If Europe is laboring under the mistaken belief that they can trust Joe Biden and his clown car of advisors to act in their best interest, think again. The sabotage of the Nordstream natural gas pipeline will directly benefit the United States, more so than any other country, and leave Europe literally in the cold.
Secretary of State Blinken tried to put lipstick on this pig:
With winter approaching, Blinken said that the US wants the bloc to use less fuel.
Washington has for years been trying to convince EU leaders to swap Russian gas for its LNG. . . .
Speaking to reporters in Washington, Blinken boasted that the US is now “the leading supplier of [liquefied natural gas] to Europe.” In addition to shipping its own fuel to Europe, Blinken said that the US is working with European leaders to find ways to “decrease demand” and “speed up the transition to renewables.”
“It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from [Russian President] Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs,” Blinken declared.
https://www.rt.com/news/563861-blinken-nord-stream-opportunity/?ysclid=l8s1m5ie1i478271330
Not so fast Tony. There are not billions of cubic feet of natural gas languishing looking for eager buyers. The LNG exporters sell contract at least one or more years in advance. If you are Chinese or German plant that operates on natural gas, you contract with the U.S. supplier at least one year in advance to buy gas at a set price. Those European companies will receive gas this winter based on contracts signed last year, for example. That is not the problem.
The U.S. LNG exporters are the biggest in the world and there are six currently operating (the Freeport facility, which experienced an explosion in June, is not expected to be back on line until December). Guess what? Most of the Freeport export of LNG was destined for Germany. There is no magic wand to make that gas available to the Green Gods in Berlin.
The following map is a handy reference for identifying the ports that are set up to export LNG.
Almost all of the current production is under contract for the next two or three years and most of that is headed to Asia. Where is Germany going to buy the LNG it needs to keep its manufacturing plants open?
They cannot just put in a last minute order to the U.S. LNG exporters. The current supply is already spoken for. The U.S. exporters do not have the luxury of breaching contracts just to get a better price. If they stiff China, for example, there would be one hell of a lawsuit. However, if the Chinese buyer decides to sell what he has purchased to Germany (and make a hefty profit in the process) he could do that.
The Germans and the United Kingdom folks are getting double whammy because of the strong price of the dollar relative to the Euro and the British Pound Sterling. The foreigners have to buy dollars to make the U.S. dollar payments. The U.S. exporters will not accept foreign currency as payment. Go try to buy a Starbucks coffee in Corpus Christi with a Euro. That ain’t happening.
The strong dollar adds to the inflationary spiral that is spinning across the U.K and Europe. The economic deterioration in Europe and the U.K. will only worsen in the coming months.
The tremendous opportunity applies for US producers who have not already entered into contracts to supply LNG to U.S. LNG exporters. Those companies stand to make out like bandits robbing Fort Knox. They have product that is not already spoken for and will be able to get full market price. If you own stocks in any of those companies you are likely to have a very happy time when the 3rd quarter profit/loss reports are announced.
So, what does this mean for the ability of the United States and NATO to sustain the war in Ukraine and defeat Russia. It is worth recalling James Carville’s wry anlysis during Bill Clinton’s first Presidential campaign–it is the economy stupid. The domestic unrest in Europe is going to increase, not diminish. Will the NATO countries still be enthusiastic about sending billions of dollars to Ukraine while their people face soaring utility bills and higher prices for food, along with unheated homes and companies going bankrupt? The answer is simple–no. Ukraine’s “victories” in Izyum and Liman are no salve for ruptured economies.
Russia’s economic position remains strong. It has plenty of customers for its oil and gas. And it remains the big kid on the block with enriched uranium needed to fuel nuclear power plants:
Russia mines approximately 6% of the raw uranium produced annually, according to the report. That’s an amount that can be replaced if other countries that mine uranium increase their uranium mining.
However, uranium does not go directly from a mine into a nuclear reactor. It has to go through conversion and enrichment before it can be used as fuel in a nuclear reactor.
Here, Russia is a dominant player. Russia owned 40% of the total uranium conversion infrastructure in the world in 2020, and 46% of the total uranium enrichment capacity in the world in 2018, according to the report. (This was the most up-to-date data publicly available, according to the report authors.)
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/russia-dominates-global-nuclear-reactor-and-fuel-supply-chains.html
This is just a reminder that wars are not won only on the battlefield. Economic factors matter as well and on this point Russia controls trump cards.
Looks to me like Winkin Blinkin is overly giddy at the loss of the Nord Stream Pipelines! Reminds me of a killer returning to the scene of the crime!
Can we roundup Nulander, Blinkin, the Kagans, Heartless Cheyne and all subhuman neocons, to send them to a beautiful tropical island with all the comforts of life, toys and drugs money can buy on one condition, they can never leave. It will be named Hotel Neocon.
Rewarding this behavior is the exact opposite of what needs to be done. Rather than placing them in luxury they should be skinned alive on national television along with their sponsors in intelligence, finance and industry and collaborators in media as an example of what happens to those who wage war and sell out their own for profit.
Black Cloud: I wish!
a Marte!
No just send them to their due reward
Bravo!
Seems there people who see America’s reigning for what they are
Feel sorry for America what it is doing to itself.
America the beautiful, where are you???????
Ant Hiney. No. He drops the aitch … because he’s Cockney Broccoli? Wrong twice. Ok. Ant ‘ony. He drops the h because h is Planck’s constant and he hates uncertainty? Wise guy, huh? Ok ok. He spells his shame that way because:
🥚Mark Antony had no h as in Anthony, and he was a legendarily notorious uprooter of world order and huge killer of colossus proportions for which way the wind blew. And he wants that understood.
🥚🥚Ant is Anti for Antichrist and he wants Ant Oney to signify the one and only true authorized Antichrist.
👕 Ant ‘oney is suggestive of Ant-honey or a barbaric, savage, neolithic form of luring hordes of devouring insects toward a helpless victim, stripped naked and lashed to stakes impaled in the earth under a blazing sun.
⌛️🎶💙 Sorry we don’t know.
But we do know that Blin as in Blinken is coincidentally a mild Russian curse word, sort of meaning darn it.
Please excuse our oversight. This was rushed to press. We omitted from our four choices this more encouraging and frankly realistic option.
🚴🏿🚇🆘🙅🏼☎️
Hell is real, so is reincarnation, so are steam baths, mercury fillings, and we … all go together when we go. Every Hottentot and every Eskimo,
Special bonus question. Who said these words and in which famous movie?
Mein, mein, mein Führer! I can va va Valk! Mein Führer, I can ..
https://youtu.be/zZct-itCwPE
Not only the volume of LNG needed by the Euros and Brits, but the bottleneck will be the receiving LNG terminals, processors, etc. The bureaucracy and permitting are a world class fluster cluck, taking several years to build the requisite infrastructure. More Turks and Poles will be needed to perform the labor as well.
Another thought-provinking article, Mr. Johnson. Thank you.
Not to mention shipping itself. Those LNG tankers are already booked for the next years. And it also takes years to build new ones and a lot of capital. Capital that is vanishing in the air with the crisis and very shy of being inverted in a sector that is thoroughly demonized in the west. What is the point of investing in oil and gas in the west if you don’t know if the governments are hell-bent on getting rid of oil and gas?
Good points. Looking into this a bit it seems that the LNG infrastructure (e.g. tankers) isn’t in place and, yes, will take years to develop sufficiently to supply Europe.
Gas futures prices, which are not rising, indicate that, as Larry says, available gas is already contracted. So there will not be supply available to be bid up this year or the next (though the Chinese could still enjoy a small volume of arbitrage).
Germany has enough gas in storage to get through half of a rough cold winter and maybe into Spring given a mild winter. After that, they’re out.
I don’t know what Blinken is talking about. The “opportunity” would not be released for a couple or three years. What is Germany and the rest of Europe supposed to do in the meanwhile?
The only possibility would be if there is announcement that the US has been sitting on a large reserve. Though that doesn’t immediately help Germany b/c getting the gas to Germany requires special shipping that doesn’t exist. However, if China announced that it has an alternative to US gas, then gas and shipping currently dedicated to China could be diverted to Germany.
The other possibility is that Blinken is talking out his ass, is willing to sacrifice Germany and Europe for a few yers and hope that in being beaten down and having nothing, they will be happy to join the new global socialist paradise envisioned by the WEF. This is horrendous and hard to believe it’s real b/c it’s like something that a super villain in a James Bond movie would plot……but, the evidence seems to point to it at this time.
It would be a shame if something happens to that German gas storage… sorry, an opportunity I meant… 😀
Guess why Ant honey bullwinken doesn’t like Sure money? Makes no sense right? Shermoney >> Germoney >> Germany.
Now you already guessed. But vee are polite peepulls. Vee don’t slugfest such things. Vee iz not use Auntie’s Emetic medicine for vomiting. Vee dewit nachurlee. Just looking at the snarling lip on the monster does wonders for my digestion.
