Thomas H. Lipscomb, a new friend, penned the following and graciously gave me permission to publish. Mr. Lipscomb is the Chairman of the Center for the Digital Future in New York. He was a founder and CEO of two public companies in digital technology and holds five patents. He has been an executive in several media companies, including CEO of Times Books, and he has written articles for publications such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.
There is no doubt now that Russia will defeat Ukraine and impose its terms. As Putin said a few weeks ago, it was his mistake to think he could trust the West to come to a reasonable agreement and he had no real choice but military defeat of its Ukrainian puppet. His shrewd foreign minister Lavrov pointed out that there was no point in discussions with the current American government. They have no understanding of war and even less of diplomacy.
But how will the United States respond to its dawning understanding that the years of US/NATO planning the Ukrainian Proxy War Angela Merkel recently revealed have not led to the collapse of Russian power and the overthrow of Putin, but the destruction and partition of Ukraine and the exposure of the American and NATO military challenge as vastly inferior to its reputation? This was a fear Biden actually exposed in his White House meeting during the Zelensky visit before Christmas.
By its total control of media the US/NATO could keep its populations learning of this catastrophe to Western power and pretensions for a considerable time. But the international effects will take place immediately.
American military planning was once world class. But who would plan a proxy war against Russia, one of the acknowledged masters of artillery with far better air defense technology than any in the West, and then equip our puppet Ukraine with inferior weapons and only enough ammunition to last six months? And surely American planners couldn’t help knowing that there was no longer a manufacturing base for resupply, and NATO warehouses were practically empty?
Rhett Butler contemptuously reminded Southern secession hot heads “There’s not a cannon factory in the whole South.” Things are not much better in the United States today. It is a worn truism for centuries that logistics are the key to battlefield dominance. Did our current military planners somehow miss that?
America is now scouring its junk pile for obsolete weapons that can never arrive in time anyway to bulk up Pentagon Ukrainian military aid lists along with manufacturing contracts for future supplies that are irrelevant and the Ukraine is digging steam locomotives out of museums to run on what is left of its rail system.
But the United States current leadership is a bunch of total idiots, blinded by ideology, arrogance and illusions of pursuing a “rule-based” global hegemony, an opportunity long passed, as our performance in this proxy war shows. The United States may have won the Cold War but it lost the peace. Its strategic thinking and its military is obsolete and configuration of both forces and equipment is based on assumptions from the past millennium. The battle for a Great Global Reset under a unipolar American hegemony has been lost as well. The World Economic Forum is now about as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire. All they can continue to do is terrorize the increasingly authoritarian states of the West with asinine policy proposals.
The attempt to destroy Russia prodded it to a burst of brilliant diplomacy and leadership by Putin and his team that has quietly established that the rest of the world prefers sovereignty and a multi-polar world. The post Cold War “Pox Americana” as Larry Johnson has called it, is over. Historians of the future will study this period of history with fascination. Few times in history has such immense change happened so fast.
But how will the idiots in Washington react? Will they resort to some attempt to implement Petraeus’ “coalition of the willing” fabricated from some NATO troops and some of our own? Petraeus so far has had two significant ideas in his life: As a cadet he married his boss’s, the Superintendent of West Point’s, daughter, and choosing to desert his CIA men dying in Benghazi to avoid embarrassment of Obama and Hillary Clinton. Will a desperate US/NATO fabricate some cause and actually physically intervene to try to prevent the inevitable defeat of Ukraine?
There is a possible important tell and it comes from Putin’s tactics in the Donbas. Why, if a great offensive to take the Donbas and breakout is about to begin, would the Russians be intensely fortifying the line they already hold? Could it be after the absurd Parthian shot pinpricks the CIA has been inflicting within Russia itself, the Russians have decided the US/NATO are just out of control enough to try a tactical nuke as well as a NATO force attack?
The next six months are likely to be the most hair-raising we have seen yet
If anyone is interested in the global political economy of the Ukraine war, see this excellent essay, republished on The Postil, which has also published many of Jacques Beaud’s essays.
Essentially, the structural determinations of the war include the US drive for global hegemony via the Petrodollar and Wall St/Treasury Complex; the defeat, disciplining and subordination of the European Union by restructuring its NRG dependence; and the belligerent provocation of war in Ukraine and Taiwan by the US and its allies, as steps towards containing China, which will include comprehensive sanctions and an NRG blockade.
Only this broad, political-economic understanding comes to terms with the maximalist policies of Washington, and begins to appreciate the traps which America is walking into, not to mention the devastation which awaits America “after empire.”
Minor point : Jacques Baud. I think Jacques Beaud is a singer.
love jacques baud.
k. talaat says
Thanks Eisengrimm for the link and happy new year.
The author of the article touches numerous valid observations.
However, he is unaware, as many are, of the War of Indepence raging between the Old European Moneyed Interests and the US Commercial Banks.
In a nutshell, a US WW3 with Russia would bankrupt both and China along with them; allowing a single European controlled central bank with draconian controls through a Programmable Unit Digital Currency to emerge. The only way for the US Commercial Banks to stop the City of London and save the World, is to bring the Ponzi scheme down and free America from the control of the City of London.
I encourage yoy to search this on the WEB and the best man to explain it fully and in detail, is Tom Luongo.
I am not a fan of US Commercial Banks, but they happen to be against the WEF and that’s fine for now.
As far as I understand, the “US Commercial Banks”, namely JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & Al were controlled by the City of London. Did that change?
Yes. Powell decoupled US from Bank of London when he switched from libor to sofr.
Pym of Nantucket says
As I was reading your comment I was wondering if you were Luongo himself until I saw you mention him. He as been good at predicting certain things but I really get the impression he is pushing this square peg into a round hole with too much effort (I think it could be to see his libertarian philosophy validated). In other words, I believe he has some very good insights and he said some bang-on stuff about the US breaking free from LIBOR but I tend to believe grand plans and machinations don’t work because they are too difficult to pull off. I tend to believe more in self-assembly or emergence of coherent goals. So, in my opinion, many ideas Luongo pushes are happening, but it’s not a single dominant controlling narrative, but just one of many forces driving world events.
Alex Thrace says
I respect Luongo a lot but the Powell trying to sink Davos…hmmm reaching in my opinion. Possibly wishful thinking, but then you can’t rule out a battle of the titans, but it is damn sure not for our benefit.
I’m not will to trade one pack of corrupt oligarchs for another.
Now if they have a MAD thing going I’m all for it.
The enemy if my enemy is my friend.
Politics makes strange bedfellows..
I call it the “billionaire wars.” I do think the banksters realized they, too, were on the wef menu.
I hope & pray they all go down.
Alex Thrace says
They fight for which one has the privilege to enslave us.
Let them fight, maybe we can take out the winner more easily.
what bank will it be? The world of speculation is about to fall apart, the system is fragmenting, there is nothing that the inert Europe can offer as it is in the future!
I wonder if Tom is correct. It seems to be too good to be true. Plus I cannot follow his explanations of just exactly how Jamie Dimon is orchestrating the whole deal with the help of Jay Powell.
Raising interest rates pulled big investors away from the euro, back to the $$.
This forced European countries to raise rates to be competitive.
It makes it harder for countries to pay interest on their debts. Plus Wef is tied to the euro.
Per Luongo, Powell believes the US can outlast Europe , ie Europe will go bankrupt 1st or the EU will break apart.
It’s the financial half of a 2-front war, the other half being kinetic, eg destroying Nordstream & forcing energy prices higher; pushing sanctions (that the US didn’t follow), etc.
This sounds like trying to rule the world… banker-wise.
I’m sick of this rule the world crap.
These people will ruin the world, not rule it.
Unless we can stop them.
Education of the public… knowledge is power.
As someone who worked in finance in London this looks far fetched.
Europe already has the Euro, weather a currency is digital or tangible it has to be backed by something and sound, which euro is not, a new digital currency will face same issues as the Euro.
It is very unlike that the world would cow tow to another Western currency, that ship has long sailed.
WW3s biggest casualty would be Europe. Provided the war is not nuclear Russia and America will recover. If it is nuclear Europe has no chance. China will win in any such scenario if it remains neutral as the world needs it’s goods.
US banks are major players in London and few remain, bank of America and JP Morgan are there and old money is what helps grease their wheels. They are as much European as American.
Mysteerious Rooshian Vooman says
“Europe already has the Euro, weather a currency is digital or tangible it has to be backed by something and sound, which euro is not, a new digital currency will face same issues as the Euro.”
All this talk about a digital “currency” is something I don’t quite understand b/c ALL of “their” plans rely *absolutely* on an *unfailing* and *universal* supply of electricity, something we do not have and are not going to have.
Whoever you are, get up right now and look out the window. What do you see? Power poles and power lines.
Think about it.
Yes, thought about it in the fashion of a politician.
If we need more electric power, we just plant more power poles and grow more power lines. Easy really.
Very good point.
While not being smug about it, nor oblivious to the prospect of no electricity to be had, there are no such poles in my hood, nor anywhere close by. A slight Oorah for modernity, and much scorn towards those leaders that do not think of their citizens’ well-being.
martin mkultra7 says
k.talaat,you are talking about two wolves and a sheep discussing whats for lunch.
Alex Thrace says
More likely hyenas and lion battling for which one gets to have us for lunch.
That means the FED (owned by private banks) has to keep raising rates regardless the economic impact, just to blow up the Euro system as higher interests are not bearable by European states, banks and companies….so the ECB cannot move over to a direct CBDC taking out the private banks…
Leider Lincoln says
Dear American: It is interesting to see that what they say about your people is true: you ignore that there is a world, and that it is much bigger and older than you. Citizen, China produces nearly half of all industrial goods and a quarter of agricultural goods in the world; Russia, Arabia [which is no longer with you] and Iran together have half of the energy resources on the Earth and Russia alone has a quarter of the natural resources on this planet. Why would they crash? It’s Washington, London and the Europeans who have fiat money, and that underpins an unpayable debt.
Baud’s minor confusion of billions and trillions aside, he glosses over a key cardinal metric.
China’s straddling the stream vis a vis holding a massive amount of US fiat.
The China-Russia alliance, thus, is a weak one, despite all the hoopla about its true dimensions. It is not a hand and hand relationship and is way overblown.
Eva Colera says
Baud didn’t confuse billions for trillions. In most of Europe a billion is one million of millions.
John L. Chapman says
Excellent find and thanks for sharing here!
Michael Droy says
” Lavrov pointed out that there was no point in discussions with the current American government. They have no understanding of war and even less of diplomacy.”
Well they do appear to know how to make it look like they won….
I do like this approach – Stop explaining how Russia will won, Just announce that Russia has won (which frankly it did by May) – and just ask WTF is US doing now it has lost?
Larry used to say American leadership was stupid but I always thought they had a plan, at least to prevent the Silk Road reaching Europe by turning Ukraine into a nightmare chaos block.
Now I wish they were stupid, because sending 18- and 50+ conscripts as cannon fodder in order to maintain the fiction of an ongoing war is truly Evil.
The main problem is that there is no one credible to negotiate with Russia about what next and no one brave enough to own up to the disastrous US & Nato adventuring.
Best negotiation candidate so far is Italy – Giorgia Meloni would be fun!
Prof. Spudd says
Meloni is a Ukraine-humper, unfortunately. Italy simply shifted from a Western European-like greenie/hyper-woke government to a Central European-like deranged Russophobic one a la Poland.
No different than the DeSantis deception. Perhaps the ruling elite realize they went a bit too far with the woke nonsense. They’ll allow (or even promote) people like Meloni or DeSantis to win as long as they don’t do anything substantive to stop Globalism. Wokeness will return to the agenda in less than a generation.
They can afford to wait. Can we?
Don't mind me. says
“They can afford to wait. Can we?”
The one question seldom asked. Russia can survive on their own, the West cannot. We’ve sold the west down the river and are financially and morally bankrupt. All Russia and the rest of the non-West world (90% of the world’s population) have to do is slowly detach from the dollar.
