(This photo is a before and after picture of Russia’s attack on the UAF ammunition depot near Zhytomyr on May 28, 2023.)
With all the loose talk from Ukraine and the West about the upcoming (or underway) counter offensive, it is natural for some observers to conclude that Russia is sitting back waiting to see what unfolds. That is wrong.
Before delving into the details of what Russia is doing, I want to highlight the latest delusional pronouncement by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, who reports he has been briefed on Ukraine’s looming operation. Graham says:
“The Russians are ‘in for a rude awakening’ when the Ukrainian counter-offensive begins. In the coming days, you will see a rather impressive show of force by the Ukrainians,” he said.
Not sure what constitutes an “impressive show of force” but Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian civilian targets and continues to try to send special forces teams on raids into Russian territory. Ukraine, with encouragement from its Western backers , is trying to carry out a terrorist campaign in the vain hope that it will incite panic among the Russian populace and stir unrest among the Russia leadership. The failed drone attack on Moscow this week is one manifestation of this “strategy”. Here are some of the latest Ukrainian efforts:
In the area of the Berkhovsky reservoir, the enemy attempted to storm the landing according to his favorite scheme: a jump of an armored group with infantry and the fastest approach to our positions. However, the landing infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine quickly came under machine-gun and artillery fire from our marines, and one of the YPR-765s was hit by an ATGM shot. As a result, the enemy could not withstand the resistance and hastily retreated.
Over the past two weeks, the intensity of the Belgorod region border territories shelling has significantly increased. Yesterday the region bypassed the #Donetsk agglomeration in terms of the number of incoming AFU ammunition. At the same time, explosions continue to rattle in several districts of the #Belgorod region today. Seven civilians have been injured and one person has died alone in the last two days.
Three sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been disabled close to Timkovka, Sinkovka, and Kotlyarovka. Up to 70 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured vehicles, and four pick-up trucks were neutralised. (They were reportedly headed to the Russian border with Ukraine).
There is a stark difference between the Ukrainian and Russian attacks. Ukraine is continuing its tradition of shelling civilian targets while Russia is focused on taking out Ukrainian military personnel, installations and infrastructure.
Russia is continuing its shellacking of Ukrainian postions:
- 10 explosions reported in Kiev tonight so far
- Ukraine mass media reports of explosions in Kherson
- Ukraine mass media reports of explosions in the Kharkov region
- Reports of explosions in Sumy region.
- Extensive airstrikes are reported upon Ukrainian positions in Zaporozhye Oblasts, specifically rear echelon positions on artillery firing points and logistics depots by the Russian Aerospace Forces. These air strikes use guided bombs and disrupt UKR preparations for their offensive.
It appears that one of Russia’s objectives is to force Ukraine to fire expensive air defense assets (a rapidly diminishing amount) against low cost drones. This is degrading Ukraine’s ability to protect Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) and enhances Russia’s capability to use fixed wing aircraft on strike deeper inside Ukrainian territory.
The Wagner Group is no longer the number one story. I continue to believe that the media focus on Wagner was part of a Russian information operation to distract attention from the activities of Russia’s main military forces. It looks like Russia is shifting the Wagner information operation back to the Chechens, who were the featured force in the capture of Mariupol in May 2022. The Akhmat battalion i s back in the news and Yevgeny Prigozhin, a GRU mouthpiece, is touting their prowess.
“Akhmat” will deal with certain areas. They don’t have the task of liberating the entire DPR. They will deal with certain areas in which they will operate,” said the head of the PMC “Wagner”.
In short, Russia is pressing Ukraine along the front lines and hitting military targets in Western Ukraine, near the Polish border, and Ukraine has no answer. Just because the Western media is avoiding reporting on Russian activities that does not mean Russia is asleep at the wheel. At a minimum Russia is making sure that the political and military officials in Kiev and Lviv are not getting a good night’s sleep.
Saw two Telegram videos yesterday of failed Patriot missiles falling on Kiev. The Patriots are a greater danger to the civilian population than any Russian drone or rocket.
The joke in Kiev is that it is a “pat riot”😂😂😂
I saw that posted on Twitter. Just horrific for the people in cars. I hope they weren’t injured.
Nothing a little duct tape won’t fix. $500 a roll with the good friend discount.
D-Tape might be in short supply. Binders and all that.
Was that one that the Daily Mail said was a Russian missile? It looked rather thin for an attack missile or warhead, and more like an interceptor.
The one that landed on the street was the rear part of a Patriot that presumably disintegrated in flight. The one that hit the river was a complete missile.
Now the Iron Dome can be useful, in cleaning-up / destroying falling debris, perhaps making fragments smaller and less harmful. BTW, there was a video I saw on a Telegram channel that showed Russian attack on Kiev SBU offices a couple of days back. What the video actually captured was a PAC-3 missile, coming straight down in ONE piece and booster section was quite recognisable from its fins. It landed in the river, fortunately.
I think you have to consider the possibility that Russia has broken the Ukrainian forces and that they are simiply incapable of responding. The bombing is simply targeting potential NATO forward operating areas in Ukraine.
Not to take away from Your analysis(these occurances are confirmed) Mr J. I have something to add:
https://rutube.ru/video/f8c15d8835f54a6e348134f0db4ac202/
The above link. These are my fav. people in the know. One is a female Ru. activist, from and before the days of Maydan, involved with Donbass charities. The bearded doode is a fighter/elctronic-drone-comms/net specialist, repairman, a goto man for any fighter with difficulties in those fields. Based in Lugansk. The bold effer is an x-surgeon, that didn`t get his ukranian chops re-certified after getting prisoner xchanged after spending 4 years in ukro-jail for terroristic activities. As such he is involved with plugging the logitics holes of the Ru Army – he has organized the National-Net, a national movement to create and distribute camo-nets for the needs of the troop(amongst a shitload of other goods, drones, comms). Also a front line fighter. Involved with the Club of Pissed off Patriots.
From them, I get a detailed up-to-the-minute account of what is going on in the immediate frontline. With all the minutiae, I can handle.
I wish, you could organize some sort of an effort to try and translate it, I offer my services, but my Ru. is limited. I get about 80-90% of what they are discussing, trust me, You will learn more from these 3, than every other source put together.
These are the people, that are gonna win the war, along with the RuArmy – DESPITE Moscow. Listen to it, You will understand. If I can help, let me know.
Dear, TS! These people you are advertising are actually working for the CIPS of Ukraine. What they say is complete nonsense. And they do it to deceive ordinary Russian people. To extort money from them, under the pretext of humanitarian aid to Russian soldiers, as well as in order to set them up against the Russian Ministry of Defense. Stop watching them. Don’t believe them. I am telling you, as a citizen of Russia, who has many friends now at war and from time to time information comes from them that refutes the statements of Citizen Montyan.
I follow Andrei’s recommendation, in addition to Trusting God, I Trust briefings from MoD.
I understand, so do some Americans of their own DOD…
You can take a horse to water…
Trust the plan. 5D, Q…
Mr Johnson – do Yourself a favour: Sit down with a Russian speaker and listen to the above. You are in the intelligence biz. after all yes?
