Not since Wile E Coyote’s repeated failures to nab the Road Runner have we seen debacles like the ones now unfolding in the UK and Europe as a consequence of their misguided effort to destroy Russia. Germany’s economy is on the precipice. With an economy dependent of the import of oil and gas from Russia, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz thought it a dandy idea to cut itself off from its main supplier. What could go wrong with that?
In the Netherlands, the government has declared an economic war on its farmers (inspired by the government’s desire to go green) and has been surprised to discover that farmer produce food. Who knew? Check out the grocery shelves:
They wanted to go green but now get to go hungry. Apparently all food stuffs does not come packaged from Amazon.
Leave it to Boris Johnson (no relations) of the U.K. to put on the biggest clown show at the circus. The British economy is poised to re-enact the submereged sundering of the Titanic:
The UK is sliding towards a recession. Only six months ago, a strong recovery was expected, but the impact of the pandemic, the slow return to pre-Covid work patterns and soaring inflation driven by the Ukraine invasion have depressed the economy.
Last week the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, warned that Britons are likely to suffer a deeper and longer downturn than other major industrialised nations. He also said inflation would be more severe and persistent.
Instead of sticking at home and trying to at least maintain a pretense of trying to address the mounting political problems, Boris has built up his frequent flier account with trips to Kiev in order to hang out with his new man crush, Zelensky the Comedian. All of this neglect of the homefront by Johnson came to a head today as he is now faced with a tsunami of resignations from his Cabinet. Leave it to Boris to do a great imitation of Helen Keller as he adamantly refuses to acknowledge the dramatically eroding support or hear the calls from his own crew to resign. He stumbles along, at least for now, petulant and stubborn. We have not witnessed this level of self-delusion since Hitler was holed up in his Bunker moving imaginary armies to try to stop the Soviets.
Boris, according to press reports, fancies himself a reincarnation of Winston Churchill. That means we can add another medal for self-delusion to Johnson’s list of accomplishments while in office. It appears that B.J. is guided by one of Churchill’s iconic quotes, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” News flash for Boris–this is the end of the line. It is time for you to go.
Russia and the war in Ukraine is the undercurrent to all of the unfolding political chaos in the UK and the rest of Europe. The high hopes that severe economic sanctions would bring Putin to his knees turned out to be the first great fairy tale of the 21st Century. Putin and the Russians are doing just fine. It is the European lot, as was the case with Wile E Coyote, immolating themselves.
If the European economy was humming along like a Ferrari in the fast lane, the European public, especially the Brits, would be willing to ignore the lies and incompetence displayed by their leaders. But the Ferrari is out of gas and stuck in the desert. That does not make for happy, patience constituents. They tend to get a bit rowdy and unruly when having to forego a supper.
I imagine Vladimir Putin is tuned in to Sky News, seated in a big recliner, munching on a bag of popcorn and scarfing down a beer or two while watching the Boris Johnson show, who has reinvented himself as Captain of the Titanic. Boris is lashing himself to the mast. He will go down with the ship.
Complicating the situation for Johnson is the deteriorating situation in Ukraine. Sir Hew Strachan writing in the Daily Telegraph offered up this sobering assessment:
But in terms of Ukraine’s requirements now, Nato has offered little more than warm words. In doing so, it has exposed the continuing gaps between the alliance’s understanding of its own security and Ukraine’s immediate needs.
Time is not on Ukraine’s side. The country is losing lives and suffering direct destruction: for Kyiv, the economic costs are more severe and more immediate than they are for Russia. However, Nato behaves as it once argued the Taliban did – as though Russia has the watches but Nato has the time. It doesn’t seem to realise that Nato will be out of time if Ukraine is defeated before next summer.
By then, in its best-case scenario, the alliance will have provided the Ukrainians with the equipment and training to enable them to mount counter-attacks. But Nato’s strategy depends on Ukraine’s resilience over the coming winter – and the resilience of its own electorates.
Here is my prediction–come the end of August, Boris Johnson and Olaf Scholz will be out of office and Vladimir Putin will be sitting pretty.
