Folks love combat air. Just look at the crowds flocking to see the latest Top Gun. There has been tension between ground forces and air forces since World War II over who packs the biggest punch. During World War II, the Commanders of the 8th Army Air Force (back then the U.S. Air Force was part of the U.S. Army and did not become a separate command until after the war) insisted they could win the war by bombing Germany into submission. Turned out they were wrong, but that belief persisted into many subsequent conflicts.
The reality is that wars against a first world power requires the coordinated use of infantry, tanks, artillery, missiles, combat air–fixed and rotary wing–intelligence, electronic warfare and strong logistics. Short of dropping a nuclear bomb or missile, war is a complex operation.
With that prelude, I want you to step back and look at what is happening in the Donbas. Russia has air supremacy. Here is the definition:
Aerial supremacy (also air superiority) is the degree of which a side in a conflict holds control of air power over opposing forces. There are levels of control of the air in aerial warfare. Control of the air is the aerial equivalent of command of the sea.
How do we know? Russia is flying unchallenged. There are no Ukrainian planes taking off to shoot down Russian aircraft. This is not a Putin talking point. It is a fact. Here is a video showing a series of Russian combat flights over the Donbas. Note they are flying close to the terrain. Why? Because Ukraine still has some surface to air missiles that could be effective against air craft flying 1000 feet or higher.
This is just one component of the Russian offensive. These pilots are being directed by intelligence collected real time from satellites, drones and ground observers. They are not operating in isolation. It is a combined arms operation.
What about Ukraine? The Ukrainian troops on the ground are hunkered down in trenches and bunkers. They cannot call for air support because it has been eliminated. How do I know? I cannot find a single video in the last four months of a squadron of Ukrainian pilots attacking Russian positions. You see, the Russians have a robust air defense system that deploys with mechanized and infantry units.
Ukraine has been trying to rebuild its meager air force but is running into some difficulty. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Thursday briefing:
High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 5 combat aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force at Mirgorod military airfield in Poltava Region. 1 Su-27 and 1 Su-24 have been destroyed. Another 2 Su-27s and 1 Su-24 suffered critical damage. The enemy’s casualties in manpower were up to 30 Nationalists.
Without a credible air capability, Ukraine is incapable of launching any kind of ground offensive to oust Russians from Kherson or any other piece of territory controlled by Russia. If Ukraine is able to cobble together a regiment or two, supported by a tank battalion, the Ukrainian force will run into a wall of fire from Russian artillery, drones, missiles, helicopters and jet fighters. That is a suicide mission and I cannot understand why many of the military pundits populating the U.S. airwaves are afraid to acknowledge this reality. It cannot be ignorance. There is too much information on the internet that contradicts the flood of propaganda from western media and government sources insisting that Russia is stalled or losing. It is not.
There is a representative and egregious piece of disinformation was published on August 24 in Vox by Zack Beauchamp. He writes:
More recently, however, the momentum has started to swing back to the Ukrainian side. Western military aid — most notably an American rocket artillery system called HIMARS — has helped level the artillery playing field and wreaked havoc on Russian supply lines. Today, experts aren’t asking whether Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-held territory, but when it will start and where it will focus.
Whether this means Ukraine is now “winning,” however, is a somewhat more complicated question to answer. We don’t know that the upcoming counteroffensive is likely to succeed; it depends on factors about which we have limited evidence, like Ukraine’s ability to conduct so-called “combined arms” offensive operations (ones that employ multiple components of military power simultaneously to accomplish a particular goal). Some important quantitative metrics, like the size of their respective ammunition stockpiles, are hard to estimate based on publicly available information. At this point, even leading experts on the conflict find it difficult to assess with real confidence who’s winning on the battlefield.
These guys and gals have one job–persuade the American people that they should continue to support sending billions of dollars in military gear and financial aid to Ukraine. Once the American people wake up and realize this is now a fool’s errand, the bamboozle will be over. But not completely. The propaganda campaign has poisoned future prospects for normal relations with Russia. That is dangerous. Not even during the darkest days of the Cold War did the United States try to isolate Russia and refuse to engage on the diplomatic level. A return to diplomacy appears as likely as a Ukrainian offensive to retake Crimea. It is not in the cards.
To me, six months into Russia’s military operation, this looks like a two-part war:
(A) The United States government against the European peoples (economic). Very, very bad things are going to transpire this winter.
(B) The United States government against the American people (informational and economic). The duplicity in this part of the war is unforgivable. The government is essentially battling to ruin the critical mental faculties of the American people and manipulate them into shunting even more tax dollars into the coffers of weapons manufacturers. Imagine if the aid given to Ukraine (over 10 billion dollars by conservative estimates) in what is going to be an utterly lost cause had been dedicated to rebuilding American infrastructure instead? Think about it. Roads, bridges, seaports and airports; power plants; water supply and treatment facilities; schools and hospitals; food safety facilities. That is not an exhaustive list.
Yes but the Big Guy doesn’t get 10% of the money spent at home (half? joking)
It’s out of control fascism. Pure and simple.
tom welsh says
“The government is essentially battling to ruin the critical mental faculties of the American people…”
PE Bird says
As if the American people have any say in directing Federal funds
Thomas Turk says
”Like for these, yeah?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYTEkPjJOW0
Claudio Amadeus says
Rick Bochner, M.D. says
Great post & video Larry; thank you. Your discussion on the Duran earlier this week was also excellent and informative. Thank you again.
I would like to show my gratitude and support your work with a $ donation, but I closed my PayPal account to protest its policy of censorship through demonetization. Are their other ways to donate to your blog?
I too would like to donate. But worry about bank details and Washington.
Simple BPAY from my account . Pay all my bills and the bank is safe.
Until my government goes full Canuck on anyone who is not a submissive sheep and loving it.
Just thinking, the government relationship is like paying someone to rob you every time you breath, eat or move.
Chris Brown says
Send your check to:
C/O The White House
Joe will take his 10% and send the rest on…..
Thanks, been doing that but no receipt. Only emails in Chinese with a happy face.
Just can’t win.
