I am hesitant to write this because I do not want to leave the reader with the idea that I support the use of nuclear weapons. I do not. But the people of the United States, thanks to inept and corrupt political leadership, live under the fantasy that we are still in the strategic world that existed in the 1990s, when it was understood that a first-strike nuclear attack by the United States or Russia against the other would result in an unstoppable response that would leave both countries devastated and confront the world with a possible nuclear winter. In other words, Mutual Assured Destruction.
But then George W. Bush happened. In June of 2001, George W. Bush unilaterally abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. If your are younger than 40 years old, you probably have no memory of the ABM Treaty. Here’s a quick refresher:
Signed in 1972 by Washington and Moscow to slow the nuclear arms race, the ABM Treaty barred both superpowers from deploying national defenses against long-range ballistic missiles and from building the foundation for such a defense. The treaty was based on the premise that if either superpower constructed a strategic defense, the other would build up its offensive nuclear forces to offset the defense. The superpowers would therefore quickly be put on a path toward a never-ending offensive-defensive arms race as each tried to balance its counterpart’s action.https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-07/news/us-withdraws-abm-treaty-global-response-muted
I remember Bush’s first year in office clearly. My writing at the time was focused on the Bush Administration’s utter neglect of counter terrorism en lieu of focusing on developing a missile defense system. That was the priority of the Bush National Security team in 2001 until 9-11 happened. The Bush Team ignored the CIA warnings that Bin Laden was planning to hit the United States and only convened its first inter-agency meeting on terrorism on September 10:
Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US was the title of the President’s Daily Brief prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency and given to U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday, August 6, 2001. The brief warned, 36 days before the September 11 attacks, of terrorism threats from Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, including “patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for a hijacking” of U.S. aircraft.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bin_Ladin_Determined_To_Strike_in_US
In the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks, the Bush Administration pivoted to a perverse counter terrorism policy highlighted by invading Afghanistan and going to war with Iraq. The new CT policy shifted the U.S. Government’s defense policy from building and deploying the ballistic missile defense system that was Bush and Cheney’s dream in the first 8 months of their Administraion, to combating terrorism and nation building. Billions of dollars that could have been spent on a new ABM system were gobbled up with feckless military efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and other back waters in the the Third world.
What did Russia do? Initially, the folks in Moscow complained:
Senior Kremlin spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhhembsky said Moscow will voice regret about the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM treaty, but would otherwise remain calm. Mr. Yastrzhembsky said Russia’s own nuclear arsenal is sufficient to protect the country in the future.
The chief of the Russian General Staff, General Anatoly Kvashnin says U.S. withdrawal from ABM will have an impact on strategic stability.
General Kvasnin says it will open the way for some countries to embark on an international arms race. But, he says it will not threaten Russia’s security.
Some Russian politicians are less restrained. Duma Deputy Vladimir Lukin of the liberal Yabloka Party describes the U.S. move as a major mistake.
Mr. Lukin says ‘it’s worse than a crime, it’s a mistake.” He accuses the U.S. of using Russian assistance in the anti-terror coalition and then ignoring Russian concerns on other issues, such as the ABM treaty.https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-a-2001-12-13-31-russia-66943622/377674.html
And then Russia did what Russians do–they created a robust, echeloned ABM defense. My friend, Andrei Martyanov, offers a general description Russia’s response in his terrific book, Losing Military Supremacy:
“Furthermore, if in the naval field the United States still maintains some strong positions, not least through the sheer size of her navy, the current situation and trends are even worse in the other military-technological fields. The F-35 or Littoral Combat Ship disaster are just few indications of the overall slide in American conventional capabilities, such as American air defense for the US proper which is simply non-existent—a rather telling fact for the nation which thought it didn’t need to have one. This shouldn’t be mistaken with anti-ballistic missile defense which does exist in the US—which is absolutely useless against sea- and air-launched land attack cruise missiles which have the capability to attack crucial American military infrastructure—a capability Russia demonstrated to dramatic effect in Syria. Unlike Russia which boasts arguably the best, deeply echeloned, national air defense, which today deploys the best anti-air and anti-missile complexes in the word, American shores are virtually defenseless. Deployment of batteries of the Patriot PAC-3 system, whose reputation is not very high to start with, or of the AEGIS ships along the American shoreline, does not provide a guarantee against conventional or even nuclear retaliation against the US proper in case of a major conflict. With the project 885 Severodvinsk-class nuclear-powered submarines coming on-line, together with the modernized project 949A class, all armed with the latest TLAMs, it is very difficult to foresee any measure which can realistically secure the US proper from a massive cruise missile attack.”https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Military-Supremacy-American-Strategic/dp/0998694754/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1520301368&sr=1-1&keywords=Martyanov+Losing+Military+Supremacy,
So, here is the critical question–Can the US block a nuclear missile?
A new study sponsored by the American Physical Society concludes that U.S. systems for intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles cannot be relied on to counter even a limited nuclear strike and are unlikely to achieve reliability within the next 15 years.
If you are a Russian military planner, you realize that M.A.D is no longer a reality. In the event that Russia believed it faced a genuine existential threat from the West from a nuclear strike, even a tactical hit, the Russian military could present President Putin with a viable plan that would destroy the U.S. nuclear response with limited (albeit horrific) damage to Russia. I am not suggesting that Russia would walk away unscathed. But Russia, with a field tested, integrated anti-ballistic missile defense system, would have a better than even chance of surviving a nuclear exchange with the United States.
I will repeat–this is a last resort action and I am steadfastly opposed to it. But I think it should be part of the public discussion. Too many ignorant pundits and politicians in the West disparage Russia’s military capabilities as second rate at best. Jeffrey Lewis, writing in Foreign Policy four years ago, understood the reality of the moment:
“The real genesis of Russia’s new generation of bizarre nuclear weapons lies not in the most recent Nuclear Posture Review, but in the George W. Bush administration’s decision in 2001 to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and the bipartisan failure by both the Bush and Obama administrations to engage meaningfully with the Russians over their concerns about American missile defenses. Putin said as much in his remarks. “During all these years since the unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty,” Putin explained, “we have been working intensively on advanced equipment and arms, which allowed us to make a breakthrough in developing new models of strategic weapons.” Those technological breakthroughs are now here. Sadly, we’re never got the diplomatic ones we needed.”“Putin’s Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile Is Bigger Than Trump’s. Jeffrey Lewis. Foreign Policy, March 1, 2018. http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/01/putins-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile-is-biggerthan-trumps/”
The war in Ukraine has given Russia a stage to showcase some of its advanced weaponry, such as the hypersonic Kinzhal. This missile has hit targets in Ukraine before the air raid warnings went off. Andrei Martyanov explains:
“many true professionals were gasping for the air when the Dagger (Kinzhal) was unveiled. This is a complete game changer geopolitically, strategically, operationally, tactically and psychologically. It was known for some time that the Russian Navy was already deploying a revolutionary M=8-capable 3M22 Zircon anti-shipping missile. As impressive and virtually uninterceptable by any air defenses the Zircon is, the Kinzhal is simply shocking in its capabilities. This, most likely based on the famed Iskander airframe, M=10+ capable, highly maneuverable, aero-ballistic missile with a range of 2000 kilometers, carried by MiG-31BMs, just rewrote the book on naval warfare. It made large surface fleets and combatants obsolete. No, you are not misreading it. No air-defense or anti-missile system in the world today (maybe with the exception of the upcoming S-500 specifically designed for the interception of hyper-sonic targets) is capable of doing anything about it, and, most likely, it will take decades to find the antidote. More specifically, no modern or prospective airdefense system deployed today by any NATO fleet can intercept even a single missile with such characteristics. A salvo of 5-6 such missiles guarantees the destruction of any[…]”
M.A.D. is dead. Let us pray that we survive.
no they cannot; even if these devices work as well as advertised which i have my doubts- i think a neutron bomb is as far as effective as these things ever will be ; the powers that be that have invested trillions in enslaving all of mankind since ww2 which humanity is know waking up too are not willing to throw it all away and start again. in my opinion it is the ultimate all in 2-7 offsuit against a pair of aces in texas hold-em with 5 cards left to lay down . by the way russia has the pair of aces.
if yu want an alternate opinion on this type in galen winsor and bitchute and yu will be surprised by what yu find
Mad Dog says
I didn’t really understand the jargon you used but I think your premise was that “No, they cannot” means that the Russians aren’t able to defeat the US in an all out Nuke exchange. If that is what you meant, I respectfully disagree. We never developed a Neutron Bomb. It is possible that the Russians have but their testing of it would be highly problematic.
All of the equipment and points/counter points described by Larry fit my knowledge of what we have versus what they they have and also note – they have demonstrated many new surprises which are actually working.
I have worked in the Nuclear Effects testing world as a well as the Nuclear Development world. Prior to that I worked in the FME area in painstakingly focused detail. They’ve got us right now and most probably will have us for about seven more years, give or take.
meant the us military cannot defeat the russian military in this type of war or a conventional war also. got it reversed.
…. We never developed a Neutron Bomb……
You sure ?
I can respond to that…no “we” never developed the neutron bomb. It was never built and never even went past early “proof of concept” stages. It was a bluff, for everyone who likes poker metaphors, like “star wars” was a bluff, but even the pretense of it was so politically odious to “our” European “allies” (for reasons which should be obvious) that, even the pretense of it was dropped. It has never come up again except in conversations like this
Cato the Uncensored says
Bottom line is CONUS is essentially undefended despite spending the better part of a trillion dollars on a so-called Department of Defence.
MAD DOG, so you think that the West will not only catch up with Russia and China, but will also match the advances they will make in advanced hypersonic missiles and all in the next seven years?
With respect either you lack the experience you claim or your name is well deserved.
I would think that Andrei Martyanov could expound on the topic of the ranks of Russian military organization. I know he has spoken in videos on his Smoothiex12 blog about the Russian upper echelon officers leading at the front lines rather than dictating from Moscow.
Andrei Martyanov backs his claims with knowledge. What are your claims backed by other than opinion? As for Russian air defense being inferior to US, an “old” S300 system killed two Ukrainian fighters with hyper sonic (M14+) missiles at 217km, far farther than US systems. Turkey now has S400, and Russia will soon deploy S500 capable of killing hypersonic missiles – if the US can ever make them.
Martynov fanboy. Sure it’s true because he says it.
Neutron Bomb – is the Gateway drug. Imagine Some smooth talking junior analyst on the NSC discovers Neutron Bombs and sucessfully their use.
That’s my fear. ( Shoulda built that backyard bunker 2 years ago)
The Infant Phenomenon says
Agreed! These thieves and murderers act in their own self-interest, and blowing up the world–including (necessarily) themselves–is not in their interests. Therefore it will not happen.
Some Muslim splinter group with a suitcase nuke might show up uninvited and unannounced to drop a turd in the punch bowl, but governments are not going to take the nuke route. The stakes are just not that high. The crime syndicate that runs “our” country doesn’t give a sh*t about the Ukraine except for what they can steal from it. And then that becomes inconvenient, they’ll just leave.
The criminals who run “our” country will do what they always do: leave a ruined Ukraine to its fate and move on to their next criminal enterprise without batting an eyelash and without a backward glance.
They MIGHT declare victory b/c they “defended democracy” or something equally school-girlish, but the Ukraine is simply not important enough for them to blow up the world, including themselves. They’ll grab what they can and move on to their next victim.
They have Big Plans. For themselves and for us.
And besides, does anybody here REALLY think that Nancy P and Hillary C and Lindsey G intend to spend up to five years underground in their super-duper bunkers at the Denver airport or in New Zealand, or wherever those things supposedly are?
IT’s fashionable now to yammer about nuk-yu-ler incineration because it is on Tee Vee a lot, so if you don’t bring it up at the office water cooler, then you ain’t hip or cool. That’s all. It’s just the media event of late summer 2022. Russia and the US have normal diplomatic relations, with fully functioning embassies in both countries. If those embassies are recalled and the buildings locked, and diplomatic relations are severed, THEN I might consider the situation serious. But for now, it’s just The Current Thing on Tee Vee.
Bob Jenkins says
While I agree with most of what you say, I don’t agree with this absolutism that too many people practice.
I’m referring specifically to ‘will not happen’.
If we agree that Nuclear weapons exist, and that stupid people exist, there is always a possibility that it could happen, however slight (and I do believe it is slight).
I’ve heard this
‘And besides, does anybody here REALLY think that Nancy P and Hillary C and Lindsey G intend to spend up to five years underground in their super-duper bunkers at the Denver airport or in New Zealand, or wherever those things supposedly are?’
rationale before and it has merit, but some of these people are very stupid (not just the ones you mentioned) and they are also very vindictive, and I firmly believe that if they feel that they are going to lose a firm grip on their control, they may well resort to extremely unhinged behavior.
The most dangerous animal is a cornered animal after all.
Again, I agree with what you said for the most part, I just don’t agree with the ‘will not happen’ component.
I truly hope it does not, for all our sakes.
Lavrov said today that he sees no use in staffing Russian diplomatic outposts in the West any longer because there are no exchanges and personnel are being harassed. Take that as you will.
Bob Jenkins says
Yes, I had read that as well.
There is a constant assumption that the back channels are ‘always open’ and while that may be true, just because they are open, does not mean that anything productive or meaningful is passing through them.
Lavrov seems like a fairly sincere and pragmatic man, and his recent statements lead me to believe that he is at least somewhat exasperated.
Are you aware of mysterious Ukronium?
Ips Prez says
Well, MAD is not dead and quoting someone who actually thought a comparison of the 60’s US military capability to current Russian capability was a fair comparison, (yes, one Andrei Martyanov did just that and when I said that was an apples to oranges comparison I was labelled a bot, OK), hardly buttresses that thinking. Unless you can utterly destroy a response the idea of MAD persists. Also, concerning the Kinzhal, I think all the breathless adoration given it should pause and reflect on the fact that Ukrainian air defense is old Soviet technology. And whether or not the US has a similar weapon is tough to say. The US has a habit of not revealing its latest weaponry. Same goes for air defense which I have heard many negative comments about US capability by comparing the Russian Pantsir to the Patriot system. Again, not an apples to apples comparison. It has been very frustrating listening or rather reading all the anti US commentators who seem to have fallen in love with anything and everything Russian while disparaging anything American. It is true that the fraudulent US government is doing its best to destroy or at least diminish US military capabilities but I have confidence in the rank and file of the force and also the ingenuity of the American mind that the woke liberals will not be able to overcome much to the dismay of the haters.
Sorry to disappoint, but it just ain’t that way! I’ve been either in or around .mil since 1976. The defense budget is the largest money laundering business on the planet. The amount of money spent on garbage is more insanity.
What about NASA huge budget. They are certainly crap on space so what is it used for.
