I have had several people flag a recent article in 1945 by Daniel Davis. I do not know the man but one friend, who fought alongside Davis, credits him as a brave man under fire. So this is not an attack on his character. But as I said to my knowledgeable friend, “Bravery under combat does not mean one is qualified to do analysis.” I think the article by Davis is a benchmark of sorts because it signals that someone who in previous articles was a strong supporter of the Ukraine narrative (i.e., Ukraine is winning) is having some serious second thoughts. Let me break it down.
Davis’ opening observation qualifies as “No Shit Analysis.”
The unchallenged assumption among the majority of senior U.S. and NATO officials is that for as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the West’s most preferred policy outcomes of the war will be perpetually met: weakening Russia. Going unnoticed by most Western leaders, however, there is an emerging risk that the longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker.
Risk? With all due respect Colonel Davis, we’re already there. Even the New York Times conceded last week that Russia is producing double the artillery shells in one year (two million) that the U.S. hopes to produce in the next two years. Russia’s economy is doing just fine and its defense industry has shifted into overdrive.
Who is being weakened? Well, Ukraine for starters. It is losing population through emigration. Its industrial based is being steadily whittled away by Russian missiles and bombs. And its army is suffering catastrophic casualties and there is no solution on the horizon for replacing those loses with trained troops. But it is not just Ukraine. NATO also is being weakened. None of its previous supplies of tanks, M777s, Himars, ATGMs and Bradley fighting vehicles have worked as hoped. Those are being destroyed on a regular basis and there are dwindling supplies in Western warehouses.
Davis continues:
As bitter a pill as it would be to swallow, such consideration may reveal that pursuing a negotiated end to the war, with the best deal for Kyiv as possible, could be the path that best secures American and NATO interests.
Davis is right that negotiations are the only hope of staunching the damage NATO is suffering, but he is making a faulty assumption — i.e., that Russia is willing to entertain such negotiations. I am not privy to the conversations between Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, but I am confident that nobody in a position of power in Russia trusts the United States or NATO to deal honestly. Russia realizes that the West is scrambling to buy time to figure out a way to re-arm Ukraine and train up a new army. Why would Russia entertain such a crazy proposal?
Colonel Davis demonstrates a complete ignorance of Russia’s capabilities and what has happened during the past year. He writes:
Russia’s air force, despite its technological and numerical superiority over Ukraine, had suffered loss and was unable to achieve air supremacy over its foe. Moscow’s ground forces continued to make grave tactical blunders that exposed significant weaknesses in the very formation of their army. It’s logistics system was dysfunctional. It suffered two major battlefield losses in Kharkiv and Kherson regions in late 2022, forcing Putin to order an emergency mobilization of 300,000 men – who proved to be of very low quality.
By the end of the summer of 2023, Russia had been reported to have lost half its tanks and a staggering 300,000 troops reported to have been killed and wounded. By any objective measure, Austin’s goal of weakening Russia was being graphically accomplished.
This is abject nonsense. Russia has achieved air supremacy, it’s logistics system is doing better than the West predicted and the mobilized Russian forces, unlike their Ukrainian counterparts, have been well trained and are on par, if not superior, to anything the West could put on the front. Moreover, there is no credible evidence that Russia lost “half its tanks.” Just the opposite. Russia suffered minimal losses but has expanded significantly its production of tanks. And what is the West doing? Husbanding tanks that it can no longer produce on a mass scale and watching them being blown up by Russia. If Russia really is weakened, as Davis claims, then why in the hell would the West push for negotiations. We got Putin on the ropes.
Davis concedes that Russia’s situation is far from dire:
The Washington Post on Friday published an analysis of Ukraine’s offensive and found that Russia had “learned from its mistakes” and was performing in an improved and professional way in its “well-ordered defense” system. A recent CNBC report found that “Russia’s tactical adaptation” from its disastrous start, have resulted in the emergency of a “coordinated and reactive armed force…and one that’s particularly strong on the defensive.”
Davis is still hostage to the West’s propaganda narrative. He insists:
While Putin’s troops are reported to have suffered even more casualties than Ukraine, there is a math problem for Kyiv: Russia has millions more military-aged males available to be mobilized than does Ukraine.
Those reports are wrong Daniel. Ukraine’s casualties exceed Russia’s by a factor of 10 and, as I have written repeatedly, the social media accounts and even Ukrainian officials tell a different story. But you are right, even if Russia had suffered the losses you claimed, they can absorb those losses. Ukraine cannot.
Daniel Davis’ is besotted with the Western fantasy that what is unfolding in Ukraine is a “stalemate.” Davis and others in the Pentagon fail to understand the Russian strategy underlying the Special Military Operation — i.e., attrit the Ukrainian military to the point that it can no longer fight:
Thus, at this moment nearing the end of the UAF’s summer offensive, after a year and a half of inconclusive war, the war’s outcome cannot be predicted with any certainty. It remains at least conceivable that either Ukraine or Russia could prevail.
Nope. There are two ways Ukraine “can prevail” — No Way and No Way in Hell. Ain’t going to happen. The West no longer has the ability or the will to flood Ukraine with modern weapon systems and tanks. More importantly, Ukraine does not have the trained troops required to operate those weapons even if they could be provided.
Colonel Davis is detached from reality. He posits as a possibility something that is already a reality:
Faced with an existential threat, nuclear-armed Russia, with its vast natural resources, could muster the necessary focus to improve its army to the point Ukraine will eventually be unable to keep pace, and therefore it is not out of the realm of possibility Russia could win this war.
Russia has the requisite forces and Ukraine already is demonstrating it cannot keep pace.
Maybe Daniel Davis actually knows that the jig is up but, fearing being ostracized if he admits the truth, is playing the game of “what if.”
It is crucial, therefore, that the Administration establish a set of criteria whereby we would have strong indications, well before a collapse occurs, that an irrevocable point has been reached. If such a point-of-no-return moment is reached, the U.S. will have no choice but to change policies and put as much energy as possible behind finding a diplomatic path to a negotiated end.
Word to the good Colonel — we have reached that irrevocable point. Like a chicken without a head, Ukraine is running frantically in circles not realizing it is dying.
Davis believes that American leadership can still salvage the impending debacle:
Ultimately, the American government’s number one obligation (not merely responsibility) is to the people of the United States. We must not allow the situation to deteriorate to the point we have a repeat of the debacle that we passively watched unfold in Afghanistan for years. The Administration must at least actively prepare and consider the possibility that our preferred outcome may not come to pass, and should take steps to guard against it.
Colonel Davis, I speak to you directly, there is nothing the U.S. can do at this point to alter the outcome short of starting a nuclear war. Russia is no longer fighting this war alone. It has the backing of China and many nation’s in the Global South. America’s economic dominance is being carved up and our foreign policy influence is in tatters. Previous allies, like Saudi Arabia, have turned their back on America. The Saudis have re-established diplomatic relations with Iran, welcomed Syria back into the Arab league, ended the American-backed war in Yemen and is working with Russia to counter America’s feckless attempt to put a cap on oil prices.
Like the Titantic, America’s foolish venture to fracture Russia is sinking. They only thing left to do is find a life boat and pray that we don’t drown. The following scene from Titanic is an apt methapor:
Russia will accept a negotiated settlement.
1. Ukrainian forces surrender.
2. The government in Kiev leaves.
3. Ukraine rejoins CIS with a Russian appointed government pending elections.
4. Russian border troops guard Ukraine’s border.
5. Ukraine cedes whatever areas Russia wants.
Putin will agree, peace is at hand.
Inshallah.
Good article as usual Larry, but there is one way the Ukrainians could win….If the ground opened up along the 1000 km. front and swallowed the Russian army. A truly biblical event similar to the parting of the red sea. Hey…you just never know!!
Given Ukraine’s messiah complex, I’m sure that’s not outside their contingency plans.
that’s where tactical nuts would come in!!
Indeed.
1) Ukrainian forces will try to surrender but that will start a violent turf war among Kiev factions and foreign busybodies.
2) The government in Kiev will cease to function and anarchy will set in.
3) Huge ethnic groups will sue to reverse the borders as they once were and rejoin their ancestral homelands.
4) Russians will take whatever they want.
5) Ukraine will be a shadow of itself with only a rump central state left, which should be renamed Nuland’s Rump.
Putin will do as he pleases as NATO grifters, Pentagon chickens, DC vermin and their European toadies all go for each other’s throats affixing the blame for the disaster on one another while attempting escape on the runaway gravy train.
Absolute morons every last one of them.
It won’t be big enough to call it Nuland’s rump.
Nuland’s Butthole?
Nuland’s Arse, we would say, on the English-speaking ‘unsinkable (!?) US aircraft-carrier on the east side of the Atlantic Ocean. (Otherwise known as the ‘English Arse-lickers’).
Why is it that Trump was smart enough to sideline Nuland during his four years but dumb enough to take on Pence, Bolton, Pompeo and Haley?
By the looks and mutterings of things, Pence is soon headed for a long-needed rest at Bellevue or wherever Medicare sends mental meltdowns.
Trump never imagined the fathomless and exponential iniquity, depravity, and treason festering in the Swamp. He was not going to play ball, he was going to realign taxes business so they would benefit Americans, and cut down on the MICC ponzi that ripped off American taxpayers, attacked and looted foreign target populations, and implement procedures to be followed in an increasingly lawless political environment.
This was all to much for the Swamp vermin, a direct threat to their power abuses and money scams, so they colluded together so as to take him down, and enlisted their MSM trolls to spread slander which they gladly did. They are all guttersnipes regardless of station or rank. And the least the military grifters could do is stop touching, wearing, or waving our flag. They have sullied it enough as it is and by the time this fiasco is over we will need a new one, and all the provocateurs of this filthy bloodbath should be dumped off in what is left of Ukrainian and let them live on the streets like they have done to so many returning veterans here and countless servicemen and civilians abroad.
I don’t know. You seen the size on Nuland’s rump lately. Poor thing. I actually feel sorry for her. She used to be such a hottie.
“used to be such a hottie.” – for a Neo-Fascist student of political murder.
The best outcome.
“Nurumpland”
Nulandistan?
It already has a name: The Kaganate of Nuland.
You forgot Poland.
Everyone keeps neglecting the buildup in Poland.
Also: a class war—by the 0.1% against the rest of us—has been going on ever since the Powell Memo, issued back some 50+ years ago.
Class solidarity is the only way of eluding massacres and planned genocides of the so-called “useless eaters”.
Yes there is something brewing in Poland but it will not publicly surface until after the Kiev collapse. Ukraine is being systematically depopulated, the question is by whom and for what purpose. Only the vermin festering along the banks of the Potomac know for sure. But the Poles were damn fools to go along with the manufactured carnage for all this time.
The Deluded Aggregation of Fools and Rapacious Lunatics in Washington, Brussels and most NATO countries are merely carrying water for the Rothschild Class. The US will NEVER AGAIN dominate the world like it did post WW2. The PetroDollar is a dead fiat walking. Cui bono? The Rothschild Class, just as they have in nearly every war, colonization and “colour revolution” since the late 1700s. Like the Hatian slaves that overthrew the French, Russia has never been forgiven for beating the Brits in the Crimean War, ditto for the Afghans frog marching the Brits out in the 1800s.
Look at the Trudeau/Freeland/Singh Cabal’s irrational, dogmatic allegiance to the WEF/Schwab/Harari Cabal. Add an endless train of the likes of WEFers Merkel, Stoltenberg, Van De Lying, BoJo and Macron. All marching to the Rothschild Class warmonger drum. The US likes to think it is independent of such machinations, but in the end, money talks, a la Citizens United. Soros funding pet DAs /judges elections all over the US. The US has been silently captured from within. Just like your Founding Fathers warned against.
Which is why pragmatists like the Saudi Royals have jumped the US Hegemonic ship and also decided that Israel is not worth negotiating with.
And yes, the Poles are fools if they think they (and whose army) can stand up to Russia, let alone when backed by China and most of the Global South. I don’t think most Polish citizens are fooled, but as Goering so clearly stated, “the leaders will bring them to war”.
And why make such a big noise about the Russia/North Korea alliance, not really much new to see there… Russia has surely been quietly helping NK in its various military modernizations for decades.
Why? Because the US is still technically at war with NK, and therefore NK is within UN-rights to strike the Continental US if the US/South Korea alliance gets too cute with their “war games”. Putin merely used the Kim trip to point out to the US that the US’s sordid past can bite HARD.
Whitney Webb wrote about the Ukraine Neo-Nazis becoming the new Al-Qaeda.
https://mronline.org/2022/03/10/ukraine-and-the-new-al-qaeda/
Are these “refugees” are the seeds of the “global white supremacist” threat that will justify the surveillance state for the next 20 years?
Poland is building up for war on the surface at least, but their bought off leaders must know by now how their troops will end up. And at least 1,000 of their lemming mercenaries came to a violent end with nothing to show for it but new sworn enemies for Poland and broken families at home. Way to go, guys! The swamp vermin are using the NATO alibi to build up American forces in Poland, so the Poles can’t be all happy about being used as a launch pad by Americans to attack Russians via Ukraine and exposing the entire nation as chum if the Russians respond in a big way. Then there is the issue of formerly Polish lands now inside the Ukrainian border, will that stay the same after a war ? Duda is a moron for allowing this external danger to exist among his people, he should just shorten his name to Dud.
Poland is trying to please Washington.
How many Americans KNOW it was Woodrow Wilson who re-created Poland when most European states in 1918 were ambivalent ? Poland looks to Washington to give it new status as The US Hub to supplant Germany in Mainland Europe.
Poland buys weapons on credit from Washington and PiS antagonises Russia and Germany – quite deliberately. PiS has been selling Visas for $5000 a pop in Asia and Africa to sluice people into the German welfare system………it uses Belarus as a smokescreen claiming Lukashenko is using refugees as a tool……….but Polish politicians are scamming massively and destabilising Germany which has no border controls with Poland.