It’s as though the entire west just decided to use “Wag the Dog” as their definition of war, and “winning”. They don’t seem to subcribe to “reality” as a measure any longer.
I think there are also some analogies here to the movie “Bonfire of the Vanities.” It has been a while since I’ve seen it, but I remember the overriding theme being the dimwitted cluelessness of the elites. It’s kind of like fashionable groupthink, but everything they think is wrong. And these are the people running the world.
Karl Schmid says
I see only one western politician credible enough to negotiate between Russia and the collective west.
Hungary’s Victor Or an .
Fulano de Tal says
It seems to me that participants here use “wishful thinking” as much as in other forums .. (or confuse what they like, with what is more convenient for everybody).
That ultra Orban is the president of a country with a population less than 10 millions.
The population of the European Union is almost 450 millions.
Even if aaaall the ultras of the EU would agree with you .. since when those many bigots would represent the whole “collective west”???
Orban represents ONLY Hungary.
And coincidentally, the two friends from Budapest I have, feel ashamed of him.
There is no politician in the whole west who could negotiate with Russia.
Anyway, it won’t be needed. What do we have to offer Russia?
Tell your friends in Budapest they should be ashamed of themselves. Orban is the only leader who hasn’t cut off his own balls and mailed them to Ursula Vander Leyen. God save Hungary from the likes of your two friends.
Fulano de Tal says
Ok, I will.
Will you also give me your account number, so they and I could make you a transfer, a donative?
It is clear to me that our money is better in the hands of a superior being like you.
(I’m sure you also know the situation in Hungary better than my hungarian friends).
Anyway, he is still the president of a country of less than 10 millions.
Hes is nothing on an international level.
PS: “Orban is the only leader who hasn’t cut off his own balls and mailed them to Ursula Vander Leyen”
Scholz, Sanchez, Macron … they don’t need to “cut off their own balls”: they are the same trash as von der Leyen. They do it very pleasantly. They belong to the same club. You don’t need to be so tragic.
Andrew Charnley says
Orban has reality checks in his mind before he speaks, which is why he is a quality thinker and a proficent nation manager. Also, no electorate is never happy across the nation, especially if they did not elect the ruling party, that is surely understood.
The lack of joined up thinking, is extraordinary in the political world. But then I can remind myself that this ‘Lack’ is very likely due to the teaching methods adopting by much of the West (US/UK especially) where multiple choice questions were introduced in the seventies (after I left School).
This diluted the fundamentals of education by removing the natural development of reasoning skills and we have many nationals with a ‘gear missing from their box’ called ‘Rationale’. May God please help us all in this regard…
…and I must remind anyone reading your piece that ‘Two swallows do not make a summer’…
The oppourtunity for negotiations was axed by Merkel and company. They poisoned that by her disclosures that the Minsk Agreements were a sham. So anyone looking to bring peace to the Ukraine conflict has been hampered as the Russians will think its also a sham. Try getting a cease fire going. What are the chances of Putin saying, yes? Slim to none IMO.
Then why US, along with NATO, is going gung ho to provoke China for a Taiwan fight? A second chance to reclaim US global leadership? Or just a opportunistic bluster?
Thomas Lipscomb says
The US Navy can’t defend Catalina much less Taiwan.
10 to 1 says
The defeat of the Taiwan pro-independence party in Nov ’22 local elections, may be a warning to the current Taiwanese ruling party and the US itself. The Taiwanese people don’t want to be dragged into a proxy war for US interests like the US did to Ukraine against Russia.
German Peasant says
“Of course, the common people don’t want war […] But after all, it is the leaders of a country who determine policy, and it is always easy to get the people to go along, whether it is a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, a parliament or a communist dictatorship. […] It is quite simple. You don’t need to do anything but tell the people they are under attack and accuse the pacifists of their lack of patriotism and claim that they are putting the country in danger. This method works in every country.”
Hermann Göring interviewed by Gustave Gilbert , 18. April 1946
Original: Nuremberg Diary
When something in international politics doesn’t make sense, and in fact makes NO sense, I tend to look for how Davos benefits. I’m still mostly convinced that the Davos Gang is in control of the U.S. and its European minions, so, if the U.S. is dead set on fucking around with China there must be a reason that benefits the Great Re-set.
On an even field China will outcompete the US. US wants to be number 1. This has been policy firm since Clinton, destroy all threats and competitors. Davos is not as powerful as people think.
another steve says
Je crois que la Russie comme la Chine redoutent les armes biologiques. On n’en parle peu. Je crois que c’est la vraie raison des entrainements COVID zero! la vraie raison aussi de la dernière loi de Poutine sur les marqueurs biologiques de sa population. C’est très facile à mettre en ouevre. Hélas..
I believe that both Russia and China fear biological weapons. We don’t talk about it much. I believe this is the real reason for the COVID zero workouts! the real reason also for Putin’s latest law on the biological markers of his population. It is very easy to implement. Alas.
Bluster. And politics. The US can only play this game for a few more years as China is rapidly militarising and the West has severely miscalculated both China and Russia strength.
another steve says
Say again: facts
Spare me your bedtime story.
Do your own research I’m not here to teach people like you, who have zero contribution value in two trolling comments, how to look stuff up.
another steve says
You mean by trolling ; asking questions.
You made the statements.
I am simply asking you to provide the the evidence.
Without ad hominem.
What do you mean by people like me?
martin mkultra7 says
Ash,what we have here is “Failure to comunicate”.the western education system has been teaching”Accept what I tell you” for decades”.Myself included we were not required to nor encouraged to do our own verification and confirmation of what was said.This vast propaganda machine has been built over 70 years and is now fine tuned and humming along.We are the Doubting Thomases,the Tenth man.
Here you go, here’s one quote from 2019:-
General John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Washington’s second-most-senior military officer, called the rapid rise of the Chinese military “stunning.”
“The pace they’re moving and the trajectory that they’re on will surpass Russia and the United States if we don’t do something to change it,” he told the Defense Writers Group
Glenn Crowther says
The US is “going gung ho to provoke China for a Taiwan fight” because that is goal of the Neocon Plan for A New American Century.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were part of this plan, the proxy wars in Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Thailand, dozens of others around the globe, Law-fare and militant coups, the Ukrainian proxy war against Russia and the coming war against China, are all part of this plan for world hegemony through multi-spectrum domination, fighting wars simultaneously on several fronts by any means necessary. It’s the Neocon plan.
Yes the world, especially Russia and China, has changed since Robert Kagan and William Kristol wrote the plan in 1998. Cheney and Rumsfeld are gone, but it’s still the Neocon plan and the Neocons are psychopaths so can’t admit it’s failing little alone change tack because they actually are dumb enough to believe it’s still the world of 1998 and can’t work out what they are doing wrong or even see that they are the bad guys.
Bill Osborne Jr says
A big concern is what will the Neocon reaction be to a Russian victory in the Ukraine? They may decide that if they are not going to be the rulers of the new multipolar world order then launch a full on nuclear war. What good is the world if we are not going to be the ones ruling over it? I think that they are fully capable of this.
Mickey Hickey says
While there are people that are convinced that the US gov’t is mentally deranged. I disagree with that and suggest that they suffer from mental impairments that are borderline and are not likely to self immolate. Over a few decades they will learn to survive in a multipolar world. The UK, much to my surprise is circling the drain to irrevelancy while trying to match Poland in their anti Russian hostility. Definitely self destructive tendencies there.
This guy gets it.
What’s the old saying about the golden rule? “He who has the gold, rules.”
We used to have the gold but now we are 30 trillion dollars in the ditch and with a hyperinflated dollar due to money printing that has caused us to have to ship off our manufacturing because it can’t be competitive. People laugh at the ruble, but I would argue that the ruble is closer to being priced appropriately than the dollar is.
I forget what Russia’s debt to GDP ratio was, I seem to remember 13% for some reason. We spent our money on stupid wars and playing empire, they invested in their own country. Not hard to see where this is going.
Right after I posted the above, I went downstairs and made a sandwich. I bought some Del Duca prosciutto at Meijer’s the other night. The shelf tag said $4.29, but it was “buy one get one free” at $4.69, if that makes any sense, so I bought two packages.
I opened up one of the packages just now. There is a total of five slices of prosciutto in there. Five slices! Why bother putting that in a package?
This is due in part to all the warmongers who think spending money abroad is more important than minding our finances at home.
“We used to have the gold but now we are 30 trillion dollars in the ditch” – and the gold is gone, long gone. The American gold depository has not been audited since the 1950s.
Alex Thrace (Steel Gallows) says
There was a whistle-blower a while back who told Ron Paul that the only thing left in Ft Knox was a few pallets of old coin melted from FDRs robbery of the American people.
A lot left before Nixon cut off the redeemability of the dollar and most of what is at the Fed belongs to others or is “leased” which is concept that makes no sense.
But even if there was gold in Ft Knox it would actually belong to the Federal Reserve, a private bank, FDR sold it to them and they bought it fair and square. I guess that is how they can get away with the leasing scam.
There is only one solution.
Gallows built of a sturdy material designed for heavy use.
Andrew Charnley says
I really love the idea of bringing back the Stocks, but not the Wall Street Variety, but the ones where we, the people, get our revenge with rotten tomatoes and other nasty slimy stuff – Earth to earth, dust to dust and slime to slime – quite appropriate.
In my opinion, West thought that sanctions hammer would be enough for them to defeat RU on the long run, which would basically put RU in the race against the time.
With that basic premise, UKR was more then adequately armed/prepared to inflict enormous casualties to RU if they attempted to finish it quickly with big arrow offensives.
All in all, I don’t think that they have expected RU economy and society to be this resilient, especially since already now SMO have claimed similar or more RU casualties then Soviet Afghanistan did in much longer time, and last time there were plenty of protests that have forced retreat in the fist place.
Of course, they also did not take into consideration that USSR was way less cohesive as there were plenty of 5th column people mostly from Baltic states and UKR that were part of the country back then but were out of the country this time.
Mr. Johnson- i think the usa and the brits are going to regret they never ended this last april when they could have. By then they knew the sanctions were not going to work. They just cannot seem to do anything else except double down. If they were playing in tony saprono;s poker game he would own all of their assets by know like one episode where one chronic gamber who was tony`s friend lost his sporting goods store . Unfortunately these clowns will end up losing our whole country unless they are stopped.
this is the bullony we are told below . i think there is allot of truth that that ukraine had allot of troops at the donbass border ready to take out the donbass in early march and on feb25th russia struck to preempt their plans with 190000 men which is not a full invasian to start with.
When you think about it feb 25th it is the beginning ot the spring mud season in the ukraine.
if you are planning to invade the ukraine; you would do it in early January when the ground is fully frozen or in May when the ground is firm and you would use at least a half a million men.
Spot on. As I recall the Russian forces did have some problens with mud early in the SMO.
Edward Abbey says
“The post Cold War “Pox Americana” as Larry Johnson has called it, is over. ”
I’m confused. Was this article penned by a guest writer?
Larry Johnson says
Yes. Read the opening paragraph.
Ghost of Mozgovoy says
And the map ilustrating is also from the author?
If so, I am wondering what he means by it.
I read this past day Mr. Medvedev´s predictions for the next year, which seamed to me quite plausible. But Mr. Medvedev left curiously Spain out of his mentions.
Just recalled that by watching your map….
Øyvind Holmstad says
We produce a lot of ammunition for the Ukraine forces at Raufoss. The boss got a salary increase of 80% not to quit and do his best in these difficult times, running the factories day and night. The Norwegian weapon factories were situated in the valley of Raufoss on the western side of Lake Mjøsa, to protect it from attacks from the Swedes. Now NAMMO bought these factories from the Norwegian state.
Besides of weapons and work for all, we too benefit from our gas exports.