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia
Scroll back in that channel and note the amount of hardware delivered to the frontline meticulously documented by these people. This doode only deals with the needs of the troop. The needs of civilians in the Donbass are distributed by that woman in the above vlog.
I absolutely agree. I was unpleasantly surprised to see who Ts was referring to. These people do not even hide their goals: to destroy the unity of Russian society from within and sow distrust of the authorities. They hate Putin, insult Russians who support the leadership, swear dirty. It is especially unpleasant that Montyan is given the floor in the leading Russian media and on the platforms of popular opinion leaders. This war quickly shows who is who. Unfortunately, Russian journalism differs little from Western journalism, it was brought up according to the same patterns.
I really wonder what the Congressional Ethics Committee is doing when a Senator is making dangerous statements risking to bring the war to our shores. Ditto Nuland. Lavrov is not Medvedev but he was clear that the USA won’t be able to hide behind the two oceans and profit like from WWI and WWII with the rest of the world was taking the bloody bath. I don’t think he’s bluffing.
Ha, the Yanks have an ‘Ethics Committee’?!
That’s like a wannabe children’s charity calling itself the Jeffrey Epstein Foundation…
Time for a bit of comic relief. Notice how a Russian audience takes everything in stride, while displaying an acute awareness of world political dynamics, all in the form of a comedy sketch. They readily break out in laughter over quips about the US, EU, Russia itself, China, Turkey and the Global South.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1663388586325037056
Now just imagine a typical US audience in the same shoes. They’d be sitting there somber, frowning and without a clue to what the punchlines mean. Get your audience to do that and you know they’ve been thoroughly ‘groomed’ to your agenda.
Linda Graham is an insider. As long as he keeps up the neocon schtick, those pictures of him with either a dead boy or a live boy will never come out.
The entire USA federal body politic is corrupt, with non-corrupt people like Ron Paul, Rand Paul,and maybe Jim Jordan being the exception, not the rule. I have a theory that new politicians are spied upon by the Deep State and exposed to honeytraps and other kinds of traps in order to get dirt on them and keep them in line. And that this has been going on for a very long time. You can tell by the way they act. Non-Reverend Al Sharpton, closet homosexual Linda Graham, creepy Jeff Sessions, little Adam Schitt, etc. There’s enough dirt on each of these dirt bags to put them away for life, yet Julian Assange and Ross Ulbricht rot in prison and Snowden will never be able to return to his homeland.
This is why I say, let it fail.
Don’t forget “gender neutral” Doris Johnson!
Congressional Ethics Committee is working on more pressing matters, like: “Is it unethical for biological male, declaring as gender neutral, to pee standing up in female toilet?”
So Lindy went to Kiev and got an exclusive taste of Voldemort Kokainsky’s piano antics. Lindy said s/he was more than satisfied at the treat s/he received and was looking forward to the replay. “Play it again Ze” or is it “Lay it on me again Ze”
Was the Pope once Polish?
Damn right Russia is preempting a Ukrainian offensive and doing a damn good job of it.
Latest from Ukraine is they’ll defer an offensive until their latest F-16 wunderwaffe arrive and hope to maintain a ‘defensive’ advantage until then and keep the Russians from reaching the Dnieper and/or Odessa and Kharkov. Then, who knows what the western numbnutted forces will coach them into, either rebuilding a fifth army through the summer, fall and winter or initiating talks, hoping to only lose Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts.
Any way the chips fall, we’re in for an interesting summer. Maybe none at all and an early nuclear winter, if the chips fall too far astray.
The Western media lies about pretty much everything all the time. Once in a while they get the weather right. The funniest part of this story is Graham saying he’s been briefed. His briefs probably have Hello Kitty on ’em. He undoubtedly believes what he said – which shows how ridiculously awful American intel is.
Col. Macgregor’s Youtube channel posted an interview he had with the Judge, and he said he thinks the ‘SAS’, (UK Special Forces?), did or assisted with the Moscow drone attack, and he is sure they were launched from within Russia. He thinks NATO officers and many others were killed when the Intel building was bombed in Kiev, and the Moscow attack was reactive to that.
I can only say that I am repulsed by direct attacks on civilians. The targeting of Russian academics, bloggers, authors and now suburban homes reminds me of the way organized crime did their work in Chicago. I’ll never respect people like that, and I don’t want my tax dollars supporting people who do things like that.
Shortly after that attack, a new star at the CIA HQ in Langley was added to those fallen in the line of duty. Russia got one at least!
Well, ol’ foot in the mouth Kirby just said during that interview that “We help them plan out all sorts of attacks but they are the ones who decide if or when to attack”. Then a few sentences later, he says “We don’t enable their attacks on Russia in any way.”
Can this clown walk, chew gum and speak English at the same time?
Training terrorist have always been a British thing. The difference is that now they are doing it in public.
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/brits-teach-ukrainians-bombs:b
I have great respect for Col. Macgregor, for the insight and wisdom he brings. The West needs more like him with the courage to call it as it is.
Still like all of us he is not always 100% correct.
So this happened in kherson
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2023/05/27/ukraine-war-day-458-saldo-poisoning-mystery/#comments
I would love to see arrest warrants issued for
Western media types like Joe Scarborough. I would like to see a bounty placed on him
for extradition to wherever to stand trial for something-spreading propaganda. Then see
it happen after he is taken into custody.
I threw a shoe at his mug on screen once. Sent him the bill for the damage and never heard back. He’s a deadbeat, like Hunter.
The jokes ON Kiev …but it’s nice they can still maintain that fatalistic sense of humor.
Maybe BoJo needs to visit with another pep talk.
He should do it soon before it turns into a perp walk.
Just a ‘what if’ here:
What if the proposed July NATO military exercises are to cover for a huge build up of NATO forces close to the Russian border that could be used offensively against Russia? After all it has happened to Russia before: Operation Barbarossa.
Is that maybe why Russia has moved strategic nuclear weapons into Belarus?
Just a couple of questions from a non military reader.
Recent statements by Kadyrov appear to indicate a coming Russian offensive including this reported by Pravda: https://military.pravda.ru/news/1840282-chechenskie_podrazdelenija_postavili/
But I’m not sure why he should be advertising it.
Advertise what? That his troops are going to the frontline to fight, or that he will take Krivoy Rog?
Movements of large formations can not be hidden nowdays. His assault infatrymen are doing assault operations, and Marinka front already have an assault operation going on, albeit at a glacial pace. It’s like battle for Bakhmut, but smaller and stretched out (and with every single building flattened). Maybe they will push a bit harder, or maybe they are doing regular troop rotation.
Krivoy Rog is where Zelensky is born, and is on the other side of the Dnieper river. Mentioning it is just a part of informational warfare, much like the rest of the article.
First time commenter on any site. Thanks for such great analysis work from you, your other contributors, and the great and knowledgeable commenters.