47% on German Income Support are non-German – it used to be 20%.
Poland is seeking to de-stabilise Germany and become US HQ in Europe just as Israel is in Mid-East. Poland wants Ukraine destroyed………..it sees itself as regional leader……
Eventually EU will stop sending funds to Poland – it is Subsidy Junkie No1 – the equivalent of ENTIRE UK Contribution to EU went to Poland…………
Poland might suffer the same fate as Ukraine if they don’t wake up and smell the coffee/corpses
Yeah, there is a buildup in Poland, but only because they want their bit of western Ukraine back after the government in Kiev collapses. Not even the Polacks are stupid enough to want to march east from there.
“Nuland’s rump” would imply a much larger state remaining that will happen
Rump Ukraine won’t be anywhere close to as big as Nuland’s Rump.
There will be no finger-pointing or blame-naming in The West.
The entire shit-show will be owned by the neocons, and to be a neocon is to be immune to self-doubt or contrition.
Look at all the previous shit-shows of the last thirty years: can you honestly name a single Washington insider whose career was derailed as a result?
The Shrub? He actually got re-elected despite being as dumb as an ox.
Bonkers Bolton? Keeps floating to the surface like a turd in a toilet bowl.
Cookies Nuland? Climbs up the greasy pole irrespective of Republican or Democrat Administration, it’s all the same to her.
The only person that I can recall ever taking one for the team was Colon Powell, and that was because – as far as I could tell – he was the only non-neocon in the Bush Administration.
There will be no blame laid, because to be a neocon means being able to just walk away from one disaster after another as if it never happened in the first place.
That pretty much sums it up.
What you describe is not a negotiated settlement but unconditional surrender by Ukraine. This Lt.Col Davis speaks about “best deal for Kyiv as possible”, but remember the goals the Kiev hunta set for itself: to restore Ukraine to its 1991 borders including Crimea – I don’t see this happening, do you?
Multiple ‘best deals’ have already bolted the barn. What’s now left is a flea bitten donkey in the stable too old to bolt, some might say like our own old dolt.
Lt. Col. Davis is a DC water boy. He is thinking about his bankbooks so he will say whatever they tell him to say.
I take the Davis article as alluding to the possibility that
IF Washington doesn’t wake up and smell the roses
THEN the end game for Ukraine is “unconditional surrender”
SO plan to open negotiations earlier rather than later.
Or, in short: you aren’t going to get what you want, so start planning now to get what you can because the alternative isn’t “Victory!” but is, instead, a “train wreck”.
This time without the sarcasm.
Poland wants their share. Belarus wants their share. The United States wants all of Ukraine, plus Russia, plus all those natural resources of natural gas, real oil, real coal, real minerals (none of this substitute stuff), and rare earths Russia has in “shameful abundance.”
And the United States wants China, plus North Korea, and the fulfillment of all that Hegemon stuff.
Then there are the Nazis. Nazis never leave. Nazis must be exterminated. Too complicated.
Russia will take all of Ukraine, give Belarus western Ukraine, exterminate the Nazis, and quietly set-up house in Kyiv.
Call it the Occam’s Razor settlement. The simplest settlement being the best.
That’s when the Ukraine | Russo conflict becomes the US | Russo World War.
No wonder “May you live in interesting times” is a curse.
Exactly. Unconditional surrender is the only way out for Ukraine.
I read that article a couple of days ago. Was wondering what the Colonel was smoking?
However, he talks about the interests of USA and NATO. What about Ukraine’s interests? Silence. Same old globahomo claptrap.
There is something odd about Davis’ word choice: “The Administration must at least actively prepare and consider the possibility that our preferred outcome may not come to pass…”
“Preferred” is an adjective you use to decide between pepperoni and anchovies as a pizza topping, not the outcome of a war.
I am guessing that was a subconscious choice/use, probably the way they talk and think about things in Washington DC; a insulted abode where consequences are always inconsequential.
Colonel Davis should submit that as the new slogan for the US ARMY:
“We prefer to win!”
Davis is looking for the exit signs.
Preferred means in this case ‘optimal’, which means there exist suboptimal outcomes, which means he’s showing Biden how you should look for an exit door from the stage, without stumbling.
Winning isn’t the objective, spreading destruction and chaos is. Looking back at the US regime change and military MISadventures since WW2, the US has not actually been interested in “winning”. Then they would have to actually “spread democracy” and support those countries they destroyed. Instead they do a half-assed job, then complain that the locals don’t appreciate being “liberated” from their own national sovereignty, culture and economic security.
To use the Mafioso Protection Scheme language, “nice country ya got here, shame if sumpthin’ was to happen to it…” Or was that a Monty Python skit?
Yup, the US gov’t/military/spy-ops are looking increasingly like a combination of Python and Keystone Kops. Except little things like 500,000 dead Ukie soldiers and Iraqi children paying the ultimate price for the decisions of the Rothschild Class Minions in ZATO/EU.
But Zelensky, Biden, Albright (she wasn’t very bright) and Graham/Nuland (even less bright) say “it was worth it”. Only “worth it” to the Rothschild Class.
Time to change the line from Fortunate Son to “they point the cannon at the Rothschilds”. Won’t rhyme, but sometimes blank verse is more effective. Or in Fixin’ to Die Rag, to “be the first one on your block to see a Rothschild come home in a box”.
To paraphrase Smedley Butler, when the bankers have to fight their own wars, wars will end.
Hand all the warmongers in Washington a rifle with a 10-shot magazine and give them a one-way ticket to the Donbas front… The Ukraine war miraculously ends in minutes.
Well, these guys are in a fantasy world completely detached from reality. Here’s the best indicator of US “Intelligence” capabilities: the government is asking citizens to help them find a missing F-35. I think that says it all. Their eyes and ears aren’t connected to their brains, which in turn aren’t connected to their mouths.
Yes. My mind boggled at that. There were two F-35’s flying in tandem. One pilot ejects and gets down safely. What did the second one do? Follow the dying plane to check out if it was going to kill some poor farmer on the ground? Follow it to check out where it crashed so as to be able to retrieve multi million dollars of classified scrap and a more valuable ‘black box’? Apparently not.
Now possibly instructions were to land ASAP in case the fault applied to both planes. But what a vote of confidence that is in the F-35. I bet the Chinese are breaking out the ‘F-35’ champagne (again).
I would imagine that the 2nd pilot stayed with the ejected pilot while he descended, in case the first responders needed to get medical assistance there in a hurry: pretty hard to miss a fighter jet pulling circles over the spot.
That’s how I’d write the manual: always leave a plane flying over a downed college.
Listened to your video on The Judge with Ray. This article fits in with my question about Jack Devine. Do you really think it’s a combination of delusion, ignorance, mass hypnosis which drives most of these people like Jack? Not trying to put words in your mouth but hopefully you understand what I can getting at.
If it’s not one of those adjectives above then it has to be willful deceit and/or outright lying. The accounts of the situation in Eurasia are night and day from chaps like you and MacGregor in contrast to Devine.
I have to say Larry at this point I almost hope they are lying. If they are lying at least there might be some hope. If they are truly that deluded it does not bode well for the fate of civilization. If they’re lying it seems to me they really do understand the danger we are all in. In this case thermonuclear war. I have often posed this question in conjunction with the covid vaccines. Is it evil vs stupid, and I have yet to be convinced either way.
Luke,
Jack really believes the crap he is saying. Sort of like being a really good friend of Jeffrey Epstein. You overlook the bad behavior and focus only on the positive.
Thanks for the info Larry. I kind of thought you were going to say that. It’s not what I wanted to hear. Makes me think if someone like Jack is that delusional (my words not yours) then so are Sullivan, Blinken, etc. Ditto for Western Oligarchs that are really pulling the strings.
All of them could be excused for a certain period of time, but that time has passed. There is simply no way to justify this lack of awareness anymore. I can see how they get caught in the web. It’s a constant feedback loop no one wants to break. To do so would require brave and independent thoughts.
However there should be enough guys out there like you to at least make them curious. Got no reason to doubt your assessment on Jack. I hope to God my assumption that this level of thinking permeates the upper echelon of decision making is a faulty one. If it’s correct then they will no doubt take us all kicking and screaming to a truly horrible place.
“To do so would require brave and independent thoughts”. I am afraid you might have to refer to the BRICS for those, post the demise of the $ along with the Hegemony that has previously gone with it.
I agree and I feel Real fear. For me and my community. ’cause nuclear war will be the end-of-life, for almost half of the planet .
Witam. Fajnie jest czytać coś czego w Polsce nie dowiesz się. Dominuja wiadomości tylko wielkich zwycięstwach Ukrainy i wielkiej pomocy z krajów NATO!!!! Wielka propaganda , ale tak jest skoro pare milionów ukraińców przebywa w europie. Pozdrawiam takich ludzi, którzy przekazują inne wiadomości niż te z mediów głównego nurtu.
Máte pravdu, ale vetsina Vám netrozumí.
Well said Adam.
QK
Byłoby bardziej celowe, gdybyś użył tłumacza Google (proste), aby to, co masz do powiedzenia, dotarło do osób zamieszczających tutaj ! Ponieważ językiem używanym tutaj jest angielski ! W ten sposób to, co masz do powiedzenia, dotrze do większej liczby osób !
Pozdrowienia
Sort of like knowing Victoria Nuland when she was skinny and a hottie. “You overlook the bad behavior and focus only on the positive.”
To your question Luke
“Is it evil vs stupid, and I have yet to be convinced either way”.
It is a mix of both.
At level of Colonel Davis and the WOKE clown puppets in uniform executing orders in the US military today it is plain stupid incompetence.
However, based on volumes of preceding history as to how the real Deep State power manages collapses of nations and empires, at the very top it is intelligently controlled demolition which is designed to bring about the conditions necessary for regime change and totalitarian reset.
Yeah that’s full on conspiracy theory, or conspiracy reality – take your pick.
Get this latest report as to the evidence of the now deeply-entrenched bumbling incompetence in the crumbling command structure of US military.
F-35 pilot has to eject due to some malfunction (no surprises there for anyone who has been keeping watch on the now $1.7 trillions of dollars wasted on this piece of F-35 junk they are passing off as state-of-the-art fighter jet).
BUT in spite of the USA military’s super-advanced defence systems that are supposed to be monitoring and keeping close watch on flight paths and trajectories of everything in the skies over and surrounding USA, especially in that most sensitive area of Charleston, the US military declares to the world it has not been able to determine location of the ditched F-35 that is worth between USD$150 and $200 million. WOW
F-35 Stealth Fighter Goes Missing Near North Charleston After Pilot Ejects
Refer:
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/f-35-stealth-fighter-goes-missing-near-north-charleston-after-pilot-ejects
following two sentences from the brief article:
An F-35 stealth fighter jet disappeared on Sunday afternoon following a mid-flight “mishap,” Joint Base Charleston wrote on X.
Joint Base Charleston continued, “The pilot ejected safely,” but said, “If you have any information that may help our recovery teams locate the F-35.”
God help America because the US military are clearly not capable of doing so, much less US Government puppet clowns.
CGI planes simply vaporise once the screen is turned off
Seems the pilot **having been ejected** was the mishap 🙂 Maybe the US can kindly ask Russia for their radar data. For the US this thing is stealth. Depends on the capabilities of the radar it is so 🙂
The F-35 was from the beginning all about marketing. This thing is not even near 5’th generation in my opinion. There aren’t so many kinda “defenseless” countries (aka countries that spend more money on what’s important instead of military stuff) where the US could deploy it without it being shot down on first sight. This toy will never see a real combat operation anyway. It’s just too expensive for that 🙂
It could be a marketing campaign to prove the stealth of the F-35.
Here are some flight paths and trajectories. They are not even sure where to search.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/63685
These are the people that are mocking Russians.
Russian pilots flying the Sukhois might be be chaffing at the bit to get it on with Top Gun Hollywood legends in their own lunch-times.
Imagine that crap going up against the Sukhois.
I can imagine it going up against Sukhoi Superjet 100.
The thing about Mr Devine is that i noticed a change in tune lately in his analysis. A while back he was spouting complete Russian collapse, low russian troop morale, brittle, etc…. But recently i noticed that he now seems to be hedging his predictions.
He should go back to hedging his house hedges and leave the analysis to grownups.
These people grew up being told how wonderful, smart and capable and elite they were, from childhood. Couple that with being shielded from the consequences of their actions, and not tasting failure of any kind, and you get arrogant, vain people that think that they’re never wrong. And can do no wrong. Or fail, ever.
Then there’s the fact that their wealthy parents gave them everything that they’ve ever wanted, and that they’ve never had to really earn or work for anything. They’ve also led, and continue to lead, completely sheltered lives.
Joe Biden, for example, has never worked as a lawyer in the real world. Where he’d just be a mediocre, glorified law clerk, in some law office somewhere.
The same applies to all of these other characters in Washington, that are running the various color revolutions, and other subterfuge around the world. They’ve never had to work, or face the consequences of failure, or their bad behavior.
I believe they have been willfully deceiving the western population because they have downplayed the danger of every successive escalatory step they have suggested.
They are the ones who advocated for the expansion of NATO toward Russia.
They are the ones who advocated financing the Maidan coup and a Neo-NAZI Regime in Kiev.
They are the ones who advocated for arming and training 3 successive Ukrainian armies.
They are the ones who supported an international brigade of NAZI Mercs to enter Ukraine.
They are the ones who advocated for Sanctions against Russia, and its Nations of supporters.
They are the ones who green lighted and planed the Blowing up of the NS pipeline.
They are the ones who advocated to keep arming Ukraine despite the heavy loses.
They are the ones who advocated disarming our Nations despite the danger to our own National security.
The western population is the ones who paid the educational system to make them experts, and paid them a high salary to guide our leaders, in return for competence, loyalty and honesty.
