intelligence people like Pat Lang and his sidekick TTG the lithuanian clown (ex green beret he said) who shamelessly ran IO supporting govt narrative like loyal neocon dogs..

        As for India they are fine as nation if they ditch the incredibly blind love fest with anything american. the path that modi seek to be on the good side of USA is a foolish patch considering the size of india and the power it can wield as balancer instead of being used to counter china.

        too bad the loudest US intelligence voice belong to those who blindly support disinformation and fake news to support their side of politics..

        Reply
        • Bear River says

          9 June 2022 at 11:21

          Malik and Buntalanlucu, enjoying the reasoned dialog here. nothing to add at this point, excellent discussion.

          Reply
        • Malik says

          9 June 2022 at 20:47

          i agree with you and that is the importance of respectful dialogue as Bear River concurs.

          I learn the most from website where people disagree respectfully. Often we learn we’re speaking the same “language” or more accurately thesis.

          I will cirlcle back to you on USA obligation to protect Taiwan because I

          Reply
      • HowardH says

        9 June 2022 at 11:12

        I like this post for its substantive observations.

        Just one point, I don’t think “conservative vs liberal/left/progressive/whatever you want to call it” is a useful distinction anymore, at least in discussions of war and peace, because the corruption has reached everywhere. Would you call Lindsey Graham a “conservative” in this sense. Or Mitch McConnell? Or John McCain? Until roughly Obama’s first term, questioning of natsec-supported narratives was a “left” thing. After then, not so much. Even the Squad, which used to make anti-imperialist noises, have become as useless as Pelosi in these matters.

        Those who are truly principled on this subject, like Rand Paul, will continue to be anti-war even if Trump gets back in. But I bet a lot (hopefully not all) of the rest of the “conservative anti-war” sentiment will melt away if the President has an “R” after his name. Check out the Libertarians over at antiwar.com. They will interview and platform anybody as long as they have a good critique of the natsec state and its misadventures. I’m no Libertarian, but I think Scott Horton is a national treasure. He has over 5000 archived interviews with everyone from Noam Chomsky to Pat Buchanan. https://www.theamericanconservative.com has heterodox viewpoints. And NakedCapitalism.com is practically a one-stop venue. I believe that they were where I first found links to this blog, andrei martyanov, the saker, dreizen report, and many others. They are basically a bunch of progressive economists who won’t shy away from anything that makes sense

        Reply
      • Kerwas says

        10 June 2022 at 01:33

        “Let’s not even venture into the Byzantine maze of the Kurdish situation and who’s supplying arms and promises of suzerainty to whom. Only Erdogan can keep up with that hot mess.”

        Oh i could open THAT up for you…but…let me put it that way: i doubt that Erdogan has any real picture of the situation anymore, after the “purge” Post regime change attempt, his MIT may have a better gist than most, given the Barzani involvement, but thats it.
        And suplying arms to them or promise them heaven is only the small part of it i promise you.

        His countervote on sweden and Finns have made me look into ‘that’ and o boy i was also not aware of this part of it.

        Given that the Whole Kurd thing was probably cooked up by Sykes and Picot over hundred Years ago you can start to guess how deep this rabbit hole really goes.

        Reply
  3. Eric Newhill says

    8 June 2022 at 21:12

    “The real problem may not be a lack of intelligence. Nope. It is the fear of telling the politicians hard truths they do not want to hear.” Bingo! We have a winner.

    Same as Iraqi WMD; funnel, filter, create a false reality and make the politicians and beneficiaries of backroom deals happy.

    Reply
  4. dodgy says

    8 June 2022 at 21:37

    I wouldn’t give the intelligence agencies a free pass. No doubt the “fail upwards” culture that permeates every level of government is alive and well in the intelligence community. Intel draws extensively from the same sorry pool of conformist Ivy League graduates that the political class does. Write a thesis on how Russia is just a gas station masquerading as a country and you get the job as a Russia expert. Write an accurate thesis on Russia and you are likely unemployable by any branch of government.

    Reply
  5. Groucho says

    8 June 2022 at 22:47

    Congress demanding that anyone do their damn job? It’s a nice thought but I have to admit that I had a good laugh over that one. Perhaps when the next 10,000+ page bill comes up for a vote that no one reads and is stuffed with $billions if not $trillions of pork, there may be a line item or two adressing the intelligence services doing their damn job. Or maybe not.