Die deutsche Regierung sollte spätestens im Herbst Geschichte sein. Aktuelle Umfragen in Deutschland zeigen eine abnehmende Unterstützung für die Regierungspolitik, obwohl die Deutschen sehr affinität zu Propaganda sind (Magret Thatcher, 1990) und bereit sind, sogar grobe Lügen zu glauben (Napoleon).
The German government should be history in autumn at the latest. Current surveys in Germany show decreasing support for government policy, although the Germans are very affinity for propaganda (Magret Thatcher, 1990) and are ready to even believe gross lies (Napoleon).
It’s all part of the “‘Great’ Reset”. Zelensky is actually a clown, but does a better job than BoJo the clown. Ukraine, CO2 (and now N2), meat eating, etc. are just excuses. The COVID poison vaxes are a means. Don’t be distracted. TPTB’s intent is to kill about a billion, maybe many more. “You will own nothing and be happy”
i call nonsense on this conspriracy crap , it is the incompetence of the west handling covid pandemic that ruined their own economy and it is a good thing because weakened by covid pandemic the western neocons nowadays are far weaker when confronting russia.
the pandemic destroyed Neocon ‘s plan against russia and china , and all due to the west’s own incompetence. Who would start a war with russia and implement sanction regime in the light of west’s weakness in every metric.
Watch how the rest of the world spit on US led sanction regime on russia. The other nations know the time has come to rebel as the empire is now at their weakest and most brutal stage before dying.
the only way americans can be saved as a nation is if the US empire gone , that at least will save american people as a whole , even though they will have to live within their means and have to drop their arrogance acting as if they are exceptional.
Otherwise it will be Revelation 14 all over CONUS
No conspiracy crap, if one listens, the Davos bunch and their puppets tell exactly what they want to do. Then when you listen and notice it all becomes “conspiracy ”
True that they are incompetent, but this is all planned and was announced well ahead of time. They are just too stupid to pull off their own conspiracy effectively.
The Davos bunch will lose, is losing, nothing can change that.
All free people going forward is going to have a huge debt to the Russians who have once again sacrificed their blood and treasure to save us from Nazi totalitarianism.
If we swing certain people from high lamp posts the Russians just might even forgive us going forward. It may very well come to that.
Trade Soros, Gates, Schwab et al to the tribunals and Russia might open the gas valves again.
I say that sounds like a fair deal.
Someone blew up the Georgia Guidestones today. Symbolic for but it makes me more hopeful than I have been for a long time.
these.bozos practically operate in the open and western public so distracted they cannot see their livelihood got destroyed in the open
no conspiracy needed , just sheep population
The conspiracy is manipulating the sheep!
Yeah Davos is like the Communist Internationale of the 19th century. A bunch of nut jobs with crazy ideas. Until suddenly they seized control of Russia and started implementing their nutjob ideas.
Davos is now got control of several countries governments and we see the results.
Its not a conspiracy.
Well, if it’s a conspiracy as opposed to just idiots being idiots, it’s not working out very for the conspirators. BJ is down and out and many more – like so many bowling pins – will follow, including most of the democrat party here in the states.
It is obvious to an outside observers that European nation’s leaders and their EU unelected representative are in one voice and one mind in serving the interesrt of US policy. It is also obvious they do the insane green agenda at the detriment of their own economy and their own people.
The question is this : now blind and passive are european people with regards of their irresponsible govt behaviour and the very obvious act as US puppets ? Is the europeans rendered so meek and now become nations of sheeps who silently going to their own slaughter ?
The prime example is the order-loving-krauts , just how naive and stupid are these people listening to their newly elected green party leaders calling for less light less heat less shower and watch these american mandarin destroy german’s own economy / industry ?
Usually these kind of amateurish and obvious puppets will be deposed by their own population (only to be replace d by strong man type leader) but alas the german (and europeans) forgot their root after living for so long in comfort and “pretend” peace and “pretend” democracy..
As for the dutch , let see how they react when one of the protesting farmer got shot
The Green Party nonsense will be tolerated for a very short time. Once VW and Mercedes shutter the factories and the people start burning furniture for heat this fall, the greenies will be run out on a rail.
pretty sure the piss and vinegar have been sucked out from ordinary germans. now they just sheep and will bleat in protest but nothing more
They might surprise you. Missing a few meals in the dark and cold tends to change a person’s attitude.
