My apologies — this was written by Observer R. I was out of pocket all day and just discovered my mistake.
INTRODUCTION
This paper is written to help address a recurring question concerning the Ukraine conflict: whether Russia is moving fast enough to finish its Special Military Operation (SMO)? In order to do this, the paper covers certain selected historical periods in the operation where Russia might have made different decisions affecting the scope and pace of the SMO. Material is added to tentatively help explain the reasons why Russia chose to do one thing and not another. More background information is added to partially cover the United States involvement. While the first part of the paper takes an historical approach, the second part addresses upcoming events and situations that will require difficult decisions by both governments. These decisions will impact the speed at which the entire world moves in the direction of World War III.
HISTORICAL
Back in 2014, the US made the decision to implement the regime change finale in Ukraine that the US had spent some $6 billion on over the years in preparation, according to reports. Russia had to decide on several things at that point. One was whether to intervene in the fashion that Russia did years later in Kazakhstan by flying in a military force and rounding up the coup-plotters and then going home in a week. Russia also could have supported the democratically elected president of Ukraine after he fled to Russia by setting up a government-in-exile. Something like when the president of Yemen was overthrown and fled to Saudi Arabia. In the latter case, it became hard to tell which government the press was referring to, the one in exile or the de facto one in Sana. It is interesting that Poland has recently set up Belarus government-in-exile composed of opposition politicians from Belarus. In any event, Russia decided not to take advantage of the propaganda potential of a Ukraine exile government, which could have showcased the US claiming to support democracy, while overthrowing a democratic government. Russia also decided not to use its military to nip the problem in the bud, presumably for many good reasons. One likely reason was that Ukraine reportedly had the largest army in Europe at the time, some 800,000 troops, even exceeding the 500,000 of Turkiye.
Another reason may have been that Russia had been oriented toward Europe since the time of Peter the Great, and Putin had recently been promoting the concept of Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. A Russian military response in Ukraine likely would have been a poor public relations move at the time and could have brought about counter-measures by the West that Russia was not yet prepared for. Instead, Russia organized the Minsk agreements to attempt a peaceful resolution to the separatist movements. It appeared that Russia was supporting the Ukraine separatists at the minimum necessary level, and that Russia mainly concentrated on securing Crimea and the extremely important naval base in Sevastopol.
The Minsk agreements, however, were not implemented by the West, nor by Ukraine. The Western politicians later stated that it was a ruse to give NATO time to arm and train the Ukrainian army. This was a decision to set up a NATO army on the border with Russia, despite many strategists in the West who had warned against this very provocation. There were many complaints on the Russian side that forceful actions should have been taken much earlier against the Ukraine build-up. Also that the Russian leadership had been fooled by the West. Other viewpoints were that Russia had also used the eight years to build up its forces and had needed the time just as much as NATO/Ukraine. Outsiders do not know the extent of Russian military preparation during this time period, nor how far along Russia was in preparing for the certain economic headwinds if war broke put. However, it was in 2018 that Putin made his speech about all the new “wonder weapons” that Russia had developed. Presumably, many of these weapons were still in testing, factories needed to be built to produce them, and more time was needed to get them delivered to the front lines and the troops trained to use them..
By 2021, decisions needed to be made. The NATO/Ukraine had developed what was reported to be the largest army in Europe and Russia had deployed some of its very advanced weapons. The Minsk agreements were obviously not working, and Russia only continued to refer to them as part of its legal maneuvering. Washington had decided to continue on its goal of world hegemony and had prepared public opinion to believe that Putin was a dictator and that Russia was simultaneously a gas station in the wilderness and a number one enemy. Logic was not a strong point in Washington. It must have seemed to the West that the time was ripe to strike against the Ukraine separatists, and at the same time to go ahead with whatever regime-change measures could be brought to bear against the Russian government. The plan would be to have the Ukrainian army punch through to the Russian border and Russia would be too destabilized to counter the attack effectively. From the West’s standpoint, it would not be aggression, because Ukraine was only mopping up a civil war inside Ukraine.
On the other side, the Russians seemed to have pretty much the same viewpoint that things had come to a head. In December 2021, Russia issued the famous so-called “Not-Ultimatum” to Ukraine and the West which called for the negotiation of a European Security Arrangement that would satisfy Russia’s minimum requirements and avoid unspecified consequences. The West refused to take the idea seriously and continued to arm Ukraine and build up forces next to the separatist areas. Russia then went ahead with the “consequences.” Putin immediately signed papers incorporating some of the separatist provinces as part of Russia based on earlier plebiscites. This legal maneuver meant that Russia could claim that it was protecting Russian territory when evicting the Ukrainian army. Another difficult decision was made to have Russia strike first to create confusion in the Ukrainian side. This meant that the West received a propaganda bonus by claiming that since Russian troops were in Ukraine, Russia was the aggressor. The role of the neo-Nazi forces in Ukraine and the nasty actions of the Ukrainian forces against the separatists had been deleted from Western news, thus leaving Russia on the propaganda defensive. However, Putin was able to arouse patriotic fervor in Russia, in part helped by the nasty actions by the Ukraine army against Russian POWs.
The US decided to go forward with its anti-Russian campaign, with sanctions and the demonization of all things Russian. An outside observer could relate it to the famous US attempt to change the name of “French fries” to “Freedom fries” when France refused to endorse one of the US military invasions. In any event, the US actions made it easier for Putin to begin a more general mobilization for the war effort, call up reservists, and to rapidly build up weapons output. There were calls again from Russian supporters to speed up the war and for Russia to go on the offensive in the hope that Ukraine could be knocked out of action quickly, thus saving lots of lives and infrastructure. The hope of this group was that it would show the West that the effort against Russia was not going to succeed and negotiations toward a new security architecture could proceed. The opposing view was that a big offensive by Russia would enable the Western propaganda to scare the Europeans and create greater unity in NATO. This view claims that cracks in NATO are getting wider all the time and that the EU is more and more dysfunctional—so why interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake?
FUTURE
The NATO meeting in Vilnius is coming up on July 11, and both NATO/Ukraine and Russia may try to take actions before the meeting to improve their positions. The West appears to be calling for Ukraine 1) to launch a new and improved offensive in the war to gain some sort of victory before the NATO meeting in order to gain more weapons support from NATO, or 2) to hold its reserve forces back to promote a stalemate and a negotiated ceasefire line similar to the one in Korea. The latter would allow Ukraine to remain in the Western orbit, continue to rearm, maybe gain NATO membership someday, and allow the Western financial behemoths to control valuable assets in Ukraine.
This outcome does not work well for Russia, however, since it leaves most of Ukraine as a de facto NATO country and lacks any revision to the European security system. There is no guarantee that it would even stop the shelling of the separatist areas in the long run. Furthermore, Russia has made it plain that it does not consider the West to be “agreement capable,” making it hard to have productive negotiations. The Not-Ultimatum called for the de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine, and the effective removal of NATO from the former Warsaw Pact nations. That is a tall order, and whether it would be better for Russia to strike hard and fast, or to go slow and wait for larger fissures to develop in the NATO members, is a difficult decision. Putin will be blamed either way.
The US has even more decisions to make. Part of the Establishment advocates defeating Russia first, then using its resources to help the West contain China. This group apparently believed that Russia was weak enough that the Ukraine War, the extensive sanctions, turning the ruble into rubble, and the disconnects from SWIFT and the credit card systems, would bring about a regime change and another Yeltsin-like government. A different part of the Establishment believed that another approach was better: get Russia on the side of the West voluntarily and then all-together deal with China. This approach is growing more noticeable, along with calls to end the Ukraine War and use the money elsewhere, as in the Indo-Pacific area. The so-called “Realist School” of foreign policy has placed China as the “peer competitor” of the US and that China needs to be confronted based on a balance-of-power approach. A small non-Establishment group finds fault with both ideas. This mess needs to be sorted out, as it is hard to have an effective foreign policy or war in the midst of such confusion.
Adding even more to the confusion is the role of the Globalists, World Economic Forum, Davos Crowd, and assorted billionaires promoting some sort of “New World Order.” These folk do not seem to have much loyalty to any particular nation, rather seem to be cosmopolitan citizens of the world. Their often utopian ideas do not seem to be all that popular in parts of the world, thus there is a suspicion that military force might need to be used at some time. However, currently armies are based on nationalism and patriotic support from a single country. There is no global army supported by a global government or global citizens to tax and draft. It is a chicken-and-egg problem: which comes first—the government or the army? NATO is still a creature run by the US and supported by the US. So the thought is that the Globalists would have to use the US army, since both Russia and China show little interest in any such new order. The problem is that the US army is suffering adversity in many areas, from weapons that are not effective, to not being able to recruit enough soldiers. Critics claim that “Wokeism” is to blame for part of the troubles and that “Wokeism” is promoted by the Globalists. Of course, the supporters of Wokeism claim just the opposite. However, if the critics’ view has any factual validity, then there is a conundrum: The Globalists would need to use the US military to enforce adoption of their new order, but at the same time the US military is being hamstrung by the Globalists forcing adoption of Wokeism in the US.
So the US has some hard choices to make concerning Wokeism, immigration, national debt, student debt, education, and much else. There is also the question of what to do with aircraft carriers, stealth destroyers, stealth aircraft, air defense systems, and the roughly 800 military bases in foreign countries. An immediate puzzle is what weapons and support to send to Ukraine. F-16 fighter planes and Abrams tanks are only part of the issue; Ukraine is now asking for F-18 and European Typhoon planes. Next could be requests for the F-35? Military officials all over the world are looking to see how well the US weapons perform in a real conflict with Russia.
