I continue to believe the leaked documents reported in the media this week are genuine, as is the consternation voiced by the Biden Administration. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. But the documents tell us nothing about the current situation on the ground in Ukraine. The documents reported on line that I have seen show only two dates — 28 February and 1 March. So the information revealed is considered “old” in the world of current intelligence.
One of my friends who is still active in the intelligence community voiced surprise that this has not happened sooner given the unrest among some in the rank and file of the intelligence community about the U.S. policy in Ukraine and concerns that the U.S. is stumbling towards an unnecessary war with Russia.
Another friend, a retired intelligence officer, commented on my latest piece. He noted some important data points:
Larry, of the few documents I have seen, I agree, they look legit. IF only FVEY documents were released, we’d have a much wider net. But, the Noforn marking limits it to a U.S. person. TS focuses the universe down even further. Taking photographs of the documents may eliminate the ability to determine the specific printer. The printer code is embedded in the paper. I am inclined to believe that the leaker is military associated vice IC. Most IC personnel wouldn’t give these documents the time of day. Too power pointy! Also the PPT is very, very busy, so I would opine it was probably produced at a higher level staff instead of a maneuver element. (I know – DUH.) Probably not DIA. It doesn’t talk about enemy plans, capabilities etc. That leaves us with the Joint Staff and EUCOM. My guess is EUCOM. Just a guess. Someone who is closer to the slaughter would be more motivated to do something about it.
One of the readers of my blog, who has no background in intelligence, asked the following legit question:
If a document (or documents) are marked “NOFORN”, then why would you say “REL FVEY”? FVEY are foreigners by default, so I am confused as to why you would have two contradictory markings, unless I am misinterpreting things?
It makes no sense to say “no foreigners, but FVEY can take a look”.
So I will try to help those with no experience know how to intelligently read the documents released so far from the standpoint of process and procedure. For starters, these documents appear to have been part of a summary report prepared by an organization, possibly the Defense Intelligence Agency, for senior officials and the content deals with a variety of current intelligence matters around the world. That said, a significant portion of that report not surprisingly focuses on the war in Ukraine. Like any newspaper, the Intel Community reports on the “hot” story.
It appears that the overall report is classified TOP SECRET because it contains at least one document that carries a TS classification. However, because it is a summary of intelligence from the various agencies that comprise the U.S. Intelligence Community, not all of the documents are TOP SECRET. Hopefully I can clear up some of the confusion.
For example, the report dated 28 February 2023 (image below) is marked, “SECRET/REL TO FIN, UKR, FVEY, NATO.” This means that specific document can be shared with foreigners. It is not marked NOFORN.
But there also is an image of another document posted on Twitter that is NOT for foreigners. It is dated 1 March 2023. It is marked SECRET//NOFORN:
And I have seen media reports that there is at least one document that carries a TOP SECRET classification. If I was going to write an intelligence piece for the National Intelligence Daily and used three separate pieces of intelligence where one was marked CONFIDENTIAL, one was classified SECRET and one was from TOP SECRET material, the overall report would be classified TOP SECRET, but the paragraph with the CONFIDENTIAL material would be marked CONFIDENTIAL. The CONFIDENTIAL paragraph could be shared with out allies as long as it was not also marked NOFORN.
It appears that whoever purloined these documents took steps to cover their tracks. First, the images of the documents show they were folded. This likely means that someone printed this briefing inside a SCIF (aka Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) and then hid them, maybe in their clothing or in a backpack, and removed the documents from the SCIF.
Second, as my retired intel buddy pointed out, the documents appear to have been photographed, probably an attempt to obscure the printer code is embedded in the paper. The blog, ERRATA SECURITY, describes the process with respect to the Reality Winner case:
Today, The Intercept released documents on election tampering from an NSA leaker. Later, the arrest warrant request for an NSA contractor named “Reality Winner” was published, showing how they tracked her down because she had printed out the documents and sent them to The Intercept. The document posted by the Intercept isn’t the original PDF file, but a PDF containing the pictures of the printed version that was then later scanned in.
As the warrant says, she confessed while interviewed by the FBI. Had she not confessed, the documents still contained enough evidence to convict her: the printed document was digitally watermarked.
The problem is that most new printers print nearly invisibly yellow dots that track down exactly when and where documents, any document, is printed. Because the NSA logs all printing jobs on its printers, it can use this to match up precisely who printed the document.
You can see a full demonstration of this process at their site. I lack the technical expertise to examine the leaked documents to see if the photographed images succeeded in obscuring the markings. We will find out in the coming weeks because counter intelligence officials are certain to consider that possibility.
I have seen some comments around the internet surprised by the banality of the content revealed. Where is Peggy Lee when we need her?
I think the information in these leaked documents is interesting from a historical perspective, albeit recent history. It is a nice benchmark for bloggers and pundits to examine their analysis from that time period in light of this “official” information. But the content, based on what I have seen, probably is not news to the Russian intelligence officers. Like their U.S. counterparts, the Russians are focused on the here and now and the implications for the future.
From a security standpoint, however, it is a big problem for the counter intelligence community. A hunt for the leaker (or leakers) is underway according to press reports and this will be disruptive to the U.S. and NATO intelligence effort. I think that is the serious problem. Whether that was the intent of the leak I do not know. What do you think?
Poison Frogs says
I enjoy reading your blog, ideas, and about your experiences. It’s a ray of sanity in this crazy world we manage to survive in.
The photo of a printed document makes sense; however, the printer still recorded the time, date, document, and ID of the user. While the photo of the print records everything including the camera, lenses, focus, and other myriad of things.
Still, this just happens to show up when Ukrainian forces are on their last leg, doesn’t pass the BS smell test. There are no Ukrainian divisions/brigades able to do a counter-attack. If they try it will be a senseless slaughter of Ukrainians.
So, the only thing the FAKE leaked TOP Secret documents are doing is projecting an Ukrainian force that doesn’t exist in the minds of the sponsors from the west.
Re: Ukrainian loses only in one direction per month ~11,000 ( https://t.me/fred33flint/444 )
The additional data about the photo is called EXIF data. However, this data can be intentionally removed when processing a photo in some photo editors.
EXIF data of a digital photo can be easily edited or deleted by using a EXIF editor which is easily available.
You got my vote with Peggy Lee. “Is that all there is” sums up this maze we scramble through until the final laugh is on us.
The “Leak” has all the hallmarks of the White House concocting the excuse why Ukraine doesn’t make any Big Moves. Look, look over there. Can’t have Big Movement if intelligence gets leaked.
As I understand it, leak was released at beginning of March, but did not get any traction until Bellingcat and NYT pointed it out in April.
If accurate, we are being played.
The rest would be kabuki and Keystone Kops.
your work is amazing
Poison Frogs says
Thank You, Thank You Very Much :]
Poison Frogs says
The ONLY thing that can save Ukraine right now is for the Ukrainians to arrest Elensky, and put him in a padded cell under constant supervision. After that, the new Ukrainian government should have no issue working out a compromise with Russia. They may even get to keep Odessa.
Anything else besides that, will be another million of Ukrainian men dead, 10+ million displaced around the world, and Russia taking over the whole Ukraine (with all the destruction).
And if NATO will dare to go against an already pissed off bear, *you haven’t seen anything, yet*. TM Putin
Ukraine may cease to exist as a state this year ( https://t.me/fred33flint/446 )
Also somehow have to exfiltrate several hundred thousand avowed Nazis in the “government,” also another large overlapping set who are making bank off the corruption/theft of both all that unaudited cash and weapons, all the rest of the “government” (down to local levels) and school teachers and adherents of the new “Orthodox Church.” And all the “NATO” and EU sneaks and careerists with their feet in the Death of the West trough.
