The General Accounting Office published a troubling study of the readiness of military aircraft that are essential to the air operations of the U.S. Army, the Navy, the Marine Corps and the Air Force:
GAO examined 49 aircraft and found that only four met their annual mission capable goal in a majority of the years from fiscal years 2011 through 2021. As shown below, 26 aircraft did not meet their annual mission capable goal in any fiscal year. The mission capable rate—the percentage of total time when the aircraft can fly and perform at least one mission—is used to assess the health and readiness of an aircraft fleet.https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217
Think about the implications of this. The United States defense budget for FY 2022 is $715 billion. This is almost two and a half times the defense budgets of China and Russia combined:
At the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress in early March, the Chinese government announced a defense budget of 1.45 trillion yuan (about $229 billion) for fiscal year 2022, which is a 7.1 percent year-on-year increase from 2021 (Xinhua, March 5).https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-2022-defense-budget-behind-the-numbers/
[Russian] defense spending from January to April totaled almost 1.6 trillion rubles ($26.4 billion), with about 500 billion rubles ($8.3 billion) of spending per month for March and April. Considering these dynamics in comparison with Moscow’s defense spending in previous years—roughly 300 billion rubles ($5 billion) per month—and the fact that the original defense budget in 2022 was 3.85 trillion rubles ($63.6 billion), the true amount for Russian defense spending in 2022 may well reach as much as 5.5 trillion rubles ($90.9 billion) by the end of the year (Budget.gov.ru, May 2022).https://jamestown.org/program/russias-skyrocketing-defense-spending-2022-2023/
If you think that spending more money that China and Russia on outfitting the U.S. military buys greater capability, think again. Here is what the GAO says:
Comparing fiscal year 2011 to fiscal year 2021, the average mission capable rate for the selected aircraft has fallen for the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, to varying degrees. The average mission capable rate for the selected Army aircraft has risen.
For fiscal year 2021, GAO found that only two of the 49 aircraft examined met the service-established mission capable goal. More specifically, for fiscal year 2021, 30 aircraft were more than 10 percentage points below the mission capable goal in fiscal year 2021; and 17 aircraft were 10 percentage points or less below the mission capable goal in fiscal year 2021.
Many of the selected aircraft are facing one or more sustainment challenges, as shown below. According to program officials, these challenges have an effect on mission capable rates.https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217
It would be one thing if these problems were confined to just one class of aircraft. As the chart below shows, the “challenges” are pervasive and affect all key operational capabilities, from Air Refueling to long range bombers:
The GAO provides a more focused analysis on aircraft from the five services (i.e., Air Force, Navy, JOINT, Army and Marine Corps). It is not a pretty picture:
Let me put this into practical terms. Let us suppose the United States wants to deploy troops and equipment to Ukraine to prepare for entering the conflict to reinforce Ukriane. A key Air Force asset with that mission is the C-5M.
According to the GAO report, this aging plane (I saw one of the first ones produced as a young boy during a visit to Georgia in 1968 — the plane is 54 years old) is deficient in the following areas:
- Unexpected replacement of parts and repairs.
- Delays in depot maintenance.
- Shortage of trained maintenance personnel.
- Unscheduled maintenance.
- Diminishing manufacturing source.
- Parts obsolescence.
- Parts shortage and delay.
This means potential delays in the deployment of troops, vehicles, helicopters and artillery. If China decides to move on Taiwan then the United States military commanders are likely to be faced with the dilemma of not being able to support major military engagements in Russia and China. Which geographic region receives the priority for taking control of the usable C5s?
The United States Navy currently has 296 in “battle-force ships in inventory” but only 251 active ships in commission (The number of ships active in commission includes those that are commissioned but not battle-ready, such as the USS Constitution; and excludes most combat logistics and fleet support ships.)
According to data compiled and updated by the Navy, here is the current total of battle-force ships as of June 23, 2021.
Aircraft Carriers: 11
Surface Combatants: 115
Amphibious Warfare Ships: 31
Mine Warfare Ships: 8
Combat Logistics Ships: 29
Fleet Support: 33
Auxiliary Support: 1
Combatant Craft: 0
To put this in context — prior to the start of World War II, the United States had 790 active ships. By the end of the war, that number soared to 6084. Today’s fleet is half-the size of the U.S. fleet at the dawn of World War II. The U.S. Navy is now a carrier centered force, as I have discussed in previous posts. Its ability to project force has diminished over the last ten years as Russia and China have developed effective hypersonic missiles that can defeat the current air and missile defense systems in place ostensibly to protect the Carrier task forces from attack.
The critical difference between now and December 7, 1941 is the dramatic decline in the U.S. industrial base. After Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor, the United States built and deployed 5,294 ships–e.g., aircraft carriers, battleships and destroyers–in three years. Think about that. The United States was producing on average 147 ships a month. Today, it takes 5 to 7 years to build and deploy an aircraft carrier. In the event of a war with Russia and/or China, the United States can no longer churn out the volume of naval craft it did in World War II. Just because the ships are loaded up with more advanced technology does not automatically translate into greater combat effectiveness and longevity.
I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer. Just pointing out some uncomfortable facts that should make any officer or political leader contemplating war with Russia and China to think twice.
Jimmy Walter says
This scares me. This might imply that nuclear is the US only option. Desperate people do desperate things
Surely it should – especially since the us military doctrine in connection with this new security strategy basically says:
We flatten everything – if necessary also nuclear – which could “disturb our circles”. And we decide, when that is the case.
Well, with all those eugenicist “Sampson Option” people running your government, yeah, it doesn’t too bode well!
Yep. The only thing that the West has is the nuclear option…It has been like that for a while now.
That is what happens when you move blue-collar industry jobs to China in order to increase profits. Greed led to decisions that fundamentally affected national security.
It goes hand in hand with reserve currency hegemony, when the country can just print money Willy nilly then the physical economy is not capital efficient. Industrial economy requires more than just manufacturing, infrastructure and supply chain is a big part of it. All the dirty jobs that no one wants to do anymore.
Teodoro Jaranilla says
new here…my view only: it is often phrased by all leaders..that :”EVERYONE LOSES IN A NUCLEAR WAR”…true..it s terrifying …the world already had TWO ATOMIC (nuclear) explosions that incinerated big cities of japan…USA dropped them…imagine the power magnitudes greater …and in quantities far beyond imagination can tolerate..
but REMEMBER : the USA “started” it all…to show its “forever might” …today is just the logical result.
GOING BACK to the first paragraph…”everyone loses” …does NOT mean a MILITARY victory…despite the horrific hellish result in what is left…is not addressed directly.
in purely military terms : BECAUSE IT IS CLEAR AND HISTORICALLY EVIDENCED. ..the desperate empire USA of the West WILL be the one to start a NUCLEAR exchange…just as it DROPPED atomic bombs…for the SAME REASON…to show off that it is MASTER of the universe…
IT IS RUSSIA that will win…EVEN CHINA will win…SEPARATELY…and both against USA…? forget it..the asian giants WILL level the entire USA…even before USA ICBMS fly one quarter over the oceans from USA Borders…with PLENTY of time to shoot them down….by Russia or china…
YES , the aftermath will be HELL…but MUCH of the exchange will be between the USA / EUROPE ……and CHINA / RUSSIA…africa southern asia , south america…
there will be TIME NOR RESOURCES for NORTH AMERICA/EUROPE to WASTE “missiles ” on THOSE continents…
therefore in EXCHANGES BETWEEN USA and RUSSIA…RUSSIA will win…well before the USA icbm s cross the atlantic or pacific …the USA WILL BY THEN…BE A RADIOACTIVE wasteland…DROWNED in COBALT TSUNAMIS…
WHAT IS NOT directly blown away…will — as nature always dictates…will ”ADJUST”
but …there will be NO USA…NO EUROPE…NO WEST..RUSSIA AND CHINA …will continue to exist and recover…for the different future…BECAUSE OF WHAT THE USA STARTED….
The problem there is the Russians have nuclear superiority; in number, modernization, and delivery. Delivery at least for tactical, with hypersonic capability.
Perhaps the US have some great space based defense but the Russians can create radioactive tidal waves on both coasts of the US.
No such thing as nuclear superiority. Just MAD. Unless the instructions to fire i.e. command chain taken out and launch sites destroyed everyone dies it suffers.
There has to be a better way to decide conflicts than this madness, the old honourable way… arm wrestling, sumo wrestling, eating competition. No way Putin can eat more ice cream than Biden or throw more hoops than Obama, so that versus shirtless bear riding competition. Get those moobs out gentlemen, shake it down, let the games begin..
Big Balinese Wheel Money says
“There has to be a better way to decide conflicts than this madness, the old honourable way… arm wrestling, sumo wrestling, eating competition.”
If you think our planes are shit shape, look at all the walking co-morbidities of which our geriatric “leader” caste is composed. It would have to be a “last one to survive walking down the stairs” competition for the US to have any hope, though Piglosi could probably rival any Russkie in a vodka swilling contest.
Mad Dog says
Jimmy is right. When all you have is a hammer…
Under W, the neocons replaced MAD with preemptive,”decapitation” nuke strike on Kremlin. The self-appointed “geniuses” believe that then Russia will immediately surrender.
Under Obama, some tech advance (new type of “fuze” for nukes) locked that in as our “defense” strategy.
Apparently it didn’t occur to these “geniuses” that Russia might not lose all its leaders & generals in that strike. Or that Russia might learn of that strategy & respond by developing a “dead man switch” that launches retaliatory hypersonic nukes at strategic US targets that wipe us completely off the map.
