NATO is playing a dangerous game that poses a risk of escalating into a nuclear war with Russia. Sorry to ruin your Friday night. NATO is kicking off its annual nuclear weapons exercise today–i.e. STEADFAST NOON. Although this exercise has not been ginned up in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it comes at a delicate time and will have Russia raising its nuclear alert level. While it is true that NATO conducts this exercise every year at this time, it is foolish to pretend that the war in Ukraine is irrelevant. Why? Because NATO is exercising deploying nuclear weapons, arming planes with those weapons and simulating an attack on Russia. Do you think the Russians do not give a shit?
I want you to understand the history behind this exercise. Here is the description from the 2020 version of Steadfast Noon, which the Netherlands hosted:
“Today’s exercise shows that allies are determined to ensure that NATO’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg while visiting Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands for the exercise on Oct. 16. “The purpose of NATO’s nuclear deterrent is not to provoke a conflict but to preserve peace, deter aggression, and prevent coercion.”
This year, the training flights took place over parts of western Europe and the North Sea.
The annual exercise, known as Steadfast Noon, is designed to practice and assess NATO’s nuclear capabilities deployed in Europe. It is planned far in advance and involves more than 50 aircraft from several allied air forces. The aircraft do not carry live bombs during the exercise flights.
The United States deploys an estimated 20 B61 tactical bombs each at Büchel and Volkel air bases, according to the Federation of American Scientists. About 100 U.S. tactical bombs are believed to be deployed at bases in Belgium, Italy, and Turkey.
https://www.anoncandanga.com/nato-nuclear-military-exercise-steadfast-noon/
The seemingly innocuous phrase, “training flights”, is a euphemism for loading with planes with mock up nuclear weapons and sending them on a flight pattern that simulates attacking Russia. Nothing provocative there, right?
Ditto for 2021, which Italy hosted:
NATO announced Monday that it had started its annual nuclear exercise code-named Steadfast Noon. The week-long exercise is taking place over Southern Europe and involves aircraft and personnel from 14 NATO countries.
According to the NATO statement, “Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and refuelling aircraft. No live weapons are used. This exercise helps to ensure that NATO’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.”. . .
The second nuclear base in Italy – Ghedi near Brescia – that might be part of Italy’s hosting of this year’s Steadfast Noon exercise, is currently undergoing several important nuclear weapons related modernizations that are intended to serve the NATO nuclear strike mission for years.
Of the 14 nations involved, Dutch F-16s and German Tornadoes are operating out of Ghedi AB alongside Italian Tornados, while U.S. and Belgian F-16s and possibly Czech Gripen are operating out of Aviano AB.
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/10/steadfastnoon2021/
Belgium and the UK are hosting this year’s version of Steadfast Noon:
Steadfast Noon, as the exercise is known, runs from October 17 to October 30 and will involve 14 countries and up to 60 aircraft of various types, including fourth and fifth generation fighter jets, as well as surveillance and tanker aircraft.
As in previous years, US Air Force B-52 long-range bombers will take part. This year, they will fly from Minot Air Base in North Dakota. Training flights will take place over Belgium, which is hosting the exercise, as well as over the North Sea and the United Kingdom.
https://defbrief.com/2022/10/14/nato-bracing-for-annual-nuclear-exercise-steadfast-noon/
This could be worse. Can you imagine the implications if Poland or Lithuania played host? That would have put potential nuclear war on a hair trigger. I do not know if the planners intended to use Belgium and North Sea air space all along or if the area of operations was changed six months ago.
These exercises normally are planned 18 months in advance. You start with a pre-planning conference, which is then followed by subsequent planning conferences where the scenario is developed and refined. In addition to NATO personnel, the planning process includes contractors who help write the message traffic that simulates communications between affected nations and the NATO chain of command. When the process is complete there is a MSEL–i.e., Master Scenario Events List–that functions like a Director’s script for a movie. The MSEL dictates who does what, when they do it and where they do it.
What makes this year’s STEADFAST NOON so dangerous is that it is occurring while Western threats of using nuclear weapons against Russia are being tossed around carelessly. In fact, Russia is being accused of threatening to use nukes–it has made no such threat–as further justification for carrying on with this exercise.
The smart move by the West, in light of the heightened tensions with Moscow, would have been cancelling the exercise. The West is not smart:
The main part of the manoeuvres would be held more than 1,000km (625 miles) from Russia, said an official from NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“It would send a very wrong signal if we suddenly now cancelled a routine, long-time planned exercise because of the war in Ukraine. That would be absolutely the wrong signal to send,” Stoltenberg told reporters on the eve of a meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/11/nato-chief-says-long-planned-nuclear-exercises-to-go-ahead
Actually, canking the exercise would have eased tensions with Russia. At this point you have to assume that the Russians believe the West is using this exercise as a pretext to attack Russia with a preemptive nuclear strike. While I do not believe that NATO will cross that line, at least not now, this represents an unnecessary provocation when nerves are on edge in NATO and in Russia. Let’s pray that cooler heads prevail.
Please take time to watch Andrei Martyanov’s excellent overview comparing U.S. and Russian nuclear and radar capabilities if you want to understand the potential peril that awaits the world:
:
The desperate Bluff-of a Loser.
The most scary bluff of them all, if they cannot win they don’t want to live. Or too mad to care!
Economics
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/macleod-great-global-unwind-begins
Liz Tosser : tossing like a princess. https.
://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uks-truss-announce-major-u-turn-ditch-tax-cut
Actualy i think that biden and company will do absophucinlutly any thing they can to push back or cancel the up coming november election because tbey know wbat their fate will be if they lose power i do beleive they would start lobbing nukes around if they beleive that the election would stopped because of war…..
Zzzzactly
Larry, I’d be more worried if I was in Europe than Russia.
Given NATO’s performance to date, I can foresee a fighter jet running out of fuel at 30,000 feet and spiralling into the North Sea, a B52 accidentally colliding with a refuelling aircraft over the Atlantic, prior to something going wrong with a missile launch leading to Belgium inadvertently nuking the UK, with the UK retaliatory missile misfiring, doing a U-turn and then hitting London.
Afterwards, everyone will conclude that the exercise was an outstanding success. Abbott and Costello show, NATO style.
Let’s see what happens. Stay safe all in the affected areas.
You made me snort green tea outvof my nose laughing. Then I realized it is not funny.
Thinking Moe, Larry and Corley with nukes.
That would be an outstanding success…..especially the London bit.
To be honest, vapourising London would probably be a good thing for the UK in the long run.
London, no, but I’d think the City of London being knocked out/destroyed would not be a bad thing.
It’d be nice for this to happen before the 350th anniversary of Bacon’s Rebellion. Our Founding Great Great Grandfather would be pleased.
ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE; what if during exercises they pretend some nuclear bomb equipped jet goes off course and crosses russian or ukraine air space and forced russia to shoot it down , at least sparking international incident on the level of cuban missile crisis if not setting off a nuclear exchange tween russia and entire nato?!
Good point. All this can happen and put the guilty on Russian’s shoulders.
One word…”INSANITY”!
Agreed, it does seem that way……………..however, this very ‘human’ condition can be rationalized, by some, as part of game theory in this struggle for world power.
However ‘Un-comfortable’ it may be to read this perspective (https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/10/14/putin-misplays-his-cards-what-could-have-been-a-winning-hand-has-become-the-road-to-armageddon/)……..it gives one the thought that humans (as a species), by their very ‘complex intellectual’ nature are ultimately doomed by their own abilities in ‘complex thinking’!
Humans rarely (nor never) say what they actually mean, they lie and expect everyone to somehow figure out the real message on their own????????????
Eventually this ‘species’ flaw of our ability for ‘complex thinking’ will be the end of our species experiment on this earth.
NATO exercises? You mean, like the THREE(3!) “training exercises” on the DAY of 9/11, so, unfortunately, there were no air assets that could be used to intercept the “hijacked” planes? The exerciseS were Vigilant Guardian, Vigilant Warrior, and Northern Vigilance; notice how they all sound similar? Pure coincidence, of course.
Research it if you doubt me.
