War is a guilty, vicarious pleasure as long as you are not hunkered in a basement or trench praying that an artillery shell does not score a direct hit on your position. Rumbling tanks, screeching rockets and missiles and troops firing automatic weapons are the stuff that Hollywood trots out to entertain the masses that tune in to watch a war flick or, even better, live feeds from the front lines courtesy of intrepid reporters.
But the real damage from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is economic and will determine the outcome of this war. It is not only wreaking havoc in Ukraine, it is causing real damage around the world. Some believe that the United States and NATO are using Ukraine as a lever to weaken Russia and get rid of Putin. Putin’s crime? He refused to be the prison bitch of the west. But there is a RAND report from January 2022 that suggests something darker, even diabolical. More about that later. (NOTE–This may not be a genuine RAND report. Take it with a grain of salt. Regardless of its veracity, the sanctions on Russian are having a devastating effect on the German economy.)
The economic sanctions were designed to hurt all Russians–not just Putin and his key leaders. You remember the heady days early in the war when Russian assets outside of Russia were being seized, Russian oligarchs, including those who opposed Putin, had their property confiscated, and artists and athletes were treated like lepers with active Ebola. The west effectively declared a non-shooting war on Russia and sat back waiting for the Russian economy to collapse.
But that backfired and did so in a big, unexpected way. Rather than fold like a cheap tent in a hurricane, the Russian economy continued to chug along with minimal inflation because the smart guys and gals in Washington, London and Berlin failed to do their homework. They did not realize that Russia’s position as a major exporter of oil, gas, fertilizer and other critical metals and rare earth minerals insulated Russia from the pain the west wanted so desperately to inflict. And Russia pivoted to forging stronger ties with China, whose economy was in trouble, and accelerated the development of an alternative international reserve currency that would enable Russia to trade with other nations outside the NATO club.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost and it is bad news, not for Russia, but for Europe. Maybe you missed these recent reports:
The energy in crisis in Germany is turning into a manufacturing crisis, with an executive at the ArcelorMittal steel company saying that the German wing of the company can no longer compete due to soaring energy coasts.
“Production in Germany is currently no longer competitive,” said Reiner Blaschek, the CEO of ArcelorMittal Germany, which recently shut down two plants in the country. He is calling for quick political intervention, saying, “We need competitive energy prices for industry.”
Gas and electricity prices, which have soared in recent months due to sanctions and Russia’s decision to cut gas flows, have left many industrial companies with input costs too high to remain profitable, and many economic experts are forecasting further pain for Germany’s core industrial sector, which would have knock-on effects for the rest of the German economy.
https://rmx.news/article/production-in-germany-is-no-longer-competitive-ceo-at-worlds-largest-steel-manufacturer-warns-of-crisis-as-plants-shut-down/
Did you catch that? ArcelorMittal already has closed two plants in Germany. That means unemployed, skilled workers. And that unemployment reverberates to other parts of the German economy. Those workers no longer have extra cash to spend in restaurants and bars. They don’t have the dough to buy new homes or remodel their kitchens or bathrooms. All of this a result of “soaring energy prices” that is a direct consequence of idiotic green policies and German hostility towards Russia manifested via sanctions. The surge in the price of gas and oil is not going to abate in the near term and Russia has tightened the screws on Europe by cutting off the gas supply from Nordstream.
Sweden, who recently joined NATO, is getting an economic punch in the nose as well:
Swedish appliance maker Electrolux AB announced a cost reduction program after reporting a plunge in demand for its home appliances across Europe and the US.
The world’s second-largest home appliances manufacturer after Whirlpool said, “market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alarm-bells-sound-worlds-second-largest-appliance-company-reports-demand-plunge
The European Union also is struggling to deal with strong economic headwinds unleashed by the sanctions on Russia:
Friday’s meeting in Brussels capped a frenzied week of government activity across the 27-nation bloc in which it became clear just how complex it is to forge a common response to the energy crisis given the breadth of challenges. . . .
Russia upped the ante just over a week ago, when Gazprom PJSC cut off gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline indefinitely.
That sparked another round of budget-straining measures as governments announced additional aid to help people pay their bills. They were also forced to deal with a new financial threat from the crisis. As soaring energy prices leave some businesses struggling to find enough cash to meet margin calls, countries announced billions of euros in liquidity funding.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-10/scale-of-europe-s-energy-turmoil-exposed-in-frenzied-crisis-week
Lurking behind the economic chaos in Europe is the unfolding economic disaster in Ukraine. Ukraine’s economy is not producing enough cash flow to sustain its military effort. It is now totally dependent on the largess of the United States and Europe. So here is the critical question–how long will the governments of Europe, facing growing domestic unrest, continue to write blank checks to Volodomyr Zelensky and deplete their own military stockpiles?
One more trip back to World War II. The Soviet Union suffered catastrophic losses during the first year of the war with Germany. As the Nazi armies flooded east, the Soviets hurriedly packed up factories and manufacturing plants and shipped them to the east of the Ural mountains. Do you think the United States, if it had been invaded, could disassemble their automobile and aircraft factories in Illinois and ship those plants to Alaska, reassemble them and have them back on line producing within a year? Because that is what the Soviets did. While they suffered unimaginable losses in men on the frontlines and had villages and cities razed to the ground, the Soviet Union continued to operate a manufacturing capability and rebuilt their armies with new recruits.
Ukraine is not doing any of that. Ukraine cannot safely bring recruits to camps in western Ukraine for basic training without risk of being hit my Russian precision missiles. A large portion of Ukraine’s manufacturing centers are now in the hands of Russia. Remember Mariupol? Without secure military training centers and active factories, Ukraine cannot pull off the economic miracle that the Soviets did in World War II.
As long as Russia’s economy remains intact and it can sell its essential products to other countries not on board with backing Ukraine, Russia will prevail. Let me conclude by giving analysts at Rand some kudos. Rand issued a prescient report in January that provides some alarming insight into a nefarious motive that explains why Washington is goading Berlin into backing Ukraine and cutting ties to Russia:
The present state of the U.S. economy does not suggest that it can function without the financial and material support from external sources. The quantitive easing policy, which the Fed has resorted to regularly in recent years, as well as the uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdowns, have led to a sharp increase in the external debt and an increase in the dollar supply.
The continuing deterioration of the economic situation is highly likely to lead to a loss in the position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November 2022. The impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs. . . .
The current German economic model is based on two pillars. These are unlimited access to cheap Russian energy resources and to cheap French electric power, thanks to the operation of nuclear plants. The importance of the first factor is considerably higher. Halting Russian supplies can well create a systemic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union.
Sorry I don’t understand why the US government would want to destroy the economy of Germany. I don’t see a hint in the three paragraphs.
Read the whole article. It is linked.
That’s gotta hurt!
Larry, how do you know the Rand report extracts cited in the link
to the substance article are genuine.
I can’t see how to verify.
I have to agree with this concern. I read the report and it is way too “providential” in almost every single detail with what has happened. I suspect that it is not genuine.
Quite possible. However, in any case it is a very good analysis of what has been unfolding before our eyes during the past few months.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d5063c3-ee71-41f4-83fd-fee7fa5f54d3_960x1280.jpeg
“The main author of this report was most likely a Brit given the writing style and use of certain words.”
Looks to me more like an ESL who was schooled in British English, not American. For an executive summary, the writing is clumsy and riddled with errors. Also, the conclusions and arguments are too prescient and on the nose with a “Get Germany” agenda, which makes the assertion that this artifact was written in January somewhat suspicious.
However, there is no doubt that many of those who rule and manipulate us are not very smart or moral people, and that would easily include hirelings of the Rand Corporation, so who knows? I am skeptical of everything anymore.
Gotta doubt the veracity of this report as well, I’ve read a lot of rand stuff and the language isn’t right. It’s not technocratic enough by a long shot.
I’ll second that. It sounds too amateurish and jargon-free to be from Rand and obviously has not been proof-read.
Mr. Johnson, you nailed it. European history tells us that Germany has been targeted for destruction for the past 120+ years. And with each war Germany was destroyed then reconstituted. Something changed after WW2. Those Germans who survived into the 1960s were subjected to a psychological operation unlike in its’ history. Germany’s education system programed the children, WW2 reparations raped the land. I don’t know that Germany can survive the current battering. It will be interesting to watch and see if there are a few Germans who have awakened to their plight, and have the skill to revive the Reich. Someone’s laughing at Germany and it ain’t the Russians.
Essentially the Anglosphere, led by England, has been at war with both Germany and Russia, for about the time
that you mentioned.
Now they’re trying to do to Russia, what they have done to Germany. The last time that Germany and Russia were allies, the French First Empire, under Bonaparte, was crushed. Despite England’s bombastic braggadocio, the bulk of the fighting against Napoleon was done by Russian and German soldiers.
If Germany and Russia were allies again, they’d be invincible, and the Anglos’ Washington-London one world government project would be at an end. (It already is, in many ways.) Which is why they’ve worked so hard to get both countries out of the way, along with China and Japan. Without Germany, Russia, China, and Japan, there’s nobody left in Eurasia to resist, or defeat, the so-called and self proclaimed NWO.
In terms of history and action, compared to Eurasia, the Americas, Africa and Australasia, are on the periphery of the World.
As far as I see it these days, there are two competing objectives being pursued here.
1) a unipolar world. Behind this one I suspect an US-based international oligarchy who seems to push for the so-called NWO. An unmandated international order that poses as democracy, but in which individuals are being controlled in next to every aspect of their lives. A kind of virtual feudalism. Instead of counties and other regional principalities, we would get virtual principalities – a fiefdom for Apple, another one for Amazon, one for Microsoft – I think you get the idea… Within each principality the company rules supreme – private tyranies as Chomsky would have it – and instead of inflicting taxes on inhabitants they intend to inflict subscriptions on “customers” and similar schemes. For this to work, the state with all its potential to represent and give a voice to the actual citizenry needs to be weak. Then they can swipe under the carpet, what little balance between ciztizens and government has been negotiated and fought for during centuries and establish themselves as the new overlords. That would be world under a pax corpora of some sort. No classical but “only” ecconomic wars fought between the different companies and no privacy for the normal dude. A dystopian vision, if you ask me. The way down this path is presently still dependend on the US-dollar being the dominant currency. Without the dollar being the world reserve currency and especially without the petro dollar, US-ecconomy will completely collapse, because it can not export and dilute its inflation any more and it will not be subsidised any more by all the world. And without the US-ecconomy dominanting the rest of the world, US-based oligarchies will loose their leverage.