    Reply
  6. Fergi says

    8 June 2022 at 23:12

    Truth is a ugly thing to folks that have an agenda. You can’t continue to be wealthy and tell people the truth. The truth will mean a change in direction and that would mean a change in leadership. For every kind of beasts, and of birds, and of serpents, and of things in the sea, is tamed, and hath been tamed of mankind: But the tongue can no man tame; it is an unruly evil, full of deadly poison. (James 3:7-8 (KJV)

    Reply
    • Fergi says

      8 June 2022 at 23:13

      Sorry I should have put a break between my comment and the Bible verse I Posted.

      Reply
  7. local_host says

    8 June 2022 at 23:13

    hey Larry –

    Excellent topic and I do recall from my active duty career the slow erosion of HUMINT in favor of techical data collection.

    A branch off this topic thread might be what the RF intelligence services could be planning to facilitate a coup d’état and a post-Zelensky govt under Russian control.

    Some type of Russian political/military coalition team in Kiev would be needed to control the former Ukraine from the Dneiper river west to the Polish border.

    That region cannot be left to NATO as a privileged sanctuary as occured with Laos and Pakistan from earlier US interventions.

    I’d like to think that Russian analysts have planned several moves ahead on the 3-D chessboard playing out in the region.

    The RF HUMINT assets in the former Ukraine must be impressive, although we won’t know until this history is written.

    Reply
  8. Sam McGowan says

    8 June 2022 at 23:15

    First, this is an article in the media, the most dishonest, corrupt and incompetent institution ever known to man. Second, it is in the New York Times which is a mouthpiece for US intelligence, particularly the FBI and the CIA. My experience with intelligence is mainly reading the classifieds – we were required to read them periodically – in my squadron and sitting through numerous intelligence briefings. I also had a roommate who was the intelligence clerk in our squadron and my brother-in-law is a retired US Army intelligence officer. Oh, and I know someone who was a CIA contractor going all the way back the late 1940s and the Indonesian war against the Dutch.

    My people do not understand that the role of intelligence is to collect information by one of the methods Larry mentioned. (Another method not mentioned is debriefing flight crews and others after missions.) It’s not new, it dates back at least to the late nineteenth century. Even Lincoln had his Pinkertons. That information then goes to analysts who try to make head or tail of it and write a report. They don’t have concrete information – those electronic intercepts have to be interpreted by linguists who spent two years in a college language court and photos are interpreted by specialists who are “interpreting,” meaning they may or may not come to the correct conclusion – but are actually making educated (or perhaps not so educated) guesses. That analysis then passed up the line until it might actually arrive in the White House (but usually only goes to a headquarters somewhere.) How valuable that information really is is open to conjecture.

    Regarding Ukraine, the Biden administration is desperate for Ukraine to somehow “win” or at least kill a lot of Russians. Ukraine claims they’re doing just that but they’re also experts at putting out propaganda so who knows? The US intelligence community realizes that Russia is killing Ukrainians left and right and are very close to achieving their objectives in Donbas. Consequently, they’re covering their cracks. That’s what this article is all about.

    By the way, intelligence doesn’t actually win battles. Battles are won by the troops on the ground and in the air. (I’d say on the sea except there hasn’t been a sea battle since 1945.)

    Reply
  9. Sam McGowan says

    8 June 2022 at 23:15

    First, this is an article in the media, the most dishonest, corrupt and incompetent institution ever known to man. Second, it is in the New York Times which is a mouthpiece for US intelligence, particularly the FBI and the CIA. My experience with intelligence is mainly reading the classifieds – we were required to read them periodically – in my squadron and sitting through numerous intelligence briefings. I also had a roommate who was the intelligence clerk in our squadron and my brother-in-law is a retired US Army intelligence officer. Oh, and I know someone who was a CIA contractor going all the way back the late 1940s and the Indonesian war against the Dutch.

    My people do not understand that the role of intelligence is to collect information by one of the methods Larry mentioned. (Another method not mentioned is debriefing flight crews and others after missions.) It’s not new, it dates back at least to the late nineteenth century. Even Lincoln had his Pinkertons. That information then goes to analysts who try to make head or tail of it and write a report. They don’t have concrete information – those electronic intercepts have to be interpreted by linguists who spent two years in a college language court and photos are interpreted by specialists who are “interpreting,” meaning they may or may not come to the correct conclusion – but are actually making educated (or perhaps not so educated) guesses. That analysis then passed up the line until it might actually arrive in the White House (but usually only goes to a headquarters somewhere.) How valuable that information really is is open to conjecture.

