My Thursday article ridiculing the DIA’s top dog for analysis, Dr. Trent Maul, for his banal comments about Ukraine’s prospects for success was written with the assumption that he was interviewed by Newsweek. Boy, was I wrong. Maul’s musings on Ukraine’s “realistic prospects” of future success also appeared in The Economist and the U.K.’s Telegraph. I cannot discern if he spoke to the three reporters (Economist, Newsweek and Telegraph) individually or as a group? Or, did he only speak to The Economist and the other two repeated parts of his interview and put their own spin on it?
Regardless, this was not just some run-of-the-mill interview. Maul did not wake up Wednesday morning and declare, “Damn, I feel like talking to a reporter today.” He spoke to the press with the full blessing of his boss (the head of DIA) and probably General Milley and SecDef Lloyd Austin.
The Economist piece is titled, How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress. I want to highlight some key elements that were not published in the Newsweek piece:
An annual DIA report, “Soviet Military Power”, was read avidly during the cold war. But intangibles are just as important. Mr Maul singles out the will to fight—and candidly acknowledges that his agency got it wrong in Iraq in 2014 and Afghanistan in 2021, where American-built armies crumbled almost overnight. . . .
That experience, along with the evaporation of the Iraqi army in the face of the Islamic State group, led DIA to “over-correct” when judging how Ukraine would fare when Russia invaded last year. “We had a similar thought that they were just overwhelmed on paper.” It has proved a teachable moment. Mr Maul brandishes a 40-page “tradecraft note”, published this January, which re-examines how the agency measures a country’s will to fight.
I give Dr. Maul credit for one thing — he admitted that DIA got it wrong. At least he is consistent. Maul goes on describing DIA’s “methodology” notes that casualties, inadequate training and critical shortages in ammunition and other logistics will play a decisive role in whether or not Ukraine’s army remains a viable force. Maul’s explanation to the Economist correspondent is more nuanced than the rosy scenario painted by Ellie Cook in her Newsweek article.
The Economist reporter also spoke to other American officials. One in particular deserves skewering:
One Biden administration official says that Ukraine has around six to seven weeks of combat left before its offensive culminates. . . . “If you look at the battlefield in five years’ time, it could look broadly similar,” says a senior American intelligence official, emphasising that the quality of both Russian and Ukrainian forces is declining over time.
The ironically named “intelligence official” reveals gross ignorance about Russia and its capabilities. The Russian Army is stronger and larger today than it was 18 months ago. The Russian defense industry is operating at levels unheard of in 2022 and producing enormous volumes of drones, artillery shells, cruise missiles, tanks, vehicles and regular ammunition. None of that is true for Ukraine. Missing this kind of data point (or points) explains why you can have an intelligence failure. There is a built in assumption that Russia will be in stasis for the next 18 months. That ain’t going to happen.
The big take away for me from Maul’s interview (or interviews) is that the Biden Administration completely discounts the possibility of a Russian battlefield victory and a Ukrainian collapse. If Ukraine does collapse (which I think is likely) we will witness Afghanistan II — which means the United States once again is caught unawares by a rapid deterioration and will scramble desperately to come up with a Plan B. By then it will be too late.
I think the key variable that will determine the Russian military’s course of action in the coming months in Ukraine is the status of Western ISR. As long as the U.S. and NATO continue to supply Ukraine with floods of ISR data, which means knowing roughly the location and size of Russian forces along the line of contact, I do not think Russia will launch any big movement offensives. A large scale maneuver offensive would require assembling a concentration of troops that would be easily spotted by ISR and then targeted for attack. As long as Western ISR remains intact Russia is opting to disperse forces and attrit the Ukrainians without employing World War I tactics of human wave assaults across open fields.
Unless Russia can come up with a way to deceive Western ISR, it is unlikely to assemble a Division size element that could deliver a decisive blow in some sector of the line of contact. This is what distinguishes a Special Military Operation from a war footing. If Russia decides to attack Western ISR assets that will be a sure sign of a major, escalatory shift in the Russian military’s plans and objectives.
Larry, tho your attention to ISR strikes me as sound and important, knowing where the Russians are and retaining enough combat power to meet it strike me as two distinct things.
That said, I do think there’s a very good chance that Russia continues to attrit the West for at least another winter.
I think you understand that very well !!! Here is an article describing what Larry was talking about.
Achieving Secrecy and Surprise in a Ubiquitous ISR Environment
https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-88/jfq-88_85-90_Lenfestey-et-al.pdf?ver=2018-01-09-102342-050%20
While an initial surprise, like what happened to France in the Spring of 1940, is probably not practicable, due to ISR, that does not forestall an operational surprise after most of the forces have been committed. Imagine, after an intense week of battle, something like Operation Market Garden is commenced along an important road or supply junction. Even with the best aerial surveillance, the Germans would have had no idea where 3 airborne divisions stationed in England were likely to be deployed, or if they would be deployed at all. For example, this came out a few days after the SMO was launched, illustrating the same issue:
Satellite images show Russia’s troop movements but can they reveal intent?
“The challenge is getting after the intent,” she said. “We see capabilities but what’s their intent?”
https://spacenews.com/satellite-images-show-russias-troop-movements-but-can-they-reveal-intent/
The other thing the Russians have going for them is the bumbling Western intelligence agencies and four star military advisors Ukraine is saddled with. (lol)
But, that said, I would agree with you and Larry, the Russians seemed to have found a winning formula without such exertions.
You have a peculiar understanding of 1940 and aerial recon.
Neville Chamberlain as PM bought an Anson aircraft and had it fitted with retractable fuselage bay doors and high-resolution cameras. It was flown by an Australian pilot for deniability and flew regular flights photographing the construction of the Atlantic Wall by Organisation Todt.
He had British civilian airliners’ flight crews photographing German structures in the Rhineland in the years before 1939.
British Royal Engineers had constructed a network of radio listening stations across the empire – especially Central Asia and this signals traffic was later fed to Bletchley……they monitored German signals at Stalingrad and in Crimea.
