The votes are in and Sleepy Joe Biden has gulped a giant shot of caffeine thanks to older black voters not keen to vote for a socialist or a homosexual or a faux Cherokee. But this is not Bernie Sander's Stalingrad. Bernie has not suffered a fatal blow. But I think the Democrat Party has.
Total turnout for the Democrats was up significantly–an additional 150,000 people voted compared to 2016. But you have to take this with a grain of salt. Thirty-eight percent of the folks at the Friday night Trump rally in Charleston were registered Democrats. Trump called on all his supporters to vote in the Democrat primary and help sow some chaos. We do not know if the increase in voter turnout was due to Republican participation.
What we do know for certain is that Bernie Sanders got a smaller percentage of the vote compared to 2016–19.9% in 2020, 26.2% in 2016. While he got 9000 more votes this time, it is highly likely that most of that came from Republicans wanting to mess with the Democrat primary.
That said, Bernie is the leader in the delegate hunt and is likely to remain atop the heap when the smoke clears from the battles on Super Tuesday (two days from now). But he will have a strong plurality, not a decisive majority.
The battle for the heart and soul of the Democrat party is now engaged. The so-called moderates (those who want to say please before confiscating your wealth and weapons) are sapping strength from each other. I fully anticipate that Joe Biden and former Republican Mikey "Money Bags" Bloomberg will score some delegates. Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren as well. But no one will run away with the lion's share and Bernie will still have more than the others.
In 2016, thanks to the leak of the DNC emails to Wikileaks, Americans learned that the Democrat hierarchy conspired to rob Bernie of any chance of winning the 2016 nomination. But the Democrats and media back then successfully diverted public attention from that stark fact by blaming the Russians and Donald Trump for the email heist. That was not true, but public attention followed the shiny Russian Nesting doll tale offered up by Democrat propaganda masters rather than confront the dirty truth that Bernie was robbed. In an information warfare campaign, truth is the first casualty.
The Democrat establishment's plan to deny Bernie the Presidential crown this go round is not a secret. What remains to be seen is whether or not Bernie supporters will roll over like submissive dogs or will they fight back and refuse to be denied? Either option is a recipe for months of turmoil and fighting among Democrats.
John Merryman says
Add to that the corona virus, the imploding market bubble, Turkey’s desire to draw Nato into a Mid-East war…. And it’s only March 1!
The only prediction I’d make for this year, is that it will be “interesting.”
My father, a Democrat, voted for Trump in the 2016 NH primary with the intention of sowing some chaos.
If Bernie is not really a Democrat (flag of convenience only), how many of his rabid supporters are even registered to vote in any party?. Not something anarchists typically do.
Jim Henely says
Sanders’ constituency is disproportionately 45 and under, many of whom voted in the 2016 primary. The memory of the last primary theft by the DNC, added onto another convention coup will have transformative consequences for the party.
Will the party insiders allow a Sander’s nomination, or will they follow the instructions of the deep-pocketed financial backers who view Sandes as a threat to their incomes. Nancy Pelosi recently remarked that she would be okay with a Sander’s nomination. Was she expressing a party platform, or was that the wine talking? If Sanders shows up at the convention as the leading delegate winner, but is denied the nomination, does that spawn a third party?
We are, indeed, living in very interesting times.
LA Times Sunday this morning has a big ad splashed across half a page – “A Conversation with Michelle Obama” in an LA Convention Center.
What a coincidence in timing. Right before Super Tuesday. People will pay money to listen to her? Or will Bloomberg buy up all the seats for the sheer value of sassy photo ops.
When will Mrs. Obama-Soetoro officially become the dark horse at the upcoming brokered DNC convention?
Who is staying in the race right now to be her unofficial stalking horse. Nobly rising to the moment during the brokered convention to release his/her delegates in favor of former FLOTUS Michelle Obama. My money is on Buttigeig.
PS: Now why would Obama’s former body man Reggie Love come out for Pete Buttgieg – is he Michelle Obama’s DNC stalking horse? https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/01/obamas-body-man-reggie-love-rallies-pete-buttigieg-supporters-after-losing-south-carolina/
different clue says
So your father voted for Trump in the 2016 NH primary to sow some chaos? ” How is that working out for him” . . . as Doctor Phil might say?
I have been flying a fabulous CT over on another site concerning Hillary Clinton as the eventual “Unity Candidate.” Add in Michelle Obama and we have not one, but two ex first ladies on the ticket!
“America Needs Two Mommies!” “Hillary/Michelle 2020!”
(I cannot ever see Hillary Clinton taking second place to anyone. Her ambition rivals that of Lady MacBeth; with similar outcomes, to boot. If I were a candidate who offers Hillary the Veep slot, I would certainly avoid going up in small aircraft.)
Agreed that this is the beginning of the end for the legacy Democrat Party. A reading of the history of the American Whig Party will be instructive.
Michelle Obama hates Hillary Clinton. They will not be able to pull this ticket off. More like a Michelle and Preachy Pete ticket. Demorcrats are convinced only Michelle “can bring us together”.
Timothy Hagios says
I see the DNC selecting a Biden/Warren ticket. Biden brings in the old guard and Warren checks the diversity box without carrying Clinton’s baggage.
IMO this is the worst possible ticket, since both strike me as people with serious mental disorders who would happily get us stuck in another war just for the fun of it.
Upstate NY'er says
What’s a bigger loser?
An anti-American Marxist or a ticket of a (polarizing) black female and a gay midget?
Or how about a short, divorced, Jewish billionaire from NYC, with the personality of an undertaker, who promises to take away your guns and your soda drink?
