Two days after Ukraine’s Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, claimed that Russia is almost out of precision missiles, Russia hit Ukraine again with a massive barrage of missiles. I am beginning to think that Russian planners are sitting back and waiting for a stupid statement like this from an Ukrainian or Western official before giving the go order for a new strike.
Russia has enough firepower for only three or four more missile barrages of the kind that have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Kyiv’s top defense official said. . . .
The apparent depletion of Moscow’s rocket stock follows a sustained series of debilitating salvos against Ukraine’s electricity grid, power plants and substations since October, after Russian President Vladimir Putin shifted his assault to deliberately target energy infrastructure.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-is-running-out-of-missiles-ukraine-security-chief-says
Time for my favorite Princess Bride clip. I don’t think Ukrainian officials understand the meaning of the term, “running out of missiles.” It is simply inconceivable.
The Russian Ministry of Defense does not appeared at all worried about its ability of keep shredding Ukraine’s infrastructure and military formations with missiles. It reported today (Saturday) on the results of its Friday barrage:
On Friday, 16 December, Ukraine’s military command, defence and industrial complex systems and the energy facilities supporting them were hit with a massive strike by long-range, airborne and sea-based precision weapons. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.
◻️The strike prevented the transfer of foreign-made weapons and ammunition, blocked the movement of reserves to combat areas, and halted Ukraine’s defence enterprises producing and repairing weapons, military equipment and ammunition. In the course of repelling the strike by Ukrainian and Western air defence systems, a significant resource was expended on deliberately launched decoys.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/5447
Brian Berletic does a nice job of evaluating the latest Russian bombing and the growing concern of Ukrainian officials:
Lastly, Clayton Morris of The Redacted had a great chat with Doug MacGregor. The key take away comes at the end, when Doug spells out why he thinks Russia, with the help of Belarus, will attack from the north.
LJ , do you know what happen to matt drudge ? his Drudge Report news aggregator used to be conservative oriented but he now become boot licker of the biden admin and democrats. It used to be rare to see links of british tabloid rags on his news aggregator but nowadays he posted british tabloid rags practically highlited in the front page with fake news regarding russian SMO..
Perhaps he received, you know, one of those visits where “things” were explained.
What sort of things, one may innocently enquire?
Oh – One might have an unfortunate accident. Could happen to anyone, really.
Why take unneeded risks? Why aggravate all the important people that you’ll never meet, even in The Afterlife, as they still go to the best places.
Something else Matt would not run. Others do . . . https://les7eb.substack.com
Globohomos routinely ‘buy’ brands in order to stabilize the narrative or neutralize a competitor by destroying them if needed.
He sold out. Literally. Some group bought him out.
Like Larry says. He sold to a Google affiliated company called Granite Cubed. Not the same management. I still stop by there, but it is like CNN now. I get more credible real news off Twitter. Ain’t that a hoot. There is a concerted effort to control all media. Musk is a good show of this. I have no idea what that loon is doing. But I do know he is getting himself in the gunsights. He will either sell Twitter, put it back under FBI control, or be arrested on a kiddie porn sting.
Or…Melon Husk is just going to turn Twitter into a limited hangout where gatekeeper propaganda is actively disseminated, both to identify dangerous freethinkers (who would otherwise fly under the surveillance radar) and to camouflage real causes and intents. I have thought from the start that if Melon Husk was for real they’d never have let him purchase any social media.
You can buy things here. It’s just hard to keep them.
EM Is a nothing more than a yyyuuuuggge distraction, like the clowns in a circus. What’s coming is massively anti God/human. I’m starting to think Trump is a yyuuuge distraction as well.
rense.com is a good way to keep track of the news. very easy to navigate.
They’ve got something on him and are basically blackmailing the guy – that’s my bet. His change of direction was too sudden to be normal
Matt is fairly reclusive but he is gay. He likes his privacy.
I believe those who follow this site are tolerant( who gives a s&&& people) but Matt may not want some stuff to be published. We know the Hillary/obama types are brutal.
I think Musk is bipolar, like certifiable – brilliant at his peak, but vacillating on a regular basis. I agree that he’s being blackmailed – he was on the log of Lolita express, and who knows what/where else. Something could be going on with his multi kids – could be with a woke one who changed gender, someone might get a hold on Musk through the kids. But it’s the same always pattern with Musk – vascillating: the satellites for Azov, then peace in Ukraine agreement, refusing to provide his satellites for free, back to free of charge satellites, bidding to buy Twitter, refusing to buy Twitter, then Twitter files , and while twitting not to believe if he commits suicide, and continue banning anti-war Twitters, and who knows what else.
I don’t see him on the manifest list. https://archive.org/details/EpsteinFlightLogsLolitaExpress/Epstein%20Flight%20Logs-%20Lolita%20Express/
I think paying for the satellites is protection money from the current government. He flips flops when they make it clear what his real choices are. He’s not hawk so I’m sure he’d like to just see the killing stop.
TMP – that’s what I saw with Musk.
https://ppempire.com/blog/who-flew-on-jeffrey-epsteins-lolita-express-plane-full-list-of-people-named/
Who was it that said, “behind every economic empire, there is a criminal one under the surface” or something to that effect?
Both he and Trump are loose cannons. I’m surprised they’re not directing Ukraine’s artillery attacks.
If I remember correctly he sold it back in 2019
Follow the money…..
Matt said years ago that it was getting impossible to say anything. Much like the death of comedy the “woke” mob has neither intellect nor a sense of humor. He sold his site shortly thereafter
He sold the content and rights to a leftist org some time ago, and was contractually obliged to keep silent about it.
If true, this sounds like: you have a choice between Lead and Gold.
Speaking of tabloids, the US and the UK are up to their eyebrows in BS, illustrated by the stories headlining the Drudge Report. Pres. Putin’s days are numbered before a coup takes him out. I would think he would be around when the West breaks apart.
Putin may be singing with Tony Bennett, “O, I wanna be around, to pick up the pieces.”
Matt Drudge sold his website to a third party without clearly (if ever) announcing that on his website and he retired. Clearly some pro establishment person(s) took over the website and it became just as low quality as the other rags.
LJ, what’s going on with turcopolier.com? They seem to have gone all in on media narrative that the Ruskies are failing and will lose. The objective analysis I used to read there seems to be gone.
Pat is old and no longer possessed of his keen mind. Sad.
I happened upon SST around 2015 when I was searching for information on the Syrian war and was glad to have found it. Not a streamlined particular version but an actual, often contentious debate*. In early March of 22 something happened and the committee split for reasons that are not entirely clear to me. My explanation so far is that Col. Lang decided that the war in Ukraine is actually aligned with US policy/interests and he therefore feels obliged to support it. My country right or wrong and such, with the setting right of the wrongs at some later date.
Frustratingly, the loss of debate leaves me less informed than desirable as both you and Mr. Martyanov find it unnecessary to put your reasoning into writing, leaving me in a constant “too soon to tell”- loop. That said, thank you for your work!
*I might have used the word ‘discourse’, but do not want to unduly trigger anybody.
I still stop by there every day though it’s just out of curiosity.
Say, are you related to the famous Lance Corporal Shmuckatelli, a friend of Lance Corporal Benotz (sp…?)?
Larry, do you think someone whispered sweet nothings into the colonel’s ear, through the auspices of TTG, or a well-placed commenter? Also, the warrior TTG should be well into his second tour in the Bakhmut area, his wife’s useless pleadings for world peace notwithstanding. Boy Howdy, I’m a genuine pessimist, but I could never have foreseen the rapidity of his site’s turnaround. Any comments from Larry’s peanut gallery would be welcome.
Nothing to add other than he dropped several people who had full or partial write privileges almost immediately after Feb 24th. Looked like he went to a war time footing and could risk dissent in the ranks. Anything else would be speculation on my part.
I will say that the forum as it is exhibits contempt for the readers and the American people. It makes PL appear to be exactly the same kind of person he stood against in his early writings.
“couldn’t risk”
Yes, I agree with your interpretation. I did not have writing privileges, nor did I seek them, not having the time. However, I was canned in an unusual manner, in that he did not do it publically in the “You’re banned” manner, he just deleted all my comments. I don’t mind not commenting since it is his site, his realm, and it came before February 24th. All in all, it was done in a chickenshit fashion. A pity that the Ukraine imbroglio turned out the way it did but “Ukrainia delenda est” IMHO.
