Take a good look at this map. From Kherson in the south to Yanshulivka in the north covers a distance of approximately 1000 miles. That is akin to the distance from Washington, DC to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Or, to put it in European terms, that equates roughly to the distance between Paris, France and Warsaw, Poland. My point is simple — this is a huge amount of territory to cover in a ground war and requires both Ukraine and Russia to tackle the problem of where to deploy their respective troops, artillery and tanks.
One of the major problems Ukraine is struggling to solve is that its existing tank force has been degraded severely, which accounts for pleas from Ukrainian President Zelensky and General Zalushny for hundreds of replacement tanks from the West. Ukraine also is struggling to deal with its depleted troop strength and is forcibly “recruiting” conscripts as young as 16 and as old as 60. Ukraine faces the challenge of determining where to deploy its remaining forces in sufficient strength to blunt a Russian offensive.
Russia, by contrast, faces no such limitations. Russian factories continue to churn out new tanks to replace those lost in battle and has expanded its enlisted manpower by calling on reserves. Russia has one other advantage that it has exploited to great effect — i.e., it is able to train its forces in Russia in secure locations and equip them with the skills necessary to fight effectively on the battlefield. Ukraine does not. The replacements it has rounded up must be sent to NATO countries for training because Ukrainian military bases in Western Ukraine are vulnerable to Russian missile attacks.
The war in Ukraine is not confined to the steppes of Eastern Ukraine. It is being played out as a global drama pitting Russia against the United States and Europe. The coming week will some very bizarre and potentially consequential political theater. Vladimir Putin is scheduled to speak on Tuesday amid expectations that he will announce an expanded relationship with Belarus and acknowledge that Russia is at war with NATO. Putin could draw a bright red line warning NATO that if it sends more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine that Russia will act to protect itself.
On the same day, bumbling Joe Biden will show up in Warsaw for a speech that will not change Ukraine’s desperate situation and will likely further harden Russian resolve to seek victory on the battlefield rather than at the negotiation table. Biden is expected to plead with the Russian people to rid themselves of Putin. I am sure that will resonate with the Russian people (not!). Biden’s speech will not calm growing anxiety among NATO allies. The visual alone of a frail, demented Biden will play alongside the image of a calm but determined Putin.
Up to this point the Western strategy, under U.S. leadership, has included vilifying all things Russian and trying to punish the Russian people economically. There is a possibility that Biden will strike a more conciliatory tone in his speech towards the Russian people and try to shift the narrative that his is a war against Putin the tyrant, not the people of Russia. If he does that it will set off alarm bells in Ukraine. Zelensky and his crowd may interpret this as an early indicator that the U.S. is preparing to jettison them if the situation on the battlefield worsens for Ukraine.
If you have not seen Alexander Mercouris or Brian Berletic’s latest video casts on these issues I recommend them to you.
It’s irrelevant what Bidet says. What’s relevant is only whether NATO openly sends forces into Ukranazistan (Simplicius76 expects them to try and seize Odessa) or not, and whether Russia will act to stop them doing so, no matter what the risks, or not.
Seizing Odessa preemptively is a risky move (on either side) but it might be key to the long-term control of Crimea.
Therefore I see this escalation as more and more likely.
More guessing : Turkey might even greenlight Russia to do this in the context of a Syrian settlement that would secure Turkey’s southern border and end the US robbery of Syrian wheat and oil. No prophecy, only a possibility.
Awaiting tomorrow’s announcements.
Risky? Yes.
Necessary? From Russia’s perspective, since the US/UK plan is naval bases on the Black Sea, yes.
What can a naval base in Odessa accomplish exactly? The Black Sea doesn’t project into the heartland of Russia. And Russian fleets (barring subs) have always been defensive in nature.
Rumania, Bulgaria and (reluctant) Turkey are all NATO allies on the Black Sea with plenty of ports.
I can see the appeal from Russia’s perspective – cultural reunification, denying sea access, land connection to the Russians in Moldova. The only interest from a USA/UK would be to deny those goals.
It has nothing to do with Crimea. Odessa is the site of a planned NATO base to build up Ukraine again. Russia took the entire Azov coast. If they take all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast the war is over and Russia wins a decisive victory. Simplicius76 goes over this well in one of his posts. If the US puts the 101st airborne in Odessa it is a massive escalation.
It has nothing to do with Crimea.
It had EVERYTHING to do with Crimea in 2014 and why we’re here today, staring down the barrel of WWIII.
The failed Yushchenko US puppet had announced that his intent was to not renew Russia’s lease and evict the Black Sea Fleet in 2017, which led to Russia’s efforts to renew the lease for 40 yrs under Yanukovych.
Nuland and company took up the challenge leading to 2014 and the entire fiasco that followed. If you don’t think that the main impetus for US support of Ukraine then was to complete the task, plant NATO into Crimea and turn the entire Black Sea into a NATO lake, I’ve got a bridge over troubled waters to sell you.
RE: Bumbling Bush and his Georgia and Ukraine in NATO blather, look at a map. It would have effectively completed the US takeover of the Black Sea to a T, trapping Russia into an inconsequential Novorossysk enclave, something their historical memory would never allow to happen.
Know what’s going on.
If Russia really does jump off a successful major offensive (I still have some doubts – 60% probability that they will do some form of that), then the US and Poland will most definitely put combat troops and lots of major weapons systems in Odessa. Of that I have no doubt. The US and Poland will even likely establish “no fly zones” (or try to) and have troops all over Western Ukraine. Then we will see what Russia’s next move will be. 50/50 that Russia backs down and settles on a DMZ along the Dneiper type solution. If Putin leaves office, then the next guy’s administration will attack the US/Polish forces in Odessa with a significantly higher probability.
If Russia jumps off an offensive, and it falters, then for sure Ukraine + Polish and US will counter attack and push to Crimea. Yes, the US has been enraged by the “loss” of Crimea since it happened.
Whether its Odessa or Crimea that will be the focus of the war and the trigger to WW3 depends on how the Russian offense develops (assuming there even is one). All of those Russian troops built up in reserves could be for no other purpose than to judiciously reinforce the current front, as needed and as a reaction force if/when the Polish and US move in to assist with a Ukrainian push on Kiev – not for a big offense.
er – assist with a push on push on Crimea (not Kiev)
interesting fantasy you got here , where is this data that support this fantasy ? so far i saw your post degrade from normal posts and into ‘murica f yeah’ nonsense
How long would it take for the US to move “major weapons systems” to Europe? A year? Eleven months, maybe? This isn’t a movie. The 4,000 101st Airborne troops currently in Romania couldn’t hold off the Russians.
Sentient,
They’re already there, for the most part
Also, the Ukrainian arm is wiped out, isn’t it? 200,000 dead or more. Down to a few old men and teenagers from off the street, yet Russia can’t hardly advance. So yeah, I think 150,000 Polish + US troops and their weapons systems (much already in Poland) could make a big difference.
As for “America fuck yeah”, I guess anything short of pissing on my country and, worshipping your crap hole of origin, falls short in your book. Why are you even in the states? Tell your spy master that you have learned that some Americans are still patriotic despite problems with their leadership.
I think that Russia won’t stop until they have achieved their goals for their own security. What that entails will be determined by the Russian general staff, and none of are or ever will be in on their plans. We will find out what happens after it happens. But I don’t think that the Russians will ever reveal what their thinking was or what strategy they are planning. They have refused to reveal to the rest of the world exactly what happened on the eastern front in WWII. Smart move on their part. It reminds me of a scene in The Godfather, after a meeting with a rival, where Don Corleone scolded Sonny, telling him to never let anyone outside the family know what you’re thinking.
Moscow’s War Aims were outlined in their comprehensive peace treaty proposed on Dec 2021.
I wasn’t referring to the aims themselves, but to the methods for achieving them. Sorry if I failed to make that clear.
I have no doubt that Russia will take all of southern Ukraine and Transnistria, how far north Russia goes into Ukraine is up for debate. Putin would be foolish to let Odessa stay in the hands of what is left of Ukraine…the west would only build a naval base on it and Russia will not stand for that.
I consider Odessa to be one of the “red lines” that Russia will not let be crossed. Should the West attempt a siege on Odessa, I would expect Odessa to be completely surrounded by Russian military and the Western occupants be offered two choices. Leave or die.
The Russian population of Odessa, and the Russian population as a whole in Russia would not look favorably upon Putin if he gave up Odessa.
The West has already conducted a ‘siege’ on Odessa, by proxy long ago.
Behold Goncharenko, one of the protagonists in the herding of anti-Maidan protesters into Odessa’s trade building, setting it on fire and burning and beating dozens of them to death in 2014.
And behold Pelosi, accepting a bracelet from him crafted from spent bullet casings while gleaming with delight.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpWYmRWX0AIF9KX?format=jpg&name=large
We are a sick nation. Have we truly descended into the inescapable labyrinth of active state sponsors of terrorism? Is there truly no exit from this madness outside of a nuclear holocaust? The facts would seem to speak for themselves.
I think Russia is preparing to strike NATO on its own soil now, and is just waiting for a provocation to act.
Interesting timing, sending Biden to Poland… now.