MAD has bern replaced with Suicide.
“MAD has bern replaced with Suicide.”
Yes by the 1970’s and why “Star Wars” in the 1980’s; known to some as suicide by other means, when you wish upon a star, makes no difference who you are, and in the 1970’s they relied on the alchemy of rendering gold into paper and more “colour revolutions” in “our backyard” – the Condor years refer – in hope that happiness is a warm gun, and in the 1990’s sought to evangelise “We won the Cold War”.
Levels of dependence on the beliefs and hopes of others has been a facilitator of “The United States of America” since 1620 and hence why there are too many chiefs and not enough Indians, and the contents of many “comments” on blogs.
It implies nothing of the sort. Nuclear use is not an option since you invite a similar response. Do you understand what effects Nuclear weapons have????? They are a deterrent weapon.
Nuclear is not an option either. Russian air defense systems (from late model S300s to S400s and S500s are so effective that they can take out just about anything we can throw at them, including MIRVed ICBMs and hypersonic missiles, and oh yes, all of our satellite capability. Meanwhile, our carrier groups have no defense against their proved hypersonic missile. The Russians are generations ahead of the hollowed out US military, which is now nothing but a paper tiger.
“Desperate people do desperate things”
That was the hope of “The United States of America” for the folks back home who were always subject to the targeting by virtue of MAD, ergo MAD “strategy” of “The United States of America” always had an “internal” aspect.
It was the population of “The United States of America” whom were “encouraged” to acquiesce through fear, since from 1949 onwards nuclear weapons were held to be only weapons of retaliation by “The Soviet Union” and The Russian Federation – there was neither a missile gap nor “Star Wars” which was a cover under which surveillance from space systems were placed, other aspects being off-shored to television and “the movies” which in content didn’t move far.
Dalton Greenlee says
Mr. Johnson, you have to realize by now that the US military is probably the most corrupt military on the planet. Just like the US government is the most corrupt on the planet. The US military is not there to win wars, but to keep the wars going for as long as possible. So that defense contractors, weapons manufacturers, lobbyists, politicians and the rest of the Military Industrial Complex can make as much money as possible. I mean, look at Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine. Just as Smedley Butler has said in the past and Julian Assange has said more recently. Your thoughts?
Paul Meli says
Yep. Everything is like Boeing now…
Dalton, you have nailed it! I’m with you on Smedley Butler.
Why did German Chancellor Scholz go to China recently? We hear that he made the usual politically-correct noises about “human rights” and Ukraine, but he didn’t have to go to China with a cohort of German business people to do that. He could have sent a tweet from home if that was his purpose.
Moving of industry to low wage nations didn’t happen as much in Europe because of the strong unions who have much more influence over their governments than in America. So how to fix that problem for the upper class business elites who want to move industry in Europe to low wage nations?
One theory is:
Make people believe that there is an energy crisis which leaves them no choice but to move their factories to lower wage nations.
How do you create an energy crisis that is so bad that they are able to get away with that?
1. Create the idea in people’s minds that the climate crisis is so dire that the end of the world is nigh — unless we stop using fossil fuels immediately.
2. Create the idea in people’s heads that nuclear power is also very unsafe.
3. Convince the people that “green energy” can easily take the place of fossil fuels and nuclear power.
4. Create in people’s minds the idea that it is very politically-incorrect to keep importing your only source of cheap fossil fuels — that coincidentally is needed for European industry to be economically competitive on the world market.
5. European industry then has no choice but to leave Europe because they can no longer be profitable because green energy is not ready to replace fossil fuels — and reverting to fossil fuels of course is non-negotiable because they are going to destroy the world any day now. Look at all the kids gluing themselves to roads, paintings, etc., with the museums and police letting them. Fear of climate change is being pushed by power at the highest levels.
6. Which just so happens to align with the business elites in America who outsource like mad.
An interesting if overly gloomy perspective on Scholz’s visit to China.
i like saker but what he here wrote is simple only not true
i am living in germany and it starts with that germany doesnt build own airplanes. airbus is an european company and germany produce parts of it (a part of these airplanes model are building in a factory in hamburg where i live)
also others from saker words are not like he wrote. of course we get too less babys but the is a problem from the most countrys here.
for me it sounds that scholz visit china to try to safe the german economy and maybe a try to set us free from the usa. sometimes it sounds that scholz and macron wake up about what the usa do and what price we in europe pay…..i hope so
For instance, the Eurofighter combat aircraft is not assembled in Germany either … they only produce parts of the fuselage …
The visit of German Chancellor Mr Scholz to China may be connected to Hamburg and Cosco:
Hence the anger of German Foreign Minister Ms Baerbock and her absence on that trip.
According to UK’s The Mirror, Alexander Dugin wants Putin toppled, which means only one thing: the West will assasinate him (Dugin) and blame it to Putin.
Robert M. Peters says
The assertion of The Mirror is false if not an outright lie. Dugin has come out to say that although he has some disagreements, he and the Russian people stand firmly behind President Putin. This lie does appear to be a Western set up: kill Mr. Dugin and blame Putin in the hope that the radical 6th column will act against President Putin.
And with all this Kherson retreat, nobody seems to have noticed the dollar just crumbled last week.
I noticed. A whole lot of pain coming people. Things are about to get out of control.
Buying frenzy from big cos and billionaires coming, firing frenzy and savings bonfire.
I used to think those smelly dudes in tin can hats prepping for end of the world were nuts. Now I am.looking to get some chicken and grow veg and defend the home. It can still turn around but it’s getting sticky and people are suffering. Sovereign default risks up, corporate bond default risks up, bankruptcy up, crime up…
Taras 77 says
This from Saker’s latest post:
And there will be hell to pay down the road for folks like, say, Dugin, who are now committing actions which would have them shot for treason during WWII. Well, at least now I hope that the “Dugin is Putin’s advisor” canard has been finally buried.
“This from Saker’s latest post:”
“Game theory” was facilitated by an immigrant trying to make his way in a strange land.
Mr. Saker’s blog was facilitated in similar context and in emulation to Mr. von Neuman’s sleight of hand, confirming to some that “The United States of America” is a land of opportunity for salesmen, and Mr. Rove’s observation that – “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you should concentrate on.”
The above is not based on liking or not liking, but on analysis which aided the facilitation of useful foolery of some – a useful raw datastream from the Saker’s blog February 2014 until July 2014; not the “moderated version of his books” – which aided the facilitation of “annexing” Crimea with no causalties through causality.
Why does western media keep talking up Dugin anyway? Until his daughter was sadly murdered he was apparently not well known in Russia. He is clearly not some form of power broker there. Quite apart from the fact that pretty much anything written in UK corporate media about Russia or Ukraine or Iran (or pretty much anything …LOL…) is usually 100% lies to start with.
The Mirror is even poor as toilet paper like all the UK newspapers.
Michael Colbert says
quote. ‘I am not trying to be a Debbie Downer. Just pointing out some uncomfortable facts that should make any officer or political leader contemplating war with Russia and China to think twice.’
or at least once….
just saying says
Nope. They are not paid to think.
Larry, thanks for highlighting the readiness point. It is a shame that it is not being shouted from the rooftops (by the media or congress or someone other than POGO).
I propose there are three factors:
1. Inability to follow maintenance schedules
2. Insufficient trained personnel (many left to avoid the covid Vaxx) to maintain assets
3. Lack of spare parts /ability of the supply chain to provide correct (milspec) replacements.
All of these factors worsen significantly in the case of a war, particularly at the end of a 7000 mile supply chain.
For those among us not old enough to catch the reference to pogo, here is an explanation.
Pogo was a long-running comic strip in newspapers (comic strips, newspapers…huh?). A famous thought was articulated by one of its characters, namely, “We have met the enemy, and it is US”.
This is an insight that has only gotten more descriptive of reality with each passing year here in Idiot America.
Is it about winning it or doing what is right now, sowing enough chaos to continue to provide leadership? Who will fight again? The others, anyway the Chinese who are traders will quickly go to bed; they’ve already gone to bed with Pelosi’s visit, nobody wants to die anymore when they can eat MC Do, drink Red bull, smoke cannabis… and the children of the Chinese middle classes are in this case.
On the other side, A Russian land has been abandoned, Russian political power is wavering anyway because the city will never be taken back – all the antics and leondine calculations show that in the end; it’s a defeat – in good order – major – sorry but OTAN win with the blood of other one.
Since Russia makes weapons to win wars and the USA makes them to make money for private firms, it is not surprising that the USA spends a lot more, to attain a much less effective result. Another point is the US weapons are much more intricate, delicate and require much more maintenance and specialized manpower. All of this reduces their effectiveness if they do happen to arrive in a warzone.
“United States built and deployed 5,294 ships–e.g., aircraft carriers, battleships and destroyers–in three years.”
And 300,000 airplanes, 193,000 artillery pieces, 86,000 tanks, two million Army trucks, and on, and on, and on.
That’s why I am a New Dealer Larry. As far as I’m concerned, the New Deal didn’t start until Dec 8, 1941; all that went before it was of necessity, simply hodge podge neo-liberal workarounds.
You do not have to fight a war, or build millions of military machines that you are going to almost entirely scap a few years after the conflict has ended, you could build other things instead, things more permanent, like 40,000 kilometers of high speed rail in 10 years, 180,000 kilometers of superhighway in 20 years, erect bridges at pace of around 50,000 per year, and start remaking your both your cities and your megacities so that they wouldn’t look out of place in Jetson’s episode, you could do all that and more, like China does.