However, now that all their suggestions have backfired against the western population, and a general rage is threatening to end in repercussion for those who deceived us into this quagmire, what is a deceiving SOB going to do?
They will keep lying till they drop.
Russia running solid defense with multiple times the firepower of Ukraine, yet: Putin’s troops are reported to have suffered even more casualties than Ukraine….??
Did Davis explain how water flows uphill while he was at it?
Right on! LOL
His reasoning is full of incongruencies. People used to reread their writing and check their reasoning. Apparently, that is the thing of the past in the mainstream media.
Water can flow uphill during tsunamis. Maybe he was thinking about comparing Ukraine’s blitzkrieg counteroffensive to a tsunami? He wouldn’t be the first.
Davis knows what he is doing. He is a paid shill, perfectly willing to lie. He is not getting anything wrong and he is diverting everyone who might have a better idea into the manure pile.
He gets to do that because we who are trying to figure out another way are complicit in letting him BS us. How did Homer Simpson put it? It takes two to lie: one to speak and one to believe – something like that.
I don’t know what is the way out. Refusal to put up with the talking heads is one thing; that needs to get active. Trash the TV studios. Really, what Free Speech right do they have to take payments to lie? So-and-so paid me to lie to the American people and I’m going to claim First Amendment? Maybe.
A shadow government might be set up. Let’s have another source of talking heads. Why does one have to listen to Blinken, Nuland and Biden? The more you listen, the more they can lie. Stop ceding your god given authority!
You’re right Col. Davis, NATO defeated the Taliban and left Kabul victoriously in August 2021. Good grief!
Oh, if only we’d used nukes in Vietnam.
I read an interesting short analysis on Slavyangrad – it was along the lines of Ukrainians changing tactics to go head to head in small arms combat with the RFA. This means more losses for the Russians (assuming Ukr can get so close). The tactic is basically to force Russians to either retreat (to avoid losses) or lose more people in direct hand to hand combat. I think this tactic has borne some fruit in places like Bakhmut where Russian losses are generally higher now than on other front lines (I have seen it said 3:1 in Bakhmut area as opposed to the usual 7:1 or 10:1 in other portions of the front in Russian favor).
The analysis depends (sort of) on the availability of “meat” – either Ukrainian or foreign (mercs). To me this sounds pretty plausible because Ukr have demonstrated so far that they are not averse to losing people in large numbers to achieve something, anything. Whether these are last acts of desperation or something that can be sustained for a long time – remains to be seen (perhaps there are endless Polish mercenary reserves available?).
One thing is for sure (and I think someone said it realistically on the Duran the other day) – United States has almost infinite capacity to spend relatively small amounts of its GDP to finance deaths of Russians in Ukraine (what’s another $100 billion in terms of GDP percentage so long as American soldiers are not directly involved in the war on the ground?) – so American strategy is basically to keep the conflict alive because it is monetarily cheap to do so (for now).
To me this sounds at this point to be a race in time – multiple races at the same time – between elections in USA, loss of dominance over former colonies (de-dollarization, BRICS etc.) and the backdrop of what is happening on the ground in Ukr – which camel’s back will break first and in whose favor?
One very weak point in the American strategy is the EU is – which is in much worse shape financially and politically and its collapse can collapse NATO automatically – this is a HUGE gamble United States has undertaken. If EU’s governments start falling and more “sane” people come to power – American dominance over the whole world will basically crumble instantly, at which point de-dollarization etc. can accelerate exponentially.
Another possibility – Ukraine’s somewhat delusional leaders may believe all the US/NATO hype about “as long as it takes” and the other nonsense and think that if they throw everything in and lose it, the cavalry (NATO) will come riding over the hill and save them. Maybe they’re that stupid. Looking at everything else they’ve done, it’s not much of a stretch. We’re talking about crazy people here, and not just in Ukraine. There is also some talk they have something on Biden, a very real possibility that could muddy things further. Plus, how much of that foreign aid is getting laundered back to some in the US.
There’s a whole lot of people whose personal interests are getting greased here, and who don’t seem to care about what happens to the economy. There’s more at play here than a simple case of the MIC wanting perpetual war. There’s also behind the scenes graft and corruption of a monumental scale as well. This also muddies the decision process.
Not happening. You can have all the money in the world and not be able to produce weapons. América has gotten too stupid lazy entitled to reindustrialize. TSMC had to go back home because they couldn’t’ find skilled workers. That’s for one plant with a 40 billion $ federal grant to TSMC. We’d need 100s to match Russia.
Ukraine’s new tactic is to send men on foot, armed only with rifles, across mine fields hoping to reach the first line of defense and then fight hand to hand in hopes of losing three times as many men as Russia?
“That’s so crazy it just might work!” said the penis pianist President of Ukraine. It’s actually just fucking stupid. But then Ukrainians are the people who thought it would be a good idea to trust their security to a country on the other side of the world that doesn’t give a shit about then and will discard them like a used condom like every other ally they’ve ever “defended”.
You assume Ukrainians will be willing to continue to throw themselves on the funeral pyre at a certain US controlled rate of burn and that Russia will not change its own tactics from the current one of just absorbing the attacks.
That sort of thinking is precisely the narcissistic curse that has beset the west- forgetting the other side has a vote.
US is not spending some relative tiny part of their GDP to keep Russians being killed. That is simply not what is happening. The US and Nato have exhausted their stocks of military equipment/munition they paid for in full. Now they spend even more to make their MICs take up production to replenish those stocks which they still can’t or have problems to do so. The costs for the west are already too high. Let’s not talk about the western economies and consumer inflation.
Russia’s military spending is about 1/10’th of the US alone. They still produce way more functional military equipment and munitions (and in bigger quantities!) consuming far lower production costs.
War for the west is simply a very expensive adventure. The US is just smart enough to force their vassals to do their dirty work, while selling them their crappy and overpriced toy weapons in return. The question is, if European leaders are really that stupid not to see the scam or just so devoted to serve the US administration, no questions asked. I guess is both. Poland is very glad to call US their “friend”. For that they make big deals with money they don’t have to buy stuff that they don’t really need but stuff that will likely make them proxy no.2 in the (US) attempt to defeat Russia. This is WW3 alright. The signs are everywhere. People are dying already.
I do not disagree entirely but let’s say USA spent $100 billion in aid to Ukraine (let’s say it is $200 billion). The GDP of United States is 23 trillion – which makes $200 billion just 0.8% of the yearly GDP.
Yes, the west is drowning in debt, expensive production, lack of industrial capacity, even lack of educated, skilled and willing workforce but at least on paper, the costs of funding Ukr are negligible, AT LEAST ON PAPER.
I do not disagree in general with most of what you said but you know America’s politicians look at these “paper numbers” and the media does too – nobody cares about the background story and when you put it this way – < 1% of GDP spent to "weaken Russia" sounds like a great narrative you can sell to the average American.
This is why I mentioned my own critique of the Slavyangrad theory that I conveyed – that things are much more complicated than they appear.
You forgot that US Debt is now running at 125% of GDP and growing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S
I get your point, but still … putting lipstick on that whole thing won’t make it look like there is that kind of agenda there in my opinion. The west is donating things to Ukraine that are about 10 times more expensive than what Russia is using. Meanwhile the kill ratio on the ground is about 10:1 in favor of Russia. Looking at that, there is a difference of about 100 between the amount of money the west “invests” and what they get back in return. No lipstick in the world can make that look good. Playing with relative numbers is a tricky thing anyway.
If Kiev did manage to kill 1 Russian for every 3 Ukrainians, that would have to be high quality “meat”. Well-trained, well-motivated and decently supplied. But all that is in short supply. Obviously Russia doesn’t want and will probably avoid battles with a 1:3 nature, but at least there would be the advantage of being sure that it’s only Nazis who are dying on the Ukie side.
Davis and other fail to understand that the SMO is truly truly truly NOT regarded as a “war” by Russian leadership. thats not just semantics. Russia basically considers this as a kind of combimed arms police operation. In other words, Russia is INTENTIONALLY going slow, steady and BARE MINIMUM. if Russia were really losing or in fear of losing any advantage, it would simple escalate to a full war, which would be devastating. The very fact that RF is nowhere near that point is clear indication that Russia truly believes it is accomplishing all its tasks according to plan. not sure why this is so hard for the West to grasp.
Full-on war would be 21 bridges across the Dneiper blown up, all the 750 kV power lines and transformers gone, most of the 350kV lines and most of the rail lines gone, many more workshops and offices in the cities bombed out, and probably paradrops to equip a (currently non-existent) resistance operation. So no, it’s just an SMO.
But if NATO escalates, keep in mind Putin’s words from the summer of 2022: “You haven’t seen anything yet.”
“Like a chicken without it’s head” reminds me of something my dad said that is apropos here vis a vis Ukraine and NATO. When I was you I’d grad a chicken and hold it while dad would shop the head off. Sometimes one would wiggle free and dad would say to catch him. I responded “he’s running all over the place” to which dad said “that’s because he can’t see where he’s going.”
That’s Ukraine and NATO in a nutshell – they can’t see where they’re going. But they’re charging ahead anyway, and to a disastrous end. As Bob Dylan so eloquently put it “the moral of this story, the moral of this song, is simply that one should not be where one does not belong.” And that’s NATO, too stupid, in their hubris and arrogance at taking over the world, to realize they should have stayed far away from eastern Europe. History shows nothing good comes of meddling in that part of the world.
Mac
” they should have stayed away from Eastern Europe. History shows that nothing good comes from meddling in this part of the world. ”
Well, we both could have done well, but especially us Eastern Europeans ! Especially as we saw it from a long way away, the optics of the USA were also different, because before we saw a kind Uncle Sam in it handing out Hershey chocolates to the children, but now that we see it up close, we had to experience that this is not Uncle Sam but the disgusting Jerry Epstein who lures our children with chocolate !
Can you remember where nearly 60,000 Ukrainian children disappeared to ?
And to add an insult to injury, Hershey chocolate tastes like vomit.
Oh, it’s not that bad. There are better examples, like not just air-enhanced wonder bread but most American bread AND it costs 3 times what it should and tastes like, well – doesn’t really have a taste, like air. And I shop for the hi-end European-named breads and still get stiffed.
Guess the strategy is to throw the bread out of ‘bread and circuses’ and just double up on the circuses.
There’s a reason Judge Napolitano hasn’t had Davis on the former’s YouTube channel in about two months.
To be fair to Col. Davis, 19FortyFive is totally behind the Ruling Clique MIC military fantasy — and its audience mostly clearly thinks this is still 1945 and the US has a real military. My guess is that Col Davis was trying to get a camel’s nose under the tent by disparaging Russia first — and then noting that things might not go US/NATO’s way.
His basic point — that the Ruling Clique should be thinking about the interests of the US population first — is an important one, even if he had to play to the crowd by slagging Russia first.
Reading his earlier articles he’s mostly spot on and commentary section calls him a Putin asset – I think he got a warning from up top and switched.
Well said Gavin. My thumbnail sketch went the other way… But you’ve made a solid point.
Bullshit. Just tell the truth as you see it.
1945 is a total fabrication.Their existence was unknown 12 months ago.Now the main stream media and some indy pundits are quoting their nonsense daily to give them some gravitas.They are based in South Korea,what does that tell us?Qui Bono?
Excellent remark, Gavin. I fully agree to your point that is also suggested by Larry when he stated Col. Davis has to play along to be listened to and not ostracized. I think it is not possible to publish in 19FortyFive a paper suggesting we need to negociate because Russia may win this conflict, and also refuting the narrative about Russia failures and huge losses.
When you have been part of an organisation all or most of your life, it is next to impossible to face the fact that this organisation is not what you thought it was, never mind the opposite.
The reason being that the immediate thought is that YOU are by implication not what you and others thought you were.
You are then facing (you think) complete psychological breakdown which is an existential terror.
So you reject it and attack the person who obviously wants to destroy you by telling you these horrible things.
I would like to add a comma to your “No Shit Analysis” so that it reads’No, shit analysis…’ There is a lot of that in OTANistan.
Bravery under fire is commendable. However, it is not only no indicator of anaytical skill, it is no indicator of charecter or morality. Don’t know Davis, accept what your sources told you about his bravery under fire. However, there were many Waffen SS and Wehrmacht war criminals who were also brave under fire. The continued slaughter of a generation of 404 men is genocidal war crime. That it is carried out by state actors and organized military formations does not change that simple truth.
The ‘sinking’of OTAN’s US instigated attack on RF using nazi-led 404 cannon fodder, seems just ends, Doesn’t it. However, what comes next as the inescapable reality batters down the the EOL ‘Narrative?’
That is key question to be answered.
Will a more sane oligarchal faction remove the present regimes before nuclear annihilation? Will 500 years of west Europa imperialism crumble more or less peacefully, and a new multipolar world emerge and grow? Will the world explode in a Demonic Nihilist götterdämmerung OTAN indulges in an orgy of mass suicicide? Will anyone in OTANistan notice?
There is another possibily, as well. Will the OTAN Demonic Nihilist götterdämmerung be parried?
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230916/krasukha-russias-new-unrivalled-electronic-warfare-system-1113415601.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230912/what-does-putin-mean-by-weapons-based-on-new-physical-principles-1113316548.html
(Note: if you can’t access the links in your location, simplest answer is to get a good VPN. Proton VPN has a free version that you can try. Select a server in a different region, country and keep trying until you get access.)
Interesting timez …
You worry too much. The people in charge don’t even care if the US collapses. They have Israel.
Well, a full nuclear exchange will end the Khazarine state presence in the Levant as well.
@ Curious
You made a very important point. Most of the Zionist leadership is not suicidal, and they are in the best position to put the brakes on the neocons. Without legitimizing the settler government, pressure should be publicly put on them to disavow that purportedly Jewish elite. Public pressure will remind the world that the biggest single motivation for the West waging war in the Ukraine is to empty out the land for a second Zion. The “Heavenly Jerusalem” project of the Chabad is the only motivation which explains why the West is committing economic suicide and destroying Western legitimacy in a lost cause.
