A black and dangerous day for the Russian air operations in Ukraine. A Russian Special Air Group was ambushed, causing the deaths of at least 9 pilots. Simplicius tells the tale:
Today Russia lost two Mi-8s, and Su-34, and reportedly an Su-35. All nine pilots were killed. This is likely three in the Mi-8, three in the Mi-8MTPR1 (pilot, copilot and EW suite operator), two in Su-34, and one in Su-35.
These four aerial assets comprised what’s called a ‘special air group’ as they operated together as one unit on a coordinated mission objective. One of the Mi-8s was likely in a recovery role, specifically sent as a craft to recover downed pilots as a precaution, the other was an advanced Mi-8MTPR1, which is an electronics / EW platform. The role of the Mi-8MTPR1 is to provide electronic jamming and cover for the Su-34, whose role was to launch airstrikes, likely in the form of the new FAB-500M-62 UMPC ‘planning’ or glide-bombs. The Su-35’s role in this special air group is to provide air cover against potential hostile air threats, i.e. enemy fighter jets.
I do not know if the article is behind a pay wall, but it provides a very detailed analysis of what may have happened. Bottomline — the Russians are not sure how this aerial ambush was carried out. This is clearly a tactical black eye for the Russians. It does not change the trajectory of Ukraine’s ultimate defeat, but it is likely to lead to a significant escalation in Russian attacks on NATO ISR assets at a minimum. Until now, the Russians largely have avoided attacking U.S./NATO targets. I think that is now at an end.
It is not just the attack on the “Special Air Group.” The Ukrainians also launched two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on civilian targets in Luhansk. I think the combination of these two events will lead to a change in Russian tactics. Patience in responding to Western-backed terrorist attacks is likely at an end.
The Russian response to the NATO-backed escalation carries a significant risk of widening the war into a full blown war with NATO. To quote Thomas Paul Anderson’s movie, “There Will Be Blood.”
Providing ISR and logistics support to Ukraine makes any NATO assets participating in this combatants from a legal point of view. I am not sure the exact mile limitations on this activity, but the act of coordinating and providing intel for the attacks is hostile. Russia should enforce this 120KM+ in the Black Sea and the air space over Ukraine. Any NATO planes, drones, etc. should have already been engaged by Russia. The gloves need to come off. Once Russia develops countermeasures to SCALP, from what I understand England’s only Anti-surface missile, Russia should trash the Royal Navy at an opportune time when all 3 QE class CVs are in Portsmouth. Russia should Kinzhal and Kalibr the bejesus out of it and then try to blockade England, like Germany did. Russia would likely have more success becuase the ASuW missiles on Russian subs, like Oscar II, Yasen, etc. are much more formidable than German U-boats that had to rely on unguided torpedos. England should be given an option, cease all material support for Ukraine, or face naval blockade and starvation.
So Moscow’s solution is to sink the UK Navy and escalate to WW3?! I do not believe! Right at the beginning of the conflict, the Western press was also fed up with reporting land ambushes by the AFU that resulted in many dead Russian soldiers. And how is the ratio of KIAs in the conflict today? 7:1? Russia today also shot down a heli and 2 fixed wing ukies! Ambushes per se are not strategic or sustainable over time! At the tactical level, they are nothing more than PR. In response to the heavy casualties that VVS has inflicted in recent times and the pressures reported by Sec. of the Defense of Ukraine Danilov, to negotiate on Russian terms! There is already too much disunity in the West.
We are in WW3 just nobody seams to understand it yet
The awakening will be quite rude soon for all the dreamers
You are so right Mike
For anyone paying attention it should be clear that full on war with NATO is inescapable.
Russia has been going softly avoiding the big conflict in order to give themselves time to build up and prepare for it while they have been slowly but surely destroying Ukraine military with minimal forces and minimal losses and casualties, while at the same time they have been carefully observing and learning about all the various NATO weapons and defence systems. This latest bloody nose and dramatic turn of events with the downing and deaths of the special air group will have hurt but will also provide valuable additional lesson and learning for future reference.
You can bet that the Russians are pulling out all stops producing huge stockpiles of weapons that they do not want to deplete yet – they want to build up their arsenal while slowly destroying Ukraine forces and manpower.
They also want to be sure for future historical record that there can be no mistake or misunderstanding as to the provocations of the Anglo-American-NATO Wartards.
If it serves their longer-term strategy then Russia may yet still hold back from unleashing full force – waiting longer to ensure a massive superiority of weapons will be ready and at hand for the big one. Furthermore if Russia resists reacting and launching major offensive response then the calculated likely outcome will be to inspire over-confidence in NATO and over-confidence can be a really deadly disadvantage.
It is coming as sure as the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
Pepe Escobar with his usual eloquence explains the inevitable in the following article on Strategic Culture:
Nazi Germany’s Defeat… But a Pause for Fascism as NATO’s Proxy War in Ukraine Demonstrates
12 May 2023
Refer: https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/05/12/nazi-germanys-defeat-but-a-pause-for-fascism-as-natos-proxy-war-in-ukraine-demonstrates/
Two sentences from Escobar’s article as follows:
“The entire NATO axis is de facto at war against Russia. This is no longer a proxy war and it is heading inexorably to an all-out war”.
I also suspect that Russia may be in process of identifying third column traitors inside Russia that they need to round up and eliminate before this big event. If so none of that will ever reach any news outlet – it will happen with Stalin-like stealth and force. This oligarch element poses huge threat if it is not dealt with – they are those who worship the Neoliberal elites in Washington, Wall St and The City and want to join the club and return Russia to the 1990s economic feudalism – they are enemies of the Russian people no less.
Another of Escobar’s articles details the divisions in the ranks:
Cries and Whispers Along the Russian Watchtowers
12 May 2023
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/05/12/cries-and-whispers-along-the-russian-watchtowers/
We can also be sure that China is in full on preparation mode pulling out all stops to stock pile an arsenal from hell for the Taiwan / Pacific war against the newly emerging NATO Pacific operation that will surely follow the coming full-on war in Europe as night follows day.
There is nothing that can be done now to throttle this back and de-escalate. There is nothing Washington, London or Brussels can do now to stop the inevitable – they could get on their knees and plead for a peace agreement but Russia and China and the BRICS now know all too well that the criminally insane genocidal Nazi psychopaths who own and run the Anglo-American-EU complex can never be trusted again at any level. Russia and China and BRICS know that if there is ever to be any possibility for them to co-exist in a shared-power multipolar world, where they have sovereign rights to make their own decisions about how they live and organize their economies and resources, then the criminals in the West have to be destroyed on the battlefield (as they are going to be).
It will be a tragedy beyond any historical comparison or precedent, but it cannot be avoided.
Damn the globalist hegemons to hell.
And Pepe also explained how two nuclear powers escalate a conventional war without burning the whole world? Be sensible! The US never predicted winning the war on the battlefield on the Russian border! The plan was to destroy the Russian economy with economic sanctions which proved to be a boomerang and destabilize Russian society with hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers! But it failed. Economically, because Russia has never been a gas pump, with an industrial base that already allows it to be growing more than the US and on the battlefield, if the US dominated for a few years with the precision weapons, today it no longer has that advantage ! And the worst thing is that US almost don’t exist industrially, which is why, no matter how brilliant some weapons system like the HIMARS or now the British missiles are, they never have the scale to become wonderweapons like the russian glibe bombs.
This time London must have sent another 14 missiles. And in a high-intensity war, quantity is quality! Where Russia has a huge advantage! And proof that the US can’t keep doubling forever is its economy! Which, as a rule, always wins the big wars! The US today already has much more serious and more urgent problems to solve than being stuck in Ukraine! Which to some extent accelerated many of these problems! Because more than half of the world, which was already tired of US hegemony and above all US wars, soon realized who provoked more this war. At the end of the day I get the idea that after all we are more stupid in the West than what I always thought! More stupids with more schooling!
Well stated!
Given this it is likely Russia will soon launch an all out offensive to take Ukraine right to the Polish/EU border- where they will pause, giving European nations one last opportunity to choose their fate.
It is a balancing act for Russia as they build reserves, but have to act before Europe gets its military industry going.
Yes that’s exactly how I see it but I couldn’t have written it as good as you👍
Russia knows what’s coming and they prepare for it, same with China.
European leaders are mostly insane corrupt traitors so for us in Europe hard times are ahead.
I also don’t know what could safe us from the inevitable.
That is spot on. I have said it on many occasions too. People still believe sanctions and the western fight to isolate and defeat Russia is some sort of an disagreement between both sides.
No, this is it. People are already dying on both sides. The west clearly wants to escalate further. This will end very bad for many people. Russia is patient, but everything has also a limit.
Many commentators have said it, and people still don’t get it. Escalations of all sorts have been happening for a long time. They are not going to suddenly stop and reverse themselves. We are past the point of no return. It will only get worse.
Yes, ever since Melania came down the escalator in 2015.
There’s ww-iii, and there’s WW-III!!! If you don’t understand the difference, then you don’t understand anything.