At some point, claiming that it can’t be determined who is winning or saying that there is a stalemate will become unwritable. I am curious what they will write when, for instance, Odessa falls after Nikolaev had previously fallen.
another steve says
Yes Larry, even at the height of the Cold War the US and the Soviets knew they had to keep diplomatic channels open. Cuba may have had a worse outcome than no cigars or casinos. The US administration of today does not compare to that era , as flawed as some of those individuals were.
Speaking of air superiority : how did the Soviets do in WW2? Wasn’t their success built around infantry, tanks and artillery ? Along with a surly, ungrateful appreciation of the Arctic convoys ?
Do take a look at pieces of Soviet military equipment such as the Ilyushin Il-2, the Lavochkin La-5 or the Yakovlev Yak-9.
Just one info regarding air supremacy in WW2. German pilots received order to avoid get in dog fights with La5 (Lavockin)..
I think the Russian tactical airforce was the largest in the world in 1945. Think IL2 and PE2 as well as the well known Mig and Yak fighters. The Soviet Storm series was on YouTube and did have an episode covering the air war.
another steve says
Thanks for that. There’s a Grumman Hellcat (i.e. 1946 Yak trainer) that flies along the bay on weekends. You can see it, hear it and feel it.
Also the Lend-Lease to Russia included thousands of aircraft, primarily the P-39 Aircobra which while not suitable for high altitude combat and escort for US strategic bombing tactics, proved excellent for low-level pursuit duties on the Russian front from escorting Stormoviks to intercepting Stuka’s and their ME-109 and FW-190 escorts at low levels.
Phillip Allen says
The series is still available. I’ve watched it several times since running across it a few years ago. This is the link for the full playlist: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwGzY25TNHPC_SsXFcIH-ba0nWuNbHOM6
The episode on the air war is #12.
Thanks for the link. Excellent series!
That’s absurd! The Russ were fully dependent on the Americans for most of their airplanes and weapons along with foods and supplies. It’s why the USA created the lend lease program for Russia. Russia sue what Ukraine is doing today which is why the only other time the USA has enacted the lend lease program is for Ukraine right now. The USA knew Russia would fight and deplete the Germans and then the USA could walk right in and take Germany out and Japan. The USA provided over 10,000 aircrafts to Russia, over 500,000 vehicles, around 10,000 tanks, millions of guns and ammo, and many other weapons and ammo. They also provided Russian troops with tons of food and supplies. Look up the lend lease act for Russia during WW2. Russia didn’t have the best Air Force! Not even close. Germany had the best air force and were far more advanced than the USA or Russians which is why they had already created jet airplanes and the V-2rockets along with guided missiles. The Germans were far superior and had they had a larger population like Russia or the USA and had access to clean and great quality oil they’d have mass produced jet airplanes and dominated everyone. These are just facts and it’s why both the USA and Russia did everything they could to steal as many German inventors as possible during and after the war. Germans weren’t superior but their culture and way of doing things clearly were which is why they were so innovative and were pumping our genius after genius.
Larry Johnson says
Wrong. You need to study the history. Russia produced more T-34 tanks–far superior to the Sherman–than the United States did in the period from 1942-1945. You’ve watched too many Hollywood movies.
Jams O'Donnell says
That’s absurd! The Russians were fully able to design, manufacture, support and fly the vast majority of their aeroplanes, as well as food and other supplies. Even Wikipedia can support this. Look up the history of Yakovlev, Mig, Sukhoi and other companies.
Furthermore, the T-32 was the best designed and most effective tank of the war (although possibly not the best manufactured – but they were in a bit of a hurry).
Germany had innovative designers, but their production methods were unsuited to winning a war. Units were over-designed, over complicated, difficult to produce, introduced into production before they were ready and handicapped by unnecessary internal competition and bureaucracy.
You really need to do some serious reading before coming out with rubbish like you did.
Wrong on so many levels. US supplies, especially food, parts, trucks, and some aircraft were extremely helpful and took pressure off the Soviet industry, allowing them to focus on tanks, ammunition, aircraft, etc. US supplies were very important to Soviet success, but this does not mean that it was decisive.
The Soviet Five Year Plans had transformed the USSR into an industrial powerhouse and this concerned Germany. If left unmolested, the USSR would have outstripped German economic production by 1945 and Germany would never have been able to ‘recover’ the lands it had seized from Russia in 1917-18. Hitler admitted to Finnish Field Marshall Mannerheim that Soviet industrial capacity was eye watering – and a complete surprise to German intelligence. All German war-gaming ahead of Barbarossa predicted a loss for Germany in a long war with the Soviets. They were counting on a massive, destructive campaign that would ‘bring down the whole rotten structure’ resulting in a negotiated settlement or regime change. That was not a solid war plan but was based on German experience in the west. The Germans had failed to learn the real lessons of previous wars against Russia, including the Finnish War. The Russians may suffer terrible defeats but always regroup and push back.
Stanley J Gudmundson says
The communists were going to be more successful economically than Germany? As they have been everywhere they’ve taken power? Holy moly!
Larry Johnson says
Russia is not a communist nation. Catch up with reality.
“Arctic convoys” started appearing in frontlines when? Summer 1942? Winter 1943?
And even then, the most revered parts of Lend Lease were American heavy tracks, and American airfighters (AirCobra and KingCobra, those whose design was written off for USAF fighting Japan over oceans, but proved very fitting low altitudes land war USSR had).
Now, when did USSR started doing big and succesfull offensives? It was hardly 1941,when defence was mostly all RKKA could pull
Qolotlh Kernow says
“Along with a surly, ungrateful appreciation of the Arctic convoys ?”
Wow, US ignorance, russophobic bigotry and presumably ‘a surly ungrateful appreciation’ that the USSR were the heavy lifters in that installment of the world war.
The USSR issued medals for the brave merchant seamen of the Arctic convoys but the ‘democracies’ refused to allow their subjects (oh I mean citizens of course) to accept them until just recently when it became convenient propaganda to allow the French to reward Normandy vets with the Legion D’honneur’. Arctic convoy survivors visiting the USSR and Russia could also get free accomodation and food and drink from grateful Russians.