From December 7, 1941 until September 2, 1945, we were just like modern day China, we were a nation-state functioning as a nation-state, and we were magnificent.
Thanks for the perspective, and the reminder. There is a reason why economists DON’T STUDY WWII, because they’d all be out of job if they did so.
Barry Sheridan says
Good to be reminded of how American industry created the tools to win during WW2, truly the arsenal of democracy when that word was a hopeful one. Alas like much else in the collective west, it has become corrupted.
Russia won WWII, not the Johnny come lately scheming, sneaky USA.
The US etc faced only 10 – 15% of the Axis forces.
Another deluded yank Hoorah!
Industrialization on that order? Are you mad, man? Think about The Klimate Krisis!!! We’re all gonna die!!!
Gaia, in the form of that autistic, hectoring Swedish teenager, Greta “How Dare You!” Thunberg will be really, really pissed at you.
T. Martin says
Liberally iterpreting von Clauswitz; if war is an enterprise conducted by a national state, three components would be useful to have in place for ‘success’: 1) a clearly defined objective; 2) a cost to achieve the objective, & 3) a willingness to bear the cost by the people of the state waging the war. The US has enough firepower to do a lot of damage, but without #1,#2, & #3, the result of any attempted war would be a Viet Nam, an Iraq, an Afghanistan so on and so forth. To attempt an offensive war against an opponent capable of retailiating effectively would be suicidal given a track record of failure with countries that had no capability of retailiating. Even to an ‘arm chair’ expert like myself, to start a war without #1,#2, & #3 in place before hand, predicts eventual failure.
This is why the US has had to rely solely on proxy forces since the mid 2000s as in Iraq to achieve its geopolitical ends. To date, Ukraine has been its biggest experiment in molding a high-intensity proxy army and look what that has got them. At this juncture, the only thing that remains for the US will be to enter the fray directly and be utterly humiliated by Russia who is on a full 24/7 war economy. If there are any sane heads left in the Pentagon, they might urge the politicos in Washington to de-escalate and desist, knowing full well what could await them.
Rod Rhodes says
A couple of questions if I may Mr Johnson.
Do you think the reason for the 101st Airborne deployment might be to extract ‘advisers’, spooks, ‘volunteers’ etc. if a winter action by Russia turns into a fiasco for the US? I presume an airborne outfit has lots of helicopters suitable to the job, and to be glib for a phrase, for the now traditional news photo of a chopper over the embassy.
Is it possible that Russia wildly under reported the size of their mobilization? Would intelligence be able to see the difference between 300,000 and twice that many troops moving all around, hugging goodbye, train loads of tanks etc. if indeed they were even looking carefully.
Thanks for all you do, and for any thought you might give the above,
General Mark A. Milley in his own words:
On China (see page 6, last paragraph):
“The PRC has thousands of ground-launched theater-range missiles in its arsenal that would be difficult for the U.S. to counter given its current inventories …” (note the keyword “inventories”) …
On hypersonic technology (see page 7, first paragrah):
“This technology is going to continue to be developed by our adversaries and the means and mechanisms for delivery will be varied and difficult to detect and defeat. At the very core of this technology is a speed that is almost unbeatable. It is for this reason that we must invest in this technology. Hypersonics are a suite of capabilities that provide transformational warfighting capability to our Joint Force …” (note the keyword “invest”) …
Krzysztof Mróź says
Rzecz w tym, że Rosja ma słabe uzbrojenie o kilka klas gorsze niż Nato. Pokazuje to Ukraina
Both US and Europe are sending old equipment to Ukraine:
Да, конечно ))
Кинжалы, гиперзвук, самолеты поколений 4++ и 5, это прошлый век, Польша выше этого и технологичнее.
Поляки перемещаются на космолетах (собственного производства), стреляют бластерами собственной разработки.
Рассуждения о России делаются, насколько вижу по “инфо” из телевизора, заботливо скармливаемой США/англией своим гражданам и гражданам стран-лакеев.
Вангую будущее: в очередной раз Европу стравят с Россией (это уже),
многие евространы, пойдут под нож, в первую очередь – Польша (расплата за амбиции протухшего имперства и русофобию)
России это не нужно, но…
“Раз в 100 лет Европа собирается и идет воевать с Россией, чтобы круто получить по морде”
Поляки! Этот конфликт может стать последним, особенно для Польши.
Необоснованные амбиции часто подводят эту страну.
Вас просто разыграют ваши англосаксонские хозяева, пустят под нож.
И – попробуйте обоснованно сформулировать, чем вызвана ваша ненависть к России, какими комплексами.
Возможно, они лечатся психиатрией
This is really old news! Many courageous independent pundits have been making these accusations for years. The Pentagon/MIC relationship has created a 10-headed hydra that has only benefited the majority shareholders of US defense firms and even foreign ones of late such as BAE, Elbit Systems, and Leonardo just to name a few.
To hear all those arm-chair warriors boasting about how the US has such “superior” aircraft as the likes of the F-22, little do they know that they are nearly all grounded except for a scant few. It was even referred to as the “widow-maker” by its pilots!! So, what difference will they make in an eventual confrontation against Russia??
Your article is spot on.
Of course, these failures in availability are versus the targets that the services set. Those targets are themselves pretty low with 50% being seen as high for any individual airplane. No commercial airline could run with such targets and their craft are quite sophisticated too so the argument about high end technology does not wash.
As other comments say, the military industrial complex is a giant money go round exercise that funds defence companies, their executives, political donations to both parties from the same sources and then enables lots of well heeled think tank and senior military careers. Defending the country is quite low down on the list of priorities. Creating for ever wars that other people in other countries end up dying for seems quite a high priority though.
I wonder how much of that two and a half times the budget of Russia and China combined that the US military spends ends up in the pockets of Hunter Biden, et al. via the Ukrainian laundry machine.
Sgt. Based says
Most of it just ends up.in a big vault at Raytheon headquarters for the executives to swim around in like scrooge mcduck
Obiously, not enough. Because now DEM party is running cryptocurrencies market (FTX/Alameda). P – priorities 😀
German industry would be fools not to relocate to Russia where the cost of energy is dirt cheap and the availability is totally unencombered by punitive western political sanctions. The future of German industry lies to the east in Russia and China
Yeah, Right says
Incorrect. The future of German industry lies in ruins.
The USA is determined that Germany should become dependent on overpriced US LNG, and they will not take “NO” for an answer.
Washington will certainly blow up any attempt at restoring the Nord Stream pipeline, and will certainly sanction to death any German industries that attempt to relocate to Russia. Or to China. The fate of Germany is to be de-industrialized.
The fate of Europe (including Germany, but not restricted to them) is to become a locked-in market for American goods and services, which requires the elimination of any domestic (or foreign) competition.
Think of India during the time of the British Raj,
India was the Jewel in the Crown of the British Empire, because it could both have its resources stripped and shipped back to London while also being a huge (and guaranteed, competitors need not apply) market for goods exported from Britain.
Win-Win as far as the British were concerned.
Washington is planning the same fate for Europe.
Assiem Mittal says
You are absolutely right. That is the whole purpose of having colonies! Btw did you that when the British were kicked out of India they started stripping Malaysia of whatever they could get? The seed capital for NHS came from there!
> The USA is determined that Germany should become dependent on overpriced US LNG
you are big optimist
USA *pretends* determined to make Germany softer, yet USA does precious little to build ships and facilities to transport enough of LNG to substitute for Russian pipegas
the actual goal of USA seems to be just stripping Germany of gas and killing their industries and EU influence off unconditionally
And how will they export anything, given sanctions.
Yeah, Right says
The dollar comparisons are pointless.
It would only make sense if the Russian defense budget was spent buying military equipment from the USA which, obviously, is not the case.
Ditto the Chinese: it is an exercise in pointlessness, precisely because the PLA isn’t buying any military equipment from the USA and, therefore, isn’t spending US dollars.
An obvious corollary: take the US defense budget (which is in US dollars) and convert that amount into yuan. It is easy enough to do.
Then ask how much Chinese-made military equipment that would buy the US military.
The likely answer: Around 20 Type 003 aircraft carriers. More than 10,000 J-20 stealth fighters. Probably close to 100,000 Type 99 Main Battle Tanks.
Ridiculously large amounts, certainly far more than the US military could ever use.
But everyone would accept that this would be an exercise in pointlessness: the Pentagon would not buy military equipment from China, and even if they tried the Chinese would refuse to sell.
But it is EXACTLY the same mental gymnastics that is used to evaluate the Russian military budget, and the Chinese military budget.
But the Russians buy military equipment from Russian manufacturers, and they pay for them in rubles. And the Chinese buy their military equipment from Chinese factories, and they pay for them in yuan.
In neither case do they care in the slightest what the ruble/dollar exchange rate is, or the yuan/dollar exchange rate. Nor should they, precisely because they don’t buy any military equipment using US dollars.
They don’t have to go through any foreign exchange palaver to purchase their military gear. None of their money leaves their country, so foreign exchange rates are moot points.
I have no doubt whatsoever that Chinese military hardware spending is significantly higher than US military spending.
How do I know?
Answer: because the PLAN is acquiring destroyers faster than the US Navy is. The PLA air force is acquiring fighter jets faster than the US air force is. PLA tank production is outstripping US Army tank production.
It isn’t even close.
The Chinese military is building up faster than the US military is building up, and the only way that can happen is if the Chinese military budget is bigger than the American military budget.
Playing these yuan-to-dollar games is simply an attempt at sticking heads in the sand. Or up their own ass.