There WAS ISR – there were Mosquitoes flying surveillance camera flights at high speed monitoring events and assessing bombing results………
Germans too flew photo recon missions
It is not as if the current ISR is so phenomenal – Russia can jam MQ-9 drones – it can even use ECM to upload maskirovka data
There is a perpetual failure in Western culture to think some technical device makes the inadequacies of Westerners inherently superior to any adversary……it is conceit – terrible self-delusion and self-conceit
I apologize for not being clearer. The point that I was trying make, but failed was that even if you know exactly where the units are, now or were back then, you still have the problem of “intent”, as pointed out by Space News. And that would apply to whether you had a fully equipped Anson, Mosquito,
Blohm & Voss BV 141, Storch, U2 or modern era satellite, etc. Larry’s point was that ISR makes achieving “initial” surprise difficult, but that does not foreclose operational surprises occurring after an engagement has commenced. Montgomery had a particular aptitude for that kind of warfare, running the Germans up and down the Rahman Track at El Alamein, until they hadn’t sufficient petrol to maneuver, as an example. I apologize for my lack of clarity. 🙁
Yes intent is the surprise factor I agree
“like what happened to France in the Spring of 1940,”
It is a mistake to see the May 1940 Ardennes breakthrough as a failure of the French army. The truth is that this was treason of a high order, and in particular by General Weygand. French officers had no good reason to believe the German army could not get its thousands of tanks, trucks and artillery through the many logging roads in the Ardennes forest. The French army never explored the possibility, even though the logging roads were well known. The least-trained French troops were defending the forest and they were not even given field radios. The first thing the Germans did, of course, was to cut the phone wires. At that point, French Army headquarters should have seen red alarms, but they did not. If the French had flown a recon airplane over the Ardennes they would have seen the sky light up with the headlights of 48,000 German vehicles, as the Germans mentioned in their memoirs.
What transforms any reasonable understanding of May 1940, from a case of monumental stupidity, into a case of high treason, is the context and what happened later. The context is that throughout the 1930’s, the French army – at the highest levels – very openly despised the Soviets and favored working with the Germans. In 1938, Czechoslovakia was a gift from France and Britain to Nazi Germany. That added 45% to the manpower of the Wehrmacht, and also 45% to the German armaments factories. On the eve of the German invasion, the Wehrmacht staff was very concerned that, if the Czechs resisted, the German Army might suffer a defeat. Hitler assured the Generals that “the fix is in.” Which was the case. The gift of Czechoslovakia and the overall thrust of French and British policies was to help Germany do its Drang Nach Osten and thus rid the world of Bolschevism. The gaslighting of Czechoslovakia is detailed in the book by Dr. Annie Lacroix-Riz, “Le choix de la défaite: Les élites françaises dans les années 1930”. “The choice of defeat.” I wish there was an English translation, but there is not.
A couple of military details are quickly compelling. In March 1939, when Neville Chamerlain made his grandiose speech in Parliament proclaiming that Britain – and France, too, he added – would protect Poland, this was an obviously hollow promise. Britain only had 2 divisions that could fight in Europe. Germany had over 90 divisions on the Western front, another 90 or so on the Eastern front. But 2 vs. 90 doesn’t convey Chamberlain’s fraud, because Britain had no way to get even 2 divisions over to Poland. The ships would have been sunk. Of course, when Germany invaded Poland, Britain and France did absolutely nothing, which was all they could do. So why did Chamberlain make such an impossible promise ? He wanted to ensure Polish intransigence against any security pact with the USSR. The last-ditch effort to stave off WW2 by having a French-British-USSR pact was torpedoed by intransigence from Warsaw. There are two memoirs of that August, 1939 “mission to Moscow” which lay this out. The main memoir is by General Doumenc, finally published in 1992, and the other, published in the 1970’s I believe, is by his Captain Beaufrere who was dispatched to Warsaw to obtain Poland’s approval.
If that is too complicated, let me offer a shocking statistic. After the outbreak of WW2, came the “Phony War”. Neither France nor Britain increased the rate of production of warplanes and other such material after the outbreak of war. They expected to never have to fight the Germans. The statistics tell the truth. Newspaper headlines of the time were encouraging the Germans to attack the USSR. This has all been swept under the rug in the decades since.
I said that subsequent history shows the treason the French Army. Consider the career of General Weygand, the man who let the Germans into France through the back door. In a normal world, he would have stood trial for treason. He certainly would not have remained the top general and still been leading the French army in 1955.
I believe Weygand was the French general assigned in 1920 to help Poland defend against Red Army on Vistula and his HQ was in Marki, a suburb of Warsaw
Yes, French officers were highly involved in helping Poland fight off the Soviet armies. I think most history texts avoid this topic.
ISR is somewhat overhyped, just like a lot of American military technologies. The fact is that with today’s technology, you can pretty much see the whole battlefield, what’s happening, and preparations at a glance – you see the whole chessboard. Or, if you like, you can see everyone’s cards.
That leads to a different kind of game from before. The Russians know that and have adapted. The American military establishment follows military doctrine that is retrogressive. Looking back to World War II and later wars such as the Iraq war.
That means that maneuver war means one thing for the Americans and another for the Russians. Ditto combined arms operations and the like.
There is no need for the Russians to mount major offensives which, with or without ISR, almost always lead to casualties. Their primary goal is first of all demilitarization which Zelensky is doing for them. Tactically and strategically speaking, the Ukrainians are military morons. Bakhmut is a flytrap. So is the Surovikin line. The flies cannot resist. And they are dying. Or flying off to Poland, Germany, Austria, in other places where they think there is honey.
Putin certainly should not mount a major offensive until his reelection. By that time, the combat line will have naturally moved north with almost all of Donbas under Russian control and at least part of Kharkov.
If the Russians want to mount a major offensive then what could the Ukrainians do to oppose them? What could NATO do?
I think Paul’s comment complements Larry’s as usual superb analysis!
“If Russia decides to attack Western ISR assets that will be a sure sign of a major, escalatory shift in the Russian military’s plans and objectives.”
I`ve been praying for that since the middle/end of march, 22, when the initial phase was undeniably abandoned.
India just told the US at the G20 to abandon Camp Bondsteel and return Kosovo to Serbia per UNSC Res 1244. (indirectly, of course)
https://youtu.be/2hW9j2ICX6Q
Excellent Analysis Larry,
And accurate. Due to Western ISR there will be no big Russian offenses. These are peer opponents. These are not goat herders and their women being murdered.
This will be a godawful blood-soaked grind. The Russians will pound pound pound, and then move forward one more shitty 4 house village. And rinse repeat. And the Ukrainians will have more meat puppets to send into the line.
Look at the man creature. Whether it is his God, his woman, his children, he will always die/kill for the purposes of the manipulators. He is not that bright. Look at a Ukrainian being chain ganged to the front. He may as well pull a knife and be shot by the Nazi back fronter kidnapping him. But instead, he will go and die away from home.
The illusion of hope. The illusion that the good guys win. Hope. It is not viable.
I forget who said it, but if I remember correctly it goes like this:
Hope is just deferred disappointment.
‘Hope deferred makes the heart sick’ Proverbs 13
Hope is wishful thinking about something over which one has no control.
Derrick Jensen has a wonder video about this, a take off on Star Wars and the Death Star.
Faith is something different, BTW.