It is not surprising that Washington cannot come up with a coherent grand strategy, or even cope with the questions and troubles that are piling up. The bleak outlook evident in John Mearsheimer’s recent manifesto is apparent in the title: The Darkness Ahead: Where the Ukraine War Is Headed. A similar pessimism is found in the current Foreign Affairs article by Samuel Charap, of RAND Corporation, entitled: An Unwinable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine.
As for Russia, in addition to the decision points mentioned above, there is the question of what to do in the other war theaters, in places like West Asia, Africa and Latin America. How much should Russia support a reformulated Wagner Group in various countries? Should Russia turn Syria loose to attack Israeli jets when they are bombing Damascus, or help Syria destroy the oil tankers smuggling the black gold out of the country? Should Russia work with Iran to help evict the US from Iraq? How about increased support to other countries that are under US pressure, such as North Korea, Yemen, Cuba, Venezuela, etc? There are many places in the world where Russia could turn up the heat on the US interests and cause even more trouble for Washington. Weapon sales and military training, countering US-supported regime changes, spreading alternative money transfer and credit card systems around the globe, and working with OPEC+ to counter US oil interests are other possibilities for Russian “hybrid warfare.” Russia has an extensive menu going beyond the action in Ukraine, and in many cases China would be happy to join in.
Finally, it is widely acknowledged that a declining empire is a dangerous beast and should be handled carefully. On this ground, analysts suggest that both Russia and China should be careful to not poke the beast too hard, lest it go berserk with rage. So far, both countries appear to be keeping this advice in mind.
When I look at US’s position in Syria, with its troops land-locked and surrounded by enemies, I am surprised large-scale attempts to attack them have not been made. Mass casualties there would certainly embarrass and politically hurt the DC-bubble neocons.
Perhaps instead its a sign of Russia’s great restraint, re-established Christian identity, and unwillingness to escalate violence.
Great piece Larry. Enumerated like this, the US doesn’t have a lot of options. The possibility of the RF engaging in Hybrid warfare in these other spheres hadn’t even occurred to me. I think chess analogies are overused but, if i may permit myself, it seems Russia has played the perfect containment game here and has placed the US in zugswang. Russia don’t have to do anything explicit at the moment – the US are going to play themselves into difficulty.
Well said, and a great piece from Larry
Putin did not request an unconditional NATO-retreat from Eastern Europe. The proposal was for both sides to remove their forces and their nukes from the border, creating a broad military and nuke-free safety zone across Europe.
From NATO point of view, taking even a half step back is considered “unconditional NATO-retreat from Eastern Europe”. As famous ancient Greek philosopher would say: “They have no reverse gear”.
“Russia has an extensive menu going beyond the action in Ukraine, and in many cases China would be happy to join in.”
If I were calling the shots in either China or Russia, I would hack the American EBT system. I’ve held it as a working assumption for years that both have done so. The frolicsome scampering antics of our diversity will make what is happening in France look positively Amish in its sobriety. We all live together in a glass house soaked in kerosene, surrounded by uncleared forests in all directions with dried undergrowth piled up like kindling. These idiot globalists really should leave the rest of the world alone. This isn’t a video game, and the globalists are not going to savescum their way to victory.
At this point I believe that Russia’s strategy is to bleed NATO (U.S.) dry until Ukraine / NATO throw in the towel. They engage Ukraine just enough to force them to waste their resources. There will be no grand offensive. This is a real pity because it will cost Ukraine dearly. And until the day they quit, we will hear daily stories of Ukrainians dispatching Russian tanks and troops with the greatest of ease. It will be like the ending of ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly’ when Van Cleef is shot.
Russia is conducting this in the exact opposite way the U.S. does business. We rapidly take over a country and then fight an insurgency forever. Russia has no intention of taking over western Ukraine.
To add, Russia has already depleted NATO’s legacy Soviet made equipment and is now starting to destroy our top shelf, U.S. made inventory. Sigh, this is why I believe this will continue for at least another year. The Russians are drooling over the prospect of destroying F16’s and Abrams tanks and more Patriot missile batteries.
Yes, and China is now stopping exports of key resources required for rebuilding the military industrial supply base, and others will follow. Even if the US decided to launch a wartime economy and devote all they have to the effort, they can’t get the critical resources they would need, so it won’t happen. They’re hamstrung and don’t even seem to know it.
Russia would of course prefer to not (have to) take all of Ukraine.
But, unfortunately, any rump Ukraine, however small, would inevitably be a platform for the nefarious U.S.-led NATO.
This is so because the U.S. is driven by ideology, not by anything resembling rational, national interest. So Russia will be compelled by this central fact to take all of Ukraine; not just the east.
After the final Russian military victory, near this summer’s end probably, Russia will extend liberties and goodwill to Ukrainians that the U.S. post-coup Z-government has not been willing to extend to Russians in the separatist (now-seceded) areas.
During this upcoming period of Russian “occupation” (of part of historic Russia, Ukraine), Russia will, of necessity, put down any U.S.-fomented insurgency in Ukraine. But, on the whole, to win over or at least pacify the population, the Russians will exercise moderation and clemency toward the Ukrainian people while Russia and China and India and other BRICS-type countries help Ukraine rebuild physically and economically after war’s end. Under this wise and moderate Russian policy, many other Ukrainians will return to Ukraine.
For an indefinite period post-war, Russia will be compelled to maintain a basic hold of sorts on Ukraine — politically and militarily — until the evil Yankee Empire, by an inexorable weakening from woke liberalism — loses its ability to cause trouble there.
Like a rabid dog, the U.S. — if it does not first trigger nuclear war during a slobbering and crazed fit — will eventually wander off and die in its woke madness. From under its corpse, a new and freer rump America may, by God’s grace, emerge. Meanwhile, other parts of the former Yankee Empire, continuing down the communist-woke road, will become like Venezuela.
The US is not one monolith. There are the neocons, the useful idiots for the elites and their agent Soros. Then there are those who fight for the US.
Those who wish their American colony are those who benefit from breaking America and portraying it as gun crazed country on the verge of a civil war.
When One understands that, things make sense.
“It was announced a couple of weeks ago that The Bundesbank may need an injection of government cash to cover losses on bonds acquired as part of the European Central Bank asset-purchase programs, according to Germany’s federal auditor.” That’s why Legarde Head of the ECB, is screaming for an ECB Digital Currency asap, so the ECB may exchange the German’s middle class Euros for digits, impovershing the German Middle Class. Our Colonial Overlords are running out of time and the best way to bring them down is to take their power and let their Ponzi scheme implode. All they have left for another measure of energy and time is to cannibalize their own populations.
I believe waiting for the next winter to bring some cold weather might be a natural regime change operation as we are watching in France and Switzerland.
However, that doesn’t mean they will not attempt to start a nuclear exchange thinking they and their politicians will survive in their bunkers.
Last couple of weeks the British elites put up Ben Wallace as the ideal British Warmongering Arse for Nato Sec. However, Biden vetoed the idea and Stoltenberg stays put. I wonder if China called Biden and used some leverage to dissuade him from being a war president? If you disagree, he did take a $10 million bribe and MacCarthy is calling for an investigation with jail time. Biden asked with glee where’s the money? The Chinese can say here it is, we started the bread crums.
Global, nation and personal economics have to be taken into account for a complete vector analysis. We are not dealing with one faction or country. We are dealing with competing factions in every venue.
Bingo. Total agreement here. This is a perfect conflict for Russia. And by the way? The EU/NATO economies are self-destructing. If this conflict continues for another year or two there will be mass regime changes all thru Europe. Macron gone. The New Fourth Reich in Germany gone. The UK? Who cares. And of course, winter comes. Last year, Europe survived due to incredibly warm weather. All Russia has to do is stand and survive. And they win.
I agree with you.
For me, this article took complex issues and presented them so I could understand.(mostly)
I think the last paragraph of the article is important. I think the ROW has in mind at all times that our declining empire is a dangerous beast.
The NATO/EU economies self-destructing, use of the petrodollar being eroded, trade wars escalating, ROW cooperation increasing – all more slowly than quickly – are all preferable to nuclear bombs.
Absolutely correct. Another reason for this strategy is the implementation of multipolarity, which takes time and needs a slow and steady transitional process. In brief, the longer this takes, the more the West will decline in terms of power and the more the rest will get stronger. And it seems there’s nothing the West can do about this because they seem to have escalated as much as they reasonably can, but they have bound themselves up so they cannot de-escalate.
Excellent comment.
Don’t be so sure. Recall who was involved in the “Minsk Agreements”? Agreements require two willing parties that will adhere to them. Clearly, one side meant not to adhere to those agreements from the start as a ruse. What would make any negotiated conclusion with the west involved any different. Ukraine will be absorbed by Russia and will cease to exist as a separate country. There is no other security arrangements option on the table as the west has lied and connived its way into this terrible and dangerous situation.
I picked a bad time to stop drinking….
Okay, This is a real good prospective on the whole mess. Instead of moving when the outhouse overflows, just ignore it. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.
Looks like Zelensky picked the wrong time to quit coke. :p
P.S.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm8fYf53SMg
They found a white powdery substance in the WH library. It turned out to be cocaine.
“HUNTER!”
It’s still among the least criminal things done there.
I picked a bad time to stop sniffing glue.
thanks larry.. i think your last paragraph is the approach that russia and china are taking here.. fortunately wiser heads are prevailing, but it doesn’t prevent accidents from happening… keep up the great work!