2) the multilateral model favoured, for example, by Russia, China and a host of other countries who do not dare to come out under the present circumstances, becaus that would make them a target to US-imposed sanctions, which they might not be able to weather. According to this model the world is rather parceled up into regions, each region with its own hegemon. There would be a kind of plurality in political and ecconomic systems and the regions negotiate their specific relationships towards each other through bi- and multilateral treaties. There will be shifting aligances and probably constant war for domination somewhere in the world – always threatening to grow global some day. Whether or not each region will garant their inhabitants a degree of personal freedom or subject them to state- rather than company control – who knows? Another dystopian vision, if you ask me.
In a way it looks to me like the US is pursuing option 1) and simultaneously preparing for a possible rise of option 2) in the world. Then they would try to split the world into 2 parts and at least dominate in their own “hemisphere” (which is basically NATO plus Australia and maybe Japan). However, under such circumstances they can not compete against a united Europe. Similar know how, similar degree of industrialization, and about twice as many people. Thus it makes sense to preemtively wreck the European ecconomy as long as they can still do so.
What I would really like to see is that the peoples of the world get together, consult amongst each other how we want to live together on this planet and then take agreed-upon steps into this direction. Looks not very likely these days. Maybe one of the 2 suggested dystopias must first be astablished and then crash in a blaze at the non-negotiable aspects of reality in general and particularly of human nature.
You, like many overlook another tremendous resource it has and seems internationally
It’s Large Diamond Industry, in fact largest by volume
They can’t help themselves…
Volkswagen hammered for fake emission data, (NOT the only one doing it ?),
the sale of Monsanto to Bayer just as legal issues and COSTS piled up,
flooding Germany with refugees from all those African and Middle Eastern countries ruined, bombed into the stone age, by
Democracy Promotion, Rules Based Society Advancement, and “Our Values”, warriors.
Please Larry explain Nato’s Article 5 to me.
thanks
Russian economy warfare advantages exist as long as it holds defensive line. If its defensive line appear to be collapsing as you get by reading Rybar with Lysichansk under threat it changes opinion quickly among its troops and supporting nations. A Russia back to 1991 lines will still be able to win economic warfare? What happens to its defense exports? Why should China pour any more money on losing optics?
Strategic retreat happen but complete numb silence from leadership was deflating. It took a commander in form of Kadyrov to give some assurances. Also no reaction on ground so far.
I see the NATO PSYOP is working great. Every Russian “failure” presented by the western media creates thousands of losers. ALL IS LOST, they scream.
Dude keep drinking that kool-aid. 🙂
Tactical retreat happened, not a strategic one. There is a difference between those two. A big one. Ze Germans are not in the suburbs of Moscow, although they did took a selfie at the border crossing.
Russian economy warfare happenes far behind the front lines.
Defense industy is churning out stuff as we speak, unlike the Western one.
China does not care about CNN/BBC/Twitter optics. They know that they are next if Russia does not win. This is not only existential mater for Russia, but for China too. Their support could only increase over time.
the previous 3 commenters cannot see past their respective noses.the rand report is a forcast and nothing more at that time.the point is look at what has transpired since.larrys point was summed up by his reference to the soviet relocation of entire factories in the middle of a feirce onslaut.the determination and devotion to accomplish that is beyond the understanding of the combined west!
Germany is the 3* largest exporter in the world. Also the leading economy in European union.
I wonder why the USA would want to cripple an economic rival and bring to its knees any sort of attempt of European autonomy self-reliability…?
With Russia and Germany down, you just have to tackle down china…
Hugh, read the history of the 20th Century. Specifically, what lead up to the 2 world wars. In the history you will find the nexus, which is, Great Britian’s desire to destroy its primary economic competitor Germany. And that will direct you to today. After WW1 Germany was never expected to survive the Versailles treaty, but it did. It recovered so fast and so well that Germany was able to pay off its WW1 reparations within 20 years. An amazing accomplishment being the Treaty was expected to cripple Germany for 100 years. That is the reason for WW2. Again, a funny thing happened after WW2. Germany survived a revised Morgenthau plan, which was designed to turn Germany into a placid agricultural nation, thus not a competitor to the USA and London. But Germany again defied the odds and rose from the ashes. So here we go again. The primary goal of the USA is to finally destroy Germany forever. We’ll see how that works out.
Lets see, If you were manager of a pension fund in Germany, say BKV (100 billion assets) where would you invest your assets.
1. German govt. bonds paying 1.73% and a declining euro
2. US Treasury notes paying 3.37% and uptrending US dollar.
3. Euro Dollar notes backed by a questionable Euro bank
Pretty soon it won’t matter. There is talk about digitizing currency. If that happens Countries can be brought to their knee’s by simply pushing a button. With digitized currencies there is no need for paper money.
fiddle
In a race, why would you want to surpass the guy in the 1st place ? To get to the 1st place yourself. One way to do it is to trip the other guy, the competition.
In my ignorance of finance I still don’t believes the thesis. Aren’t American and European banks linked to each other through various financial mechanisms such as credit default swaps and derivatives? Also, economically isn’t the entire West linked together by a complex web of connections e.g supply chains? So if European banks and i industria go under so will American. The United States doesnt have many allies at the moment. What good would it do to have a pauper Europe? It’s not as if the US is self sufficient and after Europe is gone there wont be many countries it can rely on seeing that the US is at war with most of the world at the moment.
Larry,
Thanks!
Amazing, that Rand Bunch!
Your cutting through the fog is much appreciated.
Michael Hudson, one of the few people in the world who actually merits the title “economist”, thinks that Germany was the real target even before the SMO.
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/02/america-defeats-germany-for-the-third-time-in-a-century/
Does this presage a near future immigration to Russia of another influx of skilled “Volga Germans”, and perhaps including a lot of small to medium business investment capital?
Instead of asking a rhetorical question, offer up some actual analysis. Explain why you think that could happen. Otherwise, you appear to be trolling.
No, it does not. They’ll be coming to the US instead, and they’ll all be voting to take away our guns. Mark my words.
I had a lot of conversations with actual Russian Germans and many of them are considering moving back to Russia and Kazakhstan. May be now they are joking but winter is coming…
My grown daughter in Georgia, near Atlanta, just sent my wife and I a message her new power bill is the highest she has seen since they have lived in their family (of 4) home. An attached note indicated a “wholesale surcharge” of $70 was added due to the increased cost of natural gas paid by their utility company to generate electricity.
I sent her a link to your latest post and advised her the U.S. is exporting LNG to Europe which has been cut off of same by Russia.
I advised her to follow your regular posts which are excellent.
Our family are patriots. I am an 11th generation American and my late father was a B-24 bomber pilot with the 90th Bomb Group of the Fifth Air Force, during World War II, in the South Pacific. He was a 33-year veteran of the United States Air Force.
Thanks.
Randy
Randy, Thank you. Your family has a cherished heritage.
Well it is the policy.
Keep the Americans in.
Keep the Russians out.
Keep the Germans down.
Favorite saying of the Duran boys.
In fact the phrase was coined in 1952 by the first secretary-general of NATO (Lord “Pug” Ismay, Churchill’s chief military adviser – and confidant – throughout WW II), by which with soldierly (ie undiplomatic) candour he summed-up the actual motives of the signatories to the NATO treaty. He was generally regarded, at the time and since, to have hit the nail on the head. Moreover, up until around 1999 the Germans themselves might be seen as having largely played the part which Ismay’s 1952 aphorism had assigned to them.
But then, led by Schroeder, they started to become – for a while – too uppity for their own good. Which brings the story up to the present…
I always thought it would have made a great sales plug for the Ford Pinto!
But then I saw it scratched into the back of a chair in the cafeteria of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Then I knew how things are really about to go down.
cosmiccretin,
Methinks that ancient quote has been changed to “…fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here.” Europe has become nothing more than de-sovereignised collateral damage.
I was about the write the same thing. That was the plan all along.
Hi Larry. Great stuff yet again. I’ll go one step back from the Rand Corporation to an article written by Sergei Glaziev in 2014, when he was one of Vladimir Putin’s economic advisers. It’s lengthy, but you’ll see why.
“To maintain their world dominance, the US is provoking another war in Europe. A war is always good for America. They even call the Second World War which killed 50 million people in Europe and Russia, a good war. It was good for America because the US emerged from this war as the world’s leading power. The Cold War which ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union was also good for them. Now the US again wants to maintain its leadership at the expense of Europe.
US leadership is being threatened by a rapidly rising China. The world today is shifting to yet another cycle, this time political. This cycle lasts centuries and is associated with the global institutions of regulatory economics. We are now moving from the American cycle of capital accumulation to an Asian cycle. This is another crisis that is challenging US hegemony.
To maintain their leading position in the face of competition with a rising China and other Asian countries Americans are starting a war in Europe. They want to weaken Europe, break up Russia, and subjugate the entire Eurasian continent. That is, instead of a development zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok, which is proposed by President Putin, the US wants to start a chaotic war on this territory, embroil all Europe in a war, devalue to European capital, write off its public debt, under the burden of which the US is already falling apart, write off what they owe to Europe and Russia, subjugate our economic space and establish control over resources of the giant Eurasian continent.
They believe that this is the only way they can maintain their hegemony and beat China …. Russia and Ukraine are the victims of this war which is being fomented by the Americans. But Europe is also a victim because the war aims to target European welfare and to destabilise Europe. Americans expect the European capital and brain drain to America will continue. That’s why they are setting all of Europe on fire. It’s very strange that European leaders are going along with them.”
That was written eight years ago, and look at where we are now.
Thanks so much for sharing that. This is the beauty of the blog. We learn from each other.
Do you have the ref for the article?
https://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/interview-with-sergei-glaziev-must-see.html
Very interesting.
Wendy,
I don’t know where to find the article referred to but I have Sergei Glaziev’s book The Last World War (2016) which the article appears to be pre-date. It is extraordinarily prescient.
You can find a free pdf download of the book at this link: https://b-ok.xyz/book/21367065/1845ab. Lots of other free ebooks here. Well worth a visit.
Thanks!
Thank you! I love that website.
Thanks to Larry and all for the brilliant analysis.
@Jack: quoting “They believe that this is the only way they can maintain their hegemony and beat China …. Russia and Ukraine are the victims of this war which is being fomented by the Americans. But Europe is also a victim because the war aims to target European welfare and to destabilise Europe. Americans expect the European capital and brain drain to America will continue. ”
Makes a lot of sense!! Mad dash for resources. Control these, and you can throttle any perceived threat e.g. China. Weaken and destabilize Russia, bring the color revolutions, break it apart, and enjoy the feeding frenzy: oil and gas, minerals and plenty of productive land.
