When someone is telling you how important he or she is, it is a pretty good indicator that person is not terribly relevant. I think the same principle applies to the CIA, who in the last week is bragging through sources that thanks to the Agency’s intel the Ukrainians are whacking a dozen Russian Generals and sinking the Moskva. There was a time when the CIA actually tried to keep secrets and shied away from advertising its hidden helping hand.
During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s the CIA was given the mandate of arming and training Islamic fighters eager to expel the Russians. While I am sure that the Soviets knew what the the CIA was doing in general terms, the public was kept in the dark during that period, especially when the CIA started arming the Mujahedin with Stinger missiles and Soviet helicopters started falling from the skies.
That is not the CIA today. There is open talk about training Ukrainian paramilitaries in guerrilla war, supplying weapons and passing on critical intelligence to Ukraine that is then used to attack Russian targets. Instead of empowering the Ukrainian military, this kind of leak makes them appear weak. They cannot fight the Russians on their own. Nope. They need Uncle Sugar to give them their armament fix. If you are the power behind the throne then you should keep that quiet. Silence helps protect your privileged position.
I believe that Russian intelligence professionals are scratching their heads trying to figure out what the hell America is really doing. They probably are wondering if this leaking of sensitive information is actually a clever capitalist plot to get Russia to chase imaginary squirrels? Or are the Americans just plain incompetent?
I side with the incompetence explanation. CIA Director William Burns latest public remarks is a case in point:
CIA Director Bill Burns warned on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has staked a lot on the second phase of his war in Ukraine and believes that “doubling down” on the military conflict is still his best path forward.
It is this mindset, Burns said, that makes the second phase of the offensive at least as risky — and maybe even riskier — than the first phase of the conflict.
“He’s in a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose,” Burns said about Putin during a Financial Times event in Washington. “I think he’s convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress.”
“His convictions about Ukraine and the reality of Russia’s capability to continue to grind away at Ukrainian resistance — I don’t know whether that’s been shaken yet,” he added. “So the stakes are quite high.”
The disconnect from reality displayed by Burns is frightening. Putin has been very clear in public about his intentions in Ukraine–demilitarize and de-Nazify. Burn’s assertion that Putin is doubling down is based on the false conclusion that Ukraine beat back the Russian offensive (i.e. Phase I) and that the Russians are now desperate to salvage victory from the wreckage of defeat.
With that in mind, consider today’s events in the Donbas and the Crimea.
Cauldron is a cool military term for encirclement. Why call surrounded troops a “cauldron”? We have the Germans to thank for this term. “Kessel” is the German word for “cauldron” and that term was used by German generals to describe the result of surrounding opposing military forces.
Russian military doctrine uses the word “cauldron” to describe a very large, strategic-level concentration of trapped enemy forces. This differs from the terms used to describe the encirclement of an operational unit (such as an isolated battalion) or a tactical unit (a company sized element). The Russians refer to those as Sack (i.e. meshok) and Nest (gnezdo) respectively.
Russian sources are reporting (and Ukrainian sources are not denying) that a major breakthrough came today in Popasnaya, with the Ukrainian Armed forces withdrawing to the west toward Kramatorsk. Take a look at the following map:
I have circled the city of Lisichansk, which is co-located with the city of Sieverodonetsk. There is a large Ukrainian army force dug in around Sieverodonetsk and they now face an increased risk of being cooked in a Russian cauldron when the troops that captured Popasnaya link up with Russian forces moving south from LYMAN (it is north of Kramatorsk).
This map provides a better overview of the location of the Ukrainian army (circled in yellow) and the movement of the Russian forces (red, what else?):
The Ukrainian units are not completely cut off. Some supplies have gotten thru but not enough to put Ukraine in a position to mount a credible counter attack. A key indicator to monitor in the coming week is whether these Ukrainian forces dig in or conduct a tactical withdrawal to the west.
One thing is clear–the fighting is brutal. The following video claims to show triumphant Chechen soldiers (they are muslims) walking unmolested through the ruins of Popasnaya. They have no fear chanting, “God is Great.” I think their claim to have captured the city is credible because they are not being gunned down by snipers. If you look at the burnt out high rises surrounding them, there are numerous places a stubborn Ukie sniper could hide.
Russian sources also published a video showing a “BEFORE” and “AFTER” status of a structure that housed members of the AZOV battalion. The young guys are upbeat and enjoying themselves. The muscular guy that comes out of door flexing his guns is shouting “WAR” AND “SUKA” “KILL THEM ALL”. The Russians claim he was “de-nazified.”