NATO supply depot
May 14th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkr5Q0aadXk
Looks like some nasty stuff was there.
https://t.me/intelslava/47715
How many V2 have hit London?
You need to educate yourself….
No, you are wrong. This is already WW3 on summer. Unless a whole bunch of people in Washington. London and Brussels pull their heads out of their asses and I mean RIGHT NOW we are going to simmer our way into extinction. ( at least in the West, Russia has operable defenses as well as actual Civil Defense, not just bunkers for the high & mighty)
The only way cure the west’s cranial/anal inversion is by massive shock treatment hopefully before its too late.
Starting around 2014, Russia started to renovate the fallout shelters in schools and kindergartens for “educational purposes”.
I have a feeling the West is about to get an education, a real one.
It’s the beginning of the final countdown, as described in the Bible. I won’t even try to line up current events with biblical prophecy, but I the events are driving us to a situation that will culminate in “West” (aka the forces of evil) vs China (and China is not the “good guy”), at which point the Lord will return in POWER and save the world (from itself) and mete out punishment as needed.
The forces behind the scenes (call them the establishment, elites, human nature, the devil, all of the above) have been pushing toward this end for a long time, toward a one-world government. Technology today makes this “dream” attainable. But who will head the one-world government? China’s elite (the Communists) will not defer to the West’s elite (big capital), and that is where the problem comes in, and the world escalates to extinction unless, and until…the Second Coming.
The Ukraine is like Manchuria, 1938. The next big “show” will be in…Turkey.
That’s right, Turkey. Turkey is playing both West and Russia. This can’t continue. Both the US and Russia don’t like uncertainty. The Turks will overplay their hand, and Turkey will be broken up, putting Russia “next to” Syria and Iran, and setting the stage for bigger conflicts, which will set the stage for the … you know–the end of mankind. As predicted, on the way, we will live thru awful times. So enjoy today, be thankful, a good tomorrow is not a foregone conclusion.
1st,-“they” don’t want to pull their heads out of rectums
2nd – the U.S., as we now know it, is not capable of directing the future outcome of this war – open your eyes and look…deep state, neo- cons, Rothschild,CFR, whomever, – the controlling influence is not ” We the People”(U.S.)
3rd – China would do well to act in concert with Russia on ” response action” ( or Iran, or???) Would the warmongers amongst us choose a fight against multiple contingents and theatres? Would they have the resources? Choose nuclear annihilation?
I am a Patriot of the U.S. as I understand it’s Constitutionally formed Republic principles.
lastly, I have been a recent student of ancient archeological history – at 70, I read a lot! Suffice to say that our most recent attempt at earth civilization is thot to have started around 3500BC+-. There appears to be one or more civilization cycles on earth prior to that, with indications of possible nuclear and other catastrophe’s ( floods, comets ) of some really ancient sites, with roughly 5000 year cycles indicated between.
There is good reason to believe in biblical prophesy, tho they may not be exact interpretations but they reflect the closest documented record we have.
God’s Will…. I’m not certain, but we are certainly fore-warned! History does have the stigma of repeating itself – ordained or not.
…do the math, if we started our cycle in 3500BC, well, nice talking at ya
It’s too late
Probably
Russia can escalate in terms that advance it’s objectives in Ukraine or in terms that seek revenge but make their objectives in Ukraine more difficult to achieve.
I believe they will keep their eye on the prize and not attack NATO territory or NATO assets outside of Ukraine. There’s no sense in creating conditions where you have more enemies to fight.
Sanctions have backfired, Ukraine army is being decimated on the battlefield. Russia is working on their timetable not the MSM’s or NATO’s. The west bet the farm on this little adventure so expect many more eye catching media friendly attacks while Russia grinds out a victory. Revenge is a dish best served cold anyway and defeating Ukraine is much better revenge than any pinprick attack on NATO that risks an escalation that neither side really wants.
Agree with all.
I guess I should have added I am regime decapitation’s biggest fan. If NATO would fill the resultant gap, well, things would at least be honest. But that’s an aside. Ze needs to go for his crimes against Ukrainians.
I don’t think the USA would send up any replacement. They think they are off-stage! They would be in the center of the ring or way off somewhere not Ukraine if Ze were to vanish.
“Russia should trash the Royal Navy at an opportune time when all 3 QE class CVs are in Portsmouth”
And Start World War III in the process?
In my mind there is one word for this: MADNESS!
There are only two QE II’s, and only one is operational.
Quoted Michael McCarthy.
Did not check his claim.
Mea culpa
Of course, you’re right. Fortunately for all of us, the people in charge at the Kremlin are a damned sight more mature and responsible than the fanatics and culture -free, reckless dimwits running Washington and London (not to mention the delusional lunatics posting their desire for WW 3 at Larry’s and others’ internet sites).
+1000
I really dont think it is worth triggering Article 5 and WWIII over this. I do agree it needs a severe response, but one that leaves a de-escalation path open.
I think the best response would be to sink one of the UK Vanguard submarines. It is not an attack on the territory of the UK and UK/US has the option to call it a tragic accident at sea.
There are no “legal” reasons for war but “causes”, motives (casus belli) for war.
There are only two QE class, and one is being cannibalised to keep the other going.
Not the Navy, the City of London, that one square mile with all the inbred dragons living in it.
I heard from a buddy of mine it was a U.S./U.K./Polish SOF shoot and scoot cakewalk and expect a whole more of it Russkie amateurs. 😁
The 103 cruise missile salvo on Syria in 2018 was 66 US Tomahawks, the other 37 must have been British and French SCALP?maybe,not sure if Britain has Tomahawks. Anyhow 79 were shot down by SYRIAN AD older Buk and Tor. Some must have been SCALP,Russia produced fragments,Russia also monitored the strike. Point is Russia already knows how to shoot them down
Alexander Mercouris of The Duran captured the DC War Party best: “If you’re a neocon you have no reverse gear, they are going to double down, triple down, quadruple down,” and right on cue:
https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the
They seem to like civilian targets best. Good thing for them they abandoned the Geneva Convention for their rules-based sh*t.
lol. spot on.
Your friend the self-styled master of military science Martyanov only admits two downed and ludicrously claims they were brought down by MANPADS, a claim not even his slavish fan club is swallowing.
Why does Russia need to be hit and suffer losses before escalating? Why can’t it escalate proactively?
First because its winning and second because it does not gain anything from the 3rd World War!
Biswapriya – Didn’t Maryanov write: “Here is what we know and was confirmed: one Mi-8 and one SU-34 have been lost, very likely, but not 100%, due to the use of the MANPADS by the VSU diversionary group near the border of Bryansk Oblast with 404.”
What part of “very likely but not 100% due to the use of MANPADS” you didn’t get?
Greetings.
I salute your patience in replying a known commentator whose stock in trade is to denigrate professional people who spent their time in trying to teach us.
As a rule, I stop wasting my time to read people whose opinions I do not cherish, maybe Biswapriya should try to do the same thing instead of tormenting us with his lamenations.
Lika,
If we were to all just ignore the troll and not respond, eventually it would go away.
The troll feeds on the interaction, and in so doing, completely diverts the focus of the article and resulting discussion in the comments.
Notice here that the article is focused on escalation on the part of Russia in response to the loss of it’s Special Air Group. Escalation has been a concern and a theme that Larry has commented on for some time.
The article was not focused on *how* the losses were incurred, yet the troll is trying to turn the comments section into a debate on that, while pulling in another blogger and potentially all that blogger’s supporters. This will just annoy/discourage other readers who may otherwise seek to participate in thediscussion here in the comments.
The best thing any of us can do is simply don’t feed the trolls.
Imagine yourself in a forrest shouting to the world and the world remains silent.You are correct Bismuth Pootytang feeds on the reaction,don’t react!
Pootytang? Is that like puddy tat, the belching cat?
I taut I taw a puddy tat swippin some clowox under my hat.
“Why does Russia need to be hit and suffer losses before escalating? Why can’t it escalate proactively?”
Because Russia doesn’t want to fight a World War all by its lonesome. It needs allies. This will take some time. No rush. The enemy cannot do anything that doesn’t help Russia in this task, it seems.
As a rule, I don’t waste my time my time to read people whose opinions I do not cherish, maybe you should try to do the same thing instead of tormenting us with your lamenations.
What macabre pleasure do you derive from pulling others down?
Macabre indeed.
I sure hope this subject is being paid for it, otherwise it’s really someone badly sick in the head.
Because that is what the blood-thirsty neocons want Russia to do, and exactly why Russia must deny them. It is Russia that has escalation dominance.
Why don’t you relocate your shitposting to some other site?
“slavish fan club”, Biswapriyab are you an Indian bigot?
Biswapriya, Martyanov is good for the big picture, plus he is entertaining.
That is why I read his column and watch his videos.
He is NOT interested in the day to day details of the war since he thinks those don’t matter, Russia will surely win anyway! So don’t depend on him to be accurate on details.
From his Saturday, May 13, 2023 post “I don’t read and do not use ANY TG channels, especially by such “experts” as Boris Rozhin (aka Colonel Cassad) and his ilk, but only use confirmed information from Russia’s MoD or people in the US(!!) who are military and intel professionals”.