Barry Sheridan says
Good points, thank you.
Godfree Roberts says
China’s GDP is $30 trillion PPP, of which 1.3%, $400 billion, is for defense.
China builds nuclear power plants for 35% of the cost in Finland or France, partly by ordering 12 units at a time and building them quickly.
China is mass producing destroyers like it does power plants. We pay $2 billion for each Arleigh Burke.
I’m guessing they’ll pay $700 million apiece for the five Type-52s currently under construction.
They’re good with money. We’re bad with money.
Godfree Roberts says
You had me right up to the end.
There’s another way the Chinese military can be building up faster than the US military is building up: engineering.
China is home to 60% of the world’s top ten engineering schools, which churn out engineers who build next-generation nuclear power plants for 30% of what France or Finland pays for last-generation stuff.
We pay $2 billion per Arleigh Burke, they pay $700 million for a more modern, better armed Type-52, by buying in bulk.
bob sykes says
China has about 8 to 10 times as many engineers and scientists as we do, and they annually graduate 12 to 15 times as many as we do. Add to that, about 30% of the graduate students in our STEM programs are Chinese citizens.
They have most of the high speed train trackage and trains in the world, and are building a very high speed maglev system. They have the most supercomputers in the world, and until last year the two fastest. They have 70% of the world’s 5G stations (all true hardware 5G, not simulated), and lead in the integration of 5G/AI in factories. They have an independent manned space program and now a space station, with 3 modules each the size of a city bus…
And then there’s Russia, with as many engineers and scientists as we have but only 40% of our population…
What purpose does all that high-speed train thingie actually serve? It’s passenger rail as far as I can tell, and when electrons in Zoom conferencing move at the speed of light, what utility is there in moving lots of people licketty-split from one air-polluted conurbation to another to have “meetings” that Dilbert so righteously skewers as dysfunctional time-sinks?
This puff piece touting HS rail makes it plain that there’s very little substance to the “benefits” claims — mostly just presumptions that it will ‘serve future growth” and “move people around faster” and somehow “reduce decongestion” (sic) and pollution (assuming energy from “green” sources/nuclear, apparently), oh, and public revenue from ticket sales (paid into privately owned “investments, how’s that work again?) and of course JAWBs like cook and steward and cleaners and train drivers (on autonomous trains?). In other words, speculative vaporware.
Far as I can see, high-speed rail is a vanity project and wealth transfer mechanism, little else.
Fitting, in a country which has financialized basic national defense into the crapfest described in the article, and failed so miserably even at the vastly destructive and ever-more-clearly-futile process of trying to create and maintain full-spectrum-dominance hegemony.
Rail is around 1000 times more efficient at moving stuff and people versus trucks/cars/planes
Then why do Americans continue to drive so much? Have you suggested to your wife (or husband) taking a zoom vacation instead of going to the beach? Please try it.
And as someone who has used zoom for business, it ain’t the same, and the competitors who are in person get the deals – a lot goes on off camera, and if you aren’t there, then you are NOT there.
Yeah, Right says
JTMcPhee the Chinese economy produces so much wealth for the government that they need to spend it on *something*. It has to be churned back in as *some* kind of investment otherwise, well, what else is it good for?
Wireless Internet everywhere. Well, sure, and if they are going to do that then it may as well be much faster than everyone else’s coz they are starting from scratch. So 5G it is.
Rail network everywhere. Well, OK, but since they are starting from scratch then it should be the fastest rail network they can create. So HSR it is.
Since they don’t have any legacy considerations then they consider making these things then there is little point constraining themselves: it should make it the best of the best of the best.
As for the “utility” of high speed rail it should be obvious: it opens up the country, and now a people who often used to spend their entire lives in one small rural village – or one dirty overcrowded metropolis – find that they have other options.
You know, all that “public good” stuff that is so often mocked but who’s “utility” is so often overlooked.
It’s China, and it’s a big place. If you want to tie it all together then you need a fast transportation system.
And I would add that many of the best engineers in the US are Chinese. Many who immigrated from China.
Or indian or Russian.
International non-Western STEM students are often put-head-down types. They’ll work and not cause a scene here because they’re all threatened with work visa denials and such but it’s also a cultural thing coming from countries where merit was the norm. The worst ones aren’t able to make it abroad unless they’re rich so we get the brightest and best on loan or a little bit. As is the case, they are exploited and often churned through after a few years for a new crop. Businesses are short-sighted like that. I’d say the efficiency equivalent of at least two similar Americans who in essence will cost 3-4 times more. And also complain a lot more and probably not work most days seeing what comes out of the academy now.
The brain drain is actually happening here, trying to cobble together bits from many half-witted sources. Everyone wants to be a loser manager type and no one capable of doing the actual work.
I agree with your thesis but perhaps that is Larry’s point. The US defense industry is highly bloated and inefficient. You could problem get rid of 2/3 of the workforce and end up with a better product. It is effectively just another government make work program designed to funnel government funds out into the economy.
I read somewhere that due to the corruption in the governement system, the Militairy equipment bought is 30% overpriced. Even of bad quality.
More like 10 times overpriced
Why, if the US military is so incapable, neither Russia nor China dare at least to tweak the US anywhere? Why do they just accept the US interference everywhere in the world, even just in front of their territory? Is this all just because of a fear of nuclear war? Is it a believe that time will help to bring down the US?
I don’t understand that hesitation.
Yeah, Right says
“Why, if the US military is so incapable, neither Russia nor China dare at least to tweak the US anywhere?”
Because when the USA is provoked it goes batshit-crazy, which is never an appealing prospect to anyone.
You may as well ask why nobody would cross the road to pick a fight with an obvious psycho.
It wouldn’t matter if you think you could take them down in a fight: it makes no sense instigating that fight in the first place because, du’oh, the dude is batshit-crazy.
“Why do they just accept the US interference everywhere in the world, even just in front of their territory?”
You fell asleep on 23rd February 2022 and haven’t caught up with events that have transpired since then. Correct?
“Is this all just because of a fear of nuclear war?”
Think of it this way: the USA is now a clown-car. Its behavior is unpredictable, to the point of being downright dangerous to all and sundry.
The best option is to attempt to stay out of its path as it careers about.
Tricky, of course, because a clown-car is notoriously unpredictable.
“Is it a believe that time will help to bring down the US?”
Pretty sure that anyone who isn’t a Washington neocon or an American oligarch can see that the USA clown-car is going to end up going over a cliff.
Again, the trick is to stay out of the path as it careers towards that precipice. The clowns behind the wheel will do the rest. The worse choice is to attract the attention of the clowns who are behind the wheel.
Because, you know, they are clowns. And clowns aren’t rational.
“I don’t understand that hesitation.”
Well, there’s just no helping some people.
Chicago Bob says
That is a perfect analogy.
Holly Champaign says
Agreed. Excellent points.
Add to that, the best time to intercede, with a crazy-driven clown car, is when it has expended all of it’s resources, of which we are doing a bang-up job.
The crazy times ahead are when everyone knows the US federal government is the elderly fat wizard behind the curtain. Then it won’t be WWIII but The Second US Civil War, as the elite have successfully created a very divided populace who’ve been primed to take vengeance on the opposing side.
Dear Sir, thank you for your assessment. When, speaking in your analogy, will the cliff come?
Slowly, then all at once…
LOL just like insolvency.
Yeah, Right says
It’s a clown-car, Rolan. By definition it is driven by clowns, not by rational people.
It could have a wheel go over the edge only to pull back – Hoot Hoot – and then start heading back to safety before – Honk Honk – it does an abrupt u-turn and heads back towards the precipice only to stop and go full reverse before the gears grind away and it shoots forward again.
There is no telling how many times that whacky routine will repeat itself.
But eventually it all goes tits-up and the clowns plummet to their doom.
After which everyone will peer over the edge at the still-smoking wreckage below and say “well, gosh, gotta’ say I saw that coming a mile away”.
When? No idea. But unless someone sensible empties the car of those clowns then that it the inevitable result.
Isaac Nussbaum says
I expect that kind of snarkiness over at YouTube, YEAH, RIGHT. Here? Not so much.
Jack Shitlord says
Keep in mind it’s now not a question of if but when. And when is getting very close. All you can do is be prepared for the inevitable because no one is coming to save you “when” arrives.
bob sykes says
For one, the stated goal of the CPC is to raise the remaining 600 million poor Chinese to the same middle class life style of the other 800 million. That requires a generation of peace, which evidently the US government is not willing to give them.
Oh Sangjin says
Strategically speaking, “accepting US interference,” as long as it doesn’t cross red-lines, is the same as “letting your enemy hang themselves.”
What looks like “not daring to tweak” could in fact be the strategic endurance necessary to allow an enemy to right fully fuck himself, which it looks very much like the US is in the process of doing.
Sunzi, my friend:
“To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
Yeah, Right says
One important point to note about the US Navy being a carrier-centric force (which it is) is that each one of those eleven carriers soaks up a large number of those destroyers and submarines as escort vessels.
At least one nuclear attack submarine always accompanies a carrier group. At least three to four destroyers. Perhaps more.
Which is fine if the carrier is a go-to, war-winning behemoth.
Not so good if it is a white-elephant that has to be kept well away from Russian or Chinese shores lest it be taken out by a hypersonic missile.
Because… think about it: if that threat of hypersonic missiles neuters the effectiveness of the carrier then it ALSO means that its escorting submarines and destroyers are also engaging in a pointless exercise.