While I know that the stated goal is the overthrow of Vladimir Putin and the subsequent break up of Russia into smaller pieces which can be asset stripped by the West, I have to wonder if a very close secondary goal is the Russian Navy base in Crimea. After all, with the 2014 CIA/MI6 coup, the global hegemon, with Ukraine, Romania, and nominally Turkiye, had effort full control of the Black Sea, a coveted goal for hundreds of years, first by the British and later America.
Unfortunately, President Putin outsmarted them with the referendum regarding which country the residents of Crimea wanted to be associated with. Not only did the people, who were mostly Russian, win but so did Russia. The hegemon has been seething and plotting ever since.
The hegemon thought that with the new war, they would finally claim their Crimean prize but are now losing badly.
Could all the attacks on Moscow and Belgorod region be about forcing Russia to concentrate their efforts in that northeastern area of Ukraine so that NATO can possibly salvage Odessa, and have at least one Ukrainian port on the Black Sea? I know Romania still has Black Sea access too but for whatever reason we don’t hear much about that port.
Really good questions. You have to consider the possibility that the only real “goals” as you understand them are for certain people to stay in power, to make money and to avoid accountability for what they’ve done. Removing Russia as the dominant power in the region is just a cover story for these ends. Common sense tells you it is not possible to replace the hegemon next door with the hegemon across the seas.
The attacks in Belgorod are an attempt to force the Russians to do something they would not otherwise do. IMO they are intended to force an invasion of northern Kharkiv, whereas the Russian plan seems to be to invade eastern Kharkiv. You will need to look at a map to understand the different strategies here. The attacks on Moscow are likely UK-directed and intended to cause Russia to lash out at a NATO member.
The Odessa situation is complicated for Russia. The southern part of the region directly borders Romania and it would be a major escalation requiring a response should it attempt to occupy it. The same does not necessarily hold for Odessa city proper. So it is in Russia’s interest that Ukraine continues to administer the southern region. My guess is that will eventually be Moldovan territory with Moldova being included in the Eurasian economic union.
Kadyrov is a tidbit too emotional and gets carried away. That is why he sometimes says things like that. He basically orders his men to show no mercy on the battlefield in my opinion.
He despises terrorism. But he often forgets that the real enemy is sitting somewhere else. Those unlucky men that are send to die in their treches are only pawns, well most of them I would say.
I don’t know why , but it remind me one of VVP comment “we have started nothing yet”. There are two way of reading this statement : “they didn’t start the whole shit”… that is a view some could argue about. And “We won’t need to tell you the day we start something” , but did he said it will be a surprise or an evidence is still to be discover. May booth.
Banderistan is poking the bear harder and harder … the bear is patient , but when he won’t be anymore , none can tell ^^.
Nah, it was translated into American vernacular. ‘We haven’t started anything yet’, meaning we’ve been fighting limited engagements with one hand tied behind our back so far.
I think that advertising offensives in modern day ISR environment is not too big of a problem – opponents notice big troop movements anyway, and its not really possible to send 30k+ of people without anyone noticing it. Smaller offensives just don’t have enough strength to do much anway.
Details of offensive are a bit different, so you could probably do partial maskirovka (like preparing to attack somewhere but only do partial attack or similar, while making full attack elsewhere), but total surprizes should in general be close to impossible…
Not particularly related to this article but it appears US (possibly Javelin anti-tank missiles) and Swedish-manufactured anti-tank missiles are now showing up with the Mexican drug cartel gunmen on the Texas border.
https://abeldanger.blogspot.com/2023/05/putin-vindicated-mexican-drug-cartel.html
The idea of a counter offensive is British copy edit advertising to drop more weapons and munitions into Ukraine.
The pirate City of London’s commercial war on Russia is all but an officially declared war between Britain (racists) and Russia. There are an alleged 3,000 British in Ukraine directing the Ukrainian military. It is this British hand behind these Ukrainian terrorist drone attacks inside Russia.
The pirate City of London with their US corporate bitch (US weapon sales profiteers is the American way) in tow are not going to stop until this is an all out war. You can practically sense it with every news piece released if you know how to read between the lines.
Further news concerning the British. “British politicians are now a legitimate military target for Moscow”, a senior Russian official said, after the U.K.’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly argued “Ukraine has the right to use force within Russian borders.”
If Cártel del Golfo has AT-4’s, they likely have Stingers, too.
Note the CDG soldier has military body armor and an AK variant, too. These guys control much of the US-Mexico border and much of Mexico, too. How much of the US they control is open to question.
Larry, not being anything to do with the sort of analysis you do, I came to the same conclusion some days ago. But not even my youngsters listen to their Dad!
Clearly the Ruskies have upped their game. In desperation(?) Ukies are resorting to attacks inside Poccia. The famed Spring offensive is like a Frank Richards, ‘Bunter’s Postal Order is in the Post’, chapter. Q: Spring. Do you believe that?
If it is possible, Big Z is getting even more desperate. Latest I see, Financial Times – Zelensky has “made clear to NATO leaders that he will not attend the Vilnius summit without concrete security guarantees and a road map for accession,” the newspaper said. Note: it is msm output.
We have been hearing of the Ruskies running out of missiles for over a year now. Meanwhile the Ukies say they fire two missiles at every incoming drone or missile. And they take out ninety odd percent of them!
Again, my innocent question is ‘do you believe that?’.
Larry, my take is Big Z has run out of everything; has twisted arms and used up whatever he got; the whole World now has a shortage of munitions; there is no such thing as a people factory – and it takes twenty years to produce one; and on.
Meanwhile, the Ruskies don’t even blink. The end is nigh for Big Z and Ukraine. Hence the desperation.
The Mericans will neither let him negotiate, nor allow surrender.
So, what is going to happen next?
Zelenski and his lords are playing with fire. If suddenly Putin decides to allocate all Russian forces and anger, the ukronazis will pay a huge bill. The destruction of the last UKR militar vessel is a signal that any western equipment is a valid target.
Putin and his military brass have demonstrated the patience of Job with the Ukie Nazis and their NeoCon leash-holders. Doubtful they will suddenly break pattern and strike in anger. Besides, the massed Russian Forces are there in case the US/UK decides to convert their upcoming “exercise” into Zelenski’s “spring offensive”. No way Russia will be incited to use those reserve forces in response to the pin-prick/terrorist attacks. If the NeoCons are so stupid as to try extending the “exercise”, THEN Russia will hand out “surprises” to them. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
The intimation from Russian officials that neither the Atlantic or the Pacific will protect Fortress North America could mean Russia already has the coordinates of all the US mainland nuclear missile silos programmed into their hypersonic targeting systems. Americans were “surprised” and aghast that 9/11 could happen. Imagine the shock of a CONVENTIONAL decapitation of the US’s vaunted nuclear deterrent. It has been amply demonstrated in Ukriane that neither fortification of the silos or parking Patriots on top of them will stop the Russian hypersonics.
I think Putin and Xi have decided this is the last iteration of Nazism the Rothschild Class will be allowed to foist on the world. No more Operation Paperclips transplanting Nazis into key positions to start the process again.
The Ukrainian Nazis can’t launch anything, let alone an offensive, because they (& their military potential) were defeated after a few days. NATO will launch some more actions in Ukraine, but won’t have much time to regret it.
