Western propaganda is hooked on the meme that Russia’s military is performing like a creaky, ancient Model T Ford bereft of a good engine. Underestimating one’s enemy, particularly in war, is not only dangerous but carries some unpleasant lethal consequences for the person or persons making such a mistake.
Brian Berletic’s latest post features an interview with the Donbass Devushka (which means, if my translator is correct, “Donbass Girl”). This Devushka has a pretty deep voice for a girl and displays a depth of knowledge about the composition and operation of a Russian BTG.
If you want a good introduction to the subject matter I encourage you to watch the following:
I know Donbass Devushka well. She lives in America and left Donetsk in the 1990s as I recall.
Thanks. I read your comment on Telegram. Did “she” (alex) serve in the army?
Alex is not a she, he explains he is a contributor to her site at the beginning of the video 🙂
I know. I was being sarcastic.
The lost art of hidden sarcasm.
After the SMO kicked off, DD expanded from one expat to a team of various people across the globe. Alex is one of the new joiners, not the OG DD.
“In speaking on the efficacy of Russian reconnaissance, military analyst Phillip Karber states, ‘The Russians havebroken the code on reconnaissance-strike complex, at least at the tactical and operational level…”
“The [Russian] BTG [Battalion Tactical Group] is a tactical formation that possesses operational indirect fires and air-defense capability, allowing it to have one foot in the tactical level of war, while the other foot is able to operate
in and influence the operational level of war.”
— MAJ Amos Fox8-9
https://www.benning.army.mil/infantry/magazine/issues/2021/Fall/pdf/10_Baumann_txt.pdf
Using a BTG for maneuver warfare saves money, makes your force quicker to react, and allows you to fight in more locations simultaneously. You can see the advantages now very clearly.
..”they dont need much support but can certainly go 200 km in a direction and come back now consider a hundred such units on a wide front your going to have to break up your BCTs or get surrounded in fortified points.. Key weakness is in urban areas so likely Russia would siege them a huge difference to the bct. They would not attack a full bct in close range combat they only have 200 infantry an artillery attack and fighting withdrawal is on the cards.”
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/getting-know-russian-battalion-tactical-group
Now consider Russian strategy so far. This is influenced by Svechin’s strategies as I write here:
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/big-serges-big-surge
There is a whole batch of comments there though.
And they are not always bright.
Got banned there for sarcasm and reductio ad absurdum.
Whatever…
Ooops! Not comments but moderatorsmy bad.
If you want to understand the present, look to the past and what Canada has just released.
To me, it’s astounding that there are so many parallels to Washington’s intervention in the Balkan wars beginning 30 yrs ago in Bosnia and what’s now happening in Ukraine. If you balk at the Grayzone, go to the files themselves (they’re linked) and be your own judge. (post-USSR cookie cutter geopolitics?)
A trove of intelligence files sent by Canadian peacekeepers expose CIA black ops, illegal weapon shipments, imported jihadist fighters, potential false flags, and stage-managed atrocities.
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/12/30/declassified-intelligence-files-bosnian-war/
I’ve read somewhere that British Empire used to refer to Serbs as Little Russians. Once one understands that, astounding parallels become just the case of same actors using same script to achieve same goal. Russian volunteers fought in Yugoslavia, because they knew that Russia is next in line. It’s the same war.
The parallels are their for all to see from the religious aspect with the West through the Vatican spending centuries trying to convert the Orthodox Slavs leading to Balts, Poles, Croats and Uniate Ukrainians willing proxies and giving rise to neo-fascist movements such as the Ustashi and Bandera UON of WWII who’s descendants we see today fighting for Russia’s destruction having pacified the pesky Serbs during the late 1990s!
The British have never forgiven the Russians for assisting the Orthodox Slavs during the Balkan Wars of liberation and gaining control over Crimea and the Black Sea hence their support for Ukraine and hopes of establishing a NATO base in Odessa to supplement the US plans for Sevastopol.
The shame and embarrassment dealt to Russia during the 1990s awakened the establishment who saw what the West had done to their country, Iraq, Yugoslavia and the aggressive expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders resulting in the arrival of Putin and the transformation of Russia into the global power we see today.
@History’s rhymes and reasons says is correct in sharing the Grayzone piece as they support earlier releases from the British MoD and Clinton Presidential Library documenting a truer picture of the Yugoslav War than that made in MSM:
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2020/01/13/new-british-documents-about-srebrenica-not-exactly-sensational-but-useful-nevertheless/
https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/collections/show/37
This Alex’s English make english learner like me drooling on how to attain such sexy accent. Excellent content as expected from Brian.
Judging by my son, growing up in a bilingual family, each parent only speaking their native language. Sorry.
I have bilingual daughters – their English fluent but their accent is all over the place as they pick it up from so many places (including school teachers with American accents which drives me wild when my daughters pick it up). I’ve met many posh Englishmen too, none of them have such a pure consistent accent.
This Alex has a very very pure accent with almost no other influences. I think he must have been educated to speak this way with the TV turned off and no visits to UK or anywhere else at a young age. Probably as a diplomat or a trained translator (perhaps a military one).
Accent/precision struck me as also too pure by half. Makes Douglas Murray sound like a country tradesman.