Ant Honey. Yes mommy. Did you poison Cleopatra yet? And I can’t find the remote. Coming mother.
Coming. Just letting off some gas mommy dearest. Say hello to Bubba Bill and Jeffy-pooh, er, I mean Bubbles. Don’t forget Jerkoffawitz.
one ship carries 6 hours worth of gas demand, from some where I read this.. a smart operator might hire LNG tankers and just have them sit in the Atlantic until a desired price is reached.
This serves two purposes,
1) removes ships from the pool of ships available with the benefit of rising the market price.
2) gets highest market price and can swoop in when price achieved.
Russia also built a LNG plant and is shipping lng to “china” and its winding up back in Europe. Russia might build more LNG plants to supply the Asian market as there is a market shortage.
The volume of LNG coming through a pipeline is much greater than an LNG carrier already contracted out for. Additionally Germany does not have the terminals needed for those extra tankers. In short Europe and specifically Germany are screwed
“Monkey werx” whose website tracks movement of US military craft through the skies says attack on the pipeline was carried out by US Navy P-8 reconnaissance planes equipped with anti-submarine torpodoes.
I’ve read reports Germans are cutting down all the trees in preparation for a cold winter. Green trees don’t burn to well. It takes about a year to dry them out to get a good burn. I don’t think the green things working out to well. I say we all gather up the elites, oligarchs, gubmint dips#%ts and have a good ole toasty bonfire using them as ⛽️
I’m afraid the stench would be unbearable.
Nobody is cutting down trees excessively here. But firewood is scarce and expensive. Greetings from Germany.
I am from Germany as well. I can tell that firewood is being stolen all the time if opportunities arise. If you walk in the forests you can spot wood collectors. Yesterday I saw a man pulling a large stump of wood with his bicycle trailer. I’m sure he “found” it in the forest.
Germany is dying right now. You just have to look at the development of the economy.
Then I guess its not equally bad in different regions.
I’m sorry that Germany had to be wrecked by these NeoStraussians. The average American has little understanding of what has been done to our allies. The average American is drowning in debt and many will lose their homes as our economy continues to crash under a mountain of debt created from nothing.
Please keep us informed of events in Germany, our media won’t bother.
The middle class in industry is being destroyed right now because companies cannot afford the high energy prices. A traditional bakery, family-owned since 1795, reports that the monthly payments have been increased from 2500€ to 12500€ by the energy supplier. He would have to sell a loaf of bread for 12€, a piece of cake for 8€. The German population is poor because they pay the highest taxes in the world. And they should be increased further. Gas consumption has already fallen by 20% in industry. The whippersnappers cheer how effective the savings are. But it’s because many companies are already broke. The (red-)GREEN government thinks they can manage with renewable energy in the next few years. This narrative has long been disproved!
Heat sheds are being set up in the big cities. I’m sure in winter soup kitchens for the poor and needy will be added, just like after WW1 and WW2. As a projection from this development it results that there will be millions of unemployed in Germany in a short time; millions of completely impoverished people, sacrificed on the altar of the Straussians.
Thanks for that report.
I was stunned by the US officials comments on “this opportunity”. Additionally; US is shamelessly offering incentives fir industries to relocate to the US, Tesla factory, near Berlin, is moving to the US. Chinese also mention that German companies are looking to move seeking dependable electricity supply. This is outrageous.
There is some gossip that Russia said it will repair pipelines, although Im not sure how that would work. In the same time no EU can do it because of the sanctions. Only 2 years ago, US threatened sanctions on anyone involved with NS2. I doubt that anyone has any doubts who is responsible for “leaks” although I have a feeling Poland was also same how involved.
I watched a video last night about the construction of Nordstream 2. Sections of the pipeline were constructed simultaneously. The ends were pulled up and spliced together on a ship before being dropped back. The inside of the pipes was coated with an epoxy to make the gas flow with less resistance, so I would think the coating would at least in the short run provided protection against salt water.
Normally in those type of pipelines I believe they put in ‘blocking valves’ to isolate damage for repair. Assuming they were included they should have activated.
Yes, salt water is not the problem people said. They are built with stainless steel and coated with epoxy.
During construction, they are filled with sea water for pressure testing, for god’s sake.
Larry has graciously allowed me to repost his articles on my substack site. I am a big fan. So, my first repost today — of THIS article!
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/anthony-blinkens-tremendous-opportunity Just a reminder. As Larry says “wars are not won only on the battlefield”. One might say that LITTLE wars are won the battlefield, BIG ones, such as the Bloc Wars, usually called “world wars” are won as much economically as any other way. Hence, the German U-boat war on British commerce. The US did well against Japan because it had a bigger industrial base and resources. The USSR defeated Germany for the same reason.
I’m a Expat living in Austria for over 20 yrs. I can’t believe what the pissed away. Beautiful country, good healthcare, very clean and they were neutral, not in NATO but enjoyed its protection without having to pay.
It hasn’t hit them yet. They look at me like a freak when I say we are in a lot of trouble.
Yes, flames are coming to their paradise.
https://memesfeel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Everything-Is-Fine-Meme-5.jpg
As if the Covid totalitarianism wasn’t enough of a clue…
Sorry, mate, you’re not an “expat”, you’re an immigrant like everyone else.
This needed to be said exactly as you said it, Larry.
What are the chances that there are US gas companies sitting on some tapped, yet not yet revealed, natural gas reserves? That would be an October surprise and a “game changer”.
Doubtful that is the case. I will have to take a look at the options market to see what it might hint at as to insiders are up to in that regard, if anything.
lol unused energy sources… thats comical neuhill… peak oil baby… yall keep staring at this while that eliminates the poor, destroys the middle class, and confirms to the rest of you you weren’t upper class.
There is a bit of a problem in the US regarding new resources. New lease sales are not happening on a regular basis, some existing drilling permits are being yanked, and because of green pressure many lenders are shying away from financing new drilling. The thing about shale fracking is that the production curve drops off rapidly after the initial “gusher” which is why so many new wells need to be drilled to keep production rates high. Basically under the new green policies of the current administration, producing enough Natural gas to fill existing contracts can become a big problem.
Implied volatility on EWG German Index ETF is 40.0, and the delta (conditional probability) on Jan 2023 16 strike puts is 6. In other words, there is 94% chance that the index will remain above 16 based on the capital committed by major players.
If you disagree with the consensus view, there are some attractive trades.
The EWG Jan 13-14 put vertical was selling for 0.06 on Friday, max loss = $6.00 per spread, max profit = $94- with the index at 13 or below. It is probably trading for less now.
One major risk not mentioned by alt media is the risk to the German banking system from defaults in the industrial sector.
For more information see http://www.spreadhunter.com
Press reports coming out of Germany suggest that there are sufficient gas supplies and gas stocks to take Germany through to March, depending on the severity or not of the winter.
Consumers are also being asked to reduce consumption by 15%.
The German government/EU is also looking at ways of softening the effect of high prices on consumers. A number of proposals are on the table.
I can imagine it would be a simple matter for the government to establish a central buying agency to buy all gas at market prices and on sell it at local prices.
The financial cost difference would be met from government budget finances. A few conservative financial types will squeal for a while. It shouldn’t be a problem for the government fisc given Germany has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios.
The more problematic factor might be the status of the French nuclear electrical power industry which has only 75% capacity available.
i beg your pardon but communism is a fiscal problem and always has been. Debasing their currency to centrally manage their decline is not a solution, its a disaster in the making.
Are you kidding?
Why don’t you cut your energy use 15% then come back and tell us how swell it was.
I won’t be without problems.
But will it bring the Germans to the barricades?
Henry,
wait until they get their utility bills. The 15% cut is good advice on saving money, not gas. Germans will now go broke. People already protesting against the government policies. That is just the beginning.
Like I said, once they get their utility bills in 2023 for this year’s consumption, they either hang themselves or they hang the ones responsible for that. Make your pick!
Top Gum,
From what I read the Germany government is examining ways to ease the financial burden on consumers.
How that will look I don’t think is finalized yet.
LOL.
direct hit. Sunk.
Henry Rech is almost there, Larry. He now needs only do a little addition and subtraction, viz. subtract an ‘h’ there, then add a ‘w’ and a ‘k’ here and, presto, he’s got it!
@Henry Rech, the German government cannot print energy, they can only print money that can chase after the limited supply of available energy. Since more helicopter money, rather than common sense measures like rethinking stupid sanctions, is all Western politicians seem to be willing to countenance, get ready for Weimar 2.0. In fact, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are teetering on the brink, so Europe might jump straight to Kreditanstalt 2.0.
Europe, particularly the EU has been the land of make-believe long enough for it to be reversible.
As for the US, it has gone gangsta … it doesn’t have allies, it has patsies who are easily plundered.