It would lead to a farcical situation i.e. the main contribution a US nuclear aircraft carrier can perform is to stay in port. At least that way this would free up all those destroyers and submarines to actually do something useful.
The Pentagon has proved incapable of prevailing against all military opponents over the last 77 years.
You have forgotten all about Grenada, oh what a magnificent victory.
Some time ago, Andrei Martyanov had a brilliant analysis comparing defence spending in the USA and Russia to show how money spent is irrelevant to the quality of arm manufacture and how it is captured by MIC money making. I wish I remembered when he wrote it. It would be a great accompanying piece to your analysis. Thank you, Larry!
Reality: only true deterrence are those nuclear submarines……but the opposing sides also have some submarines ready to nuke USA as well. In a scenario where half to 2/3 of tall the carrier groups are taken out, that leaves only the nuclear option. But if USA is the aggressor, who can you blame for the downfall except for the parasitic class in DC w/ their unrealistic ideas and corrupted/warped sense of reality….
Assiem Mittal says
Thanks for all you fantastic analysis Larry! One thing I just don’t understand is why Russia does not make it crystal clear to Ukraine that bombing civilians eg. Donetsk will have costs. 1 shelling in Donbass against civilians will be 20 against Kiev! Then the Ukrainian population would have stopped it long ago! The other question is the lack of retaliation against strong provocations, NS etc. It makes Russia look extremely week in many people’s eyes.
Иван Пьётр says
> will be 20 against Kiev
We simply can’t. Совесть will torture us to the end of life.
Of all of us, only Donetsk (or any other constantly shelled city) people have a moral right for that, but we hold them fast with their arms pinned to their sides. They’ll thank us later.
Michael Droy says
We don’t seem to have any idea of what the Mission Capable Goal is.
I followed the link and skimmed the big report, but other than it being a %-age and being set for each individual aircraft & force combination, I didn’t find any levels.
Obviously missing a 95% target is different from missing a 50% target.
Still I think you’ve drawn the right conclusions.
Full marks to the GAO for making the report public. Makes me wonder just how many times this report has been made available internally and nothing done. The GAO seems to care more about the US Military than Politicians or the Military itself.
Assiem Mittal says
You are absolutely right. That is the whole purpose of having colonies! Btw did you that when the British were kicked out of India they started stripping Malaysia of whatever they could get? The seed capital for NHS came from there!
k. talaat says
It was recognized in Syria that the Russians matched the same hours of flight time and sorties to that of the Americans with half the aircraft. This was a revelation, it meant that the Russians had a force multiplier of two based only on the efficiency of their equipment.
We are being ripped off folks at every turn by the MIC.
Good grief. So ones options are learn to speak Chinese or Russian. Or when the boom comes walk toward the light. Most sheep will choose option 1 due to the fact that when told to jab up for safety they did. They managed to ram 2 into me. Anyone else feel like a chump yet? No? I have a Blackrock Russian ETF to sell you.
“They managed to ram 2 into me”
Nah, you allowed it due to either gullibility, craven weak compliance, stupidity or a combination of two or three of these. Dead man walking!
DoD inventories sent to Ukraine:
This is the wrong question. The correct question is – does USA need to go into a conventional war with anyone.
The answer is no. USA learned a lesson in Vietnam – only pick a certain outcome. Afganistan was the missing piece – the place they learned how to figure out what is a certain outcome – and they did it after the fact (the mistake had been made).
I think the new policy for USA is like this: use proxies everywhere, only fight weaker opponents where you are certain you can win and keep refining the algorithm to decide how to identify risk of losing and keep arming yourself just in case (keep feeding the MIC) and to project power via threat of possible confrontation with the “mighty” USA.
With this approach you don’t need to ever go to a conventional war with a strong opponent.
The above is built on the basic premise – that the population of this country is less and less interested in fighting a direct war and that there are less and less people physically capable to being soldiers, unless you want the ranks of your infantry to be filled with immigrants from Latin America who only serve in the infantry in exchange for a passport. If you take a realistic look around – diabetes, obesity, drugs, lack of interest, anti-depressants, prisons full of able bodied males etc. etc. – all spell trouble for military capacity. Obvious solution is use proxies and high tech and carefully choose who you fight.
But this strategy sounds like a ratchet, a one way street going off the cliff.
Once in a while USA would have a “proxy war” of some their colony against their rival.
Since USA rivals would not preclude immediate, direct participation in the fight, which USA would preclude for themselves, it seems the rivals have the upper hand, they can overwhelm the american colony and “throw it against the wall”.
Such wars would not be often, and noe every sucvh war would end in America’s loss always.
But once it did – there would hardly be a way to reverse it.
Colony by colony, USA would be pushed back to her continent.
However this is at odds with “keep feeding the MIC” part. American MIC is getting exponentially greedy, runaway geometric progression. The whole world is no more enough to feed USA MIC today. Much less so USA alone can do it.
The strategy you outlines sounds a slow, controlled but continuous shrinking, while USA MIC requires everfaster uncontrolled growth. USA gets between a rock and a hard place.
If you noticed, my basic premise is that fighting a large war that is non-existential is costly in lives and everything else (as Russians are finding out). Also, in USA there are not enough men to fight – low testosterone, diabetes, obesity, low IQ, jails are full, so on and so on. Hence, strategy has to shift to using others, which it has. You can still make the weapons and sell them (feed the MIC) to your proxies.
You can’t compare numbers without comparing the capabilities of items produced.
What is the level technical sophistication and capability of a modern carrier battle group compared to that of 80 years ago ?
Alex Thrace says
Yeas but look at Raytheon et al, stock performance. Stellar.
Larry, are you following the FTX debacle?
I myself was wondering what use money would be to Ukraine. It seems that they cash, $40 billion or so was put into FTX. Then laundered right back to US, specifically massive contributions to Democrats and the DNC, with $billions “missing”.
10% for the Big Guy?
No doubt Merrick Garland will be right on it.
Jorge Nunes says
There will be no nuclear war because it means the end of humanity. Nobody will gain from this. About the risk of a civil war in the United States of America, the probability is higher. These last legislative elections in America revealed that electoral fraud continues to occur, through electronic voting. I do not believe that the disastrous administration of Joe Biden would win these elections. Only through organized electoral fraud. If they continue to do so, the risk of angering Republican voters is greater, as is the risk of taking up arms and resolving this conflict by violence.
James Owen says
The Russians are gonna win in Ukraine. The U.S. won’t and can’t do anything about it. When it happens, all of the pundits, and all of the news talking heads will shut up about it, and act as if it never happened. Then we’ll be bombarded with the latest celebrity gossip/scandal/news and ball game reports.
The same thing goes for Taiwan. Which will simply, and peacefully rejoin China, without a shot being fired. Taiwan already has rejoined China, in many ways, except officially. The Chinese are just going to annoy and aggravate the museum pieces that govern the formerly United States, with fake sabre rattling, until they finally die in office and are replaced by dimwits like Casio Keyboard and the young and dumb Marxist league.
It’s not the rest of the world’s fault that the United States® is still living in the 19th and 20th Centuries. And is still at war with nations that no longer exist, and will never exist again.
Jams O'Donnell says
There is no ‘Marxist League’ in the US – this is just a figment of an overheated imagination, fed by a constant stream of anti-Marxist and anti-Socialist propaganda from the US state directed to people who wouldn’t recognise a word written by Marx even if was signed and notarised.
(Similarly, the ‘Democratic’ party is not ‘left’. It is a Neo-Liberal Capitalist party, very similar in all important respects to the Neo-Conservative Republican Capitalist party).
Please Larry don’t be a Debbie Downer! If you join the tranny parade, I’d be very disheartened!
This United States of America has one of the most incompetent government on the planet. First they allow the majority of our manufacturing capability (and know how) to be offshored to China. Now that China is strong and we are heavily dependent on China, we start picking a fight with them. Instead of solving our manifold social and educational problems at home, we let them fester, import a bunch of third worlders to magnify the problems and then go galivant around the globe starting wars and lecturing countries on how to behave. If it wasn’t so sad, it would be funny.
Alex Thrace says
Of course the obvious solution is for the US to stop meddling in other people’s affairs, close the foreign bases, mind our own business, fire pretty much everyone with more than 2 stars, then concentrate and making sure the country has adequate defense. Then, outlaw Cost-Plus contracts, I’d even outlaw “defense ” contractor from making political contributions, but good luck passing THAT through congress.
One big problem the US has is that it has very little in the way of actual “defense ” the Pentagon is mostly focused on offensive operations.
The US cannot defend itself from the latest Russian and Chinese hypersonic, apart from a retaliatory strike there is nothing and the problem with that is Russia DOESZ HAVE defensive capabilities.
The Pentagon is so incompetent that the Department of Defense [sic] couldn’t even defend its own headquarters on 9-11!!
I think there is no fixing it at this stage of the game. I see the whole thing collapsing in on itself.
I have heard it said here that Ukraine is the most corrupt country in the world, the US: “hold my beer”.
Excellent point about firing those above two-star. Somone (Col. Macgregor?) observed that at the beginning of the Iraq conflict the Pentagon had 7 four-stars; it now has 40.
I rarely view Crossfire on RT, but tuned in while McGovern and a guest from France were on with author/journalist Daniel Lazare. Lazare observed, “Ware is a tear in the fabric of legality.” Yes, at least in the context of the mostly ignored “Peace of Westphalia,” and idea most loudly trumpeted by The Middle Kingdom for obvious reasons that they do not want us or anybody monking with their Tibetans, Tiwanese, FalonGong, or Uighurs.