Interesting that he’s so well versed in Soviet era conscription policy. A pretty arcane branch of military history even for a Russian.
Have a cig with Lira
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9957O8n8d0
If you are a nation at a distance…you going to bank in US banking system….after watching what they did to RU capitol? This was not the same in WW 1… and WW 2…where bond obligations and deposits were honored….no matter who owned them. Enemy or not…back then the banks were “Swiss”.
This is no longer true. Bad capitol drives out good capitol… Gresham’s Law. US non backed $$$ drive out resource backed Rubles…for example.
Pass on Lira. No original content past the initial Kharkiv reports. He’s gotten a little better in crediting other people’s work vs. implicitly passing it off as his own, but lack of originality is still too much of an issue for me to bother paying attention.
As for your “capital” comments: your last statement is self contradictory and wrong to boot: you confuse a commodity and manufacturing constrained world economy with the formerly finance controlled world economy.
As Doomberg noted: when energy is in shortfall, energy is the only currency. Now extend this to the entire periodic table: lithium, food, fertilizers, metals, etc etc.
This is why the Fed is acting to destroy demand by raising interest rates – it has no power to increase supply nor to rein in stupid US and EU government actions (i.e. sanctions), so it will use its interest rate hammer to crush American and Latin American economies in the hope that this will destroy enough demand (i.e. make enough people poorer) to offset the supply shortfall.
The problem is: this won’t work. This might have worked 30 years ago when the US/EU were the majority of the world’s GDP; they are a minority now.
You can argue with Lira’s extrapolations/conclusions but you can’t argue with the caliber of his intelligence.
Note I made no references to his intelligence – brains and/or sources.
What I said is he has shown zero original analysis, and had a terrible habit of obviously ripping out other people’s analysis and rehashing it – without crediting where it came from.
Draw whatever conclusion you want from that.
Yes, Lira has mostly rehashed information. Sometimes he has original commentary, especially some of the hidden financial directions. He comes up with some insights and ideas others have not but…not often. Still I watch him for just to have a complete coverage of matters.
What he does is, take others’ opinions, facts, and futuristic projections, plus a smidgeon of his own prognostications, squeeze the dogshite out of the aforementioned total to a fifteen or so-minute presentation, slightly slathered with humor, to taste. This, with the ability to avoid torture and death by Nazidom, and lastly give an entertaining and comprehensive IMHO, podcast. Long podcasts usually bore me to tears and incomprehensible depression. Tom Luongo is oft an exception. I’m totally cool with Brian Berletic (ex Jarhead), The Duran Boys, and others, but they draaaaw things out. There are only 24 hours in a day, and I’m retired. Just think how bad it would be if a working person had to pick and choose which alternate yet true information was available in a day. After all, it’s only about fucking World War III.
Just a suggestion: I usually play almost everything at 1.3 (standard setting) up to 1.8 and sometimes 2.0 speed.
If you use Firefox I recommend testing Enhancer for Youtube addon. It saved me tons of time since I started using it. I usually have to boost the sound too.
Alternate theory is the FED is raising to crush the euro and hence make the EU subordinate to the dollar. The US uses SOFR as the interest rate benchmark now rather the long used LIBOR. The bankers that own the Fed saw WEF and cronies as cutting them out of the pie with the “build back better” scheme……banker wars. Check some Tom Luongo interviews for deep dive explanations
“This might have worked 30 years ago when the US/EU were the majority of the world’s GDP; they are a minority now.”
And we did it to ourselves. We trained them and we exported our know-how. You have to be an idiot if you couldn’t see what was going to happen and yes, we are run by idiots. All it takes is an ounce of common sense.
El problema es creer que quienes te dirigen son los verdaderos. Los que realmente dirigen a USA y todo “occidente” no tienen que ver con los intereses de la gente de USA; tal como a la NATO no le interesa la gente de Ucrania, solo “carne de cañón” para sus objetivos.
I read that Paper on how to defeat a BTG last year, my reaction was all that was missing was Red pants and bayonets. The paper was on how a US BCT [4400 troops] vs RU BTG [1100 troops]. Given the firepower and mobility of the BTG the good author’s conclusion can be summarized as:
Human wave.
Use greater numbers to overwhelm the BTG by attacking on a broad front to overwhelm the BTG with tempo and spread them out, the RU are casualty averse.
The BTG has more firepower than a BCT, and certainly better combined arms and better integrated IADS and Drone/counterdrone.
The author God bless him was a US Cav officer doing his best.
That’s not correct.
What is being proposed is to attempt to “defeat in detail”: that a BCT can theoretically take on one BTG at a time, destroy it, then move on.
Yes, there are many assumptions which are not solid: among them that the BTG/US force has superior mobility, reconnaissance, communications and control than the equivalent 4 BCTs overall and the target 1 BCT in particular.
But it is not human waves. Don’t make the mistake of belittling as opposed to understanding.
As I said before at the Strategic level of USA takes over the world, Ukraine is a Reconnaissance in Force.
The US couldn’t even take over Afghanistan.
Alex speaks such perfect English, even with a southern English accent, it seems he must have learned the language at a very young age. I wonder how good his Russian is?