Hope is all there is when you have nothing else.
Hope is our strategy, luck is our tactic.
No way to fight a war.
Depending on which estimates you believe, Ukraine has had somewhere around 1% of its pre-war population killed in the conflict so far. The USSR in WW2 lost 12% of its population but still won the war. So if Russia wants to win just by sheer weight of casualties they are going to have to kill at least 10 times as many Ukrainians as they have so far, which will take a long time and cost Russia a not insignificant number of its own casualties in the process (much less than Ukraine but still significant).
In addition, the length of time taken gives a lot of room for surprises such as rapid advances in drone technology, which could completely change the plan in either direction.
More Ukrainians have left the country (and have stated no intention to return, EVER) than have died for it. But despite Zelensky’s attempts to get Poland et.al to extradite Ukie cannon-fodder, Ukraine is roughly half the population it was. So whether dead or simply “deserted”, think 40-50% of Ukraine’s formerly available press-gang candidates of 3 years ago has been permanently lost to the Kiev Junta.
Poland is making deluded noises about building up their military over the next 2 years… Stupid is as stupid does.
Wikipedia clings on 19,5 M male pop as of 2019. Since its Wikipedia i would minor this figure by a few M, like 15 M in total. This figure includes the male pop abroad. At least a quarter or even 1/3 of the pop. Let’s cut corners and assume that 6 M male were in line when russia knocked at the door.
official figure 400k KIA. But WIA are just dead meat either. So 400 + 600k : total 1M
Remains 5 M. A good portion is in Dumbass. Another will use every trick to avoid conscription. Bottom line, without being a demographer one can easely observe the shrinking portion of available meatballs.
Additionnaly one can question why Kiev has just stated that minor of 17 years old, women, Sida affected, mentally defficient patients, legal workers abroad would have to submit to this 11th conscription…
You should do statistics and start with sampling and maybe move to probability theory. You think 400,000 MEN are DEAD and think the population of Ukraine was once 40 million………….
The last Census in Ukraine was 2001 when they think they had 48,500,000 people of whom 22,000,000 were MALE. Ukrainians have been exiting the place for decades – some for work in Turkey, some to Poland, some to Germany…….which is why there is an infrastructure in Western Europe to facilitate them leaving en-masse in 2022……..
It is country where women outnumber men and the birth rate is almost 50% death rate…..it is a dying demographic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
That is without removing the DPR population from the totals.
probably but in the end we agree on the end result
I have seen videos of indian Travel YouTuber visiting Ukraine last month. He shows that life is largely unaffected in most parts of Ukraine.
Except for the frontline cities and a bit in Kiev people go about their normal life confident that Russian attacks are rare and only target military areas.
It’s such a contrast from how US conducted it’s wars in middle East.
Population of Ukraine is now about probably 20 million down from 41 million. Most remaining in Ukraine are likely to be in age groups 0-15 (6.55 million) and 60+ (10.15 million) leaving about 3.3 million in the 16-60 age group. Total Ukrainian losses are in region of 450,000 or about 14% of military age adults remaining in Ukraine.
If you don’t like my numbers come up with your calculation of what has happened.
So parents are fleeing the country, leaving their children behind?
I find that a bit unlikely.
“He may as well pull a knife and be shot by the Nazi back fronter kidnapping him. But instead, he will go and die away from home.”
He may, but then the Nazi back fronter would shoot his wife and kids too. Speaking of shooting innocent people, weren’t you in that business, voluntarily?
I was. And I learned better. I still don’t mind killing people. But I won’t do it for other people or their ideology. I learned I did not like to be used.
You still want to kill “the yellow man”, but this time Chinese. You don’t want to do it for other people or their ideology, but because they are the bad guys now. Someone has to be the bad guy. Someone that is not yourself.
Iran (under sanctions for decades), Russia and China have functional hypersonics but Pentagon and MIC with 17,000 times the budget of the rest of the world combined still cannot make one (just aborted another test a few days ago). “US government officials” are scrambling to find out how Chinese made a smart phone chip that is as sophisticated if not more than our best chips. Africa is booting the French and Americans out of the continent. BRICS is growing. Saudis, Iranians etc. are banding together in the middle east. More and more countries are opting to trade in their own currencies. The list goes on and on.
Vladimir Vladimirovich needs to do absolutely nothing in the SMO. Soon, nobody will pay attention to it anyway or what Sullivan, Nuland, Blinken and co. are saying, for the simple reason that the west will be (already is almost) on the outside looking in and nobody will care (we already saw all the mighty military equipment burned anyway, what else is there to talk about or better yet, does anyone care what the French have to say in Africa?). Let’s face it, we are becoming more and more irrelevant and it is becoming an echo chamber of lies and bullshit, patting each other on the back imagining that we are the best, which we no longer are. The inflation is 3.2% but the pizza that cost $5.99 last year is $6.99 this year (16% increase) – even the dumbest of the dumbest can figure they are being lied to….
I think reverse brain drain has already started as well. I know well established immigrants leaving the states (or seriously considering their options) because their original or other countries now make much more sense and are much more in line with their values, not to mention ever increasing cost of living here, taxes etc. in return for less and less both in the government and private sector. Every year insurance premiums here increase, health care insurance is higher but you get less, roads and bridges are worse…. How much brainwashing and being told that the “economy is better” and “we are the best” can you realistically take, esp. if you can read / watch news in other languages (esp. from the developing world)?
There are dime a dozen “experts” like the one(s) you cite – that we pay hefty taxes to support. They continue to be surprised by Chinese technological gains and smart phone chips, Russian military capabilities, African coups, diplomatic rebukes (like Saudis joining BRICS) etc. etc. “Think tanks”, “experts”, “consultants” and “NGOs” – that’s all we have left – they live comfortable lives doing their gigs while the country is sinking….
Oddo,
The short clip below summarises the Chinese tech gains you referred to in your post.
https://youtu.be/dcos7KyhbOs?si=oozL4ttz4zHUSOgf
Nice!
People don’t realise demographics matter.
US had mass manufacturing as it’s USP in 50ties. Since then Japan, Korea and now China have mastered it.
US brow beat Japan and South Korea to some extent but China is too big.
Plus with the manufacturing, internet, logistics, energy food etc of the rest of the world is no longer dependent on US and the West or it’s allies
Now why does the world need an boorish west? Even it’s markets are shrinking.
This would be a defining moment. RF needs to disable/destroy OTAN ISR to reduce casulties prior to launching a large scale operation. How does OTAN repsond? IF RF can jam/disable OTAN ISR, without knocking down satellites, would that still inccur a OTAN eponse by taking down RF satellites? Would it be successful? Certainly a return strike on RF ISR would be expected, leading to a RF response. What else might happen? OTAN bases destroyed at a minimum.