As earlier commented this needs to be seen thorough the interest groups lens: the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC), Oil & Gas and Mining Complex (OGAM), and the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector.
Carve Ukraine out, then Russia next. Going through the checklist:
– MIC: Doing great! Old stock out, new weapons for NATO and Ukies.
– OGAM: South of Ukraine has second largest European gas deposits after Norway. (Check Harvard International Review: “The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine’s Energy Reserves” written in 2020). And not to mention Russia as the next target.
– FIRE: Massive agricultural land grabs in UKR by multi-nationals (search “Monsanto’s Land Grab in Ukraine”; just one of various related articles). Also the money flight by the elite from wrecked European economies to USA.
I don’t what your policy is on posting other author’s and podcasts, I just want to bring to the reading audience’s attention that economist Michael Hudson has said the same thing as Rand albeit in more candid terms you can find it on his website or other websites or if you Google it, the title is:
“American Defeats Germany for the Third Time in a Century.” February 28, 2022.
Here’s an excerpt:
“So the most pressing U.S. strategic aim of NATO confrontation with Russia is soaring oil and gas prices, above all to the detriment of Germany. In addition to creating profits and stock-market gains for U.S. oil companies, higher energy prices will take much of the steam out of the German economy. That looms as the third time in a century that the United States has defeated Germany – each time increasing its control over a German economy increasingly dependent on the United States for imports and policy leadership, with NATO being the effective check against any domestic nationalist resistance. “
Very welcomed. Thanks for reminding us. I missed it the first time around. He was/is right.
Mr. Johnson,
Thank you for your richly-sourced posts, and for your own incisive commentary. Particularly, you have my gratitude for those posts in which you lay out the principles that guide a professional intelligence/military analyst in forming assessments on topics under consideration.
I am glad to see the aggregation of intelligent posters of varied backgrounds in your comment threads, some of whom provide parallax to understanding of topics through the introduction of other sources of information/analysis, as well as their own evocative personal experiences, into the dialogue.
I have seen some familiar names from back in my times at Col. Lang’s old blog, Sic Semper Tyrannis, while I have been lurking here for the past few months. I have even seen a welcome comment or two from a former lead poster there, Patrick Armstrong. I, for one, do miss your posts, Mr. Armstrong, and hope that at some time in the future that the gag order imposed on your blog by the malevolent Canadian Trudeau regime will fall away.
Thus always with tyrants…
“deplete their own military stockpiles?”
That’s not just happening in Europe.
See
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/09/ukraine-war-arkansas-weapons-00055124
On the subject you posted!
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
Economist Michael Hudson wrote about this February 22, 2022, the article was entitled:
“America Defeats Germany for the Third Time in a Century”;
Excerpt:
“So the most pressing U.S. strategic aim of NATO confrontation with Russia is soaring oil and gas prices, above all to the detriment of Germany. In addition to creating profits and stock market gains for U.S. oil companies, higher energy prices will take much of the steam out of the German economy. That looms as the third time in a century that the United States has defeated Germany—each time increasing its control over a German economy increasingly dependent on the United States for imports and policy leadership, with NATO being the effective check against any domestic nationalist resistance.”
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice…
Articles supporting Mr Johnson:
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/11/wave-of-german-insolvencies-picks-up-speed-tenfold-increase-in-gas-electricity-prices/
https://dontpay.uk/
https://newsrnd.com/news/2022-09-02-dear-energy–unemployed-people-burn-bills-in-the-square-in-naples.HJePaGO1xi.html
https://websfavourites.com/post/uk-facing-national-disaster-london-mayor
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2022/08/23/europes-markets-and-energy-security-disrupted-by-russia-sanctions/?sh=3c551c1f5097
https://youtu.be/dT27FAzrKXE (AfD leader denounces sanctions – English subs avail.
A friend has an Aussie friend visiting. Former special forces. Was In Afghanistan when it fell, now on the ground in Ukraine providing security for Guardian, BBC and SkyNews reporters. Ukraine and mercenaries are getting slaughtered by Russia military but they are not allowed to air the truth. Does not fit agenda
Col Macgregor claims (he provided no proof, but I find him credible)
https://futuredefensevisions.blogspot.com/2022/09/update-on-last-72-96-hours-in-ukraine.html
1) Russians inflicted huge casualties on the Ukrainians that advanced to Izium.
2) Russians took very, very few casualties.
3) Ukrainians advanced through empty space. They did not force the Russians out. They simply moved in after the Russians withdrew.
4) Ukrainian forces are now out of the cities and forests and must fight in the open. This the fight the Russians prefer.
Russian Counterstroke will occur soon. The stage is set. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are attacking Krasny-Lyman, but the Russians were present in strength and the Ukrainians in a single day of combat lost 300 KIA and over 1000 WIA.
There are over 2000 AFU wounded from the failed Kherson offensive. The hospitals are overwhelmed. Locals are lined for blocks up to give blood.
Several AFU units are refusing to return to front lines. Perhaps the AFU will collapse at the rank and file level to end the insanity.
AFU fell into the trap even when the russian said it was a trap. Welcome to the art of bluffing.
Potential Russian counterstrike will not occur as long as AFU continues charging forward, and it seems that they will continue charging until they run out of bodies.
George Friedman from STRATFOR did explain the same (2015), Germoney is the target, beside Russia:
https://youtu.be/kjenOHMbH_A
Germoney, oh Frank, you really are an animal !
Ritter claims the Ukraine operation caught the Russians sleeping, overconfident, but that the battlefield “victory” is virtually meaningless as far as the war goes, though great propaganda for the Ukraine: https://youtu.be/uYV4OKRwEmI
And the Global Times agrees with Mr Johnson
Soaring energy prices ordeal for European leaders as protests erupt in more countries – Global Times |
In the face of a once-in-decades energy crisis, European leaders seem to still prioritize politics and ideology over people’s lives and the economy by playing tough with Russia, and closely following the US. The upcoming bitter winter will be an ordeal for European leaders’ political wisdom, said experts.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275084.shtml
@Jimmy: “European leaders seem to still prioritize politics and ideology over people’s lives and the economy”.
These “elected” officials are not “leaders”, but actually could be considered as traitors: are they not selling their countries to their paymasters? These clowns running the circus must follow the clear agenda set by the elite as discussed at Davos and other pestilent places of “worship”.
Sorry, I know it sounds conspirational, but just too many fishy handshakes and curious relationships out there. Just check Forbes article from World Economic Forum Contributor “Welcome To 2030: I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy And Life Has Never Been Better”.
To create a New World Order we must first destroy the existing fabric of society. Or so the elite’s logic presumably goes.
I’ve just watched Ritter video. He’s right on the money, as usual.
Good morning from Germany. Thank you Larry for your analysis.
The most active destroyers in Germany are the Greens. Despite this, 20% of German voters support these Maoist ideologues, many of whom are on the payroll of the deep state and its affiliates (my guess). The typical Green Party voters are: upper-middle and upper-class women, a large number of civil servants and those with little or no mathematical and technical skills.
On election night in 1998, when it became clear that the Greens would govern for the first time, I said: this is definitely the beginning of Germany’s downfall. In 1999 the Greens in the front line were to be allowed to bomb Belgrade. The Greens were considered an anti-war party. The Greens have been back in government since 2021. In 2022 they are the most active warmongers.
In 1980 I said (the Greens were founded, 25% of the founding members were convinced old Nazis): God help us when the Greens come to power. They will catapult Germany into the Stone Age.
To this day it is a mystery to me why so many Germans have been able to develop such an affinity for the Greens over the past 40 years. The Greens have never made a secret of the fact that they more or less hate Germany. This has been documented since the 1990s at the latest. Even Hitler never made a secret of his intentions.
Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat old mistakes.
I love Germany. I’ve traveled more there than any other country except for the United States. Berlin, Braunschweig,Koln, Bonn, Franfurt, Baden Baden, Stuttgart, Munich, Gammers Partenkirchen. I’m partial to Bavarian cuisine.
Thank you Larry I am happy to return the compliment. In 2012 I was in the USA, New York for the first time. We celebrated my birthday there on independence day. My family and I were very overwhelmed by this city. In the same year we visited Los Angeles and met our American friends there for the first time. From 2013 to 2017 traveled to California once a year. Visited many cities in Southern California, Las Vegas, Death Valley, Hoover Dam, hiked in the mountains and discovered many neighborhoods in and around Los Angeles.
When Neil Armstrong first set foot on the moon on July 21, 1969, I was only 7 years old and got to see the event live on TV. Since then, everything that can fly and makes noise (LOL) has fascinated me to this day (aviation and rockets) and the USA has become increasingly captivated. In 1976 the USA celebrated its 200th birthday. This year we had a chapter on the Declaration of Independence in our school history book. I was very excited about it. There I found out that I have a birthday with the USA.
A few more historical dates are reflected in our family. My mother celebrated her birthday on January 20th. The day on which the US President is officially inaugurated and sworn in. I received my Confirmation on June 6, 1976. June 6: D-Day. On July 14th. My wife and I are celebrating our wedding anniversary. It’s the French national holiday. He only became aware of that later. Of course we celebrated our silver anniversary in Paris on July 14th with fireworks. 🙂 And yes, I remember the day of September 11th clearly: where I was, what I was doing, the time and which patient I had in the treatment room.
The USA has always been a good friend to me. That’s how I was brought up (by school and the media) and had little doubt about it. Then the wall fell and the internet came. A good 20 years ago (beginning of the second Iraq war) this connection to the USA slowly began to crumble. I was able to find more and more critical reports on the Internet. Above all, the German “climate and energy policy”, which was completely pointless from my point of view, led me to do a lot of research on the Internet (since 2004 at the latest). At that time I still thought that the eco and climate religion was a “German thing”. When we were in California for the first time in 2012, I could hardly see any difference to the German “believers”. I was starting to get the impression that California is the faith center of the climate and eco-movement.
Needless to say, my heart beats for the GOP. Here I see a great conglomeration of honest patriots (I mean voters first of all) who love and honor their country and the spirit of their constitution.
I have developed my greatest respect for people who really love their families, honor their ancestors and cultivate, sow and reap their land, who love and honor their land on which they live and draw their sustenance. People in the big city have given up or lost this connection to life, the respect for life and thus the love for God.