I think quite a few people have watched programs like the F-35 and concluded that ultimately it is not much bang for the super-enormous buck spent. Also, just on June 30, 2022 a hypersonic test failed during launch in USA. So and so on.
Russia/China have the advantage ultimately of being able to build same or superior stuff for cents on the dollar. In such places the military manufacturers are subordinate to the state, they do not run the state. Once that boundary is blurred (while they are publicly traded corporations answerable to share holders), the whole system is open to corruption.
ODDO. You raise an interesting point. The Russians spend their money on building weapons, the US spends to enhance profits. I would be very interested in a cost comparison for US, Russian and Chinese weapons system.
Plus I would like to see the cost per kilometre of the delivery of a kilo of explosive. Frighteningly on that bases Nukes are cheap cheap cheap.
Well, I would argue that China is pretty corrupt as well. And they make a lot of military gear that doesn’t work. Russia, well, they have a leader that thinks strategically and long term, which is why the west is desperate to regime change him. Today, however, Putin is regime changing the West.
For a country to be successful, you gotta have tech, energy (oil and gas, especially) and food. The US and Russia have all three in abundance. So I wouldn’t count either of them out.
The Kinzhal missiles that Russia launched on Western Ukraine, were against a NATO training base for mercenaries, covered by NATO’s missile defense system, and that system didn’t even detect them. Survivors of that missile strike said that they got no warning about the missile strike at all, which is why that base was totally destroyed.
Hence if the US does have any advanced weaponry that can intercept hypersonic missiles like the Kinzhal, it would be in its interest to advertise it. Yet it hasn’t done so, even 8 months after this conflict started.
David Beckham says
“I have confidence in the rank and file of the force and also the ingenuity of the American mind”
I don’t. But I also know that we need to be honest with ourselves. The US didn’t become the world’s superpower (and maintain it) by being a bunch of incompetent fools. Obviously, the American Empire is in decline but underestimating your enemy is the golden ticket to get your butt kicked.
I find it ironic how the pro-Russia folks basically saw America’s capabilities like how the anti-Russians saw Russia’s. It reminds me of of a blog article about 10 years ago that disparaged the Russian military as a collection of drunks and incompetent who wouldn’t stand a chance in a real fight. As you all might figure, that article aged like fine milk. Now I see the same signs with all these triumphalistic declaration from the pro-Russian folks. It strikes me as dishonest no matter who’ saying it. Or at least naive.
Alex Thrace says
Two factors, control of the dollar and the US got so far ahead in decades past it took this long to catch up, but its easier to catch an adversary that is stumbling and arrogant.
The goals of the MIC have evolved over the years to focus on “enhancing share holder value ” ( a euphemism for 7 figure executive bonus checks) as well as providing cushy VP jobs and board positions for friendly and influential retired generals. Plus a little something for office holders in key districts.
Muralidhar Rao says
First of all I am not Pro-Russian/Chinese/Indian. However if you honestly look at how we in the US squandered our fortune to the tune of close to $10 Trillion chasing the phantom of Islamic fanatism while indirectly fomenting it, where as the rest of the world concentrated on developing their nation’s economies and in the process their own military capabilities. I hope you remember how we reacted to Iranian attack on our military base in Iraq that is from a super power that will bomb to smitherins any body looking the wrong way. Does that tell you anything about our capabilities?
I am sorry for my lack of historical/military knowledge but…, what BIG military project was researched, developed, built and deployed in secrecy?
Heck, Stalin knew the new developments at Los Alomos before FDR.
confirmation bias.the US can never wait to brag about their latest wunder weapon to ensure robust sales and justify the rediculous amount of money they spent for it!
“… but I have confidence in the …. ingenuity of the American mind …”
Really? Don’t discount the effects on the American mind 80 years of fluoride in the water and 40 years of mystery compounds sprayed into the atmosphere has on human development. I think it was in the 60s that Russia did a study of the effects of fluoride on a ‘bull’. The results were frightening. Lowered aggression and lowered testosterone. I don’t know if this info is still online. Maybe at the Wayback machine. Check it out.
What fraudulent US government? Did Americans in sufficient numbers, support Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, the Bushes, etc, etc? Then this now is the place where all those took you.
There is no fraudulent American government, there is no American empire apart from the American people. Claiming ignorance doesn’t make you innocent. There is no innocent America and there is no innocent Europe.
Once we opted consistently, continuously and repeatedly for a capitalist system we threw our lot with the people in charge. Not only at the time of exerting our vote, but with every holiday abroad we took, every new gadget we didn’t need we bought, every time we got on the car for leisure purposes, every time we ignored events in Chile, Cuba, Africa, etc., or thought to ourselves that the poor deserve to be poor because “they don’t strive sufficiently”.
It’s what it is, there is no fraud at all, we wanted to have this standard of life at any cost and our political parties obliged us.
It’s only now that we can see standards slipping and the real possibility of joining the ranks of the poor that some throw their hands up in the air and shout “wasn’t me!”.
I agree with your general premise. With the caveat that at least some of us are trying to live a self sufficient lifestyle. The problem is that the economic system not only actively discourages this approach, it downright is against it.
“I agree with your general premise. ”
What you believe is not significant; significance lies in whom are your opponents, what your opponents think, and their implementations of strategies informed by what they think.
Where do you come up with this stuff? If the US military possessed a hypersonic missile, they would be shouting about it from the rooftops. But all that we have heard is a hypersonic missile is under development. In other words it may be a long time coming.
Lawrence L says
Five years ago, I spoke with a Army major who had been deployed to a long term planning team. When I asked him specifically about hypersonic missiles, he claimed that they weren’t too worried about that because the nose cone metallurgy issues were so difficult to deal with. He said (paraphrasing), “Think about it. A vehicle travelling at thousands of miles per hour is essentially like a spacecraft in reentry–at a dense atmospheric level for its entire flight. It’s a problem we don’t think our enemies are any closer to solving than we are.”
What is this delusional nonsense? A $1b Patriot Missile Battery could not stop $15k worth of Iranian drones when ARAMCO was attacked.
Next you’ll tell us that Russia’s space program is based on old Soviet technology. Yeah and? They can reliably put people into space, unlike us. Pure projection.
Jams O'Donnell says
The number of US military tools which were/are failures is long and comprehensive. Just to mention a few recent ones:
F-35 – much poorer performance than opposition 5Gen planes, long down -times, very high maintenance, still not fully certified, production curtailed.
“Littoral’ combat ships – already structural failures, judged not able to cope in combat, already being scrapped.
F-22 – inflexible computer system can’t be upgraded, long down-times, high maintenance, production curtailed, can be detected easily and locked onto by Su-35 – but not vice versa (Syria).
‘Zumwalt’ destroyers – cancelled after two built, can’t undertake envisaged role, main gun cancelled, etc.
‘Patriot’ missile defence system – unable to cope in reality, as proved in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
New carriers – twice as expensive as similar predecessors, problems with lifts, problems with electronic launch system, likely to be too expensive for envisaged production numbers.
Gara Frame says
You refute the comparisons that people like Martyanov and others make and claim the “adoration” (sic) of the Kinzhal is mistaken. You also state that comparison of the Patriot ADS with the Pantsir is wrong – apples to oranges you say. Fine. Fair enough, but you provide no evidence to support your claims.
I expected at least some evidence to back up your claims. But no. Nothing. Why should I believe you over people like Andrei Martyanov and Larry Johnson who seem to have a solid track record on such matters. Please remember refutation is not in itself fact.
‘.. I have confidence in the ingenuity of the American mind…’
That’s an example of pure arrogance. Is the American mind more special than the Russian / Chinese / Indian mind?
More than individual minds, it is the socio-political system / framework in which the minds operate that determine the quality of output. Sure genius minds exist in America, to the same degree that they exist in Russia, China, India, Europe, etc. But the US system is rotten, hence expecting high quality output from it is a forlorn hope.
Patriots did not work to protect Saudi refineries or US bases in Iraq.
Russian bases in Syria are attacked with all types of missiles and drones, without success. Russian anti missile systems shoot down HIMARs regularly today in Ukraine.
Old Soviet tech is still years ahead of Patriot, US stealth aircraft was shot down using 1960s era SAM by Serbia, while Western air defences have a miserable record defending even short range.
At some point, you have to face facts and reality. Soviet\Russian SAM systems work, US does not. The reason is simple, profits over needs.
It all comes down to a few things – corruption and arrogance. In USA the corruption is on the level much higher than it was in USSR before its end. Why? Because there is so much more money going around and so much more comforts and we have much more sophisticated ways to spin narratives and live the lies.
In USA this corruption is systemic and pervasive – there are whole layers of people from top to bottom who live off layers beneath them: Politicians/bankers/CEOs -> lawyers/accountants/doctors -> techies/traveling nurses/project managers -> mid level managers -> payday loan places -> lower level employees -> people with multiple jobs that barely make ends meet -> …. Layer above is sucking the life out of the level(s) below, BUT, most importantly (!), everyone is in the same game, invested the same way. Doesn’t matter if it is private enterprise or the state via taxation/police powers – it is set up like a grinder with no way out and everyone pretends it is all freedom and democracy but it is all “fo sho”. College is for profit, medicine is for profit, jobs are sold off to faraway lands for profit, resources are plundered for profit….So we find one or two issues we cannot profit from and we fight over them internally and use them to show our moral superiority externally.
Arrogance – USA wrote Russia off in the late 1990s and due to above mentioned corruption went down a different path – plunder of world resources for corporate profit covered up by shifting of narratives domestically to fixing non-issues (for example, is the gender debate really THAT important to western society so that it takes front seat over, for example, how we grow our food or where the jobs went or why protesting oil infrastructure is a felony in multiple US states?). This flawed “public discourse” prohibits, as unintended side effect (?), competence as criteria of ascent in life. So, we get choices more and more between dumb and dumber, corrupt and more corrupt, virtue signaler and more virtue signaler.
Russia wisely stood aside while this was/is happening and patiently developed weapons and friendships. They watched, shook their heads in wonder and kept working on their own stuff. Can’t fix crazy but must be able to defend yourself from crazy when crazy starts looking at you funny….
USA resembles a small aquarium full of competing piranhas – with the only goal of short term satiety. Everything in USA is geared towards feeding the piranhas and it doesn’t matter if global south or our own people domestically are being fed into the profit machine.
Russia/China on the other hand have horizons of 30+ years and the benefit of being empires in ascent. Basically us a hundred years ago?
Everything described in this (great) article is a result of a simple trade off between short term pleasure for long term gains. Arrogance is a great cover up for this trade off because, well, we are the best so even if we take our eyes off the ball, there is nobody out there who can be better, right?
I agree. My observation as an immigrant to this country and the USA has what I call “wedge economy” – 1/3 of the country work hard to earn money and 2/3 of the country work hard to take the money away. Everywhere you look are structures, on structures on structures to make it easier to fish in the murky waters. Why not a flat tax? Everyone pays flat 10% from top to bottom on each dollar earned. It would eliminate the army of tax people, accountants, lawyers, legislators, etc. Nobody needs clear, simple and concise. If something can’t be explained take in simple terms, it means something vis going on under the surface.
Why not a flat tax? The answer is simple. The top five percent pay more in income tax then their share of the income earned. The next 5% is even. The bottom 90% pay less than what they earn an income as a percentage of the total. This was according to the Tax Foundation I don’t know how many years ago.
If the top 5% are paying more taxes in relation to their share of the income earned, a flat tax means the bottom 90% get stuck with a tax increase.
I won’t tell you whether I’m in the 90% or not, but if I were, I wouldn’t want anything that causes an increase in my taxes. And if I’m in that top 10%, I’m doing fine. The political blowback isn’t worth what I save in taxes.
I would add a 2.5% annual tax on all assets with an allowance of enough to own an average home and enough to provide two thirds of an average wage, then a universal .05% transaction tax.
Mike D. says
I listened to a hedge fund guy speak off the cuff. Everything is about making more money. He mocked the climate change
stuff. He publicly is a believer but said it is going to impoverish many but invests to make a killing off it. Big democrat donor.
Suspect Obama and others are the same. He mocked Russians
ad well as backward and weird.
I wonder if there is a societal Titanic mindfuk. People then thought it would not sink and newspapers touted it.
Juan Valdez says
Kurt Vonnegut described the people surrounding Bush as “upper-crust C-students who know no history or geography”.
Unfortunately, the same idiots are still in positions of power and influence.
We are ruled by truly stupid people who live in a bubble world of wealth and power. They only move within their own inbred circle and are only ever questioned by sycophants from their own propaganda machine. So you have a bunch of idiots drinking their own Kool-Aid.
They’ll continue to double down on stupid in Ukraine and beyond, because they just cannot fathom that the rest of the world outside their bubble has moved on from them.
This is what is most dangerous.
As we know from psychology:
“Violence typically occurs when narcissistic rage gets to an uncontrollable level, and they feel they have no other outlet besides physical force.”
If there was ever a group of self-absorbed nitwits who would push us into nuclear war because they cannot maintain “full spectrum dominance”, this is them.
There may be quite a few interim steps before all hell breaks loose. I would not put it past these people to do anything to retain their wealth and power. No one else matters to them. Certainly, we can see the utter disdain they have for all of us. Gore Vidal once said that average citizens have no idea the contempt that they are held in by those in power. But the days of savvy old pols who at least had been tempered by world war and economic catastrophe are gone.
Our fate is in God’s hands now.
Alex Thrace says
“Our fate is in God’s hands now.”
It doesn’t have to be.
If the midterms are stolen the ball will be in our court at that point. Hopefully enough of us care enough to pick it up.
John Q. Publick says
Your freaking presidential election was stolen in front of your face, blacks burned down your cities in front of your face, your children are being openly abused in front of your faces. Americans are the most passive aggressive group of people on earth, who will be saying the same thing when they’re put in line at the gas chambers. “This is the last insult! Next time, I’m really going to get mad and do something!”
The Infant Phenomenon says
Ain’t it a shame that events don’t take place in accordance with your personal schedule and your personal wishes! How on earth do you suppose things came to such a bad pass??
When the time comes, it will be “organic” and everybody will know what to do. And they will DO it.
It has never been any different at any time or in any place.
Unhappily for you, you’ll just have to tough it out and find the patience to make it through to the great day.
In any event, things will happen at the necessary time and not before.
Cris from Caracas says
Alex Thrace says
Slow to anger, also know that there is no going back once started. Giving adequate time for the system to correct itself, if that fails then no one can fault revolt at that point.
It is not something you undertake lightly.
But no one burned down my city, no one tried to mutilate my grand children and no one tried to force a needle in my arm.
We still have a limited window to settle this like civilized people.
That window is closing rapidly.
‘.. no one burned down my city …’
Remember these words, written on the rise of Hitler:
” First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me–and there was no one left to speak for me.
Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)
richard braverman says
Those C-students in the George W. Bush Administration are the same Neo-Cons in the (un-elected) Biden administration. We are in this mess because we have tolerated the criminality of the Neo-Cons and their tribal compatriots and bought lackeys who have hijacked the collective West to make the world safe for Israel and address historical grudges that have nothing to do with the United States, Europe and even Reality.
This intersection of “the syndicate (i.e., gangsters)”, the private central banks, and intelligence agencies was born in World War II and has now successfully swallowed the collective west. Call it the Enterprise and its fingerprints are all over major historical events of the last eight years.
JFK is preventing Israel from acquiring nuclear weapons; he has to go.
RFK is going to investigate the JFK assassination; he has to go.
The United States must enter the war in the middle east; sink the USS Liberty.
Richard Nixon wants to put Americans first; Watergate.
Gerald Ford wants to force a peace deal in the Middle East; Stagflation.
James Earl Carter wants to put Americans first; hyper inflation, Iran hostage Crisis
Ronald Reagan wants to shrink government; attempted assassination
As long as the public points fingers at each other while tolerating this evil; nothing will change.
Former US President Gerald Ford was also the target of an “attempted assassination” in 1975 by a female follower of Charles Manson … On the other side of things under his administration the Vietnam War was brought to and end …
Former US President Jimmy Carter supported the Iranian Revolution of 1979 … and Operation Cyclone started under his administration …
As regards former US President Richard Nixon and his wish to “put Americans first”, historical evidence shows that he was successful in putting China first … and biolabs …
Coercive social relations are saturated by notions that coercion is the norm, which in turn facilitates notions that resort to violence is the norm for all.
Both “Capitalism” and “The United States of America” are coercive social relations, and hence the occurences you cite and the framing of the title of this article “FORGET M.A.D., CAN RUSSIA DEFEAT THE UNITED STATES IN A NUCLEAR WAR?” are perceived by some as normal, and hence the Russian Federation’s Presidential Decree 355 of 3rd June of 2020 are held by some to be abberant/bluffing, as was understood by representatives of The Russian Fedration on creation of the document.
The notions of some that resort to violence is the norm of all, renders them subject to “useful foolery” and complicity in their own transcendence.
The resorts to violence delivered by others of Mr. Strauss and his subsequent disciples are functions of fear, whilst Mr. Seigel and Mr. Schuster used their fears to create the cartoon character Superman.
The fear intensity/quotient tends reduce as a function of cooperation levels within social relations, hence resort to violence by The Russian Federation is affected in specific, not constant contexts as in “The United States of America”, since it is understood that “war” emulates coercive social relations and that sustainable purposes can only be found by transcending coercive social relation by social relations of mutual cooperation, of which “Capitalism” and the self-misrepresented “The United States of America”, by virtue of their enclosures in linear paradigms, ergo sytematically, are incapable.
The Russian Federation also exhibits understanding that all die, but there are some contexts within which the risks of dying become more acceptable – as in Presidential Decree 355 of 3rd June of 2020 – hence M.A.D. is not forgotten.
I cannot parse what is your (AI written?) point.
To argue that only Russia understands that all dies is news only to an AI (Which doesn’t die).
Just watched Origin Unknown 2036 last night where an AI decided to end humanities MAD fear by launching all missiles.
RE: ISL says
18 October 2022 at 14:23
“AI (Which doesn’t die).”
Which doesn’t exist since it is a function of human endeavour, and ergo is a derivative of human intelligence, not artificial or machine intelligence, even when machinery is an aid in its manufacture, as is “dead hand”, which some seek to obfuscate predicated upon “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident”.
Thank you for your complicity in facilitating your own transcendence and that of the social relations of which you are a component.
“As long as the public points fingers at each other while tolerating this evil; nothing will change.”
The ‘public’ happens to be you, as you have just demonstrated.
I shared this in its entirety with my Facebook friends. Thanks JV
Thank you for your efforts!
Reading TACTICAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE GROZNY COMBAT EXPERIENCE by BRETT C. JENKINSON, MAJ, USA
B.S., United States Military Academy, West Point, New York, 1989
Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 2002
From that document. Question is this still the case?
“NCOs are vital to a successful urban fight, yet the Russian Army still has
conscript NCOs–graduates of a six-month NCO course. There is no professional NCO
Corps in the Russian Army. “
You can find that in “The Russian Way of War”. A couple years old now.
I’ll explain the major difference in US/NATO versus Russian methods as simply as I can. US uses artillery to support maneuver. Russia maneuvers to use artillery. Maneuver warfare requires good coordination at the NCO level. In both Armies, artillery crews are well-trained specialists.
The Russian Navy has always used and rely on career Warrant Officers rather than NCOs. I suspect their Army is the same. Lastly, the Russian BTG Commanders are highly capable and experienced, not rotated in and out. No woke shit either. Artillery is typically organic with the BTGs, so they’re really combined arms at the Batallion level. The US is combined arms at Brigade.
The Russian army revised it’s war fighting doctrines….
Alex Thrace says
Ironically MAD was what kept everyone sane. We all knew there would be no winning.
God help us all.
Marcos aguilera says
I hope that question is never answered, for the good of all citizens of the United States and the entire world, what I cannot understand is how the intelligence services can ignore Russian capabilities, it is crazy, as an amateur reader anyone can find on the net the advances in russian missile systems, kaliber, kinsal, avangard that has already been operational since 2019, s300, s400, s500. Is there no one in Washington with the balls to stop this madness against the American people?
Hypersonics target stationary targets and are not that good on moving targets.
So while they can hit stationary targets effectively. A moving target like a vertical mach 24 missile is not something hypersonics can target effectively unless they hit a fixed point.
There is zero chance imo that US or Russia can defend effectively against multiple nuclear strikes. There are just too many weapons.
The confidence of the US government is because I believe they are clear on their goal. They want to kill Russian soldiers – over 6000- , destroy Russian weapon stocks – every bullet used is a win- and isolate Russia – most countries are beginning to comply with US sanctions-. Note US army stocks are not affected at all by what they give Ukraine. Those are surplus. Russia is using army stocks and manpower.
US knows Russia won’t target them in military strikes unless they formally enter. Russia has not at this time shown appetite to decapitate the head of the snake or for first nuclear strike. If the West really thought Russia would go nuclear war would end tomorrow.
A couple things:
I used to read all the Bin Laden “special” reports that came across my desk back in the mid-90’s. (Maybe some of yours Larry.) It was clear where he was going. Arrogance is such a wonderful trait (sarc)!
Second, anti-missile defense is crazy difficult. I did my share of studies and experiments on this topic. Forget about crossing shots. Forget about getting multiples. Forget about using HEL. We’re doomed.
Last night, TCM had the movie Ronin on. It occurred to me that I’m sortof there…
I recently read that the U.S. and Russia have an estimated of 3.5k’s nuclear warheads at combat readiness (mounted on delivery vehicles) and a similar number in storage and not mounted.
The number is around 7k’s nukes, down from 70k’s during the Cold War.
Question: Is that figure strong enough to terminate life on earth? The consequences for the Northern Hemisphere would be collosal possible getting onto a white race extinction (+ everyone else in the north), but I don’t think that will lead to the so-called apocalyptic Nuclear Winter spoken in the 80’s.
As you mentioned, these matters need to be discussed in the open as many loonies in the U.S. think they are 100% protected against a nuclear attack. And that notion is dangerous as it encourage an attack on Russia.
I met a young American person some years ago. He was an intelligent person well versed in Geopolitics and good world traveller.
He then got stuck when I mentioned that the American nuclear umbrella is little more than a sexual fetisch.
If that pattern is followed by decision makers in DC, it’s quite disturbing
MAD is not dead. But the concept has been modified. The original concept assumed equal damage to both sides and the end of all life on earth, thanks to the huge radioactive yield of the kind of nuclear bombs we had in the 60s. But the technology has progressed, with the development of smaller tactical weapons. Yes, you can destroy a company and millions around the world would die from radiation poisoning. But not necessarily all life. Nor all people. Let us keep in mind that the first bombs, while small by 60s standards, were also very “dirty”. But damage was pretty much restricted to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Russian strategy, as Larry says, involves antiballistic defense, which with the S500 and S550 will be very good, although not complete. Secondly, the development of hypersonic weapons which allow for precision targeting with low-yield nuclear weapons, sufficient to wipe out an enemy’s political and military infrastructure without necessarily contaminating the entire earth– not that catastrophic contamination of local, even widespread areas will not occur. BTW, I posted Larry’s last post on my Substack site, and have gotten a LOT of positive response. Of course, I am referring them directly to THIS site!
Considering the way that the US has chosen to distribute its military targets all around the globe in the form of some 800 bases, I’m not so sure that there will be many areas that will be able avoid the nuclear fallout in the event of an all out war.
Once nuclear weapons are brought into play, there is no way to be certain that escalation will not go to the max with many hundreds or thousands of ICBMs, cruise missiles and hypersonics flying in all directions. And the damage may go beyond ballistic and radiation harm to nuclear winter, which will pretty much take care of everyone in the Northern Hemisphere and many in the Southern Hemisphere as well. Even highly sophisticated air defenses may prove inadequate in an all-out nuclear conflagration. Best to avoid it altogether.
The war in Ukraine has given Russia a stage to showcase some of its advanced weaponry, such as the hypersonic Kinzhal. This missile has hit targets in Ukraine before the air raid warnings went off. — LCJ
Two of Putin’s hole cards… How many are up his sleeve?
Do Putin’s goals now include demilitarizing NATO? That decision, along with its probabilities and contingencies, is being weighed daily against European decisions, actions and words…
Obtaining and employing the Geran-2 from Iran is, similarly, an interesting decision. Although basic (and extremely cost-effective), its capabilities provide Russia with both a credible drone swarm threat while keeping advanced Russian weapon systems cloaked in mystery.
Countering Geran-2 requires NATO to provide Ukraine with their most advanced anti-air systems, while revealing little about other Russian offensive capabilities.
As far as I can see, the game-changer in infantry/armored warfare are relatively small drones deployed at the squad level. The large numbers of highly autonomous drones launched and controlled individually by squads for recon and attack over the front resemble swarms…
just saying says
Countering Geran-2 does not require most advanced anti-air systems. It does require very large number of short range systems. Whatever they have left of those is probably on the frontline trying to keep Russian close air support at bay.
The document is about Soviet and post-Soviet military strategy. NCOs are essential to the American command structure which divides the military into two distinct classes . Officers. And those actually fighting, with NCOs translating orders from above. The article talks about the first Chechen War and Afghanistan. Neither the Chechens nor the Afghans had NCOs — and did very well. The present Russian army has something closer to German Auftragstaktik. And officers are expected to put their lives on the line along with their men’s. The emphasis is on situational awareness and dynamic flexibility. I explain that here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/bidens-war-humpty-takes-a-fall
Alex Thrace says
Not totally on topic but does anyone think that Biden signing the order to annihilate China’s semiconductor will force China to retaliate, much like the oil embargo forced the Japanese in WWII?
It seems the powers in the US truly want WW3 or at least an excuse to clamp down domestically?
If the Dems can’t engineer the midterm results they want, what, martial law because of Russian and Chinese aggression?
I don’t see the Dems happily handing over the reins with a smile.
China already retaliated by no longer trans-shipping Russian energy to Europe.
Is the USA using the semiconductor sanctions as a provocation against China for Taiwan? Much the same as the way the USA used Ukraine against Russia.
It kinda looks like they’re trying to provoke the dragon into retaliating to me.
If China isn’t allowed a semiconductor industry of it’s own all it has to do is take Taiwan’s industry in return.
Imagine the last few years semiconductor shortages on steroids.
China has about half of the biggest chip/tech manufacturers globally. This has been long time coming and they already bought all the machines needed. They may miss updated versions of top tech but they already have large number patents in this area.
The highest end manufacturing they are cut out of but most researchers specislising in this area in the US are Chinese, Indian followed by Russia/Eastern Euopean origin.
Specialists in this area they have local expertise and are trying to tempt Chinese American experts back.
Taiwan tech very easily aquireable by China and top notch. Raw materials needed, they have ready supply chains.
China may be slower slightly in certain areas but they are prepared for this and will generally likely keep pace once they fully home grow machine supply lines.
In terms of Russia I would be very scared of an enemy that can turn a washing machine into a hypersonic weapon as according to the MSM.
Alex Thrace says
“I would be very scared of an enemy that can turn a washing machine into a hypersonic weapon as according to the MSM.”
That was awesome, yeah, stealing that!. The Russians are nothing if not resourceful.
Please consider that the Empire has a Monoparty form of government. The midterms and presidential elections are just kayfabe and bafflegab to distract us mopes. As Biden dared to say right out loud, whatever the electoral outcome, however it is perverted, “nothing will substantially change.” Businesses buy influence from all legislators, party does not matter.
The country is ruled by the people who have built the legal system, starting with the original Constitution, to favor the wealthy and assist them into gaining more wealth until today, they own what, over 80% of everything outright, “all nice and legal.” They own the legislature, the executive and agencies, and now the courts, by dint of long application to furthering their class interests.
And yes, there are two classes in the US and a lot of other places. As Warren “I own 10 percent of everything” Buffett says, “Of course there’s a class war in America, and my class, the rich class, is winning.”(at other places he is quoted to say “and my class, the rich class, has won.”) The vast majority of the mope population already subsists pretty close to Kraus “Dr. Evil” Schwab’s dictum that “you will own nothing, and you will be happy.”
The owners have let us buy lots of guns and “tactical gear.” That may or may not be a mistake, depending on events — remember another Robber Baron, Jay Gould, famously said “I can pay one half of the working class to kill the other half.” Workers are starting to show just a bit of the togetherness that might let them break the current model, but the owners have always shown the ability to break unions, by scabs and violence or by more laws that cripple them, or by just absorbing the union leadership into the ruling class. The current railroad “contract” is a fine example.
The big question with respect to private gun ownership and politics is whether, as things start to unwind, the “professional military” will follow orders to shoot protesters and “armed insurrectionists.” Which they did do to the Bonus Marchers in 1932, https://www.historynaked.com/the-bonus-marchers/. Note that billionaires are having a hard time figuring out how to keep their private armies from just shooting them after the Collapse and taking their stuff. https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/wv7lfy/as_nations_collapse_a_new_horror_arises/
i fear that what we call “capitalism” and “Nat z ism” are worse and more persistent and mortal viruses than Covid. Maybe the Russians and Chinese will go on to give humanity a “fair multipolar world,” may have figured out how to rein in the greed gene and the lust for hegemonic power. I’m not sanguine on that score.
American nuclear launch operators have been caught cheating on their safety and such exams, more than once.( Maybe drugs as well but cannot say forsure.)
Butt Brandon has the nerve to go the nasty on Pakistani Military today?
Ice Cream diplomacy.
Warren Buffet ice cream on corporate general meeting day. Good for a folksy laugh!
Brandon : the forced ice narrative is a cringe worthy embarrassment.