Perhaps it will help people to learn what “energy blindness” is… I see so many people who have this delusional belief that somehow energy issues can be solved by governments without them actually having a way to acquire energy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVjhb8Nu1Sk
The german storage of gas will last for two month with no further delivering. So some glas- and steel-producers are offline, maybe 3 month. After christhmas winter becomes cold. Terminate uprising for 29th oft january.
Herr Rech, will be the comeback of the famous German war economy really enough to satisfy the needs of people of Germany and their industry? Arent we a little like Dr. Goebbels here?
BTW. And what about the price of the gas from new sources, like China? Price is nothing in terms of home bills and industry competition nowadays? Of course some homes and plant can switch from gas to electricity thus sparing gas, however, in such a case hello and enjoy massive blackouts in Germany and its satellites.
Oh yeah. The German War Economy. It has worked so well since 1914 and was therefore continued after the 1st WW. (Irony).
According to the reports of Ludwig Erhard (the German Economics Minister from 1949 – 64 par excellence), Walter Eucken (ordoliberalism) recognized in the 1930s that the economic system in Germany was in ruins. But how do you explain to an ideological Nazi government that a strong economy needs freedom and massive state interference is counterproductive? The idea came up that only deep, liberal economic reforms could ensure the need for certain victory in acts of war. Daring justification, as will be shown later. But: as we all know: only a strong economy can finance a war that would otherwise be lost. But even then there was a Robert Habeck moment in the Ministry of Economic Affairs. This proposal was not only rejected, but the author (Walter Eucken, senior civil servant and professor of economics, his main thesis was: a strong economy needs freedom) was sent to prison (house arrest?). After the war, the French interned him. Reason: his thesis and work would have promoted the German war economy (see above regarding the daring claim). Another proof of how you can make politics with the most stupid claims. In this context, I wonder whether such decision-makers are permanently on drugs, because without drugs they would otherwise fail within 5 minutes with their innate abilities and incompetence.
I recall on the 1960s TV show, Gilligan’s island, they supplied their power usage with a bicycle generator.
As realistic a solution for maintaining a modern economy as presuming that German gas storage is sufficient.
Herr Rech seems poorly informed about how pricing in European energy markets ensures economically crippling energy prices – funny mis-information for a “native.”
Germany has created a law that forces them to buy any available gas at any price to fill their reserves. Why do you think they got them filled? This law also says that end consumers have to pay the price. So most people will now go broke on their utility bills. That was some genius thinking of the German government. Pay whatever it takes and bill everyone else accordingly.
Germany is done. It will never recover from that wealth transfer. USA make sure of it by destroying NS1 and NS2. US “advisers” probably also told them to make up that bill in the first place.
How long is that low debt to GDP ratio going to last after most of their industry disappears, either because the price of energy has gone through the roof or the amount of energy needed can’t be supplied at any price?
Here in Australia …. Talking to someone who is totally into the kool-aid of the NYT, WaPo, CNN, Bloomberg, etc … he says that Europe will survive this year easily and by next year Europe will not need Russian energy. Personally, never having lived in a cold country like Europe I don’t know if they can get through the winter with a 15% reduction in use of gas. What about industry? For them, reducing use equals shut-down. My ‘friend’ here is convinced Russia will lose, and no facts/evidence I provide to the contrary gets through to him. Personally, the only thing I know is that we are living in interesting times.
I know what you mean. I have a relative that insists nuke threats from Putin are meaningless because USN Aegis cruisers have the capacity to swat Russian ICBMs out of the sky mid-ocean. There’s no talking sense to a lunatic.
Germany always had high taxes on energy, at least for consumers and small businesses, this way the incentives were high to use energy very efficiently. The good news is that the government can dampen the price hikes by cutting taxes on energy. The bad news is that there is little room to save further energy, because energy has been used very efficiently already. Since we have a shortage of energy and not a shortage of money, price policy won’t do much.
As Putin said; you can’t burn euros to warm yourself if there is no energy.
Henry,
“The financial cost difference would be met from government budget finances. A few conservative financial types will squeal for a while. It shouldn’t be a problem for the government fisc given Germany has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios.”
When Venezuela nationalized their oil industry, we called them communists and slapped sanctions on them. Is that where Germany is headed? 😉
Oddo,
Why are you asking me?
One problem with the EU/UK governments subsidizing energy costs for their people is they would be doing this in the face of 10% inflation, depreciating currencies, and rising EU/UK interest rates for new debt. Any energy they will buy will be priced in dollars. The subsidies will only accelerate the inflation/currency trends, and they will find themselves in economic quicksand. The more they subsidize, the higher the cost of energy will go.
Henry,
Before you spread B.S. information from the “ideological” press here some figures for you to understand the magnitude of the problem (although there is no hope in that direction):
Germany 2021:
natural gas (NG) consumed : 96 bn m3
NG provided by Russia : 50 bn m3
Max storage NG : 23 bnm3
All buildings (residential, commercial, etc) consumption: 42 bn m3
The buildings consumption is almost 100% in winter.
15% reduction for buildings represent 6,3 bn m3
Supposing all 23 bn storage are 100% full (which is not the case), and the reduction will be 15%, this storage represents 64% of all buildings consumption. So giving all storage capacity for buildings can hold 64% of winter period (if not a harder winter than 2021, which was not) meaning end of January. Even in this conditions, the day to day supply will not be enough for industry, transport, power plants, etc.
The “press” claim end of march is pure B.S.
Germany if really has no Russia gas, would have a shortage of 50 bn m3, meaning more than 50% of all USA LNG actual export capacity (for all countries). They are really in trouble. Not forget rest of Europe is also in shortage so neither country will be glad to share the insufficient pie. They will have to beg to all doors and increase to a maximum the oil and coal to pass this winter.
The very elaborated sabotage of the two Nord Stream put Germany in a dangerous position. Technically, this action could be done with skilled engineers guiding armed forces. Queen Mary II, if sinking on the pipes, could do no harm to those pipes. More, the choice of pipes ruptures was strategic to do maximum damage and difficult repair. Impossible to do such an action in few minutes and nobody to see you. By “hazard” the electrical power cable connecting Sweden with the continent and passing near of the explosions was cut off power in the day of explosions.
I’ve said it elsewhere but I’ll say it here, europe, and germany in particular are the most cucked I’ve ever seen. Russia is literally banging their nazi girlfriend while China is burning their furniture. I would like to point out though, since there is complete silence and lack of finger pointing, china is a very obvious benefactor not just the US… China no longer has european competition for russian natgas. Complete silence on china lately, makes me highly suspicious. I am positive russia looks at china with suspicious eyes, but for now they will most certainly play nice to break the western hegemon.
I think there is a reason why Ukraine escalated shortly after Germany got a new government. Angela Merkel was a very capable leader. She understood both the Russian and the American interests and was able to improve Germanys position without pissing off either one of them. She also had a firm Hand on the EU. With Merkel gone and the inexperienced Scholz in Office, Uncle Sam used the opportunity to tell Kiev to piss off Russia by attacking Donbas.
Scholz understands the current situation but does not have the balls to act boldly, instead he tries to compromise with his coalition partners, especially the hawkish greens, and his NATO and EU partners. He never wanted to send weapons to Ukraine or throw russia out of SWIFT, but he folded under the pressure.
However Scholz is a quiet introvertive character. The fact that we do not hear much from him does not mean that in quiet he is working hard to make a peace deal. Some people assume that destroying NS1 and 2 was done because Scholz was making progress in making a deal with the Russians. The fact that the Russians now said the pipeline could repaired is seen as a hind that they still want to make this deal.
Yes, I live in Switzerland. Also all gone totally crazy. The residents are also asked to save at least 15% energy. They also say quite clearly that we must expect power cuts to blackout in the winter. If gas becomes scarce, the government will declare a state of emergency. Anyone who heats their home above 19 degrees will face up to 3 years in prison or massive fines. This is comparable to the penalty for manslaughter. The government has already said that they expect neighbors to squeal on each other and the police will come with thermometers to check.
In addition, the government governs under emergency law in matters of electricity. Objections against solar plants, wind turbines are no longer possible. It is planned to install masses of solar in the mountains, because there is often sun in winter. Landscape protection was completely thrown overboard. The mountains will look horrible, full of solar plants. Tourism will be happy about that! Likewise one plans now masses of new windmills, as if that will save the power requirement.
Compared to Germany, we still have the good fortune that we have 2 nuclear power plants, as well as many hydroelectric plants through our mountains. We can cover about 90% of the electricity demand ourselves. The rest comes from France (where many nuclear power plants have just been shut down), as well as from Germany. Gas we get mainly from Germany. There will be a clear shortage.
I’m not even talking about the massively deteriorating economic situation. At the moment, our Credit Suisse is in the headlines all over the world and will certainly have to be rescued sooner or later. Our main trading partner is Germany. Everyone knows what the situation is like there. Yes, things are likely to get very bad from next year. Nevertheless, a good 80% of the population is completely Russophobic. The press is analogous to the other western countries, i.e. absolutely unreadable. No, it really scares me what’s coming.