Quite amusing as neo-con shills are starting to show more honestly he’s going opposite. I have read pretty much all of his articles at 45′ and Col Daniel Davis seemed to be on the right track earlier in this war than he is now and instead echoing all the MSM lies.
Colonel Davis was a guest of Judge Napolitano until recently. I believe he’s also a whistleblower about the war in Afghanistan. And regarding the war in Ukraine, he always made very similar analyzes to Larry or Colonel Mcgregor. I always heard him say that the war was caused by the US and that Ukraine had no chance. If this other recent article helps:
https://sputniknewsbr.com.br/20230817/especialista-militar-dos-eua-kiev-deve-congelar-conflito-para-nao-perder-o-resto-de-seu-territorio-29944030.html
The link to the Sputnik article refers to same 1945 Davis article that Larry is writing about. The Sputnik article is a short summary about Davis’ 1945 article that Larry examines and comments on.
Link to the 1945 article:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/
Link to the Sputnik article, translated into English:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/
Looking at Davis’ past articles in 1945 reveals a list where he skillfully blends acknowledement of the reality of the SMO development and RF superiority in material, logistics, tactics and leadership with ukronazi propaganda lies and neocon talking points.
He acknowleges that 404 cannot win, while adding 404 lies and agitprop about how the RF has taken more casulties and material losses they struggle to replace that 404, and the RF population is tiring of the war, and that a ‘frozen conflict’ is attainable and desireable for the RF.
Yes, LtCol Davis did publically critisize the Pentagon, while still on active service for incompetance in Afghanistan in 2012. What disiplinary actionm did he face? None… He rertired, suposedly started a ‘think-tank’ “Democracy Awake”, (no trace on the Internet) and is listed now as a “Senior Fellow & Military Expert at Defense Priorities,” a Koch brothers funded deep-state shell lobby group.
Contrast that with Marine LtCol Sheller, almost 10 years later in 2021, who did the same thing as Davis and ended up relieved of command, jailed, court-martialled, and kicked out of service.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/09/28/marine-officer-who-blasted-leaders-over-afghanistan-withdrawal-brig.html
Skillful propagandist that Davis, indeed. Don’t be taken in.
Thanks for your reply, Curious. I really appreciate your attention and your sympathy. Something very rare on the internet. Just last week I heard several people on the judge’s show mention what Ray McGovern said about 9/11 – I think last week too – and I asked for the link here and no one responded. By the way, if Curious has listened to Ray, I’d appreciate it.
But going back to Larry’s strangest post ever for me, I myself had no intention of returning to this post until I saw Curious’ reply and I’m going to trust in your advice. But I’ve never actually heard Colonel Davis say anything like this article. On the Judge’s show I always heard Colonel Davis make analyzes very similar to those of Larry and Mgregor. I even heard the colleague in the tanks praise him! And Judge’s shows are still available. I appreciate much less the analyzes of Tony Shaffer in Judge show. A Russophobe who like calls Putin thug but never justifies it. He likes more to say that loves Reagan and must have seen all the Rambo movies in the 80s. Which is another mystery for me, as a European. Not the movies – its ok – but how Americans think it’s normal to have an actor as President. In Ukraine did not give good results. The first requirement for a US President should be to know the world as well as the US. Because a US President is a world leader! And I don’t want to be disrespectful to Reagan’s fans, but he also did a lot of shit! Even if doesn’t compare himself to a corrupt person like Biden.
Back again to Coronel Davis, I still thought about something that happens a lot since the press became digital. It has happened to me, because I also write for newspapers as an economist. They have a database with the name and signature of opinion columnists that they place at the end of the articles that external collaborators send by email. And once I also started receiving comments in my email that had no relation to the article I sent. The newspaper had put my name on another economist’s article and vice versa. And I’ve know more cases. Newspapers have fewer and fewer employees and reviewers. And I also find it strange that Larry had never heard of a whistleblower in the US?! Who I had already heard of in Europe. But thanks for everything and I’ll follow Curious’s advice.
Paulo,
This may be the Ray McGovern interview with Judge N. that you’re looking for:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzqHc_unkA0 Have listened to to it yet, Can’t listen to everything! (laughing)
This is not with Judge but address the same topic 8 years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxrMGMfioyQ
This link is to Judge N. youtube channel and archived shows here:
https://www.youtube.com/@judgingfreedom
This is Davis’s list of artcles he wrote for 1945. I scrolled thru the first page and skimmed the first 8-9 articles to get a feeling for his style and content, which I described.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/author/daniel-l-davis/
Davis, IMO, is a deepstate shill. Yes, he went after the Pentagon’s handling of Afghanistan. However, he was already eligible for full-pension retirement. No consequences, allowed to retire with full pension.
This tells me that Davis went public with his indicting Afghan report having the backing of a faction of powerful’starred’ controllers, ie. he had support, promting of some 3 and/or 4 star generals – who had the support of some powerful congressmen, senators with powerful donors to protect them all.
Davis stated that starting a political think tank as the objective for his retirement when left active duty and gave it a deepstate name – “Democracy Awake”and there is no internet trace of it. Now how many 30 yrs of service Army LtCols have that as an objective for a happy retirement? Probably got the idea in OCS, right? (laughing)
The contrast with an honest combat commander who had it with stupid Pentagon decisions killing his men and went public in 2021, USMC LtCol Sheller’s treatment is telling, IMO. Sheller wasn’t running an op for some ‘starred controllers’ he was sincere. Semper Fi! No pension or ‘think-tank’to fall back for a real combat commander. He has my respect.
Then Davis turns up at think tank lobby outfit a couple of years after his retirement funded by the Koch brothers, that supposedly has the support of US senator Rand Paul, among others. This connects the dots good enough for me to supprt my contention.
Tha Davis tailors his comments for his audience, as you mention that you’ve heard him before more in line with ‘dissident’ analysts on the Judges show, is par for the course, IMO, for a paid agitprop functionary. Consider it for yourself.
Thanks for the Judge show. I don’t understand how I didn’t find it. And thanks again for your attention. I really trust you. I don’t intend to get to know better a guy I saw in 3 videos or your country on the other side of the Atlantic. As I normally trust Larry. Cheers.
I just want to say, fuck Tony Shaffer. People like him are the reason this world is so fucked up. Boneface types are just clowns, and Tony Shaffers are the ones doing the real damage.
BTW, if you think that “US President is a world leader”, than you have fallen for Hollywood-Rambo-BS too. US President is just a media figure for a crime syndicate masquerading as a country. Tony Shaffer is among the lower ranks, so he could be called a capo, or a soldier, or a even a thug. It seems that he is sensitive to the last word the most.
Ha ha ha 🤣🤣🤣 I love that scene. The bodies bouncing off of deck equipment.
Wonder what the US will be like in 20 years?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHxh_sQHH0E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkU5OC2D0Hc
I looked up some of Davis’s sources = The Moscow TImes — a newspaper that was given away free when it still published the paper version once a week. That stopped and they went on line in 2017. They are now head quartered in Amsterdam.
Newsweek. The Institute for the Study of War. The Rand Corporation,
Larry is about the same age I am 70. I am convinced that is part of the problem the people who know things aquired from experience (very important) are dying off .
More alarming the average person in the Ivory Coast (lived there) believes things like their President Félix Houphouët-Boigny became a snake at night through vodoo like things.
Larry can relate to this he lived in Guatamala among unsophisticated superstitious people.
This is in a good book by V.S. Naipaul. It is true.
not sure how “sophisticated” it is to needlessly drop atomic bombs on two mostly civilian populated non-strategic towns🤷
The good Lt. Col. is a believer, judging from his words. He believes in the myth of the United States — a Constitutional Republic and shining beacon of liberty in a dark world — but not the reality of Deep State America.
Pity. There are many like him out there. People who believe in “the system” and made their professional lives in it. Hard to pull your head out of that…
Unless, of course, you somehow manage to find yourself on their bad side for some reason — like exercising Free Speech.
Your point, Larry, that Lt. Col. Davis might have been playing “what if” in his article to avoid ostracism reinforces my point that he is a believer — because only a believer would be worried about being rejected by their “church”.
If the stupefied American leadership needs guidance on how to negotiate a lasting peace in the Ukraine, they would do well to study the Russian Federation’s security proposal dated December, 2021. However, bringing reality to bear, those terms were then; this is now. Peace will require far more than the complete demilitarization, complete denazification, and constitutionally enshrined political neutrality of the Ukraine. What are the new terms the West will face if the Russian Federation decides to entertain the duplicitous, oleaginous cretins of the West at the table of negotiations? Not many know, but of this everyone can be assured: they will be far harsher than those proposed in December, 2021…and with no way to renege.
Ukraine LOSING In 2023? Almost NO CHANCE They’ll Overcome DISASTROUS Counteroffensive: Lt Col Davis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH2mmqhTpi8
I FF you, Col McGregor, Duran and Berletic and I have an observation and a warning…
I have observed that re Russian casualties WE HAVE NO SOLID DATA, nor any awareness of the breadth and depth of corruption in Russian society.
In other words, we don’t have any solid 3rd party info on how well or I’ll it’s going for them.
For example, it took at least six months for Bakmut to fall, and yet the reported ratio of losses at that time was 9 to 1.
Yes, I agree that the vaunted Summer Offensive was an abject failure. But…
We’ve only seen a few Brit or German tanks destroyed, and we hear nothing about Russian losses.
My warning is that the lack of balance in all of your reporting re Russia’s current challenges (inflation is high and interest rates are 15% or higher…. these economiç çhallenges go unmentióned.
Watch yourselves for Hubris. After all, Bush 2 declared Mission Accomplished and then all hell broke loose.
Your message is the life raft to which Blinken clings. It is still POSSIBLE that Russia could collapse….. after all…… blah blah…..
The problem with this wait and see, Jim, is the risk the US is running of an Afghan style debacle which NATO will not survive.
You can entertain all manner of beliefs about what might happen, but your wish list has to include your fear list FOR BALANCE and that includes what you do know about your own side’s limitations. Once you complete that picture the urgency for the US to secure some sort of face saving end to hostilities right now, hits you in the face. The gamble on a favourable outcome is reckless to the point of madness.
But if you know that such a face saving deal is now off the table and you are stuck with this war, what do you do then?
Throw Ukraine under the bus and Biden with it, while there is still time for your party recover before the elections.
“a few” ???????? Britain has a total of around 114 Challenger tanks in total with around 80 available. Of those some were stored at Sennelager in Germany – 14 were transported to Poland in mid-2022. They were passed on to Ukraine – 2-3 are now deceased…………there is no great stockpile of spares since UK needs those for the remaining tanks…….no ammunition has been produced since 2006
Leopards- Germans have few functioning tanks. They stripped an active tank division to supply Ukraine. They are now scouring for Leo 1 tanks which burn like magnesium
Finland supplied Leopard towing tanks and mine-clearer units – all now deceased
It is not as simple as you make out – look how many tanks Ukraine had in 2022 – more than the entire European members of NATO – Europe no longer has the huge tank armies of 1970s – BAOR in 1970s was bigger than entire British Army today
You are aware of the challenges facing the Russian economy in the last year with the biggest sanctions package ever? Outside of swift? The USSR went to the bottom just with the drop in oil. You shouldn’t look at the Russian economy, still very dependent on the price of oil and especially in a year in which it had to respond to the biggest sanctions ever enacted, as you look at the US economy. The same economic indicators can have different reasons and solutions. This interest rate in the US was blowing up the US and the world. But Russia hasn’t changed interest rates for 1 year and has already explained the reasons and remedies. First it controlled the ruble and Russia also gains nothing from a very strong currency and now it is controlling imports with the interest rate, which has very little impact on the Russian economy and especially on essential goods of domestic origin. Just ask a Russian if food prices have gone up in grocery stores. And the big private investment doesn’t come from the banks either. But from the oligarchs who now don’t take their money abroad. In the West we are much worse.
“I have observed that re Russian casualties WE HAVE NO SOLID DATA, …”
You have observed wrong.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
I think that even given the truth serum, they’d continue the narrative they self-hypnotize themselves into.
In Afghan War, Officer – Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis – Becomes a Whistle-Blower
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/world/asia/army-colonel-challenges-pentagons-afghanistan-claims.html
Larry, I read 19fortyfive.com (as they spell it in the address bar) because I DON’T agree with it. I’m on the same page as you, Simplicius, Big Serge, Moon of Alabama and so many other writers on the pro-Russia side. But I don’t want to fall into the confirmation bias trap of reading only what I already believe. So I’ll check to see if the pro-Uke sites have anything reality-based to say. That happens only rarely, but it’s good to know what the always-wrong side is squealing.
Believe it or not, Davis is the only person I’ve seen on that site who is even half-connected to reality, as in “Ukraine MIGHT lose.” The other writers are like a parody of anti-Russian cope, to the point where it’s not worth the electrons of global warming CO2 that would be generated for me to light up my computer screen to see their stuff. I enjoy the comments to Davis’s posts because 75% of them are screeching “Go back to Moscow you commie!” (It used to be 90% of them were like that, but the truth is sinking in with some people, or the pro-Russian commenters are getting bolder.) So you’re picking on the (half) good guy at that miserable site. With justifiable criticism, of course. Imagine — if Davis is that wrong, how bad do you think the rest of 19fortyfive’s crew is?
I went to the site and immediately stumbled upon it:
…80 Percent Of Russians Consider Their Country To Be ‘Great’ As Putin Begs North Korea For Weapons…
Sorry of course, but it’s just nonsense. Cheap Ukrainian propaganda. Why are you wasting your time?