For war details try these sites:
Simplicius: https://simplicius76.substack.com/
Niqnaq: https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/ (it has Military Summary, Colonel Cassad)
Levan Gudadze: https://www.youtube.com/@LevanGudadze (also on Rumble)
Re. why can’t Russia escalate proactively, for example take down the Western Empire’s satellites, my take is that it is not strong enough.
Look at Syria, US is calmly occupying the oil rich part and stealing Syria’s oil.
And there is nothing Russia has been able to do about it. Someone, probably Iran, has been brave enough to bomb the US encampment a couple of items but that is about it.
I think you are right about “slavish fan club”. It could also be that over-enthusiastic moderators are removing all comments that question anything the blogger is saying leaving only the slavish comments!
Andrei Martyanov lends an unparalleled insight into the Russian leadership’s mindset, that comes from a similar highly educated and functional perspective. Self-styled is a description or title that one bestows upon themselves. I’ve never heard or read Andrei labeling himself in such a way, but he deserves the title nonetheless. when referring to Andrei you should actually use the correct honorific of Grand Master considering the breadth of scope of his knowledge and understanding.
I’m Canadian and not at all Slavic while being a fan of G.M. Andrei Martyanov.
Bet Martyanov k ows 1000% more about military matters than you. I’ll wait to see what the Russian MOD discovers. For sure Manpads are more likely unless you seriously think Ukraine manage to get at least 2 planes in position without detection by radar and AD. Your snide remark belittles you not Martyanov
Use of Storm Shadows will likely invite retaliation, but probably not an obvious variety. Russians will covertly hit the British where it hurts, but not one that they can public admit. Whatever happens, it’ll be written off as an “accident” of some kind.
Not too sure if the loss of the SEADS task force will necessarily invite a particular “retaliation”: from what I can gather (admittedly very limited and often contradictory), Russians fell into doing things by routine, Ukrainians identified a weakness (presumably, that the jamming helicopter is vulnerable to low altitude AA weapons not relying on radars (like MANPADs), and without the jamming helicopter, the fixed wing aircraft are vulnerable to radar guided missiles, and organized a clever ambush. It does, however, seem surprising that the Ukrainian AD assets were able to practically move up all the way to the Russian border, which does suggest that Russian military has not been as thorough as the RuMoD would like to say.
While the pro-Ukrainian propaganda prevalent in the West might be ludicrous, I have to confess that the way Ukrainian military has been able to pull off surprises like this (and the Kharkov offensive) is pretty remarkable. Kharkov surprised me mostly because I did not expect Ukrainians to have enough sufficiently trained cadre left to pull off a large scale coordinated offensive–which, I suspect, was also the belief by the Russian leadership, and I have to think that the experience did catch them by surprise. This ambush surprises me because I didn’t think Ukraine has enough air defense assets left to pull off something like this, and again, I was wrong thinking that (I do wonder if the Russian Air Force similarly did not expect this). In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter much, but as Simplicius keeps saying, Ukrainian military is not to be underestimated.
“ Ukrainian military is not to be underestimated”
And not to forget, Russia is fighting NATO in what has been a trap carefully prepared over 8 years.
Just because Biden and co are stupid, corrupt and demented, it would be a mistake to underestimate the military will and capabilities of the collective West.
I would not expect a NATO country to pull off something like this–most NATO militaries are not that clever or adaptable. The combination of special forces with MANPADs taking down EW helicopter(s) with the long range missiles following up on fixed wings has hallmarks of “Soviet” military all over it. A reminder that Ukrainians, too, have inherited Soviet cleverness in tactical operations.
As others will doubtless point out, Russia is not just fighting Ukraine. Involved is most of NATO, it’s assets are available to the UAF in terms of equipment, munitions and more importantly planning and intelligence derived from whatever platforms are available. Incidents like this are always possible.
The essence of the ambush is the surprise element for the complacent troops that fall in the trap. The magnitude of the RF VVS losses this time is suggestive of a well designed plan, by the NATO personnel actively involved in the support of the Ukrainian forces.
It’s been my personal impression for quite sometime now that all the major moves of the Ukrainians are designed by a NATO group of military experts/commanders who are using the vast capabilities of the Western/US ISR combined with the Ukrainian manpower and equipment to inflict as much damage as possible to the Russians. Zelensky, Zaluzhny, Sirskiy etc are just the puppets for the media to provide the necessary legitimacy in the war NATO is waging against Russia. NATO ISR diagnosed the scarcity of RF troops around Kharkiv and directed the Ukrainian counteroffensive, NATO specialists arranged for the Kerch bridge bomb attack and possibly for the sinking of Moskva etc.
Should RF escalate? I think they will be forced to, but they will have to do it in a way that will not allow NATO to go openly for the undisguised phase of WWIII. At least in the beginning…RF has to show to the rest of the world that can act responsibly and control their liquor…This has earned them so far the support of the 3rd World and Asian superpowers like India and China and they don’t want to lose it.
The downing of the planes will get Anderson Cooper aroused. We will be beating about this like Kherson retreat from some territory by Russians. That story still gets air time. I expect Milley, Austin(anyone else notice he is porking out-those DEI medals look like they are going to pop off-collar getting a bit tight Lloyd) to compare plane destruction to Kherson next week. Austin needs to skip seconds at the Obama Memorial Day clam bake on Marths’s Vineyard. Say hi to Valerie Jarrett, Lloyd.
U.S.-NATO military satellites are feeding real-time ISR to the Uka-Nazis. Time for them to be “retired from active duty.”
It would be difficult for the U.S. propaganda machine to prove Russia did it since there is no evidence to show the public. Besides, it would be justifiable payback for the U.S. destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline.
This is the ebb and flow of warfare in action. Side A develops a new weapon or tactic. Side B develops a counter-measure to defend against that tactic. Side A develops a counter-counter-measure, and on it goes.
The Russians were successful in their airstrikes. The Ukrainians developed a way to ambush an airgroup. Now the Russian airforce will be analysing their losses and working on how to counter this threat.
The same goes for the shiny new, bigger, brighter, bolder, better British missiles. Their window of effectiveness is likely only a few months at most before the air defenses are modified to deal with them.
Yep. HIMARS had strong effect once it appeared. Now, not so much. Small drones are wrecking havoc on vehicles, and now we have more and more cages mounted on everything, and other countermeasures. Both previous World Wars had constant evolution of the way they were fought, and so is this one.
The US provides real-time intel from day 1. In this case, I’m not sure it was accurate. Even if I don’t rule it out either. I get the idea that it was a usual route. It was enough for Ukraine to move SAMs to the border or same fighterjet, don’t know, get the hype and back off! A calculated operational risk! Most likely Russian aircrafts did not need to get so to the front . Perhaps because they had already done so without AD in the region! But Russia will not escalate the conflict because losing 4 aircraft! I think that Ukraine, which no longer disputes the air space, has lost the same number today. Russia is not interested in a war in Ukraine let alone an all-out war! Do not need. It has achieved the objectives with a lot of patience. Proof of this is the crumbling state of the AFU! That even the counter-offensive can no longer launch. And the EU will not go into the next winter with war in Europe! Neither the Fed can continue to raise interest rates. The 2008 crash was never resolved.
I saw a message yesterday from a Russian pilot blaming whoever ordered them to fly so close to the border (50km?). Lots of technical info (that flies right over my head) but bottom line, they could accomplish the mission from 2-3 times the distance (100-150+km) at much lower risk.
Yesterday Russia responded to the ambush by having pilots fly very low, so they must have some ideas about how it happened.
Re: the Fed, Powell is choosing between hyperinflation & depression. Since hyperinflation is within living memory, he has chosen depression. Therefore, interest will hold or rise.
My mother passed on 1 piece of wisdom in her life (she was mostly wisdom-challenged, so this was it).
“At first it (the depression) was great because everything was so cheap. And then it was awful because the (store) shelves were empty.”
Thank you Mary. It happens! No matter how much training, war is always closer to chaos and death than perfection! The human factor makes mistakes and machines break! Didn’t two Russian bombers also dropedd inadvertently two bombs on urban centers? Which probably shouldn’t even fly over! It happens and the error is corrected! But the West continues to dominate most of the media platforms we use to run major PR and BS campaigns! And on platforms that West don’t dominate, there are also many dombers! Or simply, people with a lot of anxiety! In the first war that every soldier have a video camera for BS we all had to stay away from the daily updates of amateurs and professionals of lies and propaganda.
I don’t understand why the blogger Simplicius didn’t mention the NASAMS given to Ukraine by Norway. It fires the AMRAAMs from a smallish ground launcher.
(posting from ignorance now) What if NATO didn’t give Ukraine worn-out junk in this instance, but instead sent the very latest and best? The launcher itself doesn’t appear to be very large, and might even be sent to near the front in pieces to be reassembled there quietly waiting for targets to appear.
As for guidance, might not quick “peeks” from many other radars provide a firing solution to the launch crew, after which internal “homing” within each missile would kick in?