So, this NATO exercise was planned 6 months ago, and therefore it’s just another coincidence? Really?
The Rockefeller Institute drafted a plan in 2015 called Operation Lockstep, which outlined the manner in which a democratic society, could be turned into an authoritarian, top-down regime, using, of all things, a GLOBAL PANDEMIC; and Lockstep was released in 2015! OPERATION Northwoods, the plan drafted by the JCS, to “create a pretext” (ie a LIE) to justify going to war with Cuba, was drafted in Mar 1962 (recently declassified in 2005/06?)
Pearl Harbor was planned for over a YEAR, following an attack by British Swordfish biplanes upon the Italian Fleet, at anchor at the port city of Taranto IT, on 13-14 Nov 1940.
NONE of this is “conspiracy theory”, but is searchable, verifiable, DOCUMENTED!
My point? The phrase “routine training maneuvers” means NOTHING! NATO, UN, and the Deep State are DESPERATE to drag the US into what will QUICKLY become a NUCLEAR EXCHANGE, which will destroy the US, all to hide the facts about the WuFlu, “the jab”, the MASSIVE 2020 election fraud, the economic crash of our money, and the problems with the official story about 9/11, which is picking up steam and causing a WHOLE lot of people to ask VERY disturbing questions.
In short, their ENTIRE train is running off the rails, and now, they HAVE to destroy the nation, BEFORE the Nov Midterms (and the MSM will “spin” it, as a Perfect Storm of errors and miscalculations, just like they did with 9/11, and chalk it all up to “Oops”; except THIS time, it will be with nuclear weapons).
When Hitler realized the war was lost, he decided that if the German people were not worthy of his leadership, then they should all burn. Kind of like OUR leadership today.
If they don’t do it, it’s all over for them; and they KNOW it.
God Help Us All….
Believing themselves to be wise…they became fools.
Andrei’s video was fascinating.
Have the Russians found a way to overcome the MAD deterrent? That’s the question I keep asking myself.
I know it was Zhirinovsky, but in 2018 he disclosed that Russia already had an S700 defensive system. True or not true? Who knows, but it makes sense that the Russians would want to develop capabilities to overcome MAD.
I am confident (based on the appearance of these hypersonic weapons and Poseidon) that the Russians already possess offensive and defensive capabilities that they haven’t revealed. The West better watch out.
Veritas Scipio!!! The Russians are indeed in possession of weapons that can negate any potential US nuclear threat to it. The A-235 “Nudol” ABM for example is exactly that. It has both anti-satellite and anti-ballistic missile capabilities. According to reports, testing has been ongoing since 2014, but I’m sure there are more than a few that are operational by now. This is just one that we know of and what about those we don’t know? Even the S-550, which is officially operational, possesses anti-ballistic missile capabilities and is currently guarding Moscow’s airspace as we speak.
The idea of Russia “winning” a nuclear war with the USA based on missile defence is like expecting to survive a high speed head on collision because you have air bags. Hitting a bullet with a bullet is never going to favour the defender. So the USA fires ten warheads at a city and your missile defence gets 80% of them it still means 2 warheads detonate and the rest are turned into radioactive dust and debris spread over a wide area. What if the USA is sneaky and fire a wave of dummy warheads to exhaust Russian SAMs followed by a real attack? Then there are always the submarines. You would have to be a half wit to believe that surviving a nuclear war could ever be described as “winning” even if the other guy got off worse than you.
Yup.
It will start off conventional, likely in a NATO country close to Ukraine (Poland, Lithuania, etc). They will suffer damage by an “unprovoked attack”, and will respond in “righteous defence”, of course. Russia will respond FOR REAL, against a NATO country, and of course, at that point, Russia and NATO will THEN be at war; and then, it will be a “mad-minute”, with EVERYBODY rushing to “push the button”, because nobody wants to get caught with unfired missiles they can’t use. It gets REAL ugly, REAL fast. MAD–mutually assured destruction.
Nobody wants to take the jab anymore (all to reduce the population, of course)?? FINE!! The UN has “other contingencies”, like nuclear war, famine, and [other] pestilence(s) [cooked in a lab by our friends in DARPA, paid-for with OUR tax $].
Jesus is Coming; and WAY sooner than we think.
Get right with God NOW, while you can. You don’t want to miss that train, and be here to see what happens.
Trust me….
Two questions, Dave:
(a) What would the winning US do with the Russian lands polluted for well above one human life span?
(b) How would the winning US protect against the pollutants from Russia reaching its homelands (winds, rains, people)?
There can be no winner in a genuine nuclear exchange, what the protagonists could do however is prove that one or the other has offensive systems that can penetrate the other side’s defences, and defensive systems capable of stopping all or most of the other side’s incoming missiles, these missiles don’t have to carry nukes to start with.
The idea is to establish which side has the ability to penetrate and also to stop the other side penetrating, if any of the two protagonists were to achieve superiority over the other it would logically be a suicide for the other not to give up.
Wouldn’t smart and thoughtful people stand down from such an exercise when there is a war going on nearby? Think about the energy they are wasting that their nations are all going to need next month. They could turn the cancellation into an environmental victory.
Nato is actively waging war in the 404 against the Russians by sending men, weapons and local intelligence. Now, Nato appears to be planning to fly over the battlefield in Ukraine? Just because it is planned. Is there anyone that is trying to talk these war gamers down?
There are some real conflicts with a pleasant reality going forward here.
“Wouldn’t smart and thoughtful people stand down from such an exercise when there is a war going on nearby?”
I thought we were discussing Nato and Washington here.
What if the people in charge were in the end years of their lives and predominantly believed a magic man in the sky was in charge of the world and they were following His wishes? What if they were also narcissists and had the best nuclear shelters? ‘Worried yet?
Scared yes, the only thing those lunatics believe in is themselves and their 12 year old boyfriends
I’m 99.99% certain that the powers that be are not the kind of people who believes in anything bigger than themselves, let alone a personal God. Your post reminds of me of some anti-Iranian neocon talking point. You’re barking up the wrong tree.
Easier to spray biological weapons that way too.
Its interesting they are training using B61 bombs. These are gravity bombs which would require the aircraft to get relatively close to the target to drop. how would we expect to get that far into Russian air defense bubbles to actually successfully drop these things. Is the hope that an F-35 can get in undetected.
The longevity of weapons design is astonishing. The B61 model thermonuclear bomb was the primary nuke loaded when I was in the Strategic Air Command literally half a century ago, and the B-52’s flown today were the same aircraft SAC was flying then. You could in theory have aircrew flying exactly the same tail number plane flown by one of their grandfathers.
Regarding getting close enough, even back then the approach was to fly at near treetop level to penetrate under radar, then do a sharp pull-up and release the bomb to “toss” it while you turn away and scoot.
my late father flew Canberra bombers in the early 1960s in the RAF they used this technique. lo hi lo. I believe the Soviet pilots also used the same tactic
shortly after that he transferred to Valiants, a heavy bomber. During the Cuban missile crisis at one point they were all stood up, fully armed on the taxi ways, engines running and ready to go.
luckily they never did.
luckily sanity prevailed during Able Archer 83 too
when will our luck run out?
I was a student, working vacation bar jobs in Margate hotels during that period. Every morning at precisely the same time, a huge Vulcan bomber literally made the ground shake as it flew low over the town from a nearby inland RAF base; trailing long lines of black smoke, it climbed steadily out across the North Sea to the distant East German coast. Once on station there, it patrolled steadily up and down, forcing the local radar stations to ‘light up’ and recording their locations and frequencies. Then, at precisely the same time each morning, a little later, it reappeared heading back across the North Sea to its home field beyond Margate. This occurred faithfully EVERY day. The local joke was that as long as they arrived precisely on time and departed exactly on time the East Germans, ever punctilious, knew exactly who was ‘visiting’ and what their purpose was and never ever bothered to intercept them. Years later, we learned that this was precisely the British nuclear air strike ‘entry point’ into the Russian heartland for RN Buccaneers trained in this ‘Hi-Lo’ delivery technique and for tightly-grouped V-bombers accompanied by an electronic defence aircraft. Doesn’t really seem that long ago now, but everyone just accepted the madness as part of everyday life back then, just as they seem to do today.