You cannot fake big balls & if you are hot, you are hot, if you are not, your not!
Same goes for cool.
So it’s another defeat, this time in Ukraine and an American nuclear holocaust coast to coast follow up. The rest of the planet then endures a slow horrifying death. Why ?because nobody does war and destruction like Uncle Samuel.
For the love of God can someone in America start talking about CONSEQUENCES!
I am a human being and Larry’s Post today is upsetting and all together too much for the human unit.
While some of us humans are worried about inflation or nuclear war, our Western leaders casually stop at the ice cream shop:
richard braverman says
Great Article, but……………..
“…………..Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US was the title of the President’s Daily Brief prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency and given to U.S. President George W. Bush on Monday, August 6, 2001. The brief warned, 36 days before the September 11 attacks, of terrorism threats from Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda……………..”
Well yeah, they needed a collective “Lee Harvey Oswald”
or the public would have figured out that they (CIA and Mossad) did it.
The popular perception of the era was Carl Sagan’s nuclear Winter and taking the total mega tonnage of the available weapons and dividing it by global population and assigning the volume needed to kill a person etc…..alot of fear mongering to support the then narrative of scaring the shit out of everyone….weapons systems aside and strategy….just the fact that most western nations have no civil defense mechanisms in place for it’s civilian populations whilst Russia does tells me that the Russian economy and Nation would bounce back faster than the U.S after a large nuclear exchange….
As I read this, and the comments, I thought I was watching a rerun of Dr. Strangelove! Sadly, the truth is that is exactly where we’re headed with the criminally insane lunatics especially in the West calling themselves leaders of nations whom they have no problem destroying at their whim for powers sake and the World with it – the consequences be damned for the Armageddon Crowd! God help us all!
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Surface fleets and combatants have been obsolete for some time for the simple reason that they’re such expensive and politically prestigious platforms- especially aircraft carriers, but even cruisers and frigates – that countries will become exceedingly unhappy about the prospect of even committing them to an action where they stand a serious chance of being sunk. I am reminded of the Indian Navy’s boasting about its new aircraft carrier- basically a rehashed and less capable Kuznetsov – when anyone who knows anything about the Indian Navy is extremely well aware that it will never be committed to action. As long back as 1971 when the Pakistani Daphne Class coastal submarine sank the old and obsolete Indian frigate Khukri with a (conventional) torpedo, India immediately abandoned all its proactive and aggressive naval activities and spent the rest of that war in submarine defence.
Meanwhile your hypothesis about Russia surviving a nuclear conflict presupposes that nuclear winter is a myth. I would not make that assumption myself.
As for MAD, it makes, as we saw again between nuclear armed India and nuclear armed Pakistan in 1999, it makes *non nuclear conventional war* more likely, not less.
Russia wins a nuclear war. Apart from being able to deliver more destruction and repel/block more incoming, there is the most basic element: for every calorie of food and American eats, there’s 35 calories of transport. In Russia, it’s 2. After the smoke clears, we starve to death, they don’t. The globalist push has eliminated any semblance of self-sufficiency, the key element to survival in the event of a nuclear holocaust. They aren’t spoiled, and will be better adapted to a harsh life. Eastern Europeans generally grow big gardens, and keep a few chickens or hogs around for food. We have bare shelves now. Let that sink in – we’re short of food now. That will not improve with a nuclear attack.
Jim Giles says
Most high IQ people are poor writers, i.e., they write over the average man’s head. And what they write is not understood. It’s too complex and complicated. It makes no sense whatsoever to the common man.
Some here, like you Mac, are the exception and Larry too, i.e., you are super smart and you convey your ideas succinctly and clearly. It makes sense and is understood by the common man.
My grandfather used to say, “Life is about survival.”
Tough leaders if they ever emerge will have more to say than is being said here so far about what is needed to survive.
But food is a great starting point! Note the emphasis on toughness too.
Very good comments, thank you. The calories are most instructive. The toughness, or lack of it, is glaring in the mega drop in testocerone among 25 year olds. That should be screaming in the headlines every day and it isn’t. I would venture a guess that that situation does not apply to Russian 25 year olds. Also, see Kins Domains for a glimpse of how that other sees the world.
” … the Russian military could” … “destroy the U.S. nuclear response with limited (albeit horrific) damage to Russia.”
Larry, are you saying the Russians know where our boomers are at all times, and can sink them on demand? Because that’s what would it take, at minimum, for Russia to survive an American counter-strike.
An American nuclear response on mother Russia, just from the boomers, will involve dozens of air-burst EMP’s and well over a thousand strikes on the force multipliers, which these days mostly include nuclear power plants and legacy nuclear waste facilities, but some of the old stuff as well, like dams and such.
The basic Overkill counter-strike target package. Everything must be killed several times over, and the best way to do it, is to shut everything down permanently and forever irradiate the environment.
Otherwise, the argument is Russian surface to air is so good and so extensive, it can not only take out EMP designated warheads before they detonate in space, but also have the capability to intercept the rest of the incoming warheads long after they’ve entered their terminal phase, and are reaching speeds of Mach 24 and beyond.
It does not take much for a counter-strike to be successful. Vaporize a 10 or so spent fuel pools and bracket the enemy with no more than a dozen air-burst EMPs and all but the underground few will be dead within a year.
In other words, 3 or 4 nuclear tipped missiles of one variety or another MIRVed to a modest 7 or 8, is about all it would take.
This is scary. I thought I had to worry about my country. Are the Russians starting to believe they can launch a nuclear first stike on the US and win?
If so, you gotta get them boomers Russkies, all 14* of em, knock out nearly 100% or more of our siloed ICBMs, and eliminate nuclear capable facilities ranging from Texas to Diego Garcia, and God knows where else, and do it all … simultaneously.
*Including the 7 (to 10?) that are always at sea and running so silent and deep, USNavy hunter-killers have never found one, even when they’re told where to look.
At least that’s what I’ve been led to believe all these years by my Navy.
Larry Johnson says
I’m saying the Russians could, in theory, defeat the missiles fired by those subs.
The S-400s and 500s are so advanced, and so numerous, they may have the capability – if not now perhaps, then soon – to intercept thousands of warheads while they are in vertical descent and reaching speeds in the vicinity of Mach 24?
That’s incredible. And frightening.
If it’s even close to a realization, these defensive capabilities, then yes, MAD is off, because it means the Russian Federation will soon have the ability to eliminate the US, or any other nuclear nation for that matter, with impunity.
No wonder we are so fervently pursuing the biological. In a way, I don’t blame us, as we may now be the ones in the abject postion of desperately needing a credible deterrent.
Top Gum says
Russia made many diplomatic offers to work together with the west. They were snubbed countess times. They tried it. The west wants to run the show, is not interested in giving up/ make up for what they have stolen and killed over the decades. Russia is not gonna do some first strike on the west. The west will have to accept the new reality, start working together or else they will go bust anyway. Western economies are in shambles, their governments insanely indebted. They have no way out anyway. If they choose to attack Russia in one last desperate move, that will be their last mistake. Russia knows exactly **who** is responsible for what and **where** they are. They know, you got to get the root our, otherwise the problem will resurface again at some point.
“Russia is not gonna do some first strike on the west.”
This is not relevant. The claim is that Russia has achieved, or soon will achieve, nuclear primacy, a concept that has never been close to being realized by either side in the 70 years of this nuclear stand-off.
If true, it means the US must respond, so if you think spending $870 billion yearly on defense is too much, then think again. If my country has to sell its soul to get out this Nuclear First Strike Window that it has apparently fallen into, then it must do it, and if that means tripling defense spending, I’m all for it.
Let a real arms race begin.
I can’t tell you how shocking this all is. As someone who has followed nuclear affairs for more than 50 years, there has never been any development even remotely as destablising as this one.
A participant in “the game” is boasting that it can win.
I don’t think there is any evidence s400/500 can do this yet.
The technology maybe going in the right direction but I haven’t seen any evidence they are there.
Poseidon is made to take out US navy, it’s never been tested, computer simulations, but so far Russian subs are notch.
Add to that the armaments in space, Russia has the weapons to take out space capacity faster from what is known. It’s illegal to use space for warfare but we are already there.
Nuclear war will be hell on earth, the lack of seriousness and push back from those mooting it is dangerous. How did we get here so fast. And they even got Bernie.
“I don’t think there is any evidence s400/500 can do this yet.”
No there isn’t. Such a layered surface to air/space missile defense system will have one chance and one chance only to prove itstelf, when it faces off against thousands of incoming warheads arriving simultaneously from all angles and directions and doing speeds in the Mach 20 to Mach 30 range.
The claim here is that such an assault can be parried, in theory, with “limited damage,” meaning, there are powerful elements within the superstructure of the Russian Federation that now believe they can fight a nuclear war and win.
Such a mindset I find far more threatening (and insane!)for instance, than the armeggedon wing of the Republican Party, the Evangelicals and the like, who are aware that “the exchange” will likely kill everyone, but so what, the Death of Life is a good thing, as it is all part of God’s greater plan.
No, this is different. This is a simple belief in a military victory, albeit a victory much that would be much greater than all the other victories in the history of warfare combined, times many, many millions.
And the thing of it is, what they don’t tell you, is if their calculations are off, even by the smallest of margins, if their is even the tiniest tiniest flaw in the “layering” of the vaunted S-400s and 500s, then all 40 of Russia’s nuclear power plants will be vaporized, and their grid, from Murmansk to Vladivistok, will cease to funtion for all eternity.
“How did we get here so fast.”
For some us, it’s actually been a relatively slow process. For me, I guess it all started in 1960 when I was born. As someone who has ever since, kept his eye on “the game,” if anything, it’s a something of shock to me that it took so long to arrive at this … what should we call it? … critical juncture in the affairs of humans?
That is theory. The performance of the Russian military against a third tier power has been pathetic.
” you realize that M.A.D is no longer a reality.”
That is not the best analysis you are capable of, especially with a comment like “the Russian military could present President Putin with a viable plan that would destroy the U.S. nuclear response with limited (albeit horrific) damage to Russia. ”
Their other plans did not work out too well to date. It doesn’t take many megatons to lay waste to urban Russia, starting with Moscow and St. Petersburg. As to Andrei’s naval analysis what sank the Moskva? It wasn’t the Ukrainian surface fleet; and that was the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, even if it was decades old.
A plan is not reality, though it needs to be based in it and not in fantasy.
Dude, you quote the man (Larry Johnson) and yet you dont read!
“the Russian military could present President Putin with a viable plan that would destroy the U.S. nuclear response with limited (albeit horrific) damage to Russia.”
Viable. Does. Not. Mean. It. Will. Work.
Do you see the danger, now?
Perhaps you should look up the English meaning of the word viable. “Capable of working” is exactly what that word means.
Please read your own comment. You use capable wrt Larry’s analysis (i disagree), not a plan to use advanced Russia weapons to wind a nuclear war.
The quote is about a viable plan.
Ok, here it is, spelled out. If a viable plan (say claimed at 50% likely to succeed) to win a nuclear war can be presented, then the possibility that the Kremlin implements is non-zero. If it succeeds, the west is a charnal field, and the East gets on with the future. It if fails the entire world is a charnal field and there is no future.
Personally, I would rather there was not a viable plan to test either outcome.
“But then George W. Bush …”
I voted for him 4 time. twice as governor, twice as president.
I would love to take all that back. Disregarding the obvious, he ushered in the No Left Child Behind act, which 2 of my children hid in my house because of the tests in elementary.
W, though, made sure with the Patriot Act, allowed Obama to weaponize tge government .
Today he he supports anyone other than Trump.
Dan D. says
You lot can opine all you want but I want to know about intercepting a Russian targeted weapon at 2.5 miles/second. That isn’t Phalanx stuff, it has to be directed energy. Did any of the eggheads at Northrop or Raytheon ever field anything outside of their egghead lab? As a physicist I would vote no. Just like the fake littoral combat vessel with its non-op rail guns. It’s all CG renderings, tax dodges and essentially bullshit.
Underestimate Russia all you want. But American firepower has been crap on a crap cracker for 20 years and you know it, deep down. “Oh hey, we have Rods from God.” Great, after – God hoping – Russia vaporizes DC and Virginia to wipe the unamerican scum off this globe.
Top Gum says
I guess after the fall of the Soviet Union, the US leadership or whatever think-tank was responsible for that matter, assumed the new Russia would stay the same and was not a threat. So they snubbed everything in that direction and that relationship and went on as a fearless but also over-confident hegemon. They simply underestimated Russia’s development, away from socialism into a well oiled capitalistic machine as-well as their tireless efforts in open diplomacy to talk some sense into the collective west, not understanding how Russia was about to counter that behavior. They practically made Russia what it is today, a mostly self sufficient and very capable and serious world-power. Same goes for China, in my opinion.
You nailed it.
As usual it’s about oil folks.
The US took Iraq, Libya, Syria “back to the stone age” more or less. Why? Because if they’re left to evolve without interference, oil producing countries end up using too much of their own oil, rather than exporting it.
Look at the totally ridiculous lifestyles in Dubai, Saudi, Qatar etc. Energy per capita is through the roof. Saudi is on the shit list now after their recent production cut, so the regime change engine will be revving up for them.
The objective is to reduce the population in the producing countries and destroy their public infrastructure, so they have to fall back to a subsistence type lifestyle.
Russia is rebuilding the parts of Ukraine it now owns, but few countries have the capability any more to do that. In most places once infrastructure is gone it’s not coming back.
The EU has reached its use by date with a high energy per capita and not much left in the way of resources, so they’ve been scheduled for controlled demolition. In the meantime they and Ukraine are a useful tool to tie up Russia.
I don’t think nuclear war is likely. Once the EU is toast, the next candidate for the stone age lifestyle will be lined up and on we roll.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Back in the 1980s I read something in an Indian magazine (Frontline) I still remember. The writer, commenting on the West’s hegemonic grip on the Arab world, said
“Americans genuinely believe it is their oil, which just happens to be located under the sands of the Arabian peninsula.”
Thank you for coming to this point. What puzzles me is the question how much the US citizens care about this threat. Do they really understand what this threat means to them? We just heard here in Europe that new York made videos about how people should hide in this event. What was the reaction? Did other states follow?
In brief: Do they really care, or just believe that Russia has not enough technology to start this strike?
Could you make a query on the streets asking US citizens whether they believe that Russia has such complex technology as nuclear bombs? Maybe 50 percent will tell a blunt No, and assume Russians only can throw stones….
Too right. UK defense ministry already putting out info Russian nukes are old and may not even work.
One more scenario to consider. China and India are nuclear powers. If there is a nuclear war strikes on Russia affect them more. Especially China. What will they do?
Strike their own enemies fast
Coordinate with Russia to reduce US capacity or vice versa
Hard to believe they will do nothing.
Am sure this is right.