At this my big thanks to Larry for his always excellent articles. Greetings from Switzerland!
Thank you. I’m sorry you have to be a witness to this madness. I appreciate your contribution here.
Larry,
Just a suggestion, but your [global] readers might find additional value should you explicitly solicit economic and political commentary from selected readers, in the context of specific article topics. That is, solicit the equivalent of “SITREPS” from [selected] readers “on the ground” within specific article topics. Of course, as the website owner/operator, you could put appropriate “controls” of any solicitation and response.
An excellent example of such a “SITREP” is provided above by “Chris” at 23:49 on 2 October.
Personally, I find such information adds to the value as it tends to complement your commentary.
Best regards,
– Harry
Don’t know if you’re from the French speaking part of Switzerland but Jacques Baud, in a recent interview on the Grayzone , said the Francophone media in Belgium, France and Switzerland have gone bananas, even worse than the US in terms of pro-Ukraine bias. This is a bit of a mystery to me, assuming you are from the French speaking part, any ideas why?
Also, 19 C isn’t too bad is it? Though squealing neighbours and 3 years in the slammer is no fun.
19C = 66F.
Definitely not bad at all. I moved to Maine 20 years ago under duress, targeted by a protected Massachusetts criminal. My pension was raided by Carly Fiorini, I was defrauded when I bought my home up here, 3 realtors in a row have sabotaged potential sales, I was defrauded again by our government & as a result have student loans I could pay off if I’d were able to sell my house. And so on.
In my worst years, I’ve set the thermostat at 53F. 66F sounds like heaven. I’ll be happy with 60. My point is that the US government has already been raiding its citizens nonstop since 911.
I’ll be 69 in a few weeks. I’ll be closing my electric heated bedroom in a few weeks, but this time I’m saying “no” to sleeping on the floor & am adding a futon to my family room.
Not much left for them to steal from me & others like me. That’s probably why they’ve turned on Eu.
Just like you Chris I happen to live in Switzerland.
Indeed, it’s mind-blowing to see the stupidity having beset the country.
Most people do not have a clue what it means if we were to have blackouts. The grid in Switzerland is one of the oldest in the world and to get it alive and kicking again after a blackout will prove futile in many areas. Once gone, forever gone so to speak.
That craze about alpine solar will falter as swiftly as it has come about. The construction of the powerlines to get the electricity to where it’s needed are not foreseen in any of the grandiose schemes being thrown around by the Socialists and Greens.
As most of them and their voters are living in the urbanised parts of the country, they will be hammered to their senses rather brutally in case of energy shortages and blackouts as they have no means to heat their dwellings other than what is in place today. All of the current heating systems depend on constant supply of electricity to keep the heated water flowing through the radiators or floor heating pipes, even the fuel powered ones.
Sounds like a Swiss exodus is cooking up / in the making? Not sure if Russia may be a popular destination…
@Chris …
Sorry to hear about all this. I just read up on the Credit Suisse situation after you mentioned it in your comment. This is especially sad, because Switzerland is the country that we Americans always thought ‘ran like clockwork.’
It’s especially noxious that officials would encourage neighbors to squeal on each other. This was a problem in the US, even in red states, under ‘Covid restrictions.’ We had neighborhood snitches calling the cops on bar and gym owners who tried to stay open surreptitiously – and sometimes even on neighbors’ parties.
There are ways of dealing with these sociopaths.
I have never been to Switzerland and I know your culture is unique, even within Europe, so I’m not sure how practicable my suggestions are. I’ll share them, regardless, in hopes they’ll prove useful:
[1] Canvas your neighbors regarding their feelings about the impending cold winter, energy shortages, and squealing on their neighbors. Hold a neighborhood meeting, if that’s feasible. But don’t call it ‘squealing,’ frame it in neutral or positive language like ‘neighborhood watch’ or ‘communal self-discipline.’ Use casual free-form discussion to identify who’s OK with squealing and who’s not. Opponents should band together and quietly ostracize the potential squealers. Don’t let them anywhere near your dwelling.
(Potential pitfall: This may work better in America, where our vaunted individualism often veers off into an ‘every man for himself’ mindset. Swiss may be more ‘socially responsible.’)
[2] In revolutionary conditions in the developing world, the resistance often thwarts state enforcement by subverting the security forces. (I speak from personal experience of Afghanistan starting in the 1980s.)
In America, this means identifying local policemen / sheriffs deputies who are sympathetic, or whose sympathy can be won. Buy ’em a beer or a cup of coffee off-duty, chat them up, make the case that turning neighbor against neighbor is far more socially irresponsible than keeping one’s house a tad warmer than the Regime dictates. Point out that ‘squealer’ calls make extra work for the police, who ought to be chasing REAL criminals. Squealers also turn people against law enforcement.
Seek concessions: If they can’t simply ignore the squealer calls, can they at least tip you off a half-hour before they show up with thermometers? Leave ’em your phone number.
(Potential pitfall: If you approach the wrong cop, you might get ‘watch-listed’ and they’ll show up at your house without warning, with thermometers, several times a week, even if nobody squeals on you.)
These techniques are kind of labor intensive, but I’ve known them to work. Best of luck!
Larry, bit of a typo in “…the ability of the United States and NATO to sustain the war in Ukraine and defeat NATO…”
Presumably meant to be “and defeat RUSSIA“?
Thanks. Corrected.
Reckon you got it right first time. Sustaining the war will defeat NATO – in worse fashion than not sustaining the war.
If you search “Clinton Uranium One Scandal” you will find out that it wasn’t a scandal, it never happened, and if it did happen, it was all perfectly legal and totally normal stuff. And did I mention that it was definitely not a scandal and all of that CFIUS stuff was totally fack-checked and debunked? So just forget about it.
/ sarc
German Feds have announced a 200 billion (!) emergency relief plan for consumers and industry to offset higher Natural Gas costs. The details are being worked out in committee over next 2 weeks.
Very roughly the overarching goal is to subsidy reduction in consumption. For example – Customers who reduce their consumption by 20% would pay ‘only’ 15 cents/kwh versus current price of 35 cents/kwh.
To put in perspective – retail price 2 years ago was in the 5-6 cent range.
200 billion tax money to result in ONLY a tripling of prices. It’s beyond silly.
A German buddy who owns some rental property outside Munich tells me his tenants heating bills will increase from around 15% to 45% of their rent. These aren’t trivial impacts.
In translation, long term, whatever industry is left in Germany will produce profits it will pay taxes on and these taxes are all going to be used to subsidize people’s heating/energy bills? Sounds thoroughly thought out…
I think we should re-institute “Tar and Feathers” and then “ride these SOBs out of office on a rail”.
On the subject of “ain’t good news”.
There was a whisper of a possible Black Skies ongoing.
Just an indication but with good form.
I think the key to understandig Blinken’s gloating lies in the words “decrease demand”. How do you decrease demand substantially in an advanced country like Germany?. Simple. Relocate all the energy guzzling industry to USA. Not to Turkey no no no. The Germans already hate their domestic Turks. Can’t relocate to Iran or Saudi Arabia where energy is plentiful but they don’t sell beer. No choice other than US. Also US is far more inclusive. If I were Blinken, I would find it very difficult to stop smiling.
Shoigu has plans for 5 new cities in southern Siberia I assume they’ll need some manufacturing plants to make them viable, cheap power cheap steel 10% taxes on workers income what’s not to like. If Russia makes the offer they’re choices that’ll wipe the smile from Blinken’s face.
hello mr. Johnson
i am beginning to think that the collective west main goal in this entire affair from the very beginning was to destroy the nordstream 1 and 2 piplines; thus cutting off germany and the rest of europe from any hope of independence from the usa and britian.
when you think about it they put ukraine up to putting all their best troops on the donbas borders to ensure a forced russian response. if putin would have left the people of the donbas to be massacred this would have been a political disaster. i think they also knew that the sanctions would not work since they are not idiots . they are not smart but are diabolical criminal geniuses..this was all a game to them until the perfect time to destroy nordstream 1 and 2 could happen.