Sounds like a high tech suicide mission.
Tossing a nuke, for the love of mercy. How the hell does the crew drag the arse of a B52 out a tree top high speed approaching the kill zone, then toss a fee falling, air burst detonation of a nuclear bomb.
It would appear the, “B61 free fall staff welfare plan,” has not improved much over the years.
Eye watering to the point of making a “persons,” mascara run wild down his/her/them & it’s cheeks.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I think it’s mostly NATO being stupid enough to think that they can intimidate Russia, and perhaps even scare Russia into launching a first strike. I don’t see Russia falling for it. And Russia’s air defense can stop our missiles, but we can’t stop theirs.
Aaron, who’s the desperate bluffer? Russia? They haven’t threatened nukes if they don’t win – only if their continued existence is at risk. Besides Russia will win in Ukraine.
i still think nato can opt for a false flag attack with tactical nuclear weapons, yes, that sounds crazy. Europe would have no chance against a retaliation, Russia with confidence in its superior air defense systems and hypersonic capacity plus the geographical dispersion of its large cities could hit the United States at strategic points and have an advantage, it seems crazy, what do you think?
Would we plain citizens even become aware if this happened? The internet would be down. Electricity impaired. That is all we could notice.
Dear Sentient,
My sincere apologies if I did not make myself clear.
I was referring to America and NATO. They are in manic denial of their foolish own goal.
Russia is fighting for their home land and their little children against a Nazi military that would recreate the death camps. Apparently no one in the combined west can see the truth. Or maybe they don’t care.
Russia did not ask for the war, America was begging Russia to start a war. They got what they asked for and it’s going to make the world turn towards a better future and destination.
Vietnam, Syria, Afghanistan plus Syria, Venezuelan, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and now the Ukraine slaughter . It’s over but NATO cannot accept it. So the madding crowd will decide this wars end and the western politicians fate. Hope l have made amends.
Let’s presume that this man means what he says and says what he means. I also hope his words are heard. (Bold my emphasis)
Abbreviated version of the statement delivered in February 2022 from V. Putin, President of Russia.
I want to emphasise again that all responsibility for the possible bloodshed will lie fully and wholly with the ruling Ukrainian regime.
I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history. No matter how the events unfold, we are ready. All the necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope that my words will be heard.
You gotta wonder what the russians make of this, given that they have to have noticed, as we have, that many major events, like 9-11, have taken place at the exact moment that an excersize simulating the event was taking place.
I was thinking the exact same thing myself. We are surely not the only ones.
No doubt they have noticed that but also certainly looking elsewhere while NATO
tries to execute a distraction.
“The West is not smart:”
Pretty much sums it up.
The real risk is a repeat of Able Archer 83, with Brandon instead of Reagan, and without the good luck.
Links update:
https://sonar21.com/from-steadfast-noon-to-one-minute-to-midnight-going-nuclear/
President Putin,
Above is another brilliant article by Larry Johnson. Below are some interviews with Russians ‘experts:’
https://rebelarmy.com/audio/RFM-2008-08-12-AleksandrGrigoriev.mp3
https://rebelarmy.com/audio/RFM-2008-08-11-RobertMaginnis.mp3
https://rebelarmy.com/audio/RFM-2008-08-11-AlexandrNemets.mp3
I request that you pull strings at RT and get them to hire me.
Here is what the local establishment thinks of me: https://rebelarmy.com/audio/policethreat.mp3
I would trump everyone at RT now. A real American, a common man who opposes endless wars and wants to be friends with Russia.
Consider that Col. Oliver North once flew me to DC because I am a Rebel to appear on national TV! I never heard from the media again because my presentation was superior to their propaganda.
Jim Giles
Radio Free Mississippi
Wars today are not the wars that Hollywood depict. Or– may they are — in the sense that today’s wars, at least in the “Free World” are made-for-your-smartphone media events. Nuclear weapons are not only useable today in a Lose-Lose scenario. The US would have used them against Russia after WWII but they estimated they need a lot more than they had — and then the USSR got its own. So MAD prevented their use — with the Soviets showing the most restraint. Still, nuclear weapons are like a Maserati that you don’t drive on city streets and keep in the garage as a status symbol. The US likes to point and say, “See, I have one!”. Now NATO is pointing to the nuclear option. Only it doesn’t own the Maserati. It lives in the house as a servant. This war today is really about “multipolarity”. And Russia and China are winning as I say here…. https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/one-earth-many-worlds
NATO plans are the following:
Nuke narrative is exactly the same as ”Russia will invade soon” in last february, of course they knew it was going to happen because they started to increase bombing of Donbass as of 16 th of Feb on purpose.
The narrative is in fact: ”Putin is losing, he is desparate, he will use tactical nuke etc..”
Russia never talked about any use of nuke(tactical or not) out of her doctrine which is available to everyone, no first strike(contrary to US), except if national territory is striked or in imminent danger to be.
I think the NATO false flag will happen probably or near Kherson,where tonight around 60k(??) forces are regrouping to try to take this City(don’t forget Kherson is Russia now for..Russia but not for NATO), or in ZNPP in this case it would be a ‘civil nuclear’ false flag(they tried for three months and again today) It is clear that this new(probably last) desperate ukie counter offensive with all proxies including mercenaries, jihadists from ISIS, Al Quaeda etc…, will be heavily striked…(it seems to be a 1/3 ‘nato’ though maybe 20k (?) And 2/3 ukies, nazis etc…).
They are going to be largely destroyed which could provide Nato with the ideal plausible deniability pretext not to be nuked by Russia but the opposite to nuke Kherson or simply thousands of RU troops to ‘test’ RU reaction and of course accuse RU to nuke poor ukies..count on 150 % msm support and propaganda for this narrative which is already printed and ready to be delivered to journos.
Borell EU Mfa de facto, yesterday said one more stupidity ” we will anihilate Russians’ if they use nuke”..How can this senile idiot be allowed to say that openly yesterday on tv?
Best chance is finaly the NATO exercises will take place in.. Belgium which is host country of the all NATO EU EUPARL SHAPE etc…maybe they will not take the risk to be nuked in return, all these eurocrats, natocrats etc living in the middle of the action, it would be suicidal, I don’t see them risking to lose their big salaries, confort, top penthouses, their families etc..
Let’s hope…
SHOCKING Al Qaeda and ISIS truth in Ukraine is coming out
https://youtu.be/aY6gP3xF3Tg
MSELs are silly… they’re designed to highlight Blue capabilities while drastically constraining Red. They also build and update TTP based on exercises like this one… talk about dumb. Blue projects themselves onto what they think Red Ops would do… it becomes a self-licking ice cream cone. Of course, now, they’re trying to do AI to predict Red Ops and decisions. More insanity. Patton had a phrase for that… something like all plans go to shit upon contact with the enemy. I highly suspect they’re trying to AI Russian nuke decisions based on this exercise… mixed in with some game theory.
Now, logistics can be better predicted… much more highly constrained and numerical. And very important in attrition warfare.
Millenium Challenge 02 with VanRiper playing Red opened my eyes. We had to completely reset and re-do the MSELs. Russia could very well screw up this exercise. But they won’t. It would give away too much info.
Martyanov has been so consistently wrong about everything that I now assume the opposite of what he says is what’s going to happen.
But it has been obvious to me that by not doing a shock and awe campaign followed by a determined attack to destroy the nazi regime in February/March, Russia has the full responsibility for having created this current crisis where NATO is now emboldened to openly send not just weapons but “volunteers” – obviously NATO regular forces in Ukrainian uniform- to fight. Meanwhile by stripping the front of soldiers and giving up territory Russia has made it easy for NATO to create a false flag nuclear strike on its own Ukranazi puppets and blame it on Russia “being driven to desperation”.
Consistently wrong? You clearly have not watched his videos. Can you point out what you consider to be his errors?
I don’t watch videos but I have been reading him for years.
Martyanov was a Soviet Coast Guard midlevel officer in 1990 who acts as though that makes him an expert on the ground war in Ukranazistan in 2022.