    Regarding Ukraine, the Biden administration is desperate for Ukraine to somehow “win” or at least kill a lot of Russians. Ukraine claims they’re doing just that but they’re also experts at putting out propaganda so who knows? The US intelligence community realizes that Russia is killing Ukrainians left and right and are very close to achieving their objectives in Donbas. Consequently, they’re covering their cracks. That’s what this article is all about.

    By the way, intelligence doesn’t actually win battles. Battles are won by the troops on the ground and in the air. (I’d say on the sea except there hasn’t been a sea battle since 1945.)

    Reply
  10. Sam McGowan says

    8 June 2022 at 23:18

    “to be interpreted by linguists who spent two years in a college language court” – “court” should be class.

    Reply
  11. Michael Murry says

    8 June 2022 at 23:34

    I don’t want to get all-historical-and-stuff, but surely you remember the (in)famous “Downing Street” memo where the Brits came to see what Intelligence the U.S. had on Iraq only to discover that : “the intelligence is being fixed around the policy.” Not that understanding that risible truth did anything to stop Tony Blair from falling into lockstep behind George “Deputy Dubya” Bush and his idiotic “you’re either with us or the terrorists” false dichotomy. Same shit, different day.

    Reply
  12. Michael Murry says

    8 June 2022 at 23:52

    One of my favorite observations of the obvious from the comment thread on Andrei Maryanov’s blog:

    irf520

    How can [the US/NATO] be “unclear on the Ukrainian war strategy” when they devised it? The Ukrainian army has been trained by NATO (i.e. the US) for the last 8 years and they have been doing what the US tells them.

    What they mean is the “strategy” they came up with isn’t working and won’t work, but they can never admit that.

    So the US/NATO military geniuses who devised — and made the Ukrainians carry out — their “prairie-dog town” and “fish in a barrel” strategies (for making the Russians get tired killing so many Ukrainian troops so quickly) now can’t remember what they spent eight years telling the Ukrainian dupes to do? That sounds more like a willful amnesia (i.e., CYA) problem than one involving any degree of “intelligence.” In fact, can we not just cease using this risible misnomer “intelligence”when discussing anything to do with the fuck-up-and-move-up U.S. military?

    Reply
  13. Pontrilas says

    9 June 2022 at 01:00

    Well when things get this bad the SOP seems to be…
    Someone is going to have to be the fall guy and pay for it.

    The sad part is that is well understood and planned for.

    Reply
  14. Antiwar7 says

    9 June 2022 at 01:16

    Could this just be standard CYA (cover your a**)? As in setting up the cover for a future: “Oops, the intelligence was faulty. Gosh darn it, that’s why things didn’t work out as planned.”

    Just like in Iraq. I’m sure they knew there were no WMD (weapons of mass destruction) there. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have dared invade in the first place.

    Reply
    • Claudius says

      9 June 2022 at 07:03

      All of the above!
      Ivy League incompetence. State U grads aren’t welcome, especially at State and CIA. Hence group think within the structure that frames their thinking. Group think at a galactic level.
      DC butt kissing. Agree with boss and group. Anything else Is heretic.
      Rice bowls. Everybody owns their piece of the action; challenging somebody else’s isn’t welcome. I learned this the hard way; I killed a tiny IT program (less than $1M) and got despised for it.
      Too many bureaucrats, too fixed in position. The structure itself breeds conformity; top levels work to present united front to pols who control money. Disagreement no welcome.
      Thirty years ago I read lots of reports, daily. The DIA ones were brief, and I assumed factual. Heaven knows what they are like now.
      Fortunately didn’t see much State or CIA product; likely not distributed to the unwashed like me. The few I saw were long winded.

      Reply
  15. Carl Schurz says

    9 June 2022 at 02:20

    I suspect a rearguard action by the secret services. The reality is overwhelming and needs to be rewritten for the taxpayer in a way that ends up not being responsible. The others are to blame. Since offers Zelenski.

    Reply
  16. Stephen says

    9 June 2022 at 02:21

    I thought that US “Intelligence” wrote Ukraine’s war strategy. If it was not clear then they simply needed to explain it better. Or call Zelensky to check he understood it by reading it back to them.