Just look at Syria during the Arab Spring, Russia 1917, and the French.
Re: “time” and EU energy needs…
While the RF clearly states intentions of SMO, some of these require larger scale capitulation by the US/EU/NATO. How to make that happen w/o a lot of “kinetics”?
The choke hold! Energy.. plus other stuff!
RF exported 12 Bcm/month to EU at end 2019, with little LNG. As LNG imports began to increase in early 2021 at about 2 Bcm/month, the RF matched those imports with reductions in its supplies. LNG increased to nearly 5 Bcm/month by late 2021, with RF dropping to match (12 Bcm/mo EU total!) so no net gain to EU supply to this point.
Now NS1 has cut supply in June ahead of planned maintenance shutdown July 10. In 4 days there will be a net deficit of 7 Bcm/mo!
Total EU storage capacity is about 100 Bcm. At present it is 48% full (48 Bcm). RF goes to ZERO on Sunday, from that point on EU has net deficit of 7 Bcm/mo and no significant added LNG sources. Somebody drops a wrench in a motor and it’s “sorry but big prob gonna take a while”… More likely it will be a explicit action as part of escalation spectrum.
Looked up LNG tanker capacity 260,000 cubic meters… think about how many trips from some as yet unidentified source this would require to make up this deficit… Number of ships/regasification capacity are out of reach
So the arithmetic says that’s 6 months then things get cold and dark quickly. This may drive “regime change” only not the way the genius west thinks.
Many facets to this… What is so difficult about NATO backing off?
Jorge Vilches over at the Saker site has been posting articles about the coming EU oil and gas suicide by cutting off Russia. The stupidity is just cosmic! Here is his latest:
https://thesaker.is/europe-fails-with-german-help/
Diesel is the weak link and the Russians know it.
I have been following it with close interest all year, I fear it will be the fulcrum of choice more so than Nat gas in the coming Months.
As the article well explains it is just about impossible to switch EU production of diesel to a new (yet unknown) supply of oil import, even with a major refit of every refinery. It is going to be a long, cold expensive Winter.
However there is an additional glitch not mentioned.
So lets say the EU does cut Russian oil imports by the end of the year.
Then by chance a lucky oil strike is found tomorrow under the EU Parliament that was:
1, The exact same as the Urals grades (so could be refined right away).
2, By use of fracking and extra hot gases taken from the EU members debates, could be supplied at the exact same volume as the to be cut Russian oil imports.
The glaring problem is that the daily EU diesel usage is greater than the TOTAL EU refining capacity for said diesel.
The EU is dependent on imported diesel to make up the difference.
Take a wild guess who provides a massive part of that daily import! (last I looked even UK was still taking Russian diesel by third party shipping).
Earlier this year as the price of diesel slowly crept up, more and more US refined product started to head East to Europe, it follows the money. It helps but could not replace the loss of the Russian diesel if cut off. More diesel supplies will have to come from ? And try and find clean shipping space for distilled products (not crude carriers) good luck its all booked by India and China right now.
Now there is another big problem coming down the EU highway.
Its called American truckers!
As the midterms approach the price of diesel in the US will become critical.
As the diesel price crunch comes, do you think uncle Joe will keep the flow to Europe going?
And the Greens outlawed wood burning stoves last year.
Not looking good.
i thought putin said if the krauts want firewood they will have to get it from siberia ?
That would be epic!
Meanwhile the UN is preacheing about “The benefits of world hunger”. They deleted the article today, this is a snapshot from yesterday:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220705153241/https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/benefits-world-hunger
That was a satirical article from 2014. Not really the views of the author or the UN but does appear to reflect the attitudes of the sociopaths we have put in places of power.
Been reading your excellent blog for a long time but never felt the need to comment before.
Farmers produce food.
Yep, sure do, but there’s a historical caveat.
Not if the stupid greedy bugger before them poisoned the water table, destroyed the surrounding ecosystem, ruined the viability of waterways and denuded the soil of fertility through over production and long term destructive farming practices.