The Russians also continue to pound Odessa. The accompanying photo shows the smoking aftermath of at least three missile strikes:
Press reports out of Odessa indicate the missiles hit the airport and destroyed recently arrived NATO military equipment. That is not desperation. That is acting on a promise.
One major detrimental factor undermining the Ukrainian military are the Ukrainian criminal organizations. Every piece of western armament and supplies that are intended for the Ukrainian military are being pilfered by Ukraine’s version of the mafia. The same applies to humanitarian aid. When it comes to making a buck in the black market, especially selling guns, ammunition and bombs, the Ukrainian criminal gangs are super-capitalists with real muscle. Just listen to this pro-Ukrainian “influencer”, Snyatovskaya, voice her outrage at the theft. She names Mayor of Odessa, Anatoly Vorokhaev, as one of the profiteers:
At some point, the American people will awaken to the fact that our attempt to arm and feed Ukraine has enriched criminal gangs who could care less who runs Ukraine as long as they can profit. They know the value of a dollar and a ruble. War transforms a black market into a super market on steroids. In my experience, these black market activities are enabled by well-connected foreigners and corporations. This criminals always need a bank or tangible goods for storing their profits. Follow the money.
Thanks for the Post! Great information very informative.
Another great post! My amateur estimate is that by June 1 the Ukrainian military will totally collapse, as well as great declines in the food supply for all those in Ukrainian held territory – they can’t ship that much in by truck. The propaganda will then be totally obvious to adults as well as children. I therefore posit that a huge false flag must come soon – so huge that it will shock the sheep into believing again – possibly have an excuse to impose a suicidal for NATO pilots”no fly” zone, even NATO troops on the ground.
What say you?
A very plausible scenario. I agree with your analysis.
…but are they irresponsible enough to risk it? History suggests that they are however as evil as I believe they are, are they that stupid and arrogant that they would risk putting it all-in with a weak a hand as they have?
My amateur analysis:
I don’t see the US elevating to get NATO directly involved, no matter what happens. There are billions of dollars to steal, from Russian foreign reserves and assets to humanitarian aid, cash and weapons. The MIC is living the dream; no need for expensive disposal of obsolete weapons, and the cash will flow to restock. Not to mention finishing the job of making Europe our cash cow. Too big an escalation might cause some key Europeans to come to their senses. Ukraine is a grift and timely false flags will keep that grift grinding.
The USA will continue the strategy of regime change, terrorism, proxy wars, threats and sanctions to counter SCO, BRI, and other China/Russia initiatives, rather than get bogged down in open war with a war machine that is badly broken after 20 years of the war on terror grift. (See Pakistan recent regime change and terrorist attacks on Chinese workers)
But in reality? Decades of “fail upwards” leadership policy has finally come home to roost . Any outcome is possible.
I don’t think we’re that stupid!
I’m absolutely incompetent, but it would be nice to see it clearly. I like to read what you write.
We’re great, powerful beings, why label yourself?
Thanks again Larry for breaking down a difficult issue.
I really appreciate the feedback.
Thanks. Very insightful.
The more I read about this whole scenario the more it conjures up images of Ukraine resembling South Vietnam with a likely similar outcome.
maybe during the 1974-1975 offensive
There is no comparison between Vietnam and Ukraine, not even close. Vietnam was essentially a guerrilla war on the part of the communists, even after the North Vietnamese took it over. Compared to Ukraine, they were lightly armed. South Vietnam had a well-equipped, well-trained military. It was after the US pulled out – two years in fact – that North Vietnam launched a conventional armored attack that finally succeeded in defeating the South Vietnamese, who had been abandoned by the United States and Australia. Ukraine has (or had) a well-equipped military and an air force and navy. This is a conflict more along the lines of the Soviets against the Germans,
australian contribution in vietnam is so microscopic unless you read australian history books that always glorify their contribution to world events/conflicts or should i call it as it is : boasting
south korea have far more contribution
You are one hell of a writer/analyst. Always straight to the essential points!
Kudos!
it come to this , when usually history was written after the conflict ended , now it is written to suit western narrative and with the whole MSM behind it and weak minded sheeple in the west believing in it why not making up fake victories no matter what is the ground truth on the conflict ?
cheaper to invent stories no matter how absurd it is , because many US Sheeple are in to deep drowning on decades of kool aid.
Sadly you are right. By the time the real truth comes out, no one will pay attention or care. Examples abound, The Tonkin Gulf incident, all the Iraq war lies – too numerous to list here but we here all know what they were – 911, JFK, RFK, MLK, the truth is out there for anyone to see but who cares?
I do however see that the mainstream is having a much more difficult time supporting the narrative, mainly because the narrative is becoming more and more absurd by the day. I see people spontaneously red-pilling mainly by total BS overload.
I am looking forward to Biden’s Ministry of Truth and the idiot in charge, it will be so ridiculous and over the top that it will red-pill millions more all by itself. If you are moderately sentient, somewhere atrophied brain cells will start to flicker to life all on their own.
I thank God for sites like this and people like Larry who spread the truth in ways impossible to dispute.
i think the 1st iteration of this ministry of truth will be disregarded as joke due to the woman selected for it , but it is the 2nd or 3rd iteration of this ministry of truth that will be serious information control department and by that time it will be too late for ordinary american to realize this is not about stopping trump or maga crowd but this is about stopping everyone in US and west for having different opinion than the govt
foolish sheeple in US who wear ukrop flag and sing slava ukraini will be steamrolled too
It is no doubt the plan. Ratchet up the oppression in stages. Maybe the choice of Jankowicz is strategic banking on the fact that no one will take her seriously, then drop the hammer. Very plausible, but a dangerous game for them. Because instead of accepting that the next iteration is necessary they have demonstrated by the current iteration that it is not.
It might work if they do it skillfully enough however I personally don’t believe they are smart enough to pull it off.
We shall see. But in the meantime we can use ridicule as a potent weapon.
What we see in the media today is not history, it’s propaganda. There have been reports from wars dating back to the American War of Northern Aggression at least. The Vietnam War, more recent, was fought on the Six O’Clock News. What is somewhat different today is the prevalence of social media, which is basically worthless since it lacks context and is influenced by propaganda. I read RT and Sputnik. They’re called “Russian propaganda” but they’re no more so than Western propaganda, if that. By the way, 12 Russian generals haven’t killed. Only two have been reported. The 12 claim – like everything else – is Ukraine propaganda.
My feeling is that the western government are acting like children who have no idea what they are playing with while wallowing in an epic state of absolute denial.
CIA claims of “dozens of dead Russian generals” are certainly attempts at disinformation. It would not be possible for Russia or anyone else to cover up such a thing.Putin has plenty of enemies behind the scenes just waiting for a political opportunity to push him out in favor of true hard-liners. So am with you on calling out the CIA’s BS on most of this.
The saying however is that “it is too stupid to just be merely stupid” comes to mind and it has me wondering that Washington’s real goal here. I know Brussels has no goal other than to follow orders but who the hell is really in charge here?
Some believe it the Davos bunch pulling all the strings in DC and the EU, but they have never showed much competence in the past, so how could they get everyone aboard this train of idiocy?
Are they evil enough to sacrifice all these people just to over up their own crimes, after all it is indisputable that Ukraine has been a nexus for everything from money laundering to child sex trafficking, gun and drug running, but it seems more than that. My guess is that it has to do with the biolabs. I friend with a PhD in a relevant area says that some of the documents the Russians have found suggest that Covid was cooked in Ukraine originally. If this is so then China can be exonerated and the west end up holding the bag for a planned of release of a deadly bio substance? Does this sound too crazy to be true? For the sake of argument lets say there is some truth to that, what would be the worldwide reaction? Severe enough to justify these extreme measure to cover it up? It might be the only thing. The aforementioned crimes are heinous to be sure but frankly not all that uncommon in a number of places. So whatever is the reason it has to bigger than that.
But from the Russian standpoint, I agree with them, Nazi’s with nukes and bioweapons is unacceptable anywhere.
I do however can say one thing, I wouldn’t trust what the CIA says (or deliberately leaks) publicly as far as I could urinate through a reinforced concrete wall.
Update by way of The Saker
From the Russian Mod: “Thanks to unprecedented measures taken by the leadership of the Russian Federation, with the active participation of representatives of the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, humanitarian operation to evacuate civilians from Azovstal plant is now complete.”
There still are rumors of high level military in the plant but humanitarian corridors are closed. A group of reportedly about 1,000 soldiers walked out with white flag. The Russians have taken into custody enough people now to be able to stitch together who else is down there. We wait, with a good level of inquisitiveness, for some perp walks.
“At some point, the American people will awaken ….”
They are on to the new narrative, Roe v Wade and the discrediting of the Supreme Court and organized religion. Protests outside churches on mothers day? Check. Organized protests outside the homes of Supreme Court Justices? Check (but not outside the “wise latina’s” or others known to be left leaning). The left’s neo-Bolshevik tactics continue. Cutting Ukraine’s funding when a collapse comes? They’ll just erase that history like they are doing with “two weeks to slow the spread”.
I was intending to comment on your previous post but this one appeared. It appears to me that the Russians are setting a trap for the Ukrainian military – and they seem to have walked right in it. The plan seems to be to draw the Ukrainians into rural areas away from towns and cities and trap them against rivers, then pound them with air and artillery. That was what Westmoreland called a “set-piece battle” which he tried to set up in Vietnam but was never able to do it because North Vietnamese tactics were to strike then disappear. You can do that in jungle but not in open farmland.
Also, I’ve been wondering about the Javelin missiles. I know they do wonders and slice bread but just how difficult are they to use? A Winchester Model 70 30/06 rifle is deadly in the hands of an accomplished marksman but only a fraction of soldiers are accomplished marksmen. The Javelin weighs 50 pounds or so, which is a lot more than a 10-pound rifle, and I understand that the shooter has to acquire the target in the sight and lock-on prior to launching the missile. It’s “fire and forget” but that only means it doesn’t have to be guided to the target. I understand that the US requires two weeks of training for Javelin operators and I doubt that more than a handful of Ukrainians have been trained in their use.
From The Saker update:
**
Becoming more clear now is that the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are using the conflict in Ukraine in order to get rid of obsolete and decommissioned weapons. Rubbish is being brought to the Ukraine, and then the Russians destroy it. This is now obvious. The disgusting quality of the Javelin anti-tank missile systems (ATGM) supplied by the United States and the Swedish-British portable anti-tank guided missiles NLAW were recently reported by a prisoner –
Vadim Zholko, a soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “Their Javelin and NLAW grenade launchers, which were very much advertised, showed themselves in practice as they really were. There were misfires. They usually shoot one out of four, ”said the prisoner. The fired projectiles explode at fifty meters before reaching the target, or do not work at all. “That is, there were many of those whose batteries were expired,” the prisoner of war shared his impression of what he saw. The man complained that the training at the training grounds was mainly theoretical – “they showed it in a fast way.” Why misfires regularly occur was not explained to recruits. The reason became clear during the fighting – most of the batches of weapons had an expired shelf life. Cheaper NLAW complexes also turned out to be far from perfect.,***
“At some point, the American people will awaken to the fact that our attempt to arm and feed Ukraine has enriched criminal gangs who could care less who runs Ukraine as long as they can profit. ”
With respect, I don’t agree. Most Americans are either clueless or disengaged completely. The amount of anti-Russian propaganda that has taken over since 1997, which accelerated tremendously with the advent of Trump, is unbelievable.
The late Dr. Stephen Cohen pointed out that even during the worst of the Cold War, you had significant and vigorous dissent as to how to handle the Soviets. Don’t you remember that, Larry? He lamented that this had all but shriveled up by 2016. Cohen pointed out that “Russians evil” was simply taken for granted, and there was no one to talk with.
Now we’re in an open proxy war with the Russians. There’s always a next step. Russians With Attitude suggested quite logically that the next step would be a response in kind: no American general in the field is safe. We have 750 bases around the world. US generals are desk jockeys but the commanding officer of a base is fair game. I know this is a horrible thing to say – but isn’t targeting Russian generals and bragging about it horrible?
William Burns statement that “He’s in a frame of mind in which he doesn’t believe he can afford to lose” is as clear a case of projection as one is ever likely to see. It is the United States that fears a humiliating defeat, and coming on the heels of the Afghanistan debacle, it would be especially humiliating.
As for the CIA bragging about its supposed contributions to the cause of defeating Russia, I think it is most likely aimed at a domestic audience that wants to believe that the US is doing more than simply providing weapons to the Ukraine military. Is it really necessary for them to do this? Of course not, but they’re at a loss to do much more, so why not tell big lies? That’s an area where they have tremendous experience.
The glee and gloating of the war profiteers is nauseating but obvious and predictable: link to a very pro-trump site but not evident in this article about CEO of Lockheed and the shills at CBS:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/08/sunday-talks-lockheed-martin-ceo-says-business-booming-under-biden-administration-expecting-increased-conflict-in-europe-north-korea-iran-and-tiawan/
Good reports from Larry on caudrons but I would hope that when this is over, the tragedy of these impending blood baths of the rank and file of Ukrainian military will be laid at the feet of the zionists in state dept/cia, buydem admin, and israel.
They do not give a flying f*ck for the average ukrainian, his or her family with urge/command not to surrender while the country is being destroyed.
I would hope that zelenski, and his direct handler kolomolsky enjoy their billions covered in the blood of the ukrainian grunt. (sarc).
This obviously excludes the azovs/nazis et al who must be destroyed.
Just saying, not to take away from the justified and rational Russian demand that the country be de-militarized and de-nazified.
You see, I don’t really think Moskva sunk because of Ukrainian missile attack.
Russians say the ship sunk because a fire broke out within the ship, the ship didn’t sink right away and she sunk while being towed by the Black Sea Fleet.
The Pentagon initially concurred with the Russian claim, but abruptly changed the story, saying it was indeed the Ukrainian military that sunk the ship. Isn’t it strange? With all the satellite networks and cutting-edge technology the US military has, don’t you think they could have known right away if it was an internal fire or missile strike that happened to that ship?
There are no satellite photos of Moskva being hit, or after she got hit by missiles.
There are no videos of Ukrainian military in Odessa firing missiles at Moskva.
There are no combat footage.
My guess is that it really was an unfortunate accident and the CIA and the Pentagon leadership changed the story because they desparately want a “victory” for Ukrainians. Their “Ukraine winning” narrative has been utterly shattered, and they need a bullshit story to salvage what’s left of that narrative.
But I could be wrong, if you find any of the photos or videos I mentioned above please let me know.
Vast majority of the crews of Moskva survived the sinking, so there’s that.
I have to lean in your direction. The first story was that it was a fire that ignited the ammunition stores. Could have been sabotage, but the Neptune missile doesn’t seem to track, since it appears the damage was below the water line which eliminates the missile theory. Also the defensive countermeasures on the Moskva were more than adequate to deal with a Neptune.
I speculate that it could have a mine, the Ukes laid them everywhere and many broke free.
The Washington Compost even did a story about Ukraine mines washing up on beaches. [Paywall]
Ukraine’s venerable Odessa mines Black Sea beaches for …
https://www.washingtonpost.com › world › 2022 › 03 › 04 › ukraine-russia-odessa-black-sea
Mar 4, 2022ODESSA, Ukraine — The beach where locals and tourists sunbathe in the summer is now covered in mines. The sand is being shoveled into sacks that can be used as both roadblocks and glass.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/21/Hundreds-of-mines-from-Ukraine-drift-into-Black-sea-Russia-intelligence-sources
I agree. The pictures of three vessels known to be hit with missiles have a classic blow out of the side wall from the inside explosion. The hole left by the missile creates a path of least resistance for the explosion. See the Stark, the Sheffield and the target ship from an Indian BrahMos.
The Moskva does not seem to possess these classic side blow outs, but in all fairness there really is no good photo evidence of the Moskva for comparison purposes.
I always appreciate your insight on the economic angle of war. You may be the only one discussing it.
I have not seen a good photo of Moskva’s side, so I can’t dispute either claim.
A two cruise missile hit would have very likely resulted in a high loss of life. Burn off of remaining propellant creates lot of toxic gasses. (See Stark incident). Superstructure scorching could come from either SSM hit or major engine room fire.
If both SSM hit in the same area the damage would so weakened the hull structure that she would have possibly sunk faster than she did.
A good clue is that rescue vessels remained in the area to pick up the crew and take her under tow, a time consuming effort. Apparently the rescuers didn’t see a risk of follow up attack.
My bet is engine room fire.
I also bet that the neocons seized on this event to made false claims of US involvement to goad the Russians and paint DoD into a neocon corner; the slightly saner DoD quickly denied involvement. DC games!!
I love those before and after videos. Thank you Larry.
It does look like there are several instances of the ukro-nazis preparing false flags. 🙁
They’ve mined a dam by a main thermal power plant in the Donestsk region, which if blown would flood 5 settlements and about 5000 people.
Apparently they’re impersonating Russian forces and marauding/pillaging in a settlement still under ukie control.
And this could be catastrophic:
Russian MoD:
Ukrainians are constructing fortified areas and rigging with explosives large containers with industrial chemicals that they plan to blow up when the Russian army approaches the chemical production plants in Severodonetsk, Lisichansk & Rubizhny
Totally evil shit!