There is no capable OTAN conventional ground force to enter the fight. Poland and small US light infantry do exist, however, not in the numbers or with the support armour, air, artillery, munitions, and air defense to prevail. What are the chances that for an expeditionary force to be sent, again, from the US? Not likely, it doesn’t exist. Mfg capability doesn’t exist to equip it and Star Trek teleporters only exist in the movies. It’s a long way across the ocean otherwise. Have a nice trip.
That leaves the nuclear option, and …what?
The collapse of the the ukronazi waffen ss army would open a opportunity for rapid larger force movements to the Dneiper, Odessa, at a minimum. However, would that prompt OTAN nuclear response?
Interesting timez …
Jamming is considered a fair game. Intentional physical destruction is not (and hence avoided). The incident with dumping fuel on a drone was in the “gray zone”.
Destroying satellites could easily escalate to full blown war, and that is something no one is interested, for now. If it starts, you better “duck and cover”.
What is interesting about “jamming” is that Russia is probably way ahead of the West on this, due to the last Cold War:
Struggle Against the Fake News and the “Enemy Voices” in the USSR. Propaganda Wars
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CginrkUrYI&t=134s
The owner of that YT channel grew up in the USSR and the channel is devoted to what “ordinary life” was like in the Soviet Union. He was living in Kiev during the Chernobyl Accident. His delivery is a little flat and dead pan, but his stories are often hilarious as he basically describes what citizens did to get around government policies and restrictions. Some of the stuff is really a testament to the human imagination. The channel is worth a look if you are interested in the topic. And as the West seems to be heading down the same route, some of the solutions he describes may once again be viable in the “new” progressive western world.
My question, does Russia need to launch a big offensive? What would the objective be of territorial gain versus continuing the attrition of NATO in Ukraine while building influence worldwide with a multipolar world takes shape at the expense of US hegemony?
Perhaps the US is hoping Russia will go big this time, and not disappoint them as they did in 2022 by not rushing into the carefully laid bear trap.
Well … the case of Ukrainians shelling civilian infrastructure and ordinary people is a good reason to push more to western parts of “what is left of Ukraine”.
I think Russia is just waiting for the Ukrainians and Nato to exhaust themself more before they see it a good option to push forward. It a sound strategy. They will also deal with Zelensky’s/Natos’s war crimes when the time is right too. Nothing will be forgotten.
US/Nato and Zelensky still dont’t understand who they are dealing with.
Ultimately, yes. These would be desirable outcomes. But there is no timetable or urgent need to do so. Drone attacks on Moscow are being launched from within Russia, after all. Taking territory by itself will not solve this problem.
Time is on Russia’s side.
Ukraine’s artillery-missile attacks on the Donbass civilians are the longstanding problem which will require taking territory to push them out of range and eliminate their fortifications (Avdeevka, etc), and when they get longer-range missiles Russia will need to take even more territory and create an impenetrable buffer zone. That will be one priority, but taking Odessa will also be important to prevent importation of heavy weapons and to enable blockading of other trade. Demilitarization is not only about killing enemy soldiers and destroying their armor but also disabling their economy, and Russia’s precision missile strikes on military and energy infrastructure are only temporary measures. So yes, taking territory is a critical aspect of the SMO.
This Trent Maul doesn’t have a wiki. I couldn’t find any dates for his College or Navy time, either.
A search on both Google Books and Amazon turned up nothing, and even Google Scholar has nothing listed as being written by the man. But a man who doesn’t write either books or journal articles waves around a 40-page document likely created by a committee.
Based on the weasel wording of The Economist piece, I’m going to pigeon-hole this fellow as an Intellectual Prostitute who will smoothly and glibly champion anything desired by his Patron. If the money (and future prospects) were right, I’d wager Maul would be quite competent in declaring Ukraine to be a complete basket case.
I can’t really blame the guy for wanting to make a living, but cleaning toilets and making the beds in a Tijuana whorehouse would be a more honest use of his talents than his present position of peddling vague pollyannaish BS to get a nice salary.
Just call this fellow John Kirby II – another fine product of the US Navy.
‘Trent Maul’ : perhaps a pen name?
It is all just more verbiage to pressure Russia into doing a deal. Lest Russia assume we will quit as we have done in the past leaving a rout behind us, it is told this is not like then. This time it is different because… ta dah!… of the Ukrainian will to fight.
Russia does not need any lessons in fascist zealotry or the slavic will. It lived unhappily through the western fuelled near decade long civil war in the east that eventually led to the SMO.
NATO-Europe knows that its interests elide with Russia’s longer term, and that this means that as a fighting force Ukraine has to be fully neutralised and the Baltic big mouths shut down for a new way forward FOR EUROPE to be forged. The real US fear is that it will be the big loser from an insane military escalation in Europe that it cooked up. Already it is losing out as a result everywhere around the globe you care to look.
But what do you do with a policy for winning that was built on a war of words, a Neocon belief they could magically ‘persuade’ Russia into internal collapse? They overreached. The newspeak that prosecuted this aim has become more risible by the day, and that means this voodoo weapon is shot. In the great game of words, the most powerful are those that inspire laughter. The NCons tried this against Russia with the shovel talk!. Russia’s response was not to argue the point but defeat it with real action on the ground. And that is what is winning this war for Russia now, not a war of words- the west can out-talk anyone- but ACTION in the real world, an arena in which the west is notoriously weak.
This western ship is a ship that will go down with no captain standing in dignified silence saluting the setting sun, but the whole collective lot of them posturing and shouting at their confected enemies even as their platform slides beneath the waves. (G20 anyone? Russia and China were right to give this ‘am dram’ a miss. It was only ever good for one thing- agreements to print money and so apparently magic wealth out of thin air.)
Bye bye to Oz land. Welcome home, Dorothy.
Good post. A sound assessment of reality.
I always thought the US wanted a big escalation in Europe. What they want is a replay of WW2 where everyone else gets destroyed and they escape with relatively minor damage to be the “last man standing” again.
What the US/Rothschild NeoCon Cabal wants is not what it will get. Russia and China will not allow the US to develop hypersonics, period. That would once more level up the MAD playing field and allow the US to interminably continue to force proxy-war whack-a-mole onto the rest of the world.
I expect that as soon as the US successfully test a hypersonic missile, Russia and China will declare war on the US (only the US. Not NATO/EU) and within hours drop conventional hypersonics on US mainland Nuke silos, and perhaps a couple US nuke-equipped bases in belligerent European countries. Like Poland and Britain. And Diego Garcia, because there are only US/ZATO personnel there. Then we would see how strongly the ZATO vassals believe in Article 5.