A little final note, dear Larry. Upper Silesia, which I love very much, is a former German region that is now in south-western Poland. It was already the granary (similar to Ukraine) of Poland in the days of the communists. The flag of Upper Silesia is blue and yellow, like Ukraine. However, the color order is reversed. We have good connections to Upper Silesia, know a few Poles (mostly of German descent) and I can say: the Upper Silesians are worried about what is happening east of them and how their government is reacting to it.
Finally, the most important thing: the Upper Silesian cuisine is very good.
I could write for hours, but I don’t want to get bored. 🙂
I apologize for the errors the machine translation will have caused.
Tell me Carl, since there are Germans who think like you and social media is blocked and media controlled.
What is stopping people like you from producing a pamphlet or paper setting out key counterpoints and risks that is dropped or posted to as many houses in Germany as possible.
What would that take cost and time wise?
Preparing documents, mass printing, physical delivery.
This after all your country’s freedom and survival at stake, why not give that a shot.
Then why not stand as anti-war pro German economy, US bases out, political party.
Why not create a new party. Or at least educate.
Because times like these are the few times alternative political parties can actually access power.
Time to do something.
There are 2 German Political Parties with modest number of seats in Parliament that are anti-War and NATO, errr, skeptic – Die Linke and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
These parties and their supporters are vilified in regimist Media as Beyond the pale of legitimate society. The reality is Bernie Sanders would be perfectly at home with Die Linke. And perhaps Rand Paul in the AfD.
Sign up members for these guys and candidates.
Narratives can be changed.
1. Cause Narrative
Cause -and – effect
Russia invaded Ukrainie -and- so I suffer high prices
To
Warmongering America/UK are destroying Europe -and- so I suffer high prices
2. Change solution narrative
Destroying Putin/Russia and Ukraine winning = my life and world will be better.
Putting my country first, not getting involved = my life and world will be better
It very likely that Die Linke and AfD will gain seats in elections, maybe not decisively but they will gain.
It will be fascinating what happens to the Greens and Liberals (FDP) –
Quite a few Germans do things, even stupid things, for their own sake. Also, the willingness to perform foolish acts is particularly high when promises of future security and justice are promised. The willingness to destroy one’s own existence is even greater if one claims that the end of the world would be avoidable. The infantilization of German society has come a long way.
Regarding founding new parties. Conservative parties were founded as early as the 1980s. These were immediately pushed into a National Socialist sleazy corner by the media. And believe me. If you threaten to call a German a Nazi, most will sign everything and beg forgiveness so as not to have to endure the accusation.
Most Germans have no self-confidence like people from other nations. You feel guilty all the time. The few courageous patriots are massively opposed by the state and the media. Nor does one shy away from massive physical violence. For this dirty work there are thugs from Antifa, which officially gets money from the government.
@Carl Schurz wrote
“To this day it is a mystery to me why so many Germans have been able to develop such an affinity for the Greens over the past 40 years.”
The short answer is: Re-education.
Being third generation re-educated myself, my stance has been, we lost so we had it coming, vae victis and all that. What I find mystifying is that the powers that be inflicted re-education on themselves, wokeness being just the latest iteration.
As for the Greens, in the late 70s and early 80s they appeared to be genuinely different than the ‘system parties’ and whether that was a good thing or not, they filled a gap no other party could. Why people continue to support them, I have no clue.
The green Party was a secret service project from the very beginning. This maoist groups they came from had all a great funding by the national agencys. In the netherlands a guy fought against the state to get his fees to the maoist party back, 20% of income over 25 years, because the party was a deep states fraud. He won. This very german melange of alchemy (gender) and idiotism (they own the truth) is climaxing since 2010 in anti-russian bullshit. The logical finish of this SMO will happen in berlin. The green party works hard in it.
The infamous former US-strategist Michael Friedman has said time and time again that the goal of US policy must be to prevent Germany from getting close to Russia.
Seems to me that the RAND-Report if it’s genuine is a kind of up-date to the ideas and report having come out from Stratfor, the think-tank Michael Friedman founded since the early 2010s already.
You may also want to take a peek at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFmfwqzWmHk for further reference.
Russian economy warfare advantages exist as long as it holds defensive line. If its defensive line appear to be collapsing as you get by reading Rybar with Lysichansk under threat it changes opinion quickly among its troops and supporting nations. A Russia back to 1991 lines will still be able to win economic warfare? What happens to its defense exports? Why should China pour any more money on losing optics?
Strategic retreat happen but complete numb silence from leadership was deflating. It took a commander in form of Kadyrov to give some assurances. Also no reaction on ground so far.
Mr. Johnson, I agree with what you are saying, but I think that this “bombshell” report is not genuine at all. It’s a fake. It doesn’t sound like RAND. I read RAND’s 2019 report about “Extending Russia” and they never use such explicit and direct language. They are way more diplomatic. They are the kind of people who always remain polite, even while doing (or advising) the most evil things.
Thanks for your blog!
Agree on the Rand report. On first read it smells bad. It will be debunked momentarily, I’d wager.
No matter how hard I try, I can’t avoid “Fake News”.
Larry – Yes yes yes
The Washington War Party has pursued a Grand Strategy of sowing chaos in Europe ever since 1991. It’s a consistent pattern. The current civil war in Ukraine is simply another example.
The War Party is terrified of a peaceful and prosperous Europe
How have the Americans defeated Germany three times this century?
– The US didn’t enter world war one until 1918 with two million draftees arriving in France, with only a million of them ever seeing any action. The US made a small contribution: In terms of population Australia did more than the US we were in it from start to end. With a population of fewer than five million, 416,809 men enlisted, of whom more than 60,000 were killed and 156,000 wounded, gassed, or taken prisoner.
– The Russians won the second world war not the US or Britain. Churchill was a fraud. Again the US entered late and made a small contribution. Even though Australia was threatened by Japan, Australia had a million men engaged in virtually all the theaters of war in spite of having a population of only 6.9 million.
– This time round the US won’t put any of their own skin in the game as they are using a idiotic Ukrainians.
As Andrei Martyanov has rightly pointed out the US has never won a land war in Europe they won a naval battle against Japan a country of only 72 million compared to 132 million in the US, twice the poulation and a US land area of 9.9 million square km compared to japans 0.4 million. The US had virtually unlimited resources, oil, minerals coal whereas Japan had virtually none. It was the US embargo on Japan that forced them into war.
The US elites only pick fights with countries that are smaller than the US. To “fight ” bigger enemies they bully someone else into doing their dirty work for them.
I’m not blaming the US people I’m blaming their fucking elites.
I hate their guts. They are evil.
And I am deeply ashamed that Australia is jumping into bed once again with our large and powerful friend. Once again siding with the Tyrants on the Potomac.
As another Australian (my ANZAC grandfather hated Churchills’ guts) I am sad to have to agree with you.
Robert. Let me acquaint you with the perspective that reveals the substance of Churchill’s inspirational contribution. Britain, at the time, had a clear ambivalence that has to be handled if Germany was to be faced off, there were those aplenty who would have cut a deal and stayed out of the war. Rightly or wrongly enough people recognised WSC as the best individual to lead the fight. By narrow margins on the field of battle and an obdurate leadership whose oratory was second to none Britain clung on, in part by harnessing the national cussedness that Churchill recognised. There was nothing fraudulent about this contribution.
“fold like a cheap tent in a hurricane” hahahaha Larry has writing talent.
Some good news for Russia = it looks like Sweden has shaken off the social democrats (we will know on Wed). The party that won has far right origins that is good for Russia. I was unable to find out if they are going to try and get out of the Nato deal.
Italy will be the next nut to crack in the EU — it has an election in 2 weeks the right wing parties are also likely to win. Expect them to be much more Russian friendly.
Europeans are skin flints compared to us Americans so another 6 months and you may see a lot of back pedaling. The greens have poisoned the West Germany the worst victim.
China is building 250 gigawatts of coal plants (WSJ today). They can’t believe their good luck that the climate hoax stuff has gotten so much traction. And they produce all the solar panels the imbeciles in the rest of the world are buying. There were lots of good comment on this.
I read the full Rand Report article and lines up with what the economist Michael Hudson said in February of this year. The U.S. wanted to control Europe completely and Germany needed to be contained by controlling their economy. I could never understand why Germany would not open up Nord Stream 2 when they originally requested it to be built. The power to control and inhibit the ability of people to live life in abundance as God the creator desires us to live is the pure example of evil.
I read the comments and I believe most are very short sighted about what is really going on with the reason for the Ukraine war. I have always believed it was a major distraction to cover up the U.S. being broke and the coming doom of the economy.
A drowning man can only tread water until he is completely exhausted.
You mention that “Without secure military training centers and active factories, Ukraine cannot pull off the economic miracle…” , by not having any strategic depth as dis Russian in WW2 this alludes to the technical truth.
Saying that, aren’t you forrgetting that Ukraine has effectively off-shored its manufacturing i.e. war supplies to Western Europe and the US MIC? Not forgetting its training requirements as well?
Effectively having ukraine transport its strategic necesities in a russian style east of the urals manouevre. With the ukrainian urals now being anything west of the polish border and effectively just as untouchable now by the russians as were the manufactruirung and training centres by the germans in WW2.
“IS THE WAR IN UKRAINE PART OF A U.S. STRATEGY TO WEAKEN GERMANY? RAND SAYS, “YES”!”
War is never restricted to things that go bang, and hence all wars were and are hybrid.
Some are prone to conflate a component of strategy with the strategy as a component of their “education” in What are the United States of America and how are they facilitated ?.
Consequently in matters of “strategy” there is a tendency of some to over-rely on precedent which is obfuscated by framing in present context in hope of obfuscating previous trajectories (an oxymoron).
In effect RAND is outlining that the tricks the “United States of America” performed for spectators from 1971 onwards, including detente and various other fiats, are no longer fit for purpose, and suggest a modified reprise of a previous trajectory as the next trajectory : ergo linear change in the misguided hope of avoiding lateral change.
This previous trajectory suggested ran from encouraging the sinking of the Lusitania, through the entry of “The United States of America” into the “First World War” and subsequent role in the treaty of Versailles in 1919, to undermine Europe and Asia, through divide and “rule” projects facilitated primarily by ethnic nationalism branded as “freedom”.
The post-industrialisation “strategy” of “The United States of America” has always been to weaken the world including “The United States of America” to facilitate “The United States of America”, obfuscated like Mr. Hitler and his associates that once “The Sudetenland” has been secured their appetities will be satisfied.