“High number of foreign mercenaries and NATO soldiers, respectively, are already fighting in Ukraine. See: 2:42 ff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wur4YRSrwIk
NATO is fighting in Ukraine. Apart from soldiers, also with money, food, equipment, weapons, ammunition, satellite info etc.
Ex CIA Analyst Ray McGovern: If you think the President is running things, you’re sadly mistaken https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQzmmHDB8TI
Who controls the NATO? The USA? WRONG. Who does it?
Both the US and NATO are controlled by the Rockefeller’s, Rothschild’s and their ilk.
They have been joined by the Windsor’s (whose name was Saxe-Coburg; then they renamed themselves in Windsor in 1917, after the name of the building “Windsor Castle” built in the 11th c.) and the like, and many new-rich, who however sit in the second, third & fourth row.
They want to establish the satanic New World Order/ Domination/ Dictatorship over the whole world (through their people in the UNO, WHO, WEF, Bilderberg, IMF, World Bank … & NATO), and dispose of all natural resources (incl. Siberian) alone.
Satans want to rule over all people, incl. toddlers, and use & misuse them for their satanic purposes.
“Children must have sexual partners” – say the UN & WHO
https://stopworldcontrol.com/
Whom they can buy (from presidents & government members), they buy. Those who don’t let themselves be bought (Putin & the like) must be eliminated. Thus, Russia should be smashed.
NATO was founded by the USA in 1949. The USSR wanted to join NATO. When NATO refused, the USSR formed the Warsaw Pact six years later in 1955 – in response to that refusal.
(The ideologies were different, but military alliances are another matter).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhLkwmSu98
(The monstrous Stalin was not a Russian, but a Georgian, under whom the Russian people suffered the most)
Yeltsin and afterward Putin also wanted to lead Russia into NATO.
Putin to Clinton during his visit to Moscow in 2000:
“What does America think about Russia joining NATO?”
Clinton’s response was (as Putin expressed it) “let’s say very cautious.”
Putin: “If you don’t want us as friends and allies, why are you making an enemy out of us”? (Putin knew exactly, why)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/__DnpU8-20w
For every action the NATO & Co. will be punished accordingly/ severely, so, until their downfall, which Putin, Xi & Co. will bring about – this very year.
Medvedev: “This will not be forgiven them. We will beat (= kill) the Nazi carcass of the 21st c.”
Zelensky also, US installed president, a Jew, wears clothes with Nazi symbols. There is an unprecedented fusion of evil.
The U.S. puts whoever they want and in whatever government position they want. Ex:
Wiretapped telephone conversation: Victoria Nuland & Pyatt
(Nuland says: “Yantsenyuk should be MP” & he becomes MP).
See 0:40 f. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9J6sxCs5k
Some White House officials call this V. Nuland the ” Mad Jewish Arsonist of the War.” See 0:40 f. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmlScyYF_UM
All Nazi-Bastards & their collaborators/ supporters (are also Nazi-Bastards who only call themselves something else) will be destroyed.
“Most of them are dead!”- Ukraine’s army DECIMATED says Col. MacGregor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LmXouVk1AE
Together with the USA, the biggest supporters of Nazism and Nazis themselves have attacked 117 countries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO59mrGEHeo
Saxe-Coburg-Gotha in point of fact of the House of Wettin. If you knew any history and knew anything about Martin Luther you would know about the House of Wettin and the Wartburg
Clearly you simply want to sneer rather than understand that European history is intertwined and the Belgian Monarchy is also Saxe-Coburg-Gotha
Russian monarchs were also married into German aristocracy over centuries
Hi Larry.
What are the geographical boundaries of the conflict regarding NATO?
If NATO joins in full scale, does the conflict still stay in Ukraine, or do the bases in Germany/UK/US/Poland etc become fair game?
At what point do Russia’s allies move into the battlefield? And is that Battlefield just in Ukraine or a wider world war on many fronts?
It seems to me this war is spiralling out of control, and it’s hard to see it staying in Ukraine. I don’t see any serious debate about where these escalations go next.
Russia will not escalate with the West nor respond openly to Western (ineffective) escalations as long as it continues to attrit NATO weapon stores, something it is doing quite effectively. Destroying the Polish military (I think Poland, after US, Turkey (nope – Erdogan won), and Ukraine (destroyed) is the largest standing or recently stood up NATO army) fits in well with this strategy.
Note, due to the US grand master plan for war on China (without drugs 20% the US economy is dead – and many patients – worse than the great depression – stock up on your meds!!!!), it is the forward-based European munitions that are being depleted – the illusion masters in DC seem to think Russia will, in a direct conflict, allow massive resupply by boat to cross the Atlantic. Hah!
Call it the Bakmut strategy redux. Its “low cost” in terms of Russia lives and assets and works thanks to the ideological corner the West is in (and because Western people have no say in matters of importance).
In both cases, Russia is pre-empting by attriting personnel and weapons. So, yes, Larry, yes!
Russia says it will attack “the decision making center,” meaning Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, Berlin, Warsaw. Some Russian leader (Lavrov?) noted a little while ago that the Atlantic was not a defensive moat, it was a highway for delivering weapons.
The weapons need not be nuclear. Imagine what a few cruise missiles launched into the NYSE would do to the American economy.
Imagine what destroying all NSA/CIA/FBI data centres in the US would do to the US’ ability to warmonger. And if the 4 remaining Five Eyes decided to get cute and take up that task for the US, destroy their spy data centres as well.
Again, all conventional hypersonics, no need for nukes.
It has been amply demonstrated in Ukraine that no current US bunker tech or Air Defense system can withstand Russia’s (and China’s?) hypersonics.
But Putin and Xi will not wait long to deliver a coup de grace to the US/ZATO Empire, as the US will probably figure out hypersonics sooner rather than later, and then we are back to square one MAD. Unless Russia has more tech wizardry in the near-works, the hypersonic advantage is a time-limited offer, made possible by the US MIC and the NeoCon/Rothschild Class believing their own “exceptionalist, superior, WEF” propaganda.
Need proof? The F35 MIC-debacle is STILL having significant design and maintenance issues. Little things like the engines overheating… you’d think the MIC boffins would have noticed such a problem before going into production. But the US is planning on selling technically-flawed F35s as replacements to the NATO dupes that are sending appropriately functional F16s. Pretty expensive kamikaze weapons, which are not stealthy to Russian AD systems. Political decisions, not military decisions.
Unless Russia/China has solid inside info showing the the US is still years away from having practical hypersonics, I would think any major Russia moves would be well underway by late summer 2023. If Nuland et.al. decides to use the “exercises” to bring ZATO into direct involvement, that would be another stated Red Line crossed without doubt.
Russia is as ready as possible for whatever the NeoCon/Rothschild crowd has in mind, notice the Cabal’s desperation in stoking any and all black ops/regime change flashpoints like Sudan and South Africa to attempt to “spread Russia thin”.