I just wonder about the “War production capacity” of the West. Working in industry myself, I know industry can do vast amounts, just think how many PET bottles are produced every day. But war industrial output is surely kept secret. So, who knows more?
just saying says
Industry makes vast amounts of PET bottles because they are sold in vast ammounts. You don’t invest in large industrial capabilites if you can’t sell the stuff. Up until this year, artillery shells had very limited market. Five years ago, would you have invested money in a factory that could produce million of those a year?
Russia and China have state owned arms industry that don’t operate on profit based principles. They build factories with lot of extra capacity, just in case. Doing stuff like that is not very good for the economy in peace time, but comes very handy in times of war.
Fulano de Tal says
“Russia and China have state owned arms industry that don’t operate on profit based principles.”
Many people in the west (most of them in USA), are unable to grasp the concept of common good. Anything that is not profit oriented is sin, evil .. communism.
In Russia they produce poison to eliminate enemies, vaxes to fight covid, or weapons to fight other countries simply because they need them, not to make profit.
(In Spain, when covid started, we were not even able to produce masks or ventilators …)
just saying says
I’ve just read this news, and remembered someone from Norway posting about it here:
How long it took to make those 10,000 shells is anyone’s guess.
Deplorable Dave Parsons says
“Why, if a great offensive to take the Donbas and breakout is about to begin, would the Russians be intensely fortifying the line they already hold?”
Because Russia has decided there will be no more retreats, and the fortifications will never be abandoned. The “breakout” will actually be a north-to-south invasion from Russia along the eastern side of the Dnieper, cutting off all river crossings and squeezing the Ukraine forces between the Donbass fortifications and the larger invading force.
Easier said than done, I suppose, but Putin may be tiring of this war and looking to win it soon.
Firstly, Putin cannot get tired of this war. Russian society can get tired, and this is not felt at all. There is a sense of confidence in victory, for which the Russians are ready to pay a high price. Because the West itself has done everything to convince the Russians that they are not fighting at all to seize Ukrainian territories that were historically Russian. Were and so what? Russians are fighting for their homeland, for their existence, for their way of life, for the life of future generations. Russian Russians are constantly hearing from the West: to separate, destroy, cancel, humiliate, overthrow, kill, Russians are not people, Russian animals…How can you get tired of fighting for your life?
Secondly, Putin cannot hope for something, Putin, if he is not sure of the result, does not start. Gathers strength, waits for the right moment, holds back. If he started, he goes to the end.
well stated! This is something that many can read, but not have it ‘hit home’ with true comprehension of the people of the Rodina and the ramifications yet to be recognised.
10 to 1 says
You probe with a bayonet. If you strike steel, pull back. If you strike mush, push forward.
Kind of says it all.
That’s exactly what I’ve been thinking, only I suspect it will also include a south-to-north force from Melitopol. But definitely along the eastern side of the Dnieper, taking the bridges, and then surrounding and hammering the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass. That would also explain the newly created fortifications as well (anvil for the hammer). Control of the bridges would also allow for a similar move down the west bank, trapping Ukrainian forces in Kherson against the Dnieper and fortified Russian positions on the east bank. With potential for an advance toward Odessa.
That’s exactly what I’ve been thinking, only I suspect it will also include a south-to-north force from Melitopol. But definitely along the eastern side of the Dnieper, taking the bridges, and then surrounding and hammering the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass. That would also explain the newly created fortifications as well (anvil for the hammer). Control of the bridges would also allow for a similar move down the west bank, trapping Ukrainian forces in Kherson against the Dnieper and fortified Russian positions on the east bank. With potential for a final advance toward Odessa.
Actually my bet is that the current situation which Putin is facing is a mirror-image of the one he faced in February. Then, Ukraine et al. were ready to invade the Donbass & Putin knew it. Coming up soon, NATO et al. are getting ready to invade Ukraine and Putin knows it. If he can decisively win the war/SMO with Ukraine before NATO gets involved, his path forward is much easier.
I am wondering what the “deep state” (Peter Dale Scott) related to the energy sector has up their sleeves once they think they can destroy Russia? Will they uncap all those wells and reestablish America as a major energy producer and shock the world?
It’s all about the energy.
Scott Apple says
Sounds like 3 Days of the Condor
BS in Geologic Sciences says
Pure fantasy, not even fiction. Some rudimentary research called for here.
I think one way the death of the Pox Americana and the decline of the West can be viewed is through the lens of Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’s five stages death and dying. First up is denial, then anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance. It’s pretty clear to anyone who cares to look closely, as Larry and Mr Lipscomb have, that the US and the combined West are presently deep in denial.
No matter the reality on the ground, the in-your-face-facts, the US and especially its propaganda outlets just can’t accept that the defeat of Ukraine is not only inevitable, but coming soon to a battlefield near you. Once they do see it, once they can no longer deny it publicly and privately, then we’re going to see them shift to anger, which is probably where the neocon crazies are already at.
That’s going to be the danger point; an outburst of irrational fury that their little fantasy world has collapsed. That’s where the risk of a nuclear provocation or all-out war is at its peak. If we can get past that point, if the volcano can blow without it being fatal, then we might make it to bargaining where negotiations are possible. To my mind there can be no negotiated settlement until we reach the emotional calm that follows anger.
As for depression and acceptance, well, let’s get past the first three stages before we count our chickens. Thanks again Larry for giving space to friends like Thomas Lipscomb who have something worthwhile to contribute.
Douglas Worthington says
There is only one form that any “negotiations” will take: the unconditional surrender of the Ukrainian regime, and by extension, NATO forces. This has been alluded to several times by very powerful people in the Russian government, especially in recent months as the genocidal hatred of all things Russia has surfaced among current and past leaders of the West. Negotiated settlement was once possible, in December 2021, but that time has passed. So the true order of things will be as follows: denial, then anger, then capitulation, then depression, then acceptance.
Excellent observation of the elevated danger during the anger stage.
“’rule-based’ global hegemony”
The problem is that the United States owns the world franchise and “do as I say, not as I do.” The rules only apply to others, Uncle Sam breaks them at will.
(In, not and in the first sentence.)
Stefan G says
You describe what exeptionalism means.
And I think that in the long run it will be a desaster for the United States. Because to postulate that one is the exeption and does not need to apply to the rules is evil.
And for one who does evil deeds, is that someone not evil?
In another life I was a Customs analyst and was always suspicious when cargo documentation was ‘too perfect’.
Normal people, rightly, find regs. & formalities tedious and beneath contempt so give them the attention they deserve, as little as possible.
Another certain way of ascertaining a lie, when interviewing a PoI, was the well prepared answer.
Both are now to be found in the erstwhile liberal/progressive media – a prime example being the gutless Grauniad (UK) being now a shadow of its former self and all too willing, nay eager, to kow-tow to the prevailing orthodoxy when Money/Power decrees ‘Truth’ – “yes Sir, no Sir, 3 bags full Sir!”.
Just a small point re the phrase “Parthian shot” – I know that common usage has come to mean a ‘parting shot’ or jibe when leaving but it originated in the highly effective ancient tactic of appearing to flee in retreat.
This encourage overconfidence in the foe who rush forward into the swarm of arrows unleashed by the expert horsemen who could turn in the saddle (without stirrups!) and fire from their small, powerful composite bows.
Cheap, nimble and devastating which is not a feature of the blundering behemoth of the US in its NATO guise – a sheep in wolf’s clothing.
Jack R Sampson says
Larry, I know you like movie clips. Here’s one which I believe describes what 2023 is going to be like for us.
2023 be like: “This business will get out of control, and we’ll be lucky to live through it!”
I suspect the defensive lines being built by the Russians are part of a Hammer and Anvil strategy of surrounding Ukrainian forces and driving them against emplacements…..fire cauldrons will destroy concentrations of men and material but to decimate to the man….a physical barrier must be utilized…..but bear in mind they could be am elaborate feign….. misdirection
10 to 1 says
The Russian staff probably realizes US intelligence gathering capabilities can not only see the battlefield but hear what is being said. That said, deception is Russia’s friend.
just saying says
The defensive lines are there because it’s better to have them and
not need them, than need them and not have them. When I was in the military (a lifetime ago), one of the officers said something that roughly translates to: if the rifle is not in use, the shovel shoud be.
Eric Newhill says
Thomas H. Lipscomb sees the situation heading along the same dangerous trajectory that I do (US combat boots on ground/US missile strikes on Russia/WW3/nuclear exchange) – propelled by US hubris, incompetence, stupidity and belligerence. In way, nice to know I’m not a kooky lone voice in the wilderness. In another way, I wish I was way off-base. I hope Lipscomb has a means of getting this concern out of the wilderness and right in front of a much wider audience in the US.
Big Balinese Wheel Money says
“I hope Lipscomb has a means of getting this concern out of the wilderness and right in front of a much wider audience in the US”
They’d just ignore it. “NFL playoffs, duuuuuuuude! Man, how come beer’s so expensive now? The government should do sumthin’!”
Mike D. says
For the non sports fan, Sophie Vergara pictures in a bikini
‘how come beer’s so expensive now? The government should do sumthin’!”’
Mastering the Masses says
You’re scarin’ the hell out of me in general futility terms.
Slovan Rudolf Maister says
Larry C. Johnson Today 01/01 2023 I personally do not care what USA is doing nor RF nor war in Ukraine. But i do care for all of subscribers to your Youtube Ch. and of this very informative site of yours a HAPPY NEW YEAR. Let us grow in numbers and enlighten those that are folowing rubish media and powers to be of darkness. Let us Shine.
Pozdrav iz Slovenije
I agree with Larry that our “ruling elites” have become so guided by ideology and narrative that they are incompetent. Look no further than the “net zero” advances and the absolutely unworkable ideas of no fossil fuels that are being foisted on the US and Europe. Any decent engineer and easily show why these ideas are suicide for the economy and the society but they are being done regardless, and the elites are making a fortune for the conversion.
Why would we expect rationality from the same elites with respect to the elements of national power or how we are trying to rule over the world. Societies fall when their elites ignore reality– so …
A very good piece, excellent.
The author asks, ‘Will a desperate US/NATO fabricate some cause and actually physically intervene to try to prevent the inevitable defeat of Ukraine?’
Sadly I think the answer is ‘yes.’
Why? Because they can’t stop. They’re incapable of it.
Obama, Biden and their fools, including the neocons, are dangerous because their deluded and grandiose view of the world, is in fact a reflection of their deluded and grandiose view of themselves.
In reality, they’re not very intelligent or even impressive people. Most of them only know life inside the Beltway. They are cunning and cruel political operators, maybe, but only in that world. Most would struggle outside it.
However, the fact is that they do wield enormous power, which allows them to shape reality (or try to) in order to support their deluded views of themselves. These are psychiatrically very ill people. It goes beyond malign grandiose narcissism. We are swimming into the frightening waters of the sociopath/psychopath, as well.
The grandiosity is off the charts. Despite all evidence to the contrary, these people truly believe that they are the most progressive humans to have ever lived. They regard themselves as intellectually and morally superior to everyone else.
Therefore it is impossible for them to make a mistake, and anyone who disagrees with them is not just ‘wrong’, but inferior.
It also entitles them – in their warped view of themselves – to power, forever. After all, if you are superior to everyone else in every way – but also morally superior – no one else deserves power.
What we call lying, election rigging, etc means nothing to them. You see, they would say it is absolutely essential that they have power and control , because only they know what is right and what is good.
In their insane world, they’re actually HELPING you. They are the noble patriots, unifying the society and making the sacrifice. It’s like in the kids film Shrek, when Lord Farquard announces ‘I have decided that many will have to die, and that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make’ or words to that effect.
See how batshit crazy they are?
As we see 24/7, it is simply impossible for them to think objectively. They actively avoid doing so, because it would risk them having to accept that they are normal human beings just like everyone else, and to accept failure and responsibility.
We see this in Ukraine. For example, most sane people would question their approach if confronted with their decisions causing the death of over 100,000 Ukrainian men, with the immense suffering this is causing to families and friends of the dead.
Not the likes of Biden etc. They only accept evidence that confirms their superiority, remember. Everything else is rejected or blamed on others.