…the fact that Biden will be literally right next door on the potential day/eve of a massive offensive launch (which could include huge airstrikes only a few kilometers away from him) seems almost pre-calculated for escalation. — Simplicius The Thinker
Globally considering US political, economic and financial circumstances, I’ve long considered Biden a sacrificial scapegoat for the Deep State. Right now, the US needs an official martyr more than a demented President.
Possible as a lot of people would like to see him gone(even dems as they have someone else in sight for potus 2024).
Even lot of ukrainians would also enjoy ZE gone forever.
BREAKING:
Chinese Foreign Minister and Head of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Arrived in Moscow.
His visit was NOT expected, maybe he has some fresh news or intel on next crazy neocons move?
Tomorrow promises to be a very interesting day indeed.
Biden in Kiev this morning…
So Biden in Kiev… frontrunning Putin’s speech. What could go wrong?
Or rather: What, Me Worry? (h/t Mad Magazine)
NatoiStan
If you want to alert your partner of upcoming actions without SigInt possibility of intercept, in person is the way to do so (happened before the SMO).
That thought occurred to me, too. Eliminate burden biden & gain pretext for direct attack on Russia.
Biden, like Zelensky before him, received assurances from the Russians that he wouldn’t be targeted.
It seems the West is willing to accept Russian assurances while incapable of issuing any such things of its own.
After the betrayals at the negotiating table it seems all current and future negotiations are in the battle space, barring regime change in the west. After seeing John Titus of “Best Evidence” most recent “Klown & the Gang’s Apocalypse Derby” it’s apparent that the TBTF are insolvent, so in my opinion it’s all about escalation. It’s a transition to a war economy, rationing (money is irrelevant when the shelves are near empty) and press ganging people into uniforms (or jobs at munitions factories)
Not to dispute your general sense of the situation but what does transitioning to a war economy mean in the West today?
The last time it happened, a large proportion of the population worked in manufacturing, or at least with their hands, and there were a great many skilled tradesmen. That is no longer the case. Just an enormous number of paper shufflers and “knowledge workers”, waiters and bar tenders. Exactly what use will most of them be for a war economy?
Also, the last time there were a huge number of factories many of which could be repurposed to war production (including things as mundane as making uniforms and boots). Now most of them are in China, so new factories would need to be built, despite the lack of large numbers of craftsmen to contribute in both the building and operation.
In addition, the population was younger, proportionately.
The controllers of the West, busy lining their own pockets, have rendered it almost incapable of mobilizing for, or fighting, a war against major powers.
It is not only that, in WI and WWII, technology was much more primitive, so it could be more easily scaled.
These days, most things are made with nanometer precision (i.e. just more hands will not work, you need precise machinery for it, since there is a big difference in manufacturing precision for both guns and shells when gun has a range of 5km in WWII and range of 30km these days) and even include semicondutors, hardware and software which requires highly skilled workforce that cannot be trained in the matter of months but likely requires years to be properly trained.
Ofcourse, they could revert back to making old school guns, or invent some simpler tech weaponry that are easier to scale, but those things would be way less precise and potent, and even to get to those, they need way more time then they currently have available to save the project UKR
The British Army has a saying, not much of anything else these days, but an old school saying from the bygone era when we won wars and we picked who we fought rather than as today directed by the Whitehouse. “Perfect Prior Professional Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance”. The 9Ps take time and foresight, NATO doesnt have either so the final 3Ps are inevitable.
This unfortunate state of affairs needs to be acknowledged and further bellicose nonsense avoided until we in NATO find our true stations in the real world. it is not a good idea to try to avoid that reality by both pretence and by sponsoring the deaths of so many Ukrainian men
Even the primitive stuff requires equipment that is no longer readily available.
One of my clients has a massive milling machine that was made in Russia in the 1950’s. Why? Because no one makes anything that big anymore except China and Russia and they ain’t sharing anymore.
That old mill makes large pump bodies, but could be reconfigured to make gun turrets with some effort. The new stuff? Fergeddaboudit
RUssia will share. When the USA people rise up and overthrow their nazi reich regime.
I do think they will eventually. We have to show ourselves worthy first though.
workforce that cannot be trained in the matter of months but likely requires years to be properly trained.
I used to drive by the Watervliet Arsenal a few times a month on 787, where during WWII they manufactured, and still do, most of the cannon tubes and artillery. Watervliet, like Troy across the Hudson, is a past its prime old factory town.
A stone’s throw from the arsenal I once noticed a Ukrainian social club in one of the ubiquitous run down tenements there. Maybe they could recruit from there?
You are spot on. The existing factories have trouble today getting employees with the necessary skills to run and maintain the machines they already have.
Go in any American factory today and you will find equipment from Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Denmark, Hungary, Japan, Korea, Australia, even France. Why? Because in many cases you cannot get these things US sourced. Even the quintessential American electrical equipment company Allen Bradley makes half their shit in China!
Building new factories from scratch will take years possibly decades.
In the past, local factories has large machine tools, foundries that could be repurposed. Today even auto plant could not be reconfigured to make an airplane or a tank. The machinery and equipment is too specialized.
Plus you don’t just write a check for $1billion and tell someone to build a factory.
I was involved in the building of a new brewery. It took 5 years and that was using a design copied from an existing one with very minor changes.
Its a cascade, to build it you need machinery, motors, actuators, air compressors, pipe, fittings, wire and cable, sensors, PLC’s, VFD’s, forklifts, rail access, environmental controls, packaging equipment, the list is very much longer than that.
You don’t just squat and shit all that stuff, making and supplying all that is as complex as the end use.
Then of course you need engineers, real actual engineers who know how to build stuff. Try hiring today ibe good metallurgist, mechanical or chemical engineer today. How about an engineer that can design and implement a 7 axis servo. They will need thousands, maybe tens of thousands.
BUILD MORE FACTORIES!!
Good luck with that.
You can print money. You cannot print finished goods and raw resources. And America is ONLY a printing press. And a now hollowed out military. I am a gun guy, and fortunate to have a very close relationship with a old and established SOT gunsmithing shop. The owner is a master machinist. You can tell him to make something. And he will do it. The new machinists? They are button pushers on CNC machines. You hand them a piece of stock and tell them to make something off a coffee coaster drawing? They laugh at you.
The good ones are very scarce and dying off rapidly.
They typically are not retiring because the companies will pay them ridiculous amounts of money to keep them working.
They usually just fail to show up one day.
One company had one master machinist die in car after his shift. But he was vaxxed to the max.
You wouldn’t believe the quality ( well you probably would) of the lunkheads applying for jobs calling themselves “machinists”
We had one really good one. 28 years old; Miklos- He was from Hungary. Strongest kid I ever met. He could squeeze a pair of Klien electricians pliers until they snapped. He could make anything and it would be beautiful.
On another note. I worked with an old German guy many years ago. His name was Ernst.
He was a machinist at the La Rochelle submarine base in France in the war.
When the Germans bugged out he fell off a gang plank into the drydock and broke his leg and they left him behind. He ended up on a farm in Georgia working as a POW. After the war the family sponsored him.
The man was an artist in metal. You didn’t even need a coaster for a drawing. Just describe you general idea and he would take it from there. It was best not to tell him too much because he would always come up with something better.
Oh the stories he used to tell! I used to joke about him marching in the Veterans Day parade.
I just bought some Dodge Industrial Bearings. No longer “made in USA”. Now just in a plain box without a country of origin.
1. Clue #1. Dodge now owned by “RBC Corporation”, which used to be Ringball, all made in China.
2. Clue #2. The only country so ashamed of their name that they can’t put their name onto their products and will go out their way to trick you into thinking you are buying something from another country ? China.
The same U.S. criminals fomenting war in the Ukraine and drumming up a direct war with Russia, are the very same people that destroyed the USA’s industrial engine.
How sick is that ?
There is a book called Poorly Made in China.
If you want to get an insider view, it is written by a former export agent for Chinese companies.
Some eye opening stuff in there.
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/poorly-made-in-china-paul-midler/1100320066?ean=9780470928073
“…Go in any American factory today and you will find equipment from Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Denmark, Hungary, Japan, Korea, Australia, even France. ..”
I go into factories today and find WORKERS from Somalia, Afghanistan, Honduras, Haiti, and West Africa. Its fine for sewing clothes or making tomato sauce, but manufacturing F-35s?
Exactly my point. The low end labor is everywhere.
I have one client that hand stacks boxes on pallets because they cannot find anyone smart enough to operate a palletizer. Of course one of the reasons is they won’t pay what the skilled operator is worth.
Its cheaper to have 3 lunkheads hand stack at $7/hr than the $35/hr + benefits for the skills one.
American MBA’s in action.
I showed how a palletizer will pay for itself in 18 months, but hey he gets 6 quarterly bonus checks in that time so who gives a shit?
Don’t know if anyone is familiar with the work of the late Seymour Melman, who was a professor of industrial engineering and I believe a physicist by training. For the entire last half of the 20th century, he warned that the US industrial base was in decline, and he blamed several factors, two of which were financialization of the economy and the DOJ cost-plus procurement model. Also, the idea that you could pay workers less to save money and you could somehow continue to produce the same quality products.