Among his Greatest Hits:
“NATO didn’t know real war.”
NATO knows real war, as carried out these days, perfectly well; real war consists of regime change and internal subversion, buying off media, and of course bioweapons to attack the enemy from within with plausible deniability.
“NATO is terrified of Russia”.
That’s why it’s flooding Ukranazistan with not just weapons but regular troops in Ukrainian uniform posing as “volunteers”, is it?
“Russia is ahead of everyone in missile technology”
Irrelevant when the enemy isn’t fighting missile to missile.
“Russian Telegram channels which criticise the way the war is being fought don’t know anything and/or are ‘6th columnists’.”
Yeah, sure, and some obese blowhard armchair general sitting on the other side of the planet knows better.
“Russia is withdrawing from irrelevant empty space”
Like Kherson city, which, if reports are to be believed, is being evacuated right now?
“Russia is about to spring a pincer counteroffensive on Kharkov.”
Still waiting one month after he blocked me for questioning this claim.
“It’s BS to say that Russia needs or is buying Iranian drones.”
No comment necessary.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Martyanov is still an expert…
…on the Soviet Coast Guard in 1990.
Many thanks for the insight into the thinking and assumptions of the USA/NATO.
“NATO didn’t know real war.”
NATO doesn’t know real war because it has never fought a peer, If you constantly beat up the weak kid in the school guess what that doesn’t make you strong.
“NATO is terrified of Russia”.
NATO may or may not be scared/terrified of Russia. Consider this, if NATO believed it could win a fight against Russia (due to MAD that’s likely to be never but let’s think outside of MAD no nukes) it would be boots on the ground, sky is closed etc. DAY ONE not Day 300. You think NATO thought twice when they went into Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan or Yugoslavia?
“Russia is ahead of everyone in missile technology”
“Irrelevant when the enemy isn’t fighting missile to missile.”
What does this even mean? Does Ukraine not have OTR’s (Theater Ballistic Missiles)? Did NATO not send HARM or HIMARS? Russia has high intercept efficacy on these with their AD systems. Yes NATO is sending AD systems now but they have to be in Ukraine right now, not tomorrow crossing the border or unpacking at ports waiting for a Geran-2 or cruise missile to lodge up its ass.
“Russian Telegram channels which criticise the way the war is being fought don’t know anything and/or are ‘6th columnists’.”
This goes for most media not just TG, Martyanov mentions that Russian media constantly bring “military experts” that have no clue about current Russian Armed Forces capabilities and have no security clearance. Russian TG either have no military, let alone higher officer service, experience or are doing it for money/status. There are a lot of Russian TG channels that post absolutely “Ukraine says” unverified information and cause panic in Russian population only to be proved wrong the next week or 2.
“Russia is withdrawing from irrelevant empty space”
Russia has already showed since the start of this SVO (SMO) that it is willing to trade land for saving their soldiers lives and not make suicide holds like AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) does. Why is this STILL a conversation.
“Russia is about to spring a pincer counteroffensive on Kharkov.”
I’ve never read or heard Martyanov state this, maybe I missed it.
“It’s BS to say that Russia needs or is buying Iranian drones.”
To this day there is 0 EVIDENCE that Russia is using Iranian drones, this is all Western propaganda (specifically U.S). They’re Geran-2 (unofficially). Russia has its own drones R&D and production, they don’t need to go to Iran they can get parts from Iran (COTS – Commercial off-the-shelf or MilCOTS) if that means it’s cheaper to produce.
You may call Martyanov an “armchair general” but from your comments it seems the reverse. Martyanov comments from experience, studied knowledge. He never claims he knows what is truly the goal or plan, he speaks with the information and knowledge he has and yet he draws your ire?
I too initially expected shock and awe, not necessarily quick captures of Kiev and Kharkov, but massive offensives by Tank Armies to cut Ukraine in three, one East of the Dnepr to cut off Donbass, and one West from West bank of Kiev and North from Kherson, and then surrender of the Ukrainian forces hopelessly cut off in the cauldrons.
Russia had the forces necessary, if it had chosen to go all in.
This would have been a “win”.
But Ukrainian casualties would have been far lower, and the objectives of Denazification and Demilitarisation likely would not have been achieved.
There would likely have been a sense of betrayal by leadership and NATO, too many “if only….” excuses,which would only provide motivation for the die hard bitterenders, i.e., extreme nationalists/Nazis to sustain a major insurgency.
There would have been many trained Ukrainians available to wage a NATO supported insurgency.
But instead, by taking it slow, the Russians are grinding down the Ukrainians, destroying he Ukrainian Army and killing the fanatics.
In the end, the victory will be decisive, overwhelming and indisputable. Most of the Nazis will be dead, and no one will want to listen to any who survive.
The Russian General Staff chose attrition over shock and awe because it is the most certain way to decisive, indisputable victory, and given their manpower, equipment and logistical advantages, it is also the most economical in Russian lives.
I think everyone thought that, especially the US. It made perfect sense. Except that doing so would have left a lot of Ukrainian military in the field. Like Iraq 03 when the US had to through/around to make Baghdad in three weeks. That would have left Russia with a serious insurgent capability and been just the sort of mess the US wanted. Instead the US got this and is, by all accounts now, running itself out of munitions for no substantial success.
Your arguments are against the person of Martyanov, it is the typical fallacy “Ad Hominen” (attack the person); you also make fun of Martyanov for his military positions, with the fallacy “argumentum ad verecundiam”, that is, the fallacy of “authority” because you think that someone who is not a “military god” has no ideas and cannot give reasons. With that, you expose your argumentative shortcomings by attacking others and not their ideas.
The Cold War ended in 1990. NATO should have, too. The real threat to Europe is the hordes of Africans and Asiatics/Asians pouring in, in an unchecked flood. Which NATO seems unable, or unwilling, to stop.
Lol, as though the obese slob doesn’t use ad hominem as his default state. Like when the slobbering little Internet napoleon blocked me after calling me a paid shill for saying Russia rushing troops from Moscow proved that the so called “brilliant trap” hypothesis had no factual basis? I didn’t insult the flatulent fat fool, I just said his claim didn’t hold up.
“NATO knows real war, as carried out these days, perfectly well; real war consists of regime change and internal subversion, buying off media, and of course bioweapons to attack the enemy from within with plausible deniability.”
Which are all undermined when deniability is not deemed plausible by others, rendering conflations of attempt/achievement necessary in increasing reflexes, facilitating further opportunities of transcendence to others.
Thank you for your continuing service – I note that you apparently don’t need to increase your stock of mirrors since you appear to be well supplied in that regard.
LOL! I don’t really care for him either, he’s no Larry. I find his videos quite boring. Similarly to that imbecille of Gonzalo Lira. I still want to know why the Ukrainians did not disappear him. I do like Brian Berletic and I also don’t care much for that Alex Christofaru dude and his videos.
My guess is these NATO iron bombs are Neutron Bombs.
Any insight ?
Bollocks
Today I saw that Strelkov, whom Martyanov hates, just volunteered – again – to fight at the front with a volunteer regiment.
Let Martyanov dare get off his adipose-padded behind, journey home to Russia, and sign up, and I’ll apologise to him.
Until then, he is a despicable blowhard with no integrity whatsoever.
Most people commenting on this conflict have been wrong at some point or another. Look at Alex Mercouris – he mocked Ukraine for lack of Kherson offensive and they attacked (does not mean they are successful in strategic terms). He consistently expressed doubt about HiMARS systems being able to destroy the bridges/roadways in Kherson but it appears they degraded the capacity of the Russians to use these significantly. There are many other “holes” you can find in many commentators’ views. Not because they are incompetent but a) because they do not have all the info, b) because Russian moves have been very unpredictable (unlike USA/EU/UK – we knew they would impose sanctions and engage in proxy war) and c) because people invariably take sides.
However, none of the above is anywhere near the obvious rah-rah cheering and spreading of nonsense by western “commentators” like Petraeurs or Wesley Clark or the myriad of paid mouthpieces that get their 5+ minutes on western TV. It is a worn out song designed to conceal the real cost of the largely strategically unsuccessful Ukrainian struggle. I don’t see you picking those apart like you did Martyanov (I agree, he is annoying a bit and his hatred of everything western is not concealed). What qualifications as a general does Wesley Clark have? A hands-off bombing campaign against an inferior enemy in Serbia with no boots on the ground? What about Petraeus? What are his conventional all-out frontline war credentials?