Therefore, their only option in Ukraine is to keep escalating and doubling down, in the hope that the outcome they need – the one that confirms their greatness – will eventually happen.
To us, it looks like insanity of the highest order (it is). To them, however, there is no alternative, as any other approach would entail them being objective and accepting failure, which as I’ve explained above, they are incapable of doing.
How far will they go? Contrary to others, I don’t think they’ll do anything that risks a nuclear exchange. This would mean the end for them, the destruction of the make-believe world they need to keep intact at all costs – and they know it.
However, they’ll push things further than what we have seen to date. I can see them bullying further proxies to kill their own people (eg Poland), and if needs be they’ll commit young US men and women in the field to be killed, too. All these moves will fail.
I think that’s as far as they’ll go. Once the risk of their delusions being shattered becomes too high in Ukraine, I think these monsters will just walk away.
BTW even in defeat, these psychos will never admit they are wrong . Let’s assume that the Russians win an epoch-defining victory, and emerge even stronger. The lunatics running the West will still claim that the West has won, Russia has lost and that Russians are inferior, vodka willing peasants.
They are incapable of letting go of these fictions.
Leaving Ukraine behind them a battered wreck of misery and despair, they will then find new sources for the narcissistic supply they so desperately crave – and they’ll hollow them out as well.
Sadly I think their next target to devour (already started) will be their own sicieties. They will suck the adulation they crave from the cowards in society who will give them praise in return for safety, while also inflicting more and more pain on those who refuse to submit.
They are dangerous monsters. Unless these people are removed from power (and I’m beyond caring how it’s done), it’s going to be a very tough time for those of us in the western world who advocate objective, critical thinking, humility and respect for differences of opinion and culture, as well as acceptance of our own weaknesses and failures.
Apologies for long post, hope it helps keeping the discussion going.
Big Balinese Wheel Money says
Agree mostly, except “I don’t think they’ll do anything that risks a nuclear exchange. This would mean the end for them, the destruction of the make-believe world they need to keep intact at all costs – and they know it”, because if they have to, they will burn everything down in their lust for blood and fire and death, because we worthless peons proved unworthy of their greatness and so must suffer the most painful demise possible. Their irrationality is already out of control, why wouldn’t they believe they’d survive a nuclear war and emerge as the new Lord Humongouses of the wasteland?
The Neocons are the Jews. They can not be removed from power. Not unless you include finance and media.
Khazar Trotsky Internationalist
joyce prashaad says
Wow, well done!
Excellent summary, difficult to fault.
In Germany they say which way will the Grey Cat Jump (army).
In America it’s which way will the Bald Eagle strike?
The three shames: Vietnam, Afghanistan & Ukrainian plus all the other less than stellar, sad sack conflicts. ( all against the poor folks without air defence). Enough of Wall Street money calling the play of game, will be the decider.
Everything you have described has not been lost on US muscle.
Have a close look at the hook on the eagles beak not to mention
the talons on the end of the toes. Kicking ass or ripping another arse hole.
If Washington is playing the “doubling down” game with the Russians they need to think about the big silent guy sat at the table with all his aces still in play.
“In the end, it’s always situational awareness that counts the money on the table.”
Mike D. says
Obama made a point of saying the past need not be paid attention to. His awesomeness had it figured out.
U.N. OUT OF USA, USA OUT OF U.N. says
Which is why “history repeats itself”, because dumb asses like Obama never learn from history (or their past mistakes). It’s also why, as Einstein pointed out, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. Again, the dumb ass Obama thinks he is so special that none of these truisms apply to him. LOL!
U.N. OUT OF USA, USA OUT OF U.N. says
Also, how can Captain Teleprompter say to ignore history but then champion “reparations” for historical grievances? Again, he is a dumb ass.
I’ve always come down to the same basic question: ‘Are the villains in the W.E.F. crazy or evil’? If they are both, then we are in Adolf Hitler Country.
With regard to “However, they’ll push things further than what we have seen to date. I can see them bullying further proxies to kill their own people (eg Poland)” — I hope even these dumb f*cks running the US of A have enough brain cells to realize that if any NATO country gets involved / pushed as yet another american patsy (poland, the 3balts, etc.) Russia does not need to fight them by sending their sons and daughters into the battle.
If a poland chooses to die, then Russia can simply accommodate: 10-20 tactical nukes, maybe one strategic missile to delete warsaw in one go — and with 50% of the population gone and all brave polish military fried to the crisp — I suspect this WILL have a cooling and sobering effect on the utmost imbeciles inside the beltway.
Then Russia can simply post on Twitter a picture of a Sarmat with a note scribbled on it saying “Hey, Washington swamp, I am coming to dry you up, please get your champagne flutes ready to celebrate, I will take care of the fireworks!” and the message will sink through, I am sure.
you have just described the middle-lower-upper-“class” (perceived) of the entire West, and hingers-on/acolytes everywhere.
i live in this world, have seen it rapidly evolve in the past 3 decades. I never wanted to be part of it. Corporate. evil.
integrity? morals? no room for that in western world.
Since the black mirrors came out, the entire world has been darkened especially.
its not just the leaders/clowns et al, it is the entire moron clownworld culture we drown in. Clowns with daggers and vicious agendas and malignant intolerance. Your soul their goal, everywhere.
Narcissism was always a soft version of some psycho-/socio-, let’s be honest.
good comment, the battle is not geopolitiks, it is one’s Soul.
Next is project China. There’s near consensus in the una party and considerable popularity among the general population as it also satisfies the undercurrent racism that is helpful in forming such narrative. This china project is a neo con/neo liberal wet dream……it’s going to be a long one with plenty of moolas and millions of cubic meters of hot air for everyone.
Mark j says
Meanwhile…the US stones the Dombass partition..but activates the Syria/Kurd partition:
I always tend to look through the economic window…as all wars are generally banker wars. Very good read on the de dollerization … timing and effects. Economic growth by debt expansion is over. US has proven that. Economic growth requires energy growth. Financializing oil.. printing for tankers… the jig is up.
Good piece, mr. Lipscomb. I think the time for a coalition of the willing direct support for Ukraine is probably passed. Too much material already went to Ukraine and it doesn’t look like that sort of intervention would tip the balance dramatically. I say that partially because there are a lot of regular Russian forces who have nothing to do with the current conflict. Russia holding them back must affect the US decision making process.
Russia hasn’t done anything like they we were supposed to. The problem with the US plan was that it was based on a lot of assumptions for Russian behavior like a mad dash to Kiev to topple the government, that sanctions would be globally adopted and crippling, etc. There do not appear to have been any plan b’s put together based on possible Russian behavior. Everything since plan a turned out to be based on faulty assumptions has been reactive.
A million artillery shells to no discernible effect. 2,000 tanks and innumerable vehicles, equipment, etc. to no discernible effect and supplied piecemeal. Kharkov worked, but it required 4-5 months to make happen. None of this suggests a tight plan or even really an implementation of plan b. Looks like a shit show for the media and political self-congratulations. They always have plans for that.
“Historians of the future …”
Let’s hope there are some.
“Why, if a great offensive to take the Donbas and breakout is about to begin, would the Russians be intensely fortifying the line they already hold?”
You know, I am going to defend the honor of the Russian Army here, because I’m tired of people – including me, who keep asking, “why did this army disappear in April, and not come back, are they scared?” – intimating that the Russian General Staff is incapabable of thinking big.
The Russian General Staff is going to defend this contact line if takes the rest of decade (!), seems to be all I’m hearing these days from my Russian sources.
Ye of little faith. As if defending is all they can think to do.
The Russian Army, whence we see it again, is going to do what it did in the beginning, and sweep down from the north, only this time, they will do it with some serious intent. Kiev will be surrounded and starved into submission by a portion of this sweeping force, while the rest of the army motors down the M05 axis toward Odessa, to not only cut Ukraine in half, but to trap everything to the east of it in the Mother of All Potential Cauldrons.
– Besides, as we all know, you don’t attack Odessa from east to west, or west to east for that matter. You attack it from north to south. At least that’s how both the Wehrmacht and the Red Army chose to do it in WWII, and for good military reasons, as it is always easier for an army to march parallel to river systems, that to march across them. –
The Russians need to get this over with before the drones start showing up in numbers. The Americans may be insane, but they’re not stupid. I’m sure they’re watching the same thing I’m watching, and have come to the same conclusion I have, that drones will rule the conventional and multi-dimensional battlefields of the future (as if there could be such a thing), and are not thinking about HIMARS, Patriots, artillery shells, and other such tommyrot, but only about drones, drones, and more drones.
If they want to keep this proxie war going that it is. Which they do.
Note: What about missiles, you might ask, can’t a conventional war be also be fought with missiles? Well the answer is, we don’t really know, do we, because up until this point in the war, the missile traffic has mostly been, all one way.
My contention since I turned 12 in 1972, is that a conventional war between the Great Powers is impossible, for simple reason that in the Age of the Missile, once they start flying, nuclear war is just minutes away, for the simple reason that those on the receiving end will never know whether incoming objects are carrying conventional warheads, or a nuclear ones.
For instance, the Americans could launch a missile attack on Russia from their boomers just off Russia’s northern coast, and Joe Biden might call up Vladimir Putin and say to him, “Mr. President, nothing to worry about. The blips that are right now appearing on your radar screens are carrying high explosives only, they are not going to release 2,000 nuclear warheads that in the coming minutes will start vaporizing targets near you.”
“That’s right Vladimir. There is no need to launch an intercontinental nuclear retaliatory strike. And yes, I’m doing fine, just fine, thanks for inquiring. That’s very kind of you. My people tell me that I shake the hands of ghosts, but I have no recollection of this.”
“Ok, indeedy do, it’s been nice talking to you too. Bye bye now.”
Excellent read btw, thanks for it.
Big Balinese Wheel Money says
“The Americans may be insane, but they’re not stupid.”
That’s as maybe, but what the “Americans” in charge here are most assuredly is IGNORANT. Ignorant of the realities, political, economic, and military, and ignorant of the capabilities of anyone who isn’t some Beltway insider. If they were merely stupid would be one thing, but they’ve succeed through their efforts to mostly ‘disinform’ themselves, and that makes them profoundly dangerous.
The neocons who are running US foreign policy adhere to a philosophy that regards war as a desirable activity, so long as the fighting and dying is done by others and not themselves. The fact that they have maintained their positions of prominence even in the wake of the many debacles they have brought about is deeply disturbing. It suggests that they will never be held accountable for their failures. Who, after all, would hold them to account, when both the US political and media elites have been largely complicit in these failures? The American public is in a state of anesthesia, neither knowing nor caring about the crimes and blunders that are being perpetrated in their names and paid for with their money. This is, indeed, the end of the empire, and there is no force that can prevent its demise at this point.
Curt Nichols says
I think those new Russian fortifications are planning for Western insanity. For the Ukraine war they are not needed. Those are needed if the lunatic West invades with NATO. It is the same reason Ukraine is not crushed now. Russia has to withhold arms and men for the NATO insertion. Russia is not fighting Ukraine. Russia is fighting the Evil Empire. They have to plan on a full-bore offensive from NATO, the EU, and the US. And they are planning to win it without nukes. And I see ZERO chance of the West coming to its senses and taking its losses and stepping back. There will be blood. It is the only thing my American Empire of Death knows. And when your main ally is the chickenshit Chinese? You dig foxholes and hold a reserve back. And that takes longer. But. The Russians are already well into converting their economy into an industrial war economy. We are still in the “Lets fuck the taxpayers with Raytheon and make big bucks” mindset. This is a game of timing. And I see the Russian chess players a move or two ahead. I bought another 2000 rounds of that marvelous IMI 77grain M262 clone. And some more big bags of rice and beans. I was really hoping to enjoy my remaining time with my dog. And then go to Thailand and send a lot of young women thru hair and nail college. While using my Veterans Administration allotment of 6 Viagra a month. It has been a source of much puzzlement to me how me taking a bullet was worth 6 erections a month. In any case, I don’t see that happening anymore.