On a related note, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) says that a country that has sovereign currency like the US can never run out of money. Many have misinterpreted that to mean that the US can never run out of stuff, but MMT’s deeper implication is that you ALSO need a manufacturing and resource base to keep up with all that money you print, or else you’ll get inflation.
They remember the good part – unlimited money but conveniently forget the 2nd part.
Like the Keynsians, Keynes said that there are times when running a deficit is advantageous but eventually you have to run a surplus to pay for it.
They are all over the former and pretend they never heard of the latter.
Evidently there are plenty of knowledge workers that have the skills necessary to fire up anti Russian and anti Chinese sentiment to fever pitch. The prophet Orwell described this situation well in 1984. Only a few hours after Bl*nken warned China not to send another balloon to intimidate the US, there are reports of another balloon over Hawaii at an undetermined altitude between 40 and 50 K. No more information. Just enough to fire up a few people that are scared easily by $12 balloons. And we have not been told yet what was in the first one that was shot down.
Russia stated two war goals:
De Nazification of the Ukraine and get rid of the NATO threat close to its borders.
Tell me a way to achieve the latter goal without WW3?
Hoping that the NATO will fall apart is in vain. Except for Turkey, the NATO is the USA.
What does Putin expect negotiations? Is he so stupid?
There will be no security for Russia as long as the NATO exists.
And if you think that a failing economy will kill the NATO, you are completely wrong. It may weaken it. But not kill.
There is no way out for Russia. Either Russia will die or the NATO.
Well since you put it like that; NATO will die.
And all the reasons we know this will happen have been repeated ad nauseam.
My guess is he wants the Dneiper river between NATO forces and Moscow, he wants the Black Sea to be a Russian lake and he wants Turkey to become a Russian ally. Not ideal or a Warsaw Pact equilivent but with the Dneiper as a natural barrier and Belarus in safe hands NATO is restricted to a narrow front in Estonia and Latvia. He wants NATO missiles out of Romania and Poland but I think he can live with them by putting Washington, Berlin and London under threat of hypersonic missiles … attack Moscow or St. Petes and lose Washington / London MAD style.
Freudian slip alert
Bidet is very likely to pronounce ‘Dneiper’ as diaper in one of his speeches.
One could have a lot of fun if we could hack his teleprompter.
Throughout the West, there is still a pervasive belief that the Western military is superior to all others in the world. At present, however, the exact opposite is being revealed to the world. Even among the well-informed, there is this image that the US army can crush anything that stands in its way.
People, wake up! Those times are over. As soon as the fighting in Ukraine is over, Russia will dictate its terms to the West. And that includes returning NATO to its 1997 borders. And the West won’t be able to do ANYTHING about it.
At the beginning of the SMO I couldn’t quite believe that either, but now the picture is becoming clearer and clearer.
I agree. Too much bloodshed for Russia to negotiate anything less. The 1997 NATO borders will be agreed upon by the west or Russia will do it for them.
I agree Otto. This is the end of the end of history. I think military might and the U.S. dollar go hand in hand. I think Russia and China can continue to do what they are doing with trade and economic development across the world island and wait for the resulting dollar weakness to weaken us militarily.
We have military might in part because we can inflate the money supply to spend hundreds of billions in “defense” and export a lot of that inflation overseas, because countries have needed dollars to conduct trade. Then we used that might to push other countries around, including those that thought about no longer using the dollar (e.g., Saddam in the early 2000s, Ghaddafi in the late 2000s/early 2010s).
But now Russia, China, and Iran are leading the way in de-dollarization, and our act of seizing $300B of Russia’s foreign currency reserves taught a lot of the world that using the dollar comes with risk if you ever think about not kowtowing to the U.S.’ demands. De-dollarization includes using their own currencies to conduct trade, bartering, potentially trading in some BRICS alternative to the Special Drawing Right (SDR) or in cryptocurrency, and buying gold. Pepe Escobar has certainly been chronicling this for the last year or more (see his Telegram channel).
So all these dollars are going to come home like chickens to roost. Countries will give them back to us in return for real things and then these dollars will bid up prices. The delayed inflationary effect that printing these dollars would have had were they not exported will hit us over the coming years. $838B “defense” budgets won’t buy as many wunderwaffen and will hopefully be harder and harder to justify to the citizenry.
Yes, the Chinese are done with paying for the US’s excesses.
Washington has no Plan B. Print more money, sell more bonds.
People often think that 800B US military budget gives a lot of resources to be used, however, they don’t understand that:
– West tech is completely overpriced – RU can produce 300 T90 for less then 300M, while for that money US could by maybe 50 Abrams, likely even way less? Is Abrams better – I personally don’t think so, but even if it is, is it 6x better? How about 10-20x better?
The best example of this overprice nonsense was Zumwalt ship where I remember seeing some video explaining how they had idea to park Zumwalt on shore and lob 800k a piece guided and rocket assisted shells 70km from the shore, and that person then commented that it is a “great way” to spend 1B per HOUR of combat per ship, which was the reason why they decided to use shorter range shells that were somewhat cheaper but had half the range…
– US has 800 bases all over the world – do people think that those bases are cheap? Those bases need logisitical support that is able to be scaled up in order to accommodate bringing up of troops if needed, so lets just imagine that each base takes just 10M a month of salaries (200 x 5k salaries would be that so it easily much much more), a weaponry, ammunition, equipment maintenance, provisions, local contacts, corruption, (and way more if they go on patrols) etc. it makes it 800 x 10 x 12 which is an absolute minimum of close to 100B, and much more likely, just having all those bases is wasting lion’s share of this seemingly “unlimited” budget.
If you are still not sure, how about having a base in the middle of nowhere? What do you think that costs? just giving people leave to go to town for some R&R or providing all town amenities in the base would mean considerable expense, not to mention even simple things like fuel, food, etc getting brought on regular basis over large distances by helis/planes, etc…
One of the reason why many countries (like Poland) want to have US bases on their territory is exactly because that manes having thousands of permanent tourists and huge amount of provisioning/supply business that would be offered to handle them
Very accurate portrayal of the present and the near future. Thank you for making it so clear.
“So all these dollars are going to come home like chickens to roost. Countries will give them back to us in return for real things and then these dollars will bid up prices. The delayed inflationary effect that printing these dollars would have had were they not exported will hit us over the coming years. “
I must admit that I don’t understand how this all works. We run huge trade deficits, which means foreign counties receive large amounts of dollars. What do they do with these dollars? They buy farm products, energy, and weapons from the West. They buy US debt, which pays interests in US dollars. They buy US real estate and properties.
The US can outlaw foreign countries from owning US real estate. Owning US debt is just like holding an IOU and can be confiscated if the you piss off the US. Buying US products is the thing that a foreign county gets value from for its dollars. Many of the things the US sells is just intellectual property though and has no utility value. In other words, one can live without it; it’s just stuff to kill boredom.
Wish I understood it all much better.
Yes, indeed, LAIDBACK GUY, this push to eliminate the PETRO$ as a reserve currency by the Global South, the BRICS countries, the SCO countries (because our government has proven that they can’t be trusted to keep their hands off the deposits of foreign sovereign countries) if successful, may leave us holding the bag on $31Trillion + debt sooner than expected.
The Global South/BRICS/SCO is determined to find ways to pay for energy with their own currencies, instead of via PETRO$. So if Bidet continues to ignore the mounting debt throwing $billions down the black hole of Ukraine while PETRO$ deposits of foreign sovereign countries shrink, who will buy our TSY bonds to postpone the day of reckoning on our debt?
Interest rates should skyrocket I suppose…..
I’m no economist….just wondering….
evelync,
The debt will never be paid back. It’s too far gone. Social security and Medicare/Medicaid will not continue for very long in their current form.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/social-security-is-a-huge-problem-blaming-republicans-wont-solve-the-crisis
You don’t have to be an economist to understand this stuff. In fact, you don’t want to be one, as most of them subscribe to Keynes’ view of the world and are therefore morons. It’s not hard to acquire the knowledge. Just takes time and repetition to build the muscle. Here are a few blogs and other websites that will send free daily emails:
mishtalk.com
internationalman.com
sovereignman.com
dailyreckoning.com
https://baerlocherbearing.substack.com/
mises.org
I do believe that the U.S. military is arguably superior to the Russians. But in a war in Ukraine it has a lot of inherent disadvantages. First, is how is it going to get there? We built up our forces for months in the Iraqi invasions. Will Russia just sit back and not use its cyber assets, its air and naval assets, it’s anti-satellite assets, and it’s hypersonics while the U.S. amassed enough troops to do some good? I wouldn’t let the U.S. do that if I were in charge.
If the U.S. does get the troops and somehow pushes Russia out of Ukraine, then what? You’re 450 miles from Moscow with a huge and very pissed off country. Are we going to be in perpetual war with Russia for the next 100 years?
What will China do while the U.S. is directly involved against the Russians? Will it invade Taiwan? Will is sell Russia all the weapons it can use? Will it retaliate economically? Will it turn loose North Korea?