My biggest fear is not an accident, but rather sheer stupidity. “Accidents” generally can’t and don’t happen when it’s competent people at the helm. These guys (US/NATO) are demonstrably stupid. That’s the scary part.
Depends on
What’s it all about Alfie.
Is it just for the moment we live ?
Thank you, Larry, for neatly wrapping this FUBAR.
Well written and easy to understand however, like herding kittens. Global politics on steroids or puberty blockers, depending on your native tongue.
The “Future” portion is not that far off. We may see fireworks or peace soon.
NATO is down to 2 choices – walk away or go all-in. There isn’t a third option left. Russia has contingencies for the “all-in” option, we do not. I suspect that if the “all-in” choice is made, whether conventional or nukes, it would be over fairly quickly as NATO has no ammunition reserves and would have lots of soldiers and other assets little more than sitting ducks.
I quite imagine Russia has the NATO bases and forces all targeted and ready to take out on short order. Distances and hypersonic speeds mean few would be able to get out of the way. They wouldn’t even have time to phone home to say goodbye.
Intelligent, competent people that are not unbalanced would have decided long ago to step back. That says a lot about who’s in charge on our end.
All in with what exactly? Logistics, logistics, logistics. The Russians are about to finish mobilizing a million man army. That’s five hundred thousand fighting men.
On the other hand, the loud mouthed British, always telling others ehat they should do, have no army to speak of and the rest of Europe have what exactly?
Will the US mobilize by sea across the Atlantic while Russian subs take a nap, or by air lasting a year or two.
The scary part is, the nuclear option, and thos is all those psychopaths have.
Yep! Sadly, nukes is pretty much all the west really has to threaten RU, but are they really stupid enough to use them? RU probably has ‘escalatory dominance’ in this area as well, given clear supremacy in hypersonics, and their Air Defense systems (though unproven against ICBM’s).
I’m tempted to say ‘If anyone has to go first, please let it be the Brits – serve them right for their arrogance and hubris’, but the reality is most people have no say in this war. Wouldn’t it be nice if someone developed a killer weapon that just took out the psycho leaders who want to play these stupid games.
Other countries than Russia & the US may turn out to be the deciding factor. Zelensky’s regime in the Ukraine is obviously merely an unfortunate pawn. Actions by China or EU nations may force the Deep State to abandon its war.
First, the US Deep State is living far above its means, spending much more than it takes in as taxes and running a huge trade deficit. Unsustainable! This relies on other countries accepting the inflation caused by US money-printing and putting their earnings into US bonds. After the Deep State stole Russia’s investments in the US, why would any other country choose to risk their savings in the US? Lots of foreigners, individuals & nations, are tip-toeing carefully towards the exit. The Deep State will someday be faced with the problem of either cutting Social Security or cutting support for the Ukraine.
Second, an expanding war in the Ukraine is a lot closer to Europe than to the US. Western European countries already have lots of problems, social & economic. If/when a major EU nation like Germany or France steps back from the US/NATO proxy war to focus on its own interests, it will become very difficult for the Deep State to continue its aggression.
I don’t think France is really in the condition to focus on much of anything right now
Social security will not be cut, as it really can’t be cut down further without creating massive and expensive social unrest.
The huge cut down will be in bureaucracy, which means cushy office jobs in private and public sector.
All that money flowing through the federal government bureaucracy down into private pockets, which sustains most of the American middle class.
That is where you will see the cuts, because that money is the spoil of empire. Those cushy bullshit jobs are the main benefit of empire as well as the driver of it’s collapse.
The rest of the economy has been built to survive this unearned wealth, from mcmansion construction services, uber eats and yoga classes.
That imperial wealth will he cut, and the middle class social welfare that cushy office jobs represent will he cut and that paycheck replaced by social security, which will thus be expanded as the state cuts down to essential services.
Accurate post……
You forgot American-based nuke missiles in Poland and Romania:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/reverse-cuban-missile-crisis
Thank you Larry for making the article available, very thought-provoking. I still think a small Russia / China fleet going down the Pacific coast (couple of destroyers, better have a few subs tag along too) would focus America’s attention.
The Doctorow article linked above is worrisome to be sure, I recall Putin saying that if nuclear ammo is supplied for the US missle sites in Poland and Romania, he would take out the sites. I believed him at the time. Hadn’t thought of the nuclear capable F16 as being the same kind of flashpoint. Better wrap the old emergency radio in foil I suppose in case of stray EMP! Don’t mind me I am always alarmed anyway.
We see conflict between major ideas: the globalists/US want to mind everybody’s business because they think everything is their business, and they want to control the world. Others, like Russia, want them to mind their own business, and China takes a unique perspective as they want the US to mind its own business, and are building “insulation” between the west and China via their belt and road and other initiatives.
Generally most of the world is tired of the US bullying everybody, and are skeptical of the WEF crowd which is just another elitist group bent on global domination. So they’re opting out.
The problem the US/globalist crowd faces is they don’t have control of the critical resources they need to succeed at much of anything, and are, in the most basic sense, bluffing. Others are starting to notice. Bullies have no friends, and that will become clear over the next few months as things unravel.
What will the last ditch “hail Mary” attempt at retaining control be? We don’t know, but we should expect one, as they will cling to the idea of world domination as long as they can, no matter how irrational it gets.
The current Ukraine situation is Russia subjecting the US/NATO to a military version of Chinese drip torture. They just keep whittling away at NATO’s capabilities to where NATO will be neutered because it cannot access supply of key resources needed to rebuild and resupply their forces.
On top of that, the economy is ready to fall off the debt cliff, and the WEF types are now pushing climate change as a means to control what is left of their global dream. France is coming unglued, the Netherlands is shutting down food production and fighting farmers, the UK is a mess, the US is divided and fighting poverty, drugs, homelessness and mass immigration. You can’t fight any kind of war when your own countries are coming part at the seams. Russia and China know that. You need a common focus and unity, not just neocons pushing for war. That’s why the US has lost so many conflicts over the last several decades. No unified country with clear goals and purpose.
Russia, China and most of the world will motor along while the “western democracies” devolve into dystopian totalitarian states. It behooves Russia to keep going slow so as to get a good assessment of what that may look like when it unfolds, and to have a robust plan to address that new reality.
Hey, Mac. What you have written is true. For “American” politicians to have repeatedly voted to launch and wage an extremely deadly proxy war against Russia, they must all be certifiably insane. Not only that, but thoroughly wicked as well. America is an irredeemable, wicked, and “woke” nation. We won’t even celebrate George Washington’s Birthday — probably the greatest and most noble American who ever lived. Instead, now we have Juneteenth and Sodomite Pride Month — both abominations. With the fools who are “leading” us, and their longstanding war against private property rights (thus driving capital and technology overseas), America is quickly becoming impoverished. Homelessness abounds. Christ Himself told us that a kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation and will not stand (Matthew 12:25), and that especially applies when a country goes against the Moral Laws of Triune God. (See Psalm 9:17) By voting for Marxist traitors, “Americans” have put themselves on the road to totalitarian serfdom. “If men will not be governed by God, they then must be governed by tyrants.” – William Penn
“Adding even more to the confusion is the role of the Globalists, World Economic Forum, Davos Crowd, and assorted billionaires promoting some sort of ‘New World Order.’ These folk do not seem to have much loyalty to any particular nation, rather seem to be cosmopolitan citizens of the world.”
They are not genuine internationalists. They are more like a white power clique of obscenely affluent plutocrats.
Great analysis from Larry, as always. Horace also makes a great analogy, “glass house soaked in kerosene”. Finance based economies have waged war on labour in their countries for a long time. Current system is not working for many, for varied reasons. When you look at Larry’s analysis and combine it with that of A. Martyanov and M. Hudson certain pattern emerges. There are dark clouds on the horizon. When I see new political contenders appear such as Kennedy it is encouraging but one should be cautious. The French had their revolution in late 1700’s but what followed was Napoleonic wars. Many other examples in history. It is very easy to subvert the populace during times of turmoil, hungry and disenfranchised are easily swayed. Promises and changes are nice, but only if true actions follow. If we see changes, tangible improvements in education, housing, health care, family support, we’ll know the system is working and improving. Until then it’s a classic dejavu, pun intended.
Kennedy called Putin a thug and a murderer recently. He’s more of the same. They think they can engage with the world productively by calling the countries names, their heads of state murderers, thugs.
Unless there is a constituency and leaders which recognize that they need to respectfully engage the major countries in the world there is no hope of any resolution.
If the only pander to the desires of the base elements which only call for war with China or Russia together or one by one the US system can’t be engaged in any productive way only option for other countries is to contain US and ultimately cap their aggression.
Kennedy guy is yet another clown.
He may be but at least he’s not yet tripping over his clown shoes, like the rest.
These days, you take what you can get and consider yourself lucky if you got it.
That’s what Ukrainians thought when they voted Zelensky.
Ah Tulsi, how I yearn for thee.
Martymcfly, the ONLY way we will EVER “see changes, tangible improvements in education, housing, health care, family support”. … is to get all governments — Federal & State Governments especially — OUT of each of these areas. They should all be privatized and free market based. As far as “family support” goes, the King James Bible… the Westminster & Heidelberg Catechisms … and strict Sunday Sabbath worship at faithful Reformed Calvinist Protestant churches… is really all the “support” a family needs, provided it is united to Triune God through faith (belief) in Christ alone.
“They should all be privatized and free market based.”