Douglas Worthington says
I wouldn’t call the Chinese “chickenshit.” Wise, yes, befitting a civilization that makes the US look like a drunk teenager. What’s happening in the western Russian borderlands is not China’s conflict, and they’re better served preparing for the nefarious plans the US has re: Taiwan. It’ll be the Ukraine, redux, only with a US-organized energy embargo against the Chinese mainland as icing on the cake. The entire world outside the West’s influence and control is fortifying defenses in a similar vein. Stay as quiet as possible, and prepare.
I’ll also note that I regard the Russian Federation’s main ally, at least in the most important spiritual sense, as the Islamic Republic of Iran. Don’t think religion; think civilizational spirituality.
I agree, China is not cowardly. Also, China is not a US government ally. China has been doing joint exercises with Russia over the past months. One was in the northeast Pacific. We have important defense installations in the Seattle area, including bases for the nuclear Navy. Recently they were in the East China Sea together.
To me, the message is that they would act together if the US becomes toxic enough to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
Doug, how would “US-organized energy embargo against the Chinese ” work considering their borders with the Stans, Mongolia and eastern Russia?
I can’t see how.
Curt Nichols says
I just think China is making a big mistake. They are trying to play both sides of the fence. They still want to trade with the West. But they “support” Russia. The USA has directly said everything except that we are bombing China back to the stone age. They are going to sanction, economically blockade, and destroy China. They are directly stating that. And if Russia fails? China is next. Maybe China is playing for time. But just like with their idiotic Covid policy, they are glacially slow. And the affairs of the world are being settled NOW. My one defense of China is this. You can’t sanction Russia. They supply 40% of the worlds fuel, food, and rare minerals. China? They don’t live without oil tankers inbound and freighters full of geegaws outbound. And they have a coastal Navy. China is easy to blockade. Life would suck if we cut Chinese imports to zero. But we would not die. If we did that? China WOULD die. But China needs to realize, just like Putin seems to be, that the West only has one goal. Complete and total destruction of every sovereign nation. US foreign policy is easy. You are a slave. Or you are dead.
Could the US blockade China if our aircraft carriers were at the bottom of the ocean?
You’re thinking of China 20 years ago.
Now China has hypersonic anti-ship missiles and the largest surface fleet in the world, primarily DDs and frigates with anti-ship missiles. A blockade might be possible, but don’t try it inside its missile umbrella. And in general, don’t give a nuclear power a “nothing to lose” mentality.
martin mkultra7 says
Curt,what a load of twattle.Ask any Korean war vet about those chickenshit Chinese.I am sure my dead brother would strongly disagree.The Russians are not converting anything,they are ramping up.M262? Get a real gun.
Curt Nichols says
You have my deepest regrets for the loss of your brother sir. May he rest easy.
Spoken like an ignorant American, simplistic and out of depth. May I suggest that you forget about chickenshit yellow people and limit yourself to pondering on your allotment of 6 blue pills a month and comment on why even they don’t work. Your prayers are soon to be answered, ……plenty to share the kickass heroic action coming soon to your favorite sea in South China. Yeah….we’ll show dem coward Chinese not to mess widdus.
A failure of that magnitude is only possible if the elites of the country decide to betray the people and go it alone and build their shiny city on the hill – Christopher Lash wrote his famous book prefiguring the shift in America’s elite towards what is in place today a Davosian nightmare that will end badly for everybody.
Proscuitto from a Marxist outfit like Meijers? Are you from Larry the finger Nassar land where the cultural anthropologist Meijer emanates? I miss Givi and Motorola.
Marcos aguilera says
Hello Larry As you say, I think that the next step for NATO and the US in escalation is to put boots on the ground, Poland is the first to sign up on the list, Russia knows it and is preparing for it, what will come after Those troops go through the Russian meat grinder will be the most dangerous thing humanity has ever experienced.
Bill Osborne Jr says
Poland may be planning on taking a large chunk of western Ukraine and leaving the east to the Russians. Expect some big moves in the next couple of months.
The Rev. David R. Graham says
Tom’s elevation and coverage of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth kept John Kerry from occupying the White House. Tom is a truth teller, always has been.
martin mkultra7 says
Dear REV,Swift boat veterans for truth?It was not some righteous grassroots organization .It was a political construct to corrupt an election,follow the money,QUI BONO?Where are they now?
Steve Manning says
NATO won’t do shit. Many reasons. They only have weapons for perhaps 3-4 weeks of high intensity conflict. They couldn’t handle the loses. No one wants to die for these scumbags in charge nor ideals they represent. All this the Generals know and would be a mutiny.
A retired French General who was a friend of Col. MacGregor told him that France had four days of ammo for a balls-to the-wall war. Perhaps they produced a tad more since world-wide lunacy hath prevailed in Natoland, as of late.
Christian Chuba says
This touches a nerve in me. I am convinced that the country who is losing the Cold War convinces themselves that they are winning.
I do believe that Russia was in denial in the 80’s, they maintained a massive army, 5M personnel, occupied satellite states, and propped up Cuba’s economy with subsidies.
Now, it’s our turn.
Bottom line is that because of a lot of naivete, self-interest, gluttony and stupidity, we gave away our world leadership in the one thing that matters most: Wealth.
Pox Americana costs the country money. We have people who benefit from that, so they pull the strings to get the government to print more money so the gusher of money flows in their pockets. Next thing you know, the country is broke, our economy is uncompetitive and the powers that be keep doubling down on the same disastrous policies that got us here in the first places.
The most important thing any family or business does is keep their eye on the money situation. Our stupid government refuses to do that and takes the easy way out when it comes to printing money. That’s why you have a hollowed out shell of a country these days.
(Life is fine for me, by the way. But as for the country as a whole? When it costs $30 to take a family of four to Wendy’s, I have my doubts.
John Merryman says
Government, as executive and regulatory function is the central nervous system of society, while money and banking are blood and the circulation system.
With public government and private banking, banking rules. So the only real jobs the flunkies and hustlers have, is running up the public debt the banks need to function. The secret sauce of capitalism is public debt backing private wealth.
The Federal debt has been growing since the New Deal, so not only was Roosevelt putting unemployed labor back to work, but unemployed capital as well. The WW2 came along as the largest public works project in history and the die was cast.
So the MIC is really the trophy wife of the banks. It burns through all the money borrowed into existence, so more can be borrowed and doesn’t empower any sectors of society that might question the power of the wealthy. So they can do whatever they want and no one is held to account for the results.
Can you imagine any other time in history when anything approaching this level of military ineptitude and strategic incompetence wouldn’t have had those responsible lined up and shot?
The problem this has created is it puts enormous power in the hands of people with no actual authority and responsibility to temper and guide their principles and judgement. Essentially spoiled children with matches. So the stage actors have devolved into psychopaths.
Given this dynamic has the strategic aptitude of bacteria racing across the petri dish, since government is the decision making function, it will crash and burn, so the only question is what will replace it.
If the medium enabling markets is privately held, we are all tenant farmers to the banks, so we move onto public banking, or we will have to revert back to some form of private government. As Russia and China have somewhat done, with Putin and Xi.
Or we go bankrupt like Russia did in late 1990’s and start with a new system, and a new Constitution which resembles a well run private corporation such as Russia does now, where The President is CEO, The Prime Minister is COO, a dozen or so Deputy Prime ministers being in charge of different operational zones and Security council is the Board of Director. Two branches of legislature is like a large multifunctional legal department writing and updating Laws coordinating with the leaders (Rules and regulations).
This is an over simplification, hopefully point is made.
Majority of Westerners who only read MSM think that Russia is run by a Communist dictator. When there is an enormous canyon between facts and fiction, whole construct is similar to a multi storied building built on sand. When it falls, the fall is rapid and dramatic like the fall of Soviet Union.
Hubris doesn’t have a brake or reverse gear, hence History repeats some times and rhymes at other times.
John Merryman says
Michael Hudson wrote a good book on how this dynamic played out in the Ancient world. Here is an interview on Naked Capitalism;
Thanks. I didn’t read that particular interview but read many of his other articles and watched several interviews.
Hopefully the West will learn from Russia in future a thing or two such as living with in our means including reasonable and payable debt, adequate Reserves for future economic surprises, Defense Department existing solely for Defense purpose and under State control and support, high quality and affordable education and health care with most or significant State support including in Higher Education.
I’ve always felt that “Bill of Rights” can never work alone without corresponding “Bill of Responsibilities” as majority are not accustomed to personal responsibility without being constantly reminded, as we are witnessing in the West now, giving rise to so called disastrous “Post Truth World” which seems to be uniquely Western thought as it exists now.
John Merryman says
If they blow up the dollar, then states will likely have to start issuing their own currencies and foreign policy will be between California and Texas, etc, not the US and the rest, so we could well go through the same break up as the USSR.
The problem we have is there is no core culture that goes back a thousand years. Hollywood and a chicken in every pot isn’t quite the same.
Art Thomas says
How is the medium of the market privately held? Money and money printing/inflation by law is completely controlled by the state with the banks the chief beneficiaries.
Real money is gold and silver which have been outlawed for that purpose because you can’t print gold and silver. How could the bankers and other political elite become filthy rich, how could the massively indebted welfare-warfare state exist if the currency in circulation had to be backed by gold as it was for the most part in the 19th C and early 20th C.?
Could the US become the most dangerous and destructive government it is if it had to live within its means and had to pay its debt in gold as it once did until 1971? Would the US once again be facing (a far more serious) economic collapse? I’d like to know.
S. Clark says
Talking of nuclear war and neocons recalls Fail Safe, the 1964 movie I did a review of in Countercurrents 4 May, 2022. Walter Matthau plays Dr. Groeteschele, a theorist who urges a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union. He is cold, analytical, and has a quiet ruthlessness. As he said, “only those who are worthy to survive will survive a nuclear war.” I think many in the beltway think they are “worthy” of survival. he also believed the weak deserve to die. I think many in our leadership still see Russia as weak, “just a country that’s a gas station and that’s all they got,” and Russia is ready to fall over and be filled with “democracy.”
The character of Groeteschele was derived from Herman Kahn, an academic strategist who favored nuclear war.
Scott Ritter has said he thinks there are enough military leaders who would head off some sort of nuclear strike by us, but I’m not sure anyone is really in charge anymore. There is a sense that the leadership in Washington, such as it is, will never quit. They’re old, insulated, and such people do not respond easily to a crisis.
At least in the movie we had Henry Fonda as president. Today, I almost see a wrestling match to grapple for control of the nuclear football.
Napoleon wanted to teach the Russian Tsar a lesson. Hitler declared USSR a “colossus on clay legs.” Fuhrer Zelensky calls Russia a “paper tiger.” They never learn, do they, even when sitting in the darkness in their bunkers, in the last days of the war.
Great post, Lika!
And yes, they never do learn. It seems God has put Russia and Russians on Earth with one important mission — every 100 years the “collective west” (nazis, fascists, napoleons, “exceptional ones”, whatevers) pull together their miserable coalition to try yet another Drang Nach Osten and Russia’s role is to smash the wests teeth to the back of its skull to pacify this murderous monster for another 100 years…
I guess it’s that time in history again.
Douglas Worthington says
Very well said, Lika and RockTime.
martin mkultra7 says
very inciteful,definatly a pattern here.
T. Martin says
(IMO) – Stated or not; it seems that the US led NATO coalition’s objective in the Ukranian conflict is to weaken Russia to the point of dismemberment. This aim ultimately would be to marginalise China’s western flank, so the US could maintain premier position in a ‘unipolar’ world. Russia is now framing the conflict , existentially, as a defensive war to maintain its sovereignty. Objectively, this ‘dirty little war’ has the potential to become a full on proxy war with the US using the Ukranians as their surrogates against China which will utilizse the Russians, as ‘proxies’, to serve their mutual interests against the USA.. Who gets bled dry first? In all probability it seems the Ukrainians will be first and then, economically, Europe. The US will then be forced to consider a ‘strategic retreat’. The latter will require more intelligence than the US has demonstrated so far.