Russia spends approximately the same amount of cash on defence as the UK does.
But we have a military these days that frankly can deploy at most 1-2 brigades, has zero hyper sonic missiles but does have a couple of sitting duck aircraft carriers with F35s. We also have Trident but who knows how good a deterrent this really is. Despite the wall to wall propaganda very little of this in general feels fit for purpose and the value for money is astonishingly poor. Endless multi decade programs to just vacuum up money. Not even remotely comparable to Russia’s quantity and probably inferior qualitatively.
Any criticism is met by the establishment shrugging its shoulders and saying that prices are lower in Russia. It is a total cop out. The whole defence industry and the military here is a job creation, officer career factory and shareholder enrichment scheme. Then we accuse Russia of being corrupt. We need a very large mirror.
Jams O'Donnell says
Yeah. The RN is crap now. The ‘Daring’ destroyers are so noisy – unstealthy propellors, rattling hatch covers – that they are sitting ducks for any sub. And their missiles are only AA. Comparable units in other navies have Anti Air, Anti Ship and Anti Sub missiles – and more of them. The frigates are sort of ok, but getting pretty old now. The subs – can’t launch without US approval.
The RAF – obsolete planes, many of them in repair – if they can get spares
The Army – obsolete tanks, and more generals than soldiers – like the Navy, more admirals than ships.
UK AUS NZ and CAN will be increasingly be used to fit into US military and operations. 5 eyes total integration on a military level is underway.intelligence already there. These countries will effectively move as one beast under US command. NATO is already obsolete.it is primarily a tool for control not a cohesive fighting force.
Silly game for UK etc to play as they erode sovereignty but they may have more say in than out of such a structure.
Over time what’s left of EU may also become an adjunct unit of US. that would complete the destruction of the nation state as far as the West goes.
I am in a kind of agreement with IpsPrez. I am not an American citizen, but due to my job, since last year I have been regularly visiting 4-5 times per year.
During one of my trips I had spare time, and I took the opportunity to visit the Space Museum at Cape Canaveral.
I was very impressed by the enormous technical effort documented there that the USA did, just to allow a man to set foot for a few hours on the Moon. I cannot believe that all that remain of such technological heritage is… F-35.
There must be something more, that we don’t know, since it is kept secret, and may be a game changer, or thought to be as such.
This could explain why the apparent disparity between the two opposite forces’ strategic deterrent is ignored by US upper political management.
I really hope that my above hypothesis is wrong, because viceversa I believe we would all in great peril.
Off topic but important – Lefty Bundestag leader of a minor Party asks hard questions about the Nordstream 1 and 2 sabotage – gets stonewalled even on the most trivial questions;,
Given the answers given by German Intelligence – one can only surmise they know Washington blew up the pipelines.,
(Use machine translation)
Of course they know:
“It is clear that Sweden withdrew from the joint investigation with Germany into the circumstances of the explosion on the strings of the SP-2 gas pipelines because it received an order from Washington to eliminate all evidence that could indicate the involvement of the United States and Britain. A feature of the modern policy of sabotage is the openness of their customers literally from the very beginning after the incident. Nobody hides: gas pipelines were blown up by the United States, and in front of the eyes of the whole world, they are taking out evidence of a crime with the hands of a puppet.
At the same time, the victim – Germany – understands everything and does not dare to say a single word against. How Germany dares not say a word against the storage of German gold in the USA, against the US military bases in Germany, against the total wiretapping of the telephones of German politicians by the US intelligence services, against the fact that Washington directly controls the German media, universities, the formation of political parties, their programs, personnel reserve and economy.
Germany, Sweden, Denmark, all of Europe understand that pushing the US out of Europe means a nuclear war in Europe. And the United States will start it. During the Second World War, they already showed that they easily make such decisions and do not stop before their implementation. So the pro-American sympathies of the European elites are driven not by cultural and civilizational kinship, not by fear of Russia, but by animal fear of the United States. Europeans can easily come to an agreement with Russia in Europe, but not with the United States.
And so Sweden understands what it must do on gas pipelines. And Germany understands what it must do. Sweden, before the eyes of Germany, will take out American evidence of sabotage on the German gas pipeline. And Germany will turn away and show that she not only sees nothing, but also does not want to look in that direction.
Germany’s attempts to conduct its own investigation after Sweden are aimed at a domestic audience. It must be shown that Germany somehow reacted to what was done to it. If you don’t do anything, it’s completely indecent somehow. How to conduct a medical examination for rape, when the victim was taken to the shower three times and washed away all traces from the body.
The fact that Sweden is doing this job before Germany shows that the United States does not trust Germany. This is understandable: the Germans never obeyed the United States when they built gas and oil pipelines from Russia. The US understands that its dominance is based only on fear of them, blind and animal horror of unlimited violence. The atomic bombing of Japan, the carpet bombings of Dresden and Hamburg showed this clearly. The US is not a country that can be pointed to the door and they will leave.
So when Sweden says that because of confidentiality, it will conduct the investigation alone, it calls into question the object of confidentiality. In fact, Sweden plays the role of an investigator who says that the accused of rape cannot be named out loud, since this is a very famous and important person.
And the raped Germany by all appearances shows that she has no claims against anyone, and she is not going to report to the police. Otherwise, violence will easily turn into murder, and the investigator will again classify the results of the investigation. After all, the murderer does not even think of hiding, and the investigator does not even think of pretending to be objective. This is the reality in the world of American allies, and nothing can be done about it. Became an ally of the United States – get ready to explain any bruises by falling down the stairs. Those who disagree do not live long, like Gaddafi and Hussein.”
From here: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7922724.html
“….So the pro-American sympathies of the European elites are driven……but by animal fear of the United States. Europeans can easily come to an agreement with Russia in Europe, but not with the United States….“
Shocking, but seems to be the only explaination
To be free of the US, Europe needed the UK with France to help create a defence system of its own.
It had plans for an EU Army and satellite system. That is now dust. The UK sees only 5eyes as the future. Europe is finished.
I am in the UK. In 2018, out of curiousity, I went to a British Army Reserves open day. I was shocked at the junk that was on display: aged computers that looked like they used Windows 95, unarmoured Land Rovers (without even a gunshield), and all sorts of other obsolete stuff. I actually aimed a practice (inert) NLAW: it weighs about the same as a sack of potatoes so is completely unportable. The Sergeant who demonstrated it said he’d only ever fired two training missiles in his entire career in anti-tank platoon.
OK, this was the reservists, for part-time soldiers, but they are deployed in war now (that’s why they changed from being the Territorial Army = defensive and not deployable outside UK).
Not remotely a modern army. No wonder they lost in Basra and Helmand Province in Afghanistan.
Mark Marksson says
Our best protection is that there seems little likelihood of the Russians being pushed to such desperate measures by a defeat in the Ukraine, where their ultimate military victory still seems assured. As was pointed out to our “leaders” repeatedly from the beginning, Russia will always have escalation superiority in the Ukraine, because it *matters* to them whereas it’s another adventure for the US regime, and Russia’s military potential is far bigger and more capable than anything the Ukraine could ever field. And the economic and diplomatic warfare initially relied upon by the US sphere elites seems to have failed.
If mutual destruction is not necessarily assured, I don’t believe the certainty of any of these calculations (read: guesses) is anything like good enough for any decision maker to rely upon them, except in ultimate desperation. Unlike the US sphere leaders, the Russian leaders seem pragmatic and rational enough to rely upon in such a situation.
The main remaining concern is that the leaders in the US sphere have a flaky track record that does not inspire confidence in their reason or their nerve.
The great post WWII fallacy of the NATO alliance was that America’s victory during WWII would always allow the Americans to dominate Western Europe to keep the Europeans and specifically Germany down and the Russians out. The fundamental flaw in that plan was only Russia has the
energy, food and natural resources to sustain Europe’s post colonial economies in the long run.
The US/NATO alliance’s neocolonial plan always depended on NATO’s ability to divide and subjugate Russia inorder to plunder Russia’s resources to sustain Europe’s energy and food and natural resource needs. But that did not and will not happen which means the NATO military alliance against Russia is no longer practical or possible. The obsolete NATO military alliance will eventually wither away as Europeans turn eastward to secure their indispensible energy, food and natural resource needs from Russia which America cannot economically provide to Europe
Any place the Americans can look for some generous nation to share the energy, food and natural resources that the Russians can provide (only under fair contracts, however) to Borrell’s “garden,” after the walls collapse and desperation sets in? Canada? Mexico? Cuba? Haiti? The “banana republics” and “little sh!thole countries” of Central and South America and Africa?
So glad that some of my relatives and friends have taken long strides toward personal autonomy, with their own kitchen gardens and hen coops and barter connections. Though how they will fare when the city and suburban folks, all armed and also desperate, use their last bit of gasoline to flee the hellhole cities and slurbs. I’m infirm and old enough to be resigned to my own likely fate if the Bad Stuff happens before I start my dirt nap. Wish we could have done something different… maybe this generation will get to see the resolution of the Fermi Paradox. https://mysteriousuniverse.org/2016/10/scientist-says-aliens-destroyed-themselves-and-we-will-too/
Is there much worth preserving of what we naked chimps have put in place?
“FORGET M.A.D., CAN RUSSIA DEFEAT THE UNITED STATES IN A NUCLEAR WAR?”
Some social relations are immersed in the linear evaluations which facilitated Mr. Westmoreland’s ill-informed reliance on body counts.
Some “tourists” had the illusions that they “understood” “The Soviet Union” and the “Russian Federation” – Mr. Stephen F. Cohen being one example of many, particularly in his “Soviet Fates and lost alternatives” predicated on notions that the facilities of “The Soviet Union” in strategy formulation post 1922 were so inept, that it became subject to fate not systemic design, the book being a linear extrapolation of Mr. Cohen’s assumptions.
“FORGET M.A.D., CAN RUSSIA DEFEAT THE UNITED STATES IN A NUCLEAR WAR?”
The headline above is also based on an assumption that The Russian Federation were/are so inept in strategy formulation that they should ignore the Presidential Decree number 355 of 3rd June 2020 , updated in respect of matters of biological warfare, and should concentrate on/explore “how to defeat the United States in a nuclear war”, an additional assumption being that “The United States of America” is a “nation state” in a particular location, rather than a network of coercive social relations with worldwide practice requiring worldwide response.
To some degree the Presidential Decree number 355 of 3rd June 2020 was informed by a question posed by some from 1969 onwards namely:
“How to drown a drowning man (whose fiat strategies from 1970 onwards were mostly in hope of precluding drowning) with the minimum of blowback ? (given that the drowning man appears immersed in my penis is bigger than yoursness, magic bullets, and mantra de jour.)”
The utility of illusions that “we know best” was not limited to the 1990’s, but as a tag line for the CIA notes: “The Central Intelligence Agency” – pissing the world off and undermining “The United States of America” since 1947.”
Consequently to use the register of practitioners, your question of “Is the Russian penis bigger than our penis ?” like the pontifications of Mr. Stephen F. Cohen is ultra vires but not an ultra virus.
Is that you NotRubbingSticks? Guess you found another superhero pointless word salad suit to join the fray, welcome back, we missed you!
Top Gun says
I think most readers in here remember Bidens speach not long ago, when he stated proudly that the US is standind by Ukraine. We all saw how that worked out so far. Anyone seriously believing the US has anything remotely capable to start/win a real standoff with Russia? For my part, I don’t. US is nothing but a shallow remains of once a great nation. This talk about nuking Russia is nothing else than a desperate attempt to intimidate them as a move for self-defense. US army and the current Democratic regime both know, that they lag behind at least 20 years. Now their own existance is on the line, not the other way around.
Should the situation develop somehow to that point, I think we all will see the very same repetition of the statement above. Even France has already stated that they won’t do anything unless their own security is endangered. Only a total fool would go all in for some meaningless proxy. And that really is the fate of Ukraine. They are meaningless, with a perfect idiot at the helm, a comedian that once played piano with his d**k.
You can’t make this up anymore.
peformance matters says
Again, thank you for keeping us informed of reality on national defense, or lack of it.
Time to re-read “Atlas Shrugged” and build an underground bunker (no can do in Florida, Larry)…
If it isn’t the foolish practice of detente by Western leaders, then its the power hungry domestic communists masquerading as climate alarmists, or its the modern monetary theorists having flooded the global trading system with inflated Fiat currencies (including the $US)…
Larry, from 1981 when mortgage rates peaked in 1981 near 19%, MEW provided homeowners a source of funds to use to buy bigger homes, a second home, or anything desired as the FED brought mortgage rates down to a low of 2% during the following 40 years, ending in 2021. see https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30
With mortgage rates having risen back up recently to 7%, MEW has evaporated, terminating an important engine driving the illusion of economic expansion. Two other consequences of Central Bank withdrawal of banking system liquidity: a surge in the cost of borrowing for the US Treasury and very sharp decline in balance sheet values for banks, insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds’ values from the decline in value of bonds and stocks: 2022 YTD decline for Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index through Oct. 14 has been 16% !!! Although the S&P 500 has declined 2022 year to date by more than 23%, there is room to expect recovery of stock prices over time from recovery of earnings growth. This is not the case for bonds, where the interest payments are fixed! The present value of defined benefit plans has been permanently robbed of 16% of its current present value and will need severe additional funding for the retiring boomers… With business profits under pressure now and for 2023, there is little room for expected funding…
You dont’ need to be an actuarial accountant to understand that withdrawals to fund boomer retirement benefits will keep this actuarial decline in place for an indefinite time…
With GDP growth buried under the fallout of economic rubble from higher mortgage rates (did we forget to mention that market values for mortgage collateral is also declining?) and retirement funding significantly, maybe permanently, impaired, will the fear of inflation be replaced with the fear of deflation once the supply chain is repaired, if ever?
If our leadership’s cavalier irresponsible goading of a nuclear armed to the teeth Russia doesn’t destroy us through nuclear destruction, we may have already cannibalized our future with our leadership’s cavalier fiscal irresponsible conduct with phony baloney monetary policies…
Jams O'Donnell says
Anyone who thinks ‘Atlas Shrugged’ is any kind of guide to reality deserves what they will get.
Cris from Caracas says
Funny now in hindsight to know that Ayn Rand was Russian….pre telling the coming debacle of losers getting the power to rule society….i love to watch the Rand haters, somehow they exemplify the core truth she so easily; but so repetitive in her writings; exposes the insoluble mindset of Progressives….I mean communists….I mean climate apologists….I mean control freaks….I really mean LOSERS…..the ones that can’t do it by themselves, but have to piggyback on producers and creators, and pick their pockets….like Howard Roark stated in court: parasites.
Check out this scene from one of Rand’s books: https://youtu.be/AX4MKIDvXLM
Russia doesn’t need to use nuclear weapons. Unless they make a whole series of deliberately counter-productive decisions, they can’t lose in Ukraine. They also have the means to overwhelm any conventional escalation by NATO.
