The Washington, DC political establishment has become so accustomed to lying to themselves and the American people that they are now blind to genuine danger because they insist that their lies are true. You know, the inability of define what is a women; the denial of a recession; and now, dismissing China’s threats of military retaliation if Nancy Pelosi shows up in Taiwan as empty rhetoric.
National Security Council spokesmodel, retired Admiral John Kirby, was all over the board today. First, he insisted that the United States does NOT support Taiwan’s independence. You see, according to the one China policy, Taiwan belongs to China. Got it? But Kirby does not stop there. He then insists that Nancy Pelosi has a legal right to visit Taiwan any damn time she wants. Kirby told CNN’s Brianna Keiler:
There is no reason for the Chinese rhetoric. There is no reason for any actions to be taken. It is not uncommon for congressional leaders to travel to Taiwan. It is very much in keeping with our policy and consistent with our support to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. We shouldn’t be — as a country, we shouldn’t be intimidated by that rhetoric or those potential actions. This is an important trip for the speaker to be on and we’re going to do whatever we can to support her.
And to underscore that our commitment to a policy of peace is serious, the US navy is moving its aircraft carriers closer and closer to Taiwan. US Air Force arrives in Okinawa. And Pelosi is telling U.S. and Taiwanese sources that she is headed to Taiwan on Tuesday.
Nancy does not believe the threats that appeared in China’s state media about shooting her out of the sky if she sticks to her plan of flying to Taiwan. Senator Marsha Blackburn, a real foreign policy prodigy, made this keen observation:
That would be a direct act of war, and the US does not accept foreign policy demands from communist China or any other belligerent bully, says US Senator Marsha Blackburn.
The Chinese are warning with words and action about the consequences of an unauthorized Pelosi visit. China’s envoy to the UN said, “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will undermine relations between Beijing and Washington, the United States must understand the consequences.”
It is no mere coincidence that China demonstrated its newest hypersonic missile on Sunday 31 July 2022: China
In a recent development, the Chinese government launched a ballistic missile that resembled a Dongfeng (DF) -17 hypersonic weapon on Sunday, July 31. According to reports, it was launched on the eve of the 95th anniversary of the formation of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA). The DF-17 is a Chinese solid-fuelled road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile with the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle. The video released by the Chinese government showed a LIVE-fire launch of the missile from a transporter erector launcher. Meanwhile, the Chinese state media claimed that this hypersonic missile would be almost untraceable.
Here are the possibilities:
- Nancy reverses course a decides not to make the visit.
- Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China, despite a bunch of angry words, does nothing consequential.
- Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China responds with economic sanctions against the west.
- Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China attacks a U.S. military target in the region.
- The Chinese shoot Nancy out of the sky or force her to land on the mainland.
I find it hard to believe that the Chinese are engaged in mere verbal posturing. Chinese authorities have been quite clear about their feelings regarding Pelosi’s “visit”–the Chinese see it as an attack on China. PERIOD. If the Chinese do back down this will be a major foreign policy victory for Joe Biden. Are the Chinese willing to humiliate themselves to help Dementia Joe out of a bind?
We will know the answers to these question in the next 24 hours.
I just posted this comment at MoA.
In the end, and as Michael Hudson would testify, it’s ALL economic.
Since China’s economy is built, largely, around manufacturing ‘stuff’ that is sold to the USA, she has been slow and methodical in the ‘dispute’ with the USA.
However, any sort of military action between China and the USA would disrupt that.
Given that fact, I would counsel Xi to allow Pelosi to fly into Taiwan under the announcement that THERE WILL BE A PRICE TO BE PAID. No China jets in the air. Let her tour the entire Formosa. Let her leave.
Next morning CRASH THE USA TREASURY MARKET.
Currently the USA 30-yr bond is at about 145.
Pelosi’s plane leaves Taiwan, sell 100 BILLION$, 200, whatever it takes to CRASH the bond market down to par (100).
No shots fired and the USA economy DEAD.
Sorry if the China dumps the treasuries nothing will happen as the fed can absorb it all. The reality is in times of crisis everyone wants USD. Many are anticipating the midterms and 2024 already.
If China opened up their capital accounts for their people to trade unlimited dollars the RMB would be at 20 to the dollar overnight. This is from someone who has lived in SZ for the past 15 years. The real estate is beyond over valued in every tier 1 and 2 city. Do some due diligence on prices.
As some one who has shorted the market from time to time for over 3 decades, Ive learned the hard way on what the fed and sec in 2008 can do. 1997 and 2008 are lessons learned that they will print and absorb just like japan has. moreover I learned the hard way that the SEC is even willing to temporarily ban short selling.
Moreover Europe is a basket case thats only going to get worse so the rich know the EURO is a doomed experiment. There is only the dollar as evidenced by the euro breaking parity.
The visit smells of a provocation, there’s no reason for Pelosi to go to Taiwan, the American Governing Elite must have known it would enrage the Chinese, letting it reach the stage it has reached now will mean one or the other party will be thought of as a weakling, a loss of face would have serious consequences, it will send a signal to the world either that America remains the top dog, or that China’s the new superpower. For Xi to back down before the October party gathering would be suicidal.
It’s anyone’s guess what will happen, Baron reckons Pelosi blinks first.
Yes there is. Her husband was caught insider trading with her help. This is a nice distraction
I’d hate to see a major war over the likes of corrupt old hag like Pelosi. I think most patriots would send a bottle of champagne to the crew that shot her down, however the US would look totally like foolish eunuchs unable to protect the 3rd in line to the presidency.
That they are even trying this BS is insanely irresponsible.
Eric Newhill says
The face that launched a thousand ships
Dude. That’s enough to put any man off his feed.
