I am really glad you are making yourself higher profile outside of the USA for those who like your quiet thoughtfulness on issues.
Cheers from Tasmania, Australia
Mr. Lavrov stated that the referendums are merely a natural result of Zelensky’s comment that “Those who feel Russians should go back to Russia”. Mission Accomplished! I believe Russia had to take action (gloves off) when diplomacy failed again (IAEA/UN failure – ZNPP issue, not Kharkov “counteroffensive”). It is very likely Russia was able to convince China, India, Iran and Turkey at the SCO that an escalation was necessary to prevent a NATO (US) directed nuclear catastrophe. These countries are understandably unable to publicly support Russia, but tacit approval seems highly likely. Russia does not need to take further military offensives on the “ground”. Odessa will be returned as part of the “peace” (surrender) agreement. Same with the “denazification/demilitarization”. The war in Ukraine and with the colle(cap)tive West will be over when the C6ISR is taken out. The variables will be Poland, a move by her could definitely lead to more military groundwork (literally), but solitarily and in Winter? Serbian sideshow? Maybe, but EU/NATO unity will disintegrate when “peace” is sued for and take the wind out of that sail. Notice EU and NATO are repeatedly stating they are not at war with Russia and the general state of panic by the European cronies. The real anguish currently in Russia is how the Azov militants, leader and foreign mercenaries (who were sentenced to death) were exchanged as part of the prisoner swap. Where are they going to run? (see peace/surrender agreement and let’s not forget the “frozen assets”). There’s much online angst about Russia losing the PR campaign and conducting an insanely restrictive operation. We mere plebs are not who needed to be convinced, it was the Leadership in the Global South. Russia is going to humiliate the West with a War Crimes Tribunal, just as the Allied did to Nazi Germany. I live in hope.
There are signs, actually, that Poland is preparing to stab Ukraine in the back. They have nothing to gain from supporting Ukraine, and much to lose. On the other hand, by changing course, their revanchist dreams in western Ukraine can be realized, and they can heat their homes.
from what i gather , the polish armed forces are the biggest supplier of mercenaries in the war and they been supplying combat capable men since 2014. The russian MOD already stated the country that sent most mercs is poland.
remember the interview with Givi and Motorola back then ? they said they encountered precision sniper fire from donetsk airport and when they blasted the terminal building they found dead mercs with polish identification / badge / uniform on them.
Wouldn’t that be very poor sheep dipping? Maybe there are different types, or people use the term for different kinds of things.
Proper way would be to formally “resign”, sign the form quitting the Polish military, then head over with no ID/badges/uniforms, do your thing as a “freelance merc”, and if you make it back alive, “re-join” your unit (with no loss of rank, pension, etc.)
Isn’t another kind of sheep-dipping where, say, CIA would have someone actually resign/quit, and join FBI, DEA, etc., but serve as a spy/back channel to the Agency, with compensation for this (as the individual would have regular FBI/DEA pay, pension, etc.) being totally off-the-books. Read about this in a non-fiction book many years ago.
What an amazing roundtable: four articulate, informed gentlemen having a lively, civilized discussion. I could write quite a bit more in praise of the clarity everyone brought to the conversation, the astute analysis of Putin’s recent speech, the ripostes to the various nonsensical responses by the West, and so forth, but to do so would take a few pages. I’ll just say instead:
Did anyone see the news about the prisoner swap yesterday? 215 Ukrainians and foreign fighters for just 55 Russians and Medvedchuk. I thought this war was about the “de-nazification” of Ukraine, and yet Putin releases all of the members of the Azov Battalion who fought in Mariupol, including their commanders? The Russian nationalists were outraged. It looks like another sign of weakness by Putin.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Wake up. Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
JG,
I totally agree with you. Getting back the Russians, especially some pilots, was a smart move on Putin’s part. I’m sure Putin and all the affected families of the returnees, will sleep very well with the decision.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
Prisoner swap is more about rank and political weight than numbers. You don’t trade a Pawn for a Rook.
Medvedchuk was the Ukrainian
imprisoned by Elinsky, opposition leader and a very close friend and supporter of Puttin. He might be Russia’s winning horse in presidential elections once Ukraine is free of Nazis and stable.
You nailed it. Putin needs someone to run whatever is left of the rump state of Ukraine when this is over. Who better than someone he knew as a friend?
Also, executing Nazi prisoners of war would create troublesome “optics” for the Russians and Donbas republics regardless of the prisoners’ crimes. So, let them party in Turkey until it’s over. No harm. They’re marked men — embarrassments — to all sides in this conflict.