Consequently the war in the component Ukraine, is a component of the war in Germany, which is a component of the war against the world through different trajectories at different velocities, in hope that “The United States of America” can be facilitated through implementations of linear projections in times of opportunity given that lateral change is a constant.
Makes total sense.
DC has now lost Ukraine. Germany now becomes the new DC vassal state and platform to control the EU and also implement US foreign policy vis a vis Russia, via NATO.
Given the likes of Jake Sullivan and Blinken are involved, if that is the US strategy it will fail in spectacular fashion. Everything this current ‘administration’ is a disaster.
I seem to miss the logic in the final three paragraphs. Not sure why a “systemic crisis” in the EU, and Germany in particular, positively relates to “the present state of the U.S. economy?
Thanks Larry.
I’m a first time commenter. The language of the report seems, to my untrained eye, to be a bit amateurish, sometimes ~first-person, and not consistently the cold dispassionate and ‘objective’ tone and style that seems more common. Examples include:
“the uncontrolled issue of cash”
“Thanks to our precise actions”
“next to impossible for them to admit their own mistakes in a timely manners.”
Of course the general narrative of the report gels with the worldview of sceptics of Anglo-imperialism (myself included), so it is appealing. But what are some key ways to authenticate such ‘leaked’ reports? This topic could be worth an article in its own right.
“But what are some key ways to authenticate such ‘leaked’ reports?”
Time!
Thanks, I agree that with time, puzzles get solved.
It’s interesting that Hitler hurt his war effort by trying to sustain quality of life for Germans over industrial production of weapons, which allowed Russia and West to build up bigger weapon supplies even though Germany has some fantastic innovations and arguably most of the brilliant scientists of the day.
Today’s German government seems to care less for its own population than Hitler did.
I find it staggering that German leadership behaves like this.
There are rumblings of discontent in East Germany. But the savagery with which Germany has criminalised criticism of the Ukrane conflict is surprising.
I find it hard to believe Germans obedient as they are, wil continue to toe the line.
I’m no expert in this, but it’s my understanding that the German tanks were technically superior, but they were expensive, took a long time to build and they broke down a lot. The Russian T-34 could be mass produced in massive quantity and was like a Timex — could take a licken and keep on ticken. Between Russia out manufacturing the Germans, moving their MIC to the Urals was the main difference. I’m not sure Germany could have matched this without a complete redesign of their manufacturing objectives, which like the US today, were too focused on bells and whistles.
“complete redesign of their manufacturing objectives”.
Although Mr. Speer by remaining “unhanged” like other “German paperclip inputs” sought to sell this “improvement strategy” to “The Americans” this was never an option for various interacting reasons, as “The Americans” subsequently discovered despite it not being covered to others, which in turn in part informed the American” export of industries rather than export of products, the contingent attempted conjuring tricks from 1971 onwards and their half-lives of being fit for purpose, facilitating the request to RAND for their opinions above.
The non-exported industries however continue linearly to reflect many of the practices of manufacturing within the Greater Reich, and like Boeing seek to ameliorate this through sticking plasters in the hope they will work, the Boeing 737 Max being one example among many.
I think one of the worst problems for Hitler (and the reason he threw it all against the Soviet Union) was the lack of iron and oil.
Can’t win a war without black gold.
He wanted to colonise Russia for natural reserves and cheap / slave labor. He had a whole economic plan
It probably wasn’t far off what the Brits wanted
Ash,
Germany lacked resources. Hence the takeover or threat of reprisals of those that didn’t. Adam Tooze wrote a very readable book on the subject: The Wages of Destruction”
Larry, confirmation of your article here:
The EU brought to its knees by the Straussians
A US grouping, constituted around the thought of the philosopher Leo Strauss, controls from now on both the Secretariat of Defense and the Secretariat of State. After having organized many wars since those of Yugoslavia, they imagined the one in Ukraine. It is now manipulating the European Union and is preparing to deprive it of energy sources. If European leaders do not open their eyes, their alliance with Washington will lead to the collapse of the Union’s economy. There is no point in believing that Europeans will be spared because they are developed. The Straussians wrote, as early as 1992, that they would not hesitate to destroy Germany and the EU.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217976.html
Straussian is just the French terminology for Neocon.
Thanks for your comment and link! I also swing by Voltaire as a matter of course and found that article earlier this morn.
I highly recommend the read (if not study) as well as some of the other cited articles.
I cannot recommend this article strongly enough and state that it lists an extensive list of neo cons who are implementing Wolfowitz’s “Defense Planning Guidance” to this very day. They are mindlessly focused ideologues, wars conventional or nuclear, are not beyond their focus and planning.
A look at them and the evil they radiate is basically the source of all the recent wars to the present day disaster in Ukraine.
Thierry Meyssan has provided an extraordinary amount of research on the neo cons, e.g. the kagan kartel, and thus what he writes carries a lot of weight, IMHO.
I am still not sure about the Rand article cited by Larry but Meyssan’s lead paras, as excerpted by Natoistan, provides clarity about the neo cons plans for Europe:
Larry, confirmation of your article here:
The EU brought to its knees by the Straussians
A US grouping, constituted around the thought of the philosopher Leo Strauss, controls from now on both the Secretariat of Defense and the Secretariat of State. After having organized many wars since those of Yugoslavia, they imagined the one in Ukraine. It is now manipulating the European Union and is preparing to deprive it of energy sources. If European leaders do not open their eyes, their alliance with Washington will lead to the collapse of the Union’s economy. There is no point in believing that Europeans will be spared because they are developed. The Straussians wrote, as early as 1992, that they would not hesitate to destroy Germany and the EU.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217976.html
It is quite remarkable, as in noticable, like something you see and understand like remarking on things you see and know you see them kind of remarkable, that all these talking heads producing these quoted articles and statements, together in unison all pretend to not know things.
I think i’m past the mindset these things have solutions, not because they do not have solutions, they certainly do have solutions, like i just joted down i am past that.
By being past all that what that means is the rational logical solutions do not work, rather they will not work because the simple fact those viable realistic solutions will not be employed because the truth of things is those solutions will deliberately, intentionally, not be used.
And it actually is beyond the malice with intent to not use those solutions, it is exactly the current circumstance that are the intentional situation, yet it is beyond that, the current circumstance are not only intentional they are subsets of broader consequences which are themselves intended and desirable.
I back all that up 101% because in a NewYork minute the issues can be solved by reversing the very things which inititated the current situation and that solution is to drop the entire intentional strategy of Russian sanctions and the interconnected attainders which boost the negative and destructive consequences which have caused and created the ehole shebang in the first place.
Never mind the bald faced thru the teeth lies and incestious pretending not to know things such as the criminal gangsters running Ukraine are inhibited by these intentional circumstances in producing anything which would cause positive developments in order to reduce and do awau with the current situation. How many lies and bullshit is there in that body of excuses and probale deniabilities. Let Thee count the ways.
The whole thing from before Euromaiden in 2014, no doubt the plans for which go back much further, from the DC orchastrated coup of a legitimate elected government, ie. regime change operation, is one long unbroken chain of intended consequences carefully orchastrated managed and other forms of manipulation to arrive exactly at this juncture along with unknown unknown future intended outcomes.
No other honest, lie free, free of ulterior motives, plausible deniability free explanation works to describe events and the situation curruntly as it exists.
Everything is more or less exactly what it is because somebody or something is doing what they are not supposed to be doing.
And for one, once i began to see what i am seeing and understand at least everything here is on purepose meaning intended, meaning bad shit is going down because it is intended to go down, once seen it can not be unseen, but there is another aspect to that last, it is that it is almost unbelievable, and by that remark what i ammsaying is it all is almost incomprehensible, in its scope and its scale, so much so i got to keep looking at it to make sure it is real snd the awful truth, its that kind of inconcievable, like yah got to pinch yourself to check if your not flashing.
It is almost inconcievable for one very critical reason, its simple too, good folks do not do such things to other peole, but its got a deeper aspect, its that for sure, the inconcievabikity aspect is that goid folks not only do not do such things to others, goid folks are good folks because it is unconvievable to them, they do not think in those terms, goid folls do not conspire to destroy their coybtries or way of life, destroy their jibs, that are at the crux wealth creation because wealth, intrinsic wealth, only comes from one source, and that is thru the hard work elbow grease and brain sweat that creates tangible things that are valuable meaning they are bits and pieces of actual wealth and only thru unfettered economic activity is wealth of people of nations posiible. All other forms of “wealth”, is in one way or another theft, or grift, scheme, and racket.
And another thing, wealth never goes away unless it is physically lost beyond human recovery or destroyed. Sll the wealth of the western hemisphere that once created and maintained our wonderful prosperity and happiness did not simply go poof! into the ether. Somebody been cloocting it and moving it into a system which denies we who create wealth access to our wealth. And to me, nobody on earth can convince me otherwise, cept The Lord Allmighty hiself, everything going on in grand effect is intentional because it does two things and those are it strip mines wealth, controls further the sources of weslth creation and creates more power for the same doung what they aint supposed to be doing.
Everything is connected. Its so obviois once you see that you can never unsee it. No lies or prevarications can alter this truth.
That there is a vast conspiracy we can not see directly but it exists because everything happening now could only happen because a conspiracy of people are puteposefully creating the circunstances clearly visable. Nothing else.
Everything else is a lie.
I really do not care if you post this Mr. Larry, though i seriously appreciate all you do, appreciate you for who you are. appreciate all the wonderful insights and perspective you gift us, I see what i see, it is so disgusting so reprehensible so evil my soul screams for words to express this disgust this anguish about what these people sre doing and doing to all of us goid folks. My mind boggles at the itter scope of whats happening. O want to grab my Rifle and run as fast as i can and get these moral monsters. They have no right to determine what oir world is to be what our priorities are to be, its the worst the most foul enemy out there behind everything. I understand why Mr. Putin and his Alliance if goid folks are doing, they must do, fight the beast, IT which has cored out our beloved Republic and homeland’s system of government, infested everything within and wears it like a skin-suit, down in Mexico the drug cartels have accomplished this with the Mexican government, Ukraine, same thing, these are criminal gangs, they create a larger consortium as the indeed consort with each other, somebody has tonfight these creatures, their depravity is a weapon all its own and Nrother its insidious as only comes out of the gates of hellmouth.
There’s that 4th verse in The Star Soangled Banner, i remeber clear as the day i sang it in The BouScouts first time, “…to stand between ones loved home and wars desolation”
Its keeps repeating in my mind. Its gonna come down to that all over tge west here pretty soon.To stand between what you love and what matters most and this war this conspiracy is waging against us all from Russia to America.