Here’s the original blog archive of fond memory.
https://turcopolier.com/
I wrote to Pat on a post of his where he detailed a Ukrainian attack on wounded soldiers in a hospital. I said you have just reported a clearly defined war crime by the Ukrainians without pointing that fact out.His answer was he knew someone would mention it in comments so he didnt bother to highlight that fact himself.
Yet another case of implausible deniability.
Drudge sold out about four years ago! The new owners are definitely woke!
Doug informs us a patriot missile goes for from 3 to 6 million each.
No wonder the convivial host nearly choked.
Is this some kind of racket?
As General Smedley Butler said; “War is a racket”
Thank you General Smedley Butler. It is a racket.
My great grandfather fought in the siege of Peking as well. British. The thin red line.
Australian now.
Maybe they met . They would have been young.
To get bogged down in the swamp of Eastern Europe is folly. The people don’t care : how can we?
LJ, why bother with an offensive, if Russia is achieving its objectives of destroying Ukrainian forces in the east while at the same time inflicting more pain on Ukraine with its drones and missile attacks?
Russia must also understand that massing forces is a perilous endeavor when US satellites and sensors can see large formations massing for an offensive and target them. Not to mention communication intercepts by the US to determine the timing of operations.
“Russia must also understand that massing forces is a perilous endeavor when US satellites and sensors can see large formations massing for an offensive and target them.”
Target them with what? The horror for the folks on the American end of intercepts and ISR is, they can’t do a thing about it.
Russia could take out those satellites anyt time they choose, that they have not meanss that they do not consider them much of a threat
Russia has developed equipment to detect Starlink.
❗️Russia has created a complex “Borshchevik” for hunting Starlink terminals
In Russia, tests of the mobile complex “Borshchevik”, designed to detect Starlink terminals, are being completed. It was developed by the private company Sestroretsk Arms Plant.
The Borshchevik mobile direction finding complex can detect the location of Starlink terminals at a distance of up to 10 kilometers with an accuracy of 60 meters.
The complex can be installed on a car chassis, which makes it convenient to use on the front line.
Recall that the Starlink satellite Internet system plays an important role in providing communications and control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Failures in its work, as the Western media testified earlier, quickly affect the combat capability of the Ukrainian army
Going on an offensive operation is a much different concept… like Macgregor says, we’re in an era where we can see each other’s operations and movement.. if defenses are well fortified, the working hypotheses is that the attacker will suffer much higher casualties.
I can’t help but think that this Ukraine experience is very much just a testing ground for the US military-ind complex, which will in turn sell the new equipment to European countries to re-stock their armaments. It would also be the US’ ticket to get out of the recession.
If the Russophobia continues and these crazy US/EU politicians remain in charge, which I think it will- then the next conflict will be quite ugly because of the armaments on both sides.
The Europeans and the Ukrainians have to realize that reality and truth are shared ideas/concepts- the Russians’ viewpoint cannot be excluded. Secondly, their voters’ practical interests must carry heavier weightage. Until then, they will be manipulated endlessly by other forces.
I think it’s the other way around – Ukraine is a testing ground for Russia to test NATO, run them out of munitions, and dry up their supply lines while simultaneously destroying the western economies. Why do I say that? Simple. That’s exactly what’s happening. Either it’s by design on Russia’s part, or a fantastic example of serendipity. I leaning to think it’s Russian planning, exposing the ineptitude of NATO and the basic weakness of the military industrial complex – it’s about profits not about the best military for the buck. Generally a corrupt system can’t sustain itself against one that is both not corrupt and well-prepared.
I think the initial operation was more of an exploratory venture to feel out how NATO would/could respond, and now that their weaknesses have been exposed, we’re about to see the main event. It will probably be fairly quick and brutal. I guess we’ll see fairly soon.
i agree it is the other way round.the russian people as a whole are chess players.russia could have continued the war 5 years ago.they were not prepared and they knew it.they went to work getting prepared .by the end of 2021 they were ready militarily,economicaly,socially,and with foriegn relations.there is no serendipity here.it too perfect for luck.winning chess players are not always lucky.they are always skillful.
Larry, I’m green glass, not that bright, but eventually the light shines through. It occurred to me tonight with the blurb here about Drudge folding up the tent, we’re in the middle of another revolution in media. Drudge came in with ABC radio shows on Sunday nights in the mid-late 90s and pestered the Clintons with his coverage of Monica Lewinski with drudgereport. Going back a bit, Wolf Blitzer, worldwide comms with CNN during desert storm, a communications/news cycle revolution. Cable news, 24/7, the 1990-era. Prior to that, broadcast television, Nixon/Kennedy, then Cuban missile crisis, Vietnam, the three alphabet networks on TV. Thirty years further on, post-CNN, today, the networks taken over by what we lovingly refer to as the Deep State, we turn to the web with a whole new variety of coverage. That would be Unz, Andrei Martyanov, the Saker, MacGregor, Escobar, Mercouris and a half dozen others, many, many others, including oh by the way, YOU, Larry, not to shine sunshine up your bloomers.
All this is remarkable. The Deep State is once again thwarted in their attempts to cover up their misdeeds. People who actually WANT the truth have an entirely new path to coverage on Deep State fuckups. A 60 year cycle going back to the beginnings of television, then cable and now with a new cycle, a third cycle that includes all of you guys. All you cats should feel pretty good that you’ve collectively started a new revolution in truth telling.
Question is, why do they allow it, not to mention comments contrary to their fuckups? Anywho, thanks to all-‘o-yez.
The original purpose of the government’s intel agencies was about information gathering and analyzing.
For at least the last decade it has transformed into information manipulating, manufacturing, and especially controlling. Essentially lies. I.e., they are on #TeamDevil
I think the government in the US has to appear to believe in free speech to some extent. The only suppression weapon they have that can be used openly is to allege that some speech is dangerous. That was the game with the Covid, but I don’t think they can run that play on people discussing the realities of the war in Ukraine.
I don’t think there is much they can do about the web, Jim. www was a military construct to make communications impossible to break. So I email you and there are a million options for the message to travel from sender to recipient. And to be received within seconds. So a server’s content set-up in a non western country will still be able to be accessed by folk in a Western country. Also I think Berners-Lee, the father/owner of www, gave it to the world. I’m sure the Deep State et al are desperate to silence access to the truth. free speech etc. It is amazing to have your feelings expressed by such authority’s as Larry’s. A real privilege, for which I am very thankful.
A man who knows the situation in Ukraine said that this Danilov is an ideologue of the Kiev junta and the commander of the regime. A very dangerous man, three levels above Zelenski and Zalužni when it comes to Russophobia. So what LJ says that the Russians are targeting after Danilov’s announcement makes a lot of sense.
“Russia has enough firepower for only three or four more missile barrages of the kind that have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure … ”
Well, even if this were true, Russia could knock out the entire Ukraine grid more or less permanently, with any one of the – however remaining – barrages they have left in their quiver.
Obliterate 6 or 7 substations is all that it would take. 50 missiles, 50 drones, 50 decoys. Easy-peasy. Isn’t that fascinating to think about?
Why haven’t they done it? Beats me. The two most prevalent theories as to why they haven’t seem to be; one, the Russians are exceedingly nice people, so when they crank up the pain dail, they only like to turn it to 20 to 50% range, and then keep it there, and two, unless Sovereign China gets involved in the rebuild, no privatized Western nation, including Russia, has the ability to quickly replace the substations after they’ve been destroyed, and as a result, Ukraine would be plunged into total darkness for … a very long time.
A very long time meaning, possibly forever, as who would really have the motivation to restore the Ukraine grid to its former glory, assuming someone had the capabilities, once its been truly shattered? Certainly the Ukraine people don’t seem to give a shit about it one way or the other, so why should anyone else?
My point is, Russia can end this war anytime they want with one missile salvo. They don’t have to go “nuclear,” they don’t have to outproduce the West in the production of artillery shells, so as to grind down the enemy Verdun style, or even launch multiple Deep Battle winter offensives, to swiftly put an end to this conflict.
They can do it tomorrow.
So all this talk of missiles and shells, and which side going to run out first, is irrelevant.
What a weird, weird existential war to death this is.
Note: What I would like to know, has nothing to do with shells and missiles. Did the Russians enter this war without any rockets for their tubed artillery? Are those Grad and Tos systems empty, because it sure as hell seems like it.