No fret. Over time, they will without question slowly join the “disappeared”. The only question will be, “Who disappeared them?”
please do not spread lies and FUD here , there is no such thing as russia releasing azov leaders. this is fake news from the west designed to potray russia as weak. and this is the talking point that will be used by trolls.
@ buntalanlucu said ‘please do not spread lies”, it seems that you are immature and uninformed. Do not bravely disparage posters from behind a keyboard. How old are you? 17.
I have to agree with the previous posters about the quality of the discussion. You and others on that panel are, or should be, primary sources of information for anyone following the conflict.
The return of Viktor Medvedchuk may have sparked outrage in various political circles and media outlets in Russia. However he may have more value than just being a friend of Putin.
If Zelensky can not be persuaded to negotiate then what are the options? The only alternative may be to replace Zelensky and his minders. Putin may have in mind that Viktor Medvedchuk is a viable alternative to the current leadership of Ukraine.
Putin may have bargained for a better deal than most have realized.
Thanks Gentlemen for these exchanges on the military possible developments .
I have a suspicion that on the energy/economic front the war may persist a lot longer….
The EU did said it has a plan about receiving from now mostly LNG, but don’t have the adequate number of terminals. Specifically Germany has none.
Now this beg two questions:
– will US shale gas production be still able to export quantities in 3 years time ? Geology may be very deceiving, and Joe Biden has already warned of reduced export capacities.
– in this defaulting case would Russia without any rancor reconsider supplying again Europe ?
It seems Russia huge gas and oil deal with Iran is definitively oriented East and North; where demand for gasoducs is expanding, even including from Pakistan as shown at Samarkand.
Germany will definitely try to survive coming winter and see from there. I mean the utter incompetent government, not the people. They will simply sit this one out and see if they can manage from there. I doubt they would buy from Russia, even if they might have too. Russia I can’t really read now. Usually they can differentiate between politics and business. For the right price anyone does business, even enemies. But I feel that they won’t do it because the west is printing money like crazy. From my point of view this would be beneficial only to the west. I also think full supply will only be possible if the west reverses all sanctions. We may see if the pain will be big enough for EU to buckle. But I doubt the EU cares much for their citizens. The so called politicians won’t freeze and have blackouts. It will be the economy and the citizens that will suffer the most. In Germany everyone has gotten their mail from their energy supplier. No one seems really to care. But heating might be the big surprise next year. No one really knows how much it will be in the end. I would guess around 3 to 5 times what they pay now. That already would be a shock to most people. They complain about their bills anyway, even with the old prices.
Russia has no real benefit to supply the EU. Only to collect money, but EU is printing that at will. They don’t care for inflation anymore. Only unrest and the fear to loose control over population would change something, I guess.
Russia is also rerouting their supplies. The west stated, they don’t want Russian gas. It’s mostly just talk, but why stop there? Russia has the stuff, EU wants the stuff. Anyone can guess who has the real problem here.
For Russia, money from the “West” has value only if the West can offer products Russia is interested in buying. Russia is reorienting its economy towards the East and non-Western countries, it is replacing spare parts with alternative ones (if it can’t produce it), industrial machinery, consumer products, vehicles …
Soon, there will be very little that Russia will be interested in purchasing from the West and those products that are in demand will be very expensive due to the increased input prices.
My prediction is that Russia is soon going to buy mostly spare parts that are in demand, but almost no new technology will be bought in larger quantities due to the risks.
So even if the West stops printing money, there will be low demand by Russia.
Economic relations are very inert and when they change the momentum it will, in bast case, take decades to revers the trend if at all in our lifetime.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Wake up. Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
If you follow Gonzalo, appreciate what the SBU did to him. His case is being processed by the SBU with “no projected end date”. The message: “You can’t leave Ukraine. In the meantime, keep your perceptions and conclusions about Ukraine and the war within your small, academically irrelevant circle of Western fanboys … and we’ll let you live. This is better for us than your notoriety if you suddenly “disappear”.
Recall that Gonzalo was previously very popular in Russian circles on Telegram. The SBU banned him from Telegram. Gonzalo is honoring that prohibition.
Gonzalo recognizes these dynamics. In another posting, he said he is keeping himself as visible as possible for Western audiences to void the classic predicament faced by many enemies of the state: first, they are deplatformed … and then when they are “invisible” they are quietly “disappeared”.
Gonzalo, bless him, is going to great lengths (with risks) to keep himself as visible as possible to his small Western audience to avoid this fate.
Truly a great round table, thank you Larry and the participants, for a logical analysis, including, Larry’s funny comment about the Ukranian Uber APC (around 1:19:20.)
It seems like RUS might get “stuck” with an Afghan 2.0 if they do not want to move West of the Dnieper – constant harassment by NATO/UKR forces that ends up with a drain on the RUS borders.
