The following article is written by Helmholtz Smith. You don’t know him. I do. This is a pen name. Enjoy.
All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near… Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.
Sun Tzu, Chapter 1
Most of the opinions aired in the Western media take for granted that the Russian operation in Ukraine is bogged down. Usually when we see someone confidently assert this, we find the assumption “I think everyone assumed that they were going to set Kyiv as their primary objective and their main effort…” That quotation is from Larry’s piece here and quotes one Joel Rayburn but can be found everywhere. The failure to take Kiev was a “defeat for the ages“, it led to casualties, bad morale and so on. It is the fundamental assumption – Moscow wanted to take Kiev quickly, failed to do so and has had to reconsider. It failed through overoptimism, incompetence, poor planning, bad logistics – just poor behavior altogether. “Overestimated” is the word.
That’s what the Americans do when they go to war. Lots of bombing, seize the capital, declare victory. Worked against flea-sized enemies in Panama City or St George’s but failed in Baghdad and Kabul. But the great strategists have always known that the principal object in war is “To conquer and destroy the armed power of the enemy… For only after defeating these can we pursue the other two objects [sources of strength, and public opinion].” Possession of territory does not give victory and the generals pontificating on the cable shows should have learned this after twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan.
To make the point in another way, let us imagine that the Ukrainian government had declared Kiev an “open city” and that no resistance would be offered. Would the Russians have occupied the city? Metropolitan Kiev had a population of two to three million in an area of about 300 square miles and the government had just handed out thousands of assault rifles and founded a cottage industry making Molotov cocktails. How many soldiers would Moscow have had to put into the city to keep it reasonably quiet? Certainly thousands, maybe tens of thousands and they would have faced continual attacks. And what would that have gained Moscow?
So, then, there are two reasons to suspect that conquering Kiev was not the Russian priority – destruction of the enemy’s forces was the real aim (“de-militarization” Putin would call it) and the occupation of a large and hostile city would have taken too many resources away from the main aim.
So what really was the purpose of the Kiev operation? What was the movement, the threat, the “40-mile column” and all the other things the “experts” obsessed about? I invite the reader to listen to this section of Jonathon Houses’ outstanding lecture on The Three Alibis.
Deception. The Soviets were probably the greatest masters of battlefield deception that there has ever been. I recommend David Glantz’s book for those who want to make a real study of it and for those who want a shorter introduction I suggest this essay (“one is awed by the magician’s illusions of objects disappearing and appearing”). Some in the West may remember D-Day’s ghost army but, as far as I know, this was the only time the Western Allies did deception on this scale. As the references above make clear, the Soviets did deception operations on this scale all the time – dummy vehicles, faked tank tracks, silent movement, lights moving at night, loudspeakers making engine noises, feint attacks, radio traffic, carefully encouraging the enemy to see what he wanted to see; as House says, they almost always fooled the Germans. And not just then – the 1939 attack at Khalkhin Gol stunned the Japanese – “we had no prior clue“. One may be certain that the Russian Army has inherited this talent.
Knowing this, what does the activity around Kiev look like now? An attempt to capture something that would not have advanced the stated aims of de-militarization and de-Nazification and, by soaking up large numbers of troops, actually retarded them? Or a deception tailor-made to fool Ukraine’s US/NATO puppet masters? One hand of the magician threatening Kiev to compel Ukrainian troops to guard it while the other degrades their ability to move to face the real threat. The magician knew how the US and NATO do war and revealed the shiny object sure to distract them. The Russian flank was secured by the threat (the other flank was secured by the threat of a seaborne invasion). This legerdemain kept the enemy from noticing what was really happening – the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s fuel and ammunition stocks, military organization and transportation ensuring that the main force stayed in place for its methodical destruction in phase 2.
Yes, there was the possibility that the threat to Kiev would make the Ukrainian government see reason. After all, there has never been a more preventable war than this one – had Kiev retained the neutrality provision of its July 1990 declaration of state sovereignty and adhered to the Minsk agreements, all would be quiet today. But a quick end was just a possibility – worth a try but not essential.
Putin’s stated aims are de-Nazification and de-militarization; Azov is trapped in a catacomb and the immobile Donbass-positioned force is being ground to bits by relentless artillery strikes (so much for the logistics deficiencies the “experts” went on about). No battle proceeds exactly as planned, but this one is moving in the intended direction.
The Kiev operation was a deception operation and a very successful one. And it continues to deceive.
and those who still insisted russia failed to take kiev in 3 days , only to show off their own ignorance on military history .. I guess the western media love to spread this nonsense because the western population in majority have total ignorance or care about foreign issues and prefer to believe what they been told by MSM.
hey if these sheeps still believe russiagate nonsense and think hunter biden laptop is fake russian psyop , then how easy is the job for western propaganda officers.. after years of having the sheep softened into stupor and ignorance.
i wonder if these sheep will bleat in protest when their chickenhawk govt reenact military draft to fight wars in ukraine or eastern europe because ‘we have to support democracy’ and ‘sending you boys over there is the price govt willing to pay’ nonsense
the LOUDEST war junkie and neocon warmonger supporters are those who will never go to battlefield and bleed
Hopefully the Russians are carefully watching and will expose the false flag chemical attack the psychos are telegraphing hard.
In a recent interview, Pepe Escobar suggested that senior NATO advisors may be trapped with Azov in the Mariupol steel plant. Anyone hear a similar thing?
https://youtu.be/5mlFxcVItnQ
Check out around 40:40
Capture of Canadian General???
https://thesaker.is/war-realities-top-gun-romantics-mercenaries-the-reality-of-a-wall-socket/
This has been running around the rumor mill for a while. There have been reports of high value targets speaking “foreign” languages, and a few of what looked like rescue attempts by helicopter that failed. The rescue tries appeared to be desperate, which suggests high value rescues.