I doubt Larry and many other commentators here would regard themselves as “pro-Russian”. They are certainly pro reality, which leads to acknowledging the great success Russia is having and the grounds for its continuing success, ultimate victory, and the collapsing West.
Indeed Larry might even be pro-American and anti-DC, for an America willing to face reality, treat other countries honestly and with respect, and start to do the really hard work of rebuilding itself as Russia did under Putin.
They might be pro Russia kicking the living daylights out of DC’s policy and revealing its utter evil and incompetence, in the hope that will help the US break the deep state chains and wokeness that are strangling it.
Bazza
It’s not so much about being pro Russia, as anti neocon. The neocons are a globalist cancer on our nation states – i’m in the UK – and we want it to end. I felt the same way when we were fighting, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Serbia etc.
NATO is a revolting, warmongering Cold War relic that should have been shut down in 1990. It is making us all poorer, damaging our nation states, and murdering millions of folk around the globe.
I do think there’s much to admire about Russia’s rise since the horrors of the nineties, but that’s another topic.
I agree. I read 19fortyfive for the same reason, and have come to the same conclusions.
LTC Davis needs his paycheck and must satisfy his bosses or customers, as do we all. To this end, in his articles he loudly repeats the anti-Russian “Russian Army is incompetent, poorly trained/equipped, losing men/materiel at huge rates, stalemate” propaganda of the day.
But his articles need to be carefully read. I believe he may be a master of the bureaucratic art known as “Cover Your Ass”. Having dutifully repeated the propaganda du jour, he usually goes on to explain in detail the magnitude of the challenge facing Ukraine, the scale of effort required to overcome these challenges, the unlikelihood of ever achieving the scale of effort required, all without coming out and explicitly saying Ukraine is bring crushed and has no chance though this is his obvious conclusion.
I recall an incident in my career:
I attended a project review for a project that was in serious delay, Project Manager and the contractor were promising it completion by year end, they would “do their very best to make it happen”. This was July. My estimate was 10 to 12 months to complete, i.e., May to July next year.
In the organizational culture of the company, the word and phrase “impossible” and “it can’t be done” were unacceptable and never uttered. Instead ambiguous phrases such as “do our best” were used.
The VP asked me for my opinion, I responded “Maybe 1%, if they are very lucky”.
Through use of appropriate code words/phrases conforming to the org. culture, the correct message, a true picture of the situation was received and understood, honor of all satisfied, nobody lost face.
It finished in April/May.
Back in 2016 during the Battle Of Aleppo, the increasing cope in the Westernaganda – which had to be compulsorily repeated in every article – that “Assad can never recapture Aleppo”, which morphed to “Aleppo is totally destroyed so capturing it isn’t going to help Assad, whose forces have been smashed”, to “Assad will massacre everyone if he captures Aleppo”, after which Aleppo disappeared down the memory hole.
We are now in the Stage II equivalent in Westernaganda over Ukranazistan.
I noticed one thing about many of the analyses by western pundits when they speak about negotiations and that is their obsession with the west preferred outcome while being totally blind to the desires of the opposing party. It seems such approach is doomed to fail. It is similar to the much talked about peace initiative in Saudi Arabia where only one party was invited.
I have a brother who for years has been abusive in our relationship. I finally put a stop to it. He insisted he wanted to maintain our relationship. So i told him the only way was for us to sit down and have a talk. He ignored me and blew me off. However he keeps emailing me stating the desire to have a relationship while ignoring my one demand to fix it. This is how the west behaves towards Russia.
We have a Military Colonel quoting The Washington Post & CNBC Report as supporting evidence of his claims.
Well, hardly any need for actual battlefield reports then. Glad the military has outsourced all those pesky details to MSM for Military Analysis.
He’s only reflecting America’s long term foreign policy:
“When we win, we win… when we lose, we win. We always win”…
I prefer Hollywood director Rove’s brilliant revelation:
We turn fantasies into realities and when those don’t pan out, we move onto new fantasies to be turned into new realities while the world is left to clean up the debris and watch, dumbfounded.
I prefer Hollywood director Rove’s brilliant revelation:
We turn our fantasies into realities and when those don’t pan out, we move onto new fantasies to be turned into new realities while the world is left to clean up our debris and watch us, dumbfounded.
The collective West will have a proverbial nervous breakdown. Yes, I am serious. Check out Dr. Mate about how society dysfunctions affect individuals. And this is what will make the West very dangerous. Invest in companies selling anti-anxiety meds and take money out once SHTF.
”Ukraine can prevail”🤣🤣🤣
Nuland&Co trust their highest bet on bunkers that safeguard them to the new era. As if they would effing know the reality they will face after the dust has landed and its time for them to open the curtain, rise and shine 🤬
I will agree with the Colonel that Russia does not have air “Supremacy”… that is evidenced. “Dominance” yes, but “Supremacy” no. That would require an actual war, not an SMO. They can hit anything important to them via Zircons, and most missiles and drones get through, They’re planes are not flying Willy nilly throughout the whole of Ukraine or nothing like that. And the recent Black Sea shows Ukraines Air Force is hardly “decimated”.
The other thing I’ll give him is some of his descriptions and Russian mistakes were accurate, regardless of why, and they had to recalibrate, they have improved and they have learned from mistakes.
Like right now, regardless of Snake Island being a lame rock, they would have had to endlessly defend, they should’ve kept it. Just my opinion.
None of that changes that Ukraine has already lost.
Ukraine had around 120 fighterjets before the war
How many are left ?
I guess not too many
If Russia destroyed only 1 a week …..
One way this turns is for one credible figure to go to Ukraine and return and give factual witness to conditions. This would be like when Walter Cronkite visited the war in Vietnam & returned to give witness that NO the US is not prevailing.
Not sure who that would be. Perhaps the Pope or the Dalai Lama.
Let’s apply Occam’s Razor to the endless supply of propaganda/misinformation:
A. None of the analysts is deluded or lying; each is conjuring a “moral bandaid” he/she hopes will stick with the listener to cover up the naked pursuit of his own self-interest: i.e. Ukraine is winning/Russia is losing; just one more ____ wonder weapon or new tactic; save “democracy” blah blah.
The simple fact is: Ukraine is being DELIBERATELY depopulated. The Russians are replaying their operation at Kursk. So obvious.
B. Why would US officials do this? As Harry Truman said “first you make the policy then you do the staff work [sic]”.
Senior Nazis had numerous reasons in 1943/4: curry favor with the boss for career promotion; steal art; stroke their sadism against hated ethnic groups; receive supplies for hopeless ground operations among commanders who loved war; or they didn’t know what else to do.
C. qui bono?
This has been US policy for both (R) and (D) since Georgia- McCain, Obama, Clinton, Biden, huge majorities of US congress and Deep State etc.
Perhaps so many US officials have their hands in the Ukrainian till/grift that a negotiated settlement with Russia, followed by inevitable war crime trials over bioweapon labs and death squads and theft of hundreds of $billion$ in aid, will lead to a shortage of rope.
We need Clarence Darrow.
“”By the end of the summer of 2023, Russia had been reported to have lost half its tanks and a staggering 300,000 troops reported to have been killed and wounded. By any objective measure, Austin’s goal of weakening Russia was being graphically accomplished.””
Now I am in a small Russian city with 47,000 inhabitants. Today I was in the cemetery, where I discovered 21 soldiers’ graves. These are those killed in the special operation. There are only 120 million inhabitants in Russia. A simple calculation shows that the killed Russian soldiers are 51,000.
Colonel Davis needed to learn arithmetic rather than dig trenches with a sapper shovel.
Rough estimate, but it seems close enough.
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats
How does Russia compute its inflation, like we do now or like we did in 1990 or 1980?
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Can working class and senior Russians still afford pets? If they can, they are doing better than people in the US.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/19/economy/pet-inflation-petflation/index.html
Yes, Russians can afford dogs. There are about 7-10 dogs for 40 apartment 10-story houses. Small sometimes large types of Labrador or Shepherd. There are about three times as many cats, but they are not walked and difficult to count.
Pardon. One house of 40 apartments.
“There are two kinds of patriotism — monarchical patriotism and republican patriotism. In the one case the government and the king may rightfully furnish you their notions of patriotism; in the other, neither the government nor the entire nation is privileged to dictate to any individual what the form of his patriotism shall be. The gospel of the monarchical patriotism is: “The King can do no wrong.” We have adopted it with all its servility, with an unimportant change in the wording: “Our country, right or wrong!” We have thrown away the most valuable asset we had:– the individual’s right to oppose both flag and country when he (just he, by himself) believed them to be in the wrong. We have thrown it away; and with it all that was really respectable about that grotesque and laughable word, Patriotism.”
― Mark Twain
I can’t tell you exactly why but i do not trust Slavyangrad
Who exactly is behind them and where are they located?
Same strange feeling I have with DG
But then I may be a conspiracy theorist 😎
Gleb Bazov, founding blogger of the original Slavyangrad website (slavyangrad.org) is a Torontonian (IIRC), born in Mariupol.
He offered some of the best, most thoughtful coverage of the original UA Civil War in the Donbas. The Telegram channel has a team of writers, but AFAICT he’s still there at the top of the totem pole.
Gleb also has twitter/x account… https://twitter.com/gbazov
FWIW, I find he/them the most trustworthy of the lot.
I will supplement my calculations a little.
In April, 2023, the number of graves was 15. That is, the total number of losses in Russia is 38,400 people. Today in September – 53,500 people. Total losses of Russia ~ 2500 people/month or 83 people/day.
“The longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker.” It seems to be the at-first-sight premise for anybody with a bit of historical knowledge. Just as predicting that the more you exercise, the stronger you will become, not the weaker because you get tired. At the end of WW1, France had had the largest number of casualties AND the French army had become the most powerful in Europe. If we don’t have a nuclear total war between the real protagonists : Russia versus the USA because one of the two will have lost their nerves and launched a global first strike – which is the most likely outcome, as Mearsheimer has predicted – the alternative outcome of this war will be that Russia will have become the conventionally strongest country in the world, while Ukraine will have become an – albeit smaller – real country.
WWI was not ended with some battle but with a harsh siege on the central powers. The “peace” they reached was ” a 20 years armistice” as Joffre famously said.
Winning a war is not an easy game, but winning a peace is even harder.
It seems to me one on one the Ukrainian soldier is superior to the Russian in motivation, training and equipment. But that is useless information when the combined militaries are so clearly lop-sided. The Russian artillery and air-defense capabilities are devastating multipliers that obviate the individual Ukrainian infantryman’s superiority. No way for them to win.
Perhaps you are right when you say that the Ukrainian soldier is superior to the Russian in motivation, training and equipment. Or at least he was when this all began. Now? Maybe not. Too many of the motivated and trained Ukrainian soldiers are now dead, and their equipment has been destroyed.
The question now is, when does bravery become as thick as two short planks?
“It seems to me one on one the Ukrainian soldier is superior to the Russian in motivation, training and equipment.”
And your evidence for this assertion is….?
“It seems to me one on one the Ukrainian soldier is superior to the Russian in motivation, training and equipment.”
And you are basing that on what exactly?
Even western sources report about large numbers of freshly conscripted people being sent to NATO countries, in order to recieve very short training. On the other hand, all mobilized Russians have served earlier, and some even had combat experience from previous wars. How is that superiority in training achieved? I have served long time ago, and still would do better than those weekend-trained sons-of-guns.
Volunteers tend to have motivation, and forcefully conscripted tend not to. Russians have more contract soldiers (that are volunteers), than mobilized. Ukraine, not so much. Your motivation calculation seems off.
As far as superiority in equipment goes, what equipment exactly? There is a long wunderwaffe list. None of those turned out to be superior to “Russian junk”. Regular Ukro soldier gets AK-74, and a bulletproof vest that may or may not be bulletproof, because of rampant corruption (you can call it Ukrainian Roulette). Corruption and other problems are present in Russia too, but not on the same scale.
You clearly have spent so much time on the front line in both armies – amazing how you get to move between them. Do you think these soldiers are as “inspired” and “motivated” as American soldiers in Vietnam ? I recall “Green Beret” showing the patriotic fervour that makes American soldiers so fanatical in their fight for “US values” and “democracy”………..
Why you believe Russian equipment is “inferior” or Russian training is “inferior” or Russian motivation is “inferior” I do not know………..
Do you think Ukrainian soldiers are as “inspired” and “motivated” as Waffen-SS units ?
So, to summarize: this Lt.Col. Davis is essentially brawn without brains when it comes to Russian-Ukrainian issue. Either that, or he suffers from a very strong case of “Not Made in America” syndrome.
“Ultimately, the American government’s number one obligation (not merely responsibility) is to the people of the United States. ”
How can anyone write such and not follow up regarding that that responsibility is to the people of Hawaii, or West Palestine, or, you know, Americans? Was patriotism redefined recently?
I was just about to comment on that claim. It is top level comedy.
The best version for Ukraine is to surrender and kick out NATO, US and UK. This would free them of all the “ownership” of large companies, trusts and other organisations, who claim to own Ukraine in order that the Ukrainians will work as their slaves for the next 300 years.
I’ve read quite a few of Daniel Davis’s pieces. He flip flops between telling 10% of the truth and then reverting back to 2% truth. As if someone is limiting what he can actually say.
I suspect he wants to be the first person to “break the real news” just as soon as he is allowed to say it, and add past quotes to show how he was always the guy who got it right.
Like all these politicians that now say they were always against Lock Downs.
All those, so called western “experts”, can’t even acknowledge that Ukraine lost this conflict within the first 8 weeks. It was at the time when Zelensky was negotiating an end to the hostilities he started back in February.
It is Nato and the US waging a war against Russia now and has been since the first, so called “aid”, package they gave to Zelensky. They get one thing right, a defeat of Nato and the US will have grave consequences for both of them. They know Ukraine is lost, so they prepare the Poles and Germans to go in next. Let’s see if they have the guts to do it. It’s either give Nukes to Zelensky or toss his incompetent criminal ass aside and go with a fresh proxy into round two.