Not a complete list, of course. The effing CIA and MI6 types are breeding up lots of cadres and cells to do sabotage and destabilization once the USUK/NATO exit a la Notagain?istan.
Good luck excising the festering sores bred by the neocons and Ukronazi diaspora.
Thanks for the link to Peggy Lee music, very 60’s cool, I’m young enough to have missed her. Her music has that French sarcastic sweetness but it’s in English so I can understand it.
She gives me fever.
In the document titled “Daily Update (D+370)” there are section headings “US/NATO SOF in UKR” and “TOTAL US Pax in UKR”
If “Pax” stands for persons and “SOF” for special forces then this document implies that US/NATO boots are on the ground in Ukraine fighting directly against Russia.
Most uses of SOF (in the Anglosphere) mean Status of Forces – which can refer to physical position (actual deployment), provending and readiness level (for future deployment).
That by itself is not technically a “smoking gun” – the US/NATO can always claim that they are there as “advisors”, or observers, or to track weapons, investigate missing weapons, inspectors, and so on. So basically as non-combatants/not in combat roles.
Both/all sides know perfectly well that this is not the case. But it provides the legal fig leaf.
Furthermore, there are various levels of “plausible deniability”. The numbers shown in the document, even if true, would not include folks such as those who might have signed a piece of paper formally resigning from their jobs (from any USG entity).
This goes beyond debates about Title 10 vs Title 50. At the far end of the spectrum, there are “zero footprint” (or attempted zero footprint). No piece of paper, anywhere.
But this kind of stuff, sexy as it might seem/sound, is not really meant for “scaling” – i.e., large numbers.
It’s not like it’s going to court. What matters is what Russia does on the battle field and what others are going to do in the economic and diplomatic front. Not of that is affected by any arguments by US. All decisions are based on internal gut assessments. The gut assessments world wide is the Western fish is stinking.
A. Dane says
Q: What was the intent of the leak?
A: The leaks highlight that NATO command is compromised by people from within.
It is a clear sign of root from the top, and it may hasten the fracture of the alliance.
I blame the Political sphere in the West for our impending RESET, because since the millennium, the west has been hijacked by political Agents operating on behalf of the Globalist financial Elite, to plunder not only our production base and financial system, but also our military structure, in a hybrid war against National sovereignty for western democratic Nations.
Q: Was supporting Ukraine worth losing Saudi Arabia?
A: The US already lost Saudi Arabia when Globalists decided to invade 7 Nations in 5 years. The Saudis instantly realized that they could no longer trust the US and that they could be the next Nation on the menu.
Q: Is it true that NATO has some 300k troops stationed around Ukraine, and are they equipped?
A: NATO Nations have depleted their military since the end of the cold war, and is no longer able to fight the modernized Russian Army of 1.5 million well equipped and trained men.
Considering that Russia was provoked for decades into finally launching the military operation in Ukraine for its own survival, this Globalist induced proxy war has sent the US and its allies toward a sever RESET.
Q: Are the US, UK and EU Leaders really this incompetent and foolish?
A: No. they have been working as undercover Agents for the Globalist Elite, to plunder the West since 9/11, and put China in charge of their totalitarian New World Order.
Q: How does all this destruction benefit the WEF, Soros and all the Globalist Elite?
A: They decided back in the 1990s to end Western hegemony by destroying democratic Nations from within. National politicians accepted to act as Globalist Agents by accepting dictates like agenda 21 and Agenda 30 from the Globalist Elite controlled UN, which would ultimately destroy all fabrics of Western societies.
The Boogieman invented by the Vatican, as an excuse for a Western RESET into a new dark age, was called Man made Global warming. This new religion was spread via western education, promoted by Globalist Agents, accepted by the millennial generation of the west, but was never accepted in Russia and China.
Q: What is the U$ going to do about losing its hegemonic status?
Anyone who thinks we’re just going to roll over and accept defeat is living in fantasy land.
A: You are late to the Party. The US began its fight against the multipolar world after 9/11, and the fighting will come to an end when the US is going bankrupt and can’t pay its troops anymore.
The NATO provocation against Russia in Ukraine, was well timed by Globalist Agents, because the US was already in decline in 2021, and China could (thanks to Off shoring to china of western Know How) now offer a Global alternative to the US dollar. The Globalist plan was never to defeat the US militarily. but to create the financial conditions for the US economy to collapse. Without money, no US military.
Q: So this is what hybrid-war looks like. Is that what the neo-cons and neo-liberals envisioned?
A: YES, the (Neo) prefix is to identify that both Political isles have united into Fascism, like Germany did pre WWII. Today, Fascism has spread to all NATO Nations, and is steered mainly from Europe by the committee of 300, to erect a totalitarian One World Order lead from China by 2030.
That is the UN agenda 2030.
Q: What could Americans and Europeans do to make the west Great Again?
A: Bring all our Troops home. Defend our Borders. Drain the US and EU political Swamps. End the FED and the ECB. Erect true National Banks. Back our National currencies with Gold. Restart our manufacturing and Energy production. Prosecute war criminals, financial criminals and Political Agents.
Stop interfering in other Nations internal affairs, and dust off forgotten laws to execute National traitors.
Can you link to these UN agendas?
Note China and Russia tightly control influence of their billionaires. So why would they be interested in Georgina Soros and the gang?
Well reasoned up to the point of China. China does not want nor need the Hydra of Western “Elite” degeneracy infecting her shores.
Watching Europe immolate themselves via instructions from the District of Corruption, must be satisfying entertainment in Beijing and Moscow.
John Q. Publicke says
Good explanation of the classification process.
Paulo Guerra says
I think the intention of the leak is very clear, to expose the Biden Administration as “the” belligerent who is driving the war in Ukraine! 24 hours after the French clown Holland confirmed to a comedian – irony – how West provoked the war! Like Merkl.
I even thought that Larry had already rebelled against those who are devaluing the leak of documents because they don’t show anything new?! Because many times we are looking for a specific tree, in this case a super top secret data such as the date of the counter offensive, which in my opinion Russia does not need to be informed of – and we cannot see the forest!
Of course, everyone is going to claim that we have all noticed the US involvement with intel, operating hardware such as HIMARS and sending weapons. But it’s one thing to assume a lot more than supplying weapons, and quite another to have unequivocal proof as paper documents! And with these documents the US is no longer just leading the supply of weapons but is “the” belligerent leading the entire military operation. Without Milley’s permission, there’s no counteroffensive! A great asset for Russia in the eyes of the world and the UNSC! So even Milley shouldn’t be excluded from the leak. Anyone who disagrees with the course of the conflict, as Milley himself has already hinted many times, must be included on the suspect list! Milley can perfectly agree that Biden is doing more harm than good to the US by insisting on this war. Like Sy Hersh fonts!
And finally consequences. Well in Europe the Govts that support the war are all falling! The last one was the WEF scholarship holder, Sanna Marin! Which also shows that Finns are happy to join NATO without a referendum.
I hope the leaker had the computer skills to delete the camera ID or screen shot device ID from the EXIF data embedded in the digital image or they may be very easy to identify unless the camera used has passed through multiple hands since original sale.
The information leaked doesnt tell the Russian Intel community anything they probably didnt already know but it does show the general public how weak the remains of the Ukranian army is implying that the leaker is appalled by this weak force about to be thrown into the meat grinder. Perhaps the leaker was triggered by knowing somebody recently killed in Ukraine likely in the bunkers recently busted by 6 hypersonic missiles.