IMO, Super Tuesday is a big deal with 40% of the population voting. It seems under the banner of the “moderates” the party establishment (Clinton-Obama faction) and the Wall St neocon faction are now coalescing around Biden and possibly Bloomberg. Pete has dropped out. Likely Amy and Warren will drop out too after this coming week.
Can a dementia laden Biden revive his candidacy with a Harris or Abrams VP pick? Can Mike remain competitive with his billions on tap to spend?
How will Democrat primary voters align as the field narrows? Super Tuesday should be instructive.
Peter VE says
Regardless of how we get there, on Sunday November 8th, I expect to collect on my bet that Trump will be re-elected. I doubled down the day the House impeached him.
It’s about the numbers and superdelegates. The “reforms” in the DNC system following 2016 include a new rule that superdelegates, all 93 of them, cannot take part in the first round of voting. If there is no outright plurality, these 93 delegates, all of whom have stated no intention to give their votes to Bernie, will rule the day. The only candidate that might help Bernie is Warren if/if the math shows that whatever number of delegates she gets would give Bernie his plurality in the first round. Those superdelegates tell us a lot about our two-party system. At least one wealthy delegate is a major donor to Republican candidates. They largely represent the same corporate interests that ensure that neither party does anything dramatic to harm Wall Street or big industries. A look at the actual voting records of Democratic senators and house members reveals a lot that public posturing does not.
Democratic leaders have said that they would rather lose the election to Trump than to have the party taken over by progressives. The mainstream corporate Democrats may well get their way, but what happens to the party afterwards is the question.
Buttigieg dropped out this evening.
Watch what Buttigeig now does with his earned delegates?
1. Releases them to follow their own conscience.
2. Recommend they now support candidate XYZ
3. Hordes them until the DNC and uses them as bargaining chips
4. Coalesces them with other also-rans into a draft Michelle Obama movement – she will bring us together.
Was it just me but did Buttigieg sound refreshing at first, but very quickly became totally annoying. His imperious sneer now haunts this campaign experience.
Am Expat in Mindanao says
If I may, Wikipedia puts the number of Superdelegates 775, not 93.
Terence Gore says
Who the blank drops out while in 3rd 2 days before Super Tuesday?
Any self interested politician would at least let the vote happen and negotiate something out of it
Keith Harbaugh says
sundance offers a forecast for future developments from the Democratic establishment and the media
that is entirely consistent with Larry’s:
“Biden -vs- Bernie, The Race Begins…”, 2020-02-29
Note it was written on Saturday, before Buttigeig called it quits.
Pete reportedly had call with Obama and Biden and deal was struck. Watch him endorse Biden soon.
The Beaver says
So Pete and Klobuchar are out. The elites are manning that chess board.
Amy now endorsing Biden. Pete will follow. Obama begins these moves to back Biden. What will Mini Mike do after tomorrow?
The Obama-Clinton faction moving to upend Bernie. Watch North Carolina tomorrow. And of course the actual delegate count from California and Texas.
If the democrats were serious about the national popular vote bs they would have a national primary rather that one in every state. As to VP’s I’m looking forward to Biden-Hilary.
blue peacock says
My bet would be on Biden/Harris. Biden for the black votes and Harris for the white votes 🙂 They’re the perfect Obama choice setting the stage for Michelle 2024.
What would be the price for Bernie to back this ticket after he gets shafted at the convention?
Public pension funds were taking a huge hit since they are heavily invested in “corporate America. No, the stock market drop was not because of the corona virus. It was the growing threat of the Sander’s socialism virus.
CalPERS – the largest public pension fund in the world lost $15 billion dollars and they were already badly underfunded. Time for the Democrat party to close ranks, because public employee unions are their life blood and they don’t take kindly to these levels of their own pension fund losses.
Hence the squeeze on the also-rans to drop out, and coalesce behind Biden. They had no other choice after South Carolina.
How Warren intends to play out her final card remains to be seen. Assuming she wants to pick up a few more Super Tuesday delegates and act as a last minute power broker if she gets enough votes to make a difference.
Democrats now are obviously desperate to get within striking distance in case there is a SuperTuesday Bernie surge. Tomorrow will be very, very interesting to see how it lays and how it plays.
Kamala Harris adds no value to any ticket. She was not even going to win her own state as favorite daughter, which is why she dropped out early when she did – so she could meet the deadline to take her name off the Calif Super Tuesday ballot.
She did not want the embarrassment and risk her own Senate re-election. The more people saw Harris up close, the more her ratings sank. Even in her own state. Even SNL nailed her as drunk and evil.
Biden-Buttigeig makes more sense. But which up and coming Democrat wants to go down with Biden in 2020, and be branded as a loser. I don’t think anyone is clamoring to be his VP. It will be a pity choice – perhaps Warren?
Screechy Flo and Sleepy Joe.
Am Expat in Mandano, Thanks for correctly my misuse of the number 93, which I believe that is what Biden has gotten since his S.C. win. With Buttagieg out, who gets the delegates he had already picked up? And whatever pickings from Steyer? Or do they just go away?
It must have escaped your notice that all levels of state government in California have been controlled by democrats for years. Yves Smith at nakedcapitalism blog has been writing about Calpers mismanagement even longer.
Calpers hired a member of the totalitarian Chinese Communist Party as their CIO. How crazy can it get? Chinese communists running a massive US public pension fund.
Then there’s neoliberal Obama bringing his machine to bear backing Biden. Now we have the CDC at least 60 days after it has known about coronavirus not having test kits distributed around the country. The level of incompetence across the board is staggering.