As for your comment that essentially equates color revolutions with wars, that’s just laughable and is an exact illustration of the fact that NATO has long equated regime change via NGO/color revolutions/propaganda as “war” and got lulled into thinking that they can do the same in Russia. I, for one, think that they found that they cannot not. Ask Draghi, BoJo, Liz Truss and I think many other EU leaders to experience their own regime change….
It’s not that NATO got the military strategy wrong, Ukrainie are still in the game, Zekensky well under control, they got the economic strategy wrong, once sanctions failed to achieve the goals they doubled down and that exponentially damaged their economies.
They lost this war at the economic sanction stage. The military exercise then took on a different level of importance and unpredictability, in that Russia let them back in the military game and they are trying to take full advantage of that in order to also salvage the economic and geo political position
Re Martynov, he is entertaining and interesting in my view but clearly biased and intolerant of any questions of Russia strategy. He seems to think anyone who studied Western liberal arts or politics is an idiot. However in war matters it’s really practical military experience of conflict sits that counts. The views of DPLR, Wagner and Chechen leaders are instructive.
Russia is very obviously is using rebranded Iranian shahed drones. No shame in that.
Explain one thing, BP, please:
When Assad’s regime of Syria was close to collapse in the late Spring 2015 Assad asked Putin for help, Putin did even though the two countries aren’t members of the same alliance, Assad’s regime continues to this day.
Why cannot the drug addict in Kiev ask NATO to do exactly what Russia did for Assad?
What’s stopping the alliance (really a cover for the US Armed Forces) from joining the fray? After Afghanistan the Americans badly need to be successful, can you imagine the boost to the Dems for the November election if NATO were to officially send troops to Ukraine, beat Russia back not just to what the the east of Ukraine was before Feb 24 but fully, liberating Donbas, taking Crimea over.
Crimea was why the Americans orchestrated the coup against Yanukovych who beat Yushenko in 2010 (if Yushenko, who was President from 2005 to 2010, were to be more pro-American he would have had to become the citizen of the US, google for what Yushenko did to tie up Ukraine with the US).
When the special op by Russia began in Feb 24 the NATO Rapid Response units stationed in the west of Europe (Germany, Holland mostly) didn’t;t move an inch east? Why? If you were to read Polish, you would would read and listen to how upset the Poles were, they couldn’t understand it, offered to move to Ukraine themselves, Pentagon strongly objected. Why?
You recall the column moving towards Kiev then stopping on the outskirts of the city? Why wasn’t the column attacked, nobody touched it, it was a sitting duck, NATO made no effort to hit it, what was stopping the alliance from destroying it?
NATO or rather the Americans have been avoiding the Russian Forces because as things stand Russia has superior gear in the missile department both on the offensive and the defensive side, most of the American missiles were designed in the 70s and 80s, check it out, admittedly improved and updated, but anywhere near what the Russians have, Putin scrapped the old Soviet tools of killing, it was mostly crap, the new range beats what the Americans possess, hence the $777.7bn budget, to catch up with the Russians.
Again, why doesn’t NATO join the fighting?
I agree that this exercise should most definitely be canceled given the context.
There are several scenarios where this could lead to a nuclear conflict both on purpose and accidentally. I’ll give a couple of examples.
“On 29 August 2007, six AGM-129 ACM cruise missiles, each loaded with a W80-1 variable yield nuclear warhead, were mistakenly loaded onto a United States Air Force (USAF) B-52H heavy bomber at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and transported to Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana.”
Huge mistake but these kinds of accidents are not supposed to possible, but clearly they happen.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_States_Air_Force_nuclear_weapons_incident
I have a nuclear war survival skills manual published for the oakridge nation laboratory. In chapter three examples of types of warnings that a nuclear war might be eminent are listed. I find the strategic warning very interesting:
“For example, we would have a strategic warning if a powerful Russian army were advancing into Western Europe and Soviet leaders were threatening massive nuclear destruction if resisting nations should begin to use tactical nuclear weapons”.
If this were a last chance saloon type scenario and the Neocons thought that a large Russian Army was about to decisively end the conflict in Ukraine; would they try to turn the tide with limited use of tactical nuclear weapons? Would they think the Russians not serious about retaliating with a full scale exchange?
I’m not sure. These neocons seem to be a crazy bunch.
It’s pretty tense even to talk about these possibilities.
Most Interesting is the current raucous political debate in Germany over continuing to run 3 Nuke power plants and absolute silence on hosting hundreds of nuclear weapons in-country.
So no offramp for NATO, despite the talk? Hmmm. Its almost as if NATO is schizophrenic (and stoopid).
NATO’s nuclear weapons rattle is unfolding under one of three possible scenarios.
1) The worst scenario – an actual nuclear attack on Russia. Under Operation False Flag, the West will stage an “attack” by Russia on Ukraine and then respond “preemptively”. It will be the end of the world, but I have no doubt that there are “brains” in Washington and Brussels who think that the West can win such a war.
2) The threat of nuclear war as part of the exit strategy from Ukraine. At some point, reasonable people in the West will realize that Russia cannot lose in Ukraine. The threat of nuclear war will be maximized for publicity, but it will actually be a means of de-escalation, an end to the war, and the creation of some sort of Korean demarcation line in Ukraine.
3) The most likely scenario – a threat to domestic use. The West has reached economic collapse due to sanctions against Russia and insane money printing. Millions of people are losing their jobs and the standard of living they were used to. Inflation destroys what they have saved all their lives. A rebellion of the people is possible. However, then their executioners will appear, this time in the role of benefactors, who will tell them: “Forget about your job, your savings, we saved you from a nuclear war that was imminent.” Klaus Schwab like this.
NATO Nuclear Exercise
News of massing of troops at Kherson and LPR borders
A failing economy
A splitting EU
Upcoming elections
An “enemy” that does not seem to be failing
Given what happened
a) at NS2,
b) at the Zaphoryzhe NPP,
c) with the Azovstal prisoners,
d) Daria Dugina,
e) Crimean Bridge,
f) persistent shelling of DPR/LNR civilians,
g) distribution of “petals” into civilian areas
I wouldnt rule out anything from the US-EU-UKR military camp.
However, I would also point out that RUS and China also does military exercises while the SMO was ongoing, so the execution of a military exercise isnt that unusual. This of course, is nuclear.
Also, looks like there are some hiccups in the RUS mobilization- not surprised, since the mobilization department of any army is typically the most ‘underused’…
I’m reminded of some dimly remembered Golda Meir quote something like
‘I would sacrifice the world to save Is-real’
in reference to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
which is sort of along the line of an old saw of “I’d rather be dead than red”
-as in having loyalty to an ideology to the point of murder/suicide.
I wonder how many crazies with this stance are at the choke points of power?
I.e. Is Z for instance, criminaly insane for asking for pre-emptive nuking?
How many of these crazies are there and how did they get to their stations?
How many would follow through
on a stated intention to push the death button in a losing situation like L. Truss?
I just hope the naval commanders of the “boomer” subs
…”love their children too”..
hello joe
i believe the real samson option is called talpiot from the cyber world. yu can look it up if yu like
cheers,
ralph
The only relevant question is: Under what conditions will the West stop “Poking the Bear”?
After a nuclear war?
And what does Putin expect from the West?
To abandon the Wolfowitz doctrine as a minimum, Roland, google for it, and to fugg off from Europe, as Mutti (Merkel) said at the recent celebration of the German paper Süddeutsche Zeitung in Munich in September ‘Europe’s security cannot be without Russia in’, to which Baron would add it could be, better still, it must be with the US out.
Saber rattling, beating pans is all NATO has left for Ukraine when low cost Russian drones are being used in the middle of Ukraine to take out targets. No need for Russia to use expensive to rebuild ‘shock and awe’. ‘Shock & Awe’ is for US Neo Lib-Cons to create multi $Trillion War Rebuild Grift. Russia does not have such massive, greedy MIC to feed, besides, Russia bombing Ukraine to ruin would be like Kansas bombing Nebraska to ruin.