The fact the entire Russian force was wiped out indicates they had likely gotten careless with their tactics and this allowed an optimal siting of the launcher – based upon previous Russian flights.
Still guessing, this ambush business might work two ways. Suppose Russia sneaks in a competent SAM system to its side of the front which would be watching for any attacking SAM missiles, and also provide coordinates for taking out the launcher? As in the late stage of WW2, the bombers – or drones posing as such – would be “bait”.
(Armchair strategy and tactics are much easier when done in relative ignorance)
Dima at Military Summary Channel posted on it, time will tell, but it’s worth a look. He posits the Russian SAG is a recent adaptation of tactics in response to the increasing incursions into Russia. Th UAF noticed the new tactics and infiltrated commandos set set a trap, starting with another provocation. He speculates the helicopters were shot down with Stingers. It’s the front end off the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jav3B0KnQlY&t=1205s&ab_channel=MilitarySummary
I think it was Gilbert Doctorow, who speculated Russia “might” blow up the factories where the Storm Shadow missiles are made.
That seems it might be “escalation management
And Dima of Military Summary channel is some kind of military expert because his channel has the name military in it?
Dima is Baba Vanga type expert. He even mentioned her on some podcast while making predictions, some time ago.
That would explain a lot. Stingers are man portable. If they managed to slip across the border for a few miles, Russian aircraft would be surprised.
I wrote about this tactic in my on-line book.
https://www.g2mil.com/aircommandos.htm
When you are faced with a strategic or tactical change that completely transforms the conflict, a game changer like russian glide bombs, you better think of a quick solution! When you are faced with a stroke of luck, something that is not predictable that the enemy cannot systematically repeat again, you do not need to do anything and you accept the defeat. Especially when you’re winning and the enemy hasn’t thrown anything onto the battlefield capable of changing the course of defeat! British missiles are no wonderweapon and Russia has already dealt with them in Syria. They also only demonstrate the desperation of the British economy.
And I fully understand that this is not acceptable for the Internet mob who have fallen into the error of following a military conflict by the minute. On top of that without any credible sources of information on the battlefield. But they will also have to accept. Or they stop following the conflict to the minute! For the sake of they health! Physical and mental.
I agree. This stuff is never put into the context of:
How many successful Russian air operations took place over the past week with zero losses?
How many Ukrainian air operations were carried out?
How many Ukrainian air losses were incurred?
The legacy of other conflicts. For example, the US lost 10,000 fixed and rotary win aircraft in Vietnam.
Sad for any military to lose anyone. Of course. But the doomers need to look at the context. Western media propaganda will avoid the context. Obviously.
The fact that this event is so newsworthy actually underlines Russia’s total air superiority and that this is an aberration. My guess is that they felt too secure and took risks in the cause of operational efficiency. There are always trade offs and they now need to recalibrate again.
That’s right, they weren’t the first Russian aircraft shot down and they won’t be the last but I still don’t see any game changers on the Ukrainian side! And I get that people hate the hypocrisy of the West that started this war in 2014, dumps billions in weapons in Ukraine and says it’s not at war with Russia?! Especially the US leader who at the beginning of the conflict did not even transfer the Polish MIG 29 to Ukraine. But the constant doubling of the US does not humiliate Russia, it just says that Russia is winning and winning a lot!
Many remain unaware to this day of the nature of SMO in Ukraine. Russia is not at war with the whole of Ukraine, with the entire Ukrainian population, but with the proxies in Kiev! But this is not the only war taking place in Ukraine! Have many already forgotten how Putin challenged the entire West to the battlefield in Ukraine? Come everybody? Because its the best battleground for Russia to militarily defeat the Collective West. A feat that no nation has ever accomplished and Russia is accomplishing it with less than 50% of its military power! Besides the economic storm in the US and throughout Europe, the end of the unipolar world and the hegemony of the US dollar! A multipolar NWO! Does it seem little? Does it seem that Russia should be very upset today with the course of the conflict in Ukraine, the great catalyst for so many transformations in the world? I do not believe! The West is left with virtual reality at MSM and the rabid dogs at NAFO! Russia does not need to cause pain to the entire British population in central London or Portsmouth to defeat the UK! And the same with the US and Brussels!
You summed up perfectly in your last paragraph, that this event is only so newsworthy as a result of it being such a rare occurrence. It is similar to the saturated media coverage of a train disaster or plane crash, as tragic as these events are, they are only given over to saturation coverage precisely because they are such a rare occurrence but in the meantime the masses are overcome with a newfound fear and dread of train and plane travel when in actual fact both modes of transport are the safest modes of travel.
This is different – it made it to the level of affecting public discourse in Russia. Thus, there must be a response. Look 9/11 had zero effect on the US economy, military, or geopolitical power. The terrorists had zero followup, we have discovered.
Russia didnt “major escalate” with attacking that base in Russia nor Kremlin. They’re better off to just bleed Ukraine of men. War with NATO isn’t needed directly. If they beat Ukraine NATO is dealt a huge loss. These pin pricks won’t change anything like you said so why risk WW3 for ego?
“If Russia beats Ukraine, NATO is dealt a huge loss”.
Meanwhile however, NATO gets all its member states to significantly expand their financial and logistical commitment, while not one, but two geostrategically hugely important countries, Sweden and neighbouring Russian arch enemy Finland finally join NATO. To say nothing of the possible stationing of nuclear weapons in the latter country.
Not so sure if that`s my definition of a “huge loss” to NATO. More like an “extremely worrying development”, I`d say.
What sort of a neocon newspaper are you using to wrap your smokes, man? Finland being Russia’s “arch enemy”? It’s a former Russia’s protectorate that once tried to pull off ukraine-like stunt on the Soviets and lost its territory, when all it had to do was a land swap.
Sure the “Winter War” and the “Continuation War” might be big in Finland and elsewhere, spreading Enemy at the Gates-like stories about incompetent Soviets being slaughtered by the Finnish space marines. The reality is much less poetic – Russia doesn’t even have a separate name for this war, it’s just a “Finnish campaign”.
Just like with the war of 2008 with Georgia, Soviet Union had an option to mach all the way to Helsinki and rename it to Helsingfors once again – a Swedish name the city had, prior to being sold to Russian Empire following the loss of the Norther War (notice how that one actually does have a native Russian name?).
In 2023 Finland won’t even be able to do that much, as its population declined, active military is about 20k men with a force of 200k reservists. Their only use for NATO is a nuke dump to launch a strike and then be wiped out by a retaliation.
@Cheburek
“Their only use for NATO is a nuke dump to launch a strike and then be wiped out by a retaliation.”
E-x-a-c-t-l-y.
It’s amazing how human beings are the same everywhere. The same stupid I mean.
What do Finland wins by joining NATO instead of remaining neutral?
PS: I visited Riga in 2015. In the Spanish news it was repeated ad nauseam that Russia was menacing the Baltic countries. I asked the landlady of my apartment if she felt threatened. She just replied “Why would the Russians attack us? We have nothing”.
Not so many people has a minimum of common sense like that woman.
The problem there, is that NATO member states cannot significantly expand their financial and logistical commitment. The West has exhausted it’s capabilities and is out of money. The US President has at least twice mentioned the possibility of default. If they just print the money they will worsen the inflation that is already starting to be a problem.
The sheep in the UK may be docile, but many of them have started to notice that food costs a lot more so why is the government considering gifting up to 400 Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine at 800,000 GBP a pop.
Western politicians needs to wake up to the fact that the oligarchy run system has put them between a rock and a hard place.
I think it’s neither loss nor win, but just another escalation. This war is just getting started and “beating” Ukraine, or expanding NATO, or doing whatever won’t end it. It makes no sense to count chickens, or eggs, or victories, or whatever is the thing that people count too early.
It seems that a huge Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed yesterday.
Where are all the reports asking how Ukraine allowed that to happen?
This war is very asymmetric in all respects. Especially how events are reported, or not reported as the case may be.
Due to size and supposed power difference between Russia and Ukraine (notice how NATO’s involvement is not factored) every Russian success is considered to be an expected outcome and it’s always not enough, while every Ukrainian success is blown out of proportions, since it’s “a little guy” beating “the big guy”.
Another huge one destroyed this morning.
Dog biting a man is not newsworthy. Man biting a dog is.
Have just read, via Rybarfrom Sinplicius, evidence suggests the huge ammo dump included DU. The explosion registered 3.4 on richter scale, & gamma radiation has spiked in the area.
Not really a spike, but surely a noticeable increase.
https://t.me/intelslava/47715
This is why I will never die for another man’s word. Another man’s God. Another man’s belief. And why I will never kill again for the same.
Putin labors under some lawyer’s dementia that his declaration of this as a SMO makes it okay. And that everyone will come to their senses. If he plays “nice”. Then he will travel to Berlin. And have tea. Some day.
And meanwhile Russian soldiers died. Like American soldiers died in Somalia so the Clinton scum could rest easy.
There are a handful of rich and powerful that rely upon us fools dying for them. So, they can play their games. And it will continue. For people are sheep led to the slaughter.