This is the wet dream Klaus Schwab and the likes. Everything is privatized and “free market” based. You will own nothing and be happy. “Free market” lie killed more people than the one about the invisible man in the sky that loves you, and is all knowing, and all seeing, and needs your money.
Hi Larry,
That was a great analysis!!! I would just like to add a few more possibly pertinent points:
1] One can’t invade a country the size of Ukraine without a significant (year/s-long) military build-up. And that can’t be disguised due to satellite surveillance and internet communication. The Allied D-Day preparations took more than a year. Desert Storm took six months to organize and supply. Any real attempt by China to invade Taiwan would show up months before on US satellites. Currently the United States and NATO don’t have a standing army on hand to intervene in Russia. It will take years to create. This past “SLOW YEAR” was the Russian build-up phase. There is simply no getting around this …look at the plight of NATO now, they are not the “arsenal of democracy”, but the “footlocker of democracy”.
2] Had the Russians put their “build-up” phase before the initial SMO incursion, NATO would have detected it and could have significantly strengthened Ukraine, either conventionally or with nuclear weapons, and even possibly declared a no-fly zone over Ukraine, daring the Russians to cross it. They also could have fast-tracked Ukraine into NATO. Therefore, going in light and by surprise (not even the Russian unit commanders knew until the night before the operation, similar to the German Ardennes offensive) to get a “serious” negotiated settlement was quite logical.
3] By keeping the conflict confined to the Donbass it shows/showed Russian restraint. Russia can’t go around stomping the former USSR republics, or it would suffer significant blow-back, especially in the 4 “stans” , playing directly into Western hands. The “stans” are politically unstable and need to be delicately managed; all have a significant stranded populations of ethnic Russians. Hence the “measured and necessary” seizure of Crimea, for the Sevastopol naval base and tepid support for the breakaway Donetsk areas in 2014. One of the reasons that Putin and Lavrov went along with the Minsk accords for eight years, was to reassure the “stans” that they were not trying to recreate the USSR (the Western / Blinken narrative). One of the things often missing in Western analysis is the internal politics and dynamics of managing all of the former republics of the USSR… it is somewhat like the US managing NATO but more delicate.
4] By keeping the conflict confined to the Donbass, it creates the impression of a “foreign war” in Ukrainian eyes. We see a continual stream of disgruntled Ukraine soldiers questioning why they are fighting in the Donbass, for them they don’t feel like the Donbass is their country. That would be a different story if Russia had troops assaulting cities in Galicia.
All IMHO
Excellent comment that the Kremlin needs to be, and is, sensitive to how their actions in Ukraine are perceived in the “stans”. However, the Kremlin’s concern is wider. The Russians are trying to lead the world by their own example. National sovereignty what’s being taught here.
Hats off to a very balanced and complete analysis by Larry. A decade of history in a few paragraphs, that’s an accomplishment!
If I were to add anything, I’d have to go back to May, 1945 when the OSS agent, Allen Dulles, set up The Gehlen Organization to support the Bandera Nazis in the Ukraine. The longer story gives a better understanding of Western intentions and of Russian paranoia.
Pretty good analysis Rossovsky. Explained A LOT of questions I have for over a year since I’m from the “don’t give enemy a vote” camp and been frustrated watching Russia seemingly fight with two hands behind it’s back when they coulda gone more scorched earth. Most people said it’s they just want to take it easy on civilians but let’s get real civilians don’t matter in a existential threat so that never made sense to me. Your reasons do.
I agree with Larry that Ukraine will soon request F35 fighters.
Before or after they demand tactical nukes?
Should check with AM on this but I think the Russian leadership (“combined Putin”) decided that Russia was not ready in 2014. They were not going to pick a fight they didn’t know they would win. That would be betting the farm, given that their opponents were their sworn enemies, the neocons that arranged the neo-Nazi coup in Ukraine.
1) The arms industry was still largely mothballed, 2) the military was not trained properly and 3) lacked weapons on a par with NATO, 4) the populace was not prepared, and the 5) world situation was not entirely supportive. For example, “sanctions from hell” could have devastated Russia at the time, as the US believed would happen when they were imposed in 2022.
The West missed that Russia understood its predicament well and began taking steps to address the issues. It wasn’t until 2021 that the Russian leadership decided that the time was ripe and they presented their “non-ultimatum.”
China is somewhere near where Russia was in 2014, but its leadership is taking steps to remedy that ASAP. Indications are they think they are pretty close.
There’s another reason for avoiding a fight in UA in 2014.
Russia’s move into Syria was already on the table, and going into UA would’ve put it in conflict with US interests in two theatres simultaneously. 2014’s Russia was simply not ready for that.
Minsk can be viewed as putting the Ukrainian question in suspense in order to give the RU MoD the running room to set up its military facilities and engage in the heart of the Middle East. Saving an important ally and thrashing ISIS cemented its alliance with Iran, and radically changed the balance of power in the region. As a result, the Middle East has set a new course away from the West and towards BRICS and the SCO. These shifts probably overshadow Ukraine and cannot be over-estimated.
Had Minsk been genuinely implemented and held, I’d think Russia would’ve busied itself with other developments while it waited for the IMF $ystem to collapse, and the current SMO would most likely have never happened.
You, unlike the most, had managed to step back and take in a much bigger picture. Well done!
Russia’s ultimate goal is destruction of NATO and with it the Global Parasitic Cabal which has been steadily and systematically destroying our World. This Cabal hates humanity and wants us dead. Russia has embarked on cleansing our World of this evil and the rest of this world NEEDS to line up alongside Russia and fight this scourge together – for our human family to survive!
Ukraine, BTW, is only a tiny corner of that picture..
We can turn this way and that, but Russia cannot win by defending itself. Stalin would have solved it by now, raised the flag in Kiev and Brussels or Berlin and London, then established the Iron Curtain. In Yalta, Churchill and Roosevelt took out a bunch of documents at the meeting, Stalin asked them, what do you have, proposals for the end of what Europe should look like. Stalin stood up and picked up the documents in front of Churchill and Roosevelt and threw them in the corner of the room, saying that Russia did not defeat Nazism with documents but with blood, and Europe ended as Stalin wanted. This is now too sketchy and somehow twisted into some global plan, and it is Putin’s, but the people of Russia are not in favor of it, soon there will appear the banners of Stalin that the people wear, because the Russian Spirit demands what has always been and always the winner, that is Putin it numbs and it is evident, Prigozhin asked the question, but there is no answer, I guess no is the answer itself, the Russian people will not accept that, really Putin is slandering something.
You write just like another vistor here. I went back to check, the name is Galina. I now understand how term glowie came to be. Slava Cocaini.
“Finally, it is widely acknowledged that a declining empire is a dangerous beast and should be handled carefully. On this ground, analysts suggest that both Russia and China should be careful to not poke the beast too hard, lest it go berserk with rage.”
It’s not Russia and China that should be careful, but small countries. When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
A small correction re: Lugansk and Donetsk, and its knock-on effects…
Prior to the SMO, and in quick succession:
– the two formally declared their independence
– Putin formally recognized their claims to independence,
– the newly independent oblasts petitioned Moscow for military assistance, and
– defence pacts were signed whereby Russia agreed to provide such assistance
The above was executed in a matter of days, but it was later, in late Sept 2022 that Moscow recognized the independence of the Kherson and Zaporozhie regions after hastily arranged but successful referendums in those two combined the questions of both independence and joining the Russian Federation. Donetsk and Lugansk, of course did not need to ask about independence, so their referendums asked only about joining Russia. Moscow immediately recognized Kherson and Zaporozhie’s independence and then the incorporation of all 4 into Russia.
The 4 referendums coincided with Putin’s announcement of a “partial mobilization” of 300k troops. It is important to note that Russian law forbids the use of conscripts beyond the Russian border without a formal declaration of war. Thus the incorporation of the new territories served to legalize the deployment of the mobilized troops (and existing conscripts) in the Ukrainian theatre under Russian law.
From my readings, this may also help explain why we’ve seen no “big arrow” offensive from the Russian side. Simply, UA remains too strong to be taken whole if only Russia’s professionals can be legally deployed on foreign soil.
That may be changing as Russia’s attrition strategy depletes UA’s combat power, but I’m sure UA/NATO are aware of Russia’s legal constraints. Indeed, it looks like UA’s forces are shifting to a defensive posture in the hope of “stalemating” the conflict on the current line. If there are any big arrow moves, they’ll be limited to the administrative borders of the 4 former oblasts.
Should UA/NATO allow the carnage to continue to the point where UA’s remaining forces are so weak that Russia’s relatively small number of professional troops could subdue what remained, war may never be declared but UA will disappear. I believe that’s the strategy Russia opted for in Apr/May 2022 and Surovikin cemented into place in the autumn of 2022.
That also explains the US’ concerns about UA’s attacks on Russian territory and its multitude of other provocations. Should Russia be driven to a declaration of war, the map would fill with big arrows and UA would vanish within days/weeks.
We see in this Putin’s much noted legalistic mindset. The letter, if not the spirit of the legal forms must be followed, and so it has been. As the law is of little concern for them, doubtless UA/US/NATO see Putin’s legalisms as “weakness” and their advantage.
“The above was executed in a matter of days …”
That’s because AFU have started artillery preparation for the invasion of Donbass. At that point it was clear that the war is inevitable, and that they had to act fast in order to strike first.
https://youtu.be/AOXq_Ap4U_Y?t=43
Yes, reading through I was going to point out the timing error as well.