Just add this to one of the many reasons the US should be very reluctant to put boots on the ground in the Ukraine. Lots of people on the Russian side can listen in on English language communications, but not so many people on the US side could understand Russian communications.
Gavin, it’s actually the other way around. The US/NATO have plenty of Russian speakers working for them at all levels (Ukrainians, other former Sovereign people). Russia on the other hand has very poor English competency (I know this by experience as a westerner having lived in Russia). It’s one of their major issues and also a reason why they do so poorly with pyops and information warfare.
Z42- you are right. That said, when I lived in Northern Siberia, a local school sought me out. Flattered, I gave 30 – 40 min presentations all conducted in English once a week or so. Food, housing, accents, rain and so on. Everyone enjoyed themselves.
(Even the teacher used me to brush up on her grammar and pronunciation!).
They all seem to learn that infernal British pronunciation. I wonder of the British Library is still around in Moscow or have they evicted it already, maybe even burned it to the ground?
Says someone who has six syllables in the word vehicle, and cant spel to save theyre l-eyeffe.
Perhaps those Ukrainian speakers might want to check with some Afghan translators about the long-term consequences of working for US/NATO. Don’t worry, we tell them — the US has your back!
On a broader level, that is symptomatic of the general attitude of the US — We can buy whatever we need.
We can depend on Ukrainians or others to translate accurately whatever the Russians are saying. Just like we can continue to depend on Russia to send us the titanium we need for the high tech weapons we are using against … the Russians. And we can depend on China to keep sending us the rare earths and computer chips which keep US ships and planes buzzing the Chinese coast.
Realistically, if Our Betters wanted to make war on the rest of the world, they should first have built a corps of loyal US multi-lingual people committed to serving as translators for the military. But that would be at least a 10 year project.
Yes, a ten-year project on paper, a fifteen-year project in reality, and after five years the message will be never mind.
Surprisingly Alex pronounce “Devushka” incorrectly. Not in a Russian way with a long ee “Deevushka” both Brian and Alex pronounce it with a short e like in “denial”.
Alex is not Russian.
Lars – Alex pronounced “Devushka” correctly, exactly as a Russian would pronounce it.
It’s ‘dyevushka’.
Lika’s right. He pronounced it perfectly. It’s Berletic, along with Mercouris who consistently stress the wrong syllable (usu. the one after the correct one) in a whole slew of Russian words and nameplaces. Granted, it’s confusing, since there are no accent marks in Cyrillic to guide you, as in French but no real excuse for it these days since when in doubt, a few clicks will bring up a native pronouncing any word you want in most any language.
Plus that Dz sound’s a real tongue twister for English speakers. Even that serial guest interrupter Lavelle can’t manage Dima (dzima) after 20 years on the air. 😉
Knowing how to speak German helps with dz, tz, ts, and Z in general. Also, the Russian has a little tiny b for a soft pronunciation, usually at the end of a word.
Ah! the wrong emphasis on syllables. Kamala (ka should be short like the ba in bat) the not Kaa, same with ‘ma’ Kamal means lotus kamala is feminine form.
Same with Asad it’s not Ass aad . The sa is also silent. It’s one of the many names for Lion in Arabic.
What irritates me is even native Pakistanis when they move abroad mis pronounce their countrys name. It doesn’t have the sound of pack rather paak.
Also Stan in the is not the stan in Stanley it’s actually ‘is th aan’ from the root indo-turkic word for place or home or land ie ‘is tha naa’ Or in Sanskrit ‘S tha aan,’ written aa sthan, eg the historic name given by Mughals to India was Hindustan.
Not so. Check this out – this one’ll throw you for a loop. Two similar but distinct words, devushka (young woman) and devochka (little girl). Click on the speaker icon on the Russian side.
https://translate.yandex.com/?source_lang=en&target_lang=ru&text=devushkadevochka
Have you been to the Korova Milk Bar lately? Do the sophistos still outnumber the peasants and the Droogies?
Spoof. MoU with the Wagner group to de-nazify America.
https://abeldanger.blogspot.com/2023/01/memorandum-of-understanding-mou-between.html
I’ll sign the MoU. It would feel like signing the Declaration of Independence. We must purge our government of the Neocon Nazis.
Underestimating the enemy seems to be one of the West’s greatest skills. From the very beginning of the SMO it has absolutely baffled me that the West could not even conceive that a country that produces top-tier mathematicians and chess players could not look forward down different courses of action and readjust as needed. Absolutely mind boggling.
Because to “know thy enemy” one must first follow the Delphi oracle injunction to “know thyself.”
But that requires an absolute trashing of self-deluding mythologies about American history , capitalism and socio-cultural supremacy. America not only believes it is superior. It assumes it MUST be superior. This is religious thinking about one’s own capabilities and extremely dangerous.
Totally agree. The myths of Russia and Russians are deeply ingrained in the western psyche, even amongst the “experts”. As Alex says, a BTG was specifically designed to reduce Russian casualties, yet the idiot trope that the Russians don’t care about their soldiers lives persists. Two things that jump out at me about the Red Army in WW2 was they learned fast from their mistakes and that they were deceptive and sneaky as fuck. Even with hindsight, the west seems to think the SMO deceptions and feints are/were mistakes.