I mean, if by some strange confluence of factors, an artillery battle should actually break out in the 21st century, and then rage on for months, the last thing I expected to see, was shelling.
It just never occurred to me that the participants would prefer to duke it out across a static no-man’s land with museum pieces. I thought they would leave all that crap behind, and only take their advanced rocket systems to the battlefield.
But, if nothing else, this has been a war of surprises.
My take on events is that Russia is acting like an angry father against his insolent oldest son, Ukraine. He’s now forced to give him a spanking beat down that he’ll remember for a very very long time. One that will change his miscreant ways forever. This recently-published Russian cartoon uploaded on Twitter, translated into English and divulged in the Western press through an independent media source, Hal Turner Radio, explains it best. I’ll leave the link with the published Twitter feed.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/very-first-unconscious-pig-episode-translated
I agree and I think in the end the Ukrainians will realize that Russia is not their enemy.
Ukraine is resource rich with a hard working population yet are dirt poor. Mainly becuise the west strip mines the wealth, the oligarchs tae a massive share ()with of course (10% for The Big Guy) while the people have a low stahdard of living.
By all rights the Ukrainian people should be enjoyig the wealth of their county yet are not.
Once Russia clears out the parasites and the western puppets I am confideent the Ukrainians will be way better off. It is sad and unnecessary that they had to pay such a terrible price in lives of their young men, which was of course wholly unnecessary. The western supporters of this war will have a very big Karma bill to pay and it looks like there will be no escaping that.
Thanks for making me spit out my coffee. Too funny and to the point.
Most welcome!!!
Russia is doing exactly what they want to do. They simply make EU/Nato pay a very, very high price for their wrong-doing. Why end all of this quickly, when you can make the backers of Ukraine commit economic and financial suicide? Russian leadership quickly adapts to any situation. They were the first ones with a working and save vaccine when covid was announced a “pandemic”. They needed around 4 weeks to fend off the financial attack on their currency, stabilizing it at a better exchange rate then before the breakout of the conflict. The list goes on. Look how much money they made selling their resources to their “enemies” at premium prices. They still do. Germany is lucky they still can get some gas. Otherwise the breakdown of their economy would have been more visible. They sill are doomed to a economic and financial disaster. German industry lost their competitiveness overnight when they shot themselves in the face about their long and stable energy supplies. That era is now finally over.
As always Russia thinks and acts strategic, while the others act based on their own short-sided butt-hurt.
“Did the Russians enter this war without any rockets for their tubed artillery? Are those Grad and Tos systems empty”
One needs to do the military calculus. What is the cost of Grad/Tos rockets, vs 152mm shells, vs mortar rounds? What is the value/type of the target? What weapon will destroy the target at least cost? What weapon system do I have at my disposal?
A Grad can launch 40 rockets in 20 seconds with ranges varying depending on the model of rocket, generally around 20km, max 40. TOS-1A fire a salvo of 24 missiles in 6 seconds with max range of 6km. These are good area denial weapons useful against mass formations eg, the enemy are preparing an attack.
Artillery, is a precision weapon that can be used en masse for area denial. I expect that 152mm artillery shells are cheaper to produce than Grad or TOS rockets. There’s also the rate of fire and length of barrage to consider. A TOS reloader carries two salvos worth of ammo. I expect a truck load of 152mm shells would keep the crew busy all day.
Delivery of precision missiles by air (helicopters, jet aircraft) is expensive (fuel, ordnance, maintenance) and high risk – the other guys have SAMs and they shoot back.
The Ukrainian forces are mostly on the defensive in fortified positions (trenches, gun emplacements, buildings). These are static targets ideally suited to artillery. The most cost effective is mortar teams, but they’ve got to be fairly close, so high risk. Next least-cost will be the guns.
It may seem olde-world in an era of shock & awe, but the calculus and methods developed 104 years ago are still applicable today.
Considering the Patriot system, the calculus is complicated. Whilst the value of a $3m Patriot missile vs $30k drone seems grossly ineffective, one must consider the value of the target being protected. Still, if Ukraine were shopping for air-defense systems that they actually have to pay for, I’m sure they’d be looking for something that’s better value for money, say, S-300 systems?
“Still, if Ukraine were shopping for air-defense systems that they actually have to pay for, ”
You don’t want that idea to get around, college boy.
Lol!
“It may seem olde-world in an era of shock & awe, but the calculus and methods developed 104 years ago are still applicable today.”
The calculus for this type of war goes back even further than that I would guess. For instance, Henry J. Hunt, in command of the Union artillery at Gettysburg, knew on the night of the second day, that if Lee chose to attack the Union center in the morn, a thing he expected, his cannon would have time to fire three salvos of horizontal solid shot, and those three salvos would be all that was required to render the charge useless, regardless of its size.
The rest, the cannister, the close range musket fire, the clubbing and biting and gouging of the eyes, that would inevitably follow, would represent at best, only the denouement phase.
Looking at the ground in fading light, he considered the math as simple, and he looked forward to the next days proceedings, he was an artilleryman afterall, his only disappointment, that many of the gunners on the other side were his former students, and it troubled him that the math for these type of engagements was still escaping them.
“What weapon will destroy the target at least cost?”
Indeed. I keep saying the Russians are tying to get out this on the cheap, and the Ukraine Army continues to oblige them.
I have nothing but contempt for this army, and not just because it is filled with Nazis. I consider their operational performance up until this point pathetic, and I believe when; or more likely, if objective histories are ever to come out of this conflict, this Ukraine Army will go down as one of the worst in the history of organized warfare.
“Russia has enough firepower for only three or four more missile barrages of the kind that have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure … ”
Maybe true, maybe not, but they are sending three or four barrages a month and it appears that much of what is sent each time has been manufactured in the previous two months. If so, they can likely keep this up indefinitely.
“Well, even if this were true, Russia could knock out the entire Ukraine grid more or less permanently, with any one of the – however remaining – barrages they have left in their quiver.
Obliterate 6 or 7 substations is all that it would take. 50 missiles, 50 drones, 50 decoys. Easy-peasy. Isn’t that fascinating to think about?”
Yes. It might be more than 6 or 7, but, as you suggest, they could do it whenever they want to. I suspect this is because the various possible NATO responses to a Ukraine collapse are contingencies they have to do a a bit more prepping for.
“It might be more than 6 or 7 … ”
Or it might take less. It’s hard to find information on grids and their vulnerabilities, but I did read an article recently that stated if the US lost just 9 substations, the entire country could be without power for weeks, and possibly much longer.
It didn’t seem like the article was coming at the situation from a doomer perspective, if anything is was a “don’t worry, we are resilient!” type of piece, so I based my numbers on that, and on a comment posted in here I believe, that stated Ukraine has only 6 major substations, and if you take them out, the country reverts to the stone age instantly.
” … various possible NATO responses to a Ukraine collapse are contingencies” … the Russians … “have to do a a bit more prepping for.”
Agree. That is the most logical explanation as to why this grid yet lives.
” … it appears that much of what is sent each time has been manufactured in the previous two months. If so, they can likely keep this up indefinitely.”
An excellent point btw.
“ Russia has enough firepower for only three or four more missile barrages of the kind that have devastated Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Kyiv’s top defense official said. . . .”
Apparently the Financial Times is now into comedy?
Can’t help but love when someone uses the princess bride to make a point. Priceless! Bravo:)
The RF is not running out of ammo/people/morale ANYTIME soon. NATO and Ukraine sure seem to be though. The RF won this civilization war as soon as they called bs in syria(actually had the back of their friend, imagine that?) and continued on with Crimea(without firing a shot!) then Ukraine. They are on the side of the righteous. A long way still to go, but they are in control. Recommend people freshen up on their Bible. Going to get darker before the light of the good penetrates through all this bs.
The number of people seeing this is growing daily. Been a long few decades. Longer for many others, but it’s happening…
My guess is that the Russians are trying to get Ukros back to the Dark Ages where they belong, but the power grid has too much redundancy built in, and Ukronazistan being the shithole that it is was using the grid with maximum inefficiency until now.
I have a different guesstimate. I suspect they can take out the whole of the Ukraine grid whenever they want. However, that would leave a massive humanitarian crisis (millions freezing to death in place, or on the roads) for which they would be considered both responsible and forced to rescue, while still fighting a war.