(maybe that’s Plan B… if they cannot defeat RUS on the battlefield, just create lots of unrest around RUS’ borders)
At the same time, if they do cross the Dnieper- then like you said, its a never ending counter-terrorism in UKR. An abject waste of time with too high a cost.
I think once the Odessa area is secured- either by RUS or by some form of buffer / demilitarization zone between NATO-RUS, then there is an real opening to stop this conflict because both sides have an interest to stop…. especially if the EU economy continues to tank.
This could then play out to what Alex said- EU/NATO gets to maintain control, while calling Putin the bad guy and blaming all the problem on RUS for this ‘long war’.
On the part about the successful military operation by UKR- there was this middle area in Kherson offensive that UKR seemed to have punched a hole in middle and moved some way in earlier. I haven’t seen any videos of this punch through.
I have only seen animated maps earlier, but it looks like RUS has recovered those territories.
La différence avec l’Afghanistan est multiple. Vous semblez figé sur les actuelles configurations politiques, sociologiques, ethno-linguistiques ukrainiennes. C’est sûr et sans démagogie, même une partie des russophones refuse l’engagement russe. Mais cela aussi se fait avec la répression féroce par le SBU/CIA d’une grande partie de la société civile ukrainienne. Après Maïdan, des dizaines de milliers de militants, de syndicalistes, de leader populaires ukrainiens anti-banderistes ont été exilés, emprisonnés, tués etc…le régime CIA/SBU a purgé la société ukrainienne de cette frange naturelle réelle autochtone. Cette partie de la société ukrainienne ne vient pas de l’extérieur, au contraire, elle est la réalité sociale. Avec le départ des milices et armée ukrainiennes, l’État russe disposera sur place de relais locaux venant de la société elle-même…On est pas en Afghanistan où les gouvernements locaux n’avaient le soutien majoritaire de la population…locale. C’est sûr qu’il y aura du terrorisme, mais aura-t-il l’implantation populaire? Le fait que Deglinski lance des missiles et obus sur des cibles civiles délibérément explique clairement qu’il n’a pas le soutien populaire en Novorossia. En réaction à Maïdan, il y a eu une manifestation importante a Kharkov, suivie par ce que les Américains savent faire mieux que quiconque, fabriquer des organisations d’extrême droite, organiser une guerre civile préventive, assassiné des milliers de militants. Cette donne va changer, il n’est pas sûr que ce terrorisme dure longtemps.
Watch the first video https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1290745494264786948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1290745494264786948|twgr^31fa533d6112c34e94dfca44aecf3e945fc9f48a|twcoay.com%2F2022%2F04%2F07%2Fbreaking-israel-nukes-beirut%2F
Make sure you scroll down and see the sparks from more than one side.
You will notice the witnesses are pointing at something in the sky. Is it a bird? Is it
Superman? ….Methinks they think it’s a plane, coming soon to a neighborhood like yours.
If you think the fucking scumbag leaders of all the Nuke countries won’t do this to you,
in order to commence much, much bigger Kabooms in other countries, howz’about
buying the Brooklyn bridge and the Golden Gate bridge from someone. Best hurry, them puppies ain’t gonna last that long, nor the cities on either side of them, all things considered. The second video shown is presented to you by one Gordon Duff. Look him up, I had never heard of him before.
Blinkens speech said it all. Victoria Nuland sitting right behind him, she is the architect of the Ukraine coup of 2014. I believe the Minsk Agreement was a stall factor so the the US and Nato could strengthen and train the Ukraine forces for what is happening today. This drew in the military response from Russia from the constant civilian shelling and broken Minsk Agreement.
The Minsk Agreement was a sham and Putin wont fall for that crap again.
The West is still in the fairyland on this and all of will pay for that consequence.
the Russian men have been frustrated by the slowness of the SMO
I saw memes saying ‘AT LAST!!!’ coming out of Russia
I wish Brian would be allowed to finish what he was going to say – his last thoughts were really good but he was just getting into it when the Armenia thing got grabbed.
I just wanted to say, after discovering you in the beginning of this conflict, that I am immensly grateful for your blog and listening to you on different platforms.
I am a simple guy from Sweden that love and have a deep respect for the real America that was founded as a republic, but at the same time have the diametrically opposite feelings regarding the American EMPIRE.
I am profoundly demoralised by the fact that Sweden (and also Finland) decided to join NATO, at the beginning of this conflict.
It was illogical, irrational and emotional and also undemocratic since the people didn’t decide but rather our leaders.
I am no national-chauvinist, but our neutrality, or at least our aspirations to be neutral (I know we haven’t realistically been 100% neutral of course), have been important for our security and our sovereignty and, according to me, also helped cooling global tensions.