Underestimating the enemy, failure to know your enemy (and yourself) are Sun Tsu basics the west seem to have ignored.
The leadership class in the US is so enamored with itself that it believes what it would do in any situation is the only correct action. So it only plans for what it would do if it were “in the other shoes”, except it can’t actually get in those shoes because of its beliefs about itself. The minute another nation does something different than the US would do it becomes a mistake.
Bulls*it. You mean to tell me that the Russians are not going YPPPPPAAAAAAAA! and getting mowed down by 404 machine guns while running over mountains of dead Russian bodies from the previous YPPPPPPPPPAAAAAAA! wave????? I am shocked, SHOCKED, I tell you!!!
The Russians appear to be a bit more, competent and formidable then the usual line up of Goat herders and peasants.
The “usual line of Goat herders” kick ass of both Russian and US Army in Afghanistan :-/
… with the help of some big pile of rocks (mountains)
Of particular importance in this video is the emphasis on Russian training. BTGs are fully integrated, combined arms teams. Their small size relative to NATO BCTs requires very extensive training and field-level experience at the officer level. Hence, the time taken to train Russia’s newly mobilized forces. Combined arms capability using the latest technology is a force multiplier. BCTs are best for defensive operations. The UAF’s creation of what I call a “maginot grid” — a matrix of separated fortified positions — degrades the BCT’s main advantage — numbers, a BCT being 10 times larger than a BTG.
Well said. The pudding is in the eating. The formation has to adapt to the enemy and the terrain.
There is an advantage in being able to scale in size or link with other btgs. There is alsta disadvantage. With air power and drones the risks for bct wipeout are higher but these units also have defensive capabilities, scale and sub units.
In Ukraine smaller faster units seem to do better in attack but struggle to hold positions.
So the ideal seems to be like an American football offence defence set up where larger numbers of defensive troops quickly back up offensive specialists.
Disagree.
In Ukraine, the Ukrainians have been fighting Twitter war in the form of taking empty land.
The Russians are fighting Clausewitzian war: destroy the enemy’s military and economic capability.
Why should a small force make a stupid last stand a la The Alamo, except over literally nothing of value, when it can just withdraw and pound its attackers to bits? Then come back later after the attacking force is exhausted?
The reality is that we do not know what happens when a heavily outnumbered BCT decides to hold onto a key strategic position, because we have not seen it yet.
That’s in no small part due to very capable Russian military planning and the reality that Ukraine is outmatched in every way in this conflict.
Based on a couple of reports from Russian sources Ukraine, due to massive losses, is resorting to deploying smaller, more nimble offensive groupings supported by a few tanks and APC. Given the Russian superior fire power, the smaller units are not succeeding in their attempts to crack the Russian lines.
Thank you for the lesson on the BTG, Brian
Sevastopol is where they started getting tough in WWII against one of the greatest WAR machines ever created.
Stalingrad was about getting to the oil fields just beyond and all rail lines from those fields ran through the city.
Guderian once said to Hitler if this place wasn’t named after Stalin would you care at all, anyone else would have been shot on the spot but the Panzer General was relieved of duty for awhile.
You never underestimate the Russian bear and only a fool pokes it with a stick.
We have an old speech in Seklerland ” The bear is not a toy , the bear will kill you ! ” It is shocking to me that people who are said to be smart and educated have not learned from history, and especially know so little about the Russians and their mentality !
That Russian doll is the best picture so far on site. Sums it up.
The Russian doll with it’s art,hidden dolls inside and surprises inside, gaining value over time, versus, the Barbie doll, plastic unit easily and cheaply made, sold vastly overpriced, well marketed, large mass market for 6-9 year olds.
Army of Russian dolls v Army of Barbies….hmmm tough one.
Probably when you open that doll up, the one inside will be holding a Kalashnikov – and so on . . .
Legacy media left exposed and naked again, wow!
I came across this today. What do you think? It is, after all, true.
Exmarine268 9 hours ago
I am not completely convinced that nukes are real, any more than I am convinced that the Ukraine War is real. Where is the combat footage? Bombed out tanks easy to stage. Why is West ignoring its possible nuclear annihilation? Could it all be another deception? Another psyop? I believe NOTHING in the news unless I see proof.
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Jay Exmarine268 7 hours ago
Smoke and mirrors in the fog of war cause truth to be the first casualty. In a digital age such as we live in, you can’t keep the wives of that many dead soldiers quiet very long.
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Zelensky controls all media and there is no opposition in Ukraine. Are families informed if soldiers killed?Many women and Children left.
Western media ofcourse is never going to interview the windows. That hurts narrative.
But yes. Something a little odd about this war. So worth keeping a bit of a skeptical mind unless you are on the ground and can see it.
Anyone who doesn’t believe in the existence of nuclear weapons is science-challenged.
2 workers in Japan caused a self sustaining nuclear fission reaction just by shoveling too much enriched material into a bucket against regulations, in an effort to be more efficient. A sad case of Kaizen combined zero core understanding of physics…
Look up the Tokaimura accident to read more.
All a nuclear fission weapon is, is highly enriched nuclear material smashed together via explosives – a literal shaped charge but with a central maximum pressure point as opposed to a pencil thin plasma stream as the objective.