Because what’s the fun of actually either winning or losing a war? There are games to be played. And it is just meaningless lives of the poor to be thrown away. No matter.
These pilot’s blood is on Putin’s hands. They died for his convenience and hopes that he can rejoin his Euro brothers. God damn them all to hell. On both sides.
Amen, brother.
That is a very narrow and short sighted view. If you see the world in these small parameters then that’s a big shame.
By the way the last sentence of your first paragraph was unnecessary and therefore it never happened.
If you’re finished, pull your pants back up and wash your hands.
I think all came out of his mouth
You don’t have any clue what this is all about. You are part of the “problem”. But you are free to state your opinion in here. Whose blood was spilled so you can do that?
Spoken like a true American pacifist.
Now, back in the real world…if the colleagues of those who died in this attack heard your opinions they’d probably have one or to two things to say in answer.
The first would probably be that it is alright for you, in your privileged perch in the imperial metropolis, to choose not to fight. Mainly, because, in your head, you have nothing to fight for. Your life runs like clockwork and Mexico is not going to attack any time soon.
Us, westerners truly have a war to fight, which would be the war against capitalism in general and our predatory elites. But, alas, we’re too comfortable, too ignorant or too cowardly to accept the fight that’s been handed to us.
Instead, we take great pleasure in pointing the finger to both victims and perpetrators, from the rarefied atmosphere at the top of the tree, where the virtue of the winners resides.
The guys that died where there because they thought that was were they were needed by the community they served, the commander in chief of which is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The right guy at the right moment.
It would surely be better to start WW3, starting with killing Ukrainian leadership, nuking Poland, Germany, Britain and the U.S.? Who cares that millions of Russian civilians and military personnel would die, right?
Idk whether you’re a troll or just hyperventilate, but it is the burden on the military leadership to see their men die in a war. Someone has to be the first to enter a room, someone has to lead the charge, etc., etc. At least this time it’s military personnel, not Donbass civilians.
No, I cannot agree with this.
Russia did everything humanly reasonable to avoid this war. The peace agreements offered to Ukraine were exceedingly generous. The Minsk Accords were fair and proper. Which side shit all over those agreements? Hint – not Russia.
Western wars are not fought because of any real threats, but NATO and Ukraine were an existential threat to Russia. Who says? Well Washington and Nato said. They made no attempt to hide their intention of breaking up Russia and turning it into a vassal and strip mine its assets.
Just because Americans are too stupid/lazy/distracted to do anything about an actual invasion of their country across the southern frontier ( not a border, the border is long gone) doesn’t mean other countries have to sit still while their actual borders are surrounded by an aggressive and expansionist military organization with nuclear missiles and publicly stated hostile intentions. A group with a long history of inciting conflicts, assassinations, civil wars and well as relentless bombing attacks on civilians and their infrastructure. Schools, hospitals, water treatment, power generation, farms, wedding parties- all bombed. Not only bombed but poisoned by DU munitions which cause cancer and birth defects for generations and spread toxic waste over farmland making it unusable for a thousand years.
Russia is fighting for its very existence.
Once the FUSA is an unlivable wasteland Russia and the rest of the world-like all the countries invaded, had their children murdered, countires plundered, occupied and bombed to shit by the US – will look and say “karma is a bitch”.
Russia is doing what it must do to survive.
Damn the neocons to hell and I only hope I have the opportunity to escort a few to the gates, once this situation progresses to its logical conclusion.
Alex, I think you misunderstand me. I am pissed Putin is not fighting this to win. He is still playing some imaginary rules-based war. I want Putin to fucking win this. If he uncorked Russia, this would be over in months. Instead, men will die for years in a bullshit “SMO”. Russia will never “rejoin” Europe. And I believe Putin thinks it will. Russia’s future is Asia. And they are completely justified in going into the Nazi wonderland of Ukraine that the US and NATO was arming.
But if you fight? Fight. And in the meanwhile? Why are men dying for other’s nightmares. Before I let a Nazi chain gang send me to Bakhmut? Get one of the million AK’s floating around that shithole, and at last die on your front yard. 20 or 30 fatass back line Nazi’s die they won’t be so enthusiastic about their draft sweeps. And I applaud the young in America not joining the military. The enlistment rates have collapsed. What would happen to their wars if no one went?
Yes, Curt, my apologies, you are correct,forgivce my flying off than handle half-cocked.
According to the ‘international rules-based order’ rule itself, the RU SMO was an R2P operation.
And not just any, more like the premier example of the notion.
NATO began its SMO bombing campaign in Yugoslavia over the pretext of a few dozen KLA fighters post mortem dressed as civilians and dumped in a pit at Racak. It then continued it by choosing civilian targets half way through the operation even after Belgrade agreed to a cease-fire, withdrawal of troops from Kosovo and UN peacekeepers. Then a UNSC Res was passed to end the fighting on NATO terms, then tossed in the bottomless garbage pit of western broken promises.
RF began its SMO bombing campaign over 8 years of verified continuous shelling of civilian targets resulting in thousands of civilian deaths and Kiev’s preparations to launch a massive attack to regain the territory that has seceded from it by the very rules that the ‘western ‘rules-based order’ had established for Kosovo.
Same with Georgia. S. Ossetia had seceded under the very same rules applied for Yugo republics and later, Kosovo and Georgia in 2008, egged on by NATO no doubt, simply decided to begin a war by launching a surprise attack on Tskhinval, S.O., killing civilians and peacekeepers alike.
I have no time for the blatant hypocrisy gushing forth like sewage ad nauseam from western capitals. Out of simple self-respect, neither should you.
Blood is on hands of those that caused this war, and all other recent wars. They are the same people you have been killing for. It’s your fault more than Putin’s.
“These pilot’s blood is on Putin’s hands.”
You have shown yourself to be the new Newdill. But what else to expect from a former low level grunt but abject ignorance. You lacked critical thinking skills back then and still do. An utter moron.
Curt,
And what is your professional experience that allows you to know what Vladimir Putin is thinking? Were you born in Russia?
I think I understand Curtis point. I think he is saying that Putin isn’t taking this serious enough and that then war situation should be past the point where Ukraine could inflict this damage.
I’m not sure I fully agree, because I think I understand Putins position on not wanting to inflict US/ NATO style damage on Ukraine.
Sadly no good deed goes unpunished
Unfortunately NATO is dragging Russia deep too into its Ukrainian war theater. But the best answer to all these provocations by NATO such as supplying of advanced missile systems to Ukraine would be a combination of asymmetrical responses. There are multitude of choices to be made that would force the warrior banking cartel lose their business and profit margin with each passing day by targeting the dollar usage throughout the world without further pause, that Russians and their allies do know about. Sinking one or to NATO ships somewhere is also a possibility. In addition, regional countries can seize oil/gas shipments to western destinations, like Iran did to 2 US-bound vessels the other day. Also with Russian-Chinese help Argentine could take back Las Malvinas Islands (formerly known as the Falklands), or help Syria liberate the Golan Heights… etc.
Enough with the Argentine BS.
The Falkland Islands (still its legal name – not “formally”) were never a part of the State of Argentina.
The islands were a possession of the King of Spain and were ceded to Great Britain 300 years ago before Argentina even existed so they cannot be “given back” to a country that never possessed them in the first place.
If people want to talk about giving them away to their closet neighbour then that’s another matter but it is not giving back.
That would also open up a whole can or worms around the world if progressive people want all islands and other territories ceded to whatever happens to be the nearest landmass.
Well Argentina can develop interests in Falklands same way US develops interests in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria.
When its Navy is sufficiently weak and Argentina has enough support and back up they might just do something to tell the world it’s ok to do it.
Greetings from Tehran. If you look at the map the nearest country to Las Malvinas (formerly known as the Falklands) is that large size country called Argentina. Besides, England is a tiny island by itself where the northern half is shared with Scotland and on the other side Ireland and Wales all having their own historic problems with London. Don’t you think that such a far away set of islands near Argentina is a little too big for London to swallow. By the way, the International Community fully supports Argentina in this case. Once Argentineans are equipped with advanced hypersonic missiles it should become very easy to liberate the islands. Viva la liberation de Las Malvinas.
Bojo, Truss, Sunak, Starmer? Which one is the Iron Lady.?
Bojo, Truss, Sunak, Starmer? Which one is the Iron Lady.?
None. They’re all pot metal.
The Falklands were uninhabited prior to the English going there. Argentina wouldn’t be “taking them back”. I’m no Anglophile, but Argentina has no legit claim on them. They’re not even that close to Argentina.
To what country are they close to? UK?
Argentina never existed when control of the Islands was given over to the British, the result of mutually agreed decision by those trading companies operating around the South Atlantic who wanted an impartial overseer and one who had no vested interest in their trade.
‘This is clearly a tactical black eye for the Russians. It does not change the trajectory of Ukraine’s ultimate defeat’
Sorry, Larry but you are mistaken . Do you never read what Russian patriots are saying? Here are two pro-Russia English language blogs for those interested.