Even though Switzerland will not join NATO, I understand that their neutrality also have been compromised due to them taking part in the sanctions.
I am deeply sad and angry that we couldn’t use our position as a diplomatic mediator and do some good for Ukraine and Russia. Instead we send weapons and fueled this madness and also put our security at risk and eradicated our sovereignty.
Do you agree with my sentiments?
Also, if you ever visit southern Sweden I gladly buy you a beer or offer you a tour at my arboretum in the Swedish countryside or whatever. That is, of course, if NATO dosen’t cause a nuclear war and make the northern hemisphere unliveable.
Your insights into the intelligence community is extremely valuable and interesting. If I where a bit younger (I am 33) and in better condition I would be inspired to study and perhaps even work with intelligence.
Thanks to the group for the discussion… all is from the heart. More important these discussions are at a professional level. Would prefer that Gonzalo treat these discussions with more respect get a haircut/dump smoking big gain! Still hang in there!!
As your site grows Larry, I’ve noticed a lot more uneducated trolls writing in the comments section. I like to read every single comment, but it seems I now skip many chunks. Bummer.
buntalanlucu, spoils the thread, by constantly being disparaging to those who might have a different opinion. Let’s have polite disagreements based on facts and different opinions; they add value to everyone.
@ buntalanlucu, “faceless commenter like you who without single shred of evidence…”, e-z Little China Girl.
Trusting someone is subjective. I had my doubts about Lira’s arrest. Yet, he is valuable and consistent presenting guests with valuable insights.
@ bleeechh… you might want to consider the following points:
1. stored fertilizer doesn’t ignite into an ecplosion.
2. Beirut harbor is over a deep bedrock.
3. the epicenter of the crater, caused by the explosion, is not where the fertilizer was stored.
there was 600,000 tones of concrete in each WTC tower. What kind of energy pulverized the concrete. Burning jet fuel?
I have been reading Gordon Duff different articles and on Syria since 2012, he has been spot on.
Hi Larry,
Great talk. I am an Australian finance/business journalist. I have made this comment on several comment pages for very clever and perceptive people. Hardly anyone ever responds. This idea that the ‘petrodollar’ is over and the US dollar will no longer be the the reserve currency in the forex markets does not align with the facts and is way out of date. Just about everyone, including you, make the reasonable assumption, that the foreign exchange markets are for the purpose of trade. It is not. If you go to the Bank for International Settlements triennial foreign exchange survey you see that about $6 trillion a day crosses borders. If you annualise that and compare it with annual global trade you find that trade = 1.2% of foreign exchange turnover. The rest is financial trickery, swaps and forwards mainly. 90% has the greenback on one side. The other problem is there have to be 2 big currencies other than the $US for the $US to be sidelined. What are they? The euro is one, but the yuan is foxed to the US dollar. The situation is being misread. What is starting to happen is that the financial casino is being unwound, returning to realities such as tangible things like energy and commodities. But there is also another much ignored reality, which is the relentless efficiency improvements that have been going for decades.
I am very concerned about the confrontation between the collective West and Russia, which can escalate to a nuclear war and the end of the world, as we know it! No one, even Henry Kissinger, can put sense into the current leadership in Washington and Brussels to change course. Very sad!!!
If anyone wants to play Nuclear Games with Russia they should look beyond the cloud. They got the TSAR Bomb, the biggest ever developed Nuke.
Tsar Bomba | Will Putin Use The World’s Largest Nuclear Bomb If The Ukraine Russia War Escalates?
1,028,625 views Premiered Sep 23, 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAd6Q69CFxY
The dark lords must have some unknown alien technology for this unhinged degree of hubris
are you refering to the incredible amount of ‘disc’ currently hidden in secret laboratory (previously S4 in Area 51) ?
too bad the ‘dark lords’ played them like a fiddle , as there is no ‘alien’ tech and these discs are nothing more than a mcguffin nonsense
Dam straight! Wicked response!
I am really glad you are making yourself higher profile outside of the USA for those who like your quiet thoughtfulness on issues.