I think they have been attempting to encourage a mass exit from Ukraine as well as weaken the Zelensky regime’s fighting ability while leaving enough power for people to get out. Cut all the power and in current weather very few would make it to the border. It’s a balance to be managed.
There is one bad effect with the internet: All together, it seems to spread more lies than truth. Why is this coming? Because some people like to have others listen to them, and simply are not responsible for what will be the outcome of their words.
In brief, people are story tellers, and only very few are real scientists.
With the war in Ukraine, the internet is the platform for storytelling.
When somebody tells me something, I ask: Where did you get this message from?
Here: How can you know about the Russian rocket stock? Is your father working there?
In fact, much more is said than what we can know.
Russia will not inform us with webcams about their rocket production output. Neither will the USA.
So, we are walking through fog, and some shout loudly where we should go to.
Talking heads: We re on the road to nowhere….
All together, it seems to spread more lies than truth.”
That is one of its purposes for the inept, whilst some others aid silences which others “fill” with their interpretations.
” We’ re on the road to nowhere”
Most but not all, facilitating minimising blowback on the road to nowhere as a function of interpretation/seems that nowhere is a linear modified “status quo”, simultaneously facilitating vectors of transcendence to others.
“So, we are walking through fog, and some shout loudly where we should go to.”
In attempted emulation of hope and tempo as informed Mr. Stangl and his associates’ restructuring of Treblinka in 1942 without outlining details to the “stuk”, who often avoid taking the bull by the tail and facing the situation by resorting to comfort blankets of many colours and togs, on the road to heaven (Himmelweg).
Can’t blame the bloke. At least he put on a suit and tie.
The US has been sidling up to the most corrupt country in Europe since 2014.
More American exceptionalism.
It’s not since 2014. US has been supporting Banderites (and others) since 1945, as a tool against Soviet Union. After the end of Cold War they became tool against Russia, and it took them some time to completly take power. US did not side with the most corrupt country in Europe, but worked on this shitshow for a long time.
Its a terrible thing, but the the threat of communism seemed even worse.
In SE Asia my country , Australia, supported successful US and British efforts against communism in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Failed in Vietnam though that was only apparently a civil war. Though many recent immigrants from Vietnam do seem sympathetic to communism.
The country was aware the Mercedes Star and Germany got away with a lot and in ten short years Australia would be trading with hated Japan. Their friends paid for it in blood.
But it was good for their children and for the country…so they were told.
The threat of communism was a lie used to mask fear of Russians and Chinese becoming too powerful. USA empire had a fear that it’s hegemony could be threatened by those two emerging powers, and tried to prevent things that we see happening today. It’s not about communism/socialism/capitalism/whateverism, but about big empires fighting each other for supremacy, just like it always was. I am from Eastern Europe, and have been unlucky enough to experience all the ‘isms in real life. Anyone that believes in British “efforts” around the World being anything but imperialism, should contact me in regards of a bridge I have for sale.
no, the threat of communism was about the centralization of power and the loss of freedom. you are from eastern europe yet can’t see this.
Can you sell me a bridge ? Twenty thousand British sailors gave their lives to end the Atlantic slave trade.
Sell me Battersea Bridge, thanks. And buy me a pint.
I guess I should trust the phrases you’ve heard on the TV, and not my own life experience.
British were definately not the ones doing Atlantic slave trade, but the ones that liberated all of the African people. They also liberated Northern America and Australia from the natives (which some might call genocide and centralization of power and the loss of freedom, not to be confused with communism).
Bridge for sale is the Crimean one. Ownership comes with territorial claim on Crimea itself (*sending troops might be required).
USA Empire/hegemony wasn’t a thing until the collapse of the USSR, and arguably didn’t fully blossom until after 9-11.
“big empires fighting each other for supremacy” is a dreadful lens with which to view history, not just an oversimplification but wholly inadequate.
Some anti-West propaganda is true, and some is false. Personally, I find it objectionable to convict an individual (or a nation) of a crime he hasn’t committed, no matter how many other crimes he has. Falsely convicting someone of murder, for example, effectively gives license for the real murderer to kill again. You don’t seem to object to blindly swallowing propaganda as much as you say you do.
You are right about hegemony, I should have written power or something similar. USA became an empire once it started conquering large areas of land, which was long before USSR became a thing.
Calling spade a spade is not inadequate but common sense. Things empires do in the name of their exceptionalism are dreadful, and relativizing them isn’t much better.
I am not convicting anyone of anything, only those in power can do that. Empires, on the other hand, often (wrongly) convict and punish nations, races, ethnicities, countries, and individuals (Assange comes to mind). Empires are also those producing and spreading propaganda, and i strongly object to swallowing it, blindly or not.
I am not a propaganda outlet but just an individual that was on the receiving end of empires, and saw the other side of exceptionalism (i.e. war). It is indeed dreadful.
“Anyone that believes in British “efforts” around the World being anything but imperialism, should contact me in regards of a bridge I have for sale.”
Correct. I would add that now they are more the aid to American and to an extent EU military, financial and ideological imperialism.
The ‘Threat of Communism” is convenient to delude idiots.
Lets look at this. Marx analysed the economic system known as ‘capitalism’. He realised that (to simplify) one side held most of the power and gained most of the profit i.e. the owner of capital, and exploited the people who produced the goods – the workers.
‘Communism’ is just a system to rectify the injustice inherent in system described in the previous paragraph. The demonisation of ‘communism’ and ‘socialism’ is just a propaganda campaign utilised by the capitalists to stop the workers from ousting them from control of the profits, using spurious ideas such as ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’. If democracy actually worked they would try their best to stop it. Their ‘freedom’ is the freedom of the worker to starve under a bridge if it suits them, and th freedom they have to keep large amounts of money and power to themselves.
I have a different theory about when the Russians will launch their “Winter Offensive”. I don’t think it has anything to do with the freezing ground at all. I believe they will wait until NATO stops sending significant amounts of men and weapons into the fight. As long as NATO sends troops and equipment, Russia is more than happy to destroy them. When the pipeline stops, they will enter from the North encircle what troops are left in Ukraine and eliminate them.
That seems logical….I may add a second option: maybe they’re waiting for the “coalition of the willing” those 40k troops the west keeps talking about….to move into eastern Ukraine, before the Russians do the encircling move.
I would think that the immediate destruction of any troops moving in from NATO would be the top priority….not because of fear or worry, but to show decisively any other potential contestant that their efforts will be futile.
Should the west at any moment feel that the Russians are holding back for any reason, they would take that as weakness and then push ever harder….and that’s when it will become a roll of the dice on WWIII.
The slow meat grinding strategy is working marvelously on all fronts….why give it up until you have to…..the only thing to worry about is taking so long that it gives the west the wrong impression of weakness….
What we (think we) know is that Russia is massing armour and personnel north of Kiev, east of Kharkov and south of Kherson, but it seems to me that all the talk of a “Great Offensive” is misplaced.
The total, on the order of half a million men just doesn’t seem to add up to an offensive on 3 axes across a >1,000 km front. My spidey sense says that something else is cooking. Namely, a Crimea 2.0.
In 2014, Russia staged a 100k+ man snap drill that took NATO’s eyes off the ball. When it found the ball again, Crimea was gone. I’m thinking that the “partial mobilization” and the massing of men and materiel is a maskirovka a la Crimea.
If it has one beyond diversion, the massed men & materiel’s military task will be to consolidate and/or deliver the coup de grâce for actions taken by sleeper cells/insiders within the main cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa to take out the leadership and “open the city gates”. The “offensive” will thus be a lightning advance directly into city cores during the period of chaos following the decapitation and in Odessa’s case may well include an amphibious landing.
Time will tell, of course, but that’s what the tea leaves are currently telling me.
” … by sleeper cells/insiders within the main cities of Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa to take out the leadership and “open the city gates” …”
I like it for Kharkov and Odessa, but I don’t think it works for Kiev.
Why? I don’t know, just my mostly erratic spidey senses telling me that although I consider this UkoRegime incompetent beyond measure, I’d like to think they’ve managed to at least harden their capitol city against a Trojan Horse Scenario.
Either way, I think the plan is to surround Kiev and seige it. Covers a lot bases. Doesn’t require much effort (no street by street fighting!), cuts some supply lines coming from the west, facilitates greater movements directly south toward Odessa, southeast toward Donbas, and possibly into the western badlands as well – if you’re up for it.