The US is actually building another big base in…. Syria??? One has to wonder if anyone in Washington has a brain. The Saudis INVITED Syria back into the Arab League. If there ever was a “put a fork in it” moment, that was it. The Saudis have been loyal to Britain, then the US, since the Ottoman Empire fell. A “partnership” that lasted 100 years is suddenly degraded to a fist-bump for Biden, while Assad gets the full diplomatic monte, hugs all around.
The Nuland Cabal has gone rogue, as no one in Washington seems to be able to even get them to answer questions from Congress. It is possible Nuland’s Cabal is not even taking their orders from the Rothschild Class anymore. Is this their desperate final grab at the World Domination Brass Ring, as Russia and China with much of the Global South have decided “this far and no farther”. Whether the Rothschilds (see Macron’s comments post-China meeting) or Washington can regain control over the Nuland Cabal remains to be seen.
But in any case, if Washington and the Rothschild Class can’t (or won’t) remove or control the Nuland Cabal, Russia and China will keep kicking the Ukraine/Sanctions Project in the nads until the US/UK cries “uncle”.
Glasshopper says
If NATO joins in full scale, does the conflict still stay in Ukraine, or do the bases in Germany/UK/US/Poland become fair game?
My comment.
If NATO officially joins the war, NATO Nation becomes targets for Russian attacks.
In the first instance expect the NATO headquarter in Brussels and the US Ramstain base in Germany to be hit.
And at the same time every military installations close to Russia will be attacked: In Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, and Romania.
When intercontinental nuclear missiles are launched against Russia, by the US or UK Navy or by US installations in Europe, expect Russian Intercontinental nuclear Missiles to strike Main cities in Europe, Britain and America.
Glasshopper says
At what point do Russia’s allies move into the battlefield? And is that Battlefield just in Ukraine or a wider world war on many fronts?
My comment:
When the first F-16 fighters get on its wings in Ukraine, expect a Major Russian offensive in Ukraine, in the Baltic States and the Black Sea region.
Expect National militia attacks against US-NATO Troops stationed in Kosovo, Syria, Iraq, Africa including major attacks on Israel and attacks on US interests in South America. Expect a war to break out between China and the US-UK over Taiwan.
Glasshopper says
I don’t see any serious debate about where these escalations go next.
My comment:
There is a no serious debate about this topic because the western Main Stream Media have already turned to war propaganda on behalf of their paymasters.
Palamedes says
So, what is going to happen next?
My comment:
If NATO succeeds in driving us to WWIII, it will be the end of Western civilization.
If NATO turns out to be a paper Tiger or folds, it will be the end of NATO and the EU.
F16s are no magical plane. India has been beating them in skirmishes on the Pakistan border with soviet era MIGs..
In multi country exercises Indian Air Force with its Russian/soviet planes routinely rack up F16 kills against US Air Force year after year.
F16s in Ukraine are going to be the old planes destined for resale to third world countries or cannibalised for parts. Already a private company has been authorised to buy F16s most likely for resale or parts and these are the ones likely to turn up in Ukraine.
They will be taken down by Russia in similar manner as other Soviet era Ukrainian planes.
The coming Ukrainian offense has all the markings of a Biden/Austin/Nuland psyop. Sabber rattling with a few terrorist attcks on Russian civilians in the hopes that Russians will rise up and overthrow Putin. A clown show masquerading as a military strategy.
Larry lives in my head. Yes. Yes, the Russians are pre-empting the offense.
Here is the problem. The Ukes are stretched thin. Only so many chain ganged draftees left. They COULD break through somewhere. Because of the scale of Ukraine. My geographically challenged country mates do not understand the size of Ukraine. But if they gathered a force, they could penetrate and break the Russian line somewhere. What they would do then is rather a good question.
But. Russia now has more satellites over Ukraine than we do. They are flying their AWACS from Belarus. Any time you get more than 4 UkroNazi’s together in a circle-jerk? They are going to get pounded.
Here is your war. Small terrorist actions by Ukraine. Targeting Russian civilians. Small unit actions by Russians with massive artillery support. Taking village after village. Town after town. Slowly. Inexorably.
There is only one question. Will the lunatics that run the Western World go all in? Air and missile strikes during the upcoming NATO exercises and meetings of June and July? Will the Russians either counterattack, or just maintain the grind? (There will be no Russian offensive – The grind is working too well).
And of course, we do not live in a vacuum. The US economy is failing. The German economy is a 1980’s AIDS victim shambling down the road. The US election cycle is starting. The Chinese economy is not recovering. And by the way? Xi has had it. He is forcibly de-coupling from the US economy. And they are our source of cheap shit. Which keeps this clown car running.
The most fascinating thing is going to be when the West throws the towel in. And expects Russia to take a “peace” deal. Which Russia would be clinically insane to do. Any “peace” deal would just be a time buyer to re-arm the Nazi’s. And start this all over again. Russia is budgeting for this war to extend thru 2029. Which tells me this war is going on till there is no Ukrainian Army left.
But that would be thru two more Kabuki theater American elections. Regardless of what figurehead buffoon we shortly elect, this is going to become an albatross. I see an Afghanistan slink away shortly after the November 2024 ballot box stuffing. That will give 4 years for the stench of this dead hooker to waft away.
> Not sure what constitutes an “impressive show of force” …
For U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, that would be tying people to a pole, and beating them over their naked ass. I bet that’s the reason he went to Kiev in the first place. What I’m not sure is on which end of the stick he prefers to be.
Great! Now I have that image in my mind. Help!
> Is Russia Pre-Empting the Ukrainian Offensive?
Yes. It looks like that was the plan all along. It turns out that Surovikin & co. think differently than all those Internet armchair generals, and are not into drawing big arrows towards Lavov. They also do not announce their plans on Twitter, for some reason, and just let everyone babble about quattro stagioni offensives and counter-offensives.
The accuracy RU weapons in this war is fascinating, GPS coordinates carried out to 6 or 7 digits puts you within centimeters of the target. This kind of accuracy combined with information means that an area can be totally cleansed of enemy positions, even the smallest ones. Accuracy like this only needs a force multiplier, and the best multiplier for this kind of accuracy is Ukr residents reporting over social media or covertly back to Russian spies what buildings appear to have military significance. Another great force multiplier for this kind of accuracy are massive numbers of small, cheap, consumer hobby drones looking for targets. I saw a video on Bitchute Simplicious76 of maybe 1,000 such drones being prepared for battle. With this war the US is literally training the Russian military and industries in ways that will take the USA a decade to learn in practice. The US MIC likes to pour billions into solutions looking for a problem. This war proves every day that Russian MIC starts with the problem and solves problems, and fast.
“the latest delusional pronouncement by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham”
The delusional pronouncements have been nonstop since the beginning. Instead of acknowledging reality, they give Ukraine ever-more sophisticated weapons systems (HIMARS, F-16s) that they previosuly said they would not, in order to (they think) force reality to align with their delusions.
Since it is clear that Ukraine cannot win, and that the U.S./West “leadership” cannot tolerate a situation where their delusional thinking is laid bare for all to see, this means that the war will inevitably become a nuclear confrontation.