    Brian Berletic New Atlas has a video up on this theme. Makes similar points to you and Andrei, Larry. Suggests that this is all part of walking back the strategy of supporting Ukraine and a cover for doing so. “We were misled”. But they trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops: such a narrative has zero credibility with anyone who has bothered to stay informed.

    Next as part of this roll back: we may see articles about what people really want in the Donbass. Let’s see!

    Reply
  17. globaladvances says

    9 June 2022 at 02:26

    Hello Larry, you have addressed this NYT article and the possible US intelligence failure. I am not so sure, (as already stated by some of the comments). My basic assumption is that:

    In order to have political power, you have to have a political machine, perhaps taking many years to build. Zelensky, being a tv actor, has Zero political machine.

    Therefore the Question to ask is Who’s political machine installed Zelensky and his crew? Was it the Ukrainian Oligarchs, (that are always fighting among themselves)? Was it Kolomoyskyi? We sometimes hear this fairytale.

    It has to be America, doesn’t it, masquerading as NATO? Therefore Zelensky and his crew are a big zero, only a “loudspeaker” that we are mesmerized with. But who is on the microphone? Why try to analyze what the loudspeaker’s strategy is?

    1-4 That fully answers your first 4 questions. American strategists are the author.

    5-6 Are the units fully manned, and what are the losses? Perhaps this has been attempted to hide. Or maybe they don’t know, since Ukraine rarely collects their dead bodies, (or often their own wounded).

    7-8 How does Ukrainian armor and missiles preform? Which way is the battle going fully answers that. If they were performing, the Russians would be moving back, or never would have gotten a foothold.

    9. What air force? I have never seen evidence of any destruction by a Ukrainian jet. (There must be some successes??) While these days the Russian MOD is claiming a total of 192 aircraft, 130 helicopters, and 1,150 unmanned aerial vehicles, shot down.

    If these considerations have any truth, then the NYT, and the learned experts that have raised a few cautions, are nothing but a shadow-puppet show for your and my benefit. I pay them absolutely no mind.

    Reply
  18. Pontrilas says

    9 June 2022 at 02:43

    Credibility is not required for the masses.
    Mr Z’s list of problems gets longer everyday.
    As an outsider looking in, I feel Mr P is no longer top of that list!

    Reply
  19. michel says

    9 June 2022 at 06:17

    Hello from Switzerland.

    First of all, thanks for your very interesting analyses and posts. It’s refreshing to see that people around the world are refusing to definitively turn off their brain. Exposing inconsistencies, globalized propaganda and discussing it is the only right and responsible way to follow.

    When reading your articles and listening to your interviews I’m however kind of surprised by one observation: it seems to me that while you hightlight facts and propaganda, I see no analysis about the underlying causes except for stupidity and incompetence. It is as if those two elements were the sole causes to the current situation.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I have the feeling that your analyses and some of your conclusions are based on the strong belief that the governing instances should take care of their population (which is valid and respectable, it is the way things should be in a perfect world)

    If we base our way of thinking on this “precondition”, I agree on the fact that we observe stupid decisions that are made, that intelligence seems to be screwed up, that probably many deciders and their staff are plain dumb and as such dangerous. Period, no need to ask “why ?”

    But is this precondition valid ? As I wrote, I agree that they “should” take care of the population but “are they really” ? Is it their objective or is their objective different ? And are the masses able to detect that these are stupid decisions and bad decisions will lead to even more problems ?

    My opinion is that the masses are not able to detect the danger and are not able to imagine that there might be a purpose behind this “apparent stupidity”. (IMHO the destruction of the education level and religion in western countries during the last 30 years was aiming at this result, or at least at making sure that peoples’ ability to detect stupidity and evil is “weakened”, but that’s another topic.)

    What we can observe is the following pattern:

    “event” -> distorted communication which plays with peoples’ emotions -> stupid decision -> worse event in reaction to the decision -> communication to blame the opposite side, and to increase the emotional weight of the situation -> new stupid decision using people’s emotions as a trigger -> repeat until people don’t know what to think anymore except that “we are the good ones, they are the bad ones”.