If you lined up an equal number of American personnel and an equal number of Russians with all their attendant equipment, the U.S. is superior. But not by as much as some think and of course, war is a lot more complicated than that. “Inferior” forces have won wars throughout history because of these complications. I think Putin has done a good job over the last twenty years in concentrating on areas where Russia can find an actual advantage and superiority for much less money than trying to build up conventional forces large enough and well equipped enough to win a Cold War style invasion of Europe. Hypersonics come to mind.
There would have to be a precipitous historic event that would allow any sane elements in us govt to cut off ukes supply and make clear and convincing westward moves in order to negotiate a dnieper border between ukes and rus. Yes 1997 nato to have buffer neither rus nor nato. Easier said than done obviously.
“What does Putin expect negotiations? Is he so stupid?”
——-
There’s a certain value to going theough the appropriate motions.
The Soviets were punctilious about abiding by their agreements after WW2: If you dig into the history of the Korean and the Vietnam wars, you find it was the US that freaked out in both cases and went their own way in creating separate states controlled by “its guys.” The Soviets were quite prepared to go for peninsula-wide elections in Korea because they knew their guys would win, by hook or by crook. The Soviets will likely be treated better in history than the US, if only because it won’t be the West writing histories a hundred years from now.
Russia goes through the motions while trying to defend its sovereignty against aggression from the decadent West, the West digs in to support Nazis to spread Western decadence, and history will tell us who the bad guys really were in 2022.
NATO is already falling apart. Read the articles in their entirety in the Western media, not just the headlines or ledes. The “leaders” of NATO promise a lot but end up giving very little. Why? Because they’ve nothing left to give, and that includes the US. What NATO really is and what its politicians THINK it is are two very different things.
i dont understand this stupid mindset given that history shown russia suffered so many disasters and yet bounced and kept getting stronger.. better armed and better led miilitary like the french and the germans failed to conquer russia and yet today’s weaklings in US and EU will be perceived as the most dangerous enemy to russia and able to kill russia?
i suggest reading history , real history not some nonsense written by delusional british authors like bevoor who love germans
Russia only suffered disasters because they did stupid stuff that backfired and have periods of general screwed-up-ness. i.e. Russians are human and subject to human failings – sometimes massively – and are not the supermen gods you enjoy in your fantasies of them. Same with the Chinese.
A transition to a war footing will be interesting to watch, as the woke 18-25 group flying Uke flags is called upon to actually fight. While the 18-25 group on the right that can see through all this bullcrap for what it is will want no part of following a Nikki Haley or Pompeo into battle. If Trump were smart he’d number 1 not mention the vaccine ever again; number 2 declare no more money for Ukraine; number 3 announce that Russia is NOT the number one concern of Americans, number 4 redirect attention to the many other problems at home. Of course the deep state MIC will go underground to subvert him should he win reelection, but they’re gonna do that anyway.
50,000 demo for Peace in Munich on Sunday
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6eTGf6OR_yU
reports from the organising committee say there were “at least 10`000 participants” at the munich rally: still a lot of work to do to mobilise 50`000, but they`re definitely off to a good start.
Who in their right mind would negotiate anything with the US, or even believe a word they say?
The latest: after sending billions in weapons to Taiwan, the US is “drawing a red line” for China not to send any military aid to Russia.
As if Russia needs weapons from China. Gas lighting and projection at its infantile worst!
“Putin is expected to plead with the American people to rid themselves of Biden.” Reads better, given the polling numbers of the respective political leaders.
I suspect that this week in Ohio and states downstream, one might find a fair percentage in favour of Vlad the Invader’s plea.
I read on RT, UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace, sounding like Old Mother Hubbard complaining of their clapped out tanks that are unfit for combat:
Wallace went on to say that similar issues apply to ammunition. “In terms of ammunition stocks, too, we found that our peacetime plans were not sufficient. We didn’t count on a real war, so the target numbers for the ammunition were too low,” he said.
Didn’t count on a real war? What kind of war have you been “counting on” since 2014?
The West it seems, is not merely out of artillery shells, but the arsenals are devoid of silver bullets too.
https://www.rt.com/news/571726-uk-lack-tanks-ukraine/
The only war they were counting on was one against the native British population, especially those evil Brexiters.
And speaking of wars against one’s population the ADF website has posted a story of Australian soldiers conducting training drills on how to combat rioting civilians (a police role).
The same scum that patrolled Sydney streets with treasonous cops enforcing the illegal lock downs (mass home detentions).
If Russia does not prevail the countries of the “west”, the WEF sellouts, will go full retard on all of us.
Yes, NSW – the original and best penal colony in Australia, with the same-old same-old Rum Corps enforcing the joint – the best police force money can buy. If the ADF are training as you describe, it won’t be the first time the military has been used against the populace of NSW.
If those pesky rooskies throw a nuke at the Big Smoke, it’ll take out the posh end of town, maybe we’ll have a blast in my neighbourhood lol.
Here it is mate https://www.defence.gov.au/news-events/news/2023-02-17/soldiers-train-deal-protesters
you aussies gave up your guns.What did you think would happen?
Interesting note about the Ohio train debacle. In Russia, if your a CEO and your company seriously pollutes the environment, you don’t get your company fined, you go to jail.
In China, your family pays for your bullet.
RUSSIA COMMENCES NUCLEAR ATTACK DRILL; NATO WARNS OF ATTACK IF THEY PERCEIVE RUSSIAN ACTUAL ATTACK!
Russia, on Sunday, began large-scale exercises of its strategic nuclear forces, on the eve of Biden’s visit to Europe.
The exercises include large-scale maneuvers for its strategic nuclear forces.
Meanwhile, the White House has told Zelenskyy to prepare for a major Russian offensive now!
There are “no plans” for President Biden to enter Ukraine during his upcoming trip to Poland, NSC spokesman John Kirby said Sunday. HOWEVER . . . .
Biden will address the citizens of Russia and Putin, during his visit to Poland on February 21 according to John Kirby
As of today, Russia has 5977 nuclear warheads; the most in the world. They also have the most advanced nuclear missile technology in the world.
NATO has said if they see activity of Russian nuclear forces that could possibly be preparation to launch a nuclear attack, NATO will attack Russian nuclear forces ( with conventional weapons), it was said.
SARMAT?
Russia President Vladimir Putin is testing his hypersonic “SARMAT” missile and officials in remote districts in eastern Russia have been warned to be ready for a test launch between February 15 and 25
The giant 208-ton hypersonic missile is capable of carrying FIFTEEN individual nuclear warheads including Russia’s new Hypersonic “Glide” Vehicles which cannot be stopped by any missile defense presently on earth.
Unusual Flights
As this story is written at 8:36 PM eastern US time Sunday night, there are unusual flights circling over Poland of RC-135W Rivet Joint (electronic surveillance), and Boeing E-3B Sentry (Airborne early warning and control) aircraft accompanied by KC-135T Stratotanker for refueling.
It’s unusual because they very rarely fly at night over Europe, almost never.
I can also report a nuclear armed submarine has been placed on the ‘highest level’ of combat readiness and that strategic bombers have been moved to a base in Tambov, Russia.
In a normal, rational, world, these Nuclear exercises would send a clear message. But in OUR world, this message will likely be laughed off by Biden. He doesn’t seem to care.
In fact, I think Biden wouldn’t understand a nuke being dropped on his head. In my view, he’s so addled by Dementia, he’s barely conscious.
At this point, I don’t think anything can halt what is coming.
It is not about occupation it is about survival for Russia, NATO has made it clear they intend on crushing them and dividing it up into regions and exploit their natural resources. Russia is telling them to back the fuck up.
We are closer to WWIII today than we’ve ever been. This time, if nations continue down this road, there will be full blown world war.
Are we ready for that? Rationing? The threat of invasion? Bombings? Military policing? Internment camps? Bread lines? Hunger? Famine? Mass depopulation?
We can barely keep the supply chain going post-Covid. A world war?
Our government needs to let this Ukraine thing go. They, however, will not.
The one thing that bothers me about Biden’s trip to Poland . . . . what if it turns into an “Arch Duke Ferdinand” moment?
What if the US “Deep State” plans to kill Biden while he’s in Poland, and blame Russia?
Kamala Harris becomes President, and off to war we all go.
This week is likely to be historic. I hope you are all prepared as best you can be with emergency food, water, medicine, communications gear, etc.
From this site, a bit conspiracy, but sometime he has good intel.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-commences-nuclear-attack-drill-nato-warns-of-attack-if-they-perceive-russian-actual-attack
The Ukrainian telegram channel “Typical Odessa” reports that several barrels with strange suspicious contents were delivered to the Odessa port (Ilyichevsk); people became ill when they came into contact with the barrels.
https://t.me/odessa_typical/25690
https://t.me/odessa_typical/25700
“So, radiation cargo.