Fusion bombs are then putting fusible material in a shell outside the fission explosion.
The issue has never been getting the explosion – the issue is how to make the bomb small and the yield large. The Hiroshima bombs were 5 short tons in weight (10,000+ lbs); modern US nuclear warheads are 10x or more powerful in yield but weigh under 1000 lbs.
“modern US nuclear warheads are 10x or more powerful in yield but weigh under 1000 lbs.”
does that mean that these warheads will leave less radioactive materials afterwards? thus making their use less harmfull on the long run?
Depends on your point of view.
For one thing: nuclear materials are largely not “made” – they are concentrated and/or accelerated. While breeder reactors exist, the vast vast majority of nuclear weapons and/or power comes from naturally occuring material.
Is having all the radiation in a few spots better than having it scattered?
Secondly, the “long run” is stupid particularly in the sense of war. All warfare is damaging in the long run.
I absolutely do not endorse the use of nuclear weapons, but the reality is that they exist.
Good luck turning back the clock if you don’t like it.
There is plenty of footage of destroyed towns/cities/hamlets across the entire Eastern Ukraine. Footage of dead bodies (Ukies, Mercenaries), destroyed equipment are everywhere. The Russian media is very open with their findings – western media and Ukrainian media not so much. The war is real.
It was a good video and Alex’s command of English plus his accent is very much southern England. He speaks English better than most British people.
My reflection is that the BTG is effectively a self contained army driven down to the battalion level. But it can then be scaled up by adding fresh units to it in order to (for example) upweight the infantry component. That is a modular or “Lego” type approach. Super flexible if you really can add and subtract units in such a way with troops who are trained to fight within BTGs.
Alex also mentioned that the incorporation of mobilized soldiers is taking time because they are being trained to operate within BTGs. I guess a benefit of this modular approach is that fresh troops can be brought into existing BTGs that are then augmented. This presumably avoids the drama inherent of forming brand new infantry battalions and then being forced to raid existing units for officers, NCOs and some experienced fighters to avoid them being completely “green”. You can retain the esprit de corps of existing formations.
With respect to alleged Russian incompetence it is sheer garbage. All armies have challenges when they go to war. People forget how tricky western armies found getting mobilized for Iraq and Afghanistan. The UK was so bad that it even used Snatch Land Rovers from Northern Ireland that were totally vulnerable to IEDs. My recollection is that our awesome defence bureaucracy and corrupt war industries took years to sort that out. Context is helpful for cutting through the western propaganda that fixates on small incidents that it then tries to generalize.
Viktor Orban was asked about all this in a recent round table. He did not push back on the Russian “under performance” theme (I suspect he knows reality but why push back and it would not help him to do so) and then said that Russia always takes time to get going but then becomes unstoppable. Feels a fair reflection from the history of The Great Northern War, The Napoleonic War and The Great Patriotic War.
You are one of the few commentators who actually watched the video 🙂
“People forget how tricky western armies found getting mobilized for Iraq and Afghanistan.”
This is a critical point. I remember unarmored humvees, multiple blue on blue incidents, truck driver strikes, huge logistic problems. I am sure there are military pdfs out their detailing all this somewhere. Going to war is always hard and rife with problems.
But remember the last large NATO operation – withdrawal from Afghanistan and what a complete clusterfuck that was. The thought that the people who planned and executed that shitshow are now running WW3 on our behalf is frightening.
War is like a prize fight – you have a plan, then you get punched in the nose.
What is really interesting is the Wagner group. It’s not clear how they operate and they are far more at the front than any Russian Army unit. Engagement with Ukrainians seems to be:-
– Donbass militia used to bear the brunt of it supported by Chechens Akhmat and Cossack units with some Wagner backed by Russian weapons and tech.
– Then after Mariupol, the Cossacks and Akhmat seemed to step back and it’s been largely Donbass, Wagner and Russian reconnaissance and special forces.
– Now it seems mainly Wagner leading, e g. Soledar, with Donbass support and Russian Army moving quietly into positions at the back and massing in Belarus. The scale of Wagner activity is top hat impressive.
Just looking at the table it looks like Russia is waiting for the Ukraine front line to collapse, that has already started, the Western aid / tanks at this stage are meaningless. There is also finally open dissent, collapse and disarray at the government and military leadership level.
My guess would be once that collapse, militarily and politically happens there will be a final offer for surrender terms or coup.
This war is like a Jumanji woodblock tower game, Russians are pulling out the lower pieces and collapsing the foundations of the military and state in Ukraine without smashing the board to pieces. It’s an extraordinarily difficult and patient approach if that’s what they are doing.
Ultimately the West simply won’t have enough pieces to play with. And it doesn’t understand the game.
The options for the West will be all in or get out. Europe may go all in as there is genuine fear the Russians will seek revenge for what they have done.
Either way they will face the same issues. Degraded power, train, road, systems, bridges and morale and no defense against hypersonics. The one track from inside Poland that supplies Ukraine would be hit straight off. Lack of airpower, can the West fight without air support? It can be replaced by longer range missiles, drones and sea attacks. But none of these are designed to hold ground long term.