As alexander mercouris pointed out merkel who was born in hamburg in 1954 and moved to east germany as an infant wanted the nordstream 2 and closer ties with russia. it is interesting that she was probably pushed out of power in november 2021 for know obvious reaons. before this affair happened and the green idiots put in her place. it is also interesting her silence on the events of the last 6 months.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel
i think they knew that eventually the russians would be forced to expand the smo and referendum these territories. they forced the russian hand in this by their offenses in september when the russian strength was at its lowest due to the 6 month contracts of russian troops expiring as per alexander mercouris.
the only way russia could have prevented this from happening was a quick victory in ukraine back in spring using the numbers of men they are committing know. as per alexander mercoulis the allies of russia china and india for their own reasons would have probably not supported.
i think they had started planning the destruction of the piplines a yr ago and this summer used the us navy to pick the best spot to hit. the perfect time for the deed was right after the referendums were over . their objective of permanently keeping europe in their clutches looks like it has for the meantime succeeded .
if i am right about this assumption i think the west will know begin to abandon the ukraine to its fate since they do not need it anymore. if the money and weapons know dry up as the ukraine is left to wither on the vine and its land taken over by russia, poland and the other countries ; think i will be proven right. the last thing the collective west will know want is the ukraine in nato where they would be forced to fight for it
i could be wrong and this is far fetched but perhaps before the deed was done; russia was notified this was going to happen and told that after this they will let russia have its way with ukraine and essentially leave them alone. time will tell on this.
if my hypothesis is right ukraine was totally played by the west just like poland was played by the west in 1939. Poland was told by the brits and france that they would be defended if germany attacked but were left to their own devices and carved up by germany and russia. the leader of poland at that time like the one in ukraine know have had god complexes in my opinion and did not understand how they are and were being used.
thus ukraine in the near future like poland in october 1939 might not exist in the near future as they are carved up by poland , russia and perhaps some other nations. the collective west since they have secured their control of europe by destroying the biggest obstacle in their way nordstream 1 and 2 will not care less.
they knew a year ago they could not win a military conflict with russia; but are happy to settle for their main objective which was the destruction of nordstream 1 and 2 while they will keep trying low key for regime change in russia the old fashioned west way using progaganda , sabotage and paid 5th columnists.
i think they will know move on to brazil, china, india and iran as next in their destabilization attempts and not necessarily in that order,
regards,
ralph
Merkel was not ousted. She was smart enough to know that one day her time as a chancellor will end. She wanted to end her career voluntarily because she did not want to get voted out of power.
Despite the destruction of NS 1&2, the only thing that prevents Europe from connecting with Russia is the blocking position of hostile neighbours like Ukraine and Poland. Once Russia bypasses Ukraine in the south that door will be open again through Hungary. Then look for Eastern European countries to start peeling away from EU/NATO.
Nordstream was not destroyed. First, one pipe of NS2 is operational. Second, all of the three broken pipes can be repaired. Repair of leaking underwater gaz pipes is done all the time. In fact, the water depth (100m) isn’t even that much of a problem for divers who specialize in this work.
Further, NS1/2 were built precisely so that RF and DE could sidestep the cordon sanitaire (UKR, PL) that USA had built. If RF militarily cleans up UKR, the cordon sanitaire ceases to exist and the overland pipelines are sufficient.
The Ukrainian pipelines are poorly maintained and quite inefficient. Better to build a new pipeline through Novorossia, or along the Black Sea.
The situation about LNG availability is known for months, if you want to understand it. But most Germans do not listen closely. What strikes them definitely is the rising costs for gas, what concerns about 20 million people.
The greens meanwhile rejoice, because they anyway wanted the whole Republic to live without gas or coal or nuclear power. It will not work. But as young teenagers, they won’t believe it.
The first problem for most Germans to arrive will be inflation. They won’t be able to pay their bills for gas, electricity and rent. Only then unrest will come up. Because no more holidays, no fancy restaurants, no big car…
The mistake we’re all making is assuming that the leaders of NATO are working for their nations’ best interests
They’re not. They simply want to destroy Russia and enrich themselves.
They don’t care about the people who will be stuck in the cold
The leaders aren’t gonna face shortages of anything.
And if it gets bad enough, they just leave.
I think those projections are delusional. 2/3 of the US production of natural gas comes from fracking, and the fracking boom is over. Those wells deplete 60% in the first year and shale oil companies have lost $300 billion so far. There’s precious little new drilling taking place and few places to drill. The Permian is big but the sweet spot is just about drilled out. The rest is uneconomical. Take a look here.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/01/1027822/fracking-boom-jobs-industry/
This would explain the dire straits the US regime finds itself in this ever-so critical position in its history. Their resources have been dwindling for decades and are now just about exhausted. It should be apparent to a even a blind, deaf and dumb person that without the resources of arch enemy, super mineral rich Russia, they will be relegated to second tier status.
Fracking tight oil and gas with its high decline rates is not a long term play. In the short term, lots of money will be made exporting LNG to Europe. In the long term, Europe will be sh!t out of luck as US gas production is reserved for domestic use …or Venezuela better look out as they are the most likely replacement for declining production from fracking.
Thank you Larry In Germany there are gas reserves for 30 years. To this day, Greens prevent these gas storage facilities from being opened up. Thanks to German energy policy over the last 20 years, the rich in particular have been able to become even richer through the “green” energy generation massively subsidized by the state. There is very little interest in drying up this source of money. Instead, the little people are pushed even further to bear the high bills and taxes. Those who take advantage of this insane policy are in politics, offices and companies in the economy/finance, which are well networked politically. It’s been running like clockwork for years. Only a minority realizes the extent of the fraud.
Only now are the first polls showing a slight shift in the political mood. The AfD, a party massively denigrated by the media, is now said to be just under 2 percentage points behind the SPD (ruling party, Chancellor Scholz, the forgetful). The CDU is 28% almost 10% points for the SPD. The Greens lost 1%. Only 1%. (18%). You see, the speed of knowledge is very low in Germany. The implementation of change is still more sluggish in Germany. Except when introducing laws to maintain and expand state power and skim money. A flight tax was introduced under Merkel a few years ago. We last had that in the Third Reich. How could a country like Germany get under the wheels? Many reasons play a role here. The most important since the 1990s: propaganda against burgeoning patriotism. Media allegations regarding National Socialist crimes in a loop. It’s your fault. The greater the time lag to the Third Reich, the louder the eternal guilt was hammered into the loyal German media consumers. This propaganda was also carried out in the schools. This also included increasing teachings on global warming (was renamed climate change a good 10 years ago), an increasing worship of tolerance with almost everything and everyone. The issues and behavior that informed citizens had to tolerate were dictated by the media and politicians. When the financial crisis hit in 2008, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) was founded. At that time, the weakening euro was the main topic for this party. A bikd was drawn, and rightly so, which massively threatens Germany’s interests in the future. That was too tiring and not encouraging for most voters. If you want to win elections in Germany you have to promise the voters free beer (pension increases and other social benefits). Believe me: to this day, the majority of voters have not understood that these so-called election gifts have to be paid for by the voters. Only a minority is aware of this.
In Germany, new parties were and are being massively attacked in the media and with secret service (very likely) means. Since 1980, the year the Greens were founded with a 25% share of old Nazis, I have seen five newly founded parties with a good chance of reaching the 5% hurdle. Two of them are left. A reference to National Socialism was always foisted on all new parties. Always. Which party had the most old Nazis in West Germany? The SPD. In East Germany? SED (Communists, who in 1948/49 even massively courted all the old Nazis in order to win them over to the good fight of socialism. The Greens were only attacked by the media in the first few years. Then they established themselves quite quickly. My suspicion: that was from the Atlanticists so wanted. In the beginning, you could easily control a large part of the left. In 1990, when new politicians appeared in the Greens, they swung more and more clearly to an Atlantic-influenced policy or Old Greens let themselves be turned around. Foreign Minister Fischer behaved like a foster son von Albright. As soon as the Greens were in power in 1998/99 we had war. In 2021/22 the Greens were back in power and again war in Europe. The politics of the Greens since 1998 have always worked against the legitimate and existentially important interests of the German people. And the Greens have always announced this, sometimes in a clandestine manner. The majority of German voters, especially in the West, do not understand this. De The only resistance to the political madness and German suicide by installments came from East Germany. And against these – from my point of view the last German patriots – the media has been hitting them for umpteen years. Even sometimes with physical violence almost to the point of manslaughter/murder.
Why aren’t the Germans, especially West Germans, fighting back? Propaganda since 1945/49 and therefore a deeply rooted belief in the goodness of the West. The knowledge of the elders who experienced the imperial period and both world wars has almost been lost with their death in the last 30 years. …
sorry, the machine translation reports a 5000 character limit.
Wow, really interesting. How ironic, it’s the East Germans who are standing up for Germany. You are not the only person to have pointed that out. In Britain, Russophobia has reached epidemic proportions. When I speak to known Russophobes/Ukraine supporters, I always say they must be really pleased their energy bills have quadrupled now they are no longer forced to buy cheap Russian energy. They look at me with blank face.
… Continuation.
Unfortunately, my English (only basic school knowledge) is not good enough to write down my somewhat more complex thoughts, my “old” knowledge in English. At least my knowledge of English is enough to order me a coffee in LA or NYC. lol
How will Germany (Europe) continue? Everything I write here is the result of many months and years of reading different articles, books and my own observations. My incomplete contribution is to be classified as subjective and makes no claim to objectivity.