By comparison the UK refused to pay the crews of Arctic convoy ships that were sunk.
As for the Soviet airforce, it participated in the largest air battle in history during the battle at the ‘Fields of Prokhorovka’ (1943) where more than 100 German divisions were defeated by the Red Army. At the same time the Western ‘Allies’ walked ashore at Sicily wondering where the Germans were…
Past is prologue I hear.
The USA didn’t come to the shores of Normandy wondering where the Germans were. The USA and English used the Russians because Stalin was a total imbecile like trying to build massive water ways right before trains became a viable option and had millions of Russians die because of his idiocy. The Americans let the Russians do the bulk of the fighting and not because the Russians were better but because the Russians were in danger and had to fight. The Germans weren’t threatening the USA and attacking the USA but they were attacking Russia so the Americans helped Russia a GREAT deal with the lend lease act. They let Russians deplete the Germans so the Americans could defeat the Japanese and go to Europe without having to lose nearly as many soldiers as Russians did. The only reason russ Defeated the Germans was because the Americans creased the lend lease act which provided the Russians with over 10,000 aircraft, 10,000 tanks, 400,000 vehicles, millions and millions of guns, ammo, supplies, and FOOD! Americans couldn’t win WW2 without the Russians and Russians wouldn’t have been able to defeat the Germans with the Americans abd that’s just solid historical fact.
Larry Johnson says
Not really. But you are welcome to indulge your fantasy. You betray your ignorance of the war in the East. I would refer you to David Glantz. Lend Lease helped but was not decisive.
David Glantz, the American military historian known for his books on the Eastern front, concludes:
Although Soviet accounts have routinely belittled the significance of Lend-Lease in the sustainment of the Soviet war effort, the overall importance of the assistance cannot be understated. Lend-Lease aid did not arrive in sufficient quantities to make the difference between defeat and victory in 1941–1942; that achievement must be attributed solely to the Soviet people and to the iron nerve of Stalin, Zhukov, Shaposhnikov, Vasilevsky, and their subordinates. As the war continued, however, the United States and Great Britain provided many of the implements of war and strategic raw materials necessary for Soviet victory. Without Lend-Lease food, clothing, and raw materials (especially metals), the Soviet economy would have been even more heavily burdened by the war effort. Perhaps most directly, without Lend-Lease trucks, rail engines, and railroad cars, every Soviet offensive would have stalled at an earlier stage, outrunning its logistical tail in a matter of days. In turn, this would have allowed the German commanders to escape at least some encirclements, while forcing the Red Army to prepare and conduct many more deliberate penetration attacks in order to advance the same distance. Left to their own devices, Stalin and his commanders might have taken twelve to eighteen months longer to finish off the Wehrmacht; the ultimate result would probably have been the same, except that Soviet soldiers could have waded at France’s Atlantic beaches.
U.N. OUT OF USA, USA OUT OF U.N. says
And don’t forget the WINTER. It devastated the Germans.
Pirate English cowards plotted er. Any to attack Russia and then gave arms to Russia to resist germany
Coward English dare not fight on own but look for pawn to fight on their behalf.
Considering the extent of the disaster (at battle of Austerlitz and of Ulm before that in 1805 instigated by england with money stolen from India), The Austrian Emperor sai
” The English are coward dealers of human flesh ; they pay others to fight at their place”.
The Emperor forgot to mention that the payment of gold was from the victim or some other people’s wealth especially loot from India.
Incidentally when Napoleon was celebrating that great victory of Austerlitz,(battle of aristocratic armies ) the so called Trafalgar win happened-the pirates won while the whole grand army was somewhere else celebrating the greatest victory ever of Napoleon !
Russia was punished for helping pirate island England by flaunting continental Boycott of England.
What did English pirates did 30 years later?-
Attacked the same Russians in Crimea to help Muslim turks!
This is what anglos always do.
In all wars theirs’ is main plotter role and it is always theirprecious ally of 30 years ago that they plot to attack.
This series of plotting wars has to be stopped by eleminating English means of creating chaos
And English are too coward to fight on their own-they have never won a single war on their own since boar war in 1899 and that too with all resources of loot from empire.
With a force that peaked at almost half a million men, more than double the entire Boer population of the Transvaal, against an estimated 40,000 Boers in the field, the British expected an easy victory. Easy?
This nation has nothing to crow about human rights. Do not forget that the only way that they could defeat the Boers in South Africa was by putting their women and children in concentration camps. Perhaps we should ask the British about how they interned Boer women and children in sickening concentration camp conditions where 30000 died of cholera and yellow fever and all to force the Boer menfolk off the battlefield.They used women and children as hostages in terrible conditions to slowly die,so as to force the Boer fighters to surrender who they could not defeat militarily.
TODAY.S English create MERCENARY ARMY like ISIS to use against Syria, like taliban was created against afgans and Soviets.
Why the hell do the goddamned British still have a military base in Cyprus?
Who said the British Empire ended?
Britain only mutated into a more disguised imperialist power through the Anglo Axis of Evil (America, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) that plagues the planet today.
britain is the number one parasite nation of this world and is the main evil brain behind american offensive (perpetual war) everywhere in the world. Why? Because only through american military might can a fourth rate country like england hope to have some influence in the world.
and the rest of the world is
“The propaganda campaign has poisoned future prospects for normal relations with Russia. That is dangerous.”
Totally dangerous, as now the Russian people and their government have been driven to a point that they no longer care what the West thinks about their actions – they now have both the economic and military means to fight back successfully. Not only that but now Russia is beginning the permanent re-direction of its energy markets to the East with new pipelines in the making, LNG and the fostering of new relationships with other parts of the world – the Middle East, the Far East, Africa and South America. Europe will be no longer in a position to return to Russian sources of energy in the long term, thus solidifying their descent into poverty.
Hatred is no way to build a future. Ukrainians are indoctrinated to hate Russians, the same way certain countries in the Middle East indoctrinate their people to hate. What is repulsive to me is the hate mongering that is taking place in the West towards Russia. Forces are dividing and conquering themselves as the West collapses.
