Only a month or so ago the Western propaganda machine was confident that Ukraine was winning. But there’s been a change. Consider Polish President Duda’s warning yesterday – “They (Russia) are still very strong and we are afraid they are preparing for a new offensive on a few months”. In September, he was confident that “Russia had demonstrated its weakness”. What’s changed? I would guess that Wagner’s capture of Soledar and the situation around Bakhmut has dented the feel-good propaganda, but who knows – the West’s rulers live in a “tongue-bath of pleasing illusion” designed to keep reality out.
Whatever the reason, the breezy confidence of Russian failure is ebbing. (OK – Chomiak’s grand-daughter still believes.) Ukrainian officials say their casualties are “huge, indigestible“. Big war party players say time is not on Ukraine’s side. Even CNN says “time is also fast ebbing” and there may be a “ferocious new offensive” from Russia. Something must be done! And that something is – wait for it!!! Ta dah!! More weapons!! (You were expecting these clods to have a new idea?). A year ago Ukraine had a huge armory and NATO has sent Ukraine plenty since. Here’s a list – 410 MBTs, 300 IFVs, 700 guns, 95 MLRS.
Not enough. Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine Army 1, most of NATO-supplied Ukraine Army 2. Time for NATO-supplied Ukraine Army 3.
But the West’s stockpiles are empty says Borrell, Stoltenberg, Del Toro. “We essentially used the equivalent of 13 years of Stinger production and 5 years of Javelin production“. And they won’t be refilled any time soon. Here is an estimate of how long it will take America to replace munitions and weapons sent to Ukraine – HIMARS in five years, everything else longer. Probably on the optimistic side – many single-supplier bottlenecks. “We haven’t got this figured out just yet“. No you haven’t. And that’s the USA which has a gigantic arms industry, In Europe – or Germany anyway – it seems that nothing they have actually works.
No more flab to send, time to cut into NATO’s muscle.
The first offerings for Ukraine Army 3 are decades-old vehicles – obsolescent yes, but because their replacements don’t exist or are duds, they’re actually muscle – even if a bit wrinkly. America kicked off this latest round by saying it would send about 50 Bradley IFVs. France is sending some AMX-10 RCs and Germany promises about 40 Marder IFVs.
But non-wrinkly muscle is being sent too. Today we learned that Denmark will send 19 Caesar SPGs to Ukraine. That’s all they have. Britain is sending about 30 AS 90s – a quarter of its holdings. The US has broken into emergency stocks of 155mm ammunition stored in Israel (Syrians, Iraqis, Palestinians – are you listening?)
Here’s the rest of Duda’s statement “it was crucial to provide additional support to Kyiv with modern tanks and missiles.” Tanks are the new wonderwaffe that will get General Steiner to Moscow. (A year ago Ukraine had hundreds and hundreds of Soviet-era MBTs and has received another 400 Soviet-era tanks. Where have they gone?) London was the first to kick it off with the announcement that it would send 14 (14!) Challenger 2s (about 6% of its holdings) – “a gap in our inventory” says Britain’s top soldier. That’s muscle. Will German Leopards go? At the moment Germany says no and that it won’t permit other countries to sent theirs and the US is saying it won’t send its Abrams tanks. But we’ll see – tomorrow’s meeting at Ramstein will tell us more.
Real students of war know that “professionals talk logistics” and Brian Berletic explains here the logistical problems of all these different tanks. In all likelihood, they will be single use – as soon as something breaks or they run out of ammunition, they will be abandoned. Tanks won’t do it.
Here’s what the Western MSM hasn’t told you. The Russian Armed Forces as such haven’t been much involved so far. Airborne at the beginning, some fast air and rotary wing, a lot of artillery throughout. But the big fighting has been done by the LDPR militias everywhere, Wagner at Bakhmut defense complex, Chechens in Mariupol. The big shoe hasn’t dropped.
The Russian Armed Forces proper have 200,000 to 500,000 troops armed trained and equipped (lots of tanks – the latest T-90s are showing up). Will they complacently sit there watching Ukraine and NATO “demilitarize” themselves? Or is a “big arrow” offensive coming? It’s Moscow’s choice.
The optimist can hope that the announcements of wonderwaffe that haven’t actually got to Ukraine are the exculpation that “we did everything we could” before the lift-off from Kabul Airport West.
The pessimist can fear that NATO, when it finally gets to the bottom of the barrel and has cut its arms and legs off, will use the last weapon it has.
Me, I’m off to the liquor store – too old to make the cut.
Enjoyed this post and your humor. Also, watched Brian’s and SmoothieX12 videos. Thanks to you all.
I’ve a question, do your resources mention any leaks regarding UNSC Arria format Russia called for that took place 1/17? Seems mums the word all around, next we read of arrest of a nameless US citizen for espionage with Bioweapon underpinnings, missile defense systems on roofs in Moscow, WEF chatting crazy stuff, Macron double speak {now wants Russia… again… to be friends as he sends weapons), the EU tribunal vote… they need legal cover to steal $$ and assets (not even mentioned or splashed all across mainstream) .