Carlton Meyer says
One stupid thing the USA did at the beginning was to seize assets like yachts, property, and bank accounts of Russians worldwide, when they had nothing to do with the invasion of Ukraine. What did the world’s billionaires learn from that? China is a much safer place for their assets. This includes all our Arab dictator allies. Are our western courts so corrupt they will refuse to hear lawsuits from these billionaires demanding a return of their stuff? They weren’t even accused of crimes! And where did these billions of dollars go? Congress should investigate.
If the Ukrainian army collapses, a desperate USA may try what they did in Syria. Announce an American protected ceasefire line in Western Ukraine and send US and Polish troops to man it, thus daring the Russians to attack them. This would allow a face saving tie in the war, and a place to rebuild the Ukrainian army and a base for anti-Russian terrorism.
“Announce an American protected ceasefire line in Western Ukraine and send US and Polish troops to man it” — if you are talking about 3-4 regions of the Uki-stan (that used to belong to Poland back when), then yes, that’s a pretty likely scenario.
Russia does not need these provinces either as new regions of Russia (God forbid!) or as a protectorate– it’s populated by the neo-nazis / rabid Russphobes, very similar to today’s Poles. It’s most likely to be a DMZ, won’t be allowed to have an army, maybe just some limited police, under adult supervision.
If Poland “re-unites” with these long-lost regions, too bad for them (neo-nazis inhabiting that land hate everyone, Poles included).
The whole “US will protect them” won’t work as Russia will simply finish off the job if any threat comes out of that rump. And Yankees won’t be able to do anything about it, unless they are eager to get nukes flying. And even the scum inside the beltway (aka US gov) knows that.
Fulano de Tal says
They hate the Poles, and I’m sure the Poles have not forgotten what the Ukrainian Insurgent Army did to them …
What neighbors, oh my ..
I love Portugal and France so much!
martin mkultra7 says
announce a cease fire!like the 2 Maidan agreements or the 2cease fire agreements after that?Cmon people,ami the only one listening to Russia?The west has been declared “Non agreement capable.Putin has admitted his mistake in trusting the west.Anounce a ceasefire,LOL!
Interesting map; Australia’s state of WA is the same colour as India and Indonesia, from which I’m inferring that there’s some loss of territory expected.
“protected ceasefire line”
It is a possibility but I think very low probability.
What will be required to move enough boots to enforce a ?
Will not Russia notice and take action?
More likely Poland move troops to reclaim old lands. But no more.
Hungary to attempt similar? Points of military contact with Poland?
Hungary? More difficult.
just saying says
I expect Hungary to get some land as a gift from Russia.
Maybe the recently built Russian defense lines are designed so that they don’t have to worry about their line being too thin somewhere, and the Kiev forces suddenly attacking. If that happens, the Russians can fall back a short distance and hold the line there, without needing many troops.
That way, their own offensives could proceed without a sudden disaster happening elsewhere.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
One possible answer: the Russian offensive wine come along the fortified lines but elsewhere, for example across the Kharkov front or south from Belarus, while the fortifications are meant to hols the current line in the east and south while the nazis and their NATO “advisers” are annihilated elsewhere.
Yup, the old hammer and anvil, a military strategem that has been employed many thousands of times, by many thousands of actors, throughout the history of war.
Probably pre-dates war, actually, as our ancient ancestors no doubt employed the old hammer and anvil whenever they could, on their pre-historic hunts.
Note: I would also like to point out as well, the ground is frozen up north, just in case the Russian columns that are soon to be flooding southward, should feel the need to do some off-roading.
Where would you like to be if you were the Ukrainian Army in the final phase, out in the open, or within the confines of a city?
The remains of the Ukraine Army are going to end up in their major cities. This I believe to be a fait accompli, and the best way to deal with this problem if you are the Russian Army, in my opinion, will be to isolate these cities, and let them rot on the vine, until they are dead.
Or until they surrender. Given the gentlemanly nature of the current Kremlin leadership, I believe that option will always be available.
Australian Dreamer says
What do the zones in the map represent … especially the one cutting Australia in two?
Yes, I wondered about that – have secessionists from Westralia got at the cartographer?
On tuther hand, it does suggest a nice cache of ores & minerals for the taking, coloured like Africa in the pic and virtually unpopulated.
Sunday XXXIII says
Maybe Western Australia finally gets its independence 90 years after voting for it.
just saying says
It looks a bit like the world from Orwell’s 1984, but not all things match.
Shinmen Takezo says
I am afraid of what is going to happen *to public opinion) when all of this nonsense “Ukraine is winning” narrative suddenly comes apart at the seams when the Russian forces begin the offensive that they’ve been building up for.
I believe the narrative is being propelled on purpose, to deceive deliberately so that when (not if) the Russian military smashes through the Ukrainian defenses and begins a wholesale route of their military, that the MSM narrative will be quickly switched to… a “we’ve got to something” narrative in order to justify the (already being planned) ‘coalition of the willing’ intervention into the conflict. This possibly the main reason for y the false information and narratives coming out of the conflict so far.
If I am correct about my assumptions–then direct war with Russian is just on the horizon. And possibly Putin and his military realize this likely possibility as well–hence all the open preparation of their civil defense capabilities and ramping up the readiness of their nuclear forces.
Jim Christian says
Larry, didn’t Petraeus lose a star for screwing his female biographer in Afghanistan? With that sort of judgment, what’s HIS opinion worth? Serve him right if his wife took half his pension and then some. He is a major-league creep, equal to Clapper and Brennan, Jack Keene and others. And there they are, pulling $4000.00 per air shift on CNN, MSNBC and Fox extolling the virtues of this war. It’s to keep the MICC money flowing. By the end of this year (2023) they will have extracted yet another 250 million dollars or more for Ukraine. And they won’t have to answer for any of it when the entire episode is done.
I like you did the round table with Gonzalo and while the others are pretty good, it got to be too many voices. But as always, more you, more Martyanov, more MacGregor in these “meetings” solves all. They’re good kids the others, but they’re kids, except the guy with the Crimean wife was a pistol. And VERY knowledgeable about the Ukrainian social hierarchy. Murdering your political opponents by drafting them into this situation is diabolically calculating. Thanks for all your work.
Michael Murry says
“The crucial next six months.” I can recall the old days in Iraq when we used to call that an “FU” (or “Friedman Unit “) after NY Times pundit Thomas Friedman who kept flogging that dead U.S. military horse, insisting that it would get up and pull America’s little imperial wagon somewhere “successful” someday. In time we had like 40 of these FUs in Afghanistan. Then we packed up and split, but not before transporting the dead horse to Ukraine where Mr Friedman and his ilk could continue flogging it. Something still relevant, I think, even though more than 28 FUs have elapsed since I composed it:
Flogging a Flawed Figure of Speech
(From The Triumph of Strife: an homage to Dante Alighieri and Percy Shelley)
The ghosts of Vietnam return once more
To goad the greedy grasping globalists
With all the slogans that we used before
To dig a labyrinth of turns and twists
To make a maze both meaningless and mad
Of phrases gerrymandered of their gists
Desultory “debate” a futile fad,
Concocting crap from muddled metaphors
No better than the other ones we’ve had
Which couldn’t tell the ceilings from the floors;
As in a vicious vortex venom flows
And seeps in through the windows and the doors:
Those “flypaper” and “oil-spot” “dominoes”
In “final,” frantic, flailing, failing “throes.”
Sage pundits, though, see nothing here amiss
Like lawyers they can argue either way
Like snakes that think to rattle or to hiss
And then do both and neither in a play
Of words like knee-jerk whips that wildly work
To stampede, swindle, stun, or simply sway;
That tug on heartstrings with a yank or jerk
Bypassing mammal cortex thought to get
Below the surface where the lizards lurk
Primordial and primitive but yet
Still dominant in domiciles where dupes
Sit mesmerized before the TV set
Or wired in undecided focus groups
Reactive reptiles; mindless monkey troupes
Our commentators, Orwell said, survive
Much like astrologers connecting hopes
Mistakes they make aplenty yet they thrive
Dispensing dime-store drivel to the dopes
Who wish for confirmation of their dreams
While pummeled to a pulp upon the ropes
By government that only lies and schemes
Protecting power for the Party’s sake
Impervious to mounting moans and screams
Intent upon their own share of the take
The Nanny Press pontificators ply
Their frauds: fantastic, fabulous, and fake
While foreign folk and our own soldiers die
Our scribblers scrawl much less than meets the eye
They sniffle: “we are there” as if that sends
A cut-off note to stop debate in need
Of “turning points” and “lights” at tunnel-ends
In arguments as slender as a reed
Non sequiturs, red herrings, and canards:
The simple, sloppy, shabby straw-man screed
Divining “fortune” in some Tarot cards
Predicting future “blood baths” if we leave
Ignoring bloody inches, feet, and yards
In which we bathe the natives while they grieve
A fluffy fable’s faulty fife and flute
A tortured tune of losses to retrieve
From disquisition damned to render moot
Discussion of just where to place the boot
“We’re there,” they say, “because we’re there because
We’re there because we’re there because we’re there”
Nor must we for a single moment pause
To note the lawyer’s trick meant to impair
The power of the jury to reflect
On flimsy, flabby, flatulent hot air
A bogus case that reason would reject:
A monstrous question begging to conclude
Its self as “proven” by what it had wrecked
The chance to utilize an interlude:
An interregnum of intelligence;
A rare rest where some thinking could intrude
To tame a truculent intransigence:
A bloody lust for brute belligerence
Caught in the cyclone’s circularity:
A threadbare tautological typhoon;
A humbug hurricane’s insanity
Reducing logic to a senile swoon
All thought into reaction thus compressed
An empty endless “war” against the moon
With nothing known but only something guessed
Which sounds all right if no one looks too close
At what amounts to fascism repressed
Which seethes beneath the rhetoric verbose
Exploiting while disguising that which ails:
Conflicted, crass conundrums comatose
Like dogs that chase their disappearing tails
A dialectic dodge that seldom fails
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright 2006-2010
Jim S says
The globalists are committed to the Great Reset because they have no choice (as they see it). All the chickens of the past 30 years are coming home to roost, and they have opted to kick over what remains of civilization and build a new one in their own image rather than admit culpability and cede to the unwashed masses control of their own destinies. It would be better if they could bring Russia and China into this Brave New Order along with the rest of the world, but it seems they’ve accepted that Russia’s off the Reset menu. On the other hand they still view China as negotiable–and given communist Chinese politics they may be right–so their strategy will be to break China away by any means possible so as to encircle Russia both east and west.
With regards to Russia herself, they have two main courses of action:
1. Settle into a state of permanent war, ie. the 1984 scenario with Russia cast in the role of eternal adversary (same as the USSR was, until they couldn’t prop it up any longer). It would be better if they could control the adversary, but they’ll settle for demonizing her. This war will necessarily have to be fought by proxies such as Ukraine as Western military power declines drastically (acknowledging Andrei M’s contention that it was never that great to begin with). Staving off defeat/maintaining a stalemate will be achieved by classic nuclear stalemate.
2. Deliberately escalate into nuclear war, ie. the Dr Strangelove scenario. For this to work the elitists must guarantee their own survival, but civilian casualties are inconsequential and not incompatible with Great Reset goals. Ideally Russia will be destroyed, but if not, the globalists can extend into the permanent war scenario (as in COA 1) so long as they are not themselves defeated.
Again, the salient factor is that the globalists are committed to the Great Reset. Programs such as the anti-farming initiatives, energy poverty initiatives, mass illegal immigration, and governmental centralization can be undone, but the Wuhan bioweapon can’t be taken back, nor can the mRNA bioweapon employed using Wuhan as a pretext. Of the two, the mRNA bioweapon is more worrisome as it does not mutate as rapidly as a coronavirus and can be passed from mother to child, and by blood transfusion. Strictly from the humanitarian perspective I urge the CCP never to accept Western “COVID vaccines”.