I would suspect that anybody not being extremely well paid to cover the asses of the Biden Administration would have no loyalty to it & prefer to see it out of office asap and NATO out of Ukraine before the collateral damage to USA gets worse.
Poison Frogs says
You can’t delete anything from a picture. I can recover any deleted, overwritten, falsified info from a picture, and I do that just because I like to play with what can be done, on an amateur level. I can’t imagine what can be done on a professional level with proper tools.
25 years ago one of my kids dropped my precious Kodak digital camera into the warm Mediterranean sea. Two weeks later I’ve recovered my camera, 10 years later I’ve recovered all the pictures. :]
What a man can do to please his wife ;}
Poison Frogs says
Why would you go the trouble of printing 100 pages of TOP secret documents, then take a picture of them when you could just take pictures of the computer screen used for printing?
It makes no sense.
Plus who prints nowadays 100 pages of TOP secret documents, without being flagged, immediately? I knew when my kids abused the home networked printer, and that was 20 years ago :] (the ink was expensive)
Again, it doesn’t pass the BS smell test :]
Larry Johnson says
You’re lack of experience of working in a SCIF is showing. You can’t bring a camera into a SCIF and take pictures. NO CELL PHONES ALLOWED. Stop pretending to understand a process you’ve never experienced.
Printing a report does not raise eyebrows. That’s why there are printers in the SCIF.
Poison Frogs says
“You’re lack of experience of working in a SCIF is showing.”
You are right here, I don’t even know what is SCIF.
Still the flow of documents has to make sense.
The super spy got into the super secured computer system, printed 100 pages without nobody noticing, then went home/or in the bathroom and took pictures of the 100 top secret pages previously stuffed in his pants (again without nobody noticing 100 pages in his pants) then posted the pictures on the Minecraft server. Because this where the super spies post their stuff.
Is that right?
Yes. What do you think Sandy Berger did?
I don’t know how it works either, but I’d guess you have to sign in to a SCIF, and if you use the printer, there’d be a print log that would show the file sizes for the page or series of pages printed, so it wouldn’t take long to figure out who did it, and that assumes you can go in and print a bunch of stuff and carry the printed material out with you, which seems to make some sense given they have printers in there, unless you are supposed to print, read, and destroy or leave behind.
Sneaking out the pages in underwear has been done before, so if we stipulate they printed them and removed them, there’s still the issue of sign-in and print logs to narrow down who did it.
The comment about it maybe being a hack starts looking more realistic, unless it was a deliberate leak for some purpose and all the huffing and puffing is cover. We won’t know unless they pin somebody with it very publicly.
Larry Johnson says
No. In a SCIF you may have as many as 200 people using two printers. There is no way to do a HACK. ZERO. ZIPPO. The only way to do this, based on what I can see on the documents, was a print job that was smuggled out of a SCIF.
Poison Frogs says
I’m old and I wear glasses.
For fun I bought prescription glasses with a built in camera. What I see is always recorded, the resolution is not great but I can see the hairs on a fly legs on my TV
k. talaat says
Larry gave you a hint, take it and google SCIF which is a Sensitive compartmented information facility. I did and guess what? I also learned about TEMPEST. What is TEMPEST? TEMPEST is a U.S. National Security Agency specification and a NATO certification referring to spying on information systems through “””leaking emanations,”””
including unintentional radio or electrical signals,
vibrations. (source: WikiP.)
This opens up a great deal of possibilities.
Frog help the community and let your fingers do the walking.
A close relation works in a ”tank” all day on secret projects. The tank is a number of large offices and effectively a giant faraday cage. Yes the walls are very thick as builders found out when trying to modify / add on office sections – about two feet (yes) of wire mesh, conrete and unidentified stuff.
As you say – no phone, no usb, no recorders, no anything that would allow data out.
Simply Curious says
Why wouldn’t there be rolling video surveillance in a SCIF?
Jim S says
See, what happens is you build the presentation, then you print off a copy to brief off of, then you print off copies of the deck for each of the principles attending, and if you’re a real PPT ranger you put the copies in 3-ring binders with labels printed with the title of whomever the binder is for. Then 12 minutes before showtime a minuscule change comes in and you print everything off again.
In theory automation can reduce workloads; in practice, it triples them. Oh, and it’s been decades since budget offices have had any sense of fiscal responsibility.
Poison Frogs says
I’ve run that scenario through my mind, also, however the printouts are not for a presentation, they are too big. They are on folded paper, and they look like they were NOT folded on A4 format, on purpose.
Maybe somebody else will tell us the folding format
k. talaat says
Tabloid size paper is usually used for large tables, schedules, spreadsheets and technical drawings, then folded to fit an 8.5×11 or A4 in Europe.
muckrakers anonymous says
Nice yellow paper stock though. Blends in nicely with the other colors meant to ‘clarify’, like a rasputitsa.
Larry, my one useful takeaway was how (unrealistically) short the training time was. Also just how hodgepodged the equipment provided was to the point that logistics for it is impissible.
It also is useful, though for pointing to for MSM viewers.
Hi Larry. Would like to point out that occasionally (more common than you would imagine though) we in Australia would get US Int material with the NOFORN caveat. Whether legally or surreptitiously……… The Aust version was AUSTEO (Australian Eyes Only) and I know it was sometimes shared with our Five Eye partners.
Paul Bunyan says
But Australia isn’t a foreign country. More like a rib on Uncle Sam’s rib cage.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Whether they’re real or not, they have absolutely zero chance of being something that Russia will base its decisions and plans on. For one thing Russia has to have sources in the Ukranazi ranks. For another any sane intelligence professional will assume the documents are fake anyway.
Larry Johnson says
I love you, but please. The docs are not fake.
Poison Frogs says
Let’s make it real, if you are right I’ll buy you a pack of good beer of your choice, same with you if you are wrong. :]
Let’s leave it for one year from today 2023.04.09
My word is my soul
Real or not the docs have got a hell of a lot of commenters blathering on about them. Just maybe that is the purpose.
martin mkultra7 says
Where are the Brown Noses citizen journalists on this? says
Belching cat needs to chime in on this. If not, I’ll have to get my junior g-man and dick tracy decoder ring out from the attic.
I think it’s possible one of our intelligence agencies was hacked, Larry. I had a blog awhile back that schools, corporations and military bases would block their locations from accessing. Most used virtual blocks of IP addresses, so I couldn’t pinpoint their locations or who they were exactly. But the one real IP address I got was from that army intel unit in Sierra Vista, AZ. I almost fell out of my chair, that scared me so much. I quickly deleted it, since I’m not a hacker.
Ever since then, I’ve figured that our national secrets are an open book. I think someone in another country has created an elaborate hoax with hacked data, and they’re laughing at us.
Scots bloke says
Historical or not in intel terms, I wonder whether the Biden administration consternation you talk about Larry is due to the fact that somewhere in these documents is something that might lead the Russians to an undercover agent in its armed forces or Ministry of Defence?
The resume of the forces that NATO/USA is putting together is interesting and commentators have been allowed to see how their deductions fit with these documents.
On a spy-vs-spy basis, how many levels of deception work? Let us consider that the documents are genuine; the counter-spy will try to prove they are forgeries; the spies check on factuals; more counter-spy attempts to prove the real false, and so on and on. We only have to see how this works with the Nordstream disinformation campaign and how it gets more and more ludicrous until everyone throws up their hands at the various contradicting and obfuscating narratives.