North Korea just commissioned their first (reasonable to expect more) nuke-powered, ballistic nuke-weapon-capable sub. Perhaps Russia gave Kim longer-range land-based hypersonics so NK would be less likely to unilaterally send their new sub off to patrol the US coastlines. That’s Russia’s job, no need to complicate the battlefield.
Very strange indeed – what do you think the Shuttle was,or for that matter the X35?
Mach 25, mostly peaceful missions – who knows what the X35 is doing? the US knows hypersonics – engines and heat- shields.
Obama killed the Shuttle, and the Constellation follow-on. Only now the NASA Artemis mission recovers, thanks to Trump.
Hypersonics for peaceful exploration is a good idea!
With the new Ukrainian defence minister who looks more like a pimp rather than a defense minister, most likely Ukrainian military will collapse on its own before Russia launches its major offensive.
And the old Defense Minister getting kicked upstairs to London as Ukraine’s ambassador. Yes, Zelensky is really “rooting out the corruption”, is he not? Or maybe the rats are leaving the sinking ship in an orderly, predetermined fashion?
There is the possibility that the prior Jewish defense minister has been replaced with a Muslim Crimean Tatar defense minister with the expectation that the Ukraine will rise a notch in the estimation of the “global South”. Zelensky is an actor and his US patrons are all about image and identity politics. That’s how we ended up with Vice President Skank.
“There is a possibility that the former Jewish defense minister was replaced by a Muslim Crimean Tatar defense minister,”
Let’s just say that I have never seen a person of Tatar nationality who looks like this ! 🙂 Let’s stick to the fact that he also comes from Rezhnikov’s tribe, presumably this may be a legal requirement there ! 🙂
Right now, with what is happening in Ukraine, the US government is every bit as ugly as what Hitler was in Germany.
Since Russia and China have turned in real evidence that the US is creating bio weapons designed to specifically kill Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkMlkB2JFv4
Clearly Russia invaded Ukraine because Russia had too. The US government is criminally insane. The US seems to be planning to kill its own citizens as Kamala Harris recently stated that everyone would be driving electric vehicles and that they would “depopulate” so the chosen could breath the fresh air.
Attacking ISR assets would be an act of war, even any active interference (optical laser blinding, signals jamming/spoofing) is considered an act of aggression. And it will not be the Russians who escalate.
Simplicius76/December91 writes a good summary on ISR/ISTAR and lately combat attrition on capability and morale. Foreshadowing a disaster.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dire-new-western-reports-call-to
This video from drone target acquisition and engaging shows the essence of actual frontline situation.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/bEuLc2af8SNZ/
Signal jamming/spoofing is a fair game. No one will send a missile towards a jammer that’s on territory of “neutral” country (e.g. Belarus, Poland, Moldova). US won’t launch a missile strike on Moscow, if a Peresvet was blinding their optical satellites from there.
The new Russian Peresvets beam weapons, is rumored to have a nuclear power block.
what is known about the new Russian combat laser “Peresvet”
“Izvestia” found out the details of the creation of weapons working on “new physical principles”
https://iz.ru/1258024/anton-lavrov-aleksei-ramm/luchnaia-rabota-chto-izvestno-o-novom-rossiiskom-boevom-lazere-peresvet
Pumping grasers with microwaves, neutrons, punching atmospheric holes before the beam are all just under the carpet.
Andropov refused Reagan’s SDI offer, and it seems the idea of new physical principles has been revived by Putin.
Maybe we have this all wrong. Maybe the real intent of the west is the destruction of Ukraine. The french, poles and germans, others too perhaps, certainly would not want Ukraine as the largest and most poweful army in Europe and NATO despite what they say.
It sure looks like no-one wants a WWII leftover festering again in Europe, except of course the original sponsors – Britain.
Will it dawn on the Kiev junta who think they are capo dei capi, boss of bosses :
“Here is your money, sonny, ye are gone bunnies?”
So why did they prop up them back in 2014 after the coup? Your logic is not sound.
Ukrainian army was a nothingburger, just like the rest of Nato. It is obvious that west with the use of Nato wants to encircle Russia for many reasons. The rise of the BRICS and the end of the petrodollar is more plausible to me. Ukraine is being used up as a proxy. Even when the west already knows, that they have nothing left to defeat Russia in any (un-)thinkable way, they will still try it in spite, because Ukrainians are much cheaper than their own people. This was also already stated publicly by some US bubble-heads. If they can’t stop Russia’s rise, they will try to slow it down.
Multi-polar world is the death of US bullying everyone to accept their worthless US-Dollar. The US has an overall debt of whopping ~130+ trillion. They know exactly what is coming. This inflation-clow-show right now is nothing. Sooner or later the US will have to declare bankruptcy.
Why did Prescott Bush, granpa, of Harriman Bros. prop Hitler up in 1933? Why did FDR put Harriman Bros. through the justice mill that grinds exceedingly slowly, but finely?
Profiteering from war, nothing more. Is just another opportunity to make a buck. Why do you think Russia is still selling oil and LNG to Europe? Business is business, politics is politics. Some things are as obvious as they seem.
Everyone knows that WWII was not about what history books try to tell us. It is all about hegemony in finances, economics, whatever. Germany recovered too quick from WWI. UK had to “do it again”.
There is something that went on in Ukraine that cannot be exposed, it’s written all over this and explains much of what is going on. Specific bio-weapons to kill Russians would be one such scenario.
Add greed of military contractors with the dismal and criminal leadership in the US.
Watching Jake Sullivan- the look in his eyes has the look of someone who has literally sold his soul to the devil, dead, lifeless, this guy is a walking corpse. He paid a price too steep for the success he has. He knows he is full of crap. I don’t think these guys are clueless as to what is going on, my god look at his face! In Harry Potter there were Deatheaters. Southpark had a Suckubus. DC is clearly toxic.
Is depopulation an unstated goal here?
If Sullivan loses any more hair, the 666 on his head will be visible. If his mother’s casket contains a jackal, we’ll know for sure.
I am struck by how much of the US narrative reflects that of the Nazis in 1942…….they are convinced of the inferiority of the Soviet forces and Homo Sovieticus as a genus because only through such a paradigm could they sustain their belief in innate superiority.
US mentality is that they are a species superior to all other human civilisations and life forms and that the whole of human evolution has culminated in Homo Americanus in the northern domain of that continent.
It is bemusing to see how the same condescension towards Gen Giap and the forces of Viet Cong leading to US humiliation were repeated in Afghanistan – a sort of Boer War experience which seared the British and caused Germany to arm the Boers and British media to question or (Daily Mail) serve as gung-ho jingoists to counter opposition in England to the conflict.