Art Thomas says
Hatred and fear of The Other are the prime emotions that states engender to keep the population under their control. In my country, the USA, going back just 100 yrs., it was Germany, then Germany again, Japan, Russia, communists, North Korea, North Vietnam, China, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Islam, Russia again now that it has forged its own path eschewing USA puppet state status, and finally and sadly for us we Americans have turned against each other primarily at the behest of the so called liberals, who are not liberal at all these days. We are a house divided against itself, but we need not fall as Lincoln thought we would but rebuild ourselves into separate houses more compatible with the occupants. Individuals and nations have done it and not without great difficulty.
“Hatred is no way to build a future.”
Unless you are a Lord of the Sith. 😛
Oscar Osagie says
Countries in the Middle East indoctrinate their people to hate?
Indoctrination not needed. War crimes been committed there by Western countries in the Middle East & Africa is enough reason to hate for many people.
Try living in a country/region that has been bombed continously for 40 years.
Most people in the west just watch the Bombs dropping on TV, these people live there.
Paulo Werneck says
I am Brazilian. I suffered two coups sponsored by the US, one in 1964 and other in 2014. I hate US even if I have nothing against most americans that were kind to me in the three times I have been there. The problem is that anaricans suffer from US state. They should find a way to overcome the two major parties and build a true republic.
I agree very much that the West has plundered countries in the Middle East. I was thinking specifically of a country lying along the Mediterranean that indoctrinates small children to hate their neighbors. However, they also have been bombed for their terrorist activities.
Dave Huff says
Like the hatred the left teaches…..
Drones from Taiwan have been sent to Ukrainia. Rumors goes that some Chinese soldiers have also been dispatched in Russia. Anyway, we can feel the expansion of the conflict. China may have a lot at stake here since they may intend to grab Taiwan in less choppy waters within two months
When not bombing, this is what the Russian Air force does in Ukrainian airspace … https://t.me/miaworldwar/53568
Ips Prez says
Hmm, I have my doubts.
Two components here overlooked:
1) Billions to the weapons manufacturers (who might they be?);
2) Potentially hundreds of thousands of white Europeans killed.
What does that tell anyone who is aware of present circumstances?
Too many people are still comparing this to the cold war or calling this conflict a cold war. The cold war has gone hot and kinetic. We are not in a cold war, it stopped being a cold war when Russia moved into Ukraine. It is war between the Empire and the Russian people, the west has openly declared war against Russia with calls for the destruction of the Russian economy and the removal of President Putin. Economic war is still war but the west has pushed beyond this boundary with not only the arming of the Nazis, not Neo-Nazis, they are Nazis as well as the deployment of active duty personal. It is war. Pure and simple. Call them Nazis and this war.
Mike D. says
What is the story with Al Jazeera?
Cato the Uncensored says
It took the American people a decade and nearly 60k flag-draped coffins to get the US Government to give up on Vietnam. Ukraine is just “stuff” paid for with “other peoples’ money.”
It’s really a shame elections don’t really matter anymore. On the bright side, the US doesn’t have a buffoon like BoJo telling Brits they will have to sacrifice at home to support Ukraine. Then again, the only thing stopping an American politician from making such a patently stupid statement are three or four hundred million guns in the possession of American citizens.
When I look at the Vietnam period compared to now, and the differences between how US citizens reacted to the crimes of their government tends to make me happy I’m old and near death.
The protests over the Christmas bombing of the north, Laos, Cambodia, the Mei Lai massacre, among others, raised awareness and outrage strengthening resistance to the war.
Today? The past 20 years? Where is the outrage, or fear of escalation to nuclear war? Are people brainwashed, fearful of government reprisals, apathetic, or just plain old don’t give a shit?
This country is on its last legs. I think the world knows it. I hope the last dance is not painful.
The Swiss says
“It’s really a shame elections don’t really matter anymore.”
What would happen when a greater part of the people wouldn’t pay any taxes anymore? Probably 30 % of all Americans – and the rate is surely similar in Europe til winter – are unhappy about their nation’s fate and the politics of their governement.
Surely – most of them don’t pay high taxes – but anyway: Any state of the world can accept a fiscal boycot – because money is the only thing that matters.
What would happen? Can a state put 2 mio. Americans or Germans or Italians in prison (I know that the US has already the biggest incarceration-rate worldwide)?
Can a state afford to treat law-abiding and God-fearing citizens like terrorists? How would it look like in Youtube, Rumble or Odysee, when the cops take mothers and fathers into prison while their children would cry and moan?
I think a well-organized tax-boycot would be really interesting – and revealing.
Cato the Uncensored says
“What would happen when a greater part of the people wouldn’t pay any taxes anymore? ”
That’s why most Western governments collect taxes from the serf-class via withholding.
You can try barter … that’s probly why Uncle Joe decided tostaff up and militarise the IRS.
Very good read, although I believe RU makes little use of their air advantage overall. I don’t see that Americans are “bamboozled” or any of this media propaganda matters at all. I think Americans have accepted the forever wars, we don’t care with whom or why, we don’t care if it leads to a blinding flash of light. The demoralizing of the American people by both foreign & domestic treasonous wretches is complete. As for “normalcies” with Russia, it was never “normal”, and any “diplomacy” was done simple to either preserve or have an advantage, not out of any desire to actually behave civilized or build a good relationship. As long as the US “got something out of it” diplomacy was available. That’s obvious across the board of our “diplomacy” with other nations. Since the US is obviously “exceptional”, gifted, morally superior… why be diplomatic? I’m not certain Russians have figured out yet how lucky they are that they escaped. American citizens certainly haven’t, we can look forward to a decade of austerity measures, excessive taxation, poor healthcare, lower living standards and continuing wealth divide, as well as woke tyranny garble. Who has time to care about a war on a country no one can find on a map? All the “wars” are just fusing into one long way of life… we’ve been successfully desensitized.
Ukraine has a lot MANPADs, so all these low flying aircraft are not venturing very far.
Attack helicopters have been largely reduced to lobbing unguided rockets from afar because they are easily downed by Ukie short rage airdefense.
