Unless you are a student of the history of World War II, you probably do not appreciate the role that DECEPTION operations played in pinning down German forces and the relevance of such operations to what is going on in Ukraine.
Allied commanders trying to figure out how to invade France with the greatest chance of success relied on two major deception operations–Bodyguard and Fortitude. Bodyguard came into existence in early 1943 after Eisenhower and the Brits agreed that the invasion of Europe would happen in northern France. Bodyguard was:
designed to make the Germans believe the invasion might come in Greece, on the Adriatic coast of Yugoslavia, in the south of France, on the Biscay Bay coast of France, through the Low Countries, or via Norway and Denmark.
Accordingly, with British intel in the lead, intel was fed to the Germans that made them believe the allies were planning attacks in those regions. In response, the Germans reinforced their garrisons in those regions. One of those troop re-deployments moved German soldiers from the Russian front, which provided some tangible relief to the Soviet forces who were fighting the bulk of the German Army. The other key effect was that it froze the German forces in a location far away from the true target–northern France.
As 1943 came to an end and the build up of U.S., Canadian and British forces in the United Kingdom became obvious, the Brits came up with operation FORTITUDE.
Allied intelligence services came in, principally the British. They developed a plan called Fortitude by which; they would create two phantom army commands—one in Scotland to threaten an invasion of Norway, and the other in East Anglia and southeast England to threaten the Pas de Calais. The latter operation, known as Quicksilver, would establish an imaginary army group designated the First US Army Group (FUSAG). The commander of this ghost army had to be a general renowned enough to make the operation seem thoroughly credible to the Germans—a real blood and guts general. Lieutenant General George S. Patton
Quicksilver was accomplished with inflatable tanks and artillery pieces and a flood of military communications going back and forth between non-existent army units. With the help of a double agent with the code name GARBO:
Garbo, a Catalan named Juan Pujol, had begun his spying career as an amateur, deceiving the Germans with false intelligence he cooked up himself. The British found out about him and brought him from Spain to England, where he went to work for the Double Cross Committee. Garbo gave the Germans the impression that he had gotten a job high up in the British government and was the spymaster of a network of 14 agents placed throughout the Allied high command and British government. He sent frequent and detailed reports on the growth and intentions of FUSAG. Those reports fooled the highest echelons of command—up to and including Hitler.
Okay. So what does this have to do with the Russian military operation in Ukraine? The United States and NATO intelligence services have been quite confused about the specific intentions of Russia’s military plan and have failed to accurately predict Russia’s moves. Early on, as Russian forces were approaching Kiev from the north, government sources were telling the media that Russia appeared intent on capturing Kiev. A significant portion of Ukrainian military forces deployed in the outlying suburbs prepared to battle the Russians to the death. And Russia made steady progress moving into positions to the east and west of Kiev.
Yes, the Russians suffered losses but we saw some very odd things. Remember the 40 mile column of Russian tanks and mobile artillery that sat in place for several days to the north of Kiev. The Ukrainians failed to attack that fat target because the Russians had castrated Ukrainian air power and artillery. And then, without suffering a major defeat on the battlefield around Kiev, the Russians started withdrawing.
In the lead up to this withdrawal, U.S. and NATO military commanders puzzled over why Russia only deployed a small portion of the force it had positioned on its western border. In addition, Russia held back its most sophisticated tanks and mobile artillery. Why?
Well, looks like Russia was feeding the western allies a big load of bullshit. Remember the breathless media reports that Putin was being deceived by his inner circle?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misled by advisers and doesn’t know how badly his own war is going, a US defense official said on Wednesday.
The struggling strongman is being lied to by his inner circle about everything from military losses to the economy, an unnamed US official said, citing recently declassified intelligence.
US intelligence suggests that Putin was unaware of the extent to which his army was relying on — and losing — conscripted soldiers, the official told The Associated Press. The Russian leader has also been given an unrealistically rosy assessment of Russian markets as his advisers downplay the effect of Western sanctions on their economy.
That tidbit of “intel” collected in Russia somehow apparently convinced senior American and NATO military leaders that Putin was on the ropes and was painted into a corner. Yet what happened? Russia moved into Mariupol and began the destruction of Ukraine’s southern army acting on orders to hold that port city at any price. Seven weeks later that Ukrainian force is eviscerated.