There is no other possible outcome. It is where this death cult mentality is taking us. It is no different than Jonestown or Waco or Heaven’s Gate. These fanatical mass murdering psychopaths are going to kill us all, because they simply cannot be wrong.
We are being inexorably led to WWIII and the end of everything.
Only God can save us now.
Listening to Larry on the latest CrossTalk…
Graham and the art appearing to be saying something while saying nothing. But he is no match for the best word salad maker and the champion is Kamala. Russians are in for a rude awakening… the Ukrainians will put an impressive show of force. What the hell does that mean anyway.
It means the people of South Carolina should be ashamed of themselves for electing a Senator like Lindsey Graham who shames every country and even human specie! And to be blunt, we can say the same for the population of all countries that supported the proxy war. Because blaming politicians is very comfortable. Politicians only do what public opinion allows! How long has it been since we heard Macron talk about the war in Ukraine? Because we all hear the same propaganda campaign about the conflict in Ukraine but we don’t all believe it do we?
I was going to write to give Lindsey Graham a break because a sexual destination like Kiev for a racist faggot is like Disneyland for innocent children. But I honestly don’t believe Zelensky is in Kiev. Ukraine has basically already collapsed. With no Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Zelensky runing away Kiev every day, Nuland’s new counterpart is already terrorist Budanov because there’s no one left! Who in a few days will also be with his father Bandera!
And the insanity in Washington is even greater. With the Biden Administration completely lost after burying billions in Ukraine. The latest video of Nuland pretending to talk to someone in Kiev is totally fake. A ridiculous simulation! She’s not talking to anyone. No one tells another person what they have been doing with that person in the past 4 months. Ridiculous! Nuland trying to psyops and Moscow bursting with laughter. In the previous video Nuland was going to conquer Crimea. remember?
Only someone completely mad in the US today would think they still have a say in Ukraine’s future after the total failure of the US! The future of Ukraine today depends entirely on Russia. And the West is already trying to convince Ukraine to accept all the territory lost to date and negotiate with Russia because it has already accepted that tomorrow will be worse for everyone in the West! And some solution needs to appear by the end of the summer for the EU! The counter-offensive today is just propaganda to offset the total defeat of the West in Ukraine!
It’s hard to believe in so much amateurism on the part of the US. This whole US “operation” in Ukraine was from the beginning mainly a propaganda operation. Washington believed it could overthrow Putin with economic sanctions and a PR campaign! LMAO! With Putin’s approval rating always rising in Russia. A gang of fanatical and brainless neocons totally failed the economic sanctions calculations and everything they tried after the sanctions failed! These people are good for nothing! I didn’t even want them to wash my car.
Remember when 6 months ago everyone was going to spend the summer in Crimea? Americans and Ukrainians. Nuland, after destroying the Russian drone base on Crimea and Podolyak, the psychopath who replaced the chief clown of Zelensky’s propaganda, Arestovych! And today it’s pure despair with England stopping an independent journalist from Grayzone like Pinochet in Chile in the 70’s. It’s total despair without a counter-offensive and with fear that the inevitable defeat and the true, the money laundering scheme in the arms pipeline, begins to arrive to western public opinion! And damage control has already begun!
that is really unfair. NATO trained Ukraine to NATO standards, gave them weapons and resources which were used to terrorize the Russian speaking populations, killing tens of thousands (Mass murder is NOT psyops). THese pseudo-NATO forces – the largest in europe were to roll over the Russian forces like a hot knife through cheese – that was the plan – while banning from SWIFT would turn the ruble to rubble, leading to the generals hanging Putin. It was a stupid plan and it didn’t work and it backfired (or blowback).
Plan B was to feed all the former soviet weapons into ukraine to keep the war going while Russia ran out of missiles. It was a stupid plan, but it got tens of thousands of Ukrainians killed.
Plan C – Poland declares a protectorate in west Ukraine. Its a stupid plan and it will backfire, but heck.
The psy-ops are aimed at NATO citizens to keep them asleep and happy while whatever they think they own is made worthless (inflation, collapsing economy) until they own nothing.
“…this means that the war will inevitably become a nuclear confrontation.
There is no other possible outcome.”
Yes, there is. A decapitation strike on the correct people using Kaliber missiles from a SSGN off the coast. No need to worry about air defenses shooting them down since there are none. Remember back in the day when a certain Secretary of State left an unsecured backup computer by the commode? By tapping into it and expanding sources they should have mapped out all the hard-core Russophobes in the US to be put on the target list.
Another thing for all to consider, what if Russia gets exasperated, says eff it, and decides to declare war? Lavrov recent statements imply they are getting closer to this step. Then they can go after the Trotsky Trio advising the Emperor and see if it induces an attitude adjustment in West World.
The one guarantee about Russia is they won’t be the first to use nuclear weapons because they don’t need to.
An audacious prognostication, hostilities in Ukraine end by July 17, 2023.
“..Yevgeny Prigozhin, a GRU mouthpiece…”
I would contend he is FSB, prison time to lend street credibility and the hot dog stand was part of an operation. The question is when was he recruited before or after the Breaking and Entering charge. It would also explain why he is always busting on the military, interservice rivalry.
Thomas
“A decapitation strike on the correct people”
As if that in itself wouldn’t trigger a nuclear war.
Even if we leave that trigger aside, decapitation stikes are terrorist attacks in everything but name. They don’t solve anything. USA have been decapitating left and right for who-knows-how-long. They even celebrate those killings. What did killing Osama, or other terrorist-of-the-month, change? What did killing Saddam change? Killing that Iranian general also didn’t change much, except making Iran target US bases with missiles.
“…decapitation stikes are terrorist attacks in everything but name.”
Are they if war is declared?
What are attacks on decision making centers?
Declaration of war is a thing of the past. USA have been decapitating around, without being at war with anyone. Iranian general was on an official visit to Iraq (supposedly to work on making peace with Saudi Arabia), and USA just drone striked him. I would call that a textbook example of (state) terrorism. Normal countries don’t engage in such things.
In a case of full on war (with or without declaration), all this talk makes little sense anyway, because the winner writes history.
“As if that in itself wouldn’t trigger a nuclear war.”
So you think the United States is going to destroy the world because members of the usurping subversives in government get their comeuppance?
Are you confident the US military will launch?
Thomas
“Are you confident the US military will launch?”
100%
I would further wager that if there is anyone actually contemplating such a “decapitation strike”, it isn’t Russia or China (because they know full well it’s suicide), but the U.S.
Now, what do you think the response of the Russian or Chinese military would be in such a scenario? “Hey, it looks like they’ve taken out our entire leadership, so let’s surrender.”???
Uh huh.
I am unfortunate to have Graham and Joe Wilson in my vicinity. Opportunity brings out the beast in individuals sometimes in crises. Yes, the Russians are systematically dismantling the Ukrainian plans. The Ukes may find themselves in a battle cut off from adequate supplies and fighting to the last Ukrainian. That suits the US government delightfully. They don’t have to worry about their proxies coming to their senses and surrendering. There is much more terrorism to come and much more provocation to world war by Ukraine. There are plenty of hostages in southern Ukraine.