Eric Newhill says
I am not in favor of Pelosi’s belligerent provocations and agree with the sentiments and concerns expressed here, but I am genuinely curious – why are the Chinese so extraordinarily upset with Pelosi’s visit? As noted, other US reps have made unannounced visits (or so I read). What is pushing China’s buttons now?
Larry Johnson says
The Chinese watched the US attempt to destroy Russia. They watched our failure in Afghanistan and our continued hubris. They’ve drawn a line in the sand. Taiwan is theirs. We’ve accepted that by accepting the ONE CHINA policy. They are now calling our bluff and asserting their sovereignty.
Eric Newhill says
Thanks, Larry. Makes sense. Enough is enough. We are trouble they don’t need or want – and Pelosi represents the worst of it.
Eol Awki says
I think the basic issue is that the US seems to think that if they decide to visit a country, they can just up and go. There are legal protocols in place that govern these things, one of which is that before you visit a country, you must seek permission from its government. Pelosi has not sought permission from China to visit Taiwan – she thinks that as a citizen and official from the USA, she can just go whenever she feels like it – the height of arrogance. Normally, you are supposed to gain permission from the State, then fly into Peking for clearance, and then to Taiwan. Even diplomats are supposed to follow these protocols.
It is no wonder that the Chinese consider this act to be one openly challenging their sovereignty.
Quantity has a quality all its own, I suspect with its massive industrial advantages China is about to build up its military capacity with a rapidity our ruling class simply cannot conceive of. Go on to Alibaba and see how far behind we are in raw industrial output. It takes decades to build a deep industrial base we have simply run out of time.
China does not accept foreign incursions from corporatist America or any other belligerent bully
I’m think it’s more likely they’ll escort her back into International Airspace, there is no way President Jinping can accept anything else.
Baldrick thinks it’s an Ostridge moment
The Chinese said she can visit but not with military escort.
The issue is not so much her visit but military escort. The press is reporting her visit as being opposed and subject to threat of action.
Actually it appears her visit has been criticized but as long as no military escort China won’t take action.
So if she attends without military escort she is complying with China rules but it will no doubt be spun as China weakness.
Eol Awki says
Of course, it will be spun as Chinese weakness, which is why I rather doubt that interpretation. I think the Chinese have been very clear. The last instruction to their military as I know it was that if she flies to Taiwan, the military is to intercept her plane and force it to land on the mainland. If fighter jets accompany her, the instructions are the same. If the fighter jets open fire on the Chinese, all planes are to be shot out of the sky.
James K says
Larry’s #1 or #2 options are the most likely. For the first one, establishment US media will not spin option #1 as “US weakness”. For the second one, well — the Chinese won’t really care. They can “hype up” Pelosi’s visit all they want, do nothing when she arrives, and have all those asking about “What happened to all those Chinese threats?” inside China get their relevant WeChat messages deleted and a stern warning from the officials about bringing up “recently forbidden content”….
But, there is also simply option “#1.5”, between #1 and #2 — Pelosi’s plane originally flies normally as if intending to land in Taiwan (so the trip is not originally “canceled” as in option #1), but then her US fighter entourage encounters Chinese aircraft and warnings from ground control and the US decides to “change course” and simply just go to some other Asian country instead (i.e., the other destinations of her little “trip”). This is a boon for both the establishment US media to poke at / reprimand China as well as for the Chinese media to beat their chests saying “Our vast and military forces successfully prevented Pelosi’s landing!”
James K says
Forgot to mention — there’s always “option #6”, Nancy keep constantly postponing her trip later and later, constantly teasing and goading the Chinese to keep churning and playing their propaganda about her “blasphemous visit” she keeps (falsely) “intending” on making.
Makes for a fun kids’ little poking game for the Democrats towards China aka “Nana naha hee hee hee!! I’m ”’not touching”’ you!!!”
But jokes aside, option #6 is probably the best option for the establishment media, always giving them a story or two to run about “China becoming increasingly hostile” over time to likely “punish” China over its continuing support for “enemies of NATO” so far (not that China itself cares about US media)…
James K says
According to the latest news, the winner is “option #2” — congratulations Larry!!
Bill Wade says
I was wrong, Pelosi is in Taiwan, what’s next?
James K says
Well it’s a little too trigger-happy for a superpower like China to do anything major (geopolitically) over something that can simply be accomplished virtually over Zoom anyway lol
At this point it looks like China is going to lose face. Its hard to imagine them basically responding with what amounts to as an expensive fireworks display.
James K says
Well it’s a little too trigger-happy for a superpower like China to do anything major (geopolitically) over something (e.g., a meeting) that can simply be accomplished virtually over Zoom anyway.
Also China doesn’t care about “face” lol any Chinese citizens’ claims regarding its “lackluster response” will simply be scrubbed from WeChat with any “claimants” given a stern warning over posting “recently forbidden thoughts/content” //
What really fascinates me is how Pelosi’s trip is seen as a victory in some kind of a competition. And, yes, MSM will gloat about it. As they gloat about the victory of Ukrainians…. What is really worrying is this blanket propaganda everywhere. Larry, thank you for your site. I have grown up in the socialist state – and we all knew that media lied, in the West, this is simply missed. As for China, I think we will see the ‘answer’ soon enough, and it is not going to be kind to the USA.
BTW – a nice discussion is on RT
Imho We are still playing checkers, (short term planning and reactionary moves) they are playing Xiangqi. They will plan ahead to insure an incident like this does not happen again.
Pelosi Says Real Issue Is ‘I’m A Woman’
He/She will get a pass on that one (doveryay, no proveryay). No one wants to verify. /s