Washington, DC Pols & lobbyists are only interested in money, not risking their valuable hides & Russia knows this.
Besides, once English Royals saw the Poseidon & its tidal wave they were done with the talk of nuke war. Truss was finished after her readiness claim to push the red button.
Intel Slava with no details added, just very cautiously mentioned possible Ru retreat, while reports the Kherson offensive was started by Ukies. Any info how the attack is devolpoping? Pls. no references to Baghdad Bobs, such are Mr. Arestovich in Kiev, Mr. Saker and Mr. Martyanov in the USA. Btw. It is said that Mr. Strelkov went to the front, joining a volunteer batallion. It seems that the tough censorship is being introduced in Ru.
I think we are heading towards a nuclear war possibly not against Europe but in the Middle East where we have a lot of Gordian knots to untie. The West does not have enough troops to impose itself anywhere, it is easier to “fumigate” entire countries and more easily control the survivors for their exploitation, it would send a warning to the countries south of the USA that they would once again kneel before America . I could be wrong but if NATO says that the “Bomb” is to stop Russia, will it really be like that and not against another more strategically important?
IS NATO GOING NUCLEAR?
https://sonar21.com/interviewed-by-rt-and-an-essay-on-the-economic-pain-that-is-coming/
IsItJustForTheMomentWeLive says
14 October 2022 at 10:21
“Hence transcending restricting perceptions require lateral analyses/strategies to inform perceptions of the interactions of the facilitation of Covid 19 and the Russian Federation’s Presidential decree 355 of 3rd June 2020, why the Jewish lady who forgot the salt on Independence Square likely increased her stock of incontinence pads before/after being “interrogated” by Mr. Rubio ( since clones have a tendency to look alike not restricted to nice suits, shiny shoes/teeth, and “winning smiles”), and some of what’s it all about Alfie.”
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/10/14/dead-hand-vs-dead-brain/
“The computer simulations that NATO uses to practice various war strategies and tactics and their combinations completely lack algorithms that could take into account the famous Russian soul because it cannot be represented simply as a series of numerical parameters. “
not restricted to “soul” , and consequently the computer simulations/”virtual realities” are based upon linear self-projections within pre-determined frames/paradigms/purposes – sometimes known as copy books to differentiate them from colouring books – part of the reasons why in 1991 some crossed Lubyanka Square (using the underpass to avoid the requirement of looking left then right before crossing) to stock up on mirrors at Children’s World in anticipation of waiting for GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage out), which often made an appearance facilitating useful foolery, unlike that ill-mannered “evil-doer” Godot who never turned up, leading some to ponder whether Godot was a figment of someone’s imagination.
“- sometimes known as copy books to differentiate them from colouring books – “
Resort to tradition is a popular response of some when agitated/scared.
Mr. Strauss ran away to “The United States of America” when agitated/scared, but Mr. Siegel and Mr. Shuster were there already, so when they became agitated/scared they created Superman thereby contributing to the sustainability of D.C. Comics.
“ECONOMIC PAIN”
Focus is a linear paradigm restricting perception – for example to economic pain..
Increasing focus is also a linear paradigm restricting perception – for example to economic pain and the facilitation of Covid 19.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/57284.htm
Hence transcending restricting perceptions require lateral analyses/strategies to inform perceptions of the interactions of the facilitation of Covid 19 and the Russian Federation’s Presidential decree 355 of 3rd June 2020, why the Jewish lady who forgot the salt on Independence Square likely increased her stock of incontinence pads before/after being “interrogated” by Mr. Rubio, and some of what’s it all about Alfie.
IS NATO GOING NUCLEAR?
https://sonar21.com/interviewed-by-rt-and-an-essay-on-the-economic-pain-that-is-coming/
IsItJustForTheMomentWeLive says
14 October 2022 at 10:21
“Hence transcending restricting perceptions require lateral analyses/strategies to inform perceptions of the interactions of the facilitation of Covid 19 and the Russian Federation’s Presidential decree 355 of 3rd June 2020, why the Jewish lady who forgot the salt on Independence Square likely increased her stock of incontinence pads before/after being “interrogated” by Mr. Rubio ( since clones have a tendency to look alike not restricted to nice suits, shiny shoes/teeth, and “winning smiles”), and some of what’s it all about Alfie.”
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/10/14/dead-hand-vs-dead-brain/
“The computer simulations that NATO uses to practice various war strategies and tactics and their combinations completely lack algorithms that could take into account the famous Russian soul because it cannot be represented simply as a series of numerical parameters. “
not restricted to “soul” , and consequently the computer simulations/”virtual realities” are based upon linear self-projections within pre-determined frames/paradigms/purposes – sometimes known as copy books to differentiate them from colouring books – part of the reasons why in 1991 some crossed Lubyanka Square (using the underpass to avoid the requirement of looking left then right before crossing) to stock up on mirrors at Children’s World in anticipation of waiting for GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage out), which often made an appearance facilitating useful foolery, unlike that ill-mannered “evil-doer” Godot who never turned up, leading some to ponder whether Godot was a figment of someone’s imagination.
Much more imminent than any nuclear threat is Russia’s ability to shut down satellite internet & other spying devices. Dima (Military Summary channel) expounded yesterday on the disastrous effects caused by the blocking of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites and the decision of the Russian high command to shut down all frontline video reporting. In this manner the Ukrainian spying capacity is being brought under control and gradually taken out of control. Thus the so-called ‘dull war’ will acquire an even duller outlook.
Before a nuclear threat becomes imminent a lot of (satellite) information has to be gathered. Now it becomes clear that Russia is able to shut UA territory off from satellite internet (which causes panic among the UAF commanders, because they all of sudden have gone insensitive for what is happening on the frontlines) without physically taking down these satellites. Probably Russia will be able to expose US spying satellites to an aligned kind of jamming, therewith cutting the US command from its main source of battleground information. It’s like the cyclops (the US hegemon) loosing his one eye to Odysseus. Well, what will an enraged blinded cyclops do? Therefore it would be better if Russia instead of jamming US satellites would be able to feed them with fake information, therewith prolonging the cyclops reliance on his single source of information.
Jamming is technically much simpler than faking.
I tell you that as an electronic engineer.
As another engineer (with military experience in electronic warfare), I can confirm this.
For the two engineers:
Nevertheless the fortunes for the Ukrainians changed when the Starlink network went fully operational, can it be disabled forever?
Permanently disabling it would require shooting down satellites (3000+), which would be considered an act of war. You can not shoot down a satellite and pretend it wasn’t you, like USA did with pipeline. I don’t think Russians want to escalate to satellite shooting phase anytime soon, and if/when they do they will target more important ones.
I can’t know what kind of jamming capabilities against Starlink Russians have, but I’m sure thery are holding them back for a case of bigger conflict with NATO. They know this whole kerfuffle is just the beginning, and they are still holding lots of stuff back.
While that’s true, it’s also true that Iran was able to spoof GPS well enough to get one of our drones to land where they told it. Some specutlate that was the source of their drone tech now being used by Russia in Ukraine.
Honestly, I don’t worry about NATO anymore. Why? Two reasons:
1) One by one, the NATO countries in EU are going to experience regime change. Look at UK, two regime changes in 3 months. This means no money for any military budgets.
2) Nobody in EU knows how to fight anymore, they are soft. Do you honestly think young metrosexuals in Amsterdam or Berlin or Paris or … are interested in messing up their latest suits in a trench somewhere in Ukraine? Or tripping on a rock and breaking a nail?! Blasphemy.
As for the USA, given the obesity crises that has spoiled the US Army’s plans to recruit as many people as it needs, I foresee jet fighters and bombers becoming twice to size (which will make them easy to spot/defend against) to accommodate the 400 lbs pre-diabetic pilot and trenches made 2-3x the width to accommodate two 500 pounders passing each other up in the trench. Of course, do not forget the trigger openings on all the guns need to be made wider to accommodate for the fat fingers…
Given all the above, the only thing I worry about is a plane loaded with the latest tech being lured by copious amounts of burger and cake into some Russian base to give up all its secrets…
The absurdity of this is incredible. Nearing the end of the Cold War in 1983 (my last year of HS, first year of college) there were two major close calls with nuclear armageddon with around 60K devices between the US and USSR:
1) Able Archer
2) Stanislav Petrov (thanks for saving humanity).