There is no doubt that German politicians are currently unable and/or unwilling to represent the legitimate interests of the German people (taxpayers and voters). Their behavior, especially the green faction, gives the impression of serving other groups and ministries.
Some voters have given up (non-voters), not a few are still enthusiastic about politics and share it and the last group opposes as much as possible in a legal way.
These three groups are distributed almost equally. The non-voters make up the largest proportion and the opposing group the smallest proportion. I estimate the agreeing group at 1/3, the non-voters around 40% and the opposing group at a maximum of 25%. The bourgeois resistance is loosely organized and can rely on quite a few citizens, especially in East Germany (former GDR). The movements in Saxony are particularly striking. Earlier, in the days of the GDR, this region was also known as the valley of the unsuspecting. Reason: they were able to receive West TV and radio much less frequently. In retrospect, that wasn’t so bad. So their heads were less filled with Western propaganda. Not surprisingly, the “pro-government” media (approx. 98%) regularly reported about this state and its inhabitants with negative headlines up to massively fake stories.
In western Germany, the Atlanticists are now reaping the fruits that they have been sowing in the minds of western Germany since 1945/49. Loyalty to NATO, USA and EU is almost legendary. I therefore do not expect any serious impetus from West Germany to change Germany’s increasingly suicidal position. Even if there is an increasing rethinking among the citizens of western Germany, the percentage of citizens will be lower than in eastern Germany.
The mood in the West is sometimes inconsistent. Depending on who you talk to, the range is wide and spread across all age groups. You experience people who actively seek information and are very critical, to people who at best give themselves information and only consume it. In this group, the thought horizon is limited to one’s own personal environment. Their level of information, as I experienced it myself, did not even focus on the attack on NS1 and NS2. Yes, some people didn’t even know what Nord Stream was. I don’t want to be rude: The readers of this blog in their countries are probably also aware of this.
I have to be brief. sorry (Quotes only analogously)
What do I expect. Hard times. Personally, I’m making preparations as best I can to mitigate or survive the worst peaks of the coming energy crisis. The focus here is on my family. The second focus on my micro-enterprise, which is supposed to secure my family, our existence. Still, I have some optimism. We won’t let that take us. Ever since the Cold War, I have always upheld Martin Luther’s motto: If I knew that the world would end tomorrow, I would still plant an apple tree today. Christian values have always been cultivated in our large family (I would almost like to say a third of Europe). Family and Christian faith are the basis for people/individuals to thrive and live together in freedom and with a healthy measure of security/care. Keeping these opposites of freedom and security in a healthy balance is the great art of human existence. Benedict XVI (Joseph Ratzinger) once said: Absolute belief leads to fundamentalism. Absolute reason leads to totalitarianism.
I say: Beware of people who profess possession of the truth. Immanuel Kant said: The German has a doctor for his health, a priest for his true faith and his books for education. But he avoids the difficult and exhausting business of thinking for himself out of sheer convenience.
In short: survival in Germany/Europe again clearly depends on lucky and unlucky coincidences. A huge step back into the archaic conditions of the Stone Age threatens. I feared that back in 1980.
I worked in the field of solar energy in Germany for several years. I can tell you, that you are correct. Most of the money that was invested into renewable energy came from deep and wealthy pockets. No one from the lower class did profit from this. They all paid it thou with higher energy prices.
The company I worked for was wealthy but was driven into bankruptcy by their owners, who were too stupid to run it. I left 1,5 years before they were finished. I left because I saw how they threw the money out the window every single day.
The whole green energy hype was a scam from the very beginning. It was designed to transfer state money to private pockets, like Carl already stated.
There are 122 LNG carriers in the world delivering 1 billion m3 of gas per year. To believe that the USA will be able to replace Russian gas (150 billion m3 per year) with liquefied gas requiring 6000 ships and 1790 trips (1 month) to deliver the EU is a utopia!
Here in Europe (benelux), politicians don’t realize the real situation: it is NOT possible to go full US LNG as because the nr of ‘carriers’ available is ridiculous. It will take maybe 5 years or more. Same no real infras here, there must be build, it will takes 2 or 3 years if not more.
Peak US LNG for exports will be in 2025-2026, and then the US will mostly keep her LNG for domestic market which is logical.
EU politicians are dreamers.
Natoistan,
Check you figures for carrier numbers and LNG trade.
They are way out.
This calculation is flawed. You are mixing up the volumes of gas and liquified gas. When transported as LNG (a liquid) in a tanker the same mass of gas has a much smaller volume then it does in a pipeline when it is transported as a gas.
In any case, absent outright sabotage, a given LNG supply chain delivers far more expensive energy per unit and has many more potential failure points.
Even if Uncle Sam could be trusted to actually deliver in bad times as well as good, there is a lot more risk in being dependent upon the US and the Gulf States versus Russia.
The numbers are merely derivative of the strategy choice.
In the meantime, the pig headed government refuses to allow existing energy stores in Germany to be exploited. The Russians are not the problem … the US is a contributor to the problem, but the problem itself sits in Berlin.
I agree with you on the problem of transporting LNG from the US to EU.
Some months ago I have seen a comment on the MoA blog that also calculated the amount of LNG necessary to replace the Gas lost from Russia.
He made a calculation that came to transporting the amount of LNG needed
to 700 tankers, of the max size available today, per day. Not to mention the production/loading facilities needed by the US en onloading/converting liquid gas to usable gas.
As for the other gentlemen commenting on the calculation I would like see your calculations.
Regards
Here in Don Quixote-land we’re rolling in surplus energy! We has plenty Fairy Dust and Unicorn Farts powering our lovely Windmills.
First of all throw out the “renewable estimates” of countries. Wind projects in particular produce about 25% of what they are rated (their gov’ts use the theoretical maximum) solar 30%. So when Germans say 37% of their energy is green — it is actually 7% and it varies by the minute. Which makes grids impossible to manage without gas backup.
Prices: Gas in Europe has been a steady $25 per MWH for the last 30 years it started to increase right after Biden got in office and is now $180 MWH or 7 times the historic level. That means electricity will cost 7 times as much to generate by gas. Houses 7 times as much to heat.
Factor that into the prices of BMWs and Krupp coffee makers and this is not good.
China meanwhile is building 250 gigawatts of new coal plants. This is a lot the same amount as the total amount of electricity from all sources the UK and Germany produce combined.
If every vehicle in the US was electric the temperature if you believe their numbers (I don’t) would go down 0.01 F by 2100. Meanwhile China’s new coal plants being built will add 9 times that. So what is the point?
Then there is the US grid. Fast charging a Tesla 3 takes 350 kw. That is the same adding 250 houses to the grid. If all our 230 million vehicles were electric one can imagine easily 1 million cars fast charging at the same time. This requires 350kw x 1 million = 350 gigawatts. A nuclear power plant is 1 gw. Biden needs to build 350 of them — there are 53 of them now.
the 37% does not refer to capacity but actually produced electricity, so it is indeed 37%. The crucial point however is, that there are three major uses of energy of roughly equal size, which are electricity generation, heating and transport. In heating and transport the percentage of renewables is much lower, so overall renewable use in Germany may be around 15%.
Brad,
Amen, man! It is suspicious that the proponents and implementers of renewable policies never do the simple calculations you (and anyone) could do on a bar napkin to illustrate the magnitude of the costs and feasibility (or lack thereof) of ramp up times.
You are absolutely right about how fighting greenhouse warming is only sensible if there is cooperation between the major countries – EU, Russia, China, US, India. Alienating the big three (russia, china, india), policy for over a decade, cancels any energy policies of the other two.
Michael Hudson has nicely summarized what the outlook on Germany and the EU will be like going into the future, it looks very grim. He had also been the one to write back in late February or early March that American had put down Germany again for the third time
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/09/michael-hudson-on-the-euro-without-germany.html
Natural gaslighting.
Natural gaslighting
Good one, Tomo. Worth repeating!
If I were a German (I’m not) and ff we summarize the key recent events it should become clear what is happening:
1. US against NS2 for the past many years.
2. US provoked Russia via Ukraine and bullied all of NATO / EU to fall in line with US policy. This means sanctions against Russian energy.
3. NS1 & NS2 pipelines blown up, likely by the US. The only power who benefits from the blow up.
German diplomats who remember their history, will be aware of the real purpose of NATO: ‘To keep Russia out, US in and Germany down’.
Germans should also remember the scandal of US intel tapping the personal phone of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.
Reviewing all this, it should be clear to even the dumbest intel analyst that the US/UK are out to completely destroy Germany. Being part of NATO is not in the interests of Germany.
What follows is speculation, but not far-fetched.
Given the facts above, it would not be surprising if there were some secret back-channel talks between Germany and Russia. would be tricky to keep it secret from US intel, but still, Germany should be trying this.
I hope something like this is happening indeed.