Meanwhile the financial situation in the US is reaching critical levels. Record breaking debt in the private, corporate and government areas, while inflation is coming back. Crude will go above 100$ and further. US plan to lower oil prices has failed. That is what they get trying to influence/manipulate the price in the first place.
It looks to me like narrative management.
The problem faced by “The manufacturers of reality, (media), is how to get from “Ukraine winning, Putin is toast” to “ Ukraine forced to unconditional surrender” without the abrupt change in direction snapping metaphorical necks.
It will be a rerun of “99% Clinton wins” transforming into a Trump victory.
It will be epic.
Many Jews support Ukraine in this war.
(E.g., https://www.adl.org/ukraine-crisis )
Here is one who does not:
https://www.normanfinkelstein.com/the-mask-is-off-why-ukraine-will-never-be-a-nato-member/
Norman G. Finkelstein is a brave outlier within the Jewish community, author of such books as
The Holocaust Industry and
Beyond Chutzpah.
In any case, I think he makes some excellent geopolitical points in his article.
Would that America’s elite had his acumen.
If Russia had retreated its forces back to Russia and the Ukrainians had taken back the 20% taken by Russia, i would say that maybe the Russians are not doing well. But that is not what i see if i look at the map. This is one of the reasons why i no longer watch main stream news for just about anything. They keep pushing a version of reality that is not apparent to anyone and use experts to back up their version of events like General Petraeus, the only CIA director in the history of the CIA that was caught passing secrets to his girlfriend while he was still married and it is all water under the bridge for these news outlets. What a great spy, move over inspector Clouseau Petraeus has arrived and is taking over the investigation.
Larry,
Another good article, thank you. It is not easy what you are doing. I can only try to imagine the flak you received on the daily.
Davis, he is chock full of stupid ……………. and stupid kills an incredible amount of people.
Regards
The article is correct overall, but I think it’s important to say “hold on, buddy” when people get carried away, to keep the realist side firmly grounded in reality, and to that end I have 2 pieces of criticism:
I don’t think Russia’s tank losses have been “minimal”, but they have certainly been massively fabricated, if I recall correctly, after the Ukraine started fielding western armor, Oryx’s daily “visually confirmed Russian armor losses” have decreased by a factor of 4. In fact, Oryx announced he would stop counting armor losses after he was forced to document the ongoing destruction of western armor.
I also think air superiority is what Russia has in the Ukraine, not air supremacy.
Other commentators have mentioned this already, but I’d cut Davis some slack – he’s by some distance the most realistic contributor to 19fortyfive and also a regular interviewee on (friend of the Judge) Scot Horton’s show. More than either of these things though is the fact that he blew the whistle on all sorts of BS the US were spreading about the debacle in Afghanistan. He’s not your usual US mouthpiece, far from it.
He’s just trying to define humiliating defeat as something resembling victory so the neocons can pack bags, go home & face we the people with head held high.
Of course there isn’t enough lipstick in the universe to disguise this pig. Pitchforks forthcoming.
Greetings from Spain. I have been following your blog for a short time. I have verified that it deals with the conflict between NATO and Russia from a military and public relations perspective. I understand this because there is a dynamic war going on. However, I would like to know your opinion or even an analysis of the financial war, not economic, just financial. I have been following Goldmoney analyst Alasdair McLeod for years. His articles deal mostly with precious metals, but since the war broke out in Ukraine, he analyzes the maneuvers that countries, especially Russia, are carrying out to undermine the purchasing power of the dollar and with it, the power to wage war on the United States. Joined. I recommend that you read his latest article published today on the Goldmoney website. The author believes that if the Russian government makes the decision to back its currency with gold it would be like exploding a nuclear warhead in the Oval Office. Otherwise, the possibility of the ruble collapsing before the dollar is most likely. As we all know, money drives wars. Without money there are no missiles, planes, ships, cannons, etc. Not even socks for the infantry. Thank you for your attention and until next time.
Hello to All.
I didn’t bother reading the Col. Davis piece in 1945.
What I find fascinating is Davis’ Orwellian approach to his essay. As Larry presents it, Davis’ readers would have to engage in significant “Double-Think” in trying to make sense of the essay.
Seems to me the article wants us to believe in straight line order that: Russia sux and is losing badly, we (US) are winning, but we have to negotiate and force Ukraine to accept territorial loss, this is to save lives – even despicable Russian lives, WE ARE THE GOOD GUYS & DON’T YOU FORGET IT!
I think that last link in the chain is why Davis penned his essay.
Difficult to claim we’re the Good Guys when DOJ is doing everything it can protect Hunter and Brandon…
Too much concrete has been poured to cement the Overton window to shift it swiftly. And since they can’t lose face by using a wrecking ball, they’re reduced to hammering and chiselling, with a small hammer and chisel to make as less noise as possible. How many poor Ukrainian sods will end killed or maimed until they loosen it enough to move it imperceptibly is irrelevant.
there is a song about that :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgo07X9p1R4&list=OLAK5uy_k2Rt76zanM8h0cJNq2Xvj8wFVWSIiiYrg&index=11
Italian stonemasons lament – Salvatore- Lu Polverone.
THE POWDER
When I have finished working
I sit a little in front of the door,
the master’s King passes by
the fuss makes me die
For the poor people bread and onion
And for the gentlemen what they want
For the poor bread and onions
And for the gentlemen what they want.
When I’m done working
bread and onion I have to eat.
The master’s King passes by
the fuss makes me die.
And the land how good it is
I work it, the rich man enjoys it.
When I have finished working
Before the door I go and sit down,
the master’s King passes by
The fuss makes me die
* N.B. the master’s “King” was a carriage.
The once Colonel is reduced to a chiseler ….
Larry, if you could, can you build on this analysis?: How big are the chances that the US/NATO can catch up to Russian war innovations?
(In my view the US/NATO has lost the arms race, but is that loss forever?)
Go back to 1983 – Reagan offered Andropov the SDI to break the rules of the MAD game of Sir Henry Kissinger KCMG.
BOTH the US AND the Soviet refused, and first the Soviet collapsed in 1991, now NATO. Kissinger had a fit!
Russia has learned from this hard lesson – Putin spoke recently of weapons with new physical principles, precise language from Reagan’s SDI !! Putin mean new, not simply the now well known hypersonics.
IOW – failure to innovate for SDI was a catastrophic blunder.
Engineers and scientists are not the problem – the oligarchy’s Game must remain, they say. The oligarchy has always hated science, new physical principles give them hysterics.
SDI, Strategic Defense Initiative, means nuclear lasers, fusion torches, new manufacturing processes, rocket propulsion, cheap electricity.
“new physical principles”
That is scary stuff. Ever since science and government funding has merged, real groundbreaking discoveries have no longer been made (in the west). Maybe Russia has?
I am halfway convinced that “tinkering” will lead to more groundbreaking innovations than “directed (theoretical-computer-modelling) research”.
“New physical principles” is just media buzzword intended to sound scary. Those physical principles aren’t really new, but functional weapons are. Key word here is functional.
USA have made a big rail gun. It’s useless. Some are making coil guns. They are toys. Kinzhal, on the other hand, is combat proven.
Catching up is hard to do if your adversary is moving ahead faster than you can run to catch him. Russia’s collaborators include China, Iran and now N. Korea. Hard core engineers all, who’ve had to be creative to get where they are in the face of all manner of restrictions. How creative the US/NATO will be when the sanctions tables turn is anybody’s guess, but I’m guessing “Not creative enough”.
Russia’s been fighting this war with its hands in its pockets. I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. Meanwhile, the USAF is asking the public to find an F35 that it lost over Charleston (of all places). The US/NATO have a deep hole they’ve gotta climb out of before they can start running.
Incredible story – F35 pilot ejected, it flew on with autopilot, no transponder, with the cabin open???
And it is so stealthy NORAD cannot find it??
Will D.C. say it was hijacked by a China balloon?
The sinking of the US empire will be infinitely more tragic and destructive than that scene from the Titanic.
The western mind set of fighting like your back is to the wall, or that you be driven into the sea like Dunkirk, does not pertain to Russia, they have plenty of land and the wall is 12 timezones behind them.
“Ultimately, the American government’s number one obligation (not merely responsibility) is to the people of the United States.”
FFS. Who with half a brain believes this tripe anymore? Ah, yes, Boobus Americanus. Idiocracy is here. Life imitates art.
It’s a “throw-away” line that must be included. My comment above was, why not add a throw-away line that people in East Palestine are US gov’t obligation, even if it is demonstrably doing diddly squat for them.
Its telling that there no longer si a pretense to care about the US population. I have seen a real lowering in US propaganda standards that cost (via taxes) top dollar, but barely is adequate for six year olds. Watching RT, I am impressed about how much higher the quality of their propaganda is, at a fraction of US costs. I guess inflation hits everything.
On September 16, Lt Colonel Vitali Berezhnoy gave a speech to the Poltava lawmakers in which he said that within a year from the start of the special op the Ukrainian armed forces lost more than four fifth of its initial number of the combat soldiers, they were either killed or became incapable to take further part in the military operation. Anyone on the Telegram platform can find the military man talking on NE. SACHAR on August 16.
Only one key sector of the once famous manufacturing might has remained largely but not fully in the American Republic – the design, manufacture, maintenance and servicing of the military gear (the rest of manufacturing got offshored mostly to China), it’s in each and every one of the 50 States, it employs one in seven of the US workforce (directly or indirectly), it’s the largest contributor to the GDP after services, the stock and debt of the companies engaged in the sector (Lockheed Martin and some 100 others) can be found in virtually every 401(k) pension plan, there are over 60m active plans in addition to the millions of already drawn pensions.
It’s this sector that has been driving the US foreign policy for decades, increasingly since the Afghan invasion, it compels the Republic to initiate and support world regional conflicts, the more of them and the more lasting the better, but avoiding any of the regional warring to morph into a global Armageddon, the outcome too uncertain.
The military gear and ammo are no different from any consumer good or a perishable article, a tank or a box of ammo has to be spent, consumed or at least amortised just as a fridge, a car or a box of chocolates that has to be eaten, nothing can cannot be stored forever.
The leadership of the sector, its advisory boards and other outfits of the hangers on are made up largely from the former politicians, high ranking apparatchiks and the retired military.
Ike did warn you the plebeians of America about the industrial military complex way back in 1961, it seems nobody has listened to the wise man since.
How could (say) Tulsi Gabbart make it to any of the lawmaking chambers if abandoning or even curtailing significantly the industrial-military complex power would lead to a noticeable loss of jobs, a painful reduction in the pension plans of the millions, and the disappearance of the sinecures for the retired members of the top echelon of the governing elites?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyBNmecVtdU </coJudge Napolitano interviewed Davis in May/2023: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkSCJrZSN6o
I actually think he has is eyes open as wide as Larry’s but he does a soft-shoe when delivering the bad news. This bedside manner allows him to get invited on to CNN and MSNBC and be the guy who’s “one of us” but delivers the “tough” but palatable reality.
He was a regular guest.
As an expat who has been traveling to Ukraine since 2013, then living there from 2021 until midway through 2022- it is my view Russia is not advancing and is unlikely to advance much further into Ukraine because they know they are going to outlast America and its western vassals.
And they want to minimize the pain & destruction to the majority of Ukrainian people- because they know that ultimately they will return to the Russian “family”.
The Russians understand that “force” rarely if ever “wins” peace and stability.
Russia had to create the situation where Ukrainians reach the conclusion they have a better future with Russia.
This point is fast approaching.
Eventually reality does overcome propaganda and empty promises.
With America and Europe on the cusp of a severe economic collapse- support to Ukraine- both military and economic- is going to slow dramatically.
As western support decreases, Russia is in position to offer secure, cheap energy supplies and a return to strong economic growth through the rebuilding and modernization of Ukraine.
With Russia’s strong economy, workers shortages and important role in BRICS- many benefits to both Russia and Ukraine for peace and stable relations.
Of course Russia will take over military and border control of Ukraine as this is the only way Russia can secure itself from NATO expansion or further American meddling in Ukraine- but I believe in time most Ukrainians will welcome this.
I also think that once Russia is in control and Ukrainians who fled Ukraine to Europe see that Ukraine begins to flourish under Russian control- many, even most of them will return given they are already facing increasing hostility in Europe as Europeans quality of life is declining- and is only going to get worse- quickly!
Given Russian losses have greatly decreased even as they increase their destruction of western weaponry- they are likely to continue with the strategy they are using.
Russia is winning this war on every front- and decisively weakening their long time primary foe- on the verge of ending American and western hegemonic colonialism once and for all.
It is the „Herrenvolk Fallacy“. As in Germany Americans believe in their inherent racial superiority and the inferiority of Asiatics and Russians.
It means that Americans are never going to lose or be inferior in any way because ineluctably every other nation is inferior in every key respect
This motivated the Wehrmacht snd Waffen-SS to great feats of sacrifice in the knowledge that no matter how many of them were killed the enemy could never triumph
This is US Doctrine. Even thermonuclear weapons cannot deflect from US victory
It is actually a religion – Cecil Rhodes’ British Empire sect. As Rhodes had written :
”Why should we not form a secret society with but one object the furtherance of the British Empire, and the bringing of the whole uncivilised world under British rule, for the recovery of the United States, for the making of the Anglo-Saxon race but one Empire.”
1877:Cecil Rhodes,”Confession of Faith”
https://pages.uoregon.edu/kimball/Rhodes-Confession.htm
Well Cecil was the son of a vicar in Bishop Stortford !
It was actually more Lord Milner’s crowd than Rhodes whose scholarships were actually funded by Alfred Beit since Rhodes’ bequest did not cover the costs
Thanks for the info.
I just looked up Alfred Beit on Wikipedia. “German-Jewish” and the employer of Cecil Rhodes. (((Some things))) never change.