Russia first recognized the republics as independent and their petitions for assistance, giving the operation a legal basis (obligation to protect) under the U.N. Charter.
The referendums and incorporation into the Russian Federation did not happen until more than a half a year later after the Russian side realized that there would be no negotiations or return to a Minsk-type accord, and legal basis was needed for mobilization and position of RAF regular troops (only on Russian territory, by law).
HMS Terror — sorry, I’m a bit slow.
There is one liddle shortcut to the “Big Arrows” w/o declaring war, nobody seems to mention — that is, some of the “conscripts,” aka mobilized reservists, may sign a Contract w MOD (6m or 6y, whatever) to become pro’s for just finishing off this 404…
Cheers, JaKo
“It was announced a couple of weeks ago that The Bundesbank may need an injection of government cash to cover losses on bonds acquired as part of the European Central Bank asset-purchase programs, according to Germany’s federal auditor.” That’s why Legarde Head of the ECB, is screaming for an ECB Digital Currency asap, so the ECB may exchange the German’s middle class Euros for digits, impovershing the German Middle Class. Our Colonial Overlords are running out of time and the best way to bring them down is to take their power and let their Ponzi scheme implode. All they have left for another measure of energy and time is to cannibalize their own populations.
I believe waiting for the next winter to bring some cold weather might be a natural regime change operation as we are watching in France and Switzerland.
However, that doesn’t mean they will not attempt to start a nuclear exchange thinking they and their politicians will survive in their bunkers.
Last couple of weeks the British elites put up Ben Wallace as the ideal British Warmongering Arse for Nato Sec. However, Biden vetoed the idea and Stoltenberg stays put. I wonder if China called Biden and used some leverage to dissuade him from being a war president? If you disagree, he did take a $10 million bribe and MacCarthy is calling for an investigation with jail time. Biden asked with glee where’s the money? The Chinese can say here it is, we started the bread crums.
Global, nation and personal economics have to be taken into account for a complete vector analysis. We are not dealing with one faction or country. We are dealing with competing factions in every venue.
With apologies to add to my previous comment: Churchill told Stalin to let the Eastern countries of Europe sing to freedom like birds, Stalin replied: Let them sing to you, but not to me. And here they sing to Putin, and with great hatred and malice, they sing and sing to Putin.
https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/
…..On July 27, 1993, the US Department of Defense (DoD) and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signed a Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation on Defense and Military Relations, establishing a programme of defence cooperation at the Department-Ministry-level, with “substantive activities” between those offices being launched in July 1994…..
https://www.youtube.com/live/ZlPnD7oFQuM?feature=share
Probably the best and simplest description of the period December 2021- to Feb 2022 have read.
Anyone listening to the Ukraine/nato rhetoric of the last 6 months does not need telling that they see it all as a Ukraine attack on rebels and Crimea – even today.
The challenge was protecting Donbas when the Ukrainian side of the line of conflict had been prepared so well. A distraction was essential – hence all the fighting West of Kiev at Gostomel airport, Bucha and the North.
The US bluff was that it expected a Russian invasion – which would have been false flag cover for the Ukrainian attack. Historians will look back at Russia’s pre-emption of a False flag as one of the wittiest battle plans ever. (And where were the Ukrainians when the Russians actually did invade Ukraine from North and South? – they were parked outside Donbas).
“The so-called “Realist School” of foreign policy has placed China as the “peer competitor” of the US ”
So Called Realist. The real situation is that US has not been a peer competitor of China for some time – China is the hegemon.
Meanwhile Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland & the Neocons are sending cluster bombs: “Human Rights Watch (HRW) has warned the US against supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions which have been banned in more than 100 countries due to the severe risk they pose to civilian populations. The New York Times reported on Thursday, citing a senior White House source, that Washington was expected to greenlight the move.”
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the
Somehow the thread about Stalin opened up for me, and to supplement my two comments: A dispatch arrives in Moscow from Berlin, that Jakov, Stalin’s son, has been captured and is in a camp, and that the Russians are holding a captured German general, and that they want to exchange them. Stalin asked about the general and received an affirmative answer, and then asked that the general be brought to him. When the general stood before Stalin, who took a gun and killed the German general, and said: A Russian cannot be captured, he can only be dead or victorious. This is true even today for the Russians, they cannot win just by defending themselves and exchanging prisoners, either Russia will be dead or they will Win. That seems to dilute Putin, too much. It’s time for someone in Russia to shout: Forward, for the Motherland, forward for Stalin.
Here, take this gun.
You laud the claim of the Georgian Stalin that “a Russian . . . can only be dead or victorious”.
You certainly sound like a true Stalinist.
Stalin’s solution produced enduring, and well-founded, hatred of the Soviet Union by the nations Stalin subjugated, hatred now transferred to Russia.
I don’t believe Putin has any interest in establishing a new Soviet Empire. But, were I a citizen of one of the nation’s Stalin subjugated, I would undoubtedly find that difficult to believe.
Bazza, could you list those nations that Stalin had “subjugated”? As a Russian, I am curious to know.
Try Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Romania.
I exclude East Germany since it suffered the penalty of defeat in a war it, at least nominally, started. Occupation is a common outcome under those circumstances, as the US still occupies, to a degree, Japan and Germany.
To Bazza
Brainwashed ignorance is not something you should be displaying on this site. Try it somewhere else.
Some of those countries also fought on the Nazi side, which makes them legible for “the penalty of defeat in a war”.
ALL of the countries except Poland fought on the side of the Nazis. Sent armies, etc. Latvia contributed SS troops who are still celebrated every year there. Only an intentional misreading of the facts could conjure up sympathy for them. Poland didn’t fight the USSR, but the Polish government before WW2 was openly and exceedingly hostile to the USSR and had a non-aggression pact with Germany from 1934 on. Poland’s government refused the August 1939 offer of a collective security pact with the USSR (vide the memoirs of Beaufrere and Doumenc). That refusal paved the way for WW2 a few weeks later. The jackals who ran Poland ran off to London to create a government in exile which remained as hostile to the USSR as ever. So Stalin had no choice but to set up a controlled government. Just like the US did in West Germany, too. Crowds cheered when Stalin named Rokossovsky to run Poland. He was born in Warsaw and was fluent in Polish.
Occupation was the only possible outcome for those Nazi puppet statelets.
20/20 hindsight says those occupations ended at least one generation too soon, and that during the Khrushchev and Brezhnev eras, the USSR failed its historical task to subdue these hostile ideologies.
The West has always hated Russia and was the aggressor, both WW1 and WW2 were wars against Russia. After the end of WW2, the West and the USA destroyed 39 countries and nations and killed 50 million civilians. Bolshevik-Jews killed 70 million Russians, and Stalin saved Russia then and saved Russia from Nazism. Russia has always come out victorious in all aggressions, but you cannot win by defending yourself. Russia broke all the aggressions in its offensives and was the winner, that is the essence and fact.
With some sense the December 2021 “non Ultimátum” for the former Warsaw Pact NATO members could have been negotiated to dismantling of the AEGIS Ashore based in Romania and Poland.
But of course, stupidity prevailed.
Nope. That would not have been a way out. Not by a long mile!
” That would not have been a way out.”
It was never required to be – it was a notice of intent.
“This group apparently believed that Russia was weak enough that the Ukraine War, the extensive sanctions, turning the ruble into rubble, and the disconnects from SWIFT and the credit card systems, would bring about a regime change and another Yeltsin-like government.”
My guess is that for a brief period there was a consensus among all US factions seeking to undermine Russia, along with their NATO allies: that a preventive strike by Russia could justify sanctions that would be effective enough to bring about a new government controlled by comprador elements in the Russian elite. That premise was particularly important to the Germans, who hoped for another round of market assimilation similar to what they enjoyed after the Soviet Union’s collapse and who also had the most to lose from a conflict.
Coverage that might help us analyze splits in the German elite is poor. I think this leads us to underestimate the potential for a breakdown of their support for this debacle.
Best analysis I have seen so far.
At the moment, the western population still believes in ukrainian victory. So, I wait for the moment zelenski leaves the country.
At the end of WW2 the Allies utilised functionaries and bureaucrats that had served the German political machine, to prevent any Soviet domination of Europe. Without those nasties on site no rebuilding could have been successfully organised.
Russia now faces the possibility that a collapse of NATO and the existing ‘rules based world order’ hegemony could leave them with a mother of all problems…. Nobody to negotiate with.
I suspect China is none too happy with that prospect either.
We are all reduced to praying for enough wise heads, to be in the right place, at the right time to be able to convince the naked emperors it’s all over.
We desperately need a ceasefire now, and peace negotiations tomorrow…_
Unfortunately the Russians tried peace negotiations yesterday and won’t cease fire as as long as there is no offer on the table they can agree with. I agree with you about the lack of humanity in the process but for what that statement is worth for a head of state ? Anyway, there is always a way for peace … ONU is theoretically made for it.
The Chinese just announced restrictions on export of Germanium and Gallium … they indeed don’t seems to happy with “ruled based order” but won’t care so much to have nobody to make war with anymore, IMHO.
The anti-communist fever in the US date long before the end of WW2 , but after it, the US used anyone that wasn’t a red to fight against the reds , in Spain , Italy , France , Germany , Poland , Ukraine , Czechoslovakia , Baltic states , South America , Africa … I just remembered the Ethiopia-Somalia war in 1979 . Western backed Ethiopia was turned communist dictatorship in a war against USSR backed communist Somalia. Funny days at the CIA ! Moscow reaction was stunning 🙂
These psychopaths are not cosmopolitan citizens of the world or anyplace else for that matter.