Maybe the technology exists to undo mRNA bioweapon damage, but the globalists will never release it. Western populations will continue to sicken, and the crisis will continue to be exacerbated–deliberately–by Western “sick care”. The elitists are committed, and cannot allow their populations to look to Russia and see what good governance looks like; therefore, the war will continue.
In any case, these people would rather rule a molehill than share a mountaintop. I think if one calls them inhuman, they wear it as a badge of honor.
“By its total control of media the US/NATO could keep its populations learning of this catastrophe to Western power and pretensions for a considerable time. But the international effects will take place immediately.” Surely the key point in Mr Lipscomb’s is the second sentence in this paragraph. I have little doubt that the Empire will be able to spin even a total Russian victory to most of their own dumbed down populations. However, the rest of the world has already realise the true nature of the “Wizard of Oz”/”paper tiger” and it’s difficult to over-emphasize the ramifications. It’s already clear Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia have taken note, others will follow soon. As for the Empire, I recall the old Frenhc joke about the English – “there’s fog in the Channel. The Continent is isolated.
“But how will the United States respond to its dawning understanding …”
“Systems dynamics follow their own rules and not groupthink”
“As Putin said a few weeks ago, it was his mistake to think he could trust the West to come to a reasonable agreement and he had no real choice but military defeat of its Ukrainian puppet. “
Translation is never an option, interpretation being the only option, “media” is a bridge of paper, whilst gobbling too many sausages causes more than indigestion as the STASI realised.
I have gotten into the habit of humbly believing that I know too little. This war is taking place on so many battlefields and there are so many things in the background that I do not know. So I try to sort recognizable factors first.
Raw materials and energy sources
North America has its own deposits. Europe does not. The new Eurasian bloc is swimming in it, and West Asia is integrating step by step into this bloc. Southeast Asia has already joined. India is oriented only to what benefits it. So India will continue not to bind itself to a geopolitical loser. Despite its problems with China. I think Russia’s smart diplomacy will also sort out the problems with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, etc. It is only a matter of time.
Which side will the resource-rich continent of Africa take?
Davos, 4th Industry, Artificial Intelligence, Great Reset, Transhumanismus
This awakens in me the association with Tolkin’s “Mordor”. This will only be the dystopian vision of the “West”. But a deindustrialized Europe will have no geopolitical power. Alone and without the inexhaustible power of the petrodollar, the U.S. empire as such will also disappear. Theoretically, North America can reindustrialize and become a powerful economic nation. But the social structures are so extremely degenerated, corrupt, concreted and rotten that I don’t see any competitiveness of “Mordor” against a sane world outside the visions of the WEF. It is so unnatural and inhuman.
I have no doubt that his time is numbered. He is the pillar of world power.
Are the Rothschild’s, Rockefeller’s, Buffet’s & Co. that psychopathic or desperate to use biological or nuclear weapons? How rational can they still think?
Nazi-Ukraine, USNATO, Russia
I never doubted for a day the outcome of the war. But this war is only one facet of many.
Africa is actually not that easy for anyone to take. It has the fastest growing middle class in the world and no one wants to be colonised again. The demand will be for treatment as equals in a multipolar world.
Africa can also like Eurasia, close it’s border and have everything it needs. Including universities, skills and technology.
There is actually little benefit to trade with the West for most African countries, the west makes more than twice from Africa what Africa makes from it. Major markets for African commodities are increasingly in the East.
I share your opinion. I also see that Africa is tending towards BRICS+ and SOC and I also see only advantages for Africa in this respect. However, I also see the same problem as in the Caucasus. The power of national oligarchs, criminals and corrupt. Greed has driven developments for thousands of years. Historically, the outcome of the development is clear to me. Temporarily, however, there may be setbacks.
Here in the UK the Bandera Broadcasting Corporation is still telling us that Ukraine is winning. Even Talk Radio/TV, which took a sceptical stance to the Corona Madness, is on board. The Daily Telegraph – my former rag of choice – is totally unhinged.
I have never seen anything like this in my life, and have followed war propaganda here since The Falklands. From what I can gather, this bizarre media blitz is still being rolled out across the entire “collective” West.
When I talk to family members, neighbours, acquaintances, I soon discover that most people have fallen for it too. I get the feeling they think i’m a cranky conspiracy theorist who’s been mislead on the internet.
Many thanks to folks like Larry (and Ritter, Mercurious, Macgregor etc) for keeping me sane.
Joe O’Brien says
American here. I used to be a bit of an Anglophile prior to this Ukraine conflict but after seeing the UK’s outsized role in over-the-top ludicrous propaganda and instigation of attacks (e.g., Kerch Bridge, etc.) even an English accent sickens me.
I view the truthfulness UK/Western reporting on the Ukraine conflict, Russia, Putin, et al., on par with their reporting on other issues which top their agenda. E.g., men who say they’re women are actually women and if you disagree you’re worse than Hitler and probably paid by Putin to think that way.
I simply cannot fathom that they are so stupid that they believe Ukraine is actually winning or that their lies will not come crushing down. So I have a constant fear that their ludicrous claims are because they’re planning a false flag operation which can be blamed on “Putin being desperate”.
Alex Thrace says
Thats what scares me. They are going need a mighty big distraction when that happens.
Andrew M says
For me, I will just welcome the post-post-Cold War world order in which the West’s influence is diminished and their military alliance cannot go unchecked anymore in the world. It will be a better world.
Question for Larry.
Was the war originally planned to take place during the Hilary Clinton administration, and delayed due to the unexpected Trump presidency?
If so, how has the changed time slot affected the likely outcome?
Alex Thrace says
The Clinton “Foundation” was grifting money from both sides. $150 million for the Uranium One deal, paid speaking engagements for Bill, lots of Ukrainian “philanthropists” pumps tens of millions into their little scam foundation.
I think the Clintons would have loved to have kept that fraud going for much longer.
Past actions are the best way to predict future actions. Two points:
1) The Iranians attacked a US military base three years ago. Despite all Trump’s bluster, the American reaction was…nothing. They lied about there being no injuries.
2) The Afghanistan withdrawal.
It doesn’t appear the USA/NATO has the stomach for a fight with anyone. Sure they’ll trash talk you to death and they love sanctions(after all they’ve used finance to cannibalize every western economy). However I see no indication of a willingness for an actual fight.
Think of our political class as a bunch of bullies. They will back down when anyone stands up to them because they are cowards. If covid mandates have shown them anything, it is that their own citizens are cowards who can always be bullied. Therefore they’re revert back to terrorizing their own citizens after the Ukraine defeat. Plus they’ll be able to blame the failing economy on Russia.
Realize their one strength: 100% control of the western media(which a majority of citizens still trust). Iranian missile attack – pretend it never happened. Afghanistan defeat – pretend it never happened. Ukraine will get the same treatment in the end. That’s the nice thing about control of the media, they can pretend defeats never happen.
The “Hitler in the bunker” analogy gets closer and closer.
Six month is a optimistic point of view.
I liked very much the reference to Will E. Coyote on this website and now the US are acting like this cartoon character , but remember one of the non-written acme-rules : ” the coyote should acknowledge he is above the precipice before falling in it.”
It could take the US much longer than six months… to acknowledge i mean.
I think Lipscomb is a *former* Chair and/or Senior Fellow, not current. He’s not listed on the site (https://www.digitalcenter.org/)
Thomas Lipscomb says
Correct. I founded it. No longer there.
most psychopaths tend to eventually self-destruct.
We are at that stage
“CIA Director William Burns’ cable in 2008, on Ukraine and Russia”
Nah just buy a used guillotine off Ebay.
The year 1793 proved these apparels can sustain heavy use for a long time (unlike the M777? just kidding).
A simple bucket of water between “clients” will suffice.
“Gallows built of a sturdy material designed for heavy use”
Nah just buy a used guillotine off Ebay.
The year 1793 proved these apparels can sustain heavy use for a long time (unlike the M777? just kidding).
A simple bucket of water between “clients” will suffice.
“There is no doubt now that Russia will defeat Ukraine and impose its terms.”
Could not devise a better opening sentence. Eleven succinct paragraphs. Compare with WaPOs long screed the same day “Putin, unaccustomed to losing, is increasingly isolated as war falters”. Seventy paragraphs of lies and denial.
“the United States current leadership is a bunch of total idiots”
Absolutely amazingly so. An understatement in fact. Real idiots accidentally succeed from time to time. These clowns are so consistently off that it beggars believability. The intentional part aside, it is simply stunning that they can consistently be so universally wrong.
The competence and professionalism of the Russians are a stark contrast to the amateur blundering that has characterized the response. The coyote quietly stalks and the chickens run here and there blindly squawking. Somebody’s gonna get ate.
The west is ruled by mad children over an infantilized population.
just saying says
In other news, NATO-Ukrainian air defences switched to WWII tactics.
Brad Patton says
Petraeus is like one of those playboy characters in a nineteenth century novel who marry up the social ladder. You forgot to mention his wife could stop a freight train so he had few competitors. I knew her family the Knowltons — pretentious is too tame a word. The parents had full length oil portraits of themselves hanging in their living room.
Patraeus also had a dalliance with his biographer and supplied her with classified lists of agents and meetings while director of the CIA. I wonder if the FBI raided their love nests looking for classified documents. I think their love nest was underneath his desk so maybe not. They traded steamy emails the way teenagers do by opening a third account and leaving the messages in the draft folder — so no actual messages were sent.
martin mkultra7 says
hey Brad,did her parents remove all the clocks from the house because they kept stopping?
This is just something I remembered recently, from 2016. Is it a “CIA Parthian pinprick”?
Putin’s favorite chauffeur:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-driver-chauffeur-moscow-car-crash-killed-kremlin-bmw-mercedes-a7230211.html
(Repeating the comment I just left on Andrei’s page:)
It seems to me that people in this country are “over-educated” (and mis-educated) and that over-education blinds them to common sense answers that are right in front of them.
I run a small hobby page for retail aficionados (under 7,000 members). I was bitching about some prosciutto I bought at the store … $4.69 for a single package of, get this, FIVE THIN SLICES! I got all kinds of crap for blaming government for doing stupid things like writing checks out to Ukraine as part of the reason prices are so high. I used the example of burger chains selling 15 cent burgers in the 1960’s now being about $2.50 (works out to about 5.25% inflation.)
It’s pretty obvious to me that the more you have of something, the lower the value is. So if you print more money, you erode its value. (To what degree is debatable.) The overeducated in this country believe every stupid theory they learn in school but ignore the common sense right in front of them. Common sense also says you can’t have something for nothing. You just can’t print money and have it retain value just because you say so.
That’s the main problem with out country today. People over-educated, mis-educated and completely lack common sense.
That’s why 30 years after communism fell, these clowns think they can bully Russia into submission and they don’t understand that rubles translated to dollars in GDP doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story.
(I see I also bitched about the prosciutto bill here earlier in the thread. LOL)
Alex Thrace says
Eggs, small ones by our metric, €3.79 for a half dozen
Alex Thrace says
I just returned from Rome. 100grams of prosciutto at a local grocery outlet (Coop) was €8
Vallhall Rising says
Indeed the next 6 months will be “hair-raising”. For my part there is one truism that will drive the OPTEMPO here it is:
– Russia cannot lose its UKR Special Military Operation and US-NATO cannot let Russia succeed
As for a major winter offensive…I am not convinced that Russia needs to launch one and why would they launch an offensive especially when US-NATO planners have been anticipating a winter offensive for several months now?
Russia plays chess…the US plays checkers.
Le Pat 1837 says
Roshel owner is an ukrainian. So under the blessing of Trudeau – the owner of a military private company Roshel – send 300 blinded vehicle to ukraine.
Concerning the winter offensive, the ground hasn’t really frozen yet. But for the coming week-end there are forecasts going down to -18 C (0 F). So things may start to heat up, er.. cool down.