The Russian re-deployment to the Donbas went off without a major hitch. We have seen zero video evidence of Ukrainian forces attacking and destroying columns of Russian tanks, mobile artillery and trucks pouring into the region. But we are now seeing evidence of Ukrainian entrenched positions in the Donbas suffering relentless bombardments from the ground and the air.
While Russia has been moving its forces around various parts of Ukraine without much opposition, it has enjoyed supremacy in the air. It has continued to hit and destory,key Ukrainian military facilities, weapons storage depots and fuel storage sites with missiles, both sea launched and air launched.
On the economic front, the Russian ruble has stabilized and has not been damaged by western sanctions. It is as strong today as it was prior to the invasion. It is the west that is scrambling to figure out how to replace key Russian exports such as fertilizer, oil, natural gas, nickel and palladium.
In light of the events that have transpired in Ukraine since that “intel” was leaked to the western media about alleged chaos in Putin’s inner circle, it may be time to consider that Russia has pulled off a minor variation of Operation Quicksilver. As Russian forces withdrew from Kiev the Ukrainian commanders, in tandem with their NATO advisors, did not launch an offensive against the “retreating” Russians nor did they start moving large numbers of their soldiers to the east to bolster the defenses of the Ukrainian army dug in throughout the western edge of the Donbas. Why? This will be grist for future theses of War College students on the effectiveness of deception in war.
Explains a lot and makes perfect sense.
Russia plays chess, Nato plays tiddly-winks.
In Russia the term is “Maskirovka” and the Russians are past masters of the art – just ask the German Army of 1944: Operation Bagration, the Lvov–Sandomierz Operation, the Invasion of Romania. The first cleared Belorussia of the German Army Group Centre and the other two kicked the Germans right out of the Ukraine, and Romania out of the war to become a Russian Ally. The Germans knew that an operation was coming but where? The Russians convinced the Germans that the attack would be in the Ukraine which they prepared for. They then hit them (with up to 2 million men, 5,000 (approx) tanks and Assault Guns, and about 6,00 aircraft). When the Germans were forced to bring their mobile reserves in from the Ukraine to fill the gaps created. Wham the Russians hit them in the Ukraine. Both these operations saw the Germans thrown back on the Vistula River in Poland. In the process the Germans lost an entire Army (9th Army), another (3rd) severely mauled. In total one Army HQ, eleven Corps HQs were captured (11 Generals KIA, 22 Captured), 30 Divisions destroyed (annihilated) and a further 20 severely mauled. In addition to the three mentioned the Russians also conducted a further two major operations. One to clear the Baltics of the Germans and the second to knock the Finns out of the war. Both successful.
I think you are spot on. What shocks me most is how our so called leaders seemingly have zero reflection on how they may be wrong but just plough on regardless with the same failed policies of more boomerang sanctions, obsolete arms supply, and shipments that will either get destroyed, eventually equip the DPR / LPR or be sold to terrorists. They either believe their own BS or just lack imagination and courage to change tack. Bit like the Covid lock down craze of the last couple of years.
The Daily Telegraph even has an “analysis” piece today opining that this war may be the equivalent of the 1905 Russo Japanese War for Putin in terms of national humiliation. I guess the guy writing it has been reading some history recently and wants to lecture us on what he has learned. It is behind a pay wall so cannot read much of it and I canceled my subscription already: no point in paying for government propaganda in my taxes and also voluntarily too. Occasionally worth scanning their email newsletter for free to get a sense of their latest nonsense for laughs.
Right now, the West does seem very similar to Hitler in 1945 arguing that will power could defeat the Red Army as they closed in on Berlin. It is not a good look.
Haha. It’s been archived so no need to pay:
https://archive.ph/aUcLY
Have at it.
Thanks.
I wonder how much Jeremy Black was paid to write that, and by whom. The fixation on the sinking of the Moskva and the constant commentary about Ukrainians in tractors towing Russian tanks seems to be a total counter factual to the reality of what is going on.
The author is actually quite a respected military historian so he ought to know better.
You’re welcome. Always try archive.is – they are a better resource than that stupid Wayback machine, which is clunky (and which excludes “certain” info now). If you can’t find it on archive.is, then try Wayback.
Look at it this way: if the “West” is at war with Russia, all information is propaganda. I know it’s hard for us to think that way, but it’s so. The writer may even realize that he’s writing bunkum, but it’s all for the war effort, y’know?