It would make sense to therefore turn part of West Ukraine into a Ukranian depleted poison zone if it comes to that to prevent anyone living there. Or a north south Korea type demilitarized zone if Russia agrees. All noise indicates at some point NATO will be forced to make an open move. What role will Wagner play then. Possibly move to help secure Serbia, Iran and Belarus as the Russian Army finally steps in.
Also, I am guessing what West is stating they are supplying is a underestimate of what they are actually sending.
BTW, tunnel vision, damn it.
With all the fuss about tanks for Ukraine – which brands got mentioned time and again?
Leopard, Abrams, Challenge, LeClerc.
All and every of the Western brands, right?
Wrong. There also are Merkava tanks lineage.
Yet not a single whisper about them, not a single attempt at shaming Israil into supplying tanks or even just a slightest musing about posibility.
Yeah, well the Israelis know which sides their bread is buttered on. They probably don’t trust the Yanks to stand up in the final scenario, but they know that if Russia were to go all out in support of Syria and Iran, then that would be the end of the Crusader State.
“This war is like a Jumanji woodblock tower game, Russians are pulling out the lower pieces and collapsing the foundations of the military and state in Ukraine without smashing the board to pieces. It’s an extraordinarily difficult and patient approach if that’s what they are doing.”
Well said.
” … can the West fight without air support?”
Can anybody? Also, what defines air support 21st century? In the Age of the Satellite and the Missile, you have space based assets and drones, and the layer in-between, once known as air supremacy/dominance, has been eliminated.
In other words, the 5th generation fighter, and the 6th, and whatever comes after, are obsolete. Besides, who needs em, when missiles and guided rockets have a Circular Error Probability these days, often measured in inches.
And the modern kamikaze, the absurdly cheap but deadly unmanned killer drone, seems to be the most accurate system of them all.
Does anyone think that this US government will admit the USA took an ass kicking in Ukraine- no matter how ridiculous they sound and look? The white house would spin Russia puling their ambassador from DC.
I am sure they would BS the sinking of an aircraft carrier or attack by Russia on a foreign based base. 40-50 percent of the country will believe what is spun. California, 55-60%.
“Underestimating one’s enemy, particularly in war, is not only dangerous but carries some unpleasant lethal consequences for the person or persons making such a mistake.”
Exactly, and really that has been the most galling aspect of this war so far, hasn’t it, the blatant disregard for the enemy’s capabilities.
I can handle the absurdities and contradictions of The Narrative, I have so much experience with them at this point (don’t we all?), I’ve come to rather enjoy their roll outs. What fairy tale will they come up with next? I wait in tremulous anticipation!
But will anyone in the west recognize that since April, the Russian army has played almost no role in this war other than as an emotional support group for its proxie forces? Now the west readily admits, the Russian Federation has by some … MIRACLE (!!!) …been able to force a bloody, grinding, WWI-style meatgrinder stalemate in Ukraine, but what do they think will happen if the Russian army gets involved?
Do any of our retired Generals on CNN have any thoughts on this?
Note: It strikes me the BTG is a mini-version of the integrated space to ground umbrellas that Col. Macgregor feels are necessary to for a modern army to make forward progress.
All assets must stay under the umbrella at all times, if they want to live to fight another day.
It also strikes me that the Russians went into this war without a drone component for their BTGs. What do military men do all day? Do they not have access to YouTube?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjRb6u_PQwQ
How could anyone with a military mindset watch a Chinese drone celebration and not immediately consider their potential battlefield applications? Nearly 400 years ago, the Commanche took one look at the horse and realized this mobile weapons platform would make them the undisputed masters off all lands they would choose to call their own.
Forewith and forevermore!
Well, they got the first part right anyway.
The Chinese drone celebration gives an insight as to what a carrier group approaching China will face.
But don’t forget that China is a backward country, a collapsing economy, with a military even more incompetent and out-dated than the Russians. US “experts” say there is no need to worry, we got this.
But we know US wars are not about winning, its about the endless war (hence the continual underestimating of the enemy, the actual enemy is essentially irrelevant). But why these idiots decided to take on Russia and China, instead of sticking to the usual 3rd world shitholes, is beyond me. Seems like they are sabotaging their own multi decade grift with these grandiose plans. Odd.
Interesting assessment 🙂 To answer you question about why the imbeciles in DC try to contain Russia and China is, because they are about to loose their grip on their hegemony, especially their worthless and abused reserve currency and of course the power to tell any other country what to do and how. Yes, the bully is being slapped silly. And yes, there is no way in hell the US can do anything about that. They even could not stabilize Afghanistan and luckily failed to seize control of the ME, unfortunately destroying a lot and murdering hundreds of thousands ordinary people either directly or by sanctions. This time they are throwing Nato in front of the bus and have noting to throw at China, although they try hard to form an alliance to do so. China is therefore sitting idle and watching Russia deal with that mess the US and their vassals are creating. If needed, China will take action. I believe that. They are in the same situation as Russia.
Is now or never. The US is done, they have a long way to finally acknowledge that. Be sure they will use every dirty move they can to somehow keep their hegemony. This has catastrophe written all over it. Now they do everything possible to weaken Russia, to the last Ukrainian, Pole (mercenaries) and whoever/whatever they can get their hands on to throw at Russia. We are at the stage where they want to send tanks. It’s still on, this is not the end, not by far. Remeber when Bides opposed tanks, now it’s ok. Let’s see if they give those idiots in 404 real nukes … whatever, it feels possible to me.