No viable ecosystem, no natural soil fertility, no farming, no food.
Who knew?
This is a lesson many Australian farmers learned the hard way.
Imperial Rome didn’t learn this lesson and agricultural overproduction and the destruction of soil fertility was one of the major contributing factors in the collapse of the western empire. It took the Italian peninsula centuries to recover much of it’s soil fertility.
“Too much nitrogen and phosphorus in the water causes algae to grow faster than ecosystems can handle. Significant increases in algae harm water quality, food resources and habitats, and decrease the oxygen that fish and other aquatic life need to survive.”
https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/issue
Which is the long term point of the EU wide Natura-2000 legislation these Dutch farming morons are having an issue with. If you don’t fix nitrogen in the soil, if your farming produces too much nitrogen to be fixed in the soil, it leaches into the water table and river systems and destroys ecosystems.
Dutch beef farmers stuff four times the animal biomass into a farm than the EU average. You couldn’t even get away with this level of stock concentration in Australia even for a short time.
Here we are on a site where you so accurately point out the belligerent political shortsightedness, short term profit and disregard of long term consequences of western political and strategic leaders, but the belligerent shortsightedness, short term profit and disregard of long term consequences of Dutch farmers gets a free pass just because they are a bit pissed at having to adapt their farming practices so as to not stuff over everyone in the future.
No long term viable ecosystems, no natural soil fertility, no farming, no food, no people.
Who knew?
The only sad part about Bojo going down with the ship is that the ship is full of innocent English men and women. The whole English gov. should do as the Imperial Guard of Japan did and commit ritual suicide. But alas they have no honor and ours in the US have less.
We the people should help in that honorable endeavor. It is the decent thing to do.
You know what. They voted for this. They have no one to blame but themselves.
That same argument can be made in the US but I’m sure it is entirely accurate.
if the ship is led by brutal ruthless evil guys at the top , who dont care about their own people below deck , then why would anyone outside the ship care about these lower deck nice people and innocent people and whatnot ? the ship is making a mess all around and other ships will prioritize in sinking the ship or destroy the leader / captain / bridge crew.
as if the “innocent US citizens” are not the beneficiary of the doing of their evil leaders ? no matter how much tiny benefit they got from being a member of ruthless Empire they are still participant of the empire and will get portion of the punishment which is coming in the near future..
easier analogy would be this , if a car driver intentiinaly harm other cars on the road and crashed the car , would the “innocent passengers” get hurt or not ?
Some crusty soldier once saud “kill them all and let God sort them out” , imagine this will be done to US empire due to its griveous sins to God and to human beings all over the planet
BoJo is on the rocks. His cabinet has been busy resigning, starting with the Chancellor of the Exchequer (Rishi Sunak – a second generation Brit from India).
Further, this little piece of news seems to have escaped widespread attention – ArcelorMittal (the world’s largest steel producer, and operator of the Azov steel plant), a British company has resumed exporting steel to Russia. It seems that the South Asians in Britain have discovered reality.
https://goodwordnews.com/arcelormittal-the-worlds-largest-steelmaker-resumes-deliveries-to-russia/
Considering Prof Kent’s latest book is “Freedom from Want: The Human Right to Adequate Food”, I suggest that the article was rather facetious, perhaps overly so, hence its retraction. A hungry person (I’ve been there) thinks only of food, not work, which requires good health and reasonable pleasant conditions for high productivity.
Christine Lagarde doesn’t know how to put out the fire of euro-bonds….
The ECB is selling German bonds (there are still buyers at the moment!!!) to buy Italian junk bonds (Third economy EU), Spanish (Fourth economy EU), Greeks and Bulgarians, which are worth 👉 “0” euros on the market. It is possible that they will drop Bulgaria and the latter, perhaps, will beg Russia to save its life.
Europe is about to Ka-boom and forget about Europe being rescued by an enlightened leader, Larry.