It’s hilarious really. Russia said their aim was to demiltarise Ukraine, then the West/US went and demiltarised themselves by shipping everything they had to Ukraine, without the industrial base to replace it in any sensible timeframe.
A warning for the Russians though via a recent US DoD press release: “Correct use of gender pronouns increases force lethality.” Who needs nuclear weapons with that winning edge?
Remember the overall objective is to stone age the EU, per Libya etc to reduce oil consumption.
The main problem here, as I see it, is that by preventing Russian capitalism from sharing fairly in the global pie the US have pushed the Russian state into the role of defender of the Russian polis, a role that western states have largely given up on.
Compare this to the US, a country that is largely run for the benefit of competing private commercial interests. I’d imagine it’s very difficult under the neoliberal premise to attain a robust enough commonality of purpose.
This is the path that a post soviet Russia would’ve naturally followed. But, since we snubbed them and threatened them with colonial status (and even almost brought it into being in the 90s), the Russian state did not enjoy the right conditions to afford to follow the path of greedy mindless growth but instead had to concentrate on its human, social and cultural capital. It’s finding strength in what your adversary fails at. Apart from the fact that Russia’s political history already contains lessons on an alternative to western al out capitalism. Is this the proof of the realism of Marxist thought (I’m taking into account that Russia’s system is capitalist, but…)
This is fascinating and thank you for raising the issue, Larry.
Let’s get one thing out of the way. If Russia wanted to, it could destroy the West and US right now in one massive nuke strike, with hypersonic weapons. It is scary but unfortunately true – the West has no answer to these weapons. One of the worst of Obama’s terrible legacy was his abandonment of hypersonic capabilities in favour of UAV/drones.
The Russians never gave up on hypersonic capabilities, however. Turns out that they were way smarter than Obama & Co – streets ahead.
In a Russian first strike, the first wave would be so devastating that the West would be unlikely to have the capability to respond, but the second and third waves would hit the West so fast and hard – and likely before the West could launch a response – that it would be all over fast. Russia wins.
Thankfully, Russian nuclear doctrine does not permit for a unilateral first strike like this, so right now it would not happen. But let’s say that the Russians decide to invoke their doctrine of self defence and to go nuclear. What happens then?
As I see it, if the West had not used a nuke to cause such a crisis, we should refer to para 2 above as the likely scenario. The West loses big time. But let’s say that the West gives credible indication that it’s going to use nukes, or decides to launch some. What happens then?
I’m no expert, but it stands to reason that if the Russians have developed offensive hypersonic weapons with manoeuvrability and mach 15+ speed, they have also worked out the tech required to defend against them.
In fact, we know that this is the case, as the S500 has such a capability as do variants of the S400. Not just that but as Martyanov has explained, the Russian systems are integrated into a layered defensive system incorporating satellites, airborne and terrestrial radar. This system can detect not just launches, but preparations before the launch of a nuke.
If the Russians have worked out effective defensive capability against inbound hypersonic weapons, then they have defensive systems that can take out any ballistic missile the West possesses. Why? Because the West does not possess hypersonic weapons capable of mach 5 or faster, and certainly has nothing with the manouverability of Messrs Khinzal, Zircon, Avangard etc. If the Russians can already defend against these weapons, they can defend against slower ones.
Given that the Russians have also likely mapped all launch sites on US soil, it provides them with the ability to hit ICBMs just after launch from those sites and certainly up to 500kms from any S500 system.
The West could use other platforms to launch nukes on Russia, of course. For example, subs and planes allow them to launch nukes. Again, though, the Russians likely have the defensive systems to detect and destroy these missiles.
We also need to consider what we don’t know. For example, I can recall Zhirinovsky (admittedly he was eccentric) boasting on Russian TV in 2018 that Russia had an S700. The point is that Russia likely has defensive and offensive systems that we don’t know about, again aimed at ‘winning’ a nuclear exchange and overcoming MAD.
The worst case scenario for Russia right now, as you allude to in your article, is a victory with horrible damage caused by the nukes that manage to get through Russian defences. However, based on my thinking above, it is also feasible that the Russians might emerge relatively unscathed in a nuclear exchange. That’s how revolutionary their offensive and defensive systems appear to be.
Let’s hope that we never find out.
Probably the only thing keeping us in the game is the US submarine fleet. Subs are near impossible to locate, and AFAIK warheads can be placed on target in under five minutes. Everything else in our arsenal is toast.
An alternative point of view here: http://disq.us/p/2rhj6df
Not sure how correct any of that is.
MAD doctrine or not, there is no need to nuke anybody : anyone trying a “fish” attack in upper atmosphere will fry masses of satellites , with due linked consequences everywhere around the whole globe.
Won´t go in on the “BinLaden did 9/11” spiel, just noting it, Lucky Larry and all that.
You´re forgetting about vehicles like Salvador Pais´s(and others) Multi-Medium Vehicles(shockingly similar to the so-called Tick-Tock scam) and what they can do even if they don´t solve the two-way communication problem there. I can build an onboard analog guidance system with accelerometers and gyroscopic systems that´ll get near enough to count with nukes.
There is a danger in falling into the trap of thinking our Banker Masters are dumb(like Martyanov) just because they are driving the *rest* of the West into ruin, at least a hundred years of scheming to get us, not them here. They are not though, I don´t know if they have set the board so the West falls(looks like) or smacking Russia into the Stone age with Pais´s vehicles, Musk´s Starlink(if you believe that he´s anything beyond a servant I got a nice bridge over there), the shockingly potent Nanorobotic weapons that DARPA got, Bio and other very high tech means.
Martyanov that I quite respect, has fallen head first in the “Russia-always-play-5D-chess-and-can-do-No-wrong” mire when we know that their command control, supply of Nightvision and tactical level drones leave a lot of room for improvement.
This isn´t an attack on anyone, just an appeal for a cooler analysis, although our rulers are wicked and Russia is in the right here I believe that going the subjective route is a mistake.
Always good to read your words.
Chess is a linear game – the linear paradigm including but not being restricted to/by “the rules” but also the “surfaces” upon which it is played- and hence since it is linear cannot be played in 5 dimensions.
“Big Data” through crested binaries and other “tools in attempts at obfuscation” are attempts to deny this, as is “game theory” as Mr. Von Neumann knew when he was an immigrant trying to work his passage, and consequently obfuscated for the rest of his career, being assigned the title of Pinocchio by some other practitioners.
Top Gum says
They really showed their advanced military tech when they kicked Afghanistan’s a** … or was it the other way around?
They have nothing, nada. If the had they would have used it long time ago and declared themselves rulers over this planet.
All they have is their power over MSM spreading their fakes 24/7 and practically declaring them the rulers they wanna be, but clearly aren’t. They lie cheat and steal … until they start killing the wrong people.
Russia has left them a way out, as always. Will they take it?
Does LARRY actually believe BIN LADEN is the mastermind that pulled off 9/11?
BIN LADEN used 2 planes to obliterate 3 WTC buildings?
BIN LADEN got norad to stand down so those planes were not intercepted by F16s?
Bin Laden made a dozen israeli students film the attack with prior knowledge and dance on top of the building they filmed rom when it suceeded?
Henry Tenenbaum says
Thank you for your history and perspective on it. I know this is rather pie in the sky or naive, but I must attest from history, that previous Russian made touted capabilities were just that touted. I am also of the opinion that what you wrote above may also be diversionary tactic for Russia to believe that the US is inept, fell very far behind and is not capable of severe retaliation or near impenetrable defenses. Reminds me of Mohammad Ali, “Rope a dope.” Is the US playing Rope a dope?
just saying says
“Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks.” (Attributed to multiple individuals, including Winston Churchill.)
Larry Johnson says
No. Just “dope”. Tell me why you believe that U.S. military capabilities are so extraordinary? What is your basis for that conclusion?
Jorge Nunes says
It’s an excellent question.
I’m reading Nick Turse’s book «Kill Anything That Moves» and I see the US as a military power in crisis.
I fully believe that we live in a new era.
Jim Christian says
Larry, you’re versed. If Israel dumps Iron Dome into Ukraine to fight Russian TacAir would Russia start using S400 in Syria against Israeli TacAir and American AWACS in the region?I Tit for tat, right? A widening of the war, no?
Skip Towne says
Why not from the beginning instead Mutual Assured Survival?
What insanity is it those with the power to determine such things they have held us hundreds of millions American’s and our counterparts across earth, hostages, to the madness of threatening the survival of us as a bargaining chip.
There is layers of madness involved here, and they do not originate in any military doctrine i have ever heard of. Thats the first thing.
If there is a defining moment in our countries history, a singular turning point, where those running shit attained absolute power, it is MAD. For we have as people going about our day held hostage to the heart of darkness, shoved into hellmouth as a matter of course. Everything else is been process rapine and pillage of wealth transfer and mass psychological warfare.
I would say if any one would ask such a thing, it would be a hill worth dying on, in other words an acceptable price for me, if I was to perish in a surgical strike on the center of power of this cabal, we all know the location of this madness, its secret evil society, its all but incomprehensible surveillance organ watching everything we do. Knowing what i do, having lived a generation from the so called Cuban missile crisis to present, meeting my maker knowing this evil’s minions incinerated in that hellfire, how fitting, how just, how effective. How it would be a great place to start. This world will never know peace and prosperity long as this ancient cabal exists. It’s destruction heralds in a new age of light and enlightenment. Nothing can dissuade me from the faith this is inevitable, that everything we are seeing now we are watching this evil’s final days, it’s institutional order is collapsing, it’s lost its ability to effectively operate along the fringes of the shadows, if i can see that so too millions of my countrymen, my fellow dirt people, particularly Russian. It is inevitable because it has always been the purview of us dirt people to effect positive change on this plane, there are no others, and that is as it should be. A great profound irony exists in this, as it is us dirt people, us good folks of this world who this cabal despises more than itself, who in the end wins simply because we are good folks and we always persevere no matter what, that yes our codes are ruthlessly violated but on the same token they are our codes and nobody gets to decide what our priorities are. Inherent in that is a unique agency, what can be called becoming manifest, that manifests itself in the form of good folks who had enough, and get really really mean, from being the nicest easiest go along to get along kind of people to the meanest people imaginable that nothing or nobody can stand. And right there around us is the brink of things, a kind of triggering of the amygdalae of a vast legion of K Strategists. Its almost palpable as it gets ready to start, a cascade zeitgeist not a thing but itself stops, and it does not stop till it chooses to. And that is the point in which this cabal no longer exists, not even a whiff of its sulfurous stink remains. War unlike any.
Putin said to his Chechen warrior friend Kadyrov, “We must live for something that is worth dying for” somebody from our past in the great slave revolt from tyranny of this cabal, said it another way as only could be coined from our Colonial Era, “Our Cause We Leave To God And Our Rifles”
Indeed to both as it should be.
the blame-e says
“. . . the [George W.] Bush Administration’s utter neglect of counter terrorism en lieu of focusing on developing a missile defense system” was based upon the fact that the technology was nowhere near ready for producing a real, practical, fully operational, missile defense system. Not even sub-orbitally, let alone something that could intercept incoming ICBMs.
Even today, in 2022, the Patriot Missile System is a joke. Israel’s Iron Dome is a myth. The Russians, with their hypersonic missile technology is the closest. However, Russia is at least a decade away from a targeting system.
However, even in 2001, counter terrorism was definitely doable. Hence 9/11. And “Yes,” I’m saying 9/11 was an inside job. The US government has been out of its mind for the past 30-years. I hardly believe that some tarp head living in a cave, in poor health, suffering from terminal kidney disease, and just years away from renal failure, was capable of directing other tarp heads how to fly modern jetliners into buildings.
Sorry. Maybe the Warren Commission can prove me wrong.
HMS Terror says
I harboured some healthy scepticism about the more extraordinary claims for the S400 & S500, but after seeing UA bloggers complaining about their artillery shells being knocked down I doubt no more.
The Russians (reportedly) are knocking artillery shells down at a 40% rate and MLRS munitions, including HIMARS at rates approaching 70%. One RU MoD report claimed that in one particular exchange the air defence knocked 12/12 HIMAR rockets down.
No other air defence on the planet is capable of deploying anything approaching that level of performance on the battlefield. Actually, I don’t know of any other that’s even trying to. In the case of artillery shells, it’s almost like hitting a bullet with a bullet 40% of the time. That’s simply astonishing. It indicates a level of resolution in detection and a suite of algorithms developing firing solutions and executing with a speed and accuracy hitherto unknown.
That a system like that is in the field, delivering that level of performance consistently in intense combat should give any opposing force pause. Whatever amount of ammo and gunnery you thought would do the job, multiply 2x. That alone takes most armies off the field. Even with perfect logistics, they simply can’t deliver 2x more for longer than half the time unless their MICs can likewise increase and sustain 2x production.
After that, ballistic and lumbering cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk don’t present much of a challenge, while F22s and F35s become flying barns. Well, for as long as their re-fuellers and AWACS controllers are allowed to keep flying.
If the Russians have built enough of them, the S400/S500/S550/S600 complexes tip the scales away from MAD towards AAD (Aggressor Assured Destruction). That may be great today, but tomorrow it may not be as it almost inevitably leads to delusions of impunity and we all know how that goes.
One hopes that when the dust from the transition to multipolarity settles, Russia’s advantage in air defence is diluted by a world wide treaty banning nuclear weapons. I’m pretty sure Russia would support such a treaty, if it didn’t propose and actively champion it.
“That may be great today, but tomorrow it may not be as it almost inevitably leads to delusions of impunity and we all know how that goes.”
Exactly. Putin might be a fine fellow well met who would never launch his arsenal against a helpless West, but what of those that might come after him?
And I get the irony of this situation better than anyone, as for 15 years I’ve been trying to explain to the deafening silence that the abrogation by the Bush administration in 2002 of the most important document ever signed by humans, the 1972 ABM Treaty, meant that the US was going to make every attempt to place the boot firmly on the Russian neck, and that could only lead to bad outcomes, and now it is the Russians who have cleverly turned the tables, and have the boot firmly on my country’s neck.
But this reversal in the boot on the neck scenario is in my estimation much more deadly, as the Russians, by all indications, believe a nuclear war can be fought and won, as they believe the world, or at least the Russian one, will be just fine and dandy in its aftermath.
I don’t know what the Game Theorists are doing these days in the bowels of the Pentagon, but if I was down there, and contemplating that my nuclear arsenal as it relates to Russian airspace is now obsolete, I’d start preparing target packages that looked to vaporize every nuclear power plant on this planet outside of Russia, including my own, and the rest of my 6,000 warheads would be seeking to the best environments for kicking up more than enough dust and debris to create a radiologically enhanced and therefore unsurvivable, nuclear winter.
Hell, I’d looking for ways to strip the atmosphere right off this planet.