Guess feeling moment of truth has arrived. Assuming UNSC meeting did take place (which Russia UN ambassador stated would be “uncomfortable for the West”, )exposed to all nations, might explain Macron, might explain German reluctance.
Scholz probably knows that his Leopards are just as lame as the Pumas and barely capable of hobbling to the front, let alone back.
But shhhh, it’s very hush hush.
Scholz knows that the ONLY reason Leos are demanded in Ukraine is to involve Germany in war with Russia so Poland, UK, US can destroy Germany forever.
There is no other purpose.
German voters created with 18 directly elected and 116 “List” votes a Green Party which is kingmaker so CDU and SPD can each only form coalition with War Party Greens
I have always trusted German elections as far as I can throw my old 150kg Miele washing machine.
We will put one in the Volgograd Panorama Museum next to the Tiger tank.
Being more serious, I’m now very worried with all this news about Crimea.
Kind wishes to everyone 🙂
I’ve been to the war museum in St. Pete in better times. Was impressed with how the kiddies enjoyed playing on all the war machines outside. Around the corner, behind a fence nestled away in a back lot was a decommissioned (I assume) Topol M. I had it on my phone for a good while until I thought better of it, not wanting to be tagged a spy by one side or the other, and deleted it.
Such a waste this war is. I blame the neocons. True warmongers they are. Soon everyone will, I think.
Speaking of Macron, pledging more weapons/money to Ukraine when his own workers are on strike leading 1 million people to protest the raise of the retirement age. The EU’s megalomaniacal elite will pay dearly for abusing their own people to weaponize Zelensky’s Nazi Junta.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/business/france-strikes-retirement-age-protest/index.html
And one can always rely on Poland for “creativity.” Poland’s general wants to mobilize Ukrainian refugees. Just “a brilliant cut of the expenses Poland/USA incur hosting Ukrainian refugees in Poland while providing more fodder in Ukraine. Frankly, I was waiting for something like that, when the West would grab Ukrainian men who escaped and deport them to Ukraine, probably in chains to fight for “democracy” but in fact to just die so there won’t be no Ukrainian men left to object to Poland’s land grab of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivks, etc.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570166-poland-general-mobilize-ukrainian-refugees/
The NYT writes as if tanks and IFVs are going to be gamechangers. That, in their article about the alleged Russian missile strike on a residential building in Dnipro which was destroyed when the Ukrianians tried to shoot down a cruise missile (not a KH22) with an S300. Responding to the Evil Russkies, the Wonderful West will supply “new equipment” write Specie and Tung. Only, as this Smith makes clear this this is really NEW OLD Equipment. 14 Challenger 2s too heavy for Ukrainian roads and bridges and vulnerable to air strikes, ATGMs….. The Ukrainians have lost to date about 7000 tanks and armoured vehicles. As for the Bradley IFV, it is obsolete. In no way competitive with the newest BMP3 (upgraded again in September 2022) That BMP3 BTW can fire 8 ATGMs in 4 minutes and kill a Challenger from 4 km.
Read here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-nyt-shame
Considering the ammount of BMP-1s (and other oldtimers) used so far, I would not call Bradley obsolete.
Regular BMP-3 fires 100mm missiles out of it’s gun. They have lower penetration than bigger missiles (like Kornet or Ataka), and are not suitable for engaging modern tanks frontally.
Maybe the AI could operate the Wunderwaffen?
The rainbow youth out to burn it all down are flooding the recruiting offices with grit and determination. (honk honk!)
The best and brightest won’t ever look into old tactics that still work or think that everyone does WAR like they do.
LJ & HS
Rumors about new escalation from NATO (read:US) involving NATO enforced No Fly Zone abuzz on social media circles.
obviously this wont work but some saw this as last provocation by NATO to make russia declare open war against them
what is your take / view on this issue ?
No fly zone. Well you can “impose it” “declare it” but making it actually happen will be a little icky.
Yes! Kudos!
First, Russia beat NATO to the “no fly zone”. Second, no-one “declares war” anymore, so last century. Russia (and US/NATO) knows it’s fighting NATO. Increasingly, Wagner Group’s picking up radio chatter mostly in Polish, English, German. Russia IS at war with NATO…and winning.
with what planes? also ukrops ad is just as likely to shoot down western planes as russian ones.
I suspect that NATO knows full well that with S-400/500’s any air war they’d muster would turn into a turkey shoot.
This is either what we see is what we got and spastic madness….and it ends soon,
or perchance Ukraine all of it is a Reconnaissance in Force, that Ukraine isn’t the goal of course but Moscow. Douglas Macgregor says he was told this by the Administration in DC in 1997.
The Russians shoe has not dropped, true, we haven’t really put our boots on.
If the PTB Strategic Map includes Moscow and Beijing [only Moscow is really in our way] then Ukraine is at the Operational Level, and this is a reconnaissance in force.
If our US and NATO air and ground forces especially air committed to war then Russia is in a different war and the odds change dramatically. The Russians are prudent to hold back, for Ukraine is of no interest to the West. Ukraine is of existential interest to Russia.
Let us understand that we live in a world with nuclear weapons, and Super-Fuzed Trident SLBMs give us first strike capability against Russia’s primary nuclear arm of land based missile silos. This may be more temptation than DC – which bears no risk – can withstand.