Interesting article here from the WSJ:
China Is Rerouting U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to Europe at a Big Profit
Sluggish economy lets Chinese energy companies benefit from high global prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-rerouting-u-s-liquefied-natural-gas-to-europe-at-a-big-profit-11664772384
European are a bunch of idiots.
Here in Croatia, I’m not sure what to expect. We get our electricity from Slovenia’s nuclear power plant, and we have a brand new LNG terminal on the coast. But oil? I have yet to find out where INA (State oil entity) gets their oil. Plus, Croatia is a small fish surrounded by sharks. If things get bad in Italy and Germany, who can be sure these resources won’t be strong-armed away? I don’t see a problem starting with people freezing to start the crisis, but factories closing causing supply chains seizing up throughout Europe. This leads to skyrocketing unemployment, THEN freezing. But German backbones no longer exist, they will go quietly and orderly into the maelstrom. They have a lot of experience doing that, as we know.
Countries with sea access can not be surrounded.
Several unrestrained politicians betrayed the guilty terrorist party (destroying civilian infrastructure is an acto of terror, one would asume). The Polish thuggish former minister paid due respects to the executors. The current US minister can hardly contain his glee at the happy turn of events. The farcical mention of environmental benefit hides the true nature of their terror making, i.e., Russia’s desirable loss (not likely), US corporate-fascist material gain and quasi-monopolistic grip on Europe, end of Russian-European mutually beneficial commercial ties, for the foreseeable future (if significant European countries had not been ruled by treacherous bandits the gas pipes would have not been blown – the haughty imperial oligarchy would have not dared).
Here comes the brazen lawlessness of a putrefying empire of lies and murder and chaos – with its equally malodorous appendages.
“If those assholes are not winning the midterms , it will be the MAGA hat guys fault and they won’t accept it.”
It’s like the pipeline thing , it’s not a message. They plan to “loose” the thing and reject results… but profit from the situation “nobody” created anyway.
It’s like this whole Ukrainian thing , nobody ever provoked Russian’s “Brutal Aggression” and warned the world months prior it happens. And none is selling his outdated cold-war stockpiles nowhere … it’s known fact isn’t it ?
I’m still impress by the power of the “nobodies” nowaday. What’s the risk ? Having a nuclear nobody with no bodies left to put on the coffins 10K miles from the Potomac ? What-if it’s on the Potomac ? Hum ? Why not ? Nobody is not very good at geography these days …
See, mobster ruling : it’s kind of easy. If you still can vote, vote those out before Putin vote for you.
Thank you, Larry, for your wonderful work!
My heart goes out to the German people.
The Blinken/Nuland/Biden Criminal Gang has just told them: “Now you cannot buy natural gas from Russia, you have to buy it from us, at a high price. You’re gonna be hungry and shivering in your homes this winter. Companies like BASF might shut down or have to move overseas. And your paid-off politicians are gonna keep sending money and weapons to Ukraine to enrich oligarchs and kill Russian soldiers. And there’s nothing you can do about it.”
What a horrible position to be put in. Again, my heart goes out to the German people. My thoughts and prayers are with them going forward through the coming winter.
They could have said no to the 100 rounds of sanctions and they appointed von DER leyen.
They didn’t want a EU army.
They let US dominate in this crisis. When they had power to control eu positions.
They bought this on themselves.
No amount of fiddling around with taxes and subsidies will avert the energy crisis Europe will suffer this year. Even the remaining pipelines cannot avert disaster.
On the other hand, for the last two months Ukraine has had the initiative all along the 1,000 km front. It chooses when and where battles are fought. So far, Russia has not put up the forces needed to close out the war. It is not clear Russia has the forces needed, and it is possible that Ukraine will recover the lost oblasts before Russia can react.
The US might be about to reap a double victory: de-industrialization of German and Europe, and destruction of the Russian army.
Assuming you are right (and ignoring all of Larry’s arguments), it would be a pyrrhic radioactive victory. You have evidence Russia bluffs? We know the west does. And backs down – Afghanistan, for example?
You are mistaken on your facts, too, if you are right, it would be the destruction of the DPR and LPR armies, NOT Russian armies. MSM confuses the two and has trouble writing the words “Russian allied forces.”
Well, no, Bob. After October 4 when the (currently) four oblasts have formally and finally been embraced as parts of Russia proper, the situation will change materially. Should the rump Ukraine (read, NATO cat’s paw) continue to harrass these areas, then the SMO will end, and it will be transmuted into a full-blown war. The results for Ukraine (the would-be Khazaria) will not be felicitous. I would fully expect that the remainder of the Black Sea coast will be absorbed, and a link to Transnistria effectuated. More oblasts of eastern Ukraine may be given a chance to decide whether they will vote to join Russia, or whether they want to sink into the mire of affiliation with the bitter-enders of Galicia. Kiev? Once the rats have scurried away, they may have that choice as well.
The Global American Empire (GAE) has already made their major policy move, the severance of Western Europe, particularly Germany, from a productive, mutually-beneficial cooperation with Russia and the remainder of Eurasia, substituting in its stead the forthcoming deindustrialization of Western Europe, and the looting of its productivity, both of their industries and the most technically-competent elements of its population with the foal of the enrichment (or maybe the continued survival) of the GAE.
For Europe it’s the Morgenthau Plan writ large, deindustrialization, and aspirationally, a reduction of the populace to a state of agricultural peonage, with of course a comprador class to serve as administrators for the genuine rulers floating like a scum over top of the newly inpoverished masses.
Meanwhile, back in North America, a similar fate awaits us should the Satanists carry this off. 1984 on steroids.
Two months ago, I would have agreed with all you have written. But today, after two months of Russian passivity, I don’t.
The Russian armed forces are claiming that at least 900 AFU troops have been killed around Liman, but the Ukrainians still hold the ground there. Another Ukrainian offensive is reported today around Kershov.
There are no reports of Russian counter attacks anywhere.
It beggers the mind trying to grasp the extent of the greed and malice of the moral monsters driving all this. It is almost incomprehensible.
In my local level down the road half a mile where I live a gas pipeline was laid, it is a main trunk line crossing a gas play for about 75 miles, it is a 4ft diameter pipe, all but completed except for a river crossing which was held up due to tree humper extremists. Just an amazing undertaking the work and construction involved crossing these WV mountains. Equipment and pipe yards spanning hundreds of acres for storage and pipe preparation, holding hundreds of brand new CATIPILLER pipe laying equipment, thousands of pieces of 45ft pipe, Lord knows how many workers. Such an influx of workers whole farms renting out RV parking, every hardware store from local to Lowes sold out of quite a number of goods, like a swarm of bee’s decended on this area. So much pipe it was stored everywhere a flat piece of land which specialized 18 wheelers could access. New shale gas wells started, dont know the number, but one was begun a mike and a half from my house, the amount of equipment passed by like nothing you can imagine till you experience it, thousands of loads of gravel, diesel and lube oils, drilling chrmicals by the 10,000 gal tanker loads, it was an invasion, had no conception of the extent of effort and materiels and equipment involved. You must see it yourself to have an appreciation for it. Multiple Billions in investment for sure. The local rep who handled the relations with us locals mention 150 million to drill the main hole, then they turn the drill core horizontal once the reach the gas play in the shale, drilling horizontally out as many directions needed to get to the richest deposits in the shale. gas well alone was claimed to. It is the most crazy piece of engineering imaginable how its accomplished.
But the pipeline. 4 ft diameter pipe is one serious bit of capacity, and at tge end of this pipe it goes into a larger regional pipe.
Anyways, its probably no surprize to hear, within a few days of the obiden regime taking power it was ordered shut down.
All the remaining pipe, hundreds of miles of smaller branch diameter, thousands of pieces of every kind of contruction equipment from diesel light plants to mega sized CAT D-11T pipe bending bulldozers, its all brand new to near so, no expense spared in quality and quantity, all sitting in these yards, pipe to nuts and bolts, rusting away since January 21. Nothings moved, be close to 2 years by years end.
It really all smacks you upside the head how evil those with all this power to arbitrarily do such things as shut diwn an almost comoleted bilkions of dollars pipeline, or destroy a sovereign country’s undersea pipelines. To deny hundreds of millions the essential natural right to staying warm? The scale is literally beyond my abikity to fully wrap my head around.
Is the concept of hubris even adequite descriptive to what this is?
Only thing which has the start of whats going on is it can only be the work of a few who are mega-psychopaths. I just have this visage of this gathering of unknown conspirators washing their hands in utter glee, wallowing in bathing themselves in this kind of absolute power. Such an evil power it requires an entire very large nation state in a a confederation with dozens of smaller ones to just stand up to these inhuman monsters and their machine.