One of the further options for the development of events:
– a staging is being created using a nuclear explosion on the territory of Ukraine, which is presented in the information field as a kind of aggression on the part of the Russian Federation. The following locations can be used as a territory for application:
– exclusion zone around Chernobyl (already, so to speak, a ready landfill)
– the area of the “scorched earth” of Donbass – (a minimum of people, everything is destroyed and there are few water resources before pollution) – this is the most likely option;
– some large Russian city with a million people Kharkiv, Odessa (to create maximum media effect).”
https://t.me/odessa_typical/25710
Agree mostly but Putin will probably back down.. I mean why would West fear Putin? Putin kept calling them partners until Decemeber and still sells them gas as they try and strangle Russia economically and call him every name in the book. Dozens of red lines crossed and direct acts of war like pipeline blown and no reply.
I think they may have assessed he’s not willing to go all the way. I hope they are right.
More I think about it I don’t fear WW3. Putin will back down. Remember when Putin said explicitly at the start of the SMO back in Feb 24 that if any other country attempts to interfere, then Russia will strike them directly as party to the conflict?
Yeah, right… 100s of billions weapons, targeting ISR the whole time, blowing pipelines… and we now have the President of the US strolling around in the territory of the “SMO”.
US intelligence/psychologists correctly predicted Putin would quit IMO
I’d prefer Putin stood up to them and Ushered in multipolar world but he’s not that guy.
I’m not too sure about that.
He is the “quiet” type. Willing to put up with a lot of shit but with a limit. Once that limit is reached it will be at a point where no reasonable person would blame him.
Putin will not back down. Base your reasoning on this fact. Putin is not alone. Behind him stands the nation of Russians. Putin will leave, Putin-2 will come in his place.
The only thing I take from this is Kirby’s assertion that Poopypants won’t go to Ukraine. That was a lie just like Kirby’s assertion that the US didn’t blow up Nordstream. As President Putin said, the US is the Empire of Lies.
Nuclear war maybe, but not WW3.
WW3 would be the west against the rest.
The west is already out of ammunition and would be facing China and Russia.
It would be over before it starts.
Both videos are excellent. Alexander is one of my main sources daily. I also follow Brain and his take a lot. Their perception of reality has an excellent track record.
President Biden ………… is a goof ball. He will fudge it up is my bet.
something is certain that will happen from February 21, as Larry said, perhaps the much-announced Russian offensive is already underway in its initial phase, in the network and telegram there are reports of large accumulations of troops and equipment near the provinces of Sumy and Kharkov, new field hospitals in other areas, an 80 kilometer convoy of vehicles between Mariupol and Berdiansk is reported, on the 22nd the Duma convenes an extraordinary session, all indications that something will happen, this will be the window of how long should russia spend before the next military aid package materializes? How will Russia have the offensive? What do you think Larry?
Orban‘s annual state of the nation Speech ( worth close reading )
https://miniszterelnok.hu/en/prime-minister-viktor-orbans-state-of-the-nation-address-2023-02-18/
I just chewed it in full with a lot of interest.
Thanks for this link.
Thank-you. Explains that NATO believes it can outlast Russia
and defeat on battlefield and Putin keeps saying this is a long conflict and Russia will prevail. I keep thinking of how crazy it would be if US had to go back to a draft. It would be recent arrivals(latinos) being called on. Not likely but what division that would create under the Obama/Biden prism of viewing the US. Rich whites and black leadership looking to exempt their favs. Ugly, divisive.
Personally feel any attack on US mainland would turn country into total shtshow. Media would say it is done, Russia is going to be crushed and the American ingrates would romp through streets to get their fill of Samsung, Nikes, Jennifers and Isabels.
The West and NATO are totally doomed in their lies and contradictions. They constantly repeat that “Putin is not ready for peace”, and then to Russian proposals for negotiations, Western leaders reply that “it is not the time for negotiations”. Instead of negotiating with the Russians, NATO sends new weapons and forces the poor Ukrainians into a “counter-offensive”. They know how the Ukrainian offensives ended where the Russians did not retreat in an organized manner (Kherson) or kept numerically inferior reservists on the battle line (Kharkiv). I remind you that during August and September last year, the Ukrainians suffered terrible losses in unsuccessful attacks on Kherson. It seems that NATO will not stop until it demographically exterminates the Ukrainians just to weaken Russia. And then NATO will find some “new Ukrainians” in Eastern Europe.
So Mutton Head Milley says “Russia has lost, strategically operationally and tactically, and in the very next breath says “but until Putin ends his war of aggression, we will continue to support Ukraine” so which is Mutant Mark? this is almost as good as 360 Baerbock 😂🙄
That one throws oneself into the fire for a state system, which has managed to transform a people into a bloodthirsty racist mob within 8 years, as once, from 1933 in German lands – that is the real monstrous éclat – the testimonium paupertatis of the so-called free world …
It’s not 8 years. USA have been suporting Banderites since WWII ended. In addition to that, the desire of Western Europe to conquer those “savage Russians” has been going on for centuries. There is nothing new under the sun.
Industrial warfare is back. At the factory: Tanks T-14 Armata, T-90M Proryv and BMPT Terminator in the assembly lines of UralVagonZavod:
https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1627315459925110784
Russia will be cranking out 12 BMPT Terminators per month.
Meanwhile, President Biden arrived in the Ukraine today.
According to MSM, “[Biden] said the visit reaffirmed that the United States has “unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.””
And none of the above for his own country. This country, this government, the United States, has absolutely no regard for the democracy (which does not exist), the sovereignty (just look at our southern border), and integrity (oh, please!) here at “home.”
On a more optimistic note, once Mr Putin has retired from Russian politics, we could ask him if he would be interested in a retirement job sorting things out here as he has done so successfully in Russia.
Why, you want him to toil relentlessly the way Hercules did ?
The man is only human and he has turned 69.
Give him a rest 🙂
Appears we are “all in” with Biden’s visit to Kiev. I suspect Biden will be sending a contingent of NATO/US peacekeepers to follow and dare Russia to attack them uniting Western populace. I’ve been saying since beginning no chance West is gonna walk away because how committed they became.. West had not committed fully to a proxy war with Russia until a month or so after Russia blundering with tiny force…Milley even said regime would fall in 3 days and Biden offered Zelensky a flight out. But once West committed, It became an existential conflict for US/NATO as well.
American here. If US/NATO troops enter the Ukraine, I hope Russia incinerates them. How’s that for “uniting the West?” I’d just file that under Fuck Around And Find Out. I don’t think that would. “Unite the West”. Rainbow Milley has already shown that the US military opposes traditional Americans, and the federal response to the Ohio disaster is evidence of how the elites feel about people between the coasts.
Rainbow ! luv it : )
had not heard that one…
Yes, the Pentagon already purged most of the good ones. The rest are all walking time bombs from the clot-shot.
mr. johnson- yes this could be a very pivotal week coming up or maybe not. guess we will know soon. i watched both videos above and alexander discussing on how Putin ticked off the EU-USA back in 2007 with his speech was very interesting. It looks like putins speech back then has lead us to this moment 16 yrs later.
i suggest everybody read the 4 articles from simplicus76 yu posted on your last article below. I did not know how sophisticated the detection, fire and control systems are and that it is know that difficult to hide on the battlefield. It took an hour to go through them; but worth anybodys time that is interested in how modern warfare is know conducted. i think that any towed heavy weapons are know obsolete. yu need to be able to shoot and scoot and have a minigun antidrone gun with you.
https://sonar21.com/complex-comprehensive-analysis-from-simplicius76/
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whitney-us-led-coalition-willing-foreshadows-splintering-nato
Warning this vid has graphic violence- shows ukrainian chemical weapons being used against russian solders and some serious f bombs in it. According to enos; there are also americans fighting for the russians in ukraine.
Wagner Vows to Free Canada, UK, & USA from Genocidal Governments Who Are Using Chemical Weapons
The DoD and our Satanic governments have begun to use chemical weapons against We The People in the West. Their War Crimes started in Ukraine but has as exposure is driving them to a state of desperation, they’re staging accidents like Ohio as governments are attacking their own people.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/k1ac4G2X22Ge/
https://seed167.bitchute.com/UnuX7D6YRyiE/k1ac4G2X22Ge.mp4
these are all short vids
Song of American patriots- was at the end of the above video- language warning
comment posted was This should be now an anthem till job is finished..
https://www.bitchute.com/video/5HGOxIzZjqWf/
https://zggg98sgwbg1gh.bitchute.com/pddtMfpbmFM5/5HGOxIzZjqWf.mp4
Roseanne Barr says her ‘whole libtard family has clots and will die from jab’- graphic lang.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/TfueWVPaTTi9/
https://seed177.bitchute.com/NYZMjDr6JOG3/TfueWVPaTTi9.mp4
What Are You Doing? – i agree- this is a war on us as well as russia
https://www.bitchute.com/video/i9ia9GM2TqSj/
https://zn21g5kls-n995.bitchute.com/gLxySCErGBJX/i9ia9GM2TqSj.mp4
Biden on ‘Man-Woman’ (Parody Lip Sync- AI Voice- Not Him)
https://www.bitchute.com/video/BPknhbBZ7aSi/
https://seed306.bitchute.com/kDHBE5vylTdI/BPknhbBZ7aSi.mp4
I did find this disturbing. not sure what to make of it. Can anyone comment.