You should read/listen to the excellent book ‘Kiev 1941’ by David Stahel. It’s an excellently researched and presented argument that the vaunted Nazi war machine was anything but in the aftermath of the unquestioned major victory at the Battle of Kiev. The victory was the model definition of Pyrrhic, as the Nazi armor and supply vehicle fleet was in shambles and the logistical system broken to such a degree the war was certainly lost by August 1941. Highly recommend it, its connection to current events is undeniable.
The Nazis depended on horses to provide the majority of their transport facilities (apart from trains) throughout WWII. So the logistics problem was basically broken before they began. It’s amazing that they got so far!
The Donbass Devushka podcast with Big Serge is very good. It’s on Spotify.
i was blown away by this entire video.two minutes in it was obvious Brians guest was a superior intellect.I struggled to keep up with his dialogue.The west is totally screwed!
In the interview they mentioned the decision taken by the Russian Government to (re-)introduce basic military training in high schools for both boys and girls. I just wonder what the warmongering EU elites think about the initiative (since we are supposedly at war with Russia) …
Source:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/08/russian-army-endorses-return-of-soviet-era-school-military-training-reports-a79314
Someone clue me in please, on why it is so difficult for the Russians to find these Himars and destroy them. Ukrainians again shelled civilian and hit a bridge using Himars. I have almost come to the conclusion the Russians are permitting a certain level of damage by the Ukrainian military.
I think it was Doug MacGregor who said that NATO had NATO teams in charge of moving and hiding the HIMARS (and likely “assist” in operation). They wait for a satellite/surveillance coverage gap to move and fire, then hide (which is likely a hospital or other civilian facility the Russians are reluctant to hit.)
Thanks dodgy … I had wondered what was going on with the Russians not destroying the HIMARS.
The HIMARS has a special cloaking device of Romulan origin, that enables it to render itself invisible the moment any Russian threat detection system locks on to it.
It is similar to the problem the French government* had during the revolutionary period, when authorities there found it nearly impossible feret out 19 British “fops,” who led by the infamous and ever elusive Scartlet Pimpernel, were sewing the seeds of discontent by rescuing treasonous French aristocrats.
“They seek him here, they seek him there / Those Frenchies seek him everywhere / Is he in heaven, or is he in hell?/ That damned, elusive, pimpernel.”
Never underestimate the understated brilliance of American rocket technology, is my takeaway. And no, American rocket technology is not an oxymoron. At least not yet.
*An interim government it turns out.
Jerman Werner von Braun’s American rocket technology you mean.
Himars range and manouverability means that you need a longer range distance missile strike or an airstrike (drone / plane) on the target.
The longer the strike distance usually the longer the time to get into position. Hypersonics and many longer range missiles work best on larger fixed targets. And they are expensive weapons to waste if not hitting. Moving targets at that range are tricky.
The Russians have had some success with sending drones in to scout areas for himars. Not sure how much drones are being used now. S300 have been used horizontally as they can manouver.
Plenty of videos on South Front of HIMARS getting lit up, beginning pretty much the day they arrived in country. Drones hunt them, locate them, loiter above marking target until artillery or missile hits the target. Also, have seen vids of suicide drones taking out HIMARS. So it definitely happens. I check to see if the videos are the same strike from different angles (not sure how that could be done) or some other form of duplication. But seems to me that they are indeed all different strikes. At least a dozen of these on SF since HIMARS were fielded in Ukr.
one way to defeat a btg might be a massive suicide drone swarm.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/26/us-army-drone-swarm/
How to Survive a Drone Swarm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnwiG7USp9c
Devushka is a young maiden.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4792503
I wonder at the gall of the shifting of the narrative in plain sight from, “NATO must defend Ukraine,” to, “NATO is at war with Russia,” to, “Russia and NATO are at war,” as if no one can see it or remember anything from a week ago.
The next logical progression is, “Russia has declared war on NATO.” Like peak oil there is no such thing as peak stupid; new reserves are invariably sought out and tapped.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/01/29/now-receiving-tanks-ukraine-advances-discussions-to-jets-submarines-long-range-missiles/
No such thing as peak stupid. No sooner said than evidence delivered. If you can drive a stick shift a cutting edge attack sub should be no problemo. What could possibly go wrong.
Today I heard from State Duma Deputy Matveichev that Russia is in the first round of the conflict. We now see only the outlines of the future Great Patriotic War. The fight will be very long. There are still 12 rounds ahead.
Putin at this initial stage does not want to give everything, to reveal all the trump cards, holds reserves.
Excessively liberal laws and connivance to destabilizing processes trains the army, trains society to develop immunity to information fakes, liberal propaganda and alarmist propaganda of turbo-patriots with a touch of leftism.
I’m beginning to believe that NATO is like the Harlem Globetrotters.
They practice / play in a bubble and convince themselves that they are a force to be reckoned with because they got to choose their opponents.
Then along comes a professional team united in their desire to expose the fake team
But the fake team has an ace up their sleeve, they are partnered with the bank of “printer go brrrrr”
Q: What can the pros do to defeat this without killing themselves in the process?