US is now a bizarre spectacle to the Rest of World crowd……it has proven beyond doubt its policy is dictated, executed, propagandised, and concealed by a small clique or cabal of fanatical Jewish activists driving a bovine American populace into self-destruction.
The Economist has a nostalgia to those of us who remember it as an English periodical owned by Pearson – even if Marjorie Scardino the CEO who unravelled the empire was American – but now the magazine is edited by an American and has been Beltway focussed since at least 1990
It is hardly insightful and probably lives from NATO slush funds or Agnelli Family trusts……….
There is in the Beltway a failure to see how hollowed out and discredited so much of their appendages are……
RUSI , Royal United Services Institute, just in case no one knows about this,
How UK media mislead us about Britain’s leading military ‘think tank’ 15 June 2023
https://declassifieduk.org/how-uk-media-mislead-us-about-britains-leading-military-think-tank/
Its second largest funder – providing between £500,000 and £999,000 – is the US State Department, add in BAE et al. ,
BUT :
RUSI’s largest funder is the European Commission, which represents European governments.
Brexit for thee…
Economist (US money), Financial Times (Japanese money) , RUSI (US and EU money) just shows if it walks like a Dime, quacks like a Quarter, it is a Petrodollar (traded in London).
Tent the Mole, graduate of the London School of Economics, and Kings College London, listens to His Master’s Voice. Nostalgia indeed!
Seems to me there is a simple solution.
Strategically degrade the Ukrainian electrical grid with continuous missile strikes to force a mass exodus of Ukrainians into Europe before winter sets in.
Ukraine military cannot function without electricity.
The exodus into Europe will overwhelm the already collapsing EU.
Once the majority of people are gone to Europe, cut the railroads and highways in the west of Ukraine so that no further weaponry or ammunition can get into Ukraine.
Start advancing westward, destroying all Ukrainian/NATO military gear you come upon, until all the required territory needed for security is secured.
“… the key variable that will determine the Russian military’s course of action in the coming months in Ukraine is the status of Western ISR.”
Russia cannot stop US/NATO collection of reconnaissance data from spy satellites etc, at least without triggering the risk of a much wider war. But Russia could seriously reduce the ability of the US/NATO proxy army in the Ukraine to react appropriately to that ISR information. Massive strikes on Ukrainian HQs, power supply networks, communications, fuel supplies, bridges could make it very difficult (at least temporarily) for the proxy army to concentrate forces at the right places to repel a Russian advance. The denizens of the DC Swamp would be able to see what was happening, but the Ukrainians would be unable to act accordingly.
The limitation on using that approach to work around US/NATO ISR seems to have been the Russian desire to avoid causing excessive civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure — along with the desire to avoid triggering all-out war with US/NATO. But winter approaches. General Winter failed to show up last year. If this winter brings the right weather conditions for large-scale movements, we may be surprised by a Russian attempt to cut off the head of Zelensky’s snake followed by a “Big Arrow” advance.
Why does Russia have to work around and try to deceive ISR? Hey, there’s this huge army coming down the road, surprise! If the Ukrainian army has pretty much collapsed at the time, why would it matter?
It’s a variation on Dirty Harry… instead of 5 bullets or was it 6, more like “do we have 5000 or 6000 missles? 500k troops or 600k?
The slow steady grind works just fine. And while I’m sure there are some things hidden, the show of force matter too. The Russians have to overwhelm NATO, not just Ukraine; this will take a few years while Europe freezes and the Russian military strengthens.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-mexico-michelle-lujan-grisham-suspends-open-concealed-carry-albuquerque-gun-violence/?fbclid=IwAR0PNzeEfDg95bjAU72bhYgl7Bd5oEcT5i_U_36WfflG2PjaBCM2HMS-Nwo
Focused like a laser beam on my nihilism. This started with a guy ranting about how ‘Muricans were not going to take this or that! I replied with 90% of people are sheep and will do whatever you tell them to do. And hence I am a nihilist. And he then explained that ‘Muricans were tame wolves, but if you riled them! Whoo Boy!
Well, the New Mexico governor just shit all over the 1st and 2nd Amendment, the Constitution, and specific New Mexico state law. Are the “wolves” prowling the street with their 2K Daniels Defense AR15 penis extender? Has La Revolucion began? Cricket. Cricket.
Want to know a fun fact about the Holocaust? The Jews walked onto the trains. They walked into the gas chambers. And the one or two out of a hundred that even raised his head? Was centerpunched, and the rest walked over his body.
Here is realism/nihilism. “Murica is Hollywood. We believe our own fantasies about ourselves. We think WE won World War 1 and 2. We THINK we could have won Vietnam. We think we are a democracy with a Constitution. And laws that matter.
Those are fantasies they made movies about. That you ate your popcorn and believed. Along with the history books THEY wrote. You are a useful tool to them. And they are working on AI and automation where they won’t need you. They are working on viruses and vaccines that will enable them to kill you when they reach that goal.
Nihilism. Or reality. Still waiting for the “wolves” of New Mexico.
And just for the record. I am a nihilist in the streets, an existentialist between the sheets.
“I do not think Russia will launch any big movement offensives.”
Since the YouTube from Jimmy Dore’s channel is correct, and Russia has real evidence, that the US is trying to create a bioweapon that kills people with Russia genetics, (something that will most likely kill Ukrainians too). Russia’s slow war of attrition has played right into US bioweapon developer’s hands. Russia is out of time.
This is why the US wants to keep the war going in Ukraine, this has been the US governments plan all along.
It goes past that my friend. The Covid vaccines and Covid itself were a test run. When automation and AI are ready? Well, those beaches would be a lot nicer without those fucking peasants around. I mean they need “some” peasants. There is some shit work, and the needed Secret police goons. And of course, the select pretty young children for their amusement. But the rest? A matter of time.
Russia’s situation has changed from the years leading up to this limited war.
It’s become very plain that much of Europe regards Russia with enduring suspicion and hostility.
It’s become plain that Europe and the US are presently under-industrialized compared to Russia in terms of military potential.
While “traditional” Russian tendencies for border expansion were dormant, now that they have gone to the expense and bother to militarize due to the NATO threat, why should they stay dormant?
WHEN the moderate Putin and his regime are removed from power, it’s very likely that the replacement will be hard line and expansionist.
I’m sure being a former “Intel” employee, you’re rather tuned in to all the “Intel” PR going about.
But let’s pretend for a moment there were zero anywhere.
Putin, Medevev et el have declared their positions and intents.
Biden, Nuland et el have declared theirs.
There’s a map, or rather several. To see positional warfare daily.
No “analysis” needed in this global game. The PR pumps, on all sides will continue.