To my ignorant eyes, it looks like the U.S. “CONGRESSIONAL military industrial complex” (Eisenhower’s original term in his first-draft) deem warfare to be our daily bread, at the expense of Uncle Sam’s Guns-n-Butter.
Andrei Martyanov observed that Russia does not allow defense companies to propose wild WunderWaffen and wowzer the Duma into pouring billions into F-35-type projects. Instead, it identifies strategic objectives (what a CONCEPT!) and derives general descriptions of military capabilities that would be necessary to fulfill each strategic element.
So does that sound to a reversion to a command economy? Well, if defense is vital to the Republic, then why would the Republic not command industry to manufacture what was needed rather than finicky, fragile, complex, egregiously expensive, and malfunctioning Javelins. (The report card is in, and the Javelin flunks, at least in the hands of anybody but our own soldiers and Marines.)
Does Huntington-Ingalls actually make any supertankers? Anything else besides aircraft carriers? How about General Dynamics Electric Boat? So these two are essentially government bureaus, with one of their product lines having been overcome by events in the form of Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles.
But Americans cannot even get their minds wrapped around refraining from balloting on computers whose proprietary software is unauditable and unavailable for analysis by virtue of purchase contract clauses . . . Irremediable.
not or. og. (who is blind)
Alex Thrace says
Got it. To your other points ill be brief. I’m one of Rickovers guys. I started my military adventure in the brown water Navy in VN. Events led me to either a medical discharge or something else. Nuke looks promising for the future, but The Admiral had a fine sense for doing what was practical and effective. The attitude in the early days was finely focused on the practical. As a result in my opinion the USN nuclear program in the 60’s and 70’s had no peer. The problem was designed from every aspect to be effective, safe and maimtain a level of readiness that todays bureaucracy could not even imagine.
Anyway to McGregor point, look at pics of General Eisenhower at the end of WW2, he had his stars but what 3 or ribbons?
Look at Milly. A fellow with no real accomplishment other than correct choice of the right ass to kiss. Frankly he looks ridiculous.
What passes for military leadership today is laughably pathetic.
just saying says
I am sure USS Constitution is as useful against Russian missiles as any other ship.
“The United States defense budget for FY 2022 is $715 billion. This is almost two and a half times the defense budgets of China and Russia combined:”
Remove the fraud and corruption and we wouldn’t need to constantly watch TV ads begging money for wounded warriors. The military that got them wounded could care for them. Oh yes, and we WOULD have the most mission capable military on the planet. I can dream …
Jams O'Donnell says
Why would you want “the most mission capable military on the planet”?
The USA is widely regarded throughout the world as the most dangerous entity on the planet. US forces have been used from their inception to bully, steal and land-grab illegally from others. This has to stop.
Alex Thrace says
I question those numbers because if that is the budget then how the hell could the CBO come up with $20 Trillion (with a “T”) in accounting ‘Ajustments) ?
An adjustment is like when your checking account won’t balance and you don’t want to look for that $1.27 so you just subtract it in your ledger.
Well imagine thar multiples by 20 million billion times.
It appears most of the Air Forces budget has been dedicated to the wrong priorities … hyper expensive cutting edge fighters in the age of unmanned drones? The parasite will eventually kill it’s host….the big media and fast food companies…as well as the military industrial complex are all owned by the same entities….every major traded company on earth are owned by the same secret group of shareholders and through stock exchange magic the owners of Black Rock are hidden from scrutiny. So my fear all along is a nuclear response by NATO to a very capable Russian conventional capability. The midterms fix is in….6 million more of the popular vote for the Republicans will equate to half a dozen seats maybe….so the parasites will continue to suck every drop out of the poor host….btw there is a large U.S military presence actually preparing for combat operations which is confusing. I think there will be a east and west partition of Ukraine so it is an occupational force or there will be an surprise attack against Russia’s rear. The ground and rivers will be freezing up close to the Belorussian border soon
I saw an amazing thing at the Utoober Forgotten Weapons. Guy was talking about the venerable old .50 cal machine gun. Mentioned that at the end of WWII, one manufacturer had gotten so good at making them, they sent a large quantity of USD BACK TO THE PENTAGON.
Try that one today.
And even the numbers given here in this article are misleading. You can’t assume that just because the ship is in inventory that it is 1, able to deploy combat ready, or 2, can stay deployed for an extended period of time. Take submarines for instance (an area I am familiar with from being a submarine officer during the cold war). The number given here is 68, but of that number 14 are ballistic missile submarines, meaning no way, no how would they be used as a force projection platform. The remaining number are fast attack and 4 guided missile subs (reconfigured ballistic platforms to carry tomahawks, etc.). So you are down to 52 fast attacks. Right now, a third (18) of the fast attacks are in shipyards for maintenance and repair. In fact, the US Navy has had a hell of time getting subs out of the yards (see https://news.usni.org/2022/09/21/navsea-navy-struggling-to-get-attack-subs-out-of-repairs-on-time-as-demand-increases). The boats you can send out are not going to be able to stay deployed for longer than 90 days without serious replenishment and repairs. The longer they operate, the more *hit breaks. These are nuclear boats remember and many systems CANNOT be allowed to go past maintenance due dates or the sub operate if a critical part or system is red tagged (out of service). The you have crew fatigue, which is a huge problem the Navy is facing right now and has been facing for a while. Remember the recent surface ship collisions? Poor training and fatigue. During the Cold War US Navy had 130 subs, twice the number now. And they ran those puppies to death. Fast attacks were at sea for months on end (I know, I did it). It got so bad that personnel retention numbers tanked. The Navy couldn’t man the boats, so they instituted the 50/50 home port rule, meaning a sub had to be in its home port at least 50% of the time. All of this is to say that the numbers given here are not coming close to telling the whole truth. In a hot war environment forces chew through munitions, supplies, platforms, and personnel at an alarming rate. Look at what has happened to Ukraine. Sub wise, the US is the leader in the world. But those aircraft and surface ships? Given today’s missile systems and defense platforms, they are toast. In my opinion in any shooting war with Russia or China we would get our ass seriously kicked, so much so that I feel our military leaders would have to use nukes just to preserve the few forces that would be left. Our political leaderships is seriously leading us astray. A lot of that comes from the corruption that has engulfed politics, the money, the greed, etc. A lot of it too is that most of the members of Congress have not served in the military, and those that have never got shot at. The current Congress has 91 veterans, the lowest number since WWII. Even in 1973, every 3 of 4 members in Congress were veterans. Its now down to 1 in 6. Most importantly, it has become clear that Congress and the military do not govern our readiness or even our military actions like they are supposed to. The Deep State Intelligence apparatus calls the shots.
Cold War SWO and former DEVRON staff here… concur with all. Commentary on sub availability applies across Navy, including aircraft.
Olivier Sauvage says
Corruption is legal in the US under the name of “lobbying” and “campaign contributions” and the like.
The US government is like the Catholic Church before the advent of the Reformation, the most corrupt administration, while pretending to be holier than thou as vicars of God on Earth.
Its elites lived well under delusion while it lasted, but the dream is turning into a nightmare and daylight is about to break to chase the darkness: peons and villains are threatening of picking up pitchforks, sickles and baseball bats to burn them at the stake or hang them high and dry.
This is not a military war, and this is not how the US is pursuing this ‘war’. It’s a war of proxies
The real war is economic. Attempting to coerce allies into adopting similar export and trade controls as the US does. And the best means at its disposal for accomplishing this is making China invade Taiwan. Which makes it MUCH easier to force trade and policy compliance among all its vassal states.
That is the war the US is fighting.
Juan Valdez says
I’m no military expert, so I’ll just toss out a few thoughts…
When was the last time the U.S. military went up against a non-third world foe and prevailed?
Who, exactly, is going to fight wars with Russia and China? All branches of the service are having difficulty meeting recruiting goals.
I’d like to see them try to draft the snowflake/trans generation and whip them into fighting shape! THAT would be hilarious.
I ran across this quote, which doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that we could fight the Salvation Army, much less the Russians and Chinese:
“The nation requires our army to fight and win its wars, said Major General Mark Simerly. “And for that, we have to have a high quality, DIVERSE, INCLUSIVE workforce in the army.”
What I fear is that as soon as it becomes apparent that we aren’t winning, things will escalate to the inevitable end.
I watched a very interesting documentary, “American Experience: The Bombing of Germany”
It showed the progression in thinking in WWII, where we started out with the idea of bombing only military targets and avoiding civilian areas. Well, we all know how that turned out. War has its own grim logic.
Ulf Thorsen says
For an even better, more detailed, documentary about bombing Germany during WW2. I suggest the following –
Amerika build weapons for profit and if they don’t work that’s OK because now they need to be repaired for more profit.
Russian and China build weapons to protect their soldiers and citizens.
Jim Giles says
I would not know of you if it were not for MI Spooks. Now, you have become my number one interest. I tend to agree with everything you write.
1. You don’t believe 9/11 was an inside job.
2. You are a former spy and all spies are tricky. Spies are tricksters. Spies are all about psyops, etc.
3. You might be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Any real leader’s first admonition to his followers is STRICT LEGALITY. Second, any real leader would oppose any organized demonstration, e.g., Jan. 6 protest because the leader would understand that any such demonstration would be infiltrated by FBI informants, i.e., that the demonstration is nothing more than a Sting Operation.
Is this a clever Sting Operation run by the FBI?
cc: MI Spooks
First of all, the “Defense Budget” should also incude all DHS, special forces, plus the unknown black money. So how much is that?