No fucking doubt man, we are next. Whats regime change without terror and reprisal and punishment actions, that have begun right out in the open, stated in no uncertain terms by those wearing that skin-suit of OUR givernment no less.
They want is squatting in the dirt, every day, with a spear protecting our meat our woman our hut.
Where else is this all heading?
No where else thats one thing for absolute sure.
Larry, I have been wondering for a while now: bit EU and USA operate a large number of 3-letter agencies with multi-billion dollar budgets and swaths of people who are paid to keep a close eye on places like Russia. Yet, they decided to into the sanctions war and are now acting surprised that Putin spent the last 10+ years hardening/isolating the Russian economy, forging connections around the world and building resilient networks among African, Latin American, Middle Eastern and other countries. They are flabbergasted that he has hypersonic weapons, special submarines that can carry other submarines etc etc – as if they just woke up today and went for their first day on the job.
The same people are laughing at the Russians (or pushing the idea that we should be laughing at them as part of PSYOPs) for supposedly not seeing the Ukrainian building pre-Kharkov offensive but should we not ask where all these agencies/”specialists”/”experts” were when giving advice that we should impose draconian sanctions that ended up hurting the West more than Russia – sanctions obviously based on totally bad info.
The amount of lack of knowledge about Russia is in fact staggering – Putin is a communist trying to re-create the CCCP, Putin is Peter the Great trying to re-create the Tsardom, nobody knows who is running the war theater in Ukraine, on and on – it turns out we really have no clue what is going on over there in Moscow.
Either all of the above is a testament to Putin’s ability to build a state that can really hide secrets (he was KGB after all) or all these highly paid “analysts” (parasites?) simply fell asleep at the wheel. Or, are they intentionally going ahead with the sanctions knowing they will hurt the West more (why?)?
Finally, there is also the possibility that Germany is going along with everything because it will expose the EU’s broken decision mechanism which right now demands that ALL EU countries have to agree to a decision. Perhaps Germans are maneuvering to expose that as inefficient and take control of the EU in terms of decision making (no longer necessary to have agreement of all states/members)?
I kept reading folks talking about the need of some sort of ukranian counter-offensive because of the ramstein meeting.
That was a given, I mean: the billions would flow from ramstein with or without any counter-offensive.
But what they demanded was some sort of victory before autumn and a predictable stall in the figh.
Cause thing are going to get really bad in Europe. In Switzerland you will star to get a fee or even jail if you brake the rules of rationing gas.
The counter-offensive was not for ramstein warmonger but for Europeans copium while we’re freezing and hitting exomonic copalpse in the coming months…
Unfortunately, the very excellent Rand report to which you refer seems to be based on the work of Dr Vernon Coleman who for a very long time has had a somewhat dubious reputation. That does not make it untrue but it does determine that a certain amount of salt needs to be added. Others seem to have doubts too.
“What is Truth?”. Pilate
I am stunned in finding the names and roles of “primarily Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck” in these events. Do I smell a fish? It all seems too perfect. Perhaps it is real. If so, it is dynamite.
Great, informative post as always.
One clarification. Russia’s resources are an important part of its economy, but it’s not the only reason it is sanction-proof. Following years of sanctions and especially following the round of sanctions it was hit with following Crimea, Russia radically refocused its import economy into one that is much more self efficient. I have lived in Russia since 2004, so witnessed this first hand.
In an operation as efficient, though not nearly as humongous, as moving their MIC to the Urals, when items such as French cheeses were banned, a massive new line of domestic cheeses appeared on the shelves and in pretty decent quality. This occurred in what felt like a matter of a month or two, though I was really counting.
Russia can produce pretty much anything it needs short of mass production microchips — and if there were a serious need, I’m sure they could sort that out pretty quickly too.
So, the sanctions war against Russia was pretty easy for any of us living here to predict as doomed from the outset. Well, any of us who didn’t have our heads filled with liberal western media sources. Even that crowd can see it now for the most part.
Fake but genuinely accurate analysis IMO.
There is too much hindsight in the piece for it to have been written in January 2022.
But I think every word is an accurate description of US policy.
My own view is that US knows well it doesn’t have the intellectual or diplomatic tools to act in a multipolar world. So we are heading to a bipolar China block vs US block world with little or no trade between them. Rich Europe (my term, but “Germany” works as well) wants to trade in both worlds and US can’t let them. A huge block of mayhem between Europe and asia works perfectly for the US.
Note also how very underprepared “regime change” was triggered in both Belarus and Hong Kong. Neither were remotely ready for success, but they were the last chances to create a little mischief before Ukraine. Neither would get anywhere now.
Some of the finance in there looked a little naive for a completed Rand Summary.
How does ruining Germany lead to fresh resources to US? Sure it would kill the Euro and dollar would (already has) benefit. But a strong dollar is not really wanted even by US. It would certainly make the US twin deficits worse, so only putting off the payback time for US, not reducing its effect. And China would be a big winner short term (but not in Yuan flows – there is simply not short term money market assets in Yuan to attract flows from US).
Moreover while some German educated people will go to US, the flow of the millions of well educated Chinese, Russian and Indian asians out of US is a much bigger concern. They are the really smart guys. And it pretty much forces China to take Taiwan soon.
When you realize that GDP is a fake number it will start to make sense. The people that rule over us have more than enough money; for them it is about control.
The strong dollar IS wanted by the US ruling class because it inflates the stock market.
As for ruining Europe there are a few “benefits:”
One, an influx of immigration from a failing EU will suppress middle class wages. Salaries in Germany are trash.
Two, remember that they don’t share our values. Yes this is a talking point from Republicans vìs-a-vìs Hispanic immigration, but it is even MORE true for Europeans. Unlike Hispanics, they don’t go to church – indeed the elites are vehemently Atheist – and they hate guns. In fact you could argue that Mexicans in particular have a stronger gun and militia culture than we do! If we do let Europeans in en-masse, expect to see serious proposals to do away with the 2nd Amendment.
Three, since there is no real common culture among Europeans beyond the fake cosmopolitan global culture, expect more divisions in our already fractured society.
The idea of intentionally destroying German economy sounds to me little far fetched. US and German governments probably figured that this proxy war would negatively effect German economy and decided that it was necessary and worthed in a long run. We have seen the same scenario many times. The sanctions were supposed to paralyze Russia and the war to destroy it. The country would probably disintegrate after which, the West would install, Zelensky like puppet leader/s. Finale stage, privatization of Russian gas and oil industry, which would make (German) sacrifice worthed. But as you’ve said, they didn’t do their homework.
Not for publication
Dear Larry,
I really appreciate the work you do. If you cannot verify the authenticity of the Rand report cited may I respectfully suggest you remove reference to it so it is not used against you if it turns out not to be an accurate source.
Or add words “in a reported (though not independently authenticated) RAND report or x claims that … With a disclaimer in case it’s not authentic.
Note it does not appear authentic.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d5063c3-ee71-41f4-83fd-fee7fa5f54d3_960x1280.jpeg
I thought Turkiye was still blocking the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, because of their support of the PPK.
Also, as the trust in the US Dollar is shaken, it doesn’t hurt to make the Euro a less attractive currency.
This is an analysis written a few years back, by a PLA general that still resonates with high plausibility. It might give some insight to what the strategy behind the US actions, vis-a-vis Germany and Europe, are in general. De Gaul’s economic adviser, Jacques Roueff, twigged on to this dollar strategy in the 60’s which, in no small way, triggered the run on the Fort Knox gold reserves by France and Germany.
If the Fed doesn’t relent in their liquidity contraction phase of this cycle soon, I expect the response this time, particularly from peripheral economies, will be default of dollar-denominated debt.
http://chinascope.org/archives/6458
I have no issues with the provenance of the Rand document; the treatment of a number of German companies by US regulators over the past few decades is sufficient evidence that economic war has been afoot for some time already.
The EU is its own worst enemy. They can print money that won’t find energy at any price. Nor can they command anyone in the world, allies US and Norway particularly, but much less Russia and OPEC to deliver it at unacceptable prices. The RAND document accurately describes the calibre of the German leadership; in fact, it is perhaps too kind to them and their intentions.
Nice to have a Rand document, but not required. The globalists and their folks that profit from their efforts have feared the alliance of Germany and Russia for decades. Germany is the money that keeps the EU going. If Germany could actually grow and prosper without the influence of the US, control would diminish. If you look at the investing picture, right now the huge investors are cash heavy. With the efforts going on to damage Germany’s economy, Germany will be a great target for these globalists to cash in like they did in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. The German and EU leaders are either really stupid, or useful pawns. When bad things happen on this level, it’s either conspiracy or fuckup.
Once they destroy Germany, will they rename it Prussia?
https://prussiagate.substack.com/
I think the so-called RAND report is a deep fake. My hunch. I read research reports for a living, and it doesn’t read like RAND report–perhaps it’s a draft.
-It’s in need of an editor.
-Use of “we” and “our.”
-Distribution to the DNC? Really?
-It doesn’t look like recent publications.
Here’s one from 2019 that explores the same topic. “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia”
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
“perhaps it’s a draft.”
More likely a response to an initial invitation to bid through first draft outlining an approach predicated upon initial data, which subsequently informed ““Overextending and Unbalancing Russia” , as did other responses to invitations to bid prior to 2019 from various perceived cognoscenti in hoped facilitation of long standing purposes which are ongoing ?
US and/or Russia can inflict more damage to any EU ‘country’ as long as they stay in EU . Sovereign nations can make their own decisions about foreign policy, trade , interest rates etc. EU is the problem. Blaming is all it’s good at.’ Nations don’t have friends, they have interests ‘ DeGaulle
With regard to the economies in ‘the West’ I would like to point at something that is often overlooked. Compared with the BRICS + economies the ‘Western’ economies clearly show an ageing of the population, with the working age population getting smaller and the retiree population getting bigger. This also translates into the economy as a whole. Retirees tend to spend less on commodities than working age people. So when the Swedish firm ‘Electrolux’ is ringing the alarm bell, this can also be because less and less people need a new washing machine or a new vacuum cleaner. In the BRICS + countries this situation is quite different. Professor Michael Hudson often uses the term ‘rentier economy’ to describe the West. When the economic situation in ‘the West’ is heading for a huge crisis (worse than 2008) one shouldn’t forget that the demographic changes (from a shrinking number of big spending working age to a growing number of not-so-much spending old-agers) are an important cause. The economic growth of India was 7% last year, making it the fifth biggest economy of the world. Soon the ‘G7’ needs to be reshuffled, because more and more BRICS+ countries achieve huge economic growth while the traditional ‘Western’ economies perhaps may achieve at best a standstill with regard to economic growth.