I live in Austria and have never been more disappointed with the government and the media here in my whole life. The newspapers literally only cite Elensky, Arestovich and some kind of British institute or British politician or British ministry. It is so brutal in its obviousness and ignorance, that every person with an IQ higher than 50 should see what kind of dellusional BS-peopaganda this has become. BUT NO, believe me, the Russian-hatism is too deep in the bones of some people to let them think rationally. Like f…g robots they believe absolutely everything the government or media says, it is just frustrating. An example from German TV that illustrates what a political debate look like:
A: “Russia can’t just dictate who is allowed to join NATO, isn’t it? I mean, they are not allowed to do that!”
B: “Of course, no! They are not allowed to do that!”
It is like watching dead rats discussing geopolitics, mindblowing in its stupidity.
All tied together with Putin’s slow but significant progress in Ukraine. Time is on his side given that the war success is baked into the cake and the blow back of the West is yet to be fully felt. NATO is in firm peril along with a list of regimes that will certainly fail in the West.
Very fine commentary.
L.
what metric you use to state the progress is “slow” ? do you have information to back this statement other than endless fake news MSM sources ?
and this is not “putin’s SMO” , this is russian SMO. I find it laughable that delusional people in the west constantly said “putin this ” “putin that” due to their constant ingestion of western propaganda.
Harley forecast Boris’ resignation (and why) a month ago:
Boris Johnson Pushes War with Russia to Save the Empire’s Global Britain Project
2,199 views Jun 8, 2022 “Global Britain” is a rebranding of the British Empire, designed to defend the “Rules Based Order” which serves City of London and Wall Street oligarchs as they move to impose the “Great Reset”. His strut with Zelensky through the streets of Kiev, his promise to deliver multiple-launch rocket systems to Ukraine, and his praise of veterans of Thatcher’s “Falklands War” are signs that he is committed to maintaining Britain’s provocative role within the Special Relationship, while promoting neoliberal economics and war to defend the collapsing Empire.
SEARCH: Boris Johnson Pushes War with Russia to Save the Empire’s Global Britain Project
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVJUp2dWhPw&t=3s
boris in or out there will be no difference on the path that UK taking regarding ukraine. It is not ukraine issue that make brits loath boris , it is culmination of issues (real or not) and the final clincher is current economic inflation in UK.
boris is easy scape goat for the mess in UK , he will retire with great compensation for playing his role as bumbling clown (which is the reason he got elected in his first place). No sane man would think boris is capable of anything other than debating his peers. The UK moves with or without boris the puppet , just like America moves with or without biden.
to all western people who still think their voice matters , just look at how “peaceful cops” from “peaceful netherlands” shot at protesting farmers.. Thats your real overlords brandishing weapons to its own population. Democracy ? accountability ? rule of law ? human rights ? all bullshit nice words ..
Pontrilas
I agree that diesel will be a massive problem and not only for EU. US has same problem if supply sanctions are not avoided thru 3rd parties (eg. India). In addition restricted availability of urea to make DEF is likely to be another important point of failure for transportation.
Everything stops!
On top of that EU power/heat will be in short (unavailable) supply.
How is nato going to run any sort of combined arms action w no fuel? How is Germany going to mine the brown coal for dirty power without equipment?
As we saw w SMO, the RF made a massive early effort to knock out all UAF stockpiles and logistics. The boot on the throat of nato members (unfriendlies) will be to simply cut gas/oil before a bigger war gets going. Maybe even limit 3rd party resale since good RF relations w India. Further supply to non-nato (sovereign) countries only.
Non-kinetic and a judo move leveraging critical weaknesses.
Thank you Larry for all you do!!
BoJo’s gone.
Another embarrassment
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3548649-icbm-test-rocket-explodes-seconds-after-launch/
typical indian military… we all read and know indian rocket / ballistic missile test constantly failed during launch.. this is like standard operating procedure for them..
wait… vandenberg ? this is US missile test ? this is not indian crap ?
Nope, not India, not even Pyongyang.
Mark Rutte: Wie is een klootzak nederlander1!
“Here is my prediction–come the end of August, Boris Johnson and Olaf Scholz will be out of office and Vladimir Putin will be sitting pretty.”
I hope you are right, I predicted that chancellor Scholz and the coalition of the SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and DieGrünen (green) will collapse in winter ’22/23.