Anyway, I don’t care. What’s important is to be aware that very little which appears in our MSM is reliable. I say “very little” because there are a few nuggets here & there.
I agree. Our so called leaders do seem to have decided on war. Their only debating point is how to wage it. A plague on all their houses. It is a totally misguided policy.
Thank You!
I really doubt that the US is unaware of what a hell hole is being created in Ukraine today, just as they knew what the same Biden/Obama/Nuland/Clinton team were doing in 2011-14 in Syria and Libya.
I think mayhem and a mass of weapons circulating forever has always been the goal in all 3 countries. The hate between groups in Ukraine has been generated just as it was done in Syria for the same motive – making co-operation with Iran/Russia impossible. Arguably the failure in Iraq can be seen as a success on this basis too.
The 2014 coup/capture of the government in Ukraine was always more than the US hoped for. Had they wanted democracy in Ukraine they would not have been working closely training Azov to attack civilians in Donbas for 8 years.
Telegraph paywall – go to page and a quick F5 (refresh), Control-a (select all) and control-c (copy) will allow you to paste the story into say, word. You need to be very quick or have a slow pc.
Good morning Larry. Thank you for your invaluable, clear, concise description of the battle field even a novice can understand the recent developments. Where as the pundits on the MSM keep feeding the false hope and quick victory over bad very bad Rooskies to the gullible populace you bring the truth to those who seek it. What really boggles my mind is in spite of the fact the Russia collusion of Trump, Carona virus mandates and subsequent destruction of our economy, and the various Woke agendas as BLM, Transgender etc all proven to be utterly wrong or even suicidal the unwashed masses fall for the next big thing which is how Russia is loosing the war in spite of the fact Maripol fell to the Bid Bad Wolf. Honestly some times I wonder about my own sanity if I am being misled since so many MSM pundits keep telling me it is day light in the middle of the night. Sir I thank you again for your wisdom and grasp of the reality.
The amazing thing is that from actually listening to what Russia has been saying for the last ten years, one could get a pretty good estimation of what has and will transpire.
And in that regards, at some point NATO assets in Poland will be hit.
Fortunately, once the west starts sending unicorns and Godzilla (great quote from your interview), the battle is sure to turn!
Thanks. I was trying to come up with something that would communicate the nonsense of the gesture.
I agree Russia did not intend to attack Kyiv at outset.
But I think the reason they faked the attack was to scare Zelensky into abdication and leaving Ukrainie. Then replacing him with pro Russian opposition leader Medvecheck (spelling may be wrong).
When they realised Zelensky wasn’t going to run that potential quick solution disappeared. Meaning, there was no point being there so into plan B.
I agree a second purpose was to likely confuse and split Ukranian forces. But I think the Kyiv part of the mission was to scare Zelensky and co into leaving.
On the economic front. It is scary. No one knows what will happen. It’s all best guesses between bad, manageable and disaster.
Europe is possibly going to get crushed as there ae not enough tankers to get it LNG gas in the world. So for at least a few years they need Russia.
Ukrainie is also obviously not planting while war is on. This means a huge loss in wheat production and increase in daily bread prices.
Calibre of Western leaders is so shockingly poor. I can’t believe Big Guy Biden, Buffoon Boris and ego maniac Macron are leading. Who the hell would follow these clowns? I sure as hell wouldn’t.
I also fell for the 40 mile long convoy of Russians heading to Kyiv. I was wondering why the UAF wasn’t using Turkish Byaktars and lighting up the highway into Kyiv.
Then I thought that if UAF was not doing this then perthaps I was part of the largest psyops that ever existed as nothing to me made any sense.
In hindsight, it completely makes sense now.
Allowing the UAF to hunker down in Kyiv, expecting a major offensive by Russia to storm the capital, therefore, made possible an Eastern Ukraine/Danbass offensive to take roots and meticulously demilitarize the entire region. With the bulk of UAF solidified in Kyiv it prevented reinforcements to plough into Donbas region.
Im assuming that ‘WALI” and other legionnaires that came in to help Ukraine sat patiently wondering where the hell the Russian offensive was. Instead they got tomahawks, Iskanders and Avangards hitting strategic points of interest from the comfort of your balcony.
great post, by the way!