Cheers from Tasmania, Australia
Mr. Lavrov stated that the referendums are merely a natural result of Zelensky’s comment that “Those who feel Russians should go back to Russia”. Mission Accomplished! I believe Russia had to take action (gloves off) when diplomacy failed again (IAEA/UN failure – ZNPP issue, not Kharkov “counteroffensive”). It is very likely Russia was able to convince China, India, Iran and Turkey at the SCO that an escalation was necessary to prevent a NATO (US) directed nuclear catastrophe. These countries are understandably unable to publicly support Russia, but tacit approval seems highly likely. Russia does not need to take further military offensives on the “ground”. Odessa will be returned as part of the “peace” (surrender) agreement. Same with the “denazification/demilitarization”. The war in Ukraine and with the colle(cap)tive West will be over when the C6ISR is taken out. The variables will be Poland, a move by her could definitely lead to more military groundwork (literally), but solitarily and in Winter? Serbian sideshow? Maybe, but EU/NATO unity will disintegrate when “peace” is sued for and take the wind out of that sail. Notice EU and NATO are repeatedly stating they are not at war with Russia and the general state of panic by the European cronies. The real anguish currently in Russia is how the Azov militants, leader and foreign mercenaries (who were sentenced to death) were exchanged as part of the prisoner swap. Where are they going to run? (see peace/surrender agreement and let’s not forget the “frozen assets”). There’s much online angst about Russia losing the PR campaign and conducting an insanely restrictive operation. We mere plebs are not who needed to be convinced, it was the Leadership in the Global South. Russia is going to humiliate the West with a War Crimes Tribunal, just as the Allied did to Nazi Germany. I live in hope.
There are signs, actually, that Poland is preparing to stab Ukraine in the back. They have nothing to gain from supporting Ukraine, and much to lose. On the other hand, by changing course, their revanchist dreams in western Ukraine can be realized, and they can heat their homes.
from what i gather , the polish armed forces are the biggest supplier of mercenaries in the war and they been supplying combat capable men since 2014. The russian MOD already stated the country that sent most mercs is poland.
remember the interview with Givi and Motorola back then ? they said they encountered precision sniper fire from donetsk airport and when they blasted the terminal building they found dead mercs with polish identification / badge / uniform on them.
i guess the term ‘sheep dipped’ apply here
Wouldn’t that be very poor sheep dipping? Maybe there are different types, or people use the term for different kinds of things.
Proper way would be to formally “resign”, sign the form quitting the Polish military, then head over with no ID/badges/uniforms, do your thing as a “freelance merc”, and if you make it back alive, “re-join” your unit (with no loss of rank, pension, etc.)
Isn’t another kind of sheep-dipping where, say, CIA would have someone actually resign/quit, and join FBI, DEA, etc., but serve as a spy/back channel to the Agency, with compensation for this (as the individual would have regular FBI/DEA pay, pension, etc.) being totally off-the-books. Read about this in a non-fiction book many years ago.
Hello Larry,
What an amazing roundtable: four articulate, informed gentlemen having a lively, civilized discussion. I could write quite a bit more in praise of the clarity everyone brought to the conversation, the astute analysis of Putin’s recent speech, the ripostes to the various nonsensical responses by the West, and so forth, but to do so would take a few pages. I’ll just say instead:
Well done to all of you, and thank you!
This was a highlight of Gonzalo’s roundtables!
Did anyone see the news about the prisoner swap yesterday? 215 Ukrainians and foreign fighters for just 55 Russians and Medvedchuk. I thought this war was about the “de-nazification” of Ukraine, and yet Putin releases all of the members of the Azov Battalion who fought in Mariupol, including their commanders? The Russian nationalists were outraged. It looks like another sign of weakness by Putin.
I read they will be held in Turkey until the war is finished.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Wake up. Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
JG,
I totally agree with you. Getting back the Russians, especially some pilots, was a smart move on Putin’s part. I’m sure Putin and all the affected families of the returnees, will sleep very well with the decision.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
Prisoner swap is more about rank and political weight than numbers. You don’t trade a Pawn for a Rook.
Medvedchuk was the Ukrainian
imprisoned by Elinsky, opposition leader and a very close friend and supporter of Puttin. He might be Russia’s winning horse in presidential elections once Ukraine is free of Nazis and stable.
You nailed it. Putin needs someone to run whatever is left of the rump state of Ukraine when this is over. Who better than someone he knew as a friend?
Also, executing Nazi prisoners of war would create troublesome “optics” for the Russians and Donbas republics regardless of the prisoners’ crimes. So, let them party in Turkey until it’s over. No harm. They’re marked men — embarrassments — to all sides in this conflict.
No fret. Over time, they will without question slowly join the “disappeared”. The only question will be, “Who disappeared them?”
please do not spread lies and FUD here , there is no such thing as russia releasing azov leaders. this is fake news from the west designed to potray russia as weak. and this is the talking point that will be used by trolls.
@ buntalanlucu said ‘please do not spread lies”, it seems that you are immature and uninformed. Do not bravely disparage posters from behind a keyboard. How old are you? 17.
I have to agree with the previous posters about the quality of the discussion. You and others on that panel are, or should be, primary sources of information for anyone following the conflict.