“… idealistic & hopeful…” just a young girl in the big city… Vicky Nuland… with a gleam in her eye as she plunges ahead.
I had to stop the tape and laugh…
I’m still chuckling.
Sometimes you just got to laugh… these people.
Great characterization!
For satire… or worse.
Lindsey’s recent statement about the Uke counter offensive might mean that it will include massive NATO air strikes on Russian positions (“shaping operations”) to coincide with planned NATO air exercises in mid-June. John Helmer (Dances with Bears) first suggested that possibility a couple weeks ago. Escalation escalator!
https://johnhelmer.net/bravado-before-capitulation-will-russian-defeat-of-us-patriot-missile-be-followed-by-ukrainian-f-16-attack-during-the-nato-air-defender-23/
Looking like NATO is fermenting a second front in Kosovo maybe an attempt to draw in Russia who backed off last time.
Don’t think they’ll find it so easy this time.
Moldovan President just met with Zelensky. Said she was fine with Ukrainian troops entering Moldova to invade Transnistria. I had had numerous posts on here wondering when the UkroNazi’s would hit Transnistria. Short supply lines. As far as possible from Russian air support. Very few Russian troops there. And this would be a propaganda “win” for the Nazi’s. I wonder if Putin is going to allow the Russians there to be captured and slaughtered so he does not offend his Euro buddies?
No. Putin will do whatever random idiots on the Internet tell him to do.
It seems like Russia will eventually extend the “Bakhmut Bear Trap” to all of Ukraine. Like a large toilet, the West will send their munitions in through Western Ukraine, and the Russians will flush them away, either at their point of entry or along the way. No need for the war to go overseas if it can be relatively confined to a single (and decreasing) “country”.
Russia can’t win as the economy is in trouble.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/01/vladimir-putin-no-money-kit-modern-war-russia-ukraine/
Oh, no! Wait a minute, it’s The Telegraph. Nevermind.
“Sanctions against Russia have been the unsung success story of the advanced democracies.”
The Telegraph used to be a good paper but their coverage of the smo has been diabolical.
Since Feb, 2022, the SMO has been all about preparing for and pre-empting the NATO/Ukrainian offensive(s) Russia was sure were coming. “Pre-empting”, in this case may be less accurate than “parrying”, and sometimes “shaping” NATO/UA’s offensives to render them strategically ineffectual.
On the preparation side, Russia is using Ukraine as a live-fire exercise against its enemy’s doctrines, strategies, tactics and weapons to test, adjust and then hone its own weapons, command & communications structures, logistics, industrial plant, personnel and the Russian population itself. All that while keeping its powder dry by not letting NATO/Ukraine do the same.
If Russia wasn’t ready for a head-on war with NATO a year ago, it is close to ready now. It has rotated 100,000s of its ground troops, aviators, logistics personnel, military police, intelligence and SFs through the Syrian and Ukrainian theatres for combat experience. It’s learned what works and what doesn’t, and has turbo-charged those sectors of its munitions plant that it thinks it will need for what the war will now inevitably look like.
Its strategic planning and operations shaped their enemies into forces they could beat. Both ISIS and NATO/UA have been manoeuvred into fighting the wars Russia wanted to fight. NATO (like ISIS) is now less ready to fight that war than it has ever been and is out of options to shift their strategies, while Russia has never been more ready.
Meanwhile, there’s a coordinated, complementary SDO (Special Diplomatic Operation) being run just as rigorously under the radar. Russia’s (and China’s) diplomats and officials are everywhere turning enemies into neutrals, neutrals into friends, and friends into allies (in Lavrov’s words).
The sum of the SDO & SMO’s message is: “You need not fear the wrath of NATO/ISIS/IMF/WB/BIS. Russia’s got ISIS/NATO’s number, and China is taking care of the rest. We’re building a new world order that respects your needs, your culture and your sovereignty. When you’re ready, join us.”
Russia’s “special” operations work hand-in-glove with each other, and are closely coordinated with China’s “Special Financial Operations”. Together, they’re driving global change at an accelerating pace, but the SMO has to be managed lest it outrun events. Small nations are naturally reluctant to invert their power structures to toss centuries of Western dominance over the fence on the say-so of two countries who were themselves prostrate before the West but a few decades ago. A brutal, shock ‘n awe offensive a la Baghdad 2003 would complicate their deliberations in unfavourable ways.
That’s why I was quite sure that the Russian “winter offensive” was a red herring. It didn’t fit the script. Its time is coming, maybe soon if NATO does something really stupid, but I’d wager that if the Russians play all their cards right it’ll look more like Crimea 2014 than Bakhmut 2023. Some critical combination of Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov, Dnipro and maybe some others will wake up one morning to polite men in green at every intersection and the the SMO will morph into the SPO (Special Police Operation). We’re a year or more away from that scenario, but everything I see says that the Russians are aiming for a Crimea 2.0.
Fiona Hill (of all people) spotted the geo-political reality of what has happened in an astonishing recent speech. The original alt-narrative about the Ukraine war, she says, has morphed from Ukraine as NATO’s proxy in its war on Russia, to Russia becoming the proxy for the rest of the world’s war on American Hegemony (https://youtu.be/am5XELY705A). Geo-politically, that’s as radical as it gets.
If anyone doubts Ms. Hill’s conclusion, at a post-election rally, Turkey’s Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu voiced this equally astonishing passage:
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/66324
No establishment voices would’ve voiced anything like the above had the Russians obliterated Kiev in Feb/Mar 2022, and we wouldn’t have 30+, countries including a few majors applying for BRICS and/or SCO membership in open defiance of Western directives.
As Borrell said: “They’re not listening”. He and the rest of the West’s elites have their hand in the monkey jar and can neither hold on nor let go. In the coming years they’ll have to do one or the other, and they’ll inevitably make their decisions individually over the course of the rest of this decade. The ground shifts but slowly under the world’s elites at first, then increases exponentially. In spots, it’s shaking violently already.
“Russia becoming the proxy for the rest of the world’s war on American Hegemony”
Given the U.S. doctrine of “full spectrum dominance” over land, sea, air and space, and given the fact that that both political parties are in lockstep on this and there is nary a voice in power that is not crowing loudly about defeating Russia (and China), tell me how this does not devolve into WWIII.
It’s fine to talk about a world without the U.S. as a hegemon, but then there’s pesky reality. The U.S. has spent decades and untold trillions of $ building up ~800 military bases around the world along with a global navy and God only knows what weaponry orbiting above us – and the people in charge are crazy enough to use it all to stay on top. They’re as fanatical as any religious cult. They’re psychopathic narcissists who worship money and power. Nothing so lofty as “humanity” will stand in their way; indeed, they despise it, which is why they’re fixated on lunatic ideas like transhumanism. In spite of what they mouth, they despise western enlightenment values like democracy, individual rights and free speech, thus the “woke” malarkey, which all comes from above. They’ve got people in the west so dumbed down and confused they are sterilizing themselves and cheering on censorship and authoritarianism.