The tooth-to-tail ratio is abysmal. The “Defense Budget” is a jobs program, re-election campaign, and money-laundering slush fund. What are the high priorities today?:
1. AI and machine learning
5. Green energy and climate change
Explain how the billions spent on the above transforms into combat readiness. Yes, the large defense contractors make money. But in their defense, the majority of the people there do desire to improve combat capability, and the system is completely enabled by .gov. An example is Lockheed Martin… they’ve had a hypervelocity/sonic missile for years, but where is it? It becomes more and more obvious that the destruction of America is being perpetuated from within, and it’s intentional.
A recurring error those western trained seem hell-bent on remaining blind to is: assumption — that boils down to the ‘hopes and dreams’ of the west — a short war.
I keep waiting for the excellent boys at The Duran to abandon this fantasy, but alas.
This western fairy tale of a ‘short war’ [purportedly to save lives in the long run] made up out of whole cloth taints all western analysis, from most rabid and criminal neo cons including those in DC and Europe, which, based on their own nazi-ist orientations to begin with, it seems to me.
The excellent boys at The Duran, who best represent the most humanitarian narratives, that is western narratives, in today’s broadcast, summarized recent developments viz. Russia, including appointment of Gen. Armageddon, Putin’s appt. of special military-industrial boards, Kherson matter, and the 300K reserves called up.
Yet they missed pointing out most striking and obvious recent development: four regions now are sovereign Russian territory once more, following the self-determination votes [and all that this implies]!
If memory serves, I recall Putin recently actually mentioned a timetable of ten, a decade. . . for this operation.
Neither was Rome built in a day — this actual cliche, and also bedrock western civilization fact, apparently has gone wanting from the minds of the best to the worst, commenting on Ukraine Crisis.
The few facts we have gotten from Russian leadership on this operation, and actual facts on the ground, and all that this implies, it would seem to me, must always be part of any equation by anyone making any calculations about it.
On AM’s statement to effect Putin may not be a war time president, I found that perfectly preposterous.
Wanting to and taking action to minimize what western nazi-esque thinking flippantly labels collateral damage — that Russian military has been and continues to avoid doing this, at least for me, is action of highest moral courage and wisdom. . . which is not the stuff western nazi-esque folks either appreciate or even recognize. And from this, we have the likes of other men of good will, such as Paul Craig Roberts talking out of his pie hole, constantly, advocating military strategy without any regard for loss of human lives.
The ‘west’ lusts for a ‘quck’ war in Ukraine, yet maintains via military force: at DMZ on Korea peninsula, nearly 70 years running, now; US occupation of Japan, nearly 80 years running, now; US occupation via NATO of Europe, ditto. US policy on Taiwan, ditto.
The USA stated policy by Biden is: regime change in Moscow. Putin’s response: let them try, and so here we are. . . . And I’ll note that back in 2011, no less a gangster than Obama and his White House said Assad is a “Dead Man Walking.”!
This piece of western nazi-esque ‘diplomacy’ happened more than a decade ago.
This rank bigotry and targeting of particular nationalities based on blood, by this madman’s administration, both gross and despicable, is par for the western course — [and this sort of ‘indispensable’ ‘nation’ bile, now on steroids]:
[[“Our view is that this regime is the equivalent of dead man walking,” said Hof, the State Department’s pointman on Syria, which he said was turning into “Pyongyang in the Levant,” a reference to the North Korean capital. He said it was difficult to determine how much time Assad has left in power but stressed “I do not see this regime surviving.”]]
Obama’s race baiting, of course, did not just extend to foreign nationals. . . .
Once all of this is factored into what most of the world is fighting against, against this, THIS, represented by our government in particular and west in general, it may be a little less opaque how long this war may go on for.
In the meantime, more than a decade later, USA, still ‘guarding’ Syrian oil, Assad remain president; and Russian SMO there continues. . . .
If You Think The United States Is Ready For A Conventional War With Russia or China, Think Again. . . .
Obvious corollary is this duo has been for some time [yes, prior to Feb. 24] preparing for US unconventional war against them, that has been ongoing and continuous, and not just against them. Unconventional war being euphemism for terrorism, guerilla war, insurgencies of all manner and scope, and so on and so forth. And it is no coincidence that phrase — ‘color revolution’ — become part of vernacular in this country following disintegration of USSR, owing to and vis a vis Ukraine.
Yeah, Right says
The Duran: “Preparing for a long grind”
Cato the Uncensored says
Even in its better days, the C-5 “broke” practically every time it flew. It was good for delivering a shit-ton of men and materiel, but its ops tempo left plenty of room to be desired.
What should have mission planners looking to project power worried is the dismal score of the C-17.
I notice they don’t rate the VC-25 (“AF-1”), which is no doubt well maintained, but the poor rating of the E-4Bs, which are also 747 airframes and functioned as the principal Doomsday Airborne Command Posts during Cold War 1.0, suggest all is not rosy even in that corner of the inventory.
One can only wonder about the readiness of the missiles.
Let me rephrase that: I do not.
On the other hand: nopes.
But . . . no.
Except, of course, unless “admiral” Rachel L. Levine can come up with a way for us to win decisively. So no.
Not only desperate people at the “top”
Very irresponsible people.
Quite feminine people at the top.
Quite a number of actual OEM vagina bearers that are basically good for nothing at war or at peace. Why, the Pentagon is full of dykes and feminazis playing soldier and strutting their stuff as if all of them together were capable for latrine duty.
People with the worldview that no matter what they do and what they break some men will always come and fix whatever is broken. (Hasn’t it “always” been that way?)
People with the Benghazi attitude of playing possum and waiting for the thing to go away. (“If I stay very still and don’t make a sound they won’t notice I’m here and then, later, I’ll say it wasn’t my fault and I’ll be fine”) Call it the opposite of adult responsibility.
Watch “Why The US Military is Failing Recruitment Goals”
by Terrence Popp, Redonkulas.
Everything organized in Venezuerica, the rotting remains of the late Constitutional Republic the United States of America (July 4th, 1776 – November 3rd, 2020) is in the hands of leftoxenomorphs.
Leftoxenomorphs hate the memory of America, hate American patriots, hate humans, hate human civilization and their goal is the destruction of human civilization in order to bring about a feudal system of a planetary ant-hill with a one-hive-mind, their mind.
The Venezuerican government is fully in the hands of leftoxenomorphs.
Venezuerica is being run by poisonous leftoxenomorph maggots that pretend we do away with hydrocarbons and the internal combustion engine and replace it with the rainbow dust that comes out of the backside of unicorns. Can those leftoxenomorphs win wars?
The Venezuerican military is fully in the hands of leftoxenomorphs and it is incapable of discharging its duties.
If you are religious I suggest praying. It won’t do you any good. But, today . . . neither will anything else. It’s too late.
There is only one possible solution and every American patriot worth his salt knows what it is and the probability that it will be applied is pitifully small.
So, yes, in the end, if we get into a real peer-to-peer war, the nuclear option is just about guaranteed.
How many carriers can we lose before they panic and let the genie out?
Western civilization is sinking and it is way too late to save it.
We ought to have reacted properly to the attacks against America between fifty and a hundred years ago.
We ought to have stopped post-modernism.
We ought to have stopped the Frankfurt School.
We ought to have stopped leftoxenomorphism from becoming the state religion as it is today.
We ought to have forbidden females in education way before they all became feminazis.
We ought to have stopped leftoxenomorphism from taking over America and making it gynocentric, gynosupremacist, feminazi, gynofascist, gynocratic, rabidly misandric and cannibalistically communist.
So, I don’t.
“We ought to have”.
“Virtual History” is very popular in social interactions that are based on and sustained by beliefs/fiats/virtuals.
Mr. Stephen F. Cohen wrote a book saturated in this methodology – it was called Soviet Fates and Lost Opportunities – which he believed were lost and hence he believed at some point these opportunities were plausible.
His book was an attempt to “confirm” his hypotheses, not to establish why these hypotheses were invalid – to paraphrase Mr. Shakespeare’s observation – of an exhalation of wind signifying nothing.
“We ought to have reacted properly to the attacks against America between fifty and a hundred years ago.
We ought to have stopped post-modernism.
We ought to have stopped the Frankfurt School.
We ought to have stopped leftoxenomorphism from becoming the state religion as it is today.
We ought to have forbidden females in education way before they all became feminazis.
We ought to have stopped leftoxenomorphism from taking over America and making it gynocentric, gynosupremacist, feminazi, gynofascist, gynocratic, rabidly misandric and cannibalistically communist.”
Your assertions outlined above are also exhalations of wind signifying nothing, as are much of the beliefs designated as “planning”, and hopes designated as “strategies”, of “The United States of America”.
The heavy industrial capacity does not exist anymore The Raw capacity the amount of Ore a nation can process into refined metals and the factories to form it into products these things no longer exists as they did and it would take nearly a decade to rebuild them.
Remember how fast the industrial and civilizational build out was during the late 19th and early 20th century in the united states all that capacity was turned to the War effort but now the raw capacity it no longer exists and we now have a maintenance level capacity at the very best….. Currently the US manufacturing relies heavily on imports of refined and formed metals and assembled sub components..
This means that if Global War where to break out and and global transportation comes to an effectual end then the United States would be unable to maintain its existing infrastructure and build up industrial capacity.. If the Industrial output where redirected to rearmament then the infrastructure would deteriorate even more rapidly and the industrial capacity could also not simultaneously be built out…
The situation is worse then the professionals can perceive because the ruling class bubble they occupy has filtered the real nature of US industrial capacity… Everyone in these diminishing industries brags and boost about efficiency, quality and our superior technology but the foundations and payrolls tell the real story so get on google maps and look at all those Giant grey and black ugly plots of ground where the sausage of modern life begins where dirt is turned into metal.