As a bonus, if you are fast enough, you might just trap inside the city, most if not all of the UkoNazi big wigs (and maybe a Bojo or a Sting or a Sean Pean too, if any of them happen to be visiting).
Open up one of those famous human corridors (but not seventeen like the first time!), and once the non-combatants are out, and become pain-in-the-ass refugees in Poland and Germany, starve the city into submission.
How long does it take to starve a modern city that also has no lights, heat, water, sewage, and phone service, into submission? One month? Two tops?
Strike at the brain. Working the body is fine, but no fighter worth his salt has ever been knocked out by a body blow.
Besides, the New York Times this morning was screaming at me on its front page, that the Russian Army is the most pathetic excuse for a fighting organization there has ever been, I would like nothing better than for the “paper of record” to have to eat those words.
I guess that makes me a Putin Puppet! So be it. Mostly, I think the Russian Federation was deeply wronged by the United States, when my country, in 2002, abrogated the most important document ever signed by humans, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
This war started then, with that abrogation, and I always root for the party that has been wronged, I don’t care who it is.
“and I always root for the party that has been wronged, I don’t care who it is.”
We don’t know each other, we will never meet, but I would like you to know that you have all my sympathy and respect. (I myself try to do that also).
“I like it for Kharkov and Odessa, but I don’t think it works for Kiev.”
I hear ya, but (AFAIK) we’re looking at a force of ~90k men north of Kiev. Unless they’ve again been tasked with no more than keeping Kiev’s defences pinned in Kiev, that’s far short of what’s needed for a siege.
Though the Ukes doubtless hardened Kiev against Trojan Horses, I’m thinking that the combination of an obviously lost cause (including their own destruction) and the Ukrainian penchant for corruption can overcome any hardening. Zelenski himself said that he’s “surrounded by traitors”. I’m guessing there’s more of them than he knew about, and that they’re not who he thought they were.
Anyway, we’ll see how this plays out. All I’m saying is that I expect surprises, and that all the pundits’ speculations (incl my own) will get tossed into a cocked hat when Surovikin makes his move.
” … we’re looking at a force of ~90k men north of Kiev.”
That’ll reprensent the blocking force to the west of the capitol, similar to the Column of Mystery we saw in beginning, only bigger. The main element will by-pass Sumi on both sides, and set up shop in the eastern and soutern suburbs.
Then they will all dig in, and toast marshmellows, while issuing ultimatums like: “surrender or die!,” and other such siege classics.
Anyway, that is my Personal Narrative at the moment, based on no evidence whatsoever,* and I’m sticking to it!
“All I’m saying is that I expect surprises …. ”
No doubt, if anything else, this has been a war of surprises.
*Except for those 150 or so train videos that showed up on YouTube a couple months ago, the ones showing Russian military equipment heading toward the front.
Of the ones identified, more than half seemed to headed toward either Kursk or Belgorad, so there is some evidence of the scant kind I guess.
So it seems the reports of Russian missile manufacturing and inventory are from Ukraine.
Which is why they have been consistently and repeatedly wrong.
Yet another sign of the institutional dysfunction in both the Western intelligence agencies and the Western mainstream press.
Taibbi was asked by Russell Brand, 2 days ago, whether the entire mainstream media is basically just a mouthpiece for the powers that be. Taibbi’s answer was: in the past, a large media publication like the NYT would only very rarely ever source or reference to the government. Today, it seems that the opposite is occurring: no story goes out without approval and/or reference from the government.
What more needs to be said?
I am becoming more and more of the view that what we in the West are experiencing now, is the late Soviet “death by bureaucrats”. Their bureaucrats were never elected or electable; ours are different only in the sense that we have elections.
As was said in “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”: “Don’t you think it’s time to recognise that there is as little worth on your side as there is on mine?”
There may be other than sinister reasons for NYT and others passing off govt taking points/press releases as news.
All print and broadcast media have had declining circulation/audiences since the mid 1990s, with associated declines in revenues. The number of staff, journalists and editors has had serial layoffs. The number of investigative journalists has fallen and those that remain have far less time to allocate to any particular story.
The need for content remains, so more and more we see press releases uncritically written up as news, and these get posted on news services to be repeated ad nauseam, to become factoids, established truth and eventually written up as history.
With the best journos fired, the recent hirelings have fewer mentors to counter the woke BS they’ve been indoctrinated with in college.
“This is a serious threat to our democracy.”
My old man taught me that I can’t believe everything I read in the papers and that not everything the govt or politicians say is true. Nothing has changed here.
With the advent of wokism, the MSM has degenerated into MacDonalds for the mind. I prefer to nourish my mind at places like Larry’s bar & grill, where the content is wholesome and the conversation is stimulating.
Taibbi blames it on the death of classified advertising; the loss of this revenue stream forced the mainstream outlets to pander to ever more radical and small demographics.
I think this is part of the picture – but not the only or even primary one. The reality is that many mainstream media publications now have audiences smaller than Joe Rogan’s podcast. Thus it isn’t the need to pander that is driving the decline – it is more likely the lack of real content that is driving it.
Another part of the picture is likely that there has always been at least some government/intel agency meddling in media – but the ever shrinking audiences and radicalizing/moralizing of said mainstream mouthpieces have been a receding tide of “cover” for the outright propaganda. Cover only works if you have a sea of noise; if you have a smooth surface of lockstep groupthink, there is no more cover. That’s why Tor was invented by ONI.
Ultimately, the reasons don’t matter. What matters is that MSM is no longer useful for anything but understanding what the bureaucrat/aristocrats think and want.
Anonymous references too. The NYT actually said it would stop doing that after Iraq. That was part of the mea culpa it published when it finally admitted what anyone paying attention knew while the Iraq run up was happening. It’s gotten much worse than it was even in 2002/3.
Here they see Ukraine as a proxy for the US but they never manage to see Ukraine as the territory for Russia to resolve a series of issues that it has claimed for many years in Europe. Namely a new European security architecture without the siege of NATO missiles in the Black Sea. And to that extent, Ukraine is nothing more than a proxy for Russia. The US used Ukraine to overthrow Putin who expelled the US from Libya and Syria and Russia uses Ukraine to expel US influence from Europe! Namely the weapons of NATO! As for the testing of weapons, it happens in all conflicts, but it is rarely decisive!
Of course Russia could have destroyed all of Ukraine’s infrastructure in the first week like the US does in shock and awe wars. Mark Milley himself expected this and even said that the war would not take 1 month! But the conflict has always been essentially economic for both sides, the West and Russia but also the Global South – fundamental for an NWO and for Russia to overcome economic sanctions – which are actually the two big blocs facing each other in Ukraine! And at the military level, the conflict is also existential for Russia due to the US Wolfwitz doctrine. A US hypersonic missile 1 or 2 years from now takes less than 5 minutes from Ukraine to Moscow, which should also worry all Europeans as a trigger for a nuclear war! The Donbass was just the trigger for this military conflict but Russia doesn’t want to solve just the Donbass that it could have solved in the first week!
Russia wants to implode with NATO and the EU in Europe, which takes longer. Russia does not want the US presence in Europe or any of its arms in Brussels. Russia wants to reestablish connection with European sovereign states! Without the EU, most of the countries of old Europe, as Rumsfeld said, would never have taken a position in this conflict! And they still received natural gas today! In the same way that China needs the European market. So anyone who thinks that Europe is going to fall into a black hole is wrong. It is Brussels that has already fallen into a black hole!
This comment is basically a summary of the letters – ultimatums – with the proposals that Russia sent to the US and to the European countries through NATO in December to avoid this conflict. Letters that were never answered and that basically demanded that they stop bombing Donbass and lift the missiles from Poland and Romania, installed after the US withdrew from the ABM treaty!
That, as I said, all Europeans should be concerned about the Armagadeon that could unleash in Europe and from which no one can escape. Unfortunately the EU is nothing more than another arm of the US in Europe like NATO. And the US lies and never responded to Russian proposals in December because it has wanted this conflict for a long time. The only curiosity, so as not to call it insanity, is that by all accounts the US intended to overthrow Putin with the massive Russophobic propaganda campaign that we see every day on MSM!