They don’t give a crap about Ukrainians, Europeans, or even Americans, much less Russians or Chinese. That much has to be plain by now. Kill a million or a billion, it makes no difference to them. We’re all just cattle to them, and they’d actually like to thin the herd – considerably.
Then there’s this:
US dollar dominance to persist for decades despite challenges – Moody’s
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/EURO-US-DOLLAR-EUR-USD-4591/news/US-dollar-dominance-to-persist-for-decades-despite-challenges-Moody-s-43949360/
There is no path to dethroning the giant squid that doesn’t result in billions being killed. This is just cold, hard reality.
“Given the U.S. doctrine of “full spectrum dominance”… tell me how this does not devolve into WWIII.”
All fine and well to have such a doctrine on paper and perhaps even to believe and mouth it like a mantra every time the sun rises, but if you ain’t got what it takes you ain’t gonna do nuthin’.
Every day, Russia & China are building strength, and every day the US and the West loses some. Some would argue that the two trajectories have already crossed. I would argue that they have economically and militarily, but politically and financially they haven’t. I’d argue that the political trajectories are likely to cross with the 2024 election, but the financial will take a while longer.
Moody’s is a pile of H/C-opium. The USD may continue to dominate the Western world’s finances, but its downward trend in the rest of the world is accelerating at an accelerating rate. A military move will serve to put a step function into that trajectory. A nuclear move would put a step function into everybody’s curve, but the US/West’s would be steepest and deepest. It has fallen as far behind in the nuclear domain as it has in conventional warfare.
Whatever the case may be, the US must act soon or cast their FSD doctrine aside. Can it do that without dissolving itself? Half of the American people are ready to cast it aside, but I doubt more than a handful of percent of its elites are of the same mind.
What stays their hand presently is the splinter in their collective brain that’s telling them that acting now could simply move the collapse of their Hegemonic dreams forward, perhaps dramatically so. They’re a poker player with a so-so hand that can’t support betting the farm, but it’s bet-the-farm-or-fold time.
I don’t pretend to know which they’ll choose, but either way FSD is a dead letter. The question the US is actually facing is whether and how much of Western leadership it can maintain going forward.
“if you ain’t got what it takes you ain’t gonna do nuthin’.”
Don’t confuse the many regional wars for profit that the U.S. has engaged in for the real thing. These wars were intended to drag on for years, not “won”. Forget the PR reasons for them; it’s a giant money laundering machine, just like Ukraine. The fact that millions are killed, maimed and displaced is just the cost of doing business. Remember what Smedley Butler said: “War is a racket.”
Those who underestimate what the U.S. can do if its global domination is actually threatened are fooling themselves.
The U.S. will continue to press Russia and China in every way possible, up to nuclear war. The only possible way out of it will be capitulation – and that isn’t something the U.S. will ever do.
There is no Plan B.
“Those who underestimate what the U.S. can do if its global domination is actually threatened are fooling themselves.”
I don’t think anybody’s fooling themselves. Instead, I’d argue that the US’ “global domination” is already under existential threat and that the tipping point from which recovery becomes impossible is certainly in sight if we haven’t actually passed it.
Given that and assuming Washington’s brain trusts understand the situation, it’s already doing what it can to slow the process. Whether they’ll choose the Samson Option over reason at the penultimate moment is unknowable (though I don’t like the odds).
There is no dominance in the industrial field. It’s already gone. Couple of sectors like computer chips and commercial airplanes is all it has left even in that challengers ate emerging.
Plus the world can go on with old planes for 5-10 years. Can those companies survive without orders for 5-10 years?
Already they have lost the Russian market, will they survive loosing chinas market? What will instead is talent and companies will rebel.
US may not be defeated by outside actors but its elite business will force the political elite to comply or they move abroad .
This is exactly how non western countries have been weakened for last 200 years because the business elite revolts in these countries making them weak internally. Now this phenomenon is coming to the West..
Every one has to bend to financial power.
People don’t understand what exactly dollar dominance means.
Does it mean it’s the main currency of exchange between third country transactions?
Does it mean countries having dollar reserves?
Does it mean purchase of US govt securities by countries and banks etc of the world?
The US control of Swift? And subsequently knowing about every countries trade deals with others?
What ever the answers to the above. The reality that has set in is that countries have realised that to transact trade between themselves they don’t have to always use US currency. In fact they can trade in their own currencies or sometimes even third countries currency.
Now this has just been decided as a principle few months back.
The actual initial action and results will take an year and half to manifest itself.
The idea of floating a new currency for trade between nations backed by real assets like resources minerals oil etc is still being discussed. Nothing concrete will emerge before two years at earliest.
Countries including allies are reducing their holding of dollar reserves, Japan china have been discretely reducing their dollar reserves.
This activity with reduced dependence on US and European services and products because alternatives already exist is a new phenomenon. The sanctions and the pressure exerted after Ukraine war has made diverse countries realise that it’s better to decouple from the Garden countries as much as possible.
Insurance, payment gateways for banks, banking , brokerage etc which the West used to make huge amount of money from is under severe attack. Today Japan said that it likes Indias UPI network for credit card and debit card transactions. France has already signed up for it as have number of Gulf Arab countries and North African countries. Chinas Union Pay and Russias MIR payment system is also making significant in roads.
The party is only getting started but established cheerleaders are already claiming based on recent data that no change is possible.
This is like my real estate agent telling me that market is still stable while all indicators say there is an over supply and real estate transactions have reduced but prices are still firm.
Yes they will be firm then suddenly collapse. Thats how collapse world in business where trust is key factor.
Eventually the capability of US govt to sell its debt freely will be reduced. This is where we will see the biggest change its capability to find it’s adventures will become hobbled like europes has been for decades.
For last decade most elites in Africa know that US and Europe simply has no money to give to
Africa but still pretend like they are powerful like earlier.
If you can’t put money where your mouth is you will discover very quickly that the world changes rather quickly for you.
Which is why Africa has turned to China which has the money, technical expertise and dept of engagement. It’s only now the Western audiences have discovered that Africa is out of orbit of US but this has been a fact on the ground for long time in Africa.
The Russian strategy seems to be undisturbed.
Per DAY, the artillery war chews around 600 KIA, which gives about 1800 WIA for a total of 2,400 soldier taken out of action. That is along a 1,000 km contact zone, where Russian fire on average 20,000-30,000 shells per day. That’s the base line.
In top of this, there is small arms fire, tanks, small attack drones, MRLS, and the nasty flame throwers, plus the various recognize and sabotage groups. That is the cream on the cake.
To finish, Russia launches every night, in the range of few hundred drones moving larger amount of explosive, flying all over Ukraine, and discovering the Anti-Aerian protection. Once those are exposed, the more exact, missiles from the *planes already in the air*. Take over and destroy everything of importance, anti-aerial installations, ammo deposits, agglomerations of military personnel, train junctions, so on. That’s the cherry on the cake.
They do that 24/7.
The best ‘cherry; lately was the GRU bunker attack which tombed around 100 high level Ukrainian and NATO advisers ( https://t.me/fred33flint/726 )