A: Expose the counterfeit banksters so the rest of the neutral world can see how they roll.
So here we are with a rag tag group of players who speak different languages backed by fake money printers and their media lackeys who are thumping their chests out of tune and out of sync.
It’s a disharmonious symphony of shrieks and wailing and threats…
Kinda like the identity politics movement.
They are only united by what they hate – ie TDS
And once they realize they are only held together by thread, the great unraveling will leave a pile of useless debris that will make Bakhmut look like a bonfire.
Am I on the right track Larry?
What I see is modern manufacturing, demographics and energy.
Mass manufacturing with large land and energy infrastructure is what made US. Japan then Korea and now China have taken that and given their own iterations, japan and Korea did it at a time when no other market except the West existed so they were easily asked to commit Hirakari.
Now the genie is out of the bottle, no new tricks to best mass manufacturing. No the internet, computing, AI, Robotics etc doesn’t count and even if they did others are besting US in quality, price and Quantity.
There is nothing left.
The Bio weapons were the last ditch thing but even there the world survived (check out Africa)
What now?
Well India is adding a whole Australia every 2 months
These things matters.
The BTG is another example of the systematic approach the Russians use, as opposed to the reductionist NATO approach. Russia, by virtue of having fought several significant wars for their survival, know war a lot better than the US, who has avoided direct contact on its own soil, and usually relies on others to do the heavy lifting in “real” wars like WWII. In its other conflicts it just acts as a bully.
As Doug MacGregor points out, the US isn’t prepared for a direct, face to face conflict where they have to do the heavy lifting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/macgregor-time-its-different
The panic is setting in with the realization that they’ll lose and everybody will see it, real time, and then it’s all over for the US era. The problem with panic is it leads to unpredictable behaviour, so nukes are very much on the table, but we lose there too.
Russia has the whole system the BTG, modern well-armed forces, refurbished and new bomb shelters all over (they’re already prepared for nuclear attack), anti-missile systems deployed, strike weapons deployed around the world, etc. A systematic approach versus the piecemeal NATO approach that relies primarily on reputation rather than capability.
Systematically speaking, the outcome is already known as in Russia wins here, NATO gets neutered, and the east rises. It only remains to be seen how it plays out. Along the way we’ll see more examples like the BTG of Russian superiority.
As I understand it, the BTG was a temp measure born out of necessity because conscript soldiers cannot be sent outside Russia. So regular Army Brigades gathered all their contract soldiers and much of the Brigades fire power into BTG’s. The BTG thus represented the core of the Brigade.
Now – in my opinion – the BTG’s are largely being reconstituted back into their original Brigade organizations. Mobilized reservists are being used fill out the regiments, brigades and divisions. Cadre from the BTG’s are forming the experienced and tested basis for these reconstituted formations. I believe this is why the mobilization seems to be taking so much time. It takes time to train the individuals and then more time to trainup the coordination in brigades and divisions.
The BTG’s were suitable for low intensity, manuever warfare in low density environments. They will not be suitable for large scale combat. The BTG’s were ultimately a symptom of chronic manpower under resourcing of the entire Russian effort.
We first saw this transition clearly in the fighting in Kherson. At first Ukraines infiltration – flowing water – tactics were successful against widely scattered and relatively isolated Russian units. Then the Russians pulled back and reinforced so that units were able to make contact with friendly units on their flanks and coordinate through higher HQ’s and suddenly the AFU hit a brick wall.
There is a lot of interesting ideas in BTG’s, but it seems to me, that structure is being left in the past as the Russian Army prepares itself for whatever is coming, an even possibly in anticipation of a more direct encounter with Nato.
“The BTG’s were suitable for low intensity, manuever warfare in low density environments. ”
Sums up the first 30 or 40 days of the SMO. Seems to me the Russians used their BTGs like calvary raiders from the American Civil War, only instead of tearing up railroad tracks, wreaking general havoc and stealing beef they were tasked with taking objectives and holding them for a spell.
In some cases they were even expected to coordinate to surround entire cities, which they did, as every major Ukraine city in the northeast was surrounded at one point.
Which leads me to believe it might not be a bad idea to keep the BTG concept on the books, you never know when you might need one.
Good stuff.
Speaking of weird accents….Brian has a non typical American one….Alex I suspect spent time in Australia and I’m surprised no one brought up the fact the Russian BTG had 18 tracked howitzers in it’s battle order and a Brigade combat team has 12 to 18 tracked howitzers…to give a indication of scale ….600 personal opposed to 4500 and same amount of tubes roughly
Sorry…a Brigade combat team (BCT) is the basic manoeuver element of the U.S Army…..I should clarify things abit better
Alex has a British accent. Standard or ‘received’ pronunciation. Likely he was not born in the UK, but likely is of a bilingual family, the mother being British. Alternatively, probably went to the UK at young age, but after the age 7-8 because there is an ever so slight Russian lapse on occasions, ‘R’s and ‘th’s. One does not learn to talk like this from a TV, audiobooks or school in Russia or anywhere I don’t think. Unless a child is put in an English language school from say age 5 onwards, where the lessons are mostly in English, by native British English speakers.
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