These are also the places where metal is then stamped, formed and cast into the machines that make other machines.. Our industrial Footprint in this regard has contracted so as to make recover a herculean task in itself one our diminished and divided Nation would be hard pressed to achieve
To build up our dying heavy industry while also gearing up for war is not possible because the Industrial base must exist prior to the mass production of Military hardware in the volumes necessary to fight a major great nations war…
Our ships, planes, tanks and personnel may be better or not but that doesn’t matter because China has the Industrial capacity to make and deploy 10 times the number …. Quantity does indeed have a quality all its own and this was once something we understood, we have apparently forgotten this like so may other things…
Think about what goes into making a hypersonic missile its basically a less metal then a car some specialized sensors and electronics and booster rocket and then a scram or ram Jet with few moving parts a a couple hundred gallons of fuel and a warhead conventional or nuclear…
China with its industrial capacity and hundreds of millions trained industrial workers could make these by the tens or hundreds of thousands… I don’t think the US has more then 20 -30 million workers in all our heavy industry combined.
We are simply in no position to challenge other great nations we certainly cannot do it in either Russia or Chinas front or back yards……
“Quantity does indeed have a quality all its own”
It did but in significant part has been transcended by quality quantity, a lateral process which in part was derived in Japan as kanban, rendering the “neccesity” of “The United States of America” to turn gold into paper and Mitsui-Mitsubishi in 1973 to discuss with others precluded by B.A.M., and return to similar discussion in Novy Arbat in 1993, that which in various mutuations became OBOR, and “The United States of America” the fiat of financialisation.
I want to make the joke of putting the airforce back under army command again but i’ll just say decline of empire instead.
Michael Creighton says
Short answer to your question is no. The US is poisoning the soldiers via MRNA. I see recruiting centers opening in Albuquerque because we have a large shortfall in recruits. The leadership seems woosified. Perhaps these imbeciles are just a show to appear weak but I think not. We are not building weapons on industrial scale. Carrier fleets require a lot of escorts which are all targets for subs. The US sub fleet is a doomsday scenario. Hence the reason China is wisely making islands which are unsinkable albeit immobile carriers of aircraft and weapons. But I am preaching to the choir. The x factor could be the space fleet Trump let the cat out the bag. I am sure Russia and China know about this. My fear is these two powers will try to take out US because it is a persistent threat from the project for a new American century types. Don’t let anyone kid you. It’s both Dems and Rinos.
Just for kicks looked up operational readiness of German military in case Ukraine becomes an all-NATO affair. Not much searching but found article:
Is Germany’s Military Dying?
In summary, German air force is pathetic in terms of combat readiness.
I seriously doubt if NATO could physically put on the border of Ukraine the military and logistics needed to push out the Russians.
Jim Christian says
Well Larry, it isn’t as if Russia, in a hot war, is going to allow a monster refueling tanker like that to loiter to refuel the fighters coming to attack them anyway. Never happen. Same for AWACs planes. Zero availablity (depending on the context) of carrier-borne E2C is a little shocking to me, but again, it makes a fat, slow-moving target and would be destroyed. NAVAIR tanking off carriers is ‘Zero”, also. I’m not informed as to the USAF and their stuff, but NAVAIR is deep into twilight.
The entire carrier-based aircraft enterprise becomes more ludicrous by the day, to me anyway. They would make a great hospital ship and logistical platform for disaster relief if you ask me. But they aren’t a war/weapon platform that makes sense anymore. Needs too many thousands to man on too-vulnerable a hull. As such, the mission-capable status of a carrier decks’ birds is moot.
Yeah, Right says
Aircraft carriers made sense when the only way to get a bomb over a target was to strap it under an aircraft and fly it there. Bombs Away!!!
But now that the bombs can fly themselves, well, what’s the point?
Now imagine the USA trying to convoy a massive arms shipment to Ukraine, or Taiwan, using our geriatric fleet and facing anti-ship hypersonic missiles.
Not just missiles. Submarines as well.
The GAO report is barely scratching the surface of the systemic issues crippling American airframes. The situations with supply and maintenance expertise have become so dire that there are several teams across the branches devoted to reverse engineering our own technology to learn how to manufacture and repair it, and those teams have on several occasions outsourced the work after their own failure.
This is not entirely unexpected with older airframes which were designed and produced under labyrinthine conditions of secrecy and decentralization in a pre-digital era, but even the new acquisitions are complete boondoggles.
So we find ourselves in peacetime with unprecedented largess, yet our best efforts are barely keeping enough of current inventories available for pilots to meet their minimum required flight hours.
A war with a peer force right now would be catastrophic. We cannot maintain what we currently have under conditions of minimum stress. We cannot replace what we lose.
Amazing about reverse engineering. Had the image from Raiders of the Lost Ark where it is stored in the huge warehouse with other who-knows-what.
Whilst I believe that nuclear is very possibly the West’s only real threat to Russia, China and Iran in the minds of the insane political elite running the Empire, yet I wonder if sane military heads would prevail by refusing such orders if giving in would mean the ability to fight another day, knowing that following political orders would mean the end of the civilised world.
The professional soldier might be the world’s only hope in this regard.
Converting Russian Rubles to US Dollars to get a figure for Russian defence spending does mean a lot except create a false sense of meaningless financial superiority. A Ruble will go a long way inside Russia (buys more), transactions are in Rubles, Russia has access to cheap and abundant energy and minerals and its defence industrial complex is largely self contained and has a different focus. The same applies for the economy and on a ‘PPP’ GDP basis the CIA (The World Fact Book), IMF and World Bank put the Russian economy just behind Germany.
“The same applies for the economy and on a ‘PPP’ GDP basis the CIA (The World Fact Book), IMF and World Bank put the Russian economy just behind Germany.”
Part of the reasons for both the CIA (Central intelligence Agency) and The “World Bank” in interaction as has been the case from inception.
Some have method in their madness, whilst some others have madness in their methods.
For “MirrorGazing says 14 November 2022 at 10:34”:
Found nothing of substance worth of addressing in your post.
Thank you for participating.
the blame-e says
I don’t know. Perhaps these statistics are what the government wants us to see. We live in a time of rumors of war and actual war. The Fog of War surrounds everything. You cannot keep a country on an endless war footing, governed by endless warmongering. The people go nuts. I believe this. Maybe are all nuts.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” — Marcus Aurelius
The next few weeks or months will reveal a lot. Or not. That’s when winter sets in, and Russia is said to begin a winter offensive. If you crank the numbers on the Ukrainian army they should be just about out of men, machines, and material. If the Russians show up with their militarized forces it could go south very quickly for Zelensky and company. If the math is right.
If the Ukrainian army is defeated, NATO (the United States) may be forced to enter the “conflict.” I think the United States is itching for a fight with the Russians. How really prepared the United States is for open warfare with the Russians once, and if, open warfare actually breaks out will become fairly obvious. It will certainly get interesting.
How interesting? I don’t know.
I agree with Mr. Johnson; too many cooks spoil the broth especially if the majority of the cooks cannot cook in the 1st place.
in modern sea warfare the capital ship is probably know the nuclear submarine which can still operate in the modern war enviroment as the missles and supercavitating torpedos have made the surface fleet effectively obsolete.
hypersonic railgun and directed energy weapons to take out the missles are the only thing that can make surface ships effective again . they still would have to find a way to deal with the supercavitating torpedos but at least submarines and ASW aircraft could be used as a shield around the ships as these supercavitating torpedos would probably need to be guided to the target by a wire system like the early antitank guided missles.
i hope that the us navy subs are still up to snuff.
if yu want to know what the mentality of the russian people is;they think if they go down so does the entire world. i found this very interesting. my opinion not that counts for much says that everyone interested in the russian conflict should watch the video below. Our modern thought process is alien to most of them.
Mitchell Henderson – Americans Have NO Idea How The Russian People Think
this shows the corruption going on and why i avoid crypto. if yu cannot touch it and feel it you do not own it and anything digital can vanish overnight into someone elses hands.
Biden in Colombia? FTX crypto donations. UK and Greece blame crisis on Putin. U/1
I keep remembering the old Soviet SU-25s that Russia has been using throughout the SMO. Some even returned to based with parts in tatters after being hit. But survive they did. Would the US have something comparable?
John Thurloe says
So long as the Russian military is commanded by its current President, George B. McClellan it’s hardly likely the U.S. has much to fear.
Ekraj Rai says
I think defence spending comparison between major countries should be also viewed from industrial structure, R&D, material/production cost, bureaucracy, political-economic system, etc. One may need to look at; cost, expenditure may not always equate to preferred output. Wonder, if this could mean the current PRC defence spending may be in par or greater to the US.
penny BENNESS says
RUSSIA AND CHINA WILL WIN IF USA HAS A WAR WITH THEM THEY HAVE MORE
ARMS THAN THE US AND THATS A FACT AND IF USA GO DOWN THEY WILL TAKE
EUROPE WITH THEM GOD BLESS YOU MY FRIEND FROM UK
keep poking the bear. we will all pay the price.
have said for years that russia will beat the ussa in a conventional war. they spend 1/10 that ussa spends but have better more effective systems.
the only real option if wwiii starts is for the ussa to go nuclear.
then we are all having radioactive sunrises for a few centuries.