Even high flying planes are used sporadically and a standoff weaponry is preferred.
Russia tried its hand at maneuver warfare in the beginning, had high losses and now it is grinding ever so slowly using WWI tactics.
Guderian would shake his head in disapproval.
Maneuver warfare is costly. There’s no way around that and in the age of satellites and drones it is even more costly. Guderian and Zhukov lost a lot of men, even in their victories. This ain’t that.
Christian Chuba says
Another sign that Russia has total air superiority are the declining operations in Ukraine. At the start of the conflict, Ukraine was able to conduct several helicopter raids over Russian territory and now we never hear about any.
This may seem obvious to you but I give that specific example for those who insist that Ukraine is still in that contest. Also, we have not heard about any Russian fixed wing aircraft being shot down for several weeks. To believe the official narrative, you have to believe that Russia has totally abandoned using its air force
Fredrick Herschel says
It’s all about the midterm elections and then the Presidential election. Astonishingly, as great a buffoon as GWB was he actually managed to make the Republicans the War Party. Not so fast GWB say the Democrats as they come roaring back. The only question is whether the supply of Ukrainian men either willing or able to give their lives for the Democratic Party will last until November 2024. The stranglehold the Democratic Party has on the Ukrainian “Government” serves only one purpose: to make sure it does.
Christian Chuba says
BTW I am in the camp of … ‘we get ZERO honest news about this war’, the NATO side is 100% unreliable but I am not convinced by Russian MSM either. This is the first conflict where I believe I have to read in between the lines on everything.
To say that the Russia is winning I expect to eventually see a collapse of the Ukrainian front lines. As long as Ukraine keeps feeding troops and arms into the meat grinder, the lines will remain static because Russia can exhaust Ukraine. But once Ukraine no longer does that then there is no advantage for Russia to remain static. At that point they will rapidly seize the rest of the Donetsk oblast. If that never happens then Russia is struggling.
sir, from the russian perspective the longer this conflict continues the more the west is drained of military resources given to ukraine where they get destroyed, the longer europe become economically no longer viable precipitating a popular groundswell against their governments and nato as well as an animus towards washington for driving this shi-storm forward at their expense.
actually slow walking the death of ukraine works well for russia by using the western elites own stupidity against them
Canuck Pipes says
Agree. Understanding your enemy is vital; the Russians fully understand western (NATO) thinking, how our mil functions, and, more specifically, the lack of critical thinking and understanding of geopolitics within the citizenry of the west. Everything is better in the long run; the Russians know this, and western views or sentiments (MSM) will not influence the Russian timeline. Those that believe Oct 2014 was spontaneous will embarrassingly seek answers on how Ukraine collapsed morally and militarily but do not have the mental ability to do so. It is a shame this war ever started.
Time is of no essence to Russia and the Russian military campaign but it is BIG TIME critical to the U.S. and especially to its European muppets: by slowly, methodically, deliberately destroying the Ukis military Russia achieves it’s two main goals:
1) Demilitarize, and
2) De-Nazify the territory previously known as Ukraine to ensure its own safety for the next 50-100 years.
The difference between doing this in 2 weeks vs. 2 years is:
1) A LOT MORE Russian military will stay alive,
2) Most of the Russian-speaking people and infrastructure in the former Ukraine will be preserved intact (unlike the complete and utter flattening of cities, towns, and villages and killing all its civilians by US military — why? well, because it looks AMAZING on bloody CNN and BBC and the Pentagon goons and the Hollywood shysters could look like incredible “heroes”, and because the US never “liberated” anyone, just grabbed other people’s land and oil as its main objective),
3) More and more western equipment will get destroyed ensuring less and less probability the west will have anything left for yet another “Drang nach Osten”,
4) While SMO is ongoing the so called “west” will freeze, lose most of its manufacturing capacity, and get very poor, and significantly more internally divided and hateful in the meantime…
So, why rush?! Actually, I suspect doing the SMO even more slowly is the objective…
the achilles heal for washington is their ability to emit infinite dollar amounts into the world economy where it is …a: accepted and b: recycled back into american banks and c: us t bonds thereby minimizing the inflation effects here in america while allowing the pentagon to have 1 trillion dollars to blow on over rated techno crap and general waste.
as the world is now increasingly using other than dollars to settle trade and buy oil and gas this ability of washington to fund its hegemony with other people savings is rapidly coming to an end
if there is a single reason why ukraine matters so much it is this continued privilege washington is fighting for and the russians and chinese have said ………..no more.
once washington definitively loses in urkaine the end of dollar dominance will proceed with lighting speed. its demise will be is being proceeded by a huge rise in the value of the dollar via vie other currencies with a few notable exceptions like the rouble. as the dollar reaches its highs over the next year or so the fat lady will be singing for americas lost hegemony
telling the american people the truth is to much to ask.
figure it out yourself or remain as part of the matrix.
Al Jazeera, owned by the Emirate of Qatar has been bought by US $ to mouth the globo capitalistas view. Qatar needs USD to sel its oil. The news organisation has flipped from an initial entirely independent reporting of the Ukraine situation vis a vis Russia & Ukraine, to a completely false Anglo American narrative of Ukraine standing up to ineffectual and unfair Russian aggression.
This war has already been lost by America and NATO in May itself when Mariupol fell – Incredibly Russia is the one that’s not declaring victory because it’s aim is to destroy comprehensively and permanently the Western Hemisphere’s war fighting capabilities and capacity for the next decade at a minimum in terms of men, material and money – The fact that Russia has already killed close to 200K Ukrainian and NATO soldiers ( quaintly called mercenaries) which means close to 400-600K men are wounded with missing limbs and other grevious injuries and more or less permanently out of commission – No country can reproduce nor replace such large numbers quickly – Second from 2014 onwards and accelerating now, NATO would have spend close 80-100 billion in ammunition materials, training, infrastructure, trenches and other defensive equipments etc which has more less been destroyed by Russia – So you are really talking about an investment worth 120-150 billion spend over close to a decade being obliterated over 6 months and Russia still continues to do more of the same – This war has also shown current and future customers how useless western weapon systems truly are which means there will be a tremendous drop in orders while Russia gets those unfulfilled contracts – The loss to the Western world is truly massive and permanent and they realize that and that’s why they are lashing out in their closing death spasms
Canuck Pipes says
Well said, and let’s now forget the mental health issues that will follow these broken men home and be with them for the rest of their lives. Well done, NATO. (sarc)
Larry et al., have you read the article by ‘Marinus’ in the August issue of the Marine Corps Gazette? (Maybe you discussed it with the Duran guys the other day, I got interrupted halfway through your chat and haven’t yet had time to finish listening.)