Thx for linking the Rand report. A similar prescient article I read a few months on the economic war between USA & EU/China –
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/04/michael-hudson-the-dollar-devours-the-euro.html
Larry, is it possible that the US destroying the German economy wasn’t a main objective, but a contingency plan if destroying Russia failed? The western objective to destroy Russia didn’t failed just because Russia is a resource powerhouse. It was mostly dictated by the fact that the West clearly overestimated it’s control over governments outside it’s core sphere of allies, (not to mention its own blatantly obvious over reliance on Russian energy). Who haven’t gone all in yet with Russia, but are without a doubt secretly pulling for it.
I also think it is no coincidence that China has been in the throws of a forever lockdown since beginning of the SMO. China cannot do what Russia is doing only because of its heavy entwinement in western finance and it’s vast holdings of dollar debt. But the US can do absolutely nothing to leverage this because of its heavy dependence on Chinese manufacturing. The US absolutely wants to punish China with debilitating sanctions, but it just can’t. It’s impossible. There are things China makes infrastructure wise for the US that it absolutely can’t replace short-term. Right now it’s a race to see who cast the other off first, China divesting itself of the western finance system, or the US becoming more self-sufficient. India also I believe is playing a huge role. Both these governments understand their true value and smell blood in the water. They won’t get involved in the fight but they will hold back the bystanders and let Russia and Ukraine Duke it out.
This is where the collapse of western Europe comes in. Because the US is a one trick pony, it is going to try and use the same tactics that has drawn it out of depression before. Not realizing in it’s short-sightedness that the world is a vastly different place than it was in 1919 and 1945. The EU to it’s discredit, has shown itself to be nothing more than an oblivious lemming co-conspirator to it’s own destruction.
NATO is giving itself high fives right now over the Kharkov offensive thinking it has won a huge battle in the war for Ukraine, not even realizing the complete insignificance of it. It has come at huge expense in manpower and equipment to win a battle within a battle. Because after all that’s what Ukraine is, a battle in a much more overarching war that will probably play itself out in the span of years, if not decades. Not months. But it appears that the West, like a bright star, is burning itself out much to early.
Just my not so sophisticated analysis based on my observations and I’ll admit, somewhat limited knowledge of geopolitics and history. I know there are many other outside contributing factors that could quickly change things. Just as I see it know.
Hi Larry. Excellent writing and information as usual.
My other comment may not be as welcome and I know you do not factor in the threat of Globalism in Western policies over the war in Ukraine. IMHO it is automatic with me when I hear “green” mentioned and that connects with the WEF and the 2030 plan (formerly Agenda 21) which involves deindustrialization of the planet (now only in the West) in order to “save the planet”. I strongly suspect the covid event is also connected to this agenda, and I think the connection with opportunism of Globalist “centric or captured” governments are advancing this agenda in Europe and eventually in the Americas. As I always say, if a policy makes no sense, it is political. There is my preference to explain the energy sanctions stupidities of SO MANY COUNTRIES. In other words events are not what they seem. I also note that my worldview is also taken up now with others. I hope the race to the bottom can be arrested with more of this growing awareness.
Keep well, and thanks for everything that you do.
L.
I’ll join those who believe the RAND report is fake, but it is a good fake and true. There is a contextual environment for this, which is already ripe. E.g. I picked this up today, originally posted at RIA Novosti (but the link is broken): https://vz.ru/news/2022/9/13/1177238.html In Germany, the United States was suspected of plans to ruin Europe with a war with Russia:
“The United States is interested in exacerbating the situation in Ukraine and expanding the theater of operations, Washington is trying to prevent cooperation between Russia and Germany and ruin Germany, said Professor of Economics Christian Kreis on the pages of the German edition of Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten.
A war with the participation of NATO, the expert believes, could be a solution for official Washington to the problems with overproduction and debts. The United States expects that as a result of the conflict in Central Europe, most of the production capacity will be destroyed, RIA Novosti reports.
But the most important thing that the White House is trying to avoid is cooperation between Russia and Germany. Therefore, now Washington plans to ruin Germany, Kreis concluded.
He also noted that every day the economic forecasts in Germany sound darker and darker. The country is in danger of impoverishment and deindustrialization, and small and medium-sized businesses will suffer the most.”
Checking around, it was also picked up here: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-09-13-professor-kreis-spoke-about-the-reasons-for-the-us-interest-in-the-escalation-in-ukraine.BJMTbUPplo.html. There is probably more at DWN. I get their newsletter but the articles are mostly behind a paywall.
Let’s assume, however, that the RAND report is legit. It only represents the playbook of one side. RAND identifies the “unprofessionalism” of the Baerbock/Habeck team, and plays that as a US asset. But that is precisely what is needed to topple them because the election system in Germany works no better than anywhere else in Europe… or in the US. The Greens are working for the US (that is the “talk” in Germany) as well as for the EU bureaucracy and the EU-Commission, and we are still a few months away from winter. The frog in the pot is beginning to feel the heat. BILD Zeitung did a poll. The question was whether people are confident that Habeck can “manage” the energy crisis: 93% said no. (I picked that up in Russian media.) So everything comes down to a question of management, and we can talk about politics and ideology another time. It is time for the Cassandra’s to pipe up and then be proven right when the xxxx hits the fan.
One of the Cassandras is Hans-Georg Maaßen (together with many people from various indusries and their associations): https://weltwoche.de/daily/robert-habeck-und-die-gruenen-khmer-fuer-den-wirtschaftsminister-sind-die-energie-krise-und-der-ukraine-krieg-nicht-grund-sondern-nur-vorwand-um-die-gruene-transformation-der-gesellschaft-durchzuse/, (trans.) “Robert Habeck and the Green Khmer: For the Minister of Economics, the energy crisis and the Ukraine war are not reasons, but only pretexts to push through the green transformation of society.” He insists that Habeck is neither incompetent nor stupid: he knows exactly what he is doing. Maaßen is the former head of the Verfassungsschutz, now in a small political action group within the CDU. About 1.5 years ago he wrote a “strategy paper” in English in which he argued that Germany would face exactly what it is facing now, impoverishment, deindustrialization (which has already taken its toll for a good 15 years anyway), which would lead to popular unrest and battles for resources. Then it would be possible to wrench the rudder out of the hands of those destroying Germany. He probably did not foresse the form of the crisis-trigger we now have, but that was not necessary: he was thinking ahead and he knew how things would inevitably play out. I have that “strategy paper”. It is a tantalizing question: Why did he write it in English? Maaßen is no friend of Merkel. His Twitter account has the flag “anti-fascist”.
As crazy as it may sound, many people and groups, both in the bureaucracy and in business/industry, are waiting. It is not only the bad guys who can play the “don’t let a crisis go to waste” game. It is therefore more than interesting that, for months now, Russian “energy experts” have been saying that the Germans can forget NS2 because half of the gas has already been rerouted to other foreign customers and the other half is dedicated to domestic consumption. But in his EEF speech in Vladivostock Putin said, no, NS2 can be turned on and routed to Germany. As we know, I guess, the NS2 compressor turbines, which work at much higher pressures than the NS1 pipeline, are exclusively “Made in Russia”, so there is no problem with sanctions and no problem with faulty Siemens/Canadian repairs. Without that “golden bridge” (Sun Tzu) offer from Putin, Germany is up the creek without a paddle. It might take some time to shift the German “green ideology”, but when it is a matter of survival, crisis becomes an opportunity. Then we return to square one: NS2 becomes simply a pragmatic business necessity.
Habeck had the brilliant idea to keep the 3 remaining German nuclear power plants on stand-by, and if necessary they would start producing power again. One of the operating companies wrote him a latter: not technically feasible. Again, Russian media picked it up, and the comments were hilarious: “Did the Germans forget how the Chernobyl accident happened? Just try ‘maneuvering’ a nuclear reactor, and that is what happens.” For sure, people at the Economics Ministry know all of that, but they don’t tell Habeck. Why tell the Minister stuff he doesn’t want to hear and endanger your career? — It would be a big mistake to underestimate the German bureaucracy. — Back to square one: Without NS2 gas, it’s lights out. For lack of gas, even the German water processing plants are now making do without chemicals that sediment out various undesirable compounds, with the result that, when this water gets into the rivers, it causes an explosion of algae growth, which kills the fish and mucks up the rivers. Environmentalism is just great! At a certain point, it will not even be potable.
+
As long as the new cold war remains cold, it makes sense for the USA to take down Germany, Russia then go for China. However it might turn hot eventually as we are led by intellectual midgets. Then the US will need strong allies and Germans can still deliver a solid punch in a good brawl.
The current Ukraine civil war reminds me somewhat of the Spanish civil war that was used as a golden opportunity for the participants to hone their skills, in particular the Luftwaffe, in preparation of what we all know happened next.
Have you seen this?
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217976.html
I had not. Thanks for sharing.
Larry;
You challenged me to come up with some analysis so here it goes:
In my mind it is a continuation of the Great Game between the Anglo Empire and the Russian Empire, of Mackinder vs. Bismarck where Mackinder said he who controls the heartland controls the world, while Bismarck said (paraphrasing) that the key to Germany’s security was a good treaty with Russia. Well, said good treaty was (and is) considered an existential threat to attempted Anglo control of the heartland and the world.
The great wars and geopolitics of the world over the last 150 years or so comes in large part from Anglo maneuvers and machinations to prevent said good treaty and a peaceful heartland independent of the Anglo Empire. Getting the Kaiser to dump Bismarck and turn (politically) against Russia, getting Russia and Germany to fight each other in WW1 (and siding with Russia until Germany is defeated, and then weakening Russia by supporting revolution and chaos in Russia).
When Russia (as the Soviet Union) and Germany actually did follow Bismarck’s advice with the treaty of Rapallo the Anglos wasted no time finding and sponsoring a German radical in prison to raise up to break the new treaty and make Germany and Russia again fight each other to the death in WW2.
And so it continues, with the cold war, NATO (to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, the Anglos in), and so on up until the present day, with the current Ukraine situation.
I just think it would be ironic if a lot of German human (and even industrial or financial ) capital searching for safe opportunities ended up in Russia as a safe haven with cheap energy to develop such capital (even if just the human capital), like those Volga Germans of previous centuries.