This all is a to complex subject to discuss, so let me share just some of my views (I hope not to be confusing):
It becomes more and more clear to me, that there are forces at work, that are keeping the politians steady on the course that has been taken. And as far as I see it, there is no party in Germany, that does not follow the same path, exept one. But they are beeing excluded, because the german fascists are trying to grasp control of the party, with which they are failing every time they try.
Why would a government, that has a strategy, which is to use the huge gasreserves of russia, as medium, to realise an energy-revolution on this planet by using only renewable energies in a few decades, be putting on an embargo of natural gases from russia? Is this just plain stupidity? No, it seems to be arrogance. The believe that sheer will can bring the change is widespread. But they forget that one needs to train and equip for what they are doing, sheer will has not brought anyone to a single top of a montain. But the higher one gets the greater the fall, which will come.
In the german-industry it was allways a blessing to be able to rely on cheap energy. With russia as parter of the industry, both were thriving. That had to be stopped, for if it would go on, it might be that Germany furtherst the ralationship with Russia. That could not be tolerated, because:
We live in a world of economics. Our currencies depend on the gross domestic productivity. If the ladder one falls, the first will follow. Every big decision that may reduce the ladder has to be thought thru intensively. And if not to be avoidable, such a decision has to be founded within reason and the law.
At least that was the standard of the past. But standards are no more.
First came the pandemic and standards had to be changed, to saves lives of course. Well, I thought the standards were there to save lives and not the other way around? But who am I to ask questions, if one should trust? But what to trust, if not even the standard are being adhered to?
So it is with the energy supply of Europe and Germany. Our politians have the responsibility to enable the markets to do what they are there for, to trade and keep trade withing reasonable prices, thats the standard. They all failed and the people are waking up to this.
As said in the article, the people in Netherland are not complying any more. The Farmers started it and a lot of people are supporting them. I was there yesterday and spoke with a few people, there are really empty shelfs in some supermarkets. The Farmers blocked logistical centers and fishers blocked some harbours. A policeman nearly shot a 16 years old kid, driving a tractor, because the police felt threatened by him. The boy, his brother and father had been arrested. The backlash of this is spreading fast.
So, what to conclued?
It clears out, at least to me, to be an actively fought economic war between the major factors, the U.S., the European Union and Russia/China. The European Union, believing to be an ally of the U.S., is loosing and the world will probably get to know two major economic powers in the future. The new iron curtain is begining to unfold itself and it will be partly in Ukraine.
This all inherits the possibility for great disasters. So I hope for the best.
I forgot:
If the actual government of germany would be forced to resign, the breakdown of Germany and the EU can be undone, if the ralationship to Russia is resolved. Then it would still be a question of who’s economy could last longer. We will see.
Actual govt of germany is in DC , the krauts now “leading” germany are all puppets and russophobes. how do they even able to wear their “neutral/innocent” mask again after showing their real russophobic face ?
and even if majority of german people want to replace current govt ? i dont think DC will allow it and the german state apparatus will be overjoyed to use their batons and firearms to subjugate their own population..
after all , a wise german once said german people prefer order over chaos , no matter the cause
So far, western political elite support for “the war” remains strong and almost unanimous. This is despite the obvious point that the discontent leading to regime change is heavily linked to blowback from the sanctions and the misguided policies being followed.
Makes me think a little of Russia in 1917. All parties except the Bolsheviks still supported the war, even though it was destroying the country. We know who came to power though. Ultimately, the west will end up bowing to reality. The question is simply how much suffering occurs before we get there.
France had given some 155mm Caesar Howitzers to Ukraine.
seems to be a very effective weapon.
And what happened now ?
It seems that Ukrainians have sold 2 of them on the dark net to russia, who is now analyzing them.
Regime change is like a box of chocolates Forrest.
You never know for sure what you are gong to get.
The Harrods Spring has begun.
Zelensky is actually a drag queen in heels disguised as a comedian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5eXWeoe1Ko
Hi Larry, I’m from Brazil and sorry if there are any spelling mistakes, I’m not fluent in English. The truth is that the West has bought a fight it cannot win, because it does not have the tools to do so and because it is not prepared for this war by proxy. Russia accurately predicted every step of this war, and despite one setback or another, it is operating on schedule.