Here’s Marko Marjanovic on the third day of Putin’s NOT WAR
https://anti-empire.com/putin-is-waging-a-halfway-war-and-its-showing/
and a more recent article from Roll Slavskiy
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/everything-is-going-according-to-f6d
Rolo Slaviskiy argues for using nukes – Larry save yourself those two wasted minutes – its a Russian neocon!
Which one of them is Strelkov?
I doubt this act should change much of anything from the Russian perspective – nor should it – Russia will just keep eating Ukraine for lunch, piece by piece, slowly, deliciously, thoroughly chewing each bite. This is war. Shit happens. Sometimes serious shit. But don’t lose perspective – NATO can not win this war, and they know it. They are at a loss what to do about it, so they just double down and continue on ever hoping for a big PR victory for their masses back home. Headline in the British Daily Express this morning:
” ‘Major turning point’ in Ukraine war after Russia suffers ‘worst day in decades’
EXCLUSIVE: At least three Russian aircraft have been downed in what is seen as a “major turning point” in the war and a huge blow to Moscow, a military expert told Express.co.uk.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has seen the country reclaim the eastern city of Bakhmut, leaving Russians “fleeing or surrendering”, in yet another blow to Vladimir Putin’s forces as the war reaches its 63rd week.”
And the British people (not all of them!) believe this kind of propaganda.
Dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
What you describe is fact.
As an Englishman myself, my stance is one of total admiration of the Russian state and leadership.
Call me a traitor, but the “establishment” parliamentary governance and military and the Church’s pathological hatred of all things Russian are anathemas to me.
Raised on a diet of Romanoff lies, they being feudal despots, the truth is still being denied .
Having a monarch who it seems is mute on the subject is an indication of control exercised by the UK state.
Since my heroes being Alfred, Hereward the Wake, and certainly Edward 1 would never countenance such governments of today is my defence as what I consider to be a true Englishman.
What Holy Russia does in retaliation to the Rotten to the core Nation of not-so-great Britain remains to be seen, but I trust in God and his servant the Tzar.
I liked your old queen alright, but this new queen is a dolt.
Yea, must say something about him, he did not marry the queen Consort for her looks, but what the heck, leastways he did not bring a Princess Montecito into the fold.
Considering they are a bastard mix of German, Greek, Dutch, and other inbred Euro trash royal families I submit they are not the Queens of any true English person.
They are usurpers.
Yeah, (s)he’s a real drag. Who would give up that jewel of Diana for old horseface except another old horseface in drag?
Send ’em off to the guillotine, Brits. They’re making a laughing stock of your country. (well, after we’ve stopped laughing over the others anyway).
What would be the English reaction if an EW surveillance aircraft is downed in a “shooting incident” over black see ? How could they escalate ?
They are going to escalate anyway. Depleted uranium was note a response to anything, neither was any of their escalations.
The game, has remained same, since 1054, methods need, reassessments, readjustment und innovation.
Humanity has been elevated to DISPOSABLE, since than, imo.
Thank god, no one counted the victims, ALL the VICTIMS.
It is clear that the US and the UK want an escalation. It’s not just about downed planes and helicopters, but the delivery of British long-range missiles and the first use of those missiles show it much better. The Ukrainians targeted Luhansk, the center of one of the two republics that did not recognize the coup in 2014. They did it deliberately. In contrast to Donetsk, the center of the second republic, whose residents have been terrorized and killed for 9 years, the residents of Lugansk lived as peacefully as possible because the army of the Ukrainian junta was pushed far from the city.
In 2015, there was a bombing of the center of Luhansk from a Ukrainian fighter plane, and the targets were civilian passers-by in the city center. Then, among other things, a pregnant woman died (or the mother pushing the baby in the stroller, I don’t remember exactly), and Ukrainian politicians cynically described the explosions as explosions of a “defective air conditioner”, although there is a video of the impact from the plane.
Now the Ukrainians have received from the British what they have been waiting for a long time, a means of terrorizing Luhansk. They have been shooting at the civilians of Luhansk for two days, although they probably have better military targets elsewhere. It’s as if they want to tell the residents of Luhansk that “for years you enjoyed peace, now you will see how it was for your compatriots in Donetsk”.
For escalation, the Americans and the British found Zelensky, who is their perfect poodle. That clown doesn’t care about Ukrainian lives, let alone Russian ones. Yesterday it was announced that he suggested to his bosses in Washington and London that the Ukrainians conquer some cities behind the Russian side of the border and thus “strengthen the position for negotiations”.
A captured Ukrainian officer told the Russians yesterday that Ukrainian generals Zaluzhny and Syrskyi do not appear in public because they are under house arrest. They were put in custody by the clown Zelensky, fearing that they wanted to overthrow him and start peace negotiations with the Russians
What is the goal of the Russian? To destroy the NATO without ww3?
Or to make Ukraine denazified without WW3?
I wonder what Putin expects from the West. He is not naive. But que Sera?
Perhaps he’s banking on US-China conflict, in which he’ll stand aside and provide non-military support, just like China is doing now?
Notice how since their meeting earlier this year China became more bold in its foreign policy. Russia that was mediating in the Middle East for years – they talked to the Saudis, the Iranians, helped Syria, etc. and suddenly out of thin air China gets to parade a peace deal between these three? Some time ago China suddenly found a hypersonic missile tech under a mossy rock and who knows what else was there.
I guess Ukraine’s threat was deemed too severe to Putin’s regime and Russia’s continued existence so he had to start this war, but Russia’s in no shape to be a major world power yet. It needs its own industrial base rebuilt, its own circle of satellite states before it can even think of fighting the hegemon and win.
China on the other hand, with Russian support, stands a chance today. Yes, they’ll rip most benefits it they manage to kill the giant, but even China’s in no place to replace the U.S. just yet – they’ll have to declare a multipolar world for another 30-50 years. Ample time for Russia to reemerge as the #2 power.
“Putin’s regime and Russia’s continued existence so he had to start this war”
Putin did not start this war.
“It needs its own industrial base rebuilt, its own circle of satellite states before it can even think of fighting the hegemon and win.”
Doomer or troll? That is the question.
Maybe to let The West economically collapse without WWIII.
Exactly, that’s the best we all can hope.
Russia CAN rearrange the stones in Washington, as Martyanov says, but what’s the price they (and all of us) would pay for that?
I cannot wait to see banksters jumping from their windows. We already had the pandemic, then the war, now we are missing the Big Financial Crack.
diplomacy is dead, our leaders have gone mad
on a different note, how long until ukraine pulls off a successful attack on the kerch bridge employing storm shadow cruise missiles, while russia for the umpteenth time claims “surprise” and holds out the future prospect of a “severe retaliation”?
this incessant anglo-saxon meddling in russia`s internal affairs is getting tiresome, to say the least: the question however becomes, can russia project power; or is it perhaps effectively incapable of doing so?
I assume to the likes of you “projecting power” means “can Russia nuke London” and get away with it. No, they can’t.
They can kick the French out of Africa, negotiate peace in the Middle East and hand the PR-side to the Chinese to let them “tank” hegemon’s response, make a laughing stock out of Europe by still supplying them with “banned” oil, gas and nuclear reactor fuel, make Japanese beg their U.S. overlord to pretty please allow them to continue to buy Russian resources and wage a conflict vs. 50+ countries that would devastate any other nation without going to war economy and totalitarian population control while having an official GDP of Luxembourg.
but if there’s almost no nato officers in ukraine how the russians can do that? and there were no nato officers, otherwise the nato bunker would be blasted. but in reality there are just nato weapons that operate alone by magic, so russians cannot target people that didin’t exist, right?
“may have happened” … This is not far away from what the MSM is actually doing. Taking some facts and invent everything else around it.
So far nothing really significant is known about that incident. Speculation only inflates everything as people seem to get caught up in stories not being able to see what is true and what is obviously only an assumption. Just my opinion.
The Ukrainians could not have pulled this off without NATO assets involved , absolutely no way. Probably use of a BUK or one of the few remaining S300s with the target tracking provided by NATO AWACS from Estonia (although at the extreme radar range). The BUK or S300 would have been switched on at the last moment for target lock. According to Simplicius the Thinker, the Mi8s were shot down at a distance of 50km from the border which suggests complacency on the RuAF’s part when the EW Mi8 should have activated its systems at least 100km from the Ukrainian border. The damage from MANPADs is not possible, the warheads are too small. The video image of the SU34 after it had been hit showed a catastrophic explosion.
NATO assets assisting Ukraine now should be treated as direct participants in the conflict and destroyed by Russia.
The other day I posted something about emotions driving human action. Successful people, nations, states control their emotions in guiding their actions. The maturity to impose self-control defines the civilized person as civilized.
I ask you: Who displays better self-control, Lavrov or Blinken?
‘Nuff said.
I was wondering about this the other day, the British are quite comfortable escalating as they don’t believe the Kremlin will respond kinetically. What would I do if I were scheming to further humiliate Putin? The Kerch Bridge is within combat radius of a SU24 to launch Storm Shadows over the Black Sea. What if the SU24 shadowed (with British consent) a RC135 Joint Rivet and Typhoon ISR mission which have been flying regularly over the Black Sea past Crimea? The British could install NATO FoF on the SU24s to mask the presence on Flightradar 24.