This “Intel” garbage is a bunch BS and only gotten worse over the last 25 years.
A waste of tax payer money like everything else these days, a slimy “club” to do the bidding of those with levers of power.
Anyways, every American has known since 2001… the “Intel” community are a bunch of traitors and overpaid PR pimps.
Wisdom in life is to apply the acquired knowledge.
When you have an “Intelligence Community” info sanitized (and politized) according to a chosen narrative by apparatchiks like Avril Haines, conducted by Antony Blinken (the one which climbed the stairs in the 2003 Iraq clusterfuck, when he assisted then-Senator “old rat” Joe Biden, Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voting on Iraq invasion), nothing more has to be said.
Seems Sputnik has picked up the Roundtable with Judge Napolitano on YT and published a piece referring to the main statements made by Mr. Johnson.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230909/us-lies-about-ukraines-failed-counteroffensive—ex-cia-analyst-1113233650.html
The mixed messaging allows for reality
to go in any direction and then say “we said that is what would happen.”
Politics at its best(or worst).
The ideal from that standpoint is to keep this
up till past the election.
The overwhelming majority of Americans and its allies believe that US could whip the Russians any time any place.
War is hard work-that lesson seems to have been lost for many in the west.
The previous two observations lay the groundwork for WW3. Hopefully lessons are learned before that.
Dr Maul’s surname is German for mouth and is normally used for non-sapiens, Das Maul as in the phrase “Halt’s Maul”.
I think the “Intelligence” community is missing the radical change that satellites and drones have brought to warfare. The basic idea now is, if you can see it you can shoot it. The point is that the current ISR facilities make a 152mm howitzer a sniper rifle. This is a game changer in how resources can and should be used. Infantry needs to change and the skills of field craft are becoming more important. Infrared sensors add a spectrum to the visual accuity of an observer. Armour vehicles are just big hotspots on the battle field. Tanks now provided mobile field artillery. Radio communication is critical. In watching videos from Syria, I am convinced the Russians learn the tactics being employed by the Syrian Army. It was a squad with a tank the cleared buildings. There was overwatch from drones and always a man with two or more radios directing the action.
The basic point is that Mr. Kinzhal makes a Mig 31 essentially a sniper rifle. The US needs to get with the current times. Pronouns versus sniper rifles is really a tremendous overmatch.
Sorry about the OT / but I think the anti-war journalist community should be aware of this. From Simplicus’ Bitchute channel:
Sarah Ashton-Cirillo – Warning about next week.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/IDP5Dhnp6rJy/
Because Cirillo seems to have thing for Gonzalo Lira I thought he/she was talking about Gonzalo being sentenced (or maybe worse). It could still be about Gonzalo.
However, after sleeping on it, I realized it could be any other journalist who opposes this war. Seen this way, he/she could be hinting at another Daria Dugina type attack? And then anyone on the Myrotvorets hit list would be fair game: Mearsheimer, Greenwald, Mate, Ritter, Gabbard, Hedges etc.
I don’t want to sow panic, but an FYI is in order. IMHO
Larry,
I like your analysis; however, IMHO, there will be no big Russian offensive anytime soon as why change a highly effective strategy that is attriting NATO and Ukraine very rapidly? And a winter of cold (economic) discontent is rapidly approaching the West.
I agree that before any offensive starts, NATO space assets will be (at least temporarily, possibly permanently) blinded. Probably the meaning of the recent Starlink decision by Elon – I am guessing he was showing the Russians he matches his words to actions (unlike NATO) and will turn off Starlink when asked (rather than have them all ECW slagged).
Re: DIA, they seem not to understand (perhaps they do not want to) the difference between unconventional and conventional wars, the will to fight, and whether the gov’t is legitimate – see the wave sweeping West Africa. My working theory is they start by assuming US policy (whatever it is, even if it 180* changes every few years) is legitimate, build the narrative framework, and then conduct their analysis within that framework.
Drinking the Koolaid comes to mind.
You’re assuming some kind of chauvinism is the culprit on the behaviour and narrative following on the numerous intelligence agencies. I propose that it can be some form of overthinking, when the sociological explanation could be that every agent is enforced by institucional doctrine conducted on a top-down political decision. And everyone has bills to pay in the end of the month, and integrity is a quality of subjective interpretation…
Not disagreeing with what you say – note, I did not assume they believed their original US policy is “good” in a Manichean sense, just that that was their starting point.
https://cynthiachung.substack.com/p/the-enemy-within-a-story-of-the-purge-d2f
Interesting summary about the purge of us intelligence and the resultant sinister farce: dulles, NED, weinstein, gershmann, Ignatius, et al. Unfortunately, article stops short of describing the current delusional structure but it is clear, as it has been, that MI6 plays a key role.
———————————————————–
In this paper I will go through how the Henry Kissinger crew successfully purged the last significant remnants of decency within the CIA and reshaped the government structure into the Deep State that we see it grotesquely throbbing as today. In this story, we will see how those prominent figureheads who prophesise the “end of democracy” have been the very orchestrators of its destruction.
Through A Glass Darkly:
he could play the media assets like a ‘mighty Wurlitzer.’ Today the mighty Wurlitzer actually exists. It’s called CNN.
Russia may not be as vulnerable to Western ISR as is currently believed.
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/06/11/how-su-30-has-intercepted-the-f-35-he-came-almost-out-of-nowhere/
https://breakingdefense.com/2019/10/us-forces-untrained-not-ready-for-russian-jamming/
https://archive.ph/LZJll
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-smashing-330-ukrainian-uavs-per-day-uk-report-says-russian-electronic-warfare-wreaks-havoc-on-kyiv/
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a32173824/nudol-missile-anti-satellite/
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34992366/russia-test-space-weapon-satellite-killing-missile/
https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/russia/tirade.htm
The DIA did one good thing that I know of. They evaluated the Iraqi aluminum tubes as parts for anti-aircraft artillery rockets based on an Italian original design. They pointed out that the dimensions and thickness of the tubing made them unlikely candidates for a uranium refining centrifuge. Naturally, the CIA swept this under the rug in its mission to create a WMD threat.
@ Jullianne
You have a lot of background knowledge and know how to formulate!
Today in Russia very complex and significant economic developments have been decided for the future. See Putin’s speeches.
The EU West is incapable of starting analog programs. The weak Eastern Europeans will soon look for a new warm nest.
The Balts and Poles will certainly have to go a separate way.