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/russia-to-introduce-digital-identity
I THINK EVERYONE SHOULD READ THIS
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-resist-cbdcs-5-ways-you-can-opt-out-dystopian-future
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/donald-trump-plans-visit-ohio-town-toxic-train-derailment
clown world
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pentagon-declines-answer-if-it-shot-down-12-balloon-400000-missile
Regards,
Ralph
The Dutch minister of Foreign Affairs Hoekstra said he expected a long lasting war in Ukraine. Therefore he urged the Dutch to continue supporting the military aid to Ukraine and not to surrender to ‘war fatigue’. At present the Dutch are heading for elections in March and mr. Hoekstra’s Christian Democratic Party is expected to dwindle into a dwarf existence. It is quite peculiar to see left leaning parties in Europe stirring the war drums, while the right leaning parties are calling for peace negotiations. Alexander Mercouris in his latest video aptly describes how the Munich conference of this year is dispiritedly urging to show ‘unity’ on the Ukrainian front opposed to the almost war drunken orgy that ‘spirited’ the Munich conference of last year. Anyway, I expect the Ukrainian frontline to crumble soon.
————————
https://www.vesti.ru/article/3212957
Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the surrender of Artemovsk
The evacuation from Artemovsk (Ukrainian name – Bakhmut) of the command of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suggests that the city will be surrendered in any case and the enemy is preparing for this, said Yan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the DPR.
According to him, in general, Russian forces are taking active steps along the entire line of contact and continue to take the initiative.
“If we talk about the Artemovsk direction, the city really falls into the encirclement. In fact, our military is working there, already in the city itself. It is not in the ring, it is in such a dense square. And the Ukrainian command was evacuated from the city itself. that the city will be handed over in any case,” Gagin said on the air of the 60 Minutes program on the Russia 1 TV channel.
He said that “in Kiev, options are being considered for the surrender of the city,” which, according to the plan of Volodymyr Zelensky, was supposed to demonstrate the strength of Ukrainian weapons and fighting spirit. In fact, Gagin noted, Artemovsk “instead of a fortress city became just a point for the disposal of the armed forces of Ukraine – both equipment and personnel, as well as the forces of mercenaries who regularly entered there.”
As for the militants remaining in Artemovsk, they are doomed either to captivity or to death, said the adviser to the acting head of the DPR.
In USA the left got us in every major war. Bush 2 was anomaly with IRAQ but most say he was a RINO. Hard core Republicans like Reagan walked away from Middle East after hundreds of Marines killed in a terror attack. In general right means freedom/liberty at home and from foreign entanglements. Not that we don’t like a strong military and such but more like walk softly and carry a big stick. Even now you see it with about half the house Republicans wanting out of Ukraine. The left like to meddle in everything. Your finances and aboard. By it’s nature progressivism in revolutionary and messianic. A 1960s leftest does not recognize a 2023 one. While right has not changed much.
“About half the House Republicans wanting out of Ukraine.” I wish that were true. It’s not. Besides, no one will be allowed to be president without acquiescing to what the Deep State wants.
“In USA the left got us in every major war …”
Not always. G. H. Bush got you in the Gulf War (Irak)… invaded Panama in December 1989, and sent troops to Somalia in 1992 …
… and D. D. Eisenhower started supporting the French in Indochina/Vietnam in the 1950s …
“Hard core Republicans like Reagan walked away from Middle East …”
Reagan invaded Grenada in 1983 … bombed Libya in 1986 and, among other nations, supported and trained the mujahideen in Afghanistan:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mujahideen#/media/File:Reagan_sitting_with_people_from_the_Afghanistan-Pakistan_region_in_February_1983.jpg
And the Contras, Wars on Drugs, etc.
” Hoekstra’s Christian Democratic Party is expected to dwindle into a dwarf existence. It is quite peculiar to see left leaning parties in Europe stirring the war drums, while the right leaning parties are calling for peace negotiations”
Since when “Christian Democratic” Parties are “left leaning”? Did you check Hoekstra’s party ideology?
Which other “right leaning parties” are calling for peace negotiations?
Are you so ill-informed? Or you spread misinformation on purpose?
PS: In Spain, the only party that is against war, is the left party “Podemos” (not “left leaning”: left, directly). The rest, all, are war mongers.
In Holland there exists a ruling coalition of 4 parties, two liberal & two Christian-Democratic. Well, if they had some right leaning agenda (f.e. being against the huge inflow of migrants & being against the ‘Green Agenda’), there is nothing left of it. In the Netherlands there is strong opposition coming from the farmers who are being threatened in their existence. In the past the Christian-Democratic party protected the farmers’ interests; not anymore. Happily, there are now new parties, who want to protect the farmers and who want to stop supporting the war efforts in Ukraine. It seems, that these new parties will win the upcoming elections. Please, refrain from aggressive troll-attacks.
“In Holland there exists a ruling coalition of 4 parties, two liberal & two Christian-Democratic”
See? None of them is “left leaning”.
“It seems” we have to wait till next elections to see if your prediction is true.
Your current generalization (“left leaning for war, right leaning for peace”) is a silly lie.
“Well, if they had some right leaning agenda ..”
I think you simplify too much what is being right or left, sorry.
Please, refrain from misinformation troll-attacks and wishful thinking reasoning.
Americans have been brainwashed for decades that “Russia lies”, when it is our government and media that have been the perpetrators.
I feel ya, I grew up in the Duck-n-cover era, where everything Washington said was gospel and everything from the God-less commies was a lie.
It was a shocking wake up
All the so-called “Christian Democratic Parties” in Europe are very right … including the Dutch and the German (Merkel, Von der Leyen, etc.) …
Whatever happens this week, the lines have been drawn. Demented Joe is in Kiev today and that, just like Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was to China – is a direct slap in the face to the Russians. The West is demonstrating, at least in PR moves, that it actively wants to goad the Russians (and the Chinese in case of Taiwan) into a confrontation.
My guess is that neither Russia and especially not China – wants a confrontation with the United States (for obvious reasons). At this point both must realize that they are not dealing with “rational actors” in Washington nor in London. As I have said before, for Russia this started as a local war/global diplomatic chess game but for the USA/NATO/EU/UK – it was existential from the start. USA/EU/UK intelligence failed in many ways regarding Russia but Russia’s intelligence failed to recognize that the crazy/stupid people are in power in the West.
I think that during this conflict the Russians went through something similar to the 5 stages of grief – what happened to unwilling to accept to must figure out how to cope to… now finally realizing that the loonies in DC are ready to go all the way.
I expect Putin to make a speech to that effect and go out all the way to actual red lines and more. The question is what will be the support of China in all this.
Now that the fight is actually not just a local security issue for Russia (but it is existential), the question is – is it existential for China? My feeling is – no. At least it is not immediate and immediate usually means not existential. The Chinese are probably going to tell their Russian friends today that they are not interested in being a party to what happens next and Putin will have to figure out how to go about this differently. I think so long as China doesn’t stab their Russian “friends” in the back and Turkey keeps Erdogan – Russia can deal with this all by themselves. Now, if Russia loses China’s support and if Turkey becomes unfriendly (if Erdogan loses May elections and someone unfriendly to Russia comes into power) – Russia will truly be isolated and in a tough spot.
Oddo!
In this case, I disagree with you.
1. Slap? Firstly, the hands are short, and secondly, it is impossible to offend someone who does not accept insults and does not raise the thrown glove.
2. Russia has already entered into a confrontation with the US. Russia has no other choice. She has been preparing for this for many years.
3. Intelligence is not needed to assess the intelligence of Western leaders, including the US authorities. Everything is written on the faces.
4. 5 stages of acceptance of the inevitable Russia went through before 2014 or even before 2008
5. Russia does not consider China an ally. Companion – nothing more. Russia has no allies. At all. None. (Belarus is also not an ally). And this is good. Russia’s decisions do not depend on China’s actions. China will help – thanks. China will not help – we can handle it ourselves.
6. Russia’s struggle throughout history has been existential in nature.
the chances that, at this late stage, china and russia are not completely joined at the hip in every major sector (economic, military) are practically next to zero: both countries realise that, without the full assistance of the other, they will duly be attacked and destroyed by the collective west and its satanic leadership.
Really?ODDO?Putin openly said there will be no negotiation with the west until there is a change in leadership.In what universe does China side with the west against Russia?In that same universe the 85% sides with the US?NONSENSE!
If you think that China does not need Russia, then you should think again.
@just saying:
China needs Russia but it also needs United States and the West – because a lot of the Chinese economy is dependent on sales in the West. Russia sells raw materials/commodities and it is easy for Russia to switch quickly from one client to another but it is not the same as finished products, which China sells to the West. There is a difference between joining a conflict to supporting from the sidelines to quietly approving to being totally indifferent. China is happy for Russia to shed blood and fight the West (and partially fight China’s fight as well) but it also has to co-exist with the West. Russia has experience in war, China does not.
@Gera:
Russia can go at it alone but it is much easier to fight the whole west with friends. In general, alliances always intermix resources and capabilities so they are usually beneficial in a fight.
USA officials are talking about possible war with China in 2025, and you are talking about this not being existential for China, and China needing US market.