How about blowing up a British nuclear submarine in British waters – spread the radioactivity – probably could be done with deniability by Russia, and would the UK admit it to its citizens, or wait until they started glowing and then dying in droves from their fish and chips. Given Poseidon, I doubt the Brits would respond.
Britain’s Conservative Government has announced plans to downsize the Army.
Is the British Military under the control of the British Government, or is it acting autonomously to provoke conflict and make Military cuts impossible?
The British Intelligence services have all the blackmail dirt on every politician and can control them when and how they want.
Who Governs Britain?
Who is determined to start a war between Britain and Russia?
Who Governs Britain?
In its plural form, it’s a four-letter word, & no there ain’t no prizes for Knowing the answer.
In the context of the last year or even last week 4 aircraft is a small amount.
I’m pretty sure the fuel depot that Russia blew up
(linked to by Andrei Martynov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkr5Q0aadXk&t=149s)
will have much bigger influence on the outcome of the war and indeed numbers dead and $ millions spent.
This is a typical Ukrainian act – designed to get some publicity while covering up that instead of 500 Ukrainians dying yesterday it was some 1900.
Ukraine is pushing for the end of this war in a hurry – which I suppose is good – at least for anyone young enough not to be called up yet.
Austin was in front of congress talking about
mommy care for the military, pregnancy support, etc.
1/5 military is female and recruiting is challenging to say the least. The times we are in are so weird. I can see Joe winning in 2024, stepping down, Kamala steps in and announces a race based draft. Guess who is not in the swimming pool, CornPop. Nothing surprises me.
“I do not know if the article is behind a pay wall…”
Subscriptions to Simplicius (formerly Night Vision at the Saker) are free. There may be some articles for paying subscribers only (I forget if he does that), but this one was in my email yesterday.
The Kievan bosses that run this whole thing are a special protected class. That’s what makes this a Special Military Operation and not a war. Some of them today may be at Disney World Paris with their families or spending a busy Sunday seaside being measured for another yacht. These are Russia’s rule of engagement. And they are working.
I’d like to think this will precipitate a hearty response. But let’s be honest. Russia has allowed NATO to breech so many red lines.
Who Governs Britain?
In its plural form, it’s a four-letter word, & no there ain’t no prizes for Knowing the answer.
How would the Elite in the City of London like it if the Russians launched a hyper Kinzahl with a conventional warhead at them? Will they send their aircraft carrier to Russia? or will they send our American boys to die for them? The Elites of Britain continue to cause people to die so they can extract more wealth from the world’s population, really? These people need a broken nose, a black eye and a swift kick in their Communist arse, for starters.
When are you, the English going to regime change these inbred demons, so you can go back to holding your head high among nations? Instead, you proudly put on a Disney production of the Tampon King and the Royal mistress.
Britain is, and always has been a class-ridden, War like Nation.
It’s a genial (for the most part) population being easily led and propagandized.
Until the population gets what is inevitably coming to them, i.e. Strife, not a lot will change.
What should concern the future generations on this sceptred Isle is the assimilation of more of the world’s ferocious tribes, Pathans, /Pashtuns, and Punjabis, Lord knows we have a limitless population of ’em.
Assuming of course we’re not vaporised first.
“What should concern the future generations on this sceptred Isle is the assimilation of more of the world’s ferocious tribes, Pathans, /Pashtuns, and Punjabis”
After the disgraceful colonisation of India, that is karma, the chicken tikkas coming home to roost.
In 1760 India’s GDP was 26% of the World’s GDP and Britain’s was 3%. In 1880 India’s GDP was 2% of the World’s GDP and Britain’s was 27%. (These numbers are a close approximation, that gives you an accurate impression.)
The problem faced by the English population or those of any empire, even the US of today, is that when the oligarch class can’t loot their colonies any longer to feed their greed, they extract the life out of their own populations.
Good for Ukraine! I hope they shoot down even more Russian planes who launch missiles from Russian airspace because they are too scared to enter Ukrainian airspace due to the fact that they’ll be shot down. And how is that a “terrorist attack”. They are defending their country from Russia’s illegal invasion and they have every right to strike targets in Russia. Russia is the country launching terrorist attacks, with their attacks on civilian apartment buildings, churches, schools, playgrounds, etc. And do you really think that Putin would be stupid enough to attack NATO? Given the fact that, after trying for almost 8 months, Russia still can’t take even Bakhmut, that would be suicide. The U.S. Airforce would annihilate Russia’s Airforce within days. So if Russia wants to tangle with NATO, bring it on!
Troll Alert or papa Bear just woke up from hibernation.
Wash your hands after you’ve done. And check the zipper.
Ron, do you live in the trailer next to Eric Newdill? Are you sharing meth pipes?
The Russian Special Operation to exterminate the Ukrainians began in February 2022 and in March of the same year the Ukrainian armed forces were completely defeated and the Ukrainians accepted to sit at the negotiating table with the Russians. But the US and its doormats in Europe said no and from there the fighting intensified with hundreds of thousands dead. And how many thousands of dead are Russians? Knowledgeable people like Larry himself say that PUTIN/RUSSIA methodically bleeds the Ukrainians, as such a strategy bleeds the US and its doormats both in weapons and in money thrown into the black hole that is Ukraine. Yes, it may be that this is the Russian strategy, but what about the population of Russia itself? If she is being correctly informed by the unfolding war, how is she facing the death of her thousands of young children? A Russian father and mother calmly accept the sacrifice of a son in the name of the Atlanticists’ bleeding strategy, knowing that the Russian Armed Forces in a few days can completely wipe out the Ukrainians and the band of Nazis led by the drug addict Zelensky? I am a father and I would never accept the sacrifice of one of my children in the name of geopolitics.
Ukies are dying for geopolitical reasons. To the Russians however this is not “geopolitics”, this is a fight for their very existence.
They have been here before and will not allow a repeat of what happened to them in the Great Patriotic War.
Stop dooming and educate yourself
Education for the sake of education, you should also educate yourself and improve your reading skills, because I raised an existential question as well, but in the microcosm of a Russian family and you come with a conversation about the macrocosm of a country, Russia and such Your comment makes me question whether you have or have had children.
AlceuCV… I hope to God you didn’t loose a child in the SMO, but if you did, I am truly sorry for your loss.
What grr might have said differently is that Russia is facing again, the Barbarians at its gate.
Russia is blessed to be able to so effectively defend itself and the rest of the world. As it turns out, Russia has the Globalist parasites over a barrel and letting up on them before they are exhausted and until they are made aware of their limitations is imprudent. I know it’s not eazy to hear what seems to be armchair coaching with so much loss of life on both sides, however in truth, it is people of good conscious cheering on the powers of good against evil.
Peace AlceuCV.
Thousands of miles of border. Hundreds of thousands of acres. Excellent intell by NATO assets. Commando groups. There is always dissent within any country at war…including Russia.
Very predictable. Resistance pecking away at small groups, train tracks and the like.
https://rense.com/general97/ex3.mp4 Khmelnitsky… perhaps.
It is a wonder that RU has not started carpet bombing. It is a wonder why RU has left the electric grid stand in Kiev. The general war of attrition of UKR/NATO’s men and resources continues. No reports of a submarine launch or a sub sinking, by any of the players.
My questions are what systems spoofed/jammed Russian electronics and what weapon systems brought down the helicopters and jets? I guess we’ll eventually find out.
Russia has allies behind NATO lines.
I hope she uses them. We share a common enemy.
p.s. Arch Bishop Carlos Maria Vigano has called all people of goodwill worldwide to form parallel structures to fight the globohomo evil.
And then there’s the question of Prigozhin, head of Wagner, having interactions with Ukrainian intelligence. What the heck is that about? And while he’s bad mouthing Putin and the Russian military. It came out in a Washington Post interview of coke face:
https://www.rt.com/russia/576285-wapo-zelensky-deleted-interview/
You start wondering what’s going on with Wagner. Why is Prigozhin meeting with GUR officers? Since Zelenskyy knows about it, the reason isn’t likely treason on the part of the Ukies. Not a good look. I may be old-fashioned, but I think wars, if you have to have one, should be fought with regular armies, not mercenaries.
Portland Ore Bishop Sample was with us today:
.
https://archdpdx.org/gender
Vigano on the global power grab:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/abp-vigano-globalists-have-a-single-script-to-establish-a-totalitarian-regime
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/11/no_author/abp-vigano-the-covid-pandemic-farce-served-as-a-trial-balloon-for-the-new-world-order/
https://hannenabintuherland.com/usa/archbishop-vigano-supports-trucker-convoy-stop-elite-new-world-order-tyranny/
The world would be greater served if Vigano were pope.
“The world would be greater served if Vigano were pope”
The world would be better served if the criminal Roman catholic Church was destroyed and it’s assets shared among the poor.