Russia ‘rejoining’ global trade – German think tank
Activity at the country’s major ports is now approaching pre-sanctions levels, according to the Kiel Trade Indicator
https://www.rt.com/business/582643-russia-rejoining-global-trade/
https://www.rt.com/russia/582655-russia-six-strikes-ukraine/
“… In a statement on Saturday, the ministry said that between September 2 and 9, Moscow conducted a total of six high-precision long-range group strikes on Ukrainian targets using both air- and sea-based assets as well as drones. …
The ministry went on to add that the long-range strikes disrupted Ukraine’s strategic signals intelligence efforts and undermined logistical support for Kiev’s troops fighting in Russia’s Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. …”
Hmmm! Sounds like Russia is already working on reducing the impact of US/NATO ISR support for Zelensky. It does not help that West can see where Russian forces are if the West lacks the means to communicate that information to Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces lack the fuel to move to the right places.
The most important to all:
No debts and no credits!
You are not free otherwise!
Take care!!
A very interesting interview with a senior Russian sniper. He claims there are foreign advisors (mercs and NATO personnel) in every frontline Uke unit. Headquarters are mostly staffed with NATO personnel as well as half the people in tank and artillery units. This explains how they’ve covered heavy personnel losses.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/npboVja1fi80/
Some comments on your Judge Nap interviews:
So glad to see that Karen Kwiatkowski looks like a real woman, not a plastic Barbie doll like Nancy Pelosi – way too much plastic surgery and Botox.
More importantly, it was an excellent discussion.
If you have informal chats with Judge Nap, here are two suggestions for future guests on his show:
Michael Scheuer
Paul Craig Roberts.
Scheuer may be too combustible,
and Roberts too old,
but otherwise those surely would produce an interesting discussion.
Did Scheuer have a reputation at the CIA?
(I know that was (and is) a massive organization.)
Never Scheuer. I think he is mentally unbalanced. Scheuer’s nick name at the Agency was “Charlie Manson.” Not making this up.
Two flubs from 1941: Barbarossa; Front line troops were screaming their heads off to Stalin, that the Germans were coming, Moscow’s spy in Berlin said same. Stalin was obsessed that Hitler was squeezing him for more stuff. Stalin’s intelligence people said it’s ok, the Germans haven’t concentrated their armour. Soviet reconaissance had simply missed the armour, all of it was on the border! Pearl Harbour; American & Brits had a joint intelligence room. Japan had only one year of fuel oil, so had to move. The joint intelligence room proclaimed that the Japanese would go straight for the oil, in the Dutch East Indies. Then the mobile fleet (4 carriers) disappeared!
Pearl Harbor wasn’t a “flub”. The book, “Day Of Deceit, the truth about FDR and Pearl Harbor” by Robert Stinnett lays out what happened. FDR wanted/needed to get the US involved in WW2 but the public was isolationist. In October, 1040, Germany, Italy and Japan signed the Tripartite Agreement, that an attack on one was an attack on all three. A week later, US Navy Commander Robert McCollum wrote his now-famous Eight Point Memo, and met with FDR. All 8 points were implemented, such as moving the Pacific Fleet to Hawaii, shutting down sales of scrap iron and East Timor oil to Japan, etc. Japan was cornered because it could not survive under those restrictions. The US Navy knew everything worthwhile about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Stinnett says naval code JN-25B was cracked in April 1941, not in early 1942 as per official claims. That’s just a detail. Every radio message had a plaintext “to” and “from”, so even if the contents were encrypted, traffic analysis told a lot. There were about 3600 JN-25B messages in 1941 between IJN warships. To this day. none of the decrypts have been de-classified. The IJN task force assembled over the summer of 1941 in a port in northern Japan. One of the lies is that the IJN observed radio silence. Stinnett says that as each warship and support vessel left harbor, they radioed their departure to the port commander. The support vessels, tankers and lighters, had a commercial code that the US had long decrypted. On the way to Pearl Harbor, there was a big storm, Nov. 27-30, and the attack fleet dispersed to avoid ship collisions. There was a great deal of radio traffic in both codes, as the fleet re-assembled after the storm. All this radio traffic was observed on the US Navy’s chain of radio monitoring stations stretching from the Aleutian Islands down to Panama. The British monitored this traffic from Hong Kong, and the Dutch did from Indonesia, according to Stinnett, although I don’t recall any archive entries to support that. The Japanese diplomatic code had been cracked continuously for years by the US Navy. One of the myths is that the US government didn’t decipher the “declaration of war” message to the Japanese embassy in Washington until it was too late, and anyway FDR was already at some social function in Washington. Stinnett tracked down some of the Navy radio operators who by then were in their 80’s. They told Stinneett everything they witnessed. They had been threatened to never reveal anything, and none of them had been called to testify at the various Congressional “investigations”.
The problem is that this became the most important “reason” why the US claimed they had to confront Soviet aggression and “sneakiness” in the Cold War. It was a lie with a great impact.
The book is widely available. ISBN: 0-7432-0129-9
NATO ISR vs Russian mastery of Maskirovka.
If I were a betting man, I would make the Russians hot favorites in this race.
If delusion thinking truly is as rampant in NATO as it appears to be at the higher levels, accurate ISR data will be misinterpreted to conform to the illusions. This will only increase the odds for successful deception.
When the Russians move, it will be a huge surprise because they will wait until they are satisfied they have successfully deceived NATO.
If Washington isn’t even considering the possibility of a sudden Ukrainian collapse then that is very, very concerning.
Because it means that when that collapse does happen then Washington will go into shock, and that increases the likelihood of panic within the halls of power. And nobody reacts to panic as rapidly as the neocons.
They will dictate how the White House responds to its own panic attack, and that’s not a good thing. Not. At. All.
I would be more reassured if the White House did already have a contingency plan – a Plan B, if you like – that is gathering dust on the shelf.
At least then the response to a Ukrainian collapse won’t be a panicked, knee-jerk reaction.
It may be an unrealist course of action. Even a delusional reaction, I wouldn’t be surprised.
But at least it will be a measured reaction, not a panicked reaction.
Because, let’s face it, a panicked reaction may well get us all killed.
“That experience, along with the evaporation of the Iraqi army in the face of the Islamic State group, led DIA to “over-correct” when judging how Ukraine would fare”
Finally. An admission that ‘Kyiv will fall within 2 days’ was a US, and NOT a Russian, prediction but the myth of ‘Putin thought Kyiv would fall in 2 days’, persists.
My big takeaways from the fighting in Ukraine are as follows:
Drones have definitely proven to be a gamechanger, in how battlefield recon is executed, how artillery spotting is now conducted, and inthemselves as weapons capable of taking out enemy resources and weapons systems.
The second takeaway is: mechanised forces as manouver elements are very nice to have, but the following is essential: good, well-trained and equipped infantry capable of carrying out good, old-fashioned infiltration tactics against enemy defensive positions, and: have the God of War (ie artillery) on your side.