The return of Viktor Medvedchuk may have sparked outrage in various political circles and media outlets in Russia. However he may have more value than just being a friend of Putin.
If Zelensky can not be persuaded to negotiate then what are the options? The only alternative may be to replace Zelensky and his minders. Putin may have in mind that Viktor Medvedchuk is a viable alternative to the current leadership of Ukraine.
Putin may have bargained for a better deal than most have realized.
Thats the voice of america i delight in listening
Thanks Gentlemen for these exchanges on the military possible developments .
I have a suspicion that on the energy/economic front the war may persist a lot longer….
The EU did said it has a plan about receiving from now mostly LNG, but don’t have the adequate number of terminals. Specifically Germany has none.
Now this beg two questions:
– will US shale gas production be still able to export quantities in 3 years time ? Geology may be very deceiving, and Joe Biden has already warned of reduced export capacities.
– in this defaulting case would Russia without any rancor reconsider supplying again Europe ?
It seems Russia huge gas and oil deal with Iran is definitively oriented East and North; where demand for gasoducs is expanding, even including from Pakistan as shown at Samarkand.
Great conversation, thanks again .
Germany will definitely try to survive coming winter and see from there. I mean the utter incompetent government, not the people. They will simply sit this one out and see if they can manage from there. I doubt they would buy from Russia, even if they might have too. Russia I can’t really read now. Usually they can differentiate between politics and business. For the right price anyone does business, even enemies. But I feel that they won’t do it because the west is printing money like crazy. From my point of view this would be beneficial only to the west. I also think full supply will only be possible if the west reverses all sanctions. We may see if the pain will be big enough for EU to buckle. But I doubt the EU cares much for their citizens. The so called politicians won’t freeze and have blackouts. It will be the economy and the citizens that will suffer the most. In Germany everyone has gotten their mail from their energy supplier. No one seems really to care. But heating might be the big surprise next year. No one really knows how much it will be in the end. I would guess around 3 to 5 times what they pay now. That already would be a shock to most people. They complain about their bills anyway, even with the old prices.
Russia has no real benefit to supply the EU. Only to collect money, but EU is printing that at will. They don’t care for inflation anymore. Only unrest and the fear to loose control over population would change something, I guess.
Russia is also rerouting their supplies. The west stated, they don’t want Russian gas. It’s mostly just talk, but why stop there? Russia has the stuff, EU wants the stuff. Anyone can guess who has the real problem here.
For Russia, money from the “West” has value only if the West can offer products Russia is interested in buying. Russia is reorienting its economy towards the East and non-Western countries, it is replacing spare parts with alternative ones (if it can’t produce it), industrial machinery, consumer products, vehicles …
Soon, there will be very little that Russia will be interested in purchasing from the West and those products that are in demand will be very expensive due to the increased input prices.
My prediction is that Russia is soon going to buy mostly spare parts that are in demand, but almost no new technology will be bought in larger quantities due to the risks.
So even if the West stops printing money, there will be low demand by Russia.
Economic relations are very inert and when they change the momentum it will, in bast case, take decades to revers the trend if at all in our lifetime.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Wake up. Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
Putin knows the army’s future morale is more important than a few Nazis. Do you jail a Nazi, then tell a Russian family their son(s) were the price? Putin can pick up those dogs later (if they haven’t scarpered). He’s mobilized 300,000 reservists. Does he tell them, ‘Oh if you captured, we won’t save you.’ ? The released foreigners are better PR at home than rotting forgotten in Siberia. Think long term, like Putin.
To me, this guy gonzalo lira comes across as not trustworthy. do you really believe that SBU kidnapped him and let him go?
i trust mr lira far more than i trust a faceless commenter like you who without single shred of evidence spread lies and smear on mr lira
stop spreading lies and trolling
Are you speaking about yourself? who asked you to trust me?
quit this nonsense!
Yes, I really believe the SBU detained Gonzalo and let him go.
If you follow Gonzalo, appreciate what the SBU did to him. His case is being processed by the SBU with “no projected end date”. The message: “You can’t leave Ukraine. In the meantime, keep your perceptions and conclusions about Ukraine and the war within your small, academically irrelevant circle of Western fanboys … and we’ll let you live. This is better for us than your notoriety if you suddenly “disappear”.
Recall that Gonzalo was previously very popular in Russian circles on Telegram. The SBU banned him from Telegram. Gonzalo is honoring that prohibition.
Gonzalo recognizes these dynamics. In another posting, he said he is keeping himself as visible as possible for Western audiences to void the classic predicament faced by many enemies of the state: first, they are deplatformed … and then when they are “invisible” they are quietly “disappeared”.