Let us not beat ourselves up about the genuiness of these documents. What is the most important thing here is that it appears there are sufficiently worried or upset people within the NATO command and/or US command system who are willing to risk a great deal in leaking such documents.
Caveat here: it is not a disinformation leak — I think it highly unlikely IMHO due to the way it presents a very poor image for NATO/Ukraine. If, as some suggest, NATO is seeking to bluff Russia, this is not a good way to do it.
I got a Ukie yacht to sell you!
k. talast says
The Ukries and there yacht story is inaccurate. James Bond 007 did it.
Playing the skripka whole Rome burns says
I’ll just bet the Skripals were in on it. I heard the daughter took second place in her diving class competition in 8th grade.
Power pointy is why I thought they were fake. Good way to get fired overachieving like that in .gov. Internal docs i’ve was exposed to never looked that good.
Hal Duell says
Fake or real, printed or photo’d, relevant or not, what this leak shows above all else is that the wheels are coming off of Biden’s wagon. And not before time.
Not just Biden’s either. The Duran mentioned this morning that while Macron was being a boor in Beijing, the partisans in Paris burned down his favorite restaurant.
Real Docs or fake Docs, its all smoke and mirrors.
Famous American Quote
“Nothing to see here folks, move on.” As the building behind the uniform explodes in flames. America lies at the “best of times, in “the worst of times,” the lips flap and the teeth chatter as the leaks leak, like a midnight piss.
Then again you never know
General Milley may have had another phone chat with his old China mate, time for a colour, red white and blue, revolution.
Washington is so damned crazy, anything can happen………As when Blinkie sings the blues, it comes with his own craggy negro vocal interpretations.
I kid you not, when I heard it I had to reached for the pop corn.
No need for anyone getting their knickers in a knot until the stress levels are peaking. Anyroad, something bigger has gotta happen next week,…… forsure.
Larry are the leaked docs assumed to be what the US planners consume whole-hog? Too little serious hardwares to dent Russian defenses. Do they still snort from the same supply Elensky has, or were NATO inventories simply dried up in March?
the blame-e says
“. . . the U.S. is stumbling towards an unnecessary war with Russia.”
Not at all. World War III is inevitable. Look at the facts. Intelligence has nothing to do with this one. Stupidity only produces one thing — stupid results.
The United States (and the west) picked up where Nazi Germany left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans.
To the United States, the Russians and the Russian people are like the Clampetts in the “Beveryly Hillbillies.” Except these hillbillies are sitting on vast reserves of natural gas, oil, coal, minerals and rare earths, in “shameful abundance.” Resources that the west is running out of.
Since the sanctions, and the blowing up of $20-billion dollars in critical German civilian infrastructure, Germany is back to burning coal. Except Germany has no coal. Germany is burning lignite, which is just one level up from burning dirt. In fact, lignite is referred to as “brown coal.” You can’t have a first world economy without cheap and plentiful and easy to get to natural resources.
Ukraine is sitting on an “embarrassment of riches” in arable land that the west openly covets because without vast amounts of fossil-based, industrially made, fertilizers, the west would have nothing but desert to grow crops on. Ukraine has the land; Russia possesses the fertilizer.
Come and take it. Except for one thing. These hillbillies have nuclear weapons. Russia ain’t no Jed Clampett with only is flintlock rifle to protect him.
“. . . the U.S. is stumbling towards an unnecessary war with Russia.”
Not true. World War III is an essential war — with Russia.
There’s a degratory term in finance world for Western sexpats – FILTH. Failed in London, try Hongkong.
We see failed in Germany, try US attempt in broad daylight.
the blame-e says
“From a security standpoint, however, it is a big problem for the counter intelligence community. A hunt for the leaker (or leakers) is underway according to press reports and this will be disruptive to the U.S. and NATO intelligence effort. I think that is the serious problem. Whether that was the intent of the leak I do not know. What do you think?”
I think people don’t realize just how large, and how vast, and how powerful these seventeen (17) securities agencies are. Being “disrupted” is the natural state of U.S. and NATO intelligence. Just one crisis after another; real or imagined it doesn’t matter.
People like Elon Musk keep talking about the dangers of AI. If people are talking about it, then it already exists. It’s like talking about trillions when you’re running out of billions. It’s like talking about quadrillions when you are running out of trillions. Knowing how degenerate our government is, my bet is they already have a working AI, and that AI is working for them, and is “on the case.” Everybody’s case.
If any of this security shit is real, the real question then becomes “Whose security?” Not mine. And certainly not yours.
Meanwhile the world chess master championship is being played in Astana Katzakstan this weekend. The current world champion Magnus Carlson declined to defend the title after having it 5 years. This is the Bobby Fisher Kasporov game.
The 2 players are : Ian Nepomniachtchi Russia and Ding Liren China it begins on Sunday, April 9, at 15:00 Astana time.
Liren is the first Chinese to make it this high. For women libbers reading there is one female GM she is number 85 of the top 100 all the rest are men. This is why they have female leagues in chess like they do in sports. Some clever male needs to become a trans and win their tournaments.
In a previous life with a Secret clearance, it was a source of constant irritation that the least security conscious place was usually within “…a SCIF (aka Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility)” – screens left open, documents stacked like last week’s Sunday supplements awaiting recycling and the complete spurning of ‘need to know’.
That was 20yrs ago, in a FVEY land far, far away but plus ça bloody change.
the blame-e says
In a previous life of my own, I once worked for a high-tech research firm and research laboratory where I held a classified clearance to work with top secret documents. My job was to take the scientist’s work and translate it into whatever language the government agency we were submitting an RFP to spoke in.
There were a couple of fire-proof cabinets in our offices, with re-enforced combination locks on them. Depending on what project we were assigned to, these cabinets held the documents associated with that project. These cabinets were only opened by my manager, in the presence of the over-all manager of the laboratory. The rest of us were required to politely and discreetly excuse ourselves from the immediate area.
This facility was closed in the late 1990s. And there it has sat, completely cleaned out and sitting dark, emptied of everything but those two cabinets all these years. An independent security firm still patrols the grounds.
But those cabinets. Somebody forgot about them. And there they have sat for almost 30-years.
You know what really matters to me? That I once worked for a company, where the people I worked with were my peers, people that I respected and admired. I used to work full time, with full benefits, making the kind of money where I only had to say the company’s name to receive a nod of respect. Boy, did I feel good about life. Those days are gone.
That’s what I remember; not any of this other leaked document security stuff. None of this “leaked” stuff matters. To me, it all looks like the bus schedule for some place like Seattle.
I thought BLM burned all the buses in Seattle.
It is interesting though that the MSM (I’m in Europe), who absolutely ignore other stories that really matter (like Hersh’s article on NS2) do report extensively on this leak.
I would expect them to remain silent if Washington was really embarrassed.
Combine this with the fact that the documents do not reveal anything really special.
Yes the docs may be real but I do not exclude the leak might be deliberate for some reason, maybe to prepare an off-ramp…?
An interesting point – don’t focus on whether or not the document is real or fake; rather, try to understand the motivation and timing of the leak.
Misdirection, the wilderness of mirrors, nested motivations, nested WUSAPS, wheels within wheels, plausible deniability, Title 10 vs 50 vs zero footprint/paper
Ghost of Mozgovoy says
I am not paying much attention these days, since trying to be out in the nature and disintoxicate myself from devices, but what I am seeing is a huge effort to broadcast that the UAF will initiate a counteroffensive around end of April or May….