Corporate media, of course, have studiously ignored it.
Though ‘Marinus’ felt impelled to use a pseudonym, the fact this got published at at all, especially in the MCG, suggests that Kiev’s ’eminence front’ is collapsing and the put-on is about to be laid bare.
It’s behind the Marine Corps Association paywall. I had to set up an account and make a ‘donation’ before I could download the PDF.
He doesn’t use the word ‘feint’ anywhere in the article. Instead he substitutes ‘raid,’ because he says the Russians long ago appropriated the term (as, I surmise, рейд) to describe operations that can differ somewhat from our usage and may, in fact, be what we would call a feint.
‘In the early days of the maneuver warfare debate, maneuverists often presented their preferred philosophy as the logical opposite of “firepower/attrition warfare.” … In the
Russian campaigns in Ukraine, however, a set of operations made mostly of movement complemented one composed chiefly of cannonades.
‘One way to resolve this apparent paradox is to characterize the raids [around Kiev] of the first five weeks of the war as a grand deception that, while working little in the way of direct destruction, made possible the subsequent attrition of the Ukrainian armed forces [on the Donbas front] … [T]he threat posed by the raids delayed the movement of Ukrainian forces into the main [Donbas] theater of the war until the Russians had deployed the artillery units, secured the transporting network, and accumulated the stocks of ammunition needed to conduct a long series of big bombardments. This delay also ensured that, when the Ukrainians did deploy additional formations to the Donbass region, the movement of such forces, and the supplies needed to sustain them, had been rendered much more difficult by the ruin wrought upon the Ukrainian rail network by long-range guided missiles. In other words, the Russians conducted a brief campaign of maneuver in the north in order to set the stage for a longer, and, ultimately, more important, campaign of attrition in the east.’ …
‘From the start, Russian propaganda insisted that the “special military operation” in Ukraine served three purposes: the protection of the two pro-Russian protostates, “demilitarization,” and “denazification.” All three of these goals required the infliction of heavy losses upon Ukrainian formations fighting in the Donbass. None, however, depended upon the occupation of parts of Ukraine where the vast majority of people spoke the Ukrainian language, embraced a Ukrainian ethnic identity, and supported the Ukrainian state. Indeed, the sustained occupation of such places by Russian forces would have supported the proposition that Russia was trying to conquer all of Ukraine.’
Here is a link to the article by Marinus. Click on the image to see the full text:
Who is Marinus?
I expect he’s a senior marine officer, probably a colonel at least, and probably retired. That’s just a guess though.
William Shryver, who runs the imetatronink.com blog transcribed the Marinus’ article (https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/08/a-former-us-marine-corps-officers.html).
Most folks believe Marinus is the USMC Lt. Gen. (ret) Paul K. Van Riper, famous for kicking the asses of those Pentagon dim-wits in 2002 Millennium Challenge war games by acting as, say, one would expect a common sense military commander would do. Those fat rats in Pentagon are used to organizing “war games” when they always win, because I guess they rig their “war games” when they “fight” imbeciles like themselves as opposed to regular armies. And then feeling great about themselves, high-fiving, they go to the nearby Arlington bar to celebrate their victories.
Well, apparently, Van Riper ripped them a new one by acting like he expected Iranians (in this case) would and destroyed their entire attacking multi-billion
dollar wunderwaffe fleet using some penny boats. Quite a story.
Great video Larry, yet the Ukies are close to victory as stated by no other than General Ben Hodges as seen here in French but worth a Google translate:
Meanwhile the French press is today full of articles on the increase of bulk electricity from Euros 85 per kilowatt-hour last year to over 1,000 Euros this week, a sure win.
The UK is also winning the energy war:
Apologies, Megawatt-hour and not KW-hour.
€1.000/MW = roughly 1€/kw at retail; Versus 5 cents 2 years ago.
That’s a 20 time increase
Any hope or chance of repairing international relationships would have to begin with the rooting out of the current elites and, at all levels, their installed “leaders”. Failing this, then the only hope for national redemption would be a miracle, in my opinion.
Jan Masek says
Devil’s advocate: how do we know the video is real? The music, the editting, it looks like a promo video. Just curious what techniques to deploy to know what to trust
Aaron Hilel says
Nevertheless, the air superiority question remains. I completely agree that UKRAF is in ruins, its remaining planes held in reserve for the protection of a very real possibility of final flight of leading thieves from Kiev to Warsaw.
Yet, it does not explain why all we see are ancient Su-25’s randomly tossing 57mm rockets (And firing rockets up on a ballistic trajectory is random), and pretty much nothing else.
Why not load those venerable workhorses with napalm canisters and FAB-250M54’s and just send them to bomb known enemy positions?
Why not send them to interdict railways on Lwov-Vinnitsa-Zhytomir axis?
On the other end of the spectrum, why not take a page from Americans own book, assemble a forty or so TU-22’s and in a few hundred sorties annihilate the fortress complex of Slaviansk-Kramatorsk?
Dan Farrand says
I completely agree. It seems like Russia is operating in a contested airspace which limits their use of airpower. Does not mean Russia is loosing or stalled, but does mean they are having a harder time of it than if their aircraft could operate at altitude attacking targets of opportunity – suppressing artillery in response to real time targeting info etc.
US war planning assumes operating in an uncontested airspace. Does the Russian experience suggest that US planning if unrealistic.