USA is openly provoking and threatening China. It seems to me that the honeymoon phase between US & China is over, and that they are heading for a nasty divorce. Chinese will surely try to make it a peaceful one, but they know that they really need someone strong by their side, in order to prevent things from getting violent. China needs a strong ally, and a number of those available is very small.
Extreme good information. Read it frequently.
One thought: Just over a year ago, problems emerged in Kazakhstan. Russia was asked to help and finished the problems, before they got out of hands.
Same setup? I assume!
I’m all for jettisoning Biden and his entire freak show administration. These people don’t have the best interest of the America people at heart. It’s a kakistocracy!
Perception is reality. I argued against the Ukraine debacle from Day 1. And it was lonely. Lost some “friends “. But the conversation is changing. No Ukrainian flags. People finally asking about where the money is going. The US has the attention span of a 5 year old. It will probably not go nuclear. Russia will go to the Dnieper and eventually strangle Odessa. We will slink away to the next debacle in Taiwan. As our Ponzi economy dies and our technological police state tightens its grip on us. As the middle class dies in the dark. There will be the Praetorian guards of the police and military. The bureaucracy of the unionized government workers. And the drugged, drunk, and oblivious mob. All paid for with the chattering money printing press and the fictitious financial markets. Until one day it just grinds to a halt.
Several days since I don’t see an Ukrop’s tank disabled in the daily Russian MoD reports … same for recent guns (D20 and Gvodzika are not “recent”).
Two possibilities then : or the banderist move them from the actives fronts (as if they weren’t needed) , or they are dry (of tanks , fuel or ammo).
It may explain the “Hellensy Europa Tour 2023” for begging tank in emergency that we saw recently 🙂
“”Tanks” this and “Tanks” that.” That is the Military’s COIN strategy speaking. We have not faced a major land campaign since the Gulf War and they have been training in COIN ever since. Tanks will do nothing but burn under the God of War (artillery) or your friendly neighborhood Lancet. They will never see any mechanized equipment.
Being an old Cold Warrior, I never thought I’d see the day when Russia would have to liberate Europe, but it’s happening.
“Take a good look at this map.”
Yup, it really is a helluva map, makes it clear that once the Russians took Crimea, the Ukraine state became nothing more than a highly vulnerable salient. Thow in naval control of the Black Sea and the fact the Russians can conduct operations out of Belarus, and Ukraine is in the proverbial cauldron, just turn up the heat and boil.
That’s the meaningless big picture, however, the vitally important little picture is the need to take the high ground to the west southwest (?) of Bakhmut in order to pour towed artillery fires on highway something or other.
Then maybe Bakhmut itself might fall. What a mini-Verdun Bakhmut has become, and if it can hold on for just three more months, it will equal Verdun’s record as the longest battle ever fought, at 10 months.
And no, I don’t think Leningrad in WWII counts. That was more of a siege.
Hey, is this real. Is the US President really in Kiev?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/iQ0oAWBS750e/
Why is Zelensky not supporting Joe Biden at the elbow? It seems to me the proper thing to do. Despite the wailing sirens, the greatest threat present is clearly not getting all blowed up by a Rooskie missile strike, but that my irreplaceable President might stumble and fall and break his neck.
“And no, I don’t think Leningrad in WWII counts. That was more of a siege.”
This has to be the dumbest comment I’ve ever read.
Over 4 million people died, it was most certainly a battle.
It would appear that Bakhmut is being slowly encircled, with the roads in and out being cut off. It will fall one of these days. I am amazed at the tenacity of the Ukrainian forces. Wonder if they will surrender once the encirclement is complete; kind of doubt it.
I wonder if anyone has considered that Putin may not have to push an advance from the south and take Odessa? The pattern for Putin has been to take ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine in order to protect them from a genocidal Kiev. The war of attrition will go on in the East from north to south to finish taking the Donbas provinces (now part of Russia) and in doing to the war of attrition for Ukraine will be completed.
Ukraine has already lost. When the military acknowledges thecollapse, Kiev either capitulates and surrenders unconditionally, or the Russians will simply continue to roll over the demilitarized south and north west of the Dnieper River that divides the country without any serious military opposition. The option for Ukraine is to simply cede the territories demanded by Russia and end the conflict including Odessa and right up to the Transnistria border. This is the sane approach for Kiev, but may not be acceptable for Washington.
By that time the defeat of Ukraine, one way or another will be a matter of the US and a divided NATO to decide whether or not to actively take on Russian forces in Ukraine, or the nuclear option. In the end a divided NATO, even if it still functions as an entity, will likely not chose to act. That leaves the decision to the United States to take individual action or some sort of combined piecemeal military operation with Poland against Russia. Again, the problem for the West is that no Western country, including the US is prepared for such an undertaking with sufficient ground forces, logistical and industrial support to do so….
FWIW,
L.
Russia could launch a cyber attack against US infrastructure, take down the extremely vulnerable grid in a major city or two for a while and instantly end all support for “muh Ukraine” from even the most braindead American NPC.
The impetus is the Nordstream attack on top of all the other provocations, and Russia plausibly denies as did the US.
This type of action would also neutralize NATO as the stock market would probably crash due to mass rioting and violence and the USD fiat, already on life support, would finally be taken out behind the barn.
The UAF would almost instantly surrender from the NATO gravy train being cutoff and US “allies” – held at gunpoint for years to a delusional, suicidal and dying spouse – would jump ship to BRICS faster than Zelensky on a coke binge.
Meanwhile, both Russia and Ukraine stop bleeding in this conflict. China takes Taiwan. And the world begins somewhat fresh without the psychopathic guy, drunk on power, running amock waving and shooting guns at those that don’t submit to his will.
Perhaps a momentary peace until the same parasites that led the US to ruin latch onto a new host.
The way to do it would the TransAtlantic commo cables going into London. And would that not be a sweeeeet bitch slap payback for the NordStream? I dunno know who blew those up!! Probably the Tibetans! And the already joke Uk economy would go down in flames.
Russia is the only player in this drama that can change the dynamic for the better and that means ending this insanity sooner rather that later. Which necessitates decisive action in the battlespace that forces the Nazis out of power in Kiev. That is Gerasimov’s mission now. Kill the beast and end the bloodshed. The second “Battle of Kursk” is about to begin, but Ukraine will have far fewer tanks than Germany had at that time.
“Pivotal” indeed…the political rhetoric is certainly ratcheting up…I’m sure you have all seen by now that Joe made a “surprise” visit to Kyiv: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/president-biden-pledges-new-military-aid-ukraine-surprise-visit-kyiv
At some point here in the next few months, NATOstan is going to quit sending or run out of weapons and ammo for the UKR–a Russian offensive may even speed up that process e.g. the UKR will burn through even higher amounts of ammo at a faster rare countering the offensive.
In the meantime, the SMO has reached a point where wither Russia prevails or NATOstan prevails–it is unlikely that some middle-ground diplomatic solution will be reached. In any event, WWIII is unfolding–it is a hybrid war and a war pitting a Multi-polar geopolitical world order against the US Hegemon led “international rules based order”…this war will extend far beyond UKR borders and will end with the Hegemon’s fall.
I am afraid it shall be a bloody decade.
It’s painfully obvious the US/NATO/EU/AUKUS/FIVE EYES alliance has lost this war and knew it would back in September when someone who graduated grade 9 math in the Pentagon realized the artillery war was hopelessly lost. The PR campaigns kept on coming with their plethora of lies just like they always do from the US war-losing-machine, and a huge percentage of the public still had a steaming mug of hopium or copium, nursing it each day hoping that their governments aren’t lying to their faces yet again. But, we all know they are, and still persist, and they will right up until the last day that Zelenskyy and his Cadre heave their suitcases of American dollars into their pre-arranged rides in US helicopters to abandon Kiev to the Red Army (Russian Forces Army). And yet again America will have been defeated by another country where a coup d’etat went wrong.
How can the US build machinery, without lathe operators, machinists, and tool and die makers, while the Biden administration is trumpeting the lie that mathematics is racist, bad, and should not be thought in schools. Can’t do real manufacturing without a skilled workforce, which is lacking. The US now has a trained generation of idiots, marching around in pussy-hats and transgender uniforms only capable of living in their mother’s basement on welfare.
How can the US build machinery, without lathe operators, machinists, and tool and die makers”
How can they?
With Thing Tanks?
with intelligence?
with the media?
with talks?
If the Ukrainians learn to use less ammo, they have a fighting chance to march to Moscow even along a 1K front. Estimates I have read from pundits is that Ukraine will run out of ammo by August if they don’t get anymore. Which will be of course heralded that the Ukraine has won the war.
NATO/US planners should have seen the ammo shortage coming. Check this article out from 2011 about the rounds shot off by the US military and had to get ammo from Israel.
US forced to import bullets from Israel as troops use 250,000 for every rebel killed
Forces using 1.8 billion rounds of ammunition a year
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/us-forced-to-import-bullets-from-israel-as-troops-use-250000-for-every-rebel-killed/28580666.html#:~:text=supplies%20from%20Israel.-,US%20forces%20have%20fired%20so%20many%20bullets%20in%20Iraq%20and,small%2Darms%20ammunition%20a%20year.