Super-Fuzed Trident SLBMs give us first strike capability against Russia’s primary nuclear arm of land based missile silos.
Good God. What comic book have you been reading? Ever hear of a nuclear triad? It’s all the rage among the nuclear big guys on the block.
Read about Russia’s nuke-armed subs. There’s nothing in the US arsenal that can intercept the hypersonic Avangard nuke missile. Then there’s the RS-28 Sarmat for which there’s no counter in the entire NATO.
You’re living in a fantasy world.
I worked at various army depot’s in the US and one in Alabama repaired Abrams, artillary and other various tanks etc. Some of of the items came from Japan and even Saudi Arabia because they did not have what it takes to repair these specialty items. The various artillary pieces that came back from Iraq required precision machinist and took a lot of hours to repair. The US military tags every barrel with info of how many rounds went through that barrel and how more could be fired yet till it came to end of life. It is not as many as you think. End of life for some were less than 1500 rounds. Can you believe the Ukranians are repairing any M777 pieces not me. The Russians seem to be getting them first. I remember some of my friends who were on some of the limited motorized pieces of artillary in Vietnam. They said they always had a new barrel strapped to the piece and went through barrels quickly. The equipment Ukraine is getting is all for show, to extend the battle field timeline while they decide each day what to do in the chaos. That equipment has a shorter shelf life than it takes to smoke a cigarette. Oh if you could see the not hundreds but thousands of pieces of equipment on some of these military depots you would realize what junk they are sending to Ukraine just for show. Just follow the money.
“Tanks are the new wonderwaffe that will get General Steiner to Moscow.”
Good one.
“I’m … too old to make the cut.”
Yeah, me too. Unfortunate as well, because even at my age, that 10 to 1 mine shaft ratio, or roughly the same killed to killed ratio as what’s playing out on the battlefields of Ukraine, sure sounds interesting.
“The Russian Armed Forces as such haven’t been much involved so far.”
No they haven’t, but hey, who needs em, when little ole Wagner can win this war to the existential death against the Mighty Hegemon of the West, all by themselves.
But winning a war is one thing, de-Nazifying and demilitarizing a country the size of Texas is quite another.
Everything is coming down to Kiev, that’s my prediction, and I am on record as of Day 1 of this SMO, that this Ukraine regime will attempt, in time honored Nazi fashion, to go out with a Death Ride.
Now whether the Russian army will allow this or not is another matter. I am also on record, as May 20 of last year with fall of Mariupol, after Azov failed to fullfil their pledge to go out with fiery Death Ride of their own, that perhaps the best way to prevent these type of activities is to eliminate all the enemy’s vehicles, make them footbound, then surround them, and proceed to starve them into submission.
Is the Russian General Staff going to go with my extemly conservation suggestion, and surround Kiev, then lock it up nice and tight and wait for the enemy to scream uncle (!) or are they going to get to get fancy, and launch multiple offensives?
They can do either, of course, and win going away, so maybe this is coming down to a coin between Putin and General Staff. Heads we win with a siege, tails we win with a blitzkreig … or three.
Germany is a curious place. I was hearing the news in order to practice the language by listening, and the news report about sending tanks to Ukraine, which will provoke the death of humans, was much much shorter than the green week special about solving pig depression problems.. And even if pigs get depressed, which sounds pretty dumb, why shouldn’t` they be, since they are going to be slaughtered anyway?
If they’d introduced into Dr. Strangelove characters even vaguely resembling the freaks in Washington and Brussels who rule us today, the movie would have flopped. No one back then would have ever believed possible the nightmare we’re currently living through.
I think the usg wants to create what’s now called in newspeak a “buffer zone” in Ukraine.
Poland will monitor it and will receive west Ukraine as payment. Then work their way west to truly subjugate all of Europe as EU will have US nukes in their bedrooms and no weapons left. Or if they still can’t find any adults in the USG/military establishment they’ll just use tactical nukes and hope they can get away it.
America is all about gambling/buisness,deceit, murder and adultery not necessarily in that order and they don’t hide it-they’re “exceptional”
Good update, the nitwits don’t know when to tap out. Earlier today I read this article & it mentioned the ammo in Israel which I had never heard of…Then, Larry mentions it too.
Geez. They sure seem bound & determined to destroy the US & leave us unable to defend ourselves.
“Biden regime now tapping secret ammo supply depot in Israel to continue supplying Ukraine”
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-01-19-biden-regime-tapping-secret-ammo-supply-israel.html
From the article:
“…“The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials say,” the Times reports. “The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies.”…”
bound & determined to destroy the US & leave us unable to defend ourselves.
Against who or what, pray tell?
I.always thought Obama wanted a less global US to focus on raising living standards and status of blacks in USA.
A major military butt kicking would help.
Ukrainian war started in 2014. Guess who was the president to blame.
Israel ain’t NATO.
Couple of hypersonic missiles would delete any stockpiles in a flash.
The Seven Day war revisited in Seven Hours : payback is a bitch.
If this all spins out of control the Uki helicopter “tragedy,” will reappear here there and everywhere . Iran might just grab the chance to unleash every missile it has, all a once….. it’s also called crusty bagels.