Why would you announce your plans to the four winds?
That this leak happens just now looks like a coincidence, but we know there are no coincidences neither in intelligence nor in geopolitics….
While you look at a squirrel passing, there is turmoil growing in the Middle East…people is being battered and gassed while praying into Al Aqsa and a nuclear submarine has beem sent there….
Opening another front….to WWIII….
Ghost of Mozgovoy says
Have the Jewish banking people turned their initial goal of building New Jerusalem in Ukraine to the somehow so far parked goal of Greater Israel?
Israel is attacking Syria as the latter answered a previous strike on its territory….
This is the pay for the Iran-Saudi Arabia-Syria alliance….stting the Middle East on fire
This smells of Bellingcat.
Marek B. says
I find your expertise and the people associated with you who have looked at the documents to be credible.
I doubt that the information is outdated. The basic situation on the front has not changed significantly. The offensive on the part of Ukraine has been intensively discussed since at least January. Assuming that the documents do not contain any news for the Russian side (which I doubt), they at least serve to validate their own findings.
Am I wrong about that?
k. talaat says
One of the Main Stream Media outlet mention that the purpose of the leak was to inflate Ukraine casualties in relation to the Russians casualties and the facts on the ground support the opposite. Why lie about a leak that reflects the truth? Doesn’t this authenticate the leak.
First, Happy Easter to all who celebrate the Ressurrection today. For my Orthodox Bros., next Sunday.
Second, do we really give a hoot about all this internal Intel Comm crap? Let the dead bury their dead. Macro effects are what matter in daily living.
Are you free to speak your mind? Is The State confiscating your firearms? Have you lost your job because some woke jackass was offended when you used yesterday’s language?
Larry, please don’t turn into CNN or MSNBC or NPR, using what an old boss of mine described as, “using a micrometer to measure fly shit”.
Dear Don Larry.
Ana Belén Montes, the most effective and damaging Cuban spy known to have penetrated US intelligence, was a key spy in the long and dirty war between the United States and her communist neighbor.
QOn January 6, after serving just over 21 years of a 25-year sentence for espionage, she was released from a maximum-security prison, perhaps drawing the curtain on a deadly clandestine effort by Cuban exiles and their US allies to reverse the revolution led by by Fidel Castro.
At the time of her arrest in 2001, Montes had been an undercover spy within the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for 17 years.
Slava Rossia! says
Legit or not
Russia does, what it does, best
Send to the meat grinder the ukrozionazi beast!
Aleksandra M Rohde says
The latest rumors is that the real damage of these documents are revealing is that US spies on its allies and that it can’t be trusted safeguarding classified docs.
That everyone already knew.
This looks like simple bite sized stuff for mass public and media consumption.
Happy Resurrection Sunday.
Christ has defeated death.
No Name says
It makes for interesting discussion. But in the end, none of this matters, because Russia will not use supposed Western intel, legit or not, without confirming things from its own side.
In other words, Russia will believe its own non-lying eyes before anything else.
Let’s face it, even most sane Westerners don’t believe anything their governments say. And Russia is at least as sane as most sane Westerners.
But it is fun if the Western IC gets into a circular firing squad over it. We reap what we sow after all.
In my humble estimation these leaks are a gift to Russia.
They are the receipts shows this war belongs entire to the United States.
Also demonstrates to everyone including the European citizens they are U.S. vassals caught in a different kind of meat grinder one instigated by again the U.S.
ARE THE LEAKED MILITARY INTELLIGENCE DOCS LEGIT?
In proximity of striptease, the wise watch the audience not the stripper, whilst spectators assess the assets of the stripper and cui bono.
ARE THE LEAKED MILITARY INTELLIGENCE DOCS LEGIT?
Has her/his “ass” been sculpted, and for whose benefit ? in emulation of “social norms” in hope of facilitating obfuscation.
Ghost of Mozgovoy says
The thing is that there must not be peace, since when in peace people take their hand ot their wallet to notice it has thinned quite abit since the last time he/she assesed his/her assets…
There will be no peace until the Great Reset has taken place…..and all the assets are stolen….
The 10 Leopards which Spain is “ceeding” to Ukraine, needed to be actualized to be ready for combat…
Santa Bárbara Sistemas, a franchise in Spain of US MIC Corp. General Dynamics, agreed to put the tanks to day for 5 millions euro which we pay the Spanish taxpayers….Thi is for sure so in the whole EU…
The same happened with stopping our economies because of the pandemic and the contracts of “vaccines”…
We are aware this is one of the reasons we have now to work until 67 years old…
Of course, the show must go on…so that they drain us to the bones….
Related…how is that Macron is so feted in China?
Richard C McDonald says
Here’s a Russian evaluation of some of the “leaked” Ukraine docs from a Colonelcassad Telegram post. They makes some good points in his/their analysis;
What’s wrong with the “secret plan” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (part 2): analysis of the military chronicle
In the first part of a large analysis of supposedly secret documents, we noted that the authenticity of the data is highly questionable. In the second part of the oddities with the origin of information turned out to be even more.
What information is published?
The second part of the document examines the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counter the activity of Russian aviation and cruise missile strikes, as well as the supply of Ukrainian army units with the necessary ammunition for combat operations.
True, on several pages the phrases top secret , hinting at the closed nature of the document, are adjacent to the phrases Based on known contributions, training pathways and projections. This means that the “secret plan” was written on the basis of known data, and not intelligence, which automatically casts doubt on its validity.
What data is most questionable?
According to the report, the SA-10 (S-300) and SA-11 (Buk) systems make up 89% of Ukraine’s air defense. It also contains data that the Ukrainian air defense forces used up the ammunition for the Buk air defense missile systems by March 31, 2023, and the entire ammunition for the S-300 missiles will be used up by the beginning of May this year. At the same time, there is no real assessment of the stocks of missiles for these complexes in the document, and all proposals for supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine boil down to the need to “re-equip” the Ukrainian air defense forces with such missiles. There is no data on where such missiles will be taken from. The plan also reports the exhaustion of the stock of missiles for the IRIS-T SL and NASAMS air defense systems. The missiles for these complexes were supposed to end at the Armed Forces of Ukraine in February and April 2023, respectively. This might look like the truth, if not for one but.
In some lines of documents, the name of the NASAMS air defense system is misspelled, without the last letter – NASAM, which is unacceptable in documents of this level. Briefings with sensitive data are always checked before publication.
There is another oddity as well. In official NATO documents, the weapons of the USSR / RF are indicated in the NATO codification. There is no uniformity in style in the leaked documents – the text contains a mixture of official code designations and transliteration of names from Russian into English – S-300 / OSA, etc. In addition to spelling errors, there are other inaccuracies.
On the combat duty map of NASAMS complexes in Ukraine, 49 points are indicated where these air defense systems are located. However, in reality, Kyiv uses only two air defense systems of this type. Eight more NASAMS kits are included in the USAI packages: they are ordered from industry, but have not yet been delivered to the customer. It is physically impossible to place NASAMS at 49 points in such conditions.
What else is wrong?
There are inaccuracies in the published structure of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On numerous videos, training on German Leopard 2 tanks was carried out by tankers from the 4th brigade. However, the leaked documents indicate that the German tanks went to the 33rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This unit was disbanded in 2016 and then re-formed as a reserve. For the offensive, it would be more logical to train already experienced tankers, and not to give scarce equipment to the reserve.
What is the result?
When drawing up such a plan, the command of the US Army in Europe (EUCOM) should not have assumed and taken data from open sources, but should know exactly how many weapons, equipment and people the Armed Forces of Ukraine have.