+- 250.000 russian speaking are living there(at least before the war).We all know ukrainians army and even more remaining nazis take human shields. Once Donbass fully liberated it will go much faster as in next 3 big cities(Nikolaev, Odessa and Kharkov) lot of people left for months(in the EU or mainly in Russia.No more defense ‘à la 14-18’ like in Donbass, then it is wide open to Dniepro. Ultimatum will then be given to ZE, capitulate or else..regime change.Will be at spring 2023.When it is time for European to lift their suicidal sanctions or face a second destroying winter, as gas storages happen from end april till oct, for 23-24 winter.
So many people in our neck of the woods just aren’t getting this.
Look at those 40+ year old SU 25’s – battered-looking old trucks going up day after day. Guys getting TONS of flight time and probably just getting better and better at putting those rockets exactly where they want them. I even saw a clip where one of the pilots was flying in his T-shirt; that’s not somebody worried about not returning to base.
All their gear is getting a full workout and while it’s probably not ‘fun’ … it is war after all … their confidence must be soaring. Their stuff works.
Louis Hansell says
The RF owns the Ukrainian airspace, and as recently as yesterday, as Larry detailed from the RF MoD Thursday briefing, hit 5 combat aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force at Mirgorod military airfield in Poltava Region. 1 Su-27 and 1 Su-24 have been destroyed. Another 2 Su-27s and 1 Su-24 suffered critical damage.
The goal of the SMO has described by Putin in the beginning: the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. This is proceeding apace. The RF destroys the enemy at Line 0 and waits for the next challengers. That his generals cannot convince Zelenskyy to allow a retreat, and that the Azov Battalion, Right Sector and Aidar units shoot Ukrainian combatants retreating is just gravy.
Why should the pressure stop? The energy crisis continues, and the refugee crisis around Europe adds to their problems. The west has demonstrated, a la the Minsk Accords, that no agreement can be trusted. So why stop the pressure?
The neocons cannot change direction. Sometime in October, when the bioweapons labs evidence is revealed, the neocons will go for another desperation play. The dissolution of that cabal is the only way this can end.
The USA abandoned diplomacy as a way of dealing with the world as a whole during the pseudo-liberal Clinton administration. With the collapse of the USSR Washington felt there was no longer any need for such “quaint” customs. With Europe under NATO control, the field for US hegemony was clear. Unfortunately, the various bozos in D.C. haven’t noticed any change in the weather.
Early in the conflict, an Australian blogger republished the Iraq War Files. It’s a mysterious document that clearly contains, real Russian intelligence and was supposedly compiled in real time by Russian intelligence agents who may or may not have been full time employees. (Link to blog at the bottom of comment)
It’s fascinating reading on many levels, but the most profound is what lessons Russia took about air power and fighting the US. It concluded that the US was fully dependent on absolute air supremacy. Western media often points to Russia having fewer planes, less seat time for pilots, etc. etc. All the bloviating misses the point. In 03 Russia watched, learned and implemented air defense as a huge proportion of its Air Force. And so in 22, Russia is several generations ahead in air defense systems, realistically nullifying the one significant advantage the US holds.
This is tangential to the piece, with which I agree. I’d add that every time a Ukrainian plane gets in the air anymore it gets shot down immediately. And Russia still requires care in flight but US journalists generally misinterpret why.
Larry and commentators, if you care to see the stupid exhibited by “analysts” at warontherocks and twitter, this thread will provide
The premises are wrong, the conclusions are ludicrous, even the “things i would correct in this article” from the twitterati are completely off the mark. Winning.
The new narrative appears to be that “actually its best to be defensive in modern war” as the reason why the magical offense never happens and Ukraine is definitely still winning.
The Rev. David R. Graham says
Not that long ago, John McCain expressed the general feeling in D.C., that Ukraine was of no strategic interest to D.C.. Now it is. What changed? Prolegomena to an answer:
Since 1947, non-mil USG intel agencies cleared paths at home and overseas for US-based corporations, including schools. In the name of “national security.” This made generations of non-mil USG intel agencies and their conjoined MICIMATT oligarchs take themselves for trans-nationals with identical and interchangeable interests.
In this intel-profit culture, City of London, US-based FIRE concerns (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate), and some others like them accepted global depopulation and rentier-conditioning as cynosures for their operations. The generation of John K. Galbraith and Reinhold Niebuhr led the likes of Paul R. Ehrlich and Anthony Fauci in begetting those cynosures. The words cynosure and cynic share a Greek root meaning “dog.”
Naturally, their minds turned to monopolizing ownership of lands, globe-wide.
Ashkenazy Jews long have been pushing to molest and maul Russia one way or another. That is nothing new. The opportunity to use Ukraine in that role arrived and they took it. That is nothing new with respect to the direction of their march, albeit like a moth to fire.
But there is more to the Ukraine situation than that, and the more is new. It is the desire to depopulate the globe using land monopolization both to satisfy the desire and to exploit results attending its satisfaction. If City of London, US-based FIRE concerns, and others like them want to own Ukrainian land — among the world’s richest and most plentiful — then, sure, for MICIMATT that makes Ukraine — the land itself — of highest strategic interest in D.C. and elsewhere. Politicians and political appointees MICIMATT pay to listen to them listen to them.
This alone explains the headlong, bumptious obduracy of D.C., Westminster and some other chanceries regarding Russia and Her SMO in Ukraine. Their biggest spenders want the land — dirt and everything — called Ukraine. They want it all so they can rent it out, sell its output, use that as collateral for further monopolizations, and take food crop land out of production. Getting Ukrainians and anyone else killed while the land comes under MICIMATT-FIRE control down-pays the same principals’ depopulation program. It’s a twofer.
The Highland Clearances, done to Scots by their own chiefs and English industrialists, were a precursor to this Ukraine Clearances, done by MICIMATT-FIRE concerns acting through mechanisms of government. Donbas was to be cleared to make room for ownership thereof by Vanguard, BlackRock, Blackstone, Monsanto and other so-called transnational organizations, who in any case are buying other parts of Ukraine, from current Kiev officials, on behalf of their oligarchs.
Into the execution of this operation steps Russia. Her gross purpose is to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians and demilitarize / denazify Ukraine. All proper and properly done. But Russia’s subtle purpose is to protect the very land Her Russian-speaking kith and kin own and live on. Also all proper and properly done.