Remember what Putin said, “no Russia no world.” Only Line he’s got is radioactive, rainbow Admirals don’t get it; yet.
Not to worry, the super rich and super greedy, will not allow his to happen. Greed before honour, profits before prophets. (You know the rest!)
“vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel”
“vast but little-known” They keep saying this, but it’s not accurate. Not quite false, but very inaccurate.
More accurate would be formerly well-known but long forgotten “stockpile of American ammunition in Israel”
There was no secret about it when it was decided to “pre-position” ammo stocks in Israel. Formally acknowledged as explicitly dual purpose: Israel could draw on them if attacked (thus avoiding the need for an emergency resupply airlift as in the 73 October War), they would also be available to US forces for use in any ME crisis.
They just fell off everybody’s radar screen and got forgotten. But never a secret.
Of course, the kids never knew it.
Sorry, I gapped again, not written by Larry but by Helmholtz Smith. Posted by Larry though, thank you!
Throw every client’s weapons away into a bottomless pit, no worries, the doodle dandies are $31trillion of debt into that bottomless pit – Need bright shiny new weapons my dears, let us sell you $31trillion worth, business is business & we’re the boss
Which is all well and good, but Uncle Sam throwing money at the weapons dealers isn’t actually going to lead to “bright shiny new weapons” if the MIC doesn’t actually have the ability to ramp up production.
Which, apparently, it can’t.
Lackey’s are being instructed to give away their weapons to Ukraine.
Washington then promises to sell them “bright shiny new” stuff to replace it.
Washington: It’ll cost ya’. Big time.
Lackey: Well, OK, I suppose. Here’s the money.
Lackey: When can we expect that new gear?
Washington: What?
Central bank printed, fiat money, manipulated interest rates, and the massive government debt it enables have made the West believe in all kinds of fantasies. Green energy is cheap, everything can be imported from China, boys can be girls, and the world trembles before NATO.
Awesome comment!
We are indeed the Empire of Lies.
“What do you do with a drunken sailor, early in the morning?”
Steal his wallet, from what I’ve heard.
The pessimist can fear that NATO, when it finally gets to the bottom of the barrel and has cut its arms and legs off, will use the last weapon it has.
That’s not pessimism. Considering the loony tunes running Buffalo Bill’s Wild West Show, it’s no doubt already in the back of their minds.
Mercouris is beside himself with the absurdity of the no exit dilemma they’ve created. Either it’s NATO troops or tactical nukes in the offing. With this bizarre bunch of wanna be masters of the universe, it might even be both.
https://youtu.be/ya0eWw3rvak?t=90 Worth a listen.
I used to think that Russia has to do a “big arrow” offensive. Watching what is happening now – that a mix of militias, volunteers and a private contractor have decimated the VSU, taken territory and destroyed NATO equipment without much of RFA involvement (except artillery/tanks/aircraft) – I think Russia will continue doing what it has been doing and bring this confrontation to its end without expending too much effort. RF is also digging in – one has to ask – for what? Plan B in case crazy people in NATO decide to do something stupid?
At the same time – the longer this lasts and the longer we see that the combined sanctions and armament shipments do not work – the more the collective West will be publicly humiliated. It has already lost plenty in the eyes of the non-western world – exposed as a fraud, violated a bunch of international and its own laws (seizing private property and currency reserves), showed itself as a terrorist entity (Nordstream), threatened whole continents (the new sanctions law in USA targeting Africa), the list goes on and on and keeps growing with every new sanction and weapons shipment. With every step – more failure and more humiliation. Poll after poll in the developing world shows that most ordinary people see this too, not just their military/security experts. I wonder what phone conversations look these days between Blinken and non-western counterparts. Do people tell “Tony” to f-off openly or do they snicker in the background while he is issuing empty threats?
The only question is – will the crazy people in Washington/London/Brussels be able to refrain themselves from betting it / losing it all (and pressing the button) when they get to the point of having nothing else to send and no more sanctions to impose? That’s the million $$$ question. I suppose you can always try and throw the Poles at the Russian bayonets but I think if this were tried – Polish government would quickly find out that most Poles are not interested in dying.
Domestically EU/USA/UK are all nearing a reckoning in the political, social and the economic sense. You can only lie so much while Ukraine keeps losing territory and people steadily – as your population is seeing more and more bad things happening (crime, illegal immigration, stock market down, housing bubble bursting…) while tens of billions is spent on some faraway proxy war. Someone said the other day that 100 billion dollars would buy half a million homeless people a 200,000 dollar house. The left in USA cares so much about the homeless – how soon before the left gets exposed as a fraud as well? You cannot measure “erosion of trust in the system” until said erosion is obvious and too late to remedy.
The way I see it – plan B is DC is some kind of a game whose beginning we maybe saw with the downing of the helicopter a few days ago. The question is – to what end has this been done? Removing people in the know and replacing them with someone who can sign on the dotted line whatever RF offers, despite NATO’s desire to continue the support? (as in the famous “Ukraine has to decide when to negotiate and for what” line)? If this were to happen – it would be a graceful exit for NATO – “we wanted to fight on but Ukr, being so independent, decided to stop”. Problem is – who is stupid enough to be the sacrificial lamb in Kiev? Which makes me think, the only other option the West has left is not good for the planet….