Gonzalo, bless him, is going to great lengths (with risks) to keep himself as visible as possible to his small Western audience to avoid this fate.
Truly a great round table, thank you Larry and the participants, for a logical analysis, including, Larry’s funny comment about the Ukranian Uber APC (around 1:19:20.)
Boy did they get a tongue lashing .. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RbbHdZL7Bc .. won’t change the behavior though it seems
It seems like RUS might get “stuck” with an Afghan 2.0 if they do not want to move West of the Dnieper – constant harassment by NATO/UKR forces that ends up with a drain on the RUS borders.
(maybe that’s Plan B… if they cannot defeat RUS on the battlefield, just create lots of unrest around RUS’ borders)
At the same time, if they do cross the Dnieper- then like you said, its a never ending counter-terrorism in UKR. An abject waste of time with too high a cost.
I think once the Odessa area is secured- either by RUS or by some form of buffer / demilitarization zone between NATO-RUS, then there is an real opening to stop this conflict because both sides have an interest to stop…. especially if the EU economy continues to tank.
This could then play out to what Alex said- EU/NATO gets to maintain control, while calling Putin the bad guy and blaming all the problem on RUS for this ‘long war’.
On the part about the successful military operation by UKR- there was this middle area in Kherson offensive that UKR seemed to have punched a hole in middle and moved some way in earlier. I haven’t seen any videos of this punch through.
I have only seen animated maps earlier, but it looks like RUS has recovered those territories.
La différence avec l’Afghanistan est multiple. Vous semblez figé sur les actuelles configurations politiques, sociologiques, ethno-linguistiques ukrainiennes. C’est sûr et sans démagogie, même une partie des russophones refuse l’engagement russe. Mais cela aussi se fait avec la répression féroce par le SBU/CIA d’une grande partie de la société civile ukrainienne. Après Maïdan, des dizaines de milliers de militants, de syndicalistes, de leader populaires ukrainiens anti-banderistes ont été exilés, emprisonnés, tués etc…le régime CIA/SBU a purgé la société ukrainienne de cette frange naturelle réelle autochtone. Cette partie de la société ukrainienne ne vient pas de l’extérieur, au contraire, elle est la réalité sociale. Avec le départ des milices et armée ukrainiennes, l’État russe disposera sur place de relais locaux venant de la société elle-même…On est pas en Afghanistan où les gouvernements locaux n’avaient le soutien majoritaire de la population…locale. C’est sûr qu’il y aura du terrorisme, mais aura-t-il l’implantation populaire? Le fait que Deglinski lance des missiles et obus sur des cibles civiles délibérément explique clairement qu’il n’a pas le soutien populaire en Novorossia. En réaction à Maïdan, il y a eu une manifestation importante a Kharkov, suivie par ce que les Américains savent faire mieux que quiconque, fabriquer des organisations d’extrême droite, organiser une guerre civile préventive, assassiné des milliers de militants. Cette donne va changer, il n’est pas sûr que ce terrorisme dure longtemps.
I expect 50 to 100 million dead over the next three years. Diplomacy has failed…and deliberately on the West’s part.
Who wants to see exciting videos that go Kaboom?
Watch the first video
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1290745494264786948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1290745494264786948|twgr^31fa533d6112c34e94dfca44aecf3e945fc9f48a|twcoay.com%2F2022%2F04%2F07%2Fbreaking-israel-nukes-beirut%2F
Make sure you scroll down and see the sparks from more than one side.
Then Watch video 2
https://twitter.com/gpduf/status/1293687841055215621
You will notice the witnesses are pointing at something in the sky. Is it a bird? Is it
Superman? ….Methinks they think it’s a plane, coming soon to a neighborhood like yours.
If you think the fucking scumbag leaders of all the Nuke countries won’t do this to you,
in order to commence much, much bigger Kabooms in other countries, howz’about
buying the Brooklyn bridge and the Golden Gate bridge from someone. Best hurry, them puppies ain’t gonna last that long, nor the cities on either side of them, all things considered. The second video shown is presented to you by one Gordon Duff. Look him up, I had never heard of him before.
There you go, False Flag City,
the Russian men have been frustrated by the slowness of the SMO
I saw memes saying ‘AT LAST!!!’ coming out of Russia
Blinkens speech said it all. Victoria Nuland sitting right behind him, she is the architect of the Ukraine coup of 2014. I believe the Minsk Agreement was a stall factor so the the US and Nato could strengthen and train the Ukraine forces for what is happening today. This drew in the military response from Russia from the constant civilian shelling and broken Minsk Agreement.
The Minsk Agreement was a sham and Putin wont fall for that crap again.