“The World Economic Forum is now about as relevant as the Holy Roman Empire.”
Mr. Lipscomb, you may want to do some research into that statement. Start here:
While Danny Boy might go a little over the top with some of his wilder accusations, those people – and their historical connections – are very real and they wield a great deal of power that they have been very successful at hiding for a very, very long time.
Look at the way the USA conducts its foreign policy these days. Who do the threats, intimidation and protection rackets they employ remind you of?
“Who do the threats, intimidation and protection rackets they employ remind you of?”
Joe Friday says
The Putin rope-a-dope.
Dance like a Baryshnikov and sting like a MiG.
I was really surprised Russians allowed themselves to be set up in a HIMARS missile attack when a building with Russian soldiers in it who were celebrating New Year was hit. Apparently, 63 Russian soldiers were killed. What a colossal waste of combat experienced soldiers. Six HIMARS missiles hit the building. Likely firing coordinates provided to the Ukrainians by the US (NATO).
It was a college building in the village of Makeyevka located on the north-western outskirts of Donetsk. What the hell were they thinking?
We think that American missiles killed Russian soldiers, damn it.
The successful HIMARS attack apparently was facilitated in the same manner as the destruction of the Reddit Battalion. Phone discipline was not enforced and the enemy zeroed in on the signals. It has been said too that there was ammo in the basement.
Telephone discipline has nothing to do with it. There are local gunners. There is a growing suspicion that some Donetsk war correspondents are connected with the Ukrainian security service. It is not in vain that they say that 3 Ukrainians = a partisan detachment with a traitor.
This exactly is the malignancy of a fratricidal war engineered by Brzezinski and NATO and the US bipartisan Deep state.
No matter how high the precautions & penalties, it can’t be helped that a vast number of traitors do operate on both sides in the situation.
Well, locals have been stating that the entire town knew the soldiers were staying there. So if they knew then any spies/traitors knew too.
Rgading Matveevka, Prigozhin quoted Russian equivalent of American ” Loose Lips Sink Ships.”
6 HIMARS were fired, 2 hit this building. Cellphones and Happy NY calls by soldiers were mentioned in Russian media.
Alex Thrace says
The Russians probably won’t be in a mood to laugh this off.
Casual Observer says
(courtesy of moonofalabama) https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/are-there-any-us-red-lines.html#more
In today’s New York Times some former British diplomat, now working for a pro-war think tank, is arguing for the delivery of longer range weapons to Ukraine.
Concerns about Russia’s “red lines” are driven above all by the fear that Russia might resort to nuclear escalation. The West should avert this by deterring Russia rather than by restraining itself — or pressuring Ukraine to do so — for fear of “provoking” Russia. It can do so by communicating the certainty of severe consequences should Russia use nuclear weapons.
I believe it’s already done that a dozen times, as has the converse.
America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West.
Uh, not exactly. JFK agreed to remove (and actually did remove) nukes from Turkey (the core reason for the Cuban nuke deployment) in return for nukes removed from Cuba. It was a win/win via tense diplomacy, unheard of these days.
I’m afraid the totally perverse nature of the thought processes that are fueling western oneupmanship in this war is going to finally end in a nuclear holocaust. Such a fate for civilization (as it is) ended by troglodytic intellects. Self-deluding morons, in short.
God (the Gods) will either laugh or cry at our creation, and for us it matters not. BTW: ‘British diplomat’ is now a proven oxymoron.
Perverse thought processes, indeed.
Most of us who visit sites like this one know that the West has been a cancer upon the Earth for centuries. We know also that its dominant people are like demons. (Maybe we ought to say that a demon is any primate, such as Joe Biden and Ben Netanyahoo, who has extremely disordered neurons in its head.) The West is not the only cancer on the Earth, for sure, but its narcissism is so extreme, its destructiveness so widespread, and its abilities so great that the most reasonable solution to the problem of its aggressive existence is systematic extirpation.
So, all of the following institutions and organizations must be taken over or destroyed, and their leaders, eliminated:
-the Latin Ecclesia, with all of its parishes, quasiparishes, and personal churches
-the shamanate of the Latin Ecclesia
-protestant assemblies, schools, and ministries of gasbags
-synogogues, rabbinical organizations, talmidist publishers, etc.
-incorporation with limited liablity
-stock exchanges (LSE, NYSE, DBAG,…)
-the IBoT, the IBEW, and other collaborationist labor unions
-the beverage ethanol industry, which is sponsored and protected by states which extract profits from it
-the marijuana industry, also state sponsored and protected in many jurisdictions
-the tobacco industry
-professional circusball and ciruspuck teams
-anything called “our democracy” by its ringleaders
-private organizations of democrats, Marxists, conservatives, and “libertarians”
-combinations of whiggernazis, Judeonazis, Blacknazis, and so on
-universities, colleges, state schools, secondary schools, etc. which teach for the perpetuation of the other organizations and institutions mentioned here
-the K-12 system
-the Parliament of the UK
-the bar associations of England, Wales, Scotland, and NI
-the Royals, the peerage, and baronetry of the UK
-the City of London (the square mile, so called)
-the Congress of the USA (CotUS)
-the presidency of the USA (PotUS)
-the bar associations of the USA and Canada
-the Labour Party, the Conservative and Union Party, the Liberal Party of Canada, the bipartisan party of the USA, etc.
-the UN, the WEF, and so on
-the Ford Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Open Society Foundations, etc.
-private organizations such as country clubs and urban social clubs where the ruling class, wannabe plutocrats, and the bourgeoisie gather
-dominant families, i.e. those families responsible for imposing and perpetuating the above institutions and organizations
This is just a partial list, of course, and there ought to be a preference always to stop the West’s institutions, not for internal subversion to take over and wear old institutions like a skin suit. Also, a new religion is needed to harmonize* a few million people for the great work of suppressing and removing Western civ and copycat organizations (e.g. the BSE, SEHK, and the CP of 中国.) If ever we become serious about preventing the holocaust** you’ve warned about, we’ll get to work on a plan for this project. A nice irony here will be that Western civ has provided us with various systems of project managment, i.e. systems for planning, organizing, and leading teams dedicated to the completion of projects.
And yes, the nations of the West will experience epic population crashes. Copycats will be dragged down with them.
* The Creator hypothesis lacks merit. Willpower is always subordinate to unwilled law(s) of existence, some of which can be known to humans and described by humans. The concept of a three story (or three tiered) cosmos is a refuted myth. Philosophical presentism (or cosmological presentism) is false. N.b. that these are statements about existence. Religion is social activity which must be distinguished from whatever ontology is affirmed or denied by the members of a religious organization. Religion is basically just politics by another name.
** Western civ is responsible also for the great, humanist biocide of the past few centuries, during which time many species have become extinct or nearly so. Some of the extinction has resulted from hunting and habitat destruction. It’s also true that the West and copycats have spread various poisons and deadly hazards such as lead, DDT, radioactive dust, and plastics over large areas, throughout the waters, and throughout the air. It doesn’t matter now that the West has established many national parks in its own territories. Those postage stamps may soothe our consciences and are undoubtedly beautiful, but they only treat symptoms of a curable cancer—which not even a nuclear holocaust will eliminate.
Related to the WEF’s unipolarist agenda:
On October 23, 2022, there was “a pandemic tabletop exercise at the Grand Challenges Annual Meeting in Brussels, Belgium”. Organizers called it Catastrophic Contagion, and among the attendees were “10 current and former Health Ministers and senior public health officials from Senegal, Rwanda, Nigeria, Angola, Liberia, Singapore, India, [and] Germany”. Bill Gates, too, was there. The organizing partners of the event were the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the WHO, and the B&MGF.
Questions included this: “What are the most important aspects of A NEW PANDEMIC CORPS?”
It’s not clear from the page what this pandemic corps in the exercise was supposed to be. On another page, the Center for Health Security suggested that the PP of our world will be “an international network of national public health leaders”. Probably it will be also a private army of browbeaters, snitches, lawfare lawyers, and whatnot.
Now, I remember something about African countries blocking the proposed pandemic treaty last year, in May or June, I think. Don’t remember which countries they are, and it’s possible that they demurred to learn what BAFO they’ll receive in exchange for submission. Still, it’s not difficult to understand why some unipolarists would be upset enough about the treaty blockers to hold a simulated action role playing exercise to prepare for another assault on Africa.
Sierra Madre Trails says
While Russia keeps the iron burning on the Ukrainians, the West is hesitant to intervene directly. It is not Russia that hesitates but the West that does not know what to do to end the bear forever.
I guess not only going to ” live in interesting times” but all hair raised as well for the next 6 months.
2023 will definitely come with a bang.
The new crazy world is capable of doing anything.
Mr. Lipscomb wrote a great article here, detailing how utterly full of shit the asshole neocons who run the Biden admin’s foreign policy are: total fucking assholes like Lindsey Graham….Victoria Nuland…jewboy Antony Blinken… Jackass Sullivan….Biden…Clintons….the shit list as you know is VERY LONG. They know jack shit about war and diplomacy as laid out here; they only know their delusions of grandeur as they stupidly fantasize about world hegemony. Lipscomb should replace ‘CIA’ Larry, who has his nose deeply wedged up Ron DeSantis’ anus, and writes dull repetitive articles ad nauseam. DeSantis’, the GITMO ensure nasal feeding asshole is no different from the neocons for that matter.
Just to throw in some alternative viewpoint, Ukraine is currently engaging in an elaborate deception operation, just pretending that it’s doing everything it can to hold Bakhmut. Yet, the stated figure of 60,000 troops defending the place is not believable. Bakhmut the city had a civilian population of only 70,000 before the SMO began. Ukraine is only distracting the Russians while, at the same time, it’s preparing a southern offensive towards the sea of Azov. Even if Bakhmut has to be vacated at some point, and with it Donbass, that will only be temporary, as trading Donbass for cutting the land bridge to Crimea will still win Ukraine the war. Winning means that Ukraine will take back Crimea and eventually also Donbass unless Russia goes nuclear. That will not happen because the West will threaten Russia with destroying its fleet, which can easily be done from the air.
Ghost Ship says
“Ukraine is only distracting the Russians while, at the same time, it’s preparing a southern offensive towards the sea of Azov.”
With what? Ukraine is almost completely out of tanks and other heavy weapons, short of trained men and the Russians have reinforced their forces and are building massive defences along the line of advance for such a operation. Ukraine almost certainly doesn’t stand a chance of cutting the land bridge to Crimea.
Alex Z Berkovich says
“American military planning was once world class. But who would plan a proxy war against Russia, one of the acknowledged masters of artillery with far better air defense technology than any in the West, and then equip our puppet Ukraine with inferior weapons and only enough ammunition to last six months? ”
But this is because they planned to collapse the Russian economy under unprecedented sanctions. They probably planned Ukrainians to fight for 3 – 4 months after which Russians would beg for peace… They basically miscalculated two things :
1) Strength of the Russian economy
2) the willingness of the rest of the World to go with the United States. They forgot that US economy barely stands at 16% of the world’s GDB – so they can no longer bribe and bully everyone
Ghost Ship says
Can’t help but think the first Cold War ended successfully for the Soviets when the CPC defeated the nationalists in the Chinese Civil War during 1947. The foundation for this was the brief Soviet-Japanese war when the Soviet Union liberated parts of Mongolia, Manchuria, northern Korea and other bits such as South Sakhalin and some of the Kuril Islands in the Manchurian Strategic Offensive Operation.
Looking back, occupying Finland would seem to have been a more important given the access it allowed to the Baltic Sea but Stalin just persuaded Finland to evict their Nazi German allies from Northern Scandinavia without taking anymore territory from Finland. It looked like Stalin had a bigger fish to fry and I’d suggest that was the CPC winning the Chinese Civil War. The Soviet Union handing most of Manchuria to China made that more likely, almost a certainty so when Washington “lost” China it was a victory for Moscow over Washington.