Son of vicar of the King’s very own Church?
” Let us form the same kind of society a Church for the extension of the British Empire”.
Donations accepted, silent collection, please!
Myth: ‘Russian military losses exceed that of Ukraine’s’
One reason I consider this a myth is because if it was true then there would be massive unrest in Russia. The USSR, with twice the population of Russia, abandoned Afghanistan after losing 15,000 troops.
Just read: Selensky fires 6 deputy secretary of Defense.
incredible how many deputy secretary of defense they have
and all this, while the offensive is going on soooo Well
There is just too much money for one deputy to steal, I mean manage.
others want their turn now
I bet each one is pulling down $10,000/month and can produce a TV series…………
US taxpayers spread dollars around like crazy……..
Did anyone read about Euan Blair – son of The Tone – who has a $30 million turnover business loss-making for past 6 years -but valued at $1.4 billion because the Walmart Family invest in it and a few other US Plutocrats making Young Tone worth $327 million??????
Amazing what the US does for its “employees” like The Tone – who now has a Foundation with 800 staff…………….so it is hard o believe anyone in Zelensky’s crowd is getting less than $150,000 a year to shuffle paper and obscure larceny
Larry, here’s a slightly different version of the same article by the same author published in Newsweek: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/we-can-no-longer-hide-the-truth-about-the-russia-ukraine-war-opinion/ar-AA1gSNbf?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9ac034f8d6a541089b0e9606fa9e9583&ei=6
Russia has suffered 300,000 deaths? And no comments?
Here’s one:
https://sonar21.com/a-message-for-lt-colonel-retired-usarmy-daniel-davis/#comment-157488
I noticed a serious typo in this fine editorial. The sentence was We got Putin on the ropes.” It should be “{We got Putin on the tropes.”
Actually, Davis has been one of the more level headed military chiefs to comment on the war, but has felt obliged to kowtow to the MSM narrative on occasion. eg, the “300k Russian losses” meme which was introduced as it became clear that Ukraine’s were off the scale.
A rather obscene consolation prize for Ukrobots, to soften the blow.
I think most sensible folk have it at 7 : 1 in Russia’s favor, but it may have got even better since the calamitous counteroffensive.
Either way, Russia has still lost a lot of men and machines.
Incidentally, Davis has been quoted often by Alexander Mercouris throughout the conflict, and has had a pretty gloomy view of Ukraine’s chances from the start. Attempts to promote the idea of a stalemate is likely aimed at talking up a frozen conflict, which I doubt is going to fly with the winning Russians.
… “Davis is right that negotiations are the only hope of staunching the damage NATO is suffering, … .”
“Stanch” (stanching) is the word you’re looking for; not “staunch.”
Good article!
Over and over, commenters here are uniformly mystified, yet they refuse to expand their intellectual horizons, instead clinging stubbornly to the same limited set of supposed facts coming to the same triumphalist but tiresome conclusions. You simply can’t get it through your heads that there is a pervasive western ideology that makes people sincerely believe in fanciful feelsgood fairytale narratives instead of reality. I could explain it to you 100 different ways, and you would still be incredulous, you would still refuse to let go of your own narratives that blind you to the truth of what has happened to your societies over the past 60 years, along with all the people now in charge.
Since you refuse to understand the ideology in control of your own societies (and therefore logically in control of you), then how can you possibly make rational conclusions about what that same ideology will do in perpetrating this war? Do you see the problem here? Any conclusions you make are essentially meaningless, but you have the arrogance to refuse to consider rational arguments from people like me.
So be it. Wallow in your ignorance of the real enemy which is not Ukraine, it is western regimes that are fervently committed to the secular religion called woke leftist ideology, by which they make all their decisions and all their utterances.
Come let us reason together…
Why do you believe every dire proclamation coming from western media? You know already, or SHOULD know already, that western media is a monolithic propaganda machine, and yet you believe it when it tells you about (for example) the amount of ammunition production it currently has and will have. How can you believe it when you know it is just one small part of an overall deception campaign? Are you blind? But it fits your hopes, so you believe it. And that is but one minor example.
Next, you freely admit that Russia made strategic and tactical mistakes when it entered Ukraine for the first time. But now you refuse to believe they are not making other kinds of major mistakes, that they are now doing everything perfectly. Since that fits your hopes, you again refuse to consider any other ideas. Well here’s the rub, already explained in simple easy to understand language by Paul Craig Roberts among others: Russia is now stalemated by a Ukrainian army that is badly led, poorly trained, poorly supplied, on drugs, using a diminishing collection of motley weapons with sparse ammunition. And yet the Russians STILL can’t do anything except go slow, inch by incremental inch. They have yet to secure their own annexed territory, and at the rate they’re going it will be ten years until they do. Doesn’t that sound like something is wrong somewhere? No? Keep on hoping, I guess.
Next let’s talk about the biggest travesty of this war, Donetsk, which has been shelled continuously every day for over 9 years, without the Russians being able to do a single thing to stop it. Avdeevka? Maryinka? Those sources of shelling will just have to wait, because the Russians are too enamored of their go slow meat grinder approach. Any day now, real soon, the Ukrainian military will be down to its last man, right? At which point Russia will finally get off its ass and stage a major attack somewhere with all those 350,000 trained reserves stashed in the rear. That’s exactly what you expect to happen, but guess what, that’s sheer fantasy. Along with your other hopium predictions that western regimes will just implode on their own. This is laughable. Again you don’t understand the ideology that controls you, and yet you blithely make predictions about its ability to survive.
Getting back to a major Russian attack, you deliberately misinterpret what is being suggested. You exaggerate with a straw man, then arrogantly walk away thinking you’ve won the argument. But guess what? Russia doesn’t have to make a grand push to the Polish border. Instead they can make a decisive effort to conquer Avdeevka. Do it in one week. That would be more than enough to put real fear into every western regime, a fact you refuse to consider because (yet again) you don’t understand the ideology of your enemy. And once they are truly afraid, their only choice will be to stop all their war effort against Russia, because they will finally realize and finally respect the immense power Russia can throw against them.
Oh, but now I hear you whining about all the Avdeevka residents huddled in basements. So let’s do some math. How many civilians are really left in the Ukrainian fortification that currently passes as Avdeevka? 100? 1000? Nobody really knows, they’re all just guessing. I suspect the wasteland of Avdeevka contains no, zero, zilch civilians. Prove me wrong.
Meanwhile, how many civilian casualties are being caused each month in Donetsk? At about 5 per day, that’s at least 150 each month. Assuming Russia’s go slow tactics finally takes over Avdeevka sometime next year, the Donetsk body count will be at least 1800, not to mention the inevitable casualties of the Russian military themselves. So you tell me, is that a good trade-off? And BTW, who are you to judge, especially since you’ve never done any critical analysis on this topic except parrot the conventional wisdom.
Well at this point I’m disgusted with this topic, and there’s absolutely no doubt that the majority opinion will stubbornly refuse to change one iota, and will also be predictably outraged beyond all hope of rational discussion. So have a nice day, everyone, buh-bye.
You could have put all that into one concise paragraph.
Lots of words without saying very much.
Many here sympathise with PCR’s analysis and criticisms, but the truth is Ukraine is only one part of the jigsaw and for better or worse the Russian president has opted to take it slow for now. That could all change in a heartbeat, but we won’t know until it happens.
There are many other options for Russia/China to explore, like putting serious hardware into Cuba/Nicaragua/Venezuela etc.
Ukraine is not the only game in town.
Regarding Donetsk, if the UKies wish it, they can target it with long range missiles from a lot further out than Avdeevka.
The shelling of Donetsk, the city of roses, from the ruins of Avdeevka, is hard to take, but there are two possibilities worth considering.
1. It might take more Russian casualties to take Avdeevka than civilian lives would be saved in Donetsk. No politician would admit this, but I suspect it’s always the case that civilian casualties are less critical than the loss of trained and motivated soldiers.
2. A major justification for the SMO, as well as proof that Kiev is run by war criminals, is the shelling of a civilian city which lacks military justification. But at the same time, the Kremlin is not going to admit the logic of prioritizing the lives of soldiers. Wars are never good and they always demand hard choices.
“It might take more Russian casualties to take Avdeevka than civilian lives would be saved in Donetsk. No politician would admit this, but I suspect it’s always the case that civilian casualties are less critical than the loss of trained and motivated soldiers.”
It’s devil’s math, and it’s a taboo for obvious reasons. Avdeevka area have been entranched significantly more that the lauded Surovikin Line (and so was Peski and Marinka). Charging those positions is as bloody as it gets. I have no idea how many civillians have died in the last year and a half, but I’m sure that storming Avdeevka would cause more casualties in total. The question is, how many soldier’s lives is a civillian’s life worth? It’s devil’s math, and no choice is a good one.
P.S. Props for writing Avdeevka properly. Ukros putting “i” in everything is a crime of a special kind. A cultural genocide. Yet another done according to Western recipe.
Not 5 civilians die in the city of Donestk every day since the war began. Not one on average! In 2022, 460 civilians died in the oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk due to the war. In the part controlled by Russia. A territory larger than the Netherlands.
And as Glasshopper already said, taking Avdeyevka wouldn’t change anything! As much as hitting two war vessel desactived in dry dock. Warships don’t go to the workshop to change their oil like cars. When a warship enters a dry dock, its because it has major damage or will undergo a major transformation for months, if not 1 year or more. And with so many Russian warships in the Black Sea, where a storm shadow would have a real impact on the war, the UA or the brits opted to target two desactived warships? PR. But they failed to liberate the Danube ports as NATO intended. They are as bogged down in the counteroffensive as Eric in Avdeyevka and need diversionary maneuvers. The other point is that if Russia waged the war that Eric advocates, the US would quickly achieve the objective of isolating Russia. Economically, etc. Everything the US dreamed of when they provoked Euromaidan. But on the contrary, Russia has been gaining support since the beginning of the SMO. There really are people here who need to think better. And we all know so little.
There is a pattern with Storm Shadow strikes. They are attacking poorly defended targets. Active ships have CIWS. Those in dry dock, not so much.
Russian attack helicopters have been wrecking havock for months, operating from bases relatively near the front line. Those sound like a primary target for Storm Shadows, and yet I have not heard of a single strike.
There is no doubt that NATO is crunching salvo equations 24/7, and choosing targets based on that. They have fired ten, and three went trough. You don’t fire ten of those just like that. Someone competent calculated that ten would be needed.
Russia is already fighting the whole Western World. Avdeevka more or less doesn’t change much, not to mention Rabotino, or that hamlet called “five huts” that everyone have already forgotten.
Which American City will be nuked to blame Russia, Russia, Russia?
Russia will probably be happy to cede the Banderite lands of western Ukraine to Poland and Hungary. Let the Poles deal with the Nazis there. Enforce a demilitarized/no-Nato zone there as a buffer, and absorb the rest as a self-governing, independent state of Russia.
Russia will probably be happy to cede the Banderite lands of western Ukraine to Poland and Hungary. Let the Poles deal with the Nazis there. Enforce a demilitarized/no-Nato zone there as a buffer, and absorb the rest as a self-governing, independent state of Russia.
Most of the people who occupy high positions in the US and the EU are duds in terms of intellect, experience and character. They occupy their positions of power because they are compliant and malleable to the ultra-rich and their upper tier operatives in the CIA, and the rest of the “Five I’s”.
This is a decaying system that can’t revitalize itself because the political system has long been rigged through a system of bribery and blackmail. Allowing masses of low information and low thinking ability people to vote has resulted in a con-ocracy, not anything like what Athens or what some northern European tribal councils had.
I would guess the leadership of Russia and China have two prominent thoughts: that the Covid pandemic was/is a sign of dangerous desperation; that perhaps the West will destroy itself if left alone and given time.
I can tell you are no insider. In Most Western countries politicians are trained lawyers – no other career benefits from time spent in politics.
Lawyers are trained to sell any specious case yet not believe in what they are saying
Next group in politics spent time as journalists which means they can peddle a story without facts
Then you get the academic who graduated to think tank after college and needs a nice car so looks to who pays a cash bonus – writes a few papers for cash and gets assigned to a politician as apprentice
It is a business where being hired by lobby group or „consultancy“ pays for school fees and soft dollars provide weekend seminars with hookers
It is because most voters are stupid and lazy and happily gripe but lack the effort to resist or confront. Democracy is like a public toilet – most use it properly but those who soil it or trash it dictate what goes on
“Democracy is like a public toilet ”
No.
Democracy’s definition is a speculation of each limiting iterations of challenge to resort to facilitate continued enmazement.
A “good” demonstration was the “assisted” alchemy of “transcendence ” from dictatorship/terror/general outrageousness when in large part purpose was perceived to have been “achieved”, by “representative democracy” predicated upon ” Democracy’s definition is a speculation of each limiting iterations of challenge to resort continued enmazement.” and hence dissipated/integrated challenge in Chile in 1989 which formed part of “the copy book” to attempt to impose on Russia in low intensity application from 1989 onwards the terror component largely being limited to “economic matters.” since manifestly many in the population of The Russian Federation were not disciples of the J.C.R and knew how to fight in various presentations.
Consequently in a different bonbon was partly correct in suggesting the CIA was not asleep, but apparently failed to recognised that the C.I.A. and their associates were and continue to be – repetitive.
“It is because most voters are stupid and lazy and happily gripe but lack the effort to resist or confront.”
Your contention is misinformed although my purpose and those of others precludes outlining aspects of how and likely where you are misinformed.
“Any conclusions you make are essentially meaningless.”
Making conclusions are meaningless in any lateral process.
” but you have the arrogance to refuse to consider rational arguments from people like me.”
Well you have made conclusions and making conclusions are meaningless in any lateral process.
“And BTW, who are you to judge..”
Quite so which often catalyses a derivative of “Well everyone is “ENTITLED” to their “own” opinion.”