They are borderless nomads with connections and money, no loyalty to any nation, above laws except those they usurp for their own purposes, who use citizenship to erode natural social cohesion to their own gain and everyone else’s disadvantage, who abuse military power and weapons to assist with looting whatsoever it is they covet at any given time regardless of the bloodshed and carnage that they know very well it will cause, and then on top of all that, they show themselves up to be the flea bitten guttersnipes that they are by informing us all that it is in the interest of peace, justice, democracy, yada, yada, yada.
All of their rackets should be identified and dissolved and let them live on park benches were they belong.
Excellent article, thanks for putting this up.
I think that it’s self-evident that the US is in an unrecoverable collapse. The only way I see the US surviving AS the US is for a systemic collapse and hard depression and global humiliation that turns the populace fully and actively against those in power and creates the energy for a wholesale replacement/renovation of our existing institutions. How long this takes is anyone’s guess. Rome wasn’t built in a day and it didn’t fall in a day, either.
For now, Russia and China are better served to slowly turn up the heat and accelerate US decline at a controlled pace without, as you say “enraging the beast”. The advantage they have there is 1) conventional military superiority and escalation dominance (Russia and soon, China) and 2) 2/3 of the world wants to be in BRICS and shed of US/Western dominance, and, 3) the completely inept, corrupt and retarded leadership that now runs the West and is incapable of coherently responding to anything global.
As long as Russia and China keep moving forward with what they’re doing, and grinding down the West, this will turn out well for the entire world, eventually. Once the US/West is broken down and is forced to fundamentally change itself and realign with a true multipolar world, a truly new global era can begin. But it will take a generation or two, I think.
A Western mindset is a poor tool for understanding Russia. I’ve noticed some things about Russia over many years, including things I see in Larry’s very useful paper.
Russia displays some strengths relative to the US/NATO:
1. Active, not reactive
2. Strategic rather than tactical
3. Focused on the long term and big picture
4. Economical when action is required
5. Sensitive to the public’s purse and human resources
6. Persuasive before coercive
7. Influenced by but not driven by unelected oligarchs
8. Able to use effectively both stated and implied threats
9. Truthful more than deceitful
10. Not prone to boasting or celebrating the deaths of enemies
11. Realistic
12. Decisively unwoke
13. Organized and controlled, not chaotic
14. Willing to enlarge the global pie rather than compete for slices of it
15. Better informed by history and Christianity
16. Patient to allow enemies to self destruct
17. Patient to allow enemies to change while they still can
18. Focused on results that have relatively little to do with geography.
19. Diverse and yet unified internally.
While Russia puts plenty of thought into specific hot spots like the Ukraine and Syria, Russia is more focused on its position relative to that of the US and China.
Although I could continue the list above, my understanding is nowhere near sufficient to predict what Russia will and won’t do next. Whatever the global situation, Russia will act in the time, place and manner that Russia chooses. The rest of us can just watch and comment.
Great observations and response !
Russia is playing the long game, allowing Ukraine operations to proceed at a certain pace while Russia keeps working on getting China and every non-Western country together politically to ditch the West.
Yes, it’s sometimes frustrating to watch Russia “go so slow”, knowing they could end this war in two weeks.
But Russia knows that by playing the long game, the Nazis and their Western sponsors are getting weaker by the month. After all, why take over Ukraine quickly, only to have to deal with endless internal strife in the leftover population caused by jazzed-up Nazis continually stoked by the CIA ?
So Russia bides its time and gathers the rest of the world with it. Smart.
One last thing, Priggy is no longer in Belarus, and Lukashenko said he’d hire Wagner if the Wagner and Russia leadership allows it. See this:
https://tass.com/defense/1643477
“So, Russia bides it’s time and gathers the rest of the world with it. Smart.”
Thank you!
Are you Putin representative, or some kind of Russian ambassador for this blog?
To mad cow
Russian born who lived half of her life in the West and therefore able to see things with a much better understanding than most.
BTW, your expression “Putin representative” clearly shows inadequate and rather stunted thinking abilities.
You act like you have some mandate. A Putin’s representative should be taking credits for job well done. Not some “I’m Russian trust me bro” person. What if I’m Russian “more than you”? What if I’m anoyed by you talking of behalf of others? This corner of the Internet is not suitable for soapboxing. Gastarbeiters playing patriots stick out like a sore thumb. There is some “Russian” here glorifying Prigozhin.
“inadequate and rather stunted thinking abilities”
Flattering won’t soften me much.
““So, Russia bides it’s time and gathers the rest of the world with it. Smart.”
A little lopsided.
The opponents attempted to express deliver some poison pills, whilst “The Russians” encouraged change of delivery address and choice of carrier by the sound of silence, thereby reducing the time to bide if deemed wise.
Not what’s it all about – but a component within what’s it all about, since not all “Russians” play chess/linear step-by-stepness, despite what some others believe leading in part to Mr. Burns and others present bouts of oh-fuckness.
On the 19th of June Blinken rounded up his visit to China. On the 21th of June Biden called Xi a dictator. This was repeated by Blinken later. On the 24th of June we had the drama around Prigozhin. Did US government, expected a “regime change” in Russia?So US didn’t need a “temporary” easing of the tensions between China and the US because of the much wanted “regime change” US expected? And now that this didn’t happen, did US send Yellen? Are these things connected? I didn’t hear anyone about these strange visits to China.
The US is run by the military industrial complex and a president is picked to attend state dinners and pardon the Thanksgiving turkey. Having an official dictator would be a more honest situation. Can even a steadfast democrat say that Joe Friggin Biden was the candidate they wanted as our titular executive?
Amen to all that Mr. Larry, amen, God bless us, there’s none like us, all we need to do is not loose our nerve, but amen especially the last part, there’s serious filthy lucre grubbing lunatics and ideological sexually perverted depraved maniacs running things. And there is no knowing what crazed ideas they all got in their heads. Not for nothing collectively they have created an absolute unmitigated disaster out of the goose that laid the golden eggs. We had everything, they had to make everything into a foul issue or invented what they heeded out of thin air. Its mind boggling and i grew up watching it begin in the 60’s, just a little kid on a farm, and I knew back then these people where cloud cookoo land in the head, plain as day is. And now we are at the end of things. May heavenly providence and profound prudence keep us safe from them and the consequences of their utter absolute diabolical lack of prudence. Lunatics neck deep in a pool of gasoline playing with matches. And I think they do not even know it they are so hell bent on what it is they covet. A circus of psychopaths and sycophants.
I didn’t understand why Putin didn’t decimate the Ukrainian leadership, Zelensky et al, from the beginning and I still don’t understand why he doesn’t now. Afraid of the reaction of Western governments? Governments that are a bunch of thieves, sadists and cowardly talkers. For me, the fear that this would happen to themselves would silence these cowards and consequently their support for the war.
Governments that are also nuclear armed
Zelensky et al are not Ukrainian leadership, but puppets. They all are disposable and easily replaceable. Killing Zelensky would just make him a martyr in the MSM. Real Ukrainian leadership sits in Washington, and decimating them is off the table because of the whole nuke thing.
Excellent succinct synopsis of the SMO to date. Also excellent presentation of options available to the belligerent parties.
To add my opinion, not that it’s worth much, we in the USA have the opportunity to turn our country around using peaceful Constitutional processes. We just have to admit to ourselves that we no longer lead the pack. Of course, introspection leading to positive change is the most difficult thing to do, especially when you’re justifiably angry.
If we don’t control ourselves, someone else surely will. And I don’t like THAT latter option.
You, as country, have been taken over by this Cabal long ago! Being a global parasite, they have sucked you dry and now you are nothing but a dry husk of a country. You HAD your chances to save your country from this evil and you did NOTHING. Hence, take the consequences..
The biggest recruitment problem for the US military is not wokeism, but fatism.
“Back in 2014, the US made the decision to implement the regime change finale in Ukraine that the US had spent some $6 billion on over the years in preparation, according to reports.”
So, what?
As though this is supposed to mean something. Since 2010, the United States has been spending money that has no meaning, because it is worth nothing. Zero. But nobody gets excited about that.
Iraq (a war Putin is losing according to Joe Biden) means nothing. Afghanistan meant nothing. Ukraine means nothing. Believe it or not, World War 3 will mean nothing. As is the case with all wars millions will die for nothing. If you’ve seen the videos of Ukrainian soldiers crawling around, trapped in a mine field, with a leg blown off you would know. In World War 3 that figure will rise to billions. Remember when “Billionaire Bruce Wayne” was “Millionaire Bruce Wayne.” Remember when the average price for a $500,000 home in 2023 was $23,000 in 1962?
Common knowledge shows that the value of the dollar, from 1913 until 2008, had fallen 98-percent. The Crash of 2008 / 2009 was caught midway in a free fall. However, the remaining value of the USD was like a falling knife slipping right through the FED’s fingers. The FED might have even lost a finger or two. You know what they say about trying to catch a falling knife?
“Don’t do it.” The whole thing should have gone to zero with the GFC.
Since 2010, we have been living in a dead economy, with a dead government, with a dead currency. The United States has become like the Emperor and Empress in their new clothes — their treasury empty, walking around conducting proxy wars butt naked, funding regime change with worthless dollars. Since 2010, we are just one full faith and credit moment from “kissing all this goodbye.”
The money means nothing. In World War 3 it will be even worse because the money is worth nothing. World War 3 will mean nothing. We have lived our whole lives conditioned to believe that money had meaning. Money that has no value has no meaning.