” … how soon before the left gets exposed as a fraud as well?”
Never. As the Military Industrial Complex needs an enemy, so does the neo-liberal globalist complex inside the Beltway need to keep alive the absurd notion that there is a viable threat out there, called “the left,” that wishes to do terrible things to us, like give us affordable housing, free healthcare, and a livable wage.
re: Russian offensive(s)
Betcha ya 10 that their will be at least one – an offensive being defined as an entire army (150,000 or more troops) probing deep into the enemy’s territory with the intent of taking objective after objective.
Surrounding Kiev and starving it into submission doesn’t count. It’s too close by.
The reason I think this, is there is glory to be had for the Russian officer class, but only if they get in the fight. Imagine after the war ends, and Russian officers everywhere are asked, “What did you do in the war, Daddy?” and they can only reply, “I cheered on Wagner as they won the war without us.”
Even those from the west on this blog are driven by saving face. You keep blaming eastern countries how they are only interested in appearances and saving face.
Last 20 years have shown that the opposite is true.
In fact Osama Bin Laden had predicted after 911 that US will self destruct by its response.
Why would Russian officers worry about what their children thought. Do they fight wars to satisfy their children’s egos?
I think the Russian officers believe that their government and command has it figured out what is important and how to go about it?
If you want peace you get WAR.
If you want WAR you get RICH.
The USSA and NATO are losing this proxy war, add mass migration, clot shot death counts and the implosion of the corrupt economic/political system, it seems like a total collapse of Western civilization cannot be that far in the future.
Pop a top again….
NATOstan has essentially painted itself into a corner by its own unhinged rhetoric. It can’t back off now without admitting defeat, a defeat it said was simultaneously
1. Impossible and
2. Would be a victory for “authoritarianism” over “democracy”.
which means it
1. Can’t be allowed since
2. It would more likely than not wreck NATO itself (as it now is) with the Imperialist States forced to drop the pretence that its EUNATO vassals are anything but colonies.
It’s obvious that the NATOstanis are running out of ideas; the hodgepodge mix of “military aid” will only make things worse for Ukranazistan, by clogging up its logistics requirements (apart from which a T 90 M will eat a Challenger or Leopard alive, while the French AMXs aren’t even tanks, they’re just heavy armoured cars). When this is obvious, what next?
Strikes on Moscow by nazi infiltrators and/or fifth columnists with drones? That’s why Russia is (finally proactively) putting Pantsirs on Moscow buildings; it isn’t because Russia thinks Amerikastani bombers will try to do a Dr Strangelove on the Kremlin. But those (inevitable) drone strikes, even if some get through, so change nothing on the ground. What then?
Can NATOstan (which will inevitably cheer on those drone attacks, successful or otherwise) step back then? It is already, in Macbeth’s words,
and every day it wades in deeper.
Therefore, I doubt that this will have a Kabul Airport/Saigon 1975 style “bug out” resolution; more likely the NATOstanis will formally enter the war by rushing troops into Ukranazistan, using a “request” by its puppet Elensky as a justification. The longer this goes on the more likely it is.
And this is also why Russia also has time constraints. It needs to destroy the nazi regime before a full on confrontation with the NATO gang ensues.
Remember that in both world wars the Imperialist States was a late entrant, only formally entering the conflict after years of open support of one of the two sides, and that in both cases it made use of manufactured outrage and media manipulation to do so.
You can see this happening again.
Where do these troops come from ?
Polish Army 61,000
Romanian Army 41,000
British Army 62,000
Ukraine has 150,000+ KIA. plus 350,000+ wounded
Only US Draft can generate manpower and they won’t survive the Atlantic crossing
Poles are mobilizing. They preparing for annexation of western regions, which is why Russians are grouping in Belarus.
So, they’re falling for the trap? Good luck with the bandoleros. Poles, go figure.
They don’t see it as a trap, but as a return to “good old days” of Polish Empire.
https://t.me/zoka200/6455
Polandistan is trying to mobilised 200000 reservists.
America. The only country late to a World war, twice.
Unbelievable, but it true!
Un poco fuera de tema.
A ver si alguien me puede aclarar las cosas.
Entre 1976 y 1979 trabaje para una Cia en Mexicali Mexico. que solo trabajaba para Hugue Aircraft company. y fabricabamos un monton de circuitos de los cuales nunca supe en que se usaban, salvo los circuitos de Phoenix para el F14.
Pero se fabricaban circuitos con alambre de oro y bastante caros llamados Loral, Litton, phoenix, Javelin.
Estoy sorprendido que los javelin solo tengan historia hasta los 90. entonces que haciamos? circuitos experimentales? y en Mexico.
Larry, my guess is you are too decent to make the cut.
Born and raised for 42 years in San Antonio. Ended up in Idaho in mid nineties. Returned to San Antonio couple years ago. Anytime I could actually find a landmark that looked familiar, everything close to it was totally and completely different.
I guess that’s progress, right?