So you shouldn’t be too sure about the billions in weapons that the US and UK dropped on Ukraine after EuroMaidan. Much less in the famous 2nd largest army in Europe. And compared to the US reaction to the Cuban missile crisis, it took many years for Russia to respond to NATO provocations on its border. Most likely preparing.
whatever you beleive will be the outcome of the war in Ukraine the undeniable fact is Europe is not going to get back its cheap energy in a jiffy. even if its posible technically, economically it will take many years if all are willing. By that time China , Asia and Africa will be far ahead. right now Africa Europe trade is $300 billion and Africa US trade is $50 billion. Africa Russia trade is $12 billion. Looks like US has already sanctioned itself off most places in the world.
Africa is on a growth path and Europe is not going to be a big part of it neither is US.
You really think economies of the walled garden will be the same without the conveyor belt that bring the wealth from zoneB?
Africa? It was good it was! But since you like numbers, do you know how much the European common market is worth? What about exchanges with China? Russia is not at war with Europe but with the EU. That it is not a country, not even a Federation of countries. It’s an economic alliance more or less like the NATO military alliance. With many problems already before this conflict. Problems with hasty integration from the east, problems in the eurozone, etc. And many of the fantasies you hear today about Europe are also a retaliation against the Russophobia of Brussels. Russia and China gain nothing from the impoverishment of the European economy. Otherwise what was the need to sabotage the Baltic gas pipelines? Not even the US gains anything from the impoverishment of the European economy, which still makes this conflict even more insane. And my only explanation is that there is a lot of personal hatred against Putin in this conflict. Perhaps because of the defeats in the Middle East and the recent alliance with China, the main challenger. Today the main danger of conflict for Europe is its spread. Which I hope Russia manages to avoid! Because the last thing Europe needs is another war like the two WW’s. Where we all lost so much. Including Russia!
“Russia has enough firepower for only three or four more missile barrages”…why would the UKR Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council say such an absurd thing:
1. He’s just parroting what US-NATO intel puppet masters are telling him to say as part of the greater IO campaign (themes and messages that Russia lacks the ability for sustained precision strike weapons attacks…whether that’s true or not makes no difference…it’s all about the message and how it’s perceived by the intended audience)
2. He’s clearly delusional…
3. To boost morale and give the UKR miltary (what’s left of it) and the citizenry hope?
4. etc…..
5. Credibility is a huge thing–once lost rarely regained
I would love to be a fly on the wall during the US-NATO After Action Review (AAR) when the UKR SMO is “done” (as Russia defines it)…
How about a fat GreekFly.
Greece announces a
$48million loan to ukraine LOL
The same country that stole the peoples saving out of their bank accounts. IMF supervised bank robbery.
Just have to admit the facts, US EU – free fall inside a delusional vortex.
The pundits and players are arrogant and tiresome. Which reminds me it’s France V Argentina.
Not as good as Aussie rules though.
Goodnight all.
Today, Henry Kissinger admitted that the present DC/neocon goal for Russia is emasculation and dissolution.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/
Given this existential threat, why would Russia accept anything other than total victory in Ukraine?
There can be no total victory in Ukraine.
Russia has lost soldiers and civilians and treasure, western Ukraine does not want Russian rule. Sweden and Norway have joined NATO. Nord Stream 2 has been blown up, Russians are being shut be out of and discriminated against world over in many countries.
So what does total victory look like for Russia? Take Ukraine upto the Dnieper? Take Odessa connect to Transnistria. Kills lots of ukie army and NATO troops? Break away from West financially?
What does victory for Ukraine or Europe look like?
America has already won, it has made money, retained control of Europe and weakened Russia limiting it’s sphere of influence.
There is very little down side for the US unless it’s directly drawn into the war or it’s finances and power are hurt.
The war will only end when it hurts America more than Russia and we are no where near there yet. How does America feel and pain from the suffering it inflicts?
ASH why are you still here posting drivel? Unless you are a paid troll or have a mental disability I see no valid reason.
You must be reading what we read so why can’t you understand as a normal functioning adult can?
Stupid people don’t know they are stupid as their only reference point is their own stupidity, which of course they don’t know exists.
Ash is correct, IMHO. Russia will gain everything east of the Dnieper and that’s it by way of territory + some “agreements” that may or may not be worth the paper they’re written on ten years from now. Anything beyond that would be WW3.
US/NATO is never going to allow Russia to take Odessa. Never. US/NATO will go balls to walls to stop that and Russia will wisely back off and use it as a bargaining chip. That means US/NATO troops on the ground defending Odessa. Poland will ultimately take part of western Ukraine, thus NATO will take it. They need Odessa for pride alone, but obviously for economic reasons.
Anyone who thinks Russia is going to seize and hold Odessa + the rest of Ukraine is out of their freakin’ minds. Sorry for the reality check, but it’s good for you in the long run.
I’m even 50% convinced that US/NATO will put combat troops, no fly zones, etc. before Russia consolidates everything east of the Dnieper, with US/NATO attacking into Crimea and jumping off WW3 preemptively. Yes, it’s crazy. Yes, they’d still do it crazy or not. Crazy never stopped anyone who’s paradigm was falling apart. In fact, it usually spurs them on. A lot of you are seriously underestimating what this whole thing means to Washington and how driven they are. They’re seething and people like that get aggressive when they’re seething; not more rational and circumspect.
“US/NATO is never going to allow Russia to take Odessa. Never. US/NATO will go balls to walls to stop that…”
While it’s easy enough to throw “no fly zones” and “boots on the ground” around like confetti, one is hard pressed to imagine how the West would go about implementing either, or how they would serve to stop the Russians. What sort of no fly zone could NATO impose if it can’t fly uncontested over Ukraine, and what do you expect those boots to do that >500k Ukrainian boots went down failing to do, even if they could muster and equip a few?
The reality I’m looking at says that the only balls they’ve still got hanging are their nukes, but they seem unaware they’re behind that curve as well. Russia has a generation or two’s worth of qualitative edge in technology on the offensive side of the ledger. On the defensive side, Russia boasts the only operational integrated, layered Air Defence system (quite capable of defending against good ol’ ICBMs) and placed much of its land based arsenal on mobile launchers, making their targetting problematic. On the human side, Russia has also maintained the extensive civil defence facilities and programs it inherited from Soviet times. The US/NATO/EU has none of that.
Moreover, the West is target rich, while Russia’s vast landscape and sparse population make it target poor, relatively speaking. Put another way, the West has a lot more to lose, and an immeasurably higher probability of losing it.
So, if the US/NATO/EU go “balls to the walls” it’ll be because they’ve opted for the “Global Hegemony or Bust” policy. While a nuke exchange wouldn’t be any sort of win for Russia, any escalation beyond Round 1 would result in the disappearance of the US/NATO/EU. “Bust” it would be, big time.
I see Referendums being held Eric as part of any negotiated settlement once the UAF have lost capacity. As you say any military assault on Nikolaev and Odessa means an intervention force from Romania. The 200k force assembled in Belarus seems weighted towards Brest and best retains power and influence without being committed. Russia has Kaliningrad to think about as well, Poland has been moving artillery and forces towards Kaliningrad and would like nothing better than to absorb it into the Polish State. A strong force in Western Belarus also influences Polish decision making for any plans it has for Galicia. When President Biden visited Poland he said that any NATO country sending forces into Ukraine those forces would not be covered by NATO guarantees. We have seen that policy statement in operation already via external forces already committed. With Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu all attending meetings in Minsk no doubt we shall see soon enough what is being decided.
ASH said:
“So what does total victory look like for Russia? Take Ukraine upto the Dnieper? Take Odessa connect to Transnistria. Kills lots of ukie army and NATO troops? Break away from West financially?”
Ys, yes, yes, and yes.
ASH said:
“What does victory for Ukraine or Europe look like? America has already won, it has made money, retained control of Europe and weakened Russia limiting it’s sphere of influence.”
Won by completing the destruction of the American myth of being “good”?
Won by demonstrating American arms, training, support and money = failure for the 2nd largest military in Europe (the largest is Turkey)?
Won by destroying Europe’s economy?
Won by making Russia a hero for the entire ROW outside of the G7? Won by uniting China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia and more into a self defense assembly directed against US military and economic interests? Won by a commodities producer demonstrating to Africa and South America that in fact, they have economic hence political power as opposed to Western consumers?
As per the movie Princess Bride: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
HMS Terror,
So you assume the US/UK will do what is rational based on facts on the ground? They’ve got it all gamed out and are playing masters level chess?