The counter-strike is about one thing and one thing only, Overkill, and it does not matter in the slightest how you achieve it.
Overkill is MAD, and MAD is Overkill, there is no distinquishing between the two. Both are why we are still here.
Now we could as a species go a different way going forward, and eliminate nuclear weapons and other existential man-made threats to our existence, and I’d be all for it, but until we do, as an American who neither trusts my country nor anyone else’s to always do the right thing, I’d be looking for a credible deterrent, like say, informing the unipolar Russian hegemon, that all 6,500 of our warheads are now programmed to detonate in the ozone layer and blow it to smithereens should we come under attack.
So much for your magnificent S-400s Russkies. MAD is very much still on!
Pathetic, tis true, but what else can you do against a nation that is seeking your “unconditional surrender,” and believes it now has the means to achieve such a thing?
the blame-e says
Okay. So, the Russians have 6,000 nuclear warheads. But a successful nuclear exchange, one where you push back from the table and call it a day, only requires 600 nuclear warheads reach their targets. That’s assumes the United States has the capability of taking out 90-percent of all nuclear missiles launched against the United States. That still leaves 600 nuclear missiles that get through to their targets. That’s a 10-percent success rate.
I have some more bad news for you.
“. . . the abrogation by the Bush administration in 2002 of . . . the 1972 ABM Treaty, meant that the US was going to make every attempt to place the boot firmly on the Russian neck . . . and now it is the Russians who have . . . the boot firmly on [the United States’] neck.”
There are no necks. Necks are part of the old narrative.
Jim Giles says
This is now my favorite site and Larry is now my favorite pundit.
Obviously, there are many here who are very smart with lots of real world experience way beyond the average American. Y’all are certainly smarter than me.
One thing I have long not understood is how can a country as large as America with the kind of people who built our nation not be able to produce real leaders today who are needed for our survival?
Many would be leaders would say that the people are too stupid to lead now or basically all is lost and there is no hope. But that is not leadership.
I don’t understand why Americans don’t have a Hal Moore to follow and vote for:
And I would argue that we need tough leaders not politicians to follow and vote for.
the blame-e says
“But the people of the United States, thanks to inept and corrupt political leadership” believes a nuclear war is both winnable and survivable.
This crazed and insane government has arrived at this conclusion mainly from the inane assumption that even after Nakagaki and Hiroshima, even after all the irradiated dust and material thrown up into the atmosphere from all that nuclear testing, even with the chronic on-going crises of the Bimini Islands, the Hanford Nuclear Waste Site, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, and others, we are still here.
So, what’s a few 10-kiloton tactical nuclear warheads tried out on today’s “modern” battlefield but more harmless testing?
Given the United States current idea of foreign policy being almost identical to that of a hysterical schoolgirl, insisting that if pushed too far, nothing will satisfy her but an endless, messy, and costly divorce lasting forever, our insane government insists that: “Don’t push us. We’ve used the bomb before. We can use it again whenever we want.”
They will use it. FcKK it. At this point let ’em. The Earth will recover. Human beings will be gone. The price of everything, including taxes, are way too high already. What’s the point?
Larry P. Johnson says
Hmmm, Larry, you do not believe that 9/11 was an inside job?
And I see some unsubstantiated resistance from readers about Russian nuclear and defensive capabilities.
Let’s look at the US throwing all of the EU under the bus with the Nord Stream pipeline attack and apply that sort of betrayal to attacking oneself in a false flag attack on the World Trade Centre in order to support or initiate a new round of aggression on the world. I do not see much difference as one crime supports the idea a mindset in Washington of support for similar vastly criminal and amoral acts against humanity. Washington has no friends apparently worth caring about and one can also include the US citizen. This is a worrisome thing to know about a super power.
Larry Johnson says
No, I don’t.
Concur not an inside job. However… video sure looks like a missile hit The Pentagon.
The pictured engine after the attack is typically used in missiles. Secondly, given deviousness of Israelis and their cozy (but unknown at the time) relationship with Saudi Arabia, that’s where I might point the finger. Lastly, more confusion, I was vacationing in Salzburg, Austria and ended up in a conversation with a Brit who clearly knew something about Intel and targeting. He said the Brits were in on it. No idea… psyop? Who knows.
the blame-e says
9/11 was not an inside job. 9/11 was an outside job. “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.” Both require one main ingredient: that their audience be complete idiots, and completely stupid.
From the very beginning, the US government has relied upon PR to cloud people’s vision of what was right in front of them. “The United States would never do something like a 9/11. Would it?”
The United States would never destroy civilian infrastructure, like Nord Stream 1 and 2. That would be like declaring war on your own allies, Germany. Germany has no friends. Forget for one moment that Germany has been nothing but a ward of the state since 1945. Never mind that Germany, the EU, the British Empire (that will not die), and Europe have gone from being reliant upon cheap Russian natural gas (and coal, and oil, and minerals, and rare earths), to being dependent upon US LNG that is four (4x) times more expensive. No profit there. [sarcasm] The US would never be so devoid of . . . everything.
I visited Dealy Plaza in January of 2015. The day before there had been an ice storm. When I arrived to find the place packed with people. Languages were being spoken from all over the world. Women were weeping, looking at the alleged shooter’s nest on the sixth floor of the Texas Schoolbook Depository. For crying out loud, JFK had been dead for over 50-years. Where were all these people coming from?
They say when you pay your respects to someone (long) gone, you are actually paying respects to yourself.
When I say 9/11, the blowing up of Nord Stream 1 and 2, and the assassination were not inside jobs, they were outside jobs, it’s because those responsible (and we all know, deep down, who is responsible), have never come forward, have never been brought to justice. It’s like justice is a conspiracy theory. Either the United States isn’t brazen enough to write book titled “If I Did It” (not yet anyway), or they are like serial killers and just need to keep upping the ante by doubling down on the horror until they do something completely stupid.
Just remember, as stated by Ron White: “You can’t fix stupid.”
Alex Thrace says
I was in Dealy Plaza barely a year after the murder, then again in 1994. It was as you said, there was a class of young kids from Japan with their teacher holding a lecture on the grassy knoll.
There were people handing out leaflets, selling books, praying solemnly.
It was an unforgettable moment.
I know people who think George W. & Co lied about everything, absolutely everything, except 9/11, on that they told the purs lily white God’s honest truth, but on nothing else but that.
the blame-e says
I was only 10-years-old when JFK was assassinated. The only thing I knew was that I got out of school early. But I just saw how my parents took it, and my neighbors, and my grandparents. My father, a life-long Republican, was really upset in his own quiet way.
Even today my viewpoint is informed by a 10-year-old boy. The Zapruder Film is like something you might see in an episode of “The Outer Limits” or “The Twilight Zone.”
The whole day that I was at Dealey Plaza it was almost (I hate to use the word) holy. It was January. Freezing too cold. The place was packed. But the people. The people were gentle with each other. Regardless of what country they were from. Respect, too. Don’t see that much these days.
People are capable of being real human beings, of being decent with each other, if you give them a reason and the conditions to be so.
The people were gentle with their Texan hosts in return for incredible hospitality. It was really, truly something. The Texans deserve our thanks. They have stepped up to the plate, protected and honored the site (a full six city block radius) of one of this nation’s greatest tragedies.
And don’t say the Texans can’t cut to the quick. I went out to Elm Street and stood on the “X” that marked the spot where the “Kill Shot” was delivered to JFK’s head. Even there, nobody pushed anybody. Nobody prodded. But as soon as you stepped off the “X” the next person took your place.
Doing that was like giving the finger to those responsible.
It is my understanding that the US abandoned launch on warning policy, and now has an absorb the attack policy and then respond, which is suicidal. They call this a flexible response policy. In 1997, the Clinton Administration signed the policy PDD/NSC 60 Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance much of which is classified. I learned of this recently from author Joel Skousen. The Federation of American Scientists has a small brief on it on their webpage but no details. Can our government be that inept?
this is what really concerns me,
Published footage of the use of hypersonic missiles “Dagger” on targets in Ukraine:
The video of the March 18 attack shows that the missile entered the ground almost vertically. Its speed was several kilometers per second, and the total mass was about 1,5 tons. With such a huge kinetic energy, the Kinzhal literally went deep under the ground for tens of meters, broke through the concrete floor of the arsenal and exploded inside. The energy of the explosion caused the ammo at the facility to explode as well.
The Kinzhal missile then struck not just a warehouse, but one of the central storage bases for nuclear weapons, known as Object 711, or Ivano-Frankivsk-16. This object was built in 1955. The level of its protection was enough to withstand a nuclear bomb impact.
The facility was used to maintain nuclear warheads of strategic and tactical missiles of the Armed Forces of the USSR. It was completely destroyed by a single hypersonic missle with a conventional 500kg warhead.
the blame-e says
What I don’t understand is both Kherson and Kharkov contain huge Russian tank depots, tank storage facilities, tank repair complexes, and parts and supply yards. Why hasn’t the Ukraine along with Zelensky and Co., taken possession of all these supplies and material? Probably too late now. Now that Russia has retaken all this territory.
Look up images of abandoned Russian tanks on the internet.
the pair says
reminds me of a line from one of garth ennis’ punisher storylines: “you could fly an invisible B52 underground and still not get even close to moscow”.
in any case i’m once again glad i left DC. it’s a crap “city” to begin with but i assume glowing in the dark while my hair falls out would make it even more so. it’s also a shame that most of the vermin responsible for this nonsense don’t even live in the city; let’s hope the russians have the foresight to aim their rockets at fairfax and langley (i know you’re an ex-spook, but sorry – the entire CIA needs to be marched into an oven.)
In the USSR days – it was rumored their targeting included such nodes as Beverly Hills, Greenwich CT, etc to knock out the capitalist leadership class.
the blame-e says
Sounds like a cure for cancer.
Good old video by Putin trying to explain to journalists in 2016…
I think the better question is which side is the most capable of surviving a nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. I think both countries would come out of a nuclear war “defeated”. As long as China managed to stay out of such a conflict they would emerge as the world’s great power.
Russia is way better positioned to survive a nuclear war IMO. They have invested in civil defense and have had large scale exercises to practice.
The U.S. spends next to nothing on this. I guess there has been a multi million dollar purchase of anti radiation pills and a goofy video produced in NY. Not much else.
Russia’s vast size and where they have positioned their nuclear silos is another advantage.
Russia’s use of mobile ICBMs launchers is another advantage in the first strike and the subsequent strikes. I find the RS-28 Sarmat very worrisome and if you just take the time to read the Wiki page you’ll see why.
I can’t cover every aspect of such a war in one comment but I will say this…..
A nuclear war would mean the death of hundreds of millions very quickly and many millions more all over the world due to famine caused by food shortages. Anyone who suggests that this should be casually engaged in ought to be removed from any reasonable office immediately. These crazy Neocons must go and anyone who took their oath seriously must see to it.
If you are interested in surviving a nuclear war, I can’t recommend this book enough….
the blame-e says
Try watching the 1959 classic “On the Beach,” with Gregory Peck and Ava Gardner. It’s free on YouTube. You can buy it for ten bucks on Amazon. The point? Nuclear War is like the perfect trap, where death sneaks up on you like a kitten. And it is.
The way propaganda has captured everything, they could nuke Washington, DC while you were asleep and you would never know. With our fully owned mainstream media, how would you know?
They could nuke the city you live in and who would you tell about the bright flash in the sky? “The New York Times?” CNN? “The Washington Post?”
Alex Thrace says
Russia has Civil Defense , the US has “Continuity of Government”
Says a lot I think
Indeed it does. They don’t really care for the citizens in the U.S. nor do they really care about their opinions. Kind of a strange “democracy” don’t you think?
the blame-e says
The United States is not a democracy. The United States is a constitutional republic with some, SOME, democratic privileges that are easily revoked.
As of today, tell me which of those privileges still exist. Freedom of Speech? Freedom of Expression? A free press?
There are political prisoners in a democracy? That’s a question. I’m thinking specifically of Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, former President Donald Trump, Alex Jones, etc.
What price for freedom and democracy when the inalienable right to the redress of grievances that a people have against the state results in penury, paupery [sic], homelessness, harassment, the loss of everything, when only the rich can afford democracy? You will have a job, your health, a house, a home, a family, safety in your property and possessions, until somebody (the state) doesn’t like you, and then you will not. Is democracy some place where the people do not exist?
The endless wars and endless warmongering are all there to protect and save the world from something that does not exist. Unicorns. Think about it.
Does a democracy put up a fence around a nation’s capitol building (the People’s House) to keep the people out? And then hunt them down, throw them in jail, without hope of parole, to be tried before a court of clowns, and try them for treason and sedition simply for paying a visit to these entrenched, corrupt, evil, professional politicians who are but guests in the People’s House. Nice democracy you got there, pal.
The US was founded upon a hugely successful PR campaign, selling itself as “a beacon” of something that does not exist; the world’s last great hope (and delusion). We are now viewed as the “least dirty shirt in the hamper.” What will we be tomorrow?
Getting really tired of this crap, this “democracy.”
“a hugely successful PR campaign”
Like the producers you appear to be of limited acumen in areas of “public relations” including evaluation, and the current spread of “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident”.
“What will we be tomorrow?”
Not yesterday, although some will likely believe that it remains yesterday, through the efforts of some who hope to turn back time to a time which never was, but continues for some in possible emulation of one of the observations of Mr. Diamond:
I saw her face
Now I’m a believer
Not a trace
Of doubt in my mind.
I’m in love
I’m a believer
I couldn’t leave her
If I tried.
It is my belief that the decision makers in the West believe they can ride out a nuclear war in the comfort of their massive underground bases. It’s the only thing that makes sense. These guys aren’t that smart but then they aren’t THAT stupid. To them, it’s a win-win. Get rid of the Rooskies and the useless eaters once and for all.
They would need quite a lot of “useless eaters” (although not all of them by any means) to keep them in the lifestyle to which they’ve become accustomed, along with a lot of the global supply chain, which would be disrupted. Of course, in their arrogance, they might not realise that.
Hi all, posting this on a few websites- hoping that while we intellectualize all of these… we also realize that its an absolute crazy and really tragic situation in UKR.
Just hope that this little post sows some seeds of peace and serenity.
I felt a distinct sadness yesterday evening at the inevitable escalation of the matter and the many human lives that are already lost and will be lost on both sides…
I also wondered about what sort of story RUS-UKR will tell in history textbooks of this chapter to the next generation. If RUS will truly end up victorious-
Will RUS demonize the UKR troops who died in the war?
Will RUS divide UKR troops who were brainwashed and the Banderites?
Will RUS treasure the Slavic brotherhood and the rich fields of wheat, grain and industry inherited- by the folly of UKR’s own death? Will RUS gloat at the misfortune of UKR?
Will RUS treat UKR people as 2nd class citizens in their homeland? Will RUS help the many widowed UKR women and maimed UKR people?