It’s all going to be like responding to a “Dear Taxpayer” letter from fully weaponized IRS. You will spend thousands of dollars in your money on a $100 dollar discrepancy. Your friends, your family, your attorney, your accountant, they will all tell you: “Just give them their money.” Not your money. Theirs.
You cannot negotiate with these people. Any of them.
“Just give them their money. Just give them what they want.” Just substitute Zelinsky and the Ukrainians, Biden, Blumenthal and Graham.
They are finding cocaine in the White House. The French government is calling their citizens “vermin.” Nancy Pelosi is traveling to Paris to show the French government how to erect a wall around The Élysée Palace. [sarcasm] And what about those Dutch farmers and their government’s push to separate them from their homes, persons, property (farms), and possessions (farm tractors), all over the weather?
You cannot negotiate with these people. It means nothing. Hasn’t for a while.
If you take Putin at his word about the goals of the SMO to denazify, disarm, and have Ukraine a neutral country it seems me that this will only possible if the West (i.e. US) is disarmed, denazified and neutral given that all the decisions are made by the US. I am afraid this is essentially a game of chicken between rwo nuclear superpowers. There is no conceiveable outcome where the US does not lose. The only question is the degree that they lose. It ranges from the loss of world hegemony and total bankruptcy financially, politically, and spiritually on the low end, to nuclear incineration on the high end. Putin said publically in a speech on Sep 30 2022 essentially that the US is worshipping the Devil.
“The repression of freedom is taking on the outlines of a ‘reverse religion,’ of real Satanism,” he said, adding that the open attitudes toward gender identity are a “denial of man”.
Very very dangerous and the US actions are starting to eerily resemble the rantings of a certain chancellor in a bunker. May God help someone in the west to a path of peace. I cant imagine a Cuban Missile type crisis with the collection of what arguably is the dumbest leaders in all of human history. The West is very lucky that Putin is calm, cool, rational man who doesn’t overreact, or we would already likely have been destroyed in a nuclear holocaust.
Always brilliant analysis Larry thank you so much for your great work
Ukraine will finish up as a failed corrupt state infested with disgruntled, angry and humiliated Nazis equiped with modern heavy weaponry and probably access to nuclear material for making dirty bombs.
What could go wrong in Europe?
Russia will not allow that. Ukies Nazi will be exterminated. Europe will have a very stark choice to make. The “hegemon” will be gone.
The history paragraph, as HMS has pointed out, is a little too sketchy.
The LDNR were recognized first (as per earlier referenda), then mutual defense pact was signed (just like NATO), the Russia moved peace-keeping troops into Donetsk, offering to sit down with Ukraine on Feb 23 to negotiate borders. Instead, Ukraine shelled the Russian troops in Donetsk, as had been their custom, and Russia invaded Feb 24.
The reason this history is so important is that Putin carefully crafted a justification for the war (mutual defense & R2P/pre-emptive defense for the genocide in LDNR), Ukraine shelled Russian peace-keepers, which is a casus belli. Everything according to the book (with references to the relevant articles in the UN Charter) and according to precedents that America has also appealed to.
Ukraine could still have brought about the best possible deal they were ever going to get short of implementing UN Resolution 2202 (International Law), also known as Minsk, on Feb 23, all without a war.
Thank you for filling in the important detail of the peacekeepers being shelled. I wasn’t aware of that. A casus belli if there ever was one.
Imagine the world situation if Russia had been approached in friendship by the west years ago when they were still open to it. Instead, the west decided to send leftist big business into Russia to rape it in punishment for their repudiation of the great utopian ideology of Communism. Even after that, a regime change in america could’ve led to a US-Russia world order with Russian industry, economy, and military being fueled by US military spending. Instead of the hostile colonizer nation of China getting all those benefits without being tied militarily and diplomatically to the US.
Now we face the situation of somehow figuring out how to use the US military against a nation it’s wholly dependent on for technology and raw material.
Instead we could’ve used Russia as the sort of “Supplier to the Arsenal of Democracy” while keeping a homegrown US industrial base.
But globalists took over the US and the US citizenry, the most heavily armed militia in the entire world, sat around and did nothing. Did nothing when rich foreigners bought out the west. Did nothing when they sent all our jobs to China. Did nothing when they mobilized millions of illegals to come and rape the country. Did nothing when they funded and supplied riots to burn US cities. Did nothing when they openly showed they controlled the US government in 2020.
The pax americana is over. The US squandered the benefits of being the only great power for 70 years on cozying up to Chinese bugmen so that a few rich jews in congress could get richer.
Hostile coloniser nation of China?
It looks US citizens can’t digest their dinner without like dissing others.
It’s one of the reasons for the current state of US and it’s vassals.
“It’s one of the reasons for the current state of US and it’s vassals.”
Yes the 7th greatest weakness – it-was-not-me-it-was-my sisterness/it-wasn’t-him-it was-me; (the how strange the change from major to minor) facilitating some to thank them for their services, and others to thank them for their weaknesses, including risible attempts at playing poker/poking, in interaction facilitating “force multipliers/shared complicities”.
And why should he not be? From the start, that is, 2014, Putin has always chosen the worst possible alternative in regards to Ukraine.
In 2014 he stood by and watched as the most blatantly organised coup ever overthrew Yanukovych, and then recognised the Porkyshenko coup regime. I have never found anyone who can justify why he had to recognise it, given that even he calls the nazi regime in Kiev illegal now. Russia doesn’t need to recognise the Taliban to have relations with it.
Then, given the choice of a swift invasion and overthrow of the coup regime, which even the Russian military blogs had been clamouring for (“Putin, dai prikaz!” they kept saying, “Putin, give the order!”) he did nothing. It’s a joke that the Ukranazi army had 800000 troops in 2014 as this article avers; even by their own admission they had about 6000. That’s why they had to dispatch nazi units from Azov and Pravii Sektor to massacre Russian speakers in the Donbass. If they had troops, they would have annihilated the Donbass resistance entirely. Even Putin now admits it was a mistake to not crush the nazis then, but his cultists do not seem to have got that information yet.
Then, after the great victories at Ilovaisk, Debaltsevo, and Donetsk Airport, when the nazis were routed and reeling back in defeat, when in early 2015 the Donbass armies were themselves strong enough to drive them out of Donetsk and Lugansk entirely if not crush the still new and shambolic nazi regime altogether, when even the French media had given up Mariupol as lost, what did Putin do? He cut off assistance so that the LDNR had to stop short of liberating Mariupol and Slavyansk, and imposed the Minsk 2 accord. Most people focus on the absolutely predictable fact that the nazis did not implement Minsk 2, which they had a legal obligation to do; what they refuse to see is that if Minsk 2 had been implemented, the LDNR would have had to disarm and dissolve themselves and put themselves under Ukraine, with a limited autonomy the Ukranazis could have annulled at literally any moment. It was not Putin’s fault that the Ukranazis were too stupid to grab at the chance given them by Putin throwing the LDNR under the bus.
Then, in 2022, Putin sent in a military that was far too few in numbers to do the job it needed to if the Ukranazis didn’t get the message and quickly come to heel. And the original claims of “denazification, demilitarisation, and neutralisation” were obviously rubbish, since Putin was in negotiations with that same nazi regime in March 2022 that according to Putin himself would have meant Russia withdrawing to the 22 February frontlines, left the coup regime in power, allowed it still substantial military forces, and let it accept individual security guarantees from Russia’s Western enemies. Again, it is not Putin’s fault that the nazis were too stupid to leap at the offer and tell Boorish Johnson to go stuff himself.
Even those few troops were given ridiculously restrictive terms of engagement where they could not fire back at civilian buildings from which they were being fired on, because civilians might be hurt if they did. And there were obviously no plans whatever made for a war that lasted beyond 6 months, which is why when the disgusted kontraktniks refused to renew their contracts in June-July 2022 the front found itself denuded of soldiers and the nazis retook Kharkov oblast, Izyum and Kramatorsk with scarcely a shot. The same territory Russia is now being compelled to claw back with every metre being fought over. Meanwhile Putin signed the grain deal which permitted Ukranazistan to smuggle the explosives used in the Kerch bridge explosion.
If you’ve spent the last 8 years preparing for a war, you do not need to announce a mobilisation after much less than a year. You do not have to do any kind of official mobilisation at all. You have the troops, and contingency plans, ready before you begin.
Now, anyone can see that the NATOstani involvement in Ukranazistan has been getting more and more overt by the day. With every Ukranazi failure, instead of being cowed down, NATO is desperately providing the nazis with more and more weapons with longer and longer ranges. NATO is obviously not going to accept defeat. If necessary it will send in forces as Polandistan is apparently now openly preparing to do. Russia can stop this by massively attacking in the long heralded “big arrow offensives”, which will be far more costly in casualties now than they would have been in February 2022 let alone in 2014. Or it can continue just holding the line at Donbass and Zaporozhye in attrition battles that kill hordes of untrained Ukrainian cannon fodder while the actual nazis keep preparing the ground for an open NATOstani involvement.
Given Putin’s history of choices, what do you suppose he’s going to do?
Someone at the RAND Corporation might have a visit by the IRS, or, get charged with an unfitting crime.
Wikipedia say: Democracy … is a form of government in which THE PEOPLE HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO DELIBERATE AND DECIDE LEGISLATION (“direct democracy”) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy
“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” — Abraham Lincoln https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/overthrow_the_government_all_the_ways_in_which_our_rights_have_been_usurped_short
You, as people of USA, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?