When creating this supposedly secret document, the authors did not include in it such protected topics as the number of HIMARS MLRS and other high-precision weapons deployed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which suggests the involvement of Ukrainian analysts in the work, who are forbidden to write on such topics. In a genuine briefing created by the US military “for its own”, all the necessary data would be indicated.
Larry Johnson says
Colonel Cassad makes the same mistake that you and others like you are making. You assume that a legit intelligence document is going to be free of errors and have 100% accurate information. Well, they don’t.
The perpetual critic says
Sounds about right. Gud enuf fer govermint wurk.
Leaks are all fake according to Helmer, they are not new at all. Nyt cia psyop.
The neocons within the Biden Administration are committed to escalating the Russo-Ukraine War as far as necessary in order to achieve their goal of regime change. This means that a potential hot war with Russia is a non-trivial probability and a nuclear exchange is also not out of the question. Given this seriousness and urgency, it is reasonable that someone within the US military command structure (likely in Europe) felt it necessary to sound the alarm about where things are headed (canary in the coal mine). Is this an act of treason or self/global-preservation? IOW, when do we assess that the enemy is actually us (as in the Biden Administration)? One could argue that it is dereliction of duty to stand aside and do nothing.
Old Microbiologist says
I agree. This is going to be a goat rope with regards to security procedures, levels of classification and access. The first stop will be cutting off all non-essential personnel from any access at all. I recall after the Walker debacle I lost my TS clearance for about 5 years as I was not really required to have it any longer so no big deal. Many years later, I needed access to the TS classified libraries at Dugway and USAMRIID and had it reinstated. That was a real PITA. I was shocked to see just how many people had TS clearances compared to before when it was still a relatively select few. I saw pretty much anyone could get access and it was way out of control.
I believe something similar happened after Manning released his stuff and perhaps again one more time later. So, here we go again. With an active war on the cusp of the US becoming actively involved this is going to severely damage intel access and in particular the end users. People deep in intel production forget there is a train of people downstream (the actual workers not high-level retarded political appointees) that are dependent on the product but it is exactly these people that lose access first. This will not help especially given the witch hunt just beginning.
Western public support is based on perception Russia is losing more people than Ukraine and Ukraine has a realistic chance.
What stands out is first:-
17k Russia dead v 70k Ukrainians dead.
The rest is detail.
If this was headlining in the West it would be game over for support.
Second it makes it clear military and political leaders are lying.
So message of leak:-
The Ukrainians are taking far heavier losses and struggling. And be careful, your leaders are lying to you.
Whatever one thinks of NYT. This was well reported. UK press has buried it.
I saw a thread that was claiming that the 17k vs 70k was edited for Propaganda.
The original document seems to say:
For Russian forces:
72 fighter/bomber: 82 rotary wing
6,004 ground vehicles
For Ukraine forces:
60 fighter/bomber; 32 rotary wing
11 Strategic SAMs; 34 tactical SAMs
Hard to tell which is true, but the 17k russian dead vs 70k ukrainian dead version format does seem slightly off (due to photoshop?)
Both are possible. The one who mentioned the edit says that the US forces rely on intel from Ukraine, so they basically parrot whatever was fed, which may lead to such numbers being possible? This shows US incompetence.
If the real version was indeed 17k R v 70k U, then it means US knows what is really happening but still proceeds to meat grind Ukraine. This shows the cruelty of US.
Still waiting and hoping for a better review of the details of the documents. Indeed, it is important to see the authenticity of the documents, but the weight of the details matters even more. Russia mentioned that no new details were really revealed in the leaks. The intel must be leaked for a reason. It should have certain details worthy for the mole to risk his job and life to give such a leak, but so far nothing seen seem to really be worth the risk.
If anyone has any links or websites giving more insight into the details and their impact, do let me know. Quite curious about this but too much focus has been on proving that there is a real mole or the PR of this matter.
Where fools rush in.... says
Russia shells 5 times what Ukraine shells but suffers five times the casualties.
Yep, I’ll be sure to tell my friends about that one…..next April fools day.
No need, by then they will be well past the next ‘thing’ and on to the ‘thing’ after that.
It might be one of the many future excuses planted in advance for the ‘failure of the offensive’ and war in general. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/anticipated-ukrainian-counter-offensive-potentially-marred-plans-leak-reports. Blaming Trump will be included too I suppose.
It may be fake News, but why if documents are genuine would NYT take down the paywall so that everyone can see them?
Anything in the MSM is published for a reason. In the case of Ukraine black is always white.
Based on your examination Larry, and it makes a lot of sense if I get you right, somebody has a conscious which led them to exposing these documents. Second guess would be somebody holds a grudge or is vindictive and acted out to cause trouble or damage somone or some entity.
Only other thing it could be is fake and gay clown world. More cow bell. But that seems too stupid for it to be the case. Too stupid because if one has been keeping track and has a modicum of understanding the military situation the documents are not new news. If anything the situation for the ukronazis is a lot worse in terms of resources and manpower.
And I say that from a Russian Alliance perspective. How they have to have all that intel, and, on what NATO has up its sleeve, which if the Russians are doing everything right, they can roll up whats left of the Ukrainian army along the line of battle any time almost any place of their choosing. But they choose not to do that. That goes back to the stated objectives of the Russians, to demilitarize, but it might be more so to de-nazifi as much as is posdible to do that, to attrit the ukie army to the point it draws in more ukronazis and kill them. Lot easier to get the ukronazis this way while it is a 1200K line of battle, than they survive in larger numbers and they are a problem later which they will be if their numbers are not reduced to the last of their crooked deranged leadership. Because these ukronazis are literally a virus a plague on the world. Whatever passess for the elite if the elites, has nurtured this poison and made it infect the world knowing quite well what a weapon and instrument of destruction they are.
Got no doubt at all the Russians are focused on this neo-nazi element, they know what nazi is. They understand the existential problem. And that right there is motive number one why everything is orientated towards destroying Putin, his Warriors and this insurgence of a reborn Orthodox Christian, Time Honored Tradition Russia. It is the Russians as threat to this neo-world order, same order as been all along, only rebranded, being it is Easter its fitting to say its the money changer problem been causing evil all this time. Its one faction fighting another faction. Everyone can be seen are simply proxies of warring factions of an underworld of factions. They are fighting over who gets to rule over all other factions. I mean thats ultimately at the crux of it. Its not cynisism it is at the core a war within a war with really complex window dressing. Something we can not see something we are not permitted to know exists. Things are coming to a head and the seams of the unknown unknowns and the unknown unknown unknowns are starting to show. Thats why some hinky stuff is showing up. Things that do not make sense on the face of it. Because the unknowns, things we just do not know about, but we see the unintended consequences and those make us go hmmm. Now thats strange.
If you ask me, i say something really big happened recently. Something that is relative terms to the real powers that be behind the obvious PTB front they let us see, what that is, is hard to say specifically, but what happened changed everything, so much so all the old P’sTB no longer have any power they always had. Its a total end of the old system these factions ran, their money system has ended. The thing with these factions is they are so used to running and controlling everything they can not imagine they no longer have control over how money is made, the source of their wealth is gone. It can not be retaken either. That is the big thing. There is still a big slug of the old money in the old system, but they see they know the end if that slug of money is coming, they are fighting over this end of the money, while vying to take control from each other because they expect the system to come back to them. Because they think themselves precious, special. They’ve all ruled at one time or another, swapping places so long they can not imagine it is ended. And right now they are acting as if they still have power, because all of us not inside their system do not know what has happened, keeping up the grift is critical. A big tell is right on those documents, its a compound tell actually. It is glaring at us, almost screaming but nobody is hearing it.