    We are in a loop of stupid decisions which leads to destruction, death, loss of wealth, increased anger, fear. IMHO we cannot only speak about “stupidity” anymore. People need to wake up and realize that what is happening might be meant to make the masses accept a war or at least make them accept something they would have not accepted otherwise and which is probably not for their own good.

    Let me end with this proverb: “there is no smoke without fire”, and this beautiful quote of Charles Baudelaire:

    “The devil’s finest trick is to convince you that he doesn’t exist.”

    Best regards from Switzerland and sorry for my “approximate” english,

    Michel

    Reply
    • Ash says

      9 June 2022 at 14:32

      Good point.

      I would be interested in your view on the rationale behind the decision makers re war push

      Tactically you have it

      Reply
  20. Vallhall_Rising says

    9 June 2022 at 07:27

    My two cents worth (which is really worth about .0000000004 % of a cent in the current US economy):

    – “Intel drives operations”…without good intel the US is just doing recon in force or swinging at objects while blindfolded

    – In the US…emotional reaction of the populace always gets more attention and action than facts…so under post Cold War administrations (Bush I through Biden but Trump excluded) the objective of US “intelligence” is to manipulate the collection plan to fit the political narrative (propaganda if you will) and thus influence or control the emotional reaction of the US populace–most Americans do very little critical thinking

    – Russia is really good at OPSEC…there are two stated UKR objectives (1) de-nazify, and (2) de-militarize…but what are the objectives that we don’t know about?

    – Not sure we are ever getting back to “normal” domestically or geopolitically…we are at an historical point in civilization…after all of “this” is said and done we’re either going the direction of the Great Reset (New World Order filth) or the Great Bifurcation where geopolitics are divided along two or more ideologies…sound like Cold War redux…I sure hope so, a case can be made that the world was actually stable and secure during the Cold War I era where the US and Soviet Union kept the world in political check

    Reply
  21. Yash says

    9 June 2022 at 08:38

    I think there is another reason for the NYT article – CYA for their previous/on-going articles, which are part of the infowar/hybrid war/psyops.

    If you admit those articles were deliberately/knowingly wrong, basically admitting your are part of the “Mighty Wurlitzer”, folks won’t trust you go forward. // Even if you don’t admit it, but don’t explain why (the CYA), folks won’t *pay attention to you* (which is worse than folks not trusting you, in the news business), as they’ll say – they are useless, got it so wrong – why read stuff that is so wrong. Not worth the time or money.

    This way, you can say, well, we got it all wrong because our sources (IC) got it all wrong, because they are some combination of: dumb, weak/unwilling to speak truth to power, etc., etc.

    But we won’t get it wrong next time, so please keep reading/paying for our paper.

    Reply
  22. James Owen says

    9 June 2022 at 11:45

    In the early 80’s, when I was in middle school, I was shocked at the incompetence of the government, and of bureaucracies, generally. Afterwards, I took it for granted as par for the course. I still do. I’d be shocked if they actually managed to do anything right, without screwing it up.

    Reply
  23. Claudius says

    9 June 2022 at 12:06

    Those who want to read about a serious and highly successful intelligence organization should study Sir Francis Walsingham. He was devoted to Queen and country, clever and very devious. He dealt with continuing and very real threats to the throne, gathering info, intercepting and decyphering letters, and trapping enemies of the state.
    He is one of the greats of intell.

    Reply
  24. Foxexpress says

    9 June 2022 at 12:27

    It seems to me that you are building an off ramp for Ukraine on the basis they did not tell you what was going on, in fact it’s common knowledge that Nato planners are in this up to their ears, what you are really seeing is the absolute incompetence of the Nato planners and strategists and tacticians who have been out maneuvered from the start, coupled with the insertion of fancy wonder weapons that do nothing, and the complete lack of military talent from the Ukrainians on the ground. Information wars you are good at, but that’s useless when your enemy does not possess a radio! I see reports in UK media even today that are totally made up. Pain is coming to the western ego and it’s coming fast. Witness today western mercs getting the death sentence in the Donbass for proven war crimes against civilians. Hardly a good look is it?