Can both RUS people and UKR people accept that this chapter is a tragic, tragic mistake and move on together?
I don’t know.
I just hope the blood of slain RUS people and UKR people not become fertilizers of hate, anger, distrust, arrogance, hubris, contempt, complacency…. this becomes open to manipulation again…
I hope memorials will be built honoring lives lost on both sides – for the blood shed to nurture peace and harmony…
Like the Immortal Regiment’s did.
I can only hope.
Alex Thrace says
It is sad and actually criminal that it got this far or even started at all but anyone with half a lick of sense can understand RUS’s position on this.
The Ukrainians could have had a prosperous and peaceful state had they aligned with Russia, instead the oligarchs and the West strip mined the wealth and empovershed the people.
The loss of life is heartbreaking in that it was so unnecessary.
Amen. Amitabha. Insha Allah.
These words are lost on the men in power in the West.
A Plumber in the West has nothing against the Electrician in the East.
Somehow, the people that they believe in got them to hate each other – without them even meeting each other.
Larry focused on nuclear weapons, I don’t know how he forgot that the United States has the power of combined arms in one weapon, weapon with beauty and sex appeal, that could be tested in Ukraine. Imagine putting Admiral Levine on the front line, it is certain that you would see soldiers from Russia, DPR, LPR, Wagner group and especially Chechens, retreating, better speaking, running scared. The end of the War.
Michael Creighton says
This history of Russian government persecution of Polish and Russian Catholics may be of interest. This was written before the Russian revolution. It is clear the Tsar’s were judged by God and the Russian nation punished by it’s subjugation under the Jewish communist regime for their infidelity to Christ and his one true church.
I know it’s remotely related but I am not sure how to communicate out this way
What an absurd article! First, you’re acting and talking like you know all the defense secrets that America has at its disposal, which you don’t, and same goes for Russia. That simple fact alone makes it clear that you are basing your opinion solely on the side you’re taking in this matter, rather than dealing with the facts, many of which we don’t know.
The USA had computers since the 60s and has been way ahead of the curve for a long time. Why would the USA with all its military might show its enemies all its cards? The USA along with Russia and every other military powerful nation has their own secrets that give them an advantage in a war situation.
The truth is, whatever America is revealing right now, in terms of their military might, is 20 years behind, at least, to what they are truly capable of, and may even be much farther ahead than we realize.
Navy’s across the world are seeing an uptick in unidentified spacecraft, which many believe now are top-secret military projects conducted by the USA, and these and ufos maneuver in ways thought impossible. Sure, Russia could be behind these ufos, and invented or discovered the technology, but it’s clear someone has acquired some very advance technology, unless they are actual aliens. This isn’t crazy talk as both the Russians and American military’s have acknowledged these ufos exist and have provided video evidence.
There is so much at play that to make such certain comments is absurd. What you’re doing, which I appreciate hearing the other side, is literally no different than western propaganda, and you said you used your skills to help the USA overthrow Iran, then how do we know you’re not doing that now?
> Why would the USA with all its military might show its enemies all its cards?
(which replaced common diplomacy since the 90’s)
Even if there is a super-secret Wunderwaffe, let be it.
I am more afraid about a dirty bomb going up in the Kherson region in the next days/weeks, executed to fulfill the Biden prophecy “Russia as a Pariah”.
I don’t think UFO’s would make a difference when nuclear exchange ensues after the following direct attack by NATO on Russia.
” a dirty bomb going up in the Kherson region ”
Don’t worry, current bets include blowing up a dam, since blowing up a nuclear reactor is seen by some as a bridge too far, and anyway most if not all the population has been evacuated just in case the opponents need alternative martyrs like before, since some think books, including copybooks, are things to be played with.
“What an absurd article!”
The article was likely absurd because that was its design/register as a function of its purpose, which was likely catalysation of response, whilst offering a coathanger upon which responses could be draped, since that is one of the purposes of blogs, although some are of the illusion that a blog is an agora – If you meet Heraclitus he will remind you that “You can’t enter the same river twice” and hence “time and tide wait for no man” even after you drink hemlock – agoras have been “developed” into fish markets.
“Countering Geran-2 requires NATO to provide Ukraine with their most advanced anti-air systems, while revealing little about other Russian offensive capabilities.”
Geran-2 is a backward technology with a few modern twists like the pyrotechnic launch . It is a slow prop plane loaded with explosives where the kamikaze pilot was replaced by a navigation system. But it is slow moving, noisy and visible to radar.
The reason that it is effective, is that the traditional air defenses against these technologies were abandoned as obsolete, as they were ineffective against jets. The antiaircraft cannons (Like the 90mm M2) with proximity fuse ammo were effective against Japanese swarms of kamikaze planes. And would also be effective be for Gerans.
You do not have to spend a 100kUSD Stinger or a BUK-M1 or a Patriot-Pak 3 to aim at a less than 20 kUSD drone. NATO has to provide “old” air defenses to counter the Gerans
China is the senior partner in the China-Russian alliance and no doubt has already told Putin and top Russian government officials that it will not give its approval for Russia to use even one tactical nuke on Ukraine. Just like Austria-Hungary needed Germany’s approval to invade Serbia in 1914 (which it received), so too does Russia need China’s approval to take the drastic action of using any sort of nuke on Ukraine. China knows full well that if Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine, then any country that continues to do business with Russia after such an event will face the strictest economic sanctions. China cannot afford to lose the business of its top customers–the US, Japan, Europe, South Korea, which is what would happen if it continued to purchase Russian oil and natural gas after Russia used a nuke on Ukraine. Conversely, Russia cannot afford to lose its top customer of oil and natural gas–China– which would happen if China decided to keep its top customers by going along with the economic sanctions that most of the world imposes on those countries who continue to do business with Russia after Russia used a nuke on Ukraine. In short, China is calling the shots in regard to whether or not Russia will use a nuke on Ukraine–and China will not approve such a use.
How are China the senior partner? Russia doesn’t need China re Ukraine and China needs Russia as much as Russia needs China as a bulwark against US not to mention cheap oil and gas.
Curt Nichols says
Exactly. The Chinese are frankly not necessary. They were cheap labor that assembled parts made elsewhere. You cannot sanction Russia that makes 40% of everything the world needs. China? You just move the sweatshop to another Third World shithole. If Russia dies, China dies even faster. China with its demographic time bomb is not going to survive the decade. And why would Russia give a shit? China has not supported them. Russia is defeating the entire Western war machine all on its own.
Dan Farrand says
It’s “show me” time for the Russian Army. The commanding general for the Russias Ukraine operations to said: “we may be facing difficult decisions” in reference to defense of Kherson. This is followed by announcement of a full evacuation of civilians from Kherson. This may or may not be true – who knows.
In war, not every decision is made for purely military reasons. War serves political goals. A Russian retreat from Kherson AND the west bank of the Dnieper would be a Military and Political disaster.
All the talk of Russian capabilities and weapons would amount to nothing. There would be no spinning it. It would clearly show something fundamentally flawed in the Russian Military and Russian Political leadership.
My own opinion, of course. But at this point, as regards Russian Military capacity and ability, it’s “Show Me”.
If the new Generals first action after being given command and 300k men is to abandon the west bank, then one is going to have to concede that publications like the Telegraph and CNN are onto something and the Russian Army is less than it’s cracked up to be.
just saying says
Saying that “Telegraph and CNN are onto something” is the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while.
Companies with a long history go bankrupt in 🇩🇪:
125 years ago:the construction company Wolff Hoch und Ingenieurbau goes bankrupt.
130th anniversary: Confectionery manufacturer Bodeta goes bankrupt.
156 years since its foundation: The automotive supplier Borgers is insolvent.
k. talaat says
In 2001, Russia wasn’t only raped but humiliated by the US. When the US lead by Bully Bush, tore up the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and flipped Putin, Putin knew what must be done. The Russians rejected outer space, reentry vehicle and uter space lazers, or Star Wars. Instead they worked on what they have now. A mong others, a nuclear powered missile, capable of hypersonic speeds that can loiter indefinitely, while detecting and avoiding radar with optional warheads. The possibility of an EMP is also present with such vehicles, launched from a sub 200 miles, taking a minute to reach M10 might take 2 minutes to reach the coast of the US.
Now here is my question to the perfumed princes of the Pentagon: straight up, can you deal with that and why would you want to?? And if not, then stop the saber rattling and negotiate after you banished for life all the worthless Neocons.
“In 2001, Russia wasn’t only raped but humiliated by the US.”
Trying to encourage others that you are exceptional instead of just another “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident” ?
” The Russians rejected outer space, reentry vehicle and uter space lazers, or Star Wars. Instead they worked on what they have now.
What can you expect from people who gave cosmonauts pencils?
k. talaat says
Is your comment a riddle?
“Is your comment a riddle?”
Apparently to you, but then blogs were never agoras and audiences never one.
However your “riddle” is a progression on “word salad” whilst remaining linear. thereby facilitating the perception of some that everything is a riddle in circumstances where both the numerator and the denominator is two.
“…people who gave cosmonauts pencils?”
Once upon a time “The United States of America” had an “expensive” research project to create ball-point pens that astronauts could use in space, whilst the “Soviet Union” and The Russian Federation gave/gives cosmonauts pencils.
Words are catalysts of connotations whilst connotations vary according to receptor.
Consequently the connotations that some derive from the datastream which you refer to as “your comment”, are the design and manufacturing facilities of “The West” given that “The West” is a varying continuum in almost spheres such as planet earth, and hence linear “extrapolations/progressions” on assumptions “gang aft agley” to quote Mr. Burns, even if you manage to catch up with them, where the assumptions include but are not limited to ““In 2001, Russia wasn’t only raped but humiliated by the US.”.
Others tend to connotate such datastreams as, “The West” are attempting to make revolutions around fixed points – going round in circles -, whilst others may connote that as revolutions are attempts to turn back or advance time since stasis is never an option, whilst some linguists may tend to the view that communication is a salad of many components to aid digestion, whilst those who hold these truths to be self-evident are subjected to a limited diet of connotations as a function of their salads.
That is not all there is of course since lateral process is a constant.
k. talaat says
What a wind bag? You suffer from an inferiority complex.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/mad-is-dead I just posted Larry’ s article on Substack with commentary and analysis. I used to think M.A.D. was simply impractical and impracticable. He has convinced me otherwise.
” I used to think M.A.D. was simply impractical and impracticable. He has convinced me otherwise.”
M.A.D. is useful for would-like-to-be-bullies to delay taking their coats off – as is waiting for Godot.
Of course Mr. Johnson, Presidential Decree 355 of 3rd June 2022 is likely not only but also.
in furtherance of from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs, which may have been one of the purposes of “FORGET M.A.D., CAN RUSSIA DEFEAT THE UNITED STATES IN A NUCLEAR WAR?” – no need to shout but don’t expect blinis.
Christophe DOUTE says
A very interesting article, on a very important subject. I discovered Larry’s blog last week or the week before last, thanks to a reference on Moonofalabama or The Saker blog, and I’m glad of it. Serious analysis, quite objective. Speaks to us like one speaks to intelligent persons.
(Just as an aside, and although this is not the subject of this blog, I observe that Larry speaks quite freely of all sorts of matters, but it appears from this particular article that questioning the 9/11 myth, i.e. the official narrative of that event, is off-limits to a former CIA officer. I suppose that is made clear to CIA officers when they are told what they may talk about and what they may not. Maybe I’m just imagining it and maybe it’s a self-imposed limitation. In any case, it’s not surprising and we’ll accept that).
Larry Johnson says
Yes, you are imagining. I am familiar with the various “theories” surrounding the 9-11 attacks. I prefer to deal with the facts. FACT ONE–Four planes were hijacked, two hit the World Trade Center Towers, one hit the Pentagon and one crashed in Pennsylvania.
FACT TWO–The FBI and the CIA did not share intel with each other. CIA in particular blocked sharing any intel with the FBI about the presence of the hijackers in the USA. I have a friend who was denied access to that intel.
FACT THREE–The Bush Administration ignored the warnings about an impending attack.
FACT FOUR–The hijackers of the four planes were connected to Al Qaeda.
If you had followed my writings over the years I have frequently taken on both the CIA and the FBI. Hope this clarifies my position.
I didn’t have time to read every preceding comment, so I’m sorry if someone else already mentioned this.
But why on Earth would Bush/Cheney have abandoned the ABM treaty – with Russia no longer an enemy (indeed struggling, in 2001, to maintain its territorial integrity) – if not to enable US first-strike capability?
Let’s not forget, that same crew then installed missile ‘defense’ bases in Eastern Europe, ostensibly to ward off a nonexistent missile threat from Iran.
Thanks to Robert Gates, we know Cheney was committed to dismembering Russia AFTER the breakup of the USSR. What better way to enable that than threatening a nuclear first strike, enabled by impenetrable US ABM defenses?
Larry Johnson says
Thanks. Underestimating Russia has been part of the American delusion.
“Underestimating Russia has been part of the American delusion.”
And the interpretation/translation conflation its facilitation.
“In 2001, Russia wasn’t only raped but humiliated by the US.”
Is it possible given our current American realities and constraints we attempt to turn delusional flailing into limited and positive gains for our own people?
I mean re-industrialization, absolutely non-negotiable now.
It is time our people gained for their sacrifices.
I mean we become our own Bismarck’s and make this adventure our own Franco-Prussian War, and as Empire doesn’t suit us and precludes Constitutional government it doesn’t matter if we end up France or Prussia.
Let us make it 1870, not 1914.
In particular a nuclear 1914.
If this course is followed then one has to be in to have a real vote, one must be in to win.
I’ve wagered my skin before, we warred for the petrodollar.
Let us then have a reshoring war. I’ll wager my skin again.
As our interests are not in Eastern Europe or Western Pacific the restoration of sanity should not be such a long journey.
I’m encouraged that some tech elites at least care about the country and are serious enough to become very close to DOD, I mean Thiel, Musk, Bezos and Katherine Boyle [tech venture capital].
The article below shows us that at least some elites care about America still, if they have formed some alliance with DOD that is serious. Perhaps to some there is more to life than money, indeed there is country, even at a price.
The price indeed the only possible move by any military including DOD is known.
If we’re going to pay it and the decision has been made – it has and we don’t get a NO – then we must do our best for our country that can be done, can – not should.
Trump was the peace President and like Nixon before him done in by the IC [FBI, CIA].
Cold hard reality with tangible gains for our land is better than airy words.
k. talaat says
“…useful for would-like-to-be-bullies to delay taking their coats off… WRONG?
Now we can tell how young, uneducated and inexperienced you are. Your reference to bullies is a telling projection.
The CIA “warned”about the bin laden attack the same way they warned that RUssia would blow up their own pipeline and artillery shell their own nuclear power plant in their control.
Warning=What I’m gonna do