The Biden Administration stands on the threshold of launching America into a war with Russia that we will lose. Most Americans have swallowed the propaganda that our military is first rate and head and shoulders above Russia and can easily handle Putin’s forces. But our military is more like the now retired Lt. Colonel Alexander Vindman–well dressed, well decorated, fat and soft. Yes, we have some remarkable capabilities and some very brave, capable men and women. But the risks of getting into combat with Russian forces who are fighting on their home turf are enormous.
Here is the hard truth. America has not fought a real Army and Air Force in the last fifty years. The Vietnam War was the last time we fought something resembling a genuine Army and we failed to win that contest. In saying this I am not disparaging the grit and sacrifice of the soldiers, sailors, Marines and aviators who fought and died in Vietnam. They were betrayed by military and political leaders who lied about the war and used those lies to rally a majority of Americans to support a hopeless military mission. Our ignominious retreat from Vietnam lives on in iconic images of helicopters being dumped from US aircraft carriers into the China Sea. And this fact remains–we lost to a third world Army.
In the intervening fifty years America has sent its military forces to “fight” in Honduras, Grenada, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, Panama, Somalia, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. We have not fought a single country with a legitimate air force or functioning army. And we have not prevailed in all of those contests. Anyone prepared to argue that we won victories in Somalia or Afghanistan? Give it your best shot.
So now the American public is being hoodwinked into backing a fools errand of sending weapons, troops and fighter wings to countries near to or on the border of Russia. I am old enough, barely, to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. Americans were furious that the Soviets dared to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba. That was on our border and was unacceptable. Fortunately that dire situation ended without a nuclear war. Cooler heads prevailed.
Why do we indulge the childish fantasy that we can deploy weapons and military forces to countries bordering Russia and that Russia will tolerate this threat? They will not. This is a bona fide red line for the Russians.
Here is how the rebel Ukrainians who live in the disputed eastern portion of Ukraine see the situation:
According to the LPR intelligence, the preparation of the Ukrainian security forces for the offensive in the Donbass has entered the final phase.
The Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon arrive in Donbass to assess the troops readiness for the offensive, said the official representative of the People’s Militia of the LPR Ivan Filiponenko on January 4.
“According to the People’s Militia intelligence agency, a commission of the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine headed by Commander-in-Chief General Zaluzhny will arrive at the location of the task force “North” in the near future. The visit is aimed to assess the combat readiness of the military units of the group North to conduct offensive operations,” Filiponenko said.
Most of the Javelin, TOW and NLAW anti-tank missile systems from the U.S. and U.K. were delivered to the Donbass front lines. The UAF Command is deploying personnel trained in the use of these foreign-made anti-tank missile systems in the area of the Joint Forces Operation.
At the same time, the situation remains tense on the Ukrainian-Belorussian border. On January 3, the Belarusian military shot down a Ukrainian drone that went 40 km deep into the territory of their country.
If the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch an offensive in Donbass and Luhansk with U.S. and U.K. supplied weapons Russia will respond to quash that offensive. I believe the Russians will rely on airstrikes and artillery to fend off the Ukrainian attack. At that point the west will howl in outrage and there will be enormous pressure on Biden to retaliate.
If the United States and the United Kingdom decide to use air power to support Ukrainian forces we will be entering a threat realm we have not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Russians have robust, sophisticated air defense systems. The Russians have a significant contingent of jet fighters and bombers. The odds are high, if this scenario unfolds, that the United States will lose a significant number of aircraft and pilots.
If that happens we will find ourselves on the threshold again of nuclear war. Russia has other cards to play. They can launch massive cyber attacks on the United States, attacking and disabling power girds, communications systems and our financial system. The United States could try to do the same inside Russia, but I believe that Russia is far better prepared than are we for such an escalation. I am not trying to spread fear. Just hoping we can get past all of the hollow political posturing and take a cold, hard look at what we hope to achieve if we decide to intervene militarily on behalf of Ukraine.
Whoa, this was published in early February. Got a crystal ball?
Larry Johnson says
I hope that gives you some confidence in my analytical perspective.
Hi Mr. Johnson,
Both you and Andrei Martyanov are top of the league in analytical perspective – I doff my hat to you both…BRAVO!!!
Very, very good analysis Larry. Of course with 20/20 hindsight we know that the actual Russian response was even grander and more forceful (and to be honest, more awesome!) than you envisioned, but your observation and the prediction that Russia will intervene militarily were both spot-on.
I think it’s a coin flip. No nation has waged a war with another nation similar in size and military prowess. We also don’t know what each nation has in the top secret classified department either. Mutually assured destruction is potentially a thing of the past. With Russia or the USA may have the ability to disable a nuclear attack even from a hypersonic missile. Hypersonic missiles were first being developed by the USA in the early 2000s but we suddenly just stopped working on them, which to me, means we developed them, and didn’t want anyone else to know we had, or we discovered something even better. China stole the tech via spies and that’s how they began developing hypersonic.
It’s a massive game of chess. And when we add in super computers and AI running millions of scenarios a minute with their algorithms, and with AI being capable of developing inventions that we would take hundreds or thousands of years to create because they can think light speed faster than us and run experiments faster than anything we could dream of, I think whoever wins the next war is going to be the one with the best supercomputers and AI with machinery like 3D printing. AI could literally build an entire air forces of drones and control them in a way that humans would look like apes in 2001 Space Odessy. Americas advantage over everyone else is our each sector and the shit they’re creating there would probably make us question everything about our existence as we know it. Our military will be at a point in the future where AI will be building the drones, robot soldiers, and fighting with them while we literally just watch. If the computers are as good as I have read they are, and they have AI that can think like they have been working on, then they could easily create a method to stop hypersonic nukes in their tracks. Sounds crazy, I know, but the stuff they’re doing today seemed like impossible 30 years ago.
What scares me is how secretive our government is with regards to its best weapons. And how one day they could save us from nuclear war but then be used against us afterwards. Computers and AI has no soul and they are the perfect soldier, scientist, generals, etc.
Carl Schurz says
A modest comment from Germany :). As far as I know, before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States had started building missiles with nuclear warheads in eastern Turkey. So this isn’t the first time the US (Washington? Pentagon? Deep state?) has “tested” how far they can go.
And now to you, dear Mr. Johnson. Their contributions and analyzes are sensational and enriching. Thank you very much. I’m happy to donate.
Russia’s regular air defense and air assets are highly integrated into its nuclear detection and deterrence capabilities. America’s institutionalized doctrine of attaining complete air supremacy prior to any possible land engagement would set the path for nuclear exchange more rapidly then any other escalation short of a preemptive nuclear strike.
Its a mistake to depend upon rational reasoning to prevent the inexorable pull of conflict. In the end reason and competency will twist, contort and degrade itself in order to submit to the will of passion.
A case can be made for Nuclear powers being able to conduct a conventional limited war but that case cannot be reasonable be made at the door step of either belligerents core territorial/security interest.
If Russia perceives itself as losing the ability to defend itself it will act accordingly as the states continued existence is under immediate threat.. The ability to deter a nuclear strike is dependent on it ability to launch before any significant degradation of capacity via preemptive strikes hit your nuclear assets… That capacity to launch before being severely degraded includes the a highly integrated air defense and detection systems that would be amongst the first element targeted by and US Nato intervention.
Ideas are being played with that should not be, by people deeply infected with hubris…