I find that assumption baseless. If it was true, then we wouldn’t be here in the first place.
Yes the nuclear threat (and maybe use)
Eric is right, it seems that there is a lot of insanity on the West side because the stakes are very high but it is a controlled insanity, always with ground to retreat. World leadership and an NWO in Ukraine are playing far beyond Russia’s conflict with the Kiev regime. The NATO presence in Ukraine alone has crossed all of Moscow’s red lines. But that doesn’t mean the West hasn’t kept lines of retreat. I’ll give you an example that many either didn’t realize or have forgotten. The expectation of the US provocation was that Russia would enter Ukraine to level Kiev as the US leveled Belgrade or Baghdad. Note that in the first weeks the US completely backed off after the millions in weapons it had already poured into Ukraine since 2014 to fuel the provocation of the nationalists. And if Russia has fallen into the trap, it was completely isolated even from the global south, which did not have the conditions to support a humanitarian catastrophe of this dimension. As they also thought that they were bleeding the Russian army in the fortifications of Donbass and that the propaganda was making the rest of the way among the Russian population to overthrow the Govt in Moscow with thousands of dead Russian soldiers. Another trap that Russia did not fall into, responding with its best weapon – artillery! An ever slower war!
In Ukraine, even a master-level geostrategic game is played, as Eric says, but on both sides. Both parties measure all plays well. Russia entered Ukraine to defend itself, no doubt but from the 24th of February it went on the attack. A great attack years in the making to implode the unipolar world, NATO and EU in Europe! A Russian offensive by an NWO with partners from the global south that already knew how to be a long game, with a lot of calculations, a lot of moves and a lot of patience! Also very architected with partners like China long before the invasion. I never believed in the big failure of Russian intelligence that some talk about, including in Kiev. If any intelligence failed, it wasn’t Russian! Playing is also trying and retreating when necessary! Still none of the parties reached all in and I honestly don’t believe in nuclear!
But I believe that today Poland, for example, is getting ready with the Patriots, in yet another premeditated move, to take a Russian missile. In a conflict always on a conventional level. And Russia still needs time to implode NATO, the EU economy and the US itself. Why would the West also give in if it doesn’t have to? To force them to sit down at the negotiating table? When on top of that there are different motivations between the various partners. I, to be honest, still today did not perceive Germany’s aggressiveness with a Govt mainly from the SPD after giving in at Nord Stream II in Washington?! Leftovers from WWII or were they just sucked into the warmongering vortex of the US with some promises like maintaining Russian gas? Honestly I don’t know the answer but it sure didn’t happen with the Shroeder Govt! And despite Merkl’s declarations over the last month, I find it hard to believe that she would yield so much to Washington as Chancellor!
Already the military conflict in Ukraine is finally in the terminal phase. Ukrop has nothing left to offer but the blood of the last men in Donbass that it can no longer replace. And with the conflict in Ukraine over on Russia’s terms, so is the great world chess match. Incidentally, I’ve been convinced for several weeks now that the West just wants to negotiate. See now Zalushnyi’s interview? But at this stage it seems to me that it is Ukraine proxy itself that has not yet met the conditions to sit down and hence the Economist interview. That met in March, when the West aborted these negotiations. That I also don’t believe that Russia closed. And just look at the level of your emissaries. It is very complicated to follow a conflict of this dimension from the outside. How much more do we catch the big lies of the Western side’s propaganda campaign. But we can never forget that Russia is also playing.
Like this very repeated lie in the last few days, which you can see right away that it is once again part of the PR strategy, that Sweden and Finland have already joined NATO!?!? False! Sweden itself, which changed Govt in the meantime, has already come to say that it is tired of waiting and closer to giving up. Turkey won’t give in and Finland won’t go in alone! And all these moves are part of the big geostrategic game. From the fight for soft power where Russia has won the most in the last 10 months! Some more important than others, of course. For me, in addition to continuing to believe that Russia cannot lose this conflict, I have also never seen any indications that the US could go nuclear. Which would make me very worried of course! Incidentally, NATO now only says that it wants to avoid a nuclear escalation. And the US who saved Gerasimov’s life. I don’t think they’re still attacking with bullshit like this!
Without wanting to go any further and as several people have already written in this post, the supremacy of the US was always based on fear of its military power and never on respect for the great nation. And we can even talk about the model of its armed forces, which was never designed to protect its borders but to quickly project its threatening military power onto aircraft carriers. Like the British Empire and navy that the US snapped up. Threats and blackmail that are still felt, for example, in the votes in the NU! Where we check many nations that we feel are on the side of the global south but still do not vote against the US! And that’s also how they imposed petrodollars on the Saudis. after the bankruptcy that came with Vietnam. Which the fearless Saudis have already dropped. Because supremacy based solely on bullying ends when another bully appears on the beach. And in this sense the conflict in Ukraine has been devastating for the military prestige of the US and NATO. The entire enlarged West is completely powerless in the face of Russia’s military might. Which proved capable of defending any nation from the threats of the unipolar world and Washington’s Xeriff. Russia’s big goal in 2022!
“So you assume the US/UK will do what is rational based on facts on the ground?”
No, I was addressing your comment regarding a Russian attempt on Odessa so I assumed what you suggested they’d do. My point was that they wouldn’t do what you suggested because they couldn’t.
“They’ve got it all gamed out and are playing masters level chess?”
The last thing I would suggest. I think they’re floundering, but I believe there remain a sufficient number of sober headed people who see that the West has its hand in a monkey jar and that grabbing another nut ain’t gonna help. The fact that they’ve not yet put (combat) boots on the ground and have ruled out declaring a no-fly zone says the sober headed still have the last word.
I’ll grant that madness may yet get the upper hand and nukes will fly. The recently published Nuclear Posture Review suggests that madness is gaining the upper hand. It says that America will use nukes to defend “its national interests” and even its “prosperity”. IOW, if sober-headed assessment and planning can’t deliver Global Hegemony and its economic benefits for America, madness can at least prevent anyone else from getting the economic benefits (if not the Hegemony).
That is indeed madness. Should it overcome the remaining voices of reason we will witness the end of Western civilization at the least, and all civilization the worst. Every Westerner, indeed every human should read that document.
If you read the coffee grounds instead, you’ll see it comes up with Syria as the final outcome for Ukraine, with US forces nestled away in Galicia, trying their best to stay relevant.
Syrian scenario is the desired one for USA, which is why Russians had to make them clear that they will not allow it. Russians never fired at US soldiers in Syria. Here they have already killed a bunch of NATO “volunteers” (some say 1000+ from Poland alone), and have enough ammo for all those that decide to come in the future.
Just had my coffee, and it says that Russians will eventually give Galicia to Poland, and let it become some kind of Palestine like thing, where Poles and Banderites will slay each other for decades in according to their tradition. US forces won’t even dare to come in, because staying alive is more important than staying relevant.
Yes, but does Galicia have Oil that Uncle Schmuel can take and sell?
NATO’s moves in Ukraine are reminiscent of Custer’s last stand at Little Bighorn. Custer had intelligence that there were a few hundred Indians camped out, and planned to kill them all in the Spring. He sent Reno around behind, and figured he’d lead the charge and rub them out. The trouble was, over the winter the number grew by thousands. Fast forward to now, where we saw the US and NATO figure they had Russia on the ropes and could use Ukraine to pick away at them until the country fell apart. Meanwhile, Russia quietly built up its economy and military capabilities knowing that the west was out to rub them out as a country. Well, like Custer when he rode over the hill and saw a vastly superior force, now NATO is facing the same thing. I am sure, that like Custer and his men, they are actually panicking in NATO as they have to know they bit off more than they can chew, and, rather than continue updating intelligence, just went on hubris believing they are invincible. They face a dilemma – continue the fight and lose, resulting in the end of NATO, or admit defeat and walk away, same overall result. If people like Col. MacGregor know this, then a lot of people in both the US military and NATO must know it too. Right now they’re like deer in the headlights, as they know this is just the first domino, with others like Taiwan ready to fall.
How can America lose? I can’t see how they can lose from this conflict other than if China and Russia create a separate economic order and pull most of the world that way.
How do you want to see the US defeated if you also think the US is winning the war? You even think that Russia is losing its sphere of influence as an NWO pivot. That’s why Russia was just kicked out of the Middle East, correct? If I were a doctor, I would prescribe 3 more hours of CNN a day.