Where are the Russian airborne forces? Did they or did they not get shot up badly in the opening days of the war near Kiev?
They are keeping the troops in reserve. Using artillery and air strikes to destroy the strongpoints.
not this nonsense again from kiev propaganda mill , they are fine and not ‘destroyed’ or ‘decimateed’.
Maskirovka………
Thanks. This all makes sense and I have read David Glantz’s book; it is a great read! The Russian General Staff are the heirs to Kutuzov with his strategy of explicitly allowing Napoleon to enter Moscow, knowing it would do him no good. That does not sound like people who would themselves fixate on capturing Kiev.
Far too many western politicians seem to be on an ego trip to reenact our past glories in some form of third rate parody: Boris Johnson is slated to make a speech today to the Ukrainian parliament where he will say this is their “finest hour”. Our politicians are not even talented enough to create their own phrases. Their continued unwillingness to face reality seems a modern day western elite trait that applies to many other areas of life too.
I really doubt that any Nato country genuinely believed Russia was going for Kiev (at least not for more than a week).
Or that Ukraine has ever had a winning hope in this operation.
They have just been about creating a situation where Ukraine doesn’t have a hope of losing gracefully or saving lives. Russia’s “failure” is like Nato’s claim to be supplying heavy artillery beyond the Dnieper. A huge support in forcing Zelensky and Ukrainians to fight to the last Ukrainian and leave Syria/Libya/Iraq levels of chaos in what should be a stable country post war.
This was the Obama/HRC/Biden/Nuland goal back in 2012 and even a period of US control wasn’t going to change it.
‘Russia expected to take Kiev in 4 days’.
The only people I recall saying this were the celebrity Generals on FOX and CNN. No one quoted Russians saying this. I bet the Russians took a swing at Kiev just in case they crumbled but this was never their main objective.
The claim that Ukraine destroyed Russian paratroopers at an airport never smelled right to me. If it was true, they would have shown their bodies, names, and rank. It would be as if Saddam took out Seal Team 6 but never displayed them. This is why I do not believe the story about Ukraine ‘taking out’ a Wagner hit squad that was trying to assassinate Zelensky. Where the photos and names, did they evaporate?
Russia may excel at military deception but the U.S. and Ukraine excel in information warfare designed for the locals.
Chris Chuba,
You no doubt have noticed that people making wild off the cuff pro-UKR claims about the situation never have any evidence to support what they are spewing. Even when resolutely pressed to provide the evidence for their claims, they just change the subject. They’re like unaimed spray and pray verbal machine guns. They think they’re firing firing armor piercing BS, but it is obvious to anyone who doesn’t have a TV for a brain that they’re shooting blanks.
You and I are both aware of people like this on a forum that once engaged in thoughtful discussions. Glad to see you are using your own brain to figure things out and not blindly accepting what alleged “experts” are saying. Where would these self-proclaimed experts even obtain the info that would lead them to make such firm statements? Especially the retired ones.
the so called experts or retired expert like the ex generals on MSM are full on board with pushing the narrative train.
the ‘expert’ and ‘veteran’ who own blogs also turned from anti neocon into a full on bootlicker for neocon once the war start , pushing nonsense statement like ‘honorable ukrainian soldiers’ ‘no nazi in ukraine’ ‘russia weak and incompetent’ while without a single shred of shame used sources from UK tabloids and ISW
when good people posted their opinion on this obvious IO , the blog owner insult and then ban them.
For me these kind of ppl are the worst , those generals on MSM TV shows are known quantity as empire lackeys , but the bloggers who pretend to be anti neocon suddenly turned 180 degrees and use their site as IO site spreading disinfo thats worse and also cowardly because he ban ppl outright
Seeing all things RT being suppressed. Just another indication of heroic efforts. “Threads” coming to a junction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGvO8b-tiaM
Tucker: This is why Democrats are taking us to war with Russia
Incredible work sir, tip of the hat in your direction…
These tactics go back to the time of the Bible: Judges Chapter 7, 16-22.
Great piece. Maskirovka has been a staple of Russian military doctrine since the 1920s, and it’s been mostly effective.
One can’t but wonder why western armies don’t use it more. The Brits have been quite successful with it during WWII (Operation Fortitude, Operation Mincemeat, Operation Bertram, Operation Waterfall, the Double Cross System…), but seem to have given up on it.
I can’t think of any major western military action, after WWII, using deception on that scale (but I could be wrong OFC).
Westerners are masters of propaganda (i.e. deceiving the civilians) but seem to forget the enemy army. Russians appear to do the opposite.
Merci mille fois to our mystery writer…for filling us in too on great Russian culture and intellectualism before Christia Freeland and the Canadian Fourth Reich clamped down on real journalism! Heil Freeland das ist nicht frei…
When one reads the original correspondence between 3 allied leaders there was a great sense of urgency in Stalin’s pleas to open the 2-d front. As the war continues the tone of the correspondence gradually changed from sounding like pleas of a poor relative to the one of an equal partner. And toward the war’s end he sound as a strong and proud leader of the great and victorious nation.
The British used to be pretty good at deception operations well into the 70s but I think they lost their skills sometime in the budget cut backs of the 90s.
They used deception operations throughout the WD against Rommel and I wrote a piece on the Suez campaign about ten years ago. How does one hide an invasion force of tens of thousands of men and multiple carrier battle groups in the 1950s…
Oh and now I remember my other point that I attended Connections conference in 2019 and the theme of it was War in the Mega Cities. Many ideas, but my suggestion was that armies would by pass them and defeat enemy forces elsewhere and engage in siege combat.
The reply I got was something. “You might be entirely right about the fact that people wont fight in the cities. But I got to sell a general a tank.”