“US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan – an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed – that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand. As a result the US is having to import supplies from Israel.
US forces have fired so many bullets in Iraq and Afghanistan – an estimated 250,000 for every insurgent killed – that American ammunition-makers cannot keep up with demand.”
Some guys I read who seemed to know is that the high volume is due to evolving technology and changed battlefield tactics that uses ammo for example to suppress enemy movements, etc. Telling Ukrainians to use less ammo is asking them to commit military suicide. (Maybe Ukrs should switch to snubnose revolvers to save ammo.)
Larry, this doesn’t quite fit your narrative but it is a view and it is frightening…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY_Q1WEUsBs
Why WWIII could be imminent.
Today a demented sociopathic Biden is in Kyiv hugging Zelensky; the neocon war faction is raising the stakes expotentially. At this point only Russia and China can save human civilization from the neo-Marxist fascist state desperately clinging to it’s empire that the US has become.
On the myth of Soviet “rusification of Ukraine” – https://t.me/ia_steklomoy/19680
Watch Scott Ritter’s Rage Against the Military Machine Speech on YouTube. Like me, Scott Ritter is enraged against the Military Industrial Congressional Complex.
Please watch Scott Ritter’s Rage Against the Military Machine video on YouTube. The speech was originally given on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial. Like me, Scott is enraged at the Military Industrial Congressional Complex.
I have a question after speaking to a Russian peacenik- what would happen if NATO spread up to Ukraine?
Nothing, after all – Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia are on the borders of Russia- nothing happened!
Why would the same happen with Ukraine?
Any references would be useful too.
Because the DC swamp has been emitting gas for decades about breaking Russia down into separate states. They want to dismember the country because, they say, it has too large a share of natural resources and others have a right to them. There are various think tank papers arguing for this which have been published over the years, the RAND Corporation and others. Condoleeza Rice has explicitly expressed this position.
Only yesterday at the Munich Security Summit, Kaja Kallas, an Estonian official, said that the government of Russia had to be taken down because with or without Putin, Russia is a savage beast, the Russian people have to be taken in hand and re-educated, on account of what is in them.
You can hear her on Alex Christoforou’s YT channel, the video posted this morning. He discusses it. Usually Alex finds something to laugh about; he doesn’t laugh here, he’s grim.
There’s a spirit of hatred for Russia, her people, her culture and religion. I think it’s from the evil one.
Short of the U.S./West going nuclear, anyone who is paying attention knows that they’ve failed completely. Of course, that doesn’t mean the propaganda machine will admit it; indeed, they’ve already laid the groundwork to turn defeat into [pretend] victory with General Milley’s recent pronouncement that “NATO and this Coalition has never been stronger and Russia is now a global pariah.”
To quote Cary Grant from ‘North by Northwest’, “What a performance!”
Victory will be declared and it will drop from the news cycle just as quickly as did “Russiagate”, the “Covid pandemic”, and every other phony propaganda campaign that we’ve been subjected to for decades. I’m sure that the next “current thing” is already concocted and will be rolled out on cue. Heck, maybe toss in another “pandemic” (from aliens?) to really muddy the waters.
“Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”
~Joseph Goebbels
Who in the U.S. is going to contradict this new narrative? Both parties have been in lockstep when it comes to shoveling money and weapons to Ukraine, so no one is going to mention it with elections coming up next year. The average voter doesn’t even know where is Ukraine much less care about it so when it is suddenly dropped in favor of [insert next current thing here] who is going to even remember it? Americans can’t even remember yesterday.
The U.S. did accomplish killing any potential cooperation between Germany/Europe and Russia and we eliminated them from being an economic competitor. They’ll be forced to buy LNG (and a lot of other things) from us at inflated prices and they’ll have to buy weapons from us to replace all that was lost in Ukraine. The giant grift machine that is NATO will continue and will probably be used to suppress “Russian activity” [aka popular revolt] in Europe itself.
Gotta stay on a permanent war footing because those damn Russkies are everywhere!
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060921/
Lotta good comment! This 75+ y/o drafted ‘Nam VFW says: GO VLAD! Put the likes of Victoria Nuland and Zelensky on racks for public drawing.
does anyone have further info on the story that the Wagner Group is very short on ammunition? I saw the story somewhere (probably an MSM outlet) but can’t remember where. Doesn’t sound right.
I also heard this story. And where? Of course, in telegram channels!
In such cases, Russians use an aphorism from the film “Heart of a Dog”: “If you care about your digestion – my good advice: do not talk about Bolshevism and medicine at dinner. And, God save you, do not read Soviet newspapers (telegrams) before dinner channels).
I propose to go to this issue from the other side.
1. If Wagner or any other unit of the army does not have enough ammunition, where should he go with requests? Of course, in telegram channels to the compassionate public, to housewives, to pensioners, mothers and wives! Already they will take the impregnable Ministry of Defense by storm, they will show “kuzkin’s mother” to indifferent generals.
2. An experienced comrade, Colonel Trukhan, answered this question as follows: I do not remember a single case when military suppliers had anything in abundance. They are so arranged: they always lack everything, even emergency supplies. They do not refuse anything, even if they are not able to take it out and place it in warehouses.
The supply of the army is a very complex procedure of linking many factors, including logistics, everything (to whom, what and how much) is calculated using mathematical formulas.
3. Compare with Ukrainians. They rush throughout the collective West, crying for help with arms supplies. At the same time they sell “surplus” to third countries.
“how far north Russia goes into Ukraine is up for debate”
Just enough to send a message to both Poland and Hungary that Western Ukraine is “up for grabs”.
Once these 2 countries have swallowed a certain amount of territory, Putin’s plan (the annihilation of Ukraine) will be fully completed.
And – bloody masterstroke – the final act of the plan will be done not by Russian troops but by Polish and Hungarian soldiers.
Then it’ll be a time of chronic disorganization in Western Ukraine which naturally can only benefit Moscow : when you’re stuck with border dispute with Warsaw and Budapest the bigger goal of re-igniting a war with Russia is simply impossible to reach.
Putin speech will probably be in measured a fashion. Since it is a national event he will probably rally the nations with what is realistic. Something like “this will be a long war”. “The West has no intention of seeking peace and every intention of controlling Russia”.
It will certainly be a barn burner. Steeped in patriotism, history, and reality with an appeal to non Western nations. I would not expect him to outline war aims as that would be counterproductive.
Life will go on and this war will grind on. The Poles will send more troops into the meat grinder alongside the Ukrainians. The EU will pile more money into the fray. The Western leaders will never alter their goals. The Death cult will get richer feeding on the bodies of their victims.
The distance is about half that, around 500 miles, and half of the distance between Paris and Warsaw which is obvious from a casual glance at a map of Europe. There is a big difference. D.C. to Charleston S.C. would be more accurate.
Even with Putin’s permission to allow Biden into Ukraine he had to sneak into Ukraine like some sort of criminal on the run. I wonder if he had to travel in the trunk of an unmarked car. Kind of reminds me of Pablo Escobar after the destruction of his empire (with the war against the Colomobian state)after all his soldiers had been destroyed he had to travel around in the trunk of taxi cabs or in coffins in the back of hearses. Yes, he still had access to money, but little good it did him since all his men were dead. His only weapon left was typing angry letters he sent to the the President of Colombia. Why does this remind me of President Biden and his administration.
It would be great if Biden was not allowed back into the United States under the pretext that he was recruited by the Russians in exchange for his life.
“Ukraine also is struggling to deal with its depleted troop strength and is forcibly “recruiting” conscripts as young as 16 and as old as 60 …”
And struggling to recruit “quality” foreign fighters in large numbers after so many months of war …?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uBgtVQBAKA
Was that sleepy Joe rolling down the stairs of Airforce 1 in Ukraine? The infrastructure is falling apart in the United States and East Palestine is candid display of this rot….and here again the Globalist preoccupation with running amok with hundreds of billions of dollars aid to their globalist machinations…..there should be riots in the streets but not a boo. Odessa will be critical… everyone speaks of the 101st in Romania but there is 4 or 5 U.S divisions there…. Russia will cut off any post armistice Ukrainian State from having coastal bases or potential marine trade….and will link up with their volk in Transnistria…..that 20,000 tonnes of munitions will come in handy too…. Turkey may be a fly in the ointment for NATO….after the earthquakes there was talk of an attack using non conventional weapons by a senior Turkish official… yesterday another earthquake in turkey was preceded by a very well documeted fireball into the plate. There is a classified but spoken about space based weapons system that fires a 100 meter long metallic rod about 5000 meters into the Earth’s crust that creates enough energy to initiate seismic activity of a substantial strength. Just sayin. And Canada also sent leopard 2A6 variants to Ukraine….they actually flew out of Canada a few weeks ago…that in reference to the second video
“There is a classified but spoken about space based weapons system that fires a 100 meter long metallic rod about 5000 meters into the Earth’s crust that creates enough energy to initiate seismic activity of a substantial strength.”
It’s “Youtube level” classified:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_n1FZaKzF8
All those conspiracy theorists with access to “classified” information are uncapable of doing basic calculations.