Three hours of CNN a day was one of the conditions the US demanded of Serbia when they thought they had it on the ropes. When that didn’t work out, they turned to knocking out the water, power and everything else, including the kitchen sink (dual use, you know) and flooding the Danube and air with every carcinogenic chemical known to man and the ground with a good dose of radioactivity. (chemical warfare, you know).
That stick, plus a phony UN Res. 1244 carrot did it. The Serbs finally threw in the towel. Can’t understand why such a problem with Russian tactics today then. Pretty much by the NATO play book.
Then they say, ‘two wrongs don’t make a right’. Well, if the 1st wrong was considered by the wrongdoer as not wrong but right, there goes that argument. Guess they’ll have to settle for the wornout ‘whataboutism’ gobbledegook.
Militarily the US loses the facade of invincibility. Once the bully is exposed, then everybody’s willing to take a shot at him. The hegemony is based on fear, and the fear is based on the perceived ability of the US to enforce their will. It is becoming clear that it can’t anymore. It can’t get a carrier group anywhere near Taiwan for close support because hypersonics have changed the game. Big fleets have been neutered. Russia is showing the world that NATO can’t compete with conventional arms either. All the US has is an old nuclear inventory, and anyone watching things now would have to think we don’t want to find out how advanced the numerically superior Russian inventory is. We already know enough to suspect it’s decades better.
Economically the power shift is taking place at a rapid rate. Militarizing the world’s financial system was a bad move by the US and will lead to the end of the dollar as reserve currency. Confiscating foreign reserves and restricting other’s trade for political reasons is a concern to all. It’s just bullying, and most countries do not want any part of it and will exit at the earliest opportunity. It’ll take a while, but the dollar is done. The US acted like no one had any choice, and now we are finding out there are always choices.
America has already lost, I’m afraid. It only remain to be seen how it plays out. How do you run a hegemony when you get all your stuff made elsewhere? The China COVID lockdowns caused a shortage of bleached cotton matting, among other things. The importance? It’s needed for NATO artillery shells. Gee, NATO can’t make enough as it is, and relies on China for a small, but critical component. Years ago the UK couldn’t field some tanks because they were waiting for barrels that came from China. You can’t make this stuff up. Maybe China’s COVID policies weren’t actually about COVID. Funny how they are now lifting them. Westerners are typically reductionist thinkers, easterners more systematic. They think things through and play the long game. Systems thinkers look for where the leverage lies.
“I can’t see how they can lose from this conflict other than if China and Russia create a separate economic order and pull most of the world that way.”
It seems that it was the game plan all along, considering that they have been talking about multipolar world for a while. Most of the news from the fronline are just noise. Sending yet another wunderwaffe, or more meat to the Bakhmut grinder is insignificant compared to Saudi Arabia selling oil in yuan instead of dollars, or OPEC reducing production of oil after US asking for increase. Even Wikipedia says that:
“The BRICS are considered the foremost rival to the G7 bloc of leading advanced economies, announcing competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, Contingent Reserve Arrangement, BRICS payment system, and BRICS basket reserve currency. Since 2022, the group has sought to expand membership, with several developing countries expressing interest in joining”.
…..or if the nukes start flying.
Don’t think the unthinkable can’t happen
Just found this video from 1983 where it is told how the CIA distributes disinformation with the goal of prolonging conflicts….and how the Five Eyes network acts as amplificators and kinda verificators…leading to others´ belief….
https://t.me/DanieleGanser/617
If Desantis becomes POTUS in 2024, McGregor will be Defense Secretary.
DeSantis is an uber-neocon who spent his time in the U.S. Congress advocating for arming Ukraine and was critical of Trump for trying to make friends with Russia and Putin. DeSantis is an Israel firster not an American firster. Zero chance he’s take on McGregor as SecDef.
DeSantis in his own words:
https://twitter.com/fjb4587/status/1603364123164626944?s=20&t=CmESUO6GoujkV1d_cYM_xw
lol no. Even if MacGregor was young enough he’s not going to go along with the globalist agenda. DeSantis is going to put in another swamp creature.
Losses of Europe could eventually reach up to 10 trillions EU till 2026:
This includes skyrocketing energy costs, sanctions, inflation, destruction of jobs, industries, shops closed, unemployment benefits, refugees, losses of IR+VAT for all govts, emmigration of industries, people, skills, debts increases, bailouts of banks and energy sector, bailout of people etc…untill some new tyran like A Hitler takes power somewhere as people will become desesperate,Violence even domestic terrorism can emerge.
Congratulations to EU NATO Bojo, Scholz, Macron etc etc..and neocons fanatics in the US UK
Europe’s $1 Trillion Energy Bill Only Marks Start of the Crisis
High prices could last years and aid is becoming unaffordable
Relief on global gas markets isn’t expected until 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-18/europe-s-1-trillion-energy-bill-only-marks-start-of-the-crisis?srnd=premium-europe&fbclid=IwAR1L82NPxT9HUOwggUj7AANtZFOCCUhC4K7tJr1bzbqTU7NPSMzaYZq7BsA
Now in Germany the leading slogan during silenced protests (Munich last friday)is: ”ami go home” which means americans get out of Europe and never come back including tourists. If you want wars do these wars inside your own country, the World has enough of you people.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/
Why did Elon buy Twitter? Perhaps it would be beneficial to consider that a) war is an extension of geopolitics and b) seeding and controlling the public narrative is essential to both war and politics.
Was Twitter the most freely accessible and influential public platform of global real time interactive communication in the last 2 decades? Did Twitter offer unique leverage as a private corporation exempt from FOIA and direct communications oversight? Did Twitter offer private DM’s and Slack server space that were protected behind that corporate and 1rst Amendment edifice?
What better global “benign” interface could you build for a) propoganda and b) covert comms?
When Elon took over Twitter, he unexpectedly and immediately locked out physical and digital access to all of Twitter staff, contractors, management, and the board, while he secured the datebase/servers with his own small team of Space X engineers.
He bought the algos, Slack server and DM’s, along with the biz…which document Evidence. Criminality. Corruption. Collusion. Foreign Interference. He probably turned the goods over to someone (yet revealed special prosecutor?) in DOJ first. Some of those “secure” comms are being vetted and posted now for exposure. Many more will show up in court cases in time.
Elon is working with/for a team. You don’t get to be the eccentric genius face of all this without a some serious backing:
https://www.spacex.com/
Gigi
Oops, please do not post prior comment on Elon Musk. Typed email address in name line by mistake.
Why did Elon buy Twitter? Perhaps it would be beneficial to consider that a) war is an extension of geopolitics and b) seeding and controlling the public narrative is essential to both war and politics.
Was Twitter the most freely accessible and influential public platform of global real time interactive communication in the last 2 decades? Did Twitter offer unique leverage as a private corporation exempt from FOIA and direct communications oversight? Did Twitter offer private DM’s and Slack server space that were protected behind that corporate and 1rst Amendment edifice?
What better global “benign” interface could you build for a) propoganda and b) covert comms?
When Elon took over Twitter, he unexpectedly and immediately locked out physical and digital access to all of Twitter staff, contractors, management, and the board, while he secured the datebase/servers with his own small team of Space X engineers.
He bought the algos, Slack server and DM’s, along with the biz…which document Evidence. Criminality. Corruption. Collusion. Foreign Interference. He probably turned the goods over to someone (yet revealed special prosecutor?) in DOJ first. Some of those “secure” comms are being vetted and posted now for exposure. Many more will show up in court cases in time.
Elon is working with/for a team. You don’t get to be the eccentric genius face of all this without a some serious backing:
https://www.spacex.com/
What about Bill Burns? Interview on PBS last week is here: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/cia-director-bill-burns-on-war-in-ukraine-intelligence-challenges-posed-by-china
Does he really believe what he is saying?
This is the guy who in 2008 identified Ukraine as “the brightest of red lines” for the entire Russian establishment.
How does he think?
I heard some things about Poland preparing for mobilization… If True Poland’s mobilization would indicate a preparedness to intervein in some manner.. The Effect would be Russia and Belarus would likely reserve a high mobility force deployment capable of dealing with the consequences of such intervention and this might discourage big arrow moves from the north..
If the Baltic Nations and Finland follow in preparing for mobilization this would support the likelihood of escalation.