Able Archer was basically a permutation of Steadfast Noon. I didn’t know many details of these until years later, though I remember TV news stories about high tensions. It was common for people in my generation to assume we’d be lucky to not die in a nuclear war.
Well, we survived those, thankfully. The Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact dissolved completely by 1991. We said NATO wouldn’t go “one inch eastward.” It did numerous times, mostly without incident or much complaint from Russia.
NATO gets involved in breaking up Yugoslavia. The only close call I know of in this interim period from 1983-present was Wesley Clark ordering an attack on the Pristina airport which Russians were occupying as part of a peacekeeping dispute. Luckily a British officer refused to start WWIII.
Fast forward to 2008 when NATO “welcomes” Georgia and Ukraine with the Bucharest Declaration. Georgia’s western puppet Saakashvili attacks the restive provinces four months later, though media at first tried to claim Russia had.
And now in 2022, despite decades of numerous experts warning Ukraine was a “red line” for Russia (US media even said so in December 2021), we would not negotiate security with Russia. And by “we” of course I mean the Biden, Blinken, Nuland, etc., clown car in DC. All those new NATO countries and finally we found one right on its border Russia could not tolerate being hostile. As a result, we’ve finally made it back to 1983 levels of butt pucker all in the name of “protecting our national security” from “Russian aggression.”
We’re the most passive-aggressive bitchy empire in world history.
LOL! I don’t really care for him either, he’s no Larry. I find his videos quite boring. Similarly to that imbecille of Gonzalo Lira. I still want to know why the Ukrainians did not disappear him. I do like Brian Berletic and I also don’t care much for that Alex Christofaru dude and his videos.
Russia has their annual Nuclear exercises following next week. Will they be “wise” enough to cancel? I doubt it. With the current narrative of how the West will take the “high road” of not responding nuke for nuke but will devastate Russia “if” they use tactical nuke, and all is coordinated with West, my guess is nothing will happen in this exercise, they will wait for Russia’s “exercise”… do their False Flag thing, then run screaming to the UN. We have to remember, they were unhappy with UN vote. Even though they got the needed votes, they were very unhappy that India and South Africa couldn’t be brought on board. They need and want “global” consensus for their WW. This is about money & politics, “isolating” Russia. They know they cannot win a war in Europe with Russia. They want to paint Russia as a “nuclear pariah”. It’s all optics and public opinion, including Americans & those pushing back against Ukraine war. No matter what the “facts” are, this will be the new narrative. It would be wise if Russia canceled next weeks exercise.
Komsomolskaya Pravda yesterday published (in Russian) an interview with the legendary commander of the Vostok battalion (DPR) Alexander Khodakovsky https://www.kp.ru/daily/27458.5/4662325/
Interesting observations are being made about the rapid development of drones on the Russian side (tested on the battlefield).
From the interview: “- What weapons of the enemy give us the most trouble?
– Anything that surpasses us in range and accuracy. The 155th caliber, “NATO”, allows you to choose positions at a distance where we do not get it. GPS-controlled (from satellites. – Auth.) Hymers, with their limited high-explosive power, have high accuracy. And they hit hard. Practice shows: if the Hymers hit headquarters or communication centers in the basements of houses, they hit one point, over and over again, until they destroy the shelter.
– Accuracy, which we so lacked at Azovstal, when we tried to knock out dungeons with FAB-500 bombs …
– Exactly. One power is not always enough. It’s good that the number of Hymers themselves and charges for them in Ukrainian troops is limited. Therefore, they use them selectively.
And the most unpleasant thing is that some of our high-precision projectiles are controlled using the same American GPS. It is difficult to fight with an enemy who has the key to our victory. I won’t be surprised if they shift the coordinates of the target for us.
– I am an old tourist who used GPS trackers, I know that everything there is displaced by 15 meters from the true position. To avoid military use.
– So it turns out that our high-precision weapons are used as an area weapon. It’s just that when it was being developed, there was no GLONASS system yet. Now we are reaping it.
“RUSSIA IS ROCKING ALL”
– I know that you recently went to Greater Russia. Did you feel any changes in the country?
– In Russia, “responsible business” has become more active, which directs part of its income to the development of high-tech industries.
– For example?
– Private production of drones. Moreover, the emphasis is on flight duration and autonomy. To reduce the impact of the enemy. Our drone operators, for example, are already accustomed to flying them without GPS at all. The brains of the “bird” are being finalized. So we learn to resist. Now the prototypes of those drones that we tested at the front will go into production. We have come close to the moment when the troops will begin to be filled with technological things. Such as “Aistenok” and “Sobolyatnik” (portable reconnaissance systems. – Auth.). They will not become a curiosity, but will be in the troops everywhere.
– What can they do?
– Hear the enemy, hear the outgoing ammunition and determine the point from where the fire is opened. With an accuracy of up to 50 meters, see the location of the source of the radio signal. When the use of such things becomes widespread, it will be possible to say that we have surpassed the enemy. For this, everything is swinging in Russia now. Even the bureaucratic war machine.
– I often hear: “We need to change the approach.” What does it mean?
– I spoke with the inventor of one product, which is used by all special forces in Russia, but acquires it with their own money (we are talking about sights. – Auth.). Why? The inventor explained that he makes up to 20 positive changes to this product per year. He listens to the opinions of warring people and contributes. And if it is taken into the state order, it will be impossible to change anything.
Despite this, Russia has a whole parallel industry of military equipment. Or, modifying the products of the “national economy”. We, for example, calmly lay mines from our quadrocopters.
– As I understand it, the army has not yet taken on such a task as pinpoint mining from drones …
“It’s just that our small drone battalion unit is lively and creative, without bureaucratic obstacles. “
That was interesting. I tell people we had a “Freaky Friday”. Where Soviet Russia and the US changed governments one night. The US is now a completely government planned and orchestrated economy. And Russia is capitalists. That want to sell their oil gas, and food. Russian companies are innovating on the fly for this war, and Raytheon is plodding the halls of the Pentagon selling the same shit. We need more aircraft carrier!!! Like the Battlewagon people 2 days before Pearl Harbor. Fascinating.
It is absolutely and easily demonstrably wrong on GPS. take a reading plot it in Google Earth, overlay on a USGS map. Accuracy is limited to 3 m. Plus Russia has and uses Glonass NOT US GPS. I would say purposeful disinformation is being spread.
You might be confused by the coordinate system – NAD27 vs WGS84 differ by about 20 m depending on where on the globe you are.
The face of war is changing fast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ3r_Pn2AEE
Strangest war ever. It seems to me what we are witnessing in Ukraine represents a quantum shift in the history of warfare, which is to say, conventional battle, at least as we have always known it, where men set forth on the “field of strife” to perform various martial activities in the pursuit of victory, is fast on its way to obsolesence.
The strange part is, much of what we’ve seen so far in this conflict amounts to a classic WWI artillery duel, with an occasional WWII like mini-offensive sprinkled in here and there.
Unfortunately for today’s attacker, he can no longer perform a build up for an offensive of any significance undetected, in the age of the satellite such a thing is impossible, and once that offensive commences, if the enemy has enough drones to swamp your expensive mobile air defenses, which should be a cheap an easy thing to do in the very near future (tomorrow?), then all your armor will be destroyed and you will become a nearly broken army marching forward on foot, all the while under the watchful gaze of the enemy’s surveillance drones.
I think we’ve seen quite a bit of this lately, and needless to say, it is not a good place for an army to be.
One of the two reasons I’ve been adamant from the beginning that the Russians need to get this over as fast as possible, before arriving tech makes it impossible to achieve whatever is they hope to achieve with their theoretically, highly mobile armies.
In other words, get it done before the drones take over the battlefield forever.