    Reply
  25. lonl says

    9 June 2022 at 13:26

    IMHO the US both runs Ukraine and does not. Consider a puppet state such as the former S Vietnam, run and supported fully by the US yet operating at the same time under its own internal historical-cultural, post colonial dynamic. Then the US got one puppet deposed for another until finally the whole deal collapsed. Ukraine is now a puppet state with its own internal dynamics not fully controllable by US overseers. Thus the continued need for intel, just to run the US’ nefarious game. But everything people say here re “go along to get along” as the big dynamic running the Pentagon, State, etc, and causing the visible morass in foreign relations, is probably now the major operating system for the country’s social, political and economic setup as a whole. When major cultural organizations in the US put up the current puppet’s flag and cancel Russian artists of highest stature, isn’t that going along to get along? When investigative journalism has become a dead letter? When you don’t stand a chance of winning an election without kowtowing long and hard to the authorities of your preferred mainstream party, raising money for them while you’re at it, isn’t that more of the same? These are just a few examples. Care to prove me wrong?

    Reply
  26. Skorpion9mm says

    9 June 2022 at 13:45

    Its sad but the CIA has been pathetic since the Dulles years.
    Reinhardt Gehlen played the incredulous Dulles like a cheap fiddle while raking in $millions for his fake “network”

    The CIA had no idea the Berlin Wall was going up, but balanced that by have no idea it was coming down.

    The CIA I think projected “robust economic growth” for the Soviet Union, for 1991/1992

    Reply
  27. Ash says

    9 June 2022 at 14:22

    “Even without a complete picture of Ukraine’s military strategy and situation”

    I don’t buy this for a minute. This war and it’s tactics and military commanders are US and NATO. They created and drive this war as France 24 undercover report showed.

    The decision to reject Russia peace treaty in Dec 21 was Bidens not Zekensky.

    This article is fake news. An attempt to distance Brandon and his fruitcakes from a war they are losing.

    They know what’s going on. Let’s not give them that get out if jail free card. US satellites are eyes on ground. US military is embedded in UKR.

    They know. They just don’t want to break and own it

    Reply
  28. Ash says

    9 June 2022 at 14:25

    The CIA no longer does much intelligence. It does strategy. It implements political and possibly deep state strategies to further objectives it’s leadership seek.

    It’s about finding the facts to fit the narrative. Not letting facts form the narrative.

    Reply
  29. local_host says

    9 June 2022 at 16:19

    re: Michel from Switzerland

    Your comment about some other underlying cause for the intelligence failure besides stupidity and incompetence rings true.

    I would submit that a logical conclusion to the real cause would be what to do about the perpetrators.

    How do we get them out of the decision making loop to stop further destructive actions ?
    And then, how do we hold them accountable for their decisions?

    I’m not aware of any political leader or senior military commander who was prosecuted or court-martialed for any actions in Vietnam, Afganistan or Iraq.

    Welcome to the blog..

    Reply
  30. D.E. Murray says

    9 June 2022 at 17:02

    Not buying the entire article, Larry. It’s a crazily written piece – one sentence doesn’t really follow the next – but the main thing is: it’s BS. The war is being run out of the Pentagon. The Blob is covering its ass. Zelensky has gone from being a useful idiot to a useless one an they are getting ready to offload him.

    Reply
  31. Rebel Wop says

    10 June 2022 at 00:25

    Larry, In An interview with a group called The Foreign Policy Review at https://youtu.be/KXyPDpeHqFE
    Scott Ritter presents conclusions that give a different picture on Russian losses (20k?), ISR efficacy, and asserts significant, if not growing, Ukrainian capabilities and effectiveness due to US and Western European training and weapons deliveries. Or is it enabling unexpected endurance to draw this out longer? Again he does not say Ukraine will win and stands by Russia will win. Could you address his analysis as presented the interview? He also takes a swipe at Andrei Martyanov. This saddens me. I have my own bias. I’ve concluded that Russia’s cause is just and my country’s foreign policy is neither just nor wise. I say this out of love for my country, but not for those in power in DC.

    Reply
    • D.E. Murray says

      10 June 2022 at 15:19

      Ritter seems to change his opinions about the Ukrainians every day.

      Reply
  32. ISL says

    10 June 2022 at 03:26

    Why would mass formation not also affect intelligence agencies?

    Reply

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I am a bona fide Son of American Revolutionaries. At least 24 of my ancestors, men and women, fought to free the American Colonies from British rule. Some died for the cause of liberty. Though two and a half centuries have passed since my great grandfathers and grandmothers took up arms, the principles they fought for remain valid and relevant to the 21st Century. This blog is dedicated to the pursuit of truth without regard to partisan advantage. I welcome like minded patriots.

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