WHERE ARE ALL THE WONDER WEAPONS?
Look at the list of supplied “NATO” arms on the list. What do you not see? How can it take so long to “prepare” all the latest generation tanks? How? Not how. Can’t. As in can not because they do not exist in the inventories. The little inventory that actually exists exists as either puff pieces for the illussion there is this massive NATO stockpile of wonder weapons, when their ain’t. As in they do not exist. There’s yards full of wore out broke down junk, sitting in nice rows. Why? Same why there is only enough latest gen tanks and combat aircraft, because for a ling time now all they had actually running was what they needed to have to create the illusion there is this huge NATO armory if weapons and munitions. Because they have turned NATO into a money laundering machine. They got to the point of greedy where they even used maintenance of this stockpile to launder money, to transfer the wealth of the western hemisphere to themselves and keep the pipeline going steady. Ask yourself how they could dump in one year, (on top of 10 years of money put into Ukraine since Maiden in 2014), they dumped in a years time more money than the entire Russian military expendenture. Where did it go? Where did the trillions in US military budgets go to?
Look at that pathetic list of tanks. LOOK AT IT!
All they got is some old first and second gen Leopards? WWII towed 105mm cannons.
You got to be shitting me!
There is no vaunted NATO armory of weapons because it does not exist. What is being sent is what they can scrape from the bottom of the junk stockpile. Left over from when they first began using NATO as a wealth transfer – wealth strip miner machine.
And excuse my french, it needs saying this way; they are fucked from both ends now, fucked because in short order that slug of remaining old money coming out of the old wealth transfer conduit is about to pop out, combined with the truth everything that was functional in the pretend NATO has been sent to Ukraine, all thats left is some shiny bayonettes and fancy show pieces, the ends of both rackets are showing up together real soon, might already hapoened, and these documents are the truth, that essentially this is all that can be sent because there is nothing to begin with. Not in the sense of this huge mighty fighting machine, not in the sense there is an actual war machine representing the countless trillions spent on it. That does not exist. It has not existed for decades, alls thats left is what was there when they turned the NATO military machine into a money laundering machine. A Wealth Transfer System. The Military Infustrial Complex became the essential cover story thru which all that wealth us good folks busting ass created stolen from us thru the slavery of taxation racketeering shakedown and extortion. They been using us as slaves, because what is wealth but energy, the energy of people that people use to make something or do something, of value, they mined us for our energy, and that energy is of value, it is this energy that is the origins of wealth of money, because, it has to come from someplace, some source to begin with, and how it is rxtracted from the source is determined by how much energy each of us have. The origins of money.
And this is a war right now over our energy which is wealth which is money and they want it, not just that they need it and need it bad because the source no longer exists. And they think they can keep going having power if they mine us to death of every erg of our wealth.
Ask yourself why is there not even enough arms and ammo betweenhow many countries in NATO to equip the Ukrainians with enough stuff to fight one counter attack? There is not enough there on that list and they do not know if there will be enough. Its printed on paper right there you can read what it says all of it thats it thats all they got? All they got?!!! You got to be kidding me!
JJS in AZ says
I think they know the counter-offensive will fail spectacularly, and they want to point to a “Russian Colluder” in the IC community as a scapegoat for their abject failure.
If after a hundred billion or so and the “best training and weapons in the world,” Zelensky still loses it can’t possibly be that the Russians are our equals.
Thanks for all the work and explanations. Does it really matter? As a novice NO. My basic assumptions are simple. Who will win and why? I also believe this should probably be well understood BEFORE not AFTER. It’s clear back when sanctions started this strategy was a disaster. It actually was announced on Friday Biden would target sanctions. Then reversed on Monday to total ban on swift. Audit trading accounts of congress as they sold into a 700 pt rally only to collapse in unison with the corporate facists on Monday. A uniform pull out that was planned. How do you sanction 10 percent of world oil without screwing yourself let alone all the other commodities that Russia produces? The size of Russian forces vs Ukraine should also tell you that most likely Ukraine isn’t going to win. Punishment for the all the stupidity. Won’t happen it will once again be pushed aside when the war ends so they can shift to more stupidity elsewhere. Stupid is as stupid does. We don’t have a functioning government anymore that’s just the facts. Intel leaks or not the system is completely broken.
Horne Fisher says
Given that the crazies in the basement are in charge, and their political tool of choice is the Straussian exoteric noble lie to cover up their real objective, this seems to me just executing one of the second layer lies that such strategy requires. So while the document is certainly legitimate as far as the person who drafted it and is based on facts on the ground, it was leaked in order to pave the way for some other purpose geared more towards a different lie.
That lie being, social media is making the US less safe because of important classified strategy being leaked to the Russians. The Russians obviously haven’t learned anything they don’t know already. So there seems to be no military danger in there being leaked. It’s just that Americans are so heavily propagandized that they think it is a danger. So go ahead and destroy the 1st amendment. Just keep me safe.
The Intercept as LEAKRAG seems appropriate, is the founder a former colleague of Elon Musk(those spectrum kids came up with PAYPAL:)? Verboten to believe these STEM kids don’t have our best interests tied up in their AI collection, thus the new MUSK/TAIBBI dustup. Define Noble Lie and you may be on the road to recovery.
From the t. me/milchronicles
According to the report, the SA-10 (S-300) and SA-11 (Buk) systems make up 89% of Ukraine’s air defense. It also contains data that the Ukrainian air defense forces used up the ammunition for the Buk air defense missile systems by March 31, 2023, and the entire ammunition for the S-300 missiles will be used up by the beginning of May this year. At the same time, there is no real assessment of the stocks of missiles for these complexes in the document, and all proposals for supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine boil down to the need to “re-equip” the Ukrainian air defense forces with such missiles. There is no data on where such missiles will be taken from. The plan also reports the exhaustion of the stock of missiles for the IRIS-T SL and NASAMS air defense systems. The missiles for these complexes were supposed to end at the Ukrainian Armed Forces in February and April 2023, respectively. This might look like truth, but here is a couple “buts” that stand out.
In some parts of the documents, the name of the NASAMS air defense system is misspelled, without the last letter – NASAM, which would seem an unacceptable error in documents of this level. Briefings with classified data must always be checked before publication, don’t you think? Plus, in these official “NATO documents,” the weapons of the USSR / RF are indicated in the NATO codification. However, no uniformity in style can be observed throught the leaked documents. The text contains a mixture of official code designations and transliteration of names from Russian into English – e.g., S-300 / OSA, etc.
In addition to these spelling errors and codification errors, there are other inaccuracies as well. Thus, on the combat duty map of NASAMS complexes in Ukraine (excuse my English), 49 points are indicated where these air defense systems are located! However, in reality, Kyiv uses only two air defense systems of this type. Eight more NASAMS kits are included in the USAI packages. An order has been placed with the industry to produce these, but as far is known to the Russian side, there was no delivery to the customer as of yet. It is physically impossible to place NASAMS at 49 points under these cicumstances. Further on, there are inaccuracies in the part that describes the structure of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On numerous videos, training on German Leopard 2 tanks was carried out by the tankers from the 4th brigade. However, the leaked documents indicate that the German tanks have gone to the 33rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This unit was disbanded in 2016 and then re-formed as a reserve. For the upcoming offensive, it would be more logical to train already experienced tankers, and not to give valuable yet present in insufficent numbers equipment to the reserve units.