The article is by Helmholtz Smith, not Larry Johnson.
Geo-politically, the Western Empire has blundered its way into a tar pit from which there is no escape. It’s a T-Rex, wailing with incredulity and terror at its bad luck, helpless in the face of the inevitable fate that awaits it.
Its elites will remain in denial for some time, but the West’s dreams of enhancing its dominance will soon be visible in the rear-view mirror.
They’re faced with a stark choice. If they abandon their Imperial Dreams to focus on rebuilding their respective nations, the RoW would be both pleased and supportive, but if they persist in their wailing all they’ll accomplish is attracting ever larger crowds of approving spectators.
We hear nothing indicating that they’re considering the former, but we have heard increasing talk of a 3rd, nuclear option. It may be no more than an idle verbal bluff today, but the logic leads inexorably from verbal bluff to kinetic warning. When the realization that Russia (& China) have successfully blocked their “rightful” claim to Global leadership has permeated the West’s elites, the voices calling for a nuclear shot across Russia’s bow will become shrill. One cannot assume that they’ll go unheard, and if they prevail the fate of the world hangs on what happens in the few minutes after launch.
” … the fate of the world hangs on what happens in the few minutes after launch.”
It sure does. That’s the thing about living in the Age of the Missile, when the Big Powers start firing them at each other, there’s no way for any side to determine, what type of ordance they’re carrying.
“You there, radar operater, is all that incoming on your screen nuclear tipped?”
“F+cked if I know General.”
I recall a certain Adm. Mike Mullen saying “not on my watch” re an attack on Iran. Maybe the General Staff would baulk at handing the football over?
Thank you Larry for your great piece and also for this nicely placed humor/sarcasm.
It’s basically the same playbook from the west that they used against yugoslavia/serbia (wording, lies, propaganda and stories about atrocities) but they have forgot that this is not serbia with some mig 29’s and a broken economy.
You don’t know if you should laugh or cry how bad it’s going to get.
Have a great weekend Larry and looking forward to the next one.
This was written by my friend, Helmholtz Smith. He’s a talent.
NO American has ever fought an Ostfront War. They imagine battles in Huerttgenwald or the Ardennes were equivalent but even then Patton could manoeuvre because Montgomery brought the force of the enemy onto Infantry at Falaise and gave Patton freedom to move.
80% Germany’s 5,000,000 dead were on the Ostfront.
The intensity of fighting and its sheer bestiality are beyond US experience in Vietnam. I doubt any Western military would perform as effectively as Ukrainians had so far – they had a better army than any NATO country.
If NATO gets too involved in tangling with Russia it may find Turkey resolves Greece, Algeria resolves Morocco, Syria resolves US gangsters in Syria, and N Korea resolves Japan, Guam
and Hezbollah resolves Israel
US has so many open fronts……and I still posited China as observer not participant
Latest from Scott Ritter show gives American Russian perspective from a Luhansk fighter, assuredly and/or likely within practical limits of an experienced US Army officer who served with US Armour with practical experience of the love for Eastern Europeans and Russians in the US Army from a command and subordinate perspective. His comments on the Bradley are interesting, for neophyte me, in context with Martyanov.
❗US always prepared for war with Russia | Putin again calls Ukrainian regime – Neo-Nazi
Jan 18
2023
On episode 19 of the show we are joined by Stanislav Krapivnik, retired Captain of the United States Army, a veteran, former infantryman and tank operator, he served in the Balkans, Bosnia and Macedonia. He was a military adviser to the UN mission in Georgia, where he prevented a clash between Abkhazians and Georgians on the border with Svaneti. Currently he resides in Russia, and you can also find him on his Telegram channel: http://t.me/stastydaiobratno
https://youtu.be/Pan4rUhOsvs
Even as an American national, he was distrusted as a Russian.
When the US military and intelligence loses people like Ritter and Krapivnik, it’s a blow to the cause of peace, and losing an aversion to nuclear war, but those that lose them are even more lost. Losing flabby equipment is small stuff.
I’m suffering a severe case of cognitive dissonance on this issue.
I’ve been told that the USA spends more on defense than the next eight countries combined.
In terms of “defense” budget it’s USA first, daylight second, then a gaggle of also-rans.
Now I’m also being told that USA’s carefully husbanded stockpile of weapons is being depleted at an unsustainable rate by the Ukrainians, and its MIC is completely incapable of ramping up production to replaced those depleted stockpiles.
Well, f**k me, what was all those $Trillions spent on then?
If you want to know what were all those $Trillions spent on, you should check Hunter Biden’s laptop (spoiler, mostly crack and hookers).
Well, f**k me, what was all those $Trillions spent on then?
Since even the Pentagon doesn’t seem to know –FIVE utterly failed audits, and counting — my guess would be … GRAFT!
“Well, f**k me, what was all those $Trillions spent on then?”
The Endless War business model adopted by our leadership was (is) the most efficient way to shovel taxpayer money into the hands of the elites, a tremendous grift that has worked for decades. Doesn’t do much for actual military readiness, but P.R. takes care of that.
What is most surprising is that they could have kept this grift going for a while longer, by picking on various 3rd world “shitholes”, as was the norm.