The other reason is, the faster the Russian Federation can get this done the less time will be available for my country to consider its nuclear options, which means, Operation Z up until this point has been proceeding a little too slow for my liking!
I forgot, there is a third reason I would like to see the Russians finish this, to shut people up.
The shit is so absurd at this point there is meme developing in The Narrative, that the Ukies failed to drop the Crimean bridge on purpose, because as Sun Tzu tells us, you always want to leave bridges intact, in order to allow your enemy an avenue of retreat!
I think even the ever patient Andrei Martyanov has just about had enough with the obsession people have with what he calls, “the minutiae.”
http://thesaker.is/october-15-sitrep-andrei-martyanov/
What do I think about Sun Tzu? I like him. He gave sound, if basic, advice, most notably when he wrote; “Tactics is to strategy as the noise before defeat.”
It is impossible get through to the tactically inclined, which is why it is so frustrating to attempt to do so.
I love Mr. Johnson’s work. Always insightful. As poorly timed as this is, I do not worry about this too much. What I worry about is a tactical nuke false flag in Ukraine. The US State Department has been chumming the water with allegations of Russia using a nuke in Ukraine for months. With the ton of SF and Delta we have in Ukraine, I am sure one of the detachments has a tac nuke. And a pop in Kherson when the imminent Ukrainian offensive stalls out? That would be very convenient. They were winning!!! On the way to Crimea!!! And then those Russians “in desperation” popped a nuke! A year or two ago, I would have told myself to cut down on the vodka. With the US employing terrorist tactics against the NordStream? With British “intelligence” using suicide bombers against the Kerch bridge? I am not sure these are fever dreams anymore.
“At this point you have to assume that the Russians believe the West is using this exercise as a pretext to attack Russia with a preemptive nuclear strike. ”
Any preemptive strike will come from the Ohios. The Russian’s know this. So this exercise is either about trolling or it could, I guess, be an attempt at the Ulitimate Okey Doke? The old, hey look over here (!), while the wardheads of the Tridents start their Mach 20 descents unnoticed.
Which could not happen of course. The Russians are not going to take their eye off the firepower off the 99% to focus on the firepower of the 1%. Couldn’t even if they wanted to. If the Ohios launch, for the next 10 minutes, all the focus the Russian Federation could ever muster, or ever will muster, will instantly shift to that event.
Response times. Where did they go? Perhaps THE most important cornerstone of the MAD Pricinple, cavalierly tossed aside by my country like so much rubbish.
Where are the Ohios, how many are now, “out there (10?),” and what are they up to? That’s what I wanna know, and I’m pretty sure the Russians, when it comes to this nuke stuff, are thinking precisely along the same lines.
All this talk about the hypersonics and the Poseidons. Which is fine. If they are what they are cracked up to be, and the Americans recognize their viability, their value at the moment is inculcuable. The Russians, on the relative cheap, have succeeded in developing a more than credible deterrent.
Which means MAD is back on, or so one would think.
Still, I can’t help but arrive at the conclusion the American’s development of the super-fuze was the most important development* in this century, so far as this ongoing game of nuclear chicken is concerned.
https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/
In theory, it tripled the striking power contained within the bays of the Ohios overnight.
What was the purpose of this tripling? There is only one. Decapitation strike. To eliminate the Russian Federation as a functioning nation-state, and do it in less than 15 minutes.
*If it wan’t the most important develepment is was certainly the most destabilizing.
For Axis of Destruction, US, UK, France, this is just one proxy war out of many.
It gets alot of attention.
The proxy war invading Congo to continue to rape rape and rape it using a now in favor small neighbouring East African nation continues. The West will never ever let Congo stabilise until they rape it clean. Yet not one word of this.
Nor of an anti vax Tanzanian leaders sudden death falsely claimed to be from Covid.
Nor of deaths of West African leaders rejecting the forced use of the franc and forced placement of 1/3 reserves with French banks.
What changes after Russia’s inevitable win?
Maybe nothing for Africa.
Most likely the NATO bastards will be in Africa raping like there is no tomorrow. Maybe the Chinese and Russians too. Will they be better? They have never raised at any international forum the many proxy wars the West runs in Africa where they kill any good leader freely and often. They just let the West get away with everything while sitting quietly on the security council. Will that change? Who knows.
The manouvers of NATO are meaningless for most of the world. Everyone already knew the West is mad and evil beyond rational understanding.
Ofcourse they will destroy anything and do whatever they need to to keep rich and powerful. That’s a given.
As Nelson Mandela put, ‘if there is a country that does not care about human beings, it is the United States of America.’
He said that also with reference to the two nuclear bombs dropped on Japan to test the two different types of weapons, quickly dropped before Japan already finished, could surrender.
So why not use them again? What consequences exist for their elite?
To date the world’s cleverest tyrant. No one does psych ops like the Americans. There used to be one difference between the Brits and the Americans. Even in colonial days the Brits had a sense of shame and honour which is why the Commonwealth was able to be formed. The American regime has neither shame nor honor and the Brits nowdays are going that way.
Why is America regime doing this? Because it can. Zero consequences. They are not to bothered about the economy either. Just listen to them.
This next election in the US will show weather the American public retains any power and if a uniparty is now entrenched.
Either way. The American public have neither shown interest nor shame over it’s many wars. All they care about largely is their own lives. That’s not going to change. So America may step back from one proxy war and go back to raping and destroying Africa and South America in the dark again.
this is the last of my worries. Have done allot of checking into these things and came to the conclusion that hiroshima and the other city were firebombed like tokyo. This is just another thing to keep us scared , worried and compliant. They can then scare the public into buying these antiradiation meds which are very toxic. looks like the toxic azt stuff used for aids.
https://www.drugs.com/sfx/nplate-side-effects.html
https://nypost.com/2022/10/07/us-buys-290m-in-anti-radiation-drugs-amid-nuke-fears/
https://news.yahoo.com/us-just-spent-290-million-110645579.html
The thermobaric air fuel weapons out there have the same capability of the small mythical nuclear weapons that they claim to exist. they could use these and say they were nukes to get the whole stampede and hysteria rolling which is my main concern while in the meantime the goverments keep robbing us of our wealth and any freedom so we can own nothing and by being drugged up be happy.
Could all this nuclear rattle be a distraction? Let’s look at what else is happening. There’s a requiem change in progress in the UK right now. Macron is threatening to use troops to quell a strike by refinery workers. Protests are occurring across Germany over the lack of gas to get the country through this coming winter. And that’s just the “big three” in the EU.
And in Ukraine, slow and steady wins the race. We all know how this will end. It’s just a matter of (winter)time. Admittedly a false flag, either biological or nuclear, is possible. If this comes to be, I am putting my hope and faith in Putin, Lavrov and the rest of them to contain the fallout and not overreact.
Elsewhere in the world, the petro-dollar is doomed, and with it the Hegemon’s ability to be a hegemon is also doomed.
A new world alignment is birthing. In time it, too, will become dominant, repressive and resisted. This will play out over the next couple of centuries.
Optimistic? Yes. Taking the long view? Yes. But when the alternative is to place your head between your knees and kiss your arse goodbye, why not?
Hal – i could not agree with you more. This is just a big distraction to keep us scared and hiding under our beds while they destroy everything around us we hold dear.
If the russians really wanted to affect the elections of nov8; a good time would be for nov 1st with a big offensive to attack from belarus and the other 3 main fronts ; cut off kiev , kharkov, take Bakhmut ,surround odessa and complete the land bridge to the west. the schism this would cause the collective west would be something to behold; since there is nothing they could do to stop it.
regards,
ralph
Petrodollar is actually doing fine. There is zero real impact on dollar yet.
I can’t stop comparing next 2 weeks war game exercises to the 9-11 attack as US military was performing an exercise involving simulated hijacking of commercial planes.
I don’t trust these evil bastards from pulling another false flag event to trigger their WEF Great Rest of population and financial debt restructuring
Poop’n needs to go any way. He still has not returned the Superbowl ring the creep stole now he doesn’t want to return Ukraine. Time to teach him a lesson.
How can you ruin my Friday night on a Sunday morning? That doesn’t even make sense.