Every action and every handiwork has a gross and a subtle purpose. One should attend the gross purpose while discerning the subtle one. For, from the subtle purpose moves the course of history through the gross purpose.
The gross and subtle purposes of the Russian SMO in Ukraine have been described. The gross purpose of MICIMATT-FIRE principals has been described. What is their subtle purpose? It is to commit suicide by cop — in this case played by BRICS+ — as did their Sicarii ancestors at Masada. They are that unhappy.
I agreed with the one of the earliest Scott Ritter articles that said the early troop movement around Kiev was to tie down the Ukrainian forces there. The early incapacitance of most of the Ukrainian air force made it so the Russians had mobility but the Ukrainians did not. When as others have mentioned, when the Russians had put in place what they needed in the Donbas those troops were withdrawn. I do believe the Ukrainians achieved some tactical success here and there using US satellite data in the first week or so to ambush exposed groups. The exposed 40 kilometer line of tanks and armored vehicles were not hit. In modern warfare, unhindered air attacks can destroy advancing attackers and exposed armor. Look at the first battle the US was in against the Germans in North Africa. The English commanders said to Eisenhower, surely you must have better generals . Enter Patton. Or how NATO had to become the air force for the jihadis before Qaddafi could be defeated. With US intelligence the remaining air defense units of the Ukrainians can still be dangerous. Thus the Russians use much less of its airforce than one would think. Instead it has used its overwhelming superiority in artillery to bludgeon even the hardened defenses of the Ukrainians with small losses to itself in its inexorable but seemingly slow advances.
The western financial interests – in the US and UK especially – know the gig is up and time is running out. They’ve turned the people into cattle to be ruthlessly exploited for big pharma profit. They’re money laundering on a monumental scale in Ukraine – they have been doing this all along but the war is a very useful disguise for outright, undisguised theft. The people ‘running’ this show think they are the smartest people in the room and believe they won’t be held to account, after all, they own the police, the government, the courts…. Pride commeth before a fall.
John Dowser says
“Russia is flying unchallenged (…) close to the terrain”. Is this article making a case for superiority but only at or below 1000 feet? This would mean the Ukrainian tactics of dispersing and hiding SAM, interlinks with foreign radar and hiding the remains of their air force under trees or inside barns has worked very well.
I feel sorry for the soldiers hiding on the ground when these pilots come after them. War is Hell.
Blair T. Longley says
Risk and fun are directly proportional in activities.
It looks an awful lot of fun to be able to fly planes like in the video.
However, I can not imagine being on the other end, being turned in burnt hamburger: “Ukrainian troops on the ground, hunkered down in trenches and bunkers.”
As information replaced power, lies replace violence. The existing systems are based on generation after generation adapting to living inside of sociopolitical systems based on being able to back up lies with violence, which became legalized lies backed by legalized violence.
While being able to enforce frauds achieves symbolic robberies, the distance between the physical versus symbolic grows. Indeed, that structure of enforced frauds necessarily attempts to grow at about exponentially increasing rates of fraudulence.
The systems of incentives for sociopolitical organizations have become perverted at about exponential rates. All across the board, there are similarly perverse funding of the political processes through feedback loops of more and more enforced frauds.
Excessive success based on being able to better enforce bigger frauds becomes psychotic, in the sense that the symbolic versus the physical get further and further apart.
“Once the American people wake up and realize this is now a fool’s errand, the bamboozle will be over. But not completely. The propaganda campaign has poisoned future prospects for normal relations with Russia.”
I find it hard to imagine what it would mean for “the American people to wake up.” However, I certainly agree that demonizing Russia was the single most insane thing which has been done.
As an economist, I am astounded by the scope and sophistication of the Russian military, inasmuch as Russia is “supposed” to have a “GDP” around that of Italy. The U.S. and the West have always failed to understand how the command-and-control aspects of the Russian system work the way they do. Yes, Russia has been gradually adopting a market system for the civilian economy, but their MIC, critical infrastructure, and other sectors seem to remain organized on a centrally planned basis, and remarkably efficiently. Consequently, the West (using faulty market-price based metrics) has long been misled into thinking that Russia was little more than the gas station of Europe (to use Obama’s oft-quoted characterization) .
Russia is proving to be a formidable modern high tech military power, and remarkably resilient in the face of U.S. sanctions. Where was the U.S., CIA, MI6 and other “intelligence” agencies when we needed them to correct this widespread cognitive bias–namely, under-estimating Russia, and over-estimating the prowess of our own technology (e.g. HIMARS, Javelins)? Now we’ve stumbled AGAIN into an unwinnable war. Hubris!
Ken B says
I hate to be an alarmist here but Russian forces still working to clear Peski a village a scant 1 km. from Donestk city. Little wonder the shelling of Donetsk city continues.
Thomas Kroos says
I have been trying to buy tickets to Top Gun 2.5 but I can’t get my hands on any. I am starting to suspect supply chain issues or maybe global warming, not sure yet
Michael Biggs says
My thinking is that the slow pace of the Russian offensives in Ukraine is because its goal is not to conquer the areas under attack but to ABSORB them. This goal, never formally declared, is to eventually make them part of the Russian Federation … the Russian Mir. Why else give Russian passports, pensions, and cell phone/internet infrastructure to the civilian populations in these regions?
Putin is very coy about this because he does not want any of these people to feel they have been conquered. They have been carefully freed with due respect for their dignity, human rights, and their futures as well as the futures of their families.
That said, ABSORBTION requires an incredible logistical effort on the part of Russia to support recently conquered lands to give the people the support that they expect — safety, peace, and prosperity from Mother Russia. Indeed, this effort might take, I would think, twice the manpower as a simple exercise in conquest.
This also severely restricts Russia’s ability to employ unrestricted destruction on Ukrainian forces holding up within civilian populations as the Ukro-Nazis use civilians as shields against a Russian advance. We might expect a completely different operational pace when Russian forces break out of the densely populated and urbanized Donbas and onto the relatively empty Ukrainian steppes.
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