But instead they picked on Russia… and China… both at the same time… without a whiff of preparation, and seemingly without even much thought.
Ironic that our survival may depend on how nimble and effective Putin and his team are in dealing with these clowns. Fortunately the Russians seem well aware of the problem, but can they talk these idiots down?
The western “fail-upwards” policy of promoting failure says no. Logic, reason and smarts are not traits that survive such an eco-system; having a president who is senile and ineffective is the logical conclusion of this culture.
I’m too old to make the cut, so its liquor store time for me too.
That money includes all of the VA, debt servicing and maintenance of 800 or so bases worldwide. Not to mention the fat contracts for everything from consultants to maintenance to weapon system development. And since the US has been convinced that this sort of war is over and wouldn’t be seen again, the focus has been elsewhere. There was a time when the US determined that tanks were a thing of the past. The only thing that kept the factory open (the, there’s only one) was it was a Union shop and the political side of the MIC is about spreading that money around for political purposes.
If they continue like this, Ukraine Army 4 will be armed with anti-tank scooters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vespa_150_TAP
“Meeting in Ramstein” ever sound like a disaster ending in fire and blood in my hears …. curious they choose this specific place.
Anyway , it seems some in Germoney begin to understand they became the “B plan” to “weaken” when impossibility to “weaken” Russia with “plan A” was acted (by blowing things in the sea). Now the question is : how can an occupied country say “No” to its occupiers without consequences ?
What I think is the Huns will try to throw the poles under the bus like they did with the “soft Prussia” we now call “the Baltic states”. Will it enact the end of a very profitable EU for the Germans , probably , but you can’t thrive while dead anyway.
Ramstein Air Base serves as headquarters for the United States Air Forces in Europe.
As far as “disaster ending in fire and blood” goes, there was one there in 1988 (that inspired the name of the band).
Ok , the USAF want us to know who’s in charge and don’t care about locals traumas and the symbolic of the place. While they’re at it : why not Nuremberg ?
I wanted to say that they did it for practical reasons. I expect them to have some mini Pentagon in there. Most of people don’t see any symbolism because they don’t know about the incident, or the band.
Larry, I am out of Facebook jail again. Where I spend most of the year. I shared this article there. I hope you do not mind. As I said there. I am ex-military and police. So, my friends are an echo chamber of me. And they believe Biden and the media about nothing. But Ukraine. It is truly incredible to me.
Helmholtz: Very nicely done again. As Larry stated, you really are a remarkable talent.
I have seen information, (veracity unknown) that tuberculosis is becoming a problem within the Ukrainian fighting forces, particularly those trapped in wet, cold dugouts. Non existent healthcare and malnutrition are contributing factors.
Good luck to those Western mercenaries sharing unheated armoured vehicles, (built for the desert), with coughing Ukrainians.
Those Western mercenaries will be bringing tuberculosis back home with them, (should they survive the Russians).
By my numbers, the recent package of US/NATO infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and proposed main battle tanks (MBTs) is about the equivalent of one US Mechanized Infantry Brigade Combat Team IBCT(M) https://www.battleorder.org/usa-cab-2016 .
As far as we can tell, the US/NATO package only includes fighting vehicles not the robust vehicle recovery, maintenance and logistics elements required to keep that equipment in a combat ready/capable status. So that makes the package an IBCT(M)(-) meaning it doesn’t contain all of the equipment authorized/required.
Are you f’ing kidding me US/NATO??? One IBCT(M)(-) against how many armored Russian divisions supported by naval and air combat power???
At this point I believe US/NATO knows the UKR will fall…in fact they want it to so they have a “casus belli” for escalation into a coalition of the willing conflict (WWIII) with Russia…I hope it plays out differently through diplomacy.
I too have the same concerns. On the other hand if the unified west doesn’t have sufficient armaments for Ukraine how in the world would they fight with those Rooskies? May be the politicians don’t care but the military I am sure are scared shit. Thanks
re: “The pessimist can fear that NATO, when it finally gets to the bottom of the barrel and has cut its arms and legs off, will use the last weapon it has.”
America is engaged in what Professor Alfred McCoy calls “micro-militarism”, which is completely irrational and a sure sign of its decline as it desperately tries to maintain its global empire in the face of a changing world order.
This is an excellent discussion with Chris Hedges and Professor McCoy from a couple years back on RT:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=WmYfqbFeS6o
What I fear is that this irrationality will intensify and plunge us into a nuclear nightmare from which none of us will escape. The fact that the U.S. is ruled by complete idiots is frightening. The American people are suffering under them as they become increasingly disconnected from the needs of their own population in pursuit of maintaining a global empire – “full spectrum dominance” as they’ve called it.
God help us all. They’ve already tried to normalize the possibility of nuclear war with this now-famous PSA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLV9_epcVz0
i’ve never been one for “optimism” but i have a feeling the deep, dark “id” of the US is thinking “as long as all these stupid orcs stay on that side of the ocean”. yanks tend to be fickle and uninterested in stuff that doesn’t affect them directly and they’re kinda used to losing wars at this point. the chasm between what citizens care about and what they’re TOLD to care about is ever more gaping.
i predict in the next year all they’ll be focused on the election slogans like “Biden in 2024! We Did What Now?”