Finally, when drawing up such a plan, the command of the US Army in Europe (EUCOM) should not be making assumptions relying on the data available from open sources, but should know exactly how many weapons, equipment and bayonets the Armed Forces of Ukraine have at their disposal before a major offensive starts.
When creating this allegedly secret document, the authors did not include in it info on such protected topics as the number of HIMARS MLRS and other high-precision weapons deployed in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which may suggest the involvement of Ukrainian analysts in the work, who are forbidden to write on such topics under all circumstances. In a genuine briefing, were it created by the US military “for their own eyes only”, all the necessary data would be in there.
Larry Johnson says
You have no experience in this field and are speculating from your ignorance. You obviously are not reading what I’m writing or you have a problem with comprehension.
Real vs Fake is not a concern, IMO.
The RF/Donbass integrated force placements have been described by many observers/commenters as being from open source material. Not concerning info, IMO.
More interesting is the wide dissemination of SOME (emphasis), not all of the doc drop throughout NATOstan. Curious, since there are ‘blackouts’when real news, such as with the Hersh confirmation of the source of the Nordstream 2 sabotage. More below.
Why? One possibilty is that the discussed Banderistan docs are sanitized – part real, part fake – disinformation. If so, this is not likely to be aimed at RF, but could be used to find and purge internal alphabet agencies of those not sufficiently loyal, among other possible reasons. Additionally, in the same vein, it could be to prepare the sheeple for the collapse of Banderistan and shift to increase tensions, provocations towards China. Another is that there is an internal resistance to the globalist reset that is wider spread than imagined and increasingly is concerned and wants to stop before too-late is reached. These are not the only possibilities, but are intriguing to consider. There are more possibilities, probably better that these that immediatly came to mind.
There are reports that leaks, whether from the same source doc drop or another, include the Middle East and China. Have not come across any discussion or examples of these. Curious isn’t it? Maybe I missed the thoughtful discussions of the doc drop concerning the Mid-East and China. Have links to where those discussions are?
That is a much more important area of focus. RF and China diplomacy in the mideast bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia back to recognition and copperation. Syria being welcomed back to Arab League. Saudi Arabia abandoning the US, the accerating collapse of the $$$, BRICS and SCO expansion, etc. The cost of my Tamazula is likely to increase if Mexcco joins BRICS! (Hmm, will it then be BRICSM?)
The focus on only the Banderistan portion and the blackout of the doc drop on the Middle East and China point toward disinformantion to distract from more pressing concerns as it contines to unfold. Nothing to see here, move along. Look the coke-snorting, cross-dressing pianist is playing again!!! Free!!! Not pay-for-view!!!
Banderstan is decided, the timing and how many killed are the only questions. Timing is likely to be longer and shorter than those who focus on only the immediate within the ‘borderlands,’ depnding on where one who is observing stands. For one side this is an existantial conflict that has only one resolution; whether the other side pushes it to nuclear conclusion or not. WWIII has much wider focus and other, possibly more important overall theatres.
I think whoever did this did it for 3 key reasons – First , to delay and if possible derail the war fever to cross a threshold from where there’s no return. Secondly, to ensure that the people across the world are alerted to the US war effort but also let them know that it’s already doomed to failure and there’s no point in throwing good money in this neocon wet dream. Thirdly and most profoundly,they did it to assuage and reassure their own conscience, their soul and maybe for their children and loved ones that they didn’t just stand around and do nothing as a coward while the world was being destroyed by mad men and women – Personally this looks like an act of immense moral outrage and subsequent courage to confront and defeat it rather than a calculated geopolitical move designed to help certain factions and countries
I remember a film some years ago, title Rat Race, with Monty python actors. In a race you can have different strategies. You can hurry up. But you can also disturb your contestants.
So, I wonder with this blueprint for documents, how many docs in that style may now come up in the internet, confusing all spy agencies. Like a Denial of service attack.
Will see what will come.
The bit about the printer identifiers being in faint yellow is interesting in light of the distinct yellow cast of the images. Could it be that a strong yellow light or filter was used to mask the identifiers in the image?
Leo G says
“ … voiced surprise that this has not happened sooner given the unrest among some in the rank and file of the intelligence community about the U.S. policy in Ukraine …”
So what’s the likelihood that the leak was by the Pentagon, for the purpose of marginalising the intelligence community’s dissenting voices?
All Ukraine depends and relies upon US(and western) intel, money, weapons supllies, satellites, propaganda support, mercenaries, etc.
Do really someone believe the fairy tales that:
1) ukrainians could keep and hide secrets to their handlers, masters and cookers?
2) the US (and western) Agencies could be so inepts and dumbs to be fooled so easily under their own noses by their proxies on the leash and don’t even able to know the state of casualties, ammo and so on ?
3) Media Main Stream would publish (and with so much coverage) anything of that kind without a prior consent and/or direct input ?
Docs are “true”; are not russians; are useless for russians; are useless against russians.
So: are simply “leaked” as part of the ongoing war propaganda campaign.
In the end then, the real question, is:
those “easy-leaks” are aimed, primarily, at who of the internal:
a) public ?
b) politicians ?
c) generals ?
d) proxy ?
If a) or d)
the reason may easily be preparing a narrative of justifications for a fall of Bakhmut or a disastrous or inexistent counter-offensive
if b) or c)
the reason may goes to an hawckish sidepressing, pretty hard indeed, for more weapons (planes?) and even direct feet on the ground, or for tightening and silencing internal, unspoken, dissents in the military.
Wong Hoong Hooi says
1. The “leaked” docs contain no useful info (no “actionable” intel) for the Russians. No useful intel on UAF dispositions and operational plans.
2. The detailed info on Russian units and combat capability assessments are to convince the Russians that these docs are genuine.
3. The bait in these docs is in the “confirmation” of widely circulated opinions about the “depleted” state of the UAF, logistically and otherwise.
1+2+3 = a secondary disinformation effort. “Secondary” = no heavy reliance is being placed on this disinformation effort. If the Russians buy it, fine. If not, then nothing of value had been sacrificed.
Think of it – if the US had the intel means to build a detailed sitrep of Russian forces and dispositions, down to unit combat capability assessments, why shouldn’t the US have the same intel means for a detailed picture of UAF forces and dispositions ? The conclusion has to be that the intel on UAF forces and dispositions were deliberately witheld.
What would be the point of this disinformation ? Operational surprise. Expect therefore that when the UAF counter offensive is launched, the UAF BDEs would be at or near full strength, fully trained and supported with abundant fire support, at least for the first 3 weeks. Once the UAF pushes the Russians far back enough for US psyops to paint a picture to the Russian population of Putin’s “incompetence” for “allowing” a “second” Russian “debacle”, then the US objective of the counter offensive will have been achieved. Never mind if the counter offensive ultimately gets crushed with a huge loss of lives on both sides. That is the USA for you.
Kurt Cress says
Have you heard of Joseph Collins Jr., community leader & CEO pledging to try for President in 2024? He is considerably different than every other contender available nowadays, representing a grassroots movement that speaks to my heart. I’m not typically one who gets excited about politics, but I’ve done some research into Joseph past and dreams and it’s hard not to follow this dude. We have chosen that he is the best man for our country at the perfect time – so much so that I’ve truly decided to give some money to help assist his campaign! Come join me and my friends on an fantastic campaign about why choosing Joseph Collins, Jr. will probably be ideal for America! josephcollinsjrforpresident.com