It all appears like the culmination of all the evil in all of recorded human history, all wrapped together in one tiny little group or entity, which at last has obtained the form which all previous forms of good which has fought this evil, has become moot, that something new in terms of united efforts of good men, united in ways beyond all previous record is the only possible way to defend from and vanquish these monsters. For what this thing is has taken a form that is niether fish nor fowl, not a doveriegn nation state nor a conglomorate of corporate/political interests. Its almost as if IT has seeming decided upon an entirely different approach to absolute power, beggining generations in its past, at definitive point seems to be about the 1600-1700’s, and it laid plans for a generatiins long usurpation not of a viable prosperous country but this time instead of those “peanuts” it understood it must go for broke as all previous efforts failed in some way always some kind of good stood in its way, and so IT surmised that in order to obtain the power IT desired IT would have to this time usurp an entire hemisphere of prosperous human actvity, for only then could it acquire suitable resources in man power and lucre, secretive iron fist sway over enough nation states, a suitable perch from which, enabling IT to eventually then hold “Dominion”, (get it? Dominion voting?), over everything. After all what is the ultimate definition of absolute power if its not total complete power over every human?
Maybe more than a little cheese fell off my cracker, and i’m really barking up an imaginary tree, but Lordy, does it all look like something, that what was physically required to rupture the just superior in every possible way armoured Nordstream gas pipelines, (4ft of ferro-concrete over 4inch thick wall high tensile alloy steel pipe), combined with the neccesary power it requires to bend the military resources of a great sized nation state, towards this task. The implications infer a kind of potential global scale insuing insanity of total Warr. Did Miachevelli and Hobbes have a grasp of this evil?
With every passing day even as IT is trying to destroy every vestige of Christianity, IT in fact thru IT’s deeds actually validates in spades the warnings and cautionary precepts of the roots of pure evil. In ways which harken back to the origins of hellmouth itself.
No matter the veracity of my chicken scrathes here, no matter my perceptions, it is impossible to shake the core of my sense of events, that something really really bad’s been afoot thru my lifetime, for I remember crystal clear the minute of the day JFK was killed. A sense of something truly akilter had changed our world, for this event was profound in ways entirely kept from us yet only they must exist as the man was graphically murdered for all to clearly see so as to effect our cignitive consciousness in a entirely malicious intended manner this setting the stage fir the desired course of future events and human activity, how this altered the course of our history in an entirely different very dark direction. Sure you can ignore shit, to your hearts content, but history like this ain’t goona ignore you. Eventually it gets to us all in some way guaranteed to be not nice, and thats the point of this IT this power.
Well said and horrifying. Pray, brother, pray.
It is impossible to avoid concluding that Europe’s immediate prospects are bleak. Given you have to be ideologically brainwashed not to see this, one wonders at the muted response to the American inspired, if not carried out by them, destruction of the NS pipelines. It was simply an act of war.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but even if there was LNG on the market that isn’t already under contract, it STILL would cost more that piped gas.
Either way, Europe is in for a bad economic winter.
I believe Krauts will manage it this winter through providing heavy subsidies. They will establish some energy limits for people and industries. They will thus ruin the coffers of their state, plus ruin the rest of monetary policy of the euroland in the glorious war of attrition, but who cares…
And look at Britain, it become developing country with Ms Truss crazy as Jean-Bédel Bokassa. Who knows the origins of meat she has at her refrigerator?
Mmm… European companies moving to the US?? Frying pan into the fire?? China and Asia might make more sense.
https://www.americanpowerandgas.com/newsroom/
My PECO power bill is going up 11+ % for September. We have idiot Greens here in the US too ya know.
It is not America that wants a busted middle class in Europe, particularly in Germany, it is the European elites themselves, Davos man. These folk are banking on the Great Reset, remember. That EU super-state can only come about by destruction. They envisage a new society: a crypto-surveillance state that they can export around the world. This will restore European power in their twisted fascistic minds. Remember that European elites and aristocrats have been in power for centuries, the same families. They consider themselves semi-divine rulers of the world. They want their own European populations to hate America and Russia in equal measure, to feel victims of these twin evils, so as to mask their own depravity.
“If I were Blinken, I would find it very difficult to stop smiling”
Yeah but everyone has a plan till they’re punched in the face.
Massive popular demonstrations in Germany this winter might rock the boat and force Berlin to withdraw from the war against Russia.
**If** this happens the human weasel called Macron might join Germany and call for the end of hostilities and the reboot of diplomatic (and therefore) economical relations with Berlin.
Remember : there’s ONE Euro-Russian pipeline still working. The TAG one that crosses through Ukraine.
You’ve forgotten about Turkstream.
But the US is the world leader in credit default swaps, derivitives, mortgage-backed securities, CEO golden parachutes, social media, and other tech start-ups. I’m sure those will produce energy, materiel, and support a major war effort, right?
I do not understand why USA LNG has not skyrocketed this week…
In previous posts I had noted US UK confidence in attacking Russia must be based on information they had.
I thought that Russia was better strategically and organizationally than it clearly us.
Unless Russia can step up to a new level it is now in serious trouble. It is outnumbered and increasingly outgunned. It’s communications on the front line are poor.
Tactically the failure to take out Ukrainian infrastructure and limit these attacks was now clearly wrong.
It’s also not clear why Russia’s supposedly 1mn strong army with 500k reserves is not on front. Why are they mobilising? Why aren’t they using their army.
Surely the army can’t be that weak that 300k out of a MN rotating will create a problem.
I beginning to wonder how many soldiers Russia actually has, how much equipment and communications they have and how big a role corruption has played.
This seems to be cause for western confidence. The may have known levels of corruption and size of active troops and stocks.
Let’s see if Russia can get it’s act together as it’s going to be in serious trouble if it doesn’t. And corruption and poor leadership will be it’s downfall.
I wonder if part of the furious Ukrainian attacks are because the US knows Russia is gearing up and wants to either force them to move before they’re ready and/or take a chance at precipitating a cascading collapse. Making your opponent move on your initiative is important and leaves Russia in a game of chicken.
Hmmm Elon is coming up with “peace” plans cos his satellites have been used to help Ukraine methinks and he doesn’t want them taken out? or maybe some of them have already been. Got yourself in too deep there Elon.
Black Skies indeed.
No one wants Red Skies!
The first recent example that comes to mind is Sri Lanka and their I’ll-timed / disastrous attempt to pivot to organic fertilizer – basically wiped out their tea exports and helped set the stage for a BoP crisis (of course COVIDs impact on tourism was huge as well).
I expect things will go south and the current governments are no match to the situation (Example 1 – Liz Truss). Good bye Europe! It was nice to know you!
I would be interested in hearing from actual Petroleum engineers about how Natural Gas storage works ?
Everyone imagines that somehow gas is pumped into vast caverns or something and maintained there under high pressure, like air in an inner-tube. Then, when you want it out, the pressure in the storage cylinder pushed the gas out.
But I’m not sure that it works that way.
I think the “authorities” in Europe are fooling people and that, while storage may indeed be full, it will not “carry” them through the winter without a constant supply of gas entering the system.
I don’t actually know if that is the case, but politicians will always tell you everything is fine until it’s not and the physics of Natural Gas storage and retrieval is not straight forward as we imagine.
view this pdf
https://doczz.com.br/doc/341167/carri%C3%A7o—kbb-underground-technologies
Hey, I have an idea! A ceasefire, a negotiated settlement, and peace.
OK, my bad. Sorry for being a spoil sport.
And now, back to war and endless self-created “emergencies.
Alexander Mercouris was talking a lot about ‘delusion’ in his latest video. Now why do the Germans and Russians not start to delude ‘the Anglo-Saxons’ by repairing pipelines, but not telling which is which one anymore. So all of a sudden NS1 is being put into operation again, but physically it is NS2 that is factually operating…
Link to the situation in Europe. Look at Column # 5-Stock / Consumption-filling level compared to annual consumption.
https://agsi.gie.eu/#/
While the Russians say the pipelines are fixable, I have my doubts if they will ever be fixed. First, the West will keep all the current sanctions in place preventing the use of companies who may have required expertise which the Russians might not have. The Nordic countries have basically cordoned off the area of the leaks. I would bet they would refuse access to the area to prevent Russian vessels from making repairs. The Russians will not push the issue as they have more than enough customers to offset the income from the pipelines. BTW saw on Twitter that the Czech government is giving students blankets to stay warm instead of turning on the heat. Europe may soon be living as if the Industrial Revolution never happened.
Again what the elites fail to realize is the ships engine is most likely made by a German company like alot of diesels are for big trucks etc ,building a ship requires lots of logistics, even hiring welders can take months ,and guess what? there is a serious lack of skilled labor in the US ,its just completely delusional,go find a place that can roll 1 inch plate ….who isn’t under contract to the DOD building another aircraft carrier,even getting the steel may take 2 years these days.
May I point out, mon ami, that some people are assuming that the attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines were done against the interests of Germany. While I, au contraire, am assuming that these attacks were done with the full support of the German Greenie government. Some people call the Greenies, the EcoNazis. An alliance between the EcoNazis and the UkroNazis seems plausible to me.