Russia will do nothing as always and will continue to fight this as a political war. In the beginning, I thought they were much stronger but now have some to the conclusion they do not have the will to fight a real war or more likely are very scared of any conflict with NATO. Probably good reason to be scared if you are Russia or China. Either way hope the death and destruction ends soon and it probably will when the Russian people throw out Putin for being so weak. Just my thoughts and there are always a lot of good comments on this site to consider. Thank you Larry for all of the timely and relevant updates.
You need to use “scared” and “weak” few more times. War and geopolitics are all about emotions and optics.
Hey, weren’t we told that Ukraine’s air defenses were kaput? At least that’s what we read in the leaked Pentagon papers. I guess that wasn’t exactly true, so was the leak a disinformation campaign?
Also, why is there still electric power anywhere inside Ukraine? Why are Kiev and Lvov not ghost towns? Just asking.
Why are you not on the frontline, ending this mess once an for all?
I heard Gonzalo Lira say one day, “Biden doesn’t know how to back down; he only knows how to double down.” I seriously doubt the UK acted on their own giving Storm Shadows to Ukraine. Martin Armstrong said several months ago, “if Ukraine is given the weapons, they will use them to attack Russia.” Attacking Luhansk, especially civilian targets, is essentially attacking Russia now that the people there voted to join Russia. Yes, escalation is the next logical step followed by more escalation and more escalation.
During the US/NATO unprovoked illegal war on Serbia, those outclassed Serbians managed to shoot down the pride of the US Air Force — an F117 Nighthawk, the first stealth aircraft.
It turned out that the US forces had failed to take the Serbians seriously. Since they were sure that Serbian radar could not pick up those stealth aircraft, they repeatedly used the same flight routes into Serbia to bomb whatever civilian target was on the list that day. The failure to keep changing flight paths left the F-117s vulnerable to attack.
One guess is that the Russian Air Force has just been given the same expensive lesson that the US Air Force got back then. Never get complacent! Sun Tzu told everyone that over a millennium ago.
F-117 had no chance. The mighty S-125 is capable of taking down even Tom Cruise himself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-125_Neva/Pechora
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nwBwJiyQ_g
My apologies for the misunderstanding Curt. I think we are on the same page here. After reading your post again, knee-jerk reaction, you are 200% correct.
Your scenario might come here soon.
As a veteran myself I am likewise happy for the current state of military recruitment.
Stay strong brother.
A declaration of war is inevitable.
And It will be said that Russia did everything possible to avoid it. Just as Russia attempted to avoid military intervention in Ukraine from 2014 until 2022.
Russia knows very well the beast resides in DC.
How is this aggression against the peoples of the world brought to a halt except to cut off the head of the beast.
Every sane person knows this to be true whether we like it or not is irrelevant
It’s is actually better for Russia to find this out now than later. There is a possibility to address weaknesses even though it comes as a price. Better one squadron than ten.
For my part I think UkriNATO jumped the gun here. Russia was getting more confident using air support and the flight frequency and depth was increasing. Surely better to lure the Russians in further in larger numbers and take our more planes at the time when an offensive is ready than show your hand now.
This was a brilliant attack, no idea how they did it, but it smacks of desperation a bit and it’s a waste as you let the Russians in on the game for a single squadron. Still it was impressive. And it is a deterrent and it will make Russia think twice about air attacks. Definitely buys time.
As for Russia attacking NATO by all accounts from experts in this area they simply don’t have enough in ammo and tech right now to do that. They need time to replace what they are using and put away a frigging heap for the war that is coming as NATO has substantial weaponry.
But yes as someone noted above, time to cut the electricity and rail. At least.
It’s also clear that the Russian elite are not all on the same page in relation to this war.
NATO if it attacks directly as it is now doing, may be looking for a strategy for a quick hyper aggressive win. Lord knows they’ve had enough time to test Russian defences. They also don’t think Russia will go nuclear and fancy themselves in a non nuclear fight. Their ops on Russian ships, pipes, people, mainland and now planes are probably more successful and consequence free than they expected. So why stop.
Russia has been increasing the ops tempo and boldness on air attacks now that Ukr AD is mostly gone.
I suspect the Ukrainians stood down their remaining AD and accumulated it somewhere waiting for an opportunity to take advantage of less cautious, more aggressive Russian air attacks. Indeed they may be playing Russia’s own game of retreating to draw out the vulnerable offensive.
The net is that it will reduce the optempo for the Russian air force while they figure out what happened and thus slow the Russian overall effort which would be powerfully increased by air supremacy.
It’s not surprising the Ukrainians managed a win given the targets are easier now, but the size of the win is impressive. They likely won’t do it again.
I agree with all above who believe that this “small” events will lead to WW3. I am taking in perspective Bible and description of world atmosphere before that devastating war that will eliminate 2/3 of population.Western elite are unable to move forward with their global New World Order as long as Russia is their bump on “their road to perdition”. Last Pope Benedict in his book revealed that entity known in Bible as Antichrist is born and that he is among us in his 20-ies.(born 2002)and he already pulling all strings in politics and economy. That is why so much evil and unclean events contrary to almost all religion dominating our life, media, politics ,business etc .If indeed Antichrist was born we are now in irreversible trajectory to complete fulfillment from Bible and strict timeline that can not be changed. As he approaching his 30-th age when his global ministry will start for 42 months (3,5 years) evil and destruction will just keep growing. God help us all….
“The Russian response to the NATO-backed escalation carries a significant risk of widening the war into a full blown war with NATO.”
It is war already and with each day NATO becomes more brazen while shamelessly denying direct involvement. Ukraine is the field of battle and Russia must destroy all infrastructures, depots and training centers preset in that field. ALL without distinction.
Larry,
Dear sir, Thanks for your wisdom !
This debate -presently under discussion-
between different ‘bloggers’, it’s actually a more philosophical and even metaphysical debate…
Certainly with certain shades and nuance of semantics… and OMG ! elements of epistemology to justify the oppositions…
Bravo and good for the comments!
At Harvard and Princeton they would be highly appreciated in the chair of ‘quantum’ Philosophy…
Unfortunately, this deep philosophy precedes the war. Then comes the act of war :
Always horrible, unpleasing, bloody, atrocious, and disgusting!
Now this war -between brothers- it is nothing more than a unpleasant, troublesome, awful and horrible
civil war !
Yesterday the Russians from Russia destroyed Ukrainian cannons and tanks and bombs…
And Today the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian air brigade…
Let’s say it again !
This is war !
This is not metaphysics or epistemological analysis about the human race!
The already well-armed forces of both NATO, Ukraine, Russia, are no longer going to back down or deescalate the formality of this war.
It is now a point of no return.
The River-kwai bridge has already been dynamited.
This is a nocturnal nightmare that we are living awake and we are helpless witnesses that inside the ‘lunatic asylum’ the CEO’s gently and orderly prepare our next last Hiroshima and Nagasaki !
– Play it once, Sam. For old times’ sake –
-Play it, Sam! –
– Play ‘As Time Goes By’ –
Is Prigozhin implying that it was the Russian AD that shot down the aircrafts? Its also possible. And it wasn’t the first time that friendly fire had shot down aircraft!
Francisco,
Well said…Very well said.
Blah, blah, blah. Russians get set up and take a hit. The response will be . . . business as usual.
The only escalation that means anything is taking Budjak in the south or Suvalsk in the north. Russia doesn’t have enough troops for either at present, so this is not in the cards.
Putin et al will want to keep things going until November 2024, and so they will.
Last I recall (I was draft age when Viet Nam was on, lucky enough to not “win” the draw), war is a dangerous, dirty business where people get hurt and killed, even on the winning side. On balance who’s killing the most of the other guys relative to their ability to replace is what counts (in Viet Nam we found out they could replace faster than we could kill, Ukraine is not so fortunate).
Not sure on Russia’s response as they seem to be keeping a significant force standing by “just in case” things get more expansive while a suitable force continues to clean up Ukraine. Along the way we can expect Ukraine to land a few punches as they get their ass kicked. That’s my take with no military expertise. Strategically it makes sense for Russia to hold back and build up capability to take on NATO full go, and it appears to be what they’re up to, emphasis on “appears.”
Those air assets where pretty high up for conventional manpads perhaps something more special was used…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SLAMRAAM you could break down and hump the components of this system into a position to create unpleasant surprises.
the most important event today is the Turkiye election. it is looking like another big win* for the CIA
Not a fan of this SMO type of warfare especially if opposing side maintains its ability to shell civilians in cities which it continues to do. Neither has Russia suffered “hundreds of thousands of dead” that’s ludicrous.
However Russia better step up their game and soon and end this once and for all.
No end in sight of the conflict. Didn’t unfold like Crimea, S. Ossetia , or Moldova/Transnistria for Russia. I don’t think there’s a road map for either party, except hang on like a pit bull. No plan Bs. No exit ramps. Germany didn’t freeze to death and buckle – far from it. No party wounded enough to suggest a cease-fire. Ukrainians who remain are acclimated to living in a war zone (reminds me of beirut) . This conflict is going to go on for a while, a long while, until there are enough dead and wounded that everyone is completely disgusted with themselves.
Looks to me like there are traitors in the russian military forces who are selling their country down the river in exchange for western promises .