Long out of print but interesting and relevant read is Mark Axworthy’s* Third Axis, Fourth Ally on the Romanian armed forces in WW2. If I remember correctly, the 1941 Romanian Army was spent, especially after the battles for Odessa and in Crimea. They endured another disaster during Stalingrad. 1943 was spent rebuilding and that army was smashed in the Red Army offensives in 1944. Basically, 3 armies destroyed.
Story doesn’t end there as Romania, under imminent threat of invasion by the Soviet Union, switched sides and the size of their army was enough to qualify as the “fourth ally”. The Soviets were ruthless in confiscating weapons and assigning the Romanians as spearheads of many offensives but after all the losses, they still have an underequipped army at the end.
Its been reported that the new Defense Minister of Germany Boris Pistorius said that during the meeting in Ramstein they failed to agree on the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
A flash of sanity or waiting for a better deal from the Pentagon?
They are afraid of Russian tanks in Berlin.
https://odysee.com/@RussiaInsight:a/germanytanks:2
US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill is outraged that the Serbs remember and regularly remind about the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia
“For me, the biggest disappointment was that things that I thought were solved a long time ago are still fresh in people’s memories. I was surprised when I came here last March that every day something reminds me of 1999. States, like people, also need resilience, but also an awareness that some things need to be completed in order to be able to move on.”
………..
How do you like that?
I suspect what the Serbs think of as ‘completed’ and what Chris Hill thinks of as ‘completed’ are two very different animals.
If there was half a chance for a ‘completion’ a la Serbia, it would’ve been having Mitrovica carved off from Kosovo. That ‘might’ have paved the way for a real peace. Western powers are frankly, talentless conductors of cacophony that they peddle to the world as symphonic masterworks. I wish they’d just stay the hell out of the concert hall.
Well, I have some bad news for His Excellency Mr. Christopher Hill regarding the Serbs ! First of all, apparently, he did not delve into his studies for something as complicated and difficult for some to understand as history ! 🙂 The Serbian nation, with which our nation has been neighboring for more than 1,100 years, is well known for a few character traits, defiant, hard, steadfast, cruel, unbreakable, it is better to be your friend but never your enemy ! The Serbs will never forgive what they have done against them, and they can wait even decades to cut their throats, while smiling politely into their eyes ! How naive of a diplomat to believe that the Serbs will ever forget what was done to them !
I worked in Ukraine years ago, gas an oil (I did not get paid near as much as Hunter) And I talked to folks whose hatred went back literally hundreds of years. “:Oh yes, that family killed my great uncle” I asked how long ago I’d get an answer like 1756 or some shit.
If it’s not a secret, which nation do you belong to, Flagellum Dei?
I am Russian.
The West is obsessed with the idea of Balkanization of Russia – the division into 10-15 parts that are at war with each other. At first glance, the idea has a basis. Many peoples have lived in Russia for centuries with their own language, religion, culture, tradition and historical memory. But the West does not understand why, in the face of a common external enemy, the peoples of Russia unite together. Because they know how to forgive, because friendship is much more valuable than the desire for revenge.
Ukrainians, it seems, do not understand what it means to forgive and do not know how to be friends. For this reason, Ukrainians have lost their country. The West has helpfully helped them to break apart a beautiful country.
Flagellum Dei mentioned Hungary in comment section of another article.
Dived and conquer have been modus operandi of British/USA Empire all along.
If you see two fish fighting in water, you can be sure an Englishman passed by five minutes ago.
I think it’s pretty clear that the Germans (at least the military) see the writing on the wall for Ukraine and are just barely smart enough to not want to be one of Washington’s last sacrificial lambs. They simply prefer watching the Poles bleat and bleed away.
The new batch of goodies looks like what NATO determined was necessary for the spring offensive. That is, repeat Kharkov. Kharkov worked pretty well but NATO May think it was the baseline rather than a confluence of events including a thinning of Russian manpower, advantageous terrain, etc. that made a NATO style light infantry assault work well. Not to mention the Russian refusal to fight to the death for territory. That situation is no longer present anywhere along the front.
The other problem is whether the new material will be delivered early and how much Ukraine will spend piecemeal to defend the current front. You can see the tension between western advisors saying pull out of Bakhmut to preserve forces and Kiev refusing to give ground. I’m not sure the western advisors are considering whether Ukrainian forces are capable of a fighting retreat or whether the next line of defense is as defensible.
With Russia now pressuring everywhere, the potential for a major crack to be exploited is also everywhere. Internal political and social tensions mounting in Ukraine mean that everything becomes less predictable in the event of a failure anywhere on the front. Spring is a long ways away.
Whenever I hear someone add Brian Berletic to the mix they lose a large part of my respect. I have only listened to Berletic speak once and that once was one too many. My bone of contention is Berletic’s stance on our adopted home of Thailand. Brian, in my estimation, has no integrity.
The real wonder weapons for Ukraine are going to be long range missiles to hit Crimea or Moscow. The Nazis in Kiev and the Nazis in the West desperately need a PR. win soon.