Good. Better than a rhetorical question.
This is an obvious fake. I’ve seen many RAND documents in my time. This is nothing like what they put out. There is no number, there are no citations, the formatting is all wrong, and the language is too informal. The use of “The Fed” in paragraph one should have alerted all of you to the problem. The Federal Reserve is never called “The Fed” in any formal document. RAND does not publish informal material. They certainly wouldn’t publish anything littered with that many grammatical errors.
All of you are falling into confirmation bias. You are looking for what conveniently affirms what you already believed. Many of you also have a difficult time ever admitting you were wrong about anything. That’s a dangerous combination.
Agreed. I should’ve mentioned the informal prose style. (a brain lock when I read it–it was just off.)
Why would America try to destroy a nation they wholly own?
Well actually Israel owns it *through* the US but still.
Yeah makes sense actually Israel would totally still want to destroy Germany despite having them as basically a subject nation being raped into submission by arabs.
Germany with the sanctions is running into an economic disaster.
Many companies see exploding energy costs.
for example from 100.000 euros a year to 500.000
they will go bankrupt.
also individuals, if they can´t pay there energy Costs, they might not be able to pay house loans, so they will loose their homes.
and many more.
The EU is living mainly on german contributions.
If german economy breaks down, EU will break down.
There is more than one front in this war. When the Federal Reserve raises rates? What does that do to the EU with its Negative interest rates? It causes capital flight. Why pay to store your money there, when you can make money here? In total agreement with Larry here. This was a two-prong war. Destroy Russia to rape its assets, and also destroy a trading competitor. And if you think Jaime Dimon is going to allow Klaus Shwab to steal his Empire? Fraid not kids. The financial war going on beyond the scenes is a lot less understood than the military conflict.
?Not a real fan of EU, I’m American, so what’s the problem? Way more concerned with Biden allowing millions of deadbeats in across our border. Giving deadbeat students free cash and other stuffs. As things go 100% of EU pain is self inflicted anyways as they self sanction I don’t see much USA hand except encouraging it… but why not..
It’s a fight over energy primarily, resources more generally second. No energy, no economy.
Peak Oil II occurred in late 2018. Peak net energy was decades before that. The explosion in debt post-GFC (triggered by Peak Oil I) is a proxy for the missing energy.
As well as its natural resources, Russia has an intact base of well-educated human capital, an unbeatable combo vs Western delusion “inclusivity and diversity”.
Best recent quote by the US DoD: “Correct use of gender pronouns increases force lethality”. How can Russia lose against that?
Traditional manufacturing-based economies in the West have been replaced by a mixed bag of propaganda, green energy BS, financial shenanigans, a rapacious Big Pharma and a massive influx of delusion in the populace.
Pass me the popcorn.
Is the NATO push to continue the Ukraine conflict, to simply be a major distraction from the mounting deaths caused by the malignant mRNA shot? Insurance companies are reporting huge increases in excess death rates among the entire mRNA West. It was a once in two hundred year event last year but it is occurring again this year! As a 72 yo retired Ob-Gyn physician, the mRNA shot kills your immune system and allows cancer cells to grow uninterrupted by your white blood cells. I fear vaccinated women will go from an 11% risk of breast cancer to 50-60% chance of breast cancer in their lifetime. All cancer cases are explosively rising in incidence in addition to stroke and heart attacks.
If Germany, a mRNA country, has a 50% population die off within a few more years, the politicians not caring about enough natural gas for winter makes more sense. Hope to be wrong but soon, insurance companies will probably add extra premium for vaccinated people due to high death rate.
A bit like the hapless hunter shooting his own dog for lack of game. Or the obese cowboy killing his horse to make hamburgers.
Whichever way one slices it, if the IS needs to consume Germany to survive, its salad days of hegemony are over.
The USA has Europe Japan South Korea and Taiwan as vassal nations. Together and united they are a powerful force that can influence world affairs.
Why would the USA want to weaken and cripple Europe? Surely they are weakening their own power and influence at the same time.
With all those plans made for the western elites, I wonder if they ever considered the posibility of a russian victory (economic and militar). After all Harry Truman used the nuclear attack against Japan in the end without any valid justification (if that could ever be justified), and these elites are corrupt and crazy beyond my imagination.
Russian SMO is contributing to the destruction of Europe.
After a humiliating withdrawal from Kharkov front lines, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made Russia look wavering and weak by offering “triumphant” Ukraine peace talks! This weakness, displayed by Putin’s government, makes one wonder if what Putin and Lavrov really want is not Russian dominion and a multi-polar world but to be part of the West. Such delusional desire to be part of the west, makes the Russians incapable of conducting a real war, thus Putin’s flawed SMO demonstrated to NATO members that Russia is weak and incapable to deliver a knockout punch of its forces. A convincing demonstration of Russian military prowess would have dissuaded NATO members from any sanctions and NATO ‘s rapid dissolution, thus Europe would have realized that its real interest is to be at peace with Russia.
Washington’s sanctions produced overwhelming economic and political problems for the EU (refer to the Rand’s study) by being cut off from Russian energy, unless Putin rushes to Europe’s rescue, Europe will soon be out of the conflict. Admirably, Putin’s ideal devotion to international law makes one wonder what world is Putin living in. Clearly Washington could care less about it. The real world is based on power, and Russia’s delusional restraint on the use of its power has left Russia at extreme disadvantage. Washington will keep pushing Russia (not only in Ukraine but in Armenia and Syria and soon other places) until Putin has no alternative but to 1) surrender or 2) go nuclear.” If Medvedev was in charge of this war, it would have been over months ago. Listen to what he said, “the Western nations will not be able to sit in their clean homes, laughing at how they carefully weaken Russia by proxy. Everything will be on fire around them. Their people will harvest their grief in full. The land will be on fire and the concrete will melt.” This is the only language bullies understand!
Dr Roberts is the lone writer who warned that this SMO is fraught with problems and may bring disaster to the world. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/09/14/has-the-kremlin-finally-realized-that-ukraine-is-no-longer-a-limited-military-operation/
Your post is fraught with prejudice, clichés, factual inaccuracies and propaganda tropes, sorry.
The only true disaster to the world is the U.S. foreign policy. Always and everywhere.
I doubt that our government is purposefully trying to destroy Germany. That would require intelligence, competence, understanding the world, and deviousness; mere greed and self-interest isn’t enough.
The US government – at least in the DC bubble – seems like a hive of lemmings who think DC is the center of the universe. For example, Biden stating sanctions are intended to deter Russia from invading Ukraine and then later claiming sanctions were never intended to deter invasion. Or being warned by the worker bees that there would be a baby formula shortage if action wasn’t taken, and still being surprised by the shortage. Or funding gain-of-function research and then trying to dissemble that since it wasn’t called gain-of-function, then it wasn’t hain-of-function. That’s a level of incompetence that shows that American politics are completely corrupted and populated by the worst, most venal, useless human beings alive.
IMO they aren’t master conspiracists, they are petulant, immature, greedy children at the control levers of power. That makes them more dangerous.
“Dr Roberts is the lone writer who warned that this SMO is fraught with problems and may bring disaster to the world.”
Another instance of trust me, I’m a doctor and exceptionalism, since supposedly the Russian General Staff never “explored” possible outcomes before sallying forth?
“Russian SMO is contributing to the destruction of Europe.”
Not only, many others are helping.
But, but but… didn’t neocon one-trick-Dick Cheney tell Paul O’Neil “deficits don’t matter” ??
Rand comments on the report:
https://www.rand.org/news/press/2022/09/14.html
Kim Dotcom on twitter challenged Rand to comment on the report a few hours ago, as follows:
Kim Dotcom
@KimDotcom
·
3h
“Hi @RANDCorporation , this leaked document has been circulating for 24 hours without any comment from you. Is your silence confirmation that the document is authentic or do you need more time to develop a strategy in a world of FOIA requests and subpoenas? ”
Dotcom has since deleted the tweet. Got his answer, I guess.
I’m stunned by the number of those I once considered discerning commentators who fell for this obvious fake, simply because it fit in with their pet narratives.
I agree.
I’m not surprised. People think they are critical thinkers when they are far from it. It’s the way of the world.
They criticize people for being clapping seals while engaging in the same activity. Hypocrisy is the standard for humans. Entirely predictable behavior and rather boring.
It might very well be a fake, see my post above.
However, it is unfair to ridicule those who fell for it because it content is plausible and because such studies and policy recommendations by RAND do exist – see the 2019 policy planning report on Russia
To Dotcom’s credit, he admits he got snookered :
https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1570147001052041216?cxt=HHwWgMDQrZyYpMorAAAA
Our new King, Charlie Lugs, is fully onboard with WEF Klaus Schwab, and his “green” Agenda 2030.
“You schall own nuzzink und be happy”
Part of the green agenda is a vast depopulation. 95%?
Two books I recommend:
Firstly climatologist Dr. Tim Ball’s little booklet, only 121 pages, well illustrated:
Human Caused Global Warming The Biggest Deception In History
Second nuclear PhD engineer Robert Zubrin’s Merchants Of Despair.
Last, Dr. Tim’s website: principia-scientific.com
Dedicated to truth in science.
JD.
There should be little doubt that the US grand strategy is global dominance to be achieved via low-intensity conflicts (subversion + propaganda + destabilisation + proxy wars) on potential competitors, emerging powers, non-compliant governments and even “allies”, like Germany.
While it is highly plausible that what the leaked document says (it is consistent with the broader U.S. strategy and policies and it is what actually is happening) , I wonder if the leaked document itself is genuine or a fake. I’ve read several stuff from RAND and I do not recognise the ‘style’.
It is important, because had to be exposed as a fake, this would only feed the arguments of those who reject any malign intention of the U.S. and that stigmatise as conspiracy theories any reasonable contrary argument – think of the mainstream discourse which rejects the idea that what goes on in Ukraine is a proxy war.
Often, even references to The 2019 RAND report (over extending Russia) and linking it to the current conflict are also labelled in the mainstream as a conspiracy theory – and it is a genuine published document!
it is for similar reasons that “Varsavia is buying weapons well beyod 1938’s Germany, 250 M1 from America (Upgrade Kit 2C optioned) and about 800-850 K1 (or K2 not yet clear) from Korea” ? Should DE detach more from US ?
Larry, do you know that a Facebook forbids to repost a link to this article because “it violates their standards”??? Can you write an article about their censorship, please?
Thank you,
Galina
I despise Facebook and the main stream social media. I’ll try to do it.