The West is still in the fairyland on this and all of will pay for that consequence.
the Russian men have been frustrated by the slowness of the SMO
I saw memes saying ‘AT LAST!!!’ coming out of Russia
I wish Brian would be allowed to finish what he was going to say – his last thoughts were really good but he was just getting into it when the Armenia thing got grabbed.
Hello Larry.
I just wanted to say, after discovering you in the beginning of this conflict, that I am immensly grateful for your blog and listening to you on different platforms.
I am a simple guy from Sweden that love and have a deep respect for the real America that was founded as a republic, but at the same time have the diametrically opposite feelings regarding the American EMPIRE.
I am profoundly demoralised by the fact that Sweden (and also Finland) decided to join NATO, at the beginning of this conflict.
It was illogical, irrational and emotional and also undemocratic since the people didn’t decide but rather our leaders.
I am no national-chauvinist, but our neutrality, or at least our aspirations to be neutral (I know we haven’t realistically been 100% neutral of course), have been important for our security and our sovereignty and, according to me, also helped cooling global tensions.
Even though Switzerland will not join NATO, I understand that their neutrality also have been compromised due to them taking part in the sanctions.
I am deeply sad and angry that we couldn’t use our position as a diplomatic mediator and do some good for Ukraine and Russia. Instead we send weapons and fueled this madness and also put our security at risk and eradicated our sovereignty.
Do you agree with my sentiments?
Also, if you ever visit southern Sweden I gladly buy you a beer or offer you a tour at my arboretum in the Swedish countryside or whatever. That is, of course, if NATO dosen’t cause a nuclear war and make the northern hemisphere unliveable.
Your insights into the intelligence community is extremely valuable and interesting. If I where a bit younger (I am 33) and in better condition I would be inspired to study and perhaps even work with intelligence.
Kind regards.
Thanks to the group for the discussion… all is from the heart. More important these discussions are at a professional level. Would prefer that Gonzalo treat these discussions with more respect get a haircut/dump smoking big gain! Still hang in there!!
As your site grows Larry, I’ve noticed a lot more uneducated trolls writing in the comments section. I like to read every single comment, but it seems I now skip many chunks. Bummer.
I try to cull the worst offenders. Please help me identify ones that should be excused from the conversation.
Roger, out.
buntalanlucu, spoils the thread, by constantly being disparaging to those who might have a different opinion. Let’s have polite disagreements based on facts and different opinions; they add value to everyone.
@ buntalanlucu, “faceless commenter like you who without single shred of evidence…”, e-z Little China Girl.
Trusting someone is subjective. I had my doubts about Lira’s arrest. Yet, he is valuable and consistent presenting guests with valuable insights.
@ bleeechh… you might want to consider the following points:
1. stored fertilizer doesn’t ignite into an ecplosion.
2. Beirut harbor is over a deep bedrock.
3. the epicenter of the crater, caused by the explosion, is not where the fertilizer was stored.
there was 600,000 tones of concrete in each WTC tower. What kind of energy pulverized the concrete. Burning jet fuel?
I have been reading Gordon Duff different articles and on Syria since 2012, he has been spot on.
Hi Larry,
Great talk. I am an Australian finance/business journalist. I have made this comment on several comment pages for very clever and perceptive people. Hardly anyone ever responds. This idea that the ‘petrodollar’ is over and the US dollar will no longer be the the reserve currency in the forex markets does not align with the facts and is way out of date. Just about everyone, including you, make the reasonable assumption, that the foreign exchange markets are for the purpose of trade. It is not. If you go to the Bank for International Settlements triennial foreign exchange survey you see that about $6 trillion a day crosses borders. If you annualise that and compare it with annual global trade you find that trade = 1.2% of foreign exchange turnover. The rest is financial trickery, swaps and forwards mainly. 90% has the greenback on one side. The other problem is there have to be 2 big currencies other than the $US for the $US to be sidelined. What are they? The euro is one, but the yuan is foxed to the US dollar. The situation is being misread. What is starting to happen is that the financial casino is being unwound, returning to realities such as tangible things like energy and commodities. But there is also another much ignored reality, which is the relentless efficiency improvements that have been going for decades.
I am very concerned about the confrontation between the collective West and Russia, which can escalate to a nuclear war and the end of the world, as we know it! No one, even Henry Kissinger, can put sense into the current leadership in Washington and Brussels to change course. Very sad!!!
If anyone wants to play Nuclear Games with Russia they should look beyond the cloud. They got the TSAR Bomb, the biggest ever developed Nuke.
Tsar Bomba | Will Putin Use The World’s Largest Nuclear Bomb If The Ukraine Russia War Escalates?
1,028,625 views Premiered Sep 23, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAd6Q69CFxY