” That would be more than enough to put real fear into every western regime”
But is that their purpose ?
” And once they are truly afraid, their only choice will be to stop all their war effort against Russia”
But is that their purpose ?
“because they will finally realize and finally respect the immense power Russia can throw against them.”
Is that their purpose ?
” there’s absolutely no doubt that the majority opinion will stubbornly refuse to change one iota”
Is that their purpose ?
Making conclusions are meaningless in any lateral process.
“”And BTW, who are you to judge..”
Well that is the illusion called “Representative democracy”.
Enjoy your dancing round and round the garden like a teddy bear.
West has a new secret weapon. It is called the “biden drool shell”. Designed to demoralize the Russians to the point that they can no longer pull the trigger. Personally, I can’t even give directions anymore.
Larry…I have posted a suggested terms of surrender for some time. Given the previous ‘peace’ terms, such as the Minsk Agreements, ask Davis what his conditions would be that would also be acceptable to the RF. Also, ask him which of the following terms of surrender he would consider acceptable, and which he thinks will become reality.
1.- The four most eastern oblasts, and the four oblasts immediately to the west of those four, are inducted into the Russian Federation.
2.- An election is held in what remains of Ukraine for the governing of Ukraine. Candidiates for office must publicly swear that they will never allow foreign troops or weapons on Ukraine soil, on pain of death.
3.- Reparations are paid by the United States and the EU to Donetsk and Lugansk for the destruction caused to them by Ukraine, which is the proxy of the United States/NATO and EU. Reparations are paid to the Russian Federation for the sabotage of the Nordstream pipeline.
4.- All funds and property of the Russian Federation are returned to the Russian Federation, with suitable interest for the loss.
5.- The United Nations hears the evidence of the bioweapons labs. The United Nations, in open session, votes on what the consequences should be for the perpetrators of the bioweapons labs.
6.- War crimes trials are held, in Donetsk, for the all the perpetrators of the bioweapons labs in Ukraine. These perpetrators include western officials.
7.- War crimes trial are held, in Lugansk, for the Nazi leaders of Ukraine, including but not limited to Zelenskyy, Zhalushny, Budanov, the perpetrators of the Odessa Trade Council massacre, and leaders of the Azov Battalion, Right Sector and other neo-Nazi groups. War crimes trials are held for any western leaders who materially aided Ukraine.
8.- The statue to Stepan Bandera in the center of Lviv is torn down in a public ceremony attended by Zelenskyy and other neo-nazi Ukrainian officials.
9.- Zelenskyy signs the surrender agreement in Kiev. He reads it aloud, and states the unconditional surrender of Ukraine. The text of the surrender agreement must appear in the leading newspapers in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, London, New York and Washington, D.C.
Those poorly performing Russians:
Established the land bridge to Crimea
Took Mariupol
Took Berdyansk
Took Popasnaya
Took Severdonestsk, Lizichansk, and all of Luhansk Oblast
Took Soledar
Took Bakhmut.
Looks like they do well on offense. As far as Kharkov, one of the most unreported events was the trip of Gerhardt Schroeder to Moscow and the subsequent withdraw of contract soldiers, whose term expired, Wagner, and Chechyans, forces replaced by territorial defense. Russia basically shutdown the war in June, 2022.
It is possible that Russia might surrender if Cookies Nuland were to bring some really delicious, unbelievable, cannot refuse cookies. Nuland is after all the master cookie chef.
I think there is a (moderate) stand to be taken for Col. Davis. He has not really switched stance. Since the beginning of the war, he’s firmly in the “Ukraine can’t win” camp
Here are some of his articles :
– Can Western Tanks, Artillery, and Missiles Save Ukraine? Don’t Count on It. (April 2022)
– War in Ukraine Reality Check: Combat Fundamentals Still Favor Russia (May 2022)
– There Is No Military Path for Ukraine To ‘Defeat’ Russia (June 2022)
– In Ukraine’s Kherson Offensive, an Echo of a U.S. Military Fiasco (September 2022)
– Calling Russia a Weak State with a Garbage Military Is a Mistake (November 2022)
– Giving Ukraine Modern NATO Weapons Is No Game Changer (January 2023)
– Ukraine’s Long-Expected Offensive: Why It Won’t Beat Putin (May 2023)
– Ukraine’s Chances of Victory in 2023 are Vanishingly Small (June 2023)
– The Hard Reality: Ukraine’s Last-Gasp Offensive Has Failed (August 2023)
He still pays lip service to the “heroic Ukrainians”, “bad Putin”, blah blah blah, but deep down, he’s a realist and knows that Ukraine has lost.
I think he just tries to explain the truth in words and concepts somewhat more palatable to his rabidly indoctrinated audience.
It doesn’t really work because he’s consistently savaged as a Putin troll in the comments of his website.
It is truly amazing to me to see professional military people, who should know better, continue to spout nonsense.
My Two-Cent Prediction: This ends with “Ukraine” as a land-locked rump state administered by Poland and Hungary (each taking their ethnic/historical enclaves). No way Russia takes the Western Ukrainian oblasts “on their balance sheet” as Martyanov would say. Russia won’t care who’s in Kiev as long as they behave themselves. Russia will get whatever it wants out of this because it has the military capability to do so and the West can do nothing to prevent it short of committing nuclear suicide. And no, I don’t think it would be mutual. If the S-500 can intercept a hypersonic missile(apparently it did in recent testing), there’s every chance it can intercept an ICBM. What a finality – the US neocons try to use a nuke but it gets intercepted and then D.C. disappears.
Larry, do you have the missing F-35 in your basement?
That story is strange, they should have a radar track. And he wasn’t flying alone. His wingman would have certainly followed the aircraft. Perhaps it went out to sea. Otherwise, maybe someone took control remotely, which scared the pilot into ejecting, then flew it to Cuba for shipment to China.
I hope they demand the pilot file a missing gear report like all other Marines when they lose something.
Incompetency in the military is not stange at all, quite the contrary. It would be strange if they handled the whole incident properly.
I sometimes wonder if all these retired Generals and Colonels in the West have actually even read the basics like the Art of War. They keep constantly underestimating their enemies and overestimating their own capabilities. Russia grows stronger the longer a conflict goes on, they are a resilient people, as most people tend to be when they are faced with destruction, which is exactly what some in the West are calling for with ideas of Balkanization for the Russian federation.
“I sometimes wonder if all these retired Generals and Colonels in the West have actually even read the basics like the Art of War.”
They are not allowed to read Chinese propaganda.
“… which is exactly what some in the West are calling for with ideas of Balkanization for the Russian federation.”
Idea of carving up Russia is what started the whole thing, 30+ years ago. Yugoslavia was just dress rehearsal for the real deal.
They’ve all read it and they’ve all forgotten it, in order to advance in the ranks. They have mastered Machiavelli, The Prince.
Z will not surrender because the Neo-Nazis will assassinate him, and the military is infiltrated with nazis so the military cannot not defend Z to save Ukraine. And perhaps this is Russia’s strategy: let Ukraine commit seppuku and let all of them kill each other.
Davis’ presumption that Russia has lost half its tanks (12,000 including soviet era storage) and 300,000 troops goes against cavoli’s (NATO supreme commander) statement to the senate arm committee hearing where he’s on record stating “Russia has received minimal damage, in fact, it’s army now is larger than before the war”.
NATO’s second in command, forgive me as I forgot his name, stated on the record “the level of destruction being achieved is unfathomable in this war and we’re completely unprepared for this”.
Forgive me, Mr. Davis, but the latter doesn’t exactly make the case that Russia has lost half its tanks and 300,000 troops. Perhaps he meant this was Ukraine’s losses.
I am not finding any confirmation on this which was on X by pro-Uke posters:
Ukraine is claiming they have sunk or heavily damaged all of the Black Sea Fleet’s area air defense ships. The western Black Sea is now a PSU free fly zone at altitudes under VKS S-400 radar coverage
Ukrainian representive of Ukrainian Military Intelligence Andrii Yusov, they’ve sunk the Russian Navy ship “Sergey Kotov” in the Black Sea.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1703882901790601588?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1703882901790601588%7Ctwgr%5E7d95195259ba5c6c1355bc9ed48afa5a0f2cc72b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chiefsplanet.com%2FBB%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D342625page%3D3450
Yes all of ships, because that was the last one. They had no frigates or corvettes. There was only one patrol ship left, and that one is gone now. Also, all the fighter jets are gone for some reason, and Ukies got air superiority now. /s
Ukro-propaganda outlet know as Wikipedia says that it is not even the only ship of its class:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_22160_patrol_ship
Tatal meu a fost unul din sefii Securitatii intre 1950 si 1958 si din motive de siguranta prefer sa imi pastrez anonimatul. Pentru cine nu stie in anul 1951 tatal meu a fost prin functie cel mai important sef din Securitate si in caz de razboi intra ca al treilea om din Republica Populara Romania: seful informatiilor din Directia de Graniceri.
Zelenski a reeditat o schema incercata de sovietici pentru dezintegrarea Romaniei din 1951 dupa oferta lui Tito catre Stalin , cand Tito i-a cerut Banatul romanesc lui Stalin in schimbul trecerii Iugoslaviei de partea moscovei. Schema era simpla si prevedea exterminarea minoritatii sarbe prin deportarea in Baragan in vederea obtinerii unei invazii a armatei iugoslave. Schema a fost blocata de tatal meu prin intrarea minoritatii sarbe sub protectia directiilor militare romanesti in vederea evitarii declansarii unei invazii si in vederea evitarii dezintegrarii in blaturile si in intelegerile secrete sovieto-iugoslave.
Zelenski a condus un genocid etnic in Donbas si era constient ca va urma o invazie a armatei ruse pentru ca asta a si intetionat de la inceput. Zelenski a lasat in urma lui un cimitir cu copiii omorati in Donbas si asa ceva reprezinta o crima de razboi care va provoca o invazie a armatei ruse la fel cum se stia bine in Securitate ca exterminarea minoritatii sarbe inseamna o invazie a armatei iugoslave si pierderea Banatului romanesc.
In disperare, tatal meu a initiat executiile in vederea blocarii declansarii razboiului si al unei invazii a armatei iugoslave cu sprijinul tacit al armatei sovietice si in schimb Zelesnki i-a protejat de justitie pe autorii masacrului din Odesa cu scopul de a obtine furie la Moscova si un motiv in plus de invazie.
Pentru cine nu stie ,,Tovarasi faceti ce rtebuie, nu exista nimic. Romania are un singur prieten, Marea Neagra: reprezinta un cod in Securitate pentru eliminarile in vederea blocarii declansarii unui razboi si in vederea blocarii declansarii unei invazii ce ar fi adus armata sovietica la Marea Adriatica in schimbul anexarii Banatului roamanesc de catre Iugoslavia, un cosmar la momentul respectiv pentru NATO si pentru CIA….
Zelenski e creirul declansarii invaziei sovietice pentru care in anii 50 tatal meu l-ar fi executat pe loc. A si facut asa ceva de multe ori… pentru care avea si o vorba: ,,Am lichidat mai multi ofiteri de Securtate decat tot anticomunistii la un loc ….” radea in fata mortii , inainte de moarte, pentru cum a blocat planurile de invazie si intelegerile secrete sovieto-iugoslave in executii….
People should study the Russian strategy in 1941 because I see many similarities in this current war.
To be concise the Russians started WW2 with more tanks than the rest of the world combined. 12,000 T-26, 8300 BT … 23,000 in total including a smattering of T-34’s and KV’s.
They sacrificed these tanks to buy time to move arms production east to the Urals ahead of the Germans and had those factories back up and running by mid 1942.
They finished the war with the largest tank force in the world producing over 120,000 armoured vehicles from mid 42 to may 1945 and no prewar tanks.
When the Russians didn’t scare a revolt of the Russian population of Ukraine in February 2022 and the west rearmed the Ukrainians the Russians went on the defensive and concentrated on mobilizing their economy to produce weapons.
I think they see this as a fight to the finish with NATO. They’re going to use up every T-55 , grad MLRS and D-20/30 howitzer keeping NATO / Ukraine busy while they build up a modern army designed to take on NATO proper just like they did with Germany in 1941 / 42.
Now the history of WW2 written in the west tell the story of the German perspective of the war … bumbling Russians, asiatic hoards etc. but from the Russian perspective they sacrificed a lot to kill 750,000 irreplacable German professional soldiers and weakened the Germans to the point where they were able to overrun them and drive them back to Berlin.
That’s 17 months of holding off the Germans and degrading their forces then 30 months to defeat the Germans with their newly formed armies.
So we are 19 months into this conflict. From the western perspective the Russians are again a bumbling hoard losing all their equipment and the Russian are quietly ramping up their arms production with input from the Chinese, North Koreans and Iranians.
It’s going to be very interesting what happens next. History doesn’t repeat … it rhymes.
Let’s be real now.
“……America’s feckless attempt to put a cap on oil prices.”
Is there ANY American oil company that wants to put a cap on oil prices? I don’t think so, and no American oil stock owner wants a price cap either. Drill Baby Drill is going to cost money, and oil drilling is the only industry that hasn’t been ship overseas for strategic reasons.
The EU is now the proud new owner of US overpriced oil and gas bills. We have the military in place there in the EU to make certain sure (as Victoria Nuland said) F*ck the EU so that it can now pay the US for its high priced energy resources. Yeah, big oil is glad that Russia pipeline is nothing more than “a big hunk of metal at bottom of the sea” too.
Trump is going to waltz in to “stop the killing and start the drilling and EU billing.
Russia now has a battle hardened army. Poke the bear is a fool’s game. Only the fools have much to answer for in this world and are displaying like the cornered rats that they are. Even unreasonable people would be having a come to Jesus moment right about now, but these fools are not even so able. Had their blossom dreams not gone awry we would currently be dead or in chains. That was the plan. Forget not that which they do, but also that which they would have done.