The strength of Russia is the balance for the world. If Russia does not resist, the world will be completely devoured by the “Beast” embodied by the “axis of evil” Wall Street – City.
For the good of humanity I hope that Russia never again forgets (like in the 90s) that everything the “West” has been doing for almost a thousand years is just buying time to subjugate them. The “West” does not have and has never had anything to offer humanity, it is just a huge marketing operation.
The empire of the “Venetians” inherited by the Anglo-Saxons and, of these by the USA, only works by looting and pillaging. They do not work to live, as God commands, they only steal; And if they are in a terminal crisis, it is because they no longer have alternatives to plunder and enslave, because the Slavic people resist, in alliance with others who understand that they are going for them.
It was a very interesting article. The only problem is how the author sees Washington, London, Paris…. other European capitals representing their nations like traditionally independent sovereign entities. He seems to believe the Globalists are a separate group of rich people acting on the side of events and not directly involved in politics including wars. But, obviously the current Neonazi proxy army, NATO and all the political parties in US and EU and their politicians are Mercenaries of the Globalists. In fact since taking office, not a single decision made by Joe Biden has served the interests of his nation and on the contrary nearly all his decisions – including domestic issues – served the interests of his own handlers which are the neoliberal capitalist financiers. The reason people in the west don’t support wars initiated by their leaders or are reluctant to join the army is because they understand very well it’s not their wars but those of the elites.
“The West appears to be calling for Ukraine 1) to launch a new and improved offensive in the war to gain some sort of victory before the NATO meeting in order to gain more weapons support from NATO, or 2) to hold its reserve forces back to promote a stalemate and a negotiated ceasefire line similar to the one in Korea.”
I believe that neither of those options are possible. In case of option 1) the best that the ukries could do is some PR-stunt for the western presstitutes to get some support, but given the fact that the west can’t possibly match russians arms and munitions production, in middle- and, especially long term, the ukries would be much, much worsde than now. As for option 2) – the westerners are making the mistake to believe that the russians are willing to negotiate a ceasefire to freeze the conflict. As I stated in a comment under another article, at this point nothing less than unconditional surrender of the regime in Kiev would satisfy the russians. Anyone, who believes otherwise, simply doesn’t know how the russian mind works.
“and allow the Western financial behemoths to control valuable assets in Ukraine.”
And what exactly these valuable assets would be? The more valuable assets in Ukraine (I mean the territory, not the country) are already firmly in russian hands, including the most valuable in strategic terms piece of real estate in the Black sea region – the Crimean peninsula. Whoever control Crimeam peninsula controls the region.
“Part of the Establishment advocates defeating Russia first, then using its resources to help the West contain China.”
The westerners, who believe that they could defeat Russia without triggering nuclear WW3 are delusional.
“get Russia on the side of the West voluntarily and then all-together deal with China”
Not going to happen. Not after all the lies and broken promises. Unless the current regimes in the West are removed from power and the people in charge are tried in russian courts as war criminals – I don’t see the russians trusting the west in foreseeable future.
I think the author has got a few early facts wrong. A major reason Russia did not interfere – send military support – in Ukraine as it did later in Kazakhstan, is because Yanukovych did not ask for help; Tokayev did.
The author states that Ukraine had “the largest army in Europe, some 800,000 troops” but that is incorrect. In 2014 Ukraine had an army of about 130,000 troops, certainly reserves could boost that figure, but it was not really a deterrent. As it turned out, when the Donbass declared independence, a huge part of the Ukrainian army (including arms and equipment) joined the ‘rebels’.
Whatever Russia’s reasons for not getting involved, I do not think it was fear of the Ukraine armed forces.
Thank you for illuminating a point I missed above. Putin’s insistence that the letter of the law be followed forbade him from entering Ukraine in 2014 in the absence of a formal invitation.
As I suggested above, Putin’s insistence that legal forms be followed at all costs are viewed as a weakness to be exploited. They may indeed be exploitable in the short term, but in the medium and longer terms I’d wager that the perception of reliability that that insistence engenders in others will pay enormous dividends.
Another sloppy error setting out the history, the author states, Putin immediately signed papers incorporating some of the separatist provinces as part of Russia based on earlier plebiscites.”
This is not correct. President Putin recognized the two Donbas Republics as independent countries based on their earlier plebiscites. This allowed him to respond to their request for help under the “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine that USA had previously used to validate military action, and which had been recognized as valid by the UN. If President Yanukovych has asked for help, that might have pulled Russia to intervene in 2014, rater than just secure Crimea.
Under President Putin, Russia seems to be a stickler for legality, they delayed acting until all the legal i’s were dotted and t’s were crossed in terms of international law as recognized by previous UN decisions.
I think that if one is going to present a history of what lead to this point, one should be as accurate as possible. Perhaps I am nit-picking, however I think facts are important, and when know, should be presented accurately.
“I think that if one is going to present a history of what lead to this point, one should be as accurate as possible.”
” by Observer R”
The author is aptly designated as an Observer (Spectator) whom you may believe is a practitioner, which may be the case in regard to some amateur “intelligence facilities” such as the C.I.A. , which may explain the methodological ineptitudes illustrated throughout “https://sonar21.com/background-paper-russia-united-states-ukraine/” in formulation of its content, and why the author(s) is/are attempting to be “as accurate as is possible” for her/him/they.
“Perhaps I am nit-picking”
This is not nit-picking on your part but more likely a reaction to expectations of facilities that reasonable cannot be expected by this particular source since “peer review” requires being a peer or better, a point that Mr. Martyanov regularly seeks to illustrate.
Although the timetable has not yet been decided, as a component of the transcendence of the culture of coercive social relations presently self-misrepresented as “The United States of America”, “his story” will through time be transcended by hypotheses to test which may be assigned another title, and archives and other aspects in facilitation will increasingly be broadcast within “the public domain”.
Minor correction on the History. Russia’s first step was to recognize the two break-away Republics and sign a mutual aid Treaty. That legalized the attack on Ukraine. The accession of the Republics came several months later.
Funny how most miss that. Z mentioned nukes in Munich, within days recognition, mutual security and the special operation, so fast the lumbering cyclops was blinded and thrashed about.
Cyclops Polyphem (eats-everything) yelled “nobody blinded me”.
Story from a few km south of odessa…
Yea. They miss that, but repeat ad nauseam that Ukraine gave up nukes that it never had.
As far as Ancient Greece goes, human society did not advance an inch from that period (leaving science & technology aside). Their Democracy was on par with the current ones, and Lesbianism must have been much better than the fascist-satanic creation we have nowdays.
Great article. I particularly appreciate the mention of the Globalist vector. Regarding the lack of a Globalist Army, my opinion is that their strategy is about capturing countries top down, and use heavily militarised police forces to control resistance. In the EU, we’ve already witnessed anti riot units from foreign countries attacking locals.
Thanks Larry. There is NO doubt we are at the beginning of a shift in the international power structure worldwide. To the average citizen, who is paying attention, there appears to be no good choices. The group that I find to be the the biggest threat are the Globalists with their woke agenda, lust for ultimate control, etc. It seems to be a most interesting dichotomy when one considers that its Russia that many in this world are NOW depending on to stop the madness. This after a long struggle called The Cold War to bring down the Soviet Union. From my perspective I see that the new breach of trust is now coming out of Washington DC. As an American, this has been incredibly disturbing to watch develop. There is truly an epic struggle for individual freedom and I fear this time my country is on the wrong side of history.
1990: US commitment to NATO,to defend against WARSAW Pact was 10 Divisions in 10 Days (350,000, 2800 MBTs and as many BFVs) and the Europeans were to provide 1,000,000+. TO DEFEND. All the necessary equipment and ammo were stored in Germany and BENELUX and we assumed Air Superiority with no high level ISR to speak of .No one thought we could invade Russia. Now our ground forces are woke, broke, and incompetent; only good at killing non combatants and insurgents in 2d and 3d rate countries and then declaring victory. If we do send them to be slaughtered, it will be no great loss. Most of the good guys have left the service. The F16s are at the end-of-life and due retirement; good photo op?
“The F16s are at the end-of-life and due retirement; good photo op?”
Regular recycling of “end-of-life and due retirement” stuff costs money. Sending all the trash to Ukrainian junkyard is cash that is hard to leave on the table. Even some old military vehicle enthusiasts/collector are getting on the gravy train. NATO is buying anything, and they can afford increase in prices, because they print money.
Wokeism is a de-nationalizing tool . Woke religious are anti-nationalistic useful-idiots globalists devouts . US woke soldiers hate US.
There is a very obvious Davisian plan to woke every army they can reach , to de-nationalize everyone of them.
But wokeism , like any other cancer killing therapy , kills the hosts … there is the conundrum.
Every nazi army is stronger than its weight . Chechen army is stronger than its weight . Becaue they are hyper-nationalistic.
Russian army is weaker than its weight , because Putin is pathologically anti-nationalist , up to delivering russians to Ukraine’s nazi regime because they were nationalists.
There , is the conundrum.
It’s the Dart Vador principle : the harder the Davosians hit the mass , the weaker they get … because power comes from the people , not from a god.
Good analysis and you brought up several points that have puzzled me for sometime now. Namely, why has Russia not activated its options in Cuba, Venezuela, and Syria. The US mobilized several fronts against Russia with little or no response from Putin. It is almost as if Putin is confident that the US will stand down sooner or later if he does nothing. Opening several other fronts might just make Biden evaluate whether the Ukraine is worth him losing the